Freeport shares tumble, copper futures rise on guidance cut due to Indonesia mine accident

Key Points

• Freeport-McMoRan shares fell over 13% after a guidance cut due to an accident at its Indonesia mine, which is expected to significantly reduce copper revenue.
• Copper futures rose by 3.8% to $4.82 a pound, as analysts predict they could climb above $5 imminently, driven by the production stoppage in Indonesia.
• The mine accident involved approximately 800,000 metric tons of material and resulted in two fatalities, with five workers still missing.
• Despite the negative implications for Freeport's operations, the production disruption may lead to higher copper prices, benefiting the company's other mining efforts in the Americas.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Shares of Freeport-McMoRan tumbled Wednesday after the Phoenix-based miner said it expected a significant decline in third-quarter copper revenue due to an accident at its Indonesia mine earlier this month that will keep much of it shut down into the first half of 2026.

Freeport said in a release Wednesday that it expects consolidated sales of copper to be 4% lower than its July estimates. Gold sales are expected to be 6% lower than previous estimates.

Shares of Freeport fell more than 13% at midday, to $39.31 each.

Copper futures rose 3.8% to $4.82 a pound at midday, with analysts at Jeffries saying they expect prices to climb above $5 per pound “imminently."

On Sept. 8 about 800,000 metric tons of “wet material” entered the Grasberg Block Cave mine, moving rapidly to different levels and killing two workers, whose bodies were located on Saturday. Five others remain missing and search efforts are ongoing, the company said.

Freeport said the Big Gossan and Deep MLZ mines, which were unaffected by the flood, could restart operations by the middle of the fourth quarter of this year, with a phased restart of the Grasberg Block Cave mine beginning in the first half of 2026.

The Jeffries analysts noted that while the disruption was a “clear negative for the company and its equity value,” a guidance cut had been expected and some of it already reflected in Freeport’s share price. They added that the production stoppage in Indonesia should lead to higher prices for copper, which would benefit Freeport’s operations in the Americas.

Copper prices had risen to record highs this year, nudging toward $6 per pound in late July before the Trump administration surprisingly exempted refined copper from a 50% tariff. Copper futures quickly tumbled from $5.59 to $4.35 per pound on the announcement.

Copper is critical to global energy infrastructure, used in cords for electronic devices, transmission lines, batteries, and LED lights. A global shift to cleaner energy technology, such as solar power, had already boosted demand, which is expected to keep growing as the development of artificial intelligence technology puts more of a strain on data centers and the energy grid.