UnitedHealth falls short of second quarter expectations and offers weak outlook for 2025

Key Points

• UnitedHealth's second-quarter earnings disappointed analysts, reporting adjusted earnings of $4.08 per share, below expectations of $4.48, while total revenue rose to $111.6 billion.
• The company has revised its 2025 earnings forecast to at least $16 per share, down from an initial expectation of up to $30 per share due to rising medical costs.
• UnitedHealth has faced significant pressure from soaring medical expenses, with medical costs rising 20% in the second quarter, impacting overall profitability.
• Company shares fell 4% following the earnings announcement and have declined 44% since the start of the year, in contrast to the broader market's gains.

UnitedHealth delivered disappointing second-quarter earnings and went conservative with its 2025 forecast as soaring medical costs continue to swamp insurers.

The health care giant said Tuesday expenses that have jumped beyond what it expected when it set coverage prices will continue to pressure its performance. But CEO Stephen Hemsley told analysts the company expects a return to “solid but moderate earnings growth” in 2026.

UnitedHealth now expects adjusted earnings of at least $16 per share in 2025 after withdrawing its previous forecast in May. It had started 2025 with expectations of making up to $30 per share.

For the full year, analysts forecast earnings of $20.64 per share, according to the data firm FactSet.

UnitedHealth Group Inc. runs one of the nation’s largest health insurance and pharmacy benefits management businesses. The Eden Prairie, Minnesota, company also operates a growing Optum business that provides care and technology support.

In May, the company withdrew its 2025 forecast due to higher-than-expected medical costs, and CEO Andrew Witty departed the company abruptly. He was replaced by Chairman Stephen Hemsley, who was the UnitedHealth CEO for more than a decade until 2017.

That came after the company took the rare step in April of cutting its forecast. That pushed UnitedHealth shares down $130 in their worst single-day performance in over 25 years.

Hemsley promised in June that UnitedHealth would establish a “prudent” 2025 earnings outlook when it detailed second-quarter results. He said Tuesday that the company had made operational mistakes and errors in setting its pricing for this year, but those problems were getting “needed attention.”

Company leaders noted, for instance, that they expected costs to grow 5% for its Medicare Advantage business, and they have actually advanced more than 7%.

Several other insurers have said this month that they also have been hit by medical costs that are growing faster than expected. Companies have seen a rise in expensive emergency rooms visits, and UnitedHealth leaders said Tuesday that doctors are billing for more tests and services during those visits than they anticipated.

Insurers also are dealing with growing prescription drug costs, especially from expensive treatments for cancer and obesity, as well as gene therapy.

In the second quarter, UnitedHealth reported adjusted earnings of $4.08 per share on $111.6 billion in total revenue. Analysts expected earnings of $4.48 per share on $111.5 billion in revenue, according to FactSet.

The company's profit fell 19% to $3.41 billion even as revenue rose 13%. Medical costs, the company's biggest operating expense, jumped 20% to $78.6 billion in the quarter.

UnitedHealth shares dropped 4% Tuesday to $270.

That price topped $630 last November to reach a new all-time high. But the stock has mostly shed value since December, when UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was fatally shot in midtown Manhattan on his way to the company’s annual investor meeting.

Shares were already down 44% so far this year as of Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, of which UnitedHealth is a member, had climbed 5%.