Fulton Financial Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 19, 2022

Key Takeaways

  • Neutral Sentiment: Phil Wenger will retire as CEO effective December 31, with Curt Myers succeeding him as Chairman, CEO and President to maintain leadership continuity.
  • Positive Sentiment: Operating EPS reached an all-time high of $0.48 in Q3, up $0.06 sequentially and $0.03 year-over-year, driven by rising interest rates and the Prudential Bancorp acquisition.
  • Positive Sentiment: Net interest margin widened 50 basis points to 3.54% as loan yields expanded faster than deposit costs during the quarter.
  • Negative Sentiment: Operating expenses rose due to wage inflation, elevated performance-based compensation accruals and merger-related costs, while credit loss provisions increased to $19 million.
  • Negative Sentiment: Organic deposits declined by $167 million as customers tapped noninterest-bearing and time deposits amid inflationary spending, despite a $400 million boost from the acquisition.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Fulton Financial Q3 2022
00:00 / 00:00

There are 11 speakers on the call.

Operator

Your host for today's conference call is Phil Wenger, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Joining Phil are Kurt Myers, President and Chief Operating Officer and Mark McCollum, Chief Financial Officer. Our comments today will refer to the financial information and related slide presentation included with our earnings announcement, which we released yesterday afternoon. These documents can be found on our website at fult.com by clicking on Investor Relations and then on News. The slides can also be found on the Presentations page under the Investor Relations website.

Operator

On this call, representatives of Fulton may make forward looking statements with respect to Fulton's financial condition, results of operations and business. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors and actual results could differ materially. Please refer to the Safe Harbor statement on forward looking statements in our earnings release and on Slide 2 of today's presentation for additional information regarding these risks, uncertainties and other factors. Fulton undertakes no obligation other than as required by law to update or revise any forward looking statements. In discussing Fulton's performance, representatives of Fulton may refer to certain non GAAP financial measures.

Operator

Please refer to the supplemental financial information included with Fulton's earnings announcement released yesterday and Slides 10 through 13 of today's presentation for a reconciliation of those non GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures. Now, I would like to turn the call over to your host, Phil Wenger.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Matt. Good morning, everyone. Earlier this year, I announced my intent to retire as CEO of Fulton Financial on December 31. So since this will be my last earnings call with you, I wanted to take a minute to share my appreciation for your coverage of Fulton Financial. I have appreciated Your interest in our company and the diligence you have displayed in learning about the company's activities to be able to provide Sound advice to your investors.

Speaker 1

I've been with Bolton for 43 years serving as CEO for the last decade. And during that time, it has been my honor and pleasure to have worked with the thousands of Fulton team members who fully understand what it takes to fulfill our company's purpose of changing lives for the better. As you know, Curt Myers will succeed me as Chairman, CEO and President on January 1, 2023. With Curt at the helm and the talented members of our senior management team adding their expertise, I am confident that Fulton will be in good hands. I look forward to continuing to serve on the holding company and bank boards of directors after I retire.

Speaker 1

And now I'll turn the program over to Curt.

Speaker 2

Well, thank you, Phil, and good morning, everyone. Before I discuss the quarter, I want to thank Phil for the many contributions he has made to strengthen our company and for the legacy that he leaves behind. During his decade as CEO, Phil enhanced our company's financial strength by growing the bank significantly, doubling the quarterly run rate for operating earnings from $39,200,000 a quarter to the $80,500,000 this past quarter. This improvement allowed us to nearly double our quarterly common cash dividend from $0.08 to $0.15 per share over that time, plus provide shareholders with an annual special dividend almost every year over his tenure. Phil also focused on shaping our culture and empowering our team to change lives for the better.

Speaker 2

He led the formation of our Fulton Forward initiative and the establishment and funding of the Fulton Forward Foundation. The foundation helps improve the communities we serve in the areas of Affordable Housing and Homeownership, Job Training and Workforce Development, Financial Education and Economics Empowerment and Diversity, Equity and Inclusion. Phil executed on key strategic initiatives by consolidating our 6 subsidiary banks into Fulton Bank to improve our operating efficiency and position the company for growth. And he also resumed our status as an active acquirer through the purchase of a number of investment advisory firms as well as Prudential Bancorp this past quarter. There are many more examples, but as you can see Phil has made a tremendous impact and I along with other members of our leadership team are committed to driving future success.

Speaker 2

Going forward, we will continue to lead your company prudently, pursue smart growth and make the changes necessary for future success. We will remain committed to our customers, committed to our communities, committed to our employees and committed to you, our shareholders. Thank you, Phil, for all that you have done for Fulton Financial and for me personally. Your positive impact is a lasting one that will be felt for many years to come. Now I'd like to switch gears And let's talk about Fulton's Q3 performance.

Speaker 2

The Q3 of 2022 was another good result and we are pleased with our overall performance. Operating earnings per diluted share, which excludes merger related expenses of the Prudential Bancorp acquisition, were $0.48 and represent an increase of $0.06 over operating earnings last quarter and $0.03 above the year ago period. Operating earnings this quarter represent an all time high for Fulton. Several factors help drive this performance. Our net interest income benefited significantly from rising interest rates.

Speaker 2

We saw solid loan growth overall. We have the 1st full quarter effect of the Prudential Bancorp acquisition and fee income was consistent with the prior quarter. These positives were offset by some of the realities of the current economic environment. Expenses continue to migrate higher due to wage pressure and elevated performance based compensation accruals and our provision for loan losses increased length quarter. As of July 1, we completed the acquisition of Prudential Bancorp.

Speaker 2

And in early November, we expect the conversion to occur. We're excited to welcome Prudential Bank's team members and customers into the Fulton family. And we believe our opportunities for continued growth in the Philadelphia region remains strong. With the Prudential Bancorp acquisition closed, we have doubled our loan portfolio and expanded our deposit base threefold in the Philadelphia market. Turning to the quarterly business results, our overall loan growth was strong for the quarter at 776,000,000 were 16.4% annualized.

Speaker 2

Excluding our acquisition of Prudential Bancorp, loans still grew $232,000,000 or 5 point 2% annualized. Commercial loans were essentially flat for the Q3 as we experienced consistent originations but accelerated prepayments. Consumer loans still produce solid overall growth as we continue to book adjustable rate mortgages in the portfolio and experience slower prepayment speeds. Turning to deposits. On an ending balance basis, we achieved total growth for the quarter of $233,000,000 Included in this total was $400,000,000 of customer deposits from the Prudential Bancorp acquisition.

Speaker 2

So excluding that impact, we did see of $167,000,000 during the period driven by declines in non interest bearing demand accounts as well as time deposits. To date, declines in deposit balances are driven by inflationary spending pressure, rebuilding of inventories and CapEx spending and are not related to customer attrition. Commercial and consumer households both Showed modest organic growth during the quarter, but a decrease in average balances per account led to an overall decline in deposits. From a rate perspective, we continue to actively monitor and price our deposits in order to both retain and grow deposit customers. Moving to our fee income businesses.

Speaker 2

We were pleased with our overall performance despite a challenging economic environment for some of our businesses. Total fee based revenue was up $771,000 from the prior quarter or 5.3% annualized. Our card and payments businesses grew during the quarter as did our capital markets. These positives offset a decline in wealth management and Mortgage Banking Revenues. Moving to credit, our provision for credit losses of $19,000,000 included $8,000,000 related to our acquisition of of Prudential Bank, Bancorp and the CECL day 1 charge.

Speaker 2

Excluding this, our provision increased by 11,000,000 despite showing net charge offs for the quarter of only $100,000 Factors contributing to this increase include growth in the overall portfolio, a few accounts migrating to non performing as well as an increase in the reserves of our office building portfolio. So now let me turn the call over to Mark to discuss our financial performance and outlook in a little more detail.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Curt, and good morning to everyone on the call. Unless I know it otherwise, the quarterly comparisons I will discuss are with the Q2 of 2022. And the loan and deposit growth numbers I will be referencing are annualized percentages on a linked quarter basis. Starting on Slide 3, operating earnings per diluted share this quarter were $0.48 on operating net income available to common shareholders of $80,500,000 This is up from $0.42 in the Q2 of 2022. The operating results exclude $15,500,000 of merger related charges reported during the quarter with $7,500,000 of this reported in operating expenses and intangible amortization and $8,000,000 reported as additional provision for credit losses under CECL Merger Accounting rules.

Speaker 3

Moving to the balance sheet, commercial lending excluding the impact of Prudential was relatively flat linked quarter. Within commercial, organic loan growth was $51,000,000 within C and I lending, while commercial real estate declined $71,000,000 during the period. Commercial line utilization increased slightly during the quarter to 22.5%. Consumer and small business lending produced organic growth excluding Prudential of $262,000,000 or 17% during the quarter. Residential mortgage loans grew $210,000,000 as we saw homebuyer shift to adjustable rate products during the period.

Speaker 3

Application volumes did decline 35% linked quarter due to the sharp rise in interest rates, so we would expect residential loan growth to moderate going forward. As Curt noted, total deposits grew $233,000,000 during the quarter and excluding the acquisition of Prudential Bancorp, Total deposits declined $167,000,000 consistent with broader market trends. You should expect to see our deposit betas increase at a faster pace in future quarters versus what we have seen thus far in the cycle. With respect to the investment portfolio, Balances declined modestly during the period, decreasing $181,000,000 to $3,900,000,000 at quarter end. As part of our overall asset liability strategy, we've opted to pare back on securities growth in the near term.

Speaker 3

Putting together all of those balance sheet trends on Slide 4, our net interest income was 216,000,000 a $48,000,000 increase linked quarter. This increase was a function of both sharply rising interest rates as well as the Prudential Bancorp acquisition. Loan yields expanded 65 basis points during the period, increasing to 4.21% versus 3.56% last quarter. Our cost of deposits increased 7 basis points to 18 basis points during the quarter. Therefore, our net interest margin for the 3rd quarter was 3.4% 3.54% versus 3.04% last quarter.

Speaker 3

The 50 basis points of linked quarter increase resulted primarily from loan betas being higher than deposit betas during the period. Going forward, I would expect our net interest margin to expand with additional rate increases, but at a reduced rate due to both higher deposit betas as well as changes in the composition of our funding. Our loan to deposit ratio increased from 89.5% at June 30 to 92.1% currently. Kurt gave you an overview of our credit quality results. I would only add that our allowance for credit losses to total loans increased 4 basis points during the period ending at 1.35% at September 30.

Speaker 3

As always, our allowance for credit loss trends could change in future periods based on new loan origination volumes, our loan mix, net charge off activity and larger and longer term economic projections. Turning to Slide 6, I'll provide some additional color on fee income business results. Commercial banking fees grew $450,000 to $20,800,000 with increases in cash management and capital markets leading the way, driven by interest rate swap activity. Consumer banking fees grew $800,000 to $13,300,000 led by increases in payments and overdraft fees. As a reminder, in June, we announced some changes to our overdraft products and services.

Speaker 3

These changes will be effective in the Q4 of 2022. They're not expected to have a material impact to 2022 results less than $1,000,000 and this reduction is reflected in the 2022 guidance provided at the end of my comments. Wealth Management revenues declined during the quarter to $17,600,000 from $18,300,000 in the prior quarter. New business activity did continue with all of the revenue decline due to a decrease in the value of managed assets as of the beginning of the quarter. At September 30, the market value of assets under management and administration increased modestly to $12,700,000,000 up from $12,600,000,000 in the prior quarter.

Speaker 3

Mortgage banking revenues declined and were driven by a decline in mortgage loan sales, offset in part by an increase in gain on sale spreads to 202 basis points during the Q3 versus 190 basis points last quarter. Moving to Slide 7, non interest expenses excluding merger related charges were approximately $162,000,000 in the 3rd quarter, up $14,000,000 linked quarter. This increase was driven by the following factors: additional performance based compensation accruals of $2,600,000 additional expenses of $3,600,000 related to Prudential Bancorp, a $1,000,000 contribution to our Fulton Forward Foundation an additional calendar day during the Q3, which added approximately 1,300,000 and additional technology cost of $1,700,000 due to the timing of certain projects. A material amount of the cost savings in the Prudential Bancorp acquisition will not be realized until later in Q4 due to the timing of our systems conversion. We do expect operating costs to come down in the Q4 and this is reflected in our refreshed guidance at the end of my remarks.

Speaker 3

Slide 8 provides more detail on our capital ratios. As of September 30, we maintained solid cushions over the regulatory minimums and our bank and parent company liquidity remain very strong. Accumulated other comprehensive income decreased 100 $39,000,000 during the quarter. This impacted our tangible common equity ratio as well as our tangible book value per share, offset by strong net retained earnings. Our tangible common equity ratio was 6.7% atquarterend, down from 7% last quarter.

Speaker 3

Excluding the impact of AOCI, our tangible common equity ratio increased during the quarter to 8.3%, up from 8.2% at June 30. During the quarter, we did not repurchase any common shares. Our $75,000,000 share repurchase authorization remains in place before expiring at year end. With Prudential Bancorp now completed, We are currently weighing macroeconomic conditions and their possible impact on AOCI and tangible capital. As a result, We will likely pause until deeper in the

Operator

Q4 before we would

Speaker 3

consider repurchasing of common shares. On Slide 9, we are providing updated guidance for 2022. Our guidance now assumes a total of 125 basis points of additional Fed funds increases occurring in 2022 as follows: 75 basis points in November and 50 basis points in December. Based on those assumptions, I'll provide guidance as follows. We expect our net interest income on an FTE basis to be in the range of $770,000,000 to 780,000,000 We expect our non interest income, excluding securities gains, to be in the range of $225,000,000 to 230,000,000 We expect non interest expenses to be in the range of $615,000,000 to $620,000,000 for the year And note that this operating expense guidance excludes merger related charges related to the Prudential Bancorp acquisition.

Speaker 3

And lastly, we expect our effective tax rate to be in the range of 18% plus or minus for the year. Many of you look at pre provision net revenue or PPNR as a key metric to assess the profitability of core operations. Our version of this metric is included in the financial tables of our press release. PPNR has increased 25% year over year and 27% linked quarter. As a result of our 2021 balance sheet restructuring, earning asset growth over the past year and core margin expansion from our asset sensitive balance sheet.

Speaker 3

With that, we'll now turn the call over to the operator for your questions. Norman?

Speaker 4

Thank you. And our first question comes from Justin Crowley with Piper Stanley. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hey, guys. It's Frank Schiraldi. Good morning.

Speaker 2

Hey, Frank. Good morning.

Speaker 5

Morning. Just first, I want to congratulate Phil on his coming retirement as well. Phil, it's been a real pleasure and good luck with everything from here.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Frank.

Speaker 5

Just to follow-up on your comments, Mark, about the Growth in the card and payments business. Could you talk a little bit more about Opportunities there and whether you see that as a significant offset due to the change in overdraft that will flow through more in 2023.

Speaker 3

Yes, yes, I think we do, Frank. When you look at our payments businesses in total, I mean, they show up in a couple of lines on our income statement. But when you look The merchant and card within commercial banking as well as consumer card, that's a business that through 3 quarters is $40,000,000 in revenue for us. And so we think going forward that the changes to overdraft, again, less than a $1,000,000 this quarter, now we're implementing those sort of mid October. So if you annualize that, that gets to maybe around a $5,000,000 impact for next year.

Speaker 3

When we made that assumption for that guidance, that was based off of incident levels that were occurring earlier in the year. And as you saw here in the Q3, We did have an increase in overdraft just based on increased incident levels. So I think exactly where that number ends up for next year and will be reflected in our 2023 guidance that we give in January. But definitely, as you've seen, the momentum in Both consumer and commercial card, those are both up between 5% well, 4% 8 Over last year and we think that there will be continued growth as the economy continues to reopen.

Speaker 5

Okay, great. So the real driver there, I guess, is overdraft income then, is that right? Not overdraft income, interchange rather?

Speaker 3

Correct. Yes, yes, yes, interchange on merchant and then on the consumer side, also based on just instant level with Usage.

Speaker 2

And Frank, it's Curt. I would just add too, we're really focused on growing the customer base, adding accounts, adding transactional accounts that add overall growth in all of those transactional fee areas that help offset That lost income in overdraft, if you see, linked quarter overdraft was up. It was up because of increased accounts and increased activity within those accounts.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then just given your commentary around buybacks and TCE levels, Wondered your updated thoughts on further M and A here. Is that something that's also unlikely in the near term, just given Likely impact of marks on things like TCE. What's your appetite there for further M and A?

Speaker 2

Yes, Frank, I think it depends on opportunities. Obviously, it is a factor as we look at M and A going Forward. But we will look at our good M and A opportunities and work through the math on that. We'd like to continue to be active at least in smaller transactions as we look forward given some of the dynamics in the marketplace.

Speaker 5

Okay. Could you just remind me, is there a threshold in terms of the tangible book dilution that you'd be willing To take with the deal?

Speaker 3

Yes, Frank, that really always depends obviously on the relative Size and then the relative earnings accretion that comes back from that. We've been wanting to announce tangible Dilution earned back within 3 years generally, I mean in the Prudential deal, I think it ended up being 1.1 years. And But out of the gate dilution is going to be a function of the size of the deal. If we stick to that sort of $1,000,000,000 to $3,000,000,000 transaction size, then you're generally Going to see dilution in that kind of 1% to 4% kind of range and earn back within 3 years generally.

Speaker 5

Great. Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Brett.

Speaker 4

Thank you for your question. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Daniel DiMao with Raymond James. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Good morning, guys.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Ben. Good morning, Ben.

Speaker 7

So we just starting on deposit betas. Mark, I get your commentary on expecting those to accelerate going forward. But can you just Let us know kind of how you're thinking about what those may be or what the Your forecasts are internally kind of through the cycle. How are you thinking about those or how we should be thinking about them?

Speaker 3

Yes. Through the cycle, I think we're going to be In the 30% range, but to get to 30% range from where we are today, depending on how you calculate it, if you're just looking at Quarterly levels that we report, we've gone from 11 basis points to 18 basis points. So that's 7 bps on 300 bps of rate moves. That's a beta Kind of at least on a quarterly average basis of 2.3% to date. So that would imply that to get to a 30% beta, we'd obviously We'll be ramping that up a lot more in the back half of the cycle.

Speaker 3

And when I say cycle, I guess, I usually think of it as kind of a full year after The Fed would reach a terminal Fed funds rate.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you. And then I guess just Not meaningful numbers by any means, but non accruals have ticked up for a couple of quarters in a row here. It looks like this quarter, it was Primarily in commercial real estate.

Speaker 7

I was curious if you have any more color on the type of credits there that drove that and then how you feel about the rest of that book?

Speaker 2

Yes, Danny, it's Curt. Just a little more color. As we look throughout this year, we had an uptick last Quarter and uptick this quarter as well. It's really been individual accounts. We have account in healthcare.

Speaker 2

We have account in C and I and an office account that are the bigger numbers in there as we look through the overall year. And they tend to be individual accounts with Supply chain issues or leasing issues, things like that. So that's really what's driven the non accrual increase as we monitor those portfolios. Office overall referenced on the last quarter, relationships over $10,000,000 That portfolio aggregated to about $560,000,000 65 percent loan to value. That portfolio stands at $553,000,000 at the end of this quarter.

Speaker 2

We continue to closely I'll monitor that as leases come up and the composition of that office space changes. We do expect certain accounts to have challenges. So that's the portfolio that we're paying particular attention to.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's great. Thanks, Curt. And then lastly, just in terms of reserves, just curious How you think about the amount of qualitative within that the total bucket in terms of how much maybe wiggle room you'll have to Adjust those numbers when we start to get changes in macro forecasts? Thanks.

Speaker 7

Well,

Speaker 3

yes, Danny. I mean, overall, we have qualitative factors on several items. We've taken since we've implemented CECL. I mean, we had COVID reserves, Related reserves at one point qualitative and currently we do have an overlay Qualitative reserves related to our office portfolio and we'll continue to monitor that. And if we think it's prudent to add more in future periods, we will.

Speaker 3

But based on our Best estimate of the economic outlook today and with the overlays that we have as part of that as of Except 30, we feel that the reserves are at the right level.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thanks for the question there. Thanks for the answers guys. Appreciate it. That's all for me.

Speaker 2

Thank you very much.

Speaker 4

Thank you for your question. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Chris McGratty with KBW. Your line is now open.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning. Mark, maybe a question for you on just deposits. It's the $64,000 question at the industry level. Can you just help us dig into what At this point might be risk of outflow or I guess further migration, just trying to get a sense of balance sheet size.

Speaker 3

Yes. So I think our loan to deposit ratio, I think it's safe to say that that's going to continue to drift upward over the next couple of quarters. One of the things, Chris, when you look at the Q3 for us, We have historically have a municipal deposit portfolio that fluctuates between about Historically between $1,600,000,000 $2,200,000,000 So generally from trough to peak and you'd see that Peak in the Q3, there'd be about a $600,000,000 increase in September. That was about half that this year. We felt that we had room to hold the line a little bit more on pricing in that portfolio.

Speaker 3

And as Result, we did not see as much inflow that we would see in past quarters. Now the million You said $64,000,000 I think it's $1,000,000 question or more. But is how much of that portfolio and others do we see outflows In the next couple of quarters, as Kurt referenced, we did see growth in both consumer and commercial households and both in consumer and commercial checking accounts from June to September. So what we're experiencing right now is not A loss of households or customers were experiencing loss of deposits per customer. And that's Again, really to be expected when the government stopped their stimulus and people were spending money again.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. And then maybe a follow-up. What's the I guess what's the monthly or quarterly cash that's coming off the bond portfolio? And is the assumption You just take all of that and put it into the loan book or you maintain the size of the investment portfolio?

Speaker 3

Yes, we've been letting That run down the last two quarters, it's not much, about $25,000,000 a month as our current cash flow. But our intent would be at least going into the Q4 here to continue to allow that to shrink a little bit. And then going into 2023, at some point, I'd expect us to then Just grow the portfolio commensurate with growth in overall earning assets.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you for your question. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from David Bishop with Hovde Group. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Yes. Good morning, gentlemen. Good morning. Good morning. Yes, the funding side of the equation, I think I heard maybe or maybe I misinterpreted on the preamble.

Speaker 6

Do you see in terms of as you move into 2023, The funding mix changing in terms of how you view funding anticipated loan growth. Do you do more wholesale or brokered or do You see the ability to fund that through sort of the commercial and consumer channels?

Speaker 3

I don't necessarily see a large Increase in wholesale deposit channels, but I would expect if you go back historically to sort of where we were Pre pandemic, before we received a lot of stimulus money, it's normal for us to either have both FHLB advances of which we've had none for a a couple of years running now and or overnight borrowings as well.

Speaker 6

Got it. And then as it relates to loan growth, it sounds like commercial line utilization up a little bit. As you look at your crystal ball and talk to the commercial clients as we had in the last quarter of the year and the next year, do you think you'll maintain or

Speaker 5

see a Potential pickup as

Speaker 6

you move into the Philly region with greater exposure on the commercial side or I'm just curious what you The outlook is there in terms of loan growth on the commercial side heading into next year.

Speaker 2

Yes. As we look at our pipeline quarter linked quarter Harrison, pipelines pretty much exactly the same as it was. We are seeing that Pull through rate of that pipeline, we expect to come down because we have customers saying, hey, I'm going to delay this project because of the cost, I can't get employees. There's still headwinds in spending on projects. So I think our pull through rate is going to come down.

Speaker 2

So our loan growth on the commercial side is, I think, going to be consistent as we look forward with the benefit of increased line utilization. At this point, really line utilization has not moved at all, but we're seeing the outflows of average balances on deposits, which customers are going to spend their own money first and then borrow. So that combination of Eventual increased line utilization and pretty consistent pipeline and origination, we think, is going to keep us in a consistent range of Organic Commercial

Speaker 6

Growth. Great. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Matthew Breese with Stephens. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Good morning. I was looking to touch on, Mark, your NIM commentary. First, what is kind of the NIM outlook Next couple of quarters, I know you'd mentioned that it would expand, but less than the pace we saw this quarter, it's just a pretty high bar considering the NIM was up 50 bps. And then secondly, given your rate outlook, when and where do you see the NIM kind of peaking in 2023?

Speaker 3

Yes. Great question, Matt. So for the month of September, margin was 3.60 And month of September obviously didn't have the full impact of the last 75 basis point rate increase. So you can expect to In the Q4, certainly margin expand some from the Q3. And again, with our assumption that There's going to be a 75 basis point rate increase coming here in a couple of weeks, 1st week of November.

Speaker 3

As far as when the margin Peaks, I think that's really depends on your bias of when you think terminal fed funds are achieved. If we hit a terminal fed funds rate in the Q1, which I think the dot plot currently shows that, then I'd That either deep in the Q1 or sometime in Q2, maybe on an individual month basis is when you'd see your max on margin and then as your deposit beta starts to catch up to that loan beta, which will be tempered somewhat by repricing of fixed rate assets that mature. But clearly, you're going to see deposit betas. We think right now in our own forecast, deposit betas will be faster than loan betas in the back half of 'twenty three.

Speaker 9

Okay. And maybe touching on the loan yield side of things. First, could you either provide a blended loan yield for The pipeline or maybe bucket by bucket CRE, C and I. What are you getting for loan yields today? And then the other question I had is, If I look at loan yields relative to Fed fund moves, you're looking at about a 75 basis point increase In loan yield, there was 300 basis points of Fed hikes.

Speaker 9

It feels a little light to me. When do you expect to see a ramp up in loan betas? And I think 50% of your book Floating rate. When do you expect to get to see the full reprice there?

Speaker 3

Yes. So a couple of things So on that. So first, with respect to our loan book, right, we have a $19,500,000,000 loan portfolio now. About $8,000,000,000 of that is variable. Dollars 1,000,000,000 of that it was hedged because we had kind of excess That's a sensitivity a month, year and a half ago.

Speaker 3

So you have about $7,000,000,000 which is about 42% or so of the loan book is truly variable. Then we got another $4,900,000,000 that is adjustable and then the remainder about $6,000,000,000 is fixed About a third of the portfolio is fixed. When you think about just to give you a sense on some what we're getting on new loan yields Coming in for I'm sorry, I'm just flipping here. In the 3rd quarter, Overall blended yield for new assets is in the 5% range. And take that Going back to where we were in the Q1, where it was blended closer to 3% for new originations in the 3rd quarter.

Speaker 3

So we're up pretty significantly. If I just take kind of either new originations or increases to existing loans, we've gone from blended around 3% range in the Q1 to blend it just to shade under 5% in the 3rd quarter.

Speaker 9

Right. Do you have the pipeline yields understanding what you already you put on the books this quarter?

Speaker 2

Yes, Matt, this is Curt. Going forward pipeline yield, we really don't track Yield in the pipeline until we get to the pricing point of new origination. The visibility there, our credit spread, we are pretty committed So what changes that is just the change in interest rate based on the underlying index. But we really don't track yield until it gets to commitment that is going into then the loan book

Speaker 10

Okay.

Speaker 2

Within that 3 to 30 days.

Speaker 9

Got it. Okay. Last one for me is just In a static environment, looking at the AOCI, is the recapture the $25,000,000 that Chris talked about a month? I'm just curious How much that you looked you would think you'd get back if nothing else changes on a quarterly basis?

Speaker 3

Yes. So we would recapture all of that AOCI hit, which over the last two quarters combined, I mean, in our prepared comments, was 130 $139,000,000 this quarter. Yes, dollars 139,000 this quarter and was roughly the same amount I think the last quarter as well. So of that amount, all other things being equal, you would get that back over the duration of the portfolio, which With rising rates, the effective duration of our investment book is going from like 4.5 years to 5.5 years. So all our things being equal, you would recoup that over 5 year period of time.

Speaker 3

So that's roughly $50,000,000 a year.

Speaker 6

Perfect. Okay.

Speaker 9

That's all I had. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 4

And our next question comes from Manuel Neves with D. A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Hey, good morning.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning, nice to meet you.

Speaker 10

I guess on the a little bit on the follow-up on the NIM trajectory. Is there a point where you take more steps to kind of protect it? Is it that more something a consideration when you feel that Fed

Speaker 3

So we are considering that and executing that in a small way It shaved some of the edges off of our net interest income volatility and give us protection on the downside. In addition to that, I mean, we still we have Several $1,000,000,000 of loans today that have floors. The number is about 6,500,000,000 today that already have floors. So we would be doing this cashless corridor to give us additional protection for loans that do not currently have the

Speaker 10

floor. Okay. Thanks, Steve. I appreciate that. As a follow-up, can you kind of describe where you're seeing the most competition in your markets On the deposit side?

Speaker 10

Yes, sure. More color

Speaker 2

on that. So we're really seeing it Across the board in each market, we monitor each of the markets very closely. Some markets are more CD driven, some are more money market So we manage that across the board. I would say the markets that are most Competitive are the markets that have banks. That Have a really high loan to deposit ratio and really need to grow deposits to fund Their loan growth, those markets tend to be more competitive right now.

Speaker 10

All right. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you. And I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the conference back over to Mr. Meyers for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Well, thank you again for joining us.

Speaker 4

The conference

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