Darden Restaurants Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
March 24, 2022

There are 19 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to the Darden Fiscal Year 2022 Third Quarter Earnings Call. Your lines have been placed on listen only until the question and answer session. The conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. I will now turn the call over to Mr.

Operator

Kevin Kalicak. Thank you. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jess, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating on today's call. Joining me on the call today are Gene Lee, Darden's Chairman and CEO Rick Cardenas, President and COO and Raj Vanam, CFO. As a reminder, comments made during this call will include forward looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. Those risks are described in the company's press release, which was distributed this morning and in its filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Speaker 1

We are simultaneously broadcasting a presentation during this call, which is posted in the Investor Relations section of our website at darden.com. Today's discussion and presentation include certain non GAAP measurements, and reconciliations of these measurements are included in the presentation. Any reference to pre COVID when discussing Q3 performance is a comparison to the Q3 of fiscal 2020. This is because last year's results are not meaningful due to the pandemic's impact on the business and the limited capacity environment that we operated in during the Q3 of fiscal 2021. We plan to release fiscal 2022 Q4 earnings on Thursday, June 23 before the market opens followed by a conference call.

Speaker 1

This morning, Gene will share some brief remarks. Rick will give an update on our operating performance. Raj will provide more detail on our financial results and an update to our fiscal 2022 financial outlook and then Gene will have some closing comments. Now, I'll turn the call over to Gene.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Our Q3 was one of stark contrast and I'm pleased with our performance in Highly volatile environment. Our team did a great job controlling what they could control. In fiscal December, we achieved record sales While meeting our internal profit expectations that were contemplated in the guidance we provided in December. However, in fiscal January, which is a high volume period for us.

Speaker 2

The Omicron variant significantly impacted consumer demand, restaurant staffing and operating expenses. We also experienced substantial weather impacts, all of which resulted in significantly lower sales and earnings than our internal expectations. Finally, as COVID cases declined and the operating environment normalized, sales improved throughout fiscal February And we had strong results that exceeded our internal expectations. Sales strength has continued into March. Quarter to date, Our average weekly sales are slightly ahead of our February actuals and these trends are incorporated in our guidance.

Speaker 2

When we talked last in December, we could not have predicted the impacts Omicron would have on our business. In fact, the dramatic Spike in cases created the most difficult operating environment since the initial onset of COVID 2 years ago. Rick will provide more details The impact it had in our staffing levels in a moment. Omicron also created additional pressure on expenses at the restaurant level As we saw higher levels of sick pay and we incurred significant overtime costs due to staffing shortages caused by exclusions. The January spike also caused further supply chain disruptions and we now expect inflation to be higher in Q4 than when we talked in December.

Speaker 2

We have implemented pricing actions to mitigate the impacts of rising costs and Raj will provide more detail and his remarks. We recognize that all of us in the industry face additional risk due to the current geopolitical environment such as higher inflation and further supply chain disruptions. However, I'm confident that Darden can compete effectively in any operating environment. We have a strong balance sheet and the right strategy in place driven by our 4 competitive advantages of significant scale, extensive data and insights, Rigorous strategic planning and our results oriented culture. And our brands are relentlessly focused executing our back to basics operating philosophy anchored in food, service and atmosphere.

Speaker 2

Now I'll turn it over to Rick.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Gene, and good morning, everyone. Our restaurant teams are focused on executing at the highest level and creating exceptional experiences for every one of our guests. That's why we are committed to doing what it takes to have the people we need and the products our guests expect when they choose to dine with us. From a people perspective, we are seeing positive momentum in applicant numbers and we feel much better about where we are now in terms of overall staffing. Our focus will continue to be on hiring and more importantly, training our new team members to reach the productivity level required to enable us To provide some context, at the peak, team member exclusions in January were 3 times higher than the monthly peak we experienced with Delta.

Speaker 3

While we did get some help as the CDC guidelines for exclusion were reduced from 10 to 5 days, 8% of our total workforce was excluded at some point during January. To put a finer point on this, In the month of January, we had over 13,000 team members excluded for a total of more than 65,000 exclusion days. I'm really proud of how our teams managed through the impacts of Omicron. As it moved across the country, we had some restaurants that were down as much as 40% of their staff And others that needed to limit their hours were temporarily moved to takeout only in order to operate effectively. As Omicron began to fade, Our teams kept the same level of focus on staffing and training to provide a great guest experience, which resulted in record sales for fiscal February.

Speaker 3

Valentine's Day was strong across all our brands, and that is a testament to the excellent job our operators are doing to ensure that restaurants are staffed and ready to serve our guests. In fact, on Valentine's Day, Olive Garden served more than 1,000,000 guests with approximately 35% of sales off premise. On the product side, our supply chain team is working hard leveraging our scale to ensure our restaurants have the products they need to serve our guests. Our inventory levels remain strong and some of the logistical challenges we had been dealing with began to improve in December. However, omicron impacted staffing for our supply chain partners in January as well.

Speaker 3

For labor intensive food production, this resulted in some reduced supply and increased costs at a time when protein prices Typically shift down from the heavy holiday buying season. Our distribution partners also experienced warehouse staffing challenges and driver shortages. Thus, we had expedited shipping costs and utilized more spot rate haulers in the quarter. Between those impacts In dealing with back to back winter storms, our team did an admirable job of maintaining supply continuity for our restaurant. Together,

Speaker 4

all of

Speaker 3

these factors increased our expected annual inflation and Raj will provide more color on that in a moment. To Go sales remained strong during the quarter as our brand and our guests continue to benefit from the strength of our digital platform. Off premise sales accounted for 30% of total sales at Olive Garden and 16% of total sales at Longhorn Steakhouse. Digital transactions accounted for 63% of all off premise sales during the quarter and 12% of Darden's total sales. Before I turn it over to Raj, I want to thank all of our team members who have shown tremendous resiliency and dedication in the face of constant change.

Speaker 3

2 years ago, we closed our dining rooms and did not know when we would be able to reopen them. Since then, we have dealt with multiple COVID waves, And our teams continue to demonstrate incredible flexibility and perseverance while creating exceptional guest experiences. Today, we are hopeful that we are near the end of the COVID-nineteen as a pandemic and that we will be able to live with it like we do with other viruses. As I visit our restaurants and talk with our team members, they say each day feels a little more normal and they are invigorated by the energy that has returned to our dining room. Our team members are the best in the business.

Speaker 3

I'm inspired by their winning spirit and confident that Darden's best days are ahead of us. Now, I'll turn it over to Raj.

Speaker 5

Thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone. Before I get into our results for the quarter, I want to expand on Gene and Rick's comments regarding the impact of Omicron and winter weather on our Q3 results. When looking at the fiscal months, actual sales for December February were close to our internal expectations that were contemplated in the financial outlook we provided in December. And we met our profitability expectations in December and exceeded them in February. In fiscal January, however, We were significantly below our sales and profitability expectations as COVID cases surged causing increased staffing shortages and reduced demand.

Speaker 5

We also experienced more severe winter weather than historical averages. As a result, sales were negatively impacted by over $100,000,000 This sales slowdown coupled with additional expenses related to sick pay over time and increased inflation Negatively impacted EPS by approximately $0.30 and was more than 100 basis points drag on EBITDA margins for this quarter. Now turning to the detailed results for the quarter. Total sales for Q3 were $2,400,000,000 41% higher than last year, driven by 38% same restaurant sales growth and the addition of 33 net new restaurants. Diluted net earnings per share from continuing operations were $1.93 Total EBITDA was $395,000,000 resulting in EBITDA margin of 16.1%, 50 basis points better than pre COVID.

Speaker 5

We continue to return significant cash to shareholders paying $141,000,000 in dividends and repurchasing $382,000,000 in shares for a total of over $520,000,000 cash returned to investors in the quarter. We ended the quarter with $555,000,000 of cash on the balance sheet. We continue to see increasing cost pressure with inflation with total inflation of 7% this quarter, which was higher than our previous expectations. As I mentioned last quarter, we began taking additional pricing in the 3rd quarter and have also implemented additional actions to further preserve the strength of our business model while balancing the impact to our guests. For the Q3, total pricing was 3.7% and for the Q4, we expect our pricing to be approximately 6% compared to last year.

Speaker 5

As a result, we now expect pricing to be just over 3% for the full fiscal year. This is well below our updated total inflation Expectations of 6% for the year as we continue to execute our strategy of pricing below overall inflation to strengthen our value leadership position. Turning to our P and L and segment performance for the Q3. We are comparing against pre COVID results in the Q3 of 2020, which we believe are more comparable to normal business operations and with how we've been framing our margin expansion opportunity. For the 3rd quarter, Food and beverage expenses were 270 basis points higher, driven by elevated commodities inflation as well as investments in food quality, portion size and pricing significantly below inflation.

Speaker 5

Our commodity inflation this quarter was 11%. Restaurant labor was 50 basis points higher, driven by wage inflation, higher sick pay and overtime expense as a result of Omicron. Hourly wage inflation during the quarter was just over 9%. Restaurant labor as a percent of sales in fiscal December February was better than pre COVID as these months did not experience the same scale of headwinds from Omicron. Restaurant expenses were 80 basis points lower as our teams continue to manage controllable expense.

Speaker 5

Marketing spend was $44,000,000 lower, resulting in 190 basis points of favorability. As a result, restaurant level EBITDA margin for Darden was 19.4%, 50 basis points below pre COVID levels for the quarter. However, Both in December February, restaurant level EBITDA margins grew by almost 100 basis points compared to pre COVID. G and A expense was 90 basis points lower, driven by savings from the corporate restructuring in fiscal 2021, a decrease in mark to market expense, Lower travel expenses and sales leverage. Turning to our segment performance.

Speaker 5

Sales and segment profit margins All segments other than Olive Garden grew sales. Olive Garden sales were slightly lower due to disproportionate impact Olive Garden experienced from the significant increase in COVID cases. This is because Olive Garden's geographic footprint and guest demographics make it more sensitive to COVID case count. Additionally, Olive Garden continues to have significantly less marketing and promotional activity, which is a headwind to sales growth when comparing to pre COVID. The January impact from Omicron I discussed earlier resulted in all of our segments experiencing lower segment profit margin in the quarter relative to pre COVID.

Speaker 5

Finally, turning to our financial outlook for fiscal 2022, we updated our outlook for the full year to reflect our performance year to date and our expected performance for the Q4. We now expect total sales of $9,550,000,000 to $9,620,000,000 driven by same restaurant sales growth of 29% to 30% and approximately 35 new restaurants, Capital spending of approximately $425,000,000 total inflation of approximately 6% with commodities inflation of approximately 9% And total restaurant labor inflation between 6% and 6.5%, which includes hourly wage inflation approaching 9%. EBITDA of $1,530,000,000 to $1,550,000,000 and annual effective tax rate of approximately 13.5 percent and Approximately 129,000,000 diluted average shares outstanding for the year, all resulting in diluted net earnings per share between $7.30 $7.45 This outlook implies full year EBITDA margin growth versus pre COVID of roughly 200 basis points, still within our previous expected range. This outlook also implies 4th quarter sales between $2,520,000,000 $2,590,000,000 and EPS between $2.13 $2.28 which is higher than what was contemplated in the previous outlook we provided in December. As Gene said, our quarter to date average weekly sales are slightly ahead of February and that is incorporated in this guidance.

Speaker 5

Looking forward to fiscal 2023, we're providing some preliminary guidance for a few items. We expect to open approximately 60 new units in fiscal 2023. We project total capital spending between $500,000,000 $550,000,000 We anticipate an effective tax rate of approximately 14% for fiscal 2023. Now, I'll turn it

Speaker 2

back to Gene. Thanks, Raj. This morning marked my 31st and final earnings call in my 8 years leading Darden. To all the analysts who supported us, thank you for believing in us, our vision and our ability to execute. And for those of you who didn't always believe in us, Thank you as well.

Speaker 2

You motivated me more than you will ever know. I want to thank our shareholders for the trust they have shown us by investing in Darden. I'll miss our time together, whether it's the 1 on 1 meeting, a group meeting or one of the many dinners we shared over the year. And finally, thank you to all the team members in our restaurants and our support center for the lifeblood of our company. I look forward to seeing you in our restaurants in my new role as Chair.

Speaker 2

I began this journey 45 years ago as a high school kid busting tables. I've learned a lot of lessons throughout my career, but 2 in particular have served as guiding principles for me. 1st, when it comes to making decisions, you have to make sure both Your guests and team members win. When those 2 critical stakeholders win, it's a good decision. 2nd, this is a simple business.

Speaker 2

Malcolm Knapp says it best, the restaurant business is simple, but simple is hard. To be successful in the restaurant industry, You must have great people who consistently serve outstanding food in an engaging atmosphere. So I may have With my back to basics operating philosophy, running great restaurants will always require intense focus on the fundamental. As I transition into my new role as Chair, I'm confident Darden is set up for success. Rick is ready to lead the company And he and his team will do a great job.

Speaker 2

Now we'll open it up for questions.

Operator

We'll take our first question from David Tarantino with Baird. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, good morning. My question is about the margin outlook given the inflation environment you're facing. And I think you had Previously guided to 200 basis points to 2 50 basis points of margin expansion relative to pre COVID levels and it Looks like you're going to comment in on that range for the fiscal year. But as you think about the forward looking outlook Beyond this year, do you think that is still in play, as you think about the inflation as you move into fiscal 2023? Or do you think that needs to change?

Speaker 5

Hi, David. Good morning. This is Raj. Hey, So let me just step back and talk about margin. When we began the year, obviously, things have changed quite a bit from the environment today Relative to how we started the year is very different.

Speaker 5

We started the year with 3% inflation assumption and pricing closer to 1.5%. And here we are, 3 quarters in, we're looking at 6% total inflation and our pricing has only gone up by about 1.5%. So we started with 1.5% and now we're Just over 3% for the full year and still are able to get to that 200 basis points. So we really feel good about where we are Getting to by the end of this year. We'll share more details in June call in terms of how we're thinking about fiscal 2023.

Speaker 5

But I think in the current environment, considering the situation we're in, we feel good about where we expect to be for this fiscal year.

Speaker 4

Got it. And then just a follow-up on that. You are sounds like you're leaning in a bit more on pricing with the 4th quarter being up 6%. I guess, how did you arrive at the decision to take that much pricing and how do you feel about The consumer's ability to absorb that level of pricing.

Speaker 5

Yes. I think if you actually look back to what we've done over the last few quarters And actually last couple of years, we've taken very little pricing. We've said all along that we wanted to preserve the flexibility. We wanted We approach pricing very conservatively and so we've been trying to hold off on pricing As much as the inflation would have dictated. And I think where we are now is 6% While 6% seems high on in terms of how historically we priced, considering the environment Considering what we're pricing over 2 years, we don't think it's too much.

Speaker 5

Obviously, we're going to continue to look for opportunities to price below inflation. Like I said earlier, this year we're pricing 300 below. And as inflation creeps up, we're going to have to try to manage through that. But it's going to be a combination of pricing and productivity initiatives.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you. And Gene, congrats again on a great run as CEO.

Speaker 5

Thank you, David.

Operator

We'll go next to Brian Bittner with Oppenheimer and Company. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Good morning. Congratulations, Jean. We seem to be sitting here at a point in time when Operators and investors are increasingly concerned about lapping stimulus and doing so at a time when gas prices are surging. And this does not seem to be impacting your outlook based on your comments around March and based on the implied 4Q revenue guidance, which implies very strong trends.

Speaker 6

So Can you just comment on the environment out there and maybe why, Darden seems to not be prone to it?

Speaker 2

Brian, I think this is Gene. I think one comment and I'll let Rick jump in here too. But of the things that gives us confidence around pricing, increasing the pricing level to 6% is that wage rate At the lower end are increasing higher than that. So we're seeing almost double digit when you look at our direct labor. So we believe that wage inflation throughout the country is rising at a pretty rapid rate.

Speaker 2

And so We believe that the consumer can handle that right now based on where things are today, Right. The environment can shift pretty quickly on us here. But what we're seeing today is that consumer demand remains fairly strong. And as you know this environment seems to be very different than a lot of other environments we've operated in the past where, we've got a lot of things A lot of headwinds impacting the consumer, but wages are increasing rapidly and especially more so on the lower end.

Speaker 3

Yes, Brian, and I'll add to the current environment. As you think about what's going on in Ukraine, first of all, I want to say our thoughts and prayers Or with the people of Ukraine. But the fact is we don't know how long the conflict is going to last and so we don't know how long that's going to do anything to the environment itself. We're focused on controlling what we can control, confident in our ability to manage our business effectively in any operating environment. The other thing to think about is, Restaurant supply is down 13% -ish, 14% from pre COVID.

Speaker 3

And so that gives people that want to go out and people do want to go out Fewer options and we are a great option for them. So and then last thing I'll say is you'll notice that our guidance range is a little bit wider than it normally would be in a quarter at the end. And that's just because of the uncertainty that we're feeling, but we feel good about the guidance we gave. We just gave a little bit bigger range just because of what we're going through today.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you, Gene and Rick.

Operator

We'll go next to Brett Levy, an MKM Partners. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks for taking the question. And Gene, your comments will be surely missed Over the next few years as we come out of these more challenging times. When you think about your operating model And all of the with inflation, labor shortages, all of the rising pressures on the consumer. How should we think about what you can implement in terms of technology?

Speaker 7

How conservative you want to be in terms of Newness to the menu over the next, we'll say, 2 to 6 quarters. How should we think about what you can really monitor on the controllables to drive productivity versus your need to

Speaker 3

Hey, Brett, it's Rick. And a couple of things on that question. So on the technology front, We continue to have the same goal. It's implementing technology that reduces friction across the value chain, wherever that friction is And responding to guest growing needs for personalization. We don't anticipate using technology to take people out of the system, Because this is a full service restaurant and full service company, and we believe that consumers want human interaction.

Speaker 3

In terms of menu, we've been clear that we really like the reduction in menu and what is done to provide our guests To get dishes they want, at high value dishes that they want, it makes it easier for our teams to produce them. And we continue to get better. If we add new items, we take another item off. And so we're going to be consistent on making sure our menus At the levels they are today within a very small percentage up or down. On the controllables front, we still have some costs that will be coming in over time.

Speaker 3

But as we look to the future and project as we think about sales going forward, we would expect to get some productivity, but we don't think margin Our fiscal 2023, but just if you think about our long term framework that we had, It was 10 to 30 basis points of margin improvement. We got 7 years of margin improvement in 2 years. And so we have to make sure that we Manage that and consider that margin improvement we've made over the last couple of years.

Speaker 7

And then just one quick follow-up. When you think about the mix of your consumers right now shifting either to higher value products or The pursuit of value, have you seen any material movement in the mix, I guess, by Olive Garden, by LongHarden and then just across the consolidated?

Speaker 3

No, but we haven't seen any movement.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Operator

We'll move next to John Glass with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, thanks. Good morning, Gene. I don't think you bored any of us. I think actually you've taught us all a lot about the industry. So thank you for that.

Speaker 8

On Rajon Commodities specifically, I know you've provided some insight in the deck here about through May. Do you have have you started to contract beyond that or do you think it's too early given the volatility? Do you have any visibility I guess into 2023 on at least that expense item?

Speaker 5

John, we are obviously starting to have conversations. We have we are I would say from a Compared to historical situation, we're probably less contracted. And we're working through those over the next few months, and we'll have more to share in June. But the forward premiums are too high to contract that far out.

Speaker 8

Thank you for that. And then just Related to your comments about pricing and the consumer can tolerate that pricing, how are you thinking about your promotional tactics In 'twenty three, do you start to come up with alternative plans if the consumer is weaker than you expect? Are you starting to revisit your thoughts about the marketing In the business, how are you preparing if in fact consumer demand starts to weaken and what are some of the tactics just broadly that you think you could employ to continue the sales momentum?

Speaker 3

Hey, John, it's Rick. Thanks for the question. I will say we're not going to talk too much about 2023, but I will say we've got contingency plans for anything. If the economy slows down, we've got some plans. We won't talk about what they are.

Speaker 3

If the economy stays strong, Then we'll continue what we're doing. And so until we see what that is and where it is, we don't really want to comment on what we would do.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank

Operator

you. We'll go next to Brian Milan at Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey, thank you. Thanks for the development color on fiscal 2023. Just wondering if you could speak to how that pipeline is building beyond that On a multiyear basis and it would be great to hear your thoughts on what you're seeing from a competition per site perspective. Are you seeing other large chain casual diners out there looking at these same sites? Just anything different or notable that's worth calling out versus how the environment was prior to COVID when there were more restaurants?

Speaker 3

Hey, Brian. We're continuing to build our pipeline for fiscal 2024 and beyond. And As we've said before, we'd like to get closer to the higher end of our long term framework in the future. As we're seeing competition for site, we aren't seeing as many people competing for sites, but there's still brands that are out there growing and competing for site. And so as we continue to build the pipeline, we will continue to compete for some of those sites.

Speaker 3

I will say add to that, we are taking over some sites and building some restaurant and converting some to our brands At an economical rate and they're really great sites, those brands just didn't stay through. So we'll continue to build our pipeline. We still have some Cost inflation in there, but our business model has improved so much that it is offsetting that by more than enough. And we feel good that we'll continue to build our pipeline.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Operator

We'll go next to Peter Saleh at BTIG. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Great. Thanks. Thanks for taking the question and congrats again, Gene. Gene, I think several quarters ago you had mentioned that You were seeing about 10% fewer units in casual dining versus pre pandemic, but there was I think a lot of speculation still in the category and people opening up Restaurants, are you still seeing that? Is it still fairly competitive out there in terms of development?

Speaker 10

Or has the environment Inflationary environment kind of pushed that down a little bit and made that subside a little bit.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think if you go back and what I was trying to say back then was that there was a lot of speculation, especially by some of the big REITs out there that were willing to take on Some real estate and leave it vacant for a while and the carry costs were less. We haven't seen any real Change in that, my expectation would be as interest rates rise, there'll be less speculation in the real estate market and people will be less likely To allow their buildings to sit dark for a period of time. And so as Rick said before, And the prior question, we're building our pipeline. There's competition out there, not a lot of chain restaurants out there competing.

Speaker 2

There's a lot Smaller regional players out there competing for space. At the end of the day, most landlords want Darden guarantee signature on their property. We get to look at most of the real estate out there in the United States and we get First look at it and if we can make it work, we're going to we'll sign a lease and we'll try to put the right brand on there to maximize the opportunity.

Speaker 10

Thank you for that. And then just on the development for 2023, can you give us a sense on How much of that development is coming from Kethers?

Speaker 3

Yes, it's going to be somewhere in the low single digits, maybe as much as 10, but lower single digits to as much as 10.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

We'll go next to Jeffrey Bernstein at Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Great. Thank you. And Jean, thank you for your steady leadership in friendship over the years And for setting an example for the industry to follow. Just a question on the off premise business. Seems like it's stickier than we would have thought.

Speaker 11

I think you said 30% Olive Garden, 16% at Longhorn. Just wondering if you can maybe share the split between delivery And pick up within that current to go sales and maybe where you think that's going to settle. I mean it just seems like a lot of this is here to stay and I'm just wondering whether there's any chance you guys would reconsider opening up to maybe 3rd party delivery aggregators. Seems like the consumer expects it and the consistency has improved, the fees have eased. I don't want to see you guys lose out if this is kind of where the future is going.

Speaker 11

So any thoughts on that would be great.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Hey, Jeff, this is Gene. I thought you'd wait till I leave the room to ask about 3rd party delivery. I'll let Rick take that.

Speaker 3

Hey, Jeff. Thanks for the question. Gene and I are in the same place on what we believe with 3rd party delivery. We still don't like that model. We don't think it's the right thing for having someone get in between us and our guests.

Speaker 3

And a couple of points, Olive Garden has grown their to go business significantly, and in many ways faster than others that have grown it with 3rd party delivery without that margin hit. Now our takeout sales increased in Q3 from Q2, partly because of the influx of Omicron. And so people shifted again back to a to go experience. We're seeing a little bit of a shift back to on premise In Q4, we don't know where the equilibrium is going to be. And when we get there, it will probably be higher than where we were before COVID, But it's not going to be at the levels they are today.

Speaker 3

And so we'll continue to make investments that we need to take the friction out of the order, pick up and pay experience So that people don't consider getting delivered. Now you did ask about our delivery. We do have large party delivery for Olive Garden, And that's a good business for us. It's a minimum order size. It gives us enough time to prep the order and deliver it to our guests And actually do a little bit more of a setup for it.

Speaker 3

I mean, so we really feel good about that business, but we never say never, but the likelihood of

Operator

We'll go next to Dennis Geiger at UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Great. Thank you. And Jean, congrats on a remarkable run. Wanted to ask on the staffing situation a bit more, sort of where are you now on Staffing levels relative to where you'd like to be, and kind of related to that, as it relates to wage inflation, Recognizing there's a lot of moving pieces out there, has that stabilized in your mind or is it too soon to make that call?

Speaker 3

Yes, Dennis, this is Rick. Thanks for the question on the staffing side. We feel, as I said in the prepared remarks, we feel much better about where we are in our staffing Today than we did 3 months ago and 3 months before that, we continue to add around 10,000 people working Per quarter basically at the end of the quarter from the quarter before, our staffing levels are greater than 95% of pre COVID staffing levels. We don't need as many people as we did before because of our productivity enhancement. That said, we want to make sure that our team members that we have are fully trained And productive.

Speaker 3

And as we said, exclusions were pretty tough in the month of January, especially. In terms of wage inflation, we are, as we said, seeing a continued increase on applicant flow. And so while it hasn't reversed kind of the starting wage trend, it's actually starting to stabilize, but we don't know where that's Whether that's going to land. But right now, it's starting to stabilize a little bit and we'll know more as that, as that applicant flow continues to pick up and people feel more comfortable Working again after as omicron hopefully become more of an endemic versus the pandemic.

Speaker 12

Great. And just one more there, Rick, as it relates to the competitive environment and the industry, you spoke to it some, I think, as it related to real estate opportunities. As it relates to market share, perhaps how are you thinking now About the small chain independent situation, has it gotten better or worse as you kind of look ahead, Has the opportunity for you to kind of pick up share because of closures, permanent closures, maybe more Challenges that are coming given all the inflation, has that have your thoughts there changed at all on what that means for Darden's brands? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes, Dennis, our thoughts haven't changed as the economic environment continued to struggle over time as omicron picked up more restaurants closed. So there are fewer restaurants today than there were last month and the month before and the month before that. They'll eventually get filled and our What we want to do is be there to fill some of those restaurants and pick up that market share. As we think about the future, we've said that we're going to increase, Hopefully, get to the high end of our framework and new unit, but those restaurants will eventually come back and be better than they were before. Our restaurants will be Then maybe the runs that were closed.

Speaker 12

Thanks very much.

Operator

We'll go next to Chris O'Cull at Stifel. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Thanks. My question relates to just consumers' value perception of Olive Garden. Rick, I'm curious if you've seen any change in the value perception as more orders have shifted to off premise over the past a couple of years or if your strategy of pricing below inflation as others have taken more aggressive pricing has had any impact on Olive Garden's Value perception.

Speaker 3

Hey, Chris, we haven't really seen a big impact in our internal data on a change in value perception at Olive Garden. We track both on premise and off premise. Olive Garden continues to increase Their overall satisfaction from 5 years ago, there's a slope up versus most customers are actually more dissatisfied Across American Consumer Satisfaction Index, we're bucking that trend. All of our brands are bucking that trend. And so we haven't Seeing a big change in value ratings for Olive Garden, and we'll continue to monitor that.

Speaker 3

We don't think the pricing actions that we have taken Are going to change that dramatically, because we're still, as Raj had mentioned, much lower than most Full service restaurants combined over a 2 year period.

Speaker 13

That's helpful. And then just with marketing dollars down about 60% from pre COVID levels and other changes starting to spend more on advertising. Is there any concern at all that Olive Garden may lose top of mind awareness if marketing Spend isn't increased more aggressively?

Speaker 3

Yes, Chris. As you mentioned, we are lower in marketing spend than we were pre COVID. We're going to continue to wait for the equilibrium. I'm really proud of the work that Dan and his team has done keeping with our strategy. And so we have been marketing, But we're marketing our never ending first course to remind everybody about the value they get every day at Olive Garden.

Speaker 3

We're not doing promotional marketing, but we're talking about the value they get every day. And we'll continue to look at our marketing spend over time. And If the time we bring that back up, we would expect to earn a return on that, as we said in the last call. We still Olive Garden It's large and one of their advantages is their scale means that we will be marketing at Olive Garden. We just want to find the right time to continue to increase that, But it probably won't get all the way back to pre COVID levels, but we'll see where equilibrium comes.

Speaker 13

Great. Thanks, guys.

Operator

We'll go next to Eric Gonzalez at KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Hey, thanks for the question. And Jean, congrats on a fantastic career.

Speaker 13

It's really been a pleasure to

Speaker 12

follow your success over the years. My question is about the consumer environment. Talked about the rise in low end wages being offset by some of the cost pressures out there. I'm also wondering if we might be experiencing some post omni content of demand in March, The consumer might be less sensitive to price increases. So perhaps you could talk about how sustainable you believe the current momentum might be and maybe what factors might contribute to that sustainability?

Speaker 3

Yes, Eric. This is Rick. I'll talk about the sustainability. We've guided what we think our Q4 will be, And that includes everything we know today. And it talks about what our comp sales will be and what our total sales will be, which was higher than what we would have guided In December for Q4.

Speaker 3

There might be some pent up demand for Omicron, but there's pent up demand for COVID. And it might have been Omicron, but there's other things. And so we're going to continue to see what the equilibrium is. We keep coming back to that word equilibrium. What do we look like when everything is back to a more normal state and as a steady state?

Speaker 3

And we're not there yet. We've got geopolitical risk And other things, which is again why we have a wider range in our outlook for Q4 than we normally would at this time.

Speaker 12

Fair enough. And maybe on labor costs quickly, you mentioned the heavy excluding costs due to omicron. I'm just wondering if you can comment on turnover levels And then maybe quantify how much of a drag if you're seeing any excess staff training relative to normalized levels?

Speaker 3

Yes. Turnover levels in the last you think about turnover the way we manage it, it's over a 12 month period and you've got a lot of kind of fluctuation over time. But turnover levels are getting

Speaker 5

A little bit better for us in

Speaker 3

the long versus where we were just a few months back and months before that. We still have 90 day turnover at a higher level than we'd like it to be. So that's what we're focusing more on training, even more and specifically on our new team members to make sure they get up to speed and they understand what our business is all about. And I'll let Raj talk about the other part.

Speaker 5

Yes. On the expense side, I'd say just purely the Spence part of it probably impacted our margins by about 20 to 30 basis points related to all the Omicron impact, whether it's Overtime, sick pay or training, all that stuff is probably in that 20 to 30 basis points range. And mind you, that doesn't include the deleverage from Salesman. That's the other part of it that impacts the margins too.

Speaker 12

That's helpful. Thanks.

Operator

We'll go next to Nicole Miller at Piper Sandler. Your line is open. Please go ahead. I apologize, we lost your line. We'll go to Andy Barish with Jefferies.

Operator

Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Yes. One quick follow-up. Just Raj, on the $100,000,000 sales impact you quoted, I was a little confused. Was that The omicron impact and the winter weather impact, I just wanted to make sure I

Speaker 7

heard that okay.

Speaker 5

Yes, it was the impact of both in January. We're specifically Referring to the impact in January, yes, from both.

Speaker 15

Okay. And then Gene, if

Speaker 14

you could kind of publicly impart a little bit of Final wisdom on I mean, what would you be looking for? What would typically show up in consumer behavior if the Consumer behavior, if the consumer was starting to feel stress from the from environmental factors.

Speaker 2

Yes, I think I mean, obviously, we've been trying to regress a bunch of different variables back In the past recessions that try to give us a chance to understand what the leading indicator may be. I think this one is so different Because of the geopolitical risks involved, because of A pandemic that hopefully we're going to switch to an endemic and we're able to live with this virus going forward. I think that it's going to take a fairly solid recession To really have some impact on the consumer. I think the consumer balance sheet is stronger than it has been previously. I think the biggest variable going forward that as I think about it, it's different than every other recession Our period that we had a real slowdown is that there's so many open jobs today.

Speaker 2

And when you think about what really causes a Session, it's employment. And as things slowed down a little bit, it's just it's not I also don't see companies Especially where the supply chains have been somewhat broken and inventories levels are low, I don't see us getting to a higher a significantly higher unemployment level anytime in the near term Barring something really happens bad with what's going on overseas. And so I just think this one is different because of where employment is. It's not like we've perfectly matched everybody that's willing to work with a number of open jobs. We have so many open jobs today.

Speaker 2

And I look at our shop here and say, boy, if we had to come in and cut some more overhead, it would be almost impossible to do Because we have a fair number of open jobs here. So that's the one variable that I think is so different in this environment. I don't know how it's going to play out. But remember, we're in a business where like in Olive Garden, if 3 or 4 tables don't come in tonight and at 12 to 16 guests, That's going to have a pretty big impact on the business over time. So we're fighting I always say we're fighting for that last 4 top.

Speaker 2

That last 4 top is so profitable And we need to make sure that we continue to create value and we got to operate well. I mean, I think that's the big thing out there today Is that the operator I think casual dining restaurants and full service restaurants in general, we just need to operate better. I think we got sloppy during COVID. We've had to do things to just They open and get by. We got to get sharp again.

Speaker 2

And I think our teams are doing a great job. But I think as an industry, we've got to earn the right from the consumer To pay what we're asking them to pay and we've got to provide a really true full service environment.

Speaker 7

Thanks again.

Operator

And we'll return to Nicole Miller with Piper Sandler. And Nicole, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 16

Thank you so much. I hit the hang up button versus unmute, so I apologize. Two quick ones. On Olive Garden, in let's say a normalized environment, you had mentioned the sales and marketing. Can you talk about and reconcile a little bit marketing and the framework of discounting, because it seems like a lot of investment has gone back into the store and into the plate, Really consumer facing areas.

Speaker 16

And so it also seems like it would be tempting with sales just down a smidge to go back to discounting, But maybe that isn't the right strategy. Could you just talk about that a little bit?

Speaker 3

Yes, Nicole. We are really pleased with the strategy that we have. We believe that it's better to provide an experience with a great guest experience that our people our core guests that are willing to pay for that experience. And we would rather not discount. We took out all discounting out Of Olive Garden and all of our brands at COVID.

Speaker 3

I mean, we haven't added that back. Others have started to add that back, but we are Continue to maintain our strategy of keeping the discounts out of our brand. Again, as the environment changes, if the environment changes, We will consider anything, but we have a lot of options. Our biggest option is to increase our marketing spend, whether it's Even at undiscounted, just to get our strategy and our message out at Olive Garden of a never ending first course. That is a great value.

Speaker 3

As we think about limited time offers in the future, if we have them, they'll be at a different construct than we had before. But again, When equilibrium comes and we know which way we go, that's when we'll act.

Speaker 16

And then if that equilibrium does not come, I'm curious about Cheddar's, not that anyone would or could move this quickly, but if it's a weaker macro period, Do you press on value and marketing the value of Cheddar's and or even Grow the units as fast as possible, it seems like that's one of the best or better value propositions in the portfolio.

Speaker 3

Nicole, Cheddar is a great value and that is their advantage as well value. And we're continuing to improve the experience Cheddar's improved the food, improved the service experience, while keeping prices much lower and pricing much lower than our competition, Which is just going to improve the value perception even more. Cheddar's doesn't have as much scale to do kind of the TV kind of advertising. Our best advertising at Cheddar's is when you get your check and you see the price that you're paying and you tell your friend. We're going to continue to do that And find other ways with digital and other things if we need to ramp up marketing in our brand.

Speaker 3

And in terms of new unit growth, those pipelines take a while to build, right? So we're building them now. You can't Kind of turn on a dime if the consumer gets a little weaker and say we're just going to open quite a few more of one brand versus the other. But we believe in Cheddar's and we believe that they have a lot of growth ahead of them and we're going to continue to build a pipeline of people and of restaurant To capture that opportunity.

Speaker 16

Thank you.

Operator

We'll go next to Andrew Charles at Cowen. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 17

Great. Thank you. Gene, best wishes on a well deserved retirement and Rick, best of luck to you in your new role. The mix of digital sales as a percent of off premise grew this quarter to 63% from 60% of sales previously. And Rick, I

Speaker 5

know you said the

Speaker 17

equilibrium For where the off premise mix can go is unclear relative to that prior 20% plus target, but is there another boundary for how high that Digital mix of all premise can go? And then I have a follow-up.

Speaker 3

Yes. I don't think there's a limiter of how high the digital mix go other than 100%. But there are still people that want to call in and dial in and pick up the order. They may not be as comfortable with the technology. We're trying to make it as seamless and smooth as possible, but we're even making that experience better for the people to dial in, how do they pay and How do they pick up?

Speaker 3

So we're doing things on the technology front that maybe they don't see as much, but that we can get better so that they can still do the dial ins for us. We would like to see the digital percentage continue to grow as part of off premise. It just simplifies the operation in the restaurant. There's Fewer things that the team members have to do to pick up the phone, etcetera. But there are some long standing guests that just like to call, and we'll continue to offer that service to them.

Speaker 3

We will not eliminate dial in to get the percentages up. These percentages have grown because of the investments that we've made And we'll continue to make and hopefully they'll continue to grow.

Speaker 17

Great. And then just relatedly, can we expect see a higher mix of digital marketing in 2023 versus 2022 to drive a higher digital off premise mix and help increase data collection? Or Will the focus of the 2023 marketing message pivot back to driving more dine in sales?

Speaker 3

Andrew, we're not going to talk as much about what's going on in 2023. I will say that whatever the environment looks like, whether we need to drive more dine sales versus off premise, we'll do we don't really do a lot of digital marketing on the off premise. So most of our marketing is for on premise. And If we do any off premise marketing, it will be an increase. So pretty much most of our marketing is for I'm sorry, if we do any off premise marketing, it will be increased.

Speaker 3

Most of our Marketing is on premise.

Speaker 15

Thank you.

Operator

We'll go next to Lauren Silverman at Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 16

Thank you. And Jean, I also echo everyone's comments about your leadership. So on the accelerating commodity pressures, beyond additional Right. Can you talk about any other levers you're looking at in the supply chain to help offset some of the commodity pressures? Any flexibility in some of the ingredients in sourcing?

Speaker 3

Yes, Lauren. We really like the way our menu works right now and the taste in our food. So we don't have a we don't expect to go in there and change ingredients significantly to offset some of these costs. We'll continue to work with our supply chain partners to get the best prices that we can get for the product. I will say, as I said in my prepared remarks, we're going to do whatever it takes to get the products that our consumers value and that our consumers expect to have when they come in To eat with us.

Speaker 3

We're hoping that eventually this inflation environment gets a little bit better, But we think we can compete in whatever environment there is.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

We'll go next to Chris Carroll at RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Thanks and good morning. Congratulations and wish you all the best going forward. So just on the additional pricing you'll take beginning this quarter, can you provide any Further detail on how you're planning to implement this additional pricing across the portfolio, maybe specifically at your largest brands versus your higher end brands?

Speaker 5

Yes. I think Chris, the way we've talked about before is our philosophy is generally to price less At casual dining, and obviously that can vary from quarter to quarter. So I don't want to get into the exact specifics because these numbers change Monthly, quarterly because it's a function of what we're wrapping on and how this goes. But generally speaking, there's a lot of science that goes into how we go about pricing and That is very analytical, but there's also a lot of art that we've gained over time, the intuition that we've developed Looking at data over time and being in this business for a long time.

Speaker 15

Got it. And then, I guess as a follow-up, Raj, you mentioned productivity initiatives to also help offset these incremental cost pressures that you're seeing. So Can you expand maybe on what some of these productivity initiatives look like? Is this just kind of more related to new employee training?

Speaker 5

I think it goes back some of that is that, but I think it goes back to the things that we did through COVID. A lot of the stuff is a continuation of what we've done with simplification. We continue to find opportunities To simplify, and then as Rick said in his comments, as we're hiring new people, our focus is on training them to be more productive. So there is a lot of new people in our system right now and we want them to be at their best and that takes time.

Speaker 15

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

We'll go next to John Ivankoe with JPMorgan. Your line is open. Please go

Speaker 9

Hi. The question was also just on the staffing and I guess who the applicants are in 2022 relative to 2019. It was curious or good to hear

Speaker 4

that your overall turnover levels,

Speaker 9

I guess, on an annual basis are beginning To improve, but how would you I guess that you'd describe the overall productivity and the hospitality elements Of your employees, I mean, is this still basically the type of employment class that you expect To get back to fiscal 2019 hospitality levels or have there been some changes including your menu simplification That might actually allow the calendar 2022 and beyond class to actually execute better than what you've done in the past based on some of the process changes that you've made.

Speaker 3

Yes, John. To answer the question directly, I think we can get better, Continue to get better with this class because of the menu simplification we've made. When reducing our menus the way we did Has made it a lot easier to run a restaurant. The managers spent a little less time on individual items and teaching people on these items that we didn't produce very often. I mean, we just get better at producing the same things over and over again, which are the things that our guests want.

Speaker 3

We've had a couple of things that have happened through COVID That have been good for us. One is, we've hired some folks that maybe we wouldn't have looked at before, maybe it's their first job. But giving someone their first job and teaching them to do the things the way we do it, is a good thing for us. Maybe in the past, we would have said you needed to have a lot of experience restaurant before you come to work for ours. But we're seeing that some of these folks that we're hiring that are new to work, We're teaching them how to work the way we want them to work and it's actually working out for us pretty well.

Speaker 3

We also have seen a lot of rehires. A lot of people are coming back to work for us That have left us over time. And a lot of our managers are rehired. And so while people may have left the industry During COVID, a lot of them are coming back and we feel really good about the fact that they're coming back to work for us.

Speaker 9

That's helpful. Congratulations again, Gene.

Operator

We'll go next to David Palmer with Evercore ISI. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 17

Thanks. Congrats, Dean, on a heck of a career. All the best to you in retirement. I have a question about Cheddar's And Darden's acquisition strategy going forward, Cheddar's has gone through a lot of change before COVID. I think some of that It's more painful and slow than you would have expected, but it seemed to have reached pretty transformational levels with labor productivity during COVID.

Speaker 17

So Could you talk about Cheddar's new unit returns today and what that unit growth could possibly look like going forward for that brand? How fast can it ramp? I have a quick follow-up on that.

Speaker 3

Hey, David. Let me just say how proud I am of John Wilkerson and his team and what they've done over COVID over 2 years Of significantly changing the business model at Cheddar's to make it a much more investable proposition for us. As we said And one of the earlier questions, kind of the new unit opening range of low single digits to high to up to We'll probably open more than we've had since we've bought them. And we'll continue to build that pipeline as we continue To strengthen the team, the great thing that they have done is built the team to be ready to open restaurant. And that wasn't ready when we got them.

Speaker 3

And so, I can't tell you how big Cheddar's will be, but I can tell you that they have a big addressable population. The values that they provide, the value that they provide for the consumer and the food that they have means there's a lot of cheddars that can be built out there. How many? Can't tell you until we get to more of these open. I will say the restaurants that we've opened through COVID have done really well for us, and we feel really good about the fact that can open more cheddars.

Speaker 17

And I don't know, maybe you want to circle back on the unit returns part of that, but I also have a follow-up just on sort of what that means as you're getting past Cheddar's, are acquisitions Going to be even more focused for you. And I just think it's worth just noting how unusual it would be If Darden were to become sort of a get an acquisition premium, if you will, because right now there's not many Not many companies out there you can see an acquisition strategy paying off in an accretive way where the multiple reflects that like that rinse and repeat credibility on acquisitions. So maybe you want to comment on that capability and How much of this is going to be a focus for you going forward? And thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes, David. If you think about our acquisition strategy, we've made Four big acquisitions since 2007, and that should still be part of our strategy going forward. We've proven that we can get synergies and we've proven over time it takes a while that we get these brands up and running and ready to go and grow. But our management team and Board regularly evaluate that and nothing's going to change as we go forward. We believe Darden is a platform, A platform that can add brand that helps Darden grow and continue to build our biggest advantage, which is scale.

Speaker 17

Thank you.

Operator

We'll go next to Jared Garber with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 18

Hi, thanks for taking the question and certainly appreciate all the great color on the quarter and I think on the consumer as we I think ahead for the rest of the year. Many of the questions have certainly been asked and answered,

Speaker 5

but I wanted to get

Speaker 18

a sense of maybe some other strategies that you're thinking about in terms of making the consumer value proposition stronger outside of the price dynamic. So Wondering if you can comment on how loyalty plays into your thinking here, whether that's a brand specific program or something across the platform? Or are there any other sort of Strategies that you're thinking through that might improve that value proposition outside of just stronger menu and So that's better value pricing?

Speaker 3

Hey, Jared. As we think about our strategy and value proposition, It's really what we've been talking about for years in our basic simple operating philosophy, food, service and atmosphere. We're going to continue to invest in food, make it better And make it more consistent every time you come into one of our restaurants. We're going to continue to improve our service, we're going to make sure our atmospheres are great. In terms of while we again price continue to price Is our expectation below our competition and below inflation?

Speaker 3

We believe that that is the best way to build value. Loyalty, We've looked at that before. We may look at it again. I'm not quite sure that that's where the value comes from is Counting because we're giving them what they want at a price that they think is a fair value for them and a great value for them, and we'll continue to do that going forward.

Speaker 18

Great. Thanks for the color.

Operator

We'll go next to Jake Bartlett with Truist Securities, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks for seeking me in here. And Gene, congratulations, just to echo all the thoughts there. My question was on the idea that there's the pent up demand post COVID itself and not just omicron. And Given all the data intensive view, I'm wondering if you can share any data on how many Whether you're seeing consumers come back in that haven't come in a couple of years, maybe how material that is, whether you're really seeing A shift in consumers, kind of thinking more post COVID.

Speaker 8

And then a separate question is just on regionality. I think as investors are concerned about what gas prices might be doing to consumer, it's higher prices in different regions and specifically in the West Koos, whether you're seeing any kind of more pronounced near term impact as you think about maybe your quarter to date Trends, whether there's much variability there.

Speaker 3

Hey, Jake. In terms of Kind of the pent up demand over for COVID versus omicron. Yes, we're seeing some consumers that haven't been with us for a couple of years in our dining rooms, Right. So there were people there are still a percentage of people that didn't feel comfortable going out, even as Delta kind of waned And people thought maybe COVID was kind of done at that time. And so we're still seeing guests that are coming back, And there'll probably be some more that come back.

Speaker 3

We're still a little skewed. If we think about our skew of demographics, We're still a little bit lower in our mix of those over 65, because I think they felt a little bit less comfortable, But that mix is getting better. And in terms of I forgot the second part. The geography piece, I'm sorry. Yes, I don't think we're going to get into the geography in the just 3 weeks, right, quarter to date.

Speaker 3

I will say that the geographic impact in Q3 were much more related to Omicron than they were for anything else, Depending on what that geographic region felt about COVID versus not. But Not getting into kind of the gas prices in just a really short period of time because they're already the gas prices kind of moved up and moved down a little bit over those 3 weeks.

Speaker 8

Got it. And just a quick follow-up. I think there's more concern about the lower income consumer. And Jean, you mentioned just that that's where the lower income consumers seeing the most wage inflation. So I appreciate that offset.

Speaker 8

But are you seeing any differences in Maybe in quarter to date or February, in terms of the types of consumers that you're exposed to, Any insight there as to whether there's one is

Speaker 4

a little more wobbly than the other or whether they're kind of all performing about the same?

Speaker 3

Yes, Jake. We're not really seeing a big material difference in consumers through February, March based on anything that's going on in the geopolitical environment what's going on with inflation.

Speaker 8

Great. I appreciate it. Thank you.

Speaker 5

Sure.

Operator

We'll take our final question from Nick Sutton with Wedbush Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 17

Thank you. And thank you, Gene, for all of your wisdom throughout the years. My question is specifically on just wheat costs. Given the importance of pasta and bread, it would be just very helpful if you could frame your exposure in some way, whether it's The food basket or this is the kind of pricing we would need to take to offset it. Is there any way you can frame your exposure if we should be worried about it?

Speaker 5

Yes, Nick, maybe I'll just dimensionalize it for you. When you look at our food basket, wheat makes up about 7%, Call it 2% to 3% is pasta related and then the rest is bakery and bread. So that's really where the exposure to wheat directly is. We're continuing to see what happens in that market and we'll work with our vendors to kind of just Make sure we get the best price we can in the environment we're in.

Speaker 17

Great. Thank you.

Operator

And with no other questions holding, Mr. Kelleck, I'll turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing comments.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jess. That concludes our call. And I'd like to remind you that we plan to release 4th quarter results on Thursday, June 23rd, before the market opens

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.

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Key Takeaways

  • Volatile Q3 with record sales in December, a significant Omicron-driven slump in January, and a strong rebound in February and sustained momentum into March ahead of guidance.
  • Omicron exclusions peaked at 8% of the workforce, driving elevated sick pay and overtime costs that, coupled with severe winter weather, reduced sales by over $100 million and cut EBITDA margins by roughly 100 bps in January.
  • Total commodity inflation hit ~11% in Q3 and ~7% overall, leading to pricing increases of 3.7% in Q3 and a planned ~6% in Q4—still below the updated ~6% full-year inflation forecast to uphold value leadership.
  • Financially, Q3 sales rose 41% to $2.4 billion with a 16.1% EBITDA margin (+50 bps vs. pre-COVID) and $1.93 EPS; FY22 guidance was raised to $9.55–9.62 billion in sales and $7.30–7.45 EPS, with Q4 EPS of $2.13–2.28.
  • This was Gene Lee’s final call as CEO, handing over to Rick Cardenas and reaffirming Darden’s strategy built on significant scale, data-driven insights, rigorous planning and a “back to basics” focus on food, service and atmosphere.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Darden Restaurants Q3 2022
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