Organon & Co. Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
May 5, 2022

Key Takeaways

  • Revenue of $1.6 B in Q1 2022, up 8% at constant currency with a 41.3% adjusted EBITDA margin, and full-year guidance reaffirmed.
  • Fertility and biosimilars each delivered double-digit growth this quarter, and Nexplanon demand supports at least 12% constant-currency growth for 2022.
  • Established Brands have stabilized post-LOE with sustained cash flows, targeting low single-digit erosion over the intermediate term and near-flat full-year performance.
  • Organon is bolstering its women’s health pipeline through business development, including the Q4 2022 U.S. launch of ZACIADO for bacterial vaginosis.
  • Foreign exchange translation is a ~4% headwind and expected 2022 impacts include ~$100 M LOE, ~$100 M China volume-based procurement and ~$200 M price erosion.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Organon & Co. Q1 2022
00:00 / 00:00

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Organode First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Thank you.

Operator

I would now like to turn the call over to Jennifer Hulchak, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please begin your

Speaker 1

Thank you, Mary, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Organon's Q1 2022 earnings call. With me today are Kevin Ali, Organon's Chief Executive Officer, who will cover strategy and operational highlights and Matt Walsh, our Chief Financial Officer, who will review performance, guidance and capital allocation. Doctor. Sandra Milligan, Organon's Head of R and D will Today, we'll be referencing a presentation that will be visible during this call for those of you on our webcast.

Speaker 1

This presentation will also be available following this call on the Events and Presentation section of our Organon Investor Relations website at www.organon.com. Before we begin, I would like to caution listeners that certain information discussed by management during this conference call will include forward looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those stated or implied by forward looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with the company's business, which are discussed in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 10 ks and subsequent periodic filings. In addition, we will discuss certain non GAAP financial measures on this call, which should be considered as a supplement to and not a substitute for Financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of these non GAAP measures to the comparable GAAP measures is included in the press release and conference call presentation.

Speaker 1

I'd now like to turn the call over to our CEO, Kevin Ollie.

Speaker 2

Good morning, everyone, and thank you, Jen. Welcome to today's call where we will talk about our Q1 2022 results. For the Q1 of 2022, revenue came in at $1,600,000,000 up 8% at constant currency and adjusted EBITDA was $647,000,000 representing a 41.3 adjusted EBITDA margin. We had a strong Q1. The year is off to a great start and we are reaffirming the full year guidance ranges we provided back in February.

Speaker 2

Now since our launch almost a year ago, all three of our franchises, women's health, biosimilars and established brands have been delivering on their objectives, each playing their important role in creating a sustainable company driving forward our vision of improving the health of women. Let's start with fertility and biosimilars, 2 of our growth pillars. They continue to grow double digits in the quarter and we Both to deliver double digit performance for the full year. We are also very confident in the demand trends we are seeing for Nexplanon that support our view That for the full year 2022, Nexplanon will perform at least as strongly as the 12% growth at constant currency that we saw in 2021. As we've said in prior calls, some of our products, especially in women's health and biosimilars are Subject to the buying patterns of our institutional customers and will vary quarter to quarter.

Speaker 2

This was evident in the Q1 with Nexplanon in the U. S. We had a price increase go into effect in December 2021. And as you may recall, we had a very strong Q4 of last year And some volume was pulled forward ahead of that price increase. But demand exiting the Q1 was very And Nexplanon is off to a healthy start in the 2nd quarter and on track to deliver our expected full year performance.

Speaker 2

Organon is continuing to bring renewed focus to Nexponon. This includes our digital marketing efforts aimed at raising awareness among consumers and motivating conversations with healthcare providers, all of which are gaining traction And resulting in increased product demand. Other initiatives include unique social media projects and the recent ability to have a telehealth conversations where women can connect with an independent healthcare provider to discuss Nexplanon and other contraception options. We also continue to evolve our clinical training program offering. In the Q1, we trained 6,700 new healthcare professionals To perform the 1 minute insertion and 2 minute removal for Nexplanon.

Speaker 2

This is more than triple the number trained in the first Quarter of last year and well ahead of our pre pandemic activity. We're also very encouraged about Nexplanon's growth outside of the U. S. Nexplanon grew over 30% ex FX outside the U. S.

Speaker 2

Driven by performance in Latin America, which benefited from tender phasing but also increased demand. We are seeing very strong demand in important markets like Brazil, which had a record month in March of this year. Continuing our discussion on women's Children, the use of assisted reproductive technologies like in vitro fertilization are growing about 5% to 10% annually. It is a large market impacting an estimated 190,000,000 people. It is also an industry with significant brand loyalty.

Speaker 2

Our products follistim, Orgolutron and NOLANVA are well established and foundational to the patient friendly GnRH antagonist treatment protocol, which requires fewer injections and is favored in conjunction with egg and embryo freezing. Now let's turn to biosimilars, Another growth engine for the company. With about half of our biosimilar business outside of the U. S. And subject to tenders, We will see growth rates vary quarter to quarter, but we expect biosimilars to continue to deliver double digit performance on an annualized basis.

Speaker 2

In the U. S, our two offerings are brand FLEXIS, our infliximab biosimilar and Entrezon, our trastuzumab biosimilar. The inflixibab market continues to grow every year and RENFLEXIS has benefited from that tailwind with sales still growing even 5 years after launch. The trastuzumab market has some of the highest adoption rates about 70% among biosimilars and the uptake of Entrezant in the U. S.

Speaker 2

Continues to show growth since its launch in 2020. We remain very well positioned as a commercial collaborator with Samsung and we are particularly encouraged by the planned U. S. Launch of our HUMIRA biosimilar in mid-twenty 23 for which we will be undertaking an interchangeability study. We remain committed to pursuing the sizable biosimilar opportunity presented by an estimated $100,000,000,000 plus of blockbuster biologics Going off patent over the next decade, we will evaluate these pipeline opportunities with Samsung as well as other biosimilar developers.

Speaker 2

Equally important to our growth pillars is the stabilization that we are seeing in our Established Brands business. This is a basket of 49 important medicines with significant brand loyalty covering multiple therapeutic areas globally. The potential for this sizable part of Organon's business to stabilize was evident to Well before the spin and that's what we are seeing now. The LOE risk in this portfolio is now behind us. In addition, by maximizing commercial and lifecycle management opportunities, often at a country level, we believe we can manage this business at Stained very low single digit erosion rate over the intermediate term.

Speaker 2

Matt will walk you through some of the favorable one time items that contributed to the double digit Growth with established brands in the Q1. Beneath the one time favorability, the underlying business performed well And in light of the outperformance in the Q1, we expect Established Brands to deliver close to flat performance for the full year 2022 on a constant currency basis. Critical to our success in established brands is our approach to managing our business in China. Since 2017, we've been focusing our growth strategies on the retail channel, which has been growing double digits and now represents about half of our Established Brands business in China. There's also strong demand for our products in the hospital channel for those products not yet subject to volume based procurement and both products have been growing double digits as well.

Speaker 2

China represents a very important market for us And we're well positioned there with a solid retail strategy and good revenue diversification. Overall, there was Very solid operating performance from the franchises in the quarter and I'd like to now provide an update on our external growth initiatives. Consistent with our stated commitment to deliver healthcare interventions that address unmet and under met needs in women's health, We continue to be active on the business development front, expanding our women's health portfolio beyond contraception and fertility. Today, we've been active in clinical stage assets like our licensing of the investigational evoPiprant for preterm labor And our collaboration with our collaboration partner ObsEva and the acquisition of Parendo with assets in development for endometriosis and PCOS. This is balanced against our new commercial stage products like JADA for PPH, Marvellon and Merzlon and most recently our global licensing agreement with Dare Bioscience.

Speaker 2

Now, agreement with Dare Bioscience. Now bacterial vaginosis is the most common cause of vaginitis worldwide. It is estimated to affect 21,000,000 women in the U. S. And can have disruptive symptoms and potentially pose serious health risks.

Speaker 2

Today approximately half of the women treated for bacterial vaginosis experienced multiple episodes of BV within 12 months of treatment. As evidence of our commitment to the unmet Undermet needs of women, we are licensing Dare Zaciado, which is an FDA approved medication for the treatment of bacterial vaginosis in women 12 years of age and older and a Phase 3 clinical trial, Zasciado demonstrated improved clinical cure rates as compared We're looking forward to potential Q4 launch of this product in the U. S. The opportunity with Dare is emblematic of our approach to business development. Our goal is to assemble a suite of options The Advanced Women's Health with assets that address unmet needs, including those that may have been overlooked because of patient populations or therapeutic area.

Speaker 2

Further, we're looking to build a portfolio of assets in various phases of development from clinical stage with blockbuster potential to already commercialized products. Overall, 2022 is off to a very solid start. And at this point, I'd like to turn it over to Matt to review the quarter in more detail. Thank you, Kevin. As I've

Speaker 3

done in previous quarters, I'll remind you that our results prior to spin off are presented on the carve out basis of accounting, which is a GAAP convention. It's not intended to present results as if Organon were a standalone company. So So I want to be clear as we discuss our results that because our spin date was June 2, it won't be until the Q3 of 2022 That we can draw true apples to apples comparisons to prior year results where all P and L line items represent post spin standalone financials for Organon. Until that time, revenue is where we'll have the best comparability to prior year periods and that's where we'll start the financial discussion. So turning to Slide 7, revenue for the Q3 was $1,600,000,000 up 4% as reported And up 8% at constant currency exchange rates when compared to the Q1 of last year.

Speaker 3

In this graphic, we break out the Change in revenue according to key drivers and I'll highlight some of the more significant impacts. The impact of loss of exclusivity or LOE During the Q1 was approximately $30,000,000 and it's primarily related to NuvaRing's LOE in the United States. We didn't have any LOE impact in Established Brands this quarter. The most significant LOEs facing Portfolio washed out in 2021, we expect only modest new LOE exposure going forward. Since December of 2020, we have been expecting a generic entrant in the U.

Speaker 3

S. For DULAYRA. That did not happen in 2021 And has not happened thus far in 2022. Our current expectation is that any potential LOE for DELARA, should it happen this year, will have a limited impact on 2022 results and that view is currently incorporated into our full year guidance. I'm continuing to read across the waterfall chart.

Speaker 3

In the Q1 of last year, the impact from volume based procurement in China was significant due to the December 2020 implementation of the 3rd round of VBP. Now back then that was the largest round to that point And included 4 of Organon's products: Singulair Pediatrics, Proscar, Propecia and Arcoxia. That compares with the Q1 of This year when there was no new LOE impact from VBP on Organon's products. Moving to volume now, which grew significantly in the Q1. The increase in volume came from our growth pillars, fertility, biosimilars, Nexplanon outside the U.

Speaker 3

S. This quarter and China retail, But also from volume growth in our base business and established brands, particularly demand in China for non VBP brands as well as for products in Europe And the Lomaira region. As Kevin mentioned, some of the favorability in established brands this quarter was due to one time items. If we think about the 15% ex FX revenue growth in the quarter for Established Brands, 18% of that was volume growth Offset by 3% pricing pressure. And in that 18% volume growth, it was about evenly split between one time items And underlying growth in the base business.

Speaker 3

Given the product and geographic diversity in the established brands franchise, Taken alone, none of the one time items would be needle moving. But just to give you an example of the kind of things that we're talking about, the largest among them was a temporary supply issue currently impacting several competitors in the Japanese market. That drove outperformance in Japan this quarter, which compares to weaker performance in Japan in the Q1 of last year when demand was lower due to the expectation that the government was preparing to take action to lower The supply other bucket primarily represents supply sales to Merck and other third parties, which consists of lower margin sales of pharmaceutical products under contract manufacturing arrangements. For the quarter, supply sales were down about $30,000,000 year over year That's consistent with our view that we expect volumes under these arrangements to decline. Finally, foreign exchange translation represented 400 basis points of headwind for this quarter, which is not surprising given the fluctuations in global currency markets and also understanding that Distribution of revenue.

Speaker 3

All of our ex U. S. Regions were nicely ahead of prior year at constant currency and following up on my earlier comment, Here you can see the favorability we had in Japan showing up in the APJ region, the good growth in Nexplanon and in Established Brands in Latin America And the solid performance in China in both Established Brands and Fertility. So now let's take a look at performance by franchise. We'll start with Women's Health on Slide 9.

Speaker 3

Our Women's Health business was down 5% as reported and 3% at constant currency in the Q1 versus prior year, driven by a 5% constant currency decline in Nexplanon and a 6% decline in Nuvery. Those declines are partially offset by continued strength in fertility led by follistim, which grew 20% ex FX in the As Kevin mentioned, as we've explained in prior quarters, Nexplanon's performance can vary quarter to quarter based on customer buying patterns and tenders. Well, we saw good trends exiting the Q1. 2nd quarter is off to a solid start. We continue to expect Nexplanon to deliver double digit revenue On a constant currency basis for the full year 2022.

Speaker 3

Turning to biosimilars on Slide 10. BioSimulus grew 22% as reported and 25% ex FX. We have 5 products in the portfolio, 3 in immunology And 2 in oncology. RENFLEXIS and ONTRASANT are our 2 largest offerings and both are offered in the U. S.

Speaker 3

Globally, RENFLEXIS grew 21 percent driven by continued uptake in the U. S. Since its launch in 2020 July 2020 and partially offset by competitive pressures in Europe. Turning to Established Brands now on Slide 11. Revenue for Established Brands was up 10% as reported and 15% ex FX In the Q1.

Speaker 3

And while we did have volume growth in the base business, this should be taken in the context of, first, there was no VBP impact this quarter. 2nd, there was no LOE in Established Brands this quarter. And 3rd and final, if you look at Slide 5 that Kevin showed earlier, Our Established Brands revenue in the Q1 of 2021 shows a dip, which made Q1 of last year a favorable comparison point. Some of the prior year dynamic was related to Japan, some was COVID and some was related to buying patterns of consumers. So as good as the double digit year on year performance looks, the more important comparison point really is how to establish brands do versus our expectations embedded in the guidance we provided in February.

Speaker 3

And the answer there is quite well and nicely ahead of our expectations. Established Brands getting out of the gate this well in the first Quarter is what underpins Kevin's comment that we now believe revenue growth in this franchise can get close to flat for 2022 at constant currency, Which is better than our estimated longer term trajectory of low single digit erosion. Now turning to our income statement on Slide 12. Our GAAP income statement for the Q1 is available in our earnings release and I encourage investors to look at that important information. Here on Slide 12, we'll be looking at our non GAAP income statement for the Q1.

Speaker 3

For gross profit, we're excluding Purchase accounting amortization and one time items related to the spin off from our GAAP cost of goods sold. Making these straightforward adjustments, In the Q1 of 2022, non GAAP adjusted gross profit was $1,000,000,000 representing gross margin of 66.5% compared with 62.2% in the Q1 of 2021. And again, I'll remind you that at this point in the company's history, it's Hard to draw meaningful comparisons because there were pre spin allocated costs in the Q1 of 2021, which were not incurred this year. Due to an operating lens though, we can point to reduced supply sales, which are lower margin compared with product sales as a driver of the year over year improvement and gross margin. Adjusted EBITDA margins were 41.3% in the 1st quarter and benefited from the higher gross margin As well as operating expenses that due to timing were at their lowest expected point in this year.

Speaker 3

I'll speak more about adjusted margins in a moment when we discuss the outlook for the full year. As we look at debt capitalization and leverage on Slide 13, As of March 31, we have bank debt of $9,100,000,000 netted against cash and cash equivalents of $694,000,000 Using an LTM EBITDA number that does not adjust for acquired in process R and D expense per the SEC's recent guidance, Our net leverage ratio was approximately 3.6 times as of March 31. Our capital allocation priorities remain consistent with Our first priority, of course, is servicing the dividend, which we're targeting at 20% of free cash flow before one time items and which we believe strikes an appropriate balance between reinvesting for growth and delivering near term value for shareholders. Our second priority is organic growth, which will include lifecycle management opportunities for existing products within our portfolio, supported by capital deployed in our manufacturing plants. On the latter, we expect to see annual capital expenditures in the range of 3% to 4% of revenue on an ongoing basis, excluding separation costs.

Speaker 3

Now because these first two priorities are not big absorbers of capital that leaves significant self generated flow for our 3rd capital allocation priority, which I would really say is a tie between execution of external growth plans To develop a new pipeline of new product opportunities, we'll balance that against discretionary debt reduction just like we did in the Q4 of last year. We're committed to maintaining our BBVA2 parent rating and we will continue to make progress towards a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio Stained below 3.5 times. Once again balancing debt reduction with capital deployed for externally sourced growth initiatives. Turning now to guidance on Slide 14. Here we bridge our expected revenue change year on year.

Speaker 3

The biggest difference on this slide from the version that we showed you in February is the FX translation impact, which has gone from an approximate $100,000,000 to $200,000,000 or a headwind of 200 to 300 basis points to an approximate $200,000,000 to $300,000,000 impact or 300 basis points to 4.75 basis point headwind based on where spot rates are today. Operationally at constant currency, The year is unfolding mostly aligned with our expectation. No significant net changes to the business and most of the drivers on this page are identical or even slightly better than our original 2022 guidance. With the data that we have at present, we continue to see 2022 revenue within the original Although with exchange rates don't improve from where they are today, we would likely be at the lower end of our $1,000,000,000 to $6,400,000,000 revenue range. For LOE, we still expect An approximate impact of $100,000,000 as we communicated last quarter coming from NuvaRing and a possible generic competitor for DILAIRA in the U.

Speaker 3

S. As both Kevin and I have reiterated today, 2021 was the last year for which we expected significant LOE revenue impact within our product portfolio. We continue to manage VBP in China and based on our assumption that VBP Round 7 and 8 will be implemented later this year. We think that VBP will be an approximate $100,000,000 impact, It's also the same message we communicated last quarter. We expect about $200,000,000 of price erosion in 2022 and that's in line with the And for volume, We're tracking to $600,000,000 to $700,000,000 of growth for the full year.

Speaker 3

This important component of our guidance remains unchanged And it is supported by our Q1 actual performance. The majority of that volume increase is expected to come from multiple growth pillars Nexplanon, Biosimilars, Fertility, China Retail and to a lesser extent, recent business development activity. We do expect volume growth in our base business and Established Brands as well, once again supported by our Q1 actual results.

Speaker 2

And by

Speaker 3

the way, We estimate that less than 20% of the volume growth that we're projecting can be attributed to COVID recovery. Turning to other guidance metrics on Slide 15, All of which we are affirming today. With regard to adjusted EBITDA margins, looking forward in 2022, the margins favorability we saw in the Q1 will be absorbed and balanced downward over the remaining quarters of 2022 with expected increases in operating expenses related to execution of business Development initiatives that will drive future revenue growth as well as increased supply chain costs driven by higher energy costs as well as inflation. We expect the impact of increased supply chain cost inflation will impact all operating expense line items, although mainly the COGS line. Incremental operating expense for completed business development deals will show up primarily in R and D, Ferendo is an example of that, And SG and A, where the examples would be launch costs for Zaciano and promotional spending around the reacquisition of Marvellon, Mercedon marketing rights in certain Asian countries.

Speaker 3

As operating expenses build throughout the year, the 4th quarter is expected to be the lowest point for adjusted EBITDA margins. And while our range for the full year is being maintained at 34% to 36% just as I discussed for revenue, If exchange rates remain where they currently are, we would be looking at the low end of that range as well for the full year 2022. Important to our guidance practices going forward and along with other companies in our sector, beginning in 2022 Organon will no longer exclude expenses for in process R and D from our non GAAP results. These changes are being made to align with views expressed by the SEC. There were no such expenses in the Q1 of this year or last year.

Speaker 3

The 3rd and 4th quarters of This year along of course with the full year 2021 have been recast to reflect these changes and full detail of that recasting can be found in Tables 7 and 8 of our press release as well as in the appendix slides to this earnings presentation. We're not incorporating an estimate of future in process R and D into our guidance for any business development transactions not yet executed. Our criteria for inclusion will be to have a signed contract. Business development is a strategic priority for us. If future business development activity that involves front and or milestone payments would impact our non GAAP results and would also impact any guidance we might provide.

Speaker 3

And while we'll work to provide details on those relevant payments when we announce the transaction, we do not plan to update our guidance between quarters based solely on those associated payments alone. Wrapping up the financial discussion, we're off to a solid start to the year. Operationally, the business is performing well with strong demand trends in Nexplanon, structural tailwinds in fertility, double digit growth in biosimilars and the stabilization of the Established Brands business that we have been signaling for some time. At this point, I'll turn the call back to the operator for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Jason Gerberry from BofA. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just on biosimilar, Cinera, can you confirm, do you have a target action date yet for the high concentration Version of the product. And then what do you hope to benefit from an interchangeability study? I mean, in terms of timing, Presumably, you're not going to be 1st and by the time you have it, a good chunk of the volume will be in biosimilars.

Speaker 4

So Just curious sort of what you see as the value of running that study? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes, Jason. So Kevin, so good question. So in regards to HEDLIMA, Our HUMIRA biosimilar, we are planning to launch in July of next year. So it's rapidly approaching. We've got exciting plans for HEDLIMA and In regards to and we think it's going to be a very important contributor to our future growth.

Speaker 2

But in regards to interchangeability And the importance of interchangeability. Clearly, I think that's one of the many variables that various PBMs are looking at In terms of the fact that those variables being interchangeability, I believe real world evidence, do you have Does this product has asset been launched in other markets and how is it doing and what's the issue, what's the safety and regulatory issues around it? Innovative applicator, high concentration High concentration dose is being actually being launched and we have all of that. Now nobody is going to be coming to the market, Jason, at the time of launch Or at the time of LOE of HUMIRA with a perfect profile of what you're looking for. Some may have interchangeability And high concentrate 3 concentration, but others may not have real world evidence, may not have the type of backbone that we have With Samsung in terms of their production capabilities and excellence in being able to manufacture.

Speaker 2

So we feel very good about The fact that interchangeability will be one of many variables that PBMs are looking for and by the way probably most important that people are not considering In terms of the biosimilar segment is your relationships with the PBMs. Do you have long term relationships? Is there a lot of trust built up there? Are there a long history of being able to work with it and develop credibility with these folks? And we do, back to the fact that Many of these people that we have in the biosimilar group in the U.

Speaker 2

S. Have been working on these assets since before the days of the Been for almost a decade now and have really good relationships with payers in order to be able to get formulary access, which is a Key variable in terms of how well you do in the business.

Speaker 1

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Terence Flynn from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks so much. Maybe two questions for me. One, a follow-up on Headlima. I'm assuming you've already had some preliminary discussions regarding contracting in 2023.

Speaker 5

So just wondering if you're confident you'll be able to secure a decent piece of the volume Second half of the year, as I think some investors are assuming that biosimilars now really won't be able to participate until 2024 in a meaningful way. So that's kind of the first question. And then as you think about the rest of the year for China, maybe Matt just remind us What's embedded in your guidance for the outlook there, particularly given some of the rolling lockdowns On the COVID side, just help us think about any impactors that already baked into your guidance? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes, Terence. So I will I'll start with the first part of your question regards to Hadley as a follow on. We believe 2023 is going to be very busy. There's no doubt. There's quite a few assets coming to the market, quite a few players will be essentially second to market.

Speaker 2

We do believe that The way that PBMs are going to approach this business is not going to be a full wholesale like a small molecule segment of a shift, but rather there's going to be

Speaker 6

probably I would guess 2

Speaker 2

to Probably I would guess 2 to 3, it depends on the PBM, 2 to 3 biosimilars on any given formulary, Probably, obviously, the originator will be there as well as a few others. And so I think the others being all the variables that I talked about, The citrate 3 high concentration dose, the ultimate interchangeability indication coming down the line, the real world evidence, the Unique applicator and so on and so forth. And so I do believe that probably PBMs currently as we speak are working on the 2023 contracts. And so there will be some volume, but clearly it's going to start to And so there will be some volume, but clearly it's going to start to increase. And then in 2024 and beyond, you'll see much more of a penetration.

Speaker 2

But ultimately getting on formulary is going to be critical in the near term as we start to come online and we're very happy that we've got an excellent And Hadlima, we've got good relationships with the payers and various PBMs across the country and we're ready to go. I'll hand it over to Matt to talk about your question regarding second half

Speaker 3

of business in China. So for China, we did not see much of an impact in our business related to COVID lockdowns. We have factored though into our forecast For the rest of the year, an impact in Q2, recovery in the latter Half of the year. So we feel like we've incorporated appropriate consideration for COVID lockdowns In China that can be absorbed within the affirmation of guidance and we see really on a constant currency basis, China will grow this year.

Operator

Question comes from the line of Umer Raffat from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hi. This is Eric calling in for Umer. Just had a quick question on the next one on R and D. How is recruitment going for the 5 year study? Has COVID slowed down any timelines there?

Speaker 6

And separately, is Organon planning any trials in other indications like dysmenorrhea or menagia?

Speaker 1

Hi, Eric. Thanks for the question. So with regards to the enrollment for the 5 year indication, it's generally on track. We saw about a month slowdown Based on the COVID impact, but we're not concerned that we're not going to bring this in on the previously shared timeline. And with regards to additional indications, the team is taking a look at the additional indications right now and formulating our development strategy around Our key asset of NexoMans.

Speaker 6

Got it. And just the last one on biosimilar growth. You mentioned drivers before in Australia and Brazil. Could you give some more detail on what kind of trends you're seeing there, maybe on uptake or Upcoming tender offers?

Speaker 2

Yes. So Eric, in regards to so there's 2 parts that I look at in that question. First of all, as I mentioned, U. S. Obviously is going to be the key market, the key market for HADLIMA, for Hemera biosimilar As you start to look at our overall biosimilar business footprint across the world.

Speaker 2

But part of that is the real world evidence. And as you said, We have Canada, we have Australia as 2 countries that have been doing very well with ultimately and growing double digits, strong double digit with those products. And the uptake has been really nicely across all of late 2021 2022. We see great movement in those two countries. Now having said that, back to the real world evidence aspect of it, Biogen, which is a partner Samsung for Hadlima in Europe has had long term experience with Hadlima in Europe and everything is looking really well in terms of Gaining a sense of confidence by PBMs in the U.

Speaker 2

S. For this product that we do have quite a bit of experience with this product.

Speaker 6

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Shibutani from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to ask 2 questions relating to the women's health business, particularly to the contraception Focus area. Can you comment about the market in general, what you're seeing in terms of U. S.

Speaker 4

Growth, perhaps the share of the Larks in general, And any color as well on contraception broadly about gaining further approvals outside the U. S? And then within that specific to Nexplanon, can you talk about some of the metrics further? I think you provided about the U. S.

Speaker 4

International mix had been shifting from 70five-twenty 5 to more of a 2 thirds. How do you see that trending? And then maybe more

Speaker 6

Consumer. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Hi, Chris. Thanks for the question. Let me address that first part in terms of the Lark movement, in terms of growth. LARX have been growing worldwide as well as in the U. S.

Speaker 2

And I think that's a shift a lot of times from the daily pill business segment into LARC both in terms of long acting reversible contraceptives, by the way, as well as short acting reversible contraceptives As well, like for example, NuvaRing and others. And in regards to how is it going with Nexplanon? As I mentioned, we had a Past Q4 of last year was our all time high. There was a bit of pull forward because we had a price increase in the end of last year. There's a bit of pulling forward in terms of the overall business, but and so that's why we saw a relatively Slow January, but when I start to look at the February March April data, it clearly shows that there is sequential growth month over month over month.

Speaker 2

And we feel that there's very strong signals in terms of sales from distributors to physicians as we a lot of the business This is Brian Bill. In clinics, that is clearly showing a very strong kind of receptivity to Some of the things that we're doing as you mentioned in terms of the digital media issues that we're doing as well as other things that we're engaging in. It's an all time high In terms of what we've been able to do versus previous the previous 2 years in terms of the clinical training program, In terms of all the certifications that we're doing, we are seeing tremendous improvement of, for example, when you mentioned in terms of nextplanon.com, our Internet site, so we have a physician locator exceeded benchmark, Almost 32,000 searches out of 58,000 total visitors in the Q1. As I mentioned in my initial statements, we started a new telehealth capability@nexplanon.com and in April 2022 to enable women to immediately talk to a healthcare professional about Nexplanon And her contraception offer. So we're doing quite a bit in terms of tactically when you talk about rep visits being back to pre pandemic level, when you talk about Clinical training program certification on the 1 minute insertion and 2 minute removal being really at all time high since the pre pandemic phase.

Speaker 2

When you talk about our digital strategies in regards to the things that we're doing on nextxadon.com as well as our social media campaigns, We have really, really great and I'm very confident that for the year we'll see the same type of double digit growth as we saw in last year in 2021.

Speaker 4

And to follow on, you had commented previously that there was about a 20% decline in wellness business as a proxy perhaps for patients Returning to engagement with practitioners on the wellness front that has bearing for Nexplanon, any update on what you're seeing trends there?

Speaker 2

Yes, that's a great point, Chris. Let me say this that that number continues to stay Kind of lingering at around 20% in terms of a reduction of women seeking health visits, health checks. We're hoping that that Does better over time that people are able to move forward because remember though that there's been an increase in telemedicine. So telemedicine is an increase and I think that's Probably taking the place of some of these women who are not going to seek help directly in terms of their health checks. And we think that that's kind of stabilizing to the point as the fact that the pandemic has kind of changed the market dynamics And I think that there are some women, especially, who are going to getting new forms of health care that is non traditional as Opposed to what they used to do before in terms of going to the office for those health checks, health visits.

Speaker 2

But having said that, Nexplanon continues to do I think extremely well because of all the activities that we do. So for example, For the whole market, you might see a 20% reduction, but for Nexplanon, we see double digit growth because we have all time highs in a number of areas Because of the fact that the promise of Organon was really about putting emphasis, support, resourcing, senior management attention It's an excellent one and we're starting to see some of the dividends pay off in that in the early phases.

Speaker 4

Appreciate the commentary. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Good to talk to you, Chris.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of David Amsellem from Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hey, thanks. So just had a couple of questions. First, just wanted to get your overall thoughts On vertical integration and biosimilars, obviously, you have shared economics Here in light of what the access did with Biocon, I wanted to just pick your brain on That model, something that's vertically integrated versus what you are trying to accomplish with your distribution model And how you see, I guess, the wisdom of what you're doing in Longer term about the direction of the established brands portfolio ex U. S, how you think That sort of a natural rate of erosion, if you will, in terms of price or how competitive dynamics come into And what's a good way of thinking about erosion longer term for that business? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks for the question, David. Thanks for the question, David. Let me just answer address the first question in regards to Around biosimilars and doing a vertical play there, we are very comfortable both in terms of our relationship with Samsung, which is going almost now almost a decade long, In terms of the way that we perceive our part of the overall business the business process going forward, Look, I mean, our focus right now is you don't know what really is going to happen to biosimilars in a decade from now. Things could change in terms of the overall erosion of price being more aggressive And there are a number of variables out there. We don't see this as a very strong opportunistic play at least for the next 6 to 10 years.

Speaker 2

And beyond that, we'll have to see. So as a result of where we put our capital allocation, it's really better for us to really focus on Our vision, a better and healthier every day for every woman, which is to grow our women's health portfolio. We see opportunities there. We see kind of what I would call responsible valuations in the space and that's what we've done the 5 deals we've done before even being a year old in the market. So We see biosimilars as a very important contributor to growth, but we also see the opportunity of being very smart in terms of capital allocation and putting it where We see long term viability of women's health as being a real strong growth player going over for time.

Speaker 2

Now in regards to the second question of Established Brands, specifically ex U. S. Business, look, we saw a phenomenal quarter, but that That was predicated on a number of one time events that were very positive in our favor. If I look at the long term view, I've had a lot of experience with these products. I've worked with these products for well over 25 years.

Speaker 2

I know them well and I knew coming into this spin That with the right type of attention, the right type of resourcing, the right type of focus, entrepreneurial focus country by country because there's no single country or single region that has the same level of opportunities, they all vary from one to the other, that this business could go from a very strong erosion pattern, Almost double digit erosion to actually being flat. And now over the last quarters, the 3 quarters we've proven that now given the fact that we've had Strong double digit growth of Established Brands, 2 thirds of our overall company in the Q1 that I want to temper that because of the fact that there was again some Very favorable one time event, but we see some headwinds coming over in the next in the second half of the year that we expected, we planned for things like volume based procurement round 7, Round 8, things like for example pricing for adazette, our 2nd biggest product in Europe, things like for example our Annual review that you get in Japan for some of these products. These are some of the pricing headwinds that we factored in.

Speaker 2

But overall, I am very, very confident that this year we'll see Flat business overall and potentially if things go our way, it could be slightly better. So for the long I would say it would be very, very low single digit erosion, but for the short term, I would say flat.

Speaker 7

All right. That's very helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, David.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Greg Fraser from Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks for taking the questions. I apologize if you covered this already, but on Established Brands, how much of that strong growth in Q1 was related to easy comps and the one time items that you called out versus fundamental drivers that And then on Nexpynon, do you expect new patient share to be driven primarily by patients switch from daily products or is there an opportunity to Take share from IUDs. And I'm curious if an IUD is something that might make sense for your portfolio. Thank you.

Speaker 3

So for the first part of your question, Established Brands for the Q1, we had about Half and half really. I would say half would be attributable to one time items and the other half was just underlying volume growth in the base business.

Speaker 2

And in regards to the second question, with regards to Nexplanon and where ultimately where we're going to get our business For in the future, we're really focused on a couple of things. Unintended pregnancies for the last decade has been hovering around 50% worldwide, Just south of that in the U. S. In the high 40s. That's clearly an unmet need that needs to be addressed.

Speaker 2

And we do feel that, for example, The biggest opportunity we have is from women who are not very happy with pills and ultimately the daily compliance issues that continue to lead to unintended pregnancies being way, way too high. And that could be one area It's being way, way too high and that could be one area that is definitely going to be the key area of moving over. But I don't think that we're going to be fighting against other larks. I do believe though the big opportunities because we've only got about 10% share worldwide in terms of value and a much lower number in terms of Volume and so there's a huge runway for us and clearly, COCs or pills are the number one Prescribed product out there and there's clearly a lot of dissatisfaction in a number of communities in terms of women really wanting to have something that's convenient, Much higher efficacy rate and so simple and easy to administer. So I think that's really the way that we look at the future of Nexplanon.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Medercovic from Cowen. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Thank you for the question. Another on HADLIMA, if you don't mind. Are there any external circumstances that would inhibit Organon from launching HEDLIMA in 2023? For instance, are you reasonably certain that other IP maybe not contemplated by the contract won't block such a launch?

Speaker 2

So Michael, I don't see any issues right now. I think we're late in the game right now and all those issues have been worked out In regards to IP challenges and all the things of that nature, so I don't see anything right now in my view That would inhibit us from launching in July of next year.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Presenters, you may continue.

Speaker 2

So I'd like to just some concluding remarks. Look, in Organon's short history as an independent company, We've made tremendous progress executing on our stated business objectives. From the outset, we have known that the right level of investment and management focus would enable All three of our franchises to reveal their true potential. That is what we are now seeing. Of particular significance is the stabilization of our Established Brands business.

Speaker 2

I am delighted with our efforts to unlock the full potential of these brands and to deliver sustained Significant cash flows to fund our vision of a better and healthier every day for every woman. We're well on our way to building a suite of products that important unmet medical needs in women's health and our ability to deliver on what we say and remain focused on making a difference for women is what sets Organon Apart. Thank you for your time and attention today and we do look forward to speaking with you throughout the quarter. Thank you very much.

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