Horizon Bancorp Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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January 26, 2023

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Horizon Bancorp Conference Call to discuss Financial Results for the Q4 and Full Year of 20 22. Please note this event is being recorded. Before turning the call over to the management, please remember that today's call may contain statements that are forward looking in nature. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed, including those factors noted in the slide presentation. Additional information about factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the Horizon current 10 ks and later filings.

Operator

In addition, management may refer to certain non GAAP financial measures that are intended to help Understand Horizon's business. Reconciliations for these measures are contained in the presentation. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward looking statements made during the call. If anyone does not already have a copy The press release and supplemental presentation issued by Horizon yesterday, you can access it at the company's website, www.horizonbank.com. Representing Horizon today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Craig Dwight President, Thomas Prane EVP and Chief Financial Officer, Mark Secor EVP and Chief Commercial Banking Officer, Lynn Kerber and EVP and Senior Retail and Mortgage Lending Officer, Noe Nahara.

Operator

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Craig Dwight, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Thank you. And over to you, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Rocco, and good morning. And thank you for participating in Horizon Bancorp's 4th quarter earnings Our comments today will follow the investor presentation and press release that we published yesterday, January 25. Horizon's Police report record earnings for 2022 Q4 that continues our momentum into 2023 With strong commercial and consumer loan growth, efficiencies gained from closing 7 offices and effective expense control. The challenges during the quarter were the magnitude and velocity of the short term interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee and the corresponding increased competition for deposits, which drove our cost of deposits up at a faster rate in the 4th quarter. The outlook for 2023 calls for the Federal Reserve Bank to slow the pace and magnitude of raising the Fed's targeted interest rate with an expectation that our deposit betas will also moderate during the year.

Speaker 1

In addition, we see 2023 as a transition year as we continue to focus on reinvesting cash flows and maturing loans into higher yielding assets. Starting on our presentation slide number 4. Horizon met or exceeded most of our 2022 goals as announced In Q4 2021 and revised upward in the Q2 of 2022, total loans Excluding PPP and sole commercial loan participations increased 14.6% for the year led by consumer and commercial loan growth of 30 point 6% and 11.4%, respectively. Thomas Kramer, President, will provide more detail on Horizon's loan growth in a few minutes. Other notable Horizon financial metrics for the year include return on average assets of 1.24% and return on average equity of 13.66%.

Speaker 1

Given the size of our balance sheet, efficient operation, talented workforce and solid additions to our team, Horizon is well positioned to capitalize on significant organic loan growth as we focus on shifting our balance sheet to higher yielding assets and continue our disciplined approach to expense control. So why invest in Horizon? Horizon continues to report solid returns with a low credit risk profile due to our diversified balance sheet, Excellent liquidity and low cost core deposits. Horizon's historical credit metrics, even during the Great Recession, have outperformed the U. S.

Speaker 1

Commercial banks as a result of consistent underwriting in active portfolio management. Horizon's deposit mix has improved compared to our pre pandemic deposit mix as a result of the stabilizing of prior year's 14 branch acquisition And good organic growth. We are located in attractive Midwest growth markets where real estate values are not as volatile As in other areas of the country and where our manufacturing outlook calls for continued expansion. Regional infrastructure improvements are Attracting record inflows of private investment to Indiana and Michigan and include the commuter rail expansion in Northwest Indiana, known as double track In West Lake County Extensions, which is forecasted to have multi $1,000,000,000 positive the impact is Northwest Indiana. The investment in Quantum Communication Life between Chicago, Lafayette and South Bend, Indiana.

Speaker 1

Indiana's $6,000,000,000 state surplus with plans to increase infrastructure spending and continued outbound migration by Illinois businesses and residents as they move into our attractive markets due to our quality of life, affordability and lower taxes. Horizon has a proven history of organic growth, supplemented by strategic acquisitions as evidenced by our compounded annual growth rate For 2,002 through 2022 for average assets at 12.7% and net income at 15.2%. In addition, Horizon has historically outpaced the change in GDP, which clearly demonstrates our ability to add market share, attract talent and grow organically. This is further supported in reviewing Horizon's top 10 deposit markets. 5 were entered into the acquisitions And 5, representing our legacy or de novo markets.

Speaker 1

In the acquired markets, we increased market share over time, which results of hiring and retaining local talent and our disciplined approach to market development. Since 2010, our legacy and de novo markets I've also demonstrated our ability to increase market share. A key long term focus for Horizon is digital transformation. Horizon's advantages in technology over other community banks include our in house CRM and core platforms, resulting in a lower cost per transaction than our peers and the ability to expedite the onboarding of new fintech partners And flexibility in data management by not relying on a core service provider. Horizon is able to select technology partners based On best in class and if we deliver strategic products and services at the best price with the optimum flexibility.

Speaker 1

Our in house core strategy has also proven very effective for integrating acquisitions, including our most recent 14 branch deal. As a result of our investments in technology, our digital transactions increased from 44% in 2018 to 70% of total transactions In 2022, we increased online consumer deposit account openings to 19% in 2022 and 84% of our online chats Horizon manages and deploys capital Efficiently, as evidenced by our most recent completed integration of 14 acquired branches and continuing focus on organic growth in 2022. Through the Q4 end, Horizon Bank continues to report strong regulatory capital ratios that exceed the regulatory definition for well capitalized banks. In addition, Horizon has a consistent dividend policy as we fully expect to continue our 30 year plus of uninterrupted quarterly cash dividends. We last increased our dividend in the Q2 of 2022, reporting a 6.3% increase from $0.15 to $0.16 per common share, which represents our 10th dividend increase in the past 11 years.

Speaker 1

Horizon's historical dividend increases are aligned with earnings growth, Sound Capital Management and as of December 31, 2022, our dividend yield was attractive at 4.2%. Now I'd like to congratulate Thomas Prame on his recent appointment to Chief Executive Officer of Horizon Bancorp, Inc. And Horizon Bank That's after June 1, 2023. We're delighted with an addition to the team with big bank experience and passion for strategic planning, technology and focus to move the company forward. Thomas Prane and our senior leadership team has what it takes to continue the bank's success.

Speaker 1

It's now my pleasure to introduce Thomas Prine. Thomas?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Craig, and appreciate the comments. As mentioned previously, it was another solid quarter in total loan growth of $145,000,000 or just over 12% annualized. That's excluding our PPP and sole loan participations. Highlighting the quarter was our commercial balances, increasing $63,000,000 or just over 10% annualized. Net commercial loan fundings of $98,000,000 was well balanced across our commercial asset classes and our markets.

Speaker 2

The commercial loan pipeline is positioned at 100 $34,000,000 and continues to provide confidence in our ability to generate mid to high single digit growth in 2023 with yields continuing to increase as new Our pay downs and our payoffs. As we transition to Slide 16, consumer loan balances increased $49,000,000 or 21% annualized. As we discussed in Q3, the short term nature of the consumer portfolio creates opportunities to shift loan growth to higher yielding assets. In Q4, we enhanced the pricing structure of our indirect lending, increasing production yields and slowing the historical portfolio growth. This strategy was coupled with an acquisition of high quality, variable rate home equity loans that provided over 300 basis points in improved yield when compared to the indirect These loans are also well positioned with higher floors to protect against potential down rate environments.

Speaker 2

We Looking at Slide 17 with mortgage, our Q4 production and fee income results aligned with industry trends And the team also completed proactive steps to further reduce staffing levels and overall costs relative to volumes. Mortgage warehouse balances also reflected Street trends at $69,000,000 down slightly $4,000,000 from Q3. In concert with the consumer portfolio, we continue to be smart in our balance sheet deployment With mortgage balances growing about $18,000,000 in Q4 with higher new production yields compared to payoffs and paydowns. Looking at Slide 18, our credit metrics remain strong as evidenced by our 0.01% charge offs And loan non performing loans in the quarter and also the last several quarters. Additionally, our allowance for credit losses is well positioned at 1.21 percent of total loans.

Speaker 2

This is down from 1.27 percent in the 3rd quarter. This is primarily due to low historical charge off levels An improvement in specific segments adjustments such as hotels that was offset by increased allocation for consumer loans in indirect auto. As we look at Slide 19, Horizon's historical credit metrics display our ability to outperform the market during the previous economic cycle. We attribute this to our consistent and conservative underwriting practices. As Craig mentioned earlier, the strength of the markets we serve And the talent within our local bankers and credit teams.

Speaker 2

As this graph shows, the performance of our credit metrics lessens the impact from credit cycles And we exit the cycle at a faster pace. As we move into a fluid economic environment, we feel confident our current credit profile will produce very similar results. At this time, I'll transition to Mark for highlights into our financial highlights.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Thomas. DRIVEN reported a solid quarter for net income and loan growth as interest rates continued to increase in the competitive landscape for funding and pricing intensified. Starting with Slide 21, 4th quarter net income results were primarily impacted by lower net interest income, offset partially by improvements in non interest income and expenses compared to the Q3. Annualized total loan growth of 13% excluding PPP loans and sole commercial participation was a strong contributor to the quarter. Slide 22, the company's diversified business model has provided leading returns over various periods.

Speaker 3

Over the last 10 years, Horizon has produced a return on average tangible common equity greater than peers 1% of the time and was 35% less volatile. This was through economic cycles, including the recovery from the Great Recession, The pandemic shutdown and reopening. In addition, during the last 3 years through September 30, 2022 peer data, Horizon beat the KRX index for return on tangible average tangible common equity and return on average assets 92 85% of the time, respectively. Slide 23. As deposit betas increased during the quarter, deposit balances remained flat.

Speaker 3

However, we are experiencing movement from lower cost deposit products to higher yielding money markets and CDs, resulting in the balance sheet continuing to be liability sensitive. As a result, at an up 100 basis point parallel shock as of December 31, we model Approximately $900,000 excluding the change in loan fees, purchase accounting and dealer reserve amortization, which was in line with the modeling at the end of the Q3. Contributing to these results are the expected deposit betas used for rising rates, which currently range from 6.5% for consumer deposits to 60% on public funds with an average beta for non maturity interest bearing deposits Approximately 31%. The actual beta for the 4th quarter was 24% for non maturity interest bearing deposits compared to 23% in the Q3. Including CDs, the beta for this interest rate cycle has been 24% with a projection of interest rates peaking in the Q1 of 2023, the estimated full interest rate cycle Beta is estimated to be 28%.

Speaker 3

We have approximately $2,200,000,000 of assets, representing 30% of earning which are expected to reprice within the next 12 months. Included in this estimate are adjustable rate loans, representing approximately 90,000,000 that adjust immediately $900,000,000 that adjust immediately with short term rate moves and additional $400,000,000 that adjust within 90 days and $60,000,000 that will adjust throughout the year. The estimated remaining $840,000,000 in assets that will reprice represent investment cash flows, principal loan payments and prepayments and loan maturities. This liquidity is forecasted to fund the growth in our higher yielding originations and increased overall portfolio yields. Slide 24.

Speaker 3

During the Q4, we determined that a revision For the treatment of the indirect dealer reserve asset and related amortization expense should be made to prior periods. This revision has no impact to net income or total assets and was determined to be immaterial. The results of this revision decreased other assets Expense of the dealer reserve asset currently expensed as non interest expense and loan expense is now recognized as a reduction to loan interest income That reduces the net reduces net interest income. The results of this revision reduces the net interest margin and reduces non interest expenses. All prior periods have been revised for this revision.

Speaker 3

The details are included in the press release and the presentation for the change to the balance sheet, income statement and Cheers. Slide 25. In the 4th quarter, the adjusted net interest margin decreased 16 basis points and adjusted net interest income decreased $2,600,000 primarily due to $1,200,000 in lower loan fee income and $490,000 higher in There is volatility in the recognition of purchase accounting, loan fees and the amount of dealer reserve amortization that will affect net interest income and the margin. With the pace of rate increases anticipated to slow and potentially stabilizing and decreasing toward the end of 'twenty three, We believe that Horizon is nearing the low end of its margin and is expected to begin to stabilize over the next two quarters. This will be the result of assets Slide 26.

Speaker 3

Our stable deposit base continues to provide core funding as rates have rapidly increased. The increasing betas in some deposit flow from lower cost to higher cost products has increased funding costs, but Excuse me, they still provide a strong spread to the earning asset yield of 3.88% for the quarter with a total cost of deposits of 71 basis points. By maintaining a disciplined approach with deposit pricing, Total cost deposits increased 43 basis points during the quarter compared to the average Fed fund rate increase of 147 basis points, while deposit account retention remains strong. Slide 27. The core funding mix, which is non interest and interest bearing deposits, has remained stable and has slightly improved compared to the pre pandemic funding.

Speaker 3

At the end of 2019, core funding was 65% of total funding at the end of 2022. Core funding was 68% of total funding at the end of 'twenty three, a 3% increase. Stimulus money, the branch acquisition in 2021 And the long term customer base have all contributed to providing consistent core funding. Slide 28. A lower unrealized loss on available for sale securities in the 4th quarter helped increase tangible common equity from 6.25% at September 30 to 6.56% as of December 31.

Speaker 3

This is a result of the inversion in yield curve reducing the unrealized losses On the longer duration AFS investments, because we have the ability and the intent to hold all investments to maturity, these unrealized losses are we'll continue to fund our growth without restricting our ability to utilize our capital to fund organic growth in the future. Slide 29. Non interest expenses were 1.84% of average assets for the quarter compared to 1.91% last quarter. This was partially attributed To the reduction of direct expenses from changes in business cycle, including mortgage and indirect lending. These expense percentages reflect the revision for the dealer reserve Expense management will continue to be a focus in 2023 to help offset lower revenues.

Speaker 3

Slide 30. As competition for funding has quickly increased in the latter part of 2022 and expected to continue into 2023, there is an increased focus on balance sheet liquidity. Due to the structure of our balance sheet, which includes the majority of our investment portfolio unpledged, we have approximately $2,700,000,000 of available liquidity from borrowings, Brokered CDs and unpledged investments. In this time of uncertainty, safe and sound liquidity provides additional strength to our balance sheet. Now Craig will provide some final thoughts.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Mark. To summarize Horizon Bancorp's key franchise highlights, Horizon is a growth company as evidenced by 20 years of compounded annual growth rates for net income and total assets of 15.2% and 12 point 7% respectively. Our balance sheet has diversified loan portfolio with a product mix and geography With ample liquidity and cash flows to fund future growth into higher yielding assets. Horizon's asset Altium has historically outperformed the industry in varying economic cycles. The combination of Horizon's historical solid returns and average assets and average equity, Our ability to increase market share in our top 10 markets and weather varying economic cycles, our diversified balance sheet and current high dividend yield All provides the torque that we have an attractive long term investment.

Speaker 1

This concludes our prepared remarks today. And now I'll ask the operator to please open it up for questions. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Today's first question comes from Terry McEvoy with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Craig, just maybe a question for you. In your prepared remarks, you talked about 2023 being a transition year. And Were you just specifically talking about the margin outlook and the interest rate sensitivity or should we read into that more than just the margin?

Speaker 1

No, I was focusing on margin sensitivity as well as the transition to a new CEO, so both.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. And then maybe you talked about, Mark, the margin kind of bottoming out. I was wondering if you could maybe frame some Expectations about the Q1 based on the interest rate environment in the forward curve and maybe specifically net interest income, When do you think that is positioned to bottom based on kind of the loan growth and the outlook you just ran through?

Speaker 3

Yes, Terry. Thanks for the question. I think as we're going into the Q1, we will see The additional pressure with some traditional, hopefully smaller rate increases, we Because we have the borrowing side, the short term, we impact that most of that impact hit us with all the rate increase through the 4th quarter And our rate sensitive deposits also moved during the quarter. So we anticipate less. Although when you're getting into the cycle, the betas on the rate increases are higher, which Why we see that the cycle beta right now is about 24% and we see it increasing to about 28% For the full cycle, assuming that rates will flatten out or the rate increases will flatten out in the Q1.

Speaker 3

So I think the Q1 is a Challenging then is our assets reprice going into the rest of the year. We would anticipate to see the stabilization And then an improvement as the assets reprice.

Speaker 4

And then maybe just one last quick one. The CET1 is really strong at 13.6 and nice to see some recovery in the TCE ratio. And when the stock hit 1.3 of book, Is the buyback being discussed at all?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think as we and Craig

Speaker 5

and Thomas, you can comment too.

Speaker 3

I think as we see stabilization in the economic factors, I think that is a discussion to have. And we want to see we want to make sure that you have a good outlook for credit and economic issues.

Speaker 4

And I should say, welcome to the call, Thomas, and thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Thank you, Jerry.

Operator

And our next question today comes from David Long of Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning, everyone. And let me say congratulations, Craig as well on the planned retirement and Thomas to adding the CEO role. So congratulations to both of you. My question is looking at the deposit base here and you're at 22% at non interest bearing. Where do you see this going over the course of the next couple of quarters when you think about a couple more rate hikes baked in?

Speaker 2

Thanks for the question, David. This is Thomas. We anticipate that our non interest bearing portfolio Relatively flat quarter over quarter. It's a very granular portfolio on the consumer side, specifically as we brought in some of The new assets are the new teams from TCF. It does have a little bit of volatility with some seasonality around the public funds, That's on an average to average quarter basis, it should be relatively consistent.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks, Thomas. And then Thinking about the borrowings, obviously, up year over year loan growth, it sounds like or loan demand still seems like it's prevalent. If you do have a flat environment, How are you going to fund that? Will you will your use of FHLB increase?

Speaker 7

And where do you see overall The borrowings as a percentage as you move through the year this year?

Speaker 3

Yes. It's twofold. The cash flows from the debt Portfolio flowing into higher yielding assets into the loan portfolio will be 1 funding source to help keep borrowings Steady through loan volume growth. The other is we are We have been successful and continue to look at retail CD opportunities to be able to use CDs to fund the growth and to help maintain the borrowing. Our goal would be to try to keep the borrowings fairly stable if we can succeed at getting those deposit flows.

Speaker 3

Got it.

Speaker 7

Thanks, Mark. And then just as a follow-up, when you talk about the cash Do you have a contractual number that of cash flows that you're expected for expected to see in 2023?

Speaker 3

From the investment portfolio, we right now, it looks like it's about $130,000,000 to 150,000,000 And that range has slowed due to prepayment speeds, what we originally had we're seeing last year or into the 1st part of this year. So that would be cash flow. Additionally, as I've discussed, we've got $840,000,000 of loans that will reprice payments so forth that includes the investment portfolio that can reprice into higher yielding assets.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Operator

And our next question today comes from Nathan Race with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes. Hi, everyone. Good morning and appreciate you taking the questions. I just want to echo David's comments and congratulating Craig on Your upcoming retirement and Thomas as well on the promotion to CEO. I guess, first question, just as we kind of zoom out on the margin outlook perhaps into the back half of this year, Just given the liability sense of nature of the balance sheet, if we were to get 1 or 2 Fed rate cuts, do you think that would drive some margin expansion Under that scenario, how are you guys kind of thinking about the margins you're expecting for the perhaps more

Speaker 3

Yes, Nate, thanks for the question. Yes, I think the nature of the balance sheet and what we're modeling, With the lag of repricing on the asset size versus the loan portfolio, that would continue to improve. And then the immediate repricing of short term borrowings, and we would look to be As aggressive bringing rates down as the market would allow as we've seen an increase here on the deposit side, especially the More rate sensitive deposits, so yes.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. And if the kind of loan growth environment or the loan growth environment were to soften to some degree, what potentially exists maybe unwind some of the higher cost borrowing that you guys have brought on balance sheet, just to maybe kind of reduce the overall liability sensitive Nature of the balance sheet, again assuming kind of overall loan growth kind of slows to some degree in 2023?

Speaker 5

Yes. I think we're going

Speaker 3

to see the loan growth projection will probably require some funding. And I guess I think we would like see that funding come from the retail side of CDs. But if we had opportunities, we would definitely be replacing those Short term liabilities or short term borrowings.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. Just one last one for me just on the kind of reserve outlook from here. Obviously, credit Metrics continue to improve generally in the quarter. How are you guys kind of thinking about where you can expect the reserves kind of settle out maybe as Percentage of loans are on an absolute dollar basis as 2023 progresses and kind of absent any Meaningful seasonal adjustments relative to the two factors.

Speaker 5

Good morning, Nathan. This is Lynn Kerber. How are

Speaker 3

you? Hi, Lenny. Good.

Speaker 5

Hi. So as far as the allowance go, we continue to work within our model. And as you know, there's different components to that and drivers. We are seeing some change in mix as far as outlook for possible recession. So we've seen some Increase related to some of the econometrics and as Thomas mentioned earlier, just overall consumer area and watchful in that.

Speaker 5

Meanwhile, we've seen some reduction in some of the commercial sectors that we had heavier allocations on because we've been performing really well. And so, personally, I think the outlook is pretty stable, but some of that's going to depend on the economic conditions, of course.

Speaker 6

And is that stable outlook, the economic conditions on an absolute dollar basis on reserve or what is the percentage of loans?

Speaker 5

I would say percentage of loans.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. I appreciate all the help. Thanks again.

Operator

And our next question today comes from Damon DelMonte with KBW. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hello, everybody. This is Matt Ranks filling in for Damon DelMonte. Congrats to Craig and Tom. Most of my questions have been asked and But just as a follow-up to Nate's questions on credit, could you provide a little color on your office segment and what types of exposures you have there?

Speaker 5

Yes. Thank you. We have let me just turn to that page. We have both medical and general office exposure. Just for some context though, I know that there's been a lot of focus on office exposure in a lot of the metropolitan areas.

Speaker 5

And Horizon, as you know, our primary markets, are considered midsized cities. So Grand Rapids, Troy, Indianapolis, and those have all been performing very well for us. So I would say overall, there's really been no Deterioration in credit metrics, lease rates have been maintained and We traditionally done the business with very strong sponsors and some conservative loan values in that space. So it's been performing pretty well for us. If you turn to Page 35, we've got our office metrics there.

Speaker 5

As of Twelvethirty onetwenty 2, we had $164,000,000 and 6.6% of our commercial portfolio, 3.9 percent of the total bank portfolio, so not a significant exposure.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you very much. I'll step back.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Martin with Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning guys.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Brian. Good morning.

Speaker 4

And just a I guess, one touch on the expense side of things, maybe if I missed it. Just Your thoughts about how to think about expense. I know you guys have talked and met your goal on the expense assets. Just thinking about that as you go into 'twenty three, Is there a new target on that if that's kind of how you're still thinking about things or any outlook you can provide on just kind of your expense guide?

Speaker 3

Yes, Brian. We still expect it to be under the 2% and also Maybe in the range of 185, 195. The we've as we commented, we kept expenses lower this quarter, some due to business Cycle reduction in staff in those business cycles that are slowed. We that kind of flow into the Q1. A lot of the reduction was done right at the end of the year.

Speaker 3

So that's going to give some kind of help to expense control. And then just an overall, just in this environment, A hard look at the global expenses and wanting to be as cautious as we can in where we're spending. So we anticipate that expenses should be in that range coming into 'twenty three.

Speaker 4

Got you. Okay. Thanks, Mark. And then just the loan pipeline, unless I missed it, just kind of your if someone, I guess, can just give a little color on just kind of The different buckets, the consumer, the commercial and the residential, just kind of how you're thinking about growth for 'twenty three and just kind of the pipelines where they are today?

Speaker 2

This is Thomas and I'll pass it over to knowing to Lynn to give some color on the individual lines of business. Overall, as we exited the Q4, our pipelines were strong, A little bit stronger in the commercial side. The consumer side is seeing the cyclical portion of the Q4 and also The adjustment that everyone's seen across the marketplace in mortgage, but our pipelines overall look like they're in well positioned and continue the Mid to upper single digit low growth throughout 'twenty three, but I'll pass over to Noah to give some additional color.

Speaker 8

Yes. Good morning, everyone. This is Noah Nihira. Yes. Our consumer pipeline has remained consistent.

Speaker 8

We are cyclical as well. Indirect, we expect to remain Flat for the most part. We are going to see some single digit growth in direct consumer, primarily in the HELOC portion of Our portfolio. Our mortgage, we will again remain in low to single digit growth expected in the Q1 as well, And we will mimic really the industry standards that's being published in the forecast as well.

Speaker 5

This is Lynn again. Concerning commercial, as we indicated in the deck, we are Positioned with a pipeline of $134,000,000 as we go into Q1 2023. This is Following on for the Q4 quarter, which was $126,000,000 gross pipeline, so pretty consistent, a little bit Better actually than what we had maybe anticipated for Q1 with all of the interest rate increases. Overall, demand has been pretty good. I will say that with the rate increases, as far as new projects, Those are getting a little tighter for some of the developers.

Speaker 5

So but at this point, the metrics are working and we're seeing some continued demand there. So 10 point a little over 10% annualized growth in the Q4. For 2023, we're Looking at high single or mid single digits, so we're looking at that perhaps moderating a bit with the rate environment And the economy, the overall, it's been good growth and good demand, and we're continuing to entertain new packages.

Speaker 4

Perfect. Thank you for the added color. And maybe just the last one or 2 coming. Just on the mortgage side, I don't know if it's Nelly or Hu, but just kind of the dollar amount that we saw on the gain on sale this quarter. I know the expectations relative to Yes.

Speaker 4

The peers is likely to outperform, but just kind of in dollars, how we should be thinking about the mortgage operation this year? I mean, is this kind of base to build off of in 4th quarter, I think it's just over a little over $1,000,000 or just any thoughts on your outlook on mortgage?

Speaker 8

Yes. Thank you for the question. And the Q1 outlook will be very similar to what we saw in the Q4. As far as the pipeline, we obviously saw a decrease in late in the year with the rising rate environment As the forecast for the pricing has stabilized somewhat, we still expect a few rate hikes. But So we expect they will perform very similar to the Q4 as far as dollar wise.

Speaker 4

Okay. Perfect. And last one was just maybe for Mark on the margin, I think you said a little bit lower second quarter. And I guess is the yes, I guess is that the inflection point, Mark? Is the 3rd quarter kind of in your mind today how we should as assets begin to reprice trending higher, is that what I'm hearing or maybe I missed what you said there?

Speaker 3

No, I think that's the trend as we have a lag in the asset repricing and we see With the anticipation that rate increases will stop here in the Q1 and let the assets start to catch up, That would be the trajectory, Brian. Yes.

Speaker 4

Okay. Perfect. Thanks for taking the questions and congratulations

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Blight for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Rocco. In closing, we'd like to invite you to join us for our 2023 Virtual Investor Analyst Day on Tuesday, February 21, starting at noon Eastern Time. Registration information will be sent out next week and we will post on the Investor Relations section of our website. Thank you for participating in today's earnings call, and we look forward to speaking to you again at our Investor Day conference. Now I'll turn the call back over to Rokul to close out the conference.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, sir. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful

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Earnings Conference Call
Horizon Bancorp Q4 2022
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