Marsh & McLennan Companies Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 19, 2023

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to Marsh McLennan's Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. 3rd Quarter 2023 Financial Results and Supplemental Information were issued earlier this morning. They are available on the company's website at marshmclennan.com. Please note that remarks made today may include forward looking statements.

Operator

Forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements. For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10 ks, all of which are available on the Marsh McLennan website. During the call today, we may also discuss certain non GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the schedule in today's earnings release. Please press star 11 on your touch tone phone.

Operator

I'll now turn this over to John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan.

Speaker 1

Good morning and thank you for joining us to discuss our Q3 results reported earlier today. I'm John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan. Joining me on the call is Mark McGivney, our CFO and the CEOs of our businesses Martin South of Marsh Dean Klasura of Guy Carpenter Martin Forlan of Mercer and Nick Studer of Oliver Wyman. Also with us this morning is Sarah DeWitt, Head of Investor Relations. Before I get into our results, I'd like to take a moment to comment on the violent attacks on Israel and the tragic events unfolding in Israel and Gaza.

Speaker 1

We, along with our colleagues, condemn all acts of terror and violence and reject hatred. Our primary focus is on ensuring the safety and well-being of our colleagues in Tel Aviv and supporting colleagues around the world who have family and friends in Israel and Gaza. We're also supporting our clients as they grapple with the challenges of this conflict. Turning to our Q3 results, I'm very pleased with our performance. We extended our best run of quarterly underlying revenue growth in over 2 decades and reported significant growth in adjusted EPS.

Speaker 1

Top line momentum continued with 10% underlying revenue growth on top of 8% growth in the Q3 of last year. Adjusted operating income grew 24% versus a year ago. Our adjusted operating margin expanded 170 basis points compared to the Q3 of 2022. Adjusted EPS grew 33% and we completed $300,000,000 of share repurchases during the quarter. These results reflect our consistent focus on delivering in the near term, while investing for sustained growth over the long term.

Speaker 1

We are seeing the benefit of investments we've made in our talent and capabilities and we continue to see opportunities to add high quality acquisitions. During the Q3, we announced 2 significant transactions. In early August, Marsh McLennan Agency acquired Graham Company, a top 100 U. S. Insurance and benefits broker and risk management consultancy with 2 15 employees and over $70,000,000 in revenue.

Speaker 1

Bram will provide significant business insurance and employee benefits expertise for MMA's clients in the Mid Atlantic. This acquisition is another example of us attracting the best agencies in the U. S. MMA is now a $3,000,000,000 revenue business. In the same month, Marsh announced an agreement to acquire Honan Insurance Group.

Speaker 1

This deal expands our Australian middle market business and our position across the Pacific region and Asia. Honan specializes in corporate risk and employee benefits and serves over 30,000 clients. Beyond acquisitions, we continue to make targeted investments in talent, sales operations and go to market strategies. We are also investing in new technologies and solutions to bring the best of Marsh McLennan to our clients. For example, Guy Carpenter recently launched the next generation of our catastrophe analytics platform, GC Advantage Point.

Speaker 1

The new platform is a critical tool to help clients drive profitable risk selection and manage catastrophe exposure in a quickly evolving risk landscape. Earlier this year, Marsh announced the launch of Cyber Pathway, an integrated cybersecurity and insurance solution for U. S. Small and midsized businesses that helps enhance the resilience in a volatile threat environment. The program provides access to key security tools and capabilities as well as insurance coverage that can grow as our clients evolve.

Speaker 1

And we are investing in technologies that enhance our internal productivity, insights for clients and improved colleague experience. One example is LEN AI, Marsh McLennan's internal AI assistant. Len AI offers the power of chat GPT in a safe and data secure environment and is available to all colleagues. Developed by our innovation center, it's also helping Oliver Wyman support clients in developing their own AI capabilities. Our approach to balancing investment and growth drives consistent exceptional performance for shareholders and positions us well to deliver new solutions and insights for our clients.

Speaker 1

Turning to our strategic initiatives. The combined value proposition of our businesses continues to gain traction with clients, especially in certain industries and lines of business. For example, we are focused on enterprise risks for health care clients. Our Marsh and Mercer teams are coming together to respond to emerging challenges such as health and safety, labor actions and workforce and liability risks from AI. In the private equity and M and A space, Bursar, Marsh and Oliver Wyman are combining capabilities to help clients close deals and create post transaction value.

Speaker 1

This can include due diligence, advisory on large transformations, health and benefits carve out transactions and providing stop loss solutions. And in the insurance sector, Guy Carpenter is partnering with Mercer to provide portfolio management solutions to insurance clients. One example is our advanced balance sheet solution, which is a collaborative approach that aligns risk and return across an insurer's balance sheet. This offering has already resulted in several regional insurers choosing to partner with Mercer for OCIO. We are also finding new ways to operate, reduce complexity and organize for impact.

Speaker 1

As we continue to execute on our restructuring actions, we've identified additional opportunities to rationalize technology, reduce our real estate footprint and realign our workforce. We now expect to achieve total savings of roughly $400,000,000 by 2024 with total cost to achieve these savings of 425 to $475,000,000 Overall, the momentum we are seeing as our businesses increasingly serve clients together, combined with our restructuring efforts, offers opportunities to deliver enhanced value for clients, drive higher growth and be more efficient and connected. Now let me turn to the macro environment. The outlook remains uncertain. Capital market volatility has returned with the continued rise in interest rates.

Speaker 1

The trajectory of inflation and further central bank tightening remain an open question and the geopolitical situation remains volatile. Despite the environment, we continue to perform well and we have a track record of resilience. We believe we are well positioned to perform across economic cycles and manage our business to grow revenues faster than expenses in good as well as challenging periods. Now let me turn to insurance and reinsurance market conditions. Primary insurance rates continued to increase with the Marsh Global Insurance Market Index up 3% overall, in line with the 2nd quarter.

Speaker 1

Property rates increased 7% compared to 10% in the 2nd quarter, casualty pricing was up in the low single digit range, workers' compensation increased slightly, while financial and professional liability insurance rates were down mid single digits. Cyber insurance pricing decreased modestly after several years of increases. In reinsurance, our clients have faced consistent challenges throughout 2023. This includes elevated cat losses, core and social inflation and continued political instability. As we look to January 1, the market appears to be more orderly than last year, but we expect underwriting discipline to continue.

Speaker 1

On the property side, we expect firm pricing, but a more stable market with adequate capacity and increased reinsurer appetite. In casualty, the market is more cautious with reinsurers assessing prior year loss development and inflation. We expect capacity to remain stable. Overall, clients will need thorough preparation and a proactive strategy to achieve desired outcomes. We are well positioned to help our clients navigate these dynamic market conditions.

Speaker 1

Now let me turn to our Q3 financial performance. We generated adjusted EPS of $1.57 which is up 33% from a year ago. On an underlying basis, revenue grew 10%. Underlying revenue grew 11% in RIS and 9% in consulting. Marsh was up 8%, Guy Carpenter 8%, Mercer 8% and Oliver Wyman grew 12%.

Speaker 1

Overall, the Q3 saw adjusted operating income growth of 24% and our adjusted operating margin expanded 170 basis points year over year. For the 9 months, consolidated revenue grew 10% on an underlying basis, adjusted operating income grew 17% and our adjusted operating margin expanded 130 basis points. Adjusted EPS was $6.31 up 17% from a year ago. With our outstanding results in the Q3 year to date, we remain on track for a terrific year. Based on our outlook today and assuming current market conditions persist, we now expect full year underlying revenue growth to be 9% to 10%.

Speaker 1

We also continue to expect margin expansion for the full year and strong growth in adjusted EPS. Finally, I want to provide an update on our recently announced leadership changes. Martin Furlan, the CEO of Mercer, will retire on March 31 next year. Pat Tomlinson has been appointed President of Mercer, where he will work closely with Martin through a transition period and have responsibility for Mercer's global health, wealth and career practices. Pat will received Martin as President and CEO of Mercer upon her retirement.

Speaker 1

I'm excited to work with Pat in his new role. He brings an outstanding track record as a leader and strong knowledge of our business. He currently serves as Marsh McLennan U. S. And Canada CEO and Mercer President of U.

Speaker 1

S. And Canada. Pat has 26 years of industry experience, including the last 9 years in leadership roles at Mercer. I also want to thank Martijn for her leadership. In her 5 years as CEO of Mercer, she delivered strong growth, built and cultivated our talent and delivered impact for our clients.

Speaker 1

This announcement is another example of our depth of exceptional talent and focus on succession planning. Overall, I'm proud of our Q3 performance, which demonstrates continued execution of our strategy and continued momentum across our business. I'm grateful to our colleagues for their focus and determination and the value they deliver to our clients, to shareholders and communities. With that, let me turn it over to Mark for a more detailed review of our results.

Speaker 2

Thank you, John, and good morning. Our 3rd quarter results were outstanding, continued momentum in underlying growth, strong double digit adjusted EPS growth and significant margin expansion. Our consolidated revenue increased 13% to $5,400,000,000 with underlying growth of 10%. Operating income was $996,000,000 and adjusted operating income was 1,100,000,000 up 24% from a year ago. Our adjusted operating margin increased 170 basis points to 21.3%.

Speaker 2

GAAP EPS was $1.47 and adjusted EPS was $1.57 up 33% over last year. Note that adjusted EPS in the 3rd quarter included a $0.10 discrete tax benefit from the release of valuation allowance on foreign deferred tax assets. Even without this benefit, our adjusted EPS grew 25% in the quarter.

Speaker 1

For the

Speaker 2

1st 9 months of 2023, underlying revenue growth was 10%, adjusted operating income grew 17% to 4,400,000,000 our adjusted operating margin increased 130 basis points and adjusted EPS increased 17% to $6.31 Looking at Risk and Insurance Services, 3rd quarter revenue was $3,200,000,000 up 12% from a year ago or 11% on an underlying basis. This result marks the 10th consecutive quarter of 8% or higher underlying growth in RIS continues the best stretch of growth in nearly 2 decades. Operating income increased 21% to 640,000,000 adjusted operating income increased 19 percent to $671,000,000 and our adjusted operating margin expanded 100 basis points to 23.4 For the 1st 9 months of the year, revenue in RIS was $10,800,000,000 with underlying growth of 12%, adjusted operating income increased 18 percent to $3,300,000,000 margin increased 150 basis points to 32.6%. At Marsh, revenue in the quarter was $2,700,000,000 up 9% from a year ago or 8% on an underlying basis. This comes on top of 8% growth in the Q3 of last year.

Speaker 2

Growth in the Q3 reflected solid new business and strong retention. In U. S. And Canada, underlying growth was 6% for the quarter led by strong growth in MMA. In international underlying growth was 10% and comes on top of 11% in the Q3 of last year.

Speaker 2

Latin America was up 14%, Asia Pacific was up 10% and EMEA grew 9%. The 1st 9 months of the year Marsh's revenue was $8,500,000,000 with underlying growth of 9%. U. S. And Canada grew 7% and international was up 10%.

Speaker 2

Guy Carpenter's revenue was $359,000,000 in the quarter, up 9% or 8% on an underlying basis, driven by strong growth across our global specialties and regions. For the 1st 9 months of the year, Guy Carpenter generated $2,000,000,000 of revenue, 10% underlying growth. In the Consulting segment, 3rd quarter revenue was $2,200,000,000 13% from a year ago or 9% on an underlying basis. Consulting operating income was 424,000,000 adjusted operating income increased 24 percent to $447,000,000 and the adjusted operating margin expanded 170 basis points to 20.8%. For the 1st 9 months of 2023, consulting revenue was 6,400,000,000 with underlying growth of 7%.

Speaker 2

Adjusted operating income increased 11% to 1,300,000,000 and the adjusted operating margin expanded 50 basis points to 20.1%. Mercer's revenue was $1,400,000,000 in the quarter, 8% on an underlying basis. This was Mercer's best quarter of underlying growth in 15 years. Wealth grew 7% driven by continued demand in defined benefits consulting and higher growth in investment management. Our assets under management were $379,000,000,000 at the end of the 3rd quarter, up 19% compared to the Q3 of last year and down 4% sequentially.

Speaker 2

Year over year growth was driven by our transaction with Westpac, a rebound in capital markets and positive net flows. Health underlying growth was 8% and reflected strength in all segments and regions. Career revenue increased 7% on top of 15% growth in the Q3 of last year. We continue to see growth in rewards and talent strategy. For the 1st 9 months of the year, revenue at Mercer was $4,100,000,000 with 7% underlying growth.

Speaker 2

Oliver Wyman's revenue in the quarter was $781,000,000 an increase of 12 increase of 8% on an underlying basis. Foreign exchange was a $0.01 headwind to EPS in the 3rd quarter. Assuming exchange rates remain at current levels, we expect FX will have an immaterial effect on 4th quarter earnings. We reported $52,000,000 of total restructuring costs in the quarter, approximately $37,000,000 of which relates to the program we announced in the Q4 last year. These charges include costs related to severance, lease exits and streamlining our technology environment.

Speaker 2

We've continued to pursue efficiencies under this program and our outlook for savings has increased. As John noted, we now expect total charges of $425,000,000 to $475,000,000 and expect total savings of roughly $400,000,000 of which approximately $225,000,000 will be realized in 2023. To date we have incurred approximately $325,000,000 of charges under this program. We currently expect to incur the majority of the remaining charges by the end of 2023 and to realize the bulk of the remaining savings in 2024. Our other net benefit credit was $62,000,000 in the quarter.

Speaker 2

For the full year 2023, we expect our other net benefit credit will be about $240,000,000 Investment income was $1,000,000 in the 3rd quarter on a GAAP basis and $2,000,000 on an adjusted basis. Interest expense in the 3rd quarter was $145,000,000 up from $118,000,000 in the Q3 of 2022, reflecting higher levels of debt and higher interest rates. Based on our current forecast, we expect approximately $157,000,000 of interest expense in the 4th quarter. Our effective adjusted tax rate in the 3rd quarter was 20.5% compared with 24.6% in the Q3 of last year. Our tax rate in both periods benefited from favorable discrete items.

Speaker 2

The largest discrete item this quarter was a $48,000,000 release of the valuation allowance on foreign deferred tax assets. Excluding discrete items, our effective adjusted tax rate was approximately 25.5%. When we give forward guidance around our tax rate, we do not project discrete items which can be positive or negative. Based on the current environment, it is reasonable to assume a tax rate of around 25.5 percent for 2023. Turning to capital management and our balance sheet.

Speaker 2

We ended the quarter with total debt of $13,600,000,000 This includes the $1,600,000,000 of senior notes we issued in September. Our next scheduled debt maturities are in March 2024 when $1,000,000,000 of senior notes mature and in May when another $600,000,000 of senior notes come due. We also recently took the opportunity to increase borrowing capacity under our credit facility, increasing the size of the facility to $3,500,000,000 from $2,800,000,000 and extending the term of the facility by 2.5 years to 2028. This was a prudent step to increase our access to short term funding given the significant growth in our business since we last renewed the facility in April 2021. We are also pleased that Moody's upgraded our senior unsecured debt rating to A3 in September.

Speaker 2

We continue to expect to deploy approximately $4,000,000,000 of capital in 2023 across dividends, acquisitions and share our cash position at the end of the 3rd quarter was $2,900,000,000 Uses of cash in the quarter totaled 1,000,000,000 included $353,000,000 for dividends, dollars 368,000,000 for acquisitions and $300,000,000 for share repurchases. For the 1st 9 months uses of cash totaled $2,900,000,000 and included $944,000,000 for dividends, dollars 1,100,000,000 for acquisitions and $900,000,000 for share repurchases. Overall, we remain on track for a terrific 2023. Based on our outlook today and assuming current conditions persist, we expect to generate 9% to 10% full year underlying revenue growth, strong growth in adjusted EPS and to report margin expansion for the 16th consecutive year. And with that, I'm happy to turn it back to John.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Mark. Operator, we are ready to begin Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. We ask that participants limit themselves to one question and one follow-up question. And our first question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

Speaker 3

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question is on the U. S, Canada within Marsh. Organic of 6%, but that is a slowdown from where you guys were in the 1st part of the year.

Speaker 3

Can you just give a little bit more color on what's causing the slowdown? And then I think in the introductory comments, you guys mentioned that MMA saw strong growth. So could you give us a sense of the growth within MMA and the growth outside of MMA within that segment?

Speaker 1

Sure, Elyse. Good morning and thanks for the question. Again, overall, I was quite pleased with the growth, the revenue growth in the quarter. We had good growth at Marsh, Best growth at Mercer in 15 years and again strong performance at Guy Carpenter and Oliver Wyman. Marsh US inclusive of MMA and I would also note our MGA operation had a good quarter as well.

Speaker 1

Growth was strong. Marsh U. S. Was up 6% versus 5% a year ago. Again, we caution you to look at growth at any one quarter, we think we're well positioned and our team is executing well.

Speaker 1

Martin, do you have any other color on what impacted growth at Marsh this quarter?

Speaker 4

Yes. Thank you, John. As you said, very strong growth for Marsh across the board in international and North America. As you said, we don't comment on specifically on MMA, but they've had a good quarter. The growth in the NGA business was strong.

Speaker 4

As partially some impact from the capital markets and some moderating growth in financial construction sidelines reflecting some pricing pressures. But as you say, we don't look at this on a quarter over quarter basis. We look at over a longer period of time and we feel very positive about the U. S. Business and the Canadian business.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Martin. Elyse, do

Speaker 5

you have a follow-up?

Speaker 3

Yes. And then my second question, so on the revised savings program, is there a way to give us a sense, you mentioned John, it came from rationalizing tech, real estate and realigning the workforce, how much each of those buckets are contributing to the extra savings? And then is it still fair to assume that most of the savings that you're expecting this year should be falling to the bottom line?

Speaker 1

So, really Backing up a little bit, Elyse, as our business has operated more closely together, we've just identified additional opportunities. They're largely in the same areas, right? It's around realigning our workforce and mostly in functions, I would say, as opposed to market facing workforce, talent, real estate and technology. We're not broken it out by group, but the costs are severance, lease terminations and streamlining technology. So again, we're excited about some of the opportunities that we've uncovered and I'm proud of the team we're executing against them.

Speaker 1

Thanks Elyse. Operator, next question please.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning. So first question on the reinsurance market. I think you mentioned the word firm in terms of pricing. And are you expecting prices to be up further from these current levels or firm just means that they'll be somewhat stable? And then how do you think that will affect your growth at Guy Carpenter.

Speaker 6

You've grown double digits this year, not sure how much of that is because

Speaker 4

of the tailwind from pricing.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Jimmy. I did use the word firm. There's no question. Our team at Guy Carpenter has done a terrific job this year, helping our clients navigate what's a challenging market.

Speaker 1

As I said, I expect that the market on January 1 will certainly be more Quarterly than last year, but there are concerns both in the insurance and reinsurance market about rising loss costs. And we don't want to project and can't really project with accuracy and there's still a quarter to run. We expect underwriting discipline to remain. But With that, maybe, Dean, you could offer some thoughts on Guy Carpenter and what we think of the market.

Speaker 7

Thanks, John. And Jimmy, maybe I'll give you a little color between property cat and casualty as John mentioned. As John noted, we expect challenging market conditions to persist for property cat at the upcoming January 1 renewal. As John noted, driven by inflation, as you're reading about, I mean, cat losses continue to be very elevated, many attritional losses, many $1,000,000,000 plus events this year, political instability continues. We do expect pricing to remain firm in property cat.

Speaker 7

It will vary region by region. It won't be what we saw last year as an example in the U. S. And Europe, but we do think that firmness will be there. We do expect additional capacity and an increased appetite for reinsurers to write more business, particularly at higher attaching property cat layers.

Speaker 7

But I think the key is we expect reinsurers to continue to exhibit that discipline on attachment points, pricing and terms and I don't see anything going backwards. As John noted, we think property cat capacity in the market will remain And as John noted, we think it'll be a more manageable renewal for our clients without that significant supply demand and balance in dislocation that we saw last year and we do expect increased demand for our clients to buy more reinsurance and particularly key regions like Europe. On the casualty side for U. S. Casualty, as John noted, the market is trending very cautiously.

Speaker 7

And all of our meetings with reinsurers this fall, everybody expressed concern with prior year loss development in U. S. Casualty in certain lines, again, driven by economic and social inflation. And we do expect some downward pressure from reinsurers on ceding commissions for our clients with quota share contracts and certain casualty lines. But in casualty, we do expect capacity to remain adequate.

Speaker 1

The cost of risk, Jimmy, is rising, and it's up to us to find the best solutions in the market for both our insurance and reinsurance clients. And so I think we're well positioned to do that.

Speaker 5

Do you have a follow-up?

Speaker 6

Yes. Just on Oliver Wyman, I think typically you think of Oliver Wyman as being sensitive to economic uncertainty. And this year, the business has shown a lot of momentum. So maybe I know you won the UBS, I don't know UBS Credit Suisse integration contract, but I'm not sure how material that is. But what's really driving Oliver Wyman and what's your sort of pipeline look like and how do you think about it performing if the economy does in fact slow down?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Jimmy. Oliver Wyman has been more sensitive to GDP over time, but it's also been a faster growing part of our business over time as well. And after a relatively slow start to the year, Oliver Wyman's had a terrific run and is now having strong growth year to date and a very, very strong quarter. So Nick, maybe you can share with Jimmy some color on how things look at Oliver Wyman.

Speaker 8

Thank you, John, and thank you, Jimmy. Let me enlarge on that a little bit. It's definitely not An easy environment for discretionary spending in our clients. So I still see a fairly wide range of possible economic paths. But John called out our wider resilience of Marsh McLennan, and I'm proud that Oliver Wyman's demonstrated that resilience and clawing our way back from are flat to Q1.

Speaker 8

And as Martin said as well, we do try to look at the business on a year over year basis more than a quarter over quarter basis, but it does matter. We're quite a diverse business now and we've been becoming more diverse. So if you think about the sectors that are driving our growth in the regions, Our India, Middle East and Africa region has been the biggest contributor to our regional growth with Europe also contributing strongly. On the sectoral side, public sector, which is quite present in the Middle East, our communications media and technology practice, followed by banking, followed by transportation and services. So again, quite a wide array of industry sectors there.

Speaker 8

And maybe just an case study on the industry side would be our private equity, private capital practice. Clearly, it's not been a great deal environment, But that practice has been doing quite well driven by portfolio company work.

Speaker 1

And over

Speaker 8

the last Few years, I've said a few times and have been asked questions about our offerings through the cycle, which we've been seeking to broaden. Our economic research practices grew strongly, our digital team, our restructuring practice, which is nascent, grew very strongly our work on performance transformation with clients, which is more of a tough economic environment offering, as well as our people and organizational performance work where we do a lot of collaboration with Mercer. So Ultimately, I'm optimistic in our long term growth prospects, but we continue to plan for mid- to high single digit growth over the longer term. And our pipeline is looking in line with that at this moment.

Speaker 1

Thanks Nick and thank you Jimmy. Operator, next question.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning. Thanks. I guess just a follow-up to the last question about kind of of global growth. So, Marsh's growth clearly record high levels. I feel like historically there's been more of a correlation between growth and nominal GDP.

Speaker 9

If you do agree with that, it just feels like there's been a decoupling of that relationship recently in a good way for you obviously. And just curious if there's anything structurally, permanently that's changed or is it are there kind of temporary phenomenons with hires or anything you want to call out if you agree with the premise of my question?

Speaker 1

Sure, Mike. What I would say is, it is a volatile macro environment, certainly, both the economy and geopolitically, as I mentioned for but I do believe nominal GDP is a better indicator of demand over time. And with inflation, tight labor markets and pricing positive in the P and C market, those macro factors are certainly supportive of growth. But What I would also say is we've been working very hard to shift our mix of business to better growth markets over time. A handful of examples, MMA, of course, the middle market at both Marsh and Mercer, our OCIO business we've been investing in.

Speaker 1

We have invested organically and inorganically throughout Asia. And then more broadly, we've invested in talent, sales operations and our client engagement model. So we believe we're a better growth business and better positioned. And while again, that macro environment is quite volatile, we're confident in our ability to perform over economic cycles.

Speaker 9

Okay. That's helpful. If I could Yes, I'll ask a follow-up and hopefully it's not out of the left field, but there's been a chatter in the media and at a recent wholesale conference about potentially some of the larger brokers getting back into the wholesale business. I'm not sure if you You want to comment on that or can, but maybe you can at least offer some perspective on why Marsh doesn't have as big of a wholesale presences relative to just its market share of non wholesale insurance?

Speaker 1

Yes, sure, Mark Mike, excuse me, I'm happy to comment. I mean, first of all, I would say that the E and S market volumes historically have moved with pricing cycles. I think given the volatile risk environment, I suspect that E and S market volumes will be more durable than they've been historically. Underwriters are looking for flexibility. And 3rd party wholesalers can give us access to certain markets.

Speaker 1

At the same time, we access some E and S markets directly today. And so in terms of 3rd party wholesale, I think we'd have to be thoughtful about whether or not we would be a good owner. We do have a business in Victor that does a lot of business with independent, really small commercial Main Street, agents. That's a marketplace we can serve and do serve today with solutions. But our focus again broadly speaking in Marsh's business is about bringing the entirety of the market, all solutions that are out there, whether they're standard market or admitted market solutions or non admitted solutions.

Speaker 1

We want to have the flexibility to do that and that's what we do to make sure that we can protect and bring the best solutions to our client. Hopefully, that was helpful. Operator, next question?

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of David Motamedian with Evercore ISI.

Speaker 10

Thanks. Good morning. John, in the press release, you mentioned continuing to make investments for the future in this quarter. I'm just wondering if there was an acceleration in some of those investments this quarter, particularly in RIS? And if so, if you could walk through the nature of them and how we can think about the future revenue contribution?

Speaker 1

No, I don't thanks, David. I don't see it as an acceleration in the quarter. Certainly, on a GAAP basis in the quarter, expense growth was impacted by M and A, restructuring, but also FX. And even on an adjusted basis, obviously, FX played a role there. But as I said earlier, we're trying to balance Delivering today and investing for the future, we're not trying to optimize margins in a particular quarter or for that matter in a year.

Speaker 1

We've got a track record, a disciplined track record of growing revenue faster than expense. But we're not going to do it in every quarter, in every business in every quarter. And so, we see right opportunities to make investments that we think are going to create opportunities for us to deliver value for our clients, we're going to make them.

Speaker 10

Got it. Thanks. And then just on the Marsh Global Pricing Index, I guess I'm wondering just if we're seeing an acceleration in some of the casualty lines Excluding workers' comp and excluding financial lines, if you're seeing an acceleration there, it sounded like on the reinsurance side. There's a bit more discipline that's entering the market given some social inflation concerns. I'm wondering If you're seeing any signs of that in the primary market?

Speaker 1

It's not a market. I would suggest it's really a collection of markets and what we saw In the Q3 was on average pretty similar to what we experienced in the second quarter. I would note, as it relates to our income statement, we have different levels of commission exposure to different products, right? So it doesn't always add up to the same amount. But it's a mixed market and maybe I'll ask Martin to share some thoughts Just remind everyone, it's our role is to get the best solution for our retail clients in the marketplace.

Speaker 1

And we have a role as a market maker too. And We've done a few things as a market maker to try to bring more efficient financing solutions to our clients. Martin?

Speaker 4

Yes, I agree with that, John. That's our job. Just to level set, we're in the 24th consecutive quarter of rate increases. We'll release our survey in a couple of weeks' time. And I think we're at an inflection point when it comes to pricing, the pricing cycles we're seeing across the different geographies and product lines are beginning to show mix of strengths and weaknesses depending on the combination.

Speaker 4

The 3rd casualty grew at 3%. It grew in 3 The quarter before and the quarter before and the quarter before. So we're not seeing an acceleration, but I would say we're hearing a lot more talk from carriers about pressures on pricing and social placing and some of the nuclear verdicts that are out there. And we're keeping our clients closely posted on those. Property was at 7%.

Speaker 4

These rates were roughly in line with the prior quarter. We saw some softness in Finpro lines. Finpro lines came down by 6% in Q3, maybe down 8% in the quarter before. So I don't know if that's a trend yet, but it's certainly less. And as you mentioned in the introduction, John, our cyber index came down by 2% and it was up by 1% in the quarter, so 3 percentage point delta between the courses.

Speaker 4

So it's a relatively calm market that we'll see on casualty.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Martin. What I would also say, David, and I mentioned this to Jimmy, but clearly the cost of risk is rising, right? So whether it's a frequency of cat events, including extreme weather, casualty loss costs, whether it's core inflation, social inflation, some of the underwriting community referring to as legal system abuse, the growth in litigation funding, concerns for our clients for sure and the underwriting community as well. Thanks, David.

Speaker 1

Operator, next question.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 11

Hey, thanks for taking my question. So I think last quarter there were some comments that I interpreted as expectations for the level of margin expansion to puts and takes with respect to the margin relative to 2Q and whether it's still fair to assume that the second half of the year will have stronger margin expansion than 2Q?

Speaker 1

Yes. Sure, Rob. Again, margin is an outcome. It's not our primary objective. Our focus is on growing earnings and free cash flow over time.

Speaker 1

We're not trying to optimize margin expansion in any period, certainly in any business in any period. We do expect solid margin expansion in 2023, which will be our 16th consecutive year of margin expansion. There were FX headwinds in RIS' margins in the Q3. But again, I'm pleased with the progress that we've made there. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, again, we expect Good solid margin expansion in 2023.

Speaker 11

Got it. Thank you. And maybe just follow-up. I think some peers have highlighted expectations for medical costs to increase. So I was hoping if you could discuss the trends you're seeing in the health and benefits space and expectations as we look into 2024?

Speaker 1

Sure, Rob. I'll ask Martin to comment in a second. But we've had good growth in our health and benefits business at Mercer in our business internationally, which is Mercer Marsh Benefits and at MMA, it is a pressure point clearly for our clients in this economy. And so Clients more and more looking to us for solutions there. Martin, maybe share some insights.

Speaker 12

Yes. Thank you, Robert, for the question. Thank you, John. Indeed medical inflation is increasing and as John just said, it's a challenge for our clients. At the same time, it's not a big part of our revenue sources because most of our clients are on fee based and those kind of things.

Speaker 12

And when and we're also working a lot with clients to try to control those costs, control those increases because as you may know in the health benefit space, very, very often the employers would share the costs with the employee base. So in this time of high inflation, they're pretty concerned about passing on those costs. So we're looking at design of the plan, access in a different way, leveraging technology, etcetera. So there's many different ways that our client that we can help our clients address those increase in cost. And it's impacting revenue a little bit, but honestly, it's a small part for us given all of the counterpoints.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Martin. Operator, next question.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Meyer Kienfeld with KBW.

Speaker 13

Great. Good morning. So two questions if I can. First, John, you talked about macroeconomic uncertainty. I'm wondering how that impacts near term visibility simply for Mercer in terms of the review of the line.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Meyer. I would say, as I said, obviously, the macro economy remains uncertain, and there is a fair amount of questions about it. What I would say is mature markets have remained relatively resilient, but inflation of cost persists. Central banks So their primary mission is to reduce inflation, but we do see meaningful risk of recession and we're prepared for that for sure.

Speaker 1

And some markets are in recession now, but I'll ask Nick and Martin. Again, I think Oliver Wyman historically has been a bit more sensitive to GDP and Mercer's career business has as well. But Nick, maybe you could share some thoughts on the economy and what you think that might mean to our business?

Speaker 8

Yes. Thank you, John. Thank you, Meyer. As I said earlier on, I think it is a wide range of economic paths that I see. Different of our sectors do react differently.

Speaker 8

And some of our industries have been having a pretty tough time since sort of through and since the pandemic. Some have seen little spurts of growth. We've been growing in some sectors, for example, aerospace and defense, So we made a significant acquisition last year, which we see as being more robust through the cycle. I do think that a tough economic outlook tends to result in slower growth for alignment. But As I said earlier, we've been trying to develop a wider set of through the cycle offerings.

Speaker 8

And sometimes when the questions all change, people need help answering them. So it's definitely not a correlation anymore. I think it probably that correlation has declined over time and is pretty low now.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Nick. Martijn, maybe you can share some thoughts on Mercer Career?

Speaker 12

Yes. Yes, absolutely. And over the last few years, we have focused also on diversifying our portfolio is and we've improved our business mix a little bit away from the more discretionary nature of the business, in particular in career with more recurring type of work. And I would add to that that with the current environment, there's also lots of demand as Nick just said, you look at volatile capital markets, for example, drives demand for advice in our defined benefits and our Confusion Businesses, well funded defined benefit plan on the back of high interest rates and also creating demand for pension risk transfer, we talked about tight labor markets, the different the change in the ways of working, the upcoming of digital health and technology in the workplace, it's all driving demand and countering the more traditional, I would say, of previous years impact of direct correlation to GDP as we discussed earlier.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Martin. So we, of course, Meyer, are not immune to economic growth, but we're a resilient business. And again, we have a track record of forming across economic cycles and at the moment demand remains strong. Do you

Speaker 5

have a follow-up?

Speaker 13

Okay. I do, yes. Just a quick one and thanks so much. That was very helpful. With regard to Oliver Wyman, in the past, I guess, you've communicated that Oliver Wyman, when you have strong growth, there could be some pressure on consulting margins just because of the nature of that business.

Speaker 13

And we didn't see that in this quarter. I'm wondering, is that content of lower margins in Oliver Wyman less true now?

Speaker 1

No, it's not less true. But again, keep in mind, Mercer had its best quarter of growth. It's a bigger business than Oliver Wyman and it has best quarter of growth in 15 years. So that's the reason you didn't see anything there. Thank you, Meyer.

Speaker 1

Operator, next question?

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Scott Heleniak with with RBC Capital Markets.

Speaker 14

Yes, good morning. Just at Marsh, just wondering if you could comment what's driving the double digit growth there at EMEA and Latin America. I know that's been strong for a few quarters, but can you give more detail on that? Is there any new areas we're seeing growth and is there much of a benefit from rate increases there?

Speaker 1

Yes, sure. Happy to talk about that, Scott. Again, very pleased with our growth at Marsh. It was particularly strong in the international segment in the quarter. And in spite of mixed economic outcomes in Europe, our business is performing exceptionally well there, and we've had good growth over a long period of time in Latin America.

Speaker 1

Martin, maybe you could share Some color on growth in both of those markets?

Speaker 4

I'd be thrilled to. Yes. As you say, great growth in international 10%, Latin America 14%, APAC 10%, EMEA at 9%. So really, really pleasing growth. I'd say there are a few areas that are out ending at the moment the Energy and Power business, the transition is fueling growth.

Speaker 4

Credit Specialties had a terrific quarter in Aviation, as well as MMB, which is a big part of our business in Europe, delivered strong double digit growth. And our advisory business, our Value proposition is to go to market through a lens to help our clients think through the cost of risk. And so that's been a big growth area for us as we think that and we think that will continue to broaden our opportunities. That's been great growth. It's been good growth between renewal and new business across the business and we've had less lost business.

Speaker 4

The clients are staying with us longer as they see the value in an organization like ours that has such broad capabilities. So we feel very good about that across the board. And of course, you've got the fundamentals in Latin America with protection gap and somewhat emerging markets in Eastern Europe as well that have had a very strong growth as well. So we feel well positioned and very positive about the trajectory there.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Martin. Scott, do

Speaker 5

you have a follow-up?

Speaker 14

Yes, just one other quick follow-up here. Just on M and A, you did those couple of bigger size deals in the quarter. Just wondering if you could just comment on your M and A pipeline versus where it was maybe 6 to 9 months ago, you're feeling a bit better about those opportunities as you go into 2024 and maybe some areas that you're looking at in particular with the focus areas?

Speaker 1

Sure. We remain Quite active in the market and the pipeline remains, solid, for sure. Again, I just Want to emphasize, how pleased we were to welcome Grant to the family, in the Q3. And we expect to close Honan relatively soon. There are 2 well led businesses, well positioned, solid growth fundamentals in both of them, expanding our presence in the middle market, which gets back to the mix point that I was making earlier.

Speaker 1

So overall, we closed 5 deals in the quarter. Those were the 2 bigger ones. We're very excited about it. We're certainly it's an active marketplace, while there's fewer transactions, there's a lot that is at play. And so we're wide eyed about and clear on what we're looking for.

Speaker 1

Valuations remain elevated for strong businesses that are in the market, but we know what we're looking for and we know how to manage the risk of M and A. And so we're going to be selective and disciplined, but we expect to continue to deploy capital inorganically. Thank you, Scott. Operator, next question.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Bob Wang with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 13

Hi, thank you. So maybe if we can just go back to Oliver Wyman a little bit. Previously, you mentioned that regarding the UBS Credit Suisse merger deal, that happened in the Q2. Just curious if that was a meaningful driver of organic growth for Oliver Wyman into Q2 and Q3? And also on top of that, do you expect any residual from that deal to come through in the Q4 and going forward for Oliver Wyman?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Bob. We're not going to comment on individual clients and the work that we do for for individual clients. So, as Nick talked about a couple of different times on this call, we have in increasingly diverse set of offerings that we think is more resilient and we're very, very pleased with the growth at Oliver Wyman through 3 quarters. Again quarter to quarter, we could see more volatility and expect to see more volatility at Oliver Wyman's top line than our other businesses.

Speaker 1

But we also expect Oliver Wyman to grow faster over a medium term and longer term. And That's certainly been the case, both that's been the case in this year, and we expect it to be the case over the longer term.

Speaker 5

Do you have a follow-up?

Speaker 13

Yes, sure. So one more thing very quickly regarding your cyber insurance practice. I know you mentioned that a cyber insurance Pricing growth is slowing down a little bit. There had been a few relatively large headline cyber incidents as well as some cyber claims, namely in the casino gaming area as well as the government and other areas, do you expect the current slowdown in cyber pricing maybe just sort of in a soft patch, but do you expect that pricing growth to rebound back? Or do you think the cyber insurance pricing will just kind of stay where it is right now?

Speaker 1

Bob, what I again, the most important point to make here is it's our job to find efficient risk financing solutions for our clients. So what I would say is, yes, there's been some major breaches that will drive some insured losses in the marketplace. There's also been an increase, again, the number of ransomware claims that have happened during the course of this year. But I would also note that the underwriting community has reacted to growing ransomware claims over the course of the last couple of years through higher attachment points. The market is also the underwriting market is also reacting to possible systemic events that could aggregate losses in their portfolios.

Speaker 1

We're of course helping them at Guy Carpenter and at the same time working with Marsh to and build better solutions for that. But the market's been restricting coverage for systemic type events. And so that's a factor in that marketplace as well. And so I don't think the market will move meaningfully based on a couple of losses. But we have some work to do collectively to help in a digital economy.

Speaker 1

When I say collectively, I mean, the Royal We, the entire marketplace and coming up with better solutions to help clients manage the risks, cyber related risks in a digital economy. So thank you. Underwriter? Underwriter. Operator?

Speaker 1

Sorry. Andrew, do you have

Operator

another question? Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.

Speaker 15

Thanks. I'll just ask one here and then we're out of the hour. So some competitors have like very specifically highlighted pressures, organic growth pressures in the U. S. From D and O, capital markets related transactions.

Speaker 15

You mentioned it briefly. Just curious, when we look at your U. S, Canada within March, is there any reason to believe that you guys wouldn't be wearing a headwind of similar magnitude?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Ryan, for the question. Yes, I think Martin pointed this out. There's I can't talk about relative exposure, but clearly, capital market volatility, rising

Speaker 4

cost of capital,

Speaker 1

M and A activity is down, IPO activity is down, SPACs are down, de SPACs down, all those kinds of things that drive risk and create opportunities for us to offer advice and solutions are under some pressure. And somewhat related to that, as Martin also noted earlier, D and O pricing is down as well. And so those are headwinds, but again, we have a well diversified business in the United States. We help our clients manage a wide range of risks. And broadly speaking, Again, the cost of risk continues to rise for the factors that I mentioned earlier on the call.

Speaker 1

So thank you, Ryan. I appreciate that. And I want to thank you all for joining us on the call. In closing, I want to thank our over 85,000 colleagues for their hard work and dedication. I also want to thank our clients for their continued support.

Speaker 1

Thank you all very much and we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's program. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Marsh & McLennan Companies Q3 2023
00:00 / 00:00