PACCAR Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 24, 2023

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Morning, and welcome to PACCAR's 3rd Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All lines will be in listen only mode until the question and answer session. Today's call is being recorded and if anyone has any objections, they should disconnect at this time. I would now like to hand The call over to Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations.

Operator

Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, Paccar's Director of Investor Relations and joining me this morning are Preston Feit, Chief Executive Officer Harry Skippers, President and Chief Financial Officer And Bryce Popolotsky, Vice President and Controller. As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line Certain information presented today will be forward looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page

Speaker 2

I would now like to introduce Preston Feit. Hey, good morning. Harry, Bryce, Ken and I will update you on our record 3rd quarter financial results and other business highlights. PACCAR's outstanding employees delivered this excellent performance By providing our customers with the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions in the industry. PACCAR's 3rd net income increased 60% year over year to a record $1,230,000,000 and revenues increased 23% to 8,700,000,000 Truck Parts and Other gross margins expanded to 19.5% in the 3rd quarter compared to 14.9% in the same period last year.

Speaker 2

PACCAR's global investments in innovative new DAF, Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks as well as investments in technology and manufacturing Key elements in delivering this strong performance. PACCAR Parts 3rd quarter revenues increased to $1,580,000,000 Parts pre tax profits were $412,000,000 or 10% higher than the same period last year. PACCAR Parts provides its customers with industry leading technology that enhances their uptime. PACCAR Financial earned a strong pre tax income of $134,000,000 in the 3rd quarter, reflecting its high quality portfolio. We estimate this year's U.

Speaker 2

S. And Canadian Class 8 market to be in a range of 295,000 to 315,000 trucks And next year to be in a range of 260,000 to 300,000 vehicles. Customers are replacing their trucks With the new heavy and medium duty Peterbilt and Kenworth models that enhance their operational efficiencies, achieve industry leading fuel economy And attract and retain the best drivers. Demand is strong for Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks with the Q1 of 2024 Filling in quickly. In Europe, this year's truck industry registrations in the above 16 ton segment Are estimated to be in a range of 310,000 to 330,000 vehicles.

Speaker 2

The 2024 market is expected to be in the range of 160,000 to 300,000 trucks. The new DAF trucks have redefined the premium truck segment in Europe and offer superior aerodynamics, Award winning fuel economy and enhanced features that make them the driver's choice. The South American above 16 ton market is projected to be in a range of 105,000 to 115,000 trucks this year and in a similar range next year. DAF Brazil recently celebrated its 10th anniversary and has increased its greater than 16 ton share to a record 10%. The DAF lineup of trucks is performing exceptionally well for customers in all Brazilian operating environments.

Speaker 2

PACCAR recently announced its participation in a new battery cell joint venture. The joint venture will be located in the United States And we'll manufacture battery cells for use in medium and heavy duty trucks. PACCAR's proprietary battery cells will create value for our customers And help them achieve their future operational and environmental goals. PACCAR's employees and dealers are delivering excellent results for our customers And we're excited about the future. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Harry Skippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services and other business highlights.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Preston. PACCAR delivered 50,100 trucks During the Q3. We estimate 4th quarter deliveries to be similar and in the range of 48,000 to 51,000 trucks. More production days in the Q4 in Europe will be offset by fewer production days due to holidays in North America. The supply base is improving, but continues to limit production.

Speaker 3

Truck Parts and Other gross margins increased to 19.5% in the 3rd quarter. We anticipate 4th quarter close margins to be around 19%, reflecting the strong performance of our new truck bottles and PACCAR Parts. Pega Parts delivered 3rd quarter gross margins of 31.5%. Pega Parts' innovative programs such as Advanced fleet management services and predictive dealer inventory management help customers increase vehicle uptime and their financial performance. For the Q4, we expect parts sales to be 7% to 9% higher than in the same period of last year.

Speaker 3

Pega Financial Services results in the 3rd quarter benefited from excellent portfolio quality And positive used truck results. Pre tax income was $134,000,000 Becker Financial is the market leader supporting the superior Kenworth, Peterbilt and Dove products with innovative technologies And a strong global used truck network. In the last 2 years, DAF, Kenworth and Peterbilt have introduced more new truck models than at any comparable time in the company's history. The pace of these introductions continues With the new flagship Peterbilt Model 589 that begins production in the Q1 of 2024. PACCAR's capital investments in new and expanded facilities, innovative products and new technologies Have created the highest performing trucks and transportation solutions in the industry and will contribute to excellent financial returns for many years.

Speaker 3

PACCAR's return on invested capital further improved to an industry leading 35% in the 1st 9 months of this year. This year's capital expenditures are projected to be between $650,000,000 $675,000,000 And will increase to $675,000,000 to $725,000,000 next year. Research and development expenses will be $410,000,000 to $420,000,000 this year, an increase to between 470 at $520,000,000 next year. In addition to the capital and R and D investments, The company will own a 30% share in the battery cell joint venture and expects to invest $600,000,000 to $900,000,000 over the coming 3 years. With the most advanced truck range in the industry, efficient investments, Strong aftermarket parts and financial services businesses and exciting new strategic opportunities, PACCAR is positioned well for the future.

Speaker 3

Thank you. We would be pleased to answer your questions.

Operator

Thank you. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure you are unmuted locally. And if you would like to withdraw your question, please press star followed by 2. Our first question today comes from Tammy Zakaria from JPMorgan. Tammy, please go ahead.

Operator

Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hi. Thank you so much for taking my questions. So my first question is about parts growth. I think in the press release, we said you're opening a PDC in Germany next year. So how should we be thinking about parts growth in 2024 in terms of how long does it take a PDC to sort of ramp and reach to run rate capacity.

Speaker 4

How to think about growth overall? If you could give some color on that, that would be very helpful.

Speaker 2

Sure. Happy to start with that and Harry can add anything he wants. I think what Harry shared with you is that we think parts growth is going to be in the 7% to 9% in the 4th quarter. And to your point on the effect of a PDC, it's almost immediately good for the business, right? What a PDC does is it allows us to have closer points Contact with our customers, get them parts in a more quick way and support their businesses for more same day or next day parts delivery.

Speaker 2

So it's really quickly beneficial to them, Tammy.

Speaker 4

Got it. That's very helpful. And then How should we think about detrimental margins next year given you're expecting truck sales down both in Europe and U. S, Canada?

Speaker 2

I think what we've been able to do in the last few years and we shared this as we've introduced more new product Any time in our history, we continue to that with the new Peterbilt Model 589. Those products are doing exceptionally well for us in the marketplace. So we're pleased with how they're performing and that means performing for our customers. So they're getting value out of that. And I think we'll watch how the market develops for next We have a lot better insights into margin and what's going on as we get into the Q1 for 2024.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. Thank you so much.

Speaker 2

You bet.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today is from Steve Volkmann from Jefferies. Steve, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking the question. Preston, I think it was you who was talking about the launch of the new Peterbilt, I think in January of 'twenty four, you said, sorry if I got that wrong. I'm just curious. You're right.

Speaker 2

How big of a launch is that?

Speaker 5

Okay, great. How big of a launch is that? How much of your North American revenue could that be? And where I'm trying to go with this is You guys always seem to engineer in sort of higher margins as you do these changeovers. So I'm trying to figure out how much of a tailwind that might be In 2024.

Speaker 2

Hey, Steve. Well, first of all, I mean, the thing about it, what we try to engineer in is higher value for our customers. And I think that that's what we've I've been able to do with these new products. The 589, well, the right word is it's cool. When we did the introduction for it, It was just exciting to see it.

Speaker 2

It's going to be iconic in the industry. It looks fantastic and I think it will be a great flagship for the Peterbilt team. As far as percentages, maybe Harry, you want to

Speaker 3

The $589,000,000 Steve will replace the $389,000,000 And a good way to think about it, the $389,000,000 is now About 20% of Peterbilt's production, so maybe 6%, 7% of Pega's total production. And the 589, like I said, will be placed and maybe grow even a little bit more.

Speaker 5

Great. Okay. Thank you for that. And then my follow-up is on the financial services, Harry. I'm curious, Obviously, it was down a little bit year over year.

Speaker 5

How do the higher rates that we're seeing in the market kind of layer in? Because Obviously, you get some income, I guess, on your cash balances, which is great. But then there's probably some headwinds In the finance book and I don't know, just any color you could give us on that would be great.

Speaker 3

The portfolio quality, Steve, continues to be very strong. We have a portfolio of almost $20,000,000,000 now With past dues less than 1%, so yes, higher interest rates do drive higher payments for our customers. But with all the new products that we launched that have That of fuel efficiency, they do see savings on the fuel bill that more than offset the higher interest payments in today's environment.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you, guys.

Speaker 3

You bet.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Chad Dillard from Bernstein. Chad, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hi. Good morning, guys. So first question for you is how much visibility do you have into engine rebuilds? And what does it tell you about your engine parts demand or what it could look like more broadly into 2024?

Speaker 2

Well, I think we have pretty good visibility to the life of the engines. Our parts team does a fantastic job of tracking miles. A Our vehicles are connected, so we get to see what miles are accumulating. We obviously manage what's going on from an engine part utilization standpoint. And then as the Population is still reaching a point of maturity.

Speaker 2

We expect to see the amount of rebuilds increasing over time. So that should be still accretive to the parts business.

Speaker 6

Got it. That's helpful. And second question, can you talk about your approach to managing the growth in AIR POCKET in 2024? Just given that we do have a pre buy ahead of the 20 7 emission standards that could probably start in 2025 and 2026. Just want to get a sense for how you're thinking about labor, line rates, maintaining your suppliers so you can catch the rebound?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think that what we see is right and we've been talking about this for a little while with you guys is our approach has been to Spend money in research to make sure we have the right products sitting out there and we do. So we're really well positioned with the newest product lineup. That matters a lot. And then I think where we're sitting in time is markets that haven't been able to fully met for a few years.

Speaker 2

And now people starting to think about what the future might be in terms of 2027 emissions, which could make this a stronger for longer kind of a good approach. Obviously, your word was air pocket. I can tell you, I've never heard that word before, but I'll use it with you. And if there's an air pocket next year, we'll see what that looks like as we get into 2024.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 2

You bet.

Operator

Thanks. Thank you. Our next question is from Rob Wertheimer from Melius Research. Rob, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 1

Yes. One market question then hopefully more interesting strategic. So just on the outlook, is there any material mix shift Kind of coming through on your customer conversations or order flow towards vocational and just in general, does that outlook anticipate A decline in sentiment or is it sort of follow on with one you've already seen in the customer base?

Speaker 2

So Rob, I think you're paying attention to what's going on. I mean, we do see a really strong vocational market out there. We see a strong medium duty market. The LTL market is very strong. And then as we were talking about in the last question from Chad.

Speaker 2

The idea that I think customers that are sophisticated are paying attention to the next few years and want to keep their fleet age at a low level. So there's a lot of contemplation for them to stay on a smart buying cycle for them. And frankly, as we've said and we keep saying, right, These new trucks are providing good value to them. So there's a reason for them to keep buying trucks. And I think that all factors into where we think the market is going to be, looking forward.

Speaker 1

Okay, perfect. And then another one just on the battery investment. This has been a subject of some debate As your future trucks will presumably have higher content with batteries and autonomy and other things, but just sticking with the batteries for the moment. And some question as to whether those batteries would be commodity provided by somebody else or more individually designed for your trucks And this seems to lean in the latter direction. I wonder if you could comment on the proprietary nature of it, the chemistry and what you expect This investment and the timing of when those trucks might actually start to roll in numbers to market.

Speaker 1

I'll stop there. Thanks.

Speaker 2

There was a lot of questions in there, but let me kind of give you an overview and come back into it if you want to. So what we see is as we move forward, there's going to be a Host of technologies employed for how we use motive power. I think clean diesel is going to be part of it. We obviously think that batteries are going to be part of it as we did this joint venture In the proprietary battery cells, we think that hydrogen can play a role as well, whether that's internal combustion or it could be through fuel cells. But in the case of batteries, when you create a battery electric vehicle, the cost of the vehicle is highly impacted and influenced by the cost of the battery.

Speaker 2

So having it be More vertically integrated is an advantage we think for our customers and gives us an ability to control both the energy in the battery as well as the battery energy management System to the vehicle. So we felt like getting involved in that space was important and we think that it will be a few years before it develops. Obviously, we don't have our regulatory approvals yet. And so we'll Gives us a little bit of caution that we need those approvals for, forward looking, but that feels like it's going in a good direction. And then as I think about the kinds of chemistry you asked about, The technology we've chosen is LFP, lithium iron phosphate or some derivative of that that we might use.

Speaker 2

And the benefit of that is it's A safer battery chemistry, it doesn't rely on rare earth minerals, it's more durable, it's faster to charge and it has a better life capability So, and a better cost structure. So all of those factors are the reason we chose that technology and I give huge, huge credit to our technology teams that have thought this through for the last several years As they made this decision and got us going on this great path.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 2

You bet.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from David Raso from Evercore ISI. David, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Thank you very much. The comments earlier about the Q1 of 2024 are starting to fill up quickly. Can you give us some insight on how the pricing is for those Q1 deliveries? And then maybe a sense of the cadence Year over year that you expect the U. S./Canada down 8% to play out for the industry?

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Well, I think if you think about pricing, what we did is we shared with you what our where our vision is best, David, and that's at the 4th quarter. So that's where we gave you a gross margin expectation around 19%. And as I said, it's filling in quickly. But I think that the key we've been focusing on is making sure that customers Do realize the value of the products. They are.

Speaker 2

That factors into the pricing obviously. And I'll say it's a competitive world out there. So I think it's Look forward to having the conversation with you on pricing and what's going on in the marketplace as we get into the earnings in the Q1 there. So that kind of is where that sits. From a secondary question of cadence, I think we're seeing, as I said, the Q1 looks pretty good.

Speaker 2

And I think that the overall sentiment is while there may be some moderation in truckload, people are trying to figure out how to think about the next 3 years. And so I don't I'm not smart enough to know what Q2, Q3, Q4 are going to look like. And we just feel like We'll see some adjustments there from this year, but that it should still at a stay at like a replacement demand level.

Speaker 8

That's helpful. The order book right now, how far can the dealers order out to, say U. S, Canada into 2024?

Speaker 2

Looking at the first half.

Speaker 8

First half. Okay. Thank you so much.

Speaker 2

You bet.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs. Jerry, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Yes. Hi. Good morning. Good afternoon, everyone.

Speaker 5

Hi, Jerry.

Speaker 10

I wonder

Speaker 9

if we could just talk about hi. The new product portfolio, I mean, in Europe, I think your profitability truck has doubled with the new products similar on the medium duty product lineup. Is it possible, Harry, for us to have a discussion of what proportion of the portfolio fits This new product paradigm versus the type of rollouts that we have still in front of us over the next Couple of years, how far away are we through rolling out this new higher margin portfolio that It seems to be a big step higher for you folks.

Speaker 3

The new Dove is currently a little over 80% Of all the trucks that DAF is building, I remember DAF is also building trucks for export outside Europe. But I would say within Europe, Almost all the trucks that we're selling are the new DAF with the improved aerodynamics and the better fuel economy because that's what customers want. And then going forward, yes, we're planning to bring that new Dove product also to other markets. And any market where we're currently selling Dove It's an opportunity to sell the new DAF in the future.

Speaker 9

And sorry, Harry, can we expand that conversation in North America as well? So With the $589,000,000 rolling out, what's the remaining opportunity within the book for upgrades that you folks have planned?

Speaker 3

Like I said, the $589,000,000 is the $389,000,000 is 20% of Peterbilt's production. So it's about 6%, 7% maybe of PACCAR's production. So with the $589,000,000 replacing the $389,000,000 next year, it will be a similar percentage, I would think, as the $389,000,000 is today.

Speaker 9

And there's a pipeline for new products from there, it sounds like?

Speaker 2

Of course, yes. I'll help a little bit here. It's like You see what our R and D numbers are for next year. We think there's a ton of great projects that we have out there that provide good value to our customers and shareholders. And so that pipeline is very full.

Speaker 9

Okay, super. And can I ask On the battery electric investment, you folks have really good connectivity with your clients on the consultation side? Once you get the plant up and running, how quickly based on your conversations do you think demand will Ramp up, how big are the concerns around the utilities' ability to keep up versus having a product that's going to be producible at scale that you folks Effectively going to be solving for the industry in 2027?

Speaker 2

Yes, I think you just captured the issues that are unknowable at this Regulation is a factor, energy is a factor, infrastructure is a factor and the rate of adoption for EVs, price is a factor as well. What our position is as PACCAR is we want to make sure that we offer our customers the right solutions, right? So we make the investments now. We're less concerned about whether the adoption curve is rapid in 'twenty seven or if it's 'twenty eight or whenever it is. We'll have great diesel engines, we'll have great electric Vehicles will upgrade hydrogen vehicles and that puts us in a position of supporting their needs regardless of the circumstance.

Speaker 9

Appreciate the discussion. Thank you.

Speaker 2

You bet.

Operator

Our next question today comes from Steven Fisher from UBS. Steven, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Thanks. Good morning. Preston, you gave us some reasons for generally high margins in terms of the investments In technology and manufacturing, but is what was so much better than you expected in margins in the quarter and at the TPO level? I mean, So it's like 100 basis points above your midpoint. Just curious kind of was there any one of those factors or just conservatism that you're now baking into your numbers?

Speaker 2

I think that we as we've shared with you and Stephen is that we're looking at the steadiness of supply has been improving, We certainly had some impacts from that. So that's a factor in there. I think that our rest of world markets are doing exceptionally well for us in addition. And so that's a factor in there as well. And we just had a smoother set of builds that probably happened for us.

Speaker 2

And Those are probably the biggest things.

Speaker 11

Okay. That's helpful. And then I'm curious What indication do you have from your suppliers for costs on 2024? At this point, does it make sense to assume that The costs are generally going to be higher, and do you have an overall sort of cost strategy Do you think about framing up 2024 at this point?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think that as you can see, you see various Commodities moving in different directions, some moving in a downward position, some moving up. And obviously, there's some labor pressure. Those are probably the biggest influencers on cost right now. And I think that we'll look at 2024 when we get into January and see how that's looking then.

Speaker 11

Okay. Just one quick clarification. The cost you mentioned on the R and D sorry, on the new battery plant, How does that flow through the financials? Is that going to be an R and D is that part of R and D costs or where does that flow through?

Speaker 3

That won't show up as R and D. It will show up as an investment as part of our 30% investment in the joint venture.

Speaker 11

Okay, very good. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Tim Thein from Citigroup. Tim, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you. Good morning. The question I just wanted to come back, maybe Preston, a little bit higher level thoughts on parts In 2024. If you look back, historically, there has been some relationship when When PACCAR's truck volumes decline and industry profitability comes under or is under pressure that has weighed On parts sales, obviously not nearly the same kind of magnitude, but just as you but we're coming through weird times from Inventory stocking levels and I can imagine that maybe there was some restocking that helped parts growth this year, but Just kind of weigh this all together in an environment where global truck volumes are declining and And from what we can observe, trucker profitability in developed markets under some pressure.

Speaker 6

How do you think that all Comes together in terms of PACCAR's part sales in 2024? Any just again, I know you're not going to give us one estimate, but just how you're thinking about that for 2024?

Speaker 2

Absolutely, Tim. Fun to talk about it. I think the Overarching view I take of it is our parts team has done a great job of transitioning over the past several years. They're not really parts providers, they're transportation Solutions providers, right? So they're thinking about what's valuable to the customer and what's valuable in the engagement with the dealer.

Speaker 2

And they've done a really good job of that. And I think that's foundationally lifted their performance over time, which goes along to the was it roughly 9% per year growth they've had over the past 20 years. So I think that they've done a really nice job of continuing to evolve the business through the application of technology and analytics. And I expect that that will Over the medium term continue and long term continue. So positive in that regard.

Speaker 2

I heard everything you said about the sensitivity to market. There's truth in that as well. And that way we'll just look at what 2024 does then.

Speaker 6

Okay. Fair enough. And then maybe One, just from

Speaker 10

an inventory

Speaker 6

level at your dealers, both new and used, Just where do we sit there? And I guess kind of the related question is the appetite for dealers from a stocking perspective in 2024. Just what is that said? I'm sure it varies by geography, but maybe some thoughts on that. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes, very good, Tim. You did ask that the first time, sorry I missed it. We saw that there was some probably Strong interest in having enough inventory when supply was limited. And I think that that was mitigated for a little bit. And I would say things are more back to normal in terms of overstock, destock and kind of sitting at a level where inventory feels like a rational and healthy level for our dealers now.

Speaker 6

All right. Thank

Speaker 2

you. You bet.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today is from Nicole DeBlase From Deutsche Bank, Nicole, please go ahead. Your line is open. Yes, thanks. Good morning, guys.

Speaker 3

Hey, Nicole.

Speaker 7

Maybe just starting on Europe. So obviously, a lot of talk about U. S. And Canada on this call, but What are you guys seeing from an order perspective within Europe that's kind of underpinning a weaker outlook for 2024 relative to the U. S?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think that what we're seeing in Europe is like we have good fill going into the Q1. It feels like the general economies over there feel a little bit more moderated than they are here. And so there's probably more contemplation going on within the customer base there. And I hear you asking me

Speaker 7

to add anything to that. Okay. Okay. Makes sense.

Speaker 3

No, I think that's absolutely correct, Preston. The market is a little bit softer there, and that's why we're forecasting a mark Between 260,000 300,000 for next year. So that's somewhat of a decline compared to this year.

Speaker 7

Understood. And then in the U. S, can you just speak to a little bit of what you're hearing by customer size? So any major divergence in order activity from like small versus medium versus large fleets.

Speaker 2

I think it's kind of interesting is that like we said earlier in the macro scale of it, There's a lot of sectors that are doing exceptionally well right now. The vocational sector is probably just spinning up. It's a very strong sector for PACCAR in In North America with Peterbilt and Kenworth having roughly 40% of that market, so that's good. See some real strength in the LTL market as well. See real strength in the medium duty market as well.

Speaker 2

As I shared earlier, I think that the large truckload carriers are contemplating what they're going to do and thinking about the next 3 years and keeping their fleets at a young spot. And I think for all our customers, there's the advantage of the new truck, right? If the truck is providing a 7% benefit in fuel economy, it's compelling reasons to buy that truck, Plus the drivers love it. So those things factor in and it kind of gives you a walk through across the sectors of the market.

Speaker 7

Perfect. Thank you. I'll pass it on.

Speaker 2

You

Operator

bet. Thank you. Our next question is from Matt Elkott from Cowen. Matt, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Good morning. Thank you. So your 2024 U. S. And Canada Class 8 forecast, It reflects what seems to be a smaller decline than some may have feared.

Speaker 10

My question is, given you guys have higher exposure to Infrastructure than some of your peers, do you think PACCAR can do even better than this forecast in the U. S. That is?

Speaker 2

Better than the forecast in terms of?

Speaker 10

A smaller decline even than the 8% that you're expecting for the industry.

Speaker 3

A strong presence in the vocational segment where we have 40% market share, That strength obviously should translate into PACCAR doing really well next year.

Speaker 10

Okay. But So relative to the industry forecast, do you think you might be able to outperform or you're not ready to say that?

Speaker 2

Well, I think what we did is we gave what the range because that's what we think the range could be, right? That's why we came out 260 to 300 because that's how we see it.

Speaker 10

Okay. And then just one more follow-up. If you if we do have a higher mix of vocational in the next year or 2, can you just talk a bit more about what it could mean for Margins and pricing and as well as the kind of fluidity of the manufacturing process?

Speaker 2

Well, our truck plants and it's a good opportunity. Thanks for bringing it up. I mean, the mixture and how that works is our truck plants are just done An absolutely amazing job around the world, managing the last few years and they are artisans Being able to build the trucks that they need to build. So I couldn't be more proud of them and pleased with the results that they've delivered. And I think that if we see mix shifts from On highway into the vocational market, that's very adaptable for us.

Speaker 2

We can build any truck in our factories that we need to. And they're very good at putting those trucks out. So I think that that'll be Just fine for us if we see that shift and it won't it'll be good for PACCAR and good for our customers.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

You

Operator

bet. Thank you. Our next question is from Jeff Kaufman from Vertical Research Partners, Jeff, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Thank you very much and congratulations. I want to think a little bit about this Joint venture. So you said, I guess, two questions. Number 1 on CapEx, you said $600,000,000 to $900,000,000 Let's assume that you can get all of the approvals that you need. Does that imply when we're thinking about 25, 26 CapEx, we could be looking at $1,000,000,000 plus in terms of total firm CapEx?

Speaker 12

That's question 1.

Speaker 2

I'll just go for that question, then you can go second one. Harry will

Speaker 3

probably take So the $600,000,000 to $900,000,000 investment in the joint venture will be showing up as an investment. It will not show up as Our capital investment plan. So the capital numbers we just mentioned for this year and next year are without the joint venture.

Speaker 12

Okay. Thank you. And then question 2, I'm thinking back to the future here, 21 gigawatts At the factory, buddy. I want to bring it into something that I can convert into trucks. So if I think of 21 gigawatts And maybe your smaller trucks are 250 kilowatt to 300 kilowatt hour batteries and your larger trucks are kind of 600 to 7.50 Kilowatt hour batteries, I'm just going to take an average of 500.

Speaker 12

Are we talking about kind of 40,000 to 50,000 vehicles a year That this plant could theoretically battery and then you would have a 30% interest in that that shows up as other income investment in joint venture?

Speaker 2

Yes, Jeff, that is perfect math. I think you can use that. You probably can go back to the future with that.

Speaker 12

Awesome. Thanks so much. Have a great day.

Speaker 2

You too.

Operator

Our last question registered is from Scott Group from Wolfe Research. Scott, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 13

Hey, thanks. So I just wanted to just follow-up on one of the earlier questions. What percentage of your mix It's typically the large truckload. And then within the 2024 trucks, is there any change in mix So sales with the MX versus Nod, is that mix going higher or lower?

Speaker 2

On the mix of sales, I mean, I think that you can kind of see variance within the model, right? I think if you're asking, it's like you could look at fleets and Customers in the midsized over the road segments being a big part of it, vocational is kind of a part of it. They need to put the LTL as a part of it In the greater than 1600 Class 8 markets. And I think that they split up as the biggest part of that is the truckload and then obviously the LTL combined. And then you get into the vocational behind is next behind that.

Speaker 2

So that's kind of how we think of it. And we don't really worry through what the percentage of each will be because there's such overlap between them.

Speaker 13

And then any changes again in the of what you're selling for 2024, if MX penetration is higher, lower, unchanged?

Speaker 2

Yes. We think the MX engine is going to be doing really well next year, right. It was 43% of our build in the quarter this quarter and we expect to see that growing. We've been working through supply constraints on it And as we've worked through that, we think there's great upside for that next year.

Speaker 6

Okay.

Speaker 13

Any color on how to think about the FinCo margins From here, loss provision is up a little bit, but how do we think about Finco from here?

Speaker 3

Finco should continue to do strong in the Q4 and next year. Credit losses were $6,000,000 in the quarter, but that's really a very small number to the total almost $20,000,000,000 portfolio. So Excellent credit quality. And like I said, we expect the finance company to continue to do well. Okay.

Speaker 13

And then if I could just ask one more, just big picture. I know there's been a lot of questions about gross margin, but you go back 30 years, it's never you've never had a year At over 16% and this year is going to be over 19%. So it's a lot of what you've been talking about. I guess, what do you think is the right What's the new range that you would think about through a cycle for PACCAR gross margin going forward?

Speaker 2

Well, I think that the reason we've seen that gross margin is because there is an incredible team of people at PACCAR that are working every day to give our customers great value and they're succeeding in that. It's a huge part of it. We have a fantastic dealer network. They're doing a great job. And I think our customers are seeing the value in that as well.

Speaker 2

So that's the overarching things that are driving it up. We aim to continue to deliver on that. I think predicting the future gets a little risky and we'll look at how it comes through. It depends on the cycles and everything else. But I can't Be more pleased with how PACCAR is positioned for the future and what it will be able to deliver.

Speaker 10

All

Speaker 13

right. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it.

Speaker 2

You bet. You bet. Have a good day.

Operator

Thank you. This is all the questions we have today. So I'd like to hand back to management for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call and thank you, operator.

Operator

Thank you everyone for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines and have a lovely day.

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Key Takeaways

  • Record Q3 Results: Net income rose 60% YoY to $1.23 billion and revenue climbed 23% to $8.7 billion, while Truck Parts & Other gross margin expanded to 19.5% from 14.9%.
  • Strong Truck Deliveries & Outlook: PACCAR delivered 50,100 trucks in Q3, expects 48,000–51,000 in Q4, and projects the U.S./Canada Class 8 market at 295,000–315,000 units this year and 260,000–300,000 next year.
  • Innovation & Investment: Major investments in new DAF, Kenworth and Peterbilt models drove industry-leading fuel economy and uptime, with capital expenditures of $650–675 million in 2023 and $675–725 million in 2024 and R&D of $410–420 million in 2023 and $470–520 million in 2024.
  • Battery Cell Joint Venture: PACCAR will own 30% of a U.S.-based battery cell plant using proprietary LFP chemistry, investing $600–900 million over three years to support its medium- and heavy-duty electric truck roadmap.
  • Aftermarket & Financial Services: PACCAR Parts revenues increased to $1.58 billion with a 31.5% gross margin and 10% profit growth, while PACCAR Financial posted $134 million pre-tax income in Q3 with under 1% past-due portfolio.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
PACCAR Q3 2023
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