Graco Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 26, 2023

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Third Quarter Conference Call for Graco Inc. If you wish to access the replay for this call, you may do so by visiting the company's website at www.graco.com. Graco has additional information available in the PowerPoint slide presentation, which is available as part of the webcast player. At the request of the company, we will open the conference up for questions and answers after the opening remarks from management. During this call, various remarks may be made by management about their expectations, plans and prospects for the future.

Operator

These remarks constitute forward looking statements for the purpose of the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated as a result of various risk factors, including those identified in the Item 1A of the company's 2022 Annual Report on Form 10 ks and in the Item 1A of the company's most recent quarterly report on Form 10 Q. These reports are available on the company's website at www.graco.com and the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. Forward looking statements reflect management's current views and speak only as of the time they are made. The company undertakes no obligation to update to statements in light of new information or future events.

Operator

I will now turn the conference over to Chris Knuzzi, Executive Vice President, Corporate Controller.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. I'm here today with Mark Sheehan and David Lowe. I will provide a brief overview of our quarterly results before turning the call over to Mark for additional discussion. Yesterday, Graco reported 3rd quarter sales of $540,000,000 a decrease of 1% from the Q3 of last year. The effect of currency translation increased sales by 1 percentage point or approximately $5,000,000 Based on current exchange rates, currency translation should have no effect on full year net sales and an unfavorable impact Approximately 1 percentage point on net earnings for the full year.

Speaker 1

Reported net earnings increased 15% to $133,000,000 for the quarter. Diluted net earnings per share was $0.77 an increase of 15% over last year. During the quarter, we recognized a non cash goodwill impairment charge of $8,000,000 and a $9,000,000 gain from the reduction in the fair value of contingent consideration related to the reorganization of a business acquired in 2020. Both of these items were included in unallocated operating expense. Excluding the impairment charge, contingent consideration adjustment And tax benefits from stock option exercises, adjusted net earnings per share was 0 point 7 $6 The gross margin rate increased 4.90 basis points in the quarter.

Speaker 1

Strong price realization and lower product costs were more than enough to offset lower factory volumes. While material costs have somewhat moderated compared to what we experienced last year, Lower factory volumes and increased operational spending continue to be headwinds for the quarter year to date. Total operating expenses increased $3,000,000 or 3% in the quarter, primarily from volume and rate related increases of $1,000,000 and incremental share based compensation of $2,000,000 Gross margin rate improvement More than offset these increased operating expenses during the quarter, resulting in operating margin rate growth of 4 percentage points. Contractor operating margins increased 5 percentage points to 30% and process operating margins increased 7 percentage points to 31% compared to the Q3 last year. At current volumes, we believe these operating margin rates are sustainable for the remainder of the year.

Speaker 1

Non operating expenses decreased $2,000,000 as a result of increased interest income on cash held. The adjusted effective tax rate was 19% for the quarter, which is consistent with our expected full year tax rate were approximately 19% to 20% on an as adjusted basis. Cash provided by operations totaled $491,000,000 for the year to date, an increase of $219,000,000 from last year, mostly driven by higher net earnings and a reduction in inventory purchases. Cash provided by operations as a percentage of net earnings is 124% for the year. Through the end of the quarter, we repurchased 427,000 shares for $31,000,000 We have continued to repurchase shares in the 1st weeks of October and as of market close yesterday, we have repurchased 1,300,000 shares for $93,000,000 year to date.

Speaker 1

During the quarter, we repaid $75,000,000 in private placement notes Plus a prepayment fee of $700,000 This represented the final series of the private placement debt we entered into in 2012. We also made year to date dividend payments of $119,000,000 and capital expenditures of $146,000,000 with $89,000,000 related to facility expansion projects. Finally, our full year estimates for unallocated corporate expense and capital expenditures can be found in the conference call slide deck on Page 10. I'll now turn the call over to Mark for further segment and regional commentary.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everybody. All of my comments this morning will be on an organic constant currency basis. In the face of a modest 2% revenue decline, we reported record 3rd quarter operating earnings and operating profit margin. We experienced another quarter of strong broad based sales growth in the Process segment, which was up 9% And 13% for the quarter year respectively.

Speaker 2

The Industrial segment was down slightly on lower project in our Gema powder business. And our Contractors segment declined 8% from a combination of a difficult comparison in EMEA versus last year's record quarter and the softening of global construction markets. Overall, we're pleased that the company achieved 3rd quarter operating margins of 30% or more in each of our segments. This was driven by significant growth from the Process segment coupled with strong operating performance from both industrial and contractor. Realized pricing actions remain strong and our factories have rebounded nicely after a couple of tough years of getting product out the door.

Speaker 2

Input costs remain elevated, But in general, commodity prices have stabilized and should provide less of a headwind for the remainder of the year. At the close of the quarter, Our consolidated backlog was $300,000,000 a decrease of $30,000,000 from the previous quarter $55,000,000 lower

Speaker 3

than at

Speaker 2

the beginning of the year. Backlogs have returned to normal levels within Contractor, but they remain slightly elevated in Semiconductor Products and our Gamma Powder business. Now turning to some commentary on our segments and regions. Contractor segment sales were down 8% for the quarter. Sales declined across all regions with the steepest contraction on a percentage basis being in EMEA.

Speaker 2

EMEA's results for the quarter were impacted by challenging year over year comparisons. In 2022, contractor Sales in the mail were up 12% in the 3rd quarter as we were able to ship a considerable amount of our backlog when supply chain constraints started to alleviate. There was also robust order activity in the Q3 of 20 22 in advance of our October price increase. In Asia Pacific, strong growth outside of China Was not enough to offset declines in China from weaker container and construction markets this year. New product introductions and contractor have helped drive incremental revenue in a challenging macro environment.

Speaker 2

Products like our new lightweight quick shot electric powered architectural coatings gun package and the reactor 2 component proportioning system for spray foam and polyurea applications have been well received by customers globally. Profitability has improved in Contractor as Pricing actions are now starting to offset the significant cost increases experienced in the last 2 years and product mix is more favorable than it was a year ago. Industrial segment sales declined 1%. Strong sales in Asia Pacific were offset by timing of project completion and in our powder coating business. Activity in key end markets such as alternative energy, electronics and battery has been good.

Speaker 2

Elevated backlogs are expected to decrease as we work our way through the 4th quarter. The Process segment grew 9% in the 3rd quarter. Increases were posted in most business units and across all reportable regions, led by double digit growth in vehicle services and semiconductor. Resilient volume, strong pricing and good expense management drove incremental margins of 102% for the quarter and operating earnings of 31%. Our lubrication equipment, diaphragm pumps, semiconductor equipment and environmental equipment businesses all posted revenue gains in the Q3 and for the year.

Speaker 2

We've been able to leverage this growth into record operating profit margins for this segment this year. Moving to our outlook. Our sales results for the 1st 9 months were in line with our annual low our annual guide of low single digits organic growth on a constant currency basis. While macroeconomic conditions worldwide are unpredictable and Business Temple has slowed from a year ago, we're pleased with the improvements that we're making in the business and that are driving record levels of profitability. Current order rates, Along with backlogs, new product activity and strong pricing gives us confidence that we will attain our full year 2023 revenue guide.

Speaker 2

That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, we're ready for questions.

Operator

Thank you. The question and answer session will begin at this time. Our first question comes from Mike Halloran with Robert W. Baird. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning, everybody. It's Ed on for Mike today. I know that we picked at this last quarter, but I'm going to take another stab at it. Obviously, process has been A bright spot in the portfolio, both from a top line and a margin perspective. But could you maybe dig in about why The sustainability of demand has been so good, particularly why lubrication and vehicle services continue to be so strong.

Speaker 4

And then additionally, I know you mentioned that backlog in semi continues to be good. Can you maybe talk about why You're seeing maybe more sustainable trends versus some of the broader maybe your broader peers in the semi space recognizing that your is a little bit different, using peers very loosely there?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. I'll take a stab at it. I mean, a couple of things. Obviously, we did some nice pricing Over the last 18 months or so, which I think we're still seeing the benefit of. So when you look at our headline numbers, Yes, the revenue growth does have pricing baked into it.

Speaker 2

Notwithstanding that though, when you look across the portfolio of things that we have in that segment, Whether it's our diaphragm pump business where we've got some really good new products that are contributing to the growth. In semiconductor, we have been working down orders throughout the year, which were actually embarrassingly high a year ago and the team has done a really nice job of Getting some throughput in the factory and making a lot of efficiency improvements there. The outlook for semiconductor this year wasn't so good and I think our orders are kind of Falling in line with that, but as you look into 'twenty four and into 'twenty five, there is a lot of investment going on there. And so we feel like this is a good catch up year for us. And hopefully, business remains robust as we kind of work our way through the backlog we've got left and then as we roll into 2025.

Speaker 2

Vehicle service team is just doing really well in lubrication overall. Of course, we got Versus, but we also have industrial lube And we're seeing decent growth in both of those categories. It's a combination of superior execution, The ability to deliver out of the factory, some new product launches that we've had that have really taken a nice hold in the marketplace and that's And combined with the pricing actions they've done and watching expenses, they've really been able to drive profitability at an extremely high rate there. Our environmental businesses are doing well. Of course, the QED business, where we manage the fluids in and around landfills And also the gas analyzer business that we have that does that, analyzes the methane gas that's coming off of the landfills.

Speaker 2

It seems like after a couple of years where the big players in landfill weren't making investments, they have started to pick up a little bit there. And so we've got a great product line and I think we're benefiting there. We have a strong team, good factory performance. I think that it's a combination of pricing, great execution in the factories, some nice new product launches and reduction of backlog, it's really driven our results this year.

Speaker 4

Thank you. That's really robust answer. Super helpful, And maybe switching gears a little bit, obviously, Aenga has been with The team now for a little bit of time, I know that working on M and A and building that pipeline has been a priority. Could you maybe comment The progress with building that pipeline, whether you feel like you're getting the appropriate traction and where you need to be, Any color on the pipeline development and kind of the process would be helpful.

Speaker 2

Yes, thanks. Thanks for bringing it up too. Inge has been on my team now for almost 2 years, I think it will be 2 years in January. And Inge and Ryan Patrick, who works with Inge, have done a really nice job of working with the business units In developing our M and A pipeline of ideas and companies. It's interesting, I would tell you that a couple of years ago, I probably could have walked around the And ask people to give me their M and A pipelines and I might have come up with 100 companies, but I would say that less than half of them had been fully vetted Where we actually knew about the company, we knew who to contact, we had a good understanding of what the strategic fit was and why they might be an attractive target.

Speaker 2

So What we've been doing in the last year or so is really sorting through those pipelines and adding to them where it made sense and taking out Some of the companies where we really didn't have a good strategic vision. So as I sit here today, I think we have over 100 companies in our pipeline. They've all been fully vetted. Of course, there's a lot of things that go into whether you can actually do a deal or not, but I feel like we're in better shape today than we've been for quite some time in terms of the robustness of the pipeline, the quality of the pipeline and the quality of the discussions that we're having with companies that we're interested in.

Speaker 4

Great. That's super helpful. I appreciate all the color. I'll pass it on.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Matt.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hi, this is Tyler Boyd on for Dean.

Speaker 2

Hi Tyler.

Speaker 1

My first question, just can you give us

Speaker 5

a sense for what the monthly cadence of sales were? Was it decelerated as the quarter went on? Or any color there, as well as how things are trending into October?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think the cadence was pretty stable. To be honest with you, it's been hanging in there. The comps are interesting, right, because of last year with all the pricing stuff that we did And the supply chain constraints and people placing orders ahead of time just to get into the queue, that type of thing. But in terms of the absolute level of orders that we're seeing Across Graco, I'd characterize it as stable at this point.

Speaker 5

Great. That's really helpful.

Speaker 1

And then, Do you mind just

Speaker 5

touching on how inventories are looking in the channel at both the home center and propane?

Speaker 2

Yes. When we probe our team

Speaker 6

on that topic, which we do frequently, particularly

Speaker 2

in the home I think what we do frequently, particularly in the home center and at the retail paint stores where we sell product to, The feedback that we're getting is that the pipeline of inventory is in good shape. It pretty much matches up with the level of activity that they're seeing in the marketplace. I can't tell you that, That was the case a year ago. I think a year ago, it may have they may have still been playing a little bit of catch up in terms of trying to build up their inventory levels. And This year, the feedback that we're getting is that folks feel like things are in pretty good shape.

Speaker 2

You probably know that the home center has been challenging this year. Foot traffic is down. The big retailers have reacted to that. But again, I think that they've worked through any excess inventory that they may have had, as their foot traffic came down. I think we're in a good spot right now.

Speaker 7

Yes. This is David. I'd just like to volunteer that on the inventory side, you may know this, but others Maybe you're newer to the story, it's helpful to remind them when they read that other companies are talking about destocking and Channel working off excess inventories because they have more confidence in the supply chain. It really isn't a significant factor, Excess inventory in our businesses because our channel partners in industrial and in process really don't Stop much outside of the spare parts space. So through good times and bad and through periods of greater or lesser demand, We have and continue to have a high level of confidence that wholesale equals retail.

Speaker 7

And there is not an inventory overhang in those two segments, it gives us any degree of concern.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Saree Boroditsky with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Good morning. This is James on for Saree. Thanks for taking my questions today. And I wanted to talk about contractor margins. So the margins improved like kind of significantly year over year and quarter over quarter, Like despite lower revenue levels on a sequential basis.

Speaker 8

So can you please provide more color on the magnitude of benefit from price, Product cost and mix and also can you talk about the sustainability of the margin level? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. I don't think we are going to Be able to fine tune the different components there. But for sure, price has had a nice impact for CED. You Might remember a year ago when we were talking about all our input costs going through the roof and how contractor was really bearing most of that burden And things like electronic components that were very expensive and hard to get and you had to make special accommodations to Suppliers actually get parts in the door, that has really freed up. So a lot of that hyperinflation that was going on in some of the things that they purchased Has subsided.

Speaker 2

Our pricing actions that we took were really designed to offset the cost pressures that we had in the business And we're seeing that happen. So you're seeing margin rates kind of go back to more of a normal level, I would believe, in that business and what we had seen maybe over the last Couple of years, the team is doing a great job managing their expenses. They're not They understand the dynamics in the market right now are not as good as they were, the last couple of years. And I think that I'm pleased with how they're making sure they're keeping an eye on spending and not adding to our fixed cost base. We do have some Variable expenses in our P and L and contractor related to incentive payments that Last year, we're higher than they are this year.

Speaker 2

So there's a little bit of tailwind from that activity in addition to what you're seeing on the gross Margin line in that business. But overall, they're at 30% operating margins. I don't know if the business has ever been that high. I think in Q1, we might have touched that level. But as we work our way through the rest of the year, I think as Chris said in his comments, we really believe that those Rates of operating profitability are sustainable as long as we continue to run at the volumes that we're seeing, which we're pretty confident that we will.

Speaker 8

Got it. Thanks for the detailed color. That's very helpful. And staying with contractor, so can you kind of talk about how different end markets We think the contractor kind of played out in the quarter since one of your large customers talked about kind of solid commercial performance, while new resin remains pressures and have you seen any pressure or headwind from interest on the commercial side? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. So I mean, if you were to look at the business in CED, I mean, there's a ton of moving parts, right? We've got The propane side, we have the tradesman, high end DIY side of the business. We have spray foam. We have protective coatings.

Speaker 2

We have Line striping, we have stucco and texture, we have all kinds of different Segments within Contractors, so in any one of them, they might be up or they might be down. I would say that generally speaking, When you read all the headlines about how bad it is in the housing market and the uncertainty around all that, I feel pretty good about How our businesses performed this year. For sure, protective and marine, protective coatings, Spray foam, anything in what we call our high performance coatings and foam business has been good. The pro business has held in there better than what I think most people would have expected and the home center has been tough. So, when you get outside of North America and you start talking about Europe, I think the pro business has Held up pretty well on a year to date basis.

Speaker 2

And when you look over in Asia, I think it's really limited the weakness that we've seen has really been limited to China. And there's 2 things there. One is the container business where they put coatings onto containers, for they go onto ships for cargo. That business has dropped pretty significantly, so we're just not selling as much equipment there. I actually ran the business for a while, so you live through these periods where it's up and then it's down and kind of in a down period.

Speaker 2

And then in China, I was over there about a month ago And the construction market over there has really softened quite a bit. You would drive around the city and you'd see cranes, But you would see no activity at all around the cranes, which is vastly different than what it was when I was over there 4 years ago. Unfortunately,

Speaker 6

it had

Speaker 2

been that long because of the pandemic. But 4 years ago, you'd see cranes, but you'd see all kinds of stuff happening. So It's really not too surprising that our business has kind of played out the way that it has.

Speaker 8

Got it. Thank you. I will pass it on.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc, your line is open. Jeff Hammond, your line is open. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Matt Summerville with D. A.

Operator

Davidson. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Thanks. Good morning.

Speaker 7

Hi, Matt. Can you, Mark, how

Speaker 3

are you doing? Can you maybe help me kind of Square the comments you made just on the powder finishing business, Gemma, is you kind of talk about backlog being healthy, But projects may be pushing to the right adverse timing. Can you just provide a little bit more detail as to what you're seeing there?

Speaker 2

Yes, good question. So there's really at a really high level, there's kind of 2 big pieces to the game of business. 1 is our powder systems And the other are the equipment side, packages and guns and accessories and those types of things. And Well, we acquired a business, I don't know, half a dozen years or so ago, that really focuses on the powder systems side of the business and in particular they make conveyor systems for vertical line coatings. And these are Aluminum extruded materials that are used in a lot of different applications and those Extruded aluminum pieces get coated with powder coatings and they're a large user of GEMA equipment And their business has been softer than what we experienced over the last couple of years.

Speaker 2

So there's a little bit of volatility there in terms of the overall Results within the gamma powder business. I would say that the other side of the gamma business has been actually pretty good. Anything standard equipment, distributed product, parts and accessories is sort of mirroring what we See on the other side of the Graco industrial businesses, which are liquid finishing and sealants and adhesives. But the systems business can be kind of lumpy. And We still have some orders in the backlog that hopefully will ship between now and the end of the year, but it does create some a little bit of volatility on a quarterly basis.

Speaker 2

We do try to factor all this into our annual revenue guide outlook. And Knowing what we know about the backlog and what's going to ship out of powder for the rest of the year, we feel pretty confident that we're still going to be able to hit those numbers.

Speaker 7

Yes. Excuse me, this is David again. I would underline Mark's point about the call it the lumpiness of closure And sign off of systems Tends to be more active based on our history in Q4. So we're confident that we'll see a more elevated level in Q4. We don't have And there are complexities in a systems business that we don't see as primarily a component supplier in most of our businesses.

Speaker 7

And sometimes final sign off of our system is held up by factors not related to us, but related to the project, meaning The conveyor supplier or the robot supplier or the HVAC supplier hasn't gotten their work Fully fleshed out and completed yet and with the supply chain challenges of the last couple of years, frankly coupled with COVID too, Those are, I'd say, particularly sophisticated and complex logistical problems, especially in the markets in South America and in Asia and in Eastern Europe where a lot of the new powder systems are installed.

Speaker 3

Thanks. And then just as a follow-up, obviously, it's a little bit early, but I'm sure it's top of mind. Mark, how are you thinking about pricing as you go into 2024?

Speaker 2

Yes, I think it's going to be more of a normal year for us. We've tried to realize 1.5% to 2% pricing in a normal environment. Inflation is still running Hotter than it was a few years ago. So in terms of like the absolute level of price increase lift to lift, I think we're going to be Higher than what we would have been, let's say, in the 2018, 2019 timeframe. But Right now, we're thinking there'll be one price increase.

Speaker 2

We'll be doing it in January and it'll be more in line with what we've done historically.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks guys.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks Matt.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Larry De Maria at William Blair. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hi, thanks. Good morning, everybody. Hey, first question, if you mentioned semiconductors As an opportunity for kind of 2024, 2025. As we sit here today, are there some other big organic opportunities, go through segments For 24 specifically, because it sort of feels like a little bit of a sideways market as backlog comes down and we have these headwinds to contractors. In other words, it seems to be things looking sort of flattish as we look out to the right as these backlogs come down.

Speaker 6

So just trying to see if there's anything beside price On the organic side that could drive volume higher next year?

Speaker 2

Yes, it's a good question. I think I would turn to the products that we have in the portfolio and some of the things that we There's obviously big macro trends out there on the movement from air operated pumps to electric drive pumps. And I think we're capitalizing on that advantage. We got some products coming out in the next 12 months that I think we'll be Even more able to capitalize on that opportunity. The alternative energy space is still pretty hot.

Speaker 2

There's a lot going on in battery manufacturing. We're heavily involved with that. Solar panels are going up all over the place. And obviously, we're making equipment and Fine tuning our portfolio of products that we offer in that particular space. So all in all, There are nice new products coming out within the portfolio, which are going to help us hopefully offset any kind of macro Sluggishness, I'll call it, that people are expecting in 2024.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you. And then second, just two quick questions here. You bought back some stock, sounds like you're doing some more. Is there a target number to think about here for share repurchases for the full year?

Speaker 6

And also can you give us and maybe I apologize if I missed it, but what was price and volume in the quarter specifically?

Speaker 2

Yes. So I think that we disclosed that. We will disclose that in terms of the absolute levels that we've purchased. I think Chris gave that information. What we try to do here when we evaluate when to buy stock and how much to buy is we really run Kind of cash flow analysis on Graco and we treat it like any other capital project that we might consider within the company.

Speaker 2

And long story short, we come up with a number, we look at the market cap of the company and the overall valuation And to the extent that we feel like there's a mismatch there, we are active in the market and of course we become more active in the market when we think that mismatch Is broader. Historically, I think our approach has worked extremely well. The last number that I saw that I think David Shared with me is that over the last dozen or so years, our own IRR on stock buybacks is somewhere around 13% or 14%, which I feel really good about. So here in this quarter, obviously, there's been some weakness in the stock. We've Got involved with it and we'll continue to be opportunistic as the year goes on.

Speaker 7

Yes. And I think that's the that really remains the key. The key word is opportunistic. And the way Mark described the discounted cash flowROI Process we go through really is the way we do it. And while I may not necessarily think of Graco as a classic cyclical.

Speaker 7

We serve cyclical markets and so the street tends to think of us that way. And because of that, there will be opportunities from time to time to be more aggressive. And I think it's something we keep in mind because when times are dark Like they were in 'nine and briefly in 'fifteen and certainly in 'twenty, we were positioned strongly to move aggressively and take advantage of those short term discrepancies That seem to appear every so often.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you very much. Good luck. And if you have the price volume number, that would be helpful. Good luck.

Speaker 6

Thank

Operator

you. Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open. Hello, Jeff, if you're on mute, please unmute yourself. If there are no further questions, I will now turn the conference over to Mark Sheehan.

Speaker 2

Okay. Well, again, I want to thank everyone for today's call and thank you for your loyalty and continued interest in Graco. Have a great day.

Operator

This concludes our conference for today. Thank you for participating and have a nice day. All parties may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Graco Q3 2023
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