Prosperity Bancshares Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 25, 2023

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Followed by Asylbek Osmanov, who will review some of our recent financial statistics and Tim Timanus, who will discuss our lending activities, including asset quality. Finally, we will open the call for questions. Before we begin, let me make the usual disclaimers. Certain of the matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward looking statements for purposes of the federal securities laws and as such may involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause the actual results or performance of Prosperity Bancshares to be materially different from future results or performance expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to be materially different than those in the forward looking statements can be found in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including Forms 10 ks in 10 Q and other reports and statements we have filed with the SEC.

Operator

All forward looking statements are roughly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. Now let me turn the call over to David Zalman.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Charlotte, and good morning to everyone. I would like to welcome and thank everyone listening to our Q3 2023 conference call. I'm pleased to announce that the Board of Directors approved raising the Q4 2023 dividend to $0.56 per share from $0.55 per share that was paid in the prior 4 quarters. The increase reflects the continued confidence the Board has in our company and our markets. The compounded annual growth rate in dividends declared from 2,003 to 2023 was 11.5%.

Speaker 1

We continue to share our success with our shareholders through the payment of dividends and opportunistic stock repurchases, while also continuing to grow our capital. Our tangible capital increased $243,000,000 from September 30, 2022 to September 30, 2023. This is the amount Prosperity retained after paying $203,000,000 in dividends and repurchasing $72,000,000 of our common stock during this period, reflecting Prosperity's stable earnings. Prosperity reported net income of $112,000,000 for the quarter ended September 30, 2023 compared with $135,000,000 for the same period in 2022. Our net income per diluted common share was $1.20 for the quarter ended September 30, $20.23 compared with $1.49 for the same period in 2022.

Speaker 1

Prosperity's earnings were primarily impacted by a lower than normal net interest margin. Although our net interest margin is lower than we would like, the good news is that based on our models, we show our net interest margin improving in a 12 month 24 month time period to our more normal levels as our assets reprice to market rates. However, if rates increase more than we anticipate, this could change. The net interest margin on a tax Equivalent basis was 2.72 percent for the 3 months ended September 30, 2023, stable when compared with 2.73 for the 3 months ended June 30, 2023. Prosperity continues to exhibit solid operating metrics with annualized returns on tangible equity at 12.58% and our assets of 1.13% for the Q3 of 2023.

Speaker 1

Our loans were $21,400,000,000 on September 30, 2023, a decrease of $221,000,000 or 1% from the $21,700,000,000 at June 30, 2023. Our loans increased dollars 2,900,000,000 or 15.8 percent compared with $18,500,000,000 on September 30, 2022. Excluding the loans acquired in the First Capital acquisition And new production by the acquired lending operation since May 1, 2023 and the warehouse purchase program loans, Loans on September 30, 2023 grew $111,000,000 or 2.3 percent annualized compared with June 30, 2023 and grew $1,400,000,000 were 8.2% compared with September 30, 2022. Interest rates have continued to increase and there are signs of the economy slowing and loan growth moderating as intended by the Federal Reserve's actions. Deposits were $27,300,000,000 on September 30, 2023, a decrease of $68,000,000 or 2 basis points compared with $27,400,000,000 on June 30, 2023.

Speaker 1

Deposits decreased $2,000,000,000 or 6.8 percent compared with $29,300,000,000 on September 30, 2022, primarily due to a decrease in business deposits and public fund deposits, partially offset by an increase in merger acquired deposits. After a more challenging time in the Q1 of the year due to large bank failures outside of Prosperity's markets, Our deposits stabilized during the Q3. Total deposits excluding public funds increased $260,000,000 during the quarter. Importantly, this was achieved without the purchase of any broker deposits. Our non interest bearing deposits represented a strong 37.6 percent of total deposits.

Speaker 1

Our non performing assets totaled $69,000,000 or 20 basis points of quarterly average interest earning assets on September 30, 2023, compared with $62,000,000 or 18 basis points of quarterly average interest earning assets on June 30, 2023, and 19,900,000 our 6 basis points of quarterly average interest earning assets on September 30, 2022. The increase during 2023 was primarily due to the merger and an increase in other real estate. Our asset quality remains sound and the allowance for credit losses on loans and off balance sheet credit exposure was 388,000,000 on September 30, 2023. As mentioned in our last conference call, the accounting for acquired loans has changed. Under the new accounting rules, the full loan balance of each acquired loan is booked at closing and reserve as needed is set aside.

Speaker 1

Our non performing assets include approximately $23,700,000 from the First Capital acquisition. The bank appropriately reserved for these loans at closing based on day 1 accounting. However, We are now doing a deeper dive into the collateral values and liquidation alternatives for these loans. If appropriate, charge downs to the allowance for credit losses may occur in the next several quarters. Again, these loans are fully reserved for: Our acquisition of Lonestar Bancshares is pending the receipt of regulatory approvals.

Speaker 1

We are committed to the transaction and continue to work together with Lone Star in anticipation

Speaker 2

of the closing. The

Speaker 1

parties have extended the termination date in the merger agreement to March 31, 2024 and are prepared to complete the transaction as soon as possible following receipt of regulatory approval. Our operational conversion date is set for Q2 2024. We continue to have conversations with bankers considering opportunities. We believe that higher technology costs, Salary increases, loan competition, funding costs, succession planning concerns and increased regulatory burden all point to continued consolidation. The Texas and Oklahoma Economies continue to benefit from companies relocating from States with higher taxes and more regulation.

Speaker 1

This combined with people moving to the states requires additional housing and infrastructure, a driver for loans and increased business opportunities. Although there are signs of the economy slowing and loan growth moderating, I believe our bank is located in 2 of the best states we can be for future growth and continued prosperity. Thanks again for your support of our company. Let me turn over our discussion to Asselbek Osmanov, our Chief Financial Officer, to discuss some of the specific financial results we achieved. Asselbeck?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Mr. Zalman. Good morning, everyone. Net interest income before provision for credit losses for the 3 months ended September 30, 2023 was $239,500,000 compared to $236,500,000 for the quarter ended June 30, 2023, an increase of $3,100,000 or 1.3 percent and compared to $260,700,000 for the same period in 2022, a decrease of $21,200,000 or 8.1 percent. The net interest margin on a tax equivalent basis was 2.72% for the 3 months ended September 30, 2023 compared to 2.73% for the quarter ended June 30, 2023 and 3.11 percent for the same period in 2022.

Speaker 3

Excluding purchase accounting adjustments, The net interest margin for the 3 months ended September 30, 2023 was 2.68% compared to 2.7% for the quarter ended June 30, 2023 and 3.1% for the same period in 2022. Period end borrowings decreased $550,000,000 during the Q3 2023, primarily funded by cash flows from the bond portfolio. Non interest income was $38,700,000 for the 3 months ended September 30, 2023 compared to $39,700,000 for the quarter ended June 30, 2023 and $34,700,000 for the same period in 2022. Non interest expense for the 3 months ended September 30, 2023 was $135,700,000 compared to 145 $900,000 for the quarter ended June 30, 2023 $122,200,000 for the same period in 2022. The linked quarter decrease was primarily due to the merger related expenses in the 2nd quarter related to the First Capital Bank acquisition.

Speaker 3

For the Q4 2023, we expect non interest expense to be in the range of $134,000,000 to $136,000,000 The efficiency ratio was 48.7% for the 3 months ended September 30, 2023 compared to 53.2% for the quarter ended June 30, 2023 41.4% for the same period in 2022. The bond portfolio metrics at ninethirtytwenty 23 showed a weighted average life of 5.2 years and projected annual cash flows of approximately $2,100,000,000 And with that, let me turn over the presentation to Tim Timanus for some details on loans and asset quality. Thank you, Asselbeck.

Speaker 4

Our non performing assets at quarter end September 30, 2023 totaled $69,481,000 or 32 basis points of loans and other real estate compared to $62,727,000 or 29 basis points at June 30, 2023. This represents a $6,754,000 increase. The September 30, 2023 Non performing asset total was comprised of $60,126,000

Speaker 2

in loans,

Speaker 4

$35,000 in repossessed assets $9,320,000 in other real estate. Net Charge offs for the 3 months ended September 30, 2023 were $3,408,000 compared to net charge offs of $16,000,000 $65,000 for the quarter ended June 30, 2023. This is a 79% decline on a linked quarter basis. There was no addition to the allowance for credit losses during the quarter ended September 30, 2023 compared to an $18,540,000 addition to the allowance during the quarter ended June 30, 2023 that resulted from the acquisition of First Capital Bank of Texas. No dollars were taken into income from the allowance during the quarter ended September 30, 2023.

Speaker 4

The average monthly new loan production for the quarter ended September 30, 2023 was $398,000,000 compared to $565,000,000 for the quarter ended June 30, 2023. Loans outstanding at September 30, 2023 were approximately $21,433,000,000 compared to 21.65 $4,000,000,000 at June 30, 2023. This is a 1% decrease on a linked quarter basis. The September 30, 2023 loan total is made up of 42% fixed rate loans, 27% floating rate loans and 31% variable rate loans. I will now turn it over to Charlotte Rasche.

Operator

Thank you, Tim. At this time, we are prepared to answer your questions. Our call operator, MJ, will help us with questions.

Speaker 5

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Today's first question comes from Brady Gailey with KBW. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Good morning.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Brady.

Speaker 6

I know in the past we've talked about the dynamic Of the asset repricing pushing the net interest margin higher. I think previously you talked about a 3% Margin within a year and like a 3.30 to 3.40 margin within a couple of years. Is that still the right way to frame The amount of NIM upside you're seeing going forward?

Speaker 1

Every time I answer that question, Brady, I get looks in the room for my General Counsel that I'm supposed to be cautious on this all the time, but the answer is yes. I mean our numbers are still showing again we're showing We feel like we've kind of bottomed out where we're at. We feel there will be a decent increase in 6 months, 12 months and 24 months based on some of the numbers you just mentioned. And that's in our models, we just ran our models again as of ninethirtytwenty 3 and we're still showing that right now.

Speaker 6

Okay. And you could get there tomorrow if you restructured the bond book that's such a big Opportunity and you guys clearly have the excess capital to consider doing something like that. I know it's gotten more costly Just with the tick up in rates that we've seen, but it also would be more EPS accretive if you pull the trigger. So maybe just updated thoughts on How you're thinking about a possible bond restructuring or just a partial bond restructuring?

Speaker 1

Well, we've looked at it. I mean, again, you either hold the bonds for 3 years and you get your money back or you Sell them right now and take your loss and you get your money back through an accounting accretion. But to me that's just kind of voodoo accounting really. It would take our earnings from where we're at next year at $500,000,000 to maybe $600,000,000 and something $1,000,000 or $650,000,000 I mean It would just propel the earnings, but again those earnings would be propelled primarily from accretion numbers. And more so than that, Under accounting, you have to put your bonds either in available for sale or HTN.

Speaker 1

And Since this bank has began, we again, just because we were such an acquisitive bank, we always had to watch our capital. And so we never could take the chances when we didn't have that much capital to have a lot of big changes in our capital Counsel, we pretty much put probably 90% plus of all of our securities in HTM. So you really couldn't do it from an accounting standpoint. And if you did do it, once you did it, it would change everything. You couldn't go back to the HTM.

Speaker 1

So you must say that right? That's correct.

Speaker 3

And I can just add to his question. Ray, you said partially no, if you have to take the whole portfolio, you have to do the 100%. So the decision would Do you want to take the whole portfolio or not? And I think at that point, with the duration being short and we can get all the cash within 3, 4 years, We determined just leave it and let it reprice and use the cash flows for paying off our

Speaker 7

borrowing. Yes.

Speaker 6

Okay. And then finally for me, just a quick one on the provision. I mean, it looks like you booked About $3,000,000 of net charge offs. You built reserve by about $6,000,000 So I would have thought the provision would have been like $9,000,000 or $10,000,000 but it's 0. So there must be something going on there?

Speaker 3

Yes. On the provision Brady, we did put additional about $10,000,000 for SCB. As we mentioned in our comments earlier, we'll kind of dive in a little bit and we had to put additional $10,000,000 that's related to TB, but the charge off of $3,000,000 was some of them were related to overdraft and loans. So it's only $3,000,000

Speaker 1

I think it's crazy amount of a lot of times it goes through that category, but Probably a majority of lot of that times it's just overdrafts and stuff like that.

Speaker 3

Combination of overdrafting loans, yes. And $3,000,000 being not material, we determined we don't need to provision anything this And then our model shows that we appropriately have allowance balance.

Speaker 1

We have $388,000,000 in allowance Credit losses in $60,000,000 in non performing such they were covered pretty good probably.

Speaker 6

That's pretty strong.

Speaker 2

All right, Greg. Thanks for the color guys.

Speaker 1

I'm going to say that a lot of that money, I mean, some of that money was First Capital reserves. I mean, we put, I don't know the exact numbers at $85,000,000 or so in reserves for First Capital.

Speaker 3

Including that, yes, everything is about $95,000,000

Speaker 1

$95,000,000 Yes, including I'm following up. No matter how you look at it, dollars 388,000,000 even if we decided to charge off, not charge off, but relook at some of those things, I think you $388,000,000 $60,000,000 still a very strong position.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 5

The next question comes from Dave Rochester with Compass Point. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning. Nice quarter.

Speaker 1

Good morning, Dave. Good morning, Dave. Good morning.

Speaker 7

Appreciated the update on the longer term NIM outlook and it's good to hear the NIM has bottomed here and that makes sense just given the repricing opportunity you guys have in the asset side. What are you guys expecting at this point for NIM more near term? Any way to put some parameters around that expansion That you're expecting here in 4Q and into next year?

Speaker 3

Yes. If you look at them, I would say for the Q4, we have probably moderate increase. As we based on what we look at our balance sheet, we see Q3 we believe is bottomed on the NIM perspective. So now we're going to as we continue optimize our balance sheet from the standpoint we're using our bond portfolio cash flow to pay off Higher borrowing. As you saw, we paid off $550,000,000 right now in the Q3.

Speaker 3

So we'll continue to do that optimization of balance sheet that will be NIM accretive for us. And as we continue to grow the loans that will reprice over time, That should help us from that standpoint. So I would say moderate increase in the Q4 with the although what I described right now with balance sheet optimization.

Speaker 7

Yes. And then 4Q is normally a pretty good quarter for deposit growth, right? I mean, it's you normally see some seasonal strength there that should help pay down some more of those borrowings potentially?

Speaker 3

It will. So we usually see the public fund growing in the 4th quarter as because of the tax payment. It's usually end of the 4th Quarter like in the end of December January, but I think more the impact we'll see in the Q1. And what we're also seeing that public funds, they Probably not keep their deposit as longer they used to be because they're moving to some tax pool or other areas, but we'll see the benefit of it in the 4th But I don't know how much of a significance we'll see. But we usually see about $400,000,000 to $500,000,000 deposit increase due to tax collections from the public funds.

Speaker 1

But again, just cautionary, they left that money with us a lot of times, but now that they can get 5% to 6%, They may move it quicker too.

Speaker 3

I agree. I think the timing of keeping is probably very short. They'll be once they collect, they'll be moving out to the higher yielding export.

Speaker 7

That expansion you're talking about in 4Q isn't dependent on that kind of growth, it sounds like. That's more from the asset repricing and stabilization of the core deposit side.

Speaker 3

That's correct. Especially what we said, in one portfolio, we have $2,500,000,000 or $2,100,000,000 cash flow with paying off our And if you look at our loan portfolio, we have about $5,000,000,000 of cash flow from the loan portfolio that's going to reprice. But you have to keep in mind on the loan portfolio that out of $5,000,000,000 about 65% is fixed to variable Loans that probably at 5% and 5.5% yielding. So they're going to replace the 8% and 8.5% right now. And but the 35 Already floating, so we're not going to get a benefit out of that.

Speaker 3

But yes, based on what we see and we see modest increase in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 7

Great. And you're saying new loan yields are still in that 8% to 8.5% range?

Speaker 3

That's what we're seeing it.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. Maybe just one more on capital. You're just about back to 50% CET1 right now. I was wondering what your thoughts were on the buyback here with the stock near 50. It seems like you've got a lot of excess capital here that you can deploy.

Speaker 7

I know some of that will go to the deal closing coming up, but 15% gives you a lot of flexibility there. So just wanted to get your

Speaker 1

updated thoughts. We do have a lot of capital. I know a lot of people's Questioning why we're not doing more. At the same time, there's a lot going on. I think that, again, I've always said that we like to use our capital for primarily mergers and acquisitions and also increasing dividends.

Speaker 1

At the same time, we truly are building You can see that even if not one of our best years, we still retained quite a bit even after dividends and share repurchases. But one thing that we're looking at right now is with the regulatory agencies Looking on what their new requirements are, we've been hesitant. I mean, right now, would be like you mentioned, it couldn't be a better Time that'd be buying our stock, at least in my opinion. This is one of the cheapest things I've ever seen trading under 10 times next year's earnings. So It would be a time.

Speaker 1

I think right now we're just we're really trying to see from a regulatory standpoint what they're going to what their new requirements are going to be, how they're going to consider Losses in the bond portfolio, they consider that part of your capital, not part of your capital. However, ours is in HTM right now. It doesn't seem like it's on the block for any change on that. It does look like if you have your bonds available for sale, is going to be part of your capital calculation. At least right now, things could change.

Speaker 1

But we're just waiting to see that. And we do think there's going to be a number of opportunities out there right now with just with this everything happening. So having excess funds is not a bad place to be. It's a high class problem right now.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. Agree. Thanks guys.

Speaker 5

The next question comes from Michael Rose with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, thanks for taking my questions. A lot have been asked and answered, but Kevin, while I have you on here, could you just comment on the warehouse? Your guidance last quarter was pretty much spot on and just wanted to see how your crystal ball is looking As we think about that business

Speaker 6

over the next couple

Speaker 2

of quarters. I think 90 days ago, we said we'd probably average about $950,000,000 We did just a shave better than that. Michael, through last night, the average is down from that 9.72 for the quarter, it's down to 8.16. So it's dropped off pretty significantly. We closed yesterday at $740,000,000 almost exactly out in the warehouse.

Speaker 2

So I think for the quarter, not unlike too unlike last year's 4th and 1st quarter, We're probably looking more in the neighborhood of $725,000,000 on average. So any And a shortfall we would have gotten out of the public funds in terms of excess liquidity coming into the Q4. We're going to have a couple of 100,000,000 here Come off the warehouse that we'll use. If there's loan production, we'll go to loan production. If there's not, we'll go to pay down The Federal Home Loan Bank borrowing.

Speaker 2

So it will be down. We've got some uses for it.

Speaker 9

Helpful. And then maybe just on the production, you guys have had pretty decent growth this year. I think some of the dislocations In your Texas markets, especially for some of your competitors, but it seems like some of those competitors are starting to get a little bit more aggressive on growth and just wanted To see where that leaves you guys and should we consider

Speaker 10

kind of

Speaker 9

a mid single digit growth rate for next year kind of what you've guided to for this year? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think, Michael, I would tell you low to mid and off from what I said was mid last quarter. And that just by recapping, part of that is our decision to sell mortgages rather than to portfolio them. And that's brought us into that mid range. We've seen some relatively weaker loan demand, I'd say, over the last month or so.

Speaker 2

And there's a lot of things that don't pencil out real well at these rates or take so much equity into a deal. It's just harder to get deals done. So, look, if it's on the lower side, that will be more money that can be used to pay down The borrowings and if it's on the mid side that would be great. So I'm just looking forward, I'd say low to mid. And a lot of it has, Kevin, don't you

Speaker 1

think? When we were just flush with deposits, we were looking at all kinds of loans, whether people She didn't have relationships with us and now with deposits not being in the banks and everybody is trying to reduce their borrowings, We ourselves kind of restricted loans a lot because some loans that we would normally have made 6 months ago, We won't we don't make today because we're not getting a complete deposit relationship. So some of this is by our own making too. So I guess We were at one end of the spectrum, we went to another end of the spectrum and I guess it depends where we finally how the dust settles, where we all end

Speaker 2

There's a lot of pluses and minuses, right? There's a lot of people really restricted, not they basically have shut down, which you think creates opportunity. And I think we're in that period where the market's adjusting and borrowers are getting used to having a pay up And our requirements of, hey, while you might have done this historically with bank XYZ, if you're coming here, you need to move your Deposits from XYZ to us or we're not interested. So we're going through that adjustment period as we speak. And if people are willing to pay up and move us deposits, we'll be there for them.

Speaker 2

But

Speaker 1

I guess, yes, like one of the lenders Came to us and said that one of the deals that they're in, 2 or 3 of the banks that are participating in their line of credit Are not willing to participate anymore and ask if we would participate. And I asked what the rate was and it was still I think sulfur plus anyway the total rate was about 7.5%. And this guy has always wanted to good customers, always wanted to do business with But we've always been about a half a point short. So the lender asked, said we'd really like to come back and like us to do it. And he says, you're always about a half a point higher than us.

Speaker 1

Well, we still are. So if they if we do see the pricing where it becomes better and that we may take more risk also I think at the same time.

Speaker 9

Totally got it. Great color. And then maybe just one final one me, David, you threw out a lot of potential drivers for M and A as we move forward. Just broadly speaking, how do you think this all plays out? And then if you could just give us kind of a quick update on the Lone Star And maybe what's holding it up.

Speaker 9

I know you talked about it last quarter. I just want to see if anything has changed. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Well, I was hoping that some of the FDIC I see people were on the line, maybe they could answer that about the approval on Lonestar. But we are still working with the regulators to get approval on the Lonestar deal. I'm hoping it's just times all I can say is times are a lot different than when they were a year ago, but We're still completely committed to it. We're trying to get it done. And hopefully, we can get that thing done and approved.

Speaker 1

Hopefully, there will be some more opportunities out there that we're We'd like to move forward with those also.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 5

The next question comes from Peter Winter with D. A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Thank you. Tim, I just want to go back to the comment about selling resi mortgages. You had talked about that Last quarter, but resi mortgage was a pretty strong quarter for loan growth this quarter. And I'm just wondering is That kind of happened towards the end of the quarter and it will accelerate from here in terms of originate and sell?

Speaker 4

I think a lot of that growth that you're seeing was already in the pipeline. It's not unusual to take 16 to 90 days From the date of application, getting the loan actually closed and funded. So a lot of what you've seen for this quarter was really a carryover from the prior quarter And I think you'll see more moderation going forward, if that makes sense.

Speaker 11

Yes. No, it does. Thank you. And then can I just ask about what you're seeing in terms of credit quality within commercial real estate, particularly Multifamily and office? There's been a number of articles talking about office pressure, particularly in the Texas market.

Speaker 4

We have seen very few problems up to this point in time, really almost none. And I think there are a few obvious reasons for that. If you take office first, We typically have done owner occupied as opposed to non owner occupied. And the projects that we've been involved in have been reasonably small, 2 to 3 story type facilities. So we're really not in the large non owner occupied office market, Really never have been.

Speaker 4

So that has insulated us somewhat from the problems that you've referred to In office. And in terms of multifamily, we've always tried to be very careful, obviously with any loan, But certainly with multifamily and I think our way of weeding through those opportunities and Checking them out has benefited us. So far, the developers that we've done business We have got pretty decent projects and are holding their own. There continues to be growth in our markets In terms of population, so that certainly hasn't hurt the multifamily piece of it. So I think it's stable right now.

Speaker 4

And I don't see any reason to think that that's going to change overnight. Obviously, from a macro standpoint, out there in the world, so to speak, there are a lot of disconcerting things. But most of those really don't directly affect the markets that we're in, in Texas and Oklahoma. And we just don't see a big change in that anytime soon. So we think it's pretty stable going forward.

Speaker 11

Okay, great. And then one last question, just credit obviously is very strong. You have Nice reserve coverage to non performing loans. But is there how much longer can you take a 0 provision expense do you think?

Speaker 4

Well, I'll make a quick comment. A lot of that reserve is based on what we call environmental factors. And I mentioned it just a minute ago and what I was saying, there is some weakness That's out there in the world. And there are some things to be concerned about. And do those End up affecting us more than they have today?

Speaker 4

Who knows? But that possibility is there. You asked about and I mentioned the office market. It's a pretty good example. If you look at the statistics, They're not good.

Speaker 4

And does that tend to creep into other segments? We don't know. But we're trying to be prepared for the future in a reasonable way. And we think That per our models and all of our calculations, we think where we are right now on the reserve is appropriate And I wouldn't see any significant change anytime real soon on that. So we're not expecting to take money out of the reserve.

Speaker 4

We don't see any huge additions to the reserve either based on what we see right now. So I think we feel comfortable with where we are and we think it's Steady as it goes for a little while.

Speaker 1

I think most banks Peter probably there's not many banks probably carrying a rebound reserve Like us at 1.7% reserve and compared to the losses that we've had historically. So I think when Tim is referring a lot to the environmental There's probably a big piece and there is a larger piece in our reserves for the environmental So, where a number of banks a year or 2 ago were pulling money out of the reserve and putting back into income, we never did that. We've left that money. So we really don't like to play with that taking money in, putting money out at different times. We'd like to be pretty consistent.

Speaker 1

So we do feel we're well reserved and we shouldn't I don't see putting money in unless something Drop the cap as I don't see us putting money in for the next 12 months such as me.

Speaker 10

Okay, great. Thanks, David.

Speaker 5

The next question comes from Brandon King with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hey, good morning.

Speaker 7

Good morning. Good morning.

Speaker 10

So industry is Experiencing a softer revenue growth outlook next year, although not as much the case for Prosperity. But just wanted to get your thoughts on How are you thinking about expense growth next year? I know a lot of other banks are now seeing initiatives and restructurings, but just want to get a sense of what you're thinking About how you want to manage expenses going forward?

Speaker 3

So Brendan, in the short term, I'll talk about the Q4. I think it's going to be in line what We had in the Q3, as I mentioned, it's $134,000,000 to $136,000,000 But if you go out for 2024, I think with the inflationary We are right now and we do our merit increases annually. So I would expect for next year probably 2% to 3% Expense growth, but we have a lot of initiative. We're trying to automate few things, but nothing significant that would but we're trying to mitigate the cost. But If I had to get guidance for next year, that would be 2% to 3% increase, but that's not including the special FDIC assessment that's going to come in, in the 1st quarter that's excluding that special assessment.

Speaker 3

So I would say 2% to 3%.

Speaker 1

And how much is that FDIC?

Speaker 3

I think based on our initial calculations, it's about going to be $10,000,000 annually. $10,000,000 annually. Yes. On the special FDIs assessment. In addition that we already had assessment in 20 $3,000,000 which is costing another $10,000,000

Speaker 1

So really you're talking about an extra $2,500,000 or so a quarter?

Speaker 3

Yes, dollars 2,000,000 to $2,500,000 That's on the EBITDA assessment.

Speaker 10

Okay. That's very helpful. And then lastly for me, I'm sorry if I missed it already, but what are you expecting for security cash flows and maturities over the next 12 months?

Speaker 3

So our cash flow, it's about $2,100,000,000 Next 12

Speaker 1

months? That's on the

Speaker 4

securities. On the securities.

Speaker 1

On the loans.

Speaker 3

I'm sorry, on the loans, it's about 5,000,000,000

Speaker 1

Again, some portion of that

Speaker 3

Okay, sounds good. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 5

The next question comes from Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Can you give us some more detail on the fixed rate loan repricing dynamics So you're expecting from ER. I know you mentioned 65% is fixed to variable rate loans, repricing about 3 ish percentage points higher. But how much of the loans are in dollars or in percentage are set to repay between Now and the end of next year.

Speaker 12

And how does the increase in duration as a result of Higher long end rates impact that repricing dynamic?

Speaker 3

So then when we looked at the $5,000,000,000 that is Including all the duration we have already in our loan portfolio. And from the cash flow, I would say Maybe a little bit higher in the first half and second half, but essentially the cash flow would be evenly. If you look back in the I would just give you numbers what happened last three quarters and maybe that gives you some information Manan. It's like in the Q1, we had $1,300,000,000 in Q2, we had $1,500,000,000 and in Q3, we had $1,400,000,000 So based on that cash flow, you can see that the actual cash flows, you can see that that's going to be on the evenly distributed over 12 months.

Speaker 12

And that's loans repricing about 3 percentage points higher?

Speaker 3

On the fixed and variable loans, that's out of that 65% out of 5,000,000,000 That's they have the repricing by additional 3%, but floating is floating. So it's at that market rate. Yes, it's already repriced.

Speaker 12

Sorry, I meant the numbers you gave for the last three quarters were all of those repricing 3 percentage points higher or was it Only half of that or can you help us think through that?

Speaker 3

I think that's the same percentages. 65%

Speaker 2

Of that $1,400,000,000 $1,500,000,000 is fixed or variable that is repricing higher. The other 35% Floating. It's floating.

Speaker 3

So the composition is very similar to that, what we had experienced cash flows and what we expect.

Speaker 12

Got it. And as we think through your model for NIM to improve over a 6, 12 and 24 month timeframe. How much of that improvement is coming from the securities Maturing and pay downs in high cost funding versus repricing in loans?

Speaker 3

I would say this, our model that we disclosed that's a fixed balance sheet.

Speaker 1

Static, yes.

Speaker 3

Static balance sheet what we have That's getting we have $2,100,000,000 on the bond portfolio and $5,000,000,000 on the loans. So and that's may also just make sure that model assumes that deposit static stays flat and there is no significant repricing in The bond I'm sorry, in the deposit cost. But with the competition and all that, you don't know where we're going to be, but that's our model. That's a variable we use.

Speaker 1

I mean basically what we're saying is everything static, the amount of money in Federal Home Loan Bank, amount of loans, amount of deposits, This is just re pricing and duration changes that bring this net interest margin up.

Speaker 3

That's correct.

Speaker 12

Got it. That's very helpful. And if I could just get a clarification, I think in the prepared comments, you mentioned that if rates increase more than you anticipate, That NIM trajectory could change. Does that mean that if rates are higher than you anticipate, then The NIM would be higher because of the repricing dynamic or would it imply it would be lower either because of duration and because of deposit repricing?

Speaker 3

I mean, our balance sheet, we are pretty neutral on that standpoint. So if longer the rate stays higher, it's benefit for us because it's longer time for our Asset to reprice. And but on the deposit, I think we assumed what we have right now with a little bit just Repricing of maturity CDs, but other than that, we don't have any additional increases in the deposits.

Speaker 1

I can make an overall statement that higher rates or lower rates, we still have The 3 it's still significant increase in net margin where it does affect you, at least what I'm looking at in the model is more in the short term on the 6 12 month Time horizons. So if you look at a 12 month, you actually might do better. You might do better Interest down 100 than you are if they stay the same. On the other hand, over 24 months, we still do better. Interest rates going up or down, 300 basis points.

Speaker 1

I know it gets kind of complicated, but

Speaker 3

Yes, it is. I mean if Fed cuts the rates tomorrow, it will benefit because Our overnight borrowing is going to be repriced lower.

Speaker 1

We actually do better. It looks like if they do cut if interest rates went down 100 basis points, we actually do better,

Speaker 4

a little bit better.

Speaker 1

It's very helpful. Not much. It's very helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 5

The next question comes from Bill Karkash with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. As the debate continues around how long the Fed We'll keep rates higher for longer. Do you think you have a good handle on which of your customers put on swaps a couple, say, 2 to 3 years ago when We were still under ZERP and have so far been isolated from the impact of higher rates. Or your customers not using swaps?

Speaker 13

Just curious how you're thinking about that sort of interest rate reset risk across your commercial customer base?

Speaker 2

Yes, this is Kevin. We don't have a ton of swaps on the books. In the early days when people were talking about swaps, we offered them A fixed rate just straight out for 5 years or 7 years and we can question the wisdom of that. Those are our repricing opportunities today. So the amount of swaps we have in the book is pretty negligible.

Speaker 2

Most of the client base we have is Generally, in our opinion, not sophisticated enough for swaps. We tend to do a smaller middle market clients where you're educating them on swaps. The ones we have are larger companies, but there's just not a we don't have a lot of swaps on the books.

Speaker 1

There's really, I mean, you have some smaller ones, but most of our Lobs are in the middle market lending really our larger customer.

Speaker 2

Larger middle market clientele, but it's notionally it's a couple of $100,000,000

Speaker 4

I think it's actually lower than that now. Yes. Yes. I think it's

Speaker 2

You're right. One of them is recently paid off.

Speaker 4

Yes. I think it's down below $100,000,000 now. Yes. So So it's pretty

Speaker 13

nominal. Okay, understood. That's really helpful. And then following up on your the comments that you made around the deposit base, Maybe if you could just speak to whether you see any risk that maybe terminal beta expectations could have to Drift a little bit higher next year if rates were to hold just at these current levels?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think you have to look at what the competition doing. I think that's the main driver. I mean, if you stay Right for longer, it might impact it. But what we've seen last I'll look at last few quarters, we had a if you just look at cost of our deposit Has increased in the Q1 because of the rate environment.

Speaker 3

We had significant increase in the second quarter On our cost deposits. But in the Q3, we actually saw the increase being less than what we had in the Q2. So I think that we're optimistic that You know the increase in the deposit is going to slow down, then we go further because I think everyone who They always took opportunity to reprice them. There is we believe it's going to slow down a little bit on the increase on the deposit level of increase going forward. I completely agree with

Speaker 2

what Aspect said. I said, if we use history as a guide, once the Fed pauses, it's not atypical For basis to continue to rise, but it vastly reduced rates. And they may rise for up to 6 months Post pause, again at nominal levels, but it's not an immediate Freeze when the pet product launches.

Speaker 13

Got it. That's helpful. And then lastly,

Speaker 2

Just one last point, we have a really unlike a lot of banks of our size, we have a really pretty significant, I would call smaller town retail deposits that seem to be a lot less sensitive to rates.

Speaker 13

Understood. Yes, that makes a lot of sense. Finally, if I could squeeze in one last one. We've heard other banks talk about how Positive operating leverage is going to be difficult to achieve next year. Maybe if you could just help us understand how you're thinking about Positive operating leverage as you look to the new year given all the moving parts?

Speaker 1

What do you mean by positive Brady Leverage.

Speaker 13

By the ability to grow your revenues faster than your expenses and effectively manage expenses for the revenue environment. So Potentially cut expenses if revenues were to slower or have a little bit more room To invest if revenue growth was stronger, just the idea of managing expenses so that revenue growth outpaces expense growth.

Speaker 1

I think that's the beauty of our whole bank. I mean, that's the whole story where everybody else is there almost maxed out because their rates Have already taken advantage of higher rates. We're just going to hit it. We will just be going into our stride. So even though we'll have higher expenses And we probably manage expenses better than anybody and we will continue to do that.

Speaker 1

But the beauty of this whole bank really As if the models work and everything goes where everybody else is going to have that challenge, we should be doing much better.

Speaker 2

Yes. We're expecting some positive operating leverage. Our Efficiency ratio because of the NIM declines largely have gone from 42% to 48%. As NIM returns and NII improves because of it. Our efficiency ratio is going to drop back down to Our normal level is low 40s where we normally play in probably.

Speaker 2

And that's just that's really just a function of this Kind of late stage asset repricing that we have.

Speaker 1

Once the Queen Mary turns, we'll be doing better.

Speaker 13

Understood. That is super helpful. Thank you so much. Appreciate it.

Speaker 5

The next question comes from Brody Preston with UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Speaker 7

Good morning. Good morning.

Speaker 14

I just wanted to clarify something on the expense Guidance, I think you said 2% to 3% for next year excluding the special assessment. Is that inclusive of Lone Star or would Lone Star be additive to that expense guide?

Speaker 3

That was a core number I was giving. Lone Star will be added on top of it.

Speaker 14

Got it. Thank you for that. And I know it's challenging, but if you had to kind of Has it a guess for our modeling purposes, when do you think we should layer Lone Star in from a closing timing perspective?

Speaker 2

I'd say it's hard to say. We're hoping sooner rather than later. Our latest extension with them is through March 31. So I think both companies are focused on getting it done before then.

Speaker 14

Got it. Thank you for that. And I did just want to clarify on the timing of the cash flow from the securities book. Is that pretty even as well, about $500,000,000 a quarter moving forward?

Speaker 3

Yes, that's it.

Speaker 14

Got it. And just given that you have Seasonal muni strength through the Q4 and the Q1. Typically, I think it was said earlier, you could pay down more deposits. Is there any thought to maybe just keeping A little bit of that leftover in cash just for the eventual Q3 kind of run off a little bit next year. So you don't have to pick up borrowings next year in case you do get that 3Q runoff of muni?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think we'll definitely the cash coming in from the public funds will probably keep it, but We don't know how long they're going to keep it, probably not long term. So from that standpoint, we're not going to be investing. But yes, I think we'll Keep it ballpark same, I don't think we're going to increase significant or to increase significant our cash.

Speaker 1

We don't. I mean the bottom line is we don't want to be borrowing $4,000,000,000 That's exactly what we Well, our bank historically, we never I guess if you go back, we it's not uncommon to see as a $1,000,000,000 or 2,000,000,000 But we don't like being $400,000,000

Speaker 14

Got it. Understood. I appreciate that. And so at what point, I guess, from the securities roll off perspective, would you think about maybe reinvesting Some of those cash flows, is it kind of once borrowings gets back down close to 0? Just trying to think about when the yield on that portfolio could start to pick up again?

Speaker 1

Right now, I see all the payments being going to reduce our debt. So I don't see ask me In a couple of quarters maybe. I think the money is probably spoken for a while here, I think instead of reinvesting.

Speaker 3

Yes, I think we're going to continue just paying down the borrowing at this moment.

Speaker 4

And loan demand is going to be a factor in that.

Speaker 1

That's true. I mean the loan demand Even though we've tried to moderate it, we've tried to cut it down, we may decide if things the pricing does get good and we're finally getting terms and conditions that we like, we may want to increase that. So that's a good point, Tim.

Speaker 14

Got it. Okay. And Sorry to stay kind of in the weeds here, but any thought given to when you do decide to start reinvesting, maybe Putting some of those securities on as AFS just to give you more flexibility in the future than the HCM book gives you?

Speaker 2

No.

Speaker 14

Got it. Thank you. And I did also just want to ask, I noticed that there was some Strength from First Capital on the deposit side, when I was looking at the press release, anything specific that drove that?

Speaker 2

I think right at quarter end, they had a customer that sold his business and It was pretty good sized chunk of money. Most of that money has moved and subsequently moved off the balance sheet.

Speaker 14

Got it. And then this is my last one. I just wanted to try the buyback question a little bit differently. David, I just pulled up the Price to tangible book chart on S and L and hit max just to get a long term view. And this is At least per S and L's history, the cheapest your stock has ever been on price to tangible book value.

Speaker 14

And so If you do get the clarity that you're looking for in terms of whether or not HTM is going to be included in capital and as you noted, it doesn't feel the winds are blowing that way right now. How aggressive would you be on the buyback? I think you've got 3,400,000 shares left in the existing authorization, that expires in January. I assume you'd re up that, But you just got a lot of capital, the stock is very cheap. And so once we get that clarity, would you look to be more aggressive than even perhaps you've typically been in the past?

Speaker 1

I mentioned earlier, I think this is the best price and that we've ever had that anybody could buy in right now into our stock. So I think we would be interested in purchasing more. On the other hand, a lot of it depends on Possible mergers and acquisitions at the same time too. So we have to keep both of those into consideration, I think. Do we really think is it better to buy our stock back Or can we make more money by buying or acquiring another bank.

Speaker 1

And so I know that's hard. It's not giving you what you need, but those are really truthfully Both of those go hand in hand of how much stock we can buy back and how much we I really don't think that we're going to be impacted by the HTM number. I don't think I mean the Fed themselves have $1,200,000,000 loss on their balance sheet. So it'd be hard to spank somebody else when we've got such The Fed's got such a big loss, but and they know that time will work that out. So I don't think that's going to be an issue.

Speaker 1

So I think once we do find out really where regulatory is going to be, we would be more interested in Bionersauf, especially at these prices. But again, we still We're constantly in talks with other banks at the same time too and that would impact that. It would be

Speaker 2

a fair statement to say that When we look at buying another bank, particularly in bank of size, we look at tangible book value earn back on that Transaction versus a buyback. And we do realize there's not much integration risk on doing a buyback. So it's a safer That, so you'd be willing to suffer more dilution on your own deal than you would on buying another

Speaker 1

And what's different this time, I think, in M and A than it's ever been before, when you're looking at acquiring or merging with the bank, Banks have losses in their portfolio. So instead of being net capital positive, And just what somebody recommended at the beginning of the call, why don't you all take some of your capital and redo your bond portfolio? We're not willing to do that. But In a merger and acquisition, you got to market to market. So you're going to mark their capital down, which would bring the overall capital down, although we will get that money back really quickly.

Speaker 1

So those are just the considerations.

Speaker 14

Yes. I would just think that just given the experience with Lonestar For a relatively simple deal, and it's been extended due to factors that are outside of your control and May not be warranted. It just seems like the buyback, which is something that I know your shareholders would like would be The safest and easiest route, so you're not kind of tied up with the merger.

Speaker 2

But I appreciate

Speaker 1

there's nothing else, we'll buy back or stop, let me say that.

Speaker 14

Got it. Thanks, guys.

Speaker 5

The next question comes from Matt Olney with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Hey, thanks guys. Just Following up on the time deposits, also, Beck, do you have any color on those time deposits being rolled over here in the near term, The dollar amounts and the prices, the yields coming off at?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, we introduced our 7 months Special CD program 7 months ago. So we see those rolling over and we see good level of renewal on that one. And I mean, but from the growth, we don't see as much of an increase in the growth what we saw in the 1st 2 months of it. From dollar wise, man, I think I need to get back with you.

Speaker 3

I don't have specifics on the

Speaker 1

How much is in that we sold in that product? That $1,500,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $7,000,000 something like that. Yes.

Speaker 4

And we don't have hardly any CDs that go beyond 2 years.

Speaker 1

Our total CDs are what right now, I doubt that they're under 10% of our

Speaker 4

It's about 12%, higher than

Speaker 3

10%, But that only grows, so we see that is in that 7 month special program and they are just renewing it from But over

Speaker 1

time, if rates stay higher, I think you will see the percentage of CDs to other deposits continue to grow. I remember before rates went to 0, It wasn't uncommon for a bank like us to have 20% or 30% of their money in certificates of deposits. So over time, I think you could see that change

Speaker 3

for Sure. Yes, Matt, that confirms $1,500,000,000 on the 7 month specialty line.

Speaker 15

Okay. Thanks for that. And then on the $4,000,000,000 Borrowing position, any color on the duration here? I assume most, if

Speaker 1

not all these are eligible

Speaker 15

to be paid down In the near

Speaker 3

term. Yes. Essentially, we have a $3,000,000,000 from the Fed that we can pay off anytime and rest of them were FHLB The overnight pretty much so all $4,000,000,000 can be paid off in a day if we need to.

Speaker 15

And then on those cash flows you mentioned also back, the $2,100,000,000 that you expect over the next 12 months, Any color or commentary you can give us as far as the yields on those maturities?

Speaker 2

20 2%.

Speaker 3

Yes, exactly. It's exactly pretty much the same with our portfolio shows around 2%.

Speaker 15

Okay, got it. Okay, that's all for me. Thanks guys.

Speaker 5

The next question comes from Jon Arfstrom with RBC T Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thanks. I hope I'm last.

Speaker 6

I hope I'm the last.

Speaker 1

We hadn't heard from you for a while. We thought

Speaker 8

There's love David, 20 year love. Yes, Yes, real quick. The $10,000,000,000 little over $10,000,000,000 in non interest bearing deposits, do you feel like is that a floor? Is it over in terms of the non interest bearing outflows?

Speaker 1

The first anybody would like to say yes that it is, but We really don't know that. I think that if interest rates stay high, when I see money moving, normally you would think It's because our money market rate we're paying about 3%. That's if you have over what $1,000,000 in it or something or 100,000.

Speaker 3

For the 10% yes, dollars $1,000,000

Speaker 1

Okay. So you would think that maybe that's where the money would be leaving from to go to Buying these treasure net. But when I really look at it, we have another not only the $10,000,000,000 that we have in non interest bearing, we have another how much And the interest bearing checking is paying 15 or 25 basis points, a huge amount of money. But those are the 2 categories That I actually see go the people are they're just starting to work their money more. So I guess the answer to the question is And by itself, I think he probably will see we will see money come out of those accounts Buying either higher rate CDs or going to buy treasuries at the same time.

Speaker 1

Hopefully, our bank Historically, John, has grown the bank 2% to 4% a year organically in deposits. And of course, you haven't seen that at all. So I'm hoping this is just a gut feel is that we will start maybe at some point We'll turn around and start building that bank again to offset what's really going out. But people the bottom line, people are working their money. This is interesting because I asked Asselbeck to look into it.

Speaker 1

Our bank historically before you had all the helicopter money drop, we would grow the bank 2% to 4% organically every year on deposit side. And then of course, you had 10% to 20% gains with helicopter money. But also back went back and took All the money that we've lost and taken out the money that came from the acquisition of First Capital. And believe it or not, today, if you would have never had the helicopter money, we're kind of out in the same place. We're still have grown about 2% to 4%.

Speaker 1

So whether it looks like a lot of the money has left the bank. If you wouldn't had it to begin with all the helicopter money, We're probably right where we would have been to begin with. I know that's getting kind of esoteric, but we really wanted to look at that. So So I think the future is we'll still get back to that as a category to you. You will see banks in the future start growing deposits again organically, I think, at some point in time.

Speaker 8

Okay. Just 2 more random ones. FTEs were up 140 employees. I normally wouldn't ask about it, but that's More than normal? Is that acquisition good or what's driving that?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think because acquisition had impact on it because FTE On average, so that's had a 3 months of people from the FCB acquisition that's impacting

Speaker 1

I think you have that, but you also have The regulators are pushing harder for data governance. They're pushing harder in BSA. They're pushing harder in compliance. I think you're seeing all of that.

Speaker 3

Yes.

Speaker 1

Now some of that can probably be offset by the mortgage department. The mortgage, I think we're letting people go or reassess And in the mortgage department. So we might be able to offset that. But part of that is just regulatory burden too. As you get bigger and bigger, the regulatory burden, Nobody would believe it.

Speaker 1

It's just it's crazy.

Speaker 8

Yes. That's what I was getting at. That's what I was wondering. I remember you saying once, David, you had After the financial crisis, 20 new employees working for the government, but they were on your payroll instead of the government, something like that?

Speaker 1

This one's just running out. Probably over 200 now.

Speaker 8

Yes. Okay. And just one more and this can be quick, but On credit, it sounds like you're not seeing anything, but I'm curious, do you guys expect a credit cycle for the industry When you look around and you look at your peers and you look at some of the loan proposals that you're making to take loans from other banks, do you guys expect the credit cycle?

Speaker 1

To me, I mean, I'll be the first to answer as the other guys can answer too. But I think the credit cycle is probably going to be More regional in nature. I think that if you're in San Francisco or New York, and you have populations that are moving out. I think those are going to probably be impacted, especially from the office space and more so than I think what we're seeing in Texas and Oklahoma, A properties don't seem to be affected at all. In fact, Anything more people are moving to the A properties.

Speaker 1

It's really the B and C properties that are impacted and the bigger charge off that we had Last quarter or so really came from a 3 deal office deal that we had that really never was past due and maybe we jumped the gun and just sold it too quick, but We always like to get rid of our problems right away. But so I think you do see that seasonally popping up. I do think that From the First Capital Bank that we acquired, we do see some problems. They're not really commercial real estate office problems. They're more in What nursing home, Randy, a couple of nursing homes and stuff?

Speaker 4

Yes, some acute care and some spotty retail.

Speaker 1

So we see that. So I think a lot

Speaker 4

of it has to do with

Speaker 1

the underwriting and the risk that the banks took too. But it also comes from where you're located. I think Your circumstances around you add

Speaker 4

a lot to it.

Speaker 1

So I think the banks that had good underwriting are even the Banks that have good underwriting are located in growth states are going to be fine. The banks that have good underwriting in states where they're seeing Outflow, they probably will be fine too. But the banks that historically have had bad underwriting, they're going to be bad in both of scenarios, regional and I think it's just going to always go back. I think it's going to go back to your underwriting really. That's just me.

Speaker 8

All right. Thanks for the time. I appreciate it.

Speaker 5

This concludes our question and answer session. I would now like to hand the call back to Charlotte Rasche for closing remarks.

Operator

Thank you. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for taking the time to participate in our call today. We appreciate your support of our company and we will continue to work on building shareholder value.

Speaker 5

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for your

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Key Takeaways

  • Prosperity’s Board approved a Q4 dividend increase to $0.56 per share (up from $0.55), marking an 11.5% compounded annual growth rate in dividends since 2003, while tangible capital rose $243 million year-over-year after $203 million in dividends and $72 million in share repurchases.
  • Q3 net income was $112 million (EPS $1.20) versus $135 million (EPS $1.49) in Q3 2022, primarily due to a lower net interest margin of 2.72%, though management’s models forecast NIM rebound to more normal levels over the next 6–24 months as assets reprice.
  • Loans totaled $21.4 billion on September 30, down 1% from June 30 but up 15.8% year-over-year (8.2% excluding acquisitions and warehouse lines), while deposits held steady at $27.3 billion with noninterest-bearing deposits at a strong 37.6% of the total.
  • Asset quality remains sound with nonperforming assets at 0.20% of average earning assets and an allowance for credit losses of $388 million, including full day-one reserves on acquired loans and plans for deeper collateral reviews.
  • The Lone Star Bancshares acquisition remains pending regulatory approval, with the merger agreement extended to March 31, 2024 and an operational conversion slated for Q2 2024.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Prosperity Bancshares Q3 2023
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