Carpenter Technology Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
October 26, 2023

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Corporation First Quarter 20 24 Fiscal Year Financial Results Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode.

Speaker 1

After today's presentation,

Operator

Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. John Hewitt, Vice President, Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Carpenter Technology Earnings Conference Call for the fiscal 2024 Q1 ended September 30, 2023. This call is also being broadcast over the Internet along with presentation slides. Please note, for those of you listening by phone, you may experience a time delay in slide movement. Speakers on the call today are Tony Taine, President and Chief Executive Officer and Tim Lane, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Speaker 2

Statements made by management during this earnings presentation that are forward looking statements or based on current expectations. Risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward looking statements can be found in Carpenter Technology's most recent SEC filings, including the company's report on Form 10 ks for the year ended June 30, 2023, in the exhibits attached to that filing. Please note That in the following discussion, unless otherwise noted, when management discuss the sales or revenue, that reference excludes surcharge. When referring to operating margins, that is based on adjusted operating income, excluding special items and sales, excluding surcharge. I will now turn the call over to Tony.

Speaker 1

Thank you, John, and good morning to everyone on the call today. I will begin on Slide 4 with a review of our safety performance. For the Q1 of fiscal year 2024, Our total case incident rate was 2.1. This rate has been elevated over the last several quarters as we integrate a large number of new employees into our operations. We are focused on specific actions to maintain the lower severity and identify potential risks.

Speaker 1

Our target remains a 0 injury workplace and we will continue to work tirelessly to achieve that target. Now let's turn to Slide 5 and a review of the Q1. On our last earnings call, we provided an outlook for the Q1 of fiscal year 2024 and signaled operating income was expected to be flat or slightly up sequentially, even though we outperformed the 4th quarter expectations. That first quarter guidance represented a meaningful improvement compared to the historical trend of a sequential decline in profits in the Q1 of a fiscal year. Building on our operating momentum, we exceeded that guidance and reported Q1 operating income of $69,000,000 a 10% increase sequentially.

Speaker 1

Most notably, the SAO segment exceeded expectations for the quarter, delivering $80,800,000 and operating income above the outlook we provided of $72,000,000 to $77,000,000 Further, SAO realized an adjusted operating margin of 19.4%, growing from 16.8% in the previous quarter. This impressive margin expansion came as a result of targeted improvement in product mix, higher realized prices and continued focus on productivity. We continue to realize price gains on both contractual and transactional business. As evidenced, at the beginning of October, we announced another price increase of 7% to 12% on our SAO transactional business. We also generated $7,400,000 of cash from operations during the quarter, maintaining a healthy liquidity of $366,400,000 Finally, we are positioned in a strong demand environment across our end use markets where our material solutions are valued by our customers.

Speaker 1

Now let's take a closer look at our demand outlook on Slide 6. Carpenter Technology produces specialized highly engineered products that are essential to the function of critical applications across aerospace, Defense, medical and other end use markets. Our unique collection of assets and capabilities to produce these products or not easily replicated and it requires decades of experience to generate the high quality needed to meet stringent industry standards. Demand for our difficult to manufacture products is exceeding industry supply and we see tangible evidence of this. Our backlog continues to grow, setting new records every quarter.

Speaker 1

In the Q1 of fiscal year 2024, Our backlog was up 5% sequentially and 32% year over year. We continue to raise prices with our most Recent announcement earlier this month of a 7% to 12% increase on our SAO transactional business. Lead times remain at record levels and could be even longer as we are actively managing incoming orders. And customers continue to tell us their primary concern is surety of supply, asking when they can book more with us. We expect this demand environment to remain strong.

Speaker 1

In aerospace, OEMs continue to work to increase build rates, targeting levels exceeding pre pandemic highs. Defense demand already growing is projected to accelerate due to geopolitical events. Medical demand continues on a steady climb due to strong trends such as aging population and focus on patient outcomes. And demand for our premium products in our other markets is also projected to remain high due to ongoing energy investment needs, light duty vehicle builds and semiconductor capacity expansion. As always, there is active discussion in the general marketplace about near term demand.

Speaker 1

For example, even most recently this week, Some aerospace OEMs discussing build rate target adjustments and ongoing delivery challenges within the supply chain or the impact of disruption to vehicle manufacturing associated with worker strikes. What we can't firm is that these issues are not affecting our general demand levels. We remain oversubscribed in terms of demand with customers generally wanting more than we can produce. We have a substantial backlog of orders with material wanted sooner. Even as we work to increase output, we also see unexpected emergency demand from areas like medical and defense associated with current world events or from aerospace associated with spares need.

Speaker 1

What you are hearing from the marketplace is an affirmation of the strong demand in the near term and the long term. Beyond the near term, our customers also continue to partner with us on their strategic growth efforts. Medical innovations, next generation defense platforms and electrification are examples of areas where customers are partnering with us to develop their next generation products. In this demand environment, we are well positioned to continue to drive top line growth while expanding our margins through productivity improvements, Product mix optimization and higher prices. Now let's review Q1 sales performance.

Speaker 1

In the Q1 of fiscal year 2024, sales decreased sequentially and increased significantly year over year. The year over year performance reflects our significant productivity gains. As anticipated, volumes decreased sequentially due to fewer operating days, planned preventive maintenance activity, and most importantly, targeted mix management. Importantly, profitability improved in the quarter, resulting in a sequential increase in our operating income on lower sales. Notably, SAO's adjusted operating margin was 19.4% in the quarter, up from 16.8% in the Q4 of fiscal year 2023.

Speaker 1

The profit margin expanded through a combination of productivity efforts, price increases and strategic mix management. This means we are actively allocating capacity to the areas where we add the most value. We serve critical applications across all of our end use markets and apply ongoing strategic mix management in how we serve them to capitalize on the higher margin products. Our profitability has been increasing over the previous quarters and will continue to improve with higher pricing, Product mix optimization and continued productivity improvements. Now, I will turn it over to Tim for the financial summary.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Tony. Good morning, everyone. I'll start on Slide 9, the income statement summary. Net sales in the first Sales excluding surcharge increased 31% from the same period a year ago on 12% higher volume. Sequentially, sales were down 12% on 18% lower volume.

Speaker 3

The year over year increase was driven by significant productivity gains to meet growing demand. As Tony mentioned earlier, the lower sales and volumes sequentially were primarily the result of fewer operating days and planned preventative maintenance activities necessary to ensure our equipment continues to perform at high levels. Gross profit was $124,100,000 in the current quarter compared to $54,800,000 in the same quarter of last year and $119,000,000 in the Q4 of fiscal year 2023. Gross profit in the current quarter is up 126% compared to the same quarter last year and up 4% sequentially. SG and A expenses We're $55,100,000 in the Q1, up about $9,000,000 from the same period a year ago and roughly $1,000,000 lower sequentially.

Speaker 3

The increase in SG and A expenses versus the same quarter last year is primarily driven by headcount and higher variable compensation accruals. The SG and A line includes corporate costs, which totaled $20,900,000 in the recent Q1. As we look ahead to the upcoming Q2 of fiscal year 2020 We expect corporate costs to be similar to the Q1 at about 21,000,000 Operating income was $69,000,000 in the current quarter compared to $8,300,000 in the same quarter a year ago and $6 $2,900,000 in our recent Q4 of fiscal year 2023. The sequential improvement in operating income of 10% was driven by our productivity efforts, actions we took to manage product mix as well as the benefits realized from higher base prices. As a result of these actions, we continue to see profit margin improve, with total company adjusted operating margin reaching 14%, up from 11.2% in the previous quarter.

Speaker 3

Moving on to our effective tax rate. For the recent Q1, our effective tax rate was 16.1%, which is below our expected full year effective tax rate of roughly 22% to 24%. The lower effective tax rate was driven by tax benefits recognized in the current quarter related to certain share based compensation awards. Note that tax benefits were worth approximately $0.07 per share relative to the guidance we provided. As we look ahead to the upcoming Q2 of fiscal year 2024, We expect the effective tax rate to return to a more normalized rate of about 24%.

Speaker 3

We affect our full year effective tax rate for fiscal year 2024 to be in line with the range we previously communicated of 22% to 24%. Earnings per share for the current quarter was $0.88 per share. The results demonstrate our continued momentum, supported by improving profitability and a strong demand environment. Now turning to Slide 10 and our SAO segment results. Net sales for the Q1 were $570,100,000 or $417,300,000 excluding surcharge.

Speaker 3

Compared to the same period last year, net sales excluding surcharge increased 37% on 12% higher volumes. Sequentially, net sales excluding surcharge decreased 13% on 19% lower volumes. The year over year improvement in net sales was driven by higher shipment volumes due to productivity gains, The impacts of higher prices and an improving product mix across our key end use markets, as Tony reviewed on the market slide. Sequentially, lower volumes as anticipated were impacted by the planned preventative maintenance, Fewer operating days and the delivered actions to improve product mix. Moving to operating results, SAO reported operating income of $80,800,000 in our recent Q1, which outpaced our expectations.

Speaker 3

On a year over year basis, SAO operating income improvement of $61,000,000 is largely due to higher sales driven by strong demand, higher prices and increased production levels. On a sequential basis, operating income improved by about 1,000,000 Again, our operating income results improved despite the lower volumes. This improvement was largely the result of the positive impact of targeted mix improvements, Higher prices and realized production efficiencies. The improvements in productivity, mix and pricing are evident in the adjusted operating margin, which has increased to 19.4% in the current period as compared with 6.5% in the same period a year ago and 16.8% sequentially. Looking ahead, the SAO team remains focused on executing actions to further increase production levels and production flow and to actively manage the product mix to maximize the capacity for high value products.

Speaker 3

Based on current expectations, We anticipate SAO will generate operating income in the range of $78,000,000 to $82,000,000 in the upcoming Q2 of fiscal year 2024. Now turning to Slide 11 and our PEP segment results. Net sales in the Q1 of fiscal year 2020 Net sales excluding surcharge increased 6% from the same quarter last year and decreased 13% sequentially. The year over year growth in net sales was driven by strong demand conditions, primarily in our Dynamet Titanium business. More specifically in our Dynamet Titanium business, the growth in net sales from the same quarter a year ago was driven by materials used in medical applications.

Speaker 3

In the current quarter, PEP reported operating income of $9,100,000 This compares to operating income of 6 $300,000 in the same quarter a year ago and operating income of $5,900,000 in the Q4 of fiscal year 2023. The increase in operating income in the current quarter is primarily the result of improving profitability in our Dynamet business. Similar to SAO, Dynamet continues to focus on improving productivity to meet strong demand in the aerospace and defense and medical end use markets for our titanium product. We currently anticipate that the PEP segment will deliver Operating income in the range of $9,500,000 to $10,500,000 for the upcoming Q2 of fiscal year 2024. Now turning to Slide 12 and a review of adjusted free cash flow.

Speaker 3

In the current quarter, we generated $7,400,000 of cash from operating activities compared to $174,900,000 in our recent Q4 and cash used for operating activities of $78,000,000 in the same quarter last year. On a year over year basis, the cash from operations was significantly influenced by higher profitability and less pronounced inventory build as we continue to improve productivity and product flow across our operations. In the Q1 of last year, we built $121,000,000 of inventory as compared with $68,000,000 of inventory built in the current Q1. In the Q1 of fiscal year 2024, we spent $22,000,000 on capital expenditures. We continue to expect to spend a total of about $125,000,000 in capital expenditures for fiscal year 2024.

Speaker 3

With those details in mind, we reported negative adjusted free cash flow of $15,000,000 in the Q1 of fiscal year 2024. Our liquidity remains healthy and we ended the current quarter with total liquidity of $366,000,000 including $18,000,000 of cash and $348,000,000 of available borrowings under our credit facility. With that, I'll turn the call back to Tony.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Tim. Now let's review the key takeaways from today's call. We realized 10% sequential growth in operating income in the Q1 of fiscal year 2024. This was a meaningful improvement compared to the historical trend of a sequential decline in profits in the Q1 of a fiscal year, and we outperformed our previous guidance. The strong quarterly performance is indicative of the demand environment and our ongoing operating momentum.

Speaker 1

The SAO segment exceeded expectations with operating income of $80,800,000 and adjusted operating margin of 19.4% in the Q1. SAO continues to build momentum with increased productivity, higher prices and improve product mix. We are operating in a strong demand environment for our material solutions with positive near and long term outlooks in our end use markets. This is demonstrated in our record backlogs, long lead times and customer focus on security and supply. Our strong first quarter financial performance combined with the second quarter guidance would result in one of the 2 highest first half financial results in the history of the company.

Speaker 1

Building on that first half momentum, we project second half fiscal year twenty twenty four operating income to be 28% to 35% higher in the first half. Let's take a closer look at the second half outlook on the next slide. As evidenced by our recent performance, we've seen meaningful increases in our productivity over the last several quarters, especially in FAO. However, we still have plenty of runway as we have yet to return to our pre COVID operating rates in some of our key work centers. We continue to invest in training and mentoring programs for our shop floor employees to safely drive productivity gains while maintaining our high quality standards.

Speaker 1

But most importantly, we have certain key work centers which have not been running at their full potential as our mix continues to shift to more difficult to manufacture products. We expect meaningful increases in productivity at these specific units in the second half of this fiscal year. This next level increase in productivity, combined with continued realization of higher pricing and improvement in product mix, should drive operating margins even higher in the second half of fiscal year twenty twenty four. Now let's take a look at how this fits in with the longer term earnings growth projections. As I've detailed in previous calls, Our goal is to double fiscal year 2019 operating income by fiscal year 2027.

Speaker 1

These figures imply a 40% compounded annual growth rate on the operating income from fiscal year 2023 through fiscal year 2027, a very strong growth target. I've also noted that this growth was not going to be back end loaded and that we expected to make significant progress towards our goal in fiscal year 2024. As you can see, with what we expect for the remainder of the fiscal year, we are setting ourselves up to take a meaningful step towards our longer term goal. With estimated fiscal year 2024 operating income in the range of $310,000,000 to $330,000,000 We expect to realize approximately 50% of the opportunity in fiscal year 2024. This level of performance would be the highest annual profitability in the history of the company, and we are working to accelerate The near term and long term demand outlook is strong across our end use market for our broad portfolio of specialized solutions.

Speaker 1

We have leading capabilities with a difficult to replicate system of assets and we continue to drive improved productivity to unlock additional capacity to capture demand. Looking ahead, we are well positioned to continue to drive growth and achieve our long term operating income goal. Thank you. And I will now turn the call back to the operator.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question comes from Gautam Khanna with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Good morning. This is Liz Husainov on Forgot Them. I was just wondering if you can provide any detail about order Trends in the quarter by aero end market, for instance, fasteners versus engines versus other structures?

Speaker 1

Yes, good morning. I'll take that question. Aerospace engine sales were up 43% year over year, down 8% sequentially. So even though down 8% sequentially due to the items that we noted in our prepared remarks, The quarter shipments are about 90% of pre pandemic engine ship rates. So bottom line is that engine sales remain strong and were oversubscribed and the ramp pushed as the ramp pushes demand even higher well beyond pre pandemic levels.

Speaker 1

On fasteners, sales up 77% year over year and down sequentially about 13%, same story there as engines. So hopefully that's helpful.

Speaker 4

Yes. Thank you. And then is there any incremental weakness to demand in non aero markets given the macro?

Speaker 1

Well, certainly, you've heard commentary out there in the market around the general industrial market, and I can comment on that. That is a that's a limited portion of our sales that's used to support that general industrial activity. Those trends are not material meaningful to our bottom line as our focus is really on high value, difficult to manufacture products, where demand is currently outstripping supply by quite a bit. So as you know, our portfolio consists of premium high value products and any type of weakness in those submarkets We'll not impact our bottom line materially in the short term or the near term.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you. And then just one more. Can you give any color on which work centers have the most opportunity for productivity gains?

Speaker 1

Yes, it's a good question. It's a really good question. The biggest driver certainly is on the front end of our which is the primary melting areas. There's a lot more productivity and output we can get from those. So that's the major driver.

Speaker 1

But also on the back end and finishing, if you think outside of SAO and look at Dynamet, for example, Their biggest increase in productivity is on the back end and some of the finishing pieces. And in fact, we've got a couple of pieces of equipment That will be installed here in the near term that could see Dynamet's profitability or operating income Much like I said, they'll go up as close to 50% higher quarterly in the second half versus the first half. So There's a lot of areas that we're working on. I think the good news is that we're able to achieve these Very high levels of operating income knowing that our business is still not operating at 100%. So From a shareholder standpoint, there's a lot more that we can do to drive profits even higher.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Josh Sullivan with The Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning, Tony, Tim, John. Congrats on the quarter here. Just on the base price increase on the non contract alloys, Is there a way to think of percentage or capacity that's available for that transactional business at this point? And then in previous cycles, aerospace was consuming more What did that mix shift look like for the non aerospace markets? And I'm just curious to hear how those non aerospace markets are responding this cycle versus historical cycles?

Speaker 1

Let me see if I can tackle that question for you. Certainly in this cycle here, Aerospace and medical are the ones driving the quickest for us and that makes up well over 75% of our revenue. Some of the other markets, for example, like energy is single digits For us in terms of percent of revenue, but again for them to get time on the mill, we're seeing prices move up significantly in the energy side where they challenge aerospace prices. And that's what it takes for us to be really interested in those types of products. So obviously, our main focus is on the aerospace and medical, Josh, and I would say if you compare it as you have to prior cycles, the amplitude of this ramp It's significantly greater than in prior cycles.

Speaker 3

Got it. And then Tony, you spent some time

Speaker 5

there just talking about the fiscal 'twenty seven targets The front end loaded nature of how the guidance is put together. But as far as the back end of those targets, is there any reason we would think The plateau there or is it just conservatism on your nature?

Speaker 1

Well, we've heard that. As I was I thought I'd get a question on this, Josh. And if you let me kind of go on for a little bit to kind of put all that in context and then come back to your Your question. I spent some time last night and I was thinking about what we've really said over the last couple of quarters. And as you well know, you were there, This all started in May of 2023 when we had our Investor Day, right, where we said we were going to double Operating income FY 2019 versus FY 20 27, which is one of our most profitable years by the way, 40% CAGR from 2023 to 2027.

Speaker 1

As you mentioned, we said it wasn't going to be back end loaded. It was going to have meaningful cash generation and we didn't need to make any large scale capital expenditures for capacity or M and A to get there. We come out with the 4th quarter and we actually exceed our target of getting to FY 2019 run rate profitability. So that's a big check mark. During that Q4, so about 3 months ago, we said that this Q1 was going to be slightly down to flat and we was going You know, bust through the normal seasonality where you see the Q1 being sequentially down.

Speaker 1

And as you all know, we had a lot of people doubt us and say that you couldn't do that. Well, We actually exceeded that number. And now we come in and say that the second quarter is going to be another Impressive quarter just like Q1, even though we'll continue to do our planned maintenance, even though it's got 2 major holidays in there, We're still going to operate at that level. And then what you're getting to the new piece of information that we came out with today, We said that even after those two quarters, put those together and we're going to do another 28% to 35% on top of that. It's very impressive growth and that's why we took the time, Josh, to talk to you about That some of these work centers are still not running at the rates that we know they can run at.

Speaker 1

That's how we have line of sight to that second half. Again, we said it wasn't going to be back end loaded, but we never said that we were going to get 50% In year 1 of 4, and I think your question is that that's an awfully strong comment. We've heard now, does that mean that years 2, 3 and 4 Could be even more. And is there some conservatism put in there? You might have a point.

Speaker 1

Maybe there probably is a little conservatism in there and we have the ability to even push that higher.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you. Thank you for that. And just one on the productivity side of that. Do you think Carpenter is doing anything different On the labor side in those work centers or do you think it's just a natural factor of time and experience that they're getting better?

Speaker 1

I don't know if we're doing anything differently. I mean, we have to be very, I'll use the word cautious, right, because we are producing products that can never fail, a very high quality standard. So we just don't take chances. If an operator is not ready, they're not ready. And we don't push them to put them in a situation where we could sacrifice the quality of our product.

Speaker 1

That's just unacceptable. I'll give you a couple of numbers that are interesting. If you think about a new employee that's been with us 2 years or less, And if you look at our SAO operation, our plants range anywhere from 30 to 60% of our shop floor workers have been there 2 years or less. In our Dynamet facility, we have one facility that 50% are new in the last 2 years. The other is almost 30%.

Speaker 1

That is a big influx of new employees, Highly qualified, meaning the level of employee that we're attracting is very high, but it's a complex, Very sophisticated equipment that we're going to make sure they can operate it, number 1, safely and always within the quality standards that we hold ourselves to and that the industry requires. So you've seen some nice improvement over the last couple of quarters. The good news is there's still more improvement to come. Hopefully that answers your question.

Speaker 5

Yes, great. Thank you. Congrats on the quarter and thank you for the time.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Chris Olin with Northcoast Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning. Congrats on the quarter, guys.

Speaker 1

Hey, Chris. Good morning.

Speaker 6

Just wondering on the near term, has there been any type of negative volume impact Associated with the drop in the commodity nickel market, just wondering if some customers will delay orders or you're seeing any of that Because of the surcharge visibility or are we at a point where like the long term behavior has kind of changed when Your customers are worried about supply.

Speaker 1

I think it's the latter, right? And I think I know we're not having any customers delay orders because of where the nickel price is or where they think it's going to go. I mean, we have all of our customers trying to get into the order book earlier, Right. As you know, we've closed the order book a couple of times. So that comment that you just made just In this type of environment, it does not it's never made.

Speaker 1

It's never discussed. That's not a factor.

Speaker 6

Okay. I may have missed it. I apologize if I had, but I was just thinking about the pricing dynamics and your comments about the increases. I was just wondering if there are contract renewals on Horizon yet. I can't recall from the last quarter.

Speaker 1

Yes, there are. I mean, over the last couple of years, obviously, by our results, you can tell that we've had contracts that have renewed and now you're seeing that higher price come through. And there are a couple more that are in the Works as well. So it seems like at any point in time, we have 1 or 2 that we're working through and there's a couple significant ones that we're working through as we speak.

Speaker 6

Is it safe to assume something like 20%, 30% renews price each year for the model?

Speaker 1

Let me make sure I understand your question. Are you saying that 20% or 30% of contracts renew every year?

Speaker 6

Yes, we'll renew at a higher price, so I could put that in my

Speaker 1

Well, all contracts are renewing at a higher price. That's something that's Consistent across the industry, you can take that with a high level of confidence that all contract renewals will be It's a much higher price.

Speaker 6

Okay. Just last, wanted to shift quickly back to Dynamet. And I guess I'm thinking a bit about the Boeing 787 and the A350 50 build rate increases, kind of the peak outlook. And I can't recall if Dynamet Is levered to one platform more than the other? And would you benefit kind of significantly from a doubling of the production targets.

Speaker 6

And I just lastly, do you have enough capacity to satisfy that if you do?

Speaker 1

Well, to answer your last piece of your question first, no, there's not enough capacity in the system across multiple submarkets. For us, we sell to every one of the fastener companies. So whether it's Boeing or Airbus, It's a type of demand environment when demand is so much higher than supply, that's just not a factor. We're oversubscribed and We anticipate that being like that for several years to come regardless of the split between wide body and single aisle and Boeing or Airbus.

Speaker 6

Would a capital investment be on the horizon for that to adjust?

Speaker 1

Possibly. I mean, Dynamid, just like SAO, Is working to get up to rates as well. We're not running in Dynamit at the level we need to run at. And on a previous question from Cowen, I said that in fact we have a couple of pieces of equipment That are coming in here in the near term into Dynamet that will increase our finishing capacity. So that will help as well.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. Thanks so much.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thank you, sir.

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Leshock with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning. I just wanted to ask here on volumes that we saw in the quarter given the less shipping days, but looking forward, how do you see volumes increasing relative to price and mix? So if your long term guidance incorporates a 15% to 20% increase in volumes above fiscal 2019, Do you expect that volume uptick to be largely in fiscal 2024 or is the big step up this year more so a function of price And the volume piece is more linear over the course of your long term guidance?

Speaker 1

Well, the volume is going to follow our Productivity for the most part, I mean, as you've seen now in this quarter into next, a big part of our strategic mix management Moving that volume around because some of the products as we move To different types of products, they take longer to process through the system, right, especially like in a primary milk product, it could be melted three times. That just takes longer to go through the system, much higher margins on that, but it takes longer. But as you see our productivity continue to increase as we've talked about as some of these other Pieces come online, certainly volume will be higher in the second half than the first half.

Speaker 7

And then on maintenance, were you able to get all your normal seasonal maintenance spending done just given the lower CapEx Spend sequentially, and maybe running your assets above normal seasonal utilization levels, Or do you see any spilling into the Q2?

Speaker 1

Well, we're going to we're in perpetual preventive maintenance. The days of Shutting your plant down for 3 weeks and turning everything off and sending everyone home and doing all your preventive maintenance are over, Right. That just doesn't that's not the most efficient way. We are always in a cycle of preventive maintenance. And I think I've been asked why do I talk about this.

Speaker 1

And when you're in a situation where Supply can meet demand. Certainly, no one really talks about preventive maintenance. But when you're in a sold out environment, where any amount of downtime, any amount of downtime will translate to customer impact and the amount of product you could ship, Well, then that's why it makes it important. That's why it's important to say at any point in time, we're going to be doing that. Secondly, I would say it's really important to remember, Mike, We have really exclusive highly sought after assets and it's our job as skilled operators to protect that equipment obviously over the long term.

Speaker 1

So We're aiming for a 40% annual CAGR over the next 4 years. That's our goal. Our goal is not run the equipment to failure simply to earn a couple more $1,000,000 on top of already a record quarter, Right. So I mean that would be unprofessional. So it's not about trying to let's run it more and try to get another couple of million.

Speaker 1

We're in for the long haul where we're going double operating income versus FY 2019 over 4 years. So we got to protect our equipment and treat it the right way.

Speaker 7

Got it. Appreciate all the detail.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to John Hewitt for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, operator, and Thank you everyone for joining us today for our fiscal year 2024 Q1 conference call. Have a great rest of your day.

Operator

The conference has now concluded.

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