Patrick Industries Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 26, 2023

Key Takeaways

  • Despite a 22% revenue decline, the company drove gross margin up 170 basis points and adjusted EBITDA margin up 130 basis points through cost savings and automation investments.
  • Patrick generated $105 million of free cash flow in Q3, ended with approximately $700 million of net liquidity, and paid down $110 million of revolving debt, reflecting strong cash generation and balance sheet management.
  • Third-quarter net sales fell 22% to $866 million and net income declined 33% to $40 million, as shipments across RV, marine, and housing markets continued to weaken amid high interest rates.
  • 2023 shipment guidance calls for RV volumes down 37%–40%, marine down 15%–17%, and manufactured housing down 20%–25%, with similar declines expected in 2024, underscoring ongoing market headwinds.
  • The company is leveraging its strategic diversification, ongoing automation initiatives, and a full M&A pipeline to drive future growth and innovation in RV, marine, and housing businesses.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Patrick Industries Q3 2023
00:00 / 00:00

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Morning, ladies

Speaker 1

and gentlemen, and welcome to Patrick Industries Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Rob, and I'll be your operator for today's call. Please note this conference is being recorded. And I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Steve O'Hara, Vice President of Mr.

Speaker 1

O'Hara, you may begin.

Speaker 2

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to

Operator

our call this morning. I'm joined on the call today by Andy Nemeth, CEO

Speaker 3

are in the line with Jeff Rodino, President and

Operator

Matt Feiler, Interim CFO. Certain statements made in today's conference call regarding Patrick Industries and its operations may be considered forward looking statements Under the securities laws, there are a number of factors, many of which are beyond the company's control, which could cause the actual results and events to differ materially from those described in the forward looking These factors are identified in our press releases, our Form 10 ks for the year ended 2022 and in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We undertake no obligation to update these statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the date the forward looking statements are made. I would now like to turn the call over to Andy Neiman.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call today. Before discussing the results for the Q3 and 1st 9 months of 2023, I want to take a moment and continue to thank our amazing team members for their dedication and commitment in driving solid organizational performance during incredible dynamic market conditions. Our success would not be possible without their hard work, have their attention to detail and commitment to excellence and quality customer service. Our team continues to be driven by a purpose and passion for the great outdoors participating in the industry and the impact our branded quality innovative products and services can have as we strive to elevate the customer experience for our valued partners in the outdoor enthusiast and housing markets.

Speaker 4

Over the past few years, our strength, resilience and results have reflected the benefits of our strategic diversification And this quarter was no exception. In spite of the fluid dynamics of our end market landscape in the face of challenging macroeconomic environment, are participating in the market. Specifically related to the highest interest rates in more than 20 years, our team and flexible business model continue to adapt and perform, are participating in the process of providing liquidity and our cash flows evidence the underlying strength of our portfolio of branded companies In addition to the benefits of our diversification and strategic model, our 3 end market focused businesses have unique advantages that complement each other in our portfolio. Our RV focused business units generally have are highly leverageable variable cost structure that is also highly scalable up and down in alignment with real time changes to production levels. Our marine focused business units generally have a higher fixed cost structure that generally delivers a higher engineered core competency value proposition.

Speaker 4

Our housing focused businesses generally offer us a more stable, low overhead platform with a low fixed cost structure that is are highly leverageable, especially in the event production volumes improve. Many of our businesses cross pollinate in manufacturing competencies, continue to be in the range of continuous improvement opportunities, product lines, capacities and markets allowing us to constantly synergize and continue to bring new innovations to our customers. The current general theme across our end markets from our perspective can be broadly centered around the overhang of high interest rates and their impact on retail consumer sales conversion, dealer inventory stocking and overall increased hurdle rates for return on capital. Over the last 15 months, OEMs in the RV industry have skillfully manage their production downward, showcasing the industry's real time scalability, adaptability and maturity. As we head into the Q4, we see the industry currently matched in a period where retail registrations and wholesale production are closely aligned are in position for a one to one basis and very nimble ready to pivot.

Speaker 4

Our teams have done an exceptional job of flexing our cost model in alignment and executing on numerous automation initiatives to improve our productivity, throughput and efficiency, and We will continue to support our OEM partners diligence and remain prepared to respond swiftly when we need to ramp up production or scale back further if needed. On the marine front, as we noted last quarter, marine OEMs have responded in real time to inventory restock calibration in the field in partnership with what we believe similar to the RV industry is a cautious dealer base that appears extremely sensitive to inventory imbalance in the channel in the high carrying cost of floorplan financing. Retail on the marine side has held up better than we expected with OEMs and dealers alike intent on keeping dealer participants are in the same store and their floor plan costs as low as possible in this environment and extremely manageable. On the housing front, Our housing markets, both manufactured and single family multifamily, have also been very disciplined in their production and build schedules in markets where we believe there is and expect will continue to be a shortage of overall housing inventory. Are participating in mid fiscal 2022 and carrying through fiscal 2023, we have worked to identify and eliminate costs without compromising the quality and reliability have a listen to our press release.

Speaker 4

On an annualized basis in 2023, we eliminated an estimated $100,000,000,000 in total costs, enhancing our ability to maintain margins as we respond to market conditions and industry trends. Our margins have remained resilient amid slowing marine production in what we now expect to be the lowest RV production in 10 years. Our team's disciplined execution on labor and cost management in addition to our investments in automation and continuous improvement helped drive gross margin improvement of 170 basis points, While our operating margin declined just 10 basis points despite the 22% reduction in net sales. Additionally, our adjusted EBITDA margin increased 130 basis points from the Q3 of 2022. From a working capital perspective as well, we have continued our disciplined inventory management strategy that enabled us to reduce inventory by $37,000,000 in the Q3 of are $2023,000,000 $150,000,000 year to date and more than $215,000,000 in the last 12 months, further evidencing the nimbleness of our operating model and our team's ability to adeptly and successfully manage working capital.

Speaker 4

These measures have not only bolstered our financial stability, but have also paved the way for us to seize opportunities and maximize the profitability of our business when production increases in the future. The core of our business is built around a brand fronted foundation anchored in the entrepreneurial spirit, focused on our innovative full component solutions model. We've strategically and organically built a product offering that strives to deliver a good, better, best value proposition With our strategic diversification representing a further extension to bring the best solutions to our customers. We offer are to be confident that we have what they need to design, engineer and build their RVs, boats and houses no matter what category of product line they are producing. With RV OEMs looking to reduce their ASPs in this environment, the importance of our good, better, best model is clear and evident remains the cornerstone of our brand forward go to market strategy.

Speaker 4

With this model, we expect to continue to gain share, which will continue to pay dividends when production levels The strength and resilience of our operating model, liquidity and competitive leverage position has enabled us to be proactive and be strategic in a cautious environment and further invest in our foundational model to continue to future proof our business and drive off of our already solid foundation. As mentioned, our brands and the strength of their teams are the foundation of our company, driving our innovation and the engineering of new products every year, bringing new ideas and solutions to our OEM partners. As we continue to be forward thinking, we plan to further enhance and embed our strategic value proposition. Are participating in the Q1 of 2019. One example as we head into the last quarter and upcoming model year is our deep focus on collaboration across business units to create a seamless process to to improve product solution innovation through the creation of Patrick's Advanced Products Evolution Group.

Speaker 4

This independent focused engineering team will work closely With our already established innovation team and together we'll help our brands collaborate, shorten product development times and elevate our commitment to excellence as we look ahead will be participating in the Before we highlight our Q3 year over year financial performance, let's revisit the 2019 comparison we've made in the past two quarters that we believe

Speaker 5

will participate in the improved resiliency and profitability of Patrick.

Speaker 4

In the Q3 of 2023, RV wholesale unit shipments were 21% lower same period in 2019. Despite the sharply lower unit volumes, total revenue in the Q3 of 2023 was 53% higher than 2019. Gross margin was 460 basis points higher and operating margin was 160 basis points higher, helping drive a 97% increase in EPS are participating in the same period in 2019. In addition, this quarter we generated $105,000,000 of free cash flow versus $24,000,000 in 20.19. Compared to our results last year, our 3rd quarter revenues decreased 22% to 866,000,000 And on a trailing 12 month basis, our consolidated revenues were approximately $3,600,000,000 Our net income in the 3rd quarter decreased 33% are participating in the call to approximately $40,000,000 and net income per diluted share was $1.81 As a reminder, we are comparing to a prior year period where we hit 3rd quarter records Our team delivered another impressive cash flow performance this quarter with operating cash flow of $115,000,000 applying free cash flow in the quarter of $105,000,000 We ended the Q3 with total net liquidity of approximately $700,000,000 Which along with our free cash flow, reflects our prudent financial management and heightened ability to execute on growth opportunities, call while maintaining the flexibility to continue to pivot and weather current and future macroeconomic challenges and opportunities.

Speaker 4

Will now turn the call over to Jeff, who will highlight the quarter and provide more detail on our end markets.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Andy, and good morning, everyone. On 3rd quarter RV revenues, which represents 46% of our consolidated total, decreased 24% to $400,000,000 participating in the same period in 2022. Our RV content per unit decreased 2% on a TTM basis to $4,957

Speaker 4

participating in the call. At this

Speaker 5

time, all participants are participating in the same

Speaker 6

period of time. We are pleased to announce that our expectations are being made by our actions to pass along favorable pricing to our customers, reflecting certain declining commodity costs and smaller units taking larger percentage of production mix, partially offset by market share gains. Additionally, from our operating perspective, OEMs returned to a more predictive production schedule in the 3rd quarter, which allowed are ready to participate in the future. RV wholesale unit shipments of approximately 73,300 units decreased by 20% or more than 18,000 units from the Q3 of 2022. We currently estimate 3rd quarter retail registrations were approximately 105,800 units, an estimated decline of approximately 13% are participating in the Q3 of 2022.

Speaker 6

The metrics we have outlined imply a net decrease in dealer inventories of approximately 32,500 units in the quarter and approximately 78,000 units year to date. Our estimates indicate that the TTM dealer inventory weeks on hand at the end of the third in the quarter of 2023 have declined to approximately 12 to 14 weeks from 19 to 21 weeks at the beginning of fiscal 2023 are in the range of 16 weeks to 18 weeks at the end of the Q2 of 2023. This is well below historical levels of approximately 26 weeks to 30 weeks. From a model year mix perspective, as it relates to the current dealer inventory levels, we believe the ratio of prior model year units that currently sit on dealer lots reflects a more normal relationship compared to what we experienced over the first half of the year. For context, we estimate just 300,000 model year 'twenty three units were built versus an estimated 650,000 model year 'twenty two units.

Speaker 6

Our marine revenues, which represents 24% of our Q3 2023 consolidated sales, decreased 24% are expected to be $205,000,000 on wholesale shipments that are estimated to have declined 23% in the quarter. We believe dealer inventory restocking reached are in equilibrium toward the end of the quarter and marine OEMs and dealers are acting in a very disciplined manner as they manage the slower part of the selling season with model year inventory mix that appears close to normal. As noted, we estimate marine wholesale unit shipments were down 23% in the quarter to approximately 35 are in the range of 40,000 units. On retail unit shipments that were up 1% to a range of 45,000 to 50,000 units. We estimate more than 20,000 units were taken out of inventory in the Q2 of 2023 and more than 10,000 units in the Q3 of 2023.

Speaker 6

Our estimated marine content per wholesale unit increased 3% on a TTM basis to $5,009 compared to the same period of 2022. We estimate overall dealer inventories are at approximately 20 to 22 weeks on hand at the end of the 3rd quarter, decreasing from an estimated quarter level of 23 to 25 weeks, historical averages weeks on hand approximated 35 to 40 weeks. Revenues in our housing market decreased 18% to $261,000,000 and represented 30% of our consolidated sales. Are participating in the business. The housing side of our business is primarily tied to manufactured housing, single and multifamily housing, with manufactured housing making up 56% of the total.

Speaker 6

MH estimated wholesale unit shipments were down 22% in quarter, while total residential housing starts for the 3rd quarter decreased 6% and single family starts increasing 7% and multifamily starts decreasing 28%. Our estimated MH content per unit increased 8% provide a call to $6,498 on a TTM basis compared to the same period in 2022 as a result of market share gains. Our team has continued to make consistent CPU gains as we collaborate with OEMs as they strive to exceed sustainability and energy efficiency guidelines. Manufactured homes continue to offer an accessible and cost effective solution compared to the site built homes, particularly in the face of the acute in the range of $1,000,000 of the affordable housing shortage we are experiencing today. Further, we believe our housing businesses have significant long term potential Given the structural and supply demand imbalances that continue to plug consumer searching for affordable housing alternatives.

Speaker 6

As noted, the overarching theme of higher interest rates is affecting both dealer floor plans costs and consumer monthly payments across our markets. We continue to be optimistic about the earning power of our business, especially given our past and present cost reduction initiatives and see interest rate stabilization as a potential

Speaker 1

tailwind. As we

Speaker 6

look at the opportunity landscape from new product introductions, market share gains and the scalability of our RV business to our highly engineered suite of products in our marine portfolio, industry, which includes boat design capabilities to our portfolio of aftermarket solutions we offer to a larger used boat market, We remain confident in our outdoor enthusiast business and their targeted future growth. We expect to continue to invest in these spaces and believe in the industry's long term health. Additionally, our teams are constantly modeling future scenarios in our markets, giving us the ability to react quickly to on our plans as markets and the economy dictate. Moving to our growth objectives, are participating in the process of evaluating acquisitions in our current pipeline, while adding potential targets for future consideration. These targets include businesses within our current end markets with similar product offerings, those that might be in adjacent markets and those that add new products and services to our portfolio.

Speaker 6

While we continue to pursue tuck in acquisitions, we also carefully consider larger acquisitions that align with our long term vision and strategic objectives. We have a track record of identifying and integrating accretive acquisitions and continue to have a full pipeline of potential targets. Any acquisitions we complete will operate within our brand forward go to market strategy. Are participating in the process of executing on our operations. We continue to invest in our automation and innovation and efforts as we further refine our operational in production processes.

Speaker 6

An example of these investments is our expanded use of robotic solutions through robots as a service, Which allows us to structure our capital spending more efficiently on targeted automation efforts, while mitigating operational risk. We were impressed with the results from the initial autonomous robotic cell and its capabilities to complete multiple surface treatments on composite parts. We launched the 1st standing cell application in 2023 and are now implementing robots as a service cell across multiple business units. We will continue to expand our scalability and operational efficiencies, including through ongoing efforts to seek out and develop new solutions for our broad range of manufacturing capabilities. Our customer focused brand led go to market strategy extends to customization and are in collaboration as we work in partnership with our valued customers to build innovative and compelling products and solutions to improve the end customers' As an example of this is the Harley Davidson audio powered by Rockford Fosgate Partnership.

Speaker 6

This partnership between 2 legendary brands cements Rockford as the leading provider of high performance branded audio for Harley Davidson enthusiasts. Our teams do a tremendous job of collaborative innovation and partnership with our customers, while offering high quality customization in full solutions product offering. As Andy noted, we are expanding our product innovation through Patrick's Advanced Products Evolution Group, are a team committed to enhancing the solutions we can offer to our valued customers. I'll now turn the call over to Matt, who will provide additional comments on our financial performance. Thanks, Jeff, and good

Speaker 7

morning, everybody. Our consolidated third quarter net sales decreased 22% are $246,000,000 to $866,000,000 driven by a 20% decrease in RV shipments, will participate in a 23% decrease in marine shipments and a 22% decrease in manufactured housing shipments. Are in the line with the operator. Gross margin increased 170 basis points to 23%, which was the result of our strategic diversification, acquisitions, call. At this time, all participants will be participating in the call.

Speaker 7

Investments in automation and continuous improvement and operational efficiencies. Are participating in the process of reviewing the business. Warehouse and delivery expenses declined $2,000,000 to $38,000,000 in Q3 2023, are participating in the call. Increasing 70 basis points as a percentage of sales due to lower revenue and partially due to acquisitions completed this year. SG and A expense declined $14,000,000 or 17 percent to $71,000,000 in the Q3 of 2023.

Speaker 7

SG and A increased 60 basis points as a percentage of sales on lower revenue. Additional factors included higher insurance, software and technology Operating income decreased $22,000,000 Our operating margin remained resilient, decreasing just 10 basis points to 8.2%, driven by the previously described factors. Net income decreased 33 percent to $40,000,000 which equates to $1.81 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA margin increased 130 basis points to 13.1% for the Q3 of 2023. Our overall effective tax rate was 27% for the Q3 compared to 24.1% in the prior year.

Speaker 7

We continue to estimate our overall effective tax rate for 2023 to be approximately 25% to 26%. Are participating. Looking at cash flows, cash provided by operations for the 1st 9 months of 2023 was approximately $294,000,000 are participating in the company's call. An increase of $64,000,000 or 28 percent compared to approximately $230,000,000 in the prior year's period. As Andy noted, our solid financial results coupled with our prudent balance sheet management have resulted in strong cash flow.

Speaker 7

This quarter, capital expenditures were $11,000,000 As Jeff noted, we continue to invest in our operations to drive innovation, efficiencies and long term value for our customers and stakeholders. We continue to expect CapEx to range from $65,000,000 to $70,000,000 in 2023. During the quarter, we generated operating cash flow of $115,000,000 are participating in the quarter of $105,000,000 For the trailing 12 month period, we generated $412,000,000 of free cash flow compared to $250,000,000 for the same period last year. We remain committed to our disciplined capital allocation strategy. At the end of the Q3, after paying down $112,000,000 on our debt, including $110,000,000 on our revolving credit facility, We had approximately $700,000,000 of total net liquidity, comprised of $17,000,000 of cash on hand and unused have capacity on our revolving credit facility of $683,000,000 Total net leverage was 2.5 times.

Speaker 7

We continue to see the tangible results of our cost, balance sheet and financial management. With no major debt maturities until 2027 and approximately $700,000,000 of liquidity, we have a solid financial foundation to capitalize on opportunities and successfully navigate current and future market conditions. We returned $10,000,000 in the form of dividends during the quarter. Will be opportunistic on share repurchases and have $84,000,000 left authorized under our current plan at the end of the Q3. Are participating in the market.

Speaker 7

Moving to our end market outlook, we continue to expect higher interest rates to negatively impact dealers' willingness to hold inventory during the Q4. As Jeff discussed earlier, RV retail registrations have exceeded wholesale shipments during the quarter and the year to date period, are in the range of $1,000,000 implying a significant reduction in the number of units on dealer lots. This has been the result of continued discipline by OEMs and dealers and positions the industry favorably for 2024. Based on recent trends, We currently estimate full year RV retail registrations will be down approximately 15% to 17%, implying retail registrations of approximately are participating in the range of 3 100 and 80 1,000 units. Assuming consistent dealer weeks on hand levels, as Jeff noted, This approximates based on our retail estimates full year 2023 RV wholesale unit shipments of 300,000 to 310,000 units, implying a decline of approximately 37% to 40% from 2022.

Speaker 7

For 2024, we currently estimate will be down 15% to 17%. We continue to expect our wholesale and retail unit shipments at 350,000 units. In our marine market, we estimate 2023 wholesale shipments will be down 15% to 17%. We continue to believe dealer inventories are calibrated. However, As noted, dealers are acting with an abundance of caution given higher floorplan costs as we head into the winter.

Speaker 7

Retail has outperformed our expectations and we currently estimate retail registrations will decline 5% to 10% for 2023. For 2024, we currently estimate marine retail and wholesale will be down 15%.

Speaker 3

Business. On the

Speaker 7

housing side of the business, we continue to expect MH wholesale shipments to be down 20% to 25% for 2023, With retail sales absorbing available wholesale production on a real time basis. In our residential housing end market, We expect 2023 new housing starts will be down 10% to 15%. We currently expect the housing market to be flat in 2024 And that MH will be up 10%. We estimate our full year 2023 operating margin will be between 7.5%

Speaker 5

are in the range

Speaker 7

of 7.8 percent and continue to expect to generate operating cash in excess of $400,000,000 this year as working capital aligns with revenues, implying free cash flow of $330,000,000 or more based on our CapEx estimates. That completes my remarks. We are now ready for questions.

Speaker 1

Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Scott Stember with ROTH MKM. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 1

Participants are answering questions.

Speaker 3

Yes, I forgot what the mute button was. Sorry about that. Could you guys talk about apparently a little bit of a stalemate going on with dealers and OEMs, whether it's pricing on looking for some help on floor plan. Could you just maybe talk about what you're hearing? Has there been any movement on that front On the order process and when would you expect that to start to break free a little bit?

Speaker 6

All participants. Yes, Scott, this is Jeff. Really coming out of open house, we didn't expect a lot of orders immediately from the open house, more of a So we've continued to see production levels pretty consistent through the end of Q3 into Q4. We will see some shutdowns around Thanksgiving and Christmas pretty traditional from what we've seen in the past. And we expect with the dealer inventory levels at the level that they are currently that we'll see some upside going into the Q1 based on their need to have product for the selling season.

Speaker 6

All participants I will tell you that the OEMs continue to remain disciplined with their production levels, which I think is are managing the inventories out in the field and putting them in a really good position as we move forward.

Speaker 3

Got it. And then on the aftermarket side of the business, maybe talk about how that performed in the quarter, mainly in Marina, I suppose, and off road vehicle and I'll just talk about the prospects for next year, particularly if we are going into some form of recession.

Speaker 4

Sure, Scott. This is Andy. I think that our aftermarket business was actually down just a little bit, which has been consistent with where it's been with where it's been for a lot of the year. That being said, the margin profile on that business for us is very strong and so it's performing a little bit better than our expectations as it relates to the margin, which is some of the benefit we've seen on that after are on the market side. So we're optimistic about it.

Speaker 4

I think especially as you look at trends that we would expect as it relates to discipline And where this financing environment is at from a purchase of new units, we certainly would expect to see the aftermarket play a more countercyclical call as it relates to the average user out there upgrading their unit with aftermarket products. So we're optimistic about it. It's held up from our perspective, it's been I should say it's been down a little bit, but held up from a margin perspective, which we feel really good about.

Speaker 3

All right. Just last question, a lot of news about one of your top RV customers starting to do or starting to bring some functions in house are becoming more vertically integrated. Can you talk about how that would affect Patrick and just from a bigger picture, what we can expect from a content

Speaker 4

Sure. I think that as we look at our product portfolio out there, Scott, We've got, as we talked about, a little bit of a good, better, best product offering. We certainly expect to continue to partner with our customers. All participants I like the innovation that we're seeing out there today just across the spectrum. And I think that's the push that we can get really excited about especially with our advanced product evolution group and working with those customers to be able to develop products are in partnership side by side with them.

Speaker 4

So we look at we have competition in all of our product categories and we expect to be competitive in the product categories that we're in. So, we still feel like we've got great partnerships with the OEMs in the space.

Speaker 3

Got it. That's all I have for now. I'll jump back into the queue.

Speaker 1

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Daniel Moore with CJS Securities. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 8

Thank you. Good morning. Thanks for all the color. Maybe shift gears for the margins, gross margins remarkably strong given current level of demand. You expect to maintain those levels as we look to Q4 and into maybe H1 fiscal 2024 or are you seeing any pricing pressure work its way back to the supply chain at this stage?

Speaker 4

Yes, Dan, this is Andy. I think as it relates to the margins, we expect a little bit of choppiness in Q4. It typically is one of the softer softer quarter seasonally for us and we would expect just a little bit of choppiness as it relates to that, but that's built into our model. I think as we look at 1H 2020 all participants are still feeling like our margin profile is solid. The investments that we've made in automation without question are paying off.

Speaker 4

Our team has done a fabulous job of managing the labor force. And we've also sized the businesses according to the revenue stream that we're are seeing today. So I think when we look across the spectrum in all of our businesses and we look at where the industries are at, We feel like we've modeled the business to that platform and can flex up or down if we need to, with the leverage ability going up for us will be solid. But I think as we look at our gross margins, a lot of the investments, the team has just done an absolutely fantastic job of managing the business, taking out costs, relying on the automation, to generate through put in efficiency and then continuous improvement initiatives that we've implemented across the spectrum continue to help drive those. So we're going to stay focused on that and the goal would be to continue to again drive efficiencies and throughput and then really be able to leverage when we see the markets pick up.

Speaker 8

Participants. Excellent. And obviously, great color on your outlooks for each of the verticals as we look into next year. In terms of just cadence, do you expect much of a difference, if any, in terms of shipments H1 to H2? Do you see things kind of slow starting out a little slower and then picking up in either of the 3 main businesses were relatively consistent participants are

Speaker 5

in the process of the year.

Speaker 4

I think what we expect is a more normal seasonality than we've seen in the past as it relates are in the range of $1,000,000,000. You know production and retail and I think when you kind of look at where inventory is at today, in the low, low level of weeks on hand, dealers being very, very thoughtful about the inventories that they're carrying. The OEs matched up to be able to produce, we would expect a more seasonal cadence. But again, like I said, I think we're balanced with what we see today as it relates to production levels and sized appropriately. So as we look at it, what I would tell you is, we're watching retail certainly, but with The balance and the calibration that we see in the field today between manufacturing, production and retail, we feel really good about the ability to flex across are

Speaker 8

welcome. Excellent. Last one, I'll jump out. It's free cash flow has been exceptional. Is there any more working capital left to unwind?

Speaker 8

Or should we expect to be more neutral going forward at least until demand starts to recover? Thank you.

Speaker 4

Yes, I think that from a working capital perspective, our team again has done an absolutely fantastic job of managing inventories in partnership with customers and I don't know that there's a ton of working capital to ring out. We do expect to be have over $400,000,000 of operating cash at the end of this year, which is really in line with where our expectations were at. In fact, I think as we look out into the future, One of the things that we're in a really advantageous position as it relates to the strength of our balance sheet and our liquidity is we're looking and saying, okay, If the manufacturing does go up, we want to make sure that we're positioned and we can be positioned with the appropriate levels of inventory when it does flex up. We're talking to our OEM partners today about production and where their expectations are to make sure that we're positioned to be able to flex up if we need to add some working capital. Again, I think across the platform, our team has done a fabulous job of managing working capital.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Mike Swartz with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 9

Participants. Hey, good morning, guys. Maybe just to start on the commentary around your outlook for the marine market for 20 24%. I think if I heard you right, you said you expect retail to be down 15%. I think that's one of the more bearish views I've heard and I think that would put us right on the cusp of kind of the depth Great recession demand levels.

Speaker 9

So maybe just a little color on maybe how you're thinking about the year in marine and maybe how you got to that number?

Speaker 4

Sure, Mike. This is Andy. I think as we look out, right now we feel again that production and retail are very well are kind of one for 1 and we're being cautious. As we noted, marine retail has been stronger than we expected. So I would tell you that we're being cautious in modeling our business around that number and we certainly think that there's some upside potential As you look at the numbers that are there, but we want to make sure that we're thoughtful.

Speaker 4

As I talked, our business is balanced as it relates to the revenue stream matched against our cost structure. And so as we look at marine right now, it's production levels that we're seeing tremendous discipline is what I would say in the space. So we're not concerned about over inventory or the ability to produce. We're just staying cautious participants are better than that. So we've got a cautious outlook, but the caution is just simply around where we're centered today And the ability to flex up very quickly if we need to.

Speaker 9

Okay. Okay. That's perfect. And then just on with We've all heard the stories of where model year 'twenty four pricing has gone in RV, in some instances down double digits In Towables, there's a lot of talk about the contenting to hit some of those price points. Maybe give us just a backdrop of what you're seeing and I guess how much risk do you think the decontending dynamic presents I'll open to Patrick in terms of your content loads going forward.

Speaker 6

Yes, Mike, this is Jeff. All participants. I think what we've really seen after the model change was not necessarily a lot of decontanting, all participants are offering or bringing in smaller floor plans, introductory floor plans and trying to hit that lower end of the market. We We've seen a little bit more of that in the production levels over the last couple of months, really kind of the end of the Q3 and into the Q4. So to that sense, it's not necessarily decontanting as much as not as much content in some of the units that are being built on the smaller range.

Speaker 6

From a Patrick perspective, I believe we're in pretty good shape with our content per unit, primarily because of the business we picked up in the market share we've been able to gain over the last 12 months. It's been pretty incredible what our team's done. They've gone out and really pushed hard in that area and we've seen significant growth in the range of about $150,000,000 over the last 12 months. So I I think that's going to really offset anything that is in the lower end units, but we in our normal standard units, we haven't seen a ton of decontending. So We feel pretty good about where we stand today.

Speaker 9

A clarification that $150,000,000 is something that you anticipate going are forward or that's something that's already been realized?

Speaker 6

Annualized. Okay,

Speaker 9

perfect. And just one more for me, if you will, just the typical breakout between M and A, share, price, and I think you said industry volume was off 22%, so that's easy.

Speaker 7

Yes. Hey, Mike. This is Matt Pilar. So the 22% revenue decrease that we saw in the quarter, as you mentioned, industry is down across our end markets about 21%. Our net organic impact is down 3% and then acquisitions had a positive 2% impact.

Speaker 7

And if you break down that organic impact, pricing is down 5% and pure organic growth is up 2%.

Speaker 9

Awesome. Thank you so much.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Noah Zatkin with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 10

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Most of my questions have been asked answered, but I'm just hoping you could provide some color on how you're thinking about M and A in the current environment and valuations. Thanks.

Operator

No, this is Andy. Yes,

Speaker 4

I think again as we talked about from a liquidity perspective and a leverage perspective, we feel really good about our positioning right now to be able to actively look at and evaluate acquisitions. Our pipeline continues to be full, both organically and we are And we are getting deal flow. Deal flow is actually slowed down from external participants, but the deals that we're are participating, which we are constantly doing on the organic side, continue to be there. And as we look at valuations, I would tell you that valuations are stable from our perspective, I think as we look at modeling where everybody where the disconnect today is at on a normalized run rate basis with valuation expectations predictions is really kind of just the gap that's there today. But as we look at our model and we look at where we're at and the businesses that are attractive to us, all participants We feel like we're in a really good position to be offensive if we want to here with the liquidity position that we've got and as well the leverage position.

Speaker 4

So we're going to take advantage of opportunities That pop up, but we are also actively cultivating acquisition targets as well. Thank

Speaker 1

you. Our next question is from the line of Craig Kennison with Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 11

All participants. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Many have been addressed already, but I wanted to circle back on content per unit came in a little above where we had anticipated, but I know it's an LTM metric. And I'm wondering, as you look into 2024, what's a reasonable expectation for content per unit in RV and Marine specifically?

Speaker 6

Yes, Craig, this is Jeff. We feel like into the Q4 and into the 1st part of the next year, our content per unit is going to remain relatively flat from where we are. There will be some pricing movement in a few areas, maybe down and some up, but certainly Some of the increased market share we've been able to gain is going to offset anything that we see in the pricing.

Speaker 11

And that flat is a comment relative to your Q3 experience?

Speaker 3

That's correct.

Speaker 11

Okay, great. Thanks. And then again looking at 2024, I know it's early, but just what are some of the puts and takes as you consider the margin profile of your business and if you can comment on whether labor rates Are at all impacted by some of the UAW contract or any other pressures that are facing that environment?

Speaker 4

Yes. Craig, I think as we look out into 'twenty four, again, we feel good about our cost structure participating with where we're at. We actively partner with our customers from a pricing perspective as commodities move up and down and work very well with them in partnership from my perspective. So as we look at those that component, the labor side of the business is very stable for us. We've got a great core group of labor, a talent out there that is doing a fabulous job that is flexible and nimble.

Speaker 4

So we feel good about that. I think as we just look at the model today And where we're stabilized and looking out in the future and positioned,

Operator

I think we look

Speaker 4

and say, okay, we're in a good spot. We can flex up very are in the range of $1,000,000 and if we need to take some more cost out, we certainly can do that and will do that very prudently. So overall, as we look at the cost structure and the puts and takes, I feel like we can continue to be very flexible and nimble with our business model and our team participants are just really good at that. And so I've been so impressed with what they've been able to do, and the way that they will be able to manage the business. It's been super invigorating from our perspective.

Speaker 4

So we feel like we can be flexible and nimble and flex all participants are at as we look at going forward, obviously there's macroeconomic concerns out there, but we are positioned very well to continue to flex.

Speaker 11

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Griffin Bryant with D. A. Davidson. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 12

Yes, thanks. Just one So in terms of recent hand dealer inventory for both Marine and RV, do you think this returns to its historical norm

Speaker 4

participants We're planning our business around the current weeks on hand levels, which we believe are obviously very low given the interest rate environment And we certainly appreciate the prudence that both OEMs and dealers are using today to minimize floorplan financing

Speaker 5

are in the line with us. So from our perspective,

Speaker 4

we're at a low level of weeks on hand lower than we would have anticipated, but It's been calibrated from our perspective. And so I think our modeling is centered around consistent weeks on hands. We're not planning anything up. If it does go up, then we would expect some restocking and we will certainly participate in Flex with that. But right now, we're building our model off of consistent weeks on

Speaker 1

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, I'll turn it over to Andy for closing remarks.

Speaker 4

I want to end the call by once again expressing my sincere gratitude to our talented team members who are the reason for our success. Are very pleased with our customers. Our dedication and commitment are instrumental to Patrick continuing to be a customer focused supplier that empowers enthusiasts on the road, on the water and at home. We will be participating in the resilience displayed by our team despite the wide range of market and industry changes we've seen in the past few years. This resilience gives us the confidence that we can navigate any challenges that come our way and we will continue to utilize our operational and financial levers appropriately to drive sustainable growth and deliver long term value to our shareholders.

Speaker 4

We thank everyone who has joined us on the call today.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect your line.

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