Valley National Bancorp Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 26, 2023

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Third Quarter 2023 Valley National Bancorp Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised.

Operator

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Travis Land, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and welcome to Valley's Q3 2023 earnings conference call. Presenting on behalf of Valley today are CEO, Ira Robbins President, Tom Iadanza and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Hagedorn. Before we begin, I would like to make everyone aware that our quarterly earnings release and supporting documents can be When discussing our results, we refer to non GAAP measures, which exclude certain items from reported results. Please refer to today's earnings release for reconciliations of these non GAAP measures. Additionally, I would like to highlight Slide 2 of our earnings presentation and I remind you that comments made during this call may contain forward looking statements relating to Valley National Bancorp and the banking industry.

Speaker 1

Valley encourages all participants With that, I'll turn the call over to Ira Robbins.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Travis. In the Q3 of 2023, Valley reported net income of $141,000,000 and earnings per share of $0.27 Exclusive of non core items, Adjusted net income and EPS were $136,000,000 $0.26 respectively. Our quarterly results were highlighted by organic capital growth, Sound asset quality metrics, improved core deposit flows and solid expense control. The current interest rate environment reflective of an inverted curve has challenged traditional banking models and we have not been insulated from these pressures. That said, while the duration of the current inversion has exceeded original expectations and is anticipated to continue for the foreseeable future, We do not intend to change our foundational business model.

Speaker 2

Our net interest income declined at a much lower pace than in recent quarters, and we believe that NAI is near the bottom of its decline all else equal. While the external environment remains fluid, Our focus on executing our strategic initiatives remains steadfast. One of our strategic efforts over the last few years has been to transform our core operating environment To our flexibility in integrating unique delivery channels, enhancing FinTech integrations and positioning the bank for scalability without the traditional technology expense hurdles. I'm pleased to report that during the 1st weekend of October, Our team worked tirelessly to complete the transformational conversion of our core operating system. This was a massive undertaking, which required months of planning, Development and testing.

Speaker 2

Vale is now operating on a single system with bespoke delivery channels and I couldn't be prouder of our disciplined ability to execute on this project, which I reiterate was done in the face of an extremely challenging operating environment. This technology conversion is a natural progression of a cultural evolution that has occurred over the last few years. We have collectively developed a growth oriented mindset, which has been evident in our recent financial results. To support this mindset, we continuously strengthen and develop our capabilities to bring us more in line Our bankers now have a more robust infrastructure and we expect to see significant opportunities to leverage these new technologies and drive additional growth as the environment normalizes. Our successful conversion was yet another example of our disciplined and proven ability to execute.

Speaker 2

As we enter 2024, we anticipate generating both expense efficiencies and revenue scale resulting from our Common Core platform. As we have moved to a cloud based infrastructure, we're not burdened with the massive hardware costs that are simply associated with type of technology investments. We are more nimble today than we were a month ago and the opportunities ahead of us remain significant. With that, I will turn the call over to Tom and Mike to

Speaker 3

Thank you, Ira. Slide 4 illustrates approximately $300,000,000 of total deposit growth During the quarter, we experienced strong growth in interest bearing transaction accounts and retail CDs, which offset non interest bearing deposit declines and indirect CD maturities. The pace of non interest bearing deposit runoff has flowed, but mix shift to interest bearing products As continued to weigh in our total deposit costs. Slide 5 provides more detail On the continued diversity of our deposit portfolio. During the quarter, we benefited from stability in our branch based deposits And strong growth in our specialized verticals.

Speaker 3

Inflows were particularly strong in our national deposits business and through our online channel. These dynamics enabled us to pay off some maturing indirect CDs during the quarter. We also continued to reduce our uninsured deposit exposure and has significant coverage with cash and high quality liquidity. Slide 6 further illustrates the diversity and granularity of our deposit base. No single commercial industry Our government portfolio remains diversified across our footprint and is fully collateralized relative to state collateral requirements.

Speaker 3

Now turning to Slide 7, You can see an overview of our loan growth and portfolio composition. Annualized loan growth on a year to date basis Has slowed consistently as the year has progressed. Originations declined meaningfully during the quarter as we require wider spreads on new loans. These efforts continue to result in higher new origination yields. Slide 8 breaks down the diversity of our commercial real estate portfolio by collateral type and geography.

Speaker 3

As a reminder, we have an extremely granular loan portfolio with an average loan size of roughly $5,000,000 From a metric perspective, our weighted average LTV remains at 58%. As interest rates have increased, Net service coverage ratios have declined somewhat to 1.7 times. We continue to We monitor pools of maturing and resetting loans and believe that our borrowers are well positioned to absorb the pass through of higher rates. This reflects consistent underwriting discipline at conservative cap rates and significant stress testing efforts at origination. The following slide illustrates the continued strong metrics and granular composition of our diverse office portfolio.

Speaker 3

With that, I will turn the call over to Mike Hagedorn to provide additional insight on the quarter's financials.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Tom. Slide 10 illustrates Valley's recent quarterly net interest income and margin trends. The sequential $7,000,000 decline in net interest income was less than half of the reduction experienced in the Q2 of the year. While asset yields continue to improve, continued pricing competition and mix shift drove funding costs higher. On the Q2 call, we indicated that we were observing signs of net interest income stabilization.

Speaker 4

During the quarter, monthly net interest income was generally stable and higher than the June level. Our fully tax equivalent net interest margin declined a modest 3 basis points on a linked quarter basis versus 22 basis points in the Q2 of 2023 and has been generally stable over the last few months. All else equal, We expect 4th quarter net interest income to be relatively in line with the 3rd quarter level. By the end of the quarter, our liquidity position has been effectively normalized. Absent abnormal environmental factors, we expect cash to remain generally consistent with 3rd quarter levels.

Speaker 4

Moving to Slide 11, we generated nearly $59,000,000 of non interest income for the quarter as compared to $60,000,000 in the second quarter. Exclusive of approximately $6,000,000 of non core items, Adjusted non interest income was closer to $52,000,000 for the quarter. The decline was primarily related to lower capital markets fees associated with our slower loan growth. Other business lines were generally stable. On Slide 12, you can see that our non interest expenses were approximately $267,000,000 for the quarter or approximately $264,000,000 on an adjusted basis.

Speaker 4

Adjusted expenses declined from the prior quarter despite an increase in certain technology costs, partially associated with our successful core conversion. Specifically, we began to see the benefits of recent headcount reductions About midway through the quarter, FDIC assessment costs and outside consulting fees also declined on a sequential basis. We continue to execute on previously identified efforts to slow future expense growth. Legacy Valley and LiUmi have now joined on a common core. After a certain adjustment period, we expect the core conversion to result In the next wave of previously announced cost savings early in the New Year.

Speaker 4

To reiterate, our focus is on controlling expenses in the face of revenue pressures, which have resulted from the inverted yield curve. Turning to Slide 13, you can see our asset quality trends for the last 5 quarters. Non accrual loans have been effectively flat for the last three quarters. Early stage delinquencies ticked up during the quarter, but remained well below the average level of the last 12 months. 3rd quarter net charge offs declined somewhat from recent levels.

Speaker 4

On Slide 14, you can see that tangible book value increased Approximately 1.4% for the quarter and is up nearly 10% from a year ago. Our balance sheet positioning has enabled us to avoid the significant Challenges that other peers have faced related to the OCI impact associated with available for sale securities. We manage all risk areas prudently and are proud in our ability to insulate tangible capital from this headwind. Tangible common equity to tangible assets increased to 7.4% during the quarter as a result of our normalized cash position. As loan growth slowed, our risk based regulatory capital ratios have increased between 16 18 basis points as compared to the Q2 of 2023.

Speaker 4

We continue to prioritize organic capital growth in this challenging environment and are prudently managing our balance sheet to incrementally strengthen our position. With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator to begin Q and A.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct a question and answer session. Please standby while we compile the Q and A roster. Our first question comes from Frank Schiraldi with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Good morning.

Speaker 6

Just on the trajectory of NIINIM, I mean, you talked about The hopeful trough here. In a higher for longer scenario, just thinking out into 2024, do you think there's Some stabilization in NIM and then you get a reversal from there, so you get a little bit of a trajectory upwards? Or is it more sort of like And higher for longer sort of bouncing along the bottom for a period of time. Just wondering your general thoughts there.

Speaker 5

Hi, Frank. It's Mike. I think that when you look at the trajectory of NIM in 2023, As we said in our prepared remarks, we've been in that mid-290s to low-290s range since April. And when you look at the cost of deposits, You'll notice that from Q4 to Q1, they were up 60 basis points. From Q1 of 'twenty three to Q2 of 'twenty three, they were up 49, and they were up 49 in 3rd quarter as well.

Speaker 5

So we're starting to see a normalization both in the cost, but also in the NIM. In a Higher

Speaker 4

for longer rate environment, I think

Speaker 5

a couple of things would happen that would, all things being equal, result in a slightly higher NII and slightly higher NIM. The first of those and it's been true for all of 2023, the biggest driver of the compression on our NIM has the rotation out of non interest bearing and into interest bearing product. So I would think in a higher for longer environment, there is some place, some equilibrium that we 2nd, you got to keep in mind that we've had a very large liquidity build, both at the end of the first quarter and throughout the 2nd quarter as a result of all the chaos that was created with the bank failures earlier this year, that is completely off our balance sheet as of ninethirty. And then when you go forward and you kind of think about deposits stabilizing, I think the thing that will drive at least in our Current modeling, the thing that will drive NIM expansion and NII increases is going to be the repricing on our assets, earning assets, but more And as we look at our modeling, we know what our fixed rate book repricing is along with the repricing opportunities that we have throughout 2024 in the adjustable rate book, so we would expect that to be the main driver of a NIM expansion next year.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. Appreciate all the color, Mike. And then just as a follow-up to that, in terms of the brokered balances, It looks like you guys have had some really good success raising customer deposits, and so you've let these roll off. I guess, do you expect that to continue? And if so, as you look out The maturization table, when do you expect or how quickly do you expect brokered balances to kind of Paul here.

Speaker 5

Yes. So our current thinking and our current modeling is that we will see further reduction in our brokered balances and that's certainly one of our goals. But I want to make sure everybody understands how we've been using broker. We've been using broker throughout 2023 To fill the gaps, especially earlier in the year, we had much higher loan growth to fill the gaps on the balance sheet expansion, While also paying very close attention that we're not repricing the back book of our deposit our core deposit base. And the second thing that we've done is we've used that in those stop GAAP measures, we've used both duration and rate in that portfolio To help manage our NIM and NII.

Speaker 5

And so I while I know they have a bad connotation sometimes, They've been very effective and the market has been excellent for us to use that in certain times and in certain circumstances and very effectively.

Speaker 6

And just lastly on that front, in terms of As you look at the indirect market versus what you're able to get directly from customers here, is there much of a difference in terms of Pricing in terms of new brokered versus new direct?

Speaker 5

Yes. The inversion of the curve probably is the biggest impact on that. If you're talking about exactly the same duration, I would say the incremental cost of deposits is Fairly close to one another. So there may be 10 basis point difference, but it's not that remarkably different. So I think, again, I go back to my previous comments as you want to use that for both rate and duration.

Speaker 5

But in the case that you're asking about, you probably want to manage

Speaker 7

Frank, this is Zarek. I would just add to that. When we think about the incremental piece of deposits, as Mike alluded to earlier, There was significant demand for us to put some of those incremental deposits on based on the loan growth we were seeing and that obviously ratcheted up the incremental cost of some of these deposits. As we now scale back some of the loan growth, the demand for those broker deposits and higher cost CDs have actually come a bit And we're still originating core deposits. I think as we spoke about last time on the call, the overall deposit Originations for this quarter were around 3.70%, 3.80% ish.

Speaker 7

So on a blended basis, marginal deposits are coming in much cheaper

Speaker 6

Great. Okay. I appreciate all the color guys. Thanks.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Matthew Breese with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning, everybody.

Speaker 8

Maybe just sticking with the NIM, Can you provide what the monthly NIM was across the quarter? And is The September NIM, a good launch point into 4th quarter about where it could shake out for the 4th quarter. And Matt, this is Travis. Just on a monthly basis, July was 2.91 August, 2.92 September, 2.91.

Speaker 1

So when we say it was pretty stable throughout the quarter, I mean, we really mean it. So,

Speaker 8

you can use September and the quarter with the same number. But yes, it's a good launch point. Thank you. And then I was hoping also for some additional color on near term loan growth outlook And maybe perhaps when you would feel comfortable reaccelerating loan growth.

Speaker 3

Hey, Matt, it's Tom. Yes, the loan growth, the fact is slowing it down really customer related, the uncertainty of the rate market as well as widening spreads Has slowed down their activity. We still service those valued real estate customers when they need it, and we continue to grow That portfolio just had a much slower base. I just want to point out our C and I portfolio has grown 12% Over the last year, so our focus is really just on that relationship driven C and I piece. We're still getting higher percent growth in the Florida market And stable growth here in the Northeast.

Speaker 3

I would expect that growth in the 4th quarter to be in a similar fashion to the 3rd quarter We'll be in that range of 7% to 9% for the year.

Speaker 8

Great. Okay. And then Ira, Just acknowledging yours and Vale's relationship with Bank of Layumi. And first, just wishing everybody on your end and on Layumi's end the best They deal with the horrific events over in Israel. In light of that, I was curious if events overseas will have And because of the partnership, any impact on your bank balance sheet or private client group in any way.

Speaker 7

Thank you very much. I appreciate that. And for all of our employees and clients, it's been a very difficult time. That said, So Banco Luna, obviously, is a significant partner for us on the participation side. We haven't seen any interruption as of yet.

Speaker 7

We continue to anticipate business as usual. So while it's definitely difficult for a lot of people, We still think we're going to continue to move forward and not be impacted by it.

Speaker 3

Yes. Hey, Matt, it's Tom. Just kind of give you a little context here. The only direct loan exposure we have is to high net worth U. S.

Speaker 3

Citizens and it's secured by State of Israel bonds and it's a very, very Otherwise, we help finance domestic subsidiaries of Israeli companies, but it's all done Here in the U. S.-based entities, the back and forth and flow of business slowed down really based on natural economic conditions, But it's business as usual and working with them on partnered transactions.

Speaker 8

Got it. Okay. And then could you give us some update as to where we are in the previously mentioned cost saving plan? I believe it was like $40,000,000 identified. Last we spoke, it was expected to progress over 4 quarters.

Speaker 8

How is execution matching up versus planning? And is there anything else you've uncovered As you've kind of looked into this, in terms of additional cost saves.

Speaker 1

Yes, Matt, it's Travis. In the quarter, I'd say you probably got 20% to 25% of On an annualized basis, what we had anticipated. I don't expect much incrementally

Speaker 8

in the Q4. Post conversion, we're keeping There's 4 teams stacked up and running, but then as

Speaker 1

we get into the first half

Speaker 8

of twenty twenty four, I

Speaker 1

think that's where you get the next wave, Which will come from a combination of 3rd party vendors and some

Speaker 8

additional resource efficiencies. So I don't anticipate much in the Q4. But again, once

Speaker 1

you get to the first half of twenty twenty four, I think that's where you see the bulk of what's We are still looking obviously post conversion at opportunities that we hadn't previously identified.

Speaker 8

And so we'll continue to dig there. And we should be thinking of this expense plan as one that slows down the natural pickup in expenses versus one that Dollar for dollar lowers the run rate, correct?

Speaker 1

Yes, that's correct. So I mean,

Speaker 8

if you think and this is just high level

Speaker 1

and I don't mean for these to be numbers to take away, but Historically, we've run kind of high single digits from an operating expense growth perspective as a growth company. There are obviously headwinds from an inflation perspective, perspective on top of that and then we're just trying to work our way back into kind of that mid single digit expense growth level based on

Speaker 8

Great. Last one for me is just, I I don't know if you have one or not, but could you just comment if you do on syndicated loan exposure? What's the size of that book? How is it performing? Any other metrics we should be aware of there?

Speaker 3

Yes. Sure, Matt. It's Tom again. The portfolio is about $1,400,000,000 It's spread over a number We're not HLT lenders. We don't really have leverage transactions in there.

Speaker 3

They're mostly clause deals with a small group of banks, Direct contact relationships with any of the borrowers in the rolling market.

Speaker 8

Perfect. I appreciate it. That's all I had. Thank you.

Speaker 3

And we lead a lot of those transactions also. We're not a participant. We tend to be the lead bank at over

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Perito with KBW. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 5

Good morning.

Speaker 9

I apologize. I got on a couple of minutes late. So if You guys addressed this already. I apologize for asking again. But just taking into context all the commentary you guys have given around NII and the expense plan kind of execution.

Speaker 9

Is it fair for us to be thinking about the Q3 of 2023 as Probably the peak in the efficiency ratio here. And are you guys, at this point, able to provide any kind of Context around the type of year on year improvement you're hoping the expense plan can drive assuming your NII projections kind of play out as you expect them today?

Speaker 5

So I don't think there's any bank CFO that would say that Q3 would tend to be their peak. I think Q4 Tends to be the peak for a lot of reasons, right? You have year end expenses that get pushed through. There's some bonus Sometimes in the Q4, they might drive costs up. So I wouldn't necessarily agree with that it's Q3, but I would point you back to Travis' comments right before that.

Speaker 5

If it's Q4, that's actually the peak. Again, in the first half of twenty twenty four, we expect to realize the vast majority, the remainder and the vast majority of our previously announced cost savings initiatives, which in turn would then drive down our efficiency ratio.

Speaker 9

Got it. That's helpful. And then just a couple more quick ones on, I think the kind of New York, New Jersey area credit commercial real estate dynamics, we probably beat the dead horse on that For quite some time now, but just curious if you guys can maybe provide some context about updated demographics and trends you're seeing In the Florida and Alabama market, I mean, are there similar kind of supply and demand dynamics? Is there still kind of inflow of population growth? And just wondering kind of what The demographics are down there more recently.

Speaker 3

Yes, sure, Michael. This is Tom. Yes, The impacts of slowing in higher interest rates are affecting them also. The metrics on the transactions We do aren't any different. They're below 60% loan to value, usually 1.6% or 7% debt service coverage.

Speaker 3

So we're still generating transactions with those similar metrics. We are seeing continued growth in those markets. The population migration has slowed, but there's still migration into that Florida market. Our consumer business is Strong down there, probably half of what it was in the earlier part of this year. It's still a growth marker for us in all cases, But I'll continue to point out we underwrite very conservatively in all markets.

Speaker 3

We have floors on our cap rates in all markets. We track those cap rates. We're more suburban than urban. We're not big players in the Miami market. We're more spread around The 6 or 7 other major areas of Florida.

Speaker 9

Thanks, Todd. Really helpful. And then just the last one for me. Just once again, kind of taking into context all your other commentary, is it fair For us to be thinking about kind of the asset base to be pretty stable here for the next several quarters and then possibly some lift beyond that assuming the environment is Permitting of kind of growth reaccelerating, is that similar to how you guys are budgeting it? Or is there any kind of anything that you would point to that could make a difference?

Speaker 1

I think you have it generally right, Mike. I mean,

Speaker 8

I think end of Q3, our cash position was normalized. I think Tom referenced the growth that we anticipate in the Q4 and then kind of picking up maybe somewhat in 2024, but I don't think there's any type of significant other changes that you would see on the balance sheet.

Speaker 9

Very good. Thank you, guys. I appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hey, thanks. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 7

Good morning, John.

Speaker 10

Maybe a question for you, Mike. Slide 11, you show the fee income numbers in Capital Markets being down, and you tied it to loan growth. What kind of expectations should we have for Capital Markets? And then also curious if there's any kind of expense offset how much bottom line impact there is to lower capital markets fees?

Speaker 3

Yes. Hey, John, it's Tom. Yes, the capital markets for us has really been driven by gain on sale in the consumer ready space as well as swaps in the commercial space. We expect that to be flat going forward.

Speaker 5

We don't expect any lift there.

Speaker 10

Okay.

Speaker 3

We have other avenues here. We have the tax advisory business. We get a slight uptick in the 4th quarter To get things closed by year end, we continue to build out our FX to trade, which shows progress quarter to quarter, but we're expecting flat into next

Speaker 5

Okay. Okay. Good.

Speaker 10

Credit looks great, but some of the accruing past dues are up sequentially. Anything to note there? Anything that you're thinking about there that we should be aware of?

Speaker 3

No, no. I'm looking at it's really just coming out of the consumer and resi bucket. On the consumer side, it's primarily our cash The value of life insurance business, it's a matter of liquidating and collecting on there. So that's not going to be problematic from any potential loss standpoint. On the resi side, I just want to point out our 2Q levels were abnormally low.

Speaker 3

We are still below where we were a year ago at this point. We're about 99,000,000 The Q3 of 'twenty two were $79,000,000 in the Q3 of 'twenty three. So we're really gravitating to more normal levels. So no, we don't anticipate any problems.

Speaker 10

Okay, good. And then, Mike, you referenced Slide 4, that upper right chart with the deposit cost increases. And what do you think that looks like in a quarter or 2? I mean that you referenced the 49 and 49 for the last two quarters, but is that curve bending at all from the 49?

Speaker 5

If it's Expanding its ever so slide, I think you'll see the real bend inflection point happen early next year, but you still see some migration. It's slowed considerably, but you We'll see some migration from non interest bearing into interest bearing. From an incremental next dollar cost of Deposit funding and more broadly even liability funding, that has definitely stabilized in that mid-five ish range.

Speaker 10

Okay. All right. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Manan Ghazalia with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning. Hey.

Speaker 11

You spoke about getting high yields On the originations, and that fixed rate loan repricing will be one of the main drivers of NIM expansion from here. Can you give us some more color on what level of loans are repricing What level of loans are repricing at over the currently? And if you could size the amount of fixed rate loans that are coming due over the next year or so?

Speaker 3

Yes. It's Tom here. To give you some context, we repriced about $1,800,000,000 of loans for the 1st 9 months This year, the spread, it really depends on asset class, but the spreads are in the mid-350 around the 3.50 or so range. We expect that to continue. Looking forward, there is probably another $600,000,000 on repriced over the next 6 months.

Speaker 3

We expect those spreads to be the same. There's also a lot of renewing loans, loans that will mature. So it tends to be in that $1,000,000,000 So range over the next 6 months in total. Yes, I

Speaker 1

think that number is a little bit overstated, right? So we have a little bit understated, excuse me. So we have a $20,000,000,000 fixed rate portfolio, average life has extended to about 5 years. So if

Speaker 8

you do the math, I

Speaker 1

mean, just assuming all else equal, You'll get about $4,000,000,000 a year of fixed rate loans that come due and would ultimately reprice higher.

Speaker 7

And I think the one other thing, if you look at Maybe the Slide 7, you can look at the credit spreads, right? So if you go back to just 3 quarter of 'twenty two, When you look at where the new origination yield was versus where the index was, you're sitting around a 200 basis point spread. If you do the same math Just today, you're seeing about 2 70 basis points spread. So new originations are coming on definitely at a higher spread. And as Travis and Tom both alluded to, The repricing is probably going to come on at 300 to 400 basis points above where current rates are today on those.

Speaker 7

So there's a significant pickup when you think about

Speaker 5

This is Mike. I'll just add to what Ira said. So the simple average New loan originations in the 2nd quarter was 7.38% and for the 3rd quarter it was 7.89%. And the last month, September in that quarter finished just over 8%. So clearly, we're seeing re pricing on new loan originations, both from the spread Increases that both Ira and Tom mentioned and then also just because of the discipline that we have around here to make sure that we're getting paid for the risk we're taking.

Speaker 7

And can I just one, Bobby? I think this is an important piece, right, when we think about sort of our overall portfolio and how we manage the balance sheet. Obviously, based on sort of the sensitivity that we have, there was a decline in the NIM maybe earlier than what some of our peers were, but we do have A significant amount of tailwind coming from the assets that are going to be priced. So once we get into a more stable environment, whether it is higher for longer Or just stable from where we are today. There is that tailwind that's going to come from a significant amount of assets, and I think that will be a significant positive for us.

Speaker 11

That's very helpful. And maybe just on the flip side, on the funding side, The 3.60 or so pricing that you mentioned that deposits are coming on it right now, would you be able to provide a breakdown between CDs and savings accounts and what those are coming on at right now. And also if there is any update to your Through the cycle deposit data guide of around mid-50s?

Speaker 5

So on the regular savings accounts, you're probably in the mid-three ish type category, but we also have a high yield savings account out there in our direct channel, which is in the mid fives, maybe actually low fives. And while we don't have a new CD special, we haven't had a new one for a while. We're retaining anywhere from about 92% up of all maturing CDs. So I think that when you think as I said earlier, when I talked about the incremental cost of the next dollar of funding, it's going to be in that mid to low 5 range. But you got to realize that it's in certain pockets within our deposit pricing where we've had some growth that are a

Speaker 7

little more competitive. And that's just for that incremental CD that's coming on. I think the bigger piece is, we had our strongest quarter to date of new account opening. So I know you're seeing a mix shift still continuing at average coming out of the non interest bearing. The number of accounts in non interest bearing continue to to escalate significantly.

Speaker 7

And we were able to grow both consumer and commercial. And just as an example, in the month of September, It was a blended commercial that came on with that rate of $2.48 for overall deposit base. So while Mike is correct in looking at some of those CDs and what the Specials are, keep in mind, we're still originating and opening core accounts in this organization like we haven't ever historically before.

Speaker 8

And that

Speaker 7

will have continue to have a positive effect on how we think about what those marginal funding costs are. So the marginal funding costs that we saw of 3.60 G370 ish for the quarter on that blend is something we anticipate to continue assuming interest rates stay at their current levels.

Speaker 11

Great. And the through the cycle deposit beta of mid-50s, any update on that?

Speaker 8

I mean, we're Our through the cycle estimate was for the Q4 of 'twenty three year to

Speaker 5

the Q3 of 'twenty

Speaker 8

three. We're in the mid-50s.

Speaker 1

So It's likely that we'll end up above that, but that's factored into all the commentary that we've already given about stable NII in

Speaker 8

the near term and opportunities to expand NII as we

Operator

Our next question comes from Steve Moss with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Good morning, Steve. Maybe just on credit here and just The dynamic of fixed rate loans repricing, just curious what you all are seeing for the impact on debt service coverage ratios and What's the dynamic of how many clients have to put up additional cash to support a loan or a project?

Speaker 3

Yes. Sure, Steve. It's Tom. As I mentioned earlier, we repriced in 2023 or reset the rate in 2023 On $1,800,000,000 of our loans, we did not have to modify the contractual payment terms on any of them. They just reset flow through with continued P and I payments.

Speaker 3

No cash upfront to customers that needed. I want to point out Our upfront underwriting underwrites more conservatively, typically a 1.6%, 1.7% average debt service coverage, A 60% LTV, so that creates cushion in our upfront analysis.

Speaker 5

Okay. But just given that rates have moved up Quite a bit here in the last month or 2. You still expect that dynamic to play out into 2024?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, I Mentioned earlier, I think there's another $600,000,000 that will reset over the next 6 months. We do a forward analysis of this. We don't expect any different results or modifications based on that analysis today. Maybe just highlighting what Tom said, and he said it Twice now

Speaker 7

and I just want to make sure everyone is hearing what he said. We did $1,800,000 and now one client had to come and bring additional equity into it. They reset us to what they were. And I think that's something significant when we look at how we underwrite loans day 1, how we think about resetting these loans and the capacity of our And I think that's a big distinction versus what you're seeing at other organizations today.

Speaker 5

Great. I appreciate all the color. And then just in terms of as we think about the outlook going forward here, Just curious, Ira, I know you said you're focused on organic growth and internally, but Are you seeing more M and A opportunities? Or has any thought process changed or just given the more volatile macro environment?

Speaker 1

On the back end of

Speaker 7

what we're seeing with regards to the curve, there's going to be definitely a lot more opportunities based on some of the challenges that the events have. That said, I think we've been very diligent and disciplined around our tangible book value. And to have a deal work in this environment becomes very, very Challenging, so some of the economics need to change. If you go back to the tangible book value we had, threethirty of 2018, which was the Q1 that this management team took over, we were sitting at $5.64 We're sitting at $8.63 which is pretty much $3 of incremental tangible book value. When you add in the dividends that we paid out $2.86 during that same period.

Speaker 7

We have effectively doubled the tangible book value in the 5.5 year period. And I think that's something that this management team is very, very proud of. We want to make sure as we think about potential acquisitions as we move forward that we're not denigrating that kind of track record.

Speaker 5

Okay, great. Thank you very much. Appreciate the color. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Matthew Breese with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey, good afternoon. Just one follow-up M and A question. Obviously, the intensity of the events from March have subsided, but Doesn't feel like we're quite out of the woods yet. Just wanted to make sure that when we talk about whole bank M and A versus organic growth, Ira, I would love your thoughts on FDIC assisted deals or if that were to still come about, would that be something you're interested in?

Speaker 7

I think we've been an active player in FDIC deals before, but have to make economic and most strategic sense for us. And I think those are still two variables that are important to us as we think about those as potential avenues for Growth. So that said, there is tremendous internal opportunities that we have today as we focused organically on, like I mentioned earlier, Change in the core here is something that's been significant to us. The growth that we're seeing in C and I has been phenomenal here. If you look at the deposit page, we're up to $8,700,000,000 Differentiated specialized deposits today, I think that has been significant for us.

Speaker 7

And there's A lot of opportunities still for organic there. So while I think there's definitely opportunities we should look at it, there is something from

Speaker 2

an FDIC. That said, I couldn't be

Speaker 7

more excited about what we're doing here organically and what these outcomes could potentially look like for us.

Speaker 8

Got it. Well, I appreciate taking my follow-up. Thank you, guys.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd now like

Speaker 7

Thank you. And I just want to thank everyone for taking the time to listen to our call today.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Valley National Bancorp Q3 2023
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