Tempur Sealy International Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 2, 2023

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Tempur Sealy's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand in the race.

Operator

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Aubrey Moore, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in today's call. Joining me today are Scott Thompson, Chairman, President and CEO and Bhaskar Rao, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This call includes forward looking statements that are subject to the Safe Harbor provisions of Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward looking statements involve uncertainties and Actual results may differ materially due to a variety of factors that could adversely affect the company's business.

Speaker 1

These factors Are discussed in the company's SEC filings, including its annual reports on Form 10 ks and quarterly reports on Form 10 Q. Any forward looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it was made. The company undertakes no obligations to update any forward looking statements. This morning's commentary will include non GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of the non GAAP financial information can be found in the accompanying press release, which is posted on the company's investor website at investor.

Speaker 1

Temperssealy.com and filed with the SEC. Our comments will supplement the detailed information provided in the press release. And now with that introduction, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Scott.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Aubrey. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our 2023 Q3 earnings call. I'll start by sharing some highlights from our Q3 performance and then Bhaskar will review our financial performance in more detail. After that, I will provide an update on a proposed acquisition of Mattress Firm before opening up the call for Q and A. Today, we are reporting the 3rd best third quarter sales and EPS in the company's history.

Speaker 2

For the Q3 of 2023, we reported net sales of approximately 1,300,000,000 And adjusted EPS of $0.77 Our results are approximately consistent with the Q3 of last year, despite a more challenging macroeconomic operating background. The U. S. Betting industry As a whole, underperformed our expectations, with estimated volume down low double digits in the quarter. We mitigated the impact of the softer than expected U.

Speaker 2

S. Market with solid company performance that exceeded our expectations on both relative market performance and year over year gross margin expansion. Internationally, the bedding industry and our operations performed in line with our expectations. Overall, despite down markets and the disruption of a major cybersecurity incident In the Q3, our strong relative performance and cash flow generation demonstrate strong strength of our brands, Operations and team, we believe Tempur Sealy is well positioned for continued success. Turning to highlights for the quarter.

Speaker 2

First, our industry leading brands and products continue to resonate With the U. S. Consumer driving our strong performance relative to the broader market, all of our new Tempur products and supporting advertising initiatives are strengthening Tempur's appeal to the premium, wellness minded consumer. The incremental cooling and comfort innovation of our new lineup of Breeze mattresses generated robust retail advocacy And favorable mix in the quarter compared to the prior year. The lumbar feature, acoustic massage, The wake up and wind down technologies in our new smart base lineup continue to strengthen the value proposition of our adjustable offering driving improvement in attachment rates year over year.

Speaker 2

The innovations drove a 5% increase And Tempur Mattress and Foundation ASP in the 3rd quarter. Looking ahead to 2024, We expect to complete the full refresh of our U. S. Tempur portfolio by introducing our next generation of Adapt products. We expect strong returns on investments in our new products for years to come.

Speaker 2

Over the quarter, we continued to support our new Tempur products and the long term health of our Tempur brand With continued investments in national and digital Tempur Pedic advertising, these marketing investments support very solid e commerce performance and drove an increase in U. S. Tempur search interest year over year. Our strategic investment in product, distribution And marketing also continued to drive strong performance and expand brand awareness of Stearns and Foster in the U. S.

Speaker 2

Market. We completed the rollout of our all new Sterling and Foster mattress collection earlier this year. We continue to see these new products Connecting with the premium traditional Innerspring consumer, driving sales growth year over year. The consumer centric innovation, elevated design, enhanced step up opportunities are resonating with premium innerspring customers. We're thrilled that our high end products are performing well and the ASP of Stearns and Foster products is up double digit from last year.

Speaker 2

Additionally, Stearns and Foster's search interest and e commerce traffic were up 60% this year. Clearly, our multi year strategy for Stearns and Foster is working well for us and our retailers. 2nd highlight, our international operation is performing well and driving solid sales growth amid the current macro backdrop. We have successfully launched our new international Tempur lineup in over 90 markets worldwide, Completing the rollout in nearly all the key markets in Europe and Asia. The launch is on track Will be substantially completed before the end of the year.

Speaker 2

The new products are being well received. Additionally, Dreams, Our U. K. Retail operation is also performing well in both sales, outperforming versus the broader market Ann has record customer satisfaction. This quarter performance demonstrates the strength Our international strategy and team highlighting the long term opportunity for the international operations.

Speaker 2

3rd, we achieved significant consolidated gross margin expansion year over year After multiple years of COVID overhanging, Rapid inflation, macroeconomic disruption pressured margins worldwide. We're pleased to report 340 basis point improvement in consolidated adjusted gross margin year over year. Thanks to the successful management of commodity fluctuations, Improved supplier contracts and operational improvements. This is a significant step towards driving profitability, The first driver of our gross margin improvement is our ability to pass on pricing To offset commodity inflation, as you may recall, we experienced approximately 400 basis points of margin compression Between 2020 2022, the commodity prices increased at a historical pace. Now that pricing changes have been implemented, the commodity prices have started to normalize, you can see the positive results And are reported financial statements.

Speaker 2

Additionally, we're optimistic that our scale in the market and our new product innovations The second driver of gross margin improvement It is operational efficiencies. In 2022, we invested approximately $80,000,000 above normal operating levels to ensure We met our customers' needs during periods of supply chain disruptions. While these actions were critical to maintaining Strengthening our 3rd party retailer relationships during the period of uncertainty that put significant pressure on our margins. Beginning in the back half of twenty twenty three, operations began to drive year over year improvements Supply Contracts, Labor Productivity and Logistic Efficiency. As we look ahead, We remain focused on cost reductions and achieving our multi year operational targets.

Speaker 2

3rd driver to gross margin improvement is our brand and product mix. Our new Kemper and Stearns and Foster products Are continuing to resonate with our premium consumers, driving momentum at the high end of the portfolio. We're also seeing a favorable mix benefit as premium consumers are less impacted by the current softness in market. Lastly, our final highlight is the J. D.

Speaker 2

Power award announcement we made this morning. Zipperpedic ranked number 1 And customer satisfaction, the mattresses online in the J. B. Power 2023 report. We are thrilled to achieve this distinction For the 3rd year in a row for our online mattress category and the 5th consecutive year of winning Now, I'll turn the call over to Bhaskar to review our financial statements in more detail.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Scott. In the Q3 of 2023, consolidated sales were approximately $1,300,000,000 And adjusted earnings per share was $0.77 While these results were slightly below our expectations, We believe we continue to outperform our competitive set in a challenging market. We have approximately $32,000,000 of pro form a adjustments in the quarter, all of which are consistent with the terms of our senior credit facility. These adjustments are primarily related to costs incurred in connection with the planned acquisition of Mattress Firm and the previously disclosed cyber event. Turning to North American results.

Speaker 3

Net sales declined 3% in the 3rd quarter. On a reported basis, the wholesale channel declined 4% and the direct channel declined 1%. North American adjusted gross margin improved a very robust 300 basis points to 43.2 percent, driven by favorable commodities and operational efficiencies, partially offset by deleverage. North American adjusted operating margin improved 50 bps to 20.3 percent driven by improvement in gross margins, partially offset by investments in growth initiatives. Now turning to international.

Speaker 3

International net sales increased a very solid 12% on a reported basis and 7% on a constant currency basis. As compared to the prior year, our international gross margin improved a robust 320 basis points to 56.6 percent, driven by commodities, mix and favorable leverage. Our international adjusted operating improved 150 basis points to 16.2 percent driven by improvements in gross margin, partially offset by investments. Global commodity prices continue to trend largely in line with our expectations. We continue to expect favorable commodity prices for the remainder of the year, though remaining significantly elevated from 2020 levels.

Speaker 3

In addition to the benefit of favorable commodity markets, we have signed multiple agreements with certain global suppliers who have recognized our scale These relationships will benefit our gross margins over the long term. Now moving on to the balance sheet and cash flow items. We have paid down approximately $200,000,000 of debt over the 1st 9 months of this year. At the end of the Q3, consolidated net debt was $2,500,000,000 And our leverage ratio under our credit facility was 2.9x, within our historical target range of 2x to 3x. We generated 3rd quarter operating cash flow of approximately $230,000,000 In the last 5 years, the company has realized Over $2,500,000,000 in operating cash flow, proving the business model and providing financial flexibility.

Speaker 3

I'm pleased to highlight that over the last few weeks, we have successfully refinanced our credit facilities. With this refinancing, we have meaningfully extended our debt maturities, improved our financial flexibility and increased our potential total senior credit funding, all while maintaining our current cost of funds in what is clearly a tight commercial banking market. As we previously reported, under the terms of our purchase agreement with Mattress Firm, we have temporarily suspended repurchases Under our share repurchase authorization as we work towards the closing of the transaction. Over this interim period between sign and close, We expect to significantly deleverage as we plan to use cash to pay down debt. After the acquisition Closes, we anticipate our leverage ratio to be between 3x and 3.25x.

Speaker 3

Now turning to 2023 guidance. We now expect adjusted EPS to be in the range of 2.30 and $2.50 We have maintained a $0.20 range, which reflects the global uncertainty. The midpoint of our revised annual guidance is based on sales consistent with prior year. This includes our updated expectation that the U. S.

Speaker 3

Industry volumes will be down low double digits year over year versus our prior expectation of high single digits and the execution of our key initiatives, new product launches and the wraparound impact of pricing. Sales and marketing investments of $20,000,000 to support product launches And record advertising spend of approximately $480,000,000 as we continue to support our leading brands and new products. All this results in adjusted EBITDA for the year of approximately $885,000,000 at the midpoint of the range consistent with prior year. I should point out the adjusted EPS range Foreign exchange rates that are unfavorable versus our previous expectations. Our current outlook for 2023 now contemplates an FX headwind indicating our Q4 2023 adjusted EPS has been reduced $0.04 versus our previous expectations.

Speaker 3

Our guidance also considers the following allocations of capital: A quarterly dividend of $0.11 representing a 10% increase relative to 2022 and CapEx of approximately $200,000,000 which includes $90,000,000 of growth, primarily to fund the completion of our Crawfordsville facility. Going forward, we would expect our CapEx to return to a more normalized level of spend. We think of annualized CapEx Approximately $150,000,000 driven by maintenance spend of $110,000,000 and gross spend of approximately $40,000,000 Lastly, I would like to flag a few modeling items. For the full year 2023, we expect D and A of approximately $185,000,000 to $190,000,000 interest expense of about $130,000,000 on a tax rate of 25 percent and a diluted share count of 177,500,000 shares. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Scott.

Speaker 2

Thanks. Nice job, Oscar. Before opening up the call for questions, Let me provide a brief update on our pending acquisition of Mattress Firm. Consistent with our expectations, we are currently responding To the Federal Trade Commission's robust second request, which we expect to complete in the Q4 of 2023. We continue to expect the transactions to close in mid to late 2024.

Speaker 2

We continue to work closely with Mattress Firm's leadership team. We received high level updates on numerous topics, including their financial performance. Mattress Firm had an October 3 fiscal year end and will report their physical results when their audit is complete, most likely in early December. The preliminary results are in line with our expectations. Finally, I'm pleased to share that Tempur Sealy and Mattress Firm continue to make joint progress in planning for post closing, including Solidifying key supplier relations ahead of the expected close.

Speaker 2

Since announcing the acquisition in May, Tempur Sealy has signed numerous post closing supply agreements with existing Mattress Firm suppliers and one supply agreement with a company not currently supplying Mattress Firm. These contracts are consistent Our expectation for Mattress Firm to continue as a multi branded retailer post closing. A few additional discussions regarding supplier relations are ongoing. In summary, our progress towards the transaction close And with that, I'll open up the call for questions. Operator?

Operator

Thank Please wait for your name to be announced. We ask that you limit yourself to one question. Please stand by while we compile the Q and A roster. One moment for our first question. Our first question comes from the line of Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

Operator

Your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Scott, why don't we start by talking a bit about the demand environment? I think that obviously things felt a little softer in the quarter than maybe some had anticipated and appreciating the color you gave in your comments. But Can you talk a bit more about how things trended during the quarter?

Speaker 4

Any sort of anything of note in there? And how you're thinking about the business as we progress through the balance of this year.

Speaker 5

Sure. Thanks for your question, Susan. I mean, first of all, let's not overlook that the international team had good Solid growth in the quarter. And I think your question is really more directed towards North America. And then to kind of To streamline your question even further, our Mexico operations had a great quarter and Canada was solid.

Speaker 5

So kind of ratcheted down, our largest market, which is where your question is really focused, is the U. S. Market. As far as how the quarter progressed, The same trends that I think we talked about probably in the Q2 we saw in the Q3, which is in non holiday periods, the troughs have gotten deeper. And then during holiday periods, we're seeing growth in the market, but the holiday periods haven't been strong enough to offset the trough.

Speaker 5

So that would be the we'll call that in quarter kind of trend. That's the same trend that we would expect in the 4th quarter. It continues to be what I'd call the normalization of the seasonality that the business used to incur before COVID, With maybe slightly deeper troughs and slightly higher peaks during the holiday period. I think you also kind of asked in general just like demand. I mean, I think as you well know, the industry has been from a unit standpoint has Been in decline for 9 quarters, making it where we currently are sitting at great recession kind of volumes in the industry that we're working through.

Speaker 5

And sure, some of that has to do with slowdown in the general economy and we're talking U. S. Here and wallet shift. There's probably some minor pullback, pull forward from COVID, although we've never really thought that that was a big number. I think the biggest thing that the industry is working through is really advertising.

Speaker 5

And as you know, we've got a lot of smart people and a lot of analytics That go on and look at advertising both ours and the effectiveness of it, what goes on in the industry. And in looking at it, as We try to understand why the industry is having such a tough slug compared to historical volumes that were off our trend lines. If you look at it, manufacturer advertising over the last 3 years is down 40%. And if you look at the retailers, their advertising is down 20%. And yes, that's an issue.

Speaker 5

But I think Probably a bigger issue is when you dive into that reduced advertising

Speaker 2

and you

Speaker 5

look at the mix of what people are doing both from a manufacturing standpoint In a retailer standpoint, they've moved from top of funnel advertising over the last 3 years to the bottom of the funnel. The manufacturers have moved about 40% of their advertising from the top of the funnel to the bottom and retailers have also moved Probably 40% to 40% plus of their advertising from the top of the funnel to the bottom of the funnel. So what's that mean? That means we're not putting Enough customers in the funnel, triggering their thinking about mattresses and we're all kind of fighting for the few customers that happen to Trip into the funnel is what's going on in the industry. If you play with the math, that means total top funnel advertising for manufacturers is down 64% when you include the decline in advertising plus the mix change and It's down 44.

Speaker 5

That is an enormous amount of advertising dollars taken off the top of the funnel. And I I think that's the big problem in traffic. I think that's actually the bigger issue than share of wallet and other things that people like to talk about. Now from our standpoint, we continue to support the industry as a manufacturer and our advertising expense we have not cut. So with us not cutting, you can see the other ad manufacturers are clearly not helping pull the funnel forward.

Speaker 5

We have moved some to the bottom of the funnel And we're looking at that. And what we're doing to help kind of get the industry back on track is we're working with other retailers and major retailers, Walking them through some of this analysis, talking to them about it, and it's resonating with them and some of the large retailers are relooking at their advertising mix In dollar amount.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Peter Keith with Piper Sandler, your line is now open. Peter, your line is now open.

Speaker 6

Sorry about that. Good morning, everyone. So really nice gross Really nice gross margin expansion. I think the surprise to me and I think from others was the growth in SG and A. And you did reference that you're making some growth investments.

Speaker 6

So could you unpack a little bit what changed with Q3? Did anything Accelerate and maybe detail what some of these growth investments are?

Speaker 3

Absolutely. So one of the important things that Scott mentioned is that we want to continue to Support our brands and products. So we continue to advertise and what we believe is that, that advertising is showing itself and that we continue to outperform the market And capture share. So a piece of that is going to be advertising. What I would further say is that we remain Very positive and constructive on our own door specifically our Tempur retail store strategy.

Speaker 3

And as you can imagine, those are very unique Type of shopping experiences that have unique locations, very long tail on those. So those we've identified those opportunities. So as you think about the investments in those stores, that's what's flowing through selling and marketing as well. Outside of that, and as we think about those things, If those things are going to continue to pay dividends as you think about growth in the out years, we're going to continue to invest in future growth.

Speaker 5

Yes. I mean that's consistent with what we said. We did not pull back what I'd call short term things to worry about quarter Earnings, when we look at the market share gains we're getting and what we're doing as far as strengthening our competitive position, we felt like those investments we should continue to make them. And They're advertising and there are some new stores at Tempur and those take some start up costs and stuff. But we stayed on track with our growth plan.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Bobby Griffin with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 8

You bet.

Speaker 7

John, Bhaskar, clearly a very dynamic market here and not For 2024 guidance, we'll all make our own prediction. But when you look at this year and you kind of look how it played out, can you maybe highlight a few of the Aspects that might not repeat from a cost standpoint in 2024 that we should keep in mind? And then on the other side, is there things coming in 2024 that we Should also model in that maybe didn't occur this year from a product investment standpoint or anything about that just to help us think about the flow in and flow out of costs and

Speaker 5

Sure. I'll start and then Bhaskar will probably enhance it and clean it up. I think the one thing that jumps to mind And it's really a highlight for the quarter is the operational efficiencies that we're beginning to flow through the financial statements. Look, the last few years were really a mess in operations, because supply chain issues, commodity changes, An ax conversion, staffing issues, I mean, look, the operating team has done a great job in a very tough operating environment. Well, all that's kind of normalized and we're back to focusing, like we used to do historically on driving efficiencies.

Speaker 5

We're getting back on our metrics and this is really the Q1 that you're beginning to see that in the margin. So that's an internal Issue and I'm optimistic that you're going to continue to see that in 2024. I think you can also see one of the big highlights is the international sales group. As we've talked about this cube project, which again took a lot of energy from operations Got them not kind of off focus from an efficiency standpoint. We're through that project.

Speaker 5

So I'm expecting some operating efficiencies internationally Plus the product is resonating in the marketplace. I think it was like a 12% growth give or take, Oscar, for the international group. And think about that, this is high end product in the international market at a time of geopolitical complications, we'll call it. So, we're thrilled. This is higher ASP product, and it's resonating.

Speaker 5

We'd expect to get leverage In the international operation from sales, Bas, what are just off the top of

Speaker 3

your head? I think all those are the right way to think about it. A number Growth initiatives to drive the top line and then the operations or from a gross margin standpoint, we should see those tailwinds continue.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next Question comes from the line of Jason Haas with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning and thanks for taking my question. Scott, in light of your comments to a previous question, I'm curious if you

Speaker 8

could say what you think is needed for the industry to get back to more normalized unit levels. Do you think we need to see a pickup in industry advertising? Do we need to see more housing turnover? Is it just going to take time? What do you think is key to get there?

Speaker 5

Yes. I think we all fell in love with low funnel advertising and some others pulled back on their advertising hoping to Draft on other people. I think the bedding is an industry that you have to trigger the customer to think about. People don't wake up one day and say, let's go buy a bunch of beds. And the industry is very successful when it advertises.

Speaker 5

And so I think it's primarily a lack of advertising by people And probably

Speaker 2

a mix a little bit of

Speaker 5

a mix fine tuning. I think I would also point to, if you look at what Tempur Sealy has done, I mean, look, it's not any secret. We've gathered a lot of market share. And you see that in our Stearns and Foster product, where we've Higher than historical advertising dollars in there. So we've proven Advertising works.

Speaker 5

Yes, the product is great, sales team is great, but you got to have the advertising in there. And so, Yes. I think advertising is the key. You'll hear retailers talk about traffic and that is the issue and everybody needs to get back to Working a little bit on the top funnel and getting people in the funnel rather than waiting to try at the last minute, grab them off their purchase journey at the end. Things like manufacturers slot buying slots or doing spiffs, those kind of dollar investments are all just Fighting over the customers in the marketplace and aren't productive.

Speaker 5

And they really aren't something that Tempur Sealy has done. We've had some other manufacturers Try to work that angle.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities. Your line is now open.

Speaker 10

Thanks a lot and good morning. I was hoping for a little bit more color around the supply agreements that you're talking about. So the new supply agreements that you're signing With existing suppliers or even one new supplier you mentioned, are these beneficial to you because of the proposed acquisition of Master's firm or Are those independent? And how should we think about the benefits to gross margin from these into 2024?

Speaker 8

Yes. Let me talk about those.

Speaker 5

I mean, we're buying Master's firm. It has other suppliers And we decided it would be advantageous to go ahead and sign some post merger supply agreements with those suppliers. Why did we think that? One is some of these suppliers, Mattress Firm is their largest customer and it creates an uncertainty In their minds, some of them need to refinance their debt, some of them just need to figure out their staffing. Some of these products have long lead times.

Speaker 5

And so in order to have a stable market, it seemed appropriate to go ahead and both parties come together, make sure we have a meeting of the minds and Contractually arrange what that looks like. So it's good for them. It's also good for us because it gives us certainty that we're not going to have any supply disruptions. And with the contracts we've signed, We've got enough non Tempur Sealy suppliers to have a multi branded mattress firm floor and service our customers. It also gives the Mattress Firm folks, the RSAs comfort That they're going to have some of the non Tempur Sealy products that they love to market.

Speaker 5

It also is friendly from an FTC standpoint. To the extent if the FTC has concerns that suppliers are going to get shut out, it's not consistent with our business Plan overseas at Dreams or anywhere else is not our business plan here, but we've got contracts also we've put in place to demonstrate That our business plan is being executed.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Speaker 11

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Scott, I was hoping I could get a little bit of your kind of first blush on how you're thinking about the industry as you look out to 2024. Obviously, some of the leading indicators of the health of the consumer like ramping student loan payments could be a headwind. Obviously, interest rates are going higher.

Speaker 11

Housing has been slower. So curious your early take on 2024. And if the industry stays challenged, can you help us think about How Tempur might change strategy if at all in that kind of environment? Thanks.

Speaker 5

Sure. Look, and we certainly see and agree That there are some headwinds in 2024 and don't want to underestimate those or let you think that we've got our head in the sand. Those are all Good points of why the macro should be some headwinds in there. But if you look at the industry, we're already so far on the bottom from historical standpoints I think that we probably are in good shape. I think some of this is self inflicted So I've used the term bouncing around the bottom.

Speaker 5

Probably the industry took a little bit of a step down, probably bounced a little further down in the bottom. But I think you either get in 2024 bouncing around the bottom or you Get this slow recovery that we've been looking for in the industry. What's that mean for Tempur Sealy? I see nothing going on in the marketplace that would make me think that we would not continue to take market share. And so without I don't know what 2024 looks like yet.

Speaker 5

We haven't finished our budgeting. But I think even if it's a we'll call it a softer overall market, I think more market share gains will help offset issues there. And then as I mentioned earlier on the call, we've got some internal issues That we're in control of from a cost standpoint, that I think give us some optimism as to we'll call it EPS when you get down there. Top line is going to be a little more volatile to look at, but I think we feel relatively comfortable Going into 2024 with more details coming when it's appropriate.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. Our next question comes from the line of Atul Mayshwaroy with UBS. Your line is now open.

Speaker 9

Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Scott, the question that we keep getting from investors who are taking a fresh look at the TPx story Is that who is TPx gaining all the share from and why is it gaining share? So really a 2 part question. Can you provide some color on the who And then

Speaker 8

on the why, how is the product and marketing

Speaker 9

strategy at TPx different? And then related to that, Scott, where is the incremental opportunity to Continue to gain share given your overall robust share position in the U. S. And then what is the risk that some of your competitors might ultimately catch up the ones who have been disrupted? Thank you.

Speaker 5

Sure. Good detailed question. First of all, I don't want to get the international market. So first of all, just internationally Taking a large amount of share, obviously, with what we reported this quarter, lots of competition over there. So we're not going to talk about it because It takes all day to go through each country.

Speaker 5

So I think your question really is more pointed towards the U. S, okay? So I'm going to focus on the U. S, but let's not forget, internationally, We're taking a good bit of share all around the world. So when you go to the U.

Speaker 5

S, I'm going to pause here a second, but I think this is I think we're taking share from everybody. I think there might be a smaller player somewhere in the group. But I think we think the industry was down, call it, low double digits. I think that's not far off what our friends over at Leggett think. I think as others report their numbers, we can kind of solidify and perfect that number.

Speaker 5

And so if you call the industry, we'll just call it down 10% Talking terms. And in the U. S, Bhaskar, we were down like 1 or 2, give or

Speaker 6

take 3.

Speaker 5

Okay. Yes, something like that. So if you play with the numbers, That means that other competitors had a really tough time. When I sit on sales calls, I don't hear of another competitor taking share from us. So I'm going to say we're taking a little bit of share from probably most everybody.

Speaker 5

At some point, and I've said this in the past, the share gains probably will reduce as a percentage because our base is bigger and their base is smaller. By then, I would expect that the industry also is probably in recovery. But no, I think there's still further share gains. We've got some stuff in the works and I would expect from what I've seen 2024 that we would take share In the U. S.

Speaker 5

And certainly take share internationally. When you kind of asked about how are we doing it and what's our secret sauce, I mean, look, it's It's not too big a secret. It's, we put the money in the beds with great product. We don't cut corners. We don't optimize, to To the detriment of our retailers or to our customers and our product, we invest in our people and our sales force has been very stable and productive and our Marketing departments and our staff have been very stable.

Speaker 5

We invest in people in good times and bad times. We believe in advertising. It drives the industry. And we've been advertising significantly, and we'll continue to advertise. And we make what I think at times are the long term decision over the short term decision.

Speaker 5

And in this quarter, there were some decisions That we made during the quarter that I think will pay dividends to us in 2024. And we don't have discussions about optimizing quarters. We have discussions about optimizing our competitive position. So hopefully that's helpful.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question please. Our next question comes from the line of Tice Hughes with Truist. Your line is now open.

Speaker 12

Thank you. I had a question on international. Amongst that 7% organic growth, can you talk about how Dreams did versus that?

Speaker 2

And

Speaker 12

Are we starting to feel the influence of the new product launches? Is there enough out there to be affecting the numbers? Yes.

Speaker 5

Thank you for that direct question because it's actually a great story. As you may know, the U. K. Market is really tough. I mean, the U.

Speaker 5

K. Market from a retail standpoint for durable goods and home is a very tough market, maybe one of the toughest that we're experiencing around the world and the Dreams team has done a fabulous job. They actually had growth in sales in the quarter, Which is what I just told you, should indicate they had significant market share gains. They continue to be able to hit their acquisition EBITDA budget and the team has done it with outstanding execution. So on the product standpoint, there's new products coming to the U.

Speaker 5

K. They actually do not have the new Tempur Really the only major, major little market that doesn't have it because there's some special fire retardant requirements in the U. K, so it takes a little they're always last on it. So they'll actually start gearing up in the 1st part of next Here for what I call the new Tempur beds. They've got some other new product coming.

Speaker 5

They make a good bit of their own product, their own plant, but they're still dealing with a tough market. But boy, They have really done what you know from a Harvard business study you would want people to do, which is in a tough market, really solidify their competitive position.

Speaker 3

And outside of Dreams, the Internet the new product is resonating with the consumer and we saw a nice growth outside of Dreams as well in a very tough market.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question please. Our next Question comes from the line of Laura Champine with Loop Capital. Your line is now open.

Speaker 10

Thanks for taking my question. And I appreciate the commentary that mattress Firms met your internal expectations, but not being privy to those, can you just give us a sense of how they're tracking versus the industry, which I think you commented that, Tempur believes the mattress industry was down low double digits in the quarter.

Speaker 5

Yes. Let me put some words around it, but appreciate that I'm also trying to respect My future partners, but look, I would say I guess I could say these words. Match's The industry has been worse than we expected. That's very clear from our previous comments. And Mattress Firm actually has performed better Than we would have expected in this particular U.

Speaker 5

S. Economy. I think that probably helps reconcile you To what you're trying to work on. But no, they've done well. We'll let them report and we're certainly Thrilled to have them join the company.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. Our next question comes from the line of Carla Casella with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Speaker 13

Hi. Thank you for taking the question. You commented on commodities and how they're improving or normalizing a bit, but there are still some that are well above The pandemic, can you just break it down a little bit in terms of what some of the key commodities what you're seeing?

Speaker 3

Absolutely. So, the way I think about that is just from a framing standpoint is that we indicated historically that we've been able to cover the cost Of the commodity inflation through taking price, however, from a mathematical standpoint, that created a margin, meaning the math issue, Approximately 400 basis points. So sitting here today, we think we're there's still about a half of that to go. The way I think about from a commodity overall standpoint is really puts and takes. Everything is definitely off its peaks and whether that be chemicals, Lumber, steel, etcetera.

Speaker 3

However, if you look at where we started this journey, there's Still a way to go. However, commodities in and of itself is not the story, is that there's also another component of that story, which is We continue to work with our suppliers, our major suppliers to make sure that they understand the potential from a company standpoint and the momentum that we have. So yes, we've seen some tailwinds from commodities over the last couple of bits. However, what we've also done is that we've entered into Very constructive win win contracts and relationships with our existing suppliers to ensure that the gift keeps on giving, Not only from a commodity standpoint, but as a relationship a strategic relationship to see benefits from an EBITDA standpoint.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Your question comes from the line of William Reuter with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Speaker 6

Good morning.

Speaker 14

There's clearly a little bit of concern about lower income and middle income customers that Maybe experiencing increasing debt levels. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about how your sales break down between different demographics and if you're seeing Some of those trends start to impact your results.

Speaker 5

Sure. Consistent with the last few quarters, There's no question that entry level customer is challenged. We have the higher end Products are doing well and growing, call it, Stearns and Foster and Tempur and especially high end Tempur. And where you see real pressure, again, we're talking U. S, is in the entry level customer, which would be our entry level Sealy product, Sealy post orthopedic, mid market is doing better.

Speaker 5

But we would share that, that the entry level customer It's really not active in the current market.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities. Your line is now open.

Speaker 10

Thanks. I just have a follow-up. You guys talked about being on track to respond to the IBCs segment quarter this quarter. Is that timing at all longer than previously expected? I thought you'd be done with responding to that by now.

Speaker 5

I would say, look, it's a complicated process, obviously. I think we've provided the government with over 1,000,000 documents, just to be clear. We've always said that we would be substantially complete in the Q4. We're off probably maybe 2, 3 weeks, Probably from the original timeline, at the very start. That's fair.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I'd like to hand the conference back to Mr. Scott Thompson for closing remarks.

Speaker 5

Thank you, operator. To our over 12,000 employees around the world, thank you for what you do every day to make the company successful. To our retail partners, thank you for your outstanding representation of our brands. To our shareholders and lenders, thank you for your confidence and The leadership of the company and its Board, this ends today's call, operator. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

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Key Takeaways

  • Despite a challenging U.S. industry environment with volumes down low double digits, Tempur Sealy delivered its third-best Q3 on record with net sales of ~$1.3 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.77, driven by relative market outperformance and market share gains.
  • New Tempur Breeze mattresses and smart bases strengthened premium positioning, lifting Tempur ASP by 5%, while Stearns & Foster ASP rose double digits with 60% higher search interest year-over-year.
  • International net sales climbed 12% (7% constant currency) as the rollout of new Tempur products in 90+ markets and strong U.K. Dreams performance highlighted the long-term growth opportunity abroad.
  • Consolidated adjusted gross margin expanded 340 basis points year-over-year through pricing actions to offset commodity inflation, operational efficiencies in supply and logistics, and a favorable premium mix shift.
  • Tempur Sealy is progressing on its proposed acquisition of Mattress Firm with a robust FTC review expected to conclude in Q4 2023 and closing targeted for mid-late 2024, backed by post-closing supply agreements to support a multi-branded retail offering.
A.I. generated. May contain errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Tempur Sealy International Q3 2023
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