VEON Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 20, 2023

There are 3 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning and afternoon. Thank you for everyone joining us today for VEON's 3rd quarter presentations for the period ending September 30, 2023. I'm Faisal Hori, Head of Investor Relations. I'm pleased to be joined in the room today by Con Tarzioli, our CEO along with Joep Rekenhoff, our CFO. Today's presentation will begin with the key highlights and business updates from Kahn, following discussion of detailed financial results by Joep.

Operator

We'll then hand it back to Khan to discuss our outlook and priorities for 2023. We'll then open up the line for Q and A. Before getting started, I would like to remind you that we may make forward looking statements during today's presentation, which involve certain risks and uncertainties. These statements are relating to the company's anticipated performance and guidance for 2023, future market developments and trends, operational network developments and network investments, and the company's ability to realize its targets in commercial and strategic initiatives, including current and future transactions. Certain factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those and the forward looking statements, including the risks detailed in the Company's annual report on Form 20 F and other recent public filings made by the Company with the SEC.

Operator

The earnings release and the earnings presentation, each of which include reconciliation of non IFRS measures presented today, can be downloaded from our website. With that, let me hand it over to Kaan.

Speaker 1

Faisal, thank you very much. Good morning and good afternoon to everyone. Thank you very much for joining us for our presentation of Beyond's 3rd quarter results for 2023. Before we jump into it, Please allow me to take a few minutes and zoom out and talk a little bit about where we are today and how we got there. I have been in the industry for nearly 30 years.

Speaker 1

And in that time period, as you may imagine, I have seen quite a bit. VEON is beyond all these and it has a very special place in my heart. VEON is resilient, VEON is strong, VEON is tough. And let me say it again, resilient, strong and tough. Nearly 2 years ago, We were thrown into an unprecedented situation.

Speaker 1

2 of our largest markets, 70% of business went to war with each other. The company was strong, its largest set of challenges ever. Not only Did we have to deal with the day to day challenges to continue providing essential vital services to our customers? We had extraordinary challenges dealing with regulators, governments, sanctions and financial market actors. I want to thank all of our employees, our partners and our shareholders for supporting us under very trying circumstances.

Speaker 1

We could not have done it without you. I also want to talk a bit about culture. I'm a believer in the adage, culture eats strategy for breakfast. We had a good culture at Beyond prior to the challenges we have faced, but now Having been thrown into the fire, we have emerged, tested by war, battle ready, excited and optimistic about our future, about what we can do for our customers, our partners and our shareholders. We now have an exceptional culture at VEON, which is reflected across all of our portfolio.

Speaker 1

Let me give you a few examples. In markets like Pakistan and Bangladesh, Our companies are the highest ranked national employers. Employees that have previously departed our companies are rejoining our groups, helping us to deal with the challenges and showing their loyalties. Why I am confident that we can continue delivering growth? Because we have exceptional people and the performance driven culture.

Speaker 1

During the last 24 months, we have not only survived, but we have tried. We have continued to deliver services to our customers and delighted that we will continue to generate significant shareholder value. We are working tirelessly to deliver Profitable, sustainable growth and imagine a second if our team can deliver results as strong as these under most Difficult circumstances. What we can do in more normal environment in the quarters to come? Let me spell it out for you.

Speaker 1

VEON will keep moving faster, stronger and harder. This is VEON 2.0. I am deeply proud of all our employees across all of our operating companies for their exceptional hard work and commitment to VEON and our shared future. With that said, let's talk about Russia. The business this business was originally founded in Russia And exiting was neither easy nor simple.

Speaker 1

Yet day 1, we made a choice, and we chose Ukraine. And our team worked tirelessly in an extremely challenging environment to exit smoothly a very large country. I wanted to thank everyone who helped VEON successfully complete the sale of our Russian business. I am pleased to note the positive impact that this has already had on our cooperation with banks and brokers with trading volumes of our stock rising and sell side coverage from Barclays, New Street Research and INAM now available. With the sale of our Russian business complete, VEON has significantly deleveraged its balance sheet, and we are delivering much faster growth.

Speaker 1

Moving on, our operating companies in their markets are all delivering double digit local currency revenue growth. I will present the highlights of the Q3 of 2023 on next slides and then move to a country by country overview of our operating companies and their continued Execution of VEON's digital operator strategy. This time, as you have demanded, I will give you more detailed update on our digital services and some more KPIs around those. What is VEON 2.0? The material on this slide should be familiar to you from my introduction.

Speaker 1

In short, The new VEON is focused on 5 pillars, delivering double digit growth as a result of rolling up our sleeves and creating renewed foundation for growth. We have shown we can and will continue delivering double digit growth. 2, margin expansion. As we continue to grow, we will see margin expansion both from operating leverage and our renewed cost controls. 3rd, high free cash flow generation as a result of the first two pillars and moderation of CapEx as we get closer to our objectives to being an asset light company and 70% 4 gs penetration.

Speaker 1

Beyond will be highly free cash flow generative. 4, strong balance sheet. No one comes out of what we have come out without recognizing the value of a fortress balance sheet. We will continue to deliver and optimize our capital structure. I've been speaking about our digital operator for some time now.

Speaker 1

Now we are beginning to see the fruits of the last two years of work. We are now moving from having just customer market share gains to having consumer business wallet share gains. Our digital products and services will further make us even more valuable to our customers. Let me move to the next slide. In the Q3 of 2023, We once again achieved double digit growth at 19% year on year revenue growth in local currency terms.

Speaker 1

Service revenues rose at a similar rate, up 19.8% year on year. Local currency EBITDA expanded in the 3rd quarter at a rate of nearly 31% and normalized for local currency EBITDA growth, Taking some immaterial one offs aside, 27.4% year on year growth. In United States dollars terms, we saw year on year growth of 6% revenues and 17% EBITDA in 3rd quarter. While foreign currency depreciation continued to impact our reported currency performance, macro conditions are stabilizing in our markets. The operational robustness of our business is showing faster growth in EBITDA and margin expansion.

Speaker 1

CapEx was down 29.8 percent year on year to $131,000,000 for the 3rd quarter And our CapEx intensity for the quarter came in at 13.9% in line with seasonality. We have a robust balance sheet with a net cash of $2,200,000,000 of which $1,800,000,000 was held at headquarters As of September 30. Joop will later update you on our pro form a liquidity position, reflecting the completion of our Russia exit and early redemption of 2023 24 notes in October later in the presentation. Next slide. VEON has consistently executed on driving high growth in markets over the last past 3 years.

Speaker 1

We have grown local currency service revenues 1.5 times over the last 2.5 years. This should help drive home what is possible in these markets with the right strategy, the right culture and the team can deliver growth as well in excess of traditional telco operators. As we have expanded access to 4 gs connectivity and offer tailored portfolios of connected digital services in each market, we are able to convert a growing number of customers to multiply users with higher ARPU and lower churn. The digital operator approach has resulted in double digit 2 years cumulative average growth rates across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Ukraine, as you can see in the slide. With the exit of Russia on October 9, VEON has achieved a significant deleveraging of its balance sheet with a more robust balance sheet.

Speaker 1

On a pro form a basis, adjusting to account for Completion of the transaction shortly after the reporting period ended. Gross debt decreased to 4,400,000,000 Net debt dropped to €2,700,000,000 Net debt excluding capitalized leases dropped to €1,800,000,000 And this would put our net debt to EBITDA multiple at 1.21, excluding leases at the end of October 2023. With an optimized capital structure following our exit from Russia, VEON can now focus on delivering its digital operators and augmented intelligence for all strategies across Ukraine and its 5 high growth frontier markets across Central and South Asia. As I said earlier, this is the new VEON, VEON 2.0, a stronger company that is running harder and faster. Going through our portfolio of growth trends.

Speaker 1

Over the last two years, we have delivered an average of 17% cumulative average growth rate across our markets. Let me put this in context. As we have successfully executed our 4 gs led multiplay strategy, Growth has accelerated in 2022. Ukraine, a country at war, has grown 13%. Pakistan and Bangladesh both experienced macro volatility and hence we have also grown double digits.

Speaker 1

This is not a quarterly one off. This is a structural growth in our markets where 4 gs penetration remains still low and nearly half of the potential customers are still using feature phones. Growing in emerging markets is never easy And many of you will wonder how much of our growth is because of inflation. As you can see above, across the group, We have consistently grown well above inflation and believe that trend can continue. Group A, symbolizing all the markets, including markets at war Group B, markets without war And both has been delivering consistently above inflation growth rates because we are able to tap and penetrate into adjacent markets and digital services.

Speaker 1

Let me give you a brief snapshot across the portfolio of service revenue and EBITDA growth among countries. In Ukraine, Keya STAR delivered another quarter of double digit local currency growth. This is a testament to the team's hard work to keep Ukraine and Ukrainians connected, while also ensuring healthy business performance. Across our Central and South Asian markets, Year on year local currency service revenue growth range from 15.2% in Bangladesh to 29% in Pakistan. Looking at EBITDA performance excluding Uzbekistan, local currency EBITDA grew at rates ranging from 18.9% in Bangladesh to 36.4 percent in Pakistan.

Speaker 1

And EBITDA expanded faster than revenue in every market. Uzbekistan was negatively impacted this quarter by extraordinary one offs that we will later discuss. Shifting gear, Let me share our 4 gs and Multiplay highlights. These are the key metrics driving our operational and financial performance and underpin our 4 gs for all and digital operator strategies. Year on year growth in 4 gs users demonstrates The continued impact of our 4 gs for all strategy, with 4 gs users up almost 13% year on year to $92,000,000 in Q3.

Speaker 1

4 gs penetration also rose 7.1 percentage points to 58.8 bringing us closer to our group target of 70. This growth in 4 gs users has been underpinned by investments into expanding our 4 gs network. The 3rd quarter saw us increase the number of 4 gs sites by 14% year on year, reaching a total of 61,000 sites. In Q3, Multiplay users grew 23.1 percent year on year to almost 30,000,000, representing almost 24% of the user base. Local currency revenue in this segment grew almost 42% year on year to reach $85,000,000 representing 42% of our B2C revenues.

Speaker 1

We see the compounding effect of our dual 4 gs for all and digital operator strategies in our Multiplay segment. Expanding 4 gs access enables us to convert More single play users to higher ARPU, double play and multi play subscribers. They use both 4 gs connectivity and our digital services, spend more time with us, entertain with us, bank with us, educate themselves and result in less churn and drive higher revenue generation. Moving on to the country performance section. We will start with Kyiv Star as usual.

Speaker 1

VEON and Kyivstar are committed to supporting Ukraine, both in our everyday efforts to keep Ukraine and Ukrainians connected and with our long term commitment to invest in rebuilding Ukraine's mobile telecoms infrastructure. It is a result of Kyivstar's success that Secretary Pompeo has joined our Board as well. In the 3rd quarters, nearly 100% of Kjerstad network was operational in Ukraine controlled territories. While CapEx declined 11% year on year, We connected 54 new settlements during the Q3 and continue to install or upgrade base stations. Kiev Star has also made significant progress to ensure network resilience with power storage and generation capacities installed across key sites.

Speaker 1

Keyf Star continues to grow its 4 gs user base, which reached almost 14,000,000 in the 3rd quarter, rising 57% of the user base. While Ukraine remains an extremely challenging operating environment, Kiev Star delivered double digit local Currency revenue and EBITDA growth supported by rising 4 gs penetration and increases in both double play and multi play users. In addition to our plans to invest in rebuilding Ukraine's telecom infrastructure, we are committed to helping Ukrainian communities Tackle the challenges they face right now. In the Q3, Kyivstar donated ryivnas to a range of initiatives including demining of the arable land and recovery projects including hospitals. HealthSe is the furthest along in terms of our digital health care offerings across our portfolio.

Speaker 1

It provides online consultations with medical professionals and is a vital part of TF STAR's digital operator portfolio. It provided 1,900,000 appointments in the quarter alone and serves 26,000,000 users virtually The entirety of the Ukrainian population that has online access. Halcy provides an example of what we are in the process of building across our portfolio. Let me pause here for a second and share with you a few points regarding Kief Star. VEON is the owner of Kyivstar, full stop.

Speaker 1

We are fully committed to Ukraine to Ukrainian people and their future. We are a vital provider of communication and digital services to the country, which would not be possible without us. We will do everything in our power to make sure that our shareholders are protected. We have a very robust internal effort to safeguard our interests and those of our shareholders. We are actively engaged with Ukrainian officials, a delegation from VEON, including myself, visited Kyiv recently And this constant coordination will continue.

Speaker 1

We are using all resources alongside various government and international institutions to protect and preserve the rights of Lyon and the rights of international investors. Moving to Pakistan. Jazz, our operating company in Pakistan gained market share and further accelerated its growth despite the challenging macroeconomic environment. Jazz's successful execution of our digital operator strategy combined with disciplined cost control helped drive revenue growth of 27% and EBITDA growth of 36% year on year. Both of Jazz's FinTech offerings JazzCash and Modelling Microfinance Bank delivered strong top line growth and saw their EBITDA margins expand.

Speaker 1

Jazz's 4 gs penetration reached 61% of its enabling the addition of further Multiplay users who accounted for 25% of the operators monthly active users. With JazzCash, Pakistan's most popular financial services app and Tamasha, the country's leading video streaming app, Jazz is a good illustration of how our digital operator strategy is succeeding and creating growth. All our product offerings from financial services have positive unit economics from strong underlying growth. During COVID, Jazz offered free usage for its services, which led to negative unit economics, which we have now ended. This explains why USSD users went from 9,500,000 to 7,000,000.

Speaker 1

However, we cherish the fact that Jazz mobile app users grew from 7,800,000 to 8,500,000. Many of you are likely familiar with Safaricom's M Pesa and its growth how it transformed Kenya. I wanted to focus your attention on 2 things here. First, we are still in the infancy in penetration of digital financial services in Pakistan at around 6% versus 58% in Kenya. And secondly, take a look At the last line, transaction value versus GDP.

Speaker 1

Pakistan is at 0.06 times where Kenya is already at 2.5, an order of magnitude of almost 42 times. This is despite The fact that Pakistan population is over 4 times larger. We are at the earliest innings of helping transform Pakistan's digital economy, Already EBITDA and cash positive businesses. Let's switch to Tamasha, which is now recognized in the country as the best digital platform for entertainment. Tamasha is open to all mobile users.

Speaker 1

63.4 percent of its user base are actually non Jazz customers. At the same time, the Jazz customers that watch Tamasha have an ARPU that is 2.7 times higher than our single Voice customers. By bringing original and exclusive content that is relevant to our customers in Jaz and Tamasha are able to drive more individuals to use data and more multiplay offerings that drive higher revenue performance. Moving on to Kazakhstan. Beeline Kazakhstan remains Kazakhstan's leading operator in terms of Net Promoter and continues to gain market share.

Speaker 1

This contributed 18% year on year local currency Revenue growth with service revenues up 19% year on year. Beeline Kazakhstan strong performance continues to be driven by higher ARPU with consistent growth in the 4 gs data user base and consumption of data and digital services. 4 gs penetration was at 73% in the 3rd quarter and Multiplay users represented 42% of monthly active users. These customers consume Beeline Kazakhstan's digital services such as BTV, Simply Financial Services product, Easy, Hitter and they account for 60% of subscriber revenues in the Q3. Let me speak about IZI, IZI, which is Kazakhstan's 1st digital operator.

Speaker 1

Users of the IZEA continued to grow reaching almost 500,000 monthly active users in Q3. Their year on year growth is 4.3 times. Just under half of Easi users are non Beeline customers, while the remainder also have an easy SIM card and power their connectivity in addition to entertainment services they consume. Monthly active mobile customers rose 59.1% year on year to 219,000 in the 3rd quarter. And easy users who enjoy the digital experience of the entertainment super app have an ARPU over 4.4 times higher compared to the ARPU of easy customers who do not consume entertainment content.

Speaker 1

In Bangladesh, Banglalink revenues rose 15.1% in the 3rd quarter, the company's 6th Consecutive quarter of double digit revenue growth and tripling the average growth of the competition. Growing market share and ongoing investment in the Banglalink network drove EBITDA up almost 19% in 3rd quarter. Banglalink's strong focus on cost control and inflationary pricing helped deliver this impressive result, even as the electricity and fuel costs continued to rise. Banglalink's total subscriber base reached almost 40,000,000 by the end of the second quarter rising 8% year on year. Banglalink's 4 gs penetration continued to rise as a result of investment into its expanding network with the share of 4 gs users up by 9 percentage points year on year and almost 20,000,000.

Speaker 1

This represents 49% of the total subscriber base, a growth still to come. 4 gs rollout combined with Banglalink's digital services portfolio helped deliver a 56.1% year on year rise in Multiplay users and 62.3% year on year growth in Multiplay revenues. Last but not least, let me share that we have sold nearly 1 third of our tower portfolio in Bangladesh. This is a sign that we are committed to our strategy of being asset light. Expect us to continue delivering on unlocking greater value from our portfolio of both physical and digital assets.

Speaker 1

Toffee is part of Banglalink's digital operator offering and the country's leading entertainment platform. TOFI continues to maintain a healthy user base with monthly active users reaching 12,200,000 in the 3rd quarter, up 72.2% year on year. TOFI is another example of VEON Operating Company's digital service that is available to all mobile customers in the country and 70% of Banglalink users have not even tried TOFI. But this application is being consumed by the competition customers. Toffee customers continue to make the most of Platform's Wide variety of streaming content with the local total number of sessions watched up 31% year on year.

Speaker 1

Bangladeshi customers who use TOFI generate 2.6 times the ARPU of a single play voice customer, which continues to illustrate the value of the offering. Turning now to Beeline Uzbekistan. In the 3rd quarter, Beeline Uzbekistan achieved 15.6% year on year local currency top line growth. This performance was driven by the combination of expansion in the customer base and higher ARPU as well as double digit increases in 4 gs users And data usage. Beeline Uzbekistan now exceeds our 70% 4 gs penetration target with 71% of the customer base using 4 gs.

Speaker 1

Data consumption rose almost 30% on the back of the increase in 4 gs users. The year on year decrease in EBITDA in the 3rd quarter was impacted by one off factors in Q3 2022 and Q3 2023. Adjusting for those, Beeline Uzbekistan would have reported EBITDA growth of 10% year on year. For the last two years, we spoke a lot about the digital operator strategy. In the next few slides, I will go in some detail as you have requested to show you what we have built and continuing to build.

Speaker 1

There are 4 key additional verticals from our existing self care applications: education, health care, Entertainment and Financial Services. As you can see here, in each market, we have a variety of applications catering to the needs and desires of our customers. In Q3, we hit 93,000,000 monthly active users And I'm happy to share that at the end of October, 93,000,000 user number is now above 100,000,000 monthly active users, shows the dynamism in this vibrant space. Over the next three slides, we provide an overview of some of our most strategic digital platforms across our key verticals in the Du 1440 strategy. Specifically, we focus in on Financial Services, Entertainment and Self Care App segments.

Speaker 1

In Kazakhstan, simply the country's only branchless neobank recorded a 2 times year on year increase in monthly active users. In Pakistan, FinTech JazzCash maintains its leading position, boasting 15,400,000 monthly active users and a total transaction value of INR1.4 trillion, up 39% year on year. The decline in monthly active users and number transactions at JazzCash was due to the post pandemic era, Discontinuation of 0 or negative value accounts, which were impacting profitability negatively. Let me now pause here and talk about our entertainment vertical. Our 2 major entertainment platforms have delivered another quarter of positive user growth.

Speaker 1

In Pakistan, monthly active users of our Tamasha platform grew 4.4x year on year, while Bangladesh's toffee recorded a 72.2% increase. We have also smaller entertainment platforms in Kazakhstan, albeit they are all number 1 in the countries that they are serving. BTV goes from strength to strength, monthly active users reaching 800,000, a rise of 24.1%. Moving to our self-service applications. Our super app in Bangladesh, MyBL, delivered another quarter of double digit year on year monthly active user growth, rising 43% to reach 7,600,000 users.

Speaker 1

We also highlight ongoing penetration gains, App users growth and engagement improvements across all our service platforms, specifically noting 20% plus Growth in monthly active users at My Beeline Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. I will keep you posted on these categories Moving onwards on a routine basis to demonstrate the traction we see in the digital services and digital operators 14.40 strategy. I will stop there. And Joop, let me hand it over to you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Cam. I will outline some of our revenue highlights for the Q3. We have delivered another quarter of Double digit year on year local currency revenue growth across all of our 6 markets. With group service revenue rising 19 point 8% year on year and total revenue up 19.3% year on year to reach $945,000,000 Well, our reported revenue also demonstrated growth, up 6.1% year on year. This was impacted by significant local currency depreciation across our markets and particularly in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Uzbekistan and Ukraine.

Speaker 2

Revenue growth was driven by market share gains And expansion of our digital platforms across all our operations as well as the effect of disciplined inflationary pricing. Let's now take a closer look at our EBITDA and EBITDA margin. VEON's local currency EBITDA rose 30.6% year on year in the 3rd quarter, while our EBITDA margin increased 4.4 points to 47%. It is important to note that EBITDA growth was impacted by extraordinary one offs in Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan in both the second and third quarter. Adjusting for these one offs, normalized group EBITDA increased by $0.20 year on year in local currency terms.

Speaker 2

On Slide 32, we can direct our attention towards our CapEx and CapEx intensity. In line with our asset light strategy and focus on maintaining strict financial discipline, CapEx and CapEx intensity have decreased year on year and fall within our full year 2023 guidance. CapEx in the 3rd quarter stands at $131,100,000 with a CapEx intensity of 17.8%, helping drive Our 4 gs network expansion and deliver on our 4 gs for all 3 gs. Given the challenges in Pakistan and Ukraine, our CapEx spend was less than anticipated at the beginning of the year. We remain disciplined and flexible with respect to where, when and how we will spend CapEx to ensure our customers have the best service possible across our platforms.

Speaker 2

Moving now to some important balance sheet metrics let me outline our debt and liquidity positions. At the end of the 3rd quarter, the group's liquidity position We remain strong with a total cash position of $2,200,000,000 excluding banking operations in Pakistan with $1,800,000,000 of this cash held at HQ. At a local company level, VEON's operations continue to be self sufficient from a funding perspective. In September, VEON initiated a full and early redemption of notes due to mature in December 2023 and June 2024, which led to a meaningful reduction in reported gross debt levels. Outside of the Q3 2023 reporting period, October 2023 contained numerous transactions that have had a material impact on the group's financial position, specifically the sale of our Russian assets and the repayment of VEON Holding 5.95 percent notes maturing in October 2023.

Speaker 2

Adjusting for both events, on a pro form a basis, VEON net debt including leases stands at $2,700,000,000 representing $8,200,000,000 of net debt 12 months ago. We note $1,600,000,000 of net debt is at issue level. Our cash balance stands at $1,700,000,000 of which $1,300,000,000 is at HQ. Moving on to the highlights for the 9 months of 2023. VLUND once again recorded double digit local currency revenue and EBITDA growth, with revenue rising 18.2% year on year and EBITDA up 80.1% year on year.

Speaker 2

These figures demonstrate the continued impact of our digital operating strategy across some markets. While inflationary pricing continues to play a role in increasing revenues. Revenue growth for Q3 is aligned with our full year guidance, which we revised upwards at at the end of the Q2. We have repeatedly said that we are embarking on a new era as a leaner, well capitalized view and this vision is reflected in our continued focus on cost controls. CapEx declined by 31% year on year with CapEx intensity turning lower to 14.3%, while our EBITDA margin stands at 45.4%.

Speaker 2

The process of selling of our Russian assets marked a milestone moment in our transition to a new VEON and has led to a substantial decrease of debt levels. With gross debt reducing from $11,400,000,000 to $4,300,000,000 year on year, a decrease of 62 percent. And net debt reducing from $8,200,000,000 to $2,100,000,000 year on year, a decrease of 74%. Following our exit of Russia, our capital structure continues to be progressively optimized. Our cash liquidity position remains strong with levered metrics 1.2 times net debt to EBITDA due to large declines in gross debt balances over the past 12 months.

Speaker 2

In addition to this, there's a $1,500,000,000 outstanding under the RCF, which can be rolled over until final maturities 2024 and 20 25. We've also maintained a robust cash position, as outlined earlier in this presentation, with $1,700,000,000 cash equivalents of which $1,300,000,000 is held at HQ. Where does our debt profile stand now? We have made significant process in establishing a more favorable debt maturity schedule, shifting all significant debt maturities to 2025. As of the end of the 3rd quarter, we've witnessed $124,000,000 of debt maturing in the next 12 months.

Speaker 2

As of October 2023, we note debt maturing in 2025 is $1,500,000,000 We note the additional debt redemption will not only reduce effective gross debt levels and maturities at VEON, but also reduce absolute debt servicing costs at VEON. In addition to this, there's 1,050,000,000 outstanding under the RCF, which can be rolled over into final maturities and 2024 2025. Let me outline some of the changes to our cost of debt and average debt maturity. The cost of borrowing versus the Q2 of 2023 has been impacted by 3 key factors: 1, higher interest rates on floating U. S.

Speaker 2

Dollar and Pakistani rupee debt. 2, the early redemption of VEON bonds maturing in December 2023 June 2024 have also an impact on borrowing cost due to these bonds holding relatively lower coupons First, the average cost of debt and the acquisition of fee and holding bonds by PDIC Wimpocum. And 3, one should note that we now have a greater proportion of higher rate OCCO debt than lower rate U. S. Dollar debt in our gross Debt mix, this has the effect of increasing blended cost of debt.

Speaker 2

Average debt maturity excluding RCF stands at 3.4 years. The next tranche of the RCF due to mature in October 23 and totaling US6092 million dollars as we rolled over until January 2024. And now I will hand over to Carnegie.

Speaker 1

Joop, thank you very much. And before I share with you our revised upgraded guidance, I want to highlight 2 important things. I am realizing that There are less analysts following our company's details. I think these two information will be useful in visualizing our run rate Figures. Let me zoom out for 2 important factors.

Speaker 1

1, last year in October 2022, Due to us winning a court case in Pakistan, we had extraordinary recognized revenues, which were not recognized Previously, properly because of this tax case. And it had an impact of $30,000,000 in revenues and $91,000,000 in EBITDA. I think it is important to note that to compare our 2022 and 2023 results. It's also important to note that almost $43,000,000 of extraordinary costs year to date is associated with exit from Russia and restructuring of our headquarters operation in 2023. Naturally, these costs will also not be recurring.

Speaker 1

Excluding the above mentioned one offs, the two cases, October 2023 year to date EBITDA growth is trending at 20.3% year on year And this level of growth accurately reflects the current normalized EBITDA growth trends for VEON's underlying operations. Going forward, we will now provide the market guidance for EBITDA on a normalized basis excluding these two one offs. Let me share with you our full year guidance for 2023. Although we have revised the guidance upwards last quarter, we are now revising our guidance upward again for the 2nd time this year. We expect our full year top line growth to be in the range of 18% to 20%, up from previously declared 16% to 20 19%.

Speaker 1

And we also expect normalized EBITDA growth of 18% to 20%, up from 10% to 14% as expressed before. Our CapEx intensity will now be in the range of 16% to 18% versus 18% to 20% as we have expressed before. Where are we going with this situation? Let me try to summarize. We are effectively progressing and [SPEAKER JEAN FRANCOIS VAN BOXMEER:] Quitting on all our goals despite certain new challenges, we are optimistic and excited about our future.

Speaker 1

We have exited Russia. In Ukraine, we will now focus on ensuring VEON's ownership and shareholders value protection. Looking ahead, our markets remain nascent with most of the population still using feature phones. We will continue delighting them with great service and digital products that matter to them and make their lives better, whether that is through health care, education, financial services, watching cricket or entertainment. We are increasingly becoming asset light.

Speaker 1

As some of you may be aware, we have recently announced the sale of our towers in Bangladesh, to be precise, 1 third of our portfolio. Expect more news along these lines in the future. We will continue to optimize our balance sheet to better reflect our digital operator strategy. At the end of the day, we are here to create value for our customers, our partners and shareholders, becoming a leaner, faster, a stronger organization that will deliver greater value to all. Thank you very much for listening us today.

Speaker 1

And Faisal, let's move to the questions.

Operator

Thank you, Khan. We can open the line for questions.

Speaker 1

Can we increase the volume a little bit?

Speaker 2

Can you repeat the question?

Operator

I think we have some questions in the Q and A. So let me start from there then. The next question comes from Sean Cook. With the Russia sale complete, Are you now able to pursue a credit rating from a reputable firm? Joao?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Faizal. Yes. Indeed, with the Russian operations being sold, we really want to go back to normal and we start the process To pursue credit rating with 1 or more of the credit agencies.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Anjali Doshi. Can you comment on the following? What is your comfort level of net debt to EBITDA range, excluding inclusive and excluding leases going forward?

Speaker 2

Yes, I think we've given a lot of information in this update. Going forward, probably we talk around 1.5 times post IFRS including leases. For us in an acceptable level. And as you know, we're optimizing our capital structure And also increasing debt maturity. So we think about 1.5 times.

Operator

The second part of the question, can you discuss the opportunities to repatriate cash from each of your markets to HQ?

Speaker 2

Yes, Faisal, thanks. And it's a relevant question, of course. We have no

Operator

formal

Speaker 2

limitations to repatriate cash to the center Except for our operations in the Ukraine of Court due to the martial law. But for the other operating companies, there are no formal limitations

Operator

The next question is from Roumen Ivanov. Can you please clarify your plans with respect to the RCF? Do you plan to repay the facility or at least partially extend it?

Speaker 2

Yes. As mentioned, we are optimizing our capital structure [SPEAKER JEAN FRANCOIS VAN BOXMEER:] With a smaller organization, of course, we are also reviewing our RCF. At this moment, we are in discussion with our RCF holders To look for possibilities to reduce and extend the current RCF. As mentioned, we also want to increase our debt maturity. That's a good combination of this discussion.

Operator

Our next question is from Stella Cridge from Barclays. Can you explain the move in net debt quarter over quarter in between September October? What other steps need to be taken before VEON can return to debt markets?

Speaker 2

Yes, these are two questions. The first one, as presented, You've seen the numbers of September 2023. These are the numbers where the recent operations were still part of We have also explained, showed you the current cash gross debt and net debt level As per October 2023. And these are, of course, the numbers without Russia. So there you see changes, which mainly have to do with the redemption of intercompany balance and the pressure.

Operator

Our next question is from Daria Nomenko. Could you please provide more updates on asset monetization? And on the recent Tower deal, are you planning to Stream proceeds to the Holdco

Speaker 1

level. Sure, Dario. First of all, you would remember that Back in 2 years ago, even actually in 2021, when we set our strategic plans, we said we're going to be Asset light company, and we believe that there are better specialized dedicated independent tower companies to manage the towers rather than keeping them buried in our balance sheets. Since then, we have done actually quite a lot of heavy lifting. We have, as of now, Ring fenced and spin out all our towers into separate companies in all the operations that we are currently operating in.

Speaker 1

Regulatory wise, Bangladesh was an exception because we cannot own a tower company in Bangladesh. It's a licensed operation. But apart from that, all our other operations already have tower companies and we are working it and talking to different independent tower companies in terms of How to engage them managing our towers in a better way and allowing us to crystallize the value. Since the beginning, we have sold before the war our towers in Russia. Later on, we have now sold 1 third of Our portfolio in Bangladesh and we still have close to 30,000 towers in various different operations, which we will be working on.

Operator

Thank you, Kant. Our next question is from Chris Hoare of New Street. Regarding CapEx guidance, do you expect 16% to 18% of sales going forward or Can you reduce it further?

Speaker 1

Maybe let me take this question because if you remember, We said that we are targeting for 70% 4 gs penetration and we will continue to be elevated at the levels of CapEx. There are 2 important things happening. First of all, we are growing faster and we are happy with that naturally And that is of course releasing the CapEx to revenue sales ratio in favorable way. Secondly, if you for example take a country like Pakistan, Today, 15% of our revenues in Pakistan is actually from mobile financial services and entertainment platforms, Which are totally different business models and does not require same level of CapEx. So if you put all these things together And if you add the fact that we are now getting very close to 70% and actually already exceeded 70% in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, You would naturally see a reduction on the CapEx to revenue ratio.

Speaker 1

That's why you see 16 to 18 And I would expect this figure to go below 16 over the next 3 to 5 years as we further Generate more revenues from non telecom businesses as well as reach the penetration levels that we desire.

Operator

Our next question is from Roman Ivanov. What actions would you take to crystallize value of digital assets?

Speaker 1

We are unique in the sense that the population in the markets that we operate in is more than 510,000,000. What we observe is the consumer business and consumers in these markets are significantly underserved. There is an unmet demand, especially when it comes to entertainment, financial services, education and healthcare. Therefore, every single investment we do in this area and as you can imagine investment in digital services considering the power Of distribution we have through the thanks to the telecom is much smaller in size. It gives us to Create the largest player in a vertical over 12 to 18 months.

Speaker 1

This is what happened with Tamasha, This is what happened with TOFI, what happened with JazzCash, Simply Easy and Healthy. So you What we would like to do is to make sure that to further accelerate the growth of these digital services, We would be seeking out strategic partners who can enhance our offers and create differentiation. And you will see us moving in that direction when it comes to looking for partners that will also of course crystallize the value of these assets as well.

Operator

Our next question is again from Chris Hoare of New Street Research. He's asking about the EBITDA margins, Specifically regarding our current season, normally when currencies are under pressure, you would normally expect margins to fall. Why aren't you seeing that? And then secondly, does that imply OpCo margins can rise next year if we have stability in the currencies?

Speaker 2

[SPEAKER JEAN

Speaker 1

FRANCOIS VAN BOXMEER:] Yes. I will also Joop, you can add to what I will say. But clearly, we see our revenues growing actually much faster then our cost structure is growing. This is thanks to 2 things. 1, of course, us Having more wallet share from the adjacent markets and ability to increase our Prices while keeping the customers, which is very important.

Speaker 1

It's not only about inflationary price increases. It's actually increasing the value that we offer to the customers and then Embracing this in a positive way. And of course, the second important thing, especially this year, While we have gone through our structuring, we have lowered our headquarters cost by 55%. And this is basically a sign that as a company we are agile, we can adapt to new conditions As we exited from Russia, we reflected this also in our HQ run rate cost and that of course will has its impact for next year. [SPEAKER DANIEL MARTINEZ VALLE:] I'm very happy currently with the margin expansion that we have demonstrated in Q3 with more than 4 percentage points.

Speaker 1

[SPEAKER JEAN FRANCOIS PRUNEAU:] And I think given our structure with higher growth expectations, I think this [SPEAKER JEAN FRANCOIS VAN

Speaker 2

BOXMEER:] This trend will continue at

Speaker 1

least 1 or 2 more years. Joop, anything you would like to add?

Speaker 2

Yes, Hakan. I think it's good to mention that, of course, in our Challenger markets, Bangladesh and Kyrgyzstan where we're not the number one. Our margins are a little bit lower and also more difficult Increase compared to the markets where we are number 1 like in Pakistan. So that also has an impact of course on how we

Operator

Our last question comes from Anjali Doshi. How do you view the optimal mix between HoldCo and OpCo debt and local currency? On a normalized basis, what is the cash level you would like to keep at Holdco?

Speaker 2

Yes, it's very clear that we want to deleverage The profit is total whereby we also want to leverage operating companies in local currency to a normalized level. That means that we will have going forward more lower currency debt than total debt at the center and that balance will shift. And what we'll also think about is that probably we need a cash level of several $300,000,000 $300,000,000 $400,000,000 at

Speaker 1

Thank you everybody for joining our call. So maybe if I may add something. Naturally over the last 2 years, I named it as the fortress of balance sheet. We needed it. We did it well.

Speaker 1

But of course, moving onwards, you should expect us Rational effective use of cash balances. And we realized that over Last 2 years, it was difficult to spot this. We had always ample liquidity and we needed it. I think that was the I think to do, but moving onwards, you will see us much more lean when it comes to cash management. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you everybody for joining our call. And with that, we'll close.

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Key Takeaways

  • VEON delivered 19% year-on-year local currency revenue growth and 30.6% EBITDA growth in Q3, with capex down 29.8% to $131 m and $2.2 bn of net cash on its balance sheet.
  • With the sale of its Russian operations complete, VEON has deleveraged significantly, achieving a pro forma net debt/EBITDA ratio of ~1.2x and moving to pursue an external credit rating.
  • All six operating markets posted double-digit local currency service revenue growth in Q3, underpinned by a 13% increase in 4G users (to 92 m) and a 23% rise in multiplay customers (to 30 m).
  • VEON’s digital operator strategy reached over 100 m monthly active digital service users, with fintech (JazzCash, Simply), entertainment (Tamasha, Toffee) and health/education apps driving higher ARPU and lower churn.
  • The company raised its full-year 2023 outlook, now targeting 18–20% revenue growth, 18–20% normalized EBITDA growth and capex intensity of 16–18% of sales.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
VEON Q3 2023
00:00 / 00:00