Banco BBVA Argentina Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
November 22, 2023

There are 5 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to BBVA Argentina's Third Quarter 2023 Financial Year Results Conference Call. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded and all participants will be in listen only mode during the company's presentation. After company's remarks are completed, there will be a question and answer First of all, let me point out that some of the statements made during this conference call may be forward looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions found in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1993 under U. S.

Operator

Federal Securities Law. These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward looking statements. Additional information concerning these factors is contained in BBVA Argentina's Annual Report on Form 20 F for the fiscal year of 2022 filed with the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Operator

Today with us, we have Ms. Carmen Murillo Arroyo, CFO Ms. Inez Lanusse, IRO and Ms. Belen Horkarde, Investor Relations. Ms.

Operator

Forcade, you may begin your conference.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and welcome to VVVArgentina's 3rd quarter 2023 fiscal year results conference call. Today's webinar will be supported by a slide presentation available on our Investor Relations website on the Financial Information section. Speaking during today's call will be Inesla Nuce, our Investor Relations Officer and Canvar Mauricio Rosso, our Chief Financial Officer, who will be available for the Q and A session. Please note that starting January 1, 20 20, as per Central Bank Regulation, we have begun reporting results applying hyperinflation accounting pursuant to IFRS rule IAS 29. For risk of comparability, 20222023 figures have been restated to reflect the accumulated effect of inflation adjustment for each period through September 30, 2023.

Speaker 1

Now, let me turn the call over to Ines.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Belen, and thank you all for joining us today. As we are all aware, Argentina has ended its presidential election process, which started on August 13 with the Paso elections, continued with the general elections on October 22 and ended with a second round for ballot ash on November 19, where Javier Milleis from La Libertadaganca Party was elected President, changing the current ruling party. The presidential inauguration ceremony will take place on December 10. The unfavorable macroeconomic conditions have continued to deteriorate, increasing the risk of economic and financial turbulence in the high uncertainty context of the electoral scenario. DVA Research expects GDP to fall by around 3% this year, 50 basis points less than previously forecasted, mainly due to better unexpected activity data.

Speaker 2

For the 1st month of 2024, strong corrections and increase in inflation is expected. In this context, GDP could contract 4% in 2024, 150 basis points more than what was previously expected. Referring to BDA Argentina's performance in the 1st 9 months of 2023, a better operating income was the product of an improvement in interest income due to an increase in the casino and yield of Central Bank Instruments and inflation linked bonds. At the same time, the effect of interest rates on loans, mainly leverage on commercial loans, serves the operating income growth. Now moving into business dynamics.

Speaker 2

As you can see on Slide 3 of the webcast presentation, our service offerings have evolved in such a way that at the end of September 23, retail digital clients' penetration reached 61%, while retail mobile clients reached 56%. The response on the side of customers has been satisfactory, and we are convinced this is the path to pursue in the aim of sustaining and expanding our competitive position in the financial system. Retail digital sales, measured in units, reached 93.8% in the Q3 of 2023 and represent 72.7% of the bank's total sales measured in monetary value. New customers acquisitions to digital channels reached 66% in the Q3 of 2023 from 72% in the Q3 of 2022. The bank actively monitors its business, financial conditions and operating results in the aim of keeping a competitive position to face contextual challenges.

Speaker 2

Moving to Slide 4, I would now comment on the bank's Q3 2023 financial results. PBA Argentina Q3 2023 net income was ARS 9,900,000,000, decreasing 75.9 percent quarter over quarter. This implied a quarterly ROE of 5.1% and a quarterly ROA of 0.9%. Operating income in the Q3 of 2023 was ARS 167,300,000,000, decreasing 1% from the ARS 169,000,000,000 recorded in the Q2 of 2023. Quarterly operating results are mainly explained by: 1, better interest income results through public securities and liquidity instruments and 2, an improvement in low loss allowances.

Speaker 2

These effects were negatively offset by 1, lower net fee income and 2, higher administrative expenses. It is worth noting a higher income from write down of assets and amortized costs and at fair value to other comprehensive income of ARS 4,000,000,000, mainly due to the sale of corporate bonds. In the quarter, there is a positive effect in the income tax line, considering the final judgment dictated by the Supreme Court concerning fiscal years 20142013. Applying the accounting information framework established by the Central Bank, the bank has recorded a positive result of ARS 7,400,000,000 as of September 30, 2023. Net income for the period was highly impacted by income from net monetary position as inflation increased from 23.8% in the Q2 of 2023 to 34.8% in the Q3 of 2023.

Speaker 2

Turning into the P and L lines in Slide 56. Net interest income for the Q3 of 2023 was ARS 270,200,000,000, increasing 8.1% quarter over quarter. In the Q3 of 2023, interest incomes in monetary terms increased more than interest expenses, mainly due to 1, an increase from repos 2, a higher position and yields of public securities, in particular of Leliqs and 3, the positive effect of income from loans, especially from discounted instruments, mainly due to productive investment credit lines for detainees. This was offset by the negative effect of interest expenses from checking accounts and increasing 17.3% compared to the Q2 of 2023. This is partially due to the higher average position in Leliq, added to a gradual increase in the monetary policy rate from 97% at the beginning of the quarter up to 118% at quarterend.

Speaker 2

Interest expenses totaled ARS 316,600,000,000, denoting a 26.5% increase quarter over quarter. Quarterly increase is described by higher checking accounts, in particular, interest bearing checking accounts and time deposits expenses. Interest from time deposits, including investment accounts, explained 70.5% of interest expenses versus 77.7 percent the previous quarter. Net fee income as of the Q3 of 2023 totaled ARS 17,600,000,000, decreasing 44.9 percent quarter over quarter. In the Q3 of 2023, fee income totaled ARS 39,500,000,000 falling 12.1%.

Speaker 2

The quarterly decrease is mainly explained by a 21% fall in fees from credit cards, considering that this line includes Untovera Urea royalty program and that there was a greater use of this program. Additionally, an increase in prices was implemented during September, not getting to offset the negative effect of inflation and denoting a 5.1% fall in fees income linked to liabilities. Regarding fee expenses, these totaled ARS 22,000,000,000, increasing 68.9 percent quarter over quarter. Greater expenses are explained by fees paid in foreign exchange transactions related to royalty affected by the devaluation of the local currency and client acquisition costs, which translates into a 4% increase in active clients in the Q3 of 2023. In the Q3 of 2023, loan loss allowances decreased 48.4% due to the release of provisions related to credit cards, derivate from the stability in the NPL ratio of the retail portfolio.

Speaker 2

During the Q3 of 2023, total operating expenses were ARS 137,200,000,000, increasing 9.7 percent quarter over quarter, of which 31% were personal benefits costs. Personal benefits increased 8.5% quarter over quarter. The quarterly increase is mainly explained by the projected inflation adjustment of vacation stock provisions and variable condensation. This adjustment is applied retroactively. Quarterly increases were also affected by the 32% collective agreement increase on wages, which implied a 97% accumulated increase as of the Q3 of 2023.

Speaker 2

As of the Q3 of 2023, administrative expenses increased 12.7% quarter over quarter. The quarterly increase is mainly explained by: 1, outsourced administrative expenses 2, greater rent expenses 3, taxes and 4, an increase in software services. All of these were related to an increase in the amount of services contracted and an increase in expenses of service contracted with the parent company. Being this said, the quarterly efficiency ratio as of the Q3 of 2023 was 82.4%, increasing compared to the 52% reported in the Q2 of 2023. The quarterly increase is explained by a higher increase in expenses than income, which considers the negative effect of inflation.

Speaker 2

The accumulated efficiency ratio as of the Q3 of 2023 reached 63.8% compared to the 56.6% reported in the Q2 of 2023 and improving versus the 69% reported in the Q3 of 2022. In terms of activity on Slide 7, private sector loans as of the Q3 of 2023 totaled ARS 1,400,000,000,000, decreasing 4.8% and 0.1% year over year. Loans to the private sector in pesos fell 5.3% in the Q3 of 2023. During the quarter, the decrease was especially driven by a 9.4% decline in credit cards, followed by an 11.7% fall in consumer loans and a 7.5% fall in other loans, which include commercial loans related to productive investment, credit lines or SMEs. The fall was partially offset by a 7.6% increase in discounted instruments, driven by the new productive investment credit line quarter.

Speaker 2

Loans to the private sector denominated in foreign currency increased 2.6%. Quarterly increase is mainly explained by a 4% growth in financing and pre financing of exports and a 9.4% growth in credit cards. Loans to the private sector in foreign currency, measured in U. S. Dollars, increased 1.5% quarter over quarter.

Speaker 2

During the quarter, the retail portfolio fell 9.9% and the commercial portfolio increased 1.5%. As observed in previous quarters, loan portfolios were impacted by the effect of inflation during the Q3 of 2023, which reached 34.8%. In nominal terms, BBVA Argentina managed to increase the retail, commercial and total loan portfolio by 21.5%, 36.8% and 28%, respectively, during the quarter, only surpassing quarterly inflation levels in the case of commercial loans. BBVA Argentina's consolidated market share of private sector loans reached 9.35% as of the Q3 of 2023, improving from the 8.47 percent a year ago. In the Q3 of 2023, asset quality ratio was 1.42% compared to the 1.38% recorded in the Q2 of 2023.

Speaker 2

The increase is mainly explained by a slight increase in the commercial nonperforming portfolio linked to the increment in the foreign currency exchange rates. On the funding side, as seen on Slide 8, private nonfinancial sector deposits in the Q3 of 2023 totaled ARS 2,300,000,000,000, decreasing 5.5 percent quarter over quarter. The bank's consolidated market share of private deposits reached 7.13% as of the Q3 of 2023. Private nonfinancial sector deposits decreased 5.7% compared to the Q2 of 2023. The quarterly change is mainly affected by a 17.9% decline in time deposits and a 22.3% fall in saving accounts, partially offset by a 23.9% increase in checking accounts, especially interest bearing checking accounts.

Speaker 2

Private nonfinancial sector deposits in foreign currency expressed in pesos increased 1% quarter over quarter. In terms of capitalization, BBVA Argentina continues to show strong solid indicators in the Q3 of 2023. Capital ratio reached 27.1%. The decline in the ratio was mainly driven by the impact of devaluation of the foreign exchange rate on risk weighted assets, combined with a nominal increment of lemurs. Exposure to the public sector in the Q3 of 2023, excluding Central Bank Instruments, represents 12.7% of total assets, above the 11% in the Q2 of 2023 and below the 16.8% reported by the system as of August 2023.

Speaker 2

It is worth mentioning that as of the date of this report, EEA Argentina has distributed the 6 installment scheduled on dividend payments from the ARS 50,400,000,000 total to be paid according to the plan published on June 7, 2023, and based on the terms agreed with the Central Bank. The bank's total liquidity ratio remained healthy at 76.6 percent of total deposits as of September 30, 2023. This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now take your questions. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session.

Speaker 3

Hello, Inez. Good morning, and thank you for the results and for the presentation prepared for this call. The first obvious question I have and I need not quite understand is the impact of inflation in the quarter. We understand it has been higher, but when we compare it to the other published results, it is particularly large as reported by you. We know it is complicated.

Speaker 3

We have many moving pieces that come into that. But perhaps give us understanding as to why it is higher for you and whether it is sustainable. With our coming quarter, we should expect you to be more affected by inflation if it continues to go up. This call refers to your loan portfolio, which was flat in inflation adjusted term. But actually that means that you have increased the market share quite considerably from 8.5% to 9.4% as you published here.

Speaker 3

Is that a squealing strategy on the part of the bank, something that you are trying to do? You are trying to be perhaps a bit more aggressive than the others? Or just a result of how the quarter came out? And finally, I saw a 40% increase in checking accounts. Is there any particular special reason for them?

Speaker 3

Thank you so much. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Hi, Carlos. Nice to talk to you again. Okay. Let me go through the first question. As you mentioned, yes, we had more inflation quite higher in the Q3 compared to the Q2.

Speaker 2

We are talking about levels of 35 100% to 24% in the 2nd quarter. Year to date accumulated inflation of 103 as of the Q3. Probably the this comparative effect compared to the other banks I have already reported has to do with the picture as of the Q3 of 2023 that we had less of our equity protected by of inflation. If you see our report, you can see that we are starting to have a position of dual bonds that are tied both to exchange rate or inflation adjustment. At the end of September.

Speaker 2

We didn't see that effect that clear in the Q3. But going forward as of the Q4 of this year, our protection of the equity is around 100% more or less, if we combine fair bonds, dual bonds and real estate. So that could be reverted as of the Q4 of this year. Also, yes, we had the inflation also affecting our costs and that also is reflected in our results. So yes, it was a tough quarter, but we believe that can be reverted in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 2

The second question, I heard about the market share, but could you repeat the second part of the question?

Speaker 3

Yes. So, I mean, when I look at your view from I think the private market share in private loans went from 8.5% to 9.4%. I mean that's a significant change. The rest of the banks are shrinking. You are not.

Speaker 3

So again, I wonder if it was just a coincidence that's how the quarter ended or a conscious policy to expand more than the others when some of the players are retracting or leaving the market?

Speaker 2

Okay. Yes. No, actually that is a key driver of our strategy. You can see that our commissions probably fell compared also to the other player and that has to do with the intent of increasing franchise in the country. We are sustainably growing our market share since year over year as you mentioned both in loans and deposits.

Speaker 2

And we are investing both to in market share, if you go product by product, we are being very aggressive in personal loans. We are gaining a lot of market share there. But again the strategy of the bank is to gain franchise and gain market share. And that is our driver towards the year end of 2023 and again also for 2024. Our driver is to grow more than the system, not despite that probably inflation sometimes doesn't the growth up end in real terms.

Speaker 2

But our aim is to gain market share. Does that answer your question? Okay. So that was the second question. And the third question you were asking about checking accounts, correct, the increase?

Speaker 3

Correct.

Speaker 2

Okay. That has to do that. You have to see the balance sheet that in the way the Central Bank asks you to present information in checking accounts. We also have those checking accounts that are remunerated that have a cost. And that as of the Q3, we were increasing our home sales deposits to place out deposit opportunistically in Leliq and Central Bank Instruments.

Speaker 2

So that's why that line is the site deposit particularly checking about is increasing. As of the 4th quarter that will start to shrink since we are starting to reduce balance sheet by reducing those type of wholesale deposits.

Speaker 3

Could you let us know the size of the non remunerated checking accounts?

Speaker 2

I don't have the figures, I can send you the figures later, the specific figures. We don't disclose that in the press.

Speaker 3

Roughly. I mean, it is about 700,000,000 I think in total. So I would say about 300,000,000,000, 200,000,000, 4 100,000,000?

Speaker 2

000? I can check that information for you and Sandy, if that's okay. I don't have it in front of me. But it's an important number the amount of checking accounts. All right.

Speaker 2

Let me check. Let me if it's okay with you, I can find the information and send it back to you if that's okay. Where are

Speaker 3

let

Speaker 2

me check, where I have some information like more or less the non remunerated checking account, it's around ARS376,000,000,000 and remunerated around ARS 260,000,000. But let me check those figures and send it back to you, if that's okay.

Speaker 3

Thank you so

Operator

much. The next question comes from Josefina Jimenez of Chainlink Global. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thank you for this opportunity to ask a question. We're curious how might dollarization affect the bank's financial results? It would be very helpful if you give us some guidance about that. According to at least from what we can glean, your net monetary assets at the end of 2Q amounted to approximately COP1 1,000,000,000,000. But that net monetary position led to a loss from income from net monetary position of ARS48 1,000,000,000 in 3Q.

Speaker 4

So if dollarization is placed into effect, how what might we expect? Should this type of loss from that monetary position be erased when dollarization is in place because there will be no more indexation. We would appreciate your comments on this, please. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Hello. Nice to hear from you guys again. Okay. Regarding the realization, as you know, Millet just was elected last Sunday. Honestly, we're not seeing the realization as a possibility this year and the following year.

Speaker 2

And there is still a lot of information to be disclosed when the President assumes annual fee what he can do or what he can't do. So we're not seeing dollarization as a volatility. Being that said, as I mentioned before, the way in which we protect our equity to reduce the effect of inflation is by both 2 factors the real space that protects our equity and the share bonds and the dual bonds that have increased our protection of equity to around 100% of the equity as of the Q4 of this year. So that's the way we have all the financial system to protect the equity of the bank. But again, dollarization is not something that we see as a possibility in 2034.

Speaker 2

And if I may

Speaker 4

have a follow-up question. Could you share with us the bank's outlook for inflation hereon without, let's say, if dollarization impact does not occur in 2024, what sort of inflation outlook is there?

Speaker 2

Yes. The figures that our research department is seeing today, you know that Argentina changes practically every day, but we are projecting our year end inflation around 200% for 2023 and for 2024 around 155 55, sorry. Being this said, you have to think that what our research department is seeing is that in the first month of 2024 probably you're going to have a much higher inflation. So the average inflation should be higher than 2023 during the all 2024. But year end, it should be less.

Speaker 2

It will be 155 compared to 200 year end of 2023. The other variable that the research department is projecting is the monetary policy rate that it is projecting to end moving towards the year end of 2024 at around 56%. So it's negative in real terms what we're seeing for next year.

Speaker 4

Could you repeat that last point? You lost me on this negative.

Speaker 2

The monetary policy rate that we are projecting is to end 2023 around 144%, which is a little bit higher than the 133 that we have today and ending 2024 with 56 percent. This decrease you should see more towards the end of the Q1 beginning of the second when the harvest takes place and that will represent a negative interest rate in real terms.

Speaker 4

So how would that affect then your financial results? That would be a significant level of negative rates, right, in 2024?

Speaker 2

We are despite this, we're still projecting, yes, you could see a decrease in ROEs and ROAs for 2024, but positives in real terms. With inflation that goes from 200 to 155,000,000,000,000,000 in average in 2024 is going to be higher than the 200. We are still seeing positive ROEs and ROIs, lower but positive.

Operator

This will conclude the question and answer section. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Ms. Lannoussay for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thank you for your time and let us know if you have further questions. Have a good day.

Operator

Thank you. That concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a

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Key Takeaways

  • Amid heightened electoral uncertainty and worsening macroeconomic conditions, BBVA Argentina expects GDP to contract about 3% in 2023 and 4% in 2024, with inflation surging above 100% year-to-date.
  • Q3 2023 net income plunged 75.9% quarter-over-quarter to ARS 9.9 billion, yielding a quarterly ROE of 5.1% and ROA of 0.9%, as inflation and higher costs weighed on operating results.
  • Net interest income climbed 8.1% QoQ to ARS 270.2 billion, driven by stronger yields on central bank instruments and loans, while interest expenses jumped 26.5% amid rising monetary policy rates.
  • Digital transformation remains a strategic focus, with 61% of retail clients using digital channels (56% via mobile) and digital transactions accounting for 93.8% of sales by unit and 72.7% by value in Q3.
  • BBVA Argentina pursued a market-share growth strategy, boosting private sector loan share to 9.35% (from 8.47% a year ago), supported by commercial loan growth, while maintaining a strong capital ratio of 27.1% and a liquidity ratio of 76.6%.
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Earnings Conference Call
Banco BBVA Argentina Q3 2023
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