Grupo Supervielle Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 28, 2023

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Grupo Supervielle Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This is Anartes, Thresher and IRO. A slide presentation will accompany today's webinar, which is available in the Investors section of Grupo Supervielle's Investor Relations website. Today's conference call is being recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in listen only mode.

Operator

There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions at the end of today's presentation. If you want to ask a question, you need to be connected to a Zoom platform. We will not be able to answer questions if you are connected from our phone line. Also, please make sure your first and last name appear in the Zoom platform you are using. You will be able to ask a question by voice or send questions in written form via the Q and A box in the Zoom platform anytime during the call.

Operator

Speaking during today's call will be Patricio Supervielle, our Chairman and CEO and Maria Nobilla, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us is Alejandro Stenkel, First Vice Chairman of the Board and CEO, Banco Superviele. All will be available for the Q and A session. As a reminder, today's call will contain forward looking statements based on management's current expectations and beliefs and subject to several risks and uncertainties. Expectations and beliefs and subject to several risks and uncertainties.

Operator

I refer you to our forward looking statements section of our earnings release and recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements to reflect new or changed events or circumstances. Patricia Supervielle, our Chairman and CEO, will start the call discussing the key highlights for the quarter, our progress achieved to date on our strategic priorities for the year as well as an update on macro views. Afterwards, Maria Nobile, our CFO, will take a little look at our performance and near term perspectives. This will be followed by a Q and A session.

Operator

Patricio, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Anna. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I will begin my presentation with Slide 3. The momentum gained in the first half of the year carried on through the Q3 allowing us to deliver ROE of 18% in real terms.

Speaker 1

This good performance was supported by effective asset and liability management, which contributed to a high NIM, significant growth in fee income across our business and a prudent approach to lending leading to record lows and NPLs. Our efforts to streamline operations over the past years have also yielded improved efficiency contributing to higher profitability. For the 1st 9 months, our ROE increased to 13% from negative low single digits during the same period last year, reflecting the successful execution of our strategic plan amidst an increasingly challenging macro and political environment with very weak loan demand. Now let me quickly recap on the progress achieved across our different strategic alternatives. Starting with retail customers, our enhanced digital capabilities and optimized branch network have allowed us to meet our goal of originating 50% of our personal loans digitally and remain focused on further advancing on this work.

Speaker 1

We successfully innovated with a quick investment function in our app that allow us customers to invest in our money market funds 24 per 7 days to safeguard the transactional funds from inflation. The number of retail clients investing for this platform increased by 10 times year on year reaching 100,000 in October. In turn, assets under management also grew significantly, up 6 times in nominal terms. As we continue to prioritize growth in the corporate segment, we added new digital functions and completed our offering of working capital financing product suite. New corporate clients increased 6% year on year, while we gained market share in foreign trade finance and site deposit balances.

Speaker 1

Loans increased 4% sequentially, while gains in share of wallet contributed to 120 basis points increase in the transactions ratio compared to December of last year. IOL, Infertino Online, our online broker, continued to drive fee growth, demonstrating our ability to acquire and retain customers achieving year on year increase across key KPIs. Monthly active users were up 4 times to 210,000 new accounts by over 7 times, transaction by 4 times and asset under management by 121 percent in real terms. Notably, we are achieving these results through a much more efficient and agile franchise, serving more clients more efficiently while improving NPS across all segments. Now please turn to Slide 4.

Speaker 1

Foreign exchange reserves continued to decline further impacted by the negative commercial balance. The 23% devaluation last August contributed to sharp increases in inflation in August September against the backdrop of increased reference rates. The reference rate for Leliqs decreased from 118% in August to 125% in September and 133% in October in the context of accelerated inflation. Against this backdrop, credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP dropped on all time low of nearly 7%, while deposits accounted for 17% of GDP. Lastly, the significant deterioration in

Speaker 2

the fiscal balance and price distortions

Speaker 1

Controls leading to the elections are putting additional pressure on inflation with year end consensus estimates expected at 185% for 2023 and 196% for the next 12 months. In turn, GDP is expected to contract 2% in 2023. The fiscal balance slipped below 2022 levels in September and is deteriorating even further in the Q4 following the significant hiking of government spending and reductions in income and VAT taxes introduced by the government during the presidential election campaign. With the fiscal primary deficit expected to reach 2.6 percent, exceeding the IMF origin target of 1.9%. Turning to Slide 5, looking ahead.

Speaker 1

Looking ahead, President-elect Javier Millet is committed to introducing major reforms to reduce state interventionism and address the long standing structural imbalances in our economy. Overall, he has stated there is no room for gradualism and plans to advance swiftly with major structural reforms. 1

Speaker 3

of

Speaker 1

the first items on the agenda is to address the Central Bank's remunerated liabilities with a market friendly approach and work towards eliminating the fiscal deficit. Plans also include deregulating capital flows and moving Argentina into an open market economy within a sustainable economic model. Importantly, he stated that his administration was strictly on our commitments. Plans also called for the privatization of state owned companies and a deregulation agenda. This was a clear and straightforward signal.

Speaker 1

With the expected adjustment in relative price and the peso devaluation, we foresee a difficult 6 to 12 months followed by a stabilization problem. The market response has been very positive and some of the uncertainty and questions around Malay are starting to be cleared away by these declarations. At Superviel, we are prepared to navigate the near term challenges and have hedged 100% of our capital against inflation. We look forward to leveraging our agility to rebound strongly when the economy begins to stabilize and grow

Speaker 2

again,

Speaker 1

supported by a strong 6% to 9% Tier 1 capital ratio. With this, let me turn the call to Mariano. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Patricio, and good day, everyone. Please refer to Slide 6 for an overview of our performance for the 9 month period ended September 2020. Importantly, throughout the year, we did not lose focus on executing the strategy we have discussed in the past. We are pleased that in line with our timing expectations, our ROE for the 9 months swung to a positive when compared with the same period of the prior year. More specifically, net income increased to Ps.

Speaker 4

19,000,000,000 with ROE at nearly 13%, improving from a net loss of Ps. 7,000,000,000 and negative ROE of almost 5% in the same period last year. A mix of strong revenue growth and lower costs and provisions drove this year on year improvement in profitability. On the revenue front, net financial income increased 16% or over Ps.27 billion, mainly reflecting higher spreads and volume on our investment portfolio. This good trend margin continued into October November.

Speaker 4

Net fees were up 9% or over Ps. 3,000,000,000, mainly on the back of solid performance at YOL and our Asset Management business. In terms of costs, the rightsizing and operating efficiency initiatives implemented in 2022 resulted in an 8% decline in personnel expenses, equivalent to Ps. 6,500,000,000 in savings. Moreover, lower costs from streamlining operations, including selective branches, closings and lower customer acquisition promotions contributed to a 6% reduction in administrative expenses and D and A, equivalent to savings of MXN 3,500,000,000.

Speaker 4

In turn, the plan mix shift away from consumer finance, coupled with growth in corporate loans and tight credit scoring contributed to a 21% decline in loan loss provisions, equivalent to MXN 3,500,000,000. Other income and losses declined 6% or Ps. 1,600,000,000 reflecting lower credit card promotions together with a reduction in turnover taxes paid on the leaks and repos despite higher average volumes. More details on savings in turnover tax can be found in our press release. Lastly, higher taxable income led to a higher income tax charge in 20.

Speaker 4

Now looking at our performance for the Q3, starting with Slide 7. Total assets grew below inflation in the quarter in an environment of overall weak retail credit demand and accelerated inflation, which reached 35%. We also reduced our position in our short term Central Bank Securities portfolio to nearly 40% of total assets at quarter end, down from 43% in the prior quarter. And the share of government securities to 6% this quarter from nearly 8% in the 2nd quarter. Deposits also increased below inflation sequentially, reflecting lower time deposits from retail customers and corporates, seasonally higher deposits through the prior quarter, reflecting the impact of the 13 salary and lower institutional funding as we manage assets and liabilities to maximize NIM and profitability.

Speaker 4

In turn, average asset volumes were up 3% sequentially as the average balance of the investment portfolio rose 12% as we maximize NIMA profitability, while the average deposit balance increased 4%. Moving on to Slide 8. While total loan growth for the quarter was below inflation, we outperformed the industry trend on a sequential basis, with loans in real terms declining 3% vis a vis drop of 7% for the system. During the first half of the year, our focus was on achieving profitable growth. However, in the Q3, we shift our strategy to selectively target high value corporate customers.

Speaker 4

We focused on those customers, particularly payroll loans, SMEs and middle market customers, where we have reciprocity with our transactional products. This approach helped us to recover our market share in corporate loans, which increased above inflation. Meanwhile, the proportion of consumer financing our total loans has continued to decrease. As shown on Slide 9, the total NPL ratio improved further, reaching a historic low of 1.7% in September, A healthier loan mix and the impact of tightening credit scoring criteria in prior quarters contributed to improvement in the NPL ratio. Moreover, early delinquency continued to improve sequentially.

Speaker 4

Lastly, the sale of some delinquent open market retail loans and former consumer finance loans contributed to bringing the coverage ratio to nearly 183%, up from 148% in the 2nd quarter. Turning to Slide 10. Net financial margin increased nearly 17% sequentially to over MXN 76,000,000,000 in the quarter. Higher investment portfolio volumes and yields more than offset lower loan portfolio NIM and contributed to an overall high NIM of 29% in the quarter. This represents a sequential increase of 2 60 basis points or 7 20 basis points year on year.

Speaker 4

Net service fee income stood out this quarter, increasing 14% sequentially and 30% year on year. As Patricia noted earlier, this increase was supported by a good performance across the business, with particular emphasis at Yield and our Asset Management business. Now please turn to Slide 12. The efficiency ratio for the quarter improved further to just below 52% from close to 63% in the prior quarter and 73% in the year ago quarter. On a sequential basis, this good performance was driven by revenue growth of 17% and reduction in expenses of close to 7%.

Speaker 4

For the 9 month period, expenses declined nearly 7%, while revenues increased 17%. Moving on to capitalization on Slide 13. We further strengthened our capital base, increasing our Tier 1 ratio by 120 basis points sequentially to 16.9% at quarter end. Improved results and inflation adjustment of capital mainly drove the increase in the capital ratio and more than offset higher risk weighted assets and deductions. Before opening for Q and A, please turn to Slide 14 to review our perspectives for the full year 2023.

Speaker 4

Considering the recent macro trends discussed by Patricio, we have updated our perspective the following line items. With respect to asset quality, given the recent performance, we now expect to close the year with an NPL ratio of between 1.5% to 2%, a slight improvement from our prior expectations of 2.5% to 3%. Given the solid NIM performance of 25% year to date, we anticipate NIM for the year to remain slightly higher than the level reported in the 1st 9 months, up from approximately 24% expected in our prior call. With respect to fees, we now expect the brokerage and the Asset Management business to maintain the solid performance of 3rd in the quarter, while expectations for all other fees remain unchanged. This means sustained growth in brokerage fees, benefiting from higher volatility, soft insurance fees in real terms and the bulk of bank fees to individuals expected to reprice in line with inflation.

Speaker 4

In addition, while we continue to expect digital transformation and related IT investments to grow below inflation, we now expect to see an acceleration in these investments in the 4th Q2023. In terms of profitability, we now anticipate ROE to be in the range of 10% to 12%, up from levels of close to 10% observed in the first half of the year. But below the 9 month ROE as inflation is expected to be higher in the last month of the year when the FX increases and inflation adjusted bonds reprice with a lag of 60 days. Lastly, we expect to close the year with a Tier 1 ratio in the range of 17% to 18%, up from the 14% to 16% anticipated earlier. As a reminder, 100 percent of our capital remains hedged against inflation.

Speaker 4

Beyond these changes, note that our 2023 expectation for loans and deposits remain unchanged from our prior quarter yields. Looking at 2024, with inflation expected to remain at high levels, we expect loans to continue growing below inflation in the first half of the next year, showing signs of recovery starting in the second half of the year if a stabilization plan is successful in helping to control a lower inflation levels. In turn, for next year, we expect deposits to begin recovering and growing in line with inflation. We expect to discuss our views for 2024 in more detail in our year end call as we have more visibility on the economic plan for a year ahead. Now we are ready to open the floor for questions.

Speaker 4

Anna, please go ahead.

Operator

Thank you, Mariano. At this time, we will be conducting the question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you need to be connected to a Zoom platform. And to ask a question, please press the raise your hand button and press it again to withdraw. Or you can also send your questions in written form via the Q and A box.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Ana. Hi, good morning, Patricio, Mariano. Ana, thanks for taking my call. My first question will be on the political outlook for Argentina. You have shown a couple of slides on these.

Speaker 2

But what do you think could be the key execution rates for the new administration? How do you see the possibility to implement structural reforms with a divided Congress as neither the officialism or all the rights parties combined will have the majority. And also, I think it will be interesting to hear your view if Chile starts to cut jobs in the current government administration, if you see if there could be a risk for social unrest. Then my second question is on your Leliq's exposure. When looking to your balance sheet, it seems that half of the securities are Leliq's.

Speaker 2

And it's roughly 26% of your total assets. So, well, I wanted to hear your view on what are you expecting to do with LELIX. Yesterday, we heard Banco Macro trying to get rid of the Leliqs by year end. So wanted to hear from you, is that something that you are also targeting or that will be more gradual? And for my last question is on your ROE.

Speaker 2

So, for this year, you have been guiding 10% to 12%. As you pointed out, it will be lower than the 1st 9 months, considering that in December, we can have higher FX depreciation and higher inflation. But just thinking on what should we think about next year, we think this ROE could be relatively stable, a little bit higher, lower. Some hint on that will be also very helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thank you, Ammetto. I will start by your first question, which is the execution risk of the Miele program. First of all, we can see that Millet has shown to be a pragmatist. And this is interesting because in the way he's handling the organization of the different working teams to implement his reform.

Speaker 1

And I know it's quite fluid, but it's he's pragmatic. And also in the way he's dealing with potential international relations. In terms of the agenda, the reform agenda, I think that the first

Speaker 4

step will

Speaker 1

be the approval, get the approval of the national budget. And we have discussed this in our team and we believe that it will be swift. And this has happened in the past. I mean, with new governments, he has a clear mandate and we don't see reasons for not approving the national budget. Then President-elect Gillet has shown has said that he wants to give to the Congress a Jumba law including probably we don't know yet, but probably it will include an agenda of deregulation and how to tackle the financial deficit.

Speaker 1

So this probably this will be in the 1st part of the year. I mean this is super low. And probably there will be a second generation laws concerning privatizations that will happen in the second half of the year of twenty 4. Another thing which is quite important also is that the economic advisers at this stage that have told us that economic advisers of Malay have told us that they want to implement a fiscal financial equilibrium or fiscal financial balance from day 1, which implies reducing 5% of GDP and that this eventually they can do without Congress, the need of Congress approval. Of course, there are various ways and it's not easy, but we have discussed that to achieve this 5% of reduction in GDP, they would have to tackle the reduction of set of public works, certain reduction of public works, some transfers to provinces, some items in social security and also deficit in public enterprise is going to be more complicated probably because it will need privatizations, but we believe that certain subsidies also could be tackled and with the change of relative prices.

Speaker 1

And also there will be a swing in the revenues from taxes from last year. So that will help improve their fiscal situation. And concerning the social unrest that you mentioned, yes, there is a it is possible that there will be some social unrest, but we believe with our team that it will be confined to the grant Buenos Aires and grant Rosario. And the rest of the country where there was a clear mandate for a change of government, We believe that the people will continue working and do their day jobs every day and there will not be any meaningful social unrest. So I hope that this is a very important element also is about the Supreme Court.

Speaker 1

We believe that Millet will we propose the 5th candidate, which is vacant. And this is going to be important for the to strengthen the independence of the judiciary. So that's concerning your first question. And the second question is LELIQ exposure. LELIQ exposure.

Speaker 1

Yes. Okay. All right. Yes, the LELIQ exposure is we have been we had a substantial exposure at the end of the 3rd Q and this has been reduced significantly over this quarter at this moment. So, and not only Leliqs, but also repos.

Speaker 1

We believe that, I mean, having heard what was conveyed by the economic advisers that they want to go for a market friendly solution that there will be no surprises that there will be no harm to the bank's networks. I think we all went more at ease. But that having said that, we have decided to, as I said before, to significantly reduce our exposure and we will see what the measures they want to take in the future. But simply let me point out that the reason we have this Leliqs in the past was completely linked to the fact that the government imposed a regulation to of a floor in time deposits, in the rates of time deposits, that the only way to compensate that was investing in the LEEDS. And but we believe that this will be removed.

Speaker 1

I mean, this punitive regulation will be removed and done swiftly and that there will be also free rates both for liabilities and assets in the next year. So I don't know if you want to add something on the Leaks.

Speaker 4

I can only add to your comments. Hi, Ernesto. Thank you for your question. I only add that, as Patricio said, we have significantly reduced exposure to the LECs during October November. We only have the LECs that we use for minimum cash requirements.

Speaker 4

Remember that part about 5% of the new cash reserves, we can integrate with Elix. So the opportunity cost to be in cash instead of Elix is very high there. But that is only a minor amount. As of today, it's only Ps 50,000,000,000, which is significantly lower than what we had at September 30. But also, we reduced the overall exposure to the Central Bank, not only going from Lelyx to repos, which that's a first step because they are repos are only one day.

Speaker 4

So that's very short term. But we are also reducing by half. We are now have the exposure to the Central Bank instruments as compared to September 30. So that's also a major reduction. We are reducing basically deposits from institutional investors, institutional depositors as mutual funds and money market funds.

Speaker 4

So we have this lower balance, which is something we can manage just in the short term. And then regarding ROE, I think your third question was regarding ROE in 2024. But of course, it's still very hard to predict because we don't know all the measures that the government will take starting December 10. But what we can imagine, as Patricio said, is that the regulations, punitive regulations will be removed from day 1. So that's positive for ROE.

Speaker 4

But on the other hand, we want to be at least in the 1st month of the government where we see that it's going to be a period of very high inflation or volatility. We want to be also more conservative. As we mentioned, we are reducing exposure to Central Bank. We might increase something in treasury bonds as the perspective can be better if the fiscal deficit program is addressed. But with the Morgan Sabatina stance, our ROE can be in the range of 5% to 10%.

Speaker 4

Again, it's very early to predict. We may adjust this when we report the full year results. But that's our current estimate.

Speaker 2

Now thank you very much for all your answers. Very detailed. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you, Ernesto. There is a question from Carlos Gomez at HDFC. Hello, Carlos.

Speaker 5

Hello, Anna. Thank you for the call and thank you for taking my question. First, actually congratulations on the result because this quarter has been quite different from before. Now the question is this seems to be related to your position in government sorry, in securities and the fact that you are reducing your position, is there going to be a correlation there? Do you expect I mean, from what I understand, I think the answer is yes.

Speaker 5

Do you expect that your profitability will be at a different level when if you reduce the position significantly into next year? And second, you seem to have taken a more proactive approach to lending. At the same time, you expect a contraction or a difficult period in the beginning of next year. Will you continue to be lending, I would say, more aggressively gaining market share versus your peers into the next year? Or you'll wait until the economic situation is a bit more clear?

Speaker 5

Thank you so much.

Speaker 1

You want to go for that?

Speaker 6

Sure, Anthony. Good morning, Carlos, and thank you for your question. In terms of our exposure and to government securities and the fact that we would see less profitability going forward, it's difficult to establish correlations with the levels of uncertainty we see going forward and with lack of information as to exactly what the package that will be sent to Congress contains. We think that what will happen is, as Mariano pointed out earlier, there will be significant deregulation in the financial sector. And that actually is an opportunity and generally will allow us to, for example, go away or move away from something that was very exceptional in terms of policy like having flow rates which being deregulated will allow us to price deposits to market levels and therefore we believe in that context as the program moves forward have a more deregulated environment and allow us to maintain profitability.

Speaker 6

But quite frankly it's very difficult to at this point be certain of what this will be. In terms of lending, we will continue to be proactive because we will be focusing in the sectors that we consider are winners of this significant change in macroeconomic policy. Basically export oriented companies that are in agribusiness in different sectors throughout all the country and also in energy. And these sectors will experience significant growth and we also see, for example, certain sections of construction like private residential construction picking up significantly. So if you look at the specific opportunities within the average, you will be able to pick a couple of sectors with the growth potential and we will be going after those and we will continue to be proactive in lending to them.

Speaker 5

Okay.

Speaker 1

Carlos, let me add something to what Alejandro said concerning the loans. If you look back to our history, we had always high needs due to a good share in personal loans. And that was mainly due to the segment of senior citizens. However, over the last few years, there was a program from the government, which is called Argentina that provided very much subsidized loans to the retirees. This will be removed.

Speaker 1

And this will help us again regain much more I mean much better needs for personal loans in the future in an important business segment than we have also. So I wanted to identify these important.

Speaker 5

Okay. That's an important consideration. And would you have a target as to how much of that you can do in the regulatory sector?

Speaker 1

Well, we have our own at this stage around between 600,000, 700,000 clients in this sector. And the loan the demand is very low because demand was, as I said before, it was the government, the social security that was providing these loans. But with the fiscal therapy that will be implemented, these type of loans do not make sense. So it will be we expect that we'll if we go.

Speaker 5

Okay. That's clear. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you, Carlos. We have another question coming from Brian Flores at Citibank. Hello. Good morning, Brian. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hi, Tim. Good morning. Can you hear me well?

Speaker 1

Yes.

Speaker 3

Yes. Perfect. Thank you. And as Carlos did, congratulations on the results. I think they were very strong.

Speaker 3

I think maybe the sector has played defense extraordinarily, given the context. And now I think we perhaps we might be moving to too often, right? And I have a question that is related to what Carlos asked, which is there might be a period, probably the first half of next year, where inflation is high, maybe credit demand is still starting to come but still not there. I just wondering if you're budgeting maybe or slight chances that you see of seeing low single digit ROEs in the first half and then maybe a strong expansion in the second half? Or how are you thinking about that, right?

Speaker 3

Because I think midterm is constructive, and I think I agree with all the visions you've shared. But maybe in the first part of the next year, we might see some difficulties still. Do you think this is correct? Or do you think I am being a bit more pessimistic? Should I be a bit more optimistic?

Speaker 3

Anything is appreciated. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Okay. First of all, I would like to state that we have been preparing for the last 3 years for this change of profound structural changes that are occurring in the country. And we have an aggressive growth plan, particularly in corporates that we started already in the Q3. We have gained we have a model which is a product oriented model and we have achieved significant operational efficiencies simply to state and this is related to your question because the bank has over the last 3 years, we have 800 employees less. The group level, we have 2,000 employees less.

Speaker 1

We have closed 50 branches. We have terminated a consumer finance business that was loss making business. And we are positioned, as Alejandro mentioned earlier, that we are positioned to provide loans in companies that belong to value chains of export led industries. However, as you well said, with high inflation, demand is very low at this stage. And but consistent with what we believe will be their economic plan, the economic plan to tackle the LILIX, there will be deregulation of rates.

Speaker 1

That means that we will be able to fix the there will be market rates for liabilities and market rates for assets. And that means that we will be able to start providing loans with positive margins for corporations in the 1st month because individuals probably with high inflation, they will be not taking loans. But we believe that, yes, for a certain period of time, it will be more difficult to give loans, as you said. But after the stabilization after the let's say the change in relative prices and implementation of the initial steps of program, we expect that after a period of high inflation, there will be the people will have an expectation of lower inflation than they will be start to have more demand of loans in the second half of

Speaker 2

the

Speaker 1

year. So I don't know if you want to add.

Speaker 6

Brian, this is Alejandro. 2 or 3 notes to your question. One is our business as is also the economy of the country is cyclical. And typically you will find that the first half is always a bit slower than the second half. Of course, on top of this, in the first half of twenty twenty four, you will have a lot of fiscal adjustments and the increase of inflation after some kind of adjustment to the exchange rate.

Speaker 6

However, a couple of things for you to look at as we go through the first half. One is you will have a much better energy panels because we used to have a net import of energy that we required and we are now will be able to do export once the in the last quarter basically in the last quarter during the Q3 of this year, you had the connection of tax that will allow you to be in the condition of exporting energy. And second, there was a significant impact during this year of the drought, of the tail of the drought that we see now moving clearly away because the NIMEO is consolidated too. So those two factors will actually help you deal with what would otherwise be a very recessionary context, particularly for consumption. But companies or enterprises linked to these value chains will probably continue to experience growth and will drive or help drive exports and the economy moving forward.

Speaker 3

That is super helpful. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you, Brian. I think we have a follow-up from Carlos Gomez. I don't know Carlos, if this is correct or only that you will forget to withdraw your hand?

Speaker 5

No, no. It's actually correct. So my question is about your hedging policy. As you mentioned, you have 100% of the capital hedge. Can you remind us, is this purely through the securities portfolio, the dealer bonds?

Speaker 5

Or do you use real estate more actively now? Or are there any other elements in your hedging strategy that are not those 2? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you. This is an interesting question, because I think it differentiates us from the rest of the banks. We have a substantial position in mortgages which we built during the macro period and which represent today around 22% of our net worth. And this is quite interesting because it's more it's bigger than other banks.

Speaker 1

So it's on the private sector. Then the rest is yes, the rest is buildings and real estate and public treasury bonds. I don't know if you want to expand on that, Mariano.

Speaker 4

Yes. Those are the main the 3 different asset classes, real estate mortgages and treasury bonds, where we have dual bonds, which as you know, they adjust by inflation or devaluation, the higher or several bonds, which adjust by inflation. So that's basically our hedge of net equity. And we also have a loan position in individual bonds. So that also can be a source of short term gains going into the Q4 and the

Speaker 5

Q1. Yes, actually, that was my follow-up. So the hedge is versus inflation, right? And then the U. S.

Speaker 5

Dollar position, I believe that your maximum is 5% of net worth or as a financial group, you can perhaps go a bit further on that?

Speaker 4

Yes. Our spot position can only be balanced or short. But the spot position, we are balanced. Then we can go up to 5% of Tier 1 with derivatives as futures and then extend to 30% with dollar linked bonds, but dual bonds do not account in that position. So we virtually have no limits on dual bonds.

Speaker 4

So that's why we have a longer position for the higher of the valuation or for inflation.

Speaker 5

So could you give us an idea about the current level of your loan position in U. S. Dollars?

Speaker 4

Now we are approximately at 125% of our equity. So we have 100% inflation, plus 25% in 12 months.

Speaker 5

That's very clear. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you, Carlos. I think we have reached the end of the Q and A session. So thank you for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in our company. We look forward to meeting more of you over the coming weeks or months and providing financial and business updates next quarter.

Operator

In the interim, we remain available to answer any questions that you may have.

Speaker 4

Thank

Operator

you and have a good day.

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Key Takeaways

  • Grupo Supervielle delivered a Q3 ROE of 18% in real terms and a year-to-date ROE of 13% (vs negative last year), driven by high NIM, strong fee income growth and improved operational efficiency while maintaining record low NPLs.
  • The bank’s digital transformation advanced as 50% of personal loans were originated online, its app’s quick-investment feature grew retail investors 10-fold to 100,000, and its IOL broker saw users up 4x and AUM up 121% in real terms.
  • Prudent credit management pushed the NPL ratio to a historic low of 1.7% in Q3 with a coverage ratio of 183%, reflecting tighter scoring and selective lending to high-value corporate clients.
  • Capital strength improved with a Tier 1 ratio of 16.9% (up 120bps sequentially) and 100% of capital hedged against inflation; 2023 guidance remains for NPLs of 1.5–2%, NIM slightly above 24%, ROE of 10–12% and Tier 1 of 17–18%.
  • Amid extreme inflation (185% in 2023, 196% next 12 months), FX pressures and fiscal deficits, the incoming administration’s market-friendly reforms offer stabilization opportunities, and Supervielle is positioned to navigate near-term volatility.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Grupo Supervielle Q3 2023
00:00 / 00:00