Magna International Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 3, 2023

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Q3 2023 Results. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question and answer session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, Friday, November 3, 2023. I would now like to turn the conference over now to Louis Tonelli, Vice President, Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go right ahead.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Tommy. Hello, everyone, and welcome to our conference call covering our Q3 of 2023. Joining me today are Swamy Gvardnieri and Pat McCann. Yesterday, our Board of Directors met and approved our financial results for the Q3 of 2023 as well as our updated 2023 outlook. We issued a press release this morning outlining our results.

Speaker 1

You'll find the press release, today's conference call webcast, the slide presentations go along with the call and our updated quarterly financial review all in the Investor Relations section of our website at magna.com. Before we get started, just as a reminder, the discussion today may contain forward looking information or forward looking statements within the meaning of applicable Such statements involve certain risks, assumptions and uncertainties, which may cause the company's actual or future results and performance could be materially different than those expressed or implied in these statements. Please refer to today's press release for Complete description of our Safe Harbor disclaimer. Please also refer to the reminder slide included in our presentation that relates to our commentary today. And with that, I'll pass it over to Swamy.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Louis. Good morning, everyone. I appreciate you all joining our call today as we share our Q3 earnings results. Before I share some of the details, I want to thank my team for the continued progress and solid results. So let's get started.

Speaker 2

Some key highlights to mention before I dive into the details. Our organic sales grew by 10% Year over year surpassing weighted production by 4% excluding complete vehicles and 2% including complete vehicles. Our Q3 showcased strong operating performance with higher organic sales once again contributing to robust earnings that represented a significant improvement year over year. We continue to benefit from our activities in operational excellence and cost We have raised our 2023 adjusted EBIT margin and adjusted net income outlook ranges for 2023, demonstrating solid operating performance even with the negative impact of the UAW strike in the 3rd and 4th quarters. And we recently announced Our commitment to achieving net 0 across Magna by 2,050.

Speaker 2

Our industry continues to experience incremental improvements, including reduced supply constraints, Stronger and more stable production schedules and resilient auto sales in a number of markets. However, the global economy continues to face some interlocking challenges, including continuing elevated labor inflation, Higher interest rates, geopolitical risks and slowing economic growth. These challenges are impacting our entire industry. In North America, the Detroit Tree experienced UAW labor stoppages for about 6 weeks, which cost the industry approximately 220,000 units. The UAW has now reached tentative agreements With all 3 OEMs, which need to be ratified, our outlook reflects the full extent of the strike.

Speaker 2

We remain highly focused on containing costs and improving our margins. This is being achieved through ongoing operational improvement and cost recovery initiatives as well as executing flawless launches across Magna. At our virtual investor event in September, we provided an update on the progress of our go forward strategy. Our ongoing investments in megatrend areas are driving significant growth over the coming years, including 35% +inelectrification, 75% plus in battery enclosures and 45 plus percent in active safety. Most importantly, our portfolio is substantially aligned with the car of the future, which we expect to drive sales growth regardless of the pace of powertrain electrification.

Speaker 2

Where possible, we are working to mitigate risks, including by installing capital in tranches and employing different cost sharing models with our customers. At the same time, we have been accelerating our activities around operational excellence to ensure we remain at the forefront of manufacturing and exceeding our customers' expectations in all areas. We expect about 150 basis points of margin expansion from our collective efforts here, including about half that amount this year. And we are leveraging capabilities that already exist within Magna to unlock opportunities with new models and markets as they develop. It is early days for us in this area, but we have already had some traction.

Speaker 2

We have experienced 5x growth In battery swaps in our Battery as a Service venture and are experiencing about 1,000 deliveries a day utilizing Magna produced We expect about $300,000,000 in new mobility sales by 2027, with a significant runway for additional profitable growth beyond that. We expect our strategy to deliver continued growth above market, improved margins and returns and further shift in our portfolio towards megatrend areas. This should drive increased shareholder value in the years to come. We also took a significant step forward in our commitment to sustainability and environmental stewardship By submitting net zero emission targets for validation by the science based targets initiative, With a goal to achieve net 0 by 2,050, together with meeting our near term scope 1, 2 and 3 targets by 2,030. Among the steps involved in meeting this target is transitioning to 100% Renewable electricity use in our European operations by 2025 and globally by 2,030.

Speaker 2

We have already made progress towards previously established sustainability actions. This year, we are on track to achieve our commitment To reduce global energy intensity by 10% in all manufacturing facilities with a target of 20% reduction by 2027. And more than 30 Magna divisions have achieved carbon neutrality over the last 2 years. With that, I'll pass the call over to Pat.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Swamy, and good morning, everyone. As Swamy indicated, once again, we delivered strong earnings this past quarter despite the onset of the UAW strike in September. Comparing the Q3 of 2023 to 2022, consolidated sales were $10,700,000,000 up 15% compared to a 4% increase in global light vehicle production. Adjusted EBIT was $615,000,000 And adjusted EBIT margin increased 90 basis points to 5.8%. Adjusted EPS came in at 1.46 up 33% year over year.

Speaker 3

And free cash flow generated in the quarter was $23,000,000 compared to a $210,000,000 use in the Q3 of 2022, despite our higher capital spend this quarter to support record program awards in 2022. During the quarter, we paid dividends of $128,000,000 and we increased our adjusted EBIT margin And earnings outlook despite the negative impact of the UAW strike. Let me take you through some of the details. North American and European light vehicle production were up 7% 14%, respectively, while Chinese production declined 2%, Net income of 4% increase in global production. Our consolidated sales were 10,700,000,000 up 15% over the Q3 of 2022.

Speaker 3

On an organic basis, our sales also increased to 10% year over year for a 2% growth over market or 4% growth over market excluding complete vehicles. The sales increase was primarily due to higher global vehicle production, the launch of new programs, adjustments to recover certain higher input costs, The acquisition of Veoneer Active Safety, net of the divestiture of our manual transmissions plant in Europe and the net strengthening of currencies against the U. S. Dollar. These are partially offset by lower complete vehicle sales, mainly due to a program changeover and an estimated $55,000,000 impact from the UAW strike.

Speaker 3

Adjusted EBIT was $615,000,000 and adjusted EBIT margin was 5.8% compared to 4.9 in the Q3 of 'twenty two. Our continued focus on operational excellence and performance on cost initiatives Is driving strong earnings on higher sales. This was despite the negative impacts of a program changeover in complete vehicles, The UAW strike, which we estimated cost us about 10 basis points and acquisitions net of divestitures. Combined, we generated 40 basis points of net improvements. Adjusted EBIT margin was also positively impacted by About 60 basis points of net operational items, which include productivity and efficiency improvements at certain facilities And lower net engineering costs, about 50 basis points related to lower net input costs and higher equity income, which benefited margin by about 15 basis points.

Speaker 3

EBIT margin was negatively impacted by Commercial items that had a net unfavorable impact in the quarter, which subtracted about 75 basis points year over year. Interest expense increased primarily reflecting senior notes issued and borrowings in the first half of the year, as well as higher interest rates. Our adjusted effective income tax rate came in at 21.9%, largely in line with our 2023 expectations, but lower than Q3 of last year. Adjusted net income attributable to Magna was $419,000,000 up 32% over the Q3 of 2022 reflecting Higher EBIT and the lower tax rate, partially offset by higher interest expense and minority interest. Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.46 up 33% compared to Q3 last year.

Speaker 3

This increase is the result of higher net income and fewer shares outstanding. The reduced number of shares outstanding substantially reflect The impact of share repurchases in 2022. Turning to a review of our cash flows and investment activities. In the Q3 of 'twenty three, we generated $821,000,000 in cash from operations before changes in working capital, up $230,000,000 or 39 percent from 2022, and we invested $24,000,000 in working capital. Investment activities in the quarter included $630,000,000 for fixed assets and $176,000,000 for investments, other As expected, CapEx was higher than the $364,000,000 in Q3 last year to support our record program awards in 2022.

Speaker 3

Overall, we generated free cash flow of $23,000,000 in the Q3. We also paid $128,000,000 in dividends. Our balance sheet continues to be strong with investment grade ratings from the major credit agencies. At the end of Q3, we had over $4,500,000,000 in liquidity, including about $1,000,000,000 of cash. Currently, our adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio is 2.02.

Speaker 3

Excluding cash we're holding to help pay down our €550,000,000 senior notes coming due in the 4th quarter, Our ratio would be 1.98. This ratio continues to decline and is tracking better than were expected at the end of last quarter as a result of our improved operating results. We anticipate a reduction of our leverage ratio by the end of this year and a Further decline through 2024. Next, I will cover our updated outlook, which incorporates higher than previously expected Vehicle production in both Europe and China, including as a result of better production in Q3. Our assumption for production in North America is unchanged Our previous outlook as stronger than expected production was offset by the impact of the UAW strike.

Speaker 3

We have not assumed any lost D3 production is made up in the Q4. We also assume exchange rates in our outlook will approximate current rates. We now expect a slightly weaker euro, Canadian dollar and RMB for 2023 relative to our previous outlook. We have narrowed our expected sales range with essentially the same midpoint as our outlook last outlook. This mainly reflects higher European and Chinese vehicle production in the second half of twenty twenty three, offset by the net stronger U.

Speaker 3

S. Dollar relative to our And the estimated $310,000,000 impact of the UAW strike. We communicated last quarter that beginning in Q3 Magna's adjusted EBIT would exclude the amortization of all acquired intangibles. Our August outlook excluded our estimate of the amortization of intangibles associated with the acquisition of Veoneer Act of Safety, About $30,000,000 perhaps of $23,000,000 Our final analysis of all other acquisitions resulted in about $50,000,000 of additional annual amortization to be excluded from our adjusted EBIT calculation. This additional adjustment amounts to Approximately 10 basis points in EBIT margin.

Speaker 3

We have updated our historical presentation of adjusted EBIT to reflect these revised calculations. As a result of our strong performance so far in 2023, our expectations for continued operational execution And despite the negative impact of the UAW strike, which we estimate to be between 10 15 basis points, We have narrowed and raised our adjusted EBIT margin. We now expect our EBIT margin for 2023 to be in the range of 5.1 to 5.4, which compares to 4.9 to 5.3 previously, adjusted by the 10 basis points to reflect amortization of all acquired intangibles. We're increasing our equity income range, mainly reflecting our better than forecasted performance in Q3. As a result of increasing our adjusted EBIT margin range, We are also raising our range for adjusted net income attributable to Magna.

Speaker 3

Our interest expense, Tax rate, capital spending and free cash flow expectations are unchanged from our last outlook. In summary, we are pleased with our strong operating performance in the 3rd quarter. Once again, we outgrew our end markets by 2% on a consolidated basis and 4% excluding complete vehicles. We've raised our outlook for 2023 and we have continued confidence in our plans for margin expansion for years to come. Thank you for your attention.

Speaker 3

We will be happy to answer your questions.

Operator

Thank And we'll proceed with our first question on the line from Chris McNally with Evercore.

Speaker 2

Thanks so much team.

Speaker 4

I appreciate All the detail. Maybe we could start with the obviously, the big topic of the week is around EV demand. And maybe you could just kind of Just level set, just remind us your exposure. Particularly in Powertrain, you have $800,000,000 last year growing to I think it's about 1,000,000,000 This year, you have targets of, I think $4,000,000,000 out in the out years. What percentage is maybe pure EV versus 48 volt and hybrid, that would be helpful.

Speaker 4

And then just a pace on battery enclosures, which is obviously a new growth area, Just sort of anything around 2023, 2024, again, you've given longer term targets. And just remind us maybe some of the programs or geographic Exposure, those are the big questions I think that you'll probably get several times in the queue from the rest of the analysts. So maybe we can start there.

Speaker 2

Hi, Chris. Good morning. We will try to address the different aspects of the questions. I think from an EV perspective, just generally to address macro, We've always said electrification is a secular irreversible trend and it's here to stay, But the question was going to be the predictability of the take breaks, Right. How soon is it going to come?

Speaker 2

So it's basically the very long tail, and it's still very early days of electrification. Also, if you look at the last 3 or 4 years as we talked about electrification, we have generally said The global penetration will be somewhere in the mid-30s in percentage by 2,030. Given those circumstances, our policy or our call it strategy has been to Look at the volumes by program, by customer, look at external sources, IHS and our own internal volume predictions and have been using that To come up with the numbers that you talked about. In the past, like not just related to EV, right, The volume uncertainty is has been there on every program as we go back a few decades, and we have a mechanism to go through that In our own planning process, in how we put the capital forward, how we plan scalability and modularity, but Beyond that, we won't have the discussions with the customers when there is a significant change in volumes. But All that said, a few questions specifically that you asked about.

Speaker 2

In electrification of powertrain specifically, We talked about $3,000,000,000 in 2025 managed sales and about $4,000,000,000 during our Investor Day in 2027. And when we talk about those numbers, we have always taken into account the The mechanism that I talked about of coming up with our own volumes, looking at multiple sources, looking at the take rates, Which I would say are a little bit more conservative than what the customers in the markets have been talking, right? So that's one piece. On the actually included side, I think, Louis, we are in the $300,000,000 $400,000,000 this year, and we were talking about 1.6 1,000,000,000 by 2025. And there we talked about the product line where we are using existing assets, Whether it's castings or extrusions or stampings, you know, faxes and so on.

Speaker 2

And the dedicated Assembly lines are considered tooling, which are paid by the customer, right? So that continues and that is also a Strategic product in the sense that when you look at the frames and the underbody and so on, we see a path going forward. And we talked about the analogy to the frames in the past where we did in the late 90s, and we continue to do the 3rd and 4th generation of the same product today. So this is a long term play and we feel pretty good about that. I know I tried to address different aspects of the question.

Speaker 2

Did I miss anything there?

Speaker 1

And the 48 voltage, so just under a quarter of our sales in 27 of that managed sales number.

Speaker 4

And then what about plug in As well, because obviously there's definitely more of a concern around pure EV than plug in has sort of continued. There is a decent amount of PHEV right in your high voltage, for powertrain as well.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think most of our if you look at the general sales overall out train, a significant pace, I think it's in the 48 volt substantially in the hybrids. There is a product line that we talked about in PHEVs, but it's predominantly in 48 volts, which could be applied to the PHEV part of it and Pure EV switches in the heat

Speaker 4

drives. Okay. And then the only last bit of detail within battery enclosures since It's new and obviously there is one large platform that you've discussed a win on. How diversified if I look through 25, is that sort of $1,600,000,000 Are we talking a handful of OEMs? Or is it 5 or 5 to 8?

Speaker 2

So I think we are talking about 8 OEMs, Chris. But we're talking the outer years That's included in the projections that we mentioned in the figures. That's 8 OEMs.

Speaker 1

And that's global. And it's global.

Speaker 4

That's great. And if I could just squeeze one last one on pricing recoveries. Obviously, we talked so much about EVs in the last week that we kind of forgot about the older issues that we all used to talk about on Q2. Could you talk about the pace of recoveries? 24 because obviously you get the annualization of any price recoveries you've gotten in the second half.

Speaker 4

Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Chris. We've been disclosing, I would say, the net impacts rather than specific amounts, right? And if you look at the Certain costs in energy have declined. There is a improving trend in commodities in certain cases. And I would say we are on track to obtain the recoveries necessary to meet our outlook.

Speaker 2

Maybe a little bit of color. We talked about the $100,000,000 at the beginning of the year as headwinds. And in our last call, we talked about that being reduced to 50. And as we stand here today, we are at 0. That means the $100,000,000 has been brought down to 0.

Speaker 2

But we continue our discussions, and the focus still remains, right, on all the things, whether it is operational excellence, whether it is Looking at every program and continuing discussions with customers, not specific only to 2023, we have always talked about looking at it holistically from 2022 and even going forward planning into 2024.

Operator

Thank you very much. Proceed with our next question on the line. It is from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. Good morning. Thanks very much for taking my questions. First, as you guys are thinking about your prior target to reach Profitability in megatrend areas in 2025, as you're seeing some of the traditional OEMs revisit the rate of their Ramps around EVs, including some in North America where you've disclosed wins. Do you still think you can reach that profitability target in 2025?

Speaker 5

And if so, are you contemplating having to make some changes in order to still get there?

Speaker 2

Good morning, Mark. Yes. When we talked about the megatrend areas, it's not purely electrification. Part of it is ADAS Also and other products that are included in there, we have to go through the Customer changes in the road map, if any, as we are going through the plan right now. But I would say we have, In some cases had, call it, different business models, which are kind of tied, not Completely tied to volumes, but I can give you an example this year on one program where there was a Change in volume, we had a commercial settlement, right?

Speaker 2

And in some cases, we are looking at models where the Capital inlay is put forward by the customer related to NAV program. So there are multiple ways we are looking at it to Mitigate or minimize risk. Obviously, we cannot take all the risk away. We've been doing this, but I think this A little bit more deliberate and more proactive when we talk about the EU platforms. So I think we'll be able to give more color when we come back in February for the outlook.

Speaker 3

And I think, Mark, when we talk about the megatrends, there is a big improvement in the ADAS business, specifically, As we start launching these programs and that's regardless whether it's on we're distributed across ICE and EVs in that space. So you're expensing significant engineering today. And as those revenues launch, we should have a lot of contribution margin To the bottom line, so it's really not just an EV explanation into 2025.

Speaker 5

Very helpful. Thanks. And in terms of the updated EBIT margin guide, you're taking up your margin guidance on Similar revenue and despite the UAW strike headwind that you're now having to overcome. You gave us a number of metrics around Various puts and takes, but maybe just level set us and summarize a bit what's driving the better EBIT margin despite some of These headwinds and is there any anything unusual that you would say that's more temporal helping the margins in the second half of this year? Or do Do you think this is illustrative of the profit potential and gives you guys some good momentum toward the at least 230 bps of margin expansion by 2025 that you'd previously talked about?

Speaker 5

Thanks.

Speaker 3

I can start and Swamy jump in. When you look at the I think guide to guide, we're really just executing where we expect it to be. Volumes have Come in a little bit stronger. If you look on an annual basis, we've said from since beginning of February that we're going to Improve our margins as we go through the year and that was driven by launches, some changeovers, but also just the timing of recoveries of our commercial settlements. I think we're tracking on that plan.

Speaker 3

The one change, I would say, since February really has been the execution on the operational front that we're Exceeding our targets for whether it's cost recoveries or cost containment and our acceleration of our improvement plans, I That's the big drive and that's what's given us confidence. We're reiterating what we said in September that we have confidence in our 25 numbers.

Speaker 1

We're taking our input costs down. We said it was going to be a headwind of $50,000,000 last time around. We're saying it's basically neutral now. So that's another contributor to the

Speaker 4

Outlook improvement?

Speaker 2

Yes. In summary, I would say, Pat, we there is not any temporal topic that has added to the expansion, but it's Just operational excellence and the right trend of the materials and energy cut.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. We'll proceed with our next question on the line

Speaker 7

Actually, the first one, sorry I missed this in the prepared comments. Could you review the UAW impact on just their absolute revenue And EBIT impact that you've or EBITDA or EBITDA impact that you've had thus far or you expect in 2023 1st?

Speaker 3

Yes. Hi, Tom, it's Pat. So just for just a level set, so our Q3 impact It was $55,000,000 in sales, about 10 basis points on margin. Q4, we're estimating an additional about $255,000,000 to a full year basis, dollars 310,000,000 of sales with an impact of 10 basis points to 15 basis points on our guide.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you. I mean, obviously, the next question is on the So I guess the question has to do with how orders work, the order book works. We saw some commentary yesterday from a couple of suppliers suggesting maybe some caution on the order book. Just Curious in terms of how susceptible or how would how concerning could cancellations be Could this downturn get more severe or EV slowdown get severe?

Speaker 7

Just I mean, do you have a lot of visibility on the orders? It's a situation of like 50% growth going to 30% growth, so you have enough inertia to help Just trying to get a sense of the visibility on the order book around electrification.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Tom. As we look at it, it's we haven't really seen Any cancellations? And as I mentioned to one of the previous questions, if there is a Volume change in terms of the planning, it is a discussion that we have with the customer. And Yes. I wouldn't say we have seen anything significant.

Speaker 2

Maybe one topic that might or one point that might help, If you look at just not electrification, but all content on EV platforms, We are in single digits as a percent of sales, right, in 2023. Going out to 2025, maybe 1 5th of our business roughly is connected to EV platforms. But again, I want to reiterate, We always look at volume planning from our perspective based on customer, based on platform, based on segment of the vehicle, Looking at AgGESS data and other sources, so there is a, call it, the Magna volume that we have to Have a judgment on. That's one aspect of it. The other one, like I said, look, even on ICE, There are several programs which don't hit the volumes that we have predicted, and we have mechanisms to have those discussions with This is besides having capital outlay in tranches, having flexible manufacturing So that we can flex as the volumes change obviously within reason.

Speaker 2

And there are some cases where the volumes are up. So it's a complex Variable equation here, but we've had this with customers and there is a little bit of uncertainty and that's where I said, in some cases, models on EV platforms, the customer has come forward with the capital. And some we already had settlements on Where the volumes change significantly and in some cases, we are looking at the same product Where the platform has both ICE and EV, so depending on which does better, there's a little bit of an edge. So there's a lot of these things that we look at it from our planning perspective to, again, mitigate risk, not completely, but It gives us enough comfort. Okay.

Speaker 7

And another thing that we heard yesterday was that There seems to be this kind of divergence of opinion on this EV decline story geographically with That's a lot of Americans, let's say, thinking that we're in this Armageddon scenario. And then over in Europe, it's kind of an opposite view. Just curious in terms of your OEM exposure on to EV specifically investment. Is that something that's pretty geographically balanced? Or how would you characterize your EV kind of exposure geographically on OEMs.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think generally, if you look at it, Our overall sales, we are about 60% or so in North America and about 35% in Europe and the rest in Other, but predominantly China. And we have said from a regional perspective, the electrification take rates are Higher in China, followed by Europe, followed by North America. But Tom, this is very specific on platforms. We have to not just look overall to which segment.

Speaker 2

Now it's a little bit of a judgment to say when we have relationships with the customer, where are we having reasonable conversations in terms of the business models, which platform, A lot of that comes in rather than a generic view on region by region.

Speaker 7

Got it. Yes. My last one is just On that other topic, the price mix topic, obviously, the OEMs benefited on the way up in the past 3 years. And if we do get a normalization in price mix, one of the fears is that potentially the OEMs could Go to the suppliers and ask for price downs. How has that happened historically in the past?

Speaker 7

Is it that you guys typically benefit on volume recovery regardless if price mix is coming down for your OEM customers? Or Do they have the ability to squeeze you guys as price mix comes down?

Speaker 2

Yes. Those conversations have never been easy. And like you said, even when they were doing well in the last 3 years, I would say their conversations still were not easy. But I can say that we talked about various things in recoveries looking at Underperforming programs, programs coming to an end, input cost inflation, whether it was semiconductors or others. There were tough conversations, and I talked about getting the headwinds to be neutralized this year.

Speaker 2

All I can say is they will continue to be they recognize that we have been living in this tough environment of inflation and Chip shortages and supply constraints over the last 3 years, so we already have been living in that, right? So I think we are not going to change our thinking process to be speaking objectively with data. We have had tough conversations, but I would say they were fair and cordial. Yes.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. We'll get to our next question on the line. It is from Dan Levy with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Wanted to just follow-up on the last question. And specifically, the commercial recoveries in the quarter, just Any color was that at all, was it retroactive, is it piece price, just any color What the recoveries were in the quarter that you saw, magnitude as well.

Speaker 2

And I think we talked about it again, net impact other than growth and I talked about the $100,000,000 right. And There is a complexity of talking productivity versus inflation recoveries And a whole bunch of other things. I would say about 2 thirds of the recoveries in general are more related to flow through purchase orders, indexing and so on that would continue going forward And about roughly 1 third are one time, right? So the ones that are more Mechanism based, whether getting on an index or purchase orders and so on and so forth will flow through into the following years. And The conversation of the one time depends on, for example, energy and where they are versus what the recovery needs to be.

Speaker 2

So it's kind of a mix.

Speaker 3

And Dan, if I can just add, when you compare to our expectations, we didn't have a win on recoveries or commercial And our guidance, really when we're talking about our increase in net inflation to pick up, it's related to last year on the commercial side. And we've been guiding all year that we had roughly a 45 basis point headwind related to commercial issues and that's what's coming through.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank you. And then just the second, if you can maybe give us a sense of what's happening within the segments. And specifically, seating, I know it doesn't get a lot of airtime, but this is the best margin you've posted In a while, so just any voiceover on seating. And then, Complete Vehicles, we know that you've said that there would be A changeover and that would drag it negative margins, I don't think any of it is expected.

Speaker 8

Maybe you could just give us a sense of When you get past this changeover and where are those margins in complete vehicles should normalize to?

Speaker 2

Good morning. I think, again, as we talked a little bit about seeding, I think we've been saying over the last You've followed some calls that we had really unfavorable mix in 2022. And with the Chip supply getting better, we are seeing a more normalized volume on some of the big Focus on executing as we have talked about various initiatives. So that's I'm glad we've been talking about Seating that it was a mix It is really showing now, right? I think you're right on the complete vehicles where we have said That the changeover and the launch cycle is what's impacting and it's still In line with the expectation that we have in that segment.

Speaker 2

And I think as we get past this year into the next year, We'll be able to give more color when we come back in February. But as we stand here today, I think It's tracking to what we expect.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. We'll proceed with our next question on the line from Colin Langan with Wells Fargo. Please go right ahead.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks for taking my questions. If I look at the implied second half margin, it's around 5 point percent, which is clearly above your full year guidance full year outlook. Should we be thinking of that as the right sort of jumping off point as we go into 2024? Or you kind of mentioned that there's sort of a cadence of recoveries.

Speaker 6

So is there sort of a little help from the In the first half, it's helping that second half margin making it sort of maybe not a good base to be thinking about.

Speaker 3

Yes. Hi, Colin. Good morning. I think when you look at the second half, you're correct. But this is what we had Expecting that as we get through the back half of the year, the recovery is going to be more back half loaded.

Speaker 3

As we move into And as Swamy said earlier, we're still comfortable with where we're going in our 2025 projections. And we're in the middle of our BP process, but we do have I guess, some volumes and assumptions and whatnot. But coming in, do we expect to have a reduction in margins at the 24? No. Do we think we can launch from the mid-5s upwards?

Speaker 3

I agree with that thought.

Speaker 6

Okay. Got it. And then, you mentioned before, so how should we think about the cadence as we go into next year? Because It sounds like you still have a third of your recoveries might need to get renegotiated in some form. So does that mean there's going to be this sort of Continued sort of tougher Q1 until you get those recoveries?

Speaker 6

Or is this becoming more of an automatic formula because if certain conditions are met. You could kind of just get them January 1.

Speaker 9

Paul, I

Speaker 1

think it's way too early to comment on Cadence in 2024. We need to get through our planning process and then we'll have a better sense for that.

Speaker 6

I guess I was trying to get at maybe like how it normally works. Does it do you have to start those negotiations at the beginning of next year again? Or is it more of a So, trying to understand the triggers that would help you get those recoveries for that whatever is not locked into Peace Price?

Speaker 2

So, Colin, I think like I said, the one that is in a mechanism basis that kind of flows through, but the other We'll be data based on where our set of assumptions are in terms of energy and commodities and so on, right? So that will be very fact based. So some conversations for 24 are already on the table to the extent that we know the information. And if you remember in the last two calls, I said, when we talk 23, it's not just only 23, some of it is 22 And some of it is forward looking to think about what 2024 would look like. But like Luis said, That will become more definitive once we finish our set of assumptions and have the plan in front of us.

Speaker 6

Got it. All right. Thanks for taking my question.

Operator

Thank you very much. We'll proceed with our next question on the line from Joseph Spak with UBS Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 9

Maybe a little bit of housekeeping just to start, because I'm a little bit confused on the amortization Color you provided, like you adjusted your prior guidance by about 10 basis points would suggest about $40,000,000 But then when I look in the quarter, it looks like you added back $32,000,000 in the quarter. So How do we square that? Because it doesn't seem like that. Was the amortization like abnormally high in this quarter? Like why would it Step down, like and maybe you could just give us a better sense as to what you think what the full year amortization was Last year or this year and what the right run rate is going forward, so we can properly adjust our models.

Speaker 3

Yes. So, good morning, Joe. On the amortization, so we're trying to get an apples and apples comparison. So what we've done when you look at our financial reporting that will come out today, it's very clearly listed on our analyst report in our financials. But just specifically to the numbers, When we guided in August, we said $30,000,000 for half a year for Bioneer.

Speaker 3

So Bioneer is about $60,000,000 of an impact annually. When we did our final scrub of all the other acquisitions that we had out there, on an annual basis, there's an approximately another 50 that is going to flow through. So on an annual basis for the next couple of years, it's going to ebb and flow as stuff rolls off, but you're in that $110,000,000 range.

Speaker 1

Okay. And last year, it would have been about 50. 50. Thank you.

Speaker 9

So it's $50,000,000 and going forward it's $110,000,000

Speaker 3

Correct. And this year would be $80,000,000 $80,000,000 Yes.

Speaker 9

Right. So then the I know you think you said you sort of restated prior years. Maybe this is in the documents and sort of get a chance to look through, but like if we as a thing about Q4 is the what's sort of the right Jumping off point for the new measure of adjusted EBIT, is it like that seem like $11,000,000 or so That we need to add back to

Speaker 8

the Q4?

Speaker 1

Yes, dollars 11,000,000 Relative to what we said last quarter because we basically would have implied 15. So about 11 is what we would have incremental to what we said last quarter. Okay.

Speaker 9

The second question is, If we look at BS margins like implied in the 4th quarter And you look at your full year guidance for segment, there's a step down. I know that segment has been performing better Year to date, in part, I think, with some better performance at that at some of those underperforming facilities. But how much of that step down is strike related because I know there's some big customers there. How much of it is maybe a little bit of a push out from the battery enclosures business? And I guess related to sort of battery enclosures, but I know you've made sort of big CapEx investment.

Speaker 9

Is there any Thinking to sort of maybe slow or re time some of that spend or is this something you just need to invest through?

Speaker 3

Yes. So I think there's 2 parts to the question. So I'll start with the first one. So from Q3 into Q4, You're correct, obviously, the impact of the strike at the UAW is higher in the Q4 relative to the 3rd, so that's a drag on margins. The other issue or not issue is just fact is we continue to launch business.

Speaker 3

We tend to launch business more in the quarter relative to the 3rd strategy margins. But that would have been as expected. This isn't really a change from guidance to guidance and That's reflected in our increased guidance range for BES for the full year. On the second part of the question related to battery trays, Battery trays really aren't dragging the margin in the sense that mostly spend And the battery tray space is related to capital and it gets put onto the balance sheet. As far as timing of spend, We're sequencing our capital as required.

Speaker 3

Just to be clear, we're not in a situation of building something and waiting for business to happen. We have facilities and we're scaling the build related to the customer's production plan. So we're scaling our capital as needed. As Swamy said earlier, those plans change. We're going to adapt as well, so that we can delay our spend to the amount needed or as necessary.

Speaker 3

But we have to push forward in this space, but it's not really a margin impact Yes,

Speaker 1

I would just add in terms of the UAW strike, it is a little more weighted, not only Q4 versus Q3, but a little more weighted to BES versus the other segments. So I think that's dragging down. If you look at our implied Q4, it really didn't change that much. So it isn't really sales isn't impacted really in any one All that meaningfully. It's really just the door for waiting on the UAW strike, I think in VES.

Speaker 9

So is like Something with an 8 handle, a better underlying rate for that business at this point, if we sort of back out some elevated Launch activity in the Q4 and the strike?

Speaker 1

Well, I mean, we're playing At a range of 5% to 6.5% for the Q4, right?

Speaker 6

Right. But I thought you just

Speaker 9

mentioned there's some unusual Stuff on the Q4, right, at least the strike.

Speaker 1

Yes. We're not going to comment on where we're expecting Beyond this, we'll give more color in February.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. We'll get to our next question on the line. It is from James Picariello from BNP Paribas. Please go right ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning, everyone. Just back on the Seating business. So I know you guys don't provide a backlog, but of course you have one. One of your competitors and also back on the EV topic, One of your competitors, they stated that their new business backlog, about 80% of it for next year was tied to EV programs, and they went ahead and cut that backlog contribution for next year by 20% Just based on their perceived visibility or real visibility and what those EV build schedules look like. So just curious what your EV Program mix in the new business draw for the coming years, what that could look like in the Seating business?

Speaker 8

And if any other major product Categories that are, of course, powertrain agnostic come to mind in terms of this EV exposure. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Good morning, James. I think one of the things I mentioned overall, if you look at Magna this year, Right, FLEX. All content or total sales related to EV platform is less than 10%, right? And if you look at the specific question, I think you're talking about in Seating, I think, Louis, the content for us on EV platforms today in seating is not material. So we don't see that impact.

Speaker 2

Obviously, going forward into the outer years, which is Too premature to comment, right, in terms of volumes because given jet type operations and so on, In the outer years as we launch, I think we'll have to recalibrate with the customers if there is a significant change. Again, Going back to my previous comments, we'll work with them to see how we need to recalibrate and what needs to be really put in place if there is a substantial change.

Speaker 8

Okay, understood. And then just one quick one On the LG powertrain JV, as we think about the targeted revenue ramp To $1,500,000,000 or $1,600,000,000 whatever the number is over the coming years. Just in terms of the customer regional mix Of that joint venture, what that looks like?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think we were roughly talking about $1,000,000,000 this year, Lewis, right? And if you look at it, the customer mix is between North America and we are Getting into Europe, right? And it is on programs that have been already there, and obviously, some will be Going forward in launching, and this is what I would call a building block, which is like the e machine and the inverter, Which are like a platform and we think not specific only to a program. There is a certain amount of But there is also a generalized asset, which applies to the machines in general.

Speaker 2

So I think there is a certain amount of flexibility as we talk about the manufacturing and the engineering related to this and it's not tied to one program. So again, going back to this is where we talked about flexibility there. Again, we'll have to look at the numbers as we get From the customers, if there is a substantial change, but as we sit here today and look at what's out there, we haven't seen a big We'll be able to update based on our plans coming back into February again.

Speaker 8

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. And we'll proceed with our next question on the line Jonathan Goldman from Scotiabank, go right ahead.

Speaker 4

Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. So just a quick one on the macro. I believe your previous North American production outlook did not factor in the impact from strikes. So if we strip out the impact that you're projecting, your underlying production outlook would be up from previous expectations. Can Can you just discuss what you're seeing in the macro environment that supports a relatively better outlook?

Speaker 3

Good morning. So you're exactly. So when we guided in August, we guided ex. We didn't assume any UAW or Uniphore issues at 15,200,000 units. Our estimate is that we lost 220,000 units Result of the UAW labor disruptions, which would imply 15.4 percent of the 15.4 percent of the 200 percent increase That primarily came through in the Q3.

Speaker 4

I mean, is that more new progress Product launches or market growth, are there any puts and takes there?

Speaker 3

Can you repeat the question? It just broke up a bit.

Speaker 4

Yes. So the incrementally positive market outlook, could you just discuss any puts and takes that you're seeing?

Speaker 1

Just higher volumes that draws from our customers relative to what we were anticipating.

Speaker 4

Okay. Fair enough. And then another housekeeping one. You raised the margin guidance, but it looks like below the line items are flat. So you maintained the free cash flow guidance for the year.

Speaker 4

Could you just help me bridge the delta there?

Speaker 1

Yes. I think

Speaker 3

the simple answer is that it's just a movement within the range. When you work through the math, we were comfortable holding the range where it was at.

Speaker 4

And there's nothing particularly going on with working cap or anything else?

Speaker 3

No, exactly.

Operator

Question on the line from Michael Glen with Raymond James. Go right ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, thanks for getting me in. Can you just talk a little bit about Power and Vision margins? Like what I'm just trying to understand is the sequential Uptick from Q2 into Q3, even excluding the amortization of intangible dynamic, like you're showing a Pretty notable lift from Q2 into Q3. Was Veoneer accretive to Power and Vision margin in the quarter? I'm just trying to Figure out exactly what's behind the lift.

Speaker 2

Hi, Michael. Good morning. I think If you look at the first half, we had a warranty item and there was a net negative commercial item in the Q2 And there was higher engineering costs. So that's kind of the sum in the first half. If you look at the second half, And obviously, we also had net input costs, which were a headwind in the first half.

Speaker 2

So if you look at the higher sales in the second half And you take out all the one timers, the warranty item, the higher engineering cost out, That added to the bottom line and the equity income was higher.

Speaker 5

Okay. And in Veoneer, any comments on the contribution of Veoneer in the quarter to EBIT, Power and Vision EBIT?

Speaker 2

I would say the comments that we gave in the last call that we are in line with the expectations that we had during closing We're very near and we continue to have good traction to realize the synergies that we talked about.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then what just in terms of North America, I know that this quarter there is a strike and everything like that. But Would you say performance this quarter was consistent like I'm trying to assess at the platform level And you identify your larger platforms each year in the AIF. Would you say there was a pickup in the quarter across some of the Smaller programs that you have in North America or was it generally consistent with prior periods? As in are the larger and more profitable programs at the level you expected in the period?

Speaker 1

To To be completely honest, I don't have that in front of me, so it's really hard that we don't look at it by region. So I'd have to look at it and see how it I don't think there's anything notable, that I can see in the quarter, but I'll have to look at it a little more closely.

Speaker 6

Got it. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Thank you very much. And Mr. Kolagiri, there are no further questions at this time. I'll now turn the call back to you for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, everyone, for listening in today. Happy with our continued progress in 2023. We have a relentless focus on execution of our strategy and meeting our mid- and long term targets, And we have ongoing confidence in our ability to meet our plan. Thank you and have a great day.

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Earnings Conference Call
Magna International Q3 2023
00:00 / 00:00