Ag Growth International Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 8, 2023

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the AGI Third Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity for analysts to ask questions.

Operator

As a courtesy to management and other participants on the call, please limit yourself to 2 questions and rejoin the queue if you have further questions. I would now like to turn the conference over to Paul Householder, President and CEO of AGI. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome to AGI's Q3 2023 results call. I'm joined today by our CFO, Jim Redick. I'll start the call with a review of our results, then turn the call to Jim for additional commentary on the quarter. Following our prepared remarks, the call will be open for questions.

Speaker 1

The 3rd quarter marked another record performance for AGI, With margins sustaining the notable expansion from the 2nd quarter, we're confident that many of the tactical and business management changes implemented over recent quarters have taken hold and are steadily becoming company standard across AGI. With revenues and adjusted EBITDA up 6% 20% year to date And an expanding EBITDA margin profile now over 19% year to date, the trend towards enhanced and optimized performance Across the business is becoming increasingly clear. A noteworthy dynamic for the quarter not captured in the headline sales figures was the favorable role that volume played. With steel prices down approximately 20% on average compared to prior year, Strong underlying volume gains captured through the quarter highlight the pace of growth and robust global demand for AGI products. Before expanding further on our results and providing additional business updates, I'd like to first make a few comments on safety at AGI.

Speaker 1

Given it's a cornerstone of our culture and a priority for our teams around the world. Our old Alberta facility just recently The team at Olds demonstrates that while the company wide focus on safety has increased in recent years, Many of our operations were already holding themselves accountable to high safety standards. This is an encouraging sign and a proud moment for the team at Olds as well as the rest of AGI. Old is one of several AGI facilities that have multiple years of 0 lost time safety incidents, And we will continue to recognize and celebrate these milestone achievements. Now turning to our Q3 results.

Speaker 1

Revenues of $410,000,000 were up 2% year over year with strong underlying volume growth when normalized for higher prior year steel costs, supported by a 5% revenue increase sequentially from Q2. Adjusted EBITDA margins of 20.6% We're up approximately 165 basis points year over year and helped generate 11% growth in adjusted EBITDA for $85,000,000 total. Across our 3 corporate strategic priorities, our high level KPIs are all trending in a favorable direction. On profitable organic growth, year to date revenue increase of 6% and adjusted EBITDA up 20% are quite encouraging, particularly the acceleration of adjusted EBITDA capture relative to the revenue growth. This is a clear indication of the overall Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded in the quarter to 20.6%.

Speaker 1

The year to date results delivered a margin of 19.2%, an increase of 2 30 basis points versus prior year. Importantly, we are clearly trending above our stated target of 18%. This is evidence that the new initiatives to optimize the business and minimize costs are taking hold. We have full confidence that a step change in ATI's margin profile is taking root as these processes and business practices are steadily becoming institutionalized. To reinforce our efforts on operational excellence, we made a key new addition to our executive team in the quarter with the hiring of Kate Glasser, who has assumed the newly created role of Executive Vice President, Global Operations.

Speaker 1

This is a critical hire and an important addition to help further accelerate The centralization of key global business support functions such as manufacturing, supply chain, product management and sales execution among others. They bring significant experience from a wide range of roles with leading companies in other manufacturing subsectors and we'll assume leadership of our global operational excellence capabilities and initiatives. As we progress further on our operational excellence journey, We expect support from margins to be just the first realized benefit. Improved internal processes, tools And overall capabilities will help us enhance the customer experience and create competitive advantages, enabling AGI to continue to gain market share and grow revenue. Our net debt leverage ratio continues to move lower and now sits at 3.2x.

Speaker 1

The continued is inclusive of the settlement of the bin incident in the quarter, which was a large one time cash outflow that impacted this ratio. We are clearly on pace to exceed our 2023 objectives for managing the balance sheet and look forward to reaching our target steady state of 2.5 times in mid-twenty 24. Once we achieve this milestone and the balance sheet is proven to have stabilized, It will enable us to more aggressively pursue some of our exciting organic growth strategies and global priorities. Moving into a review of our segments and businesses. The Farm segment was the anchor contributor to the quarter with stable results in North America complemented by solid growth from our international operations.

Speaker 1

Our Canada Farm business continues to generate reliable contributions to the Global Farm segment. Revenues were flat year over year in the quarter and up 22% year to date. Margins were again strong in the quarter with growing volumes for our portable grain handling products, manufacturing efficiencies And more disciplined pricing strategies all supporting the results. Our portable equipment manufacturing facilities continue to review and implement the most efficient ways to increase production while maintaining quality to consistently meet strong fundamental demand. The strategic Focus of our Canada Farm commercial team to actively promote new products across both our existing and targeted dealerships is another source of incremental demand for the business, supporting both current and future growth.

Speaker 1

Our Canada Farm business maintains a positive outlook with an order book up 129% year over year With significant strength in portable equipment demand, demand for permanent grain handling and storage equipment has softened in recent months As growers acclimate to higher interest rates and navigate a drier 2023 season, our expanding and improving product lines and strengthening customer service capabilities, combined with the consistent trend for rising grain volumes, lead us to anticipate an even brighter outlook for Canada Farm we look towards 2024. The U. S. Farm business continued to perform well in the quarter with revenue stabilizing year over year. Unlike Canada, the U.

Speaker 1

S. Farm business featured a more balanced sales mix between portable and permanent handling equipment solutions. The U. S. Business has seen a steady rise in contributions from dealer conversions as efforts to win business with new customers And penetrate new geographies generates tangible business results.

Speaker 1

Similar to the Canada Farm business, The ongoing focus on manufacturing efficiencies has yielded a sustained uptick in the margin profile of our U. S. Farm business. The order book is down slightly relative to last year with several activities initiated to strengthen ahead of 2024, such as leveraging product transfers and enhancing sales strategies through product, market and customer segmentation. Contributions from international regions drove the growth of the farm segment in the quarter.

Speaker 1

This is yet another important reminder of the benefits of our diversified and resilient overall business model. With exposure to different agriculture regions throughout the world, HEI continues to deliver profitable organic growth and is able to consistently overcome regional pockets of weather, Political or economic disruption. As the international side of our business continues to grow, the benefits of diversification and the stabilizing impact it has on our results The performance in International Farm was led by Brazil, where revenue set an all time record with farm representing the majority of the sales mix from the country. A record soybean crop and near record corn crop drove overall activity and an improving farmer sentiment despite some offset from higher interest rates. While non steel input costs provided some headwinds to margin capture, The farm team in Brazil continues to perform well.

Speaker 1

The 3rd quarter results are particularly impressive given the challenging economic conditions in Brazil, which demonstrates a significant demand for AGI products and capabilities in this region. In Asia Pacific, Our farm business is largely concentrated in Australia, which delivered another steady quarter. The portable grain handling product transfer to India continues to progress across the Having local production capabilities in India provides more competitive supply, support and service to the strategically important Australian market, which will enable long term demand and growth. In EMEA, dealer engagement efforts in Continental Europe have supported pockets of permanent grain handling The Farm segment in EMEA is a smaller piece of our Farm business and is an area where we are looking to find ways to further unlock Opportunities. In aggregate, our Farm segment continues to be a key contributor to AGI's overall results, With an order book up 22% and an expanding margin profile, the outlook is bright for year end and heading into 2024.

Speaker 1

Now turning to our Commercial segment results. Similar to the Farm segment, it was areas within our international business that contributed to the overall positive result and stabilized segment performance. The 3rd quarter featured another strong result for the commercial segment in South America and for Brazil in particular. Results were underscored by the final commissioning activities on 2 very large and complex commercial projects for key customers. These are milestone projects for the local team in Brazil and represent a significant increase in the sophistication of our project execution capabilities.

Speaker 1

Recently executed product transfers and the associated increase in local capabilities are expanding the Brazilian team's market range and project scope well ahead of expectations. As we deepen and extend our project experience, we are well positioned to play a leading role in the development of Our Asia Pacific commercial revenues were flat with some softness in Southeast Asia offset by continued strength in India. Already a leading contributor, the margin profile in India continues to expand as operational excellence initiatives and penetration of higher end markets combined to drive margins This is evidence that the operational excellence initiatives are not just North America centric. Progress is being made at AGI facilities all around the world. On the product transfer front, the success in setting up the storage bin line has attracted interest from local With products tailored to the region are an expected source of accelerated growth.

Speaker 1

This is true not just for India, but in all regions where active product transfers are taking place. Our EMEA region was again able to generate fairly stable results despite pressing conditions. In lieu of the slowdown in customer purchasing activity, the team continues to focus inward on operational excellence initiatives and has been successful in driving significant gains in gross margins. This favorably positions our EMEA region to accelerate EBITDA growth as sales and activity ramps up over time. We have begun to see notable pockets of strength in demand throughout the region as the EMEA order book has grown 17% year over year And we are further encouraged by a large and highly active pipeline.

Speaker 1

One additional comment on our Results in our North America Commercial segment were mixed. The core commercial business in the U. S, The largest sub segment within North America Commercial posted significant increases in revenues and adjusted EBITDA. Meanwhile, the core commercial business in Canada and the food platform continued to navigate challenging conditions with efforts focused on rebuilding the order books. Taken together, the North America Commercial segment revenues decreased by 6%, a gain from expanding gross margins and disciplined SG and A to deliver solid incremental adjusted EBITDA growth of greater than 8% year over year.

Speaker 1

North America Commercial was one of the leading contributors to the overall And finally, a few comments on our AGI Digital business. The challenging and rapid business transformation executed through the first Half of the year continues to pay off with the digital business generating nearly $2,500,000 in positive adjusted EBITDA in the quarter. This follows last quarter where Digital achieved its first ever breakeven performance. The Digital business has solidified a firmly positive outlook for full year adjusted EBITDA. We are now focused on accelerating the growth of our digital business and have several new international opportunities to help further boost performance, an exciting development for an AGI business unit that has primarily been U.

Speaker 1

S. Centric in sales and operations to date. Overall, we are pleased with our Q3 results and the strong 2023 so far. We are on pace to close out another record year With all high level KPIs trending in a positive direction, I'm particularly encouraged to see the significant progress on margin expansion from our operational excellence initiatives. This is quickly becoming a key capability for AGI along with our broad Product portfolio and wide range of geographic positions.

Speaker 1

Our 3rd quarter results were enabled by excellent contributions from our international geographies, Notably Brazil delivering an all time record quarter. Our international regions have now collectively delivered over $500,000,000 in revenue over the last 4 quarters, a key milestone achievement in tangible evidence that our diversified business model continues to drive stable and growing results for AGI. As we look ahead to 2024, we are committed to complementing this enhanced margin profile with accelerated revenue growth initiatives, Leveraging expanded margins, a strong revenue growth and a deleveraged balance sheet, AGI will continue to create value for all our valued

Speaker 2

Thank you, Paul, and good morning, everyone. For today's call, I will touch on 4 areas, including an overview of our Q3 results, An update on our balance sheet and related key metrics, a few comments on our cash flow, and I'll close out the prepared remarks with a recap on our outlook for the year. On a consolidated basis, 3rd quarter revenues of $410,000,000 increased 2% over last year's all time record quarter. The trend in expanding gross margins continued from the 2nd quarter And in addition to disciplined SG and A cost containment helped to drive approximately 165 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion. Overall, adjusted EBITDA landed at $85,000,000 growing 11% in the quarter and clearly demonstrates our ability to capture additional margins from modest sales increases as the benefits of our operational excellence initiatives take hold.

Speaker 2

Our farm segment delivered $227,000,000 in revenue, growing 3% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA of $62,000,000 grew 22% year over year with margins expanding over 400 basis points to 27%. Stable sales in North America were complemented by growth in international regions, notably Brazil. The margin result was a combination of operational excellence initiatives as well as from mix with a weighting towards portable equipment relative to last year. In the commercial segment, Revenues of $183,000,000 were stable with last year's results.

Speaker 2

Adjusted EBITDA of $34,000,000 grew 6% year over year with margins increasing roughly 100 basis points. Similar to farm, the strong results in Brazil helped offset some softness in other areas. Moving on to our balance sheet. We continue to make steady progress on our working capital metrics and key leverage ratios, Clear indicators of the structural improvements we are making to the business and how we manage it. Working capital investment continues to be a Key focus area across the organization, our net investment of $243,000,000 in the 3rd quarter was down from $264,000,000 year over year.

Speaker 2

As a percentage of revenue, working capital investment fell From 16.4 percent to 14.8 percent year over year on an annualized basis. This is roughly 160 basis point improvement and continues a clear trend from the last several quarters that shows a sustained improvement in how we are managing our working capital across AGI. Over the last year, we placed a heightened focus on our inventory levels and in particular, our day sales and inventory or DSI. Our DSI metrics are closely managed KPI across AGI and they continue to make tremendous strides versus recent quarters and year over year. Credit facility management also continues to be a focus area.

Speaker 2

Our net debt leverage ratio decreased to 3.2x in the 3rd quarter. This is a significant improvement from 4.1x year over year and 3.3x sequentially. This is after factoring in the BIN settlement repayment. Without that one time non recurring costs in the quarter, Our net debt leverage ratio would have improved even further. Despite this added cash outflow, we still expect to be at or close to our original goal of approximately 3x by the end of 2023.

Speaker 2

Turning to a few comments on cash flow. Funds from operations of $64,000,000 were up from $56,000,000 year over year. Similar to last quarter, The step up in available cash flow mirrors the increase in adjusted EBITDA and demonstrates our ability to capture and convert our growing adjusted EBITDA into cash flow. And finally, turning to our outlook. We remain excited about the path we are on to close out 2023.

Speaker 2

We are encouraged That the order book continues to grow and is up 3% year over year. This is in light of a few areas 2023 and have reiterated our outlook for the full year with adjusted EBITDA of at least $290,000,000 In addition, We have updated our full year margin guidance with adjusted EBITDA margins now expected to be of at least 18.5%, up 50 basis points from prior guidance of 18%. This represents a significant step up in results When the last several years of consecutive successive record results are taken into consideration, achieving this level of growth and Profitability on a consistent basis is a clear indicator of AGI's growth trajectory and the types of opportunities available in the markets we serve around the world. Thanks everyone for your time and we'll now open up the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the analyst question and answer session. The first question comes from Jacob Bout with CIBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning. Hey, Jacob. How are you doing?

Speaker 3

Good. So a couple of quarters here, we've seen revenue kind of in the low single digit growth rate year on year. Maybe just Comment on what your expectation is for revenue growth through the end of this year into 2024, because if you take a look at backlog, Overall U. S. Is down and South America is down year on year.

Speaker 3

And so Maybe just talk through backlog as a predictor of revenue growth going forward?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks for the question, Jacob. Yes, first, I'll start with the revenue portion, Commenting on your point on the revenue over the past few quarters. You heard in our opening comments, one of the things that we highlighted is the steel impact on our revenues. So just to elaborate on that a bit further, if you look at Q2 and Q3, we've seen steel as a significant input cost that represents somewhere around would add about 3% to 5% roughly to our revenue.

Speaker 1

So you put that in the context of Q2 being up 2%, normalized for steel, we see that more in a 5% to 7% range. So just to build on those opening comments relative to steel. Going to comment on order book, we're up 3% versus prior year. We do have some very important pockets of Strength in our order book, notably Canada Farm, EMEA, India, all three of those regions, Jacob, are up over 10% from an order book standpoint. As you correctly pointed out, we do have some soft areas in our order book.

Speaker 1

U. S. Farm is soft, South America is soft as well. I'll take each one of those individually. When you look at U.

Speaker 1

S. Farm, we do have a positive outlook on that order book Encouraging or improving setting ourselves up for a positive 2024. One of the dynamics that we're watching closely So here over Q4 is the rising steel costs now that we're seeing. Steel costs have increased rather notably over the past 4 to 6 weeks. That's often Catalyst for dealers to move forward with purchases on our permanent side of our business.

Speaker 1

So we're out there very actively With our dealer partners having conversations with them on the permanent side of our business, we think that's also a driver for strengthening U. S. Farm order book heading into 2024 as well. Portable demand remains robust, particularly in Canada, but as well as U. S.

Speaker 1

So Going forward, it's really on the permanent side that we would expect to see an improvement from an order book standpoint. Jumping down to South America, fantastic quarter for Brazil, tremendous work by the team in that area. We're quite confident that our performance in Brazil has led to a significant increase in market share. We continue to gain market share throughout this year. The order book is down.

Speaker 1

A lot of that is timing. We mentioned that we had 2 significant commercial projects that Close in Q3. Those were very important projects for us, key customers, both quite successful projects. We're very proud of the team and the Accomplishments down there. We do expect that commercial portion of our order book in South America to rebuild.

Speaker 1

We've got a number of exciting opportunities in our pipeline that we're working very closely with our customers in securing those orders. And then on the farm side, there's been some improving farmer sentiment, at least from our perspective. That is a good tailwind heading into 2024. Complementing that, some key government initiatives that are supporting investment in infrastructure on the farm level as More credit becomes available, encouraging farmers to make and move forward with those purchases.

Speaker 3

Maybe just a follow-up here. So do you expect backlog then to be positive year on year in the U. S. And South America as we get through Q4?

Speaker 1

Well, we certainly expect the order books to approve sequentially, Jacob, across Q4 and into Q1. And certainly our target would be for both of those to be up over prior year as we head into the year, but certainly improving and strengthening sequentially, Yes.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you. That's my two questions.

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Doumet with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning guys.

Speaker 1

Hey, Michael. Hey.

Speaker 4

So very nice improvement on the margins. Several operational excellence initiatives helped you get here, but it doesn't sound like you're done, Paul. I don't know, Paul, if you'll ever be done there, but How do I square the year to date EBITDA margins at 19.2% despite the low Q1 And more efficiencies to come with the 18.5%, presumably

Speaker 1

well, you said

Speaker 4

for 2023, but presumably beyond. Just wondering if there's an element of conservatism there or if there's potential headwinds we should consider.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks for the question, Michael. And we're equally encouraged by the performance we've had from an operational excellence standpoint and the margin improvement Gains that we've made. It's interesting to note that as we look very deep at where that margin improvement is coming from, it's really even all the way So that's where it's particularly encouraging is that we're seeing notable improvements in margins at the individual Obviously, we had a significant step up in our EBITDA margins from Q1 to Q2, And then largely holding on to that in Q3, which is encouraging. When you look at the business at AGI over across the year, Yes, we do have peaks in the quarter.

Speaker 1

Q2 and Q3 typically being our strongest quarters from a top line standpoint. And with the strength in the top line of Q2 and Q3, that's going to support our highest margin quarters for the year. So, yes, we would expect Q2 and Q3 to be peaks in terms of our EBITDA margin for the year, Q4 coming off those levels, But still up notably over prior year, which supports that 18.5% full year guidance. Going forward, as we've commented, we're really just Getting started from an operational excellence standpoint, a lot of the initiatives that we have underway, we kicked off just the beginning of the year In 2023, these are multi year initiatives. So as you're referencing, Michael, we do expect to have further improvements from our operational excellence capabilities Going forward, obviously, this is an important area for us.

Speaker 1

We continue to invest in key resources, prioritize this as an area of investment because we think it's going to be A key capability for us going forward. So in aggregate, yes, we see benefits from our operational excellence carrying into and through 2024.

Speaker 4

Perfect. Second question, I think we're all going to try to figure this out and ask questions on it. 2023 looks to be

Speaker 1

a great year for our growth.

Speaker 4

And I guess the question is, how repeatable or beatable is it in 2024? You talked about a couple of things, accelerated growth initiatives, margin expansion. Just wondering how that all squares out with your visibility on the macro so far?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Michael. And this is a Challenge that the team is certainly up for. And when I say challenge, it's the challenge of continuing to out perform our prior year. We continue to set an increasingly high

Speaker 5

performance bar.

Speaker 1

If you look at our track record over the past 3 years, we've consistently grown EBITDA greater than 20%. I think over the past 3 years, our EBITDA has now almost doubled. And then we complemented that by an EBITDA margin expansion of approximately 400 basis points over the past 2 years. So the team is doing We're setting the performance bar quite high and we're entering 2024 with a high degree of confidence. Not only do we have the higher margins and all the initiatives in place to support that area, But a number of our growth initiatives provide a tailwind heading into 2023.

Speaker 1

And so just commenting, Michael, a bit on a few of those growth tailwinds, there's really 3 in particular that we'll highlight. One is our growth platforms. And when we talk about growth platforms, there's really 3 in particular, food, digital and feed. Now obviously, food and digital, they've been restructured programs across 2023. We've made Substantial progress in both of those areas, which gives us a lot of confidence that performance in those two businesses are actually going to be a tailwind 2024 and then complementing that by a lot of progress we've made in the feed segment, a very attractive Order pipeline in feed that will also be a tailwind for growth heading into 2024.

Speaker 1

2nd one, geographic expansion, Notably, Africa and Middle East substantial progress across 2023. This is one of the areas that Underpinned that increase in our EMEA order book by 17%, and that is complemented by an extremely strong order pipeline. The food security, particularly across the Middle East, is a very strong driver for demand, and that is where a lot of that Quote log resides. We expect our order book in EMEA to improve substantially over Q4 and set us up very strongly For 2024. And then the last one that we've talked about frequently is the product transfers.

Speaker 1

Across 2023, we've made notable progress in all the upfront efforts around engineering and manufacturing transfer. We're now out marketing and selling These product transfers across key geographies of Brazil, India, as well as North America, not only is our quote log Increasing substantially in support of these product transfers, they're now tangibly in our order book and we expect a Strong order book on product transfers heading into 2024. So that's really our 3rd driver of growth and why we're quite bullish heading into 2024.

Operator

The next question comes from Steven Hansen with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes. Good morning, guys. Thanks for the time. Paul, I understand I'm not trying to diminish any of the progress you're making on the operational technical initiatives. They sound fantastic, but I'm surprised you didn't mention the portable In your commentary around the margin progression, the

Speaker 7

only reason I

Speaker 6

asked is I'm just mindful that if you get a big surge or recovery In some of the permanent business next year that you don't get some contraction in the margin, is it possible to attribute the margin expansion between the mix shift In the portal business versus all the other initiatives you've already discussed?

Speaker 1

Yes, for sure, Stephen. And that's a fantastic Thanks for the question. So, yes, it is important to look at our margin expansion and delineate between mix As well as fundamental improvements in our margin, which I think is the point that you're getting at. So absolutely, we've Very strong performance in our farm segment this year. We've had very strong performance in our portable segment this year.

Speaker 1

So for sure that is supporting our margins from a mix standpoint. What is encouraging when you look at our operational So, it's initiative is that when you drill down to the product lines, you see a similar margin expansion. So, it's not just mix It is fundamental improvements in our cost structure and our efficiencies measured at the product line level. So our portable net margins have expanded. Our permanent margins have expanded.

Speaker 1

Our commercial margins have expanded. So it's fundamentally ingrained at the core of our business. Now absolutely, Steve, to your comment going forward, if and as we see a mix across 2024 with perhaps commercial strengthening and the permanent side of our farm business Strengthening. Fundamentally, that mix shift would support margins going down. We're quite confident that the ongoing efforts And operational excellence and the improvements that we are going to make are going to more than offset mix shift going forward.

Speaker 6

Okay, very helpful. Thank you. And then just one follow-up again on the outlook for The U. S. Business in particular, that's where some of the weakness has been more centric of late.

Speaker 6

How do you feel about that business From a growth standpoint into next year, you've described a few elements of that business already, but whether it's the dealer take up, the farmer sentiment, I mean, how are you balancing all those As it stands and then I guess just maybe a bit more color on the same point is around the steel surge that we've been seeing. It sounds like that's starting to pull Customers in the door a little bit faster ahead of the deal increase. I think that was the tone of your question, your point?

Speaker 1

Yes, yes, Steve. I think you're spot on. Very good read. So U. S.

Speaker 1

Key segment for us certainly across both pharma and commercial. When you look at our pharma business, We have a terrific position from the portable side. We have very strong market share. Demand has continued to be very good, And we expect 2024 to be another very strong year for our portable side of our business in farm. Where you see the softness It's on the permanent, albeit we have had a pretty good year on the permanent side in U.

Speaker 1

S. Farm. But yes, we do see the recent Serge, the recent increase in steel prices being a catalyst for an improvement in the permanent side of our business And the strengthening of that order book heading into 2024. Our fantastic sales team is out now working and collaborating with our value Dealer partners on exactly that topic, working with them, encouraging them to take advantage of the current Favorable pricing that we have in our product line, get ahead of the steel increases and get their orders Place heading into 2024. So yes, that is a tailwind that we see supporting both our U.

Speaker 1

S. Farm business As well as our order books in aggregate going forward.

Operator

The next question comes from Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hey, good morning. So AGI has definitely had

Speaker 4

a great few years. Operations have executed really well. I think your commentary does a really good job of highlighting The tailwind and your confidence in the business, so just not to take away from any of that. I just want to I wanted to wonder like could you flag any potential hurdles or challenges that you do think could come up as you go into 2024? I'm sure you look at those.

Speaker 4

And what are some of the things that might keep you up or are you going to 2024?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. Great question. For sure, there are hurdles And challenges out there, just as there have been over the past 3 years, and we are quite confident that We will continue to face those hurdles and overcome them. As we look into 2024, some of the hurdles, I mean, it's a pretty dynamic Condition from a weather standpoint and an outlook, whether that's down in South America, where we're seeing Some dryness in Brazil in the north.

Speaker 1

We've had a variable monsoon season out in India with Some pockets of dryness in some areas, some pockets of high moisture in others. Obviously, Canada and the U. S. Farm have also been challenged With some difficult weather conditions in 2023, and you throw on top of that high interest rates, which are impacting Quite a number of businesses input costs rising. So, yes, there are a number of hurdles and challenges that we keep a very close eye on.

Speaker 1

What is encouraging is these are very similar challenges that we have faced to overcome and continue to deliver outstanding performance in the past, And it's why we're so confident that we'll be able to continue to do it going forward. And it's really it's our diversified product line, Our strong geographic positions provide an underlying resiliency to our business It is now further complemented by our expanding margin capabilities, giving us another lever in our toolkit To drive margin and profit expansion. Okay, that's great. And then maybe a

Speaker 4

question for Jim here On working capital, mostly seasonally Q4 is when there typically can be capital That unwinds. Is that a reasonable expectation for this year as well? And do you have any guidance on where that ends up for the year?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. And we've done quite a bit

Speaker 2

in working capital this year. The focus this year on rig count has been on inventory management, and we've made some really significant improvements in terms of The number of days of inventory we need on hand, that focus will continue. And as you mentioned, the nature of our business is such that typically Q3 and Q4 ends up being more of the periods where working capital needs diminish quite significantly, and that translates to a lot Cash generation, last year, the back half of the year was about $110,000,000 This year, we expect similar improvements year on year. And a lot of it typically happens in Q4. We had a very strong Q3, as you saw, although a lot of it was used up So it's a resolve the dividend incident, but we expect similar, if not a little bit better, working capital improvements In Q4 versus the prior year.

Speaker 2

So yes, very strong cash generation. And what that means from a leverage perspective is We ended the quarter at 3.2x, so still down sequentially from last quarter despite the BIN settlement. But we expect continued momentum and us to be comfortably Able to hit our 3 times leverage ratio net leverage ratio target for the end of

Speaker 4

the year. That's great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Tim Monachello with ATB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

There's a bunch of positive commentary on the momentum in Slarm through the back half or sorry, jack quarter of the year. Is that meant to suggest that we should see some positive momentum year on year or even sequentially into Q4?

Speaker 1

Thanks for the question, Tim. We are quite Pleased with the performance of our farm businesses, particularly year to date. You heard Canada Farm started out the year just fantastic. That was how the year was setting up in the beginning. We saw that year to date.

Speaker 1

I think we're up over 20%. U. S. Farm also performing quite well. So net net, we do expect full year to be a strong year across our farm segment, led by North America, U.

Speaker 1

S. And Canada, and then further supported by the strength internationally. And we're extremely pleased with the uptick That we've seen in the farm business in Q3, quite confident that that directly translates to a step change increase in market share. And that's going to be a positive tailwind for us, Tim. I think that's why we are bullish on the continued strong performance of our farm segment Through Q4 and heading into 2024.

Speaker 1

Okay. Do you think that there's

Speaker 5

a chance that that international strength could offset some of the seasonality in North America in Q4?

Speaker 1

Yes, that's absolutely, Tim, gets The core of the resiliency of our business is we do have those very strong positions geographically, gives us a level of diversification. And yes, we see opportunities for that diversification to continue to play a significant role and that's being able to deliver Steady and consistent results, whether that's within the farm segment, within the commercial segment or in aggregate across AGI. So absolutely.

Speaker 5

And then I'm just curious, margin performance has been really strong. Obviously, you touched on that

Speaker 4

a lot on this call.

Speaker 5

But we've seen some steel price deflation. We'll see if prices are rising. We would have talked about The percentage margin coming down, the dollar margin staying intact, which would suggest that there's a lot of pass through in that steel price. So how much of a driver of margin expansion over the last few quarters on a percentage basis has steel price deflation been?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks for the question, Tim. So when we look at pricing, there's predominantly 3 buckets And 3 different activities that we have. 1 is moving pricing relative to changes in our input costs. We put substantial efforts, processes and tools around this over the past 3 years.

Speaker 1

We're now quite confident in our capabilities to manage pricing relative to dynamic input costs, both as our costs go up, As our costs as well as costs coming down, so that we keep margins at least constant with Varying input costs. Now, obviously, it's the rate in which your input costs increase or decrease that creates Challenges or opportunities. So if steel costs go up extremely quick like we saw a couple of years ago, that creates a challenge in just keeping pace And you might under recover on the as that curve goes up. And then if steel costs come down very quick, Then you have the opportunity to over recover coming down. But in aggregate, we're focused on making sure that pricing Keeps pace with changes in input costs.

Speaker 1

That's kind of bucket number 1. And then bucket number 2 that we look at very closely is just net net price expansion So recovery even above changes in input costs, whether they're going down or going up. And that's where we We are extremely pleased with our results across 2023 as we've proven an ability to gain margin On core fundamental pricing actions regardless of movements in input costs, we think that's a core capability that we're going to have in 2024. And then just to round it out, bucket 3, we continue to make significant improvements on supplier management, supplier partnership We make sure that we adjust our pricing accordingly, so we capture those margin gains from improved supplier performance Within our net net margins.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then last one is sort of a longer term question. I'm just trying to, I guess, square off All these factors that may be impacting demand for permanent farm and commercial storage applications, Namely steel prices, the fact that you have higher interest rates and the fact that crop prices remain Relatively elevated. So higher interest rates and higher crop prices would probably be negative for long term demand for storage. And then your commentary that the view towards higher steel prices incentivizes sort of shorter term demand, especially in the North American Context, but do low steel prices help with affordability?

Speaker 5

And so like, I guess, any commentary that you have on, I guess, the trend across the platform in terms of that permanent And commercial storage in sort of a higher interest rate in current environment

Speaker 6

It would be great.

Speaker 1

Yes. For sure, Tim, it's a fantastic question. Thanks for the question. You're right to point out that, I'll say it, at the micro level, there's a number of factors that That can impact demand for our permanent side of our business. And you hit on a lot of them, whether it's the variability in Steel cost, the variability in crops as well as the high interest rates.

Speaker 1

So these are all very important micro level drivers to Keep a very close eye on and make sure we're making the right business decisions in the moment to ensure that we are performing well Within those, what I'll call again, micro level drivers. But I think it's a very important question that you asked. And I think, Tim, it gets more to the macro level drivers of investment in storage And the investment in commercial projects, and it's underscored by a global interest around food security As well as the elimination of food waste. These are very powerful and important macro level drivers. Net net, we think As you go around the region, there's an underinvestment in storage capacity, particularly when you get to food security.

Speaker 1

This is highly relevant in Brazil, equally so in the U. S, and we're seeing very strong demand Gold in the Middle East and India, specifically around that food security. That's a very powerful macro level driver. And then it's further supported by just that underlying factor that net net investing in storage capacity eliminates waste. That increasingly is becoming a strong driver, and we see it continuing to be a strong macro level driver going forward.

Speaker 1

So A lot of positive macro level conditions that would suggest short, medium, long term demand for investment in storage capacity as well as

Speaker 5

I guess Maybe I can sneak one more in. Can you talk a little bit about what your backlog would look like on a year over year basis, adjusted or normalized Steel price deflation?

Speaker 1

Yes, it's a great question, Tim. So I commented earlier that when you do all the math, roughly a 20% Decrease in steel would translate to a 3% to 5% improvement or increase in revenue, right? Just normalizing out for those steel costs. We would suggest that's about the same for our order book, particularly when you look at Q2 and Q3, both quarters now Have seen steel at least at a 20% low versus prior year. So specifically, we would say it adds A 2% to 4%, 3% to 5% increase in our order book normalizing for steel.

Speaker 1

So up 3% might be more like Up 6% to 7%, 6% to 8%.

Operator

The next question comes from Gary Ho with Desjardins. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Thanks. My first question is, I want to go back to Brazil a little bit. What are you seeing kind of after the reestablishing Establishment, I guess, at the new government funding program a few months back and then thoughts on putting more growth capital to work in Brazil to exploit the And where do you see the Brazil mix as consolidated total revenue when

Speaker 1

That is a great question, Gary. Thanks for that question. So, yes, I mean, we're pretty encouraged The reestablishment of the government incentives to help continue to fuel investment in agriculture infrastructure. Obviously, agriculture is a very key part of the Brazil economy, represents greater than 30% of the GDP. PE Brazil is now the top one of the top exporters of agriculture products globally.

Speaker 1

So this is an extremely important Part of the global agriculture business and we're very excited about the position that we've grown there, the team, the capabilities that we And how that's going to be a core part of AGI's growth going forward. So, yes, all very positive. In terms of the mix, I think we started this year, Brazil was roughly 10% to 11% of our total revenues in Q3 with the record performance that we've had In Brazil, that spiked up to 15%. Going forward, we do see a lot of tailwinds For growth in Brazil, this is a country that is very underinvested from a storage and infrastructure capacity, That's going to be a key driver. So we do see that mix improving from where we entered at 10% to 11%.

Speaker 1

Going forward, it could be 15% could stabilize at 15%, the peak that we hit in Q3 and as well, I'll grow from there.

Speaker 7

And thoughts on putting growth capital to work there?

Speaker 1

Yes. I think we've commented on this on the past two quarters, Terry. So thanks for bringing it up. As we continue to strengthen our balance sheet and move more and more towards that 2.5x leverage ratio that we expect to achieve in mid year and now positions us to invest in organic growth For the business, the two areas that we see excellent opportunities for are India and Brazil. So absolutely, it's an opportunity for us to make investments to ensure that we've got the capacity and the capabilities down there to keep pace with the growth opportunities.

Speaker 1

So short answer is yes, as India is attractive area and to be honest, as is North America attractive area. So we're quite Excited about our opportunity to invest in organic growth across our key businesses as that balance sheet strengthens.

Speaker 7

Perfect. And then my second question, maybe you can elaborate on the rebuilding of the food segment. What are you seeing there and timing on

Speaker 1

So we knew that 2023 was going to be a soft year for food. We saw that coming in. We've made progress around the restructuring of that business. We're particularly encouraged with some of the progress that we've seen in the past few months. You look at September, Gary, in particular, that was the month of highest order intake all year.

Speaker 1

So a nice Early indicator that we're turning the corner on our foods business. Some of our top customers, the top customers that we have within that segment, They had pulled back on their capital investment at the tail end of 2022, which really set up some of the softness in 2023. They are now coming back. They're now reopening their CapEx book and they're moving forward with projects that to some They had shelter postponed in 2023. And then in addition to that, Gary, we've made notable progress in diversifying our customer base, So for a number of reasons, we feel very good about what we've accomplished in restructuring that business, And we're bullish heading into 2024.

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Tupholme with TD Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Good morning.

Speaker 1

Hey, Michael.

Speaker 4

Good morning. Just one question for me on the product transfer Are you able to comment on where you expect to be in terms of that journey going into next year? And I guess more specifically at your Investor Day, you talked about Expanding your total addressable market by about $4,000,000,000 and capturing a 20% share over time through that strategy. I guess what I'm wondering is, is it possible to comment on how much of that additional market opportunity you'll have available to you in 2024 and how we should think about your share ramping up next year?

Speaker 1

Yes, for sure, Michael. And I'll just hit on a couple of key areas focus for us and progress from a product transfer standpoint and how we see that supporting 2024. So no doubt, the product transfers of Fertilizer down to Brazil, fertilizer over to EMEA, our bin and material handling line in India, Our portable equipment down in India as well as the farm line up into North America, those are five Significant product transfers in which the team has largely accomplished across 2023. We're now seeing Notable order intake in each of those areas that we expect will strengthen our order book heading into Q4. I would expect, Michael, that as we get into the end of Q4 and into 2024, we'll start Providing specific numbers relative to what portion of our order book is supported by product transfers, We remain quite confident that this is going to be a notable growth driver for us going forward.

Speaker 1

The comments that we made in

Operator

The next question comes from Steven Hansen with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes, guys. Thanks. Just one quick follow-up. Look, Paul, I know it's really hard to comment on any outstanding legal matters, but there have been some press reports lately in Vancouver speaking to some outstanding lawsuits with respect to the bin collapse Couple of years back now, in particular, one is a 3rd party. I understand your position that you're not liable for 3rd party damages, but that's Fine.

Speaker 6

I just is there a timeframe where you think these sort of lingering issues will ultimately be dismissed or settled or entirely behind us? Is it possible to comment on any timelines around that or milestones that you expect to provide some clarity? Thanks.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Steve. I appreciate the question. Obviously, this has been a topic and a focus for us over the past several years. We are quite encouraged with the significant Step forward to be made in the overall net resolution of this issue as we reach a settlement agreement with our customer that was impacted in this.

Speaker 1

You're correct. Obviously, we still have some additional legal items hanging out there. In terms of the legal process, it's very difficult to predict how long that will take until we get to full resolution. Where we sit currently, Steve, we see this being an ongoing Lead legal discussion through 2024.

Speaker 6

Okay, very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Tim Monachello with ATB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Just one follow-up. In the prepared remarks, you mentioned pursuing additional organic growth opportunities Once you hit the leverage target, Tim, if you can kind of comment on what those might look like and what the capital intensity of the business might look like

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Tim. It's a good question. It kind of translates back to Some of the commentary with Gary, but yes, we expect our leverage ratio to improve to 2.5 times mid year, sets us up quite nicely To invest in these very exciting organic growth opportunities India, Brazil and even across North America. As we look at these investment opportunities, Tim, They're going to focus on 2 key areas.

Speaker 1

It's going to be an expansion of our manufacturing capacity And an enhancement of our manufacturing capabilities. So the capacity gets to the point ensuring that we've got the capacity in these growth areas to support our expectations for growth over the next 5 to 7 plus years. So when we make these investments, they're going to be notable investments and they'll be investments that set us up Quite favorably for long term growth from a capacity standpoint. And then from a capability standpoint, it's enhancing our manufacturing capabilities in these key geographies specifically tied to our product transfer strategy so that we've got the most optimal manufacturing capability to support the new products that we're introducing as well as the growth that we expect of those products going forward. We're not yet at the point where we've got views on the intensive capital investment.

Speaker 1

We've got a team that is working on the definition of those opportunities, scoping them out and putting that information together so that When we are at a point in time of making those investments, we're fully prepared for it.

Speaker 5

Do you think that your manufacturing capacity in Primary growth regions is sufficient to meet the near term expectations for growth in those markets In the time before you can get those plans up and running?

Speaker 1

Yes. Short answer, Tim, is yes. Jim does a great job of describing how we are currently allocating our CapEx. We've got a good balance between maintenance CapEx. And as well, we have been and will continue to make incremental investments in growth CapEx.

Speaker 1

So, we have added important Manufacturing elements and investments into Brazil, into India, across North America that are specifically geared at making sure that we've got the to support the excellent near term growth opportunity. So short answer, yes, we've got the capacity that we need to support our near term growth.

Operator

This concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Paul Householder for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks everybody for joining our call today. Very pleased with the Q3 results that we were able to deliver I want to provide a specific thanks and appreciation for the outstanding work from the global AGI team. It's ultimately our team and our people that are delivering these fantastic results. So we look forward to Q4 and we look forward to 2024.

Speaker 1

Thanks.

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Ag Growth International Q3 2023
00:00 / 00:00