Blue Bird Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
December 11, 2023

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for attending Bluebird Corporation's fiscal 2023 4th Quarter and Full Year Earnings Call. My name is Sierra, and I'll be your moderator today. All lines will be muted during the prepared remarks from our management team with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end. I would now like to pass the conference over to our host, Mark Benfield, Head of Investor Relations.

Operator

Please proceed.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and welcome to Blue Bird's fiscal 2023 4th quarter and full year earnings conference call. The audio for our call is web live on bluebird.com under the Investor Relations tab. You can access supporting slides on our website by clicking on the presentation box on the IR website. Our comments today include forward looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different. Those risks include, among others, matters we have noted on the following two slides and in our filings with the SEC.

Speaker 1

Bluebird disclaims any obligation to update the information in this call. This afternoon, you'll hear from Bluebird's CEO, Phil Horlock and CFO, Rajvan Rajilescu. They will take some questions. Let's get started.

Speaker 2

Bill? Well, thank you, Mark, and good afternoon, everybody. First, let me say the Blue Bird team has done a fantastic job in delivering continually approved results as we have moved through each quarter in 2023. As you'll see shortly in RASBAM's section, the 4th quarter was no exception to that, where we achieved outstanding financial performance. For the full year, we delivered record financial results across the board, well ahead of the transformational plan that we outlined just a year ago, following a very tough year in fiscal 2022.

Speaker 2

So let's get started with the key takeaways for the full year on Slide 6. As the headline says, we achieved record full year financial results in fiscal 2023 and we beat guidance every quarter, including the 4th quarter. In fact, as Rasband will show you in just a few minutes, the 4th quarter was an all time record profit for any quarter in Blue Bird's history with an exceptional adjusted EBITDA margin of 13%. As we look at the drivers for this terrific progress in fiscal 2023, It really is about making significant improvements across our entire business throughout the year. Market demand for school buses continues to be very strong And the backlog for Bluebird School Buses was at a very healthy 4,600 units at the end of the 4th quarter.

Speaker 2

This bodes well for pricing, Production stability and profit margins. Now while supply chain constraints are easing, there are select constraints We are still limiting industry production and deliveries. But we are very engaged with those constrained suppliers with on-site support at their plants And we are managing the situation very well. On that point, the evidence is clear with our bus deliveries in 2023 Being 25% higher than last year. I'm pleased to tell you that legacy price backlog, which hurt us in fiscal 2022 And in the Q1 this year is now fully behind us.

Speaker 2

As a reminder, we define those legacy price units as those at contractual price levels prior To October 21, every bus in our order backlog now reflects current pricing. And we're priced competitively, which we can tell from our quote win rate and incoming orders. This is an entirely different Bluebird bus revenue structure compared with a year ago. On the EV front, Thanks largely to the first phase of funding of $1,000,000,000 from the EPA's unprecedented $5,000,000,000 Clean School Bus Program. We had nearly 600 EVs in our firm backlog at the end of the fiscal year, and full year deliveries more than doubled from a year ago.

Speaker 2

With $4,000,000,000 still to go, this program is really accelerating the adoption of electric school buses. As we have done for many years, We again increased our sales mix of alternative powered vehicles and strengthened our leadership position even further. The higher margins and higher on the loyalty from these products contributed to our profit improvement in fiscal 2023. We also reinvested back into the business by selectively upgrading facilities and processes, Enhancing the plant working environment and adding electric bus capacity through our new EV production center. Through the efforts of the best workforce in the business, strong leadership, lean process improvements and sheer hard work, We have been achieving some of the best manufacturing performance the company has ever achieved.

Speaker 2

Bottom line, we're performing extremely well in a strong market. We're delivering a greater mix of higher margin alternative powered vehicles. We are priced competitively and appropriately for today's economic environment And financial results are at an all time record level. Now let's take a closer look at the financial and business highlights for the full year on Slide 7. I want to start by saying that our full year financial performance is transformed from a year ago with many record highs achieved.

Speaker 2

We sold over 8,500 buses in fiscal 2023, which is a substantial 25% or almost 1700 buses above last year. Those unit sales drove full year net revenue of $1,130,000,000 That's an all time net sales record for Bluebird and an exceptional 41% higher than a year ago. Full year adjusted EBITDA of $88,000,000 is another all time record for Bluebird. That's $103,000,000 higher than last year and $15,000,000 above the midpoint of guidance that we set at our last earnings call. And finally, adjusted free cash flow for the year was $121,000,000 That's an extraordinary increase of $144,000,000 Over last year and another all time cash flow record for Blue Bird.

Speaker 2

Overall, these are outstanding full year results and transformational gains from last year. Although not shown on this slide, it's worth pointing out that in the second half of fiscal twenty twenty three, we achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $70,000,000 representing a margin of 12%. It's clear we have great momentum going into fiscal 2024. On the right hand side of the slide, you can see some of the operating highlights for the business. As I mentioned earlier, demand continues to be strong With our firm order backlog at fiscal year end worth over $670,000,000 in revenue.

Speaker 2

We raised price considerably over the past 2 years and the average full year selling price per bus in fiscal 2023 was 15% higher than a year ago. Parts sales were just shy of $100,000,000 another Bluebird record and up 27% year over year. The increasing average age of buses on the road is having a material positive impact on our aftermarket business and we gained market share. Turning to alternative powered buses, they represent a record 62% of our full year unit sales, and that's a 4 percentage points increase compared with last year. We continue to be the clear leader in this space.

Speaker 2

No other school bus manufacturer comes close to that number. Now, EV buses were part of that mix growth With bookings more than doubling from last year. Additionally, we left the year with nearly 600 firm EV orders in our backlog, which is around a 12% share of our total backlog. That's worth approximately $180,000,000 in revenue. Clearly, we're benefiting substantially from the $1,000,000,000 funding from the first phase Of the EPA's $5,000,000,000 Clean School Bus program.

Speaker 2

And last on our EV business, we did launch an all new extended range battery in the second half of the year, Providing around a 30% increase in range on a single charge over our standard battery. That's an expected range of about 130 miles, Which is a terrific value offering for our customers by meeting the sweet spot for daily school bus use. From an operation standpoint, A great example of lean manufacturing is improved throughput, looking at the time taken from initially setting up a bus chassis to receiving payment for the complete finished bus. We cut that from 40 days to 20 days in fiscal 2023. Incidentally, we've been running at around 16 days in the Q1 of fiscal 2024.

Speaker 2

That's a great performance by our operations team. And finally, we beat full year guidance, reporting record net sales, Record adjusted EBITDA and a record adjusted free cash flow for fiscal 2023. We finished the year incredibly strong 13% adjusted EBITDA margin in the 4th quarter, and I'm very proud of our accomplishments. I would now like to hand it over to Rasman to walk through our fiscal 2023

Speaker 3

In addition, we will

Speaker 2

be providing our updated fiscal 2024 guidance, which an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10% is substantially higher than what we showed you in our last earnings call. Over to you, Razvan.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Phil, and good afternoon. It's my pleasure to share with you the financial highlights from Bluebird's fiscal 2023 4th quarter and full year record results. The quarter end is based on a close date of September 30, 2023, whereas the prior year was based on a close date of October 1, 2022. We will file the 10 ks today, December 11, after market close. Our 10 ks includes additional material and disclosures regarding our business and financial performance.

Speaker 3

We encourage you to read the 10 ks and the important disclosures that it contains. The appendix attached to today's presentation includes reconciliations of differences Between GAAP and non GAAP measures mentioned on this call as well as other important disclaimers. Slide 9 is a summary of the 4th quarter and full year record results It was another outstanding operating quarter for Bluebird with somewhat limited supply chain challenges And with an increased number of higher margin units driving both our top line and our bottom line results. We significantly beat the adjusted EBITDA quarterly guidance provided in the last earnings call. And in fact, we delivered the best quarter ever for Bluebird with 13% adjusted EBITDA margin.

Speaker 3

The team pushed hard and continued doing a fantastic job and generated 2,116 unit sales volume, It was 100 units or 5% higher than prior year. Record consolidated net revenue of $303,000,000 was $45,000,000 were 17% higher than prior year, driven by a higher number of units, higher part sales, improved mix of electric buses and pricing actions that took hold significantly in this quarter as expected. The adjusted free cash flow was very strong at 35,000,000 and $6,000,000 higher than the prior year Q4. This performance was driven by the increased profitability combined with strong working capital management And support our great liquidity position at the end of this quarter, which was $163,000,000 Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was a record 41,000,000 Driven by our high volume of now profitable buses, increased parcels and margins, partly offset by increased labor costs. Looking quickly at the total year, we are very proud by the team's performance in recording the best year ever for our company in several top line and bottom line aspects.

Speaker 3

And with only 8,514 units sold or approximately 2,500 units less than the prior best year of 2019. And this is despite the transitional nature of our fiscal 2023 Q1 results, which included still a large portion of all backlog low margin buses. Our full year performance was outstanding for both the top line and the bottom line. All time record $1,130,000,000 in revenues, All time record adjusted EBITDA of $88,000,000 and all time record adjusted free cash flow of $121,000,000 Moving on to Slide 10. As mentioned before by Phil, our backlog at the end of Q4 continues to be very strong at approximately 4,600 units And with all of these units at current price level.

Speaker 3

Breaking down the record Q4, dollars 303,000,000 in revenue into our two business segments, The BaaS net revenue was $278,000,000 up by $42,000,000 versus prior year. Our average BaaS revenue per unit increased from 117,000 to 131,000 or 12%, which was largely the result of pricing actions taken over the past 18 months as well as a higher mix of electric buses. EV sales in Q4 were also at a record level of 171 units or 51 more than last year, a 43% increase year over year. Parts revenue for the quarter was 25,000,000 representing a growth of $4,000,000 or 17% compared to the prior year. This extraordinary performance was in part due to increased demand for our parts As the fleet is aging, as well as supply chain driven pricing actions and throughput improvement.

Speaker 3

Gross margin for the quarter was a record 16.5 percent or approximately 18 percentage points higher than last year due to our improved operational performance and our pricing up with the inflationary costs over the last 18 plus months. In fiscal 2023, Q4 adjusted net income was CAD 21,000,000 or $43,000,000 higher than last year. Adjusted EBITDA of $41,000,000 or 13% was up compared with prior year by $57,000,000 20 percentage points. Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.66 was up by $1.32 versus the prior year. Moving on to Slide 11 and for the remaining of this presentation, we will focus on the full year results.

Speaker 3

Breaking down the $1,130,000,000 in revenue into our 2 business segments, the bus net revenue crossed the $1,000,000,000 mark at $1,035,000,000 up by $311,000,000 versus prior year. Our average BaaS revenue per unit increased from 100 and 1,000 to 122,000 or 15%, which was largely the result of pricing actions taken over the past 18 months as well as a higher mix of electric buses. EV sales for the year were at a record level of 546 units, which is $277,000,000 more than last year or more than double. Parts revenue for the year was $98,000,000 representing a growth of $21,000,000 or 27% compared to the prior year. This extraordinary performance was in part due to increased parts demand as the fleet is aging as well as supply chain driven pricing actions throughout the year and throughput improvement.

Speaker 3

Gross margin for the year, including the low margin units from Q1, was approximately 12% or 8 percentage points higher than the last year due to our improved operational performance and our pricing catching up with the inflationary costs. In fiscal 2023, adjusted net income was $35,000,000 or $71,000,000 higher than last year. Adjusted EBITDA of $88,000,000 or 8 percent was up compared with prior year by $103,000,000 10 percentage points. Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.07 was up $2.22 versus the prior year. In summary, our operating performance and financial results demonstrated in this year and particularly in the last two quarters are key evidence that our business transformation has been very successful and it sets a solid base for our future performance Towards our goal of sustained profitable growth with adjusted EBITDA margins of 10% plus in the short term normal year And with some more supply chain normalization, followed by 12% plus in the medium to long term.

Speaker 3

Moving on to Slide 12. We have extremely positive developments year over year also on the balance sheet. We ended the year with almost $80,000,000 in cash Reduced our debt significantly by $40,000,000 over the last four quarters. Our liquidity is very strong at a record 160 $1,000,000 at the end of fiscal 2023 with a zero balance on our revolver. The improvements in operating cash flow and adjusted free cash flow We're primarily driven by improved operations and margin and were supported also by improvements in trade working capital.

Speaker 3

Additionally, we had at the end of the year $19,000,000 in prepaid revenues from Phase 1 of the EPA Clean School Bus Program With more to come in the future. Moving to Slide 13. At the end of November 2023, we refinanced our credit facility at significant better terms With a 5 year maturity date through November 2028, the new structure consists of a $100,000,000 term loan with 5% per year amortization And the new revolver line of credit of $150,000,000 We would like to thank BMO who led the syndication process, The other joint leader rangers, including Bank of America and the other lender participating banks for their support and confidence into our future. The reduced covenants and the extended maturity of our loan provide Blue Bird with both flexibility and stability As our business grows profitably and we continue to lead the school bus industry in the alternative fuel space. Slide 14 shows the magnitude of the business transformation results achieved by our team over the last year.

Speaker 3

We went from arguably the worst year ever to the best year ever with over $100,000,000 adjusted EBITDA year over year, record revenue up 40% and approximately doubling our EV sales and record adjusted free cash flow. EBITDA to the fiscal 2023 results. Starting on the left at negative $15,000,000 the impact of the Bus segment gross profit in total was 86,000,000 Split between volume and pricing effects, net of material cost increases of $66,000,000 and operational improvements of $20,000,000 The operational improvements consist of year over year manufacturing efficiency improvements and lower freighting costs. The favorable development in the Parts segment gross profit was $17,000,000 driven by higher sales and improved margins as mentioned earlier in the call. Moving on, our JV Microburd had an outstanding year and their best year ever as well.

Speaker 3

Coming from a net income loss Last year to a record result, the year over year improvement was $12,000,000 Additionally, we updated our adjusted EBITDA add backs To include now, due to materiality, our portion of the JV interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of approximately $5,000,000 in absolute terms and year over year, as last year it netted to under 100,000. These improvements were fully offset by increases in our other expenses and fixed costs, mainly personal related of negative 17,000,000 As we started to reinvest into our business and our teams during fiscal 2023. The sum total of all of the above mentioned developments drives our record 2023 reported adjusted EBITDA result of $88,000,000 or 8%. On Slide 16, you can see once again the spot market development for After the reduction in the second half of calendar year 'twenty two, they started to increase again all the way through the end of May, And this did offset a portion of our pricing realization for the remainder of calendar year 2023. The next few months showed some easing, But the UEW strike resolution with the major auto manufacturers created upward pricing pressure into the market.

Speaker 3

The future, however, indicates some flattening in the next few months. However, please keep in mind that we have already put in place a comprehensive steel buying strategy, And we are entering into future locked contracts for steel prices with certain tonnages up to 12 months forward, minimizing our exposure and margin risk in the backlog. Before we talk about the updated guidance for fiscal 2024 and our improved long term outlook, On Slide 17, we wanted to share with you some significant investments that we are planning to start in fiscal 2024 To ensure our profitable growth strategy is successful, our engineering expenses spent for fiscal 2024 are double the level of fiscal 2023 As we start the integration work of the next generation of Ford gas and propane engines for the next level of emission regulations. Additionally, we continue to evolve our EV offering and plan new product safety enhancement features. Finally, we will continue to ramp up our investment in bringing to market the commercial EV chassis by the end of calendar 2024.

Speaker 3

We are also planning to triple our capital investments into capacity expansion, production facility upgrades, quality improvements And our supply chain capability and tooling towards our target of 50 buses per day or approximately 12,000 buses per year. On the people side, we experienced inflationary pressures both externally from our supply base and internally, and we continue to provide competitive benefit We are also launching a complexity reduction initiative and we will begin the upgrade of our ERP system as well as modernization of our business intelligence and financial planning and analysis tools. All these costs combined Can add up to approximately 2% of our revenues in fiscal 2024 and beyond. On to Slide 18. This is the last earnings call in which we will present this picture as it was necessary in the past to provide transparency to our pricing journey and consumption of the old backlog.

Speaker 3

However, we are happy to reiterate that we are now past all of the old backlog units with fixed pricing from fiscal 2021 orders. Our production schedule is now full into fiscal 2024 Q2 with some models Type D, for example, going already into fiscal 2025. As shown in the page before, supply chain and labor inflationary cost pressures still exist, and we are reinvesting heavily into our Given our significant backlog, we announced for fiscal 2024 another midyear price increase Of $2,500 per bus net for new orders received after April 1, 2024, to cover expected inflationary costs and other investments. This is in addition to the prior price increase of 2,500 We took for orders starting on October 1, 2023. On Slide 19, we want to share with you our updated fiscal 2024 guidance.

Speaker 3

As a reminder, we are continuing to take a more transparent and conservative approach also this year, as it is still a somewhat uncertain However, we have improved already all the other business levers that we could address, As now demonstrated by our very strong fiscal 2023, Q3 and Q4 actual results. Looking forward at fiscal 2024, we are increasing our revenue to a range of $1,150,000,000 to $1,250,000,000 And we are significantly increasing our adjusted EBITDA margins to $115,000,000 or 10% with a range of $105,000,000 to 120 $5,000,000 Due to supply chain volatility, at this point, we are only providing general quarterly ranges, With every quarter expected to have revenue between $275,000,000 to $325,000,000 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $25,000,000 to $35,000,000 or 9% to 11%. We'll provide further updates in mid February after we close Q1 And gather further insight into our supply chain capabilities to support our strong backlog and easy mix. Moving to Slide 20. In summary, we are forecasting the significant improvement year over year with revenue up 6% to approximately 1,200,000,000 Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $105,000,000 to $125,000,000 and adjusted free cash flow of $50,000,000 to 60,000,000 in line with our typical target of approximately 50% of adjusted EBITDA.

Speaker 3

On Slide 21, we wanted to also update on our improving long term outlook. We are very happy about the results of our business transformation as demonstrated by our fiscal 2023, Q3 and for actual results and our increased fiscal 2024 guidance. The 10% adjusted EBITDA margin is firmly now into our updated new normal year. Once the supply chain further normalizes, we expect to sell 9,500 units, including 1500 unit EVs And generate $135,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA on $1,350,000,000 in revenue. Looking to the medium term, our EV growth and operational improvements can support volumes of 10,500 to 11,000 units, Including EVs in the range of 2,500 to 3,500 units, generating revenues of 1,500,000,000 to 1,750,000,000 With adjusted EBITDA of $165,000,000 to $210,000,000 or 11% to 12%, Our long term target remains to drive profitable growth towards approximately $2,000,000,000 in revenue comprising on up to 12,000 units, Of which up to 5,000 REVs and generate EBITDA in excess of $250,000,000 or 12.5 percent plus.

Speaker 3

We are incredibly excited about Blue Bird's future. And now I'll turn it back over to Phil to further expand on this.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Razvan. Let's move on now to Slide 23. Now we've shown you the chart on the left before, which illustrates the 3 priorities that drive us: Taking care of our employees, delighting our customers and our dealers and delivering profitable growth. The new chart on the right provides more texture around the specific strategies that we are pursuing that both align with our priorities and drive our 4 year growth plans. At the center is our ultimate objective, To drive sustained profitable growth.

Speaker 2

As you look at the accomplishments in fiscal 2023, we've transformed the business from losses to record profitability. For fiscal 2024, we have increased our earnings guidance to reflect a 10% adjusted EBITDA margin. And then over the next couple of years, we plan to grow the margin to 11 12%. Our core strategists focus on delivering these financial goals and are spelled out in this chart. Shown at the top of this chart, leadership in safety, both in the workplace and with our products, is paramount to us.

Speaker 2

Specifically, with our products, we seek to differentiate ourselves, Providing more value to our customers. Our buses are purpose built from the ground up for transporting children safely with many unique features that no one else has in the industry. They're not a derivative of a truck chassis like most of our competitors and our customers understand the value of this. Delivering the best and broadest range of products and features and leading in quality, durability and alternative power are the cornerstone of our product planning and development. Being competitive in cost through lean manufacturing and efficient throughput, Strong supplier relationships and smart product design are essential to compete in a business where competitive bids are mandatory.

Speaker 2

And after the sale, we need to provide great service and ensure the highest possible vehicle uptime throughout the 15 years or more that our buses need to run. This means partnering with our exclusive dealer network that covers every corner of the United States and Canada. And with an average tenure of 31 years, our dedicated Bluebird Dealers know how to service our customers. Frankly, you can't make it in the school bus business without a fully capable dealer network That can reach more than 10,000 school districts that operate their own bus fleets and 3,400 independent owner operators of school buses. Following these core strategies have been key to our transformation and will continue to drive our forward year plans.

Speaker 2

The next two slides highlight a couple of key initiatives It will help us accelerate adoption of EV and propane vehicles in fiscal 2024 and beyond. Let's turn to Slide 24 I'll look at the latest impact of the federal government's Clean School Bus Funding Program. As a reminder, we're in the 2nd year of this 5 year program, Which provides $5,000,000,000 of funding for electric and propane powered school buses.

Speaker 4

There was

Speaker 2

still over $4,000,000,000 available after the first round of funding. Round 2 provides $400,000,000 in grants and applications for this round close at the end of August this year. It's expected around 1,000 buses And associated charging infrastructure will be funded by this grant program, and we expect the grant awards to be made in the Q1 of 'twenty four calendar year. With the help of our in house grant writing team, Blue Bird supported enough well qualified applications to support about 1,000 buses. So we should be well positioned to capitalize on this opportunity.

Speaker 2

In addition, a third round of funding was announced late this year, Providing a further $500,000,000 in rebates for electric and propane bus purchases. The application process is well underway And awards are expected to be made in the Q2 of 'twenty four calendar year. In total, both of these funding initiatives should support up to 2,500 electric and school buses and associated infrastructure, which is great for the industry and in particular, great for Blue Bird. Continuing on the theme of accelerated adoption of Bluebird Electric School Buses, Slide 25 shows our latest initiative that we announced late last week. We have formed an exclusive joint venture with Generate Capital, who is a leading sustainable investment operating company focused on infrastructure transition.

Speaker 2

Our new venture called Clean Bus Solutions will provide electric school buses and charging infrastructure as a service to Bluebird customers For an affordable monthly fee over the lifetime of the service. This turnkey service eliminates a typical high upfront cost for School District in paying for an electric bus when grants are limited and handles the entire charging infrastructure process, including installation. This recurring revenue business should accelerate adoption of Bluebird electric buses by school district and will be a great new sales tool for our dealers. We will keep you posted on progress throughout the coming year as Clean Bus Solutions begins to transact business. So let me now wrap up the prepared remarks our outlook for the business on Slide 26.

Speaker 2

There's not much more I can say on our fiscal 'twenty three results other than we achieved record results across every metric On which we provide guidance, and it was a transformational improvement from fiscal 2022. RASM took us through the raised guidance for fiscal 2024, And I'm showing you some of those key metrics at the midpoint of guidance on this slide. We are being prudent in our bookings outlook, volume by 3% over fiscal 2023 at this time as we still deal with select supply chain issues. But we did manage them very well in fiscal 2023 And if we can build more in fiscal 2024, we will, just as we did last year. Net revenue of $1,200,000,000 will be a new record for Bluebird, Up 6% from fiscal 2023.

Speaker 2

Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $115,000,000 is more than 30% higher than the record $88,000,000 delivered in fiscal 2023. Importantly, we are planning on a 10% EBITDA margin in fiscal 2024, up 2 percentage points from fiscal 2023, is a couple of years ahead of the plan that we have been sharing with you. We have confidence in achieving this margin after recording a 12% adjusted EBITDA margin In the second half of fiscal twenty twenty three, as Rajvind pointed out, we are doubling our engineering work in fiscal twenty twenty four in support of new product programs, Which is contained within our 10% margin outlook for fiscal 2024. And finally, we're looking to grow EBIT unit sales to 900 buses in fiscal 2024. That's a 65% increase over our 2023 sales.

Speaker 2

And as you can see on the right chart, there's a lot of pent up demand following the low sales in 2020, 2021 and 2022, and the bus fleet has aged by a couple of years during that period. ACT is forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 10% through to fiscal 'twenty seven, and that's great news for our business And great news for our profit outlook. With residual supply chain challenges still impacting the auto industry, the ability to build all these units near term is not a given. But I can tell you one thing, the demand for these buses is clearly there. After executing a substantial transformation across our business, The company is performing exceptionally well, as you can see by our financial results.

Speaker 2

We'll continue to improve operating performance and look forward to sustained profitable growth And a robust market ahead. The future is incredibly bright for Blue Bird, and we're confident in achieving what had been our long term goal of 12% EBITDA margin within the next Couple of years. I want to thank our nearly 2,000 employees for all the hard work and dedication in delivering our record results In fiscal 'twenty three and for transforming our company as well as our outstanding dealer body who are critical to our success. That concludes our formal presentation today. And I'd like to hand it back to our moderator for the Q and A session.

Operator

Thank Our first question today comes from Eric Stine with Craig Hallum. Please proceed.

Speaker 5

Hey, okay. Good. You can hear me.

Speaker 4

Yes. We can hear you. Yes.

Speaker 5

So good, very good. Well, obviously, Great. End of the year, dollars 40,000,000 in EBITDA and appreciate the fiscal 2024 and the kind of high level Quarterly view, but maybe just talk about seasonality a little bit. Obviously, historically, a very seasonal Business, now you've got this big backlog you're working through, plus you've got strong industry demand. So maybe in the context of that high level guidance That you have given per quarter, how should we think about seasonality throughout the year?

Speaker 2

That's a great question, Eric. It's Phil here. Obviously, you're used to us. You've seen our report numbers over many years and seasonality was always one issue we dealt with. I think right now with our backlog and with the pent up demand we have and the industry in general with dealing with the same issues, seasonality is really not something that It's concerning us right now.

Speaker 2

Now the Q1 will always be lower. We obviously have shutdowns, holiday vacation plans Around Thanksgiving, around the holiday season at Christmas time. So these obviously impacted with less days obviously, especially in December. But I think overall, when you look at us now, that predictability of looking by quarter, we're not going to have anything like the seasonality we used to have. It's pretty It's fairly consistent throughout the year.

Speaker 2

Just first quarter should be a little lower in a volume standpoint.

Speaker 5

Okay, that's helpful. And then the you talked about Clean Bus Solutions, And then you expect that to accelerate and I would assume you're talking about affordable, but getting as close to what the cost of a diesel bus would be On a monthly basis for a school district, I mean, how do you I think in the slides you said you expect it to be 10% of Sales here in the relative near term, I mean, how do you see that playing out? Do you think that School districts are looking at the Clean School Bus rebate program, waiting to see if they get funding. If they don't, Then they potentially go this route and possibly do it quickly, as a way to really get buses on the road in a pretty rapid fashion?

Speaker 2

Yes, I think that's the way we're looking at it. Obviously, the grants for the EPA program may have been terrific. I mean, they've helped people really Accelerate adoption and districts who otherwise would not have been able to afford a product to have other chance to get a terrific grant. But there's no question when you don't have grants or you have limited grants We said before, the price of an EV bus is still worth 3 times the price of 1 with a combustion or spark engine ignition. It's a bit of a sticker shock as we say in the auto industry.

Speaker 2

And so having this capability now that instead of a big upfront capital expense, You can pay what's called an affordable monthly fee over 12 years or 15 years or so of the lifetime of the product makes it much more affordable And faster to adopt. That's the beauty of it. For that $350,000 let's say plus price for electric school bus, When you're paying a standard monthly fee over 50 years, you can afford a few lot more of those buses right upfront and get to run them, get used to them. Now I do think at the end Of the EPA grants and 5 year program that's being put out there, it's going to be that we expect obviously, battery Costs have come down significant reductions in the price of the platform, so to speak, the electric platform. And I think that's where you really will see the benefits of a program like this Coming through because it will be much more attractive than a traditional upfront capital cost for a school bus.

Speaker 5

Got it. And very helpful. And then last one for me. Just, I mean, obviously, the margins, The price per bus, I mean all of that moving in the right direction and pretty quickly. I mean, but would you agree with the statement that really that is more Due to the price increases you've put through and that that's finally worked through backlog rather than the mix of electric buses.

Speaker 5

If I do my math, it looks like maybe electric made up 6% to 7% of the mix in fiscal 2023.

Speaker 3

Hi, Eric. This is Rajvan here. Thank you for the question. Absolutely, the biggest impact comes from the numerous price increases we put in place Over the last almost 24 months now to keep up with the material cost inflation and reposition our margins for the future. So Yes, EV is a smaller portion of that, but all the other buses and especially alternative power ones are what drives our extraordinary bus margins today.

Speaker 5

All right. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Eric.

Operator

Our next question today comes from Mike Zlotsky with D. A. Davidson. Please proceed.

Speaker 4

Yes. Hi, good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to talk first about the hi there. I wanted to just Touched first on the EV subsidies and EV programs for fiscal 2024. Do you anticipate that Blue Bird will continue to kind of get It's fair share, if not greater, of what it was awarded this year's and this year's subsidies and in the broader EV Glass market in general?

Speaker 2

Yes, I would expect as mine to do very We've got a good share to the first phase and I think we prepared very well for this. We have grant writers on our team Who work with our school districts, they work with our customers, they work with dealers, obviously put together what I call really valid applications. I mean, When you're looking at a grant program, you're often asked into look at the quality of that customer, I think in the attainment area, I think An area that needs electric buses because of the pollution that might be in that area. And we've researched that very well, gone through it. So We feel confident of where we stand in terms of the applications we put forward and validity of those applications.

Speaker 4

And just to follow-up there, have you found any, a large number or even a small number of the previous awards Get postponed because the customer didn't have a charging infrastructure or other parts that were required to get the bus?

Speaker 2

That's a good question. I've heard that some others about some folks out there have had cancellations on a request. I can tell you this, we've had 2 vehicle cancellations, 2 in total, not 20, not 2 customers with lots of applicants, 2 vehicles because of a customer who was just concerned about Could he get the infrastructure in place the time he wanted it? And that's it. That's for us is that we've been very successful in terms of Putting our grant request in highly validated, highly qualified.

Speaker 4

So we feel good about that. Got it. One topic that wasn't really mentioned was the organized labor in your facility. I was wondering if you could update us on how discussions might be going With your employees and what if there is a date or a possible milestone you've got for us To share today on that. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Okay. Well, I think it's pretty much the same as I said last quarter. Actually, we're collaborating well with the United Steelworkers. We're Having very frequent negotiations, we're not actually talking about the, what I call the economic terms, it's been more around things like Holidays and what do we do about grievance issues that might be out there, more of a typical, what we call, non economic factors. So as I said, going very well.

Speaker 2

A lot of good discussion, very professionally run. And I would say that I think the earliest we're going to be talking we've seen a completion of this, I don't even put a date on it, but I think we're talking well into 'twenty four before something might be finalized. Like I said, I meet you very regularly. We're very thorough. This is a ground up program.

Speaker 2

I mean, you start literature from a blank sheet of paper and work through everything with United Steelworkers. And So I think sometime maybe towards middle of next year could be, but again, I'm not putting any timeframe on that. We'll just do it thorough. We'll just handle it thoroughly.

Speaker 4

Okay. Phil, thanks so much. I appreciate the commentary. I'll pass it along.

Speaker 2

You bet. Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Our next question comes from Craig Irwin with Roth MKM. Please proceed.

Speaker 6

Good evening and thanks for taking my questions. Hi,

Speaker 2

Cory. Hi, Cory.

Speaker 6

Hi, Phil. Hi. You guys have really demonstrated leadership And alternative fuels over the last many years, and part of that is understanding the market. And Today, again, on this call, you've been really clear that the long term adoption of EV School Buses, the accelerating adoption is dependent On the ability to reduce the cost of operating these buses, the cost of acquiring these buses for the school districts that are considering going electric. Can you maybe share with us your level of activity, your level of engineering focus On reducing the cost of EV School buses for your customers, maybe if you could share opportunities you see as particularly ripe or Having good near term returns.

Speaker 6

And what's your vision for potential cost improvement over the next few years?

Speaker 2

Okay. Great question, Craig. So obviously, you look at where we are, we buy a system Cummins, right. And they're a great partner of ours. We buy our drivetrain system from them, includes the batteries, includes the controls All software systems, the motor, the inverters, all the pieces.

Speaker 2

And we have a regular cadence with Cummins in terms of the products that we meet on going through Opportunities to reduce design, lower the cost, think smarter, about the product itself. And I'm not going to put any numbers on the table now. Needless to say, we have a great We'll come to look at the resourcing, sourcing alternatives, lower cost systems, whether that includes batteries, the control motor So does it do we look at the axles down the road? I mean, these are all things we consider in collaboration with Cummins. I think we're still at the early stages, I would say, in terms of EV capability.

Speaker 2

And we've been in since 2018 with Cummins as our partner. But I think down the road, you'll sort of look at us, we'll be looking more and more battery suppliers, battery alternatives, cell providers, because frankly, What's happened in the last with one of our major battery supplies on ours, but a battery supplier out there who To declare bankruptcy and was acquired by another company. Here's an example, I think, of some of the flux that's going on there. So We're constantly looking at alternatives for stronger partners, better cost partners, lower cost partners, more efficient partners, and we'll keep doing that. I think some things over time, you'll see us probably bring a little bit more of this in house too, as we get more scale on our business.

Speaker 2

But We're at the forefront of it. We're very collaborative with Cummins, we're a great partner to work with. And I think you see it see the outcome in our results. I do think that over the next few years, you're definitely seeing not only the battery costs coming down, but other components as more scale and electrification Of school buses and trucks in general. And we want to capitalize on that and be ready for it.

Speaker 2

Hence, this generate capital venture we've done Clean Bus Solutions Is again trying to make it more affordable on a regular predictable monthly basis taking away what we call anxiety, anxiety you're away from the customer and we'll handle it for them and take care of it and make it much easier for them to adopt electric buses. And that's what we learned a lot from propane. We're a little lengthy here the process, Craig. I know you know our business very well. You've been with us a long time.

Speaker 2

One thing we did with propane was when we presented that market, 1st quick, where do I get propane from? What kind of tank do I need? What trading do I need? You have to explain that and educate and train the drivers, the customers About to handle these vehicles and I think we do a good job in that regard.

Speaker 6

Excellent. Excellent. And then I guess Others have tried this question, so I maybe will be just a little more direct, right? You have the most experienced mid team out there, facing the EPA, Right. And you've demonstrated clear leadership in EV School Buses.

Speaker 6

Do you expect to have a greater share of the $400,000,000 in funding Coming to customers that you support than what you saw on the $1,000,000,000 that was handed out last year.

Speaker 2

It's an interesting question. I can tell you this, I'm not quite sure what's going to happen in the end, right? At the end, we don't select the actual folks who are going to get those grants. I mean, the EPS, I will tell you, I think we prepared extremely well for it. Just to reiterate, we've sent in enough applications to take the entire fund.

Speaker 2

So we think we did, we and we really well qualified our applicants. We didn't go in here with just, hey, let me just give you Free opportunity to have a bus that's relatively low cost or no cost. We actually went thoroughly through every school district, Everyone of our customers, some of them were conquest customers, new customers who wanted to move to Blue Bird. So I guess what I'm saying is, Craig, that The proof of the pudding will be in the ether, right, when it shows up. But I feel confident we prepared as best we possibly could To get every opportunity to capitalize on these grants.

Speaker 6

Okay. And then an adjacent question to that. Congratulations on your collaboration with Generate Capital. Jiggersha is also a visionary on cleantech finance And it's executed impeccably in its many different business ventures. Do your competitors, the companies that have aspirations of leadership in the EV school bus market have access to The funding out of Generate or would they need to go and find similar partners to set those up and offer that kind of financial support Just some of these low income disadvantaged communities that the President is really focused on giving the opportunity to.

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, our venture with Generate and by the way, I agree with you fully. Jigashaw is a fantastic guy. I've met him several times over the years on different events, Even prior to this joint venture here. But I will tell you that I think we are really well prepared on this.

Speaker 2

As I look at it, One second. Yes, I should say I just lost the tone of the question. I explained all my knowledge of Jigga Shah there just as you were doing. But I think the unique thing for us, we have the exclusive relationship with Generate Capital. They want to work with us.

Speaker 2

They see our leadership in this space. They have fantastic access to things that we don't Really access today in terms of tax credits, getting to every sort of corner of the utility, understanding better than we do around the Price of electricity and what it really means to our customers. So the answer to your question is quick. We are the only ones who can do this deal with generate capital. And so we're very proud to have that unique relationship.

Speaker 2

The goal for us now is to train our entire dealer network of what this is all about, what it means, the advantage it gives and give a chance For all of our customers to get a 0 emission school bus as fast as possible.

Speaker 6

Great. Well, congratulations on fantastic It's got to feel good to come back to Bluebird to drive this level of success.

Speaker 2

It feels great. Thanks a lot, Craig. I appreciate it. It's all team effort though. Thanks, Paul.

Speaker 6

Absolutely.

Operator

Thank you for your questions. There are currently no questions waiting at this time. So I'll pass the conference back over to Phil Horlock for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

And thanks to all of you joining us on the call today. We appreciate your interest in Bluebird and we look forward to updating you again on our progress next quarter As we always do. As you saw today, we've completed a significant transformation, well ahead of schedule, and it clearly showed in our record fiscal 'twenty three 4th Quarter and full year results. We have a really strong momentum going into fiscal 2024 and consequently we raised our fiscal 2024 guidance significantly, Projecting a 10% adjusted EBITDA margin, which is 2 percentage points above what we achieved in fiscal 2023. And we're confident in achieving an 11% to 12% margin within a couple of years as industry supply chain constraints continue to ease.

Speaker 2

So should you have any follow-up questions, please don't hesitate to contact our Head of Investor Relations, Mark Benfield. And thanks again from all of us at Blue Bird. Have a great evening. Good night.

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Key Takeaways

  • Blue Bird achieved record fiscal 2023 results with net sales of $1.13 billion (up 41% year-over-year), adjusted EBITDA of $88 million (all-time high) and a fourth-quarter margin of 13%, while generating a record free cash flow of $121 million.
  • The company sold 8,514 buses in 2023 (up 25% year-over-year), ended the year with a firm back-log of 4,600 units (worth over $670 million) and achieved a 15% increase in average selling price per bus.
  • Alternative-powered vehicles accounted for 62% of unit sales, led by electric bus deliveries that more than doubled to 546 units and a firm EV order backlog of nearly 600 buses (approximately $180 million), fueled by the EPA’s $1 billion Clean School Bus grant program.
  • Blue Bird formed an exclusive joint venture, Clean Bus Solutions, with Generate Capital to offer electric buses and charging infrastructure as a service for an affordable monthly fee, removing large upfront capital requirements for school districts.
  • For fiscal 2024, the company raised guidance to $1.15–1.25 billion in revenue and $105–125 million in adjusted EBITDA (around a 10% margin), and reiterated medium-term targets of 11–12% EBITDA margins on $1.35–1.75 billion in revenue.
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Earnings Conference Call
Blue Bird Q4 2023
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