Otter Tail Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

  • Otter Tail Corporation delivered record 2022 results with diluted EPS of $6.78, up 60% year-over-year, as all segments produced double-digit earnings growth led by the Plastics division’s 99% increase.
  • For 2023, EPS guidance is set at $3.76–$4.06, with the Electric segment benefiting from rate base growth and normal weather, Manufacturing earnings down ~10% on lower steel and scrap prices, and Plastics earnings expected to be flat as pricing offsets inflationary costs.
  • The utility business will invest $1.1 billion over the next five years (6.4% rate base CAGR), target a 50% reduction in carbon emissions by 2025 and carbon-free electricity by 2040, and advance projects including the 49 MW Hoot Lake Solar, Ashtabula 3 Wind and two MISO transmission co-ownerships.
  • The Plastics segment capitalized on high PVC pipe pricing in 2022 but expects margin compression in 2023 due to distributor inventory draw-down and a softer housing market, while progressing a $50 million rail and plant expansion to boost capacity by ~8%.
  • Otter Tail’s balance sheet remains strong with 59.4% consolidated equity at year-end 2022, ample liquidity, no new debt issuances until 2024 and no equity needs over the next five years, supporting continued rate-base and manufacturing investments.
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Earnings Conference Call
Otter Tail Q4 2022
00:00 / 00:00

There are 6 speakers on the call.

Operator

Morning, and welcome to Otter Tail Corporation's 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded, and we will hold a question and answer session after the prepared remarks. I will now turn the call over to the company for their opening comments.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our 2022 earnings conference call. My name is Tyler Nelson. Last night, we announced our and answer session. Our complete earnings release and slides accompanying this call are available on our website atottertail.com. A recording of the call will be made available on our website later today.

Speaker 1

With me on the call today are Chuck MacFarlane, Otter Tail Corporation's President and CEO and Kevin Moll, Otter Tail Corporation's Senior Vice President and and

Speaker 2

answer session. Before we begin,

Speaker 1

I want to remind you that we will be making forward looking statements during the course of this call. As noted on Slide 2, these statements represent our current views and expectations of future events. They are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ from those presented here. So, and answer session. Our results differ from those presented here.

Speaker 1

So please be advised about placing undue reliance on any of these statements. After the call. Our forward looking statements are described in more detail in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which we encourage you to review. Otter Tail Corporation disclaims any duty to update or revise our forward looking statements due to new information, future events, developments or otherwise. For opening remarks.

Speaker 1

I will now turn the call over to Otter Tail Corporation's President and CEO, Mr. Chuck MacFarlane.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Tyler. Good morning and welcome to our 2022 year end earnings call. Please refer to Slide 4 as I begin my comments on our annual results. Otter Tail Corporation achieved record financial results in 2022. We generated diluted earnings per share of $6.78 at 60% increase from 2021.

Speaker 2

All segments produced double digit earnings growth led by our plastics segment, which capitalized on extraordinary industry conditions to achieve another record level of earnings. Looking forward, we expect Plastics segment earnings to recede in 2023 from our record level this past year, but remain elevated relative to our expected normalized earnings beginning in 2024. In a moment, Kevin will provide a more detailed discussion of our financial performance. Slide 5 illustrates our 5 year compounded annual growth at a rate earnings per share with and without the impact of our plastics segment. Through dependable earnings and steady growth at Otter Tail Power, BTD, at PO Plastics and changes in corporate costs, we have produced a historic 10.8% earnings per share CAGR, excluding our plastics segment businesses.

Speaker 2

The additional earnings and cash flow generated by our plastics segment in 2021 2022 provide additional strength to our already strong credit metrics, liquidity and capital structure and allow for capital investments in our operating companies. Turning to Slide 7, we illustrate Otter Tail Power's efforts in working toward a cleaner energy future. We are targeting to reduce carbon emissions from our owned generation resources Approximately 50% from 2,005 levels by 2025 97% by 2,050, assuming at 5. Last week, Governor Wall signed the Clean Energy Bill into law in Minnesota. The bill requires Minnesota utilities to provide carbon free electricity to Minnesota retail customers by 2,040.

Speaker 2

It also requires utilities to privatize 80% carbon free energy by 2,030 90% by 2,035. The legislation allows utilities to use renewable energy credits to offset carbon emissions to achieve these requirements. We expect to meet these requirements with our existing renewable fleet and available renewable energy credits. The bill also updates the state's existing renewable energy standard, now requiring utilities to provide Energy from renewable resources equal to at least 55% of the total energy by 2,035. Based on our current projected energy resource mix, we anticipate we will meet the renewable requirement in 20 at 2035.

Speaker 2

This will require some additional renewable additions between 2024 and 2,035. Slide 11 includes an overview of Otter Tail Power's 49 Megawatt Hoot Lake Solar Project. At the end of the year. Project construction began in May of 2022 and is expected to be completed in mid-twenty 23. At the end of the call.

Speaker 2

All the costs and benefits of the project are assigned to Minnesota customers. Recovery of the $60,000,000 investment has been approved through the renewable rider. Passage of the Inflation Reduction Act has increased the investment tax credit on this project from 26% to 40%. Turning to Slide 12, Artel Power completed the purchase at the Ashtabula 3 wind farm on January 3, 2023. Since 2013, we have had a purchase power agreement in place to purchase the off at this facility.

Speaker 2

Acquiring the facility provides a lower cost alternative than maintaining the purchase power agreement. All regulatory approvals have been received to provide recovery of this rate base investment. Slide 13 provides additional information on Tranche 1 of MISO's long range transmission plan. Otter Tail will be a co owner in 2 Tranche 1 projects, the Jamestown to Ellendale and Big Stone South to Alexandria 345 kV transmission projects. Otter Tail's total and capital investment in these projects is estimated to be approximately $390,000,000 40% of the capital investment is expected to occur in the next 5 years.

Speaker 2

Slide 14 provides an update on Otter Tail Power's integrated resource plan. In November, The Minnesota PUC supported our request to amend the resource plan procedural schedule. The amended schedule allows us to incorporate the effects So changes of to MISO seasonal capacity construct, increased MISO reserve margin requirements, at recent load additions and the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. These items could have an impact on the at 2021 initial preferred 5 year plan, which requested authority to add dual fuel capability to Astoria station at 150 megawatts of solar at a yet to be determined site and to commence the process of withdrawing from our 35% ownership interest in at the coal fired Coyote Generating Station. We plan to file an updated resource plan in March of this year.

Speaker 2

The amended schedule does not modify the timeline for reviewing our proposal to add dual fuel capability at Astoria Station. Slide 15 provides an overview of Otter Tail Power's capital spending plan. The plan includes $1,100,000,000 of capital investment over the next 5 year period producing a 6.4% annual compounded growth rate in rate base over this timeframe. Approximately 80% of this capital plan will be recovered through existing rates or riders. This rate based growth plan is a key driver in our ability to produce earnings per share growth at our targeted level of 5% to 7%.

Speaker 2

Turning to our Manufacturing segment, Slide 21 highlights the financial performance for the year. Strong customer demand across most end markets drove our earnings growth in 2022. BTD, our metal at the end of the year. The fabrication business produced double digit volume growth and experienced volatile steel prices during the year, with steel prices declining sharply in the second half of the year. Lower steel prices have negatively impacted our scrap metal revenues.

Speaker 2

We continue to monitor the impact of supply chains, which are improving and economic conditions that may impact customer demand and our shipping volumes. T. O. Plastics benefited from robust customer demand in 2022 along with product price increases offsetting inflationary cost pressures. Looking forward, Slide 23 highlights our 2023 market outlook for end markets served by our manufacturing segment.

Speaker 2

We expect recreational vehicle and the lawn and garden end markets to soften in 2023, especially in the back half of the year as inflation and the interest rate environment impact customers' discretionary spending. In contrast, we expect the ag, power generation and horticulture markets to remain strong throughout 2023. Slide 24 highlights our financial results from our Plastics segment in 2022. Our team effectively capitalized on extraordinary industry conditions to produce record financial results. Demand for PVC pipe declined sharply in the Q4 of the year as market conditions, including a softening housing market and lower resin prices led to distributors and contractors to reduce purchase volumes to manage their inventory levels.

Speaker 2

To this point, we have seen only modest pressure on our sales prices. We expect margins will compress in 2023 after distributor and contractor inventories are right at our Vinyltech location, our rail expansion project is underway and we are in the permitting and design phase of our plant expansion. Finally, I would like to thank all employees for their execution and persistence in 2022. Our team effectively managed a number of challenges during the year, while maintaining our focus on achieving operational and commercial excellence. Now I'll turn it over to Kevin to provide additional commentary on our financial performance in 2022 and our expectations for 2023.

Speaker 3

Well, thank you, Chuck, and good morning, everyone. 2022 was an outstanding year. Consolidated revenues increased approximately 22 percent to $1,460,000,000 and consolidated earnings were $284,000,000 All of our segments produced double digit earnings growth over 2021. Electric segment earnings improved 10%, Manufacturing was up 22% and plastics earnings increased 99%. Our return on equity in 2022 was 25.6% compared with a 19.2% return in 2021.

Speaker 3

These returns were generated on a rolling 13 month equity layer of approximately 57% 51% respectively. At 2020. 2020 2 represented the 84th consecutive year of dividend payments and we also announced As indicated annual dividend of $1.75 a share for 20.23, which represents a 6.1% increase over the 20 at 22 annual dividend. Please refer to Slide 30 as I provide an overview of 2022 segment earnings. The electric segment net earnings increased $7,500,000 over 2021.

Speaker 3

The increase in earnings was primarily driven by Increased revenues due to higher demand from commercial and industrial customers, including a new commercial load in North Dakota. Revenues also benefited from the impact of favorable weather conditions in 2022 compared to 2021. And increase in fuel recovery revenues resulting from higher purchase power and production fuel costs related to increased natural gas and market energy costs. Also driving this increase were plant outages at Coyote Station and Big Stone Plant. These items were partially offset by higher operating and maintenance costs related to increases in maintenance and other costs related to the outages at both Coyote Station and Big Stone Plant, increases in labor and employee benefit costs, higher transmission tariffs and increases in travel and other expenses.

Speaker 3

This segment has been a consistent performer over the 2017 through 2022 timeframe. It It is converted a 9% rate base growth into 9% earnings per share growth over the same time. Net earnings for the manufacturing segment increased $3,800,000 over 2021, driven by an 18% increase in revenues, driven by higher sales volumes and increase in steel material costs at BTD. Sales volumes improved 12% due to strong end market demand. At the end

Speaker 2

of the quarter. Steel material costs were

Speaker 3

up 8% over the previous year. These items were partly offset by a decline in scrap revenues due to lower scrap metal prices and lower scrap volumes. T. O. Plastics also experienced higher sales prices and volumes.

Speaker 3

Segment net earnings were positively impacted by increased sales volumes, increased sales pricing and favorable cost absorption. Net earnings from the Plastics segment increased $97,600,000 compared to 2021. Driving this change was an increase in revenues of approximately 35% due to significant increases in the sales price per and continued into 2022. This uplift was partially offset by lower sales volumes. The lower sales volumes are caused by raw material constraints during the first half of the year and softening customer demand during the last half of the year due to contractors delaying projects because of supply chain issues, a softening housing market and customers reducing purchases of PVC pipe in order to use up more of their finished goods inventory instead of buying additional PVC pipe.

Speaker 3

Our corporate costs were impacted by increased employee healthcare costs, increased professional service expenses and losses on our corporate owned life insurance policies and investments at our captive insurance company. These higher costs were partially offset by lower interest expense due to smaller amounts outstanding on the corporate credit facility And the impact of death benefit proceeds from our corporate owned life insurance. Moving to Slide 32. This reflects our business outlook for 2023 of an earnings per share range of 51% from the electric segment and 49% from our manufacturing and plastics segment net of corporate costs. This is consistent with our previous discussions that there will be elevated earnings from our manufacturing platform in 2023.

Speaker 3

Changes in segment and corporate costs guidance are as follows. 2023 Electric segment earnings guidance is increasing due to returns generated from the increase in our rate base as our average rate base in 2022 increased 3.1 percent to $1,600,000,000 and increasing sales volumes from commercial and industrial customers. 2023 electric segment guidance is based on normal weather for the year. We also expect lower operating and maintenance expenses to favorably impact 2023 earnings guidance as well. This reduction is primarily driven by lower pension costs due to an increase in the discount rate and the assumed long term rate of return.

Speaker 3

These lower pension costs are partially offset by increased operating and maintenance expenses related to the at Tubular 3 Wind Farm and the Hoot Lake Solar Farm increased employee compensation and benefit costs And the inflationary impacts on other operating and maintenance expenses. We expect our manufacturing segment earnings to 10% from last year, given overall concerns about a slowing manufacturing sector, given the continued decline in overall production as our customers continue to experience slower demand for products. Key assumptions driving this guidance, Parts sales volumes are expected to decline in 2023 driven by year over year steel price declines. Partially offsetting this decline is expected volume growth in agriculture and power generation end markets. Inflationary cost pressures and unfavorable cost absorption putting downward pressure on operating margins.

Speaker 3

Earnings at T. O. Plastics are expected to be flat year over year as increased revenues driven by customer demand and product price increases are offset by increased costs in the business. Backlog for the manufacturing segment as of December 31, 2022 is approximately $388,000,000 compared with $391,000,000 a year ago. As we've been previously communicating, our plastics segment earnings are expected to be lower and the record 2022 earnings due to the following.

Speaker 3

Lower sales volumes, especially in the first half of twenty twenty three As distributors and contractors continue to manage purchase volumes and consume current inventories given the current industry dynamics Of a slowdown in overall demand and rising interest rates impacting housing starts as developers are pulling back on the number of lots being developed. We also expect margins to decline over the year as industry supply and demand factors begin to normalize leading to reduced product sales prices. Contractors have started to see some projects being canceled or delayed. This is being driven by long lead times for some project materials as well as a speculation that material costs will be lower by middle part of 2023. And distributors are shedding inventories.

Speaker 3

This has taken longer than expected to get back to the normal level of inventories they want to carry. Our corporate costs are expected to be lower in 2023 resulting from increase in earnings generated on our cash and cash equivalents. Lower expected losses on corporate investments, lower expected contributions to our foundation, at lower expected claims on self insured health plan and lower incentive compensation costs. These items are partially offset by inflationary increases in salary and benefit costs, other operating expense categories as well as no expectation of receiving any death benefit proceeds on corporate owned life insurance. We continue to monitor various economic indicators such as single and multifamily housing starts, mortgage rates and consumer confidence levels to ensure we are well positioned when changes occur.

Speaker 3

Additionally, we are actively managing the impacts of and answer session across all of our operating companies. There continues to be concerns related to the rising interest rate environment and what impact that we'll have on earnings in 2023, especially related to variable rate debt and the need to refinance or issue new debt during the year. We assess our exposure to rising borrowing costs as low risk. Our variable rate debt consists of 2 credit facilities. We don't expect to have any outstanding borrowings on our parent company facility and minimum amounts are going to be drawn on the utility facility.

Speaker 3

The increased cost of these borrowings is considered in our 2023 guidance And due to higher levels of earnings and cash flows over the last 2 years, we are in the enviable position of being able to earn a return on our excess cash. We don't have any new debt issuances scheduled until 2024 and our next scheduled bond maturity is in December of 2026. While we recognize the additional risk of having non electric businesses in our portfolio, These businesses have the ability to generate high levels of earnings and cash flows during strong economic times. This has been demonstrated over the last 2 years. The uplift in earnings, especially driven by the plastics segment performance has further strengthened our equity layer.

Speaker 3

Our consolidated equity has increased by approximately $345,000,000 from December 31, 2020 through December 31, 2022. We now stand with a 59.4% at consolidated equity layer at the end of 2022 and we expect that to increase further in 2023. This offers us a distinct advantage as compared to the utility sector as we have no equity needs in our 5 year financing plan. As previously mentioned, our 2023 guidance reflects elevated earnings from our manufacturing platform. We currently expect our earnings mix to move to 65% from our electric segment and 35% from our manufacturing platform beginning in 2024.

Speaker 3

As part of this shift in earnings mix, we currently expect the normalized earnings from our plastics segments to be in a range of $36,000,000 to $41,000,000 Slide 38 Reflects the collective strategies of our platforms and financial performance targets. This business model serves us well and we remain well positioned to fund our rate based growth opportunities at the utility with our strong balance sheet, ample liquidity to support our businesses and strong investment grade at corporate credit ratings. We are now ready to take your questions.

Operator

Our first question will come from the line of Chris Ellinghaus from Siebert Williams. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hey, guys. How are you?

Speaker 3

Hi, Chris. So

Speaker 4

One of the things that was striking that I was looking at was the balance sheet that you were talking about. Can you just talk about how The good fortune of the balance sheet in the last couple of years is changing sort of your strategic plans for the utility.

Speaker 3

I think that it clearly gives us additional flexibility as we look to further look at additional rate based projects going forward. We have our Current 5 year plan out there, I think we had about a not quite 8.5% uplift in the capital plan from the Q2 or I'm sorry, Q2 of 2022 compared to our Q3 release And we that was driven in part by as we looked at the Inflation Reduction Act, we saw while both Impact of the Inflation Reduction Act, for example, wind powering opportunities there of about $200,000,000 and then of The MISO Tranche 1 projects that came on, we're in the midst of still putting together our amended integrated resource plan that we'll be filing with the commission at the end of March. We would expect once that's We would have an additional update on our CapEx spend, Chris, in the Q1 earnings call. And then we continue to just evaluate additional inventories of rate based projects. And so that Uplift in equity and the cash that we have just gives us further flexibility to help support that rate base growth.

Speaker 3

I mean, I should also add and we've talked about this before as well. It gives us additional flexibility with The plastics expansion project in Phoenix and then we continue to evaluate an expansion project in Georgia for BTD.

Speaker 4

So in addition to what might be in the IRP, Do you have any thoughts about the clean energy bill and how that might accelerate anything?

Speaker 2

Minnesota Clean Energy Bill? Yes. Yes. As we look through it, there's 2 components to it. The carbon free component, which we anticipate we will use REX at 4 and we will use, recs generated from our existing Wind facilities that are allocated to the Dakotas most likely to meet those at a market price Transfer to Minnesota.

Speaker 2

The second component is a need to get a at 55% renewable amount by 2,035. We currently think that that will drive Some additional renewables, but that may be outside of the 5 year capital budget forecast. Okay. Can you give us

Speaker 4

some more details on the plastics expansion, timeframe, cost, those sort of things?

Speaker 3

Yes. Chris, the collective costs, including A second line that would be sometime in the 2027 timeframe would be right around 50,000,000 And so in terms of timing, as a reminder, we completed the land acquisition in the at Q4 of 2021. As Chuck mentioned in his comments, we're now doing the rail spur expansion. And then we now in 2023, we'll also start to spend dollars related to the rest of the plant expansion, which is due to the driven by the property, the land acquisition that we did in 2021 and the rail expansion that we've been working on. There's an office expansion as a part of that and then there's a capacity expansion as well to add a new 24 inches line that would add an additional expected to add an additional £26,000,000 of at pipe capacity.

Speaker 3

So it's about an 8% uplift in our overall capacity between the two plants.

Speaker 2

Okay. Great.

Speaker 3

And then we would expect that the in that 2024 timeframe is when that line would come on. And then once that The expansion is kind of completed, then the facility is sized to support a second at the line that right now is currently being considered in that 2026, 2027 timeframe at 27 timeframe, excuse me.

Speaker 2

Okay, great. That's helpful.

Speaker 4

Kevin, What was the foundation contribution from corporate in 2022?

Speaker 3

3,000,000

Speaker 4

And lastly, you talked about how there was a drawdown of PVC Inventories in the second half of the year and you're kind of expecting that to continue in the first half of the year. Was there that much Incremental inventory or was the slowdown just that dramatic?

Speaker 3

Chris, I would say it was a combination of both where we first saw it was in Q3 When there was 2 announced Resin price decreases that occurred. There was one that we were aware of as we released 2nd quarter earnings and then there was a second Kind of a large one in the latter part of August, early September and that's where there was Recognition that there was a fair amount of inventory that was sitting in the channel at distributors and contractors and They recognize that they just needed to use up that higher priced inventory in the projects that they had instead of buying additional Higher priced inventory, certainly anticipating that probably sales prices would start to come down. As we moved into Q4, excuse me, we started to get additional information about Projects being either canceled or delayed, we learned of additional supply chain issues, not Not necessarily with PVC pipe, but other types of construction materials that go into these projects where That was causing a slowdown as well. And then of course, just the overall slowdown of the housing market continued into at the Q4 and then certainly is expected to continue into 2023.

Speaker 3

The other thought is that we're seeing is that contractors, distributors are expecting that By the middle of 'twenty three, the materials PVC pipe and such will start to come down and that they have their views in general, they have sufficient inventories to probably work through most of that.

Speaker 2

Okay, great. Thanks for

Speaker 4

the color guys and congrats on a tremendous year. Thanks, Chris.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Brian Russo from Sidoti. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning. Hey, so just first on the utility, it Seems as if you have the interest market interest rate pressure on interest expense under control. And just looking at 2023 earnings relative to where your rate base, it looks like you're earning very close to your ROE. Are those trends We can expect that to continue despite inflationary pressures.

Speaker 2

Yes, Brian, this is Chuck. I think we can, at least through 2023. We had Significant O and M expense in our at plant operations that we don't think will repeat year over year and we are seeing a decrease in pension expense. We do have other items going up, but we do think that those 2 tailwinds help.

Speaker 5

Right. So outside of maybe the IRP process, you have no rate cases planned in any of the 3 jurisdictions?

Speaker 2

We do not. We go through exercise every year and by June, we will complete cost of service studies by jurisdiction. I would say at this point, we don't anticipate any rate cases. If there would be one, it is most likely in North at the end of the quarter. But overall, I would anticipate that we are not filing a rate case this year.

Speaker 5

Okay, got it. And then just on the plastics side, just to clarify the 36,000,000 to 41,000,000 of normalized earnings. Does that exclude this 8% capacity expansion you have planned?

Speaker 3

No, it doesn't, Brian. So that is baked into the longer Term view, and again, it's probably we won't start to see any real benefits from it in that Kind of 'twenty four, 'twenty five timeframe.

Speaker 5

Okay, great. And then just lastly on the CPG.

Speaker 3

Just a reminder that That range is from a 2024 forward timeframe.

Speaker 5

Yes. Right. And then just lastly on BTD, it seems like While you might be seeing a slowdown in some of your end markets just due to The macro environment, are you still growing top line and it's just or is top line like organic growth slowing, which is eating which is impacting your margins. Just trying to get a sense of what's structural and what might just be, is it your cost structure or is it just what we see the

Speaker 3

Yes. Brian, it's we're not seeing top line growth in 2023 and it's a large part of that is the decline in steel prices from at 2020 2 to where they're currently at in 2023. We as we mentioned, we're seeing the ag market, The power generation market are favorable, but then as Chuck mentioned, direct vehicle, lawn and lawn and garden are expected to slow. And so overall, we're seeing a drop in top expecting to see a drop in top line revenue in 2023. And another key factor is the scrap revenue.

Speaker 3

Scrap prices in 20 22, We'll probably average around 550 a ton and we're seeing that now in the 400 at a time range in 23. And so that's having a pretty significant impact on our year over year earnings as well. And then we are continuing to see inflationary pressures on the cost side of the business in terms of We do have inflationary costs or increases built into our guidance in terms of at wage and benefit pressures. We certainly are seeing increasing healthcare costs in the business And other types of inflationary pressures as well.

Speaker 5

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. I'm not showing any further questions in the queue. I'd like to turn the call back over to Chuck for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Well, thank you for joining our call and your interest in Otter Tail Corporation. I would again like to thank our employees for their efforts in making 2022 an Looking forward, we expect 2023 to be a transitional year as industry conditions within the PVC pipe industry normalize. In total, we expect to generate earnings per share in the range of $3.76 to $4.06 Over the long term, we are well positioned with our utility growth strategy and predictable earnings stream, complemented by our strategic Manufacturing and Plastics businesses to achieve our financial targets. We expect to produce compound growth in earnings at the end of the call. Thank you, Steve.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everyone. Good morning, everyone. Good morning, everyone. Again, thank you for joining our call and we look forward to speaking with you next quarter.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Everyone have a