NYSE:MC Moelis & Company Q1 2023 Earnings Report $54.94 -0.19 (-0.34%) As of 05/9/2025 03:59 PM Eastern Earnings HistoryForecast Moelis & Company EPS ResultsActual EPS$0.05Consensus EPS $0.11Beat/MissMissed by -$0.06One Year Ago EPS$0.95Moelis & Company Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$187.20 millionExpected Revenue$186.60 millionBeat/MissBeat by +$600.00 thousandYoY Revenue Growth-38.00%Moelis & Company Announcement DetailsQuarterQ1 2023Date4/26/2023TimeAfter Market ClosesConference Call DateWednesday, April 26, 2023Conference Call Time5:00PM ETUpcoming EarningsMoelis & Company's Q2 2025 earnings is scheduled for Wednesday, July 23, 2025, with a conference call scheduled at 5:00 PM ET. Check back for transcripts, audio, and key financial metrics as they become available.Conference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptSlide DeckPress Release (8-K)Quarterly Report (10-Q)Earnings HistoryCompany ProfileSlide DeckFull Screen Slide DeckPowered by Moelis & Company Q1 2023 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrApril 26, 2023 ShareLink copied to clipboard.There are 10 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Afternoon, and welcome to the Moelis and Company Earnings Conference Call for the Q1 of 2023. To begin, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Matt Soukroff. Please proceed. Speaker 100:00:12Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for Moelis and Company's Q1 2023 financial results conference call. On the phone today are Ken Mullis, Chairman and CEO and Joe Simon, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to note that the remarks made on this call may contain certain forward looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including those identified from time to time in the Risk Factors section of Molson Companies' filings with the SEC, actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated. The firm undertakes no obligation to update any forward looking statements. Our comments today include references to certain adjusted financial measures. Speaker 100:00:48We believe these measures, when presented together with Financial measures with the relevant GAAP financial information and other information required by Reg G is provided in the firm's earnings release, which can be found on our Investor Relations website at investors. Moelis.com. I will now turn the call over to Ken. Speaker 200:01:14Good afternoon, everyone. Our Q1 adjusted revenues of $185,000,000 were down 38% from the prior year. The decrease in revenues is primarily attributed to a significant slowdown in the global M and A market, which experienced a 46% decline we completed transactions during the same period. Despite seeing more activity in M and A at the beginning of the year, the impact of the recent banking crisis I'm often asked what we would have done differently if we go back to the Great financial crisis of 2,0072008 when we founded the firm. And my answer is always the same, we were extremely aggressive And I wish we had been more aggressive in adding talent to our business during that unique moment in time. Speaker 200:02:00The current dislocation in the banking market has once again given us the opportunity to expand our franchise for the long term. As we've consistently pointed out for the last several years, our most significant areas of white space have been technology, industrials and healthcare, where we have historically been underweight relative to the size and potential of these sectors. For context, technology and industrials have produced the 2 largest global fee pools, each totaling approximately $30,000,000,000 since 2018 and healthcare represents approximately 20% of U. S. GDP. Speaker 200:02:37These markets are enormous and the need for high quality advice is significant. This is the reason that in the last two quarters, we have announced 22 Managing Director hires who are leaders in their specialty. As you might have seen in our announcement earlier today, we have significantly expanded our technology investment banking franchise with the hiring of 11 Managing Directors, many of whom have worked together for a number of years. They build on our core technology capabilities and expand the breadth and depth of our subsector coverage. With the addition of these senior hires, we now have 25 technology focused Managing Directors and have doubled the size of our Technology Investment Banking team. Speaker 200:03:23Additionally, we continue to invest in other areas that are key strategic importance to we hired 1 Managing Director in our Private Funds Advisory Group, who joined in April, and 2 Managing Directors who will join over the coming months, 1 focused on Industrials and one focused on capital structure advisory. We've positioned the firm with an unlevered balance sheet to please note that we will be pleased with our earnings release. Unlike many industries, however, our investments go directly through our income statement. As a result, our compensation ratio and pre tax margin will fall outside the bounds of our target range until the market improves and these new hires become Speaker 300:04:06we are thrilled with the MDs who have joined. These investments are greatly enhanced our capabilities, and I've never been more optimistic about the I'll pass it over to Joe now. Thanks, Ken. Ken highlighted our revenue, so I'll start with expenses. We accrued our Q1 comp ratio to be 80%. Speaker 300:04:25We're focused on investing in the business, so our compensation ratio will remain elevated relative to our target range. Depending on revenues, a higher comp ratio is likely to persist for the next 12 to 18 months. Turning to non comp expenses. Our 1st quarter non comp ratio was 22.1%, largely a function of reduced revenues. The underlying run rate for non compensation expenses remains approximately $40,000,000 per quarter. Speaker 300:04:53Based on our expectation of market conditions and senior hiring, our underlying effective corporate tax rate is expected to be elevated primarily as a result of the combination of lower pretax income and relatively large nondeductible expenses. We expect the long term target of 27% to 28% to resume once we can achieve a more normalized level of productivity. Regarding capital allocation, the Board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.60 per share. Also during the Q1, we repurchased approximately 1,100,000 shares totaling $45,000,000 the buyback was in connection with the tax withholding related to our annual RSU vest. And lastly, we continue to maintain a strong balance sheet with no funded debt. Speaker 300:05:33We'll now open it up for questions. Operator00:05:51As a reminder, if you are using a speakerphone, please remember to pick up your handset before asking your question. We will pause here briefly as questions are registered. The first question comes from the line of Devin Ryan of JMP Securities. Please proceed. Speaker 400:06:10Hey, great. Ken. Hey, Joe. I guess first question, obviously, on the comp expense, here are the comments. Just trying to think through some of the moving parts here. Speaker 400:06:21Does the comp accrual include any bonus accrual? And then is there any other parameters you can just maybe help us think about around like the full year because of both the revenue environment, but all the hiring That you're doing and then just I guess related to that, what does that imply for capital return potential? Speaker 200:06:42Let me start on the accrual technicalities, Ken. I'll turn it over to Joe on some of the what went into the accrual. But So just how you think about this, I mean, this morning 44 people showed up at our office in the technology group. In fact, it was pretty let's call it up it was positive that everybody got to start As of today, I mean, and we were able to bring the whole team in and get them going. But I don't think they'll be immediately productive, But they will hit our payroll immediately. Speaker 200:07:20And the way to think about it and by the way, that's just that's 11 of the MDs of the 22. We also took Advantage of hiring some of the bankers out of Credit Suisse. We did some very significant health care hires at the beginning of the year, and that goes into the 20 2 MDs we're talking about and the juniors that support them. The way we're thinking about it, And I know it's hard to put this into a pro form a, but it's almost the equivalent of a pretty substantial acquisition in the technology sector, except that it all goes through your income statement. You put it on and you don't capitalize, you don't there's no upfront, but you end up covering the 1st few months of ramp up. Speaker 200:08:08And we're trying to estimate, Devin, you asked a very difficult question, I'll let Joe get to the is where does the revenue go? That's hard enough, by the way. Our comp ratio would be hard trying to figure out what the Fed and the banking environment is, where it is, what our revenues are going to be and then we have to overlay that, which is what are the increased expenses going to be from carrying Essentially 15% to 20% expansion of the headcount during this period. So Again, I'll let Joe talk to the specifics of the accrual. Yes. Speaker 200:08:43So Speaker 300:08:44to answer your first question, yes, we did make an accrual for bonus this quarter in order to kind of push it to the 80%, which we looked at, as being kind of the best estimate for the full year. 2, with respect to how we are thinking about the macro environment, we're thinking about it as being kind of relatively consistent with where we are right now. And basically we factored in all those new hires. So we factored in only what we know today into that, and one of the things that we don't know is where revenues are ultimately going to land, And we also don't know what the market for banking compensation is going to be, which will happen at the end of the year. But that's our best guess right now and that will obviously The adjusted when and if appropriate. Speaker 400:09:38Yes, got it. Okay, thanks. And so I guess the other part of that question is, it would seem just with all the elevated hiring and then the revenue backdrop that the company is under earning the dividend. So I guess just the question is, why continue to pay the dividend in the near term? To the extent that's true, maybe I'm off there, but just kind of thought process. Speaker 400:09:57And then the other part of what we're talking about is these additions, it's kind of under a unique circumstance. And so I'm assuming that they would probably ramp faster than normal, just given that some of them are joining probably with little interruption from where they're leaving. So Maybe that's kind of a follow-up, but there's 2 different parts to it. Speaker 200:10:19Yes. The answer to your second part is We weren't really sure of when everybody would be able to join and what all the complications might have been. We've gotten through that. And I think you're right. The fact that we've gotten to a, I would call it an agreed method for how we're going to cover existing clients, Service deals in progress, I do think it will be more rapid. Speaker 200:10:44And I will tell you that was happening on a real time basis. We put the announcement out this morning, So you can imagine when all of those details got done. So you're right about that. We do expect a more rapid than normal uptick, especially since we've avoided sort of a 90 day garden leave or any of those issues. On the dividend, look, we are debt free. Speaker 200:11:12We are sitting with excess capital. We think we've just added significant value. I think most companies, if they make an acquisition, don't cut their dividend. We are cash generative and we're very confident that we've just added significant value to the firm and very comfortable with the dividend. Speaker 400:11:32Got it. Okay. I will let others ask, but I appreciate you taking the questions. Operator00:11:40Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Ken Worthington of JPMorgan. Please proceed. Speaker 500:11:49Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. So you kind of fleshed out Big hiring MDs from Credit Suisse and elsewhere. You also mentioned that you wish you sort of built and hired more around COVID. So given all that you've done thus far and recently and quickly, what is the appetite for you to build even more here? Speaker 500:12:19And I'll go really out on a limb and say you've had Some failures or near failures of some pretty high profile banks, like is there the opportunity to maybe broaden talent from those businesses or even lift out some advisory businesses that they had, sort of further building out your business and operations, I'll just start there. What is the appetite and opportunity there? Speaker 200:12:52Okay. Just to reframe one thing, I was actually the last time we really moved this was the GFC. You mentioned COVID, but It was really in the global financial crisis where we expanded way faster than most people thought was possible because of the availability was unique Back then, not COVID. But let me start with one thing. I think if you went back and you listened to our conference calls, I must have said technology to the point of making everybody nauseous that we could use more. Speaker 200:13:22And technology was very hard to get enough throwaway, you can hire a person here or a person there, even that was a struggle. The biggest fee pool, I think, by far right now is software. And in this group, I'd say you define 7 or 8 of the people as touching on the software category and by doing it at once and in mass, you just have the throwaway to become important in the space. By the way, marry it up with the fact that we have an existing coverage platform. And again, I'll spend 2 seconds just to explain. Speaker 200:14:01Our coverage platform was doing very well, mostly on corporates and strategics. And it's interesting, the group that we Brought in is very much weighted towards sponsors. So we think the fit was almost perfect. So that was why we did. I mean, that's a large chunk, about half of the hiring that I've described to you. Speaker 200:14:27And let me say this, we would continue to be aggressive if something like that were to come. I mean that seemed to be a slow fast ball right down the middle for what we needed to move the firm into the next generation and really extend our growth. The same thing happened with a group of healthcare bankers that we took out. And Ken, to your question, if there is a space and I don't see it exactly, there is some one offs out there, but you're right, if it were something we needed that we felt like technology and software was so integral to the future growth of the company. Yes, we would continue to be aggressive. Speaker 200:15:11I think I said it on the last call is these types of teams don't come up often. They're very difficult to do in a good market. I would tell you in 2021, there would have been zero chance of doing this. And The negative is it only happens during tough times. It's tough to pull the trigger because somebody will ask me about the business soon And I'll say it's not great out there in M and A land, but that's the only time it becomes available. Speaker 500:15:44And then how do you think about taking losses? So the earnings were pretty close to breakeven. The outlook doesn't seem to be better. If it deteriorates, are you concerned about pushing into losses or reasonable sized losses to build the business for the longer term? Or is the focus so much on the longer term, losses for a couple of quarters or the year don't phase you and it's really about the long term. Speaker 200:16:19I don't want to lose money. And that's not a goal of ours. But the difference So and look, I think that the Q1, do I see it getting worse? I don't know. It's pretty bad. Speaker 200:16:33Q1 was pretty bad. I'm hoping that we have slight that it starts to get better from here. I'm not planning on losses. I don't want losses. But let me say the one thing about it. Speaker 200:16:45If I were we said it's somewhat like an acquisition, where To gather a group of people like this might cost several $100,000,000 Now that would not result in a loss. It would result in a capitalization of the cost. If the cost of doing this is to run $5,000,000 through your income statement, it feels bad. But that's cheaper than several $100,000,000 of acquiring it. I get it that doesn't go through your P and L, Well, the return on investment on what we just did is, I would say, significantly better Than anything we could have envisioned putting up the money in some type of M and A transaction, the negative is it will pressure the income statement in the short term. Speaker 500:17:40Okay. Thank you very much. Speaker 300:17:41Yes. And I Speaker 400:17:41would just add to that, Speaker 300:17:44that just remember that if we we're not expecting losses, If we were to have some modest losses, it's not cash flow. Cash flow is different than earnings in our business, and it's important to keep that in mind. Speaker 500:18:00Thank you. Operator00:18:05Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Matt Moon of KDW. Please proceed. Speaker 600:18:14Hi, good afternoon. Just one for me regarding the hiring, obviously, that was extremely strong and the result of some opportunistic activities, but I guess just looking at the outlook and kind of revenue pipelines across industry, just curious how long of a sustained downturn or to what magnitude would be needed to come about before you would consider addressing either the headcount or even at the minimum freeze hiring? And then in terms of recruiting packages, has there been at all a shift in terms of how these are structured in this type of environment, any color there would be great. Speaker 200:18:58So we are adjusting our headcount by the way. I think we have been much more active in also exiting Every year we're disciplined. I don't want to say we're disciplined now. Every year we probably eliminate between 2% 4% of our headcount on managed attrition. I think we're somewhere near double that, and we have been doing that aggressively. Speaker 200:19:23But the business is the people. The business is quality people motivated and also Structured against the economy, which technology and healthcare is where the economy is going and where we could have more throwaway was definitely a positive for the future of the company. Are we changing the packages? Yes, sure. Packages are different. Speaker 200:19:52They change all the time. And It will change with the economy and the market and how unique and singular the talent is you're looking for and how irreplaceable it might be. So we do, do that. But our I'll give you our pipeline, we think it's about down 20%, something like that. It's a pretty strong pipeline. Speaker 200:20:18But as I said on the last call, I think it remains a fragile pipeline, meaning that it's very hard To take your backlog to market to complete an M and A deal, financing is still very difficult, valuations are in fluctuation, you've heard all that. So this could go on, it'll definitely go on another quarter, and it could go on 6 months. But Again, having done this in the GFC and seeing that it basically created the firm, Having the talent and the organization and 2 years later, that was the asset and you withstood the temporary downturn. The asset we're building is a unique franchise in technology and in healthcare and in sponsors And in media, and I do think that asset, although not capitalized on a balance sheet, the people will be here for longer than most assets that are capitalized. We hope those people will be here for a very long time. Speaker 200:21:24And so we think the return is significant and will be to the shareholders benefit over a long period of time. Speaker 600:21:35Great. And then Joe, just one more of a cleanup type question. Just last quarter, you talked about a kind of 6 to 8 percentage point impact from retirement eligible share based comp. Just curious if that was kind of in the right Range of that impact in the Q1, or any more specifics you could provide on that actual impact that came out of the quarter? Yes. Speaker 300:22:01The 6% to 8% was kind of referencing kind of flat revenues with the Q4. So as you know, now We were a little lower than that, so it might have been a little so that ratio would have been probably a little higher when you kind of do the math. Speaker 400:22:22Okay, great. I'll hop back Speaker 600:22:23in the queue. Thanks, guys. Operator00:22:29Thank you. The next question comes from Steven Chubak of Wolfe Research. Please proceed. Speaker 700:22:37Good afternoon. This is Brendan O'Brien filling in for Stephen. So first, I just want to touch on the M and A environment. In the press release, Ken, you indicated that you felt the market was in a holding pattern at the moment. We've heard you and your peers talk about a few different conditions that are needed want to get a mark to market on these various factors at the moment relative to where they were last quarter. Speaker 700:23:08And what do you view as being a potential catalyst for M and A in the near to intermediate term. Speaker 200:23:17Probably the single most difficult Is financing right now just I think the recent bank Problems have caused credit spreads to widen. I think they'll continue to, by the way. I think that's a fundamental. You had the Fed. In order to do a transaction, there's a confidence level. Speaker 200:23:40And I think people feel like they're out in a minefield and You look left and you see a bank blow up and you don't know how many mines are out there. I just think it's one of those things too, which is confidence level that you can underwrite the risks and sort of have a nobody ever had certainty. I think there's always risks, the risks and The known unknowns and the unknown unknowns. But for right now, I think people are just waiting for just some stabilization that they can underwrite, even if you had to underwrite 5.5 Fed rate, a wider credit spread. I think people could get there, but you have all those issues moving and that may be It's just too easy to say why don't we wait for a little more information before going forward. Speaker 200:24:26Again, like we just did M and A And making these decisions involves making a long term bet. And I think having all factors moving, I'd like to 2 out of the 3 of those to stabilize. And so possibly the Fed stabilizes And maybe we get the bank market to stabilize. But I will say, I think the credit spreads are going to fundamentally be wider than they've ever been. And then you have the Fed as the benchmark rate, which is higher than Spence, I think those things are going to take their toll. Speaker 700:25:06That's great color. Thanks for that, Ken. And then I guess, not to beat a head dead horse, but pivoting to the comp ratio. In your prepared remarks, you mentioned that the comp ratio could remain elevated the next 18 to 12 or 12 to 18 months depending on the environment. Just as I understand that obviously, you mentioned that it's difficult to even set the comp ratio for this year in this type of environment. Speaker 700:25:31But as we think out into next year, just want to get a sense what level of revenue or revenue growth you would need to be able to see to work the comp ratio back below 60% on a full year basis? And also just want to clarify one of your earlier remarks. Were you indicating that the full year comp ratio will be 80% for this year? Speaker 300:25:54So to answer the last part of your question first, yes, that's our current best estimate based on what we're based on all the assumptions that we've talked about, kind of a consistent macro, these new hires And, but without the understanding of where banker comp is going to be at the end of the year and without knowing what Revenues where revenues will actually land. I think in terms of next year, we're just kind of providing some caution, we don't know when things will stabilize on the macro front. They could, to Ken's point, stabilize in the next 6 months, In which case, it would be a different answer and the 12 months would probably be more likely. But ultimately, the macro Sustains for a little longer. That's why we're saying that it could bleed into 2024 as well. Speaker 200:26:53Yes. Look, My guess is, especially since we were putting together our Q and some of this while we were still trying to figure out whether we would get team on the field today or in 90 days or each individual, especially on the tech team, what their Guardant leave requirements, non compete and all that was. It just so happens that everybody got to show up this morning and we have an agreement on how we can continue to service existing clients. That is a positive to the point of The hires causing the comp ratio to stay elevated longer than Just this year, I would say that's probably not what we're that's not going to I think that it's a this year phenomenon as to the hires and maybe we went 12 to 18 months just being conservative because Who knows how bad the market is for how long. But if I had to break it down, I'd say most of the compensation, given how quickly we've got them on the field, should be covered by the production of the hires By the Q1 of next year, then you tell me how the market is, how the M and A market is. Speaker 700:28:16Thanks. Thanks for taking my questions. Operator00:28:23Thank you. The next question comes from Brennan Hawken of UBS. Please proceed. Speaker 800:28:31Hi. Thanks for taking my question. This is Ben Rubin filling in for Brennan. Appreciate the aggressiveness on the recruitment front given the market environment. Just could you give us a rough sense of how the bankers and MDs that you've just brought on compare in terms of their productivity to your existing tech group? Speaker 800:28:51And also what type of trajectory should we expect in terms of their ramp up now that they're in the building? Thank you. Speaker 200:28:59So I think because these are selected, I would put them in the top quartile to By the way, I'm just talking about our full plethora of bankers. I think, not comparing it to the tech bankers we have, but you're probably trying to do what's the revenue per MD. I would say they're top they would fit in the top third, top quartile of where we've been, something like that on average, and that's on average across them. And I think the ramp up, which I was Again, concerned about the tie ups you have when you do this, trying to move people. I think it will be a lot quicker than I thought because we were able to reach agreement as to lots of things regarding that information, clients, etcetera, they're pretty aggressive group of people. Speaker 200:29:55In the context of the market, I think they'll be back up to their full run rate in 3 to 4 months and then but then of course the new deals they're bringing in have to close, so that delays a little bit. But they're here. All of them are on premise. All of them are working and they have I mean one of the very unique things about it is they even have access to existing information and client access, which a lot of times when you cross hire somebody, you have a lot of issues Speaker 800:30:32Great. Thank you for the color. And just to pivot a bit away from the recruiting, given that the restructuring environment seems to be improving each quarter, how are you thinking about the boost to revenue from restructuring this year or is it more of a 2024, 2025 event? And also what percentage of your advisory revenue did restructuring contribute this quarter? I know historically it's been around 20%, 25%, but how quickly could we see it rebound to those levels? Speaker 800:31:02Thank you. Speaker 200:31:04I think the best way to look at that is a lot of restructuring right now is also rescue financing. So our capital advisory, our capital markets plus restructuring was about 35% of revenue. You're right, restructuring was Probably right around the numbers you were talking about, if you really peel it off, but those things are starting to work hand in hand. And I do see an acceleration. Again, we talked about like a year ago when the Fed started raising, did we see restructuring? Speaker 200:31:37Well, I think I said back then, when you make 1 quarter of elevated interest payments, it's pretty easy. When you start to make a full year And then that full year is at the full Fed benchmark up where it is now. And lastly, I also think The ability to refinance, that is closing. It's getting tighter. People are getting more aware of how difficult that market is and Starting to call in for advice earlier. Speaker 200:32:07I think we're starting to see an inflection point where restructuring and liability management is inflecting upwards pretty rapidly and could continue that way if the market stays difficult. Speaker 500:32:22Great. Thank you Speaker 800:32:23for taking my questions. Operator00:32:28Thank you. The next question comes from the line of James Yaro of Goldman Sachs. Please proceed. Speaker 900:32:37Good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions. So maybe if we just turn to the non M and A non restructuring businesses, how are the large buckets within that part of the business performing in this weaker macro environment? And where would you expect those to improve as well? Speaker 600:32:57Well, the Speaker 200:32:57other big buckets we have Private Funds Advisory and Capital Markets. Capital Markets actually had a good Q1. And as I said, if you Assume restructuring was about 20%. That was and the combined 35%, it was about 15%. And the only reason I fudge on that is because Some of these bleed into each other. Speaker 200:33:18They start in one place and are solved in another place. And I do believe that Bespoke Capital is going to be the name of the game. There is nothing you can just put out into a sales force Plain vanilla, not well, not nothing. I shouldn't say absolutes. But there are very few IPOs, very few stock offerings. Speaker 200:33:41Investment grade debt market is still active, so that can get done. But anything below BB and even equity needed It's getting to be very structured, very bespoke and those calls are going into pension funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, the big private equity credit firms. And I actually think we're a better Access Point and a more creative and nimble Access Point for that than some of the large distributed universal banks. So I think that will go up with restructuring. I think you'll see that continue to climb. Speaker 900:34:19That makes a lot of sense. And if you just I'd love to hear your longer term perspective on what the stress on the banking industry means for the M and A business. And then within that, how do you think it affects different types of M and A, be it large cap M and A versus mid cap versus small cap M and A, if there are differences there? Speaker 200:34:42There's a lot in that question. So First, look, the distress and it just the access to capital is sort of lubricant for M and A and it is very difficult out there. Now, one of the areas that you asked me about the other buckets, I do think the market is going to be rife with activism, Because you have companies that are going to have difficulties and some of it will just be the market and their capitalization, it will give openings to people who want an opening in order to get their voice heard, they're looking for that opening. It's going to be hard to avoid those openings in a difficult market, and we have a very good activism group, too, that's very active. And I just want to say that was part of the buckets that are non M and A that are accelerating. Speaker 200:35:37The difference between large Cap and small, they both have their own problems by the way. Large cap has a regulatory DOJ problem in that you truly have to have courage to attempt one of those right now. Now, it's a non overlap. If it clearly works, I get it. But It's amazing the theories that have come up for the DOJ to get involved with large cap deals. Speaker 200:36:01And the exact opposite, the small cap deals But their financing is most often non investment grade and bank or sulfur related financing And that is just very expensive to go after. So I think both Parts of the market are having their own issues at the same time. Speaker 900:36:26Okay. That's very helpful. Thanks so much, Ken. Operator00:36:33Thank you. The next question comes from Ryan Kenny of Morgan Stanley. Please proceed. Speaker 800:36:41Hey, good afternoon. Speaker 200:36:43Good afternoon. Speaker 800:36:46Can you update us on what you're seeing in terms of M and A appetite among sponsors versus strategics? And on the sponsor side, understand that every deal and firm is nuanced, but in aggregate, how long can this group sit on the sidelines before they have to deploy capital? Speaker 200:37:03Well, I do think the sponsor community is on the sidelines. I think they would prefer not to make They'd almost prefer not to make a decision. And look, if there's a, again, a fat pitch, they're going to go for it. But on the margin, I think they would like to be able to model better than they have and they would like slightly better capital than they So the whole thing is just not optimal for them to move. Now you remember, it's a big world. Speaker 200:37:29I'm not talking about every deal, But on the margin, that is where it is. But they continue to have capital. They continue to raise capital. They continue to want to be innovative around that capital and we will see it. There is a lot of pent up demand to either exit successful companies that were invested in 3 to 5 years ago and then to put new capital work. Speaker 200:37:55It is that is the business they're in. They're not in the business of sitting on their hands. So they will move. And that's why I think they will move well before the markets move. I think like in COVID, I remember our June call of 2020. Speaker 200:38:21I think we did it in August and we were seeing the sponsors realized that the Fed will have their back for whatever reason that COVID was going to be taken care of, that earnings were going to be okay, and they were extremely active. And that was well before remember the sponsors are actually trying to take advantage of anomalies in the market. So they're not the last to move. They will be the first to move out of this and try to figure out where they can create value for their investors or asking them to figure this out. So I do think that M and A was the first into the tank in this market because the Sponsor Group was the first to realize that the Fed was serious and it was going to get ugly and they started to pull Their deals in last February, March, April. Speaker 200:39:10I think they'll be the 1st to reach out and put capital out into a market they think will be will award them. Remember, they don't have to mark to market quarterly well, they do have to sorry, they do have to mark to market quarterly, but they are in it for long term investment gains. So they can put money up on the basis of a 3 to 5 year business plan. I think they'll be the first move. And then strategics are still very active. Speaker 200:39:37Our conversations in the strategic corporate market are very active. And it's just a matter of I think it's for them, it's just a matter of stabilize on pricing And also getting a good read on the DOJ. That's been an issue. Operator00:39:55Thank you. Thank you. There are currently no additional questions registered at this time. So I will pass the conference back over to the management team for any closing remarks. Speaker 200:40:10Thank you. I know our earnings release this time was probably more complicated than most given what we've Happened in the last 24 hours and a significant hiring. Feel free to call Joe or myself if anybody has any follow-up questions. Thank you. Operator00:40:26And with that, we will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect yourRead morePowered by Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallMoelis & Company Q1 202300:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2x Earnings DocumentsSlide DeckPress Release(8-K)Quarterly report(10-Q) Moelis & Company Earnings HeadlinesMoelis Accelerates Momentum of Private Funds Advisory Business with Appointments of Jeff Hammer and Paul SanabriaApril 30, 2025 | finance.yahoo.comDo These 3 Checks Before Buying Moelis & Company (NYSE:MC) For Its Upcoming DividendApril 30, 2025 | finance.yahoo.comWatch This Robotics Demo Before July 23rdJeff Brown, the tech legend who picked shares of Nvidia in 2016 before they jumped by more than 22,000%... Just did a demo of what Nvidia’s CEO said will be "the first multitrillion-dollar robotics industry."May 10, 2025 | Brownstone Research (Ad)Moelis Accelerates Momentum of Private Funds Advisory Business with Appointments of Jeff Hammer ...April 30, 2025 | gurufocus.comMorgan Stanley Sticks to Its Sell Rating for Moelis (MC)April 25, 2025 | markets.businessinsider.comMoelis reports Q1 EPS 64c, consensus 55cApril 24, 2025 | markets.businessinsider.comSee More Moelis & Company Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like Moelis & Company? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on Moelis & Company and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About Moelis & CompanyMoelis & Co. operates as a holding company. It engages in the provision of financial advisory, capital raising and asset management services to a client base including corporations, governments, sovereign wealth funds and financial sponsors. The firm focuses on clients including large public multinational corporations, middle market private companies, financial sponsors, entrepreneurs and governments. 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There are 10 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Afternoon, and welcome to the Moelis and Company Earnings Conference Call for the Q1 of 2023. To begin, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Matt Soukroff. Please proceed. Speaker 100:00:12Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for Moelis and Company's Q1 2023 financial results conference call. On the phone today are Ken Mullis, Chairman and CEO and Joe Simon, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to note that the remarks made on this call may contain certain forward looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including those identified from time to time in the Risk Factors section of Molson Companies' filings with the SEC, actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated. The firm undertakes no obligation to update any forward looking statements. Our comments today include references to certain adjusted financial measures. Speaker 100:00:48We believe these measures, when presented together with Financial measures with the relevant GAAP financial information and other information required by Reg G is provided in the firm's earnings release, which can be found on our Investor Relations website at investors. Moelis.com. I will now turn the call over to Ken. Speaker 200:01:14Good afternoon, everyone. Our Q1 adjusted revenues of $185,000,000 were down 38% from the prior year. The decrease in revenues is primarily attributed to a significant slowdown in the global M and A market, which experienced a 46% decline we completed transactions during the same period. Despite seeing more activity in M and A at the beginning of the year, the impact of the recent banking crisis I'm often asked what we would have done differently if we go back to the Great financial crisis of 2,0072008 when we founded the firm. And my answer is always the same, we were extremely aggressive And I wish we had been more aggressive in adding talent to our business during that unique moment in time. Speaker 200:02:00The current dislocation in the banking market has once again given us the opportunity to expand our franchise for the long term. As we've consistently pointed out for the last several years, our most significant areas of white space have been technology, industrials and healthcare, where we have historically been underweight relative to the size and potential of these sectors. For context, technology and industrials have produced the 2 largest global fee pools, each totaling approximately $30,000,000,000 since 2018 and healthcare represents approximately 20% of U. S. GDP. Speaker 200:02:37These markets are enormous and the need for high quality advice is significant. This is the reason that in the last two quarters, we have announced 22 Managing Director hires who are leaders in their specialty. As you might have seen in our announcement earlier today, we have significantly expanded our technology investment banking franchise with the hiring of 11 Managing Directors, many of whom have worked together for a number of years. They build on our core technology capabilities and expand the breadth and depth of our subsector coverage. With the addition of these senior hires, we now have 25 technology focused Managing Directors and have doubled the size of our Technology Investment Banking team. Speaker 200:03:23Additionally, we continue to invest in other areas that are key strategic importance to we hired 1 Managing Director in our Private Funds Advisory Group, who joined in April, and 2 Managing Directors who will join over the coming months, 1 focused on Industrials and one focused on capital structure advisory. We've positioned the firm with an unlevered balance sheet to please note that we will be pleased with our earnings release. Unlike many industries, however, our investments go directly through our income statement. As a result, our compensation ratio and pre tax margin will fall outside the bounds of our target range until the market improves and these new hires become Speaker 300:04:06we are thrilled with the MDs who have joined. These investments are greatly enhanced our capabilities, and I've never been more optimistic about the I'll pass it over to Joe now. Thanks, Ken. Ken highlighted our revenue, so I'll start with expenses. We accrued our Q1 comp ratio to be 80%. Speaker 300:04:25We're focused on investing in the business, so our compensation ratio will remain elevated relative to our target range. Depending on revenues, a higher comp ratio is likely to persist for the next 12 to 18 months. Turning to non comp expenses. Our 1st quarter non comp ratio was 22.1%, largely a function of reduced revenues. The underlying run rate for non compensation expenses remains approximately $40,000,000 per quarter. Speaker 300:04:53Based on our expectation of market conditions and senior hiring, our underlying effective corporate tax rate is expected to be elevated primarily as a result of the combination of lower pretax income and relatively large nondeductible expenses. We expect the long term target of 27% to 28% to resume once we can achieve a more normalized level of productivity. Regarding capital allocation, the Board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.60 per share. Also during the Q1, we repurchased approximately 1,100,000 shares totaling $45,000,000 the buyback was in connection with the tax withholding related to our annual RSU vest. And lastly, we continue to maintain a strong balance sheet with no funded debt. Speaker 300:05:33We'll now open it up for questions. Operator00:05:51As a reminder, if you are using a speakerphone, please remember to pick up your handset before asking your question. We will pause here briefly as questions are registered. The first question comes from the line of Devin Ryan of JMP Securities. Please proceed. Speaker 400:06:10Hey, great. Ken. Hey, Joe. I guess first question, obviously, on the comp expense, here are the comments. Just trying to think through some of the moving parts here. Speaker 400:06:21Does the comp accrual include any bonus accrual? And then is there any other parameters you can just maybe help us think about around like the full year because of both the revenue environment, but all the hiring That you're doing and then just I guess related to that, what does that imply for capital return potential? Speaker 200:06:42Let me start on the accrual technicalities, Ken. I'll turn it over to Joe on some of the what went into the accrual. But So just how you think about this, I mean, this morning 44 people showed up at our office in the technology group. In fact, it was pretty let's call it up it was positive that everybody got to start As of today, I mean, and we were able to bring the whole team in and get them going. But I don't think they'll be immediately productive, But they will hit our payroll immediately. Speaker 200:07:20And the way to think about it and by the way, that's just that's 11 of the MDs of the 22. We also took Advantage of hiring some of the bankers out of Credit Suisse. We did some very significant health care hires at the beginning of the year, and that goes into the 20 2 MDs we're talking about and the juniors that support them. The way we're thinking about it, And I know it's hard to put this into a pro form a, but it's almost the equivalent of a pretty substantial acquisition in the technology sector, except that it all goes through your income statement. You put it on and you don't capitalize, you don't there's no upfront, but you end up covering the 1st few months of ramp up. Speaker 200:08:08And we're trying to estimate, Devin, you asked a very difficult question, I'll let Joe get to the is where does the revenue go? That's hard enough, by the way. Our comp ratio would be hard trying to figure out what the Fed and the banking environment is, where it is, what our revenues are going to be and then we have to overlay that, which is what are the increased expenses going to be from carrying Essentially 15% to 20% expansion of the headcount during this period. So Again, I'll let Joe talk to the specifics of the accrual. Yes. Speaker 200:08:43So Speaker 300:08:44to answer your first question, yes, we did make an accrual for bonus this quarter in order to kind of push it to the 80%, which we looked at, as being kind of the best estimate for the full year. 2, with respect to how we are thinking about the macro environment, we're thinking about it as being kind of relatively consistent with where we are right now. And basically we factored in all those new hires. So we factored in only what we know today into that, and one of the things that we don't know is where revenues are ultimately going to land, And we also don't know what the market for banking compensation is going to be, which will happen at the end of the year. But that's our best guess right now and that will obviously The adjusted when and if appropriate. Speaker 400:09:38Yes, got it. Okay, thanks. And so I guess the other part of that question is, it would seem just with all the elevated hiring and then the revenue backdrop that the company is under earning the dividend. So I guess just the question is, why continue to pay the dividend in the near term? To the extent that's true, maybe I'm off there, but just kind of thought process. Speaker 400:09:57And then the other part of what we're talking about is these additions, it's kind of under a unique circumstance. And so I'm assuming that they would probably ramp faster than normal, just given that some of them are joining probably with little interruption from where they're leaving. So Maybe that's kind of a follow-up, but there's 2 different parts to it. Speaker 200:10:19Yes. The answer to your second part is We weren't really sure of when everybody would be able to join and what all the complications might have been. We've gotten through that. And I think you're right. The fact that we've gotten to a, I would call it an agreed method for how we're going to cover existing clients, Service deals in progress, I do think it will be more rapid. Speaker 200:10:44And I will tell you that was happening on a real time basis. We put the announcement out this morning, So you can imagine when all of those details got done. So you're right about that. We do expect a more rapid than normal uptick, especially since we've avoided sort of a 90 day garden leave or any of those issues. On the dividend, look, we are debt free. Speaker 200:11:12We are sitting with excess capital. We think we've just added significant value. I think most companies, if they make an acquisition, don't cut their dividend. We are cash generative and we're very confident that we've just added significant value to the firm and very comfortable with the dividend. Speaker 400:11:32Got it. Okay. I will let others ask, but I appreciate you taking the questions. Operator00:11:40Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Ken Worthington of JPMorgan. Please proceed. Speaker 500:11:49Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. So you kind of fleshed out Big hiring MDs from Credit Suisse and elsewhere. You also mentioned that you wish you sort of built and hired more around COVID. So given all that you've done thus far and recently and quickly, what is the appetite for you to build even more here? Speaker 500:12:19And I'll go really out on a limb and say you've had Some failures or near failures of some pretty high profile banks, like is there the opportunity to maybe broaden talent from those businesses or even lift out some advisory businesses that they had, sort of further building out your business and operations, I'll just start there. What is the appetite and opportunity there? Speaker 200:12:52Okay. Just to reframe one thing, I was actually the last time we really moved this was the GFC. You mentioned COVID, but It was really in the global financial crisis where we expanded way faster than most people thought was possible because of the availability was unique Back then, not COVID. But let me start with one thing. I think if you went back and you listened to our conference calls, I must have said technology to the point of making everybody nauseous that we could use more. Speaker 200:13:22And technology was very hard to get enough throwaway, you can hire a person here or a person there, even that was a struggle. The biggest fee pool, I think, by far right now is software. And in this group, I'd say you define 7 or 8 of the people as touching on the software category and by doing it at once and in mass, you just have the throwaway to become important in the space. By the way, marry it up with the fact that we have an existing coverage platform. And again, I'll spend 2 seconds just to explain. Speaker 200:14:01Our coverage platform was doing very well, mostly on corporates and strategics. And it's interesting, the group that we Brought in is very much weighted towards sponsors. So we think the fit was almost perfect. So that was why we did. I mean, that's a large chunk, about half of the hiring that I've described to you. Speaker 200:14:27And let me say this, we would continue to be aggressive if something like that were to come. I mean that seemed to be a slow fast ball right down the middle for what we needed to move the firm into the next generation and really extend our growth. The same thing happened with a group of healthcare bankers that we took out. And Ken, to your question, if there is a space and I don't see it exactly, there is some one offs out there, but you're right, if it were something we needed that we felt like technology and software was so integral to the future growth of the company. Yes, we would continue to be aggressive. Speaker 200:15:11I think I said it on the last call is these types of teams don't come up often. They're very difficult to do in a good market. I would tell you in 2021, there would have been zero chance of doing this. And The negative is it only happens during tough times. It's tough to pull the trigger because somebody will ask me about the business soon And I'll say it's not great out there in M and A land, but that's the only time it becomes available. Speaker 500:15:44And then how do you think about taking losses? So the earnings were pretty close to breakeven. The outlook doesn't seem to be better. If it deteriorates, are you concerned about pushing into losses or reasonable sized losses to build the business for the longer term? Or is the focus so much on the longer term, losses for a couple of quarters or the year don't phase you and it's really about the long term. Speaker 200:16:19I don't want to lose money. And that's not a goal of ours. But the difference So and look, I think that the Q1, do I see it getting worse? I don't know. It's pretty bad. Speaker 200:16:33Q1 was pretty bad. I'm hoping that we have slight that it starts to get better from here. I'm not planning on losses. I don't want losses. But let me say the one thing about it. Speaker 200:16:45If I were we said it's somewhat like an acquisition, where To gather a group of people like this might cost several $100,000,000 Now that would not result in a loss. It would result in a capitalization of the cost. If the cost of doing this is to run $5,000,000 through your income statement, it feels bad. But that's cheaper than several $100,000,000 of acquiring it. I get it that doesn't go through your P and L, Well, the return on investment on what we just did is, I would say, significantly better Than anything we could have envisioned putting up the money in some type of M and A transaction, the negative is it will pressure the income statement in the short term. Speaker 500:17:40Okay. Thank you very much. Speaker 300:17:41Yes. And I Speaker 400:17:41would just add to that, Speaker 300:17:44that just remember that if we we're not expecting losses, If we were to have some modest losses, it's not cash flow. Cash flow is different than earnings in our business, and it's important to keep that in mind. Speaker 500:18:00Thank you. Operator00:18:05Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Matt Moon of KDW. Please proceed. Speaker 600:18:14Hi, good afternoon. Just one for me regarding the hiring, obviously, that was extremely strong and the result of some opportunistic activities, but I guess just looking at the outlook and kind of revenue pipelines across industry, just curious how long of a sustained downturn or to what magnitude would be needed to come about before you would consider addressing either the headcount or even at the minimum freeze hiring? And then in terms of recruiting packages, has there been at all a shift in terms of how these are structured in this type of environment, any color there would be great. Speaker 200:18:58So we are adjusting our headcount by the way. I think we have been much more active in also exiting Every year we're disciplined. I don't want to say we're disciplined now. Every year we probably eliminate between 2% 4% of our headcount on managed attrition. I think we're somewhere near double that, and we have been doing that aggressively. Speaker 200:19:23But the business is the people. The business is quality people motivated and also Structured against the economy, which technology and healthcare is where the economy is going and where we could have more throwaway was definitely a positive for the future of the company. Are we changing the packages? Yes, sure. Packages are different. Speaker 200:19:52They change all the time. And It will change with the economy and the market and how unique and singular the talent is you're looking for and how irreplaceable it might be. So we do, do that. But our I'll give you our pipeline, we think it's about down 20%, something like that. It's a pretty strong pipeline. Speaker 200:20:18But as I said on the last call, I think it remains a fragile pipeline, meaning that it's very hard To take your backlog to market to complete an M and A deal, financing is still very difficult, valuations are in fluctuation, you've heard all that. So this could go on, it'll definitely go on another quarter, and it could go on 6 months. But Again, having done this in the GFC and seeing that it basically created the firm, Having the talent and the organization and 2 years later, that was the asset and you withstood the temporary downturn. The asset we're building is a unique franchise in technology and in healthcare and in sponsors And in media, and I do think that asset, although not capitalized on a balance sheet, the people will be here for longer than most assets that are capitalized. We hope those people will be here for a very long time. Speaker 200:21:24And so we think the return is significant and will be to the shareholders benefit over a long period of time. Speaker 600:21:35Great. And then Joe, just one more of a cleanup type question. Just last quarter, you talked about a kind of 6 to 8 percentage point impact from retirement eligible share based comp. Just curious if that was kind of in the right Range of that impact in the Q1, or any more specifics you could provide on that actual impact that came out of the quarter? Yes. Speaker 300:22:01The 6% to 8% was kind of referencing kind of flat revenues with the Q4. So as you know, now We were a little lower than that, so it might have been a little so that ratio would have been probably a little higher when you kind of do the math. Speaker 400:22:22Okay, great. I'll hop back Speaker 600:22:23in the queue. Thanks, guys. Operator00:22:29Thank you. The next question comes from Steven Chubak of Wolfe Research. Please proceed. Speaker 700:22:37Good afternoon. This is Brendan O'Brien filling in for Stephen. So first, I just want to touch on the M and A environment. In the press release, Ken, you indicated that you felt the market was in a holding pattern at the moment. We've heard you and your peers talk about a few different conditions that are needed want to get a mark to market on these various factors at the moment relative to where they were last quarter. Speaker 700:23:08And what do you view as being a potential catalyst for M and A in the near to intermediate term. Speaker 200:23:17Probably the single most difficult Is financing right now just I think the recent bank Problems have caused credit spreads to widen. I think they'll continue to, by the way. I think that's a fundamental. You had the Fed. In order to do a transaction, there's a confidence level. Speaker 200:23:40And I think people feel like they're out in a minefield and You look left and you see a bank blow up and you don't know how many mines are out there. I just think it's one of those things too, which is confidence level that you can underwrite the risks and sort of have a nobody ever had certainty. I think there's always risks, the risks and The known unknowns and the unknown unknowns. But for right now, I think people are just waiting for just some stabilization that they can underwrite, even if you had to underwrite 5.5 Fed rate, a wider credit spread. I think people could get there, but you have all those issues moving and that may be It's just too easy to say why don't we wait for a little more information before going forward. Speaker 200:24:26Again, like we just did M and A And making these decisions involves making a long term bet. And I think having all factors moving, I'd like to 2 out of the 3 of those to stabilize. And so possibly the Fed stabilizes And maybe we get the bank market to stabilize. But I will say, I think the credit spreads are going to fundamentally be wider than they've ever been. And then you have the Fed as the benchmark rate, which is higher than Spence, I think those things are going to take their toll. Speaker 700:25:06That's great color. Thanks for that, Ken. And then I guess, not to beat a head dead horse, but pivoting to the comp ratio. In your prepared remarks, you mentioned that the comp ratio could remain elevated the next 18 to 12 or 12 to 18 months depending on the environment. Just as I understand that obviously, you mentioned that it's difficult to even set the comp ratio for this year in this type of environment. Speaker 700:25:31But as we think out into next year, just want to get a sense what level of revenue or revenue growth you would need to be able to see to work the comp ratio back below 60% on a full year basis? And also just want to clarify one of your earlier remarks. Were you indicating that the full year comp ratio will be 80% for this year? Speaker 300:25:54So to answer the last part of your question first, yes, that's our current best estimate based on what we're based on all the assumptions that we've talked about, kind of a consistent macro, these new hires And, but without the understanding of where banker comp is going to be at the end of the year and without knowing what Revenues where revenues will actually land. I think in terms of next year, we're just kind of providing some caution, we don't know when things will stabilize on the macro front. They could, to Ken's point, stabilize in the next 6 months, In which case, it would be a different answer and the 12 months would probably be more likely. But ultimately, the macro Sustains for a little longer. That's why we're saying that it could bleed into 2024 as well. Speaker 200:26:53Yes. Look, My guess is, especially since we were putting together our Q and some of this while we were still trying to figure out whether we would get team on the field today or in 90 days or each individual, especially on the tech team, what their Guardant leave requirements, non compete and all that was. It just so happens that everybody got to show up this morning and we have an agreement on how we can continue to service existing clients. That is a positive to the point of The hires causing the comp ratio to stay elevated longer than Just this year, I would say that's probably not what we're that's not going to I think that it's a this year phenomenon as to the hires and maybe we went 12 to 18 months just being conservative because Who knows how bad the market is for how long. But if I had to break it down, I'd say most of the compensation, given how quickly we've got them on the field, should be covered by the production of the hires By the Q1 of next year, then you tell me how the market is, how the M and A market is. Speaker 700:28:16Thanks. Thanks for taking my questions. Operator00:28:23Thank you. The next question comes from Brennan Hawken of UBS. Please proceed. Speaker 800:28:31Hi. Thanks for taking my question. This is Ben Rubin filling in for Brennan. Appreciate the aggressiveness on the recruitment front given the market environment. Just could you give us a rough sense of how the bankers and MDs that you've just brought on compare in terms of their productivity to your existing tech group? Speaker 800:28:51And also what type of trajectory should we expect in terms of their ramp up now that they're in the building? Thank you. Speaker 200:28:59So I think because these are selected, I would put them in the top quartile to By the way, I'm just talking about our full plethora of bankers. I think, not comparing it to the tech bankers we have, but you're probably trying to do what's the revenue per MD. I would say they're top they would fit in the top third, top quartile of where we've been, something like that on average, and that's on average across them. And I think the ramp up, which I was Again, concerned about the tie ups you have when you do this, trying to move people. I think it will be a lot quicker than I thought because we were able to reach agreement as to lots of things regarding that information, clients, etcetera, they're pretty aggressive group of people. Speaker 200:29:55In the context of the market, I think they'll be back up to their full run rate in 3 to 4 months and then but then of course the new deals they're bringing in have to close, so that delays a little bit. But they're here. All of them are on premise. All of them are working and they have I mean one of the very unique things about it is they even have access to existing information and client access, which a lot of times when you cross hire somebody, you have a lot of issues Speaker 800:30:32Great. Thank you for the color. And just to pivot a bit away from the recruiting, given that the restructuring environment seems to be improving each quarter, how are you thinking about the boost to revenue from restructuring this year or is it more of a 2024, 2025 event? And also what percentage of your advisory revenue did restructuring contribute this quarter? I know historically it's been around 20%, 25%, but how quickly could we see it rebound to those levels? Speaker 800:31:02Thank you. Speaker 200:31:04I think the best way to look at that is a lot of restructuring right now is also rescue financing. So our capital advisory, our capital markets plus restructuring was about 35% of revenue. You're right, restructuring was Probably right around the numbers you were talking about, if you really peel it off, but those things are starting to work hand in hand. And I do see an acceleration. Again, we talked about like a year ago when the Fed started raising, did we see restructuring? Speaker 200:31:37Well, I think I said back then, when you make 1 quarter of elevated interest payments, it's pretty easy. When you start to make a full year And then that full year is at the full Fed benchmark up where it is now. And lastly, I also think The ability to refinance, that is closing. It's getting tighter. People are getting more aware of how difficult that market is and Starting to call in for advice earlier. Speaker 200:32:07I think we're starting to see an inflection point where restructuring and liability management is inflecting upwards pretty rapidly and could continue that way if the market stays difficult. Speaker 500:32:22Great. Thank you Speaker 800:32:23for taking my questions. Operator00:32:28Thank you. The next question comes from the line of James Yaro of Goldman Sachs. Please proceed. Speaker 900:32:37Good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions. So maybe if we just turn to the non M and A non restructuring businesses, how are the large buckets within that part of the business performing in this weaker macro environment? And where would you expect those to improve as well? Speaker 600:32:57Well, the Speaker 200:32:57other big buckets we have Private Funds Advisory and Capital Markets. Capital Markets actually had a good Q1. And as I said, if you Assume restructuring was about 20%. That was and the combined 35%, it was about 15%. And the only reason I fudge on that is because Some of these bleed into each other. Speaker 200:33:18They start in one place and are solved in another place. And I do believe that Bespoke Capital is going to be the name of the game. There is nothing you can just put out into a sales force Plain vanilla, not well, not nothing. I shouldn't say absolutes. But there are very few IPOs, very few stock offerings. Speaker 200:33:41Investment grade debt market is still active, so that can get done. But anything below BB and even equity needed It's getting to be very structured, very bespoke and those calls are going into pension funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, the big private equity credit firms. And I actually think we're a better Access Point and a more creative and nimble Access Point for that than some of the large distributed universal banks. So I think that will go up with restructuring. I think you'll see that continue to climb. Speaker 900:34:19That makes a lot of sense. And if you just I'd love to hear your longer term perspective on what the stress on the banking industry means for the M and A business. And then within that, how do you think it affects different types of M and A, be it large cap M and A versus mid cap versus small cap M and A, if there are differences there? Speaker 200:34:42There's a lot in that question. So First, look, the distress and it just the access to capital is sort of lubricant for M and A and it is very difficult out there. Now, one of the areas that you asked me about the other buckets, I do think the market is going to be rife with activism, Because you have companies that are going to have difficulties and some of it will just be the market and their capitalization, it will give openings to people who want an opening in order to get their voice heard, they're looking for that opening. It's going to be hard to avoid those openings in a difficult market, and we have a very good activism group, too, that's very active. And I just want to say that was part of the buckets that are non M and A that are accelerating. Speaker 200:35:37The difference between large Cap and small, they both have their own problems by the way. Large cap has a regulatory DOJ problem in that you truly have to have courage to attempt one of those right now. Now, it's a non overlap. If it clearly works, I get it. But It's amazing the theories that have come up for the DOJ to get involved with large cap deals. Speaker 200:36:01And the exact opposite, the small cap deals But their financing is most often non investment grade and bank or sulfur related financing And that is just very expensive to go after. So I think both Parts of the market are having their own issues at the same time. Speaker 900:36:26Okay. That's very helpful. Thanks so much, Ken. Operator00:36:33Thank you. The next question comes from Ryan Kenny of Morgan Stanley. Please proceed. Speaker 800:36:41Hey, good afternoon. Speaker 200:36:43Good afternoon. Speaker 800:36:46Can you update us on what you're seeing in terms of M and A appetite among sponsors versus strategics? And on the sponsor side, understand that every deal and firm is nuanced, but in aggregate, how long can this group sit on the sidelines before they have to deploy capital? Speaker 200:37:03Well, I do think the sponsor community is on the sidelines. I think they would prefer not to make They'd almost prefer not to make a decision. And look, if there's a, again, a fat pitch, they're going to go for it. But on the margin, I think they would like to be able to model better than they have and they would like slightly better capital than they So the whole thing is just not optimal for them to move. Now you remember, it's a big world. Speaker 200:37:29I'm not talking about every deal, But on the margin, that is where it is. But they continue to have capital. They continue to raise capital. They continue to want to be innovative around that capital and we will see it. There is a lot of pent up demand to either exit successful companies that were invested in 3 to 5 years ago and then to put new capital work. Speaker 200:37:55It is that is the business they're in. They're not in the business of sitting on their hands. So they will move. And that's why I think they will move well before the markets move. I think like in COVID, I remember our June call of 2020. Speaker 200:38:21I think we did it in August and we were seeing the sponsors realized that the Fed will have their back for whatever reason that COVID was going to be taken care of, that earnings were going to be okay, and they were extremely active. And that was well before remember the sponsors are actually trying to take advantage of anomalies in the market. So they're not the last to move. They will be the first to move out of this and try to figure out where they can create value for their investors or asking them to figure this out. So I do think that M and A was the first into the tank in this market because the Sponsor Group was the first to realize that the Fed was serious and it was going to get ugly and they started to pull Their deals in last February, March, April. Speaker 200:39:10I think they'll be the 1st to reach out and put capital out into a market they think will be will award them. Remember, they don't have to mark to market quarterly well, they do have to sorry, they do have to mark to market quarterly, but they are in it for long term investment gains. So they can put money up on the basis of a 3 to 5 year business plan. I think they'll be the first move. And then strategics are still very active. Speaker 200:39:37Our conversations in the strategic corporate market are very active. And it's just a matter of I think it's for them, it's just a matter of stabilize on pricing And also getting a good read on the DOJ. That's been an issue. Operator00:39:55Thank you. Thank you. There are currently no additional questions registered at this time. So I will pass the conference back over to the management team for any closing remarks. Speaker 200:40:10Thank you. I know our earnings release this time was probably more complicated than most given what we've Happened in the last 24 hours and a significant hiring. Feel free to call Joe or myself if anybody has any follow-up questions. Thank you. Operator00:40:26And with that, we will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect yourRead morePowered by