W. P. Carey Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 28, 2023

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello, and welcome to W. P. Carey's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Kevin, and I'll be your operator today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

Operator

Please note that today's event is being recorded. After today's prepared remarks, We will be taking questions via the phone line. Instructions on how to do so will be given at the appropriate time. I will now turn the program over to Peter Sands, Head of Investor Relations. Mr.

Operator

Sands, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning for our 2023 2nd Quarter Earnings Call. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that some of the statements made on this call are not historic facts and may be deemed forward looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from W. P.

Speaker 1

Carey's expectations are provided in our SEC filings. An online replay of this conference call will be made available in the Investor Relations section of our website at wpkerry.com, where it will be archived for approximately 1 year and where you can also find copies of our investor presentations and other related materials. And with that, I'll pass the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Jason Fox.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Peter, and good morning, everyone. We made good progress during the Q2, closing a significant volume of accretive new investments In an environment that remains constructive for sale leasebacks, enabling us to apply upward pressure on cap rates. Our contractual same store rent growth also remains among the best The net lease sector. And even though inflation is cooling, we expect to continue leading the peer group on rent growth, driven by the lagged impact of CPI and rents as well as the strength of our fixed rent increases. This morning, I'll briefly recap our recent investment activity And talk a little about how we're uniquely positioned within the net lease sector through both our competitive position and the various sources of capital available to us, giving us confidence in our ability to continue investing in the second half of the year and manage our near term debt maturities even if capital markets are constrained.

Speaker 2

I'm joined this morning by our CFO, Tony Sanzone, who will review our Q2 results, expectations for the full year and balance sheet positioning. John Park, our President and Brooks Gordon, our Head of Asset Management are also on the call and available to take questions. Transaction market conditions during the Q2 were generally a continuation of those we saw earlier in the year. In Europe, there continues to be a slowdown in investment activity given the steep rise in interest rates in that region over the last 12 months, resulting in wide bid ask spreads. Although cap rates have lagged in Europe, we continue to find pockets of opportunity, which we expect to play out over the next 6 to 12 months As sellers adjust to the higher cap rate demands of buyers, and we're well positioned to capitalize on them, given our strong competitive position in that market and the capital we have to deploy.

Speaker 2

In contrast, cap rates remain more attractive in North America, which accounts for the large majority of our investment volume year to date, including the $468,000,000 industrial sale leaseback with Apotex we announced in April and I discussed on our last earnings call. As I said then, it serves as a good example of the attractive opportunities available to us by partnering with private equity sponsors Using sale leasebacks as part of the capital stack in corporate acquisitions, as well as the competitive advantage we have by being able to fund transactions, including large ones entirely with our own balance sheet. Apotex now ranks as our 3rd largest tenant and further Our overall allocation to warehouse and industrial. Another notable second quarter transaction was the $98,000,000 sale leaseback we completed ABC Technologies, a leading supplier to the global auto industry. We're a portfolio of 9 industrial properties in North America.

Speaker 2

ABC is an existing tenant and the transaction enabled us to also extend the lease term on an existing portfolio. With our most recent investment in ADDC, it also moves into our top 10 tenants. Follow in transactions either with existing tenants or with Private equity sponsors we've worked with before are an important source of captive deal flow. The current environment has allowed us to expand our sponsor relationships as Private equity firms increasingly explore alternative sources of capital, including sale leasebacks. Majority of our investment volume year to date came from new sponsor relationships, driven largely by Apotex.

Speaker 2

We completed investments totaling $761,000,000 during the 2nd quarter, Bringing our investment volume for the first half of the year, dollars 939,000,000

Speaker 3

at a

Speaker 2

weighted average cap rate of 7.3%, Market have been slow to move such as commodity retail, we've been able to transact at more attractive cap rates, especially on warehouse and industrial sale leasebacks, represent the large majority of our investment volume during the first half of the year. And while net lease transaction markets have generally slowed over the last 12 months, Large corporate sellers with the use of proceeds continue to actively explore sale leasebacks due to a lack of attractive funding alternatives, Given the tighter bank credit environment and more expensive corporate lending market, we've also seen fewer credible buyers chasing deals. This dynamic coupled with the significant capital we have available to invest continues to strengthen our competitive position and ability to push cap rates higher. We are also willing to forego deals with insufficient spread, some of which we are seeing come back to the market with better terms. Today, We're focused on deals with going in cash cap rates in the 7s, which translates to unlevered IRRs in the 8s and into the 9s, Taking into account the rent growth we're able to achieve over long term leases.

Speaker 2

In our new deals, we're achieving higher rent growth than we have historically. For example, Deals with fixed rent bumps completed in the first half of twenty twenty three had rent increases averaging just under 3% compared to historical averages around 2%. We therefore continue to generate a comfortable spread to our cost of capital and have a positive outlook on our ability to win deals and deploy capital accretively over the second half of the year. Moving now to capital raising. In recent years, we've demonstrated our ability to raise well priced capital from diverse sources.

Speaker 2

The flexibility of our balance sheet is an important strength, particularly in an environment where capital markets can change quickly. As we look ahead to our capital needs over second half of twenty twenty three and into 2024, we feel very positive about how we're positioned. We still have approximately $385,000,000 unsettled forward equity raised at an average price over $83 per share. That equity along with proceeds from planned asset sales provides us with the capital required The remaining investment volume contemplated by our guidance, while maintaining conservative leverage. Our $1,800,000,000 revolving credit facility provides us with significant liquidity and in combination with our 2 term loans represents a significant portion of the total debt we have maturing over the next two and a half years, Round 1 third.

Speaker 2

Given the strong support we have from our bank group, we fully expect to extend the maturity on our credit facility through a standard recast towards the end of this year. And because it is floating rate, recent interest rate increases are already flowing through our interest expense on that portion of our maturing debt. Our recent upgrades to BBB plus and Baa1 enhance our credit profile. And although debt markets remain unsettled, We believe we'll continue to find windows of opportunity to issue new bonds both in the U. S.

Speaker 2

And Europe where we maintain a strong market presence as a highly rated REIT. Finally, it's important to note that we have several other internal sources of capital that help mitigate our capital needs, especially useful given the current uncertainty in the capital markets And depending on how capital market conditions evolve, it has the potential to be a meaningful competitive advantage over the next few years. As we previously discussed, we have the proceeds from the U Haul portfolio, which we currently estimate to be around $465,000,000 Coming back in the Q1 of next year, given the exercise of the repurchase option on those properties. We also continue to explore various options for our substantial portfolio of operating self storage assets, including as a source of capital through asset sales. Operating self storage properties are among the more liquid real estate assets.

Speaker 2

And in the current market, we believe our portfolio has a value approaching $1,500,000,000 We also continue to hold a large investment in Lineage Logistics, Currently on our balance sheet at a fair value of around $400,000,000 which is presently not paying a dividend. This is a non core holding that we expect So, sometime after Lineage becomes a public company, allowing us to reinvest the proceeds highly accretively. While we do not have any visibility into timing, it Giving us confidence that we're well positioned to continue making investments and managing our upcoming debt maturities even if traditional sources of capital are constrained. And with that, I'll pass the call over to Toni.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Jason, and good morning, everyone. For the 2023 Q2, we generated total AFFO of $1.36 per diluted share, up 3.8% over the 1st quarter, primarily reflecting the accretive impact of recent investments and the continued strength of our rent growth, partly offset by higher interest expense. The 2nd quarter also included certain non recurring items within non reimbursable property expenses and income taxes that largely offset one another, which I'll come back to shortly. As Jason discussed, with cap rates remaining well above 2022 levels, We continue to find accretive investments that brought investment volume over the first half of the year to $939,000,000 We also continue to benefit from the strength of the rent escalations built into our portfolio with contractual same store rent growth Remaining at a peak level of 4.3% year over year, 130 basis points above where it was a year ago. For leases with uncapped CPI rent escalations, contractual same store rent growth was 7.5% for the 2nd quarter, reflecting the lagged impact of CPI on rents and embedded tailwind to our growth.

Speaker 4

We also expect our fixed Rent increases to continue to trend upward, given the higher fixed escalations we've been achieving on new leases, helping sustain elevated same store rent growth as inflation declines. As a result, we expect our internal growth to remain strong in the second half of the year With contractual same store rent growth averaging around 4% and to average around 3% in 2024 based on current inflation forecasts. Comprehensive same store rent growth for the 2nd quarter, which is based on the net lease rent included in our AFFO, was 3.9% year over year and includes the benefit of certain rent recoveries in the current period. Over the long term, we continue to expect our comprehensive same Strong same store growth, we also recaptured close to 100 percent of prior rents through our re leasing activity for the quarter on about 1.5% of ABR, which on average extended lease term about 6 years. Also, the investments we completed during the first half of the year had a weighted average lease term of 22 years, which in conjunction with the positive outcomes on our 2nd quarter re leasing activity extended the overall weighted average lease term of our portfolio to 11.2 years.

Speaker 4

Other lease related income for the Q2 totaled $5,000,000 bringing this line item to $18,400,000 year to date. We continue to expect other lease related income for the full year to remain in line with 2022. Disposition activity during the Q2 was minimal, comprising 3 properties for gross proceeds of $5,500,000 bringing total dispositions over the first half of the year to $48,000,000 For the full year, our guidance continues to assume total dispositions between $300,000,000 $400,000,000 including the sale of 9 of the 12 Marriott operating hotels we currently own, Which represent about 2 thirds of the annualized NOI generated by our operating hotel portfolio. The Marriott Sales are progressing well with the majority of the properties currently under purchase and sale agreements. We currently expect NOI from all operating properties to Total approximately $90,000,000 to $95,000,000 for 2023, primarily reflecting the timing of the Marriott sales, But also the impact of slightly slower growth within operating self storage as that industry comes off its recent peak.

Speaker 4

Turning to expenses. Interest expense totaled $75,500,000 for the 2nd quarter, with the increase over the first Our weighted average interest rate was 3.3% at the end of the second quarter, which is broadly in line with the 1st quarter, But up from 2.6% for the year ago quarter. Non reimbursed property expenses for the Q2 were $5,400,000 Driven lower by a reversal of property tax accruals totaling $6,300,000 These are property tax that we had previously been accruing due to a tenant's non payment over the past few years. The tenant fully repaid those taxes directly, allowing us to reverse our accruals during As a result, we expect this line item to return to a more normalized run rate of around $12,000,000 per quarter for the remainder of 2023. G and A expense totaled $25,000,000 for the 2nd quarter, about $2,000,000 lower than the 1st quarter, which typically trends higher given the timing of certain payroll related items.

Speaker 4

For the full year, we continue to expect G and A to total between $97,000,000 $100,000,000 Tax expense on an AFFO basis totaled $12,800,000 for the 2nd quarter, which included $3,300,000 incremental expense associated with the tax audit in Europe. For the remainder of the year, we expect the quarterly run rate to be closer to $11,000,000 Turning briefly to guidance. We've narrowed our full year AFFO guidance range by $0.04 Between $5.32 $5.38 per share with the midpoint unchanged, which implies close to 3% year over year growth on real estate AFFO per share despite the headwind from rising interest rates. Our guidance continues to assume investment volume totaling between 1.75 And $2,250,000,000 for the year. And as I discussed earlier, dispositions totaling between $300,000,000 $400,000,000 Moving now to our Capital Markets activity and balance sheet positioning.

Speaker 4

As discussed in our last earnings call, We closed on a new 3 year €500,000,000 unsecured term loan in April and concurrently executed an interest rate swap We've fixed the interest rate at 4.3% through the end of 2024, with proceeds primarily used to pay down our revolving credit facility. We did not raise or settle any equity forwards during the Q2, so continue to have about $385,000,000 of forward equity available to settle. Turning to our key leverage and liquidity metrics at the end of the second quarter. Debt to gross assets was 41.3% And net debt to EBITDA was 5.7 times, remaining well within our target leverage ranges of low to mid-40s on debt to gross assets And mid to high 5 times on net debt to EBITDA. This does not reflect the pro form a impact of settling undrawn equity forward, which would further reduce net debt to EBITDA to 5.4x.

Speaker 4

We ended the 2nd quarter about $530,000,000 on our $1,800,000,000 revolving credit facility, maintaining a strong liquidity position totaling approximately $1,900,000,000 Through the combination of unused capacity on our credit facility, unsettled equity forwards and anticipated disposition proceeds in the second half of the year, We're positioned to fund the remaining investment volumes embedded in our 2023 guidance on a leverage neutral basis without the need to raise additional capital this year. We can therefore be opportunistic when we access the capital markets. As Jason discussed, we remain very comfortable with our near term debt maturities given our liquidity position, access to capital and the flexibility provided by the significant internal capital sources available to us over the next few years. In closing, we're pleased with the strong progress we made in the first half of the year towards the investment volume embedded in our guidance And expect continued momentum in the second half given the competitiveness of sale leasebacks and the investment spreads we're achieving. We also expect our same store growth to continue to lead the net lease peer group.

Speaker 4

And given the various forms of capital available to us, including from internal sources, We're confident in our ability to fund our investments and the other capital needs over the remainder of this year and into 2024. And with that, I'll hand the call back to the operator for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. One moment please while we poll for questions. Our first question today is coming from Greg McGinniss from Scotiabank. Your line is now live.

Speaker 5

Hi, thank you. This is Elmer Chang on with Greg. Thanks for the time. You've historically acquired assets in the $10,000,000 to $20,000,000 range. With With sale leaseback increasing, they're becoming more attractive financing solution for operators in the last few quarters due to increased cost of Lack of capital availability, how has competition in the sale leaseback market trended perhaps quarter to date?

Speaker 5

I think you touched upon in your remarks a little bit. And how does that compare across the North American geographies? Also, what have conversations been like with existing versus new clients given you acquired Year to day with mostly new clients.

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. So good questions in there. In terms of how has the sale leaseback market changed this year, I mean, it's been pretty stable for the year. This is especially in the U. S.

Speaker 2

I think, We think about larger transactions that you mentioned, that we've seen larger transactions, I would say, this year and maybe beginning at the end of last year, a little more so historically. I think historically we've probably still targeted deal sizes that are in the $50,000,000 range plus or minus. I think we're probably a little bit above that Year to date, even excluding the Apotex deal, maybe around $75,000,000 And, look, I think the themes are still the same. The competition has thinned out for us. I think that Many of the private equity real estate peers that we've competed with previously, they rely on mortgage financing and that's become More expensive and less available and certainly the themes that are driving sale leasebacks, which is especially in the sub investment grade space, private equity sponsors, It's the cost of alternative sources of capital, high yield bonds or leverage loans are still much more expensive than where we're targeting our pricing on sale leasebacks.

Speaker 2

And that's across North America. I mean, as you brought up North America, I mean, we've always really kind of thought of this It's one market. Pretty much all the deals that we do in North America are dollar denominated, and I think are maybe more driven by What's happening in the U. S. Market.

Speaker 2

So I think there's some consistency there, and it's still quite constructive and maybe about as strong as we've seen in the sale leaseback market in a long time. I wonder if I missed any other questions in there.

Speaker 5

Got it. No, that was very helpful. Thanks. Thanks for the color there. And maybe just switching gears to office, since you sold a bunch of properties in Q1, but didn't sell any assets this quarter and haven't really acquired Can you just remind us on your general views of that portfolio and how you think about Maybe expirations that are coming due soon.

Speaker 5

I know weight, waltz on the portfolio are A little bit less than portfolio average. But yes, just any thoughts there would be helpful.

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, I think broadly, as you mentioned, we have not been buying any office Anytime recently probably over the past 5 years, and our office exposure has come down significantly from over 30% 5 years ago to is now about 16%, excuse me. And that decline has occurred because we have not been acquiring any. We have, Over that period kind of sold more office as a percentage of our total sales and really we've been over allocating new capital into industrial and warehouse And maybe retail to a lesser extent. So the strategy around office, I would say is consistent there.

Speaker 2

I think ultimately we do to move our exposure to 0, but there's really no kind of specific timeframe we're looking at that. I don't know Brooks, if you have anything to add on specific expirations

Speaker 6

No, nothing specific. I mean, it's pretty well staggered and really pretty late in the decade and beyond, it's any given year, but we don't have kind of a constant lease roll or running major bumps there. So it's manageable and we're quite focused on those office expirations for sure.

Speaker 5

Fair enough. Thanks for the time.

Operator

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Joshua Dennerlein from Bank of America, your line is now live. Yes. Thanks guys. Appreciate the time.

Operator

Just I know there was some color on the opening remarks, but just maybe if

Speaker 7

we can get into a little bit more detail on how we should expect Brent bumps to kind of evolve over the with just how inflation has been trending, just kind of thinking about the lag. I think we've talked about in the past,

Speaker 2

Yes. Toni, do you want to touch on that?

Speaker 4

Yes. I got that. Just in terms of what we've seen to date, I think we reported 4.3% contractual same store in the 1st 2 quarters of this year, that's our peak level. We do see that lag continuing to play out and will Sort of stay in the 4% range over the back half of this year with that declining into kind of the 3% average for all of 2024. So Still seeing some, again, higher than typical growth resulting from the CPI playing through and also from Just being able to get higher fixed rent increases in the more recent deals that we're doing, that's sort of helping sustain that on a longer term basis.

Speaker 4

4% towards the back half of this year, 3% into next year and again maybe some upward movement from what we've seen

Speaker 2

Yes. And Josh, that assumes current forecast. So clearly, if things change, if We just had some rosy GDP numbers come out the other day. So to the extent inflation Reverses course a little bit higher again then those numbers could change as well. But regardless, I think still Very attractive same store relative to the peer set in that lease.

Operator

Okay. I appreciate that. Then maybe just a follow-up on the office Do you guys have any like sublease activity in your portfolio? Or is

Speaker 7

it all pretty much the direct tenants,

Speaker 6

Brooks? It's a mixed bag. It's primarily the direct tenants, but we don't property manage those specifically. The master tenant is really our relationship. But there's some subleasing here and there, and that's pretty normal course.

Speaker 6

That's kind of always been the case. So that's not particularly new, but something we certainly are watching.

Speaker 7

Okay. And by watching, has it increased? Or is that why you're watching it? Or just kind of a standard course of business?

Speaker 6

Certainly, I was just trying to monitor what our tenants I haven't seen a really material increase in sublease activity. As with all companies, utilization is a mixed bag My company, and that in and of itself is a bit of a moving target, and we've seen some positive trends there. Subleasing is certainly a part of owning any single tenant asset and is part of our office portfolio.

Operator

Got it. Thanks guys.

Speaker 6

Welcome.

Operator

Thank you. Next question today is coming from

Speaker 8

Being more favorable right now, I'm just curious, has anything started to change thus far in 3Q as it relates to the landscape in Europe? And If not, like what do you think kind of needs to change in order for you guys to see more interesting or like opportunistic activity abroad?

Speaker 2

Yes, I mean we're starting to see changes over there. When you think about Europe, the rate increases were the magnitude of the rate increases were more significant there. So sellers are really still adjusting to that sharp rate increase. We are seeing a pickup in opportunities. I think there is Still bid ask spreads that are maybe wider than we think they should be in order to get transactions done.

Speaker 2

But I think the activity is increasing and that's look, that's kind of how it felt like in the U. S. Maybe going into Q4 last year where there was more Sellers engaged even though we weren't quite finding meeting of the minds on pricing, but that process has started in Europe. I think Sellers, especially those with use of proceeds in mind and these are going to be sale leasebacks, at some point become price takers because their alternative sources of capital Maybe not as attractive as say leasebacks. So I think it gives us some optimism that second half of the year there could be Some more meaningful activity in Europe.

Speaker 8

Okay. And I'm sure there's a range where you're able to quantify kind of like the bid ask spread that you guys are still seeing in Europe?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, it is a range. I would say it's, call it, 25 basis points to 50 basis points. I mean, we're never Perfect to the basis point on how we price deals, but it just seems like there's a and not a lot of transactions are happening. So We don't have a full sense for where sellers are.

Speaker 2

What we do know is that there's not an acceptance of where we're bidding on things. So it feels like It's tightened and it's maybe in that range.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thanks. And then last one, just in order to hit the high end of I'm just curious, do you guys would you need to see more opportunities out of Europe or like you think you could hit the high end given what you're seeing in the U. S? I You've been a little bit more selective as it comes to like the U.

Speaker 8

S. Retail industries. I know you've been targeting more of the industrial. So Just curious, if you'd be able to hit the high end without much of Europe?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, look, Europe would certainly be helpful. We have seen larger deals, as I mentioned A few minutes ago, in the U. S, I think to the extent we can see larger deals or more of them like Apotex that obviously is going to have A big impact on where we finished within the guidance range. So it's possible, but it's more helpful with Europe in play.

Speaker 2

Clearly, we don't have visibility into Q4 transactions at this point. It does tend to be one of our most, if not our most active quarter in most years. So I think that gives us maybe reason to be optimistic, but there's a lot of volatility out there and it's hard to predict. So I think the range is appropriate at this point.

Speaker 4

Thank you for the color.

Speaker 6

Yes, you're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today is coming from John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now live.

Speaker 3

Thank you. I guess the first question is on guidance. If you look at what you have For the year, at the midpoint, it suggests $1.34 run rate on AFFO, which is essentially flat from what you had in the first half of the year. Given the investment activity you've had and the yields you've been able to achieve as well as the pipeline, I'm surprised it hasn't gone up and just wanted your thoughts on that.

Speaker 2

Tony, you want to talk

Speaker 4

about that? Yes. I think if you there's a few things happening that I think are worth kind of recapping and some of those I mentioned in my remarks. If you look at Kind of the Q2, where we came out versus the rest of the year, the material drivers in bringing the 2nd quarter higher that we don't expect would recur in the back Half of the year are the property tax accrual reversal that I mentioned around $6,000,000 and we have some Additional rent recoveries this quarter as well, bringing up our comprehensive same store. So if you offset that by the income tax The incremental expense I mentioned is about $3,000,000 You kind of have to normalize that out of the run rate for the back half of the year and then really taking into account Higher interest expense as well as the back half weighting of our dispositions, those are really the material movers that get you to the midpoint of our guidance range.

Speaker 3

On the subject of the comprehensive same store, you mentioned that it's 100 basis points Hello contractual long term and then contractual next year will be about 3%. But I always thought that this Difference between comprehensive and contractual was more of a lag or timing issue rather than a complete permanent drag. Can you just elaborate on why that's going to be consistently lower than contractual?

Speaker 4

Sure. Yes, I think there's a handful of items that run through comprehensive. Remember that's kind of what runs through AFFO as opposed to our contractual same store, which is ABR for a So some of that is timing as you referenced, but vacancy certainly play a role in that delta. And I think you've really made up Probably the majority of the delta between contractual and comprehensive kind of in recent history as well as Any it goes both ways, additional rent recoveries or disruption in rent collections sort of make up the bulk of that difference. But I would say vacancy is probably the material delta there.

Speaker 3

Okay. And Jason, I just wanted to Understand your commentary on the storage operating portfolio. You did buy a small operating portfolio this quarter. But I was wondering if you talked about it as a potential use of funds. I know you said that in the past Sorry, potential source of funds.

Speaker 3

You said that

Speaker 5

in the past, but are

Speaker 3

you more inclined to sell the operating portfolio today than you were in the past few quarters?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, I think we've always looked at all the options that we have and we've talked about those certainly selling them as one option and we don't have to do all one option. We could sell some, we can convert some and maybe there's reason to continue to hold some as operating assets for future sales or conversions. But we are taking a closer look at it right now. I think that we're certainly mindful in the current environment.

Speaker 2

It's good to be liquid. I think Storage is one of the more liquid asset classes out there and so we want to be prepared if that's a good way to fund deals better than maybe raising equity or Forms that's on the table. So, we're looking at it. I think it's too early to share anything specific. We may not sell anything at all, but I think it's probably a little bit more something that we're evaluating closer at this point than quarter or 2 back.

Speaker 3

Okay, great. Thank you. Yes, welcome.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Brad Heffern from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now live.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning everyone. There were some decent sized moves in the portfolio stats this quarter that I thought were a little difficult to explain just given there were basically no And so I'm thinking of office exposure down 110 basis points, IG exposure was down 170 And then CPI exposure is down 310. Can you just maybe it's all the same thing, but can you talk through what's driving those moves?

Speaker 2

Yes, I mean, I think high level, the allocation to industrial is going to dilute down those other categories Industrial non investment grade, but Brooks, I don't know if you have any other color you want to mention there. I think we did have a vacancy as well.

Speaker 6

Yes. I mean the biggest driver of pretty much all of those is acquiring all non office, all of which was sub investment grade. So it's really the denominator effect. We have one office non renewal. We're working The sale for that asset, so that's contributing to it as well.

Speaker 6

But the biggest piece of that is really denominator effects, primarily the Apotex investment we discussed.

Speaker 9

Okay, got it. And then can you give the collections percentage for the And also just walk through the watch list and any changes there.

Speaker 2

Toni, do you have collections?

Speaker 4

Yes. I think on collections, we continue to track around and above 99%. With these take into account recoveries from prior quarters, we're probably closer to

Speaker 6

Yes. On the watch list front, very stable. Watch list is around 2% of ABR. And again for context, The kind of COVID era peak was around 4%. It's actually down slightly from the prior quarter.

Speaker 6

We had one tenant, Which we upgraded, they were able to restructure their balance sheet, had no impact on our lease, so good outcome there. So the watch list is very much stable from

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Anthony Paolone from JPMorgan. Your line is now live.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you. I guess, first one, just on 2nd quarter deal activity. Can you give us a number for the cap rate on that? I think we had like Apotex, but just How did it all shake out?

Speaker 2

Yes, I mean the year to date cap rate is 7.3%. I think for the quarter we're probably in and around that number maybe slightly Below that, I mean, a lot of that's driven by the size of the Apotex deal. So we're still kind of range bound in the we're targeting deals in the 7s, and I think that's where we're coming out.

Speaker 10

Okay. Got it. And then just start to look ahead, I know we take out U Haul from the expirations in 'twenty four, but Just any known move outs in the remaining 3.5 points of revenue next year that we should be thinking about?

Speaker 2

Brooks, you want to take that?

Speaker 6

Sure. So as you mentioned, lease expirations coming up are pretty light through 2025, it's about 12 So then when you back off U Haul, it's maybe 9%, really not a whole lot remaining to go this year. We do have one warehouse property in the Chicago area, high quality building, where the tenant is relocating. So we'll seek to release that. In 2024, we have about 6% of ABR, again, a lot of that is U Haul.

Speaker 6

Most of the balance is warehouse and industrial, not a whole lot notable there. And I mentioned we had one recent Move out, which we're working through on a sale right now.

Speaker 10

Okay. And then on the, I guess warehouse and industrial component of the portfolio, I mean that's where the bulk of your leasing was in 2Q and is pretty flattish renewal spreads. Like is there a mark to market that's positive across the portfolio overall or is that representative? I mean, how would you characterize that?

Speaker 6

The bulk of what happened in this quarter was actually the ABC transaction that Jason mentioned. We were able to extend our existing portfolio back out So that's really the bulk of the action in the industrial segment there, one tiny little warehouse Properties are really not indicative. Broadly speaking, I think in our warehouse properties, there is a mark to market opportunity. We don't have a constant lease roll. We have long wall, that's not a bigger driver for us really.

Speaker 6

The organic growth is a bigger driver. But again, the industrial tends to exhibit very, very high criticality. So really good renewal probabilities there. So it's a blend, but I wouldn't really extract anything from a specific quarter per se. ABC was really the big story in Industrial.

Speaker 10

Okay, got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Eric Wolf from Citi. Your line is now live. Hey, good morning. Thanks.

Operator

Just to follow-up on the self storage question. I think

Speaker 11

you said in your remarks that portfolios are $1,500,000,000 in value. Just curious sort of what cap rate you're using for that assumption? And if you were to market the portfolio, do you think you get better pricing as a portfolio or just sort of breaking it up into individual properties or regions?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mentioned that it was approaching $1,500,000,000 So it's probably not $1,500,000,000 but it's probably somewhere between $1,000,000,000 $1,500,000,000 maybe closer to the top end of that range. I think it depends on obviously the specific components and how we Consider selling it. I think if we were to sell, I think there are lots of options. I mean we've seen some big trades obviously out there for portfolios.

Speaker 2

I think if we can do sub portfolios that would be meaningfully smaller, probably wouldn't make a lot of sense to do one offs. So it's probably something in between, Again, if that's something that we consider to pursue, it's still a little early to really give many specifics on what we may do with the portfolio.

Operator

Understood. And if I wanted

Speaker 11

to back into valuation, I mean, is there any can

Operator

I just basically take the numbers that you put In terms

Speaker 11

of pro rata rental income in there, I mean is that representative of the sort of income stream that would be getting capped or Because you have some of these sort of like triple net lease and other things that would be adjustments that AEP made? Yes.

Speaker 2

I mean, look, I think that we would expect it To price somewhere in the 5s on a cap rate basis. Tony, I don't know if our numbers are clean yet because we it's not a full year and there certainly is some Seasonality to storage, but

Speaker 3

I don't know if you

Speaker 2

have a comment on the numbers that we disclose.

Speaker 4

Yes. I think if you look at the NOI run rate and kind of what we've given in relation guidance and our update there. We're probably in and around the $70,000,000 range for self storage NOI on a full year basis based on this year.

Operator

Got it. That's helpful. And then on Lineage,

Speaker 11

you mentioned that it would be a good source of funds when they IPO.

Operator

I guess is there sort of

Speaker 11

a private market there? Are there other ways that you could sort of monetize it if you wanted to? Or do you just think Waiting for them to go through the IPO process is probably the best way to maximize the amount of proceeds that you get.

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, there Probably is a private process that we could undertake if that was something that we really needed to do. We don't need to do it. We're in a very good position from a capital standpoint. But we do like to point it out that it's out there, it's a source of really cheap capital, it's not paying a dividend right now.

Speaker 2

So when we do have the chance to liquidate it and we'll probably want to do it in the most efficient way, which would be part of an IPO with that company. I Not a lot of visibility on timing. I would imagine it's over the next couple of years, if not sooner, but it's something that we do want to point out

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Jim Kammert from Evercore. Your line is now live.

Speaker 12

Hi, good morning. Thank you. Tony, hate to do this to you, but your comments were very constructive on the organic growth on the same property ABR. Could you tell us what would it look like just on a purely contractual basis for the portfolio or ballpark that? So you take CPI out etcetera, What would that be for the portfolio?

Speaker 4

Sorry, do you take CPI out?

Speaker 12

Yes, I'm sorry. So say you have uncapped CPI rent adjustments, so presume some of those leases have a minimum growth rate if inflation were less than The fixed bump for example or I'm trying to triangulate what would the portfolio growth look like say in like a 2% inflationary market, what's really the contractual

Speaker 3

Yes,

Speaker 4

I think our historical same store growth has kind of been in the 1.5% to 2% range before inflation started Pickup kind of and reaches peak. So as I said, the fixed increases are starting to increase as well. So that's playing a part in that. And Maybe that would bring it to the top end of that range, but I think that's all looking more historically as opposed to what we would see going forward. It's certainly dependent now on Where inflation stabilizes, both in Europe and the U.

Speaker 4

S, and right now, we're seeing that happen The projections are looking like in the low 2% range in the U. S. And in the mid-two percent range in Europe. So that's really how we're thinking about kind of the growth going forward.

Speaker 12

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We've reached the end of our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Peter for any further or closing comments.

Speaker 1

Great. Thanks, Kevin. And thanks, everybody, for your interest in W. P. Carey.

Speaker 1

If anyone has additional questions, please call Investor Relations directly on 212-492-eleven 10. And that concludes today's call. You may now disconnect. Thank you.

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Key Takeaways

  • In Q2, W. P. Carey deployed $761 million (totaling $939 million in H1) at a weighted average cap rate of 7.3%, led by industrial sale-leasebacks including a $468 million Apotex portfolio and a $98 million ABC Technologies transaction.
  • Contractual same-store rent growth remained at a peak 4.3% YoY (7.5% on uncapped CPI leases) with fixed rent bumps averaging ~3%, and the company expects same-store growth to average ~4% in H2 2023 and ~3% in 2024.
  • Liquidity stands at approximately $1.9 billion—including $530 million drawn on its $1.8 billion revolver, $385 million of unsettled forward equity, ~$465 million expected from the U-Haul repurchase and a $1.5 billion self-storage portfolio—and the firm also holds a $400 million Lineage stake.
  • Leverage remains conservative with debt to gross assets at 41.3% and net debt to EBITDA at 5.7× (5.4× proforma), supported by a credit rating upgrade to BBB+ / Baa1, a forthcoming credit facility recast and opportunistic bond market access.
  • 2023 AFFO guidance was narrowed to $5.32–$5.38 per share (+~3% YoY) assuming $1.75–$2.25 billion of investments and $300–$400 million of dispositions, targeting mid-7% cash cap rates that translate to unlevered IRRs in the 8–9% range.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
W. P. Carey Q2 2023
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