Canadian Tire Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 10, 2023

There are 11 speakers on the call.

Operator

My name is Donna, and I will be your conference operator today. Welcome to the Canadian Tire Corporation Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. Now I will pass along to Karen Keyes, Head of Investor Relations for Canadian Tire Corporation. Karen?

Speaker 1

Thank you, Donna, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Canadian Tire Corporation's Q2 2023 results conference call. With me today are Greg Hicks, President and CEO Gregory Craig, Executive Vice President and CFO and T. J. Flood, President of Canadian Tire Retail.

Speaker 1

Before we begin, I wanted to draw your attention to the earnings disclosure, which is available on the website. It includes cautionary language about forward looking statements, risks and uncertainties, which also apply to the additional material included this quarter And we welcome you to contact Investor Relations if you don't get through all the questions today. I'll now turn the call over to Greg. Greg?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Karen. Good morning and welcome everyone. As I'm sure you gleaned from our disclosures this morning, our 2nd quarter results Mark a turning point in the Canadian economy. When we announced our Q4 and 2022 results in February, I advised we expected a more constrained demand environment, specifically in the 1st 6 months of 2023. As inflation continues to persist along with rate hikes, consumers are feeling the squeeze and finding themselves in a precarious financial position, which has driven a change in household spend, a trend reiterated by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and Angus Reid data several weeks ago.

Speaker 2

Despite these difficulties, our teams have done a commendable job navigating through the dynamic economic conditions, Managing the remediation efforts at our A. J. Billis distribution center and supporting Canadians impacted by the devastating wildfires. I'm grateful for our team members' dedication to making life in Canada better for our customers, communities and each other, while remaining focused on driving our long term success and growth. Our management team remains disciplined and dedicated.

Speaker 2

There's no question that everyone is clear eyed about the challenges Canadians are currently facing. I'll spend some time this morning discussing in more detail what we're seeing in terms of consumer demand. But before I do, I'll provide some color on our Q2 results. Overall, our Q2 results were in line with last year's figures, But arrived in a slightly different manner than expected. Consolidated comparable sales were up 0.1% following strong growth of 5% in Q2 of 2022.

Speaker 2

Despite softening demand for discretionary goods, we to drive customer engagement by executing the initiatives within our better connected strategy. And our strong gross margin Aided by the MSA impact helped offset increased expenses driven by our continued investments and higher supply chain costs, which were in part Due to the DC fire, this enabled us to deliver a normalized EPS of $3.08 Although Gregory will address this in his prepared remarks, I think it's important to say upfront Given the macro environment, we are managing operating expenses carefully, while continuing to invest in the building blocks for our future. Now let's address the challenging macro environment we face. With 10 interest rate hikes in less than 18 months And persistent inflation impacting the cost of living and leading to reduced savings cushions, Canadian consumers are experiencing increased financial strain And facing tougher spending decisions. Our Triangle Rewards and credit card data provide us with a privileged perspective on the economic landscape.

Speaker 2

These macro pressures are affecting spend across many external categories. This trend, which we've been observing over the last few quarters, The spend per cardholder in Q1 was flat relative to last year, but Q2 marked the 1st quarter since 2020 that saw a decline in spend. Spend categories including home, gas, electronics and clothing are now declining And stalwarts like travel, dining and grocery experienced significantly lower growth rates as the quarter progressed. When you move from external credit card spend to what is happening within our businesses and Triangle Rewards membership specifically, We are seeing more pressure on consumers, particularly following the 9th interest rate increase in June. At the macro level, what we are seeing is real performance bifurcation between essential and discretionary categories.

Speaker 2

At CTR, our Essentials portfolio was up more than 6% in the quarter and our discretionary portfolio was down more than 3%. This performance delta was evident for much of the quarter and accelerated in June. When combining our Triangle membership data With external household data we use in our real estate modeling, we see that the discretionary softness is coming from more indebted households, most notably in Ontario and BC. Spending on higher ticket items started to get squeezed and customers prioritized essential As you would expect, this has had a bigger impact on sales at CTR compared to our other banners. Changes in monetary policy are softening consumer spend across the country, with the last two interest rate moves specifically Creating a more pronounced demand impact in discretionary categories.

Speaker 2

Overall, the macro Economic environment and consumer demand differ significantly from our expectations when we set out our strategy in early 2022. Given this and further to the noticeable slowdown in sales in the Q2, we have decided to withdraw our previously disclosed financial aspirations At this time, it is unclear whether the monetary policy tightening has ended. By the end of Q4, We hope to have a better view of the long term macro environment and interest rate impacts and expect at that time to be in a better position to provide an update on our long term aspirations. To be clear, Our financial aspirations at this time does not shake our commitment nor our conviction for the building blocks of our better connected strategy. Our ongoing commitment to our better connected strategy further positions us to deliver value over the long term.

Speaker 2

As the investments we are making in our stores and digital capabilities continue to outpace expectations. Although spending may be down, store traffic at CTR remains flat, indicating that customers, Even with less to spend, continue to choose us for their purchases, reflecting our sustained relevance and their trust in us. We are continuously adjusting our tactics, while staying true to our better connected strategy. Our Triangle Rewards loyalty program is a crucial avenue for delivering value to our customers. Investments in our Triangle loyalty program have provided members with More opportunities to earn Canadian Tire money.

Speaker 2

In the last 12 months, we've seen our highest spending members earn on average of 8 In Q2, customers redeemed $100,000,000 in Canadian Tire Money across our banners And the associated spend totaled $220,000,000 a 3% increase over last year. And although in Q2, Overall in Q2, loyalty member spend continued to outpace that of non members and member registration rate also increased. Ultimately, our ongoing investment in growing our registered, promotable and Triangle Select members is paying off and creating a pipeline of opportunity for when the market normalizes. In addition to Triangle, our high low retail approach and broad Multi category assortment allows us to offer value to customers through pricing and promotional strategies across our banners. Our own brands portfolio gives us the flexibility to provide customers with what they need at budget friendly prices, And our recent promo value message campaign emphasizes our commitment to helping customers stretch their dollars further.

Speaker 2

Finally, before I turn it over to Gregory, I want to emphasize our sustained commitment to investments that will enhance our competitive position And create shareholder value in the long term. As I said off the top, we do expect these macro challenges to continue for some time, But the market will inevitably stabilize. These investments will ensure we stay ahead and build our relevance to consumers And they are delivering great results even today. Our strategic investments are working as we expected them to, notwithstanding the challenges we face. The recent addition of Mark's and Sport Chek to our 1 digital platform streamlined the customer shopping experience, Further enhancing customers' online experience and supporting sales through our websites.

Speaker 2

And our new partnership with Microsoft will accelerate our modernization efforts, enhancing flexibility, stability, scalability and innovation. Through our co innovation with Microsoft in the generative AI space, Additionally, we are already reaping the rewards of our CTR store investments. The 57 new or refreshed store projects completed to date Overall, while we face challenges today, we are not losing sight of the bigger picture. Our focus on customer value through Triangle Rewards, own brands, strategic investments and our high low And with that, I'll pass it over to Gregory.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'll spend most of my prepared remarks this morning on what drove our Q2 results, followed by our views on the balance of the year and finish with some commentary on our continued focus on the long term. Starting with our Q2 results. Overall, although we are pleased with how we performed in the quarter, our results demonstrate that we are not immune to macroeconomic pressures, which are most impactful in quarters like Q2, where our discretionary mix is at its highest. As Greg mentioned, inflation remains stubbornly persistent And interest rates have risen at an unprecedented rate.

Speaker 3

I know we're all looking forward to one day when the economic conditions stabilize. That said, we are happy with our solid sales performance in the quarter, up 0.1% against a 5% comp a year ago. With good margin management, we delivered consolidated normalized earnings only slightly below last year. Retail earnings benefited from the MSA change, which flowed through the retail segment numbers. Excluding that, revenue and gross margin dollars were lower than last year, Despite faster than expected remediation at the DC and with an 80 basis point increase in the gross margin rate driven by CTR, Financial Services delivered solid normalized earnings.

Speaker 3

Revenue gains were offset by the expected decline in gross margin as net write offs continue to return to more historic levels. We also had higher net finance costs and as a result normalized diluted EPS Was essentially flat compared to last year at $3.08 Now as reported income was 1.76 Lower than last year by $0.67 let me unpack the 2 normalizing items. The first was a $33,300,000 charge in relation to recently enacted budget legislation, which will require GST HST treatment on payment clearing services. The charge represented an impact of around $0.35 at the EPS level and brings us up to date for this change. This expense will also be recognized in SG and A going forward.

Speaker 3

The second item was our continued costs related to the remediation of the March DC fire, which we have also normalized for. Costs for building damage, asset write downs, cleanup and repairs We're $74,600,000 in the quarter or around $0.97 at the EPS level. We expect further direct Costs related to the fire to ramp down over the next quarter or so and hope to provide an update on insurance recoveries as we progress the claim with our insurers. Additionally, it's worth adding here that we estimate the indirect impacts for the fire, which we did not normalize for, accounted for a further $0.15 of impact on a per share basis. With that, I'll move on to the performance of the retail business starting with sales.

Speaker 3

Retail sales were just under 3% were down just under 3% to $5,200,000,000 driven by a 19% decline in petroleum sales on lower volumes and as we cycled record fuel prices this time last year. Excluding petroleum, sales were down 0.1% against strong growth in all banners last year. The quarter was characterized by good growth in April, which we mentioned on our Q1 call, but sales softened as we came through the quarter, particularly in Ontario. At CTR, comparable sales were up 0.1%. We continue to see customers shift to essentials and more value offerings.

Speaker 3

And as Greg mentioned, providing our customers with value is where we remain focused. For the Q3 in a row, Automotive and Living grew at Canadian Tire Retail, These divisions were offset by declines in seasonal, playing and to a lesser extent fixing. Essential automotive categories such as maintenance And auto parts grew across all regions, driven by demand for oil, tires and battery. In the Living division, Kitchen, cleaning and pet care categories were also up across the country. We also saw good demand in other categories like gardening, golf, hockey and outdoor cooking.

Speaker 3

Poor air quality drove higher sales of home air quality appliances and products, but these were offset by lower demand for party supplies, patio furniture, bikes and camping. Turning to CTR revenue now, Stronger than expected outbound volumes from the A. J. Billis distribution center meant that revenue we expected to be delayed into Q3 We've discussed before that in any one quarter, we may see a disconnect between sales and revenue growth, and that was the case again this quarter as revenue in discretionary categories was down significantly against growth last year. At Sport Chek, Q2 comparable sales were up 0.1% With good growth in Quebec and Ontario, with Quebec and Alberta, while Ontario was down.

Speaker 3

The tougher consumer demand environment Meant promotional intensity remained highest in this business, but we leveraged Triangle Loyalty effectively to offset some of this, acquiring new members, Reengaging inactive members and growing loyalty baskets and sales. Orchak has been focused on building out its team sports offering, And we are pleased to see the category up 10% this quarter with growth across all regions. At Mark's, Comparable sales ended slightly ahead of last year, up 0.4% despite cycling a really tough comp. As a reminder, in the Q2 of last year, Mark's was up close to 21% on demand for casualwear and industrial apparel. In the quarter, industrial and casual footwear sales were up, offsetting the decline in casual wear compared to last year.

Speaker 3

Strategically, our path to long term and incremental sales growth Continues to be finding the right balance to attract a broader customer set at Mark's by having an ideal mix of industrial and casual wear across owned and national brands. We are well on track with the conversion of a handful of Bed Bath and Beyond stores that will become part of the Mark's banner and contribute to Mark's growth going forward. We expect to open these in the coming quarters starting in Red Deer later this year. We're also trialing a new FormIt store dedicated to workwear in a few key markets, with the first scheduled to open in Edmonton in August. Turning now to Helly Hansen.

Speaker 3

At the end of Q2, Helly Hansen revenue was up 11.3% on a year to date basis, with the 2.9% decline this quarter, mainly reflecting the timing of sports wholesale shipments. Consumer demand, especially in the U. S. Drove strong sales growth to our retail and e commerce channels in the quarter. And the business is gearing up for the opening of new outlet stores in Canada and U.

Speaker 3

S. Over the next year, which is expected to contribute to growth and margin expansion at Helly. Before I move on to financial services, I will briefly comment on our retail gross margin as well as OpEx and inventory levels. In the current environment, it is critical that we strike the right balance Between demand creation and being price competitive to drive value for our customers, and we were pleased with the balance we struck this quarter. Our Q2 reported gross margin rate excluding petroleum was 35.7%, up 2 51 basis points.

Speaker 3

Even after excluding the favorable MSA change, retail gross margin rate excluding petroleum was up 80 basis points. You will remember that freight costs were especially high in Q2 and Q3 last year. Lower freight costs this year helped across our banners. This along with stronger product margin at CTR more than offset higher promotional intensity at Sport Chek and Mark's. As you know, margin always varies somewhat quarter to quarter.

Speaker 3

And this year, we have a more marked year on year movement due to the MSA impact, with a favorable benefit in the 1st 3 quarters reversing in Q4. In the current economic context, Operational discipline remains a key focus and we are intent on finding efficiencies that will help us drive the long term growth of the business. Normalized consolidated SG and A was up 5% in the quarter, mainly due to strategic investments as we transition to a cloud based infrastructure and invest in the retail store network. Due to the DC fire, we also had operating efficiencies that we didn't normalized for. The rate of SG and A growth did slow this quarter.

Speaker 3

We expect this trend to continue in the back half of the year As supply chain costs come down and we reduce the need for 3PLs through further reductions in inventory, even as we continue to invest to support our better connected strategy. Inventory growth also slowed this quarter with inventory up 6% versus up 22% at the end of Q1. TTR inventory was down reflecting the adjusted buys we spoke to last quarter and springsummer sell through offset by higher inventory at other banners, partially reflecting unit cost inflation. On the dealer side, inventory units are now below last year with improvements in springsummer and non seasonal categories. I'll now move on to Financial Services, where portfolio performance metrics continue to trend back towards historic levels and are in line with our expectations.

Speaker 3

Active accounts and average account balances grew more slowly this quarter, Both were up around 4% as a result of slowing credit card acquisition. As Greg mentioned, card spend declined for the first time since Q4 of 2020, Softening through the quarter and ending down by close to 2%, driven by declines and lower spending on our card outside of our family of companies. Despite the slowing in key account metrics, receivables were up 8.2% and ending receivables finished the quarter at $7,200,000,000 Turning now to the financial performance of the business. Revenue was up 7% over last year, while gross margin was down, reflecting higher write offs and net interest expense. The ECL allowance was at $913,000,000 was up $44,000,000 versus last year And up $16,000,000 compared to Q1, reflecting growth in receivables in the quarter.

Speaker 3

The allowance rate finished the quarter at 12.7% within our target range of 11.5% to 13.5%. OpEx this quarter include $33,000,000 charge in relation to the recently enacted budget legislation for HSTGST on payment clearing services, which we isolated as a normalizing charge. Normalized IVT ended relatively flat compared to 2022 at 88,700,000 Risk metrics were broadly in line with the last quarter. PD2 plus rates were at 3% and the write off rate was up slightly to 5.6%. The write off rate continues to return to more historic levels as new accounts work their way through the portfolio and mature account performance stabilizes.

Speaker 3

Employment, a key economic indicator for us, remains robust and payment rates remain higher than historic levels. However, we have started to take proactive measures around acquisition strategies and reduce lending for the higher risk segments to manage potential exposure Given the economic uncertainty that we are facing. As we look ahead for the balance of the year, we've already seen meaningful indications That consumers have been cutting back on spend through June, as Greg has outlined. What we've seen in our results through July Does not indicate any change in that consumer behavior, although we will have easier sales comps and fewer freight headwinds as we come through the last few months of the year, particularly in Q3 when we're cycling higher freight costs. In light of softer consumer demand, shipments to dealers and revenue growth at CTR will likely be softer in the back half of the year, Especially when added to the fact we've now clear our backlog caused by the DC fire.

Speaker 3

As we discussed in February, dealers ended Q4 a little heavy on inventory In certain Christmas categories, we expect them to continue to prioritize non seasonal and essential inventory as they adapt and respond to a softer consumer demand. This should drive a further inventory reduction at CTR, which will help reduce related supply chain and interest costs, notwithstanding higher interest rates than last year. Before I conclude, I want to touch briefly on this management team's strong belief And CTC's long term growth prospects, and I want to separate that from the withdrawal of our financial aspirations. While we suspect softer consumer demand will dampen retail sales over the coming quarters, we expect our better connected strategy In combination with favorable long term trends like Canada's growing population and solid employment trends to favor retailers like Canadian Tire We're prepared to be there for Canadians by investing in the Canadian market. As such, we remain committed to our better connected strategy and want to reiterate our confidence and our longer term prospects for profitable growth.

Speaker 3

We're optimistic that the economy and the consumer will stabilize over time You will once again get the benefit of growth from the more discretionary part of our assortment. In the meantime, we have the capacity to navigate this environment With a strong balance sheet and a resilient business model, we have the right long term strategy and a management team with the skills and conviction to get it done. I want to thank them for their continued commitment to managing today, while remaining focused on driving our long term growth. We continue to believe we We're better positioned than we've ever been to operate with agility and manage our business tightly to allocate cash effectively and manage our offering to deliver value to our customers. We will continue to prioritize spending that supports our long term strategic initiatives as we plan for 2024 $138,000,000 in dividends to shareholders and returned $421,000,000 to shareholders by way of our current buyback program.

Speaker 3

We continue to believe that balanced and consistent capital allocation anchored on investing in our business for the longer term is the best approach. As we normally do, we plan to update you on our capital allocation plans for 2024 when we report our Q3 results in November. With that, I'll hand it over to Greg for his closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Gregory. Challenging as it may be, we continue to balance managing in the short term With bolstering our capabilities for the long term through continued investment in our better connected strategy. And we also continue to live up Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir.

Speaker 2

Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir.

Speaker 2

Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir.

Speaker 2

Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir. Good morning, everyone. Thank you, We held our annual Jumpstart Month and our employees for Jumpstart campaign achieved record setting fundraising results. I want to thank our customers, team members, Canadian Tire dealers and our vendors for their incredible generosity, which is further enabling us to ensure that come what may, Our first question comes from the line of David.

Speaker 2

The impact of extreme weather is being felt around the world. Here in Canada, it has perhaps never felt more real

Speaker 3

And right now, for our

Speaker 2

part, we will continue to step up with support for those impacted by these ongoing crises. I'll end my prepared remarks this morning by reiterating my thanks to the team. Getting through the first half of this year And delivering the results we announced today was no easy feat. We certainly need to continue proving our mettle, but I have confidence in our collective strength and ambition, which I expect to pay off in the long term. And with that, I'll pass it over to the operator for questions.

Operator

Thank is from Irene Nattel from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thanks and good morning everyone. Really appreciate all the color that you've provided around

Speaker 3

The current demand environment.

Speaker 4

So my question is around discretionary versus essentials. Can you give us an idea of What proportion of your sales fall into each of those buckets? And sort of also a little bit color around how you're thinking about inventory and price or offering and price points

Speaker 2

Yes. Good morning, Irene. I think it's probably Most applicable to CTR, I would imagine. So maybe we'll have T. J.

Speaker 2

Answer that.

Speaker 5

Yes. Good morning, Irene. Hope you're doing well. As you know, we have a robust data That we analyze our business with and we've been talking a lot over the last couple of quarters About the bifurcation between essential and non essential and how consumers are migrating more towards essential. If you look at our business in totality, we're about 2 thirds non essential and a third essential, and that really changes Quarter to quarter to quarter, Q2 would be the quarter that we have the most pronounced, non essential business.

Speaker 5

And you get into Q4 and Q1 and it becomes a little bit more essential. What we've been seeing as you pointed out and as Craig and Gregory both pointed out is that we have seen a migration more towards essential And it drove the growth that we did have in Q1 or Q2, I should say. As we go forward, what we're doing is We're leaning into our inventory buys, particularly as we see consumer trends leaning more towards The Essential businesses. So as we look to the back half of the year for Q3 and Q4, we do start to see a little bit more pronounced SKU in our mix towards essential and we will be driving our inventory buys accordingly. And you see the dealers lining up that way as well.

Speaker 5

Our inventory buys and what they're holding in inventory will help Drive Q3 and Q4 and we do expect some of these trends to continue as we go forward. Irene, I

Speaker 2

would just add, we feel Really good, about the fact that at CTR, when you look at our corporate inventory, our discretionary inventory It's down over double digit year over year and our in transit discretionary inventory is down even further. And when you look at dealer discretionary inventory, it's only marginally up. So as we think about the tactics The planning and the running of the business around what we're seeing in the performance delta, inventory Is rounding out and shaping the way we would want, based on the demand signals we're seeing.

Speaker 4

That's really helpful. I just want to make sure that I heard correctly. You said 2 thirds is non essential and 1 third is essential?

Speaker 5

Correct. Yes, over the long term with a little bit different skew quarter to quarter. As you get into the back half of the year, we skew a little bit more essential

Speaker 4

Okay. So if just thinking how thinking through or trying to put this all together In terms of sort of the evolution of the shipments to dealers in the back half of the year, if we're seeing weakness in discretionary, But dealers are a little bit up in discretionary inventory. We should be thinking that the shipment should be down more than what we might

Speaker 3

Yes, it's Greg here. Let me take that one. Look, I think there's as you know any quarter, there's a lot of moving pieces of what you just said, that can impact this kind of one way or the other. I think what I would say, because you also, again, If I talk again what we're comparing against last year, that's part of the equation as well, right? As you remember, Q3 and Q4 from a comp perspective were a little softer from a demand From a POS perspective, Irene, it's a as always, it's a bit of puzzles pieces to put together.

Speaker 3

But I think what you said is accurate around that one element of it, but I would just encourage you to think those other pieces of it kind of more in totality around what the revenue and sales picture may look like. That's all I want to encourage in my in your thinking on this.

Speaker 4

Thanks. That's very helpful.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from George Doumet from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes, hi, good morning. I just want to get a sense of how the CTR comps performed in the quarter. I think you gave an April number, maybe a June May number. Just trying to get a sense of it was more linear, if it stepped down exiting. Also just wondering what drove the weakness in Ontario?

Speaker 6

Is that just higher household leverage or anything else you can call out? Thanks.

Speaker 5

Yes, George, it's TJ. Maybe I'll start with the first part of your question. As we articulated and Gregory mentioned In his upfront on our Q1 call, we mentioned that we were up 3% in April at CTR And we finished the quarter, plus 0.1%. So obviously, the sales trajectory, went in a downward direction as the quarter went on particularly in June. So we definitely saw that and we also looked at that from an essential and non essential perspective And the non essential categories drove that disproportionate growth in a more pronounced way, particularly into June.

Speaker 5

Greg, I think you wanted to comment on Yes.

Speaker 2

So George, maybe I'll try and unpack The Ontario comment is part of a bigger story. So bear with me on that. We tried to do Unpack as much as we could in the prepared remarks, but maybe I'll go a little bit deeper. I mean generally speaking, when you look across the country at spend by household Come amongst Triangle Credit customers, what we're seeing is growth in CTC spend at all income levels. Customers with lower incomes continue to outpace the average spend growth across all income segments, but again there's growth in all segments.

Speaker 2

I think the bigger new analysis that we've shared this quarter is a level deeper. And it's about combining our triangle data With external data around debt to income classifications. In other words, how indebted is the household And we really start to see performance deltas emerge, by region as well. Debt burden households decreased their spend with us significantly in the quarter, especially in June, especially in discretionary categories, And the sales performance with Delta was the greatest in Ontario and BC, which happened to have the highest concentration of debt to disposable income in Canada. So what we're seeing George is very clear to us.

Speaker 2

Our essential portfolio remains extremely resilient Across all income levels and all regions, and inclusive of debt burden households, where we're seeing softness is in the discretionary portfolio. So I think the objective of quantitative tightening is being delivered upon. I can't speak whether it's too much, But we can certainly tell you that across our portfolio of discretionary categories, especially in Ontario and BC, That policy is having its intended effect. So what we're based on what we're seeing As we tried to talk about, we are adjusting our overall resource allocation to lean into value And essential categories with even more conviction than our commentary the last couple of quarters. But as I've said before, we're going to do so in the confines of the better connected Strategy.

Speaker 2

I'm really pleased with what I'm seeing with regards to traffic holding steady across our businesses, not just CTR, which I think is really positive.

Speaker 6

Okay, that's helpful. And just my follow-up maybe to Gregory, can you maybe break down that retail SG and A inflation number a little bit, Maybe it's a bucket for us. I'm just trying to get a sense of what the exit could look like after the year. And I'm just wondering, generally speaking, is there anything we can perhaps do To maybe slow that down in case the macro gets a little bit tougher from here.

Speaker 3

Yes. Sorry, I think I missed the That was retail SG and A, I believe, George, right?

Speaker 6

Yes, yes, that's it, please. Okay.

Speaker 3

Yes, I think what we're seeing is consistent with what we've Talked about last quarter, so I'll just and I think it's actually playing through even in our inventory numbers. So that if I break it down by category, there are 3 areas that you're seeing kind of increase on Retail side of things from a cost perspective. One of course is as you said, we're spending more in IT to support our better connected strategy. And frankly, we're expensing more because it's basically cloud based infrastructure initiatives, which have a different accounting treatment. And the issue we're facing there is I don't think we've reached the new norm yet around mix of spend.

Speaker 3

I think we're still a few quarters away from getting to that normalized kind of New penetration rate or mix rate of capital versus expense. So I still think that is going to be kind of a headwind as we roll forward. But I said this on a few of the calls last quarter and I'll keep saying, the cash is the same here. All this is, is we're accelerating the recognition because Essentially, you take the expense now instead of recognizing it as depreciation. So over time, the depreciation numbers will go down to offset this.

Speaker 3

We're just in that Transition period kind of in these early days as we've kind of invoked more on these cloud based infrastructure initiatives. So That's where I would say we are from IT. We're not through the journey yet, but we've absorbed a lot of that change, but there's still some more to come. On the supply chain side, we talked about the number of 3PLs. And again, the merchants, the supply chain team have done a great job navigating kind of the inventory.

Speaker 3

Remember back to the end of Q4 this year, at the corporate level, we were up 30%, three-zero, and we moved that down to 6%, There's more work we need to do to continue to work on that corporate inventory position. What you'll see then is Basically an improvement in a reduction of 3PL. So our supply chain costs will go down over time. And I think you're going to going to start to see that kind of in the latter part of the year. The other one I'd point out around an increase is really around our retail.

Speaker 3

As we put Greg said, there's 57 stores that And projects we've refreshed and implemented. So those will start to kind of grow our occupancy costs, our cam related costs, etcetera. But You're going to get revenue for those directly. So that should be in line from a leverage perspective. It's just right now when the revenue is Down a little bit for the reasons we've talked about, the leverage ratio looks a little bit off more than I think it is.

Speaker 3

So long way of saying, I think it's playing out the way we've expected it to, And it is an area we're focused on. And as I said in my remarks, we know we have to look more closely at every spend right now. We want to make sure we're investing to support our long term strategy and those things we can defer, I will assure you all we are deferring. We're going to continue to do that on as we're moving forward. So a bit of a long answer, but you gave me a chance to kind of get at this once and for all.

Speaker 3

So hopefully that adds So more clarity for everybody.

Speaker 6

Yes, thanks for that. I guess no plans to really slow down that retail bucket this time, right?

Speaker 3

No, again, we are committed to kind of grow Our strategy I don't think any of us want to take a short term view on this and say, let's just cut all these IT projects. We just got one digital platform in play. There's more things we want to do to leverage that and build off and take advantage of it. I think that's just the wrong term decision like we're committed to this strategy, But we are going to look around the edges. I'll say again, George, I mean, on a consolidated basis, not retail, on a consolidated basis, our SG and A was up 5% in the quarter.

Speaker 3

That's down from where it has been trending.

Speaker 6

Okay. Appreciate the color. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Mark Petrie from CIBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Good morning. You called out strength in higher penetration in owned brands Despite the shift away from discretionary expense, I just wanted to dig into that a bit more. Maybe first, where are you seeing the biggest sort of growth in owned brands? And 2, How materially are owned brands skewed to the discretionary portfolio?

Speaker 2

Yes, maybe I'll take that Mark. We obviously continue to be very bullish on the On owned brands in totality in terms of its ability to differentiate our business, we've got all sorts of work Going on across the business to further penetration further penetrate our own brands business, When you look to the quarter specifically, about 38% of the business was owned brands. We had real strong growth in a couple of key brands across the businesses. Vida by Paderno was really strong, PowerPot, Sure would. Petco to name a few.

Speaker 2

And maybe just for illustration purposes, I know you love to hear some of these brand stories. I'm really pleased with the progress we've made with the Sherwood brand Over the last few years, since the brand's launch in 2020, we've been really focused on The brand's credibility with the next generation of hockey players and this just gives me a nice opportunity for an announcement plug, which we'll Formally announce tomorrow, we've just aligned with Conor Bedard and his management team on a multiyear partnership, where the Sherwood brand We'll be the exclusive provider of hockey sticks, gloves and other equipment to enable Connor to be his very best on the ice. I don't know that he really needs it, but And this partnership with Connor along with our other partnerships with top athletes like Matthew Kuchak and William Nylander, Just I think it just really demonstrates how far our product development and quality has come, the progress we've made over the last few years. You can definitely expect this brand to show up as a greater force in the hockey market going forward. As it relates to discretionary and essential categories, there's a pretty even distribution of owned brands penetration Cross those two segments of our portfolio.

Speaker 2

To T. J. Point, it shows up a little bit differently by quarter when you think about Some of the big discretionary categories that drive Q2, like barbecues and bikes and patio furniture and camping, We saw softness in those discretionary categories and still held our overall penetration rate at 38%. So The automotive and repair and maintenance fixing businesses, etcetera, are going to show up tall in our essential portfolio. And there's a whole bunch of brands, MOTAMaster, Maximum, MasterCraft that start to come to mind, NOMA, When you think about that essential portfolio for the back half of the year, so I think we're well positioned with the own brand portfolio to provide value As the shift moves more to essential going forward.

Speaker 7

Okay, thanks. And then On a related question, obviously, the relationship with big national brands is a key part of the strategy across banners. I know there's been lots of success stories, so Don't necessarily need a full recap, but I'm just curious, particularly with CTR and Czech, if there's anything of note with regards to how Your relationship with the key national brands is evolving.

Speaker 5

Mark, it's TJ. Maybe I can start with that. I think When we talk about our assortments, we like to talk about the diversity of our assortment and the breadth of offering and we often talk about kind of the good, better, best spectrum And how much breadth we have in the price range architecture, but similarly from an owned brand and a national brand We really believe that we've got a really strong one two punch when it comes to the consumer offering. And what we do is we partner up Category by category with the national brands that consumers covet and stay loyal to over time. So we continue to do that as we go And whether it's SodaStream or Dyson or the likes of those types of brands, it's we despite the fact that we have a Very, very strong owned brands portfolio.

Speaker 5

We see a ton of value for consumers and our consumers see a ton of value in us having the brands that they want category by category. We're going to continue to kind of drive that 1, 2 punches as we go forward here and we don't See any change in tack from that perspective.

Speaker 2

And I would just add, Mark, and yes, specifically about Chek, Very strong growth with Nike on a year to date basis. And Sport Chek, I think we're moving that relationship Closer to where we'd like it to be, the inventory supply, is kind of moving in our favor relative to last year Previous years through the pandemic, I think the teams are working well together, and the assortments are standing up tall in front of the customer in the Czech business.

Speaker 6

All right. Thanks for all the comments. All the best.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Mark.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Tammy Chen from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thanks. Good morning. First, a clarification question. When you talk about corporate inventory, It entered the quarter up 22%, I think year over year and exited the quarter up 6% year over year. Like you're factoring in The spring summer as well as the Christmas inventory too, correct?

Speaker 3

That is total owned inventory On ships, in DCs, that is on CTC's balance sheet. So there's every tire, every Lender that you can think of that we own title for.

Speaker 8

And the up 6%, is that largely Inflation, or are units down?

Speaker 3

Yes, I think it's a bit of a different story by banner, I think I said on my remarks. So Entire retail is actually down. If you look at some of the other banners are up, there's a little bit of pre order, I think at Marks and Check, they took a bit of early receipt. But I certainly think inflation is part of that story. There's no question.

Speaker 3

But I again, so all the Our Presidents continue to work in this regard, but we're really pleased on the progress we've seen to get us from 30 to 22 down to 6. And as I said in my prepared remarks, We ain't done yet. There's more that we want to do, but there's probably been a bit of early receipt. And you're right, there's going to be a price inflation component of it. But Really, I mean, I don't want to underscore this.

Speaker 3

We're really happy with the performance to get the inventory levels down to where they have been and keep the margin performance where it is. I think those are I just don't want to lose sight of those few points.

Speaker 8

Yes, I'm glad you mentioned the margin part because that's my follow-up question is, I'm just Really surprised that your underlying retail gross margin improved 80 basis points when The consumer environment is what it is and you but you still managed to work down your inventory. So I guess the question is How did that happen? Can you talk a bit more about what the tools were that enabled you to achieve that?

Speaker 2

Sure, Tammy. It's Greg. I'm assuming you're pleasantly surprised, right? Yes. Yes.

Speaker 2

Well, listen, Gregory hit on this. We I think this is the story, right? It's the teams continue to manage margin extremely well. When you look at components of margin, we certainly had headwinds from freight and COGS inflationary pressures, we've started to see those reverse in the quarter, And we're working as hard as we possibly can to get every dollar we can on some of that reversal. We'd like it to come quicker to us, but we're working hard to get it.

Speaker 2

And we've continued to leverage our capabilities. And I would say there's 3 or 4 big ones. 1 certainly is our sourcing To take advantage of that deflation in the COGS base, 2 is the elasticity modeling around promotional discounting And really pivoting towards how to think about elasticity for essential businesses, and then our customer data to really strike The right balance between price investment and margin efficiency. I think we've talked about many times, we're also placing increased Emphasis on targeted Triangle Rewards related investment versus mass price investment. That shows up in all banners.

Speaker 2

It's really starting to come through, has been for a couple of quarters, a few quarters in check and marks. It's just giving us better efficiency. But in general, I'd say in most of the categories in which we compete, The industry was and maybe still is dealing with higher levels of inventory. So for sure, the promotional intensity It was high in the quarter and we expect it to be as we move forward for the balance of the year. We although we did appreciate our margins, I can tell you, we don't feel like we left the bat on our shoulders at all this quarter as our Promotional discounts this quarter were steeper than they were last year, both in terms of average SafeStory and total dollar discounts.

Speaker 2

Our growth Across our businesses is definitely more pronounced for discounted items, but we're still managing those margins with all the levers I talked about. Gregory mentioned, just like revenue and sales, there can always be variation quarter to quarter. But as we talked about, A fundamental building block of our Investor Day plan was to hold our margins flat. And this quarter, I think demonstrates That capability really shining through.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Vishal Shreedhar from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Just a clarification. So when you're withdrawing your longer term 2020 Five aspirations. You're maintaining your aspiration to hold gross margin and protect those gains that you saw through the pandemic. Is that what I just heard you say in the last comment?

Speaker 3

I think it's Greg here Vishal. I think As Greg said in his prepared remarks, we withdrew the financial operations and I'm going to keep saying this because I think it's critical, but we are totally committed to the better connected strategy. So let's just make sure we all Separate those things and keep separating them because we're really pleased with what we've seen. I would think I would say it this way. We're going to come back at one point as Greg alluded to With some new aspirations, which will cover all the elements at this point, I would say that that was really never technically an aspiration.

Speaker 3

It was more just an objective within the aspirations that we Had around ROIC or around the EPS target, that is still a focus of the area. So I don't want you to think just because we've withdrawn the aspirations, We're going to let TJ go hog wild and do a bunch of things on margin. So I just I say that a bit in jest, but I mean It's really around kind of the demand environment and how different things have been versus what we expected is why we felt it appropriate to withdraw the aspirations at this time. But we feel the actions we're taking are bang on. And so we're going to continue to work on margin management.

Speaker 3

We're going to continue to focus on own brands. Like None of that's going to change until and then once the economic conditions we think settle down, then we'll kind of put it all back together again and talk to you about Aspirations at that point in time, is that clear?

Speaker 9

Yes, it's clear. I just want to double click on that. I mean, obviously, There's something that's changed within your modeling to cause you to say, hey, you know what, maybe these aspirations that we've laid out are inappropriate. So Obviously, you said the demand side is 1. So I'm just cascading down the P and L and to figure out what the other line items are.

Speaker 9

In your mind and obviously demand is 1 on that sales side, but gross margin and sales are linked. So

Speaker 3

Yes. Maybe it's Greg, let me repeat that again. I think in our disclosures on the press release, we tried to kind of outline where the kind of changes kind of were. So you hit on the biggest one in my mind, which is consumer demand, which cascades its way down everything to be frank. The other thing is kind of inventory levels.

Speaker 3

We talked I think in the press release and the MD and A around carrying much more inventory than we thought is that has an impact on 3PLs and Some of our SG and A and costs, interest rates, what that's done, not only there's been more kind of working capital we're carrying, but We've got 10 interest rate increases that we didn't necessarily contemplate. So it is interest inflation driven That kind of makes its way in various parts of the P and L, but I'll tell you the biggest one far and away is the demand environment and what that's done. That's what I would just want to reiterate.

Speaker 2

Yes, I think, Vishal, That's the most important point. I mean, since the Investor Day, which is less than 18 months ago, We've seen a complete inversion with GDP growth and the policy rate. Going into the Investor Day, we had 5% GDP And effectively a 0 nominal interest rate and we've gone to the exact opposite. And it's not clear to us now where we are in the tightening cycle. So If we aren't done, then we'll continue to see demand impacts in our discretionary businesses.

Speaker 2

If we are done or close to being done, then we're in a better position to provide a View to how we believe these businesses will perform on the top line and how that flows through the revenue and the rest of the P and L to your point, because we're going to be operating With much more stable visibility, we just don't have that right now. So that's the biggest rationale for the withdrawal. But to Gregory's point, The key components of how we run our business for long term growth, they're not going to change, while we're waiting to get that visibility.

Speaker 9

Okay. And with respect to e commerce sales and Canadian Tire, it's a path to increasingly become an omni channel retailer, improve your omni channel capabilities. Are your e commerce sales, are they where you thought they would have been when you came up with your Investor Day plan? And if not, No one's talking about changing the plan, but is it possible to defer some of the investments later down the road or is that

Speaker 2

Well, we're certainly not taking our foot off the gas from an investment standpoint, Vishal. And We continue to believe that looking at e commerce and bricks and mortar as 2 different channels is the wrong way to look at the business. The customer is the channel, and the lines are so blurred between digital and the store. And that's what our new Concept Connect format is all about. It's about deploying technology in store that improves the customer experience and ODP It's about improving every element of the digital experience, which connects to physical sales.

Speaker 2

I mean, As we've talked about before, our estimate is that 80% of all in store transactions, the front door of the transaction is the website. So We continue to remain very pleased with the work done across our banners on the digital front, Both for e commerce and in store, our penetration rates to your point, they've settled in that mid to high single digit range, And we continue to show up with options for the customer anyway they want to shop. We've now successfully rolled out 1 digital platform across All of our major banners as we talked about, we've been talking to you about that investment for almost 4 years, right? It's It got slowed a little bit with COVID, but it's modern architecture and the ability to quickly unlock personalized customer Centered experiences that could end online or could end in the store. So I think we Feel really, really good about how all this is coming together.

Speaker 2

And we continue to push technology deployments Into physical locations, when you think just in CTR, 90% of Canadian Tire stores now have lockers. We have rolled out scan and buy in stores across the network. We've got deployment now of electronic shelf labels that we're pretty excited about 70% of the store network. Check is moving forward with a significant amount of locker expansion. We've got same day delivery pilots going.

Speaker 2

So there's a tremendous amount of activity, but I wouldn't tease out That activity is specific to e commerce. It's really about omni channel and it's the essence of better connected. It's connecting the physical and digital channels. So that is the essence of the strategy.

Speaker 9

Thanks for those comments. Thanks.

Speaker 10

Thanks,

Speaker 3

Richard. Thank

Operator

you. The next question is from Chris Lee from Desjardins. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in. Just apologies if you covered this already, but could you share with us what was the CTR comp in July?

Speaker 3

It's Gregory here. I think what we said was the trend we saw in June continued. We didn't give the number and I'm not planning on right now either, but all we are notifying is just the trend that we saw that as our disclosures talked Notice the slowdown, I think was the wording we used in July and that same trend continued in July.

Speaker 10

Okay, that's helpful. And then my other question, I know this is a very difficult question to answer because no one here has a crystal ball and it's probably too early to ask this. But given the 10 interest rate hikes have a Delayed impact on consumer spending, do you think it's reasonable to expect earnings growth next year? I mean, obviously, sales will likely remain challenged Next year, but it sounds like you do have other levers that you can pull to get some growth. So just at a high level, how do you think about the earnings growth Cadence for next year.

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes, I think it's Gregory here. And I think I'm just not going to be prepared to answer at this point. And the reality is, I think Greg gave a good summary in terms of where we are. Let's get Through kind of these economic conditions, once we have that settled, we're more than willing to talk about next year, 5 years, 2 years, whatever it is. But We're just seeing, as you said, what happened in June July.

Speaker 3

And I just think for us to kind of talk at this point, It's not appropriate in my mind. So stay tuned. I know it's a question in all your minds and we'll look to be able to answer it when we think we're ready. But at this point, I just want to reiterate, we are working on the right things for the long term success of Canadian Tire. And if there's some short term noise and some pain in that, That'll be what it'll be, but we're a better business, we're more resilient and we can work and will work and manage our way through this is how I'd want to leave it.

Speaker 10

Okay. That's fair and best of luck.

Speaker 3

Thank you. Thank you, Chris.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Luke Cannon from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Good morning and appreciate you Squeezing me in here. Gregory, I think I heard you correctly earlier in the call, you said during your prepared remarks that you expect the pace of SG and A growth Slow through the balance of the year. I'm curious if you can help us get an understanding of what exactly is embedded within That assumption as far as the combination of ramping up the new GTA DC that you have and also the use of 3PLs I appreciate that. It's probably going to be less than what you're doing right now as far as relying on them.

Speaker 7

But I just want to get an understanding of what your base case is for where you expect that mix or that usage to be in the balance of the year, 3PLs versus your own DCs. And maybe if you anticipate still relying on a good mix of 3PLs for 2024.

Speaker 3

Yes, I think the way I'd answer the question is we think about going into 2024, our number will be significantly reduced from number of 3PLs. I'm going to stop short of telling you kind of where we are and what that's going to fall down to. But I mean, it'll be noticeable on the P and L, let me put it that way. It's not insignificant. But as you know, there's lots of things to work through.

Speaker 3

It's still kind of in this time period. So that's our plan. Feel really good about the progress made. The merchants, the supply chain team are all committed to this And I would expect we're going to enter 2024 with a very different ex desk capacity picture than we have now and Certainly than we had at this point last year.

Speaker 7

Okay. And then maybe a quick follow-up as well. Appreciate the commentary that you've given so far on your remediation efforts at the A. J. Billings DC.

Speaker 7

I appreciate it's early days, but would you be able to give any sort of rough timeline for when you expect those remediation efforts to be fully complete? Or is Is it just too early to tell at this point?

Speaker 3

Yes, let me take that one. It's Gregory again. I think it's been a long process. I will tell you given the extent of the fire, we couldn't really get investigators in, till kind of midway later into Q2. And that's what you have to consider as part of this process, frankly, is people's safety and well-being.

Speaker 3

So, it has gone a bit longer than I think All of us had hoped, but the practical reality is that that's kind of where we are. There's still some direct costs we are certainly going to incur. For example, there's still a hole in the roof. Having said that, like that's probably capital in a different accounting treatment. But my point is, I don't think we're done with recognizing direct costs.

Speaker 3

I expect the indirect costs that we've kind of talked about in Q1 and Q2, I expect those to start to trend downwards. And the question is we're working with the insurer on the claim about when we're going to be able to recognize recoveries. And it's just that again, just given where we We're in the process. It's just going to take us a little bit of time. So that's the best I can give you at this point and we'll speak more about it on Q3.

Speaker 7

Okay. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Hickson.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Anna. Thanks, everyone, for your questions and for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you when we announce our Q3 Results on November 9. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your summer. Bye for now.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

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Key Takeaways

  • Canadian Tire’s Q2 comparable sales were up 0.1% and normalized EPS was $3.08, driven by strong gross margins (including the MSA benefit) that offset higher investments and supply-chain costs from the DC fire.
  • Persistent inflation and 10 interest-rate hikes in 18 months squeezed consumer finances, triggering the first decline in external spend per cardholder since 2020 and a clear split between essentials (+6% at CTR) and discretionary (–3%).
  • Due to ongoing macro uncertainty and rate tightening impacts, the company has withdrawn its previously disclosed long-term financial aspirations and will revisit targets at the end of Q4 when visibility improves.
  • Management remains committed to its Better Connected strategy, investing in the unified digital platform, store remodels (57 completed), Microsoft co-innovation, and enhancements to the Triangle Rewards loyalty program (record earn rates and >$220M in linked spend).
  • Operational discipline is paying off: retail gross margin (ex-petrol) expanded by 80 bp to 35.7%, inventory growth slowed to +6% from +22%, and SG&A growth decelerated even as strategic IT and store investments continue.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Canadian Tire Q2 2023
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