Repligen Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
August 2, 2023

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Repligen Corporation's 2nd Quarter of 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Vaishnavi, and I will be your coordinator. Please note that there will be a question and answer session following the company's formal remarks. In order to accommodate all individuals who wish to ask questions, there will be a limit of 2 questions at a time. I would now like to turn the call over to your host for today's call, Sondra Newman, Head of Investor Relations for Repligen.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Vaishnavi, and welcome to our Q2 of 2023 report. On this call, we'll be covering business highlights Financial performance for the 3 6 month periods ended June 30, 2023. We will also provide an update to our financial guidance for the full year 2023. Repligen's President and CEO, Tony Hunt and our CFO, John Snodgrass, will deliver our report and then we'll open the call up for Q and A. As a reminder, the forward looking statements that we make during this call, including those regarding our business goals and expectations for the Additional information concerning risks related to our business is included in our quarterly reports on Form 10Q, our annual report on Form 10 ks and our current reports on 8 ks, including the report that we're filing today, also other filings that we make with the SEC.

Speaker 1

Today's comments reflect management's current views, which could change as a result of new information, future events Or otherwise, the company does not obligate or commit itself to update forward looking statements except as required by law. During this call, we are providing non GAAP results and guidance. Reconciliations of GAAP to non GAAP financial measures are included in the press release that we issued this morning, which is posted to Repligen's website and on sec.gov. Non GAAP figures in today's report include the following: Revenue growth at constant currency, cost of sales, gross profit and gross margin, operating expenses, including R and D and SG and A, operating income and operating margin, income tax expense, net income and net income per share as well as EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA. These adjusted financial measures should not be viewed as an alternative to GAAP, but are intended to better enable investors to benchmark Repligen's current results against historical performance and the performance of peers when evaluating investment opportunities.

Speaker 1

Now I'll turn the call over to Tony Hunt.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Saundra, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our Q2 earnings call. As you saw in our press release this morning, we delivered $159,000,000 in total revenue in the quarter, down 13% sequentially and 23% year over year. Our base business, which excludes COVID revenue and inorganic M and A, delivered reasonable performance Looking at the first half of twenty twenty three, we delivered $342,000,000 in total revenue. Overall, this was down 17% versus H1 of last year, but the base business again holding up relatively well, down less than 3% in the same period. As a reminder, our base business is coming off 2 years of stellar growth.

Speaker 2

This makes the comps really challenging. In 2022, our base business was up 41% for the 2nd quarter and 34% for the full year. And in 2021, our base business On a franchise level, we saw revenue growth during the Q2 in 3 of our 4 businesses. The exception being filtration, which continues to recalibrate The post COVID market dynamics, filtration by far has the largest market inventory overhang and was the primary contributor to revenue declines in the quarter. With base filtration down 20% year over year, off a tough comp and down 2% sequentially.

Speaker 2

Strength in the quarter came from our analytics, chromatography and proteins franchises. For the quarter and first half of the year, We saw mid single to double digit base business growth. Another area of improvement was cell and gene therapy, which includes non COVID related mRNA. Revenues were up 7% sequentially, though down 4% versus the prior year, also on a tough comp. The quarter over quarter growth in new modalities was led by chromatography and analytics, where we saw strong adoption of our OPUS comms and process analytics products and by commercial approvals, which should be a catalyst for future growth.

Speaker 2

On the orders front, our book to bill for the base business was 0.82 for the quarter and 0.88 for the first half of the year. Within our base orders, cell and gene therapy orders were up 4% in the quarter. Overall, cell and gene therapy is proving to be a steady performer for us here in 2023 with first half book to bill at 0.96. However, the big change that we are seeing in the market in the Q2 is a drop off in demand from pharma, which includes biotech, along with the slowdown in orders at the CDMO level after 2 quarters of modest gains. The headwinds in the market, which have been predominantly related To inventory overhang in confined for the most part to the CDMO and component integrator sectors of the market have broadened.

Speaker 2

Pharma based revenues were solid in the 2nd quarter and have remained consistent for the past 5 quarters, while pharma orders have softened. In the Q1 of this year, orders were down primarily due to weakness in China. This broadens in the Q2 where pharma based business orders Capital equipment purchases and delays in pharma projects, where some programs are getting pushed out by 1 to 2 quarters. We are also seeing pharma drawing down inventory levels on consumables, something we didn't observe in 2022 when pharma demand remained strong throughout the whole year. Of the 25% drop in pharma orders here in Europe, we estimate that about a third came from softness in capital equipment spend, 3rd from consumables inventory drawdown and the final third is related to China.

Speaker 2

Orders from CD Mills Also softened in the 2nd quarter after 2 quarters of modest gains, down 10% sequentially, but still up 9% for First half of this year versus the second half of last year for both base and total CDMO orders. Regionally, China ordering remained weak in the 2nd quarter with no improvement versus Q1, although APAC orders were up 15% excluding China and up 5 With this backdrop, forecast demand for the second half of twenty twenty three has dropped across Many of our product lines impacting all of our franchises except for analytics. For the full year, we are derisking our revenue guidance I now expect revenues in the range of $635,000,000 to $665,000,000 which implies a base business decline of 5% to 9%. Before moving on to our second half strategic priorities and an update on Q2 performance by business, I do want to comment on base business performance And why I believe we are still well positioned to grow above market as our industry comes out of this downturn. The portfolio we have put together over the last 10 years is highly differentiated and this has been reflected in the growth we have seen over the last 5 years where we have consistently outperformed the market.

Speaker 2

From 2019 through 2022, our average Business base business growth for the 3 year period was 28%. If we include 2023, using the midpoint of our newly revised 2023 guidance, both the 3 year and 5 year averages come in at 22%. We have an enormous amount of confidence in our strategy and we remain confident about the medium and longer term growth potential for the company. In the near term, We expect that market conditions will start to improve in Q4 and this is based in large part on our strengthening funnel where we have seen a 25% increase And high probability opportunities over the last 3 months. Before the macro environment, I believe Beyond the macro environment, I believe we are executing exactly the way we should be to drive growth for the company.

Speaker 2

That said, we do need to focus our immediate efforts here on the following three priorities. The first is around optimizing our resources and controlling costs. It's clear that the surge in demand related to COVID required us and the industry to ramp up capacity. This leaves us with the post pandemic reality of lower volumes and associated lower margins. To address this, we've started to rebalance our resources and spend over the last 2 quarters, especially in the manufacturing for filtration and component products.

Speaker 2

We're now expanding and accelerating this program with the goal to complete the process over the next few months. We believe this will put us in a better position to see margin improvement in 2024. 2nd is our commercial focus. We spent a lot of time here in 2023 building on our sales funnel, which continues to grow and expand. As I mentioned, the challenges around delays in closing out opportunities and dealing with our customers' longer purchase cycles.

Speaker 2

For example, the time it takes to close out capital equipment opportunities and associated consumables has moved from 3 to 6 months out to 6 to 9 months. We expect this conservatism in the market to remain through 2023, But we do anticipate orders to pick up again in Q4. This would have a positive impact on Q1 twenty twenty four revenues, but not material impact What we can ship in Q4 this year. We're also investing in building out our top down corporate key account program, which we kicked off in Q3 last year. The response from the top pharma and CDMO accounts has been very positive and we have initiated new programs to embed Repligen products at these accounts.

Speaker 2

We feel this is an appropriate time in our journey to balance the efforts of our commercial team with our corporate account structure as we become a larger and more integrated player in And finally, new product launches. A key part of our strategy this year involves disruptive product launches. And in 2023, We are on track to launch H10 products. Contribution from new products launched in 2021 through Q2 of this year accounted for 12% of our revenues in the 2nd quarter, slightly above the 10% we saw in the Q1. A key launch in Q3 will be a first to market products into our customers' manufacturing workflows remain core to our culture and to driving the long term growth for Repligen.

Speaker 2

So moving now to our quarterly performance. As mentioned earlier, the story of the quarter was the performance of our chromatography, proteins and analytics franchises and the overall performance in cell and gene therapy space. In chromatography, 2nd quarter revenues increased approximately 5% year on year. OPUS revenue was essentially flat versus prior year. However, OPUS unit growth in the quarter was up more than 15% as more customers are drop shipping resins to us at our facilities in North America and Europe.

Speaker 2

The driver of Chroma revenue growth in the quarter was our Artisan systems and flowpads, For the first half of twenty twenty three, promo was up over 10%, again driven by RSim Systems and Flowpacks, which nearly doubled year on year. As noted in prior quarters, we expect OPUS resin supply to pick up here in the second half of 2023, and we are guiding to full year chromatography growth of 5% to 10%, slightly down from what our prior guidance of 10% based on column resin mix. Our progress had a solid quarter in first half of twenty twenty three with year over year organic growth in the mid single digits for the quarter and for the first half of the year. We saw consistent performance across the The slowdown in demand at pharma accounts is impacting proteins with lower second half forecast for both our ligands and growth factors. The push out in demand is coming from project delays where we are seeing programs move up by up to 6 months.

Speaker 2

Based on this, we are now guiding to our proteins business being down 15% here in 2023. In Filtration, our business was down approximately 40% for the quarter, driven by a predicted sharp decline in COVID related revenue, which was nominal in the Q2 of 2023. Looking at our base filtration business, revenues were down 20% in the second quarter and 13% for the first half of twenty twenty three against challenging comps. Sequentially, base filtration revenues in the 2nd quarter were down slightly at 2%. Filtration orders during the quarter were soft, but as mentioned previously, we're encouraged by the strength in our filtration funnel and we do expect orders to pick up in the second half of this year, most likely in Q4.

Speaker 2

For the year, we now expect this franchise to be down approximately 30% overall and down 14% on base business. Finally, our Process Analytics business has been performing well with 2nd quarter revenues up 15% to 20% and first half growth of almost 10%. We continue to see strong traction for our in line analytics portfolio led by the FlowBPX and RPM systems, where we're integrating real time process management into our cross flow TFF systems. We are also seeing strong performance from installed base for solo BPEs and expect this business to deliver 15% growth in 2023. So overall, we delivered a little north of $340,000,000 in the revenue in the first half.

Speaker 2

The macro headwinds which have been combined to CDMOs and integrators have spread to the pharma sector, which makes the second half of twenty twenty three more challenging. We have a strengthening pipeline of Higher probability opportunities that we expect to translate into increased orders in Q4. Gene therapy continues to be resilient. 2024 and we are well positioned to capture our share. With that, I will turn the call over to John for the financial update.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Tony, and good day, everyone. To date, we are reporting our financial results for the Q2 of 2023, as well as updating our financial guidance for the year. Unless otherwise mentioned, all financial measures discussed reflect adjusted non GAAP measures. As shared in our press release this morning, we delivered revenue of $159,200,000 in the 2nd quarter, nearly all of which was base business revenue at $157,100,000 As Tony mentioned, the 9% year over year decrease in our base business was against difficult comps following 2 years of well above market growth. While it is an especially challenging year for our company and As we adapt to post COVID and macro market dynamics, we believe we are well positioned to remain the innovation leader in bioprocessing And we are taking necessary steps to rebalance our resources and preserve margins, while looking forward to a return to market growth.

Speaker 3

I'll share more of those details, but first let's review the Q2 and year to date financial highlights. For the Q2, our total revenue decreased by 23% as reported and at constant currency. COVID related revenue for 2nd quarter was nominal at just over $1,000,000 compared with $36,000,000 for the 2022 quarter. Our base business was down 9% as reported and 8% at constant currency. FX impact in the quarter was less than 1,000,000 Creating less than a one point headwind on reported growth.

Speaker 3

Based on current market conditions, we expect negligible impact from FX for the full year. As it relates to regional revenue, we saw contraction in Asia Pacific, Europe and North America as expected, driven by waning COVID demand and software order trends in our base business. Overall revenues from Asia Pacific decreased by 30%, Europe and North America contracted by 21% 22% respectively. Regarding overall revenue distribution by region for the year to date period, Asia Pacific represented 21%, Europe represented 37%, And North America represented 42% of our global business. Now moving down our income statement.

Speaker 3

2nd quarter 2023 adjusted gross profit was $79,900,000 a 34% decrease year over year. Adjusted gross margin of 50.2% in the quarter was down from 58.7% in the 'twenty two quarter. The year over year decline in gross margin was related to volume deleverage, less favorable product mix and higher expenses tied to our capacity expansions. Now transitioning down the P and L to adjusted operating expenses. Adjusted research and development For the Q2 of 2023 represented 6.1 percent of total revenue.

Speaker 3

As Tony mentioned, we are continuing to focus our R and D efforts to Adjusted SG and A expenses for the Q2 of 2023 were nearly 26% of total revenue compared to 22% in the same 2022 period. Year over year percentage increases continue to be tied to lighter revenues coupled with capacity expansion expenses and investments made in commercial resources over the past year to continue to drive growth and market share gains. Now moving to adjusted earnings and EPS. Q2 of 2023 adjusted operating income was $29,400,000 compared to $65,600,000 in the prior year quarter. And adjusted operating margin was 18.5% compared to 31.6%.

Speaker 3

Volume deleverage and product mix challenges continue to be primary drivers. Adjusted net income for the Q2 of 2023 was $30,200,000 compared to $51,400,000 in the same quarter of 2022, a 41% reduction. Adjusted fully diluted EPS for the Q2 of 2023 was $0.53 compared to $0.91 in the same 2022 period, $38,400,000 representing a 24.2 percent margin. This compares to adjusted EBITDA of $67,700,000 with a 32.6% margin for the Q2 of 2022. Finally, we maintain a strong cash position with cash, Cash equivalents and short term investments, which are GAAP metrics totaling $603,700,000 at June 30, 2023.

Speaker 3

We'll now transition to our 2023 full year guidance. Our GAAP to non GAAP reconciliations for our Unless otherwise noted, all 2023 guidance discussed will be non GAAP. Please also keep in mind that our 2023 guidance may be impacted Our current guidance includes the impacts of the Deflex Biosys acquisition that we announced in April, but excludes potential impact of any additional acquisitions that the company may pursue. Before updating our guidance ranges, I'd like to share more about plans for rebalancing resources, both in areas where Capacity is currently underutilized and also more broadly across the organization. We are taking difficult but necessary steps to protect and preserve our margins.

Speaker 3

We expect that rebalancing actions will set us up for margin improvement in 2024. By our estimates As reflected in our updated GAAP P and L guidance, we expect the charges associated with this rebalancing to be approximately $6,000,000 consisting of severance and related costs, which will be recognized in the second half of twenty twenty three. We also expect to realize approximately 15,000,000 Now for our guidance updates. Based on our current view of market conditions, we are revising our 2023 full year revenue guidance, a GAAP metric to a range of $635,000,000 to $665,000,000 a reduction of $90,000,000 at midpoint compared to our previous guidance. This revised guidance reflects a 17% to 21% decrease in total revenue compared to 2022.

Speaker 3

Our overall revenue guidance includes COVID related revenues of $30,000,000 and includes $5,000,000 of revenue from our FlexBiase's acquisition. Our base business revenue is expected to be in the range of $600,000,000 to $630,000,000 down 5% to 9% year over year compared with our previous expectation to grow base revenue by 4% to 8%. We are revising our 2023 adjusted gross margin guidance to the range of 50% to 51%, a 2 percentage point reduction from our previous guidance of 52% to 53%, driven primarily by lower revenue projections for the year. We are modifying our adjusted operating income guidance to a range of $104,000,000 to $110,000,000 for the year, a reduction of $48,500,000 at midpoint from our May guidance. Our adjusted operating margin guidance Now expected in the range of 16% to 17% for the year compared with our May guidance range of 20.5 to 21.5 percent of revenue.

Speaker 3

Adjusted other income guidance is being increased to $18,000,000 compared to our prior guidance of $14,000,000 and we continue to expect 2023 adjusted income tax expense to be approximately 20 percent of adjusted pre tax income. We are revising our adjusted net income guidance to the range of 98 $102,000,000 a decrease of $36,000,000 at midpoint from our May guidance. We are revising our adjusted EPS guidance to the range of $1.72 to $1.80 per fully diluted share, a reduction of $0.63 from our May guidance. Our adjusted EPS guidance assumed 56,800,000 Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of $141,000,000 to $147,000,000 a reduction of $48,500,000 at midpoint from our prior guidance, with depreciation and intangible amortization expenses expected to be approximately 35.8 and $30,100,000 respectively. Adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be in the range of 21.5 22.5 percent for the year, reflective of the exclusion of fixed depreciation costs from our capacity expansions.

Speaker 3

We expect year over year excuse me, we expect year end cash and cash equivalents, a GAAP metric to be in the range of $610,000,000 to $630,000,000 with $45,000,000 of CapEx investments being fully funded by cash generation from our operations. This revised ending cash This completes our financial report and guidance update. And I will now turn the call back to the operator to open the lines for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Our first question comes from Puneet Souda with Leerink Partners. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, Tony, Dan. Thanks for taking my questions. So first one, if you could maybe step back on the guidance. I think one of Key questions here is, the guidance has been cut a few times and Understand totally that this is an industry wide phenomenon, but you have higher exposure to Phase 1 and 2 trials and there is obviously biotech funding pressures Beyond the destocking, so I think the question is, at this point, is there potential for Further cuts beyond this given the environment where this adequately captures and maybe just Talk to us a little bit about what you see the trough levels there and potential recovery Both on the destocking side and potentially biotech funding, which is I know it's more of an industry phenomena when

Speaker 2

Thanks, Puneet. Maybe I'll start with our guidance cut. So it's down About $90,000,000 from our last guidance. And for us, we felt it was important To derisk the year based on everything we're seeing. And the difference between where we were in May and where we are right now When we were all talking to you in May, we could clearly see that most of the destocking issues that we were dealing with, And I mean it from a Repligen perspective, was really around the CDMOs and the integrators.

Speaker 2

And in Q1, we clearly saw a drop off in orders in China. The revenue in China was absolutely fine in Q1, but it was orders Dropped off significantly in China. But in Q2 and that's continued all the way through July, the orders have come down. So you can clearly see that in our book to bill and it's broadened into pharma. And what we're seeing in pharma are Three things.

Speaker 2

One is burn off of consumables. So there's a destocking, but it's only started maybe it started in Q1 and we It just wasn't visible to us, but definitely visible in terms of our the order strength in Q2. And then there's definitely conservatism across the whole industry in terms of capital spend. So for Any systems, etcetera, it's just taking longer for on the purchase cycle. And then we're seeing project delays.

Speaker 2

Projects are getting delayed 3 months, 6 months, projects that were supposed to be kicking in, in the second half of this year and now slated for Q for early next year. So those things all combined really led us to looking exactly at what we think we And do this year based especially based on the order declines that we saw in Q2, which is what gave us to The $90,000,000 drop. I think the only answer to your question about could there be further cuts, At this stage, we don't think so. But this like last quarter, I said, we would need to see order growth in the second half of the year for us To hit the guidance that we gave you, and we believe that we could do that. This time around, I'm saying that unless there's further declines in ordering In the order pattern, then we're good with the range that we put out there.

Speaker 2

In terms of I know you had a bunch of questions in your in that first question, Puneet, But the early biotech funding, we've looked at that again. It hasn't really changed in terms of impact So Repligen in Q2 versus Q1. And I think pieces where we're encouraged is honestly on the cell and gene therapy side, which is where you would honestly put Biotech funding piece,

Speaker 4

and when

Speaker 2

we look at that customer base, we are seeing sequential growth. But it is driven, I don't want to be clear on this, it is driven by those customers that we were talking about last year that we're scaling. It's not a broad market increase. It's really The customers who are in Phase 2, Phase 3 and going into commercial, that's where we're getting our growth this year. So hopefully that answers the questions, Puneet.

Speaker 4

No, that's super helpful. Thanks for covering those. And last one, if I could ask on, There was an assumption for base business growth of 20%. Is that still accurate for 2024? I know we historically talked about the number and Street is, I believe, near that number too prior to the quarter.

Speaker 4

And maybe just if you could talk a little bit about margins, sort of jump off point with significantly lower margin Right now for 2023. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. On the growth for next year, I think we need to See our 2023 and see exactly where we are at the end of the year before we give a guidance for next year. I think The whole market has honestly changed pretty dramatically over the last 4 or 5 months. So I think it's more prudent for us at this stage To wait until the end of the year and then guide for next year. But I will say that based on our funnel, Right.

Speaker 2

And what we're seeing, we do anticipate order pickup in Q4, which will translate into revenue increase in Q1 of next year. And on the margins, I think maybe I'll hand it over to John to comment on the margin profile. Yes, happy

Speaker 3

to do that. So Puneet, I think the biggest driver here that we're seeing, we've got a $90,000,000 revenue reduction at midpoint. The contribution margin on that, which the piece of cost that goes away when you drop the revenue out is the material cost. So that's flowing through at a very high percentage of margin on that revenue decline. And that's the key driver overall of the overall margin drop expectation for H2.

Speaker 5

Got it. Okay. Thanks guys.

Operator

The next question comes from Jacob Johnson with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Maybe Tony on destocking, you've cut a couple of times This year for a variety of reasons now cutting kind of 13%, 14% this quarter. Is that a good proxy for the destocking headwind You faced in 2020 you expect to face in 2023? And then any kind of comments around Confidence in maybe that being done by the end of this year.

Speaker 6

And then also you had a peer talking about working with their customers to work down inventory. I'm just curious if you're doing any of

Speaker 2

Yes, maybe start with the last piece. I don't think we are Actively working with customers trying to figure out how to work down inventory levels. I think most of our conversation are on the projects that they Are working with us on and the timing of those projects and the product that they need. We absolutely know the customers that have You know, months of inventory that they're working through and we know the areas where that exists And that will work its way through the system. I think the difference, honestly, Jacob, is that I don't see this as just a destocking phenomenon.

Speaker 2

It's more than that. It's destocking And it is much more conservatism in terms of spending patterns, much longer purchase cycles And delays in projects and maybe destocking is 60% of the total Headwind, but 40% is these other factors. And I think that's kind of the difference between where we are today and where we were maybe say 4 months ago. In terms of confidence at the end of the year, You know my view on destocking, while the orders dropped in the second half of last It really wasn't until the beginning of this year that the destocking started to happen. And I fully expect that the majority of Continue to increase and we're working on a lot of large projects that are slated to Close in the Q4, late Q3, early Q4.

Speaker 2

And I think they're all positive signs for us that We will be able to get out of this.

Speaker 6

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe a bigger picture question, Tony. Just Process analytics seemed like a bit of a bright spot this quarter. You talked about kind of integrating C Tech I'm just curious kind of how that's been received by customers and if you're having Conversations and seeing additional opportunities to kind of integrate, Process Analytics further.

Speaker 2

Yes. And as you know, we integrated the Flow technology into our bench top TFFs. And so the response from customers has been incredibly positive. We definitely are gaining momentum And selling more and more units each quarter. So we had a good quarter for systems in Q1 Our 9Q1 and Q2 expect that we'll do more in the second half than we did in the first half based on the pipeline.

Speaker 2

We think it's a natural evolution that we move from bench top to our, let's call it, process scale, production scale Systems and that's our plan, especially with the Artisan portfolio is to continue the integration, which will I would say it will take probably the best part of 12 months to 18 months complete all the systems that we have and upgrade to include in line analytics, but we see that as the future. That's what our customers want. That's what we're going to do. And it's going to be a very good business for us as we move forward. So yes, really happy with the analytics

Operator

The next question comes from Dan Arias with Stifel, please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning, guys. Thanks for the questions. Tony, on China, do your guys on the ground feel like they have a handle On the situation there, it's kind of a tough place to do that in general, much less in the current environment. It sounds like there's multiple Factors that are at play there. So where is the level of understanding on the moving parts?

Speaker 7

And what is the revenue expectation for China at this point for the year?

Speaker 2

Yes. So, no, I do think that our team over there has a good handle on what's happening. And To be honest, it is pretty consistent with what you've heard from other players. So it's everything from Weakness at the CDMO level, right, in China, it's not outside China, but really within China, the CDMOs are The number of projects that are coming through are just not what it was in 2022 2021. I think a lot of the early biotech funding dried up and so those biotech companies were feeding into The Tier 2 CDMOs, so I think that's been a challenge.

Speaker 2

I think the other piece that's going on in China is the Last year was such a start stop year for all companies in China that there was an inadvertent buildup of inventory. So you know how the rest of the industry may have built up excess inventory deliberately. I don't think in China that was actually what Plan was, but because of the way last year played out, there is an excess inventory in China that has to get burnt off. And as I said back in May, we don't expect that China turns until the end of the year. We look at our funnel, we have A number of projects and programs that we like that we're working on, but the level of activity in China right now is much lower than what We were seeing 6 months ago, 9 months ago, a year ago.

Speaker 7

Okay. And then just maybe on the 4Q order improvement that it sounds like you feel pretty good about, I guess. Can you maybe just crystallize for everyone where is the confidence highest Is it the CDMOs just given the trajectory on the way down? Is it that order funnel or that funnel of activity that you talked about being up nicely? What do you feel best about as we sort of push to the end of the year here?

Speaker 7

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. I would say it's the filtration portfolio Because many of the big projects that we're working on fall within that portfolio. So that would be where the confidence is, Dan. And I think when we look at our position in the marketplace, we really Have a great portfolio of products and it's just macro environment that's challenging, challenging for us, Projects are happening. It's just at a much slower pace.

Speaker 2

And based on what we're seeing, we see order pickup in Q4.

Operator

Our next question comes from Matt Larew with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning. Just kind of wanted to follow-up again on the notion of guidance being derisked. And Tony, one thing you cited, the 25% increase in high probability opportunities, maybe just help us understand what exactly that metric means, what it Trended like perhaps earlier in the year. And that anything else that you've been able to do over the past 6 To get better visibility into customer ordering behavior and if there are metrics associated with that visibility, I think that'd be helpful as well.

Speaker 2

Yes. So on the visibility side, I think the way we've organized our commercial team or optimized how we organize commercial This year is definitely helping. So there's a real focus on the opportunities that we know that are out there. And so the conversations are happening with customers and that is what gives us sort of increased confidence on the funnel. When you look at any funnel, right, you've got various probabilities that You have on closing.

Speaker 2

So I think our overall funnel has increased probably we started to see that honestly second half of last year As continued through this year, but it's probably been more on the early opportunities. So maybe less than the 50% probability, but it increased significantly. We're seeing A lot of what was early now move into the what we call greater than 50% funnel and the 25% Increases at the 75% and above. So those are very high probability that they'll close. And we just haven't seen that level of a jump in any other quarter over the last 3 or 4 quarters.

Speaker 2

So we're encouraged by that and we can tap right down into the exact opportunity that that's So we've got to execute, customers have to continue to close out and provide the POs, But there are activities happening that signal orders in picking up at the end of the year in Q4.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then just on the margin side here, thinking about right jumping off point for next year. I think Back half margins based on the new guidance suggests something like high 40s gross margin, low double digits operating margin. Obviously, you're going through some cost actions that I presume will have fuller impact towards the end of the year. But is that a reasonable Starting point at least for sort of first quarter or first half twenty twenty four margins or what are the other moving pieces to help us get a sense for the right jumping off point For margins next year.

Speaker 3

Yes, I think you picked up on that right. As we look into the second half of the year, We expect the margins to dip down here a bit in Q3, start to recover in Q4 with additional volume. And I'll go ahead and throw this out. Just from a kind of revenue cadence perspective, our expectation is probably 45% of the implied midpoint And H2 is going to come in Q3 and around 55% of the revenue will come in Q4 the way we've got it laid out right now. This implies margins are going to dip down more into lower 40s on a gross margin level and in the mid single digits on an Operating margin in Q3 and then they'll rebound up in Q4 to get closer to the midpoints by the end of the year.

Speaker 3

How does that lay us out For 2024, our views are we're kind of rebaselining the margins here with the lower volume here at the end of the year. And our jumping off point, I think a good way to model it right now is to look at the Q4 excuse me, the second half Implied numbers for margins and start to model off that and we think we can drive improvements in margins In 2024 based on that. I mean it's really driven by we're such a volume driven company in the way our cost structure is built up. We're working on obviously taking out variable costs where we can, but it definitely expect margin improvement before.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Rachel Waddendahl with JPMorgan, please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Thanks. Good morning and thank you for taking the questions. So you previously noted that the inventory overhang was Primarily related to CDMO customers, but that has now broadened as you noted that pharma orders declined 17% sequentially. And you talked about some of these dynamics to pharma softness by region and on the longer purchasing and approval times, project push outs, etcetera. So can you just walk us through what are you hearing with your conversations with those customers in terms of will some of these trends improve or really linger into 2020

Speaker 2

So maybe before I answer the second part of the question, just to give people a sense of the pharma situation. So I think everybody should realize like pharma revenue through the first half of the year is actually really consistent with what we saw by quarter last year. So there's really been no change in pharma revenue. But the orders, if you actually start to look at the orders, The orders in Q2 for Pharma was down 25% versus Q2 a year ago and it was down 17% sequentially. And just to give you an idea of how that splits up, we think about a third of the 25% drop year on year is coming from inventory drawdown, which is consumables, about a third is coming from lower CapEx spend and a third is China.

Speaker 2

And if you look at it then sequentially, probably inventory drawdown is probably 40% to 50%, CapEx is probably $10,000,000 to $20,000,000 And then there's some product mix changes where you get big orders in 1 quarter that don't repeat in the following quarter. So overall, when you start to see pharma change by that much in the quarter, it is very It does start to predict what's going to happen with Win Pharma from a revenue point of view in the second half of the year. So to answer your question on the inventory drawdown and what's pharma saying, will it be done by the end of the year? I think pharma has just moved into a more conservative mode, right? And inventory drawdown is just one part of it.

Speaker 2

I think it's the CapEx spend, it's the conservatism delays in projects, but it feels like it's a 2020 3 events, not a 2024 event right now. And when you look at the projects we're working on, we're working on a lot of projects with pharma, some really big projects That will really move the needle for us as we get into Q4 and definitely in 2024.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you for that color.

Speaker 9

And then just a question here on pricing. Obviously, we've been in an inflationary environment here. So can you just Give us an update on your expectations for the updated guide on pricing for this year. And then how are you thinking about that pricing contribution Shifting as we move into 2024, just given on a multiyear stack pricing has been a bigger contributor than historical? Thank you.

Speaker 2

I would say pricing in general is holding to what we guided at the beginning of the year. And I think that John that was about Right around 5%. Around 5%. So we're on track for that. And that's just matching all the inflationary issues that we had to deal with as well.

Speaker 2

So it's covering what we're Paying out to our suppliers on all the components and parts that we buy. I think when you get into 2024 and I don't want to give a very specific 2024, 2025 guide or anything, but I would think that pricing is going to return more To normalize level of price increases in our industry, which is probably going to be in that 2%, 3% per year On average going forward, which is kind of what it's been historical. And it's because I think the inflationary pressures Seem to be subsiding and again everybody in our industry it's not about putting prices up, it's just about covering Some material, so we expect that's going to be more modest price increases in 2024 2025.

Operator

The next question comes from Paul Knight with KeyBanc. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hey, Tony. When we look at Pfizer and Moderna, the vaccine sales are down 70% to 90% here in Q2. I'm guessing it's like that for other treatments related to COVID. How much of a shock factor Do you think farmers are getting from this cliff of COVID? Is that part of you think Their psychology on their spend?

Speaker 2

Yes. I saw the same reports on the Pfizer, Moderna and I don't know if people on the bioprocessing side could predict exactly how much It was going to drop off, but I think everybody knew and realized that Related activity would go way down. And because I think those companies are also sitting on some inventory that they would Bill, it's probably not a total surprise that the numbers are down 70% to 90%. How that impacts pharma In what programs and projects that they do, I don't think I'm close enough to that, but I can tell you that the companies That are worked on COVID vaccines and therapeutics are highly, highly active in other areas. And I haven't seen any change in terms of the programs or projects beyond what I spoke about.

Speaker 2

There's a general level of conservatism and some of the projects are getting Pushed out, but it's across the board. So it's not just the vaccine guys. It's brought across Pharma, so I'm not seeing anything different at the vaccine companies than we were seeing at the other pharma companies.

Speaker 11

Okay. And then regarding China, I understand multinationals operate there. I understand Wuxi is doing its own I was never under the impression that local China companies really had the money For or desire for Western product, I guess there was some demand from Emerging China Biotech, I guess they were becoming what they were becoming buyers of Western Is that a fair kind of read here?

Speaker 2

Yes, I think that's a fair read. I look at what our sales team does in China. It's We definitely sell very broadly into the market and there are a lot of early biotech, CDMOs that are Chinese CDMOs that serve in country, I don't think that's Any difference honestly versus any other country in Asia, whether it's India or Korea, I think there's a lot of sales that go to companies that are making products for in country use. So I think in general though, I think the number of because the Biotech funding has dried up in China and because There's been a big pullback in activity. I think the number of projects hitting the CDMOs has gone down pretty dramatically in the first half of the year.

Speaker 11

And then lastly, Tony, rest of Asia looked pretty good. What do you attribute that to? Is it the Bill Nall, the biotech in Singapore that's continuing to or what do you see in rest of Asia that made things look that were pretty good there?

Speaker 2

And I can only really answer that question from a Repligen perspective because I think our peers probably maybe a little different. But when we look at The other countries in Asia, outside China, it really is a handful of accounts that we sell into. Now we sell into a lot of accounts, but ones that really moved the needle are a handful of accounts. And so we have some nice projects going on at those accounts, which I think is

Operator

The next question comes from Connor McNamara with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Good morning and thanks for taking the questions. First, Tony, just on your commentary on return to order growth in Q4, can you remind us what your order growth was in Q4 last year? And is this a function of comps or is it more of actual activity of pickup in activity that you're seeing in the market?

Speaker 2

Yes. So let me talk a little bit about last year in general, right. So we saw the orders begin to dip down in Not tip down, they dropped down in Q3 last year from where we were in Q2 and Q1. But we were able to hold Orders at almost at the same amount for Q3, Q4, Q1. So if you go back and look at our book to bill, You will see that orders were from a dollar point of view were consistently the same.

Speaker 2

So when you go through 3 quarters and you know that there is A pullback happening in the industry, you start to feel like, hey, look, we've hit a steady state, we need to grow from here. I think what happened in Q2 is we saw further dip. So you go from same orders, not from the same customers, but Same volume orders over 3 quarters in a tough environment and then it drops again in Q2, which was really unexpected. And then that puts you in a different environment. So we were down to 80%.

Speaker 2

I think 0.82% was our book to bill in Q2. So you can see the drop down I think our confidence around Q4 is just based on our funnel and The higher probability or the probability of the projects that we always look at moving through into that higher probability level, which Results in increased orders for us. So it's based on activity, it's based on projects, it's based on programs. That's our view, but we also believe that our it's not going to have a material impact on revenue in Q4, it's going to have more of an impact in Q1.

Speaker 4

Got it. Thanks for that.

Speaker 5

And then just You said you've now derisked your guidance for the year. So how should we be thinking about areas of potential upside for the rest of the year? Would it come from A quicker conversion of that high probability funnel you talked about or potential market share gains that can help you Return to growth faster, is it more a function of just the overall market coming back?

Speaker 2

I think it's a function of the overall market coming back. I honestly in terms of what we've guided to, I don't see upside to the guidance unless there's a remarkable turnaround In the next 3 or 4 months. And we're just not seeing that in Q3. And when you kind of look at our base business, because you kind of have to look at what where Repligen came into '22 and 'twenty three with like we were a much higher percent of what we were doing was COVID related, right. So the impact of COVID on us On a percentage basis, much higher than when you look at our base business.

Speaker 2

In my script, we had 35% to 40% base business growth 2 years in a row and to be down 5% to 9% this year in this environment is actually not a bad result considering How much growth we've seen in our base business over the last few years. So if you just average out the last 3 years including the latest guidance, it's 22%. And I think we were back 3 years ago and said we would grow 22% on average over the next 3 years, everybody would be super happy. So I think that's more a reflection of how good our portfolio is. And it's the it's this macro environment we're all dealing with.

Speaker 2

And back to your to the main question here, I think the upside would come from a faster turnaround in the market, but I don't see I don't honestly see that happening until we get into Q4, which I think will be too late For any revenue upside in 2023.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thanks for that. Appreciate it. Appreciate it.

Operator

Questions. The next question comes from Matt Hewitt with Craig Hallum Capital Group. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Good morning. Just one question from me, and I apologize if I missed this earlier. But is it safe to assume that your confidence regarding the pipeline conversion that's expected to Are much less likely to be canceled or delayed?

Speaker 2

Yes. Great question, Matt. I haven't looked at exactly every single opportunity in that funnel, but many of them are late stage. And I think your analysis is accurate, right? I think there's higher probability that they move forward than get canceled.

Speaker 3

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Lisa Garcia with UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hey guys, thanks for squeezing me in. I guess, I know it's early days, but it would be great To just get a sense of kind of early integration on Flex Biosys and obviously Interesting times in the market, but I guess that can create opportunities. So just given Balance sheet optionality, it would be great to kind of get a sense from you guys kind of how the funnel is looking and kind of get A sense from you guys' M and A appetite and the opportunities in the market at the moment. And I have a quick follow-up.

Speaker 2

Yes. Maybe part of the part, Lisa, I think the M and A activity, I think is, if I look at the first half of this year versus first half of last year, it was pretty dead first half of last year, first half of this year, a lot more activity going on. I would say we continue to be very active in the marketplace. And I think we've shown over the years that we're Kind of selective buyers, so it has to fit with our strategy. It has to strengthen some part of the portfolio that we're focused on.

Speaker 2

We like what we did with Flex earlier in the year. The integration has gone well. We like the fact that we're now in the Bioprocess bag part of the market and we have some big plans on what we want to do over the next 12 months with that portfolio, How we grow what they have, but also how do we expand what they have. So between what we're doing at Flex and what we're doing In our Hopkinson assembly facility, I think that's going to be kind of the drivers of the success of that particular acquisition. So I think the funnel is actually reasonably strong and I don't see us slowing down in terms of M and A Over the next few years.

Speaker 2

So kind of the pace we've done in the past is probably the pace that we'll move forward with.

Speaker 10

Great. And then, great to hear like the unit volume increase at OPUS 15%, I think you said. If you could just give a quick update on kind of how resin availability has been trending relative to expectations for the year? I know that was a little bit of an issue in the beginning of the year. Appreciate that.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think resin availability has steadily improved. We see that From the 2, 3 big suppliers, it's getting better. I think the piece that's Always hard to predict is what percent of orders we get are going to be with resin or without resin. We've clearly driven a lot Of the ordering in North America to just drop ship the resin and since we pulled out We added in our facility in Breda.

Speaker 2

Customers in Europe are Starting to drop ship ore resin to us. But yes, look, we're encouraged by the increase in unit volume that helps us on the margin side.

Speaker 12

And it's a

Speaker 2

resin availability is definitely improving.

Operator

Great. Thanks, guys. The next question comes from Tim Daley with Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Great, thanks. I've just got one here. Tony, you were hesitant to give an update versus 20% previously communicated 24% outlook, wanting to see where this year ends up. I just want to understand the factors behind this hesitancy. So to Rachel's question earlier, you seem to indicate the pharma spend pause dynamic, maybe a 23 event.

Speaker 12

To another question, you suggested the inventory destock will be over this year, comps are getting easier with today's cuts. Just putting it all together, it suggests that the prior guide might at least be a floor here. So long winded way to say, are you waiting to update us on 'twenty four growth To see where the comps end up in 'twenty three or 'twenty four growth, see where the comps end up in 'twenty three or are there other factors that your concern may leak in 24.

Speaker 2

Yes. No, I think that right now given the changes that we saw in Q2 and That was not something that we were factoring in at all. And so the weakness in pharma It is definitely the primary reason why I don't want to comment on 2024 growth until we get closer to the end of the year. We just have to see this year out. It's had so many twists and turns that you just don't I don't think it's prudent right now to start putting a number out there and saying, hey, we think we can do X and Y.

Speaker 2

I think we felt a lot more confident about that a quarter ago Because we knew where the destocking and issues were and it has broadened. So we've got to get through And to a more stable customer base before we start talking about 2024. So it's got nothing to do with the comps. It's got everything to do with market dynamics and how fast the industry now pulls out of what we're dealing with.

Speaker 12

Got it. Thank you for the time.

Speaker 8

No problem.

Operator

The next question comes from Brandon Couillard with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thanks. Good morning. Tony, you called out many campaigns that are being pushed back, call it, 3 or 6 I mean, I imagine there's some normal churn that may be a normal part of the business, but there seems to be more of a consistent trend across your customer bases. Is that Accurate and are these mostly for commercial therapies, I imagine, would make them more material in terms of your revenue impact? Can you just unpack that a little bit?

Speaker 2

I think it's the combination of everything Brandon, right? I think there's probably you could go into any year, right, and find A handful of customers that have delayed projects, but we're seeing longer approval cycles on POs. We're seeing projects that were supposed to happen this year like capital projects where building out facilities coming online that are getting delayed. We've got programs that are getting pushed out by 1 to 2 quarters. Then you got the inventory overhang.

Speaker 2

It's the Combination of all of these things that are all coming together at the same time, where you could obviously handle Some delays at some pharma companies or biotech companies or CDMOs in the past, but when you have it all in one, It just makes it really, really challenging and that's the difference. Okay, that's really helpful. Last one, John, You break out the M and A dollar contribution in 2Q and then what you have penciled in for the full year?

Speaker 3

Yes, we said the M and A would be $5,000,000 for the year For FlexBiases. So we haven't changed that. That's consistent with what we said back in Q2 on the Q2 call on the Q1 call, excuse me.

Speaker 2

Okay. Maybe back to the operator.

Operator

All right. I will this concludes the question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Tony Hunt for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you. So thanks everybody for joining us. We'll be back in a few months with an update on Q3.

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Key Takeaways

  • Repligen reported Q2 total revenue of $159.2 million, down 23% year-over-year, while its base business (ex-COVID/inorganic M&A) declined less than 3% in H1 ’23, reflecting challenging comps after two years of stellar growth.
  • The filtration franchise led declines with base revenue down 20% YoY, whereas analytics, chromatography and proteins drove mid-single to double-digit base growth, and cell & gene therapy revenues rose 7% sequentially.
  • Broadening market headwinds—including CDMO destocking, 25% pharma order declines, longer purchase cycles and project delays—prompted Repligen to cut its 2023 guidance to $635–665 million total sales and a 5–9% base business decline.
  • Management’s three near-term priorities are to optimize resources and control costs for post-COVID volumes, strengthen top-down corporate account programs to shorten sales cycles, and accelerate disruptive new product launches to drive future growth.
  • Despite short-term pressures, Repligen expects Q4 order improvements, margin recovery in 2024, and remains confident in its strategy to outgrow the market with its differentiated bioprocessing portfolio.
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Earnings Conference Call
Repligen Q2 2023
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