Trane Technologies Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 2, 2023

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning. Welcome to the Trane Technologies Q2 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Josh, and I will be your operator for the call. The call will begin in a few moments with the speaker remarks and the Q and A session. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode.

Operator

Thank you. I will now turn the call over to Zach Nagle, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Speaker 1

Thanks, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Trane Technologies' Q2 2023 earnings conference call. This call is being webcast on our website at traintechnologies.com, where you'll find the accompanying presentation. We're also recording and archiving this call on our website. Please go to Slide 2.

Speaker 1

Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts Are considered forward looking statements and are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of federal securities law. Please see our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from anticipated results. This presentation also includes non GAAP measures, We are explaining the financial tables attached to our news release. Joining me on today's call are Dave Ordinary, Chair and CEO And Chris Kyun, Executive Vice President and CFO. With that, please go to Slide 3, and I'll turn the call over to Dave.

Speaker 1

Dave?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Zach, and everyone for joining us on today's call. Let me begin with a few comments on our purpose as a company, To boldly challenge what's possible for a sustainable world. Our purpose is at the heart of our strategy, which is linked to powerful megatrends like climate change. This enables us to drive differentiated financial results and shareholder returns over the long term. The recent news on climate change has been sobering.

Speaker 2

Water temperatures off the Florida coast recently soared to over 100 degrees. We've seen deadly heat waves in parts of the United States, Europe and Asia, in one of the Earth's hottest summers on record. In fact, Scientists say these temperatures are likely the warmest the planet has seen in 120,000 years And have dangerous effects on the environment, the economy and human life. Urgent action is needed Our customers are seeking sustainable solutions And choosing Trane Technologies as their partner in decarbonizing the built environment and the cold chain. We are leading the way with our innovation.

Speaker 2

The end result is long term value creation across the board for our team, our customers, Our shareholders and for the planet. Moving to Slide number 4. Our global team continues to execute at a high level And delivered another quarter of strong performance, showcasing the benefits of our diverse resilient portfolio. Organic revenue was up 11%. Adjusted operating margins expanded 110 basis points And adjusted EPS grew 24%.

Speaker 2

We delivered 30% plus organic leverage across the enterprise And in each segment, led by our commercial HVAC businesses in each region. Our residential HVAC business continued to normalize And was further impacted by a difficult comp versus the Q2 of last year, when revenues were up 30%. Net on a 2 year stack, residential revenues were up mid teens in Q2. Importantly, we're delivering strong results While increasing business reinvestments, we're accelerating high ROI projects in focused areas, including digital, electrification and factory automation. These investments are flowing through our segment results As well as through corporate expenses for enterprise wide initiatives to drive innovation, growth and productivity well into the future.

Speaker 2

Bookings remained robust after reaching unprecedented levels in 2021 with nearly 30% bookings growth. In 2021, bookings exceeded revenue by approximately $2,700,000,000 nearly doubling our backlog in a single year to 5,400,000,000 During 2022, bookings grew more modestly, up 5%. However, the sharp increase And absolute bookings in 2021 translated 5% bookings growth in 2022 into another 27% increase in backlog. Net, 2021 2022 are both important drivers of our strong backlog position of $7,000,000,000 at the end of the second quarter, Which is roughly 2.5 times historical levels. We've been encouraging investors to look at absolute booking levels And backlog in addition to growth rates to gain a more complete understanding of the strength of our business.

Speaker 2

Further, when looking at growth rates for Trane Technologies, It's important to consider a 3 year stack that includes 2021 for the reasons discussed. Commercial HVAC continues to be a standout across our segments globally. In the Q2, commercial HVAC bookings were up nearly 40% in each region on a 3 year stack, supporting revenue growth of high teens in both the Americas and EMEA and 45% in Asia. Additionally, our commercial HVAC book to bill ratios were effectively 100% or higher in each region. Our end markets continue to be healthy overall and we believe we are well positioned for strong growth in 2023.

Speaker 2

While it's premature to dial in an outlook for 2024, continued high levels of demand and our extremely strong backlog position, Particularly across our commercial HVAC businesses globally puts us in a strong position to drive growth in 2024 as well. We expect to enter 2024 with elevated backlog of more than 6,000,000,000 To put that in perspective, backlog has historically represented approximately 20% of the next year's revenue. It's also worth noting that $2,000,000,000 of our $7,000,000,000 in current backlog is for equipment to be delivered in 2024. This is approximately 5 times the level of backlog for the next fiscal year versus historical trends at the end of the second quarter. Our strong results through the first half combined with healthy end markets and backlog that remains 2.5 times norms positions us well to raise our full year 2023 guidance.

Speaker 2

Chris will discuss in more detail later in our prepared remarks. Please go to Slide number 5. As we discussed, bookings and revenue growth were broad based globally, With particular strength in our commercial HVAC businesses in all regions, Enterprise and Americas bookings were down 5% 8%, respectively, Largely due to softness in our Americas residential business, which was down approximately 20% in the quarter, as that business continues to normalize. Excluding the impact of residential bookings decline, Enterprise bookings were up 1% and Americas bookings were down low single digits. In our Americas segment, commercial HVAC bookings were down mid single digits against high teens growth comp in the prior year.

Speaker 2

Absolute bookings remained robust with growth of approximately 40% on a 3 year stack. Commercial HVAC revenues were up high teens in the quarter with strong growth in both equipment and services. Even with strong revenue growth, the book to bill ratio was approximately 100%. Commercial HVAC backlog remains Highly elevated at 3 times historical levels. Residential HVAC revenues were down as expected as the business continues to normalize.

Speaker 2

Revenues were down low teens. However, it's important to note that the team delivered leading revenue growth of 30% in the Q2 of 2022. On a 2 year stack, the business was up mid teens. In our transport refrigeration business, we delivered strong bookings and revenue growth, Up approximately 40% 30%, respectively. Revenue strength was broad based in North America with the big three truck, Trailer and APUs, up approximately 50%.

Speaker 2

In our EMEA segment, our commercial HVAC business delivered another strong quarter. Bookings were up mid single digits on top of low teens growth comp in the prior year. Revenues were up high teens With strength in both equipment and services, up mid-20s and high single digits, respectively. Our transport refrigeration business is executing well in a modestly down market. Expect the EMEA weighted average transport markets to be down low single digits to mid single digits in 2023, and for our Thermal King business to outperform, and to be relatively flat for the year.

Speaker 2

With revenue growth of mid single digits in Q1 and revenues down low single digits in Q2, we're well positioned to hit this target for the full year. In our Asia Pacific segment, the team delivered strong results with bookings up mid single digits versus bookings up mid teens in the prior year. Revenues were very strong, up 41%. China results were robust with bookings and revenues up 20% 40%, respectively. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Chris.

Speaker 2

Chris? Thanks, Dave. Please turn to Slide number 6. We delivered strong revenue growth, margin expansion and EPS growth again in the Q2. Organic revenues were up 11%, Adjusted EBITDA margins were up 100 basis points and adjusted EPS was up 24%.

Speaker 2

At an enterprise level, We delivered strong organic revenue growth in both equipment and services, up low teens and high single digits respectively. Our high performance flywheel continues to pay dividends with relentless investments in innovation driving strong top line growth, margin expansion, EPS growth And powerful free cash flow. Please turn to Slide number 7. We've discussed the key revenue dynamics for the Q2, so I'll focus my comments on margins. We delivered strong margin expansion in each of our business segments and have highlighted the key margin drivers on the right side of the page.

Speaker 2

In each of our regions, as the supply chain continues to improve, we're driving strong leverage on volume growth along with strong price realization In the near term, challenges continue in pockets of our business with associated costs, And we are managing these well across our segments as reflected in our results. As an enterprise, we delivered about 6 points of volume And about 5 points of price in the quarter, which was slightly ahead of our expectations on both price and volume. Volume growth was robust in our commercial HVAC businesses, accompanied by strong organic leverage in excess of 30% in each region. Americas performance was led by strength in commercial HVAC And aided by robust growth in our Americas transport refrigeration business, more than offsetting continued normalization of our residential business. EMEA delivered strong incrementals in margins after accounting for approximately 9 points of M and A growth in the quarter, Which negatively impacted reported leverage given year 1 integration costs.

Speaker 2

As we discussed previously, We've earmarked 70 basis points for incremental business reinvestment in 2023, which is about 30 basis points higher than normal, To accelerate the timing of key projects, this is included in our guidance and reflected in segment margins and partially in corporate expenses each quarter. Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Dave. Thanks, Chris. Please turn to Slide number 8. Looking forward, we see continued strong underlying demand We're sustainable solutions well into the future.

Speaker 2

We see the stacking effect of policy and regulatory changes that play to our unique strengths As a leading climate innovator, as tailwinds that are either early to mid innings or future multi year opportunities. The pace of these tailwinds has only accelerated in recent years. And with the realities of climate change all around us, It's likely we'll see this pace continue. The tailwinds impact all of our businesses, as 100% of our portfolio is focused on In our Americas segment, our overall outlook is relatively unchanged. We see commercial strength continuing to outweigh impacts from ongoing normalization of our residential business.

Speaker 2

We expect residential to continue to normalize through Q3, but to improve from Q2, and we expect the normalization process to be complete in 2023. Commercial faces tough comps in the second half of the year with less contribution from price. So we'd expect growth rates to remain strong, but moderate from the first half of twenty twenty three. There is no change to our transport refrigeration outlook overall. ACT has modestly lowered their forecast for 2023 from flattish to decline of low single digits, largely related to trucking OEM build constraints.

Speaker 2

We expect our Thermal King business in the Americas to outperform with low to mid single digit growth for the year. One additional call out is related to the timing of our revenues in our Thermal King business. In the first half of the year, Thermal King delivered 20% growth, outpacing the North America transport markets, which were flat overall. A portion of that outgrowth was driven by timing of customer deliveries Committed in the first half versus the second half of the year. Additionally, Thermal King delivered extremely strong results in Q3 of 2022, up 60%.

Speaker 2

Given this difficult comp and the timing dynamics between the first half and the second half, we expect our Thermal King business to be down approximately 10% in the third In our EMEA segment, the 2nd quarter was strong, and our outlook for the full year is also unchanged. Like the Americas, commercial HVAC faces tough comps with less contribution from price in the second half of the year. So we would expect growth rates to moderate. Our Thermal King business in EMEA is unchanged. The forecast for the overall market calls for a low Single digit to mid single digit decline, and we expect our Thermal King business to be flattish.

Speaker 2

Turning to Asia Sivic, our outlook for the region is largely unchanged, with strength continuing in key verticals as highlighted. Our team delivered a better than expected second quarter Against a relatively soft comp from the prior year given COVID-nineteen lockdowns in China. The strong Q2 results pulled in a modest amount of revenue from the 3rd quarter based on timing of customer deliveries. Overall, The year is shaping up as expected with a solid growth outlook. Now, I'd like to turn the call back over to Chris.

Speaker 2

Chris? Thanks, Dave. Please turn to Slide number 9. As Dave highlighted at the beginning of the call, we're midway through the year with strong results, New record backlog and good visibility into the balance of the year. All in, we're confident in raising our full year revenue and EPS guidance for 2023.

Speaker 2

We're raising our full year organic revenue growth guidance to approximately 8%, up from our prior guidance range of 7% to 8%, Reflecting strong results in the first half and improving visibility into the balance of the year across the portfolio. Including M and A, reported revenues are expected to be up approximately 10%. We're raising and tightening our EPS guidance To a range of $8.80 to $8.90 up from a range of $8.30 to $8.50 We're up $0.45 at the midpoint. Our new adjusted EPS guidance indicates earnings growth of 20% to 21% in 2023. Importantly, we continue to expect to generate powerful free cash flow of equal to or greater than 100% of adjusted net earnings We're approximately $2,000,000,000 We're raising our organic leverage guidance to 30% plus, up from 25% plus As we expect the strength we've delivered in the first half of the year to continue in the second half.

Speaker 2

We also believe it's constructed to give you Color around our expectations for the Q3 to assist with your modeling. We expect organic revenues of approximately 7% in the 3rd quarter With strong 30 percent plus organic leverage. We also expect approximately 3 points of M and A in the 3rd and 4th quarters. We closed on 2 acquisitions in the 2nd quarter, so our expected M and A contribution in the 3rd and 4th quarters is a bit higher than it is for the first half and for the full year. Please see Slide 18 for additional information that may assist with your models.

Speaker 2

Please go to Slide 10. We remain on track to deliver $300,000,000 of run rate savings from business transformation by 2023. Importantly, we continue to invest these cost savings And high ROI projects to further fuel innovation, growth and productivity. Our continuous improvement mindset is an integral part of our business operating system And it's designed to drive gross productivity each year to offset other inflation. While it's been difficult to realize meaningful levels of productivity in recent years, Given the supply chain and other macro challenges, productivity has been improving as supply chains recover.

Speaker 2

This is reflected in our strong first half results And our updated 2023 organic leverage target of 30% plus. Please go to Slide number 11. We remain committed to our balanced capital allocation strategy, focused on consistently deploying excess cash to opportunities with the highest return for shareholders. First, we continue to strengthen our core business through relentless business reinvestment. 2nd, We're committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet that provides us with continued optionality as our markets evolve.

Speaker 2

3rd, We expect to consistently deploy 100% of excess cash over time. Our balanced approach includes strategic M and A It further improves long term shareholder returns and share repurchases as stock trades below our calculated intrinsic value. Please turn to Slide number 12 and I'll provide an update on our capital deployment for 2023. Year to date, we've deployed $1,200,000,000 in cash With $341,000,000 to dividends, dollars 535,000,000 to M and A and $300,000,000 to share repurchases, We have $2,900,000,000 remaining under the current share repurchase authorization, and our shares remain attractive, trading below our calculated intrinsic value. Our M and A pipeline remains active and we have deployed $535,000,000 year to date for bolt on leading technology acquisitions and equity investments.

Speaker 2

During Q2, we acquired a leading industrial process cooling technology company in EMEA and a precision temperature controlled cooling company In the life sciences vertical in the Americas. All in, we're on track to deploy approximately $2,500,000,000 in cash in 2023. Our strong free cash flow, liquidity and balance sheet continue to give us excellent capital allocation optionality moving forward. Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Dave. Dave?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Chris. Please go to Slide number 14. Today, I'll take just a minute to provide an update On the transport refrigeration markets, as we know, this is a topic of interest for investors. The key takeaway is that while There has been a modest movement in the ACT North America forecast from flattish to down low single digits for 2023. We're not seeing material changes That would impact our full year outlook given our strong backlog and bookings expectations.

Speaker 2

Overall, we expect our Thermal King business in the Americas To be up low to mid single digits in 2023, which reflects several points of market outgrowth. Our EMEA Thermal King outlook is also unchanged. The overall EMEA transport refrigeration market is expected to be down Low to mid single digits. We expect to outperform end markets and to be roughly flat for 2023. In both segments, we are on pace to achieve these targets.

Speaker 2

Please go to Slide number 15. ATC continues to provide long term forecast for refrigerated trailers, and they are projecting strong demand through 2028 After low single digit dips in 2023 2024. The data supports the view we've been highlighting for some time now That this is a strong mid-forty thousand unit market, plus or minus a few percentage points. Please go to slide number 16. In summary, we are positioned to outperform over the long term.

Speaker 2

We are proud to have recently been recognized by Fast Company has one of the best workplaces for innovators and also certified as a great place to work for the 3rd consecutive year. It's our culture and our people that fuel our innovation and fulfill on our purpose each and every day. Our strong second quarter performance, resilient portfolio and tremendous backlog gives us confidence in again raising our full year revenues EPS guidance and reaffirming our full year free cash flow conversion guidance. We believe we have the right strategy, the best team And a solid foundation in place to deliver strong performance in 2023 and differentiated long term shareholder returns. And now, we'd be happy to take your questions.

Speaker 2

Operator?

Operator

Our first question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning everyone.

Speaker 2

Hey, Andy. How are you doing? Good morning.

Speaker 3

Good. How are you? So Dave or Chris, you delivered 30% leverage in Q2 Expecting 30% for the year, which obviously is above your usual 25% plus guide. The biggest reason that you're getting Is it that you're getting more than 20 to 30 basis points of price versus cost in the quarter and for the year? And you mentioned higher than usual investments this year as well as So could 30% really be the new 25% potentially as you go into 24% over the longer term in terms of incremental margin?

Speaker 2

Andy, it's Chris. Thanks for the question. Look, we're proud where we've delivered 30% organic leverage through the first half of the year and it's giving us A lot of confidence to be 30% or greater in 2023. Look, we're leveraging all parts of the P and L. Price cost is coming in better than expected.

Speaker 2

We typically target 20 to 30 basis points of price cost spread. We're going to do better than that this year. We are seeing a recovery of the supply chain. It is driving improved productivity, less inefficiencies in our plants. And with that higher volume growth and the fewer inefficiencies, we're really getting some nice strong incrementals.

Speaker 2

We're really seeing as a dovetail here between price Cost contribution, which will normalize in the second half of the year, we're seeing productivity improving with that improved supply chain, And ultimately, like I said, driving those higher volumes. We're continuing to invest incrementally. We're still targeting 60 to 70 basis points Incremental investment, call it 30 to 40 basis points above normal, and we really like that formula. So really it's all parts of the P and L that are working and giving Confidence on the 30% plus, Andy, for this year. On your question longer term, we do like the model at 25% plus Organic leverage into the future, we like that optionality that it gives us to keep reinvesting into the business.

Speaker 2

But as we go into each and every year, we'll kind of call it as we see it at that time. We do like that long term target.

Speaker 3

Well, I tried, Chris. Thanks for that. And then, Dave, can you give us more color into how you're thinking about commercial HVAC markets in the Americas? You talked about good 3 year stack. We know there are tough comps.

Speaker 3

Maybe you could give us your thoughts on book to bill going forward Are there any markets that you would term as slowing and then you kept the $6,000,000,000 overall minimum backlog for the company. Two quarters behind you, would you say the chances are higher than you'd end the year closer to 7 than 6? Any thoughts around for that minimum?

Speaker 2

Okay. That's a long question, Harry. I'll try to remember it all. But as we said, I think it's going to be $6,000,000,000 north of $6,000,000,000 for the year. I'll start there.

Speaker 2

Look, I'm proud of what the team has been able to deliver. If you look at the revenue growth for commercial HVAC in the Q2, it was high teens. And despite that high revenue growth, our book to bill was approximately 100%. So you could just see the absolute bookings numbers are just Very, very strong. If you look at where the strength is coming from, it's really broad based across several verticals.

Speaker 2

So think of data centers, think of high-tech, Think of healthcare, think of ESSER funding in the education vertical, all really driving a lot of growth for us In our commercial HVAC business and that team continues to execute at a very, very high level. We're seeing we're starting to see some of the mega Projects now really come in, and our team is just doing a great job of triaging how we call on those customers. This is where A direct sales force, Andy, I know you and I have talked about this before, it's really a competitive advantage and it's a global direct sales force. We recently were working with a customer in Texas and on a semiconductor plant. And just to give you some of the complexity, these are complex projects, but here's a project where the owner was located in South Korea.

Speaker 2

The engineer was located in Portland, Oregon. The general contractor was also out of South Korea. The Mechanical was located in Texas and here our team Triage has direct contact with all of those influencers And really allows us to create a differentiated value proposition for the customers. So short answer is we continue to see lots of nice growth.

Speaker 3

Very helpful, Dave. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hi, good morning. So it sounds like slightly better perhaps Commercial HVAC sales outlook unchanged in transport largely. And then resi HVAC maybe Slightly worse. So just wanted to sort of ask you on that last piece. Is the right way to think about that, that you had sort of volumes down high teens in the second quarter That narrows in Q3 and then you're sort of flat to modestly down in the Q4.

Speaker 4

Is that the way to think about that Resi market and any thoughts on the sort of inventory levels sitting out there for you?

Speaker 2

Hey, Joe. Hey, Don. This is Dave. I'll start. Look, I think I'll go back to a year ago, okay?

Speaker 2

And The Q2 of 2022, our revenue growth in the resi business was 30%. I don't remember the exact Market number, but I believe it was up in the teens. So we had a lot of growth there in the Q2. Obviously, the Q2 of this year, we're down in the mid teens. If you look at it on a 2 year comp, you'd say we're still up in the mid teens.

Speaker 2

So, as far as inventory goes in the channel, look, we're normalizing in 2023 in our res business. And it's we think that normalization process is going to continue in the back half of the year. We're calling residential to be down high single digits on a basis for the year. We think the 3rd quarter will be better than the 2nd quarter, but there's still going to be some normalization that has to occur in that business. If you look a little bit forward into 2024, we I think the normalization process, at least from an inventory standpoint, will be behind us in 2023.

Speaker 2

A little early to Call what 2024 will be. However, we do expect some tailwinds coming in from policy, specifically around IRA. Don't can't size that yet because the rules are still a little unclear on IRA, but we do believe it will be a tailwind for our businesses in both the residential And in commercial. Chris, anything you want to add? Going back to Q2, Q3 last year, I think we felt like we led in Price over 2021 2022, so that is a part of the reason on the tough comp.

Speaker 2

And to Dave's guidance on the full year, revenues down mid single digits, Units down high singles, we've built into our guide plus or minus revenues down mid singles. We feel like that's part of our guidance that we've updated here on top line revenue growth And earnings per share.

Speaker 4

That's great. Thank you. And then just my second question on The backlog outlook, maybe to ask it slightly different way from the prior question, but pre COVID, I think the backlog to sales coverage was 20%. Last 18 months, it's run at sort of 40% plus. So is the sort of the broad idea here that, That coverage shrinks slowly but surely, but ends up at a place well above where you were Pre COVID, is that how we should sort of think about the backlog?

Speaker 4

And so your commercial HVAC orders therefore don't see a big Drop from current levels.

Speaker 2

Yes, Julien, it's Chris, I'll start. I think about the backlog at the end of December to now at the end of The Q2 backlog is up about $100,000,000 but you're seeing residential execute through its normalization, Thermo King executing through its backlog and actually commercial HVAC is up from even 6 months ago. So we just continue to see very strong Strength there. Our view is we're going to be greater than $6,000,000,000 going into the end of 2023. It's going to set us up very well healthy revenue growth in 2024 and I think it will continue to be a high grade problem we're going to have for a little bit of time to come.

Speaker 2

The backlog will normalize over time. We're just not seeing very much of that happening this year. In Dave's comments, dollars 2,000,000,000 of the Current backlog here at the end of the second quarter is already built for 2024 and that's 5 times the normal level we'd have here at the end of the second quarter. So we're getting a lot of visibility into next year already. And as you mentioned, a normal percentage of the next 12 month of revenue and backlog is 20%.

Speaker 2

Dave won't let me commit to $30,000,000,000 of revenue next year if we end the year at $6,000,000,000 of backlog, but It will normalize to your point, Julien. It's just going to take some time, but we're still seeing some very strong strength in commercial HVAC right now.

Speaker 4

That's great. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Julian. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski With Morgan Stanley, your line is open.

Speaker 2

Hi, good morning guys. Hey, Josh. How are you doing? Good morning.

Speaker 5

I'm well, thanks. Dave, you mentioned ESSER and IRA a couple of times, IRA specifically having a hard time quantifying just yet. But Maybe thinking about how those 2 maybe intersect and then diverge, where are we in sort of the Total ESSER spending, whether it's orders or shipments? And then do you feel like IRA will be similar size, Large or smaller, any way you can kind of dimensionalize those two things as we're maybe maturing in 1 and entering the other?

Speaker 2

Yes. We'll start with Essar. I think If you look at it from a revenue standpoint, I'd say it's middle innings. If you look at it from an order standpoint, it's obviously a little bit ahead of that because we have Orders in our backlog for this. Our team has just done a great job there working with the school systems Cross the country and really helping them help them increase the ability for them to have a safe environment for the children that are learning there.

Speaker 2

And it really started I think you heard me say this before. It started when we were doing indoor air qualities. We created roadmaps, and we're really executing to that. So Revenue standpoint, think of it mid single digits. IRA, it's all in front of us, okay?

Speaker 2

It's going to be a 2024 tailwind. Very difficult to size right now because it's going to be each state may have a different set of standards, And we're trying to understand all those different standards now. It will be a tailwind. We're just trying to size it. With the breadth of our portfolio, Regardless of how the final rules are written, we'll have a product that will be part of a solution for our customer.

Speaker 2

And I know we tend to want to think of IRA in the residential space, and it will certainly be a tailwind there. It's also going to Be a tailwind for our commercial business. And so we're working both fronts of it. And stay tuned. And as we learn more, We'll tell others.

Speaker 5

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just on the backlog, if I recall correctly, You guys don't count service in that reported backlog number. If that's correct, maybe give us some context for how Service backlogs look if you had to parse them out that way and how much kind of extra visibility you have on that front?

Speaker 2

You're correct. It doesn't provide any service. We don't include that in our backlog. Difficult to say. Service is a first of all, our service business is a great business, okay?

Speaker 2

It was up again high single digits in the Q2. Chris, I think we're now I think I could say 6 years now where we have Compound annual growth rate of high single digits across the globe, okay. So this is a very strong business and that's key to our strategy and really allows us to Be tethered to our customers for the life of our products. We don't it's difficult to ascertain a backlog because if you start thinking of multi year service It would just really be difficult to say if it's a 3 year service agreement. A lot of times, we like to Add things to service agreements, so it'd be hard to quantify that number.

Speaker 2

Understood. Appreciate the detail, guys. Thanks, Josh.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS, your line is open.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Obviously, a lot of focus on orders. And with that, I wanted to follow-up on the Your commentary around the U. S. Mega projects that we're seeing.

Speaker 6

Can you just maybe talk a little bit about how these projects Hello, into orders for train and then ultimately revenue for train, just to kind of get a sense for what that lag could be? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes, Chris, good question. It's we have very part of our operating system is a very detailed process that we follow. So, we start all the way in the planning phase. We then move to permitting. We then go to engineering, we then go to groundbreaking and site prep, then through construction.

Speaker 2

So it's a very detailed Approach you need to follow and the earlier you're involved, the more value you're going to create for the customer. As far as the timing on these, it depends on the type of project, okay? If it's a semiconductor plant, That process could take 3.5, 4 years from planning all the way through completion. Think about HVAC equipment probably being installed and operating maybe 9 to 12 months before operation of The facility, so you can start to back that up as to when you start to see orders. That could be it's a bit different on a battery plant, a little bit shorter duration.

Speaker 2

But again, it's really being involved early in the planning phase and then all through the process. And again, These are very complex projects. So, you often have influencers in different parts of the globe that you need to have relationships with And be able to call on.

Speaker 6

Thank you. I appreciate that. Then if I could follow-up on data center, another big focus In the market right now, I mean it's a vertical that the company has always done well in. Can you maybe talk about How activity is trending here? Is the business seeing any impact from AI investment Into data centers, is that still on the horizon?

Speaker 6

Any color outlook there would be helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Chris, well, thanks for the question, Chris. Yes, it is a vertical that we've been strong in For a long time, okay. And the answer on AI and the new GPU chip That's now going to be used with AR predominantly with AI, that's a graphic process unit. These units produce a lot more heat.

Speaker 2

So think of a conventional CPU or central processing unit versus a GPU graphics Processing that throws off about 3 times the amount of heat versus what we've seen in the past. So, if you take that and you Think about a data center, the cooling loads within data centers are going to have to change. And we're working with a lot of data center customers Because we have a lot of really neat solutions around these high heat applications. So it's definitely going to have an impact on the data centers of tomorrow, how they're being Structed how they're being planned, and I would tell you that our teams are working very closely with our customers And developing really creative solutions.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Appreciate that.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning guys.

Speaker 2

Hey, Joe. Good morning.

Speaker 7

Hey, Chris, I know that you don't want to give, I guess, maybe too many details on just price cost. But following up on Andy's question from earlier, I'm just curious, like the benefit that you got in 2Q, are you Expecting that benefit to be fairly consistent through the remainder of the year or is it kind of like the biggest benefit you'll see in 2023? And then as you kind of think about the transformational cost outs beyond this year, I'm just curious like what's in store beyond 2023?

Speaker 2

Yes, Joe. We did see price of around 5 points in the second quarter. We do expect that to moderate Into the second half of the year, if I think about Q3 and Q4 of 2022, we delivered over 10 points of price in the second half of last So we do expect that to moderate. As I think about the full year, our 8% organic revenue growth guide, we still see a bias towards

Speaker 8

A little

Speaker 2

bit more volume growth and price. So that price contribution will moderate, still be above The normal levels, let's say, a price pre pandemic and pre this inflation, but this is where that dovetail with productivity, I think, is Another way for us to fully leverage the P and L, as the supply chain continues to get better, we had 6 points of volume growth in The quarter and we're expecting strong volumes in the second half. We're seeing better productivity in the plants. And to your second question, There's a lot of lost productivity for us to recapture over the last couple of years of these supply chain constraints. That I think is the next layer of opportunity for the company as we're A, well on track to deliver the $300,000,000 of savings from transformation.

Speaker 2

And then, A, B, we're always looking to make improvements in our business, Leverage our business operating system to drive efficiencies and offset other inflation of productivity, but there's a productivity recapture here That I think is a tailwind for the company and gives us confidence that 25% or greater organic leverage target is something we can achieve over time.

Speaker 7

Yes, that makes a lot of sense. It's been great to hear, Chris. Maybe one quick follow-up for Dave. I'm curious, this is much broader question around the labor markets and then kind of the tightness we've seen over the last couple of years. I'm just curious, How is that kind of impacting some of the projects actually getting completed and whether it's actually Elongating the timelines of some of these projects, I know that you mentioned earlier that we're probably halfway through the ESSER funding coming through In the P and L, but I'm just curious, like what are you seeing in terms of construction projects and labor tightness today?

Speaker 2

Yes. I'll answer the question 2 ways, Joe. 1 is from a on the commercial side, so construction projects, We've seen some delays, but nothing that I would call. I think those were those have improved from what we've seen in the past. I wouldn't say that's something that's We're seeing some projects push, but not a lot.

Speaker 2

So that's not a major problem. I think from an internal source of our direct labor, We've done a lot of work with developing programs to really apprenticeship programs to really grow talent and to give Opportunities to people to learn new skills. We've done a lot with tuition advancement programs So that we could deliver at a grassroots level the talent not only for today, but also for the future. We've had a lot of success with that. It's I was out in La Crosse, Wisconsin a couple of weeks ago, and it was just refreshing to see the apprenticeship labs we have out there and Teaching individuals that we're not experts in welding become experts in welding.

Speaker 2

And it's a great Job, it's a great living that these individuals can have with Trane Technology and there's great advancement. So, Overall, we're okay.

Speaker 7

Sounds good. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Joe.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 2

Hey, Steve. How are you doing? Good morning.

Speaker 9

Not too bad. Can you just give the split between light commercial and

Speaker 1

applied in that equipment number?

Speaker 9

Yes. I think you're meant number? Yes. Equipment sales number or bookings, either one?

Speaker 2

Yes. In the Americas, our revenue was very Strong in equipment. It was up over 30%. Applied was a bit stronger than unitary, but both were strong.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. And then just on resi, the guidance this year, so I think your units Are down like low double so far first half maybe something like that. It's hard to tell how much price you're getting there. You're guiding for, I guess, for the year a high single digit decline. Is that just the comps in the second half?

Speaker 9

And then maybe just some color on

Speaker 2

think sequential improvement we're expecting from Q2 to Q3, the delayed start to the cooling season that's fully in force at this point. So, we see that sequential improvement into the second half. The comps get, a little bit easier as you go into the second half of the year. As Dave mentioned, 30% growth in Q2 a year ago, it was mid teens growth in Q3 and then flattish in Q4. So, we just see a little bit easier comps in the second half of the year for resi than where they were in the first half of twenty twenty two.

Speaker 2

But Have a lot of confidence that we think we're calling the units down high single digits for the year, revenues down probably around mid singles. And again, plus or minus, Yes, we've got that in our guide for the full year outlook.

Speaker 9

And is there any difference between the sell in and sell through your independent distribution versus your captive in the quarter?

Speaker 2

Yes, a bit like our revenue was down in the mid teens, our sell through was down in the mid single digits. So the inventory adjustment happened in the Q2, Steve. We just think more of it will happen in the Q3 as well.

Speaker 9

Yes, makes some sense. All right. Thanks guys.

Speaker 2

Okay. Yes, Steve, one more thing on price. Just, I think we were trying to dial in price on the first half. We're not getting the Strong levels of prices you may think we're getting in the first half. It is less than 5% for the first half and it's going to get lower in the second half for resi.

Speaker 2

That's just really a strong, very strong comp against where we led with price in 2021 2022. We're just seeing that normalize here In the business. So hopefully that helps clarify a couple of things.

Speaker 9

Yes, great. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Hey, thanks. Good morning all.

Speaker 2

Hey, Jeff. How are you doing?

Speaker 10

I'm doing really well. Thanks. Hope you are too. Hey, Dave. I wonder if you could just give us your thoughts on the refrigerant transition in 2025 for resi And whether that does in fact cause any sort of pre buy or channel distortions in 2024?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, there is a refrigerant change that will happen in 2025, moving away from 4 10. Look, we're ready for it. I'll start with the engineering side of it. We're ready for it.

Speaker 2

We've been we worked with next generation refrigerants for a while. So this Right up our alley, and the team has done a great job preparing us. We're also preparing our manufacturing locations as we speak to be ready for it. The new refrigerant is classified as slightly flammable. So you have different procedures as to how you handle the refrigerant.

Speaker 2

But we'll be ready for it. We're not concerned about that. As far as a pre buy goes, Jeff, I the product can be more expensive, yes, because It's a what they call a 2 L refrigerant, slightly flammable. You will have additional sensors on the equipment, so the cost will be higher. But there's also going to be a limit on the sell through.

Speaker 2

So if you had a if you were trying to Create a pre buy, you would have to sell through that inventory. The way it's written right now is within 12 months or it'd be stranded inventory. So I do not anticipate that we're going to see a large pre buy at this time. We'll see how it plays out.

Speaker 10

Great. Understand. And then, it looks and feels like M and A is picking up a little bit, select Kind of technology bolt ons and the like, is that the playbook going forward? Do you see the prospect for larger things? Are there larger things in the pipeline, Whether or not they may be actionable or not?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, as you could imagine, being a global HVACR player, we get to see a lot of different opportunities. We like these technology acquisitions. We've been very successful We acquired MTA, great industrial process cooling technology. We'll be able to scale that.

Speaker 2

It's predominantly in Europe. We'll be able to scale it in our channels. We also acquired Helmer in the 2nd quarter. Think of that in the life science space. Think about it as at the storage capability, but also in the processing capability.

Speaker 2

So again, a nice acquisition that we'll be able to scale with our channels. We like this technology. We've been very good at Taking these technology companies with great products and bolting them on to our operations and with our strong channel, We've been able to create a lot of value for our shareholders. Great. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sure, John.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the question. So I want to go back to margins.

Speaker 11

Hi, Dave.

Speaker 8

I want to go back to margins. Obviously, the improving organic incrementals. So I'm hearing better Productivity at the factory, obviously price cost is a nice tailwind. I'm just curious, how do margins and backlog look generally Compared to what we're converting now, do we have better backlog margins to come through over the next year or so? And then on the investment spending, I think we had slight back end loading on the investment spending this year.

Speaker 8

Is there anything on the timing of investment spending we need to factor into our models?

Speaker 2

Hey Nigel, it's Chris. I'll start. We've been happy with the margins and backlog. Obviously, our backlog is more focused on equipment than it is Service, but we're happy with the margins and the backlog gives us confidence on the 30% plus leverage for the year. We're just starting to build some for 2024.

Speaker 2

So we'll comment more on that as we get to guiding for 2024. But the team's just in an outstanding job several years now, making sure that we're embedding inflation and expectations around that and making sure that we're getting price. And it's a lot easier. As Dave reminds me all the time, it's a lot easier to get pricing, you got innovative products out there and you're talking to the customer about An improved solution from what they previously have. All that is reflected in our higher organic leverage guide for the year And we'll kind of update as we go through the end of this year getting ready for 2024.

Speaker 2

On the investments, yes, we're still targeting, call it, 70 basis Think of this as investments in our electrification portfolio across our product lines and Electrifying the portfolio, investments in the digital strategy, the connectedness back to customers, the previous question on AI, We have over 36,000 connected buildings, over a 1000000 pieces of connected assets. This is an area that we're continuing to invest And we're really pleased with that progress in investments so far this year. A third area of investments for us would be around automation and investing in our own factories. This is Starting to see some early results with better productivity as well. So the pipeline is strong on the investments.

Speaker 2

We're continuing to make sure we can accelerate them where we can. And just gives us a lot of encouragement that's going to drive results in the future. Yes. And that's all baked into our guide, Nigel. And if you look at the midpoint of our EPS guide for the year will be above 20% EPS growth for the 3rd year in a row.

Speaker 2

So I'm super proud of what the team has been able to accomplish there. And it's the flywheel of innovation. It's the flywheel around how we operate our business operating system. I always tell people it's a system of things that makes Trane Technologies a great company And hopefully, investors see how we're executing to that system of things.

Speaker 8

No question. The Citi base points, I think you mentioned in 1Q that that was a bit lighter than Citi base points. I just wanted to see if maybe there's anything on timing as well. But My follow-up question is maybe a bit off piece, but most of your industrial peers have gone to cash EPS. And I think you're carrying about $150,000,000 of intangibles right now.

Speaker 8

I think it's about $0.50 per share or thereabouts. It's a chunk of change for sure. Have you considered maybe moving to cash EPS, especially as you're doing these bolt ons, which do tend to carry a lot more, you know, a fair amount of intangibles. But Have you considered that move? And if not, would you consider that if you were to do more deals?

Speaker 2

Nigel, appreciate the suggestion. We'll look into it. We like the simple methodology of looking at just net earnings And how much free cash flow are we driving off of that? When I think about our conversion in the last 3 years, the average free cash flow conversion and earnings for us 110%. And we're targeting this year equal to or greater than 100% on conversion.

Speaker 2

So we do look at that metric. When it comes to return on invested capital, we'll look at cash flow return on invested capital as another metric. I think it takes out the noise a bit Some of the accounting conventions that you have to manage through and ultimately on an ex intangible basis, let's look at The cash returns of those investments and we'll start that with an acquisition really year 1, year 2, year 3 and evaluate its creativeness Over a period of time. So we like the ability to buy the 3rd year of an acquisition, have accretive EPS growth, Drive accretive cash flow return on invested capital. And I would say while very modest this year, even the acquisitions we just made this year will have a very modest impact on EPS already in year 1.

Speaker 2

So, I think that's a bit of the metric, but appreciate the insight. We'll certainly get that some thought.

Speaker 8

Fair enough. Cash is king.

Speaker 11

Thanks guys. Thanks Nigel.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line Dean Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 2

Hey, Dean. Good morning.

Speaker 7

Hey, can we put the spotlight on China

Speaker 2

for

Speaker 7

a moment here? It was really a standout. And whereas A lot of the other industrials have struggled, in terms of COVID reopening and so forth. How much of that was a catch up? Just kind of give us perspective on what the cadence of orders are and what you're expecting in the second half?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, we did have an easy comp in the Q2 in Asia Pacific, specifically in China because of COVID lockdowns. Think about, I think it's like $60,000,000 that pushed out of the second quarter into the back half of the year. But even with that, we had very strong results In China. And if you look specifically in China, I mean, the verticals that are strong, we're strong in.

Speaker 2

So think of the high-tech verticals, semiconductors, data centers, healthcare, those are all With the direct sales force, again, we're very strong in those verticals, and the team there has just executed at a very high level. We were a very strong team in Asia Pacific, And we continue to do very, very well in that region of the world.

Speaker 7

That's great. And if we just data centers come up multiple times, AI has come up multiple times, we get that. And in your answer to Chris's question about the implications of AI and the whole 3x heat factor with the new chips, The legacy cooling for data centers will still be in demand, But more investment is happening on the liquid cooling side. Have you and Maybe you teased us a bit, but say you've got some other projects that you're working on. So maybe there's some liquid cooling opportunities there.

Speaker 7

But How do you see, as a legacy air cooling business, how do you see the rise of liquid cooling? Is this a Threat, is this a business that you need to get into? Just share us what you think the roadmap is.

Speaker 2

Great, great question, Deane. You obviously did your homework in this space. We made an equity investment in a company called LiquidStack at the end of the Q1, And they specialize in immersion cooling. So and think about immersion cooling is you're actually putting the rack into What they call a dielectric fluid, and all that means is it doesn't conduct electricity. These are very efficient systems.

Speaker 2

So we have our scientists working with liquid stack scientists, and we actually have some data center customers that are involved in this as well As we really triage this opportunity, early days is where this has a lot of promise, and we're excited about it. I think when you get into these high heat applications, this is where a new technology will be developed, and we're going We're going to keep working it. We're not there yet, but we think it has a lot of opportunities for the future.

Speaker 7

Yes, we agree. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sure. Nice question.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hey guys, good morning.

Speaker 2

Hey Andrew, how are you doing?

Speaker 11

I'm doing well. Just a question trying to Size and other opportunity, obviously, these big mega projects, EVs and semiconductors, what's the right way of sizing it Per project as a percent of sales, I mean I've heard a number I think 100,000 ton chiller per semi plant. You guys brought up, I take it, that Samsung is long in Texas. Is that sort of the right size of thinking per facility? Just Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, it's a good question, Andrew. The short answer is it depends, okay? You have some fab plants that are extensions. You have other fab plants that are new.

Speaker 2

The EV battery plant could be really All over the map as far as the size that they'll be putting in. So I hate to give out a number because averages will always I know you're trying to size the total opportunity. I would just tell you it's large. And it's large on both the on the Chilled water side as well as on the air handling side. So if you think about it as an applied system, this is a large opportunity.

Speaker 2

It will be a tailwind for our business Into the future.

Speaker 11

And just maybe shifting a little bit to light commercial. Can we just talk about what has been driving the Strength in light commercial and anything that sort of concerns you about maybe channel inventory in light commercial or just Tom's getting tough or frankly you talked about not seeing any impact from IRA into 2024 if that just trumps everything and we should just Take a longer term view, but just more color on light commercial units right now.

Speaker 2

Thank you. I don't think there's anything I would call out. I think there was an efficiency change. You knew about that. So certainly, there could have been some pent up demand.

Speaker 2

I'm not we don't it's not a product that We have a lot of inventory on. Some of it goes through our IWDs on the very light side, but not where That's not where the when we talk about our residential business, we talk about normalizing, that's not where the normalization has to occur. So, it's been strong. It's been strong for a while. And obviously, we have a very competitive portfolio there with Some really neat innovations.

Speaker 2

I think I told you when we were together that we took the opportunity when we The efficiency change to really refresh the portfolio, now all of our light unitary product can be offered in what we call a dual fuel option. Think of it as a heat pump that could also operate with a fossil fuel based on what ambient temperatures are In a particular region at a particular time. So very efficient customers. So it's we're super excited about the opportunities there.

Speaker 11

Got you. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Andrew. Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back to Zack Nagel for closing comments.

Speaker 1

Thank you. I'd like to thank everyone for joining in today's call. Thanks for your interest and time spent with Turing Technologies. Thanks.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Trane Technologies Q2 2023
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