Grupo Supervielle Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 24, 2023

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the LUKOS Superior Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This is Anavas Desai, Fresh Air and IRO. A slide presentation will accompany today's webinar, which is available in the Investors section of Grupo Superior's Investor Relations website. Today's conference call is being recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in listen on remote.

Operator

There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions at the end of today's presentation. If you want to ask a question, you need to be connected to a Zoom platform from a device. We will not be able to answer questions if you are connected from a phone line. Also, please make sure your first and last name appear in the Zoom platform you are using. You will be able to ask a question by voice or send questions in written form via the Q and A box in the Zoom platform anytime during the call.

Operator

Speaking during today's call will be Francisco Supervielle, our Chairman and CEO and Mariano Villa, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us are Andro Stentel, First Life Chairman of the Board and CEO at Banco Superior. All will be available for the Q and A session. As a reminder, today's call will contain forward looking statements based on management's current expectations and beliefs and subject to several risks and uncertainties. I refer you to a forward looking statement section of our earnings release and recent filings with the SEC.

Operator

We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements to reflect new or changed events or circumstances. Patricio Superliel, our Chairman and CEO, will start the call discussing the key highlights for the quarter and priorities for 2023 as well as an update on macro views for this year and 2024. Afterwards, Maria Norilla, our CFO, will take a deeper look at our performance and near term perspective. This will be followed by a Q and A session. Patricio, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Anna. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I will begin my presentation with Slide 3. We continue executing our strategic plan while navigating complex macro and political environment with weak loan demand.

Speaker 1

The momentum that we saw at the beginning of the year continued through the Q2 with profitability across all business units. Our program is on track with ROE improving to 18% in wheel terms in the quarter. For the first half of the year, ROE increased to 10% from a negative 6% in the same period last year. Our results for the first half reflect strong asset and liability management, our prudent approach to lending and significant progress in streamlining operations. This resulted in revenue growth, healthy asset quality, significant improvement in operating efficiency and profitability.

Speaker 1

We continued deepening our transformation, driving digitalization and innovation while capturing customers beyond our physical footprint. Starting June 3, we were the 1st bank in Argentina to expand the timeframe for money margin investment to 20 fourseven. This initiative has been well received with 90,000 clients already investing through this platform.

Speaker 2

As we look to the remainder of

Speaker 1

the year, our key priorities include: 1st, continued focus on profitability and cross selling products to existing customers. In particular, we are cross selling insurance, investment products and cash management services, while also driving loans above market growth. In Brazil Online, our online brokerage business continued to deliver a very strong performance. Active customers doubled year to date assets under management up 49% in real terms since December last year. 2nd, we're closely monitoring market conditions and managing assets and liabilities to protect financial margins and the group's capital and continue with a prudent risk credit risk approach.

Speaker 1

Our shareholder equity remained fully hedged against inflation, while we are also long in U. S. Dollars. Now please turn to Slide 4. Foreign exchange reserves have continued to decline further impacted by the negative commercial balance, while the Central Bank continued to increase the reference interest rates on the bank on the back of accelerated inflation.

Speaker 1

After the primary election, the Central Bank devalued the peso by 22%. The reference rates of Leliqs increased from 97% to 118%. Against this backdrop, the blue chip swap experienced higher volatility reflecting increased political uncertainty. According to certain early indicators, the pass through effects of the exchange rate devaluation is anticipated to have further accelerated inflation in August and into September. In turn, the fiscal balance has deteriorated as revenues have been declining and expenses declined in real terms but at a slower pace than in previous months.

Speaker 1

The IMF original fiscal primary deficit target of 1.9% has been exceeded and is currently estimated to reach 3%. Turning to Slide 5. As we head towards the presidential election in October, let me share our macro views for the remaining of 2023 and expectation for 2024. While the government is maintaining a fiscal balance restraint, the recent fiscal declaration has established a new and higher draw on inflation. On August 23, the Board of the IMF completed the 5th and 6th reviews of the extended funds facility for Argentina, enabling an immediate disbursement of around $7,500,000,000 The next review is scheduled for November 2023.

Speaker 1

In this context, we expect economic activity to continue falling in the second half of the year, leading to a GDP contraction of approximately 3% of the year. Looking to 2024. The primary election suggests that a clear majority of Argentines favor fiscal and monetary normalization, which could lead to a growth scenario in the medium terms as the economy stabilizes. We anticipate a significant increase in the country's commercial surplus, driven by growing agricultural exports, higher energy production and more favorable trade regulations. Contraction in economic activity is anticipated to continue during the Q1 of 2024 with activity levels turning to positive terrain in the second half.

Speaker 1

To conclude, we have a proven track record of operating in stable conditions and are certain of our ability to navigate through these challenges. While macroeconomic headwinds are expected to persist as we move through the remainder of the year, we are well positioned to address these challenges. In the meantime, we maintain ample liquidity and safeguard our capital against inflation, which position us well to rebound and resume growth once the economy stabilizes. With this, let me turn the call to Mariano. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Patricio, and good day, everyone. Please turn to Slide 6 for an overview of our performance for the past 6 months of the year. As Patricio has just noted, the completion execution of our strategy has driven a positive swing in profitability, in line with our expectations. Net income improved to ARS7 1,000,000,000 with ROE at nearly 10%, up from an end loss of ARS4.4 billion and negative ROE of 6% in the 1st 6 months of last year. This improved year on year performance was mainly driven by a combination of strong revenue growth and lower costs and provisions.

Speaker 2

Starting with revenues. Net financial income was up 9% or over ARS7 billion, reflecting higher spreads and volumes on our investment portfolio. Our brokerage business also performed very well, driving fee income growth of slightly over 2% or close to MXN 500,000,000. On the cost front, rightsizing our operating efficiencies initiatives implemented in 2022 contributed to a 9% decline in personnel expenses or MXN 3,600,000,000. In addition, our tight focus on cost controls resulted in a mid single digit year on year reduction in administrative expenses and G and A, equivalent to savings of ARS 1,100,000,000.

Speaker 2

Cost savings reflect the reduction of operating expenses at Udu, the transfer of smaller Salisbury province branches to Banque Gracion, the decrease in corporate office leased space and selected branch closing. We also reported a good performance in loan cost provisions, down nearly 35% or close to MXN3.3 billion, reflecting both a shift away from consumer finance loans together with growth in middle market financing. Lastly, other income losses declined nearly 6% or ARS736 million, reflecting a drop in credit card benefits together with lower turnover taxes paid. Now for a quick update on turnover taxes. There is more detail provided in our earnings release.

Speaker 2

Since 2021, Equinox Aires started to tax income from the Lig and repos with the Central Bank. And since 2023, the promise of Endozaki is the same with the Lig. Before, these instruments were exempt as they are issued by a national entity. As a consequence, the Central Bank filed a claim with the Supreme Court of Justice against the tax authorities from Buenos Aires and Mendoza alleging that the legal monetary policy instrument used by the National Monetary Authority that can't be interfered with by local governments. In addition, both banking associations, AVEVA and AVA and the majority of financial institutions operating in these terms followed suit.

Speaker 2

Accordingly, we are not taxing the leaks in Buenos Aires and Mendoza since April and January this year, respectively, following the opinion of our internal and external legal advisers. Savings in turnover tax for 2nd Q 'twenty three accounted for approximately 500 bps of ROE. This is in line with the Central Bank claim for the current constitutionality of this tax, and we believe it's in the best interest of our stakeholders. These contributions to profitability were partially offset by higher taxable income and exposure of deferred tax assets to inflation. Now looking at our performance for the Q2, starting with Slide 7.

Speaker 2

Total assets increased sequentially above inflation and significantly above industry growth, with deposits also expanding considerably above the industry trend. Our effective asset and liability management allowed us to leverage the higher spreads of short term Central Bank Securities and maximize NIM in an increasingly volatile environment. Our short term Central Bank Securities portfolio increased to nearly 43% of total assets at quarter end, up from 31% in the prior quarter, while the share of government security declined to 8% this quarter from nearly 11% in the past quarter. In turn, peso deposits increased 16% sequentially, driven by growth in public sector deposits, corporates and the positive impact from the 13th salary. Moving on to Slide 8.

Speaker 2

Total lending, lack inflation and the industry trends reflecting our prudent approach together with over weak credit demand. As a result, total lending fell 5% sequentially. Starting this quarter, with total lending, we are providing info on off balance sheet guarantees granted to corporate customers. It is a product area that has been growing rapidly this year. As shown on the chart to the right, as we continue to prioritize high value customers, particularly loans to payroll, SMEs and middle market customers, consumer finance customers continue to see share of total loans.

Speaker 2

Moving on to Slide 9. The total NPL ratio declined to 2.5% in the quarter, one of the lowest levels ever as we maintain tight credit scoring criteria and healthier loan mix, as I mentioned earlier. Early delinquency in turn improved sequentially. All segments contributed to the lower NPL ratio. Moreover, the sale of delinquent consumer loan portfolio together with the upgrade of the corporate customers to Stage 2 from Stage 3 contributed to bringing the coverage ratio to 148%, up from 116% in the prior quarter.

Speaker 2

Now please turn to Slide 10. Net financial margin increased 20% sequentially to over ARS48 1,000,000,000 in the quarter. Higher investment portfolio volumes, along with increased returns driven by sustained interest rate hikes following rising inflation contributed to higher NIM in the quarter, expanding 4 70 basis points sequentially and 7 80 basis points year on year to 26.6%. This high level of NIM continued into July announced. As shown on Slide 11, the efficiency ratio for the quarter improved to 62.5% from nearly 72% in the prior quarter and just over 81% a year ago.

Speaker 2

The sequential improvement reflects revenue growth of over 16%, coupled with a 7.6% increase in expenses. Note that personnel expenses were up 12% in the period as salaries in June were adjusted ahead of inflation.

Operator

On

Speaker 2

accumulated paid fees, expenses for the first half of the year decreased to close to 7% while revenues were up 9%. Moving on to capitalization on Slide 12. We continue to build capital in the quarter with our Tier 1 ratio decreasing 1 percentage point sequentially to 15.7%. This increase is mainly explained by positive bank's net results together with dividends received at the holding company level from others of the year. Also, risk weighted assets increased low inflation in the quarter, reflecting loan portfolio contraction in real terms.

Speaker 2

Before opening for Q and A, please turn to slide 13 to review our perspectives for the full year 2023. Taking into account the recent macro trends expressed by Patricio, we have revised our perspective for the following line items. With respect to other qualities, although NPL is at very low levels, we now anticipate net cost of risk for 2023 to range between 4.5% to 5%. This is above the cost of risk for perhaps half 'twenty three, but inflation is most likely to rise sharply in the 3rd and 4th quarters, eroding individual disposable income and impacting certain commercial business. Additionally, we now expect the MDR ratio at year end to range between 2.5% 3%, well before we anticipated closing the year with an NPL ratio at a higher level ranging between those observed during the Q1 'twenty two and Q1 'twenty three.

Speaker 2

In a higher interest rate environment and given the good year to date NIM performance of 24%, we expect NIM for the year to remain similar to the level reported in the first half. In terms of fees, in the current context, we have expect softer insurance fees in real terms than earlier in the year. By contrast, brokerage fees will be higher this year as this business benefits from higher volatility. Our view on the bulk of bank fees to individuals remains unchanged with these fees expected to reprice in line with inflation. With respect to profitability, we now anticipate ROE to remain at levels observed in the first half of the year, where before we expected a positive but lower ROE.

Speaker 2

Note that while ROE reported in the Q2 'twenty three benefited from extraordinary spreads and volumes in our investment portfolio, performance has been good in July August to date. We are also increasing our Tier one ratio expectation in the range of 14% to 16% by year end, up from 13% to 14% before. As a reminder, 100 percent of our capital remains hedged against inflation. Beyond these changes, our 2020 expectations for all other metrics remain unchanged from our prior quarter views. Now we are ready to open the floor for questions.

Speaker 2

Anna, please go ahead.

Operator

Thank you, Mariano. At this time, we will be conducting the Q and A session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you need to be connected to the Zoom platform. And first, you need to raise your hand and press again to withdraw your question. You can also hand your questions via the Q and A box.

Operator

We would ask you to limit yourself to 1 question and follow-up Our first question comes from Ernesto Avedondo, Algonquin America. Ernesto, how are you?

Speaker 3

Hi, Ana. Thank you very much. Hi, good morning, Patricio, Alejandro and Mariano. Congrats on your results and thanks for the opportunity. My question will be on your impressions on the economic and political outlook.

Speaker 3

After the primaries, we have seen, got like the preference on the voters. So, I would like to hear your thoughts. If, if, if is elected President, he will likely need to make agreements to pass some of his campaign proposals, which I think could prevent a fast polarization of the economy or to protect the Central Bank. However, at the same time, it could be challenged to get into agreements to approve structural reforms, which I think are highly needed, especially when Argentina has inflation and interest rates above 100%. So I would like to hear your views on what are your first impressions on the economic and the political outlook going forward.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Mito. I will refer the answer to Alejandro. Simply,

Speaker 2

I

Speaker 1

would like first to start by saying that, of course, these results were sort of a surprise for all of us. And we did not expect a 1 third scenario, which for each candidate, more or less, and this is reflects uncertainty. But at the same time, majority of our clients are demanding a change towards lower size of government, lower taxes and more of a private economy creating jobs. So this is good. But as you well said, we need I mean, the next government will need teams.

Speaker 1

We need to make agreements because there are many structural changes that need to be done in the country. And this is quite a challenging scenario for next government. Alejandro, do you want to add? Yes.

Speaker 4

Good morning, Alberto. Thank you for your question. I think that basically the surprise in the actual outcome has introduced a greater degree of volatility than we've seen in the markets. However, having said that, the levels of deposits in pesos and dollars have remained pretty stable. And the devaluation of 22% in the official exchange rates followed by an increase from 97% to 118% in the reference peso interest rate.

Speaker 4

They are trying to anchor future expectations of inflation. And judging by the graphics contracts we saw as of yesterday, this could hold up to some point in September or the middle of October. That is that after an initial turbulence, the guidelines of the government by which with these two movements, they would try to anchor the future devaluations and future increases in interest rates up to October seem to be as of now reasonably in line with what the government would like to happen. Having said that, what we saw is that the gap with the financial exchange rates moved up, moved and maintains the 100% gap. And this will create a pass through situation and therefore we are expecting inflation over the next months to go into the double digit zone for August September for sure.

Speaker 4

Now going back to that's overall as what we see going on with the macro if you extend that beyond October, we think that the government will do everything in its hands, in its reach to avoid further devaluations. And having reached an agreement with the IMF and having some boost even if used to pay back debt in our Central Bank reserves is a help in that direction. And therefore, we think that we will try to definitely avoid further devaluations further after October, but there is a chance that that might happen when you look at the rate of inflation that we expect. In terms of what would happen with Millet becoming elected, I think you're quite right in terms of alliances. If his performance at the ballot box in October was similar to the one he had on August 13, he would get roughly 40 representatives in the House of Representatives and 8 senators.

Speaker 4

And that clearly is very far from the majorities needed to pass legislation. Therefore, he would go into alliances, which will probably make it more difficult to move too quickly into dollarization or changing the charter or even eliminating the Central Bank. We think that it probably prioritize together with its allies a very quick de evaluation and stabilization plan with strict fiscal and monetary policy, you would initially have significant inflation and then it should be going down towards the second half of twenty twenty four. Definitely, it will be a challenge for him to create these alliances and to create support for the legislation that he wants to pass through Congress. We think that on many areas, for example, labor reform, there will be a consensus in moving forward and probably the most radical of his proposals will take longer, something that he and his team more recently have been acknowledging that will take a little bit more time and require a little bit more of understanding of the situation they get before they change governments and understand what the situation that they are receiving is.

Speaker 4

I hope I've given you sort of a broad brush answer to a rather complex question. Yes.

Speaker 3

No, no. Thank you very much. Just kind of a follow-up in terms of a potential dollarization of the economy. I believe Bullridge is also proposing to dollarize the economy, but at a much lengthier pace now when compared to Malay. But I think both of the candidates are going into that direction.

Speaker 3

So, if we go into this dollarized economy, what could be the impact for the Argentine banks? And what is your current strategy in paper linked to inflation and dollars at the moment?

Speaker 4

I can take a shot and then let Patricio and Mariano can answer. First of all, our information about what the Burrage team is looking into is we've been talking more about bimonetary economy rather than going full fledged to dollarization. At least that's the information we have so far. Now in terms of what the impact of dollarization would be on banks, we see positive and negative effects. On the positive side, what you would very quickly see is a sharp decline in interest rates.

Speaker 4

And therefore, this sharp decline would probably create significant demand, credit demand. Remember that currently, the credits to private sector as a percentage of GDP is close to all time lows at around 7.5%. If you would like to have a proxy of what the upside could be, you could go back to the convertibility where it was close to 25%. So a sharp decline in interest rates would probably boost demand and increase significantly from current levels credit demand of the private sector. You'll also see a very likely an extension of durations in these loans.

Speaker 4

And you would also see a much better functioning of the capital markets to provide long term financing both to the market and to the banks. So all these would be actually very good effects, very positive effects. On the negative effects, one very important difference is that you lose the lender of last resort and the role of the lender of last resort in case of a financial crisis. And this would probably make banks at least initially very prudent in the policies that they have to whom and under what conditions they extend credit. I think that's like a broad brush summary of positive and negative effects.

Speaker 4

I don't know if Mariano or Patricio would like to add?

Speaker 1

I would like to add a few other positive effects, but I of course, building on what Alejandro said, I think another positive effect would be there would be a dollar relation. It would imply also more liquidity and for bank, for the banking system in the sense and a substantial growth in deposits because Argentine's have the custom of saving part of their wealth approach and then they would have the opportunity to invest in to make put the deposits in Argentine banks. There's another thing also important. I think that with dollarization, you remove the currency risk for foreign investments. So potentially, there could be it could be a booster for foreign investments in the country that would be good for the banks and also for the risk for the economy as a whole.

Speaker 1

And finally, I think also that a dollarization could trigger at a certain point in time a consolidation because I think if you look at what happens in the past 25 years, there was no the only moment of consolidation when real moment of consolidation was when there was a crisis in 2,002, a big financial crisis. Then afterwards, there were just some transactions in terms of M and A, but there were only a few of them. There was not a driver consolidation. And I think it has to do a lot with a risk sensation from management of banks towards making potential moves. When you remove the currency effect and you have, let's say, dollar deposits, I think it's a major change.

Speaker 1

And that major change could lead to a consolidation at a certain point in time, which I think is very good.

Speaker 3

Excellent. I think you made very interesting points. Just thinking of if we have this dollarized economy, as you mentioned, that could help to have lower rates and to improve the lending activity in Argentina.

Speaker 2

How should

Speaker 3

we think about next year if that happens considering that this year most of the Argentine banks have benefited a lot from the asset liability management and investing in the lease passes in government paper. So, how do you think that will be sustainable for next year?

Speaker 1

I think that as I said, with consolidation, at a certain point in time, there will be I'm sorry, with fiscal consolidation and fiscal amortization at a certain point in time, there will be a pickup in loan demand. And then the assets that banks have today in particularly on Central Bank Securities, they will be transformed into loans and which is very healthy, by the way. Do you want to build on these answers?

Speaker 2

Yes. Alberto, I think for next year, we've seen at the beginning more or less what is happening now. Until the macro stabilizes, we will most probably see high levels of inflation, high levels of interest rates. And then increasing inflation finally goes down, which is what we expect after the fiscal deficit is reduced and certain tariffs and other prices where the prices are fixed. So in that context, what we believe is that we will see a pickup in low demand, 1st from the most probably from the corporate sector and then from individuals, which will in turn replace the Higgs, which is our main asset class today.

Speaker 2

So that will allow us to replace the financial margin generated or obtained from central bank loans to financial margin obtained from loans, which will be our main business. Remember that in the past, we used to have a higher NIM than the industry. Now our NIM, although it's at very high levels, it's similar to the industry because all banks are doing the sense we are capturing deposits and investing in the LEICs and Treasury Bonds. So what we expect for the midterm is that the LEICs and really most all Central Bank instruments, relief and repos will be finally replaced by a growth in the low portfolio and having more sustainable long term You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you, Ernesto. We have a second question now from a new question from Carlo Gomez Lopez. Hi, Carlo. How are you from HSBC, sorry. Please, Carlo, go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hello. Good morning. Can you hear me?

Operator

Yes. Perfect.

Speaker 5

Okay. Very good. Thank you. So you talked about the surprise in the past elections. I've been surprised by the good results of the banks in this Q2.

Speaker 5

And I was wondering, it applies to all the banks, right? All of you have had a particularly good Q2. Should we understand that there is some element of either the interest rates or the inflation evolving in particular way this quarter, which is different from the first, perhaps different from the third? Can we really extrapolate this second quarter or this first half of the year into the second half? I understand there is a lot of uncertainty.

Speaker 5

We don't know what is going to happen. But that will be my general question. Is this doesn't this feel a bit extraordinary? And would the normal profitability be lower than this? Thank you so much.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Carlos. Please, Mariano can answer this question.

Speaker 2

Yes, Roberto. Thank you, Carlos, for your question. Yes, sure, as you said, this quarter was somehow extraordinary. But nonetheless, we are seeing a similar means and spread during July and the last time of August. So we will probably see a third quarter still probably in line with the 2nd Q, but more broadly stabilizing in the Q4.

Speaker 2

So maybe this is not the level of spreads that we expect for a mid- or longer term, but it still has some time to run, particularly into the Q3.

Speaker 1

Okay. I would sorry, Carlos, I would also add I'd like to add that the swing factor that you see that you have seen in our case also reflects all the structural changes and consolidations that we have been conducting over the past year by basically benefiting from the fact that the consumer finance business, which was a lagging factor for us, is no longer there. And also we've been doing, I think, a pretty good job in terms of consolidating branches that are one close to the other. And we have all we have built digital capabilities today that expand the footprint and we can open individual accounts or enterprise accounts out of our branch network. And so we are very happy on that.

Speaker 1

And so we are sort of we are preparing the company to for the next for a stabilized economy and preparing for growth again.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you. And no, it is true. Your profitability the gap in profitability with the other banks is narrower. So again, my question will refer to all the industry because all the industry has been quite profitable.

Speaker 5

But you're right, your Supervielle has gotten closer to the other part. There's no question about that. If I can follow-up a little bit, going into 2024 2025 and I know that you wish you knew like all of us did. But realistically, I mean, it seems reasonable to expect that there has to be some type of adjustment or real adjustment of the variables becoming more real, the foreign exchange, the tariffs, everything has to adjust, has to go back to more normal level. From the outside, that would seem contractionary.

Speaker 5

And therefore, the next, I would say, year, year and a half might be tough. Now that's one perspective. How do you see it and how are you positioning the bank for the next 2 years?

Speaker 1

Alejandro,

Speaker 4

There's no question Carlos that we will see volatility in the next year, year and a half. Having said that, in terms of the bank strategy, we're not changing our strategy. We're still targeting our key market segments. We are focusing on middle to high income individuals on one hand and trying to give them the best digital experience. We are also focusing on SMEs and we're making good progress there as they we do significant cross sell and innovation on those in those parts.

Speaker 4

Now in terms of the impacts of the stabilization plan, we think that initially it will be recessionary. We are imagining 2024 with a decline in GDP of roughly 2.5%, 2.3% and that will probably affect certain customer segments that are linked to consumption. But at the same time, 2 or 3 very positive things will be happening in the Argentine economy, sectors to which we are exposed. One is a significant change in the commercial balance for the energy sector. As you are probably aware, we are going from a deficit in our energy trade to a very significant surplus, which will probably be heightened towards the second half of next year.

Speaker 4

And we also have significant growth and investments in Mining. And at the same time, the impact of the drought will be will have gone. So you're likely to have a big swing also that will help you in terms of Central Bank reserves creating a difference estimated by some economists at around 20 $1,000,000 All this will have an extremely positive effect towards the second half of the year on these sectors to which we are exposed. So the answer would be 2024 is going to be a very binary year. You're going to see a very complicated first half with high inflation and deep recession as interest rates go up probably to control as fast as possible this inflation.

Speaker 4

But then the second half with a significant change in expectations and being exposed to some of these sectors I mentioned should help us drive growth in the direction we wanted because these are export oriented segments that will have a significant advantage after the stabilization and the foreign currency adjustment.

Speaker 1

I would like to add on what Alejandro said. In all the sectors that Alejandro mentioned, we are starting we have started to grow more aggressively. And we see also today already results that we are going above the market. So the decline that you were seeing in the 1st 2 quarters, we want to change this to grow in terms of market share. But also the other thing is that we have if you look into our past history, a large part of the high needs was due to a big percentage of a big market share in personal loans due to a large segments of individuals that get their salaries or their pensions, particularly senior citizens.

Speaker 1

This when inflation goes down, we will start to see again the effect of high needs in personal loans, probably in the second half of twenty twenty four. And that will help us to resume growth to get profitability from that side also. That I wanted to that I think is I don't know, you want to

Speaker 2

add something? I can maybe add just a brief summary on the very short term view. So how we are positioned to go through these upcoming months is where we for sure are going to see a lot of volatility. So right now, we are very liquid to follow-up to highlight that we are very liquid both in pesos and U. S.

Speaker 2

Dollars. After the elections, for instance, we didn't see any reduction in deposits, in particular, dollar deposits were very stable, but we keep them with levels of liquidity of about 70% and also in pesos because our 40% of our asset is in the leagues. The leagues or reports with the Central Bank reports are one day, maybe have 28 days, but they are issued every week. So they have a tenure of about 14 days on average. So that and having cash on very short term loans makes us have a very short term balance with high liquidity, again, both in pesos and dollars, then we are 100% hedged against inflation.

Speaker 2

Here, we have real estate. We have mortgages that are charged by UVA. And we have treasury bonds that are charged by CERB by the inflation index. And then on top of that, we have also a position in treasury bonds that is more tactical where we can be loaned in U. S.

Speaker 2

Dollars. Remember that our position in U. S. Dollar must be net, that's a net position of 0, but we can go loan through dollar linked bonds or 2L bonds, which pay the higher inflation for dollars. So that's how we position for the short term to have the liquidity and also make some profitability that will allow us to build capital for growth.

Speaker 5

Okay. Technical question, the dual bonds, as you said, you can receive your payment in dollars or in pesos. They are counted as foreign currency or as local currency?

Speaker 2

No. They are paid in pesos. The evaluation is higher than inflation. They pay the difference in the exchange rate, but they are paying pesos. And they don't count for the foreign currency position.

Speaker 2

So that's why we don't have a limit on those bonds because they are accounted for as if they were 100 percent pesos.

Speaker 5

All right. So effectively, you can go long dollars through the dual bonds, the GDP and

Speaker 4

Correct.

Speaker 2

Yes. We can go up to 30% with total linked bonds and beyond that because they don't count in the foreign exchange position through dual bonds.

Speaker 5

So is there a limit to the dual bonds?

Speaker 2

No, there's no limit. There's no limit in the of course, we will have our internal policy risk limits, but there's no limits on the foreign currency exposure side for the Central Bank.

Speaker 5

Very clear. Thank you so much and congratulations again.

Operator

Thank you, Carlos. We have a question from Rodrigo Nietshor at LATAM Securities. Hi, Rodrigo. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning, everyone. In light of the prevailing inflationary environment, we have seen a raise in terms of deposits as a proportion of the banking sector funding base and some deposits moving to the money market funds. So and I also was thinking at Patricio's comment before. So do you think this can limit your margins once exposure to the public sector reduces? And then if you can provide us with a brief comment on competition, if platforms like Huala, Mercalpaolo are impacting a role in your funding availability?

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Okay. Yes. The first part, hello, Rodrigo. Regarding funding, as you said, more funds are being allocated by corporates and individuals to mutual funds or money market fund, mainly money market funds. So that's why savings accounts and current accounts in the industry not only are okay, are growing below inflation because with so high rate of inflation, people and companies will allocate more funds to interest assets that accrue some interest.

Speaker 2

But on the other hand, we see growth in deposits also from the institutional side. So that partially offset the extremely high mean that we will have if all funds will stay in selling accounts or current accounts. But as deposits are growing more or less in line with inflation, we expect it to grow a bit less, maybe 5% to 10% less, but with an inflation of more than 100%. So that's not a big difference. So that growth in deposits allows us to keep margins quite at high levels.

Speaker 4

I don't know if I answered the first part of the question.

Speaker 2

So maybe I'll handle or Patricio want to comment on the second part.

Speaker 1

Yes. I mean, I think you raised the point of savings and deposits moving to money market funds. And you mentioned a couple of Fintechs. And basically, I think that when inflation is over 100%, people Argentine, they want to have their protection for their money because of the losing of purchasing power with inflation. And we believe that there is a threat, particularly, yes, on fintechs because they offer a very simple way of protecting their savings or salaries or whatever.

Speaker 1

So what we have done, this is the reason why we were the 1st bank in Argentina to have a simple way of investing in a way, in a very rapid way 7 days a week. You can invest or remove the funds from your investments any day of the week and any time. And this is a way of protecting because it's exactly what the Fintechs were doing and it's kind of strange that still you don't see the bulk of banks that reacting to that. But I think that there will be changes. What we have done probably will be copied by others

Speaker 2

at a certain point in time.

Speaker 1

I don't know if you want to ask.

Speaker 4

That was really helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, Rodrigo. We have a question in the Q and A box from Guido Visosero at Alaria. First, it says, which will be the turnover tax change charge, I'm sorry, in 3rd Q 'twenty 3 considering you are not paying anymore? And what can we expect for the second half 'twenty three in severance payment and early retirement charges?

Speaker 1

Yes. Arianna, do you want to answer those questions?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you for the question, Guido. Let me first take the parts of the turnover tax. First, I would like to point out that it's not that we are not paying turnover taxes. We are not only paying only in regards to the LEVI and Central Bank instruments.

Speaker 2

As we explained during the presentation, these are monetary policy instruments from the Central Bank. So the Central Bank claims that they cannot be taxed or interfere with by local government. So that's why we stopped paying since April. But we keep paying turnover tax on all other taxable income, which is basically interest from loans, for instance. Remember that treasury bonds are not taxed.

Speaker 2

So what we face on the interest firm on the loan portfolio and of course, on commissions and other sources of revenues. So the tax revenue charge for the 3rd quarter could be in line with the 2nd quarter where we had already stopped paying on Leliqs. But as interest rate increase, our revenues also increase. Remember, for this tax, you don't net the inflation charge. You only pay for the revenues.

Speaker 2

Even if interest rates are more positive or negative in real terms, you're paying only on the revenue side. So with higher interest rates, we will probably increase the charge of the turnover tax. So for the 3rd for the 2nd quarter, the turnover tax charge was €5,700,000,000 So we would expect a bit more slightly higher in the 3rd quarter. And regarding severance payments and early retirement charges, we decreased these charges in the first half of the year. But as we continue to find sources of efficiencies, we will probably increase a bit during the second half of the year because we keep through the merge of branches and all the capabilities developed through digital processes that allow us to work more efficiently even with more customers.

Speaker 2

We can reduce our headcounts, of course, not at the level of last year where we reduced 20% the group's headcount because we're merging Google with the bank. But we still continue at a rate that I could say around 5% per year. That's our target. So you could see some increase in severance costs for the second half.

Operator

So this was the last question. We have reached then the end of today's Q and A session. Thank you for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in our company. We look forward to meeting more of you over the coming months and providing financial and business updates next quarter.

Operator

In the interim, we remain available to answer any questions that you may have. Have a good day.

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Key Takeaways

  • ROE improved to 18% in Q2 and 10% in H1 2023 (from –6% a year ago), driven by strong asset & liability management, prudent lending and streamlined operations.
  • NIM expanded to 26.6% (up 470 bps QoQ and 780 bps YoY) as the bank boosted its short-term Central Bank securities to 43% of assets and captured higher rates.
  • Asset quality remained healthy with NPL at 2.5% (one of the lowest ever) and a coverage ratio of 148%, while cost of risk is now guided at 4.5–5% for full-year 2023.
  • The macro outlook assumes a ~3% GDP contraction in 2023 amid political uncertainty ahead of October’s election, accelerating inflation pass-through, IMF support of ~$7.5 billion, and a medium-term recovery in H2 2024.
  • Strategic priorities include cross-selling insurance, investments and cash management, driving loan growth above market, and digital innovation—evidenced by a 24/7 money-market platform (90k users) and a 49% rise in online brokerage AUM.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Grupo Supervielle Q2 2023
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