FB Financial Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
January 16, 2024

Key Takeaways

  • FB Financial reported Q4 EPS of $0.63 and adjusted EPS of $0.77, while tangible book value per share grew at a 13.8% CAGR since the IPO, highlighting strong profitability.
  • The bank ended Q4 with a 9.7% tangible common equity to tangible assets ratio, a loans-plus-securities to deposits ratio of 103%, and $7.1 billion of available liquidity, underscoring a robust capital and funding position.
  • A recent operating foundation redesign reduced expenses, enhanced support-function efficiency and preserved its local-authority community banking model, fueling profitability momentum entering 2024.
  • FB Financial achieved $122 million in Q4 loan growth (5.2% annualized pace) and expects mid-single-digit loan growth in 2024, with a broader target of 10%–12% combined loan and deposit growth.
  • Credit metrics remained benign with net charge-offs under 1 basis point, an ACL ratio of 1.6%, and reduced construction loan concentration to 93% of Tier 1 capital plus ACL, reflecting strong asset quality.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
FB Financial Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00

There are 11 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to FB Financial Corporation's 4th Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Hosting the call today from FB Financial are Chris Holmes, President and Chief Executive Officer and Michael Matthey, Chief Financial Officer. Also joining the call for the question and answer session is Travis Edmonson, Chief Banking Officer. Please note, FB Financial's earnings release, supplemental financial information and this morning's presentation are available on the Investor Relations page of the company's website at www.firstbankonline.com and on the Securities and Exchange Commission's website at www.sec c.gov. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay on FB Financial's website approximately an hour after the conclusion of the call.

Operator

At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen only mode. The call will be open for questions after the presentation. During this presentation, FB Financial may make comments which constitute forward looking statements under the federal securities laws. Forward looking statements are based on management's current differ materially from any results expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. Many of such factors are beyond FB Financial's Ability to control or predict and listeners are cautioned not to put undue reliance on such forward looking statements.

Operator

A more detailed description of these and other risks that may cause actual results to materially differ from expectations is contained in the FB Financial's periodic and current reports filed with the SEC, including FB Financial's most recent Form 10 ks. Except as required by law, FB Financial disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. In addition, these remarks may include certain non GAAP financial measures as signed by SEC Regulation G. A presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of the non GAAP measures to comparable GAAP measures is available in FB Financial's earnings release. Supplemental Information and this morning's presentation, which are available on the Investor Relations page of the company's website at www.

Operator

Firstbankonline.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. I would now like to turn the presentation over to Chris Holmes, FB Financial's President and CEO. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning and thank you, Andrea. Thank you everybody for joining us this morning. We appreciate your interest in FB Financial. For the quarter, we reported EPS of $0.63 and adjusted EPS of $0.77 We've grown our tangible book value per share excluding the impact of AOCI at a compound annual growth rate of 13.8% since our IPO. We closed out 'twenty three and entered 'twenty four in what we believe is an enviable position due to 3 factors.

Speaker 1

1, we have a very strong balance sheet. 2, we've redesigned and reinforced our operating foundation and 3, we have some profitability momentum after hitting an inflection point in the second half 2023, I believe that we should be able to continue that momentum into 2024. On my first point, our strong balance sheet comes from our capital position, our liquidity position, our credit profile and our granular Diversified loan and deposit portfolios. Capital reflects safety and we've got an It's imperative to maintain sound capital ratios at all times, but it gets extra attention in times of uncertainty and volatility. Our ratio Tangible common equity to tangible assets is among the highest of our peers at 9.7%.

Speaker 1

We keep no Health and maturity securities, so 100% of our unrealized loss on our investment portfolio is reflected in that 9.7% TCE to TA ratio. Our regulatory capital ratios are also quite strong. When you adjust unrealized losses out of the regulatory ratios, we also rank With the top of the class.

Speaker 2

To those strong capital levels, we had

Speaker 1

a comfortable liquidity profile as our ratio Of loans plus security to deposits continues to stay near 100% at 103% currently. We have access to $7,100,000,000 in available liquidity sources. On the credit side, We keep a balanced granular diversified loan portfolio with only a handful of blending relationships Over 30,000,000 and none approaching our legal lending limit of over 200,000,000. For a time following the Franklin Financial acquisition, we had a concentration in construction lending, but currently our ADC To Tier 1 ratio I'm sorry, our ADC to Tier 1 plus ACL ratio is 93% Our CRE ratio is 2 65%. We've averaged less than 5 basis points of annual net charge offs since Becoming a public company 7 years ago and we remain exceptionally well reserved as our ACL to loans held for investment Is 1.6%.

Speaker 1

And finally on the deposit side, we have a granular customer focused funding base. We've had a higher level of public funds than we like since our Franklin acquisition in 2020, but we continue to consciously remix those deposits It's in the customer funds reducing those public funds by 23% since the Q4 of 2022 To around 15% of our deposit pace, so a very strong balance sheet. To my second point, To understand our redesign and reinforced operating foundation, we have to add some context. In the early months of 2022, we took stock of the economic conditions and forecast of higher interest rates, recession and quantitative tightening. Our view of challenges ahead was reinforced when we heard Jamie Dimon's statement that he was preparing for the worst and forecast That the U.

Speaker 1

S. Was facing an economic hurricane. Even though that economic hurricane never materialized, We made some decisions and we began working on capital, liquidity and loan concentrations to end up with the balance sheet that I just described. Also at that time, we had grown to $12,700,000,000 in assets from $3,200,000,000 at the time of our IPO in September 2016 and have grown loans and deposits at organic compound annual growth rates A 15.5% 16.4% respectively over that period And it had completed 4 acquisitions over 4 years That added a total of $5,700,000,000 in assets. While we had made significant investments along the way, much of our structure and operating process had been reinforced through additional headcount, incremental improvements and tack on additions.

Speaker 1

Prior to our recent rebuild, that structure was beginning to feel like it had been cobbled together reactively and out of necessity. It no longer allowed for the proper efficiencies of And had led to some expense creep. The risk off sluggish growth environment in the industry has that the industry has experienced over the past several Quarter is well timed for us and we were able to focus on constructing The organizational structure that enables us to properly scale into the future. The overall talent level and key support functions has increased while the expense base has shrunk. We've improved accountability and efficiency of interactions between the support functions and our relationship managers.

Speaker 1

This has enabled us to maintain our local authority Community Banking model rather than moving to the centralized business line model that most banks our size utilize. We view this model as a key differentiator For associate and customer satisfaction, which allows for organic growth and we also believe it makes us a more attractive merger partner for smaller And so to my 3rd point, on being able to continue some of the earnings momentum that we've seen in the past two quarters, We're excited about the excess capital that can be put to work improving returns and profitability. Our priorities for the deployment of that capital are organic growth first, Strategic M and A second and capital and profitability optimization through things like securities trade, share repurchases And redemption of capital, 3rd. Speaking of organic growth, in the 4th quarter, we saw our loan portfolio grow by 122,000,000 A 5.2 percent annualized pace even as we reduced our construction exposure by $135,000,000 2024, we anticipate mid single digit growth as the economy slows and as we continue to be selective in financing Certain asset types that we see as being at higher risk in the short term. 2024s loan growth We'll be funded by customer deposit growth.

Speaker 1

We saw deposit costs moderate in the 4th quarter. And while the competitive environment continues to make it Deposits, we're encouraged by deposit pricing trends that we saw in the 4th quarter. We remain active in relationship manager outreach and recruitment, Focused primarily in footprint, we are also open to adding strong teams in markets adjacent to our existing footprint and as the economic environment continues to improve, We'd expect to return to our 10% to 12% organic growth target rate given our Exceptional markets across Tennessee, Alabama, North Georgia and Southern Kentucky. Based on what we hear from fellow bankers, there should be good opportunities Bank combinations over the next couple of years, public valuations are moving in the right direction and whilst credit uncertainty And interest rate marks remain a hurdle for those handful of banks that draw our attention, We know and are comfortable with their credit cultures and credit portfolios. So we don't view that as a significant obstacle.

Speaker 1

As a reminder, On our financial parameters, we value banks on their worth and performance rather than our ability to pay. As we think broadly about the M and A landscape and more specifically about our place in that landscape, we believe that we're due for some consolidation Based on the lack of activity over the past 18 months, as well as how much more burdensome and It's becoming to run a community bank. Between the relative lack of acquirers compared to our footprint Compared to what our footprint has had in the past, our operational platform in strong markets, we believe that we have a compelling story For those banks that are interested. Moving to our 3rd priority, Michael and his team continue to evaluate opportunities Such as last quarter securities trade that improved profitability, optimized capital, while limiting any book value dilution. So To summarize before I hand the call over to Michael, we spent significant time over the past 2 quarters laying a solid foundation.

Speaker 1

We Over the I'm sorry, over the past 2 years laying a solid foundation. We've always felt strongly that the value of our local authority Community Banking model creates value in our footprint. We also feel strongly That we have the process procedures and systems and team in place to scale our model. To that end, we've constructed a balance sheet that should enable us Capitalize on our opportunities. I'm excited to see what our team builds on this foundation over the coming years.

Speaker 1

And at this point, I'm going to let Michael

Speaker 2

This quarter had a number of moving pieces to it. So I'll take a minute to walk through our core earnings. We reported net income of 101,100,000 reported non interest income was about 15,300,000 Adjusting for a loss of $3,000,000 is the last loan in our commercial loan held for sale bucket left the balance sheet and a net loss of $300,000 between sales of OREO and securities, core non interest income was $18,700,000 of which $10,200,000 came from banking. We reported non interest expense of $80,200,000 adjusting for $4,000,000 of severance, Early retirement and branch closure expenses and $1,800,000 of FDIC special assessment from the bank failures earlier this year, Core non interest expense was $74,400,000 $63,700,000 of which came from banking. Altogether adjusted pre tax pre provision earnings were $45,400,000 and banking adjusted pre tax pre provision earnings were 47,500,000 Going into more detail on the margin at 3.46%, Our net interest margin held in better than expected as cost of interest bearing deposits increased by 7 basis points in the quarter, while contractual yield on loans This was the Q1 that the increase in yield on assets has outstripped the increase on cost of liabilities And the Q1 of growth in net interest income since the Q3 of 2022 and we are optimistic about that inflection.

Speaker 2

Although it's fewer days in the quarter, this will likely be difficult to replicate in the Q1 of 'twenty four. For the month of December, our contractual yield on loans held for investment was 6.44 percent and yield on new commitments in December were coming in around 8.1%. 49% of our loan portfolio remains floating with $2,000,000,000 in those variable rate loans repricing immediately with the move in rates And $1,850,000,000 of those loans repricing within 90 days of a change in interest rates. Of the $4,500,000,000 in fixed rate loans, have $336,000,000 maturing in the first half of twenty twenty four with a yield of 6.4 percent and $213,000,000 maturing in the second half of 'twenty four with a yield of 6.37 percent or combined $550,000,000 maturing through year end 2024 With a weighted average yield of 6.39 percent. For the month of December, cost of interest bearing deposits was 3.44 Percent versus 3.40 for the quarter.

Speaker 2

As we focus on exiting some of our more transactional higher cost public funds in 2023, We expect to have less build on subsequent runoff of public funds than we have in years past. We ended the year with $1,600,000,000 on balance sheet at year end And expect those balances to increase slightly during the Q1 before they begin their seasonal outflow in the second quarter. Another evolution in our deposit base is the amount of index deposits that we currently have, which was not a significant number for us in the past. We now have $2,800,000,000 in deposit accounts that will reprice immediately with a change in the Fed funds target rate. Looking at CDs, we have $694,000,000 at a weighted average cost of 4% set to reprice in the first half of the year.

Speaker 2

The current weighted average rate for those deposits would be priced in there is approximately 30 basis points higher than the maturing deposits. We do expect some slight contraction in the margin and are maintaining our prior guidance for the margin being in the 3.30 to 3.40 range over the next two quarters As public funds build seasonally. Moving to non interest income, non mortgage non interest income continues to Performed the $10,000,000 to $11,000,000 range and we expect that to remain in that band plus or minus the next few quarters. Our non interest expense saw the benefit of the actions we took in the 3rd quarter as adjusted banking segment expenses were $63,700,000 As I discussed previously, we had some expected noise this quarter. And as of now, we are unaware of any one time charges to expect in 2024.

Speaker 2

As I mentioned last quarter, our expectation for banking segment expenses for 2024 would be approximately $255,000,000 to 260,000,000 We would anticipate mortgage related expenses of $45,000,000 to $50,000,000 for 2024. In all told, we anticipate total non interest expenses of 305 $310,000,000 for 2024. The caveats for that expense guidance would be that $255,000,000 to $260,000,000 of banking Do not include any significant revenue producer hires and that mortgage could tick higher interest rate log volumes pick up. On the ACL and credit quality, credit remained benign this quarter as we experienced 4 basis points of recoveries and We experienced net charge offs of less than one basis point for the year. In 6 of our 8 years as a public company, we've had charge offs of less than 10 basis points And in 4 of those years, we've had charge offs of 2 basis points or less.

Speaker 2

We had the last of our commercial loans held for sale leave the balance sheet. From close of the Franklin merger to today, we ultimately realized a $7,200,000 net gain on that portfolio relative to our initial mark. And as Chris mentioned, we reduced our outstanding construction balances by 16% or $260,000,000 during the year, and we reduced unfunded commitments for construction loans by 56% or 913,000,000 as well. Our ratio of construction loans to bank level Tier 1 capital plus ACL is 93%, which is just outside of our targeted operating range Of 85% to 90%. Related to the decline in construction balances this quarter, we did see our multifamily increases Our ratio of ACL to loan held for investment increased by 3 basis points during the quarter to 1.6%, But our provision expense was only $305,000 as continued decline in unfunded commitments led to a $2,800,000 release in reserves on unfunded commitments.

Speaker 2

We feel well reserved for the current economic outlook and don't expect material movements in our ratio of ACL to loans absent a material change And the consensus outlook. On capital, we have built significant excess capital and now stand at over 12% common equity Tier 1 And have a 9.7 percent tangible common equity to tangible assets, which puts us solidly positioned. While there's still a broad range of potential economic outcomes for 2024, we feel very comfortable with where we stand, should there be any downturn and are increasingly ready to I will now turn the call back over to

Speaker 1

Chris. All right. Thank you, Michael. And this concludes our prepared remarks. Again, thank you for your interest.

Speaker 1

And operator, at this point, we'd like to open the line for questions. Michael and myself are here together. Travis Edmonson is on the phone with us, our Chief Banking Officer. He was not able to be here in person because we're under the same Snowstorm that a lot of folks around the country are and we're snowed in, in Downtown Nashville and he's in Downtown Knox, but he is with us on the phone. So operator, we'll open it up for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. And our first question will come from Catherine Mealor of KBW. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Thanks. Good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Catherine. Good morning, Catherine. I

Speaker 3

thought I'd start with the margin and it was you had some nice Kind of positive momentum in the margin this quarter and truly appreciate the guidance for the 1st part of the year, still coming down a little bit in the $3.30 to $3.40 range just given public funds and kind of movement in the funding base. But I'm just kind of curious More broadly, how you're thinking about how your balance sheet will react when we start to get rate cuts? And I thought the index deposit Information you gave, Michael, was really interesting. It feels like a bigger number than I appreciated at $2,800,000,000 And so if you could just kind of walk us through how you're thinking about How quickly your deposit base could respond when you start to see rate cuts and then how you think about the kind of the balance or The loan side, as well, just so we can kind of price in potentially where that margin could go once we start to see Fed cuts? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes, perfect. Good morning, Catherine. Good morning. So the $2,800,000,000 in index deposits is something, as Chris mentioned, kind of the balance The last 2 years that we've really been cognizant of, in years past, we didn't have that lever. And so Our deposit costs lagged when rates went down.

Speaker 2

So that's been something we've really focused on. We are Slightly asset sensitive still. So I would expect if there were Material rate cuts that you would see some NIM compression, but we feel like we've taken a lot of that staying out. If you think back to 2020, when we saw some pretty large NIM compression with the rapid drop in rates, So we are prepared for that, but we feel like we're a much better balance. The deposits repriced Effectively, the index ones will reprice as soon as the Fed cuts.

Speaker 2

A lot of the loan side is either indexed To prime or to some other treasury rates and they take sometimes 90 days. So it is a Slower move down on the loan side. And then of course, for the non index deposits, We'll have to be very cognizant of moving those down in line with Raich from a management perspective as well. Hey, Catherine.

Speaker 1

I would just add one other point. Remember, we were probably faster to rise On deposit costs than some others, especially the bigger national And super regional banks, and listening to a few results on Friday from Some of those banks, they think their costs are going to continue to rise. But what part of our index was a value play Customers, but it's also a play that we thought they were going to rise anyway and we think that index Should allow those to move down a little more with a little more speed than maybe some others. So a little faster rise, but we'll take a little faster On the deposit side.

Speaker 3

And then in terms of growth, I know, Chris, you mentioned at some point you think you'll return to that 10% to 12% Loan growth rate. What's your I know it's a crystal ball target of the timing, but just as you kind of see Your pipeline and the outlook near term, where do you think the growth looks like maybe for the 1st part of the year or at least for 2024 kind of how are you thinking about the size of the balance sheet?

Speaker 1

Yes. So, and I'll say this before, I'm joking here, Catherine, but no, I did not say 10% to 12% loan growth rate. I said 10% to 12% growth rate And I'd make that sort of wisecrack because I specifically took the word loan out of that for our whole team Because that growth rate has to be both loan and deposit growth rate ultimately for us to be successful. And so we're thinking both sides of the balance sheet when we say that 10% to 12% and we've lagged sometimes on the deposit side, but That's an important really important metric for us. But specifically to your question, on the loan side, I'm sorry, in terms of growth in the first half of the year, probably going to be a little slower.

Speaker 1

We're saying Mid single digits, frankly, we're not terribly confident one way or another in what growth is going to look like in the first half of the year. So we're kind of projecting mid single digits And we're hopeful that that will be the case. We don't think it will be higher than that in the early part of the year, but we think the later part of the year Actually, we could pick up some momentum is where our head is. And part of that is because we're still doing a little bit of really managing Our concentrations and have a still while we're optimist and we We think good things about the economy both locally and nationally. We think it's still a time to be fairly prudent on Really prudent actually on concentrations over the next couple of quarters as we think the economy gains stay throughout the year.

Speaker 3

Great. I totally appreciate that loan and deposit clarification. So really important to thank you for highlighting that. Yes. Good quarter, guys.

Speaker 1

Thank you. It's important for us to reinforce it to our team Seems like daily, so I want to just make sure we reinforce it to everybody. It's important it's an important metric for us.

Operator

The next question comes from Brett Rabatin of Hovde Group. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning, Chris and Michael.

Speaker 2

Hey, Brad. Good morning.

Speaker 4

Wanted just to start off with the deposit strategy from here. Your cost of Funds has leveled out, but you're still having some creep in the various components away from non interest bearing DDA. And I know that the public funds have A bit of decision process with what those cost. Can you maybe talk about I saw the Hyatt Circle Partners announcement this morning. Can you maybe talk about your This year and as Catherine noted, it's great to see that you've got quite a bit of index deposits or repriced lower.

Speaker 4

But maybe if you're growing loans at a good pace, how do you grow deposits at a similar level?

Speaker 2

Yes, Brett.

Speaker 1

A couple of things. Growing deposits is a longer term business proposition It is just hard work. And so that's what and that's I wish I could tell you we had a magic bullet, we don't. We Again, it'll be growing customer deposits. We say often our balance sheet It is not wholesale, it's customers on both the loan and deposit side.

Speaker 1

So it's hand to hand combat. And that's also why When we're answering Catherine's question that we emphasize it all the time. So there's no magic bullets. It's just we do have but some advantages. We do have a retail component As well as a commercial component to that, we Are doing some work to really redefine, reinforce our value proposition on that side and Just takes focus and execution and so that's what we anticipate in 2024.

Speaker 1

You mentioned High Circle. We do have banking as a service capability. I don't want that I don't want to for us, that's perhaps different than some others. We really Weighed into that as opposed to dive into that. It's not a strategy that we really even We're counting on from a let's say from a budget projection standpoint, but we have the capability and that's a lever.

Speaker 1

We try to keep levers On the deposit side and the funding side, I mentioned the fact that we focus on the customer Balances notice we do as you know, we do very little on the wholesale side. That's always a lever to help us Sort of even out our loan growth, but it's never a long term play for us. And so all of those strategies come into play on the deposit side. Again, it's not

Speaker 4

Okay. That's helpful. And then Michael, you've been helpful with the multifamily market Here in Nashville and I've seen some discounting, but and some free rent months, but perhaps that's actually healthy, just kind of given the strength of the market. Wanted just to talk a little bit about multifamily and just how you see that space playing out for Middle Tennessee this year?

Speaker 2

Yes, and I'll let Travis jump in here because he's the expert. But While we have seen a lot of units absorbed specifically in that from the last 12 months, as you're aware and Pretty much everybody on the call, I'm sure, although you're local, we got about 20,000 units coming online. And so I think it takes a couple of years to probably absorb that. Still seeing the positive in migration. I think the latest count is 96 people a day or something.

Speaker 2

That's what I saw in the business journal. So I think That it gets absorbed over time, but there's certainly a lot to absorb and concessions have picked up, I think for new Communities are for communities. So just going to take a little bit and hopefully bring down some of these rent prices, I would say, For the people maybe to end. Travis, is there anything you'd add to that?

Speaker 5

No, I think that's pretty spot on, We are worried about the absorption, but we're not super worried about it. There is a lot of new units coming on, but they seem to be absorbing at a normalized pace. The waiting lists are not as drastic as they used to be. So people are having a little bit easier time finding a unit. Before some people could be on waiting list for many, many months.

Speaker 5

So there's still some demand out there, but we're keeping a close eye on it, especially We don't have a whole lot of exposure to Downtown Nashville multifamily where most of those units are coming on. So overall, we think it's still a healthy area. We still think multifamily is a healthy asset class, but We're not jumping in to try to do more construction in that arena.

Speaker 4

Okay. One last quick one. I'm finishing up Jim Ayers' book, which is really good. And I was Curious just culturally if there's anything from his presence that you think is a key point for the FPK franchise in terms of What he's instilled in either management or rank and file people?

Speaker 1

Yes, Brett. I'd say the list is long and Jim's Presidents, even today, I mean he's not here in the office every day, but he is absolutely 100% Keyed in include in to what goes on with the company. He still owns 22% of the company. And so you won't find A higher, more respected guy in our eyes in terms of His legacy around here and I said it's a legacy, but it continues today. His presence continues today.

Speaker 1

Here's one, but as just off the cuff response to your question, it's funny I was Thinking of this quote, just this morning, one of the things that he and I used to say back and forth to each other all the time was, Don't get effort confused with results. And that was a line we would use a lot towards each other and Others in the company and if you go back to our performance, our financial performance, we usually talk about our financial performance post The IPO because it's all that's all on the record and documented and it's when you're a private company it's less so. But if you look at our performance record For almost a decade before we were a public company, It would have still it would have ranked very, very high among a peer group. And so That DNA of performance and winning is the one thing I would say that is Jim Aire's Strongest legacy is at the end of the day, it's all about winning. That's weaved into the company's DNA and that comes directly from Jim

Speaker 6

Okay. Great. Appreciate all the color.

Speaker 2

Sure. Thanks, Brett.

Operator

The next question comes from Thomas Wendler of Stephens. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning everyone.

Speaker 2

Hi, Tom. Good morning, Tom.

Speaker 7

Last quarter, we saw C and D balances contract in line with your guidance down to the 93% of capital you highlighted earlier. Can you give us any more color on your expectations for your C and D moving forward into 2024 and maybe any of the other concentrations you're managing?

Speaker 1

Yes. Travis, I'm going to let you comment. I'm going to make just a couple of comments. We've got, oh man, I don't know, dozens of concentration management Metrics beneath the headline metrics that become public And the one a couple I'll comment on, C and D, Michael actually made some reference to We'd like to manage that down closer to say the 85% where maybe up to 90%, it's at 93%. So We view that as just for our sort of risk tolerance and risk appetite that we would We manage it down just a little bit from where it is, but it's in a very manageable range right now.

Speaker 1

Same way on overall CRE, we're at 265, again, we would manage that down just a little bit from where we are. We'd be down 250 or less or so. Just again, just Very manageable from where we are, but we'd like to manage each of those down just a little bit. And then we manage a couple of the ones that just Come to mind, all of the major asset classes, but even within those, I think about managing Sally within CRE, I think about it, which we don't want to get to eye right now. We've talked about multifamily.

Speaker 1

We're watching that concentration Fairly closely. And then I think it goes all the way down to concentration in things like rent to own and things like that where we have Some specific concentration limits. And so Michael or Travis, either one you have any other comment on that?

Speaker 5

The only other comment I would have is that we do watch multiple concentrations internally. Obviously, the ones that we're getting a lot of the headlines right now, which is office and multifamily, which we just talked about, those are higher on our list. We're within our tolerances Internally on those and so we don't have a hard stop, but we'll be very mindful of any time we get a request in those categories. And then Chris alluded to the ADC, did a really good job explaining that. So we still have a ways to go in reducing our exposure to ADC.

Speaker 5

We're probably in that 75% to 85% range is where we want to be over the next few quarters and quite frankly we would want to stay there. So Not significant growth in that category over the coming quarters.

Speaker 2

Yes. Tom, I'd say on the other side of the balance sheet gets less focused externally, we have deposit concentrations that we're constantly monitoring As well around municipal deposits, public funds, CDs types, stuff like that. So A lot of focus internally on that granular deposit base that Chris talked about and relationships. And so It goes for both sides of the balance sheet when you're managing

Speaker 7

concentration. That was a lot of great color. I really appreciate that.

Speaker 1

Sure. The other thing I would say is just a point of commentary is We consider that a really strong risk management on the liquidity side, because where you Look, 2023 was a and we talk about, I think I used the word granular maybe 3 times in my prepared comments, but really we're thinking loans and deposits there, but We view that as a really strong risk mitigant is the granularity of both those loan and deposit And so we actually manage that quite closely because we think Again, that's a really strong risk mitigant and it's a really big liquidity advantage for us if things We experienced things like we did in March of 'twenty three again. And with The way that money moves today, again, we like our position.

Speaker 7

Thank you for that. And then just one more for me, moving over to mortgage. I appreciate the mortgage visibility is usually pretty poor, But can you give us an idea of how you're thinking about mortgage in 2024?

Speaker 2

Yes, Tom. Obviously, mortgage had a tough 4th quarter, specifically in the year kind of fell off volume wise off the cliff the last couple of weeks of the year, even though the rates were A bit lower, we've seen mortgage kind of come back to life here in the 1st couple of weeks of January. We don't expect Mortgage to be a huge contributor in 2024. We also don't expect mortgage to lose money. And yes, there are some benefits Yes, the held for sale pipeline spits off interest income.

Speaker 2

So there's some other benefits, but it's A core piece of the company, Chris talked about retail earlier. Think mortgage is very important piece of the retail story and something that is a critical product. And I think brighter days are ahead for the mortgage industry, but the whole industry is not out of the woods yet and we'll see How things develop with rates, but also affordability within the industry, Which is a challenge in most of our markets.

Speaker 7

All right. Thank you for that.

Speaker 1

Hey, Tom, I'm going to add this one thing on mortgage. 2 things 2 or 3 things. 1, we had a good quarter. We felt like a pretty good pretty solid Foundational quarter in spite of mortgage. Mortgage did not have a good quarter.

Speaker 1

And so when we look at it, There are no sacred cows in any part of our business, including mortgage. So it stays under constant analysis, again, just like all the Other parts of our business, one of the things that we recognize that we don't talk a lot about is we don't give any Net interest income, credit, we don't give any credit for that part of our business on what happens to net interest income, which that's That distorts the profitability picture just a little bit. It's a business that doesn't take a lot of capital outside of the mortgage servicing The other part, the origination part of the business doesn't take much capital and it has a significant upside. And as Michael said, from a retail standpoint, We think it's a key customer acquisition part of our go forward retail strategy. And so As we look into next year, we think that we don't have a lot.

Speaker 1

Matter of fact, we really don't have much at all in our Projections for next year and but we will also we will make sure we ensure against any downside. And so that's How we're viewing it as we're stepping forward here.

Speaker 7

All right. Those are my questions. Thank you guys and good quarter.

Speaker 1

Thank you,

Operator

Tom. The next question comes from Alex Lau of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Alex.

Speaker 8

Following up on the comment around Reduction of construction concentration and looking at the impact of your provision forecast, do you expect this to be front loaded in the year or more gradual throughout the year?

Speaker 1

Good question. It will be perhaps slightly front loaded, But I'd say just slightly front loaded because like I said, where we are, we're at 93%. We don't want to go up from here. And so you could see a little more front loading and we'll gradually work it down from here So you could see a little more front loading, but again, once We get down in the 85 range, you'll see it begin to be much more gradual.

Speaker 2

Yes. And Alex, you have 2 kind of phenomenon there, right? You have the As they go from unfunded, as those balances are reduced, that creates a release from the unfunded bucket. And then you have migration on the ACL As you go from a construction reserve of 2.53 percent to Call it a multifamily or CRE bucket. While those balances go up, you can You stay in that kind of weighted 160 range, but it creates a little bit less impact.

Speaker 2

So To Chris' point, it will be gradual, but that's where you see some of that release coming from.

Speaker 8

Thank you. And then my follow-up question. Can you give some color on the C and I loans that moved into non accrual this quarter? Are these idiosyncratic or is there any trend that you would highlight there?

Speaker 2

Travis, do you want to take that one? I'll add some color.

Speaker 5

Sure. Good morning, Alex. The C and I loans that moved this quarter were just kind of one offs. There was no pattern or anything we've seen and we still can See just normal course loans moving in and out of the classified assets moving into special mention moving out, upgrades, downgrades. So it's still pretty normal out there in what we're seeing in credit quality.

Speaker 5

In fact, the one credit we talked about last quarter, That's got a lot of positive momentum and so that one is trending where it probably won't be an issue in the coming months if everything We're cautiously optimistic if everything keeps going the way it is. So no systemic issues that we're seeing right now. It's just continual portfolio management and You always have 1 or 2 that you're worried about.

Speaker 8

Thank you. And one follow-up question on NIM and NII. You mentioned moving back to that 3.30, 3.40 range and also some optimism on in an inflection point in NII, maybe in the second quarter. What are you assuming for the rate curve scenario?

Speaker 2

Yeah. Alex, we're probably a little bit of an outlier in the way we think about rates because We don't see a whole lot of impetus to lower rates. And I was watching CNBC this morning and they were talking about the forward rate curve, A CEO of a slightly larger financial institution was talking about it at Davos and they had 4 priced in and 4 in 20 5. So we kind of think about it as basically status quo in our kind of budgeted numbers. And would just expect to see, as Chris mentioned, needing when you need deposit growth, you have deposit growth, we've got to grow core relationships.

Speaker 2

But We also believe in a fair customer proposition, value proposition. And so we think that That includes paying interest on deposits. So that's where that lower Net interest margin comes from and just composition, but the forward curve has been wrong for the last 2 years. And so we've been we're slightly less conservative there. Yes.

Speaker 2

We

Speaker 1

could have a bump 4.2 down in the second half. Again, just our view and it's worth less than as Michael said the view that you could have gotten on CNBC this morning from a much larger bank CEO. But Again, we don't see the moves down that are being forecasted And we could get a couple in the second half of the year, is more our view, as we think about moving forward.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks for answering my questions.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Alex. Thanks, Alex.

Operator

The next question comes from Stephen Scouten of Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Speaker 6

Hi, Stephen. Good morning, Porter.

Speaker 9

So what's worse, even less than Your view on rates will be my view on rates, but I'm with you. I don't really see what the forward curve is telling us today. That said, If we did see more cuts in 2024 and 2025, can you help frame up the potential for what the mortgage Business could return on from a profitability standpoint today in an upside scenario. So obviously, it's a very different business than it was In 2021 when we last had probably a pretty robust market there. So just trying to think about how to frame that up.

Speaker 2

Yes, Stephen, I think there's pent up demand out there, specifically for first time homebuyers. You know people, it's a 6% mortgage rates a lot different than the 8%. So you could see some refinance activity. There's very likely if you kind of read all the publications that there's people that have been waiting to move because they don't want to get out of a 3% or 4% mortgage. So I think there's upside.

Speaker 2

As you mentioned, I don't think you have a $25,000,000 $30,000,000 mortgage contribution year because we've, As Chris said, taking a lot of the downside off the table has been a process. And so with that, you take some of the upside off. But I think you could certainly see margin return to a respectable level And have a high single digit, low double digit kind of mortgage contribution if rates move down far enough, because there's still a lot of people want to be in our markets and they're moving here and looking to buy houses. So we're a purchase oriented retail origination shop, about 85 Percent of our loans are purchased, which does create refinance opportunities down the road with those customers, but Our focus is on building business that way in the purchase market.

Speaker 1

Yes, Stephen. Thanks, Tom. Great. I think also a couple of things. The business has thinned out and will thin out even further from both independent mortgage companies, Also some of your largest banks that have exited.

Speaker 1

And so I think it actually creates a pretty nice spot for, I'll call it the larger regionals and the smaller regionals both. And so I think there I think that's a reason. We analyze, as I said earlier, hey, why are we in the business Do we need to be in the business? And the answer is yes. We do think there's an upside.

Speaker 1

And so if you think also about there's some pent up purchase demand. So as rates stabilize and maybe even move down just a little bit that probably kicks Up the purchase demand which improves the outlook. And then if you get 6 or 8 rate bumps down when that does eventually happen even if it's 2 years from now that That's a catalyst for the refinance market, which will probably kick in, in a Significant way once you get to that level of rate decreases. And so that's that again when you add to it Our retail side, which we think it's important to and you add to it the fact that we it's a contributor to our net interest income. We like all those pieces of it.

Speaker 9

Yes, that sounds good. Okay. Curious, you noted your kind of second priority from a capital strategy standpoint is kind of M and A, If you just back rank those, but you also noted this local decision making prowess versus a centralized approach being a great benefit to you, which I would agree. Is there a point where you think, hey, we do a couple more deals, we get to a certain size where you're no longer able to have that structure? Or is that kind of integral To how you guys think about running the bank irrespective of size moving forward?

Speaker 1

Yes. Again, Insightful question, Stephen. And we're pretty emphatic on the answer. It's integral to how we run the bank. And so when we talk about It's been 2 years to take a step back and really kind of evaluate our structure, evaluate our efficiency, evaluate our scalability.

Speaker 1

We think that's the right way to run the bank. And so we thought about when we think about every day, we're not finished. Scalability and we think about risk also. There's Not only credit risk, which has perhaps most the most traditional risk Type of risk that you think about, when we think about compliance risk, we think about Reputational risk, all of those things with that model. And so we've been very thoughtful in We continue to design it for the long term.

Speaker 1

And so we do think, look, if we do An acquisition that adds, I don't know, dollars 2,000,000,000 to $3,000,000,000 in assets to the company or and then another one that adds another $2,000,000 $3,000,000 and then another one that adds 5, We think the model is still going to be the model and we think that's important And we think it's a very significant competitive advantage for the types of The Tushan is that we'd like to partner with and we think would like to partner with us because they typically going to have some retail density to them, A big deposit side, big deposits are just really key to us. And we think that's important. And so we've designed it to continue that model, a good question, one that we ask ourselves all the time.

Speaker 9

That's great, helpful. And then maybe just lastly for me, and this is Kind of super high level and you may not have an answer for this, but the market seems to have gotten the banking segment Wrong throughout a lot of the last half of 'twenty three, right? It was well

Speaker 7

as me, well as me, and then all

Speaker 9

of a sudden we got this huge run since November. I'm just kind of wondering at a high from a high level business perspective, has there been anything that surprised you to the upside, whether it's continued credit performance, Customers' acceptance of higher loan rate and just kind of as you look at your markets in the business, anything that's kind of been a surprise either to the positive or the negative?

Speaker 1

Yes, I'll give a maybe a thing or 2 and Michael and Travis you guys Champion if there's something. One thing is as we went through the challenges of 2020 3 where the 2 biggest in my mind, the 2 biggest ones were the failures in March And there are the failures in the early half of the year of Silicon Valley, Signature The fact of the matter is our customers didn't never We've wavered in terms of confidence in our institution. And so we prepared like crazy with Messages and with materials to show our safety and soundness, but our customers, It was almost like, I know you're safe. I know I'm in a good spot. And so that was a big positive surprise, I would say in the

Speaker 2

same with I'd say what's been

Speaker 1

a positive surprise is as rates have gone up and if treasuries Have really the interest rates interest that you can earn on treasury versus maybe a deposit account. Again, the willingness of customers to have a conversation about that instead of you just finding out the money is gone. And We going back to I think it was Catherine's question and some others about how we really think about that fairness of value as Part of our value proposition and customers understand that and that's been a positive surprise.

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, not a surprise to us, Stephen, but I think maybe a surprise to the industry, the downfall of The community banking system, which was all over the news headlines in March, April, We actually, as Chris mentioned, we're steadfast in the other quarter and I think that that's been proven out. In fact, we hear From customers all the time that they still believe in and really back to your other question, the model, the local decision making, the serving of the customers, I'd say. So not a surprise to us, but maybe a surprise to the aforementioned CNBC crowd a little bit,

Speaker 9

Great, guys. So that's super helpful. I appreciate all the commentary there.

Speaker 1

Hey, Steven, I got one more. Yes, surprise. That deposit insurance remains and it's maybe it's not a surprise, but this is The cost of insurance remains antiquated would be a surprise that it's not surprised because We have trouble getting anything out of Washington, but the deposit insurance System needs to be reform and there needs to be some thoughtful folks that change how Deposits get insured. And at the end of the day, that side of the FDIC, the insurance side of the FDIC It's a big mutual insurance company with the banks that are the customers and therefore the owners and the funders of that. And We regulatory from a by law and regulation, we're kind of barred from doing much with it.

Speaker 1

But it's a surprise that we just can't get any momentum to modernize it. So

Speaker 9

Yes. Yes. I second that plea.

Speaker 2

I agree with you. Thanks, Chris.

Speaker 1

All right. Very good. Thanks, man.

Operator

The next question comes from Freddie Strickland of Janney Montgomery Scott. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Eddie, good morning, gentlemen.

Speaker 6

Good morning, Eddie. Good morning.

Speaker 10

Just wanted to ask a clarifying point to kick off on the public Funds flow, so it sounds like that was deliberate that they were a little lower than what we would normally see this quarter. Will we see still some flow in the Q1? And then it sounds like going forward, the Impacts from public funds should be a little lower, just as you said, you're prioritizing some more of the relationship public funds. Is that right?

Speaker 2

Yes, Petti, good morning. It's Michael. Definitely deliberate in the 4th quarter And really going forward, I kind of put in a plug for deposit concentration, deposit management. We have a lot of really solid relationships on the public fund side, so I don't want that to get lost. And we have actual Core deposit relationships where these are strong customers.

Speaker 2

Where we really focused in on is some of the more transactional higher Interest kind of excess funds, there's a couple of things going on there. Some other financial institutions were still paying Fed Funds Plus on some of those deposits, which we just were not willing to do on excess interest. And then, yes, there's some state funded insurance deposit rates that are actually pretty high right now. And so some of those It's just better for those municipalities. Yes, they're doing what's best for their taxpayers.

Speaker 2

And so they move some funding over there. I would expect Q1, right, you got Taxes coming in, you still see some of that flow higher in the Q1. So you'll still see it, but we are managing it just like we manage All of our other relationships and trying to be fair to everyone, shareholders and institutions and our customers. So Expected to flow up, we're really working on that being a much smaller impact to the overall deposit base.

Speaker 10

Understood. That's helpful. And kind of along the same line of questioning, I think, Chris, you may have briefly mentioned this earlier, but can you talk about how you view broker deposits as part of your funding base going forward? I mean, do we see those Decline all the way to 0 or is there some small degree that maybe stays on the balance sheet as a sort of asset liability management tool? Yes.

Speaker 1

So the way that we use broker deposits, if you notice they went down this quarter and We use we do not use brokered deposits as To fund our loan growth, okay. For us, it's a vehicle that we will use to Maybe lower our cost our overall cost of funding at different points when We see some value in that particular funding channel. But that's why you will see it go to 0 from time to time. And you matter of fact, if you went over the last 5 years, if you went pre Franklin Transaction, you would have seen it sit at 0 for long periods of time. And So we don't use it.

Speaker 1

We view it as we don't use it to fund growth. We use it as one more Funding source to basically lower our cost of overall funding and that's why we're in and out of it from time to time.

Speaker 10

Got it. That makes sense. One last quick one for me. Just I think I pegged the 50 7% core bank efficiency ex mortgages quarter. I think last quarter, we were talking about potentially getting down in the mid-50s on the Core bank on efficiency.

Speaker 10

Do you still think that's potentially achievable in 2024 even with all these moving parts?

Speaker 1

Yes, we do actually think it's potentially achievable. The key is what happens on the revenue side. We're going to continue to manage the expense very closely and tightly throughout 2024 and frankly every day always. We want to make sure that we're doing that. And so it's a little bit dependent on the revenue side, what happens with the margin, What happens with some of our other income source other revenue sources like mortgage versus

Speaker 10

Got it. Thanks for taking my question.

Speaker 1

Appreciate it, Betty.

Operator

The next question comes from Steve Moss of Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Good morning, guys.

Speaker 6

Hey, Steve. Good morning. Just following up here on a couple of things. Maybe just curious where on loan pricing, I'm just curious what you guys are seeing for new and renewals with regard to C and I and CRE loans these days.

Speaker 2

Yes, Steve, it's Michael and Travis you jump in here just Whenever, but new loans commitments coming in about over 8% still, I think we're about 8.10% in December. So when Scott was asking earlier about surprises for the year, I mean, we did we have seen our customers adjust Up to the new normal, which is 8% plus on loans and commitments. And so That has been a positive been that way for the better part of the back half of the year for sure. And we continue to see that. Even though kind of longer term treasuries have come down, it has an adjusted kind of loan pricing The way we see it, which is typically more towards the short end of the curve.

Speaker 2

So, Travis, anything you'd add to that?

Operator

No, I think that's spot on.

Speaker 6

Okay, that's helpful. And then just curious, Chris, you spoke earlier in Call about M and A and your expectations for transactions to increase over the next 12 to 18 months. Just curious has the pace of discussions Picked up here since October, November.

Speaker 1

No, It has not. As a matter of fact, we think probably the best discussion, I'd say, over the You get in the holidays and not a lot of discussions. So for us anyway, keep in mind, this is Research of 1 here, you'll hear from others as we go throughout earnings season, but we haven't seen a pickup Really, to be just I mean, that's call it like you see, we haven't seen a pickup in conversation.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. Most of my questions have been asked and answered, so really appreciate all the color here.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Chris Holmes for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

All right. Thank you all very much for joining us. Again, we always appreciate your interest and support, and we will Look forward to a great 2024. Thanks, everybody.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation and you may now disconnect.

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