Steel Dynamics Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
January 24, 2024

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Steel Dynamics 4th Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After management's remarks, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time. Please be advised this call is being recorded today, January 24, 2024, and your participation implies consent to our recording this Call. If you do not agree to these terms, please disconnect.

Operator

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to David Lipchitz, Director, Investor Relations, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Holly. Good morning, and welcome to Steel Dynamics' Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and will be available on our website for replay later today. Leading today's call are Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Steel Dynamics Teresa Wagner, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Barry Schneider, President and Chief Operating Officer. The other members of our senior leadership team are joining us on the call individually.

Speaker 1

Some of today's statements, which speak only as of this date, may be forward looking and predictive, typically preceded by believe, expect, anticipate or words of similar meaning. They are intended to be protected by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act 1995 should actual results turn out differently. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties related to integrating or starting up new assets, the aluminum industry, the use of estimates and assumptions in connection with anticipated project returns and our steel, metals recycling and fabrication businesses as well as to general business and economic conditions. Examples of these are described in the related press release as well as in our annual filed SEC Form 10 ks under the headings Forward looking statements and risk factors found on the Internet at www.sec.gov and if applicable in any later SEC Form 10 Q. You'll also find any referenced non GAAP financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the press release issued yesterday entitled CLDynamics reports 4th quarter and full year 2023 results.

Speaker 1

And now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Mark.

Speaker 2

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for being with us on our Q4 and full year 2023 earnings call. As you saw in our release, our teams achieved a strong annual 2023 financial and operational performance. I think most gratifying was achieving our best safety year with the lowest recordable incident rate ever.

Speaker 2

I want to applaud and congratulate all the teams because that is The monumental effort put into to get there. Steel shipments were record 12,800,000 tons. I think it needs to be emphasized that we've got 3,000,000 tons yet of additional shipping capability to leverage. We had the 2nd best year for revenues at $18,800,000,000 and cash flow from operations of $3,500,000,000 Adjusted EBITDA was $3,700,000,000 I think the year clearly demonstrated the through cycle earnings resilience of our business model as manifest by a diverse value add product portfolio supported by a superior operating culture driving world class low cost operations. I can't be more pleased at Centum.

Speaker 2

Centum is showing significant operating improvement with EBITDA positive in December with a clear path to profitability in the Q1 of 2024 and thereafter. We're also achieving fast paced progress On our aluminum flat rolled investments, there continues to be strong commercial support for a new and innovative supply chain solution from Steel Dynamics, The aluminum industry is considering a well known and highly regarded metals producer. I'm incredibly proud of the Steel Dynamics team. They are the foundation of our company and they drive our success. And to be honest, they inspire me.

Speaker 2

Feeling their esprit de corps and commitment to the SDI family during the recent holiday parties was absolutely just simply humble. And that is why we are so focused on providing the very best for their health, safety and welfare. We're actively engaged in safety at all times and at every level, keeping it top of mind in an active conversation each and every day. As I already suggested, with that focus, The team's safety performance was a record low incident rate in 2023. Obviously, though, there's more to do.

Speaker 2

We will not rest until we consistently achieve our goal 0 injuries. So that said, I will hand it to Teresa, who will then bet the ball to Barry and then back to me to finish up. So Teresa?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for being with us today. In addition to the achievements Mark just mentioned, The teams also achieved our 3rd best year for operating income of $3,200,000,000 and net income of $2,500,000,000 or $14.64 per diluted share. Cash flow from operations and liquidity of $3,500,000,000 and a 3 year after tax return on invested capital of 32%, a truly great performance.

Speaker 3

My sincere thank you and congratulations to our entire team. As for the Q4 of 2023, net income was $424,000,000 or $2.61 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of $659,000,000 4th quarter 2023 revenues of $4,200,000,000 And operating income of $519,000,000 were lower than sequential third quarter results driven by seasonally lower volume and realized steel and steel fabrication pricing. Our steel operations generated operating income of $365,000,000 in the 4th quarter, lower than sequential third quarter results due to lower realized flat rolled steel pricing. Our steel shipments remained steady at 3,100,000 tons. Our 4 new flat rolled coating lines have or will begin operating this quarter, increasing our higher margin value added product mix by an additional 1,000,000 tons, making our capacity and value added in flat roll at 7,000,000 tons on the coating lines.

Speaker 3

For the full year of 2023, operating income from our steel operations was $1,900,000,000 with record annual shipments of 12,800,000 tons. For those of you that track our flat rolled shipments in more specificity, hot rolled coil and P and O shipments were 927,000 tons, cold rolled shipments 124,000 tons and coated shipments of 1,192,000 tons. For metals recycling, 4th quarter operating income was $6,000,000 due to seasonally lower volume and non ferrous metal spread compression. For the full year, operating income from our metals recycling operations was $108,000,000 lower than prior year results based on decreased ferrous scrap pricing more than offsetting higher volume. We're the largest non ferrous and ferrous metals recycler in all of North America, recycling aluminum, copper and other metals.

Speaker 3

The team continues to lever our circular operating model, providing high quality, low cost scrap to our steel mills, which improves furnace efficiency and reduces company wide working capital. Our steel fabrication operations achieved operating income of $250,000,000 in the 4th quarter, lower than sequential third quarter results yet historically strong due to lower pricing and seasonally lower shipments. Our steel fabrication platform had another great year in 2023 with operating income of $1,600,000,000 Congratulations to the team. Our steel joist and deck demand remains solid with good order activity. Our backlog extends through the first half of twenty twenty four and forward pricing remains strong.

Speaker 3

Infrastructure Inflation Reduction Act, The DOE decarbonization support and manufacturing onshoring are expected to support domestic fixed asset investment and related flat and long product steel consumption and related joist and gut consumption as well. During the Q4 of 2023, we generated cash flow from operations of $865,000,000 For the full year, we achieved our 2nd best annual cash flow of $3,500,000,000 Our cash generation is consistently strong based on our differentiated circular business model and highly variable low cost structure. At the end of the year, we had liquidity of $3,500,000,000 During 2023, we invested $1,700,000,000 in capital investments, of which almost 60% related to the construction of our aluminum flat rolled investments. For 2024, we believe capital investments be in the range of $2,000,000,000 of which approximately $1,400,000,000 relates to the aluminum investments. During the Q4, we maintained our cash dividend at 0 point increasing at 25% in the Q1 of 2023.

Speaker 3

During the full year of 2023, we paid cash dividends of $271,000,000 and repurchased $1,500,000,000 or 8% of our outstanding shares, representing a 62% net income shareholder distribution rate. The Board also authorized an additional $1,500,000,000 repurchase program in November and $1,400,000,000 remained available at the end of the year. Since 2017, we've increased our cash dividend per share by 174%, and we've repurchased $5,500,000,000 of our common stock or 37% of our outstanding shares. These actions reflect the strength of our capital foundation and consistently strong cash flow generation capability and the continued optimism and confidence in our future. Our capital allocation strategy prioritizes high return growth where shareholder distributions comprised of a base positive dividend profile that's complemented with a variable share repurchase program, while we remain dedicated to preserving our investment grade credit designation.

Speaker 3

Our free cash flow profile has fundamentally changed over the last 5 years from an annual average of $540,000,000 to $2,800,000,000 We are squarely positioned for the continuation of sustainable optimized long term value creation. Our 3 year after tax return on invested capital of 32% is a testament to our profitable growth. Sustainability is also a significant part of our long term value creation strategy, and we're dedicated to our people, our communities and our environment. We're committed to operating our business with the highest integrity. We have an actionable path forward to carbon neutrality that's more manageable and we believe considerably less expensive than less expensive than lay ahead for many of our industry peers.

Speaker 3

Our sustainability and carbon reduction strategy is an ongoing journey and we're moving forward with the intention to make a positive difference. Thank you for your time this morning. Barry?

Speaker 4

Thanks, Theresa. Our steel fabrication operations performed exceptionally well throughout 2023, achieving historically strong earnings. At the end of the year, our steel joist and deck order backlog was solid, extending through the first half of twenty twenty four. We continue to have high expectations for the business. Continued onshoring and manufacturing coupled with infrastructure spending and fixed asset investment related to the IRA programs We continue to provide momentum for additional construction spending.

Speaker 4

Equally important, our customers tell us demand remains solid and share our optimism. Current pricing has stabilized at historically higher levels and order entry has improved. Fabrication platform provides meaningful volume support for our steel mills, critical and softer demand environments allowing for higher through cycle steel utilization compared to our peers. It also helps mitigate the financial risk of lower steel prices. Our metals recycling operations also performed well this year, considering the challenge of declining scrap prices throughout much of 2023.

Speaker 4

The North American geographic footprint of our metals recycling platform provides a strategic competitive advantage for our steel mills and for our scrap generating customers. Particular, our Mexican locations competitively advantage our Columbus and Sinton raw material positions. They will strategically support aluminum scrap procurement for our future rolled aluminum investments. Our metals recycling team is also partnering even more closely with both our steel and aluminum teams to expand our scrap separation capabilities through process and technology solutions. This will help mitigate potential prime ferrous scrap supply issues of the future.

Speaker 4

It will also provide us with significant advantage to materially increase recycled content for our aluminum flat rolled products and increase the earnings opportunities. The steel team had another strong year achieving record volume of 12,800,000 tons. During 2023, the domestic steel industry operated at an estimated production utilization rate of 76%, While our steel mills operated at a rate of 93%, excluding the Sinton plant, we consistently operate at higher utilization due to our value added steel product diversification, our differentiated customer supply chain and the support of our internal manufacturing businesses. This higher through cycle utilization of all our steel mills is a key competitive advantage, supporting our strong and growing cash generation capability and best in class financial metrics. Regarding the steel markets, steel pricing improved in the Q4 of 2023 and into January.

Speaker 4

Customer order entry rate has been strong and lead times have been extended, while their inventory levels remain at historically low amounts. In fact, our flat rolled steel operations have experienced one of the strongest order entry environments in January, especially for our value added products. Additionally, steel imports have generally remained at a manageable level with expectations of this to continue. Aspersand and the team has achieved significant improvements in operating efficiency and consistency. They averaged about 65% of capability in November, December and have been running even stronger rates here in January.

Speaker 4

We are planning for Sinton to see additional improvements in production after the team makes changes to certain transformers at the end of this Q1 2024, while we allow access to 100% of our mill capacity versus the current 80% capacity. Additionally, the 2 new value added coating lines will begin operating in the Q1, supporting increased volume and margins. Regarding the steel market environment, automotive production estimates for 2024 are an estimated 16,000,000 units, while automotive dealer inventories remain below historical norms. Non residential construction remains solid as evidenced by the strength of shipments and backlogs Our structural and rail division and customer inventory levels are low. Additionally, on shoring and infrastructure spending should provide meaningful support to fixed asset investment and related construction oriented projects in the coming years.

Speaker 4

As for the energy market, oil and gas activity is strong, driving improved orders for OCTG and solar. Those areas all grow. Looking forward, we are optimistic regarding steel demand and pricing dynamics for 2024. With that, Mark?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Barry. Thanks, Theresa. I think our consistently strong through cycle operating and financial performance continues to support our cash generation and growth investment strategies. As Barry mentioned, the 4 value add flat roll steel coating lines are starting this quarter And SynGen should see a step function improvement, hitting its stride in the Q2 of this year. Our aluminum growth strategy is especially compelling.

Speaker 2

Responses from existing and new customers across all markets remain incredible, only strengthening as we move forward. Many customers have already indicated they would like to build facilities on our rolling mill site in Columbus, Mississippi. This colocation strategy and has already proven itself clearly in that sentence. The project itself, the 650,000 ton aluminum flat roll facility located in Columbus, Mississippi. It's going to be a state of the art plant, obviously, serving the sustainable beverage and packaging, Both all body and TAB, automotive and industrial sectors.

Speaker 2

Roughly 300,000 metric tons of can start, which is about 45% of the output, roughly 200,000 tons of auto and 150,000 tons of industrial and construction products. The on-site melt cast slab capability 600,000 metric tons will be supported by 2 satellite recycled aluminum slab casting centers located in UBC Scrap rich regions, 1 out west and 1 in Central Mexico. The expanded Project scope is including additional scrap processing and treatment to maximize aluminum recycled content. Product plans are still on schedule. Rolling mill should be mid-twenty 25, the Mexico Slab Center at the end of 20 24, and then our Arizona Slab Center around mid-twenty 5.

Speaker 2

The total project cost, As you saw in the release, including the recycled slab centers, has risen to $2,700,000,000 The installation costs for the rolling mill has expanded due to inflationary installation costs that we are all facing. So with virtually all equipment and construction contracts complete, We are confident in this final budget. As we said before, 100 percent to be funded with cash. And the expectation is to have through cycle annual EBITDA of around $650,000,000 to $700,000,000 from the aluminum facility with an additional $40,000,000 to $50,000,000 from Omnisource. I think we're definitely going to see superior financial metrics relative to our competition.

Speaker 2

As we see it, the market environment is similar to the domestic steel industry when we started SDI 30 years ago. Older assets, little reinvestment, heavy legacy costs with inefficient high cost operations. We're confident we can emulate the performance driven high efficiency low cost model that drove our success in steel to drive superior financial metrics. Our organizational mill structure through just advanced layout And technology and our performance driven sort of esprit de corps and culture will drive a census of around about 7.50 people versus typically 2,000 or more in a Similar competitor out there. We will have higher yield through the system.

Speaker 2

We will leverage OmniSource's market position and their separation technologies to ensure higher recycled content. We obviously won't have the legacy burden that others have. We will have production cost efficiencies and along with the customer co location. In the end, we'll also have a preferred sustainability profile. You put it all together, we're confident that our earnings profile is going to be far superior to the industry today.

Speaker 2

We've developed the best financial metrics in the steel industry. And as I said, we have confidence we can do the same in aluminum. Poised for continued growth. We have an additional 3,000,000 tons, as I said earlier, of shipping capability that will be leveraged through our new processing lines, new products and new supply chains. And we're unpassioned by our future growth plans as they will continue to drive the high return growth momentum we have consistently demonstrated over the years.

Speaker 2

We have the highest average 5 year after tax return on investment capital within the S and P 500 Materials Companies. In the last 3 years, we had an average after tax ROIC of 32%. I got to say that just doesn't happen. Our disciplined, intentional organic and acquisition strategy focused on differentiated value added supply chain solutions is providing sustainable cash generation and strong returns. I continue to be optimistic moving forward.

Speaker 2

I believe the market dynamics are in place to support increased demand across our operating platforms in 2024 and the years ahead. North America will benefit from continued onshoring of manufacturing businesses, and the U. S. Will benefit from the allocation of public monies from the Structured Program, Inflation Reduction Act and other public programs. Steel Dynamics is leveraged to benefit from those programs through increased steel joist and deck demand, flat and long product steel demand and the associated higher demand for recycled scrap and aluminum.

Speaker 2

In closing, there's no doubt our teams are our foundation. And I thank each of them for their passion and dedication. We're committed to them. I remind those listening today that safety for yourselves, your families and each other is the highest priority. Our culture and business model continue to positive Differentiate our performance, leading to best in class financial metrics.

Speaker 2

We're no longer a pure steel company, but an integrated metals business providing enhanced supply chain solutions to the industry and in turn mitigating volatility and cash flow generation through all market cycles. We're competitively positioned and continue to focus on providing superior value for our company, customers, team members and shareholders alike. Holly, I would love for you to open it up for questions.

Operator

Thank Your first question for today is coming from Martin Englert with Seaport Research.

Speaker 5

Hello, good morning everyone. Quick question on steel conversion costs were estimated around $5.30 per ton in the Q4 and kind of average around there for the year. Looking ahead at 1Q, taking that point of reference into account, should we expect some decline there based on the ramping of Sinton further and some better fixed cost leverage?

Speaker 3

Good morning, Martin. The way that the information that you guys can use to into our conversion costs. I know it's a little difficult, but you hit the primary driver. With Staunton ramping up as significantly as we're expecting them to do in the Q1 and as they're doing right now in January already, We would expect to see that overall as you calculate conversion costs come down absent any other factors, correct.

Speaker 5

Okay. And any goalpost as far as when we think about what that could potentially decline on a sequential basis. And I understand there might be other offsets there with substrate that's flowing kind of flowing through there as well, but

Speaker 3

It's really hard for us to give you guidance As you know, Martin, as it relates to the conversion costs as you're calculating it, as conversion costs really stand within this The operations themselves, the 2 conversion costs are very stable. We don't expect to see a lot of movement except for sitting again because of the additional volumes. The substrate does have an impact as you mentioned, but we don't expect to see that mix of processing production be dramatically different in the Q1.

Speaker 5

Okay. If I could one follow-up On steel fabrication in the release, you noted improved activity as well as well priced backlog extending through first half of 24. On average, is the backlog price higher or lower than the 4th quarter ASP of $3,500 per ton?

Speaker 3

The backlog prices held in very steadily. There's not a dramatic difference. And again, we don't give as to the backlog pricing for fabrication or for other operations. But the resiliency in the price, both what we're seeing now and in that backlog is very steady.

Speaker 2

I would just add, In the Q4, our belief is that fabrication is kind of troughed in large part. But in the Q4, we had the highest order input rate of the prior six quarters. So volumes will turn. Obviously, you've got a little seasonality in Q1, But the expectation is things will go upward thereafter.

Speaker 5

Your comment on you believe that it's trough, does that pertain to volumes or price or volumes and price?

Speaker 2

I would say that for sure volume and pricing appears to have stabilized.

Speaker 5

Okay. Excellent. Thank you very much and good luck.

Speaker 2

You're welcome.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Tristan Gercer with BNP Paribas.

Speaker 6

Yes, hi. Good morning and thank you for taking the questions. The first one is kind of a follow-up on the fabrication guidance, maybe on the volumes. If we look at the shipments you had in Q4, it's probably the lowest fab shipments we've seen in 5 years. And you mentioned you've seen that trough, but could you explain a little bit what has been holding you back there of late?

Speaker 6

And if we get If we look at 2024, what kind of growth expectation do you foresee for the business? I know you provided some guidance last year on a half on half basis. So anything there would be helpful. That'd be my first question.

Speaker 2

I guess I would just leave it as already stated. The order input rate increased in Q4. That will flow through This year, you always have, as you I know you appreciate sort of seasonality in this Q1 with the winter months and construction being a little inhibited by the weather. But I think we will certainly see a turn into the Q2 and through the rest of the year.

Speaker 6

All right. That's fair. And My second question is more on the CapEx hikes or the project budget hikes. I think you mentioned the aluminum, but I think the biocarbon project also the CapEx has been high. So what drove that?

Speaker 6

And when we look at this, let's say, €300,000,000 budget hike versus prior, How should it be spread out between 2024 2025? I know you provided some insight on the budget for 2024 around €2,000,000,000 but there is a significant drop in consensus expectation into 2025. So it'd be helpful to get a sense of how much is flowing into 2025 for those projects? And also, When you look at this elevated CapEx budget for next year and your expectation for your several businesses, do you expect to free cash flow positive for 2024? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Tristan. So the biocarbon project hasn't increased in costs. It stayed the same. It's $260,000,000 We did expect at one point in time possibly get some tax credits that became unavailable once the definitions kind of became more precise from the administration. Otherwise, the capital cost of $2.60 remains what we thought it would be.

Speaker 3

And that project is still online to be completed and to start before the end of 2024, which as a reminder is incredibly, additive to our decarbonization path and is going to really help our customer base as we look at the carbon content across our steel operations with the benefit of using the biocarbon. So I'm quite excited and the team is doing a fantastic job in Mississippi getting that up and running. So that will be spent primarily in 2024 and that $2,000,000,000 is the number that I would have given you last quarter as well. So that stayed the same for total CapEx in 2024. As it relates to the aluminum project, most of the incremental and it rounded to $200,000,000 but it was less than that in actuality.

Speaker 3

But most of that will be spent in 2024. So I gave you the spend for of about $1,400,000,000 this year and it would be our expectation and then there would be a trailing call it $150,000,000 to $200,000,000 remaining to be spent in 2025 related to the aluminum projects. And so really nothing significant has changed on the capital front, except for that incremental addition in the aluminum project itself. Wait, wait. I'm sorry.

Speaker 3

I I had to look at my notes. You asked a lot of questions, Tristan. The last one was related to consensus for 2025 And I would just and free cash flow. I would just point out for everyone on the call. So for the last 2 years, Unfortunately, St.

Speaker 3

John has been negative from an EBITDA perspective. And Mark said on the call this morning that we will be EBITDA positive in the Q1 and thereafter. That's a significant swing in just earnings itself just as it relates to the ramp up of Sinton. In addition to that, you have the 4 value add flat roll lines are coming online in 2024, which are significant additional opportunity for contribution to earnings on the value added side as well as that's where the demand is today is in the painted products and the doll balloon products. And then if you couple that with The fact that we've been increasing and we will continue to increase volumes in our metals recycling segment, both related to the collection of non ferrous scrap, specifically aluminum, and to help service our steel mills on the ferrous side of the equation.

Speaker 3

And then finally, in 2025, We will be starting our aluminum mill mid year is the current forecast. So that's contributing to earnings, as Mark mentioned. I mean that's We believe through cycle earnings of $650,000,000 to $700,000,000 So I think everybody maybe needs to take a step back and kind of look at the opportunities that we have from an earnings perspective. And yes, we do expect to generate cash in 2024 and we expect to continue we plan to continue with our share repurchase program.

Speaker 2

Just one added point. Although we are disappointed with the CapEx Crete there at the Centum. We are very, very confident I mean, sorry, sorry, in Columbus aluminum. We're confident that that's the final creep, but it has no impact To schedule, to be honest, it is going at a breathtaking pace, absolutely phenomenal job by the team down there. And there's no doubt we'll be

Operator

Your next question for today is coming from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 7

Good morning, Mark and Theresa. My question is on the aluminum project. I don't know if you could maybe give a little bit of color as to what extent have you been able to you

Speaker 4

contract some

Speaker 7

of the volumes that will come online in mid-twenty 25? And what type of pricing mechanism or structure Even if it's just high level and on a qualitative basis, have you been able to use to implement in those contracts, if you have done so?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Carlos. The commercial team in all honesty has got only been put together over the last, I would say, 2 months. They're very, very active with our customer base. In all honesty, we all are at every level. The reception is incredibly high.

Speaker 2

And I would suggest that we have total confidence that we're going to be able to support the ramp up in 2025 into 2026.

Speaker 7

All right. Thanks for that. And if I may ask on the spec what is the expected ramp up and EBITDA contribution For the 4 quarter lines, I mean, I think 2 of them will start in the Q1.

Speaker 3

As far as the ramp up, I'll let Barry address how quickly they ramp up. I would tell you from a financial perspective, The coating lines, they are in totality all four around $600,000,000 and they tend to have a 2.5 to 3 year payback. So it's very nice return.

Speaker 4

Yes. And this is Barry. I'd just like to add the teams, the personnel are in place. They've been training, building the lines. That's our culture to be part of the construction.

Speaker 4

So the teams are already very familiar with their equipment. 2 of the lines have actually run first coils, 1 in Heartland, the paint line and a coating line down in Sinton. So that's great news. That's always exhilarating for the teams to get that point. The next two lines are in hot commissioning now and we anticipate those running first coils in the March timeframe.

Speaker 4

So the ramp up, keep product through them. We're pretty aggressive with what we do typically and we anticipate these will be Contributing to our customers here in the near future, I envision prime sales in Q1 from the two lines that have run first coils. And we see all four of the lines making and shipping saleable goods into the marketplace in Q2. So We anticipate our experience and our culture will allow these startups to be very seamless. And we're very responsible to our customers, make sure the product it's leaving is nothing less than the best they expect from us.

Speaker 7

Thank you very

Speaker 2

much. When you think about the four lines or particularly the two lines in Centum, Obviously, it's going to expand our value add sort of product portfolio down there and enhance margin directly there. But as importantly, it will allow us to fully utilize the downstream lines. So yes, the team has done a phenomenal job on the hot side. You're going to see great gains there through Increased utilization, as Barry said, we're knocking on 75% utilization today in January And 80% is right around the corner.

Speaker 2

But downstream, when You take that product, you pickle it, you put it through the time the mill and other lines. Having the additional, what is it, 300,000, 400,000 ton of downstream, That's going to allow a fully loading of those downstream lines and obviously a dilution of the cost structure. So it's a very, very important and effective impact to us here in the next 3 or 4 or 5 months.

Speaker 7

Appreciate the color, Mark. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question for today is coming from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning everyone. I wanted to ask about good morning. On the back side, I wanted to follow-up and just, I know you mentioned that you thought volume hit bottom and prices were stabilizing. Do we have kind of the effect of the higher price from the into the 4th quarter hitting in the Q1 or is that more of a second quarter phenomenon? So that's my first question.

Speaker 2

I didn't get that. Tristan, do you want?

Speaker 7

Yes.

Speaker 8

Sorry, on the fab side, just asking about cost from throughput from the hot rolled side.

Speaker 3

Okay. Yes. So David thought you were talking about fabrication. You're actually talking about flat roll. So We're operating right now about percent contract business lagging, let's call it, 2 to 3 months.

Speaker 3

So the increased pricing that we saw in flat roll in the 4th quarter is going to be benefiting the Q1 from a contract perspective. And the 80% is really been pretty consistent all year for the federal operations. So we'll see that benefit Q1.

Speaker 8

Okay. That's actually really helpful, but I was asking about fabrication and the throughput of flat rolled price increases on margins on downstream. So if you could actually answer that as well, that would be great. Thanks very much.

Speaker 3

Sorry, Simna. I'll get this right eventually. From a cost perspective for the substrate for fabrication, they tend to have anywhere between, call it, 8 to 10 weeks of inventory on the ground. That's the same thing that they would have had coming into the Q1. So you're going to see some of that incremental price hike in the Q1, but you would have seen some of it in the Q4 as well.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thanks. And then if I could just one last one. I know Barry talked about and Mark talked about customer inventories being low. So I just don't understand that because I know that at least SMU actually had some really high inventories for December.

Speaker 8

So is that just not aligned with what you're seeing? Or can you help me understand why the difference of Narrative there?

Speaker 4

Well, Timna, this is Barry. I think a lot of our relationships, especially with the galvanized and the painted are very directly with customers. So we see our supply chains still needing to fill orders at a really good rate. So the MSCI inventories still are traditionally pretty low. But more to the point, our specific OEM relationships are still pulling tons from us.

Speaker 4

And when we have conversations. The lead times haven't changed at all with vast majority of the business we do that is on these contract relationships. So I think what we're seeing out there in the nature of our inquiries make us feel like There is a real demand out there still underneath everything we're doing.

Speaker 2

Okay. That's helpful. Thanks very much. I think generally, we believe We just are very, very constructive for 2024 relative to steel demand and everyone gets a little by maybe a little backing off of the hot band pricing here of late. But for us, flat roll continues to be very, very solid.

Speaker 2

Maybe the macro indicators may not be overly constructive right now. The order input rate in January for us has been incredibly strong. And we would, as I said, suggest that supply chain inventories, not just MSCI or But just supply chain in general is relatively tight and imports are not a material factor today and won't be. We're booked out for coated and prepaint, right, Barry? It's very, very strong for us.

Speaker 2

And I think the Again, when you look at the just the hot band pricing, because coated prepaint is All very, very, very strong still. It's just like recent cycles and it's more motion than anything else, But you get that steep climb. You have exuberance, hence, to overshoot the market a little bit, and it just So, it retrenches itself a little bit. And I think that's where we are today. And it's not a signal as it used to be.

Speaker 2

It's not a signal As the underlying the structural underlying demand, there's so little spot material transacted today. Just because you have a slight erosion in hot band price doesn't mean to say This reflective of where the demand is. So for us, demand is, as I said, very, very solid throughout sheet mills. And I also see that long products is in a very, very Solid territory. We'd like to congratulate the team.

Speaker 2

They had record earnings and near record volumes in 2023. Done an incredible job. They've changed their commercial approach somewhat. They've expanded their product portfolio And that's going to support higher through cycle volumes going forward for the long products platform as well. So I think for us, the markets

Operator

Your next question is coming from Curt Woodworth with UBS.

Speaker 9

Yes, good morning. Hi, Mark, it's Theresa.

Speaker 7

Good morning.

Speaker 9

So just wanted to follow-up on The fab pricing dynamic, I think at the start or maybe at the end of the Q1 of 2023, you talked about pricing in the back half The year being down 10% to 15%, and you came in down 22%. And then I think for now 2 quarters in a row, you have talked about price stabilization and obviously you mentioned the order entry getting better. Would you be willing to provide any directional color on pricing? Like should we assume that the first half that the backlog you've priced the first half of this year is somewhat similar to where you were in the Q4, which will be consistent with kind of what you've said the past two quarters that pricing has stabilized?

Speaker 2

Well, I never do well in Vegas. So I expect that given projection is Dollar projection is perhaps right. But directionally, I do believe, again, that underlying structural demand is there. If you look at Literally, the last 18 to 24 months, you've seen these hot band pricing cycles, And they have not been driven by demand. They've been driven by emotion, whether it be the threat or the anticipation of high interest rates and inflation and recession and all these sorts of things, They've been emotional pivots as opposed to demand pivots.

Speaker 2

And all we can say is that we do believe strongly that the underlying demand is going to be sustained through the year and that should support pricing.

Speaker 9

Okay. And then, in terms of I think you noted the order entry in fab was The highest you've seen in the past 6 quarters, which is a pretty healthy statement. So I'm just curious like What's driving that? A lot of the data we've seen in terms of warehouse start somewhat negative. I know data centers is growing in other areas, but how do you characterize kind of the composition, your end market composition of fabrication demand versus maybe how that looked 18 months ago?

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Jerry may have additional commentary as well, but we're seeing a lot of incremental demand on the manufacturing side. We've been talking about on shoring that is actually happening, And that does have a good impact on the steel joist and deck market. We're also seeing a lot of activity in the education side as well as in the, I'll call it, pharma or healthcare. And then anecdotally, You have to separate warehouses from data centers. We're continuing to see really good strength in the data center arena as well.

Speaker 3

Barry, I don't know if there's anything I'm missing.

Speaker 4

No, I'd just say that the mix is it's a good mix for them on the engineering side of the business to keep up with their lead times. So It isn't substantially different than the typical business flow that comes through. It's small changes in the segments that we're serving through fabrication.

Speaker 9

Thank you very much. Very helpful.

Operator

Your next question for today is coming from Katja Jansick with BMO.

Speaker 3

Hi, thank you for taking my question. Just quickly on the aluminum segment, you started disclosing the operating loss. Can you provide some color how we should think about the cost there over the next few quarters or how it should impact you? Got you. We did break out.

Speaker 3

So aluminum, because of the investment size, we will have a separate segment going forward. We can't really give you projections on startup losses. We expect them during 2024 to not be of significant size and you will be able to see them. The one thing of note that you should recognize though, it's kind of an odd thing that's required from an accounting perspective, but those startup losses actually get reflected in our SG and A amount. So if you see SG and A fluctuating and maybe being higher than it is normally, it's because those start up losses during construction are actually included in that line.

Speaker 3

But is it a fair to assume that they should come up? I think in the Q4, they were around 11,000,000 Or is that a fair assumption over the next few quarters? We do have a big contingent of people on the ground now. But yes, during the year because we'll be expecting to actually still start up, as Mark said, in mid-twenty 25, you're going to be seeing headcount increase as well as additional construction activity. So yes, you should expect to see those costs rise during 2024.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Alex Hacking with Citi.

Speaker 10

Yes, thanks. Good morning. On Cintin, how much of Cintin's output is currently being sold into Mexico? If I remember correctly, you were targeting something like 30% before that mill started up. Thanks.

Speaker 4

Yes. We've had a very good ability to move product into Mexico. We have A very established team down there that's been servicing our flat roll group for a while, but we added a warehouse capability in Monterrey. And last year, we moved about 600,000 tons into Mexico and various industries altogether. But we're very pleased with how the business is moving.

Speaker 4

We are welcoming being welcomed by the customer base in Mexico. And in many cases, we've had relationships and haven't had the ability to get the tons there. Sittin provides us the opportunity, not just through proximity, but through the advanced product features So we have wider, we have heavier products than we would typically have. And these products have been very well received in the various industries. I would tell you that the continued near shoring of manufacturing to United States is very apparent with the investments we see in Mexico and the customer base there.

Speaker 4

So it continues to go along with our strategy as being a great place to do business And we're excited about it.

Speaker 10

Thanks, Barry. And then just a follow-up, if I may, on the Ali rolling mill. How comfortable are you with your ability to source 900,000 tons of scrap or however much you need? I'm not As familiar with the Ali scrap market, but it doesn't seem like there's particularly a lot of excess scrap. I guess like how much is just for context, how much does Omnisource handle today?

Speaker 10

How many tons? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Great question. Obviously, I think we're advantaged by having Omnisource recycle platform because today not only are they about the largest or second largest ferrous scrap per recycler that they are clearly the largest non ferrous recycler. And they're recycling somewhere around £500,000,000 of aluminum. We also have aluminum operation here in Fort Wayne that will make, I don't know, £260,000,000 or thereabouts of second aluminum. So it's not a new environment for us.

Speaker 2

I think we've got a great team. We've actually hired some Incredible talent that supplement our already incredible talent. And so sourcing the material is not a We don't believe it's a major issue. If you look at our strategy, there are 2 principal kind of Scrap streams you might say. 1 is for the automotive industrial base.

Speaker 2

The other is for can stock. And the UBC scrap is Well, it's highly available in California. They're a deposit state. So there's a lot of aluminum UBC scrap that generated up and down the West Coast, currently either moving to Asia or to the Midwest. And similarly, in Mexico, a sort of a UBC scrap arena.

Speaker 2

So that's why we're locating 2 facilities, 2 satellite facilities in those scrap rich areas, collect the scrap at the source, melded And then the freight of then moving big solid slab versus scrap to the Midwest is at around half the price. And so we're not only advantaging ourselves on the scraps collection side, but economically on getting that aluminum to the mill.

Speaker 10

Okay, thanks. Just one follow-up, if I may. This is probably a really dumb question, but I assume the facility could handle primary as well if required.

Speaker 2

We certainly will. And you don't because you've got 900,000 tons of Just to be clear of cash need, because the yield loss through the system, And when I say yield loss, it's not what we call proof loss that disappears. It's just sort of a circular within the mill, you still only need roughly 650,000 tons of total input, 20% of which is primary.

Speaker 10

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Your next question for today is coming from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.

Speaker 11

Yes. Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking our questions. Just on Cintiq, I think you mentioned hitting stride in the second quarter. How should we think about utilization for the full year?

Speaker 11

If I recall correctly, I think you had expected on 80% for the full year at the last quarterly earnings call. Is that still the target or Should we assume a bit lower?

Speaker 2

It's my target, Barry.

Speaker 4

No. We continue to strive for 80%. We The team is doing, as Mark said, a phenomenal job. It's a big challenge to bring such a big asset up all at once. The transformer problems have been unfortunate, but we have several fixes in the works.

Speaker 4

Approaching the problem for both Resiliency is also is getting back to full power capacity. So we remain Confident that the operational levels we're going to see 80% is the target the whole team is aware of. We're all incentivized to make that happen.

Speaker 2

And not to complicate the math, but if you think about it in January, we're approaching 75% utilization right now, that's 75% of ultimate, even though the team is handcuffed because of the lower power input. So we're quite confident to get to that 80% for the year.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thanks for that. We'll plug in 84%. No, just joking. Just on the I guess things like onshore and the infrastructure bill.

Speaker 11

You said this is an expectation to benefit in 2024. I guess, have you seen orders? When do you expect to see orders? Should we think of this more as a second half 'twenty four to really Kind of benefit you. And then between, I guess, on shoring and infrastructure specifically, which you've seen being more impactful for you this year?

Speaker 2

Just from a So the product mix, so to speak, the infrastructure growth on the solar, it's already there. Solar has exploded, renewables exploded last year, continues to grow dramatically. We were advantaged hugely both in structural for the torque tubes and also for flat roll for support tubing. We're starting to see and I don't think we can be specific on how that ramps up, but directionally, We're starting to see orders from bridge makers currently. And so that's the start, at least from my perspective, the start of a ramp up in spend.

Speaker 4

We also see in the log products A lot of, let's call it, foundational type Structural sales, and even though it's a smaller division, Steel West Virginia is very, very full with us right now with stuff that is tangential, whether it's solar fields, the support steel that goes in the ground, or fork trucks and things like that They go into these new factories and these new warehouses and data centers. So we do see a good bounce from that. We also see The pipeline industry in the States is picking up orders, some cases for carbon sequestration lines as well as some major pipelines. So Those markets are awake and we see a lot of inquiry activity that is Very exciting for us, ultimately.

Speaker 3

And just I want to encourage that there are some of you on the phone right now that may not understand that the infrastructure program and the IRA and anything related to the roads and bridges and construction, They don't only benefit, long products, they benefit long products. They certainly benefit our steel and joist and deck operations. But additionally, the flat roll operations have exposure to that as well, whether it's through HVAC systems or pipe and tube, like Barry just mentioned. There's a lot of impact in the flat roll side and I would encourage you to think about that perspective as well.

Operator

Your next question for today is coming from John Tumaz, a Private Investor.

Speaker 12

Thank you very much. Could you give us a little Feedback on the potential 2025 CapEx and with Sinton and the 4 coating lines in the aluminum and the carbon behind us. What are some of the leading candidates for the next capital investments Going forward, and in particular, could you talk about growth in recycling where aluminum, copper, zinc have much lower global recycling rates than steel in particular.

Speaker 3

John, it's good to hear from you. Yes, we do have projects in mind for 2025. I'm not that we're prepared to go into that today. I would say from the perspective of capital spending, as I mentioned earlier on the call, Aluminum will probably have a tail of somewhere between, call it, $200,000,000 $250,000,000 Our teams are consistently bringing us wonderful ideas that have high returns associated with them. Again, I'll point back to our ROIC.

Speaker 3

They do a good job of giving us those projects that have really great returns. So the number for 2025, I would say, would be a minimum of probably $500,000,000 something like that, because you do still have some sustaining capital as well, which for us is very low at around $160,000,000 but There's still some benefit there. Mark, I don't know if you want to add any addition to that.

Speaker 2

Yes. No, I'll kick it to you just to get the CapEx part, not the whole thing. But John, as and Theresa just mentioned, we have an absolutely incredible team that continues to be innovative. And if you were to, I don't know, just be with us We'll be with that team. It's incredible.

Speaker 2

We have a new digital printing technology that we're exploiting. Again, not big dollars, but it's going to be an incredibly high margin niche business. We have 2 Suffice it to say, 2 product segments that we're not in today in flat roll that we're exploring and they have A couple of innovative things there. So the pipeline in steel is still there for sure. I think also And we've got to walk before we run.

Speaker 2

But in aluminum, I see that growth kind of paralleling the growth in steel. We get on the front end, make the basic substrate, so to speak. And then from a processing standpoint, for instance, There's a massive, massive amount of aluminum that gets prepainted today. That's an expertise of ours. You can see growth and expansion there.

Speaker 2

So I think you witnessed it, John, almost personally over the years and shared our history, But we've clearly demonstrated the ability to be innovative and grow. I would emphasize grow in a very disciplined intentional manner. That's the only way you can get the return on invested capital numbers that we achieve, both organically, but also through acquisition, There will continue to be opportunity there, but you will see us remain very, very disciplined, very, very intentional. We're not going to overpay for anything. And we're going to retain the best financial metrics in our industry.

Speaker 12

As we build our financial models, if in 2025, the CapEx to somewhere, let's just say for discussion in the range of $500,000,000 to $1,000,000,000 Should we The increasing the share buyback dollars from the levels of the last several years given drop in CapEx?

Speaker 3

So John, we want to be super clear that we see the share buyback program is a very good tool for us to be able to use and you've seen that. So very much the dividend we've been increasing and we increase it with increases in our structural through cycle cash flow generation when projects come online and then we do it pretty aggressively. We want to keep that positive momentum. But then we use that share buyback program during periods of excess cash flow when we maybe have less growth in mind, but we still are very much a growth company, to Mark's point, whether that's through greenfield assets or whether that's acquisitions. But at the same time, we have the luxury that we don't have to sacrifice the share repurchase program.

Speaker 3

We absolutely can execute on all of those things. And that's what you'll continue to see us do in 2024 and 2025, absent extraneous things.

Speaker 12

Thank you very much. I'm a happy shareholder.

Speaker 2

Excellent.

Operator

Your next question is a follow-up question coming from Martin Englert.

Speaker 5

I appreciate the time for the follow-up. Just Two quick ones here. Over the last 4 years, the seasonal sequential 1Q gain in external steel volumes averaged about 7 quarter on quarter based on what you're seeing with order intake in the New Year here and then also Taking into account the continued ramp in Sinton and value added lines, should we expect something At the core, similar on a sequential basis around 7% and then layer in the additional volumes from ramping assets.

Speaker 3

Martin, we can't give directionality. Obviously, We had outages in the Q4 at 2 of our steel mills. We won't have those in the Q1. We've just mentioned that Sinton is going to be ramping up aggressively in the Q1. So all in all, absent any significant market moves, you should expect to see incremental volume from our steel operations.

Speaker 3

And As Barry pointed out, with the additional value added lines, you're going to start to see that product mix get richer and richer. So it will go more into the processing lines. You'll Eventually see some really great spread enhancement throughout the year as well.

Speaker 5

What were the outages in 4Q? And did I Assume that you mentioned it because it did have an adverse impact on volumes?

Speaker 3

Martin, they're not they weren't They were just normal outages. We take outages at our flat roll mills and at our long product mills. They weren't anything that were we didn't note them as far as from a volume perspective. But yes, obviously, when you have outages, it does impact volume, but there was nothing of significance to note.

Speaker 5

Thank you. One last one, if I could, on the aluminum project. Based on the 2 cycle estimate, implied EBITDA of around $900 to $1,000 per ton. When you were coming up with that analysis, Are you able to share what you think the bottom and top quartiles of profitability might look like when we think about peak to trough?

Speaker 3

No, Martin. We're not. We do mid cycle, through cycle. And as we get more familiar, we don't provide that

Operator

That concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Millett for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Well, thank you, everyone, and thank you, thank you, Holly, and thank you, everyone, on the call. I guess, as John noted, he's a happy Shareholder, to be honest, everyone at SDI are happy shareholders because we all are equity holders. And as part of the compensation for each and every one of us, collectively, we do own a reasonable amount of stop. And I would just emphasize that we treat your dollars just like they are And we're absolutely focused on continuing to outstrip our competition relative to shareholder value creation through the cycle. But we can't do it on our own.

Speaker 2

So any customers listening out there, thank you for your support. We have loyal support and it takes us through the cycles. Suppliers can't do it without you. And got to stress, we have the best metals team in the world. Our people are absolutely phenomenal.

Speaker 2

Thank you for what you do each and every day. And for those that are owners on the call as well, Thank you for your support. Have a great day. Bye bye.

Operator

Once again, ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation, and have a great and safe day.

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Key Takeaways

  • Record safety and steel volumes: SDI achieved its lowest ever incident rate while shipping a record 12.8 million tons of steel, delivering $18.8 billion in revenues, $3.5 billion of operating cash flow and $3.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2023.
  • Centum and Sinton ramp-up: Centum Steel went EBITDA positive in December and is on track for full profitability in Q1 2024, while the Sinton mill continues ascending toward an 80% utilization target to drive down conversion costs.
  • Aluminum flat-rolled expansion: A fully cash-funded, $2.7 billion project in Columbus, Mississippi—including a 650 ktpa rolling mill and two recycled slab centers—remains on schedule for mid-2025 start-up and is expected to generate $650–700 million of through-cycle EBITDA.
  • Circular metals and fabrication strength: SDI leverages North America’s largest non-ferrous recycling network alongside a solid joist and deck backlog, benefiting from on-shoring and IRA-driven infrastructure spending to support margins and utilization.
  • Disciplined capital allocation: With $3.5 billion of year-end liquidity and free cash flow, SDI plans roughly $2 billion of 2024 CapEx—60% for aluminum—and returned 62% of 2023 net income to shareholders through dividends and $1.5 billion of share repurchases.
A.I. generated. May contain errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Steel Dynamics Q4 2023
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