DOW Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
January 25, 2024

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Dow Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn it over to Dow Investor Relations' Vice President, Pankaj Gupta. Mr.

Operator

Gupta, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Good morning. Thank you for joining today. The accompanying slides are provided through this webcast and posted on our website. I am Pankaj Gupta, Dow Investor Relations' Vice President And joining me are Jim Fehrning, VAU's Chair and Chief Executive Officer and Jeff Tate, Chief Financial Officer. Please note our comments contain forward looking statements and are subject to the related cautionary statements contained in the earnings news release and slides.

Speaker 1

Please refer to our public filings for further information about principal risks and uncertainties. Unless otherwise specified, all financials, where applicable, excludes significant items. We also will refer to non GAAP measures. A reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in the earnings news release and slides that are posted on our website. On Slide 2 is our agenda for today's call.

Speaker 1

Jim will review our 4th quarter results, full year highlights and operating segment performance. Jeff will provide an update on the macroeconomic environment, our strong financial position through the cycle as well as the modeling guidance. To close, Jim will provide an update on key milestones for our long term growth and sustainability roadmap, which will continue to drive shareholder value. Following that, we will take your questions. Now let me turn the call over to Jim.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Pankaj. Beginning on Slide 3, in the Q4, we continue to execute with discipline and advance our long term strategy in the face of a dynamic macroeconomic environment. Net sales were $10,600,000,000 down 10% versus the year ago period reflecting declines in all operating segments. Sales were down 1% sequentially as volume gains in Packaging and Specialty Plastics were more than offset by seasonal demand declines in Performance Materials and Coatings. Volume increased 2% year over year with gains across all regions except Asia Pacific, which was flat.

Speaker 2

Sequentially volume decreased by 1%, including the impact of an unplanned event from a storm that was equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane At our Bahia Blanca site in Argentina, local price decreased 13% year over year with declines in all operating segments due to lower feedstocks and energy costs. Sequentially price was flat reflecting modest gains in most regions. Operating EBIT for the quarter was $559,000,000 down $42,000,000 year over year primarily driven by lower prices. Sequentially, operating EBIT was down $67,000,000 as gains in Packaging and Specialty Plastics were more than offset by seasonally lower volumes in Performance Materials and Coatings. Our cash flow generation and working capital management enabled us to deliver cash flow from operations of $1,600,000,000 in the quarter.

Speaker 2

We continue to reduce costs and focus on cash generation, Completing our $1,000,000,000 of cost savings for the year and in the Q4, we pursued additional de risking opportunities for our pension plans, including annuitization and risk transfer of $1,700,000,000 in pension liability and a one time non cash and non operating settlement charge of $642,000,000 We also advanced our long term strategy while returning $616,000,000 to shareholders. And we reached final investment decision with our Board of Directors for our path to 0 project in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta. Now turning to our full year performance on Slide 4. Our 2023 results demonstrate strong execution and a commitment to financial discipline. Against the dynamic macroeconomic backdrop, TeamDAU continued to take proactive actions.

Speaker 2

As a result, we generated $5,200,000,000 in cash flow from operations for the year, reflecting a cash flow conversion of 96%. We also returned $2,600,000,000 to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Our efforts continue to be recognized externally through industry leading awards, certifications and recognitions and we continue to outpace our peers on leadership diversity. I'm proud of how TeamDAO is delivering for our customers, driving shareholder value and supporting our communities as we progress our long term strategy. Now turning to operating segment performance on Slide 5.

Speaker 2

In the Packaging and Specialty Plastics segment, Operating EBIT was $664,000,000 up $9,000,000 compared to the year ago period. Results were driven by lower input costs and higher operating rates where we closed out the year strong and hit record ethylene production levels on a full year basis. Local price declines were driven by lower global prices, while volume increases were led by higher packaging demand, primarily in the U. S, Canada and Latin America. Sequentially, operating EBIT increased by $188,000,000 This was driven by higher integrated polyethylene margins, the impact of planned maintenance activity in the Q3 and higher licensing revenue.

Speaker 2

Moving to the Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment, operating EBIT was $15,000,000 compared to $164,000,000 in the year ago period. Results were driven by lower local prices in both businesses as well as reduced supply availability in Industrial Solutions. Sequentially, operating EBIT was down $6,000,000 driven by seasonally lower volumes in building and construction end markets, which were partially offset by seasonally higher demand for deicing fluid and higher demand for mobility applications. And in the Performance Materials and Coatings segment, operating EBIT was a loss of $61,000,000 compared to a loss of $130,000,000 in the year ago period, driven by lower costs and reduced planned maintenance turnaround activity. Volume was up year over year driven by higher demand in project driven building and construction end markets.

Speaker 2

Sequentially, operating EBIT decreased $240,000,000 primarily due to seasonally lower volumes. Next, I'll turn it over to Jeff to review our outlook and actions on Slide 6.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jim. Before I begin, I'd like to mention how excited I am to have rejoined Dow last November. I've been connecting with key stakeholders, analysts and shareholders, including many of you on this call today. And I look forward to meeting with so many others in the future. After 4 years serving in a CFO role outside of Dow, I'm pleased to see that Dow's culture of execution, commitment to advancing our ambition and the focus everyone has demonstrated on delivering on our financial priorities since then remains.

Speaker 1

This is an exciting time for the company. As CFO, I'm proud to carry forward Dow's commitment to maintaining a disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation over the economic cycle as we advance our growth strategies and deliver long term value for shareholders. Now for our outlook on Slide 6. As we enter 2024, we expect near term demand remain pressured by elevated inflation, high interest rates and geopolitical tension, particularly in building and construction and durable goods end markets. That said, we are seeing some initial positive indicators.

Speaker 1

While inflation is still elevated compared to pre COVID levels, Its growth rate is moderating, supporting more stable economic conditions. In addition, the destocking that began in late 2022 has largely run its course, resulting in low inventory levels throughout most of our value chains. In the U. S, Industrial activity continues to be moderate. In December, industrial production increased 1% year over year and chemical railcar loadings are up 9.6% in January versus the prior year.

Speaker 1

U. S. Consumer spending has remained resilient with retail trade sales up 4.8% in December. We're also encouraged by recent forecast from the American Coatings Association, which expects market demand to grow approximately 3% in 2024 following 3 consecutive years of declines. In Europe, while inflation has moderated, consumer demand remains weak with retail trade sales down 1.1% year over year in November.

Speaker 1

In December, manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory and new car registrations fell 3.3% year over year after 16 consecutive months of growth. We continue to monitor China where we see improving conditions, which could provide a source of demand recovery following the Lunar New Year. Industrial production was up 6.8% year over year last month, exceeding market estimates of 6.6%. December auto sales also continue to be strong in China, supported by year end incentives. In other regions around the world, industrial activity remains constructive.

Speaker 1

While Indian manufacturing PMI remains expansionary, ASEAN Manufacturing PMI entered contractionary territory last month. In Mexico, November marked the 25th consecutive month of industrial growth. On Slide 7, our competitive advantages, early cycle growth investments and operational discipline position us well to capitalize on a recovery and deliver growth when economic conditions improve. Our differentiated portfolio with Structurally advantaged assets, global scale and strong cost positions enable us to competitively support global demand growth over the cycle. Healthy oil to gas spreads supported by growing natural gas and NGL production in U.

Speaker 1

S. Favor our cost advantage and ability to capture margin momentum. We've also taken actions to position the company for profitable growth, including ongoing execution of near term investments that are expected to deliver approximately $2,000,000,000 in incremental underlying EBITDA by mid decade. In addition, we've improved our cost profile, delivering $1,000,000,000 in targeted savings in 2023 That included lower plant maintenance spending and structural improvements to raw materials, logistics and utility costs. In addition, more than 90% of the 2,000 impacted roles exited by year end.

Speaker 1

Our strong balance sheet allows us to navigate the bottom of the cycle and have the strength to capitalize on the next upside in the global economy. Turning to our outlook for the Q1 on Slide 8. In the Packaging and Specialty Plastics segment, Lower feedstock and energy costs will be more than offset by lower earnings from non recurring licensing activity from the prior quarter, resulting in a $25,000,000 headwind. Additionally, we expect a $50,000,000 headwind due to higher plant maintenance activity at select energy assets in the U. S.

Speaker 1

Gulf Coast. In the Industrial, Intermediates and Infrastructure segment, We expect margin expansion on higher MDI and MEG spreads as well as lower European energy costs, resulting in a $50,000,000 tailwind. Increased season demand for de icing fluid is expected to provide a $25,000,000 tailwind despite being partly offset by continued weakness in consumer durables demand. We also expect a headwind of $50,000,000 due to planned maintenance activity in the quarter primarily related to a PDH turnaround and catalyst change. In the Performance Materials and Coatings segment, downward pressure is expected to continue due to excess supply from competitive supply additions that will keep margins at depressed levels.

Speaker 1

However, we expect higher seasonal demand in building and construction end markets to contribute $150,000,000 tailwind for the segment. We also expect higher plant maintenance turnaround at our Deer Park Acrylic Monomer site and PDH to result in a $50,000,000 headwind in the quarter. With all the puts and takes, we expect 1st quarter earnings to be approximately $25,000,000 to $50,000,000 above 4th quarter performance. Next, I'll turn it back to Jim.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jeff. Moving to Slide 9, our decarbonize and grow and transform the waste strategies uniquely position us to capitalize on demand for more sustainable and circular solutions across our attractive market verticals. Altogether, by 2,030, these investments enable us to deliver an increase of more than $3,000,000,000 to our underlying earnings through the cycle, while reducing scope 1 and 2 emissions by 5,000,000 metric tons and commercializing 3,000,000 metric tons of circular and renewable solutions annually. In November, We reached the key milestone is our path to 0 project in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta achieved final investment decision by our Board of Directors. We also continue to advance our transform the waste strategy via intentional actions, strategic partnerships and offtake agreements.

Speaker 2

In the Q4, Valorigen's 15,000 ton per year mechanical recycling line in France achieved mechanical completion And Miura Technologies in the UK commenced commissioning, which is expected to contribute 20,000 tons per year of advanced recycling capacity. Both Valorigen and Miura expect to reach commercialization in the first half of this year. As the next step of our sustainability strategy, Dow has established a green finance framework, which was published on our investor website today. This allows us to further align our funding with our goals and targets, while also providing an opportunity for the investor community to take part in the execution of our sustainability strategy. Altogether, we remain confident in our long term earnings growth with continued focus on a more sustainable future while maintaining a disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation.

Speaker 2

Now turning to Slide 10, Polyethylene demand is expected to continue to grow at approximately 1.2 to 1.4 times GDP through 2,050. A growing population, regulations and consumer preferences support this and our customers have expressed an increasing need for low and 0 carbon emissions and circular products. As global demand grows, no new cost advantaged Ethylene capacity is expected to come online in North America until the late 2026 to 2027 timeframe, which is expected to tighten the supply demand balance in the near term. We are well positioned to capture new and growing demand with our existing assets and partnership agreements. In addition, we are investing in low carbon emissions infrastructure to capture growing demand for polyethylene as you will see on Slide 11.

Speaker 2

Our Fort Saskatchewan project will build upon the strong foundation of our Texas 9 cracker where we have proven our best in class execution, capital efficiency, reliability and emissions reduction. Canada's feedstock cost advantage provides Dow with lower cash costs compared to the rest of the world, even more advantaged than the U. S. Gulf Coast. We also anticipate potential upside from the commercialization of low and 0 emissions products.

Speaker 2

Total CapEx spend is expected to be $6,500,000,000 on this key growth project, excluding any incentives, With Dow's total enterprise CapEx to ramp in 2024 to approximately $3,000,000,000 and exceed depreciation and amortization levels annually through 2027. We remain committed to keeping our CapEx within B and A across the economic cycle and expect to return to those levels as we complete this project. We expect to receive governmental support totaling more than $1,500,000,000 in cash and tax incentives that will bring the net capital outlay for this project to $5,000,000,000 The majority of these incentives are expected to be received by Dow through 2,030, which is closely aligned with our CapEx deployment for the project. We will begin construction in the first half of twenty twenty four with Phase 1 startup of approximately 1,300,000 tons per year of capacity expected in 2027. In Phase 2, we will add another 600,000 tons of capacity, which is expected to start up in 2029.

Speaker 2

Phase 2 also includes the retrofit of our existing cracker reducing net 1,000,000 metric tons per year of CO2 Scope 1 and 2 emissions. Closing on Slide 12, the actions we've taken since spend have strengthened our balance sheet, increased cash flow and enhance the financial flexibility and resilience of our business. In 2023, we built on that foundation Moving swiftly to deliver $1,000,000,000 in cost savings and focus on cash generation as economic conditions remain challenging. As a result, we delivered on all of our capital allocation priorities, including a fully funded dividend, $625,000,000 of share repurchases and growth investments, all while maintaining the strongest balance sheet we've ever had at this part of the cycle. With all of our debt at fixed rate, we have no substantive debt maturities due until 2027 and $13,000,000,000 of available liquidity.

Speaker 2

Additionally, we have returned approximately 90% of our net income to shareholders and spend well above our 65% target across the economic cycle. With global reach, presence in attractive end markets and advantaged cost position and early stage growth investments in flight, we are well positioned to capture attractive growth opportunities as economic conditions recover. With that, I'll turn it back to Pankaj to open the Q and A.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jim. Now let's move on to your questions. I would like to remind you that our forward looking statements apply to both our prepared remarks as well as the formal Q and A. Operator, please provide the Q and A instructions.

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Hassan Ahmed from Alembic Global. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Jim. Jim, a couple of times through the prepared remarks, you talked about inventory. It just seems that there are 2 camps out there in terms of the thought process with regards What a potential restocking may look like and I'd love to hear your views about that. On one side of the debate, People are sitting there and saying, hey, look, since the second half of twenty twenty two, the destocking was quite significant. And maybe as and when we should expect an equally impressive restock.

Speaker 3

But then on the other side of the camp, you have some of the folks sort of debating that Buying cartons across the supply chains change quite dramatically coming out of the pandemic and maybe a restock could not look that impressive. So I'd love to hear your views and you could also sort of elaborate on that within some of the main product chains be it polyethylene, polyurethanes and the like?

Speaker 2

Good morning, Insohn. I think that's a great question. I think one of the reasons that December Q4 ended up stronger than expected especially I'll use packaging and specialty plastics as an example was because you had a pretty mixed year in 2023. And In December, you can sometimes see the behavior that the last half of December things slow down and people manage cash and they don't buy. That was not what we experienced in December.

Speaker 2

We actually experienced strong demand right through the month. I don't think that's an indication of restocking, supply chains moving. So I would say through the value chains today and almost all the businesses, It looks like there's not an excess of inventory out there. And as demand is coming, people are having to buy to keep the chains full. Secondly, inventories are low in areas like P and SP, Industrial Solutions because The arbitrage is open and our own footprint, 85% of our own global footprint is in light cracking jurisdictions where we crack ethane and propane, which have been highly advantaged.

Speaker 2

And so that's what allowed us to set an ethylene record for the year. I would say we're not I don't think we're in a restocking cycle yet. I think people are Coming together around a soft landing here, I mean, we're seeing positive signs on housing permits. That doesn't turn into housing demand until we start to see, say, maybe interest rates come down. If interest rates come down in the second quarter, maybe you start to see some Pickup in housing construction and that starts to show up more toward the back half of the year.

Speaker 2

You've got to remember that energy costs are low. And so if people are thinking that energy costs are low and I'm still able to buy at reasonable prices going forward, there may not be a reason for them to do a big restock right now. But this will turn and as energy costs start to move up and the whole complex starts to move up with demand. I think at that point, I think we would be wise to keep our eye on what's happening with the potential for restock. It might just be a little soon right now.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Sison from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hey guys, nice end of the year. I'm just curious, you had good volume growth in PSP in the 4th quarter. Do you Expect that to continue into the first and maybe any of your thoughts on how your operating rates for polyethylene was sort of improved sequentially and the cadence for the year?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Michael. Good question. Operating rates in the advantaged regions, especially Canada, U. S, Gulf Coast, Argentina, We're strong through the end of the year.

Speaker 2

I mentioned ethylene production record. We saw rates above 90% in those regions for the Q4. And obviously, we saw a little bit of an improvement In Europe, I would say the Suez Canal situation means not as much material from the Middle East is flowing into Europe. And so that's given Europe a little bit of a lift On operating rates, as we go into the Q1 and of course with propane being where it is, we're cracking LPGs in Ternews and then Tarragona, that's helping out a bit there. I would say, I think PNSP is going to continue to see Good volume growth, that's what our outlook is going forward.

Speaker 2

The Industrial Solutions is holding up relatively well. We have our own Self inflicted issue with the Plaquemines Glycol plant, but I'm expecting that back up in the second quarter. And we're watching carefully on construction chemicals demand and durable goods to see if we see an uptick there. We saw some good movement in consumer electronics. And so that's got me a little bit optimistic.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Hi, thanks. Maybe two quick ones for me. Just on Slide 7, you

Speaker 1

have project starts that are going from 2024 to 26, talk about how material some of that might be for 2024? And then also if you could just give us an update on what you did with the pension ending the year?

Speaker 2

Yes. On project starts, we've got Things that we've got coming up, obviously, is we've got some of our constellation capacity that came up In 2022 and 2023, it's running really well. We started at the MDI distillation facility In Freeport in the Q3, I think that will start to show some positive benefits as we move forward. That's about a 30% And also reduction of a footprint getting inside of the La Porte site. We've got cdrift alkoxylation, 2nd wave expansion in Q4 of this year and then Ternuz in Q4 of 2025.

Speaker 2

Both of that supports growing demand and energy and also consumer solutions and pharma business, so that's good. Amin's business for carbon capture is growing well, and so that's good. If you look at plastics industry, there's really no new capacity coming out in plastics, say one train at the Shell plant in the United States. Otherwise, all the plastics capacity is in the market. Inventories are low.

Speaker 2

Export channel is running strong. And we saw volume growth year over year in the Q4. So I feel good about the overall outlook for plastics as we're going into 2024. When you get into polyolefins, our polyurethanes and propylene oxide, Little bit different story, that capacity come on in China. We've seen the same in siloxanes last year.

Speaker 2

I think we're working through that. The silicones growth is going to eat up that siloxanes capacity. But we've got to see the durable goods market and the housing market come back to tighten up PO. Propylene Glycol side has been strong, but as you know, housing and automotive drives PPE a lot. Those two things drive the propylene markets and we're going to keep a close eye on them.

Speaker 2

Jeff, do you want to cover pension and what we did?

Speaker 1

Sure, Jim. As we've been Communicating to the Street here in recent quarters, one of the things that we're consistently looking to do is we're solidifying our financial position Let's look for ways to de risk our pension plans. And one of those could be around annuitization as well as risk transfer of our liabilities. So specifically in Q4, We were actually able to reduce our pension liabilities by $1,700,000,000 The execution of those transactions did not require any additional cash From the company, as Jim mentioned in some of his opening remarks, the impact of that was a onetime non cash non operating settlement charge of $640,000,000 in the quarter.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Sakauskas from JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Thanks very much. Recently, there was a cold snap in Texas. And I didn't notice that there was any penalty in EBITDA for the Q1. Are you still assessing what the amounts might be or do you think that it's 0? And then secondly, you pulled out $1,000,000,000 in costs.

Speaker 5

Can you allocate the $1,000,000,000 across your 3 segments?

Speaker 2

Sure. I'll take the cold snap and then Jeff, I'll have you take a look at the costs. Look on the freeze, Jeff, I just want to go back 2 years ago, this is the 3rd consecutive year of freeze on the Gulf Coast and We've improved plans every year to be able to be ready for that. This year will be the lowest impact that we've had of any in the 3 years. And so the big impacts that hit us were at Deer Park and at Seadrift, But almost all of that is back up and running now.

Speaker 2

So we were able to rebound pretty quickly. You never go Completely unscathed, but I think we managed through it pretty well. We haven't had to disrupt any customers because of downtime. And I think we're going to recover pretty strong here and be running hard by the end of this month. So I feel that we've navigated it pretty well.

Speaker 2

And We didn't see enough of an impact that we put that into Q1 estimates. I think our biggest delta in Q1 is we've got Quite a few turnarounds in the Q1. And so that's our biggest impact, about $200,000,000 of turnarounds in the quarter, $150,000,000 And then we expect some margin and some seasonality in Q1, say, plus $200,000,000 on Margins and minus $150,000,000 on turnarounds in the quarter. So that's the biggest net net on the Q1 'twenty four guidance. Jeff, do you want to hit how the $1,000,000,000 costs fell across the business?

Speaker 1

Absolutely, Jim. In the simplest terms, about 50% of those cost savings are in PNFP, 20% to 25% are in the other two segments respectively. We also have a little bit in corporate as well. So pretty well distributed based on our operations and our revenues as well.

Speaker 2

We ended the year at a $1,400,000,000 run rate on that. So if you look at full year 2024, Jeff, We still got another $400,000,000 coming in, in terms of the cost savings for 2024, But we have $200,000,000 of higher turnarounds in 'twenty four. So net net, dollars 200,000,000 coming into 'twenty four. I hope that covers what you're looking for.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America. Your line is open.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thank you.

Speaker 2

I would I'd like to get

Speaker 6

some help from you on why were the earnings in PM and then C So much lower than what you were expecting, say, in the Q3 slide deck. Would you attribute this to Just lower pricing, higher raws, help me on this one. And maybe in particular coatings, You've got a key customer raising price and targeting mid single digit lower raws. Your propylene costs are higher. Why not able to push more price in this segment Or cut back on operating rates or something along those lines.

Speaker 6

What's your outlook for that segment?

Speaker 2

Yes. Good question, Steve. I'd say starting at the top, siloxanes and monomers In the silicones, siloxanes and silicones and monomers and coatings and monomers are both oversupplied. And so that put pressure on both volume and pricing in the quarter. And you had volumes decrease sequentially across all regions and all markets.

Speaker 2

And that's not unusual, Especially in coatings and monomers, that's pretty typical of Q4 that we would see that. But silicones was a little bit softer. And I think that was the biggest delta there. Year over year, they were down on price, which was because of that supply demand for both siloxane and acrylic monomers. The downstream in terms of the Coating, the binders business in coating held up relatively well and actually had decent volumes in the Q4.

Speaker 2

So what we supply to the downstream coatings customers look good. And as we mentioned, our view going forward is about a 3% increase this year in downstream coatings. And I'd say downstream silicones demand continues to hold up Pretty well. I'd say the one thing we're keeping an eye on is what happens with EV volume production, EV drives A lot of silicones content, a lot into batteries, and so we need to keep an eye on that. But the other segments in silicones are also on pretty substantial growth for 2024.

Speaker 2

It's those upstream monomers markets that we're going to keep an eye on. And I think things will start to tighten up a bit in China and that will help on phenoxanes.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Spector from UBS.

Speaker 2

I was wondering if you

Speaker 7

could comment on your polyethylene price assumptions in the Q1. Think within your bridge, you talk about lower costs and some other moving pieces, but there's not really anything there on price. So are you assuming that you get positive pricing in February March like some of the consultant data shows or are you assuming something different? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Josh. We've got $0.05 price increases on the table for January February. I would say, globally, we're looking pretty flat quarter over quarter on pricing. I'm expecting to see some price up in EMEA. I mentioned the Suez Canal and the impact that had on Middle East volumes going up into EMEA.

Speaker 2

So I think we're going to see that up. I think we're going to see price up in Asia Pacific. Think we're going to see a relatively flat in the Americas. Integrated margins for the Americas ought to be about where they were in the 4th quarter. Integrated margins in Europe should be up a few cents.

Speaker 2

That's what the market markers would look at right now. And input costs are in line. I mean, even though we have that cold snap, natural gas costs Our very competitive ethane costs are very competitive. Propane, they're a little bit high because of the heating demand. But I think that may start to come off a little bit as we move through this cold spell.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Good morning. Jim, you highlight the U. S. Chemical railcar loadings up 10%.

Speaker 2

What do you think is driving that? And given the strong start to the quarter, do you expect volumes to be up in all three segments in Q1? Thank you. Yes. Look, I think on chemical railcar loadings, industrial production And the U.

Speaker 2

S. Is starting to come back. The U. S. Has a tremendous cost advantage.

Speaker 2

Operating rates in most of the sectors are up. And I think the destocking being it's always hard to have enough visibility call the end of it, but I think what we saw in December were signs that destocking has worked through. So Any downstream demand is turning into orders, and I think that's what you're seeing with the railcar loadings. So remember, railcars service the Mexican market as well. Mexico has been Very strong.

Speaker 2

They've benefited a lot from near shoring. And so having both China volumes up In Mexico, volumes up, I think is a positive here. I would say on volumes, my expectations, So we have volume growth for all three segments for 2024. I think that's going to start to materialize. I think plastics is underway right now.

Speaker 2

I think construction chemicals, housing related demand on polyurethanes will probably be Geared more towards the back half of the year, I think downstream silicones, industrial solutions will be throughout the year. And then we'll have a step up in industrial solutions when we get the Glycol 2 plant back in Plaquemines. And I think I can speak for the business here. As soon as we get that plant back up, we'll have it sold out. So we're working really hard to get that thing back offline.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander from Jefferies.

Speaker 2

This is Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. Thank you for taking my call. Can we just discuss your strategy on mechanical recycling? Do you expect by 2,030 and longer term do you expect that to outgrow the market? Yes.

Speaker 2

I think when we look at if you look at what we put in the deck on polyethylene demand, Our view is that both mechanical recycling and advanced recycling are going to continue to grow. There's going to be demand Drivers to grow all of those segments. We're in the middle of discussions on a global plastics treaty Right now, we've got a big conference in Ottawa at the end of April, beginning of May. There's another one in Korea toward the end of the year. And I think what's coalescing around the industry and also the consumer brand owners And some of the NGOs that we work with is a focus on enhanced producer responsibility as part of it to drive circularity, Focus on recycled content mandates, a focus on all forms of recycling and bio based products that are made from waste or alternative feedstocks.

Speaker 2

And in some cases, like we have a project that's making bio based materials from waste from corn production, corn stover that's used to convert into bio feedstocks. You're going to see demand For all forms of that in place, we've got some capacity coming up in Europe and we started there because the enhanced producer responsibility schemes there, some of the mandates are there and the demand from the downstream is very strong. That's coming, when you look around the states In the United States, that's coming. In Canada, I think we're going to see it come globally. So I feel that over time, you're going to see More focus on low carbon fossil approaches like we're doing with Alberta.

Speaker 2

So how can you make plastics from fossil fuels that have 0 CO2 emissions, you're going to see focus on advanced recycling and mechanical recycling and all of the above. And we're just going to place bets in different regions based on what the market demand dictates. Good uptake from the customers. We see good volume growth there. We see pricing ahead of Virgin materials and of course, virgin materials are relatively low right now.

Speaker 2

And we continue to work to get plants certified with ISCC Plus so that we can certify that recycled content for our customers.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy from Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Yes, good morning. Jim, on a year to date basis, we've seen polyethylene export prices rise by, Let's say $0.04 to $0.05 a pound. I'm curious as to what you think is driving that. Would you attribute that pattern to better demand or some of the logistics challenges that have emerged in the Red Sea or perhaps other factors? And then maybe as a related question, if you don't have any unplanned outages, how hard do you think you might be able to run your U.

Speaker 8

S. Gulf Coast, ethylene linked assets in the Q1. Just trying to get a sense of whether the export market might be strong enough to lift up the U. S. Domestic market?

Speaker 2

Yes. Good question, Kevin. I would say if you look back at 2023, in the first half of the year, really the limit on PE export volumes and prices were just More on the volume side, on the supply chain side, it was the ability to get marine pack cargo moving. That improved considerably as we work through the year. In fact, December was one of the highest months of the year for PE export sales and we've got the export channel full and lined up.

Speaker 2

And overall, we're running Canada, United States, Argentina As hard as we can. We ran at rates on crackers above 90% for the back part of the year, especially in Q4. And so to your point unconstrained, if there's no freeze impact or anything else, We're going to be running them hard. The arbitrage is open. The volumes are there.

Speaker 2

We had up double digit volumes for the year In plastics going to China, we actually were up year over year in China on PNSP as well as industrial solutions, and I think a little bit in coatings consumer solutions, I'm sorry, in Consumer Solutions. So we were off in Industrial Solutions because of the Plaquemines outage, but we were up in Slightly up in PU, slightly up in consumer solutions and up double digits in P and SP. So I think the market is there and that is everybody's talking about China being relatively light GDP last year And we can move those kind of volumes. My expectations are taking actions that are going to help 2024 be better. As we do the walk on 2024 for the full year EBITDA walk, We've got about $300,000,000 of margin expansion.

Speaker 2

So we start with $5,400,000,000 in 2023 of EBITDA. We have about $300,000,000 from margin expansion. We've got about $800,000,000 from volume growth. It's in all three segments. We've got turnarounds which cost us $200,000,000 and then we've got about $100,000,000 of improvement from equity earnings in the JVs.

Speaker 2

So net net, you're walking it up to the 6.4%, 6.5% kind of a range for 2024. And I think with soft landing scenario in the United States that will help domestic market, we saw good domestic volume in NP as well here.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 1

Good morning. And Jeff, nice to hear your voice again. Hey, Jim, really appreciate that walk up into 2024. I want to take a step back to Slide 7 where you talked about the projects mid cycle that started up in 2022 should contribute $400,000,000 The projects that started up in 2023 should another $400,000,000 Can you just look at those $800,000,000 worth of mid cycle earnings and suggest what you're anticipating they're going to contribute in 2024?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think, Frank, I think coming back to that and I probably didn't answer what Vince was asking very well at the beginning. I think you're probably looking back half of this year to 2025 Before you start to see mid cycle types of returns, we're not to mid cycle yet. I mean, obviously, we're navigating the bottom here. But I think with interest rates potentially coming off in the first half of the year, some amount that stimulates some demand and mid cycle probably get there.

Speaker 2

So maybe $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 of that, you'll see in 2024 the balance into 2025.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Duffy Fischer from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Speaker 1

Good morning. If you could, just on the $50,000,000 to $100,000,000 on the equity income improvement, Can you walk through your major JVs and just kind of say what's additive, what's subtractive from that number?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. I think you're going to see on Yes. The Sudara JVs year over year should be up, I don't know, say about $100,000,000 Remember, they had some outages in the 1st part of the year. So they had some volume impact in the 1st part of the year. And obviously, they're seeing the same improvements in arbitrage that we're seeing out of the U.

Speaker 2

S. Gulf Coast. You're going to see Kuwait JVs up about 60. Obviously, that's the Strength on ethylene glycol, we saw a bit of that in the Q4 and their ability to run hard as well. I think the Thai JVs will be down.

Speaker 2

A lot of pressure obviously on naphtha cracking and they're based on naphtha cracking. So I expect them to be down about $20,000,000 and then everything else down about $30,000,000 So net net you're up about $100,000,000

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Roberts from Mizuho. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Thanks. And it looks like a pretty smooth transition in finance. So congratulations on the stability there. I believe you were considering some additional infrastructure Could you give us an update on that? Sure.

Speaker 2

And nice to hear your voice on the call, John. Welcome back. Yes, we've got a number of non product producing infrastructure assets that we continue to evaluate. We have in flight for this year greater than $1,000,000,000 I think maybe even greater than $1,500,000,000 of additional cash proceeds from transactions related to that. We had a very successful divestiture in 2020 of our rail and marine infrastructure And that is working well and the idea was there was deliberate some cash, but keep a competitive cost structure And that same mindset is in place here.

Speaker 2

And we think obviously the cash proceeds are going to help us with reinvesting in Revenue generated assets like the Alberta project as we move forward. And then the other cash related kind of unique levers So now for the year is we've got the last part of the settlement from the Nova litigation, which should wind all that up and that's about $500,000,000 for the year. So I'd say net net, we're pushing north of 1.5 Plus the Nova litigation to try to get those kind of unique cash levers into the company. Anything else you want to add, Jim?

Speaker 1

Jim, the only other thing and good morning, John, and thank you. The only other thing I would add is the working capital, structural working capital improvement opportunities that we'll continue to focus on. If you recall, we reduced 8 days and made 8 days of improvement around our cash conversion cycle So tremendous work across team Dow. We're going to look to continue to get at least another 1 to 2 days of improvements out of that, which should also give us another unique to down cash lever. Great.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Cunningham from Citigroup. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning. So you mentioned I, I and I, you mentioned turnarounds Maybe weighted towards the Q1, Plaquemines coming back in 2Q, Freeport bringing on the increase in MDI distillation. Should we expect more significant sequential earnings improvement throughout the year and maybe help size where we can exit the year for the segment? And if you could also just briefly comment on what's driving the direction of MDI and MEG Spreads into 1Q, that'd be great. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think generically that's true, Patrick, that I think you'll see that Builds through the year, Q1, obviously, we mentioned the turnaround. But second quarter, we expect to get Glycol 2 back in Plaquemines, that will be positive. And then 3rd quarter will be more positive, so we'll ramp into the back half of the year. On isocyanates, obviously, the biggest driver is on construction related and durable goods related markets.

Speaker 2

Obviously, There's some impact in automotive as well. Any of the rigids, is where most of that volume gets consumed. So as that Those volumes start to pick up, you'll start to see MDI take off and that's usually a driver of value across the entire portfolio, both the polyols and the MDI side of things. So I'm hoping that we start to stimulate some of that demand in the back half of the year. And I think it was what China is doing in the markets, in the financial markets to try to stimulate some things, Could be between U.

Speaker 2

S. Interest rates and what's going on in China that we see some momentum build in the back half of this year.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Leithead from Barclays. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you. Good morning.

Speaker 10

Two questions on your Sadara joint venture. First, I believe there was a report earlier this month that Aramco is raising feedstock prices. Will that impact Sadara or should we expect input costs there to remain relatively flat? And second, EBITDA remains quite depressed right now relative to net debt at the JV. Should we expect any further restructuring or cash infusion needed over the next year or so?

Speaker 10

Or is the runway there sufficient to get back say more mid cycle type EBITDA levels?

Speaker 2

Yes, it's good question. We've had no Cash contributions that needed to be made to Sadara 'twenty one, 'twenty two, 'twenty three, I'm not expecting any going forward. Sadara itself Like us, when you're navigating the bottom of the cycle is focusing on self help actions to try to pull levers to keep costs down. There is talk in the kingdom about a raise in feedstock prices. And so we'll obviously have to look at things that we can do within Sudar to offset those costs, but those haven't taken hold just yet.

Speaker 2

And then obviously the market comes back. Sudar is very levered to oil price. And so oil clears the market for plastics, especially because that drives the Asia Pacific operating prices and costs. And so when oil price comes up, which the expectations are that that's going to Be constructive as we move into 2025 and beyond. There hasn't been a lot of investment in oil production.

Speaker 2

Demand is back above demand for oil is back above where we were pre pandemic. And yet We have big parts of the market that are not back above where we were pre pandemic. So I think the outlook for demand is that the demand is going to come as Global markets improve, but the supply is going to lag. And so when we're sitting here at $80 oil, That could firm up. You could start to see the top end of oil be pitched more toward $90,000,000 $100 as you get into 25, 2026 timeframe.

Speaker 2

And that has a pretty substantial impact to the bottom line at Sadara. So near term, we're going to navigate our costs at Sadara to keep the costs down and to be able to handle those feedstock costs longer term, obviously lean into the market as the economy improves.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Aleksey Yefremov from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Jim, you just made a couple of comments that Salac Sane's capacity could be absorbed by demand growth. And to me, you sound a little more positive here than in the past. But do you think this upstream silicones market could see margin uplift Maybe within the next 12 months or is this a longer term project?

Speaker 2

Yes. If you look at the amount of capacity that's coming on in 2024 versus what came on in 2023, it's down quite a bit. You've got a couple of projects. There's 4 projects In China that are coming on and I think a couple of them could delay beyond 2024. The down Industry markets have been continuing to grow and we've been continuing to invest in debottlenecking.

Speaker 2

It's just the amount of upstream that's come on has added to that. The other positive that's happened is obviously, silica metal prices have come down too. And so that helps on the input side of things. So I think you're going to see that as the downstream demand continues to improve and as the global economy continues to improve. We're going to see that as the project pipeline for buildings continues to grow.

Speaker 2

And remember, this goes into Everything. It can go into high rise buildings. It can go into new airports. It can go into schools and all kinds of other construction. Those are big volume pools.

Speaker 2

I think as you start to see construction activity pick up and then you're going to see that ramp, We're seeing strong demand in areas. Obviously, EVs were a big part of it. 5 gs and connectivity is a big part of it. Data centers, so as you're looking at things like how to handle cooling on data centers, Silicon Fluids are dielectrics and some immersive cooling applications and data centers, which are big energy hogs and need energy efficiency. That's a growth area for us as well.

Speaker 2

And then the normal downstream demand in consumer goods and Beauty Care products continues to be good. So I'm optimistic. Maybe it may take more into late 'twenty four and into 25 to see it, but I do feel like we're going to start to move toward mid cycle in 2025.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Great. Thanks for taking my question. So that's a good segue actually to what I was thinking about was, if you think about the guidance that you're issuing here for Q1, looks to be in the $1,300,000,000 or so level for EBITDA, give or take a little bit. But Annualizing that will get you to 5.2, and then maybe add in a little bit for seasonality, it gets you to closer to 6,000,000,000 Would you consider that kind of trough like conditions? And as you move through the year in 2024, what are some of the things that makes you excited that we could maybe achieve mid cycle by when you're exiting the year.

Speaker 12

And I guess maybe if you can just comment on What your expectations are for China growth going forward? Obviously, we'll likely see maybe a slower growth environment for the next 4 or 5 years versus the last 4 or 5 years. Just wanted to get

Speaker 2

your thoughts on that as well. Thanks. Yes. I think the things that are Structured to me as we're moving forward is no new capacity coming in and plastics and packaging and specialty plastics. You've got high operating rates in all the cost advantage regions of the world and you've got Export arbitrage window opened to China, as I mentioned, double digit growth for us in China.

Speaker 2

And I think Our view is we're able to move continue to move products. India has been strong. So we're moving product into India. Mexico has been really strong. We supply a lot of plastics to Mexico by rail.

Speaker 2

I think that's all positive. I would say our view in the Americas, our view in Asia Pacific is China comes back, so will the rest of Asia Pacific. And then our view in Europe is a bit mixed. Energy cost is better in Europe, which I think in the short term helps. It's not as big a drag as it was.

Speaker 2

But I think longer term, Europe's got some structural issues if we can't get energy costs down even lower. It puts a big weight on the consumer, which puts a big weight on demand, but puts additional weight on the industrial economy. So fortunately, we've got some cost advantage positions there that help us, and I think we'll navigate through that. Back half of the year, we've got industrial solutions coming back to full strength. We've got our new projects coming on that I just mentioned, dollars 300,000,000 to 400,000,000 That's all in that volume growth number that I talked about.

Speaker 2

And then margin expansions, just the oil to gas spread on our existing business and the strength that we're going to see in some pricing and polyethylene for the year. So I think we're going to ramp in to 25, Get ourselves kind of back on to a mid cycle run rate. And we're going to in the meantime, we're going to Pull the levers like we've been doing to manage cash, keep the balance sheet strong, be the 1st mover in the next Wave with the Alberta project just like we were with Texas 9. This is the right time to do it. This is the time to lock in the low cost for construction And we're ready to roll.

Operator

This ends our question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Gupta for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Rob. Thank you everyone for joining our call and we appreciate your interest in Dow. We'll be referencing a copy of our transcript will be posted in DALA's website within approximately 48 hours. This concludes our call.

Speaker 1

Thank you again.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation.

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
DOW Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00