Otis Worldwide Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
January 31, 2024

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Otis' 4th Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being carried live on the Internet and recorded for replay. Presentation materials are available for download from Otis' website at www.otis.com. I'll now turn it over to Michael Redner, Vice President of Investor Relations. Michael.

Operator

You may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Christa. Welcome to Otis' Q4 2023 earnings conference call. Recorded. On the call with me today are Judy Marks, Chair, CEO and President and Anurag Maheshwari, Executive Vice President and CFO. Recorded.

Speaker 1

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding restructuring and significant non recurring items. Recorded. A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the appendix of the webcast. We also remind listeners that the presentation contains forward looking statements, subject to risks and uncertainties. Otis' SEC filings, including our Form 10 ks and quarterly reports on Form 10 Q, provided details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Speaker 1

Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Judy.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mike, and thank you everyone for joining us. We hope everyone listening is safe and well. We delivered a strong Q4 to cap off strong full year performance. We entered 2024 with confidence in our service driven business model, remaining focused on our strategic pillars, including deliver modernization value, which we added as our 5th strategic imperative last year, while driving operational excellence. Recorded.

Speaker 2

We achieved these results with the hard work of our colleagues around the globe. So I want to thank each of you for your hard work, committed to our customers and demonstration of our Otis Absolutes. Starting on Slide 3, We achieved full year organic sales growth in all regions with total Otis organic sales growth of 5.6% driven by service, which grew 7.7%. We grew our industry leading maintenance portfolio by a record high of 4.2% for the year, recorded and it now stands at about 2,300,000 units, a new milestone for our company. We delivered strong low teens adjusted EPS growth for the year, including mid teens growth in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 2

Modernization orders were up 18.8% for the year, including low teens growth in the 4th quarter. Our modernization backlog is up 15%. Recorded. New equipment orders in Q4 increased 2.9% and our new equipment backlog increased 2% for 2023. Recorded.

Speaker 2

In 2023, we achieved approximately 50 basis points of new equipment share gain. Heading into 2024, as our backlogs have continued to grow, we have good visibility on our new equipment sales recorded despite the uncertain macro environment and we expect strong sales growth in our modernization business. We generated approximately $1,500,000,000 in adjusted free cash flow, allowing us to return approximately $1,350,000,000 of cash recorded to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Additionally, earlier in 2023, we began executing initiatives related to our customer centric uplift program, focused on gaining scale across our global organization to unlock synergies, standardizing our processes to generate efficiencies and optimizing our supplier and indirect spend. Our streamlining and transformation efforts are on track to achieve $150,000,000 of run rate savings in mid-twenty 25 as we previously indicated.

Speaker 2

Recorded. To summarize, 2023 was characterized by solid organic sales growth, adjusted operating profit margin expansion recorded in nearly 12% EPS growth, outperforming our medium term guidance. We are well positioned as we enter 2024 recorded as we focus on executing our growing new equipment and modernization backlogs with greater than 4% maintenance unit growth supporting sales growth recorded in our maintenance and repair business. We also made meaningful progress toward our 13 ESG goals in 2023, emphasizing the alignment of our absolutes of safety, ethics and quality with our business strategy. Importantly, in early November, We announced our commitment to setting near term science based greenhouse gas reduction targets, which have been formally submitted to the science based targets initiative for evaluation.

Speaker 2

Turning to our orders performance on Slide 4. New equipment orders returned to growth in the quarter, up 2.9% recorded with quarter over quarter acceleration in all regions. Orders were down 3.9% for the year recorded as mid teens growth in Asia Pacific and low single digit growth in EMEA were offset by declines in China and the Americas. Overall, globally, new equipment units were down approximately 8% to roughly 850,000 units in 2023. Despite these macro challenges, we were able to achieve about 50 basis points of new equipment share gain on top of the nearly 3 point increase between 2020 2022 and we were able to grow our new equipment backlog, which was up 2%.

Speaker 2

Launched, launching the Gen 3 Core in North America and expanding the deployment of Gen 3 60 to China. Recorded. In addition, we launched the Gen 3 Mod Plus, a package of upgrades to support our modernization business in the Americas, recorded, which also includes connectivity to our OtisOne IoT platform. R and D and strategic investments remained relatively stable recorded at about 1.4% as a percent of sales for the year, reflecting our ability to invest and innovate efficiently. We strengthened our number one position globally, accelerating our portfolio growth to over 4% for a 2nd year in a row.

Speaker 2

Demonstrated the power of geographic diversification within our business with double digit portfolio growth in China, mid single digit growth in Asia Pacific and low single digit growth in the Americas and EMEA. Globally, Our recaptures offset our cancellations for the 2nd consecutive year, leading to conversions as a portfolio growth driver, in line with our strategy. China conversion rate continues to improve, currently standing at about 51% and approximately 4% improvement versus 2022. Additional details on our portfolio growth in 2023 can be found in the appendix as accelerating our portfolio growth is an essential component of our long term strategy and top line growth algorithm. At year end 2023, recorded.

Speaker 2

We have 900,000 connected units, of which 500,000 use our OtisOne IoT solution. Our service sales force performed well throughout the year with like for like maintenance pricing of 4 points, helping to mitigate labor cost headwinds within the business. Our 5th strategic pillar of delivering modernization value is performing. Modernization orders were up 16.8%, driven by double digit growth in Asia, particularly in Korea, as the strength of our in our mod package offerings continues to drive results. Additionally, the Americas And EMEA drove strong 4th quarter modernization major project bookings.

Speaker 2

Our modernization backlog is up 15% versus the prior year, giving us good line of sight for strong growth in 2024. We continue to win many exciting projects based on our innovation, ability to deliver and the trust our customers have in us. As we build, service and modernize our customers' elevators and escalators, we build loyalty and value with increasing recurring revenue streams. Recorded for new equipment in China, Otis is building on decades of close cooperation with the nation's metro providers recorded to help expand Urban Transport and City Development. We will provide 2 37 escalators and elevators for Line 15 of the Chongqing Metro in West China, recorded while incorporating OtisOne on these units.

Speaker 2

Otis has a long history with Chongqing Metro, which carries more than 4,000,000 passengers daily recorded across rugged terrain on a network that is famous for its ingenious design and engineering. Recorded. In San Francisco, Otis was awarded a comprehensive modernization of all 16 elevator units at 560 Mission Street. Recorded. The project includes the installation of custom cab interiors and our Compass 360 Destination Dispatch System.

Speaker 2

Recorded. In addition, Otis has been awarded the maintenance contract for the 31 storey commercial office building, extending our relationship with Commonwealth Partners and contributing to our service recaptures in the quarter. In Hong Kong, we are honored to have been selected for a modernization project at Shinyaw Estate. This project for the Hong Kong Housing Authority, a long standing customer, includes the modernization of 18 elevators, which will all be maintained by Otis upon completion. The new units will use gearless machines with energy efficient drives recorded to meet the project's environmentally conscious requirements.

Speaker 2

In Dubai, Otis will modernize recorded in the Q4 of 2018. We take pride in being the original equipment manufacturer and maintenance provider one of the world's tallest building since its opening. MR Properties has trusted us with the upgrade of their controllers and drives and providing the latest technology for this iconic building. In addition, the contract extends our service agreement for another 10 years. Recorded.

Speaker 2

And last, also in EMEA, for nearly 130 years, visitors have taken Otis Elevators to the top of the Eiffel Tower, where we're delivering a multiyear modernization of the Siconix Towers 2 Duo Lifts. Turning to the 4th quarter results on Slide 5. Recorded. For the Q4, reported sales of $3,600,000,000 were up 5.3%. Organic sales grew for the 13th consecutive quarter and were up 3.8 percent with high single digit growth in service, while new equipment was roughly flat in the face of the macro challenges, noted in China.

Speaker 2

Adjusted operating profit, excluding a $9,000,000 foreign exchange tailwind, increased $52,000,000 with profit growth in both segments. Adjusted EPS grew 16% recorded for $0.12 in the quarter. We ended the year with 4th quarter adjusted free cash flow of $573,000,000 allowing us to finish the year strong at approximately $1,500,000,000 With that, I'll turn it over to Anurag to walk through our 2023 results in more detail.

Speaker 3

Recorded. Thank you, Judy. Starting with segment sales performance on Slide 6. Otis 4th quarter new equipment sales were $1,500,000,000 organic sales roughly flat driven by high single digit growth in Asia Pacific offsetting mid single digit declines in China. Americas and EMEA were up low single digits and roughly flat respectively.

Speaker 3

For service, we delivered another strong quarter of organic sales growth at 6.8% with strong performance across all lines of business and regions. Maintenance and repair sales were up 6.8% And lot sales were up 7%, including the 3rd consecutive quarter of double digit growth in Asia. For the full year, New equipment sales were $5,800,000,000 and organic sales grew 2.6% with solid growth in all regions outside of China. New equipment pricing was up low single digits globally with Asia Pacific up low single digits, the Americas up mid single digits an EMEA up high single digits. Although the pricing environment in China remains challenging, we remain price cost neutral in the region from a continued focus on price discipline and material productivity.

Speaker 3

Service sales were $8,400,000,000 recorded with 7.7 percent organic growth and all lines of business showing high single digit growth, including another year of outstanding performance in repair, recorded. Service sales were $8,400,000,000 with 7.7 percent organic growth recorded and all lines of business showing high single digit growth including another year of outstanding performance in repair marking a 3 year CAGR in the low teens. Maintenance pricing excluding the impact of mix and churn came in about as expected up roughly 4 points for the year. Turning to segment operating profit performance on Slide 7. Starting with new equipment, we delivered our best margin expansion for the year in the 4th recorded, up 120 basis points.

Speaker 3

Adjusted operating profit excluding $3,000,000 of ForEx headwind was up $20,000,000 as strong productivity, pricing and commodity tailwinds were partially offset by unfavorable regional and product mix alongside higher SG and A expense. Turning to service, 4th quarter adjusted operating profit excluded from $13,000,000 of ForEx tailwind was up $33,000,000 as higher volumes, favorable maintenance pricing and productivity partially offset by annual wage increases and higher material costs. For the past 16 consecutive quarters, We have delivered consistent service margin expansion and for the 2nd consecutive year, we expanded margin by 50 basis points exiting the year at a 24% rate. For the full year, overall operating profit was up $166,000,000 at constant currency recorded and margin expanded 30 basis points. Despite the weakness in China, we were able to achieve $26,000,000 of new equipment profit growth at constant currency as pricing, productivity and growth in all other regions more than offset unfavorable mix.

Speaker 3

This performance was better than anticipated and put us at the midpoint of our initial full year guidance for operating profit growth recorded at constant currency as we overcame the weaker macro backdrop experienced during the year. Service operating profit increased $178,000,000 at constant currency, supported by strong volume, pricing and productivity. Since then, we have increased service margins by 2 40 basis points. Slide 8 lays out the full year 2023 adjusted EPS bridge. Adjusted EPS in the year grew $0.37 driven by $0.29 of solid operational performance.

Speaker 3

Accretion from the Zidoya transaction, share repurchases of $800,000,000 and optimization of our tax rate by 40 basis points drove an additional $0.12 which more than offset $0.04 of foreign exchange headwinds. Additionally, we closed out 2023 recorded with notable adjusted free cash flow of $573,000,000 in the quarter, up more than 30% versus the prior year, driven by higher net income and favorable working capital. In addition to the growth in down payments from increased new equipment orders in the quarter, The team continued to manage working capital well. As a result, we achieved our annual guidance generating approximately 1 $500,000,000 of adjusted free cash flow. If we were to look back to the beginning of 2023, We initially guided that we would achieve low to mid single digit sales growth, 20 to 30 basis points of operating profit margin expansion an approximately 8% EPS growth.

Speaker 3

Due to our operational performance, continued penetration of repair sales on a growing maintenance base, robust pricing and productivity. We were able to outperform all these metrics despite an uncertain macro environment recorded and grew adjusted EPS by approximately 12%, all while returning approximately $1,350,000,000 to the shareholders. With a strong end to the year on new equipment orders and solid modernization order activity throughout 2023, we further expanded both our new equipment and mod back

Speaker 2

Starting on Slide 9 with the market outlook. In the Americas market in 2023, The market was down low teens as double digit decline in North America was partially offset by low single digit growth in Latin America. In EMEA, Western and Central Europe were the primary drivers, leading to a market that was down high single digits. Recorded. In Asia, the market was down mid single digits with a solid year in Asia Pacific up low single digits, In 2024, the global new equipment market is expected to be down low to mid single digits in units, with markets in the Americas and EMEA down low single digits and markets in Asia down low to mid single digits driven by China.

Speaker 2

While new equipment market dynamics remain fluid, the long term fundamentals of the industry are well supported by the service driven growth model. Recorded. In 2024, the global installed base is expected to grow at a similar rate to that of 2023 at around mid single digits reached approximately 22,500,000 units. In the Americas and EMEA, we expect low single digit growth And in Asia, we're expecting mid single digit growth driven by China. Overall, we expect service to be the growth driver for the industry recorded and we expect the same for our business.

Speaker 2

With this as the industry backdrop, for Otis, we expect net sales of 14.5 recorded to $14,800,000,000 growing 3% to 5% organically or 2% to 4% at actual currency. Adjusted operating profit is expected to be between $2,400,000,000 $2,450,000,000 up $125,000,000 to $175,000,000 of actual currency or $150,000,000 to $190,000,000 recorded in the range of $3.80 recorded to 3 $0.90 up 7% to 10% or nearly $0.25 at the midpoint versus the prior year. Finally, we expect adjusted free cash flow of approximately $1,600,000,000 With our commitment to a disciplined capital Cajun's strategy. We expect to repurchase approximately $800,000,000 in shares in 2024 as we look to grow our dividend payout and pursue our typical $50,000,000 to $100,000,000 of bolt on M and A. With that, let me hand it back to Anurag to outline the 2024 segment outlook in more detail.

Speaker 3

Recorded. Starting on Slide 10 for the new equipment outlook. We have good line of sight for new equipment sales due to our backlog coverage, which extends out to over a year of sales. This in combination with the share gain initiatives and incremental pricing actions we have taken over the past few years positioned us relatively well for 2024. As a result, we anticipate new equipment organic sales to be flattish recorded with Americas and EMEA up low single digits and Asia Pacific up mid single digits with mid single digit declines in China.

Speaker 3

We expect new equipment profit margin to be flat to up 10 basis points with roughly steady volume and tailwinds from pricing, productivity, commodities Driving strong material and installation productivity and faster backlog conversion will remain a priority with the goal to again outperform our targets. Turning to Slide 11 for the service outlook. Starting with sales, we expect another solid year in service and anticipate organic sales growth of 6% to 7%. Maintenance and repair organic sales are expected to be up 5.5% to 6.5%, driven by the significant additions to our maintenance portfolio and approximately one point of net pricing after adjusting for mix and churn. Mid single digit repair growth will also contribute through both our traditional and digital channels, although at a more moderate pace than what we saw in 2023.

Speaker 3

For modernization, we anticipate organic sales growth of about 8% as we execute on a solid backlog which similar to new equipment extends out over a year and ended the year up in the mid teens. Our strategy of standardizing products driving more supply chain and factory optimization that enable us to accelerate sales growth above the 7% achieved in 2023. This also has the added benefit of helping to drive modernization margin expansion. Turning to service profit, We expect roughly 50 basis points of margin expansion. Continued strong volume, price, productivity and uplift are expected to more than offset Annual wage inflation and higher SG and A similar to 2023.

Speaker 3

Now turning to Slide 12. We began executing project uplift initiatives in the second half of twenty twenty three as we leverage enterprise scale, Optimize our indirect and supply chain spend and improve and standardize our processes. We are on track to achieve a targeted savings of $150,000,000 recorded with $80,000,000 of run rate savings anticipated by year end 2024 $150,000,000 in run rate savings by mid-twenty 25. Out of the $150,000,000 in total savings to be realized, nearly half will come from leveraging enterprise scale, roughly 25% from indirect and supply chain optimization and the rest from process improvements and standardization. We continue to analyze and execute on the opportunities and estimate 70% of the savings will be in the service segment recorded with the remaining split between new equipment and corporate.

Speaker 3

Moving to the 24 EPS bridge on Slide 13. Our guidance for adjusted EPS is $3.80 to $3.90 driven by approximately $0.30 of operating profit growth at the midpoint, Reflecting organic sales growth of 3% to 5% with approximately 50 basis points of margin expansion. Below the line we expect to offset $0.03 to $0.04 of ForEx and increased interest expense headwinds with continued optimization of our tax rate recorded and the benefit of approximately $800,000,000 in share repurchases supported by $1,600,000,000 in adjusted free cash flow. Recorded. Looking at the EPS cadence for the year, we expect the $0.30 of EPS growth to be fairly level loaded recorded between the first and the second half, while in the first half we expect the first quarter EPS growth to be a $0.02 lighter than the second quarter.

Speaker 3

Recorded. A little bit more color on the Q1 metrics starting with orders. We face a difficult compare versus the Q1 of last year where we grew more than 7%, so we expect new equipment orders to be down roughly 10%, while portfolio and modernization orders growth should remain strong. Recorded. As for sales and profit, sales growth will be roughly 3% and total company operating profit margins should expand over 50 basis points in line with the prior year due to timing will be offset by lower share count.

Speaker 3

All in, this should lead to $0.06 to $0.07 of EPS growth, driven primarily by operational performance. Overall, our outlook reflects another year of performance led by consistent service business. We remain focused on continuing to mitigate macro challenges and further driving shareholder value. With that, I will request Christa to please open the line for questions.

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Good morning and thanks for the early question. So, as a solid outlook for 2024, I I think you mentioned, Anarik, 1% price for new equipment. I know we've had some weakness in China. So just wondering if there's any So significant SKUs across the geographies that you called out there.

Speaker 4

Maybe, again, excuse me if I missed it, but what would you expect to service pricing this year?

Speaker 3

Okay. Thanks for the question. Let me clarify the one person that I spoke in their prepared comments Was on maintenance pricing. So what we'll see is we'll see adjusted for mix and churn. So we'll see about 3% on a like to like basis and adjust for that.

Speaker 3

On the new equipment side, clearly we've seen good price increases in 2023 in America, EMEA and AP. Some of that will continue over in 24 new equipment, but China does have price pressure as we saw in 2023, but it's a deflationary economy. So we expect it to be price cost neutral.

Speaker 4

Okay. But no evidence of pricing deflation outside of China?

Speaker 2

No, Nigel, none at all.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. And then just on the Uplift savings, obviously, we're starting to see those coming through in 2024. Where Whether these land mainly this year, I mean, would you say more new equipment or services? And I'm just curious if we're seeing any kind of upward trajectory on the modernization margins. I know that's an initiative that you're focused on.

Speaker 4

Just wondering if we're going to see some of that coming through in 2024?

Speaker 2

Yes, Nigel. Let me talk to the uplift in 2023. We pretty much saw it across the board, again early days, but pretty pleased with the savings we've seen and more importantly, the trajectory of where we're going with the process work, with the organizational model, and really changing how we work to be more customer focused. Anurag, I'll let you touch on mod margins.

Speaker 3

Yes. On the margins, as we said a few months ago that we expect it to be at par with new equipment in a few months and then started going up and we see that trajectory pretty good. We'll give a little bit more color on the Investor Day in a couple of weeks, But that is on the right trend. And for the uplift savings, I think the cadence what I outlined in the prepared comments, 70% in service And the rest between new equipment and corporate that should be for this year as well. So we're going to exit the year $80,000,000 and in year of $40,000,000 With similar cadence across that.

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks for that.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gautam Khanna from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning, guys.

Speaker 2

Good morning. I was wondering if

Speaker 5

you could quantify the net Savings from Uplift and how we should think about that this year and next?

Speaker 3

This year and next. Yes. So the thanks, Gautam, for the question. The $40,000,000 is net savings, which is flowing through to the P and L Right. So if you look at in 2024, we are going to grow our operating Profit at constant currency by approximately $170,000,000 About $140,000,000 of that is price cost.

Speaker 3

The price is what Nigel asked me earlier a little bit from the service side, from the new equipment side, we're still seeing commodity tailwinds A little bit lighter than 23, but that's obviously positive. So the and then uplift is contributing $40,000,000 to that, Right. So if you add all of that together, we're getting about price cost of about $140,000,000 and the rest is coming from volume net of mix. So the $40,000,000 of uplift is 100% net flow through to the P and L.

Speaker 5

Got it. And then to your Earlier comment on China and the new equipment market. It doesn't sound like you're talking about price erosion due to Competition per se, but rather is there some other reason for is it just lower costs across all the competitors or if If you could just expand on what's going on in China new equipment pricing.

Speaker 2

Sure. So really it's a very competitive market. We'll start there. And the market remains weak. We've called it north of 10% in terms of what we saw this year.

Speaker 2

And we're going to be very focused on continued productivity savings. But in a deflationary environment, we're seeing cost come down too and that's really what's helping. The commodity costs are coming down and it gives us this price cost neutral ability. Now listen, every day in China, we're on new equipment, we're balancing the quality of the orders, The volume we're taking in and what that's contributing to our backlog margin. And we are in a market that's down 10% in this recorded.

Speaker 2

Sally and the team did a great job. We were down 5% in terms of orders. And so we did gain share When you look at it as a whole, our China business contributed significantly this year and their profit for the year was up year over year when you look all in because what we've done is we've really executed our strategy well on new equipment with key accounts with our sales coverage. But just as importantly, we've focused on pivoting more and growing our service business. Our service sales have grown mid teen CAGRs, and we ServiceNow accounts for 25% of our China sales, Which is up from mid teens a few years ago.

Speaker 2

We had 20% growth in both units and value in service in this last quarter and that's the trend we've been on. So it's about balance and new equipment, It's a growing service and lives story.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi. Good morning. I just Wanted to clarify perhaps on the new equipment outlook. You've got the Slide 9, I think the Market down in every region and globally for the year. How are you thinking about the backlog trending Even with the orders down, so you had a sort of a book to bill, I guess, over one times in 2023 in new equipment.

Speaker 6

So just Trying to understand in 2024, how we're thinking about the sort of backlog progression there and the implied book to bill? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. So the backlog itself, Julian, is obviously, we're going in with 2%. We really couldn't be more pleased with how especially Americas and EMEA really drove strong new equipment orders in the 4th quarter. Americas was up 6%, EMA was up 11%. So everyone's going in with backlog strength with the exception of China backlog is down mid single digits as we go into 2024, but it's that strong backlog that's giving us that line of sight in the majority of our regions that gives us the confidence that we can between that and new equipment share gain of 50 basis

Speaker 3

Thanks, Judy. So as you said, Julian, our book to bill was more than 1 in 23. We expect that to be similar in 2024 Because orders are quite higher than our new equipment revenue. So as we go through the course of the year, we do expect to finish Even if we perform in line with our market outlook and don't even increase share, we should end the year at a backlog flattish to be slightly higher. Clearly, the comps are tough for us in the Q1 in terms of new equipment orders, but then they get easier for us in the second and third quarter.

Speaker 3

So you will see a little bit of gyration quarter by quarter, but we are confident that given this market outlook, if it stays the way, we should remain end the year with a flattish or slightly higher backlog.

Speaker 6

That's helpful. Thank you. And then maybe just one for Judy on particularly sort of North America and EMEA, how you're Seeing that market right now in terms of sort of verticals and how customers are behaving in new equipment. Are you seeing There's particular weakness in office versus multifamily. Are you seeing projects being delayed?

Speaker 6

Or it's Sort of existing projects are going ahead on plan and it's the new projects that maybe it's just taking longer for customers to sign off. Any sort of color on that on North America

Speaker 2

Sure, Julie. Let me start with North America. And as I said, our teams out there And it goes back to these long term customer relationships that really enable the orders book to be up and the backlog to be up. But for context, the new equipment market segment in units in North America finished last year the lowest since the GFC. And yet we still we gained share, we delivered and we increased pricing.

Speaker 2

So our team is performing very well there. When we look at the Segments themselves, none of the segments are strong in North America. Multifamily is the weakest due to several years of outpaced growth. If I had to rank order them, infrastructure is the best, and we've had really good success with major projects. We're going to continue to grow there.

Speaker 2

But all of the segments, none of them are strong in North America. And so this is going to be a year where The benefit to Otis and why we're going to be successful is we invested in the low rise market. We introduced our Gen 3 core product We've seen a great pipeline for Gen 3 core and that gives us the encouragement between the backlog And the orders we're seeing to know that we can it's a mid single digit backlog in North America. So and that gives us a good 12, 18 plus months line of sight for next year's revenue. In Europe, South Europe remains strong, led by Spain.

Speaker 2

We're seeing sustained activity. Central Northern Europe is weak. And again, there infrastructure Tends to lead residential is a little better in Europe than it is in North America by far. But again, we what we see on the ground, whether it's the German economy or any of the other locations is Looks to us like 2024 looks like 23 in terms of the segments in Europe.

Speaker 6

That's very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Miguel Borrega from BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one, just on China, the market, the competitive environment in China. Obviously, as you said, the market remains weak. But do you sense increased pricing pressure over the last quarter or so?

Speaker 7

1 of your peers reported strong market share gains in Q4. So just wanted to get your views on anything incremental to what we've seen so far.

Speaker 2

Sure. Well, listen, Miguel, performance can vary in any given quarter based on compares, but I like to take a step back. And overall for 2023, we believe we gained share in China with the market down north of 10 and us coming in again down about 5% or and actually even low single digits when you look for the year, but let me try and give you some additional color here. 1st, we did perform better in the first half of the year versus the second half, but we always manage volume and share versus profitability. Recorded and we manage those dials appropriately while maintaining momentum on our share growth.

Speaker 2

Our order value declined mid single digits and we spoken all year about the deflation that's impacted the market, but we've been able to offset the price decline with better productivity. And when you look at our strategy in China, we've added the agents and distributors, it's given us the geographic and vertical coverage, And we've continued to innovate and invest in our products. We've brought multiple products to the market in China. We've upgraded our escalator offering, Our Oh eight thousand and we brought Gen 360 to the market in China over the past year and that will yield for us and give us an advantage this year because of our again our reach in terms of our sales channel. Overall, We've increased our bookings in China by nearly 20% since pre spin, while over the market over that same multiyear period is down 10% to 15%.

Speaker 2

So our strategy is working. Our team is out there every day focused. We are our backlog, While it's down mid single digits, the quality of our backlog, the profitability of our backlog, we're not sacrificing for volume.

Speaker 7

That's great. Thank you very much. And then my second question, if you can talk a little bit about modernization. You mentioned backlog is up 15%. What is driving that quota exactly?

Speaker 7

And how should we think about it from here 2024 2025? And then on the margin of modernization, you mentioned that par with new equipment, I think one of your peers stated that margins are even higher than maintenance. Where do you think the difference lies? And would you see those margins in modernization growing ahead of the other segments for you in the next few years? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. So I'll comment a little on let me talk about the market and a little bit on the margins because the margins vary by region in terms of modernization margins, but the mod market is up nicely in all regions. And the majority of that is just driven by the refurbishment required due to the aging equipment that's out based on construction cycles from 20 plus years ago. We're just in a natural growth cycle now where You're going to see year over year additional mod. Really pleased with the backlog up.

Speaker 2

This was our 6th consecutive quarter of orders up over 10%. Asia Pacific really was the standout, again with Korea. But we have a great mod product in China, and our China orders, albeit on a small base because it's a little bit of a younger installed base is growing significantly double digit and Americas and EMEA, as I said in my prepared comments, really had a strong major project contribution in mod orders in the Q4, and we expect that to continue. Again, in terms of margins, As Anurag shared, we will surpass new equipment margins shortly. But when you look in different geographies, there are The market is a combination again of aging and safety regulations and demand creation.

Speaker 2

And I'm really proud of our team because when a part goes obsolete, our team is out there, our sales team is out there, our mechanics are out there, They're ensuring our customers know what they need to keep their elevators not just current, but to prepare them for the future. I'm really encouraged By modernization, we've organized around it. We've set up this as a 5th strategic imperative. We have mod kits Because we are going to industrialize how we do mod, so it will look more like new equipment coming out of a factory and that's what's going to drive the margin expansion.

Speaker 3

Yes. Just to add to that, Miguel, I mean, I can't speak about the others, but for us, we're clearly seeing the trajectory on mod margins pickup and there's no reason why it should be much higher than new equipment. And as we standardize our products, optimize our supply chain, do better on the go to market strategy, we We see that inching up. And as I said, we'll talk more about it in the next couple of weeks. But clearly, the margin should be outpaced new equipment margins.

Speaker 7

That's great color. Thank you very much.

Operator

We have no further questions in our queue at at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Judy Marks for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Christa. 2023 proved to be another strong year for Otis as we focused on our strategic imperatives to drive value for all stakeholders. Recorded. We head into 2024 supported by the strength of our service driven customer centric business model and remain excited to share our 2024 successes with all of you. We look forward to you joining us at our Investor Day at the New York Stock Exchange on February 15.

Speaker 2

Please stay safe and well. Thank you.

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Earnings Conference Call
Otis Worldwide Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00