Iridium Communications Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 17, 2024

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Iridium's 2024 Third Quarter Earnings Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ken Levy, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Megan. Good morning, and welcome to Iridium's Q3 2024 earnings call. Joining me on this morning's call are our CEO, Matt Dessch and our CFO, Tom Fitzpatrick. Today's call will begin with a discussion of our Q3 results followed by Q and A. I trust you've had an opportunity to review this morning's earnings release, which is available on the Investor Relations section of Iridium's website.

Speaker 1

Before I turn things over to Matt, I'd like to caution all participants that our call may contain forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward looking statements are statements that are not historical fact and include statements about our future expectations, plans and prospects. Such forward looking statements are based upon our current beliefs and expectations and are subject to risks, which could cause actual results to differ from forward looking statements. Such risks are more fully discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Our remarks today should be considered in light of such risks.

Speaker 1

Any forward looking statements represent our views only as of today, and while we may elect to update forward looking statements at some point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our views or expectations change. During the call, we'll also be referring to certain non GAAP financial measures, including operational EBITDA, pro form a free cash flow, free cash flow yield and free cash flow conversion. These non GAAP financial measures are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. Please refer to today's earnings release and the Investor Relations section of our website for further explanation of these non GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. With that, let me turn things over to Matt.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Ken. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 2

As you saw in our press release this morning, we delivered another strong quarter of revenue and subscriber growth and remain on track to achieve the higher end of our full year guidance. We're also having a productive year of new product launches and good progress on strategic efforts like Project Stardust, which are developing quickly. We remain a very unique player in the satellite communications industry, having carved out a leadership position in IoT and mobility applications and are generating significant cash flow while expanding into new markets like PNT and standards based IoT and direct to device. As another marker of our progress, I want to highlight unlike most companies in the space industry that we are actively returning capital to shareholders. In the Q3, we returned $146,000,000 to shareholders through dividends and our expanded share repurchase program.

Speaker 2

In all, we repurchased 4,700,000 shares, which reduced our outstanding share count by about 4%. That's a record number of shares retired for a single quarter since the inception of our buyback program. We believe that our equity represents a compelling investment opportunity and plan to continue with this program in light of the Board's authorization of an additional $500,000,000 in September. Iridium has now returned more than 1,000,000,000 We have been served well by continuing to grow and develop our ecosystem of global partners. Today, we have more than 500 companies, which include resellers, value added developers and equipment manufacturers who build their solutions on our network because Iridium is the best choice to connect their unique applications.

Speaker 2

Iridium's L band cross linked constellation remains the foundation of our success and it's the knowledge and deep domain expertise of these global partners that drives the virtuous cycle of feedback and innovation that attract new subscribers to our network. I'm not sure that all investors understand this aspect of our business, yet it remains a key ingredient of our go to market strategy that sets Iridium apart from other satellite providers. We've had a busy quarter in terms of announcements that reflect our vision and strategy for the future. I'd like to take a moment to update you on a few of these as they add to Iridium's reach and capabilities and will drive our growth in the coming years. First, Iridium NTN Direct.

Speaker 2

Last month, we issued a press release with an update on Project Stardust, a service which we will introduce in early 2026 as Iridium NTN Direct and that program is making great progress. We've always said that Iridium would be an important player in direct to device and providing standards based IoT from space and we were excited to share that Iridium satellite technology slated to be included in the next release of the 3 gsPP standard known as Release 19. This paves the way for Iridium's L band frequencies and technology to be accessible via industry standard chipsets. Release 19 is scheduled to be completed in the Q4 of next year and will serve as the backbone for our consumer oriented D2D offerings for smartphones and wearables and will also support inbound roaming of terrestrial narrowband IoT devices and applications onto our highly reliable truly global NB IoT satellite network. You may have seen our announcement last week with Nordic Semiconductor who is working on the early integration of Iridium NTN Direct into their standards based chips.

Speaker 2

They're a strategically important relationship for us and you'll hear announcements over time from others who are adopting Iridium into their standards based hardware as well. 2nd, I wanted to highlight the introduction of Garmin's new inReach Messenger Plus in mid September. This consumer satellite device leverages our new Iridium Certus IoT service called Iridium Messaging Transport, what we call IMT for short and supports sending photos and voice messages. These new capabilities complement the two way texting and SOS services that consumers have come to rely on and are expected to expand usage and find even more users for Garmin all over the world. With a battery life of up to 600 hours, this device is an example of another purpose built ruggedized weather resistant product that recreational users look for and often plan their activities around.

Speaker 2

We also believe that these expanded capabilities will be adopted by other commercial and government IoT users as our IMT technology, which has been integrated into our Iridium Certus IoT and mid band transceivers will soon be available through more of our partners. 3rd, we also unveiled Iridium Certus GMDSS for Mariner's, which will be supported by a new series of new by a series of new terminals coming to market this quarter. These combine Iridium Certus broadband technology with 3 important and required maritime safety and security services: GMDSS, LRI T, which stands for long range identification and tracking and SSAS, which is the ship security alert system. The combination of these capabilities within one terminal sets a new standard for cost, efficiency and performance of maritime safety and security solutions for vessels in need of these critical network systems. This will also continue to ensure that Iridium is the preferred choice on ships to complement Ka and Ku broadband connections.

Speaker 2

4th, I want to acknowledge Iridium's award of an upside contract from the Space Development Agency, where we're working with General Dynamics Mission Systems to manage and integrate ground infrastructure and operations across multiple satellite suppliers for SDA's new proliferated warfighter space architecture. With our most recent award, the total value of our contract with the SDA grows to approximately $400,000,000 since inception, of which $260,000,000 or so remains to be recognized through 2029 with potential for additional opportunities in the future. The increase in our scope of work on this multiyear project supports our outlook for record engineering support revenues this year. Finally, I want to end with an update on Iridium PNT. We've made swift progress to integrate Satellis into our company since acquiring them in the Q2.

Speaker 2

This acquisition makes Iridium the market leader in alternate PNT and allows us to address the growing threats to GPS signals by offering secure PNT to data centers, maritime, in building wireless systems and other market areas. Last month, our team was in Norway showcasing our PNT capabilities at one of the industry's large public testing events. Iridium's STL solution performed exceptionally well through a series of staged GPS jamming and spoofing attacks, demonstrating our technical leadership and readiness for the growing market for commercial and civil applications. We're getting great feedback on our opportunity, especially since expanding the availability of this service to Europe and Asia. There is particular interest from maritime and other users around areas of geopolitical conflict where daily jamming and spoofing are having real operational and economic impacts.

Speaker 2

Our partners are excited about the business opportunity offered by Iridium's alternate PNTIA and are having conversations with their customers to fortify GPS signals against the growing threats they're seeing in their respective regions or deliver precision time more efficiently and cost effectively to indoor digital applications that need it. These activities underscore investments being made by Iridium and business partners today, which will drive our growth over the next decade and support adoption of our mission critical services by a broader set of industry end users. So we continue to be enthusiastic about the new Iridium products hitting the market as well as the new partnerships we're adding to our ecosystem. They support our long term growth objectives and guidance for generating $1,000,000,000 in service revenue by 2,030. Before I turn the call over to Tom for a review of our financials, I want to note that this will be Tom's last earnings report at Iridium in light of his upcoming retirement at year end.

Speaker 2

He is turning the CFO reins over to Vince O'Neil, who many of you already know. Vince, by the way, is also on hand with us today as part of this transition. We're fortunate and I have to say I'm very happy that Tom will be staying on the Board to continue to provide his experience and financial wisdom that have helped to drive our success over the last 14 years. So Tom?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone. I'll get started by summarizing our key financial metrics for the quarter and providing some color on the trends we're seeing in our business lines. Then I'll recap the 2024 guidance we updated this morning and close with a review of our liquidity position and capital structure. Iridium continued to execute well in the 3rd quarter, generating total revenue of $212,800,000 up 8% from the prior year's quarter. The improvement reflects ongoing growth in our commercial business lines and strength in engineering and support revenue.

Speaker 3

Operational EBITDA hit a record $124,400,000 in the 3rd quarter with the majority of this growth driven by expansion in service revenue. On the commercial side of our business, service revenue was up 6% this quarter to $133,300,000 with the increase reflecting ongoing momentum in IoT as well as new growth in hosted payload and other data services, primarily as a result of the Sotelis acquisition. Commercial voice and data revenue rose 3% from last year's comparable quarter to $57,700,000 The increase was driven by subscriber growth as demand for Iridium's push to talk services remained healthy. In commercial IoT, we continue to see good demand for personal satellite communications as well as our traditional industrial services. Revenue rose 14% from the prior year quarter to $43,700,000 in part reflecting the 2 year contract we signed earlier this year with a large fast growing partner.

Speaker 3

As discussed previously, this contract has the effect of materially increasing revenue from this customer in 2024 compared to 2023. You'll notice that net subscriber additions in IoT are down from last year's 3rd quarter. This decrease is due to a change that the same personal communications customer made as they simplified their available subscription plan. As expected, this resulted in increased cancellations this quarter of very low ARPU subscribers. We expect this trend to continue for the next few quarters as this conversion unfolds, but to fully abate by the end of 2025.

Speaker 3

Let me be clear, this process will have no effect on IoT revenues in 2024 and 2025 because our revenues from this customer are contractual and not driven by subscriber levers. Further, contractual revenues for this customer in 2025 will increase materially from 2024. We expect 2026 subscriber growth trends from this customer to return to levels experienced over the last couple of years as their customers avail themselves of a more robust product portfolio. Accordingly, we expect our 2026 revenues from this customer to further increase from 2025. We also expect this process to have a favorable impact on ARPUs over this period.

Speaker 3

Commercial broadband held up well as it transitions to a safety and companion service. We reported $15,500,000 in revenue during the quarter. In all, we added 70,000 net new commercial subscribers during the quarter, and commercial IoT subscribers continue to account for about 80% of billable subscribers. Hosting and other data services revenue was $16,400,000 this quarter, up 9% from last year's comparable quarter. The increase was primarily due to new revenue from Iridium PNT, the time and location business we acquired through the Satellis transaction in April.

Speaker 3

We see a tremendous revenue opportunity with broader availability of Iridium's alternative position, navigation and timing service and believe this service will generate over $100,000,000 in annual service revenue by 2,030. In the 3rd quarter, an increase in Iridium's PNT revenue helped to offset lower hosting revenue recognition, something we've discussed previously, which is entirely related to the extended useful life of our satellites. While the extension of the useful life has no bearing on cash flow, it does impact the time over which we recognize revenues from associated fixed price posting contracts. Government service revenue was also fractionally higher in the 3rd quarter at $26,500,000 reflecting a step up in revenue under our EMSS contract with the U. S.

Speaker 3

Government on September 15. As of this date, the annual bill rate under this 7 year contract rose to $107,000,000 from $106,000,000 previously. Subscriber equipment was up 9% in the Q3 to $22,200,000 I would note that this growth represents a stark turnaround from the year over year decline posted in the first half of twenty twenty four and is reflective of more normalized demand in the channel following 2 years of heightened inventory buildup by customers, which began to be drawn down in the second half of twenty twenty three. As such, comparisons in the first half of twenty twenty four were negative, whereas comparisons in the second half will be positive. With the volatility of supply chain constraints now behind us, we believe buying activity will return to more typical levels.

Speaker 3

Based upon feedback from our partners, we expect an acceleration of year over year growth in the Q4 from what we experienced in the Q3. Engineering and support revenue was $30,700,000 in the 3rd quarter as compared to $25,200,000 in the prior year period. The 22% increase reflects our growing activity with the U. S. Government and increasing scope of work with the Space Development Agency.

Speaker 3

Based upon our results through the Q3, we are updating our full year guidance for service revenue to growth of approximately 5%. We now expect operational EBITDA of between $465,000,000 $470,000,000 for the full year. Moving to our capital position. As of September 30, Iridium had a cash and cash equivalents balance of 159 point $6,000,000 Iridium's growing cash flow has been a source of liquidity and continues to support our Board's confidence in quarterly dividend payments and an active share repurchase program. With the Board's latest $500,000,000 authorization in September, our Board has now authorized a total of $1,500,000,000 in buybacks since the program started in early 2021.

Speaker 3

Iridium paid a 3rd quarter dividend of $0.14 per common share on September 30 and expects to return approximately $65,000,000 of cash to shareholders in 2024 through dividends. In the Q3, Iridium retired approximately 4,700,000 shares of common stock at an average price of $27.48 This was the most shares we purchased during a quarter in our history and represented a reduction of about 4% of our outstanding shares. This activity, along with our new authorization, leaves Iridium with an outstanding balance of $552,000,000 under our Board approved repurchase program as of September 30, 2024. We continue to believe that Iridium's equity offers a compelling investment opportunity. Between our dividend program, which started in 2023, and the commencement of our share repurchases in 2021, Iridium has already returned more than $1,000,000,000 to shareholders.

Speaker 3

As of September 30, Iridium's term loan balance was $1,800,000,000 You'll recall that we increased the balance on our term loan in July and relaxed our guidance for net leverage to support additional capacity for share repurchases. We ended the quarter with net leverage of approximately 3.5x of EBITDA and expect net leverage to remain below 4x of EBITDA through 2026. We continue to plan for Iridium's net leverage to fall below 2x of EBITDA by the end of 2,030. The rate at which we expect Iridium to naturally delever makes us comfortable with this long term guide, notwithstanding the projected uptick in leverage in the near term. Capital expenditures in the 3rd quarter were $18,600,000 We expect capital expenditures to be approximately $70,000,000 in 2024 as we invest in new product development initiatives like Iridium NTN Direct.

Speaker 3

Turning to our pro form a free cash flow. If we use the midpoint of our 2024 EBITDA guidance and back off $88,000,000 in net interest pro form a for our current debt structure, approximately $69,000,000 in CapEx for this year, dollars 5,000,000 in cash taxes and $6,000,000 in working capital, inclusive of the appropriate hosted payload adjustment, we're projecting pro form a free cash flow of approximately $300,000,000 for 2024. These metrics would represent a conversion rate of EBITDA to free cash flow of 64% in 2024 and a yield of about 8.9%. A more detailed description of these cash flow metrics, along with the reconciliation to GAAP measures, is available in a supplemental presentation under Events in our Investor Relations website. Before I conclude my remarks, I'd like to acknowledge my plan to retire at the end of this year.

Speaker 3

Serving as Iridium's CFO over the past 14 years has been the highlight of my 45 year career. It's brought immense professional satisfaction, been the source of tremendous camaraderie and friendships and provided more than just a few challenges. Happily, the challenges were surmounted to make Iridium the company it is today. I'd especially like to thank Matt for being a wonderful role model, visionary friend and partner and give credit to the immensely talented and committed Iridium team that has allowed us to achieve great success. Iridium has been second home to me and provided countless memories and experiences that I'll never forget.

Speaker 3

For that, thank you. While I'll be with the company through the end of the year as CFO, I'm flattered that the Board has asked me to continue my service as a member of the Board. I want to acknowledge Vince O'Neil, who is with us on the call today, and he will take the reins as CFO to lead the company. Vince and I have worked together for a decade, and I'm fortunate to have had his talents to help guide the many decisions we've made on funding, investment and capital spending. From our work with the export credit funding and the successful transition to our current capital structure, Vince has been a close competent and integral to Iridium's financial success.

Speaker 3

He's done a masterful job directing the scores of budgeting and forecasting plans that have allowed us to comfortably begin to return capital to shareholders. Welcome, Vince. Thanks, Tom. I really appreciate those warm comments, and I'm honored to be Iridium's next CFO and that Matt and

Speaker 4

the Board have given me this opportunity. I'm really excited to get going, and I believe that the future for Iridium is full of opportunities. I think that over the last few years, I've met most of you, but for those of you who are less familiar with my background, I've worked with Tom and Matt now for 10 years, and I feel very confident that I'll be able to build upon the financial success and strong track record that they've been able to deliver. I'm fortunate to have been active in supporting Tom in both crafting and designing our financing strategy along with our share repurchase activities, among other things, for the last number of years. Part of the benefit of having a deep history with Matt, our Board and our many business partners is that we see eye to eye on Iridium's bright future and the many opportunities for continued growth as we look through the 2nd part of the decade.

Speaker 4

With Tom's retirement, I assume the CFO responsibilities with a strong knowledge and a detailed understanding of this company, the satellite industry and established relationships to ensure an ongoing seamless transition. Finally, it would be remiss of me not to publicly acknowledge Tom's great financial leadership and direction during my tenure here at Iridium. I'll miss him, but I do take solace from knowing that as a Board member, he'll be very close at hand. I look forward to getting out, making more introductions and hearing more from our investors soon. Thanks, Tom.

Speaker 3

I really can't say enough about Vince and our finance team. I know that Vince will serve the company and shareholders' interest well as we make this transition to the New Year. With that, I'll now turn the call back to the operator for Q and A.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question comes from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thanks. Good morning, everybody.

Speaker 3

Hey, Rick. Hey, Rick.

Speaker 5

Hey, and Tom, congrats on the retirement news, but keeping on the Board, we've known each other, gosh, almost 20 years between Iridium and Centennial. Vince, wish you well as we work together in the future.

Speaker 3

Thanks Rick.

Speaker 5

Thanks Rick. A couple of quick ones. First, obviously, you raised the low end of the OIBDA guidance. The beat was pretty significant in the quarter. Talk to us about kind of how you looked at what you did in the quarter versus what you're looking at for the year with just 1 quarter left?

Speaker 5

And how is the spending trends on direct to device?

Speaker 3

We continue to invest in DRESS device. You see it most notably in CapEx, but you also see it in R and D, Rick. I would say it's going according to our plan.

Speaker 2

I don't know, Matt, if you would Well, I mean, it's moved faster than anything I think we've ever done here at Iridium. I mean, a thing where we pivoted about this time last year and we'll deliver, I think, a service within 2 years is pretty exceptional given that this is a kind of an end to end rearchitecture of some of our systems and everything. And so moving fast, obviously, the getting into Release 2019 was a really big deal. I was really thinking that was probably going to be in Release 2020, which we would have had to kind of go pre standard with some of the services, but now we'll be able to have chipsets be ready about the time that we're looking to introduce that services and that's going to bode well for our commercial discussions as well. But yes, I think this year has kind of turned out as we expected it.

Speaker 2

Clearly, the equipment is kind of doing exactly what we thought would be done. I think Tom mentioned that. It was we told you it looked weird to be down, but it's certainly going to look quite different going forward and strong other parts of our business really across the board.

Speaker 5

Okay. Second question is on service revenues. You've narrowed it down to say about 5% now on service revenue growth. But Matt, I thought I heard you say something in the opening comments about strong quarter revenue and sub adds and maybe a high end of guidance. What were you alluding to there?

Speaker 2

No, I separated those things. I said we had a strong quarter in the 3rd quarter with revenue subscribers and that allowed us to as we look into the Q4 to be able to raise the guidance to the midpoint of the guidance. He's referring to EBITDA guidance. Yes.

Speaker 6

Got you.

Speaker 5

Okay. Okay. All right, cool. And then appreciate the color on the IoT trends and the customer changing subs, but not much revenue impact. But probably the biggest one I want to have you guys elaborate on the call here is top question we get obviously is competition.

Speaker 5

You touched on it a little bit here. But as people may be not familiar with satellites or spectrum or Iridium's position, can you help us just understand the competition from StarLink or other direct to device type solutions on your different businesses, the legacy voice and data, the IoT, the broadband, the government? Because there's definitely a lot of people we talk to that don't understand the uniqueness of what Iridium brings, but maybe just elaborate a little more on that for us.

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, we've really built our business over the last 25 years on being a truly global supplier of highly reliable voice and data services. And that isn't really changing with the current expectations of direct to device, which are going to be regional solutions coming over the coming years here that will support terrestrial service in 6 or 7 countries perhaps and expand the cellular footprint, which is somewhere a little less than 15% probably by some percentage points, but it really doesn't change that. It's currently not viewed as a global service and one that will be coming kind of in a number of different ways. I mean, you could see it really in the last couple of weeks as Hurricane Helene and Milton hit, even as those services were some texting and SOS services might have been turned on.

Speaker 2

We saw 800% to 1600% increase in our services. And I think that that will continue. But the people who buy our services again are looking for a capability that works anywhere in the world seamlessly. Our IoT customers, for example, are not looking to kind of have a technology that works in one country but not in another country. So we really do expect that the fact that we've evolved this partner base of many hundreds of partners who've embedded our technology deeply into their service and now are going to be able to use standard based solutions as well from us.

Speaker 2

That's going to continue to drive our growth and why we feel confident that our IoT and other businesses will continue to be strong and we can support the kind of growth rates we're talking over the next 6 or 7 years, even if there's some other services that may fill in around the edges or really expand the market I think in some ways. But we're positioning ourselves with our narrowband IoT service, our Iridium NTN Direct as being the glue really that serves all those devices over the whole world. So I think we'll complement some of those new technologies coming forward. You could see us in a smartphone or a watch along with those technologies where they might provide more functionality in a couple of countries, but people will want to use our technology because it will work in the oceans. It will work in markets that will never have those capabilities.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks guys. And again, Tom, congrats and enjoy the next phase.

Speaker 3

Thanks Rick. Thanks Rick.

Operator

Our next question comes from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you very much. Good morning and congrats, Tom and Vince and all the best for the future. Matt, perhaps just following up on that last comments there, and I think you alluded to this a little bit. I think on the conference circuit, you'd been talking perhaps about returning to your run rate growth rates in 2025.

Speaker 7

I know it's only October, but any kind of thoughts around the drivers for next year? You've obviously won some new contracts here. It'd be great to get more color on how the new SDA award flows in over time. And then just a couple of questions on ARPU. If you could just elaborate on what's going on with broadband ARPU and voice ARPU, that would be great.

Speaker 2

Okay. Well, I mean, I don't think it's time to give precise guidance for 2020 5. We'll do that in February, but we've kind of given a directional guidance for what we think will be next year and we still feel very good about that. Certainly, the comparables on certain things like equipment and other things will be much more favorable to us next year than they are this year because we've kind of normalized on equipment, we believe, and we believe that will continue. And then adding additional contracts to, say, engineering support revenues makes that continues to be sort of at record levels for that as well.

Speaker 2

And really beyond that, we still see strong demand going into next year for really across our business portfolio from voice and data with push to talk to our IoT services where we've had a record year of new products introduced by our partners, which we all think will hit next year. You heard about the new products we've introduced this year like Certus, GMDSS. We have the Certus aviation product happening next year. We have our new IoT transceivers. All those give us confidence that next year will be kind of a normal growth year, if you will, across a lot of different fronts.

Speaker 2

In terms of ARPU, broadband ARPU is kind of down a little bit, I think, year over year, but that's really as it's been evolving as we expected to a companion service. And said with these new terminals coming this year that have it all in them, I think we're going to be the preferred companion solution for all solutions, including Starlink and Kuiper if it comes in and OneWeb and everyone else. I think they'll be putting an L band Certus terminal next to those to support service when it rains and ports and markets where they're not allowed to be turned on and many other places. And I think that'll continue well in the future. And then Voice and data.

Speaker 2

Yes, voice and data.

Speaker 3

I would characterize voice and data's firm, Simon.

Speaker 2

Yes. Yes.

Speaker 7

Okay. Great. And just one last one. I think you called out the Sotelis helping hosted payload. Can you give us a little bit more color on what the contribution was?

Speaker 2

Well, I mean, specifically, it's going to be in that line. We're calling that out specifically. But obviously, we are integrating their revenues into our revenues this year. Previously, we had been a kind of a wholesale supplier of a signal to them and sort of generated revenues only that way. Now with the with them being part of our company, we're now really a retail provider to markets around the world and we'll be providing, which is a higher revenue level and you'll see that reflected in the revenues that come through that line going forward.

Speaker 3

What I would say, Simon, is what we said about Sotelis is we got sort of $5,000,000 out of that in 2023, and we've said we see that as $100,000,000 in 2,030. If you look at hosted payload and other that line, that segment, the action in that line is going to be relative to P and T, right? And so you're going to see growth on a progression from 5 to 100, and you should look for significant growth there in the years ahead. Posted payload is contractual, that's not moving. So all the actions would be PMC.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Edison Yu with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking our questions and congrats to Tom and Vince going forward.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Edison.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 6

So just first question as a follow-up to the last one. On the ARPU, we noticed that the broadband ARPU actually improved a bit sequentially. Is that a good kind of run rate now for 4Q?

Speaker 3

That's probably seasonality, right? So we're that's there's more activity in Northern Hemisphere. So I wouldn't model it up sequentially into the Q4.

Speaker 6

Okay. Got you. And then on the I believe there's the new aviation service product should be ramping up relatively soon. Any updates on how that might contribute, the time lapse contribution going forward?

Speaker 2

Well, it will be good ARPUs from it when it hits the market because commercial aircraft typically are good producers as it sends flight safety data back and forth between air traffic controllers and the cockpit as well as other important information. Going through trials right now for final certification. Several suppliers of antennas, those are kind of the product is being finalized, if you will, or completed with customers mostly this quarter. And I think you're going to see it start to get on various aircraft next year. Like anything, it will be slower to start out because it takes some time.

Speaker 2

But I think it's going to be again the preferred solution for aviation safety services down the road. Just given its size, given the fact that it's truly global and serves even the poles, it's smaller than other solutions and it's going to be a very reliable solution. But it's also going to be on rotorcraft and some general aviation and other aircraft going forward as well.

Speaker 6

Understood. And just last one, wanted to check on the comments made about the IoT customer. I think you had said that it it will grow in 2025 and 2026. Just want to confirm then and any sense on sort of the magnitude?

Speaker 3

So the 25 is contractual, so we know that. The 26 is an expectation given the significant increases to their product portfolio. We've said that we've seen net adds in respect to this customer going back to where they were in the past couple of years. And so based on that, we see 26% up again from 25%. But 25% is known.

Speaker 3

It's contractual, and you'll see that reflected in our guidance when we unveil it for next year.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Next question comes from Walter Piecyk with LifeShed. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thanks, Tom. You spent some time talking about this customer. So obviously this is a material customer in IoT in terms of helping to give color on net adds versus revenue. But you also said that there is going to be the words you were used were up materially in 2025. So if that's a large customer, if you're actually nodding it on your earnings call, your guide I think for 2024 in IoT was low teens, you look to be tracking more towards high teens at least for 2024.

Speaker 8

So if that's up materially, is that implying that there's an opportunity to accelerate growth further in IoT in subsequent years?

Speaker 3

No. Our guide for this year was mid teens and it's looking like we'll beat that. That guide was unveiled early this year and it's looking like we'll beat it where I think we're 19% through the Q3. Materially means it's going to be up materially from what it is in 2024. That's what that means.

Speaker 2

For that specific customer. For that specific customer. We have a broad IoT portfolio of customers and partners, and obviously, this bodes well for our continued growth in that sector. But I wasn't really trying to describe the whole category. Understood.

Speaker 3

Right. I mean, just I would not model it wide of 2019 that we put up year to date, if that's your question.

Speaker 8

That was my question. And is it just to try and go at it again, maybe not 2019, but just to get a sense of IoT. Is this just a customer comment where you're trying to get more color on net adds? Or are you trying to make a broader comment about the health of the IoT business?

Speaker 2

Well, we're not so health of our IoT business is strong and hasn't changed. I think given the fact that the net adds were down this quarter, we thought it would be good to provide a little more color on why they were down. Activations across the board are still very strong. We just had some deactivations from a specific customer for a specific reason, low ARPU customers due to them changing their plans with their customers in a way that we've kind of designed and worked with them to as they transitioned their business. And it's quite positive.

Speaker 2

It looks kind of unusual given the net adds sort of are lower, but as we said, it has no economic consequence really to our bottom line because overall we have contractual revenues and they're stepping up over time.

Speaker 3

Right. And I think we have something like a 30 percent CAGR in personal communications over the last 5 years. So the health of that business is pretty

Speaker 2

observable. And we're all going

Speaker 6

to add to that

Speaker 2

as we move into narrowband IoT in 'twenty six and 'twenty seven. So I think that, that will even expand kind of the usage base. So you're going to see ARPU go up a little bit. But as we narrowband IoT, I think we'll probably add lower ARPU customers in their regard and maybe even drive subscribers on that. Got

Speaker 8

it. And then on the hosted payload, just to go back to that, the business that you're getting that's layering on there now, I assume is recurring revenue business and that again given your $100,000,000 target is going to continue to grow sequentially effectively, right? So if you look at if I just looked at the Q1 when you have the accounting change and where you're at now, it basically implies an incremental $10,000,000 right of revenue relative to I guess the 5 run rates. That's kind of reflective of the growth rate to get you to the $100,000,000 is what I'm thinking. But just to be clear, just want to verify that Satellis revenue that's layering on top of hosted payload line is just going to continue to build from there.

Speaker 8

There should not be lumpiness other than upward lumpiness in that incremental revenue that Sotelis is going to be adding to that line?

Speaker 3

I would say generally speaking that's right. Yes.

Speaker 8

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Next question comes from Hamed Khorsand with BWS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning. So the first question I have was this latest GMDS contract that you announced. Is that incremental as being new services or is that purely replacing the old one? And does the new contract actually use more of your services? Or is it just the same one, but it's paying you more for the service?

Speaker 2

So are you talking about GMDSS or are you talking about our FDA contract with GDMS, which are 2 different acronyms, Hamed?

Speaker 9

The GDMS, sorry.

Speaker 2

Okay. That's General Dynamics Mission Systems. So yes, the new contract with the Space Development Agency that really they are prime on and we are providing a lot of the technology and operation support as we build FDA's new ground network and we're going to operate their satellite systems for them out of a couple of new operation centers that are part of that as well as a lot of international ground stations. That the new contract added to that, they are delivering their network and previously had planned to roll out their network in a set of what they call tranches, which they had numbered. The ground system though is kind of been consolidated now going forward where they're not going to they don't really plan to introduce it in tranches.

Speaker 2

They've kind of consolidated the evolution of that into sort of one contract now called the Ground Management Integration contract, of which now, as I said, our part seems to have grown to about $400,000,000 of work so far, which is like $260,000,000 left to go over the coming years. But we continue as we support this really important customer. And again, I reiterate, we did this for strategic reasons because of our experience, because our visibility into the customer for the future to help us stay current, to give my incredible team even more fun things to do and to evolve our strategic relationship with the customer. All that kind of bodes well for other opportunities as they continue to invest in this network in the future. So we don't expect this to be the last time we add to this area here, at least that's not our plan.

Speaker 9

Okay. And my other question was on the net additions in IoT. Is there any obvious changes as far as the end market customer is concerned? Or is it still the same relatively?

Speaker 2

Well, I think given that the technologies are improving, we're introducing our new IoT technology, Certus IoT technology, and that's been adopted in things like the Garmin Messenger Plus and I expect you'll see it in other products going forward. I think we're kind of expanding the use cases of personal communication devices. I mean, if you can send pictures and voice snippets in addition to other things, I think that's very positive. In addition, you're going to see, I think, our new IoT transceivers and other devices that want to send more data around. We have some really interesting use cases underway from a number of our partners as they seek to be the first to use our new IoT transceiver coming out this quarter.

Speaker 2

So I think it's expanding the use cases more than anything else.

Speaker 9

And did you see that this past quarter?

Speaker 2

Well, really products are just now being introduced. So it hasn't really hit our financials at all yet. That's going forward.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Amit.

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Quilty with Quilty Space. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Thanks, Tom. Matt, speaking of new products, I know you had talked earlier this year about the on the aviation side safety service certification and you've got a number of partners that are releasing products. Does it look like those will happen sort of in parallel or we facing a situation where you may have certification but not products or vice versa in the market? And again, you're still on track to get that certification this year and what sort of growth potential does that hold for you next year?

Speaker 2

Still on track to get certification this year to get FAA approval. That's followed. So in fact, there's even been some of our partners are starting to talk about the TSO approval of their terminals already and are listing those. You'll see advertisements for those in aviation magazines as they talk about their new era of services. Those are some real big players.

Speaker 2

I don't want to call them out because I don't know exactly what state we're in in terms of their announcements. Some of them have told us that they have pipelines of customers sort of waiting for it and imagine that those will start rolling out and being installed in 2025. It's going to grow. I can't say exactly what the rate it will grow at this point, but it will all be positive and upward anyway from where we are today, where everything so far has really been using our legacy safety products, which are narrowband and built around our older technology. These will all provide higher speed services and expanded capabilities onto the flight decks of different aircraft.

Speaker 2

And I do know that there are still other products that are coming, say, later in 2025 that are not even the ones I'm talking about. So it's good to finally see the aviation spigot turned on. How fast it's going to move, I don't have a lot of visibility, frankly, into how many will be. The good news is those will be good ARPU customers.

Speaker 10

Got you. And is that entirely aftermarket or is there a line fit potential for those product lines?

Speaker 2

Both. I think it's going to be initially aftermarket and but it will move into line fit. There's definitely efforts underway to do that. I just don't know when those start line fit.

Speaker 10

Got you. And so like aviation, it's been 5 years since the last Iridium NEXT satellite was launched and you're still pushing GMDSS in terms of finally moving towards the certification and getting the products out that have the higher data rates. Can you talk about where you see that market going in terms of there's 2 dynamics. 1 is you've got an upgraded product and really one competitor for that, but you also have the dynamic of LEO or STARLINK, which is penetrating new vessels that historically have never had communications. And what are you doing to try to position yourself as the backup in that market?

Speaker 2

Yes. So and you're speaking specifically maritime here. Our we have been a companion service for quite a while. I mean, L band is more robust than Ka and Ku band, particularly in bad weather. It has kind of regulatory advantages in certain markets where Ku and Ka band terminals are have to be turned off often in ports, for example, or near ports and other places.

Speaker 2

So there's been a long tradition of having an L band backup. And you're right, it traditionally has just been 2 players of us, Inmarsat and ourselves. I'd say we have a bit of a competitive advantage now in that Inmarsat being part of ViaSat really is a competitor to most of those other Ka and Ku band. And so most of the distribution channels really don't want to would rather put us on next to a terminal. So we're seeing ourselves being sold with new StarLink terminals.

Speaker 2

I expect when Typer hits the market, we'll be the preferred solution for Kyper terminals, definitely for OneWeb terminals as they move out in the market as we are today with many other Ku and Ka band. So I expect now that we have upgraded those terminals, that companion terminal to also support the safety functions of the ship, gmDSS, LRT, SSAS, that it's going to be even more compelling given that you don't need a separate terminal for those regulatory safety functions, you can be a backup and provide the safety functions as well. So we think that solidifies our leading market position as the terminal you have to have on the ship and the one you want to back up your broadband systems. And I think that's going to continue for a long time.

Speaker 10

Got you. And final question for Tom, back to the quarterly results here. I'm just a little confused because the in the maritime and the service, your subs were down by 100 sequentially and we were sort of conditioned to believe that the subs that were dropping were moving from a very high ARPU, Iridium only to StarLink and yet, you lost subs and the ARPU went up relative to expectations. Was there any one time items in there or anything unusual in the quarter?

Speaker 3

I think there's 2 different drivers. The sequential increase, as I said, is seasonality. The leaking of the subs, I mean, the channel is I would characterize it as not stable. Currently, I mean, there's a lot of partners that are dealing with the new reality. And so I think that's affected our net add kind of profile that which should improve over time.

Speaker 3

It's going to be a question of how long it takes for normalcy to return to that market.

Speaker 10

Great. Thanks, Tom. We'll miss you kind of. And Ben, welcome.

Speaker 3

Thanks. Thanks.

Speaker 2

I like that qualification there. Thank

Speaker 3

you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Louis DiPalma with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Good morning. And Tom and Vince, congratulations to you both. Tom, it was a pleasure to work with you over the past 13 years. And I guess we're going to continue to work together as you are staying on the Board to help navigate the company through the next generation constellation, which is great. My question echoes some of the earlier questions as it relates to the broadband segment as the results there were better than expected during the quarter.

Speaker 11

And I think earlier this year, Matt and Tom, you conveyed an expectation for broadband to return to growth in 2025. And I was wondering if this quarter's results and the dynamics that have taken place reinforce that view?

Speaker 2

Well, we'll see what 25 holds. We can talk more about that. It's certainly encouraging to see where we are with that. You said it was better than expected. It was better than you expected.

Speaker 2

It wasn't better than what I expected. I know that a lot of you assume the worst that somehow STARLINK was as it's sort of been not rumored, but others have kind of worried that it was sort of a it has really hurt the Ku and K band providers as they've kind of disrupted that. We said that we felt our position was pretty strong and intact as a companion to that service. But there was a transition around a small part of our business in which we were the primary user and we would take a few quarters to get through that. And I think that's been ongoing.

Speaker 2

You see that it's the effect hasn't been that dramatic to us, and we feel pretty good about how we've positioned our business for the long term in that area to continue to be an important player. So it's kind of unfolding the way we thought, and we never said that broadband was going to be a big part of our growth to 2,030. In fact, we didn't even list it as one of the growth areas. It's but it's a solid part of our business. It's important one, which we think we have a competitive advantage, being L band and being GMDAS certified and all that sort of thing.

Speaker 2

So it's going to contribute to our results going forward.

Speaker 11

Great. And one final one, has business development activity picked up for Suttellus since you made the acquisition, especially with all of the geopolitical conflicts and the very active like spoofing of Suttellus?

Speaker 2

Yes. It's been recognized kind of internationally now as the only really solution that can fix some serious problems that are underway right now. The other solutions out there are kind of terrestrial and at risk as well. So as I said, it's been tested. It's been proven in a number of places, and the activities are kind of through the roof.

Speaker 2

We're adding additional business development resources because of the opportunities. We've expanded its footprint. They had only been selling it really pretty much in North America and mainly because they were concerned about paying us for turning the signal on before they had paying customers in Europe and Asia. And we just realized we can turn that signal on right now. So that's just expanded the footprint of where it can be sold.

Speaker 2

But there's been advertisements for it all over the world, whether it's in around Ukraine, the Red Sea, Myanmar, there's a number of places, if you look at the map, are being actively jammed and spoofed all over the world. And there's articles in the newspapers about this problem. And everyone is now looking for solutions. And I think one of our big challenges is just getting the word out that we're there and ready. So we need some more people.

Speaker 2

We have more partners now talking about this to in industries like data centers and wireless systems and electrical grid installations, but it's ready now and cost effective, in many cases much more cost effective even than getting sort of precision time for digital services and buildings. So we feel really bullish about the potential for it. And yes, the activity has grown dramatically over the last 6 months.

Speaker 11

Sounds great. Thanks, Matt, and thanks, everyone.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Louie.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the call back to management for any final remarks.

Speaker 2

Well, I will say it's been about 60 of these, Tom, that we've been through together, that we've all been together, the analysts on the call. So certainly going to miss you on this call. I'm not going to let you get too far away, and you're still going to be my boss on the Board, so I have to be nice to you. But I think you've all heard Vince's lilting Irish brogue here and you'll hear more of it going forward and we look forward to talking soon and certainly as we get on our call in February here. So thanks all for being part of this.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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Key Takeaways

  • Iridium delivered 8% year-over-year revenue growth to $212.8 million and a record $124.4 million operational EBITDA in Q3, raising its full-year EBITDA guidance to $465–$470 million.
  • Iridium returned $146 million to shareholders in Q3 via dividends and a record repurchase of 4.7 million shares (4% of outstanding), with an additional $500 million buyback authorization approved.
  • Progress on new products and strategic initiatives includes Project Stardust (Iridium NTN Direct) slated for early 2026, integration into 3GPP Release 19 for direct-to-device and NB-IoT services, and the launch of Garmin’s inReach Messenger Plus using Iridium Certus IMT.
  • The acquisition and rapid integration of Satelles positions Iridium as the market leader in alternate PNT, demonstrated by successful anti-jamming tests in Norway and strong demand in Europe and Asia.
  • Expanded government work through an additional $400 million Space Development Agency contract (with $260 million remaining) and a stepped-up EMSS U.S. government bill rate to $107 million annually.
A.I. generated. May contain errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Iridium Communications Q3 2024
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