Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
October 23, 2024

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Valera's Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. All lines are in a listen only mode. Following the company's presentation, we will open the call for your questions.

Operator

Please note that we are recording this event. This event is also being broadcast live via webcast and can be accessed through Valera's website. At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Rodrigo Martinez, Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead, Ricardo.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and thank you for joining the call. With us is our President and CEO, Enrique Beltranena our Airline Executive Vice President, Holger Blankenstein and our Chief Financial Officer, Jaime Pos. They will be discussing the company's Q3 2024 results. Afterward, we will move on to your questions. Please note that this call is for investors and analysts only.

Speaker 1

Before we begin, please remember that this call may include forward looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward looking statements are subject to several factors that could cause the company's results to differ materially from expectations, as described in the company's filings with the United States SEC and Mexico's CMV. These statements speak only as of the date they are made and Volaris undertakes no obligation to update or modify any forward looking statements. As in our earnings press release, our numbers are in U. S.

Speaker 1

Dollars compared to the Q3 of 2023, unless otherwise noted. And with that, I will turn the call over to Henrik.

Speaker 2

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Volaris' 3rd quarter results demonstrate our business model's resilience and commitment to execution. I'm proud to report that Volaris has delivered strong operational and financial results again, marking this our 4th consecutive quarter of net income while providing great ultra low cost carrier service value to our customers. We have strategically streamlined the company during this period, effectively reducing operations by about a quarter of our fleet during our busiest summer season due to the Pratt and Whitney engine inspections. Our team also effectively mitigated external disruptions like weather related events without a material impact.

Speaker 2

Despite these challenges, we managed to contain our reduction in ASMs to only 11% during the last 12 months compared to the 2023 levels. Also, we achieved total operating revenue of $3,200,000,000 in this period, matching the full year operating revenues of 2023, an impressive accomplishment. We're moving forward to the other side of this engine inspections period, paving the way for sustained shareholder value creation, our most important long term objective. As part of these processes, we are emerging as the preferred airline in our core markets. We offer offers, fly attractive schedules broadly and reliably and provide relevant ancillaries that add value to our customers.

Speaker 2

We also deliver on day of departures itineraries and provide digital solution to our customers and with a proven safety and security record. As the engine inspections began 12 months ago, I am today pleased to highlight key achievements from these last 12 months. First, reductions in RPMs were consistently lower than those in ASMs, indicating a well calibrated approach to capacity management. These allowed us to sustain similar low factor levels and protect the demand elasticity of our bus switching passengers, ultimately improving our TRAS. 2nd, we further unbundled our fares, keeping base fares at 2019 levels while increasing our ancillary revenues as a percentage of total operating revenues from 34% in 2019 to 51% over the past 12 months.

Speaker 2

This is our business model working to perfection and we are committed to continuing to couple low and stable fares with honest value added services. 3rd, our net promoter score reached 34%, reflecting improving customer recovery and satisfaction. Significant reduction in mishandled bags, better on time performance, reduced complaints and materially lowering voluntary denied boardings underscore this improvement. 4th, our network redesign effectively addressed the challenges of grounded aircraft and enabled an 11% increase in ASMs in the U. S.

Speaker 2

Transborder market versus 2023. We achieved a remarkable system schedule completion rate of 98.5% while controlling our costs despite the aging fleet and grounded aircraft due to engine inspections. A crucial element of this strategy was sustaining ambassador productivity and labor costs. And 5th, we implemented a fleet mitigation plan that did not increase debt leverage, ensuring we could pursue future capacity additions without jeopardizing market pricing and future aircraft leasing costs. Our financial performance over the last 12 months speaks for itself.

Speaker 2

Our profitability has significantly improved with an EBIT margin of 14%, an EBITDA margin of 34% and a net margin of 6%. We achieved these results by ensuring that the vast proportion of our network remains profitable, generating strong unit revenues and attracting retail customers who value our low prices. This contrasts us favorably with the United States ultra low cost carrier environment and highlights our ability to execute transformative changes swiftly while maintaining cost control. Notably, around half of our routes compete exclusively against the BOSS market, allowing us to continue bringing in new flyers without creating excessive capacity growth in key ultra low cost carrier markets. While our operating cost structure remains over control, with most costs being variable, we have experienced reduced operating leverage due to aircraft groundings and increased maintenance and redelivery expenses due to our fleet's aging.

Speaker 2

Both effects are temporary and will not impose structural cost pressures. Our CASM ex fuel was $0.052 during the last 12 months, keeping us among the 3 lowest publicly listed operators worldwide. We believe Volaris is not experiencing a cost convergence with full service carriers that could structurally reduce our margins going forward. On the balance sheet, our net debt to EBITDAR ratio improved from 3.5 times in the Q3 of 2023 to 2.7 times in the Q3 of 2024, one of the lowest levels in Volaris' history. This was despite the significant investments we had to make to implement the mitigation plan for the engine inspections we outlined a year ago.

Speaker 2

The total cash including short term investments stands at $833,000,000 an improvement of $66,000,000 from the Q3 of 2023. On our Q3 of 2023 call a year ago, despite the engine crisis, Volaris' management made a commitment to our passengers, ambassadors and investors, which I quote, we will do our best to respond to the challenge and undertake a mitigation plan to manage the variables we could control. Regarding our aircraft on ground, this challenge has all improved as Pratt and Whitney and Volaris gain clarity on how to address the situation, and we continue to coordinate closely with them. The induction slots are within the agreed forecast. Spare parts and materials have been planned as we induct engines into the inspection processes and we have planned turnaround times together with Pratt based on low, medium and high maintenance needs.

Speaker 2

All in all, we are seeing an important improvement in turnaround times. However, the situation remains evolving. I acknowledge that the market may have valid and reasonable capacity concerns for next year if AAGES currently under inspection return earlier than expected. However, I want to assure you that we will not deploy excess capacity beyond what emerging markets typically grow and can absorb. We have structural flexibility that allows us to prioritize profitability over market share.

Speaker 2

This includes options such as reducing spare engines, minimizing Pratt and Whitney's emergence in leased engines and accelerating the return of aircraft among other measures. We have a plan. Today, I can affirm that we haven't just overcome challenges. We have evolved as a company. We strongly feel that our reliable performance during crisis along with evidence that we have been disciplined in the execution of our plan makes us a good asset and separates us from our peers.

Speaker 2

As you know, this is consistent with what you know about Volaris, a seasoned and stable management team. Volaris' position as an ultra low cost carrier in Mexico is distinct from that of ultra low cost carriers in the United States. As the largest airline in Mexico by passenger volume, we enjoy a robust domestic market share and cost leadership over legacy carriers. Moreover, Mexico's unique ability to convert bus passengers and recurring travelers has driven growth in the country's emerging air travel market in the last 15 years. We continue to see plenty of runway for this secular trend.

Speaker 2

Finally, considering the uncertainty surrounding recent constitutional reforms, I would like to highlight that Mexico's new President, Claudia Shengul, has pledged to protect investors' right. She took office on October 1, becoming the country's 1st female leader. Let me quote her, I say this very clear, be assured that investments of national and foreign shareholders will be safe in our country. With that, I will now turn the call over to Holger to discuss commercial and operating performance for the quarter.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Enrique, and good morning, everyone. Demand remained strong across our markets during the high season in the summer, underscored by a 90% domestic load factor, up 1.7 percentage points and an 83.4% international load factor, up 1 percentage point year over year and 5 percentage points sequentially as our Mexico U. S. Additional capacity matured. Our total load factor was a strong 87.4%, a 1 percentage point increase.

Speaker 3

These load factors supported our record 3rd quarter TRASM of $0.0938 a 12% increase. Our average load factor of $53 up 9% and ancillaries per packs at $54 up 10%, remained robust and consistent with the healthy demand we have observed during the year. ASMs contracted 14%, in line with our guidance, and we had a remarkable on time performance within 15 minutes of 84.3%, with on time departures rising almost 7 percentage points over our performance in the Q3 of last year. Even with the schedule impacts of Pratt and Whitney engines, we have diligently managed accommodations, leading to a much lower volume of customer complaints.

Speaker 4

This is highlighted by an increased Net Promoter Score currently at 37%. During the quarter, we continue to capitalize on strong market trends in the domestic and transborder segments. In our domestic markets, we continue to see growing demand from first time and repeat flyers, driving consistent strength in loads, fares and ancillary revenues. Turning to our international market. Approximately 40% of our total ASMs are currently in this market.

Speaker 4

Our plan is to shift more capacity to the U. S.-Mexico transborder market, taking full advantage of Mexico's return to CAT 1 status. We have announced new routes and inaugurated several, including Guadalajara to Tulum Guadalajara to San Jose, Costa Rica Miami to El Salvador Tijuana to Las Vegas. In line with our midterm growth strategy, we have launched our 1st southbound leisure routes from Oakland to Cabo and McAllen to Cancun. This marks our first step in expanding our offerings as we leverage our widening cost advantage over North American, UHTCs and legacy airlines.

Speaker 4

Additionally, we are increasing capacity from our core domestic and international stations and connecting capacity to Monterey. In Central America and South America, we have reduced the number of aircraft allocated to these markets from 9 a year ago to 6 due to the our lack of aircraft availability, contributing to more normalized competitive trends in those markets.

Speaker 3

Over the summer, we saw a pickup in demand response and strong margins in our transborder market. Beyond the commercial upside, we expect the greater concentration of our network in the United States to provide a critical financial advantage. We expect the structurally higher TRASM, increased U. S. Dollar collections and longer sectors to provide a long term tailwind to our margin mix.

Speaker 3

On the ancillary side, non ticket revenue as a percentage of total revenue remains strong and stable at 50%. We continue to innovate and enhance our non air ancillaries, focusing on customization and promotion strategies. For example, we are consolidating our most relevant offerings, our vClub membership program, vPass monthly subscription, annual pass and index co branded credit card into a single affinity portfolio. This offering leverages the penetration of our credit card with 1,000,000 active cardholders and our V2A program, which has also surpassed 1,000,000 active members. Turning to market alliances.

Speaker 3

Volaris now participates in 2 international co chairs. Our co chair with Frontier Airlines has ramped up effectively, and we anticipate it will have an increasing contribution to our full year EBIT. Additionally, we launched a new codeshare with Iberia Airlines in June, providing a small yet valuable opportunity to connect their passengers to the Mexican market without adding complexity to our business model. Turning to our outlook for the rest of the year. Booking trends continue to show strength throughout the fall and the holiday high season.

Speaker 3

We expect total revenue for the full year 2024 to be close to 2023, even with a double digit reduction in capacity. I want to elaborate on Enrique's comment about focusing on profitable markets and how Volaris stands out from ultra low cost carriers in the United States. Over the past decade, we have grown rapidly to become Mexico's leading airline in transported passengers. With our well known brand and established new network, we use our leadership to drive profitability. Domestically, we can keep fares stable and attract more customers, especially those switching from buses and price sensitive leisure passengers.

Speaker 3

Internationally, we now have a balanced network between Mexico and the U. S. With return of FAA Category 1 status a year ago, we now can allocate capacity based on profitability in any of our markets. In the past, being in Category 2 limited our growth in the United States and led to an oversupply in the domestic market. In the U.

Speaker 3

S. Cross border market, where we expect travel to grow in the next decade due to near shoring, we could offer low prices that United States competitors can't match. We also serve strong VFR markets, benefiting from large Hispanic communities that know the Volaris brand. As we drive preference and loyalty among these communities, we expect to realize benefits from higher margin, repeat and international flying. Overall, the capacity outlook for 2025 is expected to be in the lowtomidteens.

Speaker 3

However, we expect capacity to return to 2023 levels by the second half of twenty twenty five. We will remain prudent and rational as we introduce capacity back into the market. Now I will turn the call over to Jaime to walk through our Q3 financial results. Thank you, Volker. Our Q3 results reflect a strong demand complemented by strict cost control and more favorable jet fuel prices.

Speaker 4

This discipline resulted in our 4th consecutive quarter of expanding margins and positive bottom line despite the challenges faced during the year. Compared to the same period last year, our Q3 2024 results were as follows: total operating revenues were $813,000,000 just a 4% decrease despite a 14% reduction in capacity. Our net results were also affected by the 11% depreciation of the Mexican peso against the U. S. Dollar.

Speaker 4

While this trend benefits our unit cost, it is a handwind to our unit revenue negatively impacting our margins. Given that approximately 60% of our operating expenses are denominated in U. S. Dollars, we have targeted 50% of our collections to be in dollars to mitigate our exposure to this dynamic. Additionally, around 90% of our cash balance is held in U.

Speaker 4

S. Dollars. Back to the P and L, the total CASM decreased 1% to $0.0792 Our average economic fuel cost decreased by 17 percent to $2.64 per gallon, while CASM ex fuel came in at $0.0539 better than guidance for a 10% increase despite a strong headwind from the reduction in ASMs. This underscores our focus on cost control and give us a competitive advantage in the industry. We reinforce this advantage by implementing aggressive cost management, avoiding expensive wet leases and maintaining an efficient cost structure with approximately 70% of our costs being variable and semi fixed.

Speaker 4

In fact, compared to our United States peers, we anticipate that our cost gap will continue to widen over time in the cross border market. Our financial differentiation is clear and growing. Despite the AOGs and related cost complexities that began last September, we have maintained one of the lowest unit costs in the world. With these strong quarter results, we expect to be at the top quartile for operating margins on a rolling 12 month basis. Returning to results, in the quarter, we only booked sale and leaseback gains of $2,200,000 in the other operating income line related to the delivery of 1 A320neo.

Speaker 4

Note that aircraft grounding compensation from Pratt and Whitney is also included in this line. EBIT totaled $126,000,000 an increase of over 100% compared to $39,000,000 in the Q3 of 2023 for an EBIT margin of 15.5 percent, up 11 percentage points. EBITDAR was $315,000,000 a 52% increase and the highest quarterly level in the history of Volaris. The EBITDAR margin reached 38.7%, a 14 percentage point improvement. As a reminder, both EBIT and EBITDAR include the Plata and Whitney compensation as well as expenses from leases of the entire fleet, included the grounded aircraft associated with the engine inspection.

Speaker 4

Net income was CAD 37,000,000 compared to a net loss of $39,000,000 in the Q3 of 2023, translating to earnings per ADS of $0.32 Cash flow provided by operating activities in the Q3 was 233,000,000 cash outflows used in investing and financing activities were CAD149,000,000 CAD54,000,000 respectively. Meanwhile, our Q3 CapEx, excluded finance pre delivery payments, totaled $54,000,000 These investments include the acquisition of spare engines, which are crucial for maintaining business continuity and mitigating disruption to our core operations. Volaris ended the quarter with a total liquidity position of $830,000,000 representing 26% of the last 12 months total operating revenues. As of September 30, our net debt to EBITDA ratio lowered to 2.7 times from 3.5 times at the end of the Q3 of 2023 and 2.9 times at the end of the last quarter. I want to emphasize that we have been consistently deleveraging for the past 7 quarters, reflecting our commitment to profitability and disciplined approach to capital allocation.

Speaker 4

Moreover, we expect to continue deleveraging throughout the Q4, finishing 2024 around 2.5 times. Equally important, we have no significant near or medium term debt maturities. Moving briefly to our P and L for the 1st 9 months of 2024 compared to the same period of 2023, total operating revenues were CAD 2,300,000,000 dollars a 2% decrease despite flying 15% fewer $0.80 over that time. CASM was $0.0802 just a 3% increase as average economic fuel cost fell by 9% to $2.83 per gallon. CASM ex fuel was $0.0530 11% higher despite the strong headwind from the reduction in ASMs.

Speaker 4

EBIT was $296,000,000 up from $58,000,000 for the 1st 9 months of 2023 and EBIT margin was 12.8%, up 10 percentage points. EBITDA totaled CAD810 1,000,000 a 50 percent increase with an EBITDA margin of 35.1%, up 12 percentage points. Net income was an $81,000,000 profit versus $104,000,000 loss for the year ago period, translating into earnings per ADS of 0 point 7 $0 This was our best result in the 1st 9 months since 2021. As of September 30, our fleet consisted of 137 aircraft, up from 125 a year ago with an average age of 6.3 years. Due to the engine inspections, we had an average of 34 aircraft on ground during the Q3.

Speaker 4

We received 1 A320neo during the quarter for a total of 6 new aircraft year to date from our order book with Airbus. Earlier in the year, we also received 2 A320ceos on their straight operating leases as part of our mitigation plan for the engine inspections. Including these returns, extensions and the return of productive aircraft, we target an average of low to mid teens annual capacity growth for the next few years. In line with our expectations, our CapEx excluding finance pre delivery payments totaled CAD234,000,000 for the 1st 10 months of 2024. As a final note on capital allocation, this quarter we expanded one of our pre delivery payment facilities.

Speaker 4

Volaris now has financed PDPs that cover our expected deliveries through 2027. Before concluding my remarks, I will address our updated guidance. While our overall outlook for the year remains unchanged, we are pleased to once again raise our full year EBITDA margin as we continue to exceed expectation and expect to benefit from more favorable jet fuel prices for the remainder of the year. For the Q4 2024, we are expecting an ASM reduction of approximately 7% year over year, TRASM of around 0 $0.96 CASM ex fuel of approximately 0 $0.055 and an EBITDA margin of around 39%. Our 4th quarter 2024 outlook assumes an average foreign exchange rate of MXN20.3 to MXN20.5 per U.

Speaker 4

S. Dollar and an average U. S. Gulf Coast jet fuel price of MXN2.2 to MXN2.3 per gallon. Based on our 4th quarter guidance, we now anticipate a full year ASM reduction of approximately 13% year over year compared to our previous guidance of 14% decline.

Speaker 4

Additionally, we are raising our full year EBITDA margin forecast to around 36%, up from our prior range of 32% to 34%. Lastly, we continue to project CapEx net of finance pre delivery payments to be approximately $400,000,000 On a final note, we took advantage of the declining jet fuel prices in September by securing tactical hedges for the high season months of November 2024 through January 2025. We have hedged approximately 30% of our projected fuel consumption for this period using Asian coal options linked to Gulf Coast jet fuel with an average strike price of $2.25 per gallon. To be clear, if the spot Gulf Coast jet fuel goes above $2.25 per gallon, we get the benefit of the hedge, but if it goes down, we capital the full downside net of the premium paid in September. Now I will turn the call back over to Enrique for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jaime. Before we begin Q and A, I want to call attention to Volaris' integrated annual report for 2023, which we recently published on our investor website. Last year, we navigated numerous headwinds, including the government mandated slot reductions at Mexico City International Airport, the prolonged category second downgrade and the onset of the GTF engine inspection. We financially overcame these challenges and maintain our commitments to our ambassadors, passengers, communities, investors and the environment meeting the best corporate governance practices. While I will not discuss our corporate sustainability strategy in-depth on this call, I would like to note that multiple stakeholders have recognized our platform on sustainable practices in business and aviation and how this effort has uniquely created value.

Speaker 2

I invite you to review our integrated annual report to learn more about Volaris' initiatives for corporate development, climate protection and long term sustainability. Thank you very much for listening. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

Certainly. Our first question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI. Your question please.

Speaker 5

Hi, thank you. Good morning. Can you help us think about the shape of capacity into the Q1 and the first half of twenty twenty five? You've given us a preliminary view on the year, but I wonder if you could speak to how you expect, maybe to start the year from growth perspective in the Q1?

Speaker 3

Thanks for your question. So we are finalizing our operating plan, but we're looking at growth in the mid teens for the first half of 2025 approximately. And that's still a little bit under discussion depending on the situation at Pratt and Whitney and Airbus.

Speaker 5

Okay. So that would be a reasonable assumption for the Q1?

Speaker 3

Yes, that would be a reasonable assumption.

Speaker 6

Yes.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then with respect to the new administration, I know it's only been a few weeks here, but any early view on how the relationship may be changing? Any new policies you care to highlight?

Speaker 7

Duane, this is Enrique Beltranena. To be honest with you, we have met recently the new authorities and we expect to a certain extent some continuity on the aviation policies as the same party is basically heading the government. We have established a close communication and interactions with the new authority and we have conveyed the need to continue promoting the healthy development of the sector. We have secured the level playing field among all industry participants. We have strengthened and modernized regulators.

Speaker 7

We think we can facilitate access to competitive inputs. And finally, I consolidate the Mexico City Metropolitan Airport System among other priorities. Those are the topics that we have on our agenda with the conversations that we have with the recent government, and this is what we expect.

Speaker 5

Okay. I know it's early, so appreciate the thoughts. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Ben Des from JPMorgan. Your question please.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning guys and thanks for taking my question. Can you help us think about the recent FX depreciation in Mexico, the ability that the company might have to pass through into fares? And then, Hicco, one follow-up on your comments about the new administration. You mentioned about the Mexico City Hub. Any views if the slots restrictions could change anytime soon?

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 9

Hello, Guilherme. This is Jaime. I will answer further the question on FX and then I pass it over to Enrique for the political questions. On FX, Guilherme, as you notice, as we increase the network to the U. S.

Speaker 9

In the cross market, we are now on a 41% collections in U. S. Dollars. Our goal is to increase that to 50%. And the addition, we invest 90% of our cash balance in U.

Speaker 9

S. Dollars. We have a natural hedge based on the company since our cost expense is 60%. So we are basically naturally hedging the FX impact on our business.

Speaker 4

I pass it over to Henrique.

Speaker 7

This is Henrique Beltranena. Speaking about the reactions of the new government in terms of the metropolitan airports, what we saw yesterday in a meeting that we had with this Undersecretary of Transportation is that the general in charge of the agency regulation said that there are a lot of pressures in terms of changing the slots and the number of slots in Mexico City and that they don't think it's going to happen. And the second thing that he stated is that they expect to continue doing what they have done during the last 6 years in terms of number of slots and the way they are managing the system, except for the discussion of the new regulation that has been discussed and proposed that it's probably going to be approved in the following month or month and a half.

Speaker 8

Okay. Very clear about. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Stephen Trent from Citi. Your question please.

Speaker 10

Good morning gentlemen and thanks very much for taking my question. Sort of a follow-up first off Jaime, I think you said 50% of collections and 90% of cash balances are in U. S. Dollars. As we think about what those numbers might look like long term, do you think they stay around that level or maybe they possibly tilt further towards the dollar?

Speaker 9

Hello, Steve. Today, we are 41% collection in U. S. Dollars. We aim to increase that to 50% next year based on the network that we are applying to grow into the international market.

Speaker 9

And we keep to maintain the way we invest the money always above 90% in U. S. Dollars.

Speaker 10

Perfect. I hadn't heard you correctly. I appreciate the clarification. And just a quick follow-up question. I definitely appreciate half of the routes you serve are bus routes.

Speaker 10

Do you think with the cross border growth, some of the future growth could come from international bus routes in places that you serve like McAllen, for example?

Speaker 3

Stephen, this is Holger. We currently already operate many routes that are niche routes that operate into the U. S. I think about Guadalajara, Reno, for example, which is a route that is a BFR niche route that passengers typically used the bus previously and now fly with us. And we continue to see opportunities in our BFR core in the U.

Speaker 3

S. As we move along. We have started 2 routes in the southbound leisure segments where American tourists go to the Mexican beach destinations and that is a major opportunity going forward as we grow the company.

Speaker 10

Great. Thanks very much, Vince.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Thomas Fitzgerald from TD Cowen. Your question please.

Speaker 11

Thanks very much. Can you help us think about the other operating income line in 2025? Do you think that will be lower than it is in 2024?

Speaker 9

Hi, this is Jaime, Thomas. It will be a little lower because we expect this year, as you know, we are around 34 aircrafts average doing the full year down to the engine inspections. That number should go down to 30, 31. So that line, we will have a similar percentage down trade next year.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thanks. That's really helpful. And then would you mind just giving some color on how bookings and fares are looking for early 2025 in some of the U. S.

Speaker 11

And the Mexico routes that you've been discussing? Thanks again for the time.

Speaker 3

So this is Holger. We're looking at pretty solid bookings into the Q4 as we approach the high season in November December. Typically, we see a strong performance in the cross border market in our VFR core markets. So we see healthy fair environment healthy demand environment in those markets. And we believe that this trend is going to continue into the Q1 2025.

Speaker 3

The additional capacity that we added into the transborder market earlier in the year is maturing well. We saw good results in the summer season and that capacity is coming to full maturity in the Q4 2024.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rogerio Araujo from Bank of America. Your question please.

Speaker 11

Hi guys, thanks for the opportunity and congratulations on the results. I have a couple here. The first one is what were the main surprises to Volaris as the company has guided a margin last quarter, but delivered higher margin than previously thought. And do you judge those items as sustainable going forward? This is the first one.

Speaker 11

And the second, if you could give us an update if there was any change in terms of timing expectations for Brett and Whitney engine recalls? Anything you could share here would be useful. Thank you very much.

Speaker 9

Hi, this is Jaime. On your first answer, I think the surprises was the fuel price and better traction that we budgeted. And can you repeat the second question, please?

Speaker 11

Sure. No worries. Yes, thank you very much. And do you see any changes on Brett and Whitney engine recall expected timing? If all the information you provided last quarter, if all those remain or if there was any change on how you're seeing the timing for the engine recalls?

Speaker 7

Rogerio, this is Quique Betramena. We have seen good progress and the overall wind to wind time including inductions and turnaround at the shops has been a significant reduction, I would say, from 3 50 days previously to now to closer than to 300 days. Currently, we have, I would say, a strong pipeline with multiple engines undergoing various stages of maintenance, several more set to enter the process before year end also. And all these inductions are confirmed with materials and spare parts ready for repairs. As a result, the outlook for engine deliveries over the next 6 months is looking very solid and reliable and very, very comparable with what capacity will be stating for the 1st semester of next year once we finish our operating plan and our budget process towards 2020 to 5.

Speaker 11

Perfect. Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of James Spieces from Morgan Stanley. Your question please.

Speaker 12

Yes. Thank you. So I have a question on the profitability of international your international routes versus domestic. If I understand you correctly, as capacity returns, you will be prioritizing international routes. And assuming the peso stays around the current level, like on average, how is the profitability of those international routes versus domestic currently?

Speaker 12

And also, could you please clarify, I didn't get the hedging, for how long have you hedged 30% of your fuel needs? Thank you.

Speaker 3

So on the route profitability, domestic versus international, we typically don't break that down. But we can tell you that growth is going to be rather balanced next year between domestic and international.

Speaker 12

All right.

Speaker 9

This is Jaime. On the hedge questions, what we hedge is was 30% of the consumptions of the months of November, December of this year and January next year with Asian calls with a strike price of $2.25

Speaker 12

Okay, perfect. So basically next 3 months. And okay, perfect. At the same price, right? 2.25?

Speaker 4

Correct.

Speaker 7

If I may, this is Enrique Beltranena again. I acknowledge very well your concern about deploying capacity in the future and combining capacity returning from Pratt and Whitney and additional capacity from Airbus new deliveries. But I want to reiterate that we will make decisions based on profitability, not market share, and we will remain prudent and rational as we reintroduce the capacity to the market.

Speaker 12

Perfect. Very clear. And if I may, just one follow-up. You mentioned that you expect to continue with the mix of international versus domestic as you redeploy capacity. But then how will you raise your revenue mix from 41% to 50%?

Speaker 12

That's what I'm struggling to square.

Speaker 3

So it's going to be due

Speaker 7

to a

Speaker 3

maturing of the routes that we added to this year, the capacity that we added this year to the U. S. Market, to the transporter market and additional frequencies and routes and destinations that we're going to open next year into the U. S. Also one important point to mention is that the ancillaries on the international markets are typically somewhat higher than domestic and that also drives an improved TRASM performance.

Speaker 12

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Michael Linenberg from Deutsche Bank. Your question please.

Speaker 6

Yes. Hey, question to Jaime. I know you answered the question for 2025 as it relates to the other operating line. 4th quarter, should we assume roughly 34 airplanes on the ground?

Speaker 9

Yes. I think for the Q4, it's better than the 3rd. We expect to have around 32 aircrafts average on the ground. As you know, Michael, that line is basically flat compensation. Year to date, we have only booked sale and lease bookings for $18,000,000

Speaker 6

Okay. And then sort of related to that, I know last year, a lot of times the Q4 is usually a time when we see airlines decide to extend leases. And so in some cases, we do get a credit in the redelivery line. I know we had that last year in Q4. Is there going to be something impacting the Q4 this year with respect to the redelivery line?

Speaker 6

Could that actually be a credit rather or a reversal, I guess, is maybe the way I'm saying it?

Speaker 9

No, Michael. We did all of the extensions of 2025 in the Q4 of last year and the 1st Q of this year. So when you compare 23 to 24, you are going to see that notice. So the variable lease and engine line will be on the historical level without any one off.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. And then just one quick last one. Just to Holger, on some of these new markets where you're targeting leisure customers and yet when I look at the cities, there still may actually be surprisingly a VFR component there. Is it possible that some of these new southbound markets to split rather than being 100% leisure, could it be something more like 85%, 15% your thoughts on that? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Michael, absolutely. Obviously, we're going to target markets where we already have a presence and there is going to be a mix of customer profiles. Absolutely.

Speaker 6

Very good. Thank you.

Operator

Excuse me. This concludes today's question and answer session. I would now like to invite Mr. Beltamino to proceed with his closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 7

Thank you very much, operator, and thank you very much to everybody listening to this call. As always, I want to thank you to our family of ambassadors, obviously to our Board of Directors and you, the investors, bankers, lessors and suppliers for your commitment and support. I really look forward to addressing you all again for our full year earnings in the short period. Thank you very much and I wish you a Merry, Merry Christmas.

Operator

This concludes the Valeris conference

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Key Takeaways

  • Despite Pratt & Whitney engine inspections that reduced the fleet by about 25% during summer, Volaris limited its ASM decline to just 11% year-over-year and sustained a 98.5% system schedule completion rate without raising debt leverage.
  • Volaris reported its fourth consecutive profitable quarter, achieving a 14% EBIT margin, 34% EBITDA margin and 6% net margin over the past 12 months, and raised full-year EBITDA margin guidance to approximately 36%.
  • By keeping base fares at 2019 levels and unbundling services, Volaris increased ancillary revenues from 34% of total operating revenue in 2019 to 51% over the last 12 months, highlighting the strength of its ultra-low-cost model.
  • The U.S. transborder market saw an 11% ASM increase versus 2023, record Q3 TRASM of $0.0938 (up 12%), and strong load factors (90% domestic, 83.4% international), as Volaris leverages full FAA Category 1 status to shift further capacity to higher-yield routes.
  • Volaris’ net debt-to-EBITDAR ratio improved from 3.5x to 2.7x year-over-year, liquidity rose to $833 million (26% of trailing revenues), and management expects to deleverage to ~2.5x by year-end with no significant near-term maturities.
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Earnings Conference Call
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación Q3 2024
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