American Homes 4 Rent Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 30, 2024

There are 20 speakers on the call.

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the AMH Third Quarter 20 24 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce you to your host, Nicholas Frome, Director of Investor Relations.

Operator

Thank you, Nick. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Good morning. Thank you for joining us for our Q3 2024 earnings conference call. With me today are David Singelin, Chief Executive Officer Brian Smith, Chief Operating Officer and Chris Lau, Chief Financial Officer. Please be advised that this call may include forward looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical facts included in this conference call are forward looking statements that are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in these statements.

Speaker 1

These risks and other factors that could adversely affect our business and future results are described in our press releases and in our filings with the SEC. All forward looking statements speak only as of today, October 30, 2024. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. A reconciliation of GAAP to non GAAP financial measures is included in our earnings press release and supplemental information package. As a note, our operating and financial results, including GAAP and non GAAP measures, are fully detailed in our earnings release and supplemental information package.

Speaker 1

You can find these documents as well as SEC reports and the audio webcast replay of this conference call on our website at www.amh.com. With that, I will turn the call over to our CEO, David Sanquin.

Speaker 2

Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. This is a special day for me. Today is my last earnings call before passing the baton to Brian Smith, the next steward of our great brand. I hired Brian more than 12 years ago. He has worked alongside me to build this company, many of those as our Chief Operating Officer.

Speaker 2

Reflecting on the last 12 years, we accomplished more than I ever imagined. Together with Wayne Hughes, we seized a once in a lifetime opportunity to pioneer the professionally managed single family rental landscape. Since then, we've changed perceptions of housing in the U. S. And raised the bar on industry standards for service and quality.

Speaker 2

To control our own destiny, expand our portfolio through every economic cycle and to do our part in addressing America's housing shortage, We build new homes in desired locations across our markets. We invested in our operations. We leveraged technology. We looked around corners, and most importantly, we focused on people. We assembled a talented team, including a strong leadership bench that has worked together for the past decade and is ready to lead this company into the next chapter of its journey.

Speaker 2

Today, our 60,000 homes provide thousands of households with access to high quality homes at a meaningful discount to the current cost of home ownership. Our residents appreciate the convenience, flexibility and ease of living we provide. Housing is a fundamental American need and single family rental homes have emerged as an important part of the American housing landscape and solution. Building AMH with Wayne and with your support is one of my proudest career accomplishments. I leave AMH with gratitude, pride, and fond memories that I will cherish forever.

Speaker 2

Thank you all for being a part of my journey. AMH is in capable hands and I'm excited to see the future successes, not only at AMH, but for the SFR industry as a whole. And with that, I will now turn the call over to Brian.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Dave. I remember joining your team over 12 years ago when AMH was only an idea. Since then, we've accomplished many great things, including pioneering an industry. But what stands out to me is the way that you have led the company by being focused on the people, both our team members and our residents. AMH would not be where it is today without you.

Speaker 3

Thank you for your outstanding leadership and friendship. I look forward to carrying on the AMH legacy. Looking ahead, the future is bright for AMH. Long term business fundamentals are strong. And in the midst of a national housing shortage, we continue to do our part by contributing new housing stock through our development program, working to meet the growing demand for high quality single family rentals.

Speaker 3

More importantly, we remain focused on creating the best resident experience in the industry. AMH Homes are well located in high growth markets, are known for their superior quality and are supported by the best services platform in the industry. Turning to the near term environment. This year is quickly coming to a close and we consider 2024 to be a job well done. Operating results in the first half of the year were better than originally anticipated as the team worked hard to capture additional upside during the busy leasing season.

Speaker 3

In the back half of the year, managing expenses has been key. Our success in controlling costs during the heavy move out season is reflected in our results and the guidance revision highlighted in yesterday's earnings release. For the Q3, the teams delivered right on top of expectations with 4.4% revenue growth over the prior year. And on the expense front, another quarter of better than expected results was driven by the team's focus on controlling the controllables. This resulted in total same home operating expense growth of 2.6% over the prior year.

Speaker 3

All of this contributed to strong core NOI growth of 5.4 percent for the quarter and positive guidance revisions, which Chris will talk about in a moment. For the month of October, preliminary estimates screen well, with renewal rate growth increases of 5.4 percent continuing to anchor our rent growth activity. Occupancy and new lease rate growth are 95.2% and 2%, respectively. As we close out 2024, we continue to carry strong momentum, but also recognize that we are operating in an uncertain environment. Given the upcoming election and general economic conditions, pockets of near term supply in certain markets and temporary disruptions from a series of significant weather events.

Speaker 3

With that in mind, for the balance of the year, we will be focused on setting up the portfolio for success in 20 20 and plan to optimize revenue by prioritizing occupancy ahead of the holiday season. Moving to our growth programs. We are pleased to report that despite significant weather disruptions in the Southeast, our development program remains on track to deliver approximately 2,300 high quality detached single family homes with economic yields averaging in the high 5s for the year. And when excluding a reserve for CapEx, the nominal yield for these homes is closer to 6. As a reminder, our land pipeline of nearly 11,000 lots will continue to fuel our stable and predictable new construction growth channel for years to come.

Speaker 3

In addition, as outlined in yesterday's earnings release, we are excited to announce that we recently acquired a single family rental portfolio of nearly 1700 homes across 13 markets for a total purchase price of approximately $480,000,000 These well located, high quality, detached single family homes overlay well with our existing portfolio footprint. As Chris will discuss in more detail in a moment, we expect nominal NOI yields in the 6% area once these homes are stabilized on our platform. This represents an attractive and accretive investment that reflects our disciplined and responsible approach to growth as we continue to monitor the market for additional opportunities. The power of the AMH platform was on full display during this transaction. Our diversified footprint, best in class operating system and asset management program allow us to maximize the value of portfolios for AMH, while providing a seamless exit solution for sellers, a true win win scenario.

Speaker 3

In closing, the teams have done a great job executing our strategy in 2024 and we will be well prepared entering the New Year. With our CEO transition nearly complete, I'm excited to lead the business into the next chapter of the great AMH story. With that, I'll turn the call over to Chris.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Before I jump in, I want to share an additional congratulations and thank you to Dave. Dave, you truly helped pioneer an industry and positively change housing across America. And under your leadership, we've built AMH into the industry leader that we are today. Thank you, Dave, and I wish you all the best.

Speaker 4

Now turning back to the quarter, I'll cover 3 areas in my comments today. First, a review of our quarterly results, including a summary of our estimated financial impact of the recent series of hurricanes second, an update on our balance sheet and recent capital activity and third, I'll close with commentary on our further increased 2024 guidance and some additional thoughts around our recently acquired bulk portfolio. Starting off with our operating results, we delivered another strong quarter demonstrating the strength of the AMH platform and our ability to efficiently control costs during the heaviest move out season of the year. Simply put, our teams did a great job executing on our objective of controlling the controllable this quarter with net income attributable to common shareholders of $73,800,000 or $0.20 per diluted share, which included a $3,900,000 estimated total loss from Hurricanes Beryl, Debbie and Helene. And after quarter end, as we all know, Florida was further impacted by Hurricane Milton, which we preliminarily expect to result in another $3,000,000 to $4,000,000 of hurricane damages in the Q4.

Speaker 4

This hurricane season delivered an unprecedented series of consecutive storms and our teams did a fantastic job standing up to the test, working tirelessly to protect our residents and portfolio through our industry leading disaster preparedness and response programs. Through their hard work and a little bit of good fortune with some of the storm paths, our portfolio avoided catastrophic losses with our damages largely consisting of cleanup costs and repairs such as roofing shingles, landscaping, fencing and other minor items. Excluding our estimated hurricane loss during the Q3, we generated $0.44 of core FFO per share and unit representing 6.3% year over year growth and $0.38 of adjusted FFO per share and unit representing 8% year over year growth. On the investment front, for the Q3, our AIMAGE development program delivered a total of 7 53 homes to our wholly owned and joint venture portfolios. Specifically, for our wholly owned portfolio, we delivered 6.40 homes for a total investment cost of approximately $250,000,000 which was right in line with our expectations.

Speaker 4

Outside of development, we continue to actively monitor the one off acquisition markets with the majority of opportunities continuing to be outside of our disciplined buy box. With that in mind, we acquired just 16 properties during the quarter for approximately $5,500,000 And on the disposition side, we saw another active quarter selling 256 homes generating over $81,000,000 of net proceeds at an average economic disposition yield in the 3% creating a highly attractive capital recycling opportunity. Next, I'd like to turn to our balance sheet and recent capital activity. At the end of the quarter, our net debt including preferred shares to adjusted EBITDA was down to 5.0 times. Our $1,250,000,000 revolving credit facility was fully undrawn.

Speaker 4

We had approximately 3,000,000 shares outstanding on a forward basis that were settled after quarter end for approximately $110,000,000 and we had over $160,000,000 of cash available on the balance sheet. As a reminder, during the quarter, we repaid our 2014 SFR3 seconduritization using proceeds from our June bond offering, which unencumbered over 4,500 homes that can now be reviewed by our asset management and disposition teams. Next, I'll cover our updated 2024 guidance, which was increased again in yesterday's earnings press release. As we've talked about many times before, we've been thoughtfully and proactively investing into our platform and expenditure management programs for years. These investments are now paying off, enabling us to control the controllables and produce expense results better than our previous expectations.

Speaker 4

With that in mind, we've reduced the midpoint of our full year non property tax related expense growth expectations by 100 basis points to 4%. And on the topic of property taxes, we've now received most of our final assessed values and are happy to report modestly better than expected assessment outcomes in a number of states, including Florida, Georgia and Texas. And although most tax rates aren't published until the Q4, given our favorable assessment outcome, we reduced the midpoint of our full year property tax expectations by 100 basis points to 6%. Considering our improved outlook for both property taxes and controllable expenses, we have lowered the midpoint of our full year Same Home core operating expense growth expectations by 100 basis points to 5%. And in turn, we've increased the midpoints of our full year same home core NOI growth expectations to 5% and full year core FFO expectations to $1.77 per share, which now represents 6.6% year over year growth.

Speaker 4

Next, I'd like to share a few additional thoughts around the bulk portfolio we acquired after quarter end. As Brian mentioned, the portfolio consists of approximately 1700 properties located in 13 markets and was acquired for a total purchase price of roughly $480,000,000 that was funded through a combination of cash on the balance sheet and modest capacity from our credit facility. Additionally, the portfolio is highly synergistic with our existing footprint and includes over 1500 properties that are directly within the AMH buy box. These properties are currently being managed by 3rd party property managers and will be transitioned to the AMH platform over the next several months. Once on our platform, we expect to unlock the AMH value by bringing in place rents up to AMH standards and implementing our best in class expenditure controls.

Speaker 4

This process will likely carry into 2025 and once stabilized to AMH standards, we expect the portfolio to generate an NOI yield of approximately 6% and an economic yield in the high 5s after reserve for CapEx. And finally, with respect to the approximately 150 homes that did not meet our buy box, we expect to efficiently sell these properties through our disposition program over the next 12 months to 24 months and will likely recycle between $40,000,000 $50,000,000 of capital. And before we open the call to your questions, I'd like to leave everyone with one final thought. As we begin to close out 2024, it's important to recognize the incredible efforts of our team and the results they've achieved this year. As we hoped for, during the first half of this year, our teams did a fantastic job capturing the strength of leasing season, driving meaningful upside against our expectations.

Speaker 4

And as we transitioned into move out season in the back half of the year, our teams produced some of the best controllable expense results in AMH history, once again creating further upside compared to our expectations. All told, our current 2024 core FFO growth outlook of 6.6% now stands 240 basis points above our original guidance at the start of the year. No question, this year has exceeded our expectations. And for that, we say thank you to the team and we'll open the call to your questions. Operator?

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. We ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you have additional questions, you may re queue and time permitting, those questions will be addressed. One moment please while we poll for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Juan Sanbria with BMO. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning. Just hoping you could talk a little bit about the pricing dynamic for new customers. It seems like renewals are pretty steady, but you kind of talked about focusing on maintaining occupancy and setting yourself up for 'twenty five. So just curious your expectations for new leasing in the balance of the year and into 'twenty five and what the impact of supply is that you're facing any kind of early discounting that you're doing or you're seeing across your various markets? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Juan. This is Brian. We're really pleased with our spread results, through the 1st three quarters of the year remaining very strong into Q3. Demand is fantastic.

Speaker 3

There's the shortage of quality housing that everybody talks about. And what we saw was a little bit of some temporarily effective activity towards the end of Q3 as a result of some of the things that I talked about in prepared remarks, namely, the number of named storms. That reduced activity a little bit can be seen in a little bit of a moderation of new lease rate into October, which is typical of the season as well. But our team did a very good job of recalibrating our asking rates and we're optimistic that we're going to be able to pick up occupancy as we get through the balance of Q4. That will set us up really well for 2025.

Speaker 3

And for the balance of Q4, you asked what our expectations are from a new lease rate growth. And we're thinking somewhere in the low ones. It's still a little bit early. But couple that with the fact that renewals represent a much greater proportion of the leases and our expectations for the balance of the year remain strong, and in Q4 in the high 4s with low to mid 5s for the full year.

Speaker 5

Great. And just as a follow-up, could you give a little color on bad debt that ticked up as a percentage of revenue sequentially. So just curious on where we stand on cleaning up the remaining kind of post COVID bad debt issues, etcetera?

Speaker 4

Yes. Sure, Juan. Chris here. Look, I would say that collections have been tracking right on top of what we were expecting, with 3rd quarter bad debt running

Speaker 6

in the low

Speaker 4

ones, very much reflecting the typical correlation that we see with move out season that we started talking about last quarter. And then as we move into the 4th quarter, I'd expect bad debt to seasonally moderate down a touch, bringing full year into the 1% area, which is right on top of what we have contemplated in the guide.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks for taking the question and congratulations Dave on the transition. So thinking about what you just said about October and into the year end, I mean, thinking about the 1% new lease rate growth, I think you said 2% in October. I mean, how much of that would you attribute to the storms, clean up from the storms, all that versus just seasonality? And then I guess just thinking beyond 4Q, I mean, how do you think that accelerates into the beginning of the year?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thank you, Jamie. As we talked about, there are a number of different things that are kind of contributing to the current environment. The reality though is that there's just a ton of demand for our product, our well located, high quality homes, single family detached homes, and that's going to play out really nicely as we get into next year. The objective is to finish the year strong as we talked about with the expectation of accelerated activity that we see every January as we get into the spring leasing season.

Speaker 3

We're going to be prepared to really capture the momentum of that top line opportunity from day 1 going into next year. As you look into next year, there are a couple of things that we're starting to see. There were some estimates on market rent growth given by John Burns for our markets for 2025 in the 3% to 4% range. So we're expecting to capture some of that going into next year as well.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess thinking about the acquisition, you mentioned nominal yield of 6%, cash after CapEx high 5%. Can you just talk about the going in yields on the portfolio and where you think the areas are where you can get that number up, whether it's revenue optimization, economies of scale and R and M, adding it to your blanket insurance, just kind of what are the big levers here to hit your numbers?

Speaker 4

Yes, sure. Jamie, it's Chris here. I'd be happy to take that one. Look, on the topic in general, I would really start by saying that no question, this portfolio is a great transaction for us. But

Operator

just for

Speaker 4

a second, if I could zoom us out to the bigger picture, I think that this transaction is also a really great example of the broader consolidation opportunity at large that we've been talking about for some time now. And in particular, what we really love about these types of transactions is our ability to unlock value in these portfolios by consolidating them on to our platform, right. And to your point in terms of this one, if we want to use it as the example, look for starters, we paid approximately $280,000 per unit. That represents a very attractive entry point with in place cash flow yields right around 5% or so, given that the portfolio is currently being managed by a number of different third party property managers. However, once the portfolio is transferred to our platform and operations are optimized up to our standards and that's really across the board, right?

Speaker 4

It's optimization around the top line, collections and bad debt and then really overlaying our best in class expenditure controls. You mentioned insurance. I would also add in our expenditure management programs around controlling of the controllables, leveraging of our property management platform, etcetera, all of which translating into stabilized yields in the high 5% to 6% area once on our platform, which represents 75 basis points plus of yield creation because of the AMH platform. And I know Brian mentioned this briefly in prepared remarks, but I think it's worth underscoring. This transaction really creates a win, win, win all the way around, right.

Speaker 4

No question creating value for AMH and our shareholders, but also adding value to the residents of the portfolio through the quality of our AMH service programs and then providing, of course, a seamless exit solution for the seller of the portfolio as well.

Speaker 8

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Wolf with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 1

Thanks. It's Nick Joseph here with Eric and congratulations Dave. Given your October occupancy, but when you look at either your lease percentage or forward exposure, what does that tell you about where occupancy should go over the next few months? And how comfortable are you letting occupancy trough further from here just given the strong demand that you talked about?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Nick. This is Brian. We talked about a little bit of the affected activity due to a few different things at the end of Q3. October activity has picked up nicely though.

Speaker 3

So we're expecting to pick up some occupancy a little bit of occupancy over the last couple of months of the year. And then the objective is to have really nice momentum, leasing momentum going into 2025 and we seem to be on track with that.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thanks. And this is Eric. I guess given that there's only 2 months left in the year, could you just share your early thoughts on earning for next year or anything else that you think we should be considering when it comes to your growth potential? I think you mentioned John Burns Consulting is predicting like 3% to 4% rent growth.

Speaker 1

I don't know if you think that's a reasonable starting point, but just anything you kind of say about what you think about your growth potential for next year?

Speaker 4

Sure. Eric, Chris here. Brian started to touch on it, but look, the demand is there. The need for housing is there and our expectation is that activity is coming back strong as we come into the new year like it always does. And obviously, we'll have nice updates on that for you as we get into next year.

Speaker 4

In terms of the building blocks of what we know at this point is we're beginning to think about the top line. At this point, we know that earn in going into next year based on this year's activity, probably low 2s or so. Brian talked about the fact that latest 3rd party market estimates for rent growth, market rent growth next year is in the 3% to 4% area. And then loss to lease, it depends a little bit on the next couple of months of activity, low single digits or so. So, anyway, still early to be talking too quantitatively about 2025, but like we keep saying, the demand is there, the need for housing is there and we feel good about it.

Speaker 8

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 9

Hey, guys. Good morning out there and congrats to you, Dave, and also Brian again. I wanted to follow-up on the reduction in the OpEx guide, specifically the tax side of that. You mentioned better than expected property tax assessment outcomes from Florida, Georgia, Texas. I guess I'm curious if that outperformance was from millage rates or property assessed values flatlining?

Speaker 9

And any kind of early read for 2025? Curious if this is a tailwind that we can see continue into next year. Thanks.

Speaker 4

Good question, Haendel. Chris here. Just talking about our update so far, keep in mind, at this time of the year, we now have values back for the majority of the portfolio. But as I mentioned in prepared remarks, we still don't have much information on property tax rates yet. Those are generally available a little bit later into the Q4.

Speaker 4

But given the assessed value data that we have on hand at this point, like I said, we feel good about our reduced full year midpoint of 6%. To the second part of your question on 2025, I think you probably know what I'm going to say, in that it's a little bit early to be talking about specifics. So I'll tread lightly on this one, especially given that our property tax forecasting process really runs over the course of Q4 and into the beginning of next year. But look, as we've talked about many times, our general expectation is that we've been expecting our rate of property tax growth to continue cooling, given that home price appreciation growth has continued moderating since it peaked in, call it, 2022 or so. With that said, we know that we've actually already captured a bit more moderation this year than we were originally expecting.

Speaker 4

And we're also mindful that we have a couple of unknowns on the table for next year. For next year, we know that the 2022 Texas property tax reform that lowered rates a couple of years ago is expiring at the end of this calendar year. And we're watching very closely a couple of multi year revaluation states that have seen some pretty hot HPA over the last couple of years that will be resetting next year. But again, I would take that against the backdrop of a more broadly cooling HPA and property tax value environment. And like I said, we'll have a much better update for you next quarter after we get through our budgeting process.

Speaker 9

Appreciate the color, Chris. Thank you. One follow-up just on the portfolio purchase. I don't know if I missed it, but did you guys mention the timeline to which you expect to get to that 6% stabilized yields at end of next year? And then I guess I'm more curious broadly on the motivation, maybe who the seller is, if you could share, but also their motivation here.

Speaker 9

Was it just perhaps an opportunity given maybe lower rates and perhaps the ability to get maybe a better price? And just also the tone of conversation that you're having more broadly with other potential sellers, are you sensing that maybe there's a greater chance of likelihood of more similar type of activity, not just for you, but more broadly in this space into the next year? Thanks.

Speaker 4

Sure. Chris here again. I'll start and then Brian can chime in as well. Just from a timeline perspective, in prepared remarks, I characterized it as over the course of 2025. The way that we're expecting it to play out is it will take the next several months to get the 3rd party management relationships transitioned over to our platform.

Speaker 4

That will take us probably into the beginning of 'twenty five or so. And then at that point, we can start overlaying, our AMH, practices and begin to bring things up to our standards. Again, that does not happen overnight. But I think by the middle of 'twenty five or so, we should be in a pretty good spot. But we'll continue to keep you all updated over the next quarter or 2 as we really start to get into it.

Speaker 3

Haendel, this is Brian. The second part of your question regarding some seller specifics, I'd really out of respect for the transaction, don't want to get into too many specifics on their motivation. But I can tell you what we offered in the transaction. We've talked at length about our diversified footprint that makes us very flexible in looking at various parts of the United States and portfolios that come online. I think that was an advantage.

Speaker 3

The strength of our asset management platform was clearly valuable in the transaction. Our ability to effectively solve some of the sellers' issues, provide a seamless transaction. We have a lot of expertise in this space. We were able to quickly get in and get comfortable with the assets and get comfortable with the value lift that we would see on our platform. So it's just a really good transaction for us.

Speaker 3

Specifically to bulk opportunities that we're seeing in the marketplace, we have seen an uptick in activity of late. We reviewed a number of other portfolios over the past 3 or 4 months. And I think as expected, we're going to start seeing more of those come through. Keep in mind though that we're very specific and intentional on asset type, quality and location. Some of the ones that we've seen of late, checked some of the boxes, but not all.

Speaker 3

We're just really, really pleased with the one that we did close because it's one of the best we've seen in many, many years The best that we've seen in many, many years. So we're optimistic that we'll see other opportunities like that in the future. And it seems like that channel is beginning to open up.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 10

Yes, great. Thanks. I guess just going back to some of the comments, Brian, you made about the occupancy in the October trends. The 95.2 puts you about 100 basis points below kind of the Q4 last year. I guess with 1% pricing on new and let's call it low fives on renewals, how confident are you that 95.2 comes up materially?

Speaker 10

And I guess, would you expect the year over year decline in occupancy, say 4Q to 4Q to kind of match the decline you saw in 3Q to 3Q?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Steve. Before looking at the occupancy trends for Q4, we are confident that we've seen a nice change in activity in October. It's translating into really a strong close to that month. It's not over yet completely, but we're very pleased with that uptick coming out of kind of a post Labor Day September that had a lot of other things going on.

Speaker 3

We are confident that we'll be able to pick up some occupancy, most importantly, really good momentum as we exit the year. So I wouldn't expect to have a huge increase as we get into November December, but I would expect it to move positively and then have that momentum continue into 2025.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thanks. And then just going back on the transaction, I sort of recall comments, Dave saying, hey, we're pushing into the development program because we can build the homes that we really want customized in the way we want them, whether it's bigger doorways, better stairs, materials. And you could get stabilized yields on new projects around 6 and you're buying this portfolio in the low fives with ultimately the stabilization going to a 6. So just trying to understand the rationale of why not put that money just into more development assets that they're both good.

Speaker 10

The

Speaker 3

development program is that they're both good. The development program is fantastic for a number of reasons that we've talked about for a while. What it really does is it gives us a nice stable base that's predictable. We're able to use that as a foundation of our growth programs. And then we're set up to take advantage of other opportunities as they arise.

Speaker 3

In the case of this portfolio transaction, the asset quality is fantastic. It fits our buy box from just about every angle. We're very pleased with the quality of locations, quality of finishes, and it's going to be a really nice supplement to our growth program. So I would look forward to being able to execute well on both the development and on any fantastic opportunities like this if they arise. Hey,

Speaker 2

Steve, it's Dave. Let me just add one comment. And that is the investment philosophy has been consistently, the development is a consistent and predictable

Speaker 3

channel to grow.

Speaker 2

But the

Speaker 3

development is a consistent and

Speaker 2

predictable channel to grow. But acquisitions, whether from any of the channels, whether it's one offs from new homebuilders or in bulk are the supplemental way to grow. And you don't have the ability to throttle your development from time to time in any meaningful way. But incremental opportunities, especially as of a portfolio like this, which are really good, well located assets that are under managed in the hands of third party property managers is going to be a very, very good supplemental investment for us. So there's no change in investment philosophy.

Speaker 2

It's just that we have started to see, as Brian indicated, some of the investment opportunities on the bulk side.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Josh Dennerlein with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 4

Hey guys. Brian, you mentioned there were

Speaker 11

some other portfolios that you looked at in the past few months, but passed on. Were there any kind of common boxes that didn't get checked across the portfolio as you passed on or?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Josh. I think the general observation, that we have is that there was probably a higher proportion of townhomes and attached product than what we're comfortable with. Like I said, we're unique in that we have this diversified footprint and a robust asset management program. But we're pretty firm in our belief that single family detached homes can provide better long term returns.

Speaker 3

And in a couple of cases, they just had a higher too high of a proportion of attached product. Not to mention in a couple of cases, the location was a little bit outside of our investment box.

Speaker 11

And I guess when you think about like the other opportunities set out are there are most portfolios that you're going to like that are coming to market, do they have more townhomes, attached homes that were like developed? Or are there a lot of portfolios out there that have been kind of just aggregated one off?

Speaker 3

Yes. That's a very good observation, Josh. The portfolios that I'm referencing right now were pretty heavily weighted towards more recent build to rent and that seems to be the trend in that space. The scattered site portfolio like the one that we closed, there's a higher proportion of single family detached there. And we see a lot of opportunity in some of those assembled portfolios.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julien Boulin with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 12

Yes. Thank you for the question and all the best Dave. Brian, you talked about demand continuing to be strong, which sort of sets you up well going into next year. I guess, what specific sort of metrics or data points are you looking at that give you that confidence? And relatedly, one of the data points I think you've given in the past is sort of the stated incomes of incoming residents continuing to improve.

Speaker 12

How much of an indicator of demand is that? Is that showing you that sort of higher income households are coming into the portfolio and seeing better value in renting versus owning?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Julien. There's a couple of good questions in there. Let me start with some of the demand metrics that we're seeing. If you look at Q3, we had nearly a 1000000 new users come onto our website, come onto our platform.

Speaker 3

And we track very carefully what their behavior is when they're on that platform. We're seeing a lot of people using utilizing our unique search functions when they're setting up accounts and monitoring activity in available homes. We saw a huge uptick in that activity. So people are coming into the ecosystem. We're really pleased with that.

Speaker 3

Again, it's a testament to the quality of our assets and locations within the markets. When you start to talk about the profile of the incoming applicants, we're very pleased that incomes remained very strong into Q3, in excess of $150,000 of state of household income. It's again a testament to the quality of our assets. These are homes that single family detached with a yard, well located and we're starting to see the benefits of that focus on that level of quality.

Speaker 12

Great. Thank you. And maybe as a follow-up, it looked like turnover continued to trend lower year over year and that obviously had some benefit on the controllable expense side. Do you expect that to sort of continue for the coming quarters given mortgage rates sort of continuing to be stubbornly high here?

Speaker 3

Yes. We were really pleased with retention in the quarter. It's a testament to a number of different things, market conditions. Also our team has done a fantastic job of executing, very focused on the resident experience. And a lot of the investments that we've made into the platform, I think have improved that experience.

Speaker 3

So there is a nice benefit there on our retention levels as well.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Pawlowski with Green Street. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 13

Thanks. Chris, with respect to the financing of the portfolio acquisition, I'm curious, how you weighed issuing equity versus just selling more assets into what is still extremely aggressive bid that owner occupants are willing to pay for your homes?

Speaker 4

Sure. Good morning, John. Good question. And as we're talking about financing of the transaction, I think it's important to keep in mind that the transaction was closed and financed directly from the balance sheet using cash and capacity off of the revolver. And I think it's important to point out that in part, this portfolio was made possible because of the strength and opportunistic flexibility of the balance sheet, right?

Speaker 4

That's what enabled us to be able to act quickly and provide that seamless exit solution that we keep talking about for the seller because we were able to close directly from the balance sheet, while importantly maintaining leverage at targeted levels with net debt to EBITDA still in the 5s, right? And so what that does is that now keeps us in a position to be able to take advantage of incremental debt and equity capital for further consolidation opportunities and more growth. And more broadly, as we think about the capital plan, you're exactly right in terms of the attractiveness of the disposition program and we are fully leaning into that. For this year, we continue to be on track to sell plus or minus 1500 properties or so. And we think that there's good robust opportunity there heading into 2025 and beyond as well, especially as we continue freeing up the remaining previously encumbered homes by the securitizations that are being refinanced off of the balance sheet.

Speaker 13

Okay. And then last one for me is a 2 part question, just so I understand the build to rent impact on same store numbers. And so could you help quantify the NOI growth lift that the rolling in of build to rent properties has had on 2024 same store NOI growth this year? And I have a follow-up.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, John. The new builder of the new builds, the AMH Development Homes still represent a relatively small proportion of the same home pool, less than 10%. So the lift is it will be realized I think in the future as more and more of those homes roll in. The profile of that small subset screens very nicely though with slightly elevated occupancy, quicker turn times, cash to cash turn times.

Speaker 3

So they're performing well, but there's such a small portion of the same home pool that the effect isn't really being seen yet.

Speaker 13

Okay. Is there any effect, given certain quarters have smaller sample size of lease signings? Has there been any, basically lift to new lease or renewal growth rates this year from the rolling in of built to rent communities?

Speaker 3

Again, they're small. The re leasing rate growth for Q3 for new development homes was higher than the scattered site portfolio. Scattered site portfolio had slightly higher renewals due to kind of a more baked in loss to lease. But again, it's still a small portion. I don't think it had any noticeable effect.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 14

Hey, thanks for the time and congrats to everyone. Just want to ask, I guess, there's a little bit of a similar question around kind of infill properties versus build to rent. So maybe if you could quantify the difference in kind of how each property type is behaving relative to some of the new supply? I think we've heard a lot about kind of new supply. I think a lot of it is maybe more built to rent, more periphery of markets.

Speaker 14

So maybe just walk us through kind of how your BTR is performing relative to infill kind of with regards to the new supply impacts?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Adam. I think the easiest way to get insight into that question is to take a look at what's happening in Phoenix. We've talked about it in the past, but Phoenix is really the center of build to rent. And if you follow some of the John Burns statistics, they've had the largest ads there. But the proportion of those build to rents that's actually single family detached like our product is in the 20% range.

Speaker 3

So there's about 80% of the supply coming into the market is attached townhomes, row homes or horizontal apartments. If you look at the performance of our build to rent product, which is, like I said, single family detached in Arizona, we have fantastic occupancy. It's in the 96% -plus range, which exceeds that of the scattered site in that particular market. So our product that we're bringing to market through our development program is performing extremely well relative to the other build direct product that's coming out, and in the case of Phoenix relative to the scattered site portfolio as well.

Speaker 14

Great. That's really helpful. And then just on bad debt, I was wondering if you could just remind us the kind of pre COVID bad debt kind of level or rule of thumb for what bad debt was pre COVID? And then obviously, I would imagine still elevated today relative to that number. So maybe just on kind of the path to getting back there, is that something that can happen next year?

Speaker 14

Is it a multiple year? Is that something where, hey, maybe we stay elevated relative to history over the long run even, just maybe kind of the levels of bad debt?

Speaker 4

Sure. Adam, it's Chris here. To the first part of your question, on the reminder, as a reminder, historic bad debt for us typically ran 70 to 90 basis points or so. And the reason why I give a range is naturally bad debt has always had some level of seasonality to it, no different than what I was just talking about in terms of what we've been seeing this year with slightly higher levels of bad debt in the second and really third quarters very closely correlated with move out season. If we think about this year, keep in mind that the first half of this year was back to sub 1% again.

Speaker 4

And what was encouraging about that is that that was even with the fact that we still have a number of municipalities and local court systems like we've been talking about that are still continuing to process at a slower speed. I think speaks to the health and financial resiliency of our resident base. And then as we've gotten into the back half of this year, just like we are expecting, we saw a tick up in bad debt correlated with move out season. And as we move into 2025, it's still a little bit early to say exactly where we think 2025 is likely going to be. At this point right now, nothing has really changed just yet in terms of processing time at the local municipal and court system levels.

Speaker 4

So we do think that's probably going to be a factor into 2025. But otherwise, resident financial health collections in general feel good. And we feel good about the levels that we're at. And I would remind you also that we're talking about realistically tens of basis points away from where we were historically pre COVID.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Trikareko with Scotiabank. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 15

Thank you. For your markets that haven't seen as much HPA since COVID, some of your Midwest markets, they're now seeing stronger new lease rate growth outperforming the broader portfolio. Is this a dynamic that you'd expect to continue next year?

Speaker 3

Hi, Daniel. This is Brian. We're really pleased with the performance of our Midwestern markets. And you're right, they may not have seen the same level of home price appreciation as some of our other markets over the past few years. But our portfolio within those markets is really, really high quality, well located, very clear value proposition for people looking to move from into the market into really nice homes without having the burdens of ownership in many cases.

Speaker 3

So I think it's more of a testament to the quality of our assets and really the lack of supply of similar, cool quality assets in those marketplaces. So we do expect a continuation of a really good performance

Speaker 4

in those markets since 2025. And Daniel, Chris here. A helpful point to make, to Brian's point, Midwestern markets have been performing great, but they've been difficult to grow in, right? And that's another unique aspect of this Q4 portfolio in that it's giving us access to growth in a number of Midwestern markets, notably Indianapolis that we've had difficulty growing in recently. Thanks for that guys.

Speaker 15

Brian, I think I'll stick with you. Backing into the development yields for new deliveries in Q3, it seems to reflect a decrease versus the first half of the year deliveries. I think you had mentioned nearing 6% NOI yields on those, but any thoughts on what's driving this decrease if that is in fact true? And is the 6% figure a fair number for target yields on deliveries next year?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Daniel. I think, what you're seeing squeezing into the 3rd quarter is really just a little bit of timing and, potentially market mix and even down to the unit mix level. We're still pleased that for the year, we're expecting yields in the high fives. And I would expect to have a similar performance into 2025 on development deliveries, at least that's the visibility we have into the next few months or so.

Speaker 3

But the team is actively looking at ways to optimize that going forward.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 16

Thank you. Regarding the portfolio of 1700 properties you purchased, what's the average age and how does that compare to AMH's overall portfolio? And then are there any homes that are located in new markets?

Speaker 4

Hey Linda, Chris here. Sure. In fact, I can actually just run through a number of fast facts on the portfolio for everyone's understanding. You're exactly right, 1700 properties, all existing rentals. Average year built was 2,007.

Speaker 4

Average size is about 2,100 square feet, 3 to 4 beds, and in place rents approximately in the $2,000 area or so. So the physical nature of the portfolio overlays really nicely with our existing footprint, with as we keep talking about great opportunity for upside as we optimize the portfolio up to our standards. And just for some additional context, occupancy in the portfolio right now net of bad debt is low running probably in the low 90s or so. And margins are high 50s to 60 area. And once optimized and brought up to our standards, given the natural overlay and fit with our existing footprint, our expectation is that these properties will perform just like and alongside any of our other existing legacy AMH properties.

Speaker 16

Thanks. And then just in terms of John Bird's comment of 3% to 4% rent growth next year, are there certain markets you'd highlight is exceeding this and conversely being below?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think the band this is Brian. The band of 3 to 4, most

Speaker 17

of

Speaker 3

our markets are pretty concentrated there. The leader in rent growth according to Burns across our markets would be Savannah and Hilton Head, which would be obviously the top end of the range. And on the other side, expectations of rent growth in San Antonio would be kind of on the lower end.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 6

Yes, thanks. Chris, a stat that you didn't give. Can you say what you underwrote for the loss to lease on the acquired portfolio?

Speaker 4

Sure. Thanks, Brad. I'm a little hesitant to get into that level of specificity on the portfolio. But I will say that's just one piece of the optimization opportunity, implementing our pricing standards across the portfolio. As I mentioned, economic occupancy net of bad debt is in the low 90s.

Speaker 4

We've got nice opportunity to bring that up to AMH standards. And then big opportunity overlaying our level of expenditure controls, bringing in our efficiency from an insurance management perspective, all of the good stuff we're seeing right now in terms of controlling the controllables to R and M turn and CapEx of the homes and then of course leveraging the scalability of our existing property management platform.

Speaker 6

Okay, got it. And then on the revised expense guidance, expenses were obviously low in the Q3. The guidance implies a reacceleration to the highest figure of the year plus or minus. Is there like a comps or timing issue driving that or is there something else?

Speaker 4

No. Look, we're super happy with what we're seeing on expenses. Keep in mind, we had a very efficient expense comp in the Q4 of last year. So a little bit of timing and comp there. But generally speaking, look, I said it in prepared remarks, we could not be happier with our controllable expense results this year.

Speaker 4

And a really good takeaway to think about here is that many of our investments that we've been talking about like Resident 360 are really paying off. And they're not just helping us control expenses, but importantly, they're also helping us maintain outstanding customer service scores, right, which is something that we haven't talked about yet. And we can see that measured by both our internal surveys, and then importantly, some of our 3rd party scores, like Google reviews, that are in excess of 4.5 out of 5 stars.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Austin Wurzmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 18

Great. Thank you. You've referenced the 3% to 4% market rent growth projected for next year. I guess given your operating platform, quality of portfolio and just kind of the fragmentation of the business, I guess, how has your portfolio grown relative to market rent growth forecasts over the years? And just curious if there's any outperformance that's worth flagging?

Speaker 3

I think, Austin, the market rent growth estimates that Burns put out are specific to our markets. I think over the past few years, accepting the period of COVID where it was very unpredictable, we've tracked at the probably the top end of that rent growth. But I would expect the current expectations probably reflect some of our performance in their estimates. So I think it's a good starting point. I think couple that with loss to lease, couple that with our expectations and really the value that single family rentals have relative to ownership today puts us in a really good position into 2025.

Speaker 18

Helpful. And then just second one for me. You've discussed about how more portfolio opportunities you'd expect to come to market. But can you just give us a sense how competitive the process has been and kind of what you expect in terms of number of bidders and really then what gave you the upper hand to get this deal across the finish line?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think it's really deal specific. Discussing the one that we closed, it was competitive. We've seen a number of other portfolios that have been listed and marketed and widely marketed. And then from time to time, we're having direct access to some of the owners to discuss.

Speaker 3

So it's really a mixed bag. But as we said, we're a very logical solution to a lot of kind of the sellers' objectives and goals. And we expect to see them from all channels to brokers, marketed and direct through some of the relationships that we have.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 19

Good afternoon. Thanks a lot for taking my question. You talked about uncertainties in the market. Has there been any signs of increased price sensitivity for customers? Or does that uncertainty that you talked about like help keep your tenant base in place and renew?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thank you, Michael. I think the what I was really referring to was the effect that a number of

Speaker 1

different

Speaker 3

things have had over the past couple of months on activity and the movement. You can see it in other areas of housing as well. If you look at MLS sale activity in September, it was a 14 year low. So there were things going on in the U. S.

Speaker 3

There still are things going on with the election and so forth that have caused that activity to temporarily slow in the back part of Q3. In terms of price sensitivity, we were very pleased with the results that we posted through the 1st 3 quarters, including Q3. In the context of all the other residential companies, I think those numbers will really shine. And then as we get into Q4, you're seeing seasonal return, seeing the effect of some of these kind of temporary disruptions, and that's led to a moderation of our new lease rate growth.

Speaker 19

Got it. And you brought up the temporary disruptions.

Speaker 17

Do you tend to

Speaker 19

see stronger demand following larger weather events like what we've kind of experienced recently?

Speaker 3

Yes. In the past, you do see obviously, you're kind of catching up for the period of limited activity. Most recently in Florida, you had storms back to back. You're talking about weeks of people focusing on things more important than moving around. And then when things calm down, when things get back to normal, you do see a little bit of a pickup.

Speaker 3

We're seeing a little bit of that in Florida. But again, the storms are still pretty recent. It's maybe not as dramatic as you might expect, but we do see a little bit of a pickup as everything comes down.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Omo Toyo Okusanwala with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 17

Yes. Good afternoon, everyone. Dave, congrats from us as well. In terms of just in terms of the stock performance as the call has been going on has just been deteriorating. Again, it's clear that investors feel somewhat disappointed about some of the 4th quarter operating trends that are being discussed.

Speaker 17

So just trying to understand a little bit again as it pertains to the new leasing trends and even some of the October occupancy. If one was to really kind of think about supply versus weather versus kind of classic seasonality, really how much can one really kind of attribute each of these three factors to some of those forecasts? And then also specifically, are there any kind of regional biases where it's impacting some market a little bit more than others?

Speaker 3

Yes. Let me start. I don't agree with your comment about disappointment. We've had a fantastic year. Our year has exceeded expectations.

Speaker 3

Our goal at the outset to the first half of the year was to capture the top line upside, which we did. And then the second half, as we talked about last quarter and this quarter as well, is really a focus on controlling the controllables, cost controls while maintaining outstanding customer service, really leading to a superior resident experience. All the things that we've talked about, we executed on this year. That was the impetus for the raises that we've had through the 1st 3 for the 1st 10 months of the year. So we're in an excellent position.

Speaker 3

We talked about our goals for the balance of this year. We talked about how fantastic demand is for our well located high quality products. And we're going to finish this year strong and be ready for another outstanding year in 2025.

Operator

Thank you. Our last question comes from the line of Jade Rahmani with KBW. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 17

Hi, this is Jason Sapshan on for Jade. It would

Speaker 18

be helpful to hear what you're seeing in the Florida property insurance markets and whether there are any spillover effects into adjacent markets?

Speaker 4

Jason, Chris here. Look, I can talk about it a little bit more broadly. Keep in mind that we ensure our portfolio and place our program at the national and portfolio level. Of course, market mix is important, but it's placed at the portfolio level. Recall that for this year, our renewal was already completed very successfully at the start of this year.

Speaker 4

Our annual premium increase for this year has moderated down into the high single digit area. And so at this point, we're really preparing for our 2025 renewal. And we fully recognize that this has been an active hurricane season. But at the same time, the insurance market is pretty well capitalized today and in a much healthier position than it was several years ago. And when you then take that and couple it, with the AMH reputation, in the insurance market, because of the quality of our disaster and preparedness programs, even though it was an active hurricane season, we still feel good heading into our 2025 renewal and we'll have more updates for that on that for you next quarter.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to pass the call back over to management for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, operator. This is Dave. And I'll close this call a little differently. I'll close where I started today's call and that is to thank all of you for your support and being part of my journey over the past decade plus. With Brian and Chris at the helm, I know AMH is in capable hands as it ventures into 2025 and beyond.

Speaker 2

So I thank you and all have

Speaker 8

a good day. Bye bye.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

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Earnings Conference Call
American Homes 4 Rent Q3 2024
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