Janus International Group Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 29, 2024

Key Takeaways

  • The company highlighted a persistent period of market uncertainty driven by rate cut anticipation and election concerns, leading to continued project delays and a near-term decline in backlog.
  • Janus announced a structural cost reduction plan targeting $8–12 million in annual pre-tax savings, with one-time charges of $2–4 million to simplify the organization and improve margins.
  • Full-year 2024 guidance was lowered, now projecting revenues of $910 million–$925 million and adjusted EBITDA of $195 million–$205 million, reflecting ongoing volume weakness and margin pressure.
  • Despite revenue declines, Janus generated $39.3 million in Q3 free cash flow, repurchased 4.3 million shares for $45.5 million, maintained net leverage at 2.0× and ended the quarter with $226.7 million in liquidity.
  • Management remains optimistic about 2025 catalysts, including the rollout of Nokie ION, increased industry consolidation driving R3 activity, and a full-year contribution from the TMC acquisition.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Janus International Group Q3 2024
00:00 / 00:00

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Janus International Group Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Currently, all participants are in a listen only mode.

Operator

A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn your call over to your host, Ms. Sarah Macioc, Senior Director, Investor Relations of Janus. Thank you, and you may begin, Ms.

Operator

Macioc.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining our earnings conference call. I am joined today by our Chief Executive Officer, Ramey Jackson and our Chief Financial Officer, Anshoom Wong. We hope that you have seen our earnings release issued this morning. We have also posted a presentation in support of this call, which can be found in the Investors section of our website at janisintl.com. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that today's call may include forward looking statements.

Speaker 1

Any statements made describing our beliefs, plans, strategies, expectations, projections and assumptions are forward looking statements. The company's actual results may differ from those anticipated by such forward looking statements for a variety of reasons, many of which are beyond our control. Please see our recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which identify the principal risks and uncertainties that could affect our business, prospects and future results. We assume no obligation to update publicly any forward looking statements and any forward looking statement made by us during this call is based only on information currently available to us and speaks only as of the date when it is made. In addition, we will be discussing or providing certain non GAAP financial measures today, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income and adjusted EPS.

Speaker 1

Please see our release and filings for a reconciliation of these non GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measure. On today's call, Raimi will provide an overview of our business. Anselm will continue with a discussion of our financial results and 2024 guidance before Raimi shares some closing thoughts and we open up the call for your questions. At this point, I will turn the call over to Rami.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Sarah. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Janus has built an industry leading self storage and commercial solutions business that is resilient and delivers long term value for our stakeholders. We are proud of all the developments we've made thus far and of the collective efforts of the entire Janus team. As I go through my prepared remarks, I'd like you to focus on some key things.

Speaker 2

1st, we are experiencing a persistent period of market uncertainty that is causing continued delays with our customers' projects. 2nd, we are taking proactive cost cutting measures to better align the company with current market conditions, while while remaining agile and well positioned to capitalize on market recovery when it occurs. 3rd, as we look to 2025, we see a number of catalysts that gives us optimism. And finally, our balance sheet remains robust with the strength and reliability of our cash flows, we are well positioned to execute against our capital allocation plans. During the Q3, referrals continued as a number of factors impacted demand.

Speaker 2

Anticipation of multiple rate cuts have developers waiting for better borrowing conditions, while uncertainty around the election has also given our customers pause. We are seeing this primarily with our mid level non institutional customers that make up a sizable portion of our base. As we deliver against the existing orders, that slowdown is causing what we expect to be near term decline in our backlog. Self Storage is of long term business and our customers invest in the long term future of their assets. In order to improve profitability, we have announced our structural cost reduction plan, which includes actions designed to improve margins, simplify and streamline our organizational structure and enhance flexibility and effective efficiencies.

Speaker 2

To achieve these goals, we have evaluated our ongoing labor needs, driving savings in our SG and A expense and rationalizing our real estate holdings. The focus is on rightsizing the organization while maintaining key resources to remain agile when market dynamics shift. Together, we expect these actions to generate approximately $8,000,000 to $12,000,000 of annual pre tax cost savings. In connection with the plan, we expect to report total estimate one time pre tax charges of $2,000,000 to $4,000,000 As we look ahead into 2025, we are encouraged by a number of factors. We are reassured by the results of our beta testing and customer interest we are seeing in Nokie Ion offering, which was rolled out in early October.

Speaker 2

We expect continued industry consolidation to drive R3 activity. And in 2025 we will have a full year contribution from TMC and our commercial and other sales channel. We are confident in the long term fundamentals of the business despite the near term challenges we face today. Now let me provide some high level thoughts on our performance in the Q3. Our financial results in the Q3 included revenue that was down across all three of our sales channels reflective of general market conditions.

Speaker 2

Not surprisingly, the decline in revenues weighed on adjusted EBITDA margin performance. The resilience of our business model allowed us to still deliver solid cash flow generation despite the decrease in revenues. Our balance sheet remains stable with net leverage at the end of the 3rd quarter at 2.0 times, which is within our stated long term target range of 2 to 3 times. Turning to the performance of our sales channels, which Anson will expand upon shortly, total self storage was down 22.4%. Tighter borrowing standards and elevated interest rates continue to cause operators and developers to delay projects until economic conditions get more clarity.

Speaker 2

Our commercial and other sales channel was down 7.8% for the quarter relative to the Q3 of last year, reflecting decreased demand for carports and sheds, which was partially offset by the strength in TMC. Now turning to Nokie. Our innovative suite of remote access solutions expected new installs from Nokie 1 slowed slightly in the quarter as customers held out for the Nokie ION rollout in early October. As a result, the number of installed units increased to 346,000 from 323,000 at the end of the 3rd quarter, representing a sequential growth of 7.1%. With its unique and flexible customization capabilities and updated pricing structure, we anticipate healthy demand for Nokie ION.

Speaker 2

Our combination of strong liquidity and continued solid cash generation put us in a position to be active in our capital allocation activities for the quarter. For the Q3, we repurchased 4,300,000 shares for a total cost of $45,500,000 as part of our previously announced $100,000,000 share repurchase program. In summary, despite near term challenges, we remain encouraged by the fundamentals that we expect will drive long term growth for our company. We are focused on the things we can control, safely and reliably delivering services and solutions for our customers. We are the premier provider for self storage industry and we will continue to innovate and evolve the business as the market changes.

Speaker 2

We look forward to expanding our strong market position and creating long term value for all of our stakeholders in 2024 and beyond. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ansem for a further overview of our results along with updates to our 2024 guidance. Ansem?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Rami, and good morning, everyone. As Rami stated, we are executing against a challenging landscape. In the Q3, consolidated revenue of $230,100,000 was 17.9% lower as compared to the prior year quarter with declines in all three sales channels. As Rami stated, our self storage business was down 22.4%, new construction was down 12.6%, while R3 was off 34.4% for the quarter. We saw continued project deferrals in both new construction and R3.

Speaker 3

While we haven't seen a material increase in project cancellations, we now expect these delays to persist through the end of 2024. The decline in revenues was 90% volume and 10% price. As we've discussed previously, our commercial actions are meant to reflect the premium solutions we offer. The price component of the impact on revenues this quarter reflects our proactive efforts to remain competitive. Our Commercial and Other segment saw a 7.8% decline in the 3rd quarter driven by overall market softness and continued weakness in demand for carports and sheds offset somewhat by contributions from the TMC acquisition.

Speaker 3

3rd quarter adjusted EBITDA of $43,100,000 was down 43.4% compared to Q3 of 2023. This resulted in adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.7 percent compared to 27.2% in the prior year period. While decline in EBITDA margin was primarily due to volume decreases, we also had an adjustment to our provision for credit losses in the quarter due to a customer of ours filing for bankruptcy and marketing conditions impacting some customers' ability to make timely payments. For the Q3, we produced adjusted net income of $15,700,000 a 59.8 percent year over year decline and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.11 We generated cash from operating activities of $43,000,000 continuing to demonstrate the robust cash generation profile of the business. Capital expenditures in the quarter were $3,700,000 compared to $3,900,000 in the Q3 of 2023.

Speaker 3

For the Q3, we generated free cash flow of $39,300,000 On a trailing 12 month basis, this represented a free cash flow conversion of adjusted net income of 134%. We finished the quarter with $226,700,000 in total liquidity, including $102,100,000 of cash and equivalents on the balance sheet. Our total outstanding long term debt at quarter end was $586,100,000 and net leverage was 2 times. During the quarter, we executed against our $100,000,000 share repurchase program. Year to date, we have repurchased 6,000,000 shares or $70,900,000 Now moving to our 2024 guidance.

Speaker 3

So far in the Q4, we are seeing a continuation of trends that began earlier this year with softness in demand and project delay persisting. We now expect challenges in deferrals and demand to continue for the remainder of 2024. While we had hoped that the interest rate cut in September would have had a more positive immediate impact, anticipation of additional rate cuts before year end as developers continuing to delay. As such, we have adjusted our full year 2024 guidance for revenues and adjusted EBITDA as follows. We now expect revenue to be in the range of $910,000,000 to $925,000,000 We anticipate adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $195,000,000 to $205,000,000 which equates to an adjusted EBITDA margin at the midpoint of 21.8 percent for 2024.

Speaker 3

While we are adjusting the outlook for 2024 down from our prior guidance, we believe the long term fundamentals for the self storage industry are intact and our long term framework remains in place. As a reminder, that long term outlook does not factor in impacts from commercial actions. As we mentioned on the Q2 call, in early Q3 we instituted commercial actions to better align our pricing for new projects with the recent declines in steel pricing that we have seen since the beginning of 2024. We expect to see the impacts from these actions during 2025. As we look into 2025, we expect improving market conditions from a combination of factors that Rami discussed earlier around R3 demand, Nokia Ion and a full year contribution from TMC and our commercial and other sales channel.

Speaker 3

We also anticipate that we will have realized some of the benefits of our structural cost reduction plan, which is expected to generate approximately $8,000,000 to $12,000,000 of annual pre tax cost savings. We expect to record total estimated one time pre tax charges of $2,000,000 to $4,000,000 in connection with the plan. One additional note, we expect to file our 10 Q on November 1. Thank you. I will now turn the call over to Rami for his closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Rami?

Speaker 2

Thank you again, Anselm. The hard work we have done and the momentum we have built are allowing us to face near term challenges while executing against our capital allocation goals. As Ansel mentioned, despite near term headwinds, our long term objectives remain intact. The demand drivers for self storage are life event driven and those events continue to happen. Occupancy rates remain elevated from historical norms.

Speaker 2

We have conviction in our model and optimism going into next year and believe that we will be well positioned to capitalize on the market recovery when it occurs. We are the industry leader in self storage providing full solutions to our customers. With our balance sheet strength, our strong cash flow foundation, we will continue expanding our suite of offerings and capabilities while seeking out and delivering accretive shareholder value enhancing opportunities. I look forward to continuing to execute on our plan as we work to drive long term value creation for all of our stakeholders. Thank you again for joining us.

Speaker 2

Operator, we can now open up the lines for Q and A.

Operator

Thank We will take our first question from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning guys.

Speaker 2

Hey, Jeff. Hey,

Speaker 4

so last quarter it seemed like you felt pretty good that you scrubbed the backlog and understood the deferrals. And I'm just wondering what really changed here to more in kind of the meaningful cut? And then maybe just speak to what you're seeing on new order incoming order activity and any cancellations?

Speaker 3

Hey, Jeff. I think one of the big things that changes that we did do the scrub and we continue to do the scrub is that a lot of the projects that we had hoped that would release based on the interest rate cut did not release. So we're just seeing the same as what we saw in the prior quarter with stuff not moving. That was a big change from the last kind of look of it when we did the scrub. I think the other thing is as you guys know it's public when the Fed kind of provided the rate cut, they also provided 2 further proposed cuts coming this year.

Speaker 3

And I don't think that did us help in terms of to our developers now that they at least have visibility to 2 more in the by the end of this year. So I think we got more of the same pushback in terms of from a financial point of view.

Speaker 4

Okay. Can you just talk about incoming order rates and any cancellations?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, in terms of new orders, it's status quo. It's the REITs and the larger operators continue to do business as usual. I think the most impacted kind of customer segment was the non institutional operator, and the mom and pops. And that's kind of on the new supply side.

Speaker 2

The R3, there are some bright spots on the R3 side of it. We are starting to see some momentum kind of in the pipeline and also conversion into backlog that we're optimistic and then also an acceleration on the Nokie Ion opportunity on the tech side of the business.

Speaker 4

Okay. And then lastly, decrementals are obviously, this has come pretty swift, but decrementals are pretty harsh. Anything else you guys can do to mitigate the decrementals versus some of the restructuring? I noticed SG and A kind of surprisingly ticked up here sequentially despite kind of expectations

Speaker 3

for lower activity. Yes. We're definitely continuing to look at that. We gave a range. We're not complete with our Phase 2 of our structural cost adjustments.

Speaker 3

If you look through when the Q is published at the end of the week, you'll see that there is a bad debt that we had to take as one of our big customers went bankrupt that impacted that line.

Speaker 4

What was the magnitude of that?

Speaker 3

If you look at the Q, the adjusted amount was about $6,500,000 that hit the adjusted EBITDA.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thanks a lot. Appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jeff.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Reuben Garner with Benchmark. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Good morning, guys.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Brian.

Speaker 6

So I guess, can a couple of things on the long term framework that you're referencing. Can you remind us what that is? And you said it doesn't include commercial actions. Can we get some detail on exactly how much those commercial actions are going to reduce price over the next year? And I guess that seems like a structural change.

Speaker 6

I mean steel prices are still above where they were pre-twenty 20. So if you're having to reset prices, I'd imagine you don't expect steel to go back up anytime soon. So does the long term framework for margins and growth need to be adjusted?

Speaker 2

I'll make one comment and then you can kind of speak to the modeling. But Reuben, our opinion, I mean depending on the election, I think one of the candidates is talking about further Tariffs. Yes tariffs. And so it's of our opinion that if that side of the house wins, we'll certainly see steel go the opposite direction. You are right, steel is at a near time low right now, but certainly not where it was before 2020 so to speak.

Speaker 2

So that's just our opinion on the steel movement as it relates to what happens with the election.

Speaker 3

Yes. And Ruben in terms of the long term framework, I think we had we haven't changed the margins 25% to 27%. The reason why we're just pointing it out is that we identified last quarter that we had taken some commercial actions that will impact us in 2025. The guide the kind of ballpark we said it would be in fact it would be about kind of high single digits in the storage part of our business is the impact. We do have the offset from a cost point of view.

Speaker 3

That's why we're still holding to the long term framework from a margin point of view. So despite having to give up some of the price on the storage piece, we'll get some offset on the cost side.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's helpful. And then, in terms of the further delays or continued delays, if you will, can you just help us understand how this works? I mean, I can I understand it on the R3 side, if projects are put on hold, but I thought maybe there would be more visibility into the new construction side of the business given that you guys come later in the cycle? Are those projects being stopped in the middle of a job or does impacts you're seeing now just from projects that didn't start 6 months, 9 months ago?

Speaker 6

Just help us walk through the dynamic there.

Speaker 3

Yes. We're seeing both. So there's actually projects that have started and then they just put it on hold in terms of where they're at. And then to your point, there's a lot of projects that were planned to start that have not started that should have started if you look to follow the normal schedule.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks guys. Appreciate the color. Good luck.

Speaker 7

Thanks, Jason.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Phil Ng with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hey, guys. I think, Amsel, you're still pointing to maintaining your longer term margins over time. But certainly if I look at your guidance for the Q4 implies I think mid teen type EBITDA margins. Appreciating some of these cost out efforts may not kick into overdrive right away. If demand stays pretty muted like what we're seeing in the back half of this year, is mid teen EBITDA margins the way to think about $125,000,000 Do you need any kind of demand and pricing to kind of really bounce off if you get back to like the longer term profile?

Speaker 8

How should we think about these movements?

Speaker 3

Yes. Without providing guidance, we're not trying to get 25% yet. The way we look at it, if you look at the Q4 number, it's extreme low volume. Yes, we're trying to put a realistic number into the Q4 number and that's why you saw the adjustment there. And obviously the cost action that we announced will have minimal impact in Q4.

Speaker 3

They'll probably hit majority in 2025. And then the other thing is once we have obviously balance of PMC coming next year. We have some of the Nokia Ion that we talked about that's driving that's coming through as well next year. So I think the way we look at it at least early on for right now is that if volume gets back to a somewhat normalized kind of range that we think it's going to be, we'll get back into the above the teens. And that's why we haven't kind of changed from what we see from a margin point of view.

Speaker 8

Okay. And are you curtailing production in the Q4 because demand is obviously much weaker than you would have thought. Does that have an impact on margin in the Q4 as well?

Speaker 3

Yes. That's why you see that margin rate hit in terms of what Q4 is by itself because the volume is down a lot. I think what we try to do again, we've been scrubbing the backlog continuously. What we want to do is really, just at this point, not knowing when these projects are going to come on hold. We said, look, I don't think we're going to have to we're going to forecast any release of the stuff that's on hold at this point and just continue the stuff that is coming through and just let that be the assumption at this point.

Speaker 3

They eventually will have to get released. And I think the one thing I'll point to is that our international business, again, when you guys see the Q, we had mentioned that they went through this as well. And they finally got to, I would say, flattish to slight growth in Q3, went through a similar thing like this. And that's kind of what we're hoping that these projects start releasing.

Speaker 8

Okay. How are your backlogs looking? And how much visibility do you have? I mean, it doesn't sound like you're seeing cancellations. But I guess are you seeing cancellations?

Speaker 8

Like what are your backlogs telling you?

Speaker 3

Yes. We're not seeing cancellations, any meaningful changes there. I think what we're saying is a small decline in the backlog and that would make sense if you have customers thinking about that they're putting projects on hold. They're not going to put more in the backlog until they start these projects and that's kind of what we're seeing. It's not a meaningful change from what we've seen, but it is slightly lower.

Speaker 2

And the pipeline remains strong.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then when we talk about project delays, I believe it's really largely at the contractor level, not at the end customer level. So contractually that's what you guys have. How much latitude do these customers have in terms of delaying? Is it like 3 months?

Speaker 8

Is there a window to like delay it to like a year or there's not much contractual limitations in terms of how long they can delay?

Speaker 2

Yes, that's a good question. I think it's on both levels. I think you have kind of the developers waiting for a better macro and then you have the contractors that have the ability to press pause. But there's certainly a shelf life to that. At some point in time they'll certainly release.

Speaker 2

I mean there's already investment made into the asset. And so time will tell that's why we muted the Q4. But there's no question at some point in time that they'll release out of the backlog.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then just one last one for me. Remi, I think the weakness you're seeing is largely the mom and pop operators and the non institutional side of things. Are you losing share in that market by any chance? And have you seen heightened price competition just outside of steel prices, right?

Speaker 8

I mean that I fully get you just passing that through, but are you seeing more competition and share movement in this current backdrop?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think there are more competitors, not concerned about losing share. I think when you look at our model, we're not just a door manufacturer and I think the market appreciates that. There certainly will be opportunistic decisions made on low price, but that's certainly not sustainable in a market like this. You want a supplier that has a strong balance sheet, that has a good business model to support the growth.

Speaker 2

So I'm not necessarily concerned about it. I'm certainly paying attention to it, but I'm not overly concerned about it.

Speaker 8

Okay. Appreciate all the color, guys.

Speaker 2

Thanks.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Daniel Moore with CJS Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Yes. Thank you again, Rami and Ansel for taking questions. Maybe a little bit of a repeat, but just big picture, trying to marry the idea that customers not wanting to delay investment for too long for fear of losing share versus the kind of pullback. So when you speak to those mid tier self storage customers, how much of it directly is interest rate and election uncertainty versus any discussion around kind of supply demand balance that may take a little bit longer to work through?

Speaker 3

It's hard to tell you. Dan, we don't have a direct saying it's this reason and that reason. I think we get both from the uncertainty. I think there's just if you ask the customers and we ask when we pull a lot of them, it's just it's a wait and see game right now because the at least from an interest rate side, there's already the forecast of 2 more coming down. And then from the election side is that which party wins.

Speaker 3

And like Rami alluded to, is there something that from a cost point of view that they have to be worried about in terms of projects if the steel price goes up because of tariffs. So I think it's still a mix of bolt in that we're at least hearing. Yes.

Speaker 2

Just a little more color to it. I would say that the true mom and pops are 100% on the sidelines right now from an interest rate perspective and lending requirement perspective. And then there's more of the institutional non REIT that have capital that are being opportunistic on interest rates. And then like I mentioned earlier, the REITs are just business as usual.

Speaker 7

Got it. Helpful. Just switching gears, the credit loss in the quarter, are there is there any incremental or additional built into the Q4 guide? And are there any other customers that are materially behind on payments?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think when we took the had the one customer that went bankrupt, we took a more thorough deep dive of all our customer sets. That's why there was an additional reserve that was put against kind of the other remaining accounts. There's not an incremental assumed in Q4 at this point in time based on what we see. But I think it's just we just want to make sure we appropriately reserve for any risk that we see in there.

Speaker 3

And I think this was unfortunately the customer went bankrupt was a long time customer and a very large customer. So that did have a meaningful impact in the quarter.

Speaker 7

Got it. But nothing additional that's at least Yes, nothing that we

Speaker 3

see additional at this point.

Speaker 7

Okay. And then touched on this in the earlier questions, but you've got the impact from commercial actions coming through next year that you described previously. So are you saying that's going to be a little bit greater or sort of just reiterating that? That's first. And then second, given the revised guidance off of certainly lower base and the optimism that you're describing for 2025, you expect net net to be flattish down a bit in terms of top line in 2025?

Speaker 7

I know you don't want to get into the guidance range, but I'm just trying to map it all together.

Speaker 3

Yes. The way we think about it, Dan, right now is that we're I don't see a change from what we provided in Q2 in terms of the price on commercial access that we did. So it's still same assumption that we're saying for that piece of it. And I think the other items that Remi had referred to that are positives for next year still remain in terms of balance of TMC, the Nokia ion trend that's improving and it's been a positive trend that beta has worked out really well and we're seeing good orders coming through there. So our expectation is we should see some positives from those pieces.

Speaker 3

And the last one is that we're still seeing M and A action within the self storage industry, which will drive more of that R3 that we're starting to see again.

Speaker 7

Okay. And last for me, you obviously ramped up share repurchase activity with the further share price weakness this morning. What is your appetite to continue to aggressively buy back stock? And is it a situation where the Board can re up that you have that flexibility based on what's left in the current authorization? Thanks again.

Speaker 3

Yes, Dan. Definitely, obviously, we still feel the stock is undervalued, especially even at today's price. So definitely, we'll be in the market again.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Brad Hewitt with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning guys. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Brad. Good morning, Brad.

Speaker 5

So curious what you guys are assuming in terms of the phasing of when some of the delayed storage projects come back? And as we think about the Q4 guidance, is there any way you could quantify the magnitude of those delays out of Q3 that you previously expected to come back in Q4 and those are now pushed to 25?

Speaker 3

So I'd tell you like if you just did without trying to giving exact number Brad, if you look at the storage piece of it, I would say it's equally among all the stores and the commercial in terms of what we're assuming here right now. We just looked at it and say, hey look, storage looks like it's just not moving here. So we're just going to keep the same assumption there. And I think commercial, again, we had thought that commercial would have bottomed out. And we just said, look, let's just look at it and say that doesn't come back as well and just leave it from an assumption same assumption.

Speaker 3

So I would say, if you look at our readjustment and forecast, it's just really carrying over what we saw in Q3 into Q4, with the exception of the obviously the holiday weeks and days that are in there. Yes. And I'd

Speaker 2

add one more thing. I think when you look at where we are today versus last quarter, the drivers of the headwinds remain the same. There have not really been interest rate cuts. In fact, I believe it's been the opposite. And then we also have this looming election.

Speaker 2

So the macro from our perspective has not changed whatsoever. That's why we just deferred it to the next quarter.

Speaker 5

Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess just following up on the capital allocation point. It sounds like you're going to expect to be active deploying capital in the near term. I guess I'm curious as we fast forward a couple of quarters, I mean it seems like the denominator, the EBITDA, the net leverage calculation will likely step down a bit.

Speaker 5

So the net leverage may mathematically step up. So just curious any thoughts on that and kind of how that could potentially constrain your willingness to deploy capital in the near term?

Speaker 3

Yes, we've definitely looked at that Brad. So great question there. I think we're still going to be well within our 2% to 3% net leverage ratio range that we've guided to, despite the pressure on the EBITDA coming down in the past 12 months. But I think I don't see at least a major constraint at this point in terms of what we need to do.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

We'll take our next question from John Lovallo with UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Hey, guys. Good morning. This is actually Spencer Coffman on for John. Thank you for the questions. Maybe the first one, just given the headwind called out from election uncertainty, do you expect a snapback in activity once we have more clarity on the outcome?

Speaker 9

Are projects being put on hold specifically because of this uncertainty? And what would it take for projects to just be outright canceled as opposed to delayed?

Speaker 2

Look, I think our view is not just really necessarily the election, but interest rates matter as well. I think it's a culmination of just the general macro. And so our view is and I've been in this industry my entire career. I've been through some peaks and valleys. And my experience is when the macro once we get through this law and the environment gets better, there's tremendous tailwinds in self storage.

Speaker 2

And so that's we're hopeful for kind of looking at the second half of twenty twenty five, very close to our customers and listening to kind of taking their pulse and we just need to get through these uncertain times around the 2 kind of headwinds that we mentioned.

Speaker 9

Okay. That makes sense. And was there any impact from recent hurricanes or weather in Florida and Southeast either in your Q3 results or in your revised outlook for 2024?

Speaker 3

Yes. Just very small that we looked at fortunately there. Most of the sites that we're working on that are active were not in those major areas. I think the one of the things that is at least positive for us from a business point of view is we're starting to see some orders for replacement doors for some of the other sites that were hit, that we're starting to see as well.

Speaker 9

Okay. Got it. Thanks guys.

Operator

And there are no further questions on the line at this time. I'll return the call to Ramey Jackson for any additional or closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate your support of Janus and look forward to updating you on our progress. Have a great day. Be well.

Operator

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.

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