Phillips 66 Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 29, 2024

There are 19 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to the Q3 2024 Phillips 66 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Emily, and I'll be your operator for today's call. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Jeff Dieterk, Vice President, Investor Relations. Jeff, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Welcome to Phillips 66 earnings conference call. Participants on today's call will include Mark Lasier, Chairman and CEO Kevin Mitchell, CFO Don Baldridge, Midstream and Chemicals Rich Harbison, Refining and Brian Mandel, Marketing and Commercial. Today's presentation can be found on the Investor Relations section of the Phillips 66 website, along with supplemental financial and operating information. Slide 2 contains our Safe Harbor statement. We will be making forward looking statements during today's call.

Speaker 1

Actual results may differ materially from today's comments. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included here as well as in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jeff. Welcome everyone to our Q3 earnings call. The strength of our results in a challenging refining market demonstrates the benefits of our differentiated downstream portfolio. During the quarter, we continued to execute on our strategic priorities and delivered strong operating performance. Since July 2022, we have returned $12,500,000,000 to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

Speaker 2

We're approaching our $13,000,000,000 to $15,000,000,000 target. In refining, we reduced our cost by $1 per barrel and we continued to run our system well. The improvement in clean product yield reflects our investments in high return low capital projects. We continue to evaluate all of our assets as part of our strategic priorities and ongoing portfolio optimization. We recently agreed to sell our 49% interest in a Switzerland based retail joint venture for approximately $1,240,000,000 Our asset dispositions are now expected to exceed the $3,000,000,000 target.

Speaker 2

We plan to use the cash proceeds to support our strategic priorities, including returns to shareholders and debt reduction. During the quarter, we achieved the targets on 2 of the 6 priorities ahead of schedule. First, we have accomplished our $1,400,000,000 business transformation cost reduction target. We've driven a permanent shift in the way we work and we remain diligent with a culture of continuous improvement. Our employees have done an incredible job delivering on this commitment and the results are clear as Kevin will cover later.

Speaker 2

Secondly, we achieved our $400,000,000 synergy target across our NGL wellhead to market value chain. This brings the total uplift in mid cycle adjusted EBITDA to $1,400,000,000 from acquiring and successfully integrating DCP Midstream. Slide 4 shows the growth of our midstream business. We have advanced our wellhead to market strategy through organic projects and strategic transactions that provided significant synergies and strong returns. Our Sweeny hub became the 2nd largest NGL fractionation hub in the U.

Speaker 2

S. With the completion of Frac 4 in 2022. The DCP transactions strengthen this competitive position by fully integrating our value chain. In the Q3 of 2024, we further expanded the business with the acquisition of Pinnacle Midstream. We also approved the construction of an adjacent processing plant with startup expected in mid-twenty 25.

Speaker 2

On a trailing 12 month basis, Midstream's adjusted EBITDA has increased to $3,700,000,000 from $2,100,000,000 3 years ago. In addition, Midstream adjusted EBITDA is ahead of 2024 guidance despite weaker natural gas and NGL prices. The stable cash generation from this business covers the company's dividend and our sustaining capital. We continue to high grade our portfolio and capitalize on our growth platform to generate strong returns and significant free cash flow. Before I wrap up my opening comments, I want to acknowledge our previously announced plans to cease operations at the Los Angeles Refinery in the Q4 of 2025.

Speaker 2

The uncertainty of the long term sustainability of the refinery and market dynamics were key factors in this decision. We are evaluating the future use of the property and we'll work with the state of California to continue to supply transportation fuels to meet customer demand. As we work towards decommissioning, we're grateful for our employees' continued focus on safety and operating excellence. We are committed to treating all of our employees and contractors fairly and respectfully throughout the process. We continue to deliver on our strategic priorities and targets.

Speaker 2

I look forward to providing an update on the next earnings call. Now over to Kevin.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Mark. Slide 5 provides cost detail at the total company level through the end of the 3rd quarter compared with the same period of 2022. We have supported growth while mitigating inflationary impacts through business transformation and synergy capture. Through the 1st 9 months of the year, we have realized approximately $700,000,000 in cost reductions, including our share of WRB costs. In addition, we have reduced logistics spend by $200,000,000 These costs flow through gross margin.

Speaker 3

We lowered sustaining capital spend and continue to prioritize safe and reliable operations. Slide 6 shows the business transformation reduction to refining cost per barrel. Adjusted controllable costs excluding turnarounds are $5.84 per barrel year to date. We have eliminated $1 per barrel of costs, achieving our target ahead of schedule. Slide 7 covers key financial metrics.

Speaker 3

Earnings were $346,000,000 Adjusted earnings were $859,000,000 or $2.04 per share. The adjusted results exclude special items, which include a legal accrual in the 3rd quarter. We generated operating cash flow of $1,100,000,000 and returned $1,300,000,000 to shareholders. I will now move to Slide 8 to cover the segment results. Adjusted earnings decreased $125,000,000 compared with the prior quarter.

Speaker 3

Midstream results decreased mostly due to seasonal maintenance costs and lower equity earnings reflecting the sale of our interest in the Rockies Express pipeline. These decreases were partially offset by higher margins on LPG exports. In Chemicals, results increased mainly due to higher polyethylene chain margins and lower costs. Lower refining results primarily reflect weaker crack spreads. Capture of the new indicator was 92%, in line with the previous quarter.

Speaker 3

In addition, the plan to cease operations at our Los Angeles refinery resulted in the acceleration of depreciation. The impact in the Q3 was $25,000,000 Going forward, we expect approximately $230,000,000 per quarter of additional depreciation through the Q4 of 2025. Marketing and Specialties results were higher, mostly due to seasonally stronger margins. In renewable fuels results decreased due to lower realized margins. The Rodeo renewable energy complex produced 44,000 barrels per day of renewable fuels during the Q3.

Speaker 3

Slide 9 shows the change in cash flow. Cash from operations excluding working capital was $1,500,000,000 supported by the stability of our midstream and marketing and specialties businesses. Working capital was a use of $381,000,000 mainly reflecting the impact of falling commodity prices. In July, we acquired Pinnacle Midstream for $567,000,000 Also during the quarter, we received cash proceeds of approximately $200,000,000 from the sale of non core midstream assets. Looking ahead to the Q4, in Chemicals, we expect the global O and P utilization rate to be in the mid-90s.

Speaker 3

In refining, we expect the worldwide crude utilization rate to be in the low to mid-90s and turnaround expense to be between $125,000,000 $135,000,000 Full year turnaround expense is now expected to be $485,000,000 to $495,000,000 This is a reduction of more than $100,000,000 from our original guidance. We anticipate corporate and other costs to come in between $300,000,000 $330,000,000 Now we will open the line for questions after which Mark will wrap up the call.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. As we open the call for questions, as a courtesy to all participants, please limit yourself to one Our first question comes from John Royall with JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So my first question is just on your decision to shutter your remaining conventional capacity in California. Can you just talk about what went into that decision? And how much did recent regulatory changes play into that decision or was it something that you had planned even asset that?

Speaker 2

Good morning, John. As we've stated in our strategic priorities, we will do an ongoing evaluation of all of our assets. And so the LA decision really was part of that. And the Los Angeles Refinery has been under significant market pressure. And the refinery, if you think back historically, it was originally designed to process in state California crude production and that's declined by about 75%.

Speaker 2

So the continued outlook in California in face of declining diesel and gasoline demand was pretty tough one. And so when we took that given outlook for the markets and also factor in California stated policy to move away from fossil fuels, we expected California to be a pretty challenging refining market going forward. And we also have the typical maintenance and regulatory spending that we face and that's only going up. And so there are a lot of factors that go into these decisions and these decisions are only made after we do an exhaustive review of all the alternatives. And that exhaustive review led us to idle the refinery as we announced earlier this month.

Speaker 2

And so it wasn't any kind of knee jerk reaction in the face of any policy changes in California. This has been a long term analysis.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you, Mark. And then my follow-up is on the balance sheet and maybe you could just talk about your outlook for the balance sheet and perhaps where you think you could finish the year on leverage following the sale of the Swiss business and potentially the Germany and Austria business, recognizing there are a lot of moving pieces around working capital and some other things, but just any guidance on where you could finish the year on the balance sheet?

Speaker 3

Yes, John, it's Kevin. So certainly expect to finish the year with a stronger cash or net debt position than where we are currently. And that will be partly reflected by proceeds from asset dispositions, but the bulk of that is going to be 2025. So we expect the Swiss business that transaction to close in the Q1 of next year And the Germany, Austria retail business, we're still in active negotiations around that. And so that will be a 2025 item as well.

Speaker 3

But nonetheless, the proceeds from dispositions give us a lot more added flexibility as we think about balance sheet priorities continuing to return cash to shareholders and also investment in the business. And just as a reminder from a capital allocation standpoint, the first priority is sustaining capital that's about $1,000,000,000 per year. The second priority is the dividend that's approximately $2,000,000,000 per year and everything after that is available for investing in the company in growth, returning cash to shareholders of which the dividend obviously is a part of that, but share repurchases and then the balance sheet and debt reduction. So we're a bit off of our target leverage metric and we expect to get closer to that. It will take a little while when you look at the different components of the debt and the equity on that, but we expect to be moving our way towards that objective.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Roger Read with Wells Fargo. Roger, please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes. Thank you. Good morning. Kevin, I have two questions for you here. I'll just throw them together.

Speaker 6

One is we think about the stated savings, the $1,400,000,000 on the synergies or I'm sorry, on the overall cost reduction plan, the $400,000,000 from the synergies with DCP offset by the inflation that's in Slides 56, I think, which it sounds like you're using a standard CPI there. I just would like to maybe dig into a little bit of how do we look at those 2 moving parts? 1, pretty substantial savings. 2, inflation that's out there. You mentioned it comes out of the operating costs, but those can also be impacted by seasonality, by maintenance and so forth.

Speaker 6

But how we should really look at that on a net basis and what's the maybe inflationary pressure going forward?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think, as you look at that and as you point out, we highlighted the inflationary impact. We also highlight the market impact. And you could say there's 2 versions of similar factors. They're market driven.

Speaker 3

They're outside of our control. One of them has been a headwind for the last couple of years. The other one has been a tailwind for us with lower natural gas prices primarily. And so what we're trying to focus on is you would expect those things that are directly within our control and that's reflected in that cost reduction bar on the chart. On market, I wouldn't be completely dismissive of that being outside of our control because we are also as part of our cost reduction initiatives focused on energy reduction in terms of from a volume quantity standpoint.

Speaker 3

And so that is something that we're very focused on as well. It's also consistent with our environmental GHG objectives around that. But on a go forward basis, I think the worst of the inflationary pressures are behind us and we'd expect that that has somewhat normalized on a go forward basis. So, lesser headwinds than we have experienced over the last couple of years.

Speaker 6

And then just as a follow-up on that, the $100,000,000 reduction in the turnaround costs, is any of that related to the LA issue, the shutdown? Or is that just outperformance during the year?

Speaker 7

Hey, Roger, this is Rich. There's really two key factors in that $100,000,000 reduction in our outlook. Half of it's attributed to this enhanced inspection process that we've been putting in place over the last several years. It's allowed us to actually extend the intervals between turnarounds. So some of that data was coming in this year on some planned turnarounds and after we had a chance to evaluate it, we were able to defer those turnarounds.

Speaker 7

That's roughly half of that 100,000,000 dollars And the other half of the 100,000,000 is the organization's execution of the work. We've actually gotten much more efficient at our execution through a number of initiatives that we put in place with the turnarounds and we're seeing the fruits of that labor come through now.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Neil, please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Yes. Good morning, team. Just want to follow-up on the comments around balance sheet and capital allocation. And you guys have made a tremendous amount of progress in returning capital to shareholders via buyback and dividends. But how do you think about the pace of that going forward and what appears to be a softer commodity environment?

Speaker 3

Yes, Neil. It's for the last year and a half or longer, we have been very focused on the commitment that we put out there, the $13,000,000,000 to $15,000,000,000 target. And that has somewhat informed our decisions around the pace of buybacks. As we get to the end of that, I think we will move to more of a in excess of 50% of operating cash flow being the sort of return to shareholder metric. We talked about that I think on the last call that the go forward assumption around this is 50% or more of cash from operations being returned to shareholders.

Speaker 3

I think that's a good way to think about this as you model out into 2025 for that metric.

Speaker 8

Helpful. And then we saw very solid strength in the Chemicals business relative to some of your peers this quarter and then marketing ticked up. I would imagine some of that's just because crude softened at the end of the quarter. But can you talk about those two businesses and the outlook as we think about the sequential into Q4 early next year?

Speaker 2

Neil, I'll take the chemicals side of that. And we've seen CPChem's performance strong. They're able to operate at high rates when others have had to cut back because of costs. I think that they don't have any operation or much operations exposure in Europe, which is beneficial and they've got their advantaged feedstock position, low cost ethane in 2 locations in the world that they've really been able to lean into. You do see some seasonal softness coming in this time of year, which is pretty typical.

Speaker 2

And that with lower crude prices makes naphtha producers, the floor a little bit impacted there as well. But on the long term, we see continued improvement in the macro for chemicals. They're coming out of that trough of a year or so ago and they continue to make good progress. They continue to see demand from their perspective and their ability to capture the market increasing and we see that going forward.

Speaker 9

Hey, Neil, this is Brian. On the marketing side, Q3 is typically marketing's strongest quarter and during the quarter marketing had improved margins in the U. S. Across both wholesale and franchise channels driven as you mentioned by falling spot prices. We also saw some stronger volumes.

Speaker 9

Additionally, in the lubricants business, base oil margins also improved with falling feedstock prices. But going forward, expectations for the M and S segment in Q4 are just a seasonal pullback in earnings consistent with what we call mid cycle Q4 earnings.

Speaker 8

Thank you both. Appreciate that. Thanks, Neil.

Operator

The next question comes from Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler. Ryan, your line is now open.

Speaker 10

Good. Thanks. Maybe one for me, I guess on the refining side, you've made a lot of progress in terms of reducing cost structure, improving reliability and utilization rate and even improving capture rate in your refining business. But refining earnings are still struggling in the current environment. I know they're struggling for everybody.

Speaker 10

But as you we're clearly below mid cycle margins right now, but it still seems like you're a little ways from achieving your target for the refining business even in a mid cycle environment. I guess any thoughts on where do you think you are in terms of progress there? And what's still what should we still be looking for over the next 12 months, in order to drive that kind of the next leg of improvement in refining profitability?

Speaker 2

Yes, Ryan, this is Mark. I'll just comment at a high level that I do believe that we're still on that journey. We've pretty dramatically increased or enhanced our cost position, and we'll continue to do so. We are focused on being competitive and continuing that journey. And we've also been very deliberate in just working away at these small projects that have quick payouts that enhance our ability to capture the market.

Speaker 2

And we've got in our strategic priorities, we've got things that we see in 2025, things that we see happening by 2026. And so we've got a long list of things that we continue to work away at in refining to enhance our competitive position and increase our ability to capture value from the marketplace.

Speaker 7

Yes. So maybe I'll just

Speaker 4

add a

Speaker 7

little more color to that. This is Rich. So we had 3 primary improvement focuses in refining. First is the cost reduction and that's a slog, right? It's getting in the mud pit, digging it out and pulling out these expenses that are very sticky.

Speaker 7

It takes a lot of organizational effort to do that. I'm very happy with the organization's performance on this and we've exceeded our expectations, original expectations and now we've removed over $600,000,000 of cost out of the cost profile for refining. So we're not declaring infinite success with that. We will move to what I'll call a continuous improvement mode on the cost, but I will shift the organization's attention now to the earnings per barrel focus here as we move into the future. And that is taking advantage of what Mark was talking about, which is the small capital projects with high return.

Speaker 7

And we'll continue to execute those. We still have a laundry list of those projects to go. But there's also efforts that we utilize our existing equipment and making sure that we're extracting the highest level of value out of that. We see some opportunities across the system. We're going to focus on that and continue to extract that value out.

Speaker 7

And then of course, Brian's organization is working diligently. This integrated model that we have is really about extracting the value out of the entire value chain. And the commercial organization is the glue that keeps that together. And we've got a lot of number of initiatives that we're working on that front. You add all these, up, they're well over $1,000,000,000 of impact to our earnings at mid cycle pricing.

Speaker 7

So I'm very confident that when we get to mid back to mid cycle pricing scenarios that you'll see the performance of the refining organization hit the $4,000,000,000 to $5,000,000,000 range of earnings.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you. And then maybe one more. As we look at renewable diesel and we think about your the path to improvement there, can you maybe walk through how you think about the path to improvement in 2025, both in terms of the broader market? What are some of the levers or are you kind of moving pieces that you think drive improvement in terms of the macro backdrop?

Speaker 10

And then maybe Rodeo specifically, what are things that you're looking to do that will drive improvement in terms of the profitability there?

Speaker 9

Sure. This is Brian, Ryan. Maybe to start kind of where we are today, we're still in startup mode for the Renewables segment. So I think we've had some startup costs. We're also running higher or lower CI, but we're also running some higher CI now in Q4.

Speaker 9

I think if you think about renewable diesel margins going into Q4 and beyond, we think margins are going to strengthen for a number of reasons. Feedstock prices remain depressed. There are a number of plants that continue to struggle. Some of the RD production is going to be converted into renewable jet production like some of our competitors on the Gulf Coast and we will do as well. There were less imports into the U.

Speaker 9

S, tighter West Coast carb diesel market with refinery production issues. We've even seen some renewable diesel from our competitors come from the Gulf Coast into the West Coast. And then just the stronger credit markets with the tightening of those credit markets and the disincentivizing of biodiesel production. So all those things together, I think will drive renewable diesel margins stronger as we go forward.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Manav Gupta with UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker 11

Morning. I wanted to focus a little bit on your Central Corridor earnings. You were up $65,000,000 quarter over quarter or 26% quarter over quarter. That is something we haven't seen in the Mid Con region. It's a very strong result.

Speaker 11

Help us understand what were the factors helping you out. And we understand you have very good assets over there, but generally talk us what really helped you out to deliver such a strong performance in Central Corridor?

Speaker 7

Hey Manav, this is Rich. Thanks for pointing that out. We're very happy with the performance of the Central Corridor operation. There's a couple of factors here that played into the outperform. One of the margins were higher, which increased mainly due to a favorable impact on our inventory hedges.

Speaker 7

So with the WTI price falling quarter over quarter, that hedge was a positive tailwind for us on that. We also had the benefits of the WCS heavy crude diffs, which are included in our indicator, but that benefit was also seen in the Mid Con area as well. There was a 10% increase quarter over quarter in the cracks for the region. So we did see that positive move there. And we did see lower product differentials though as a result of that as well.

Speaker 7

Our secondary products also played into this tailwind for the quarter. We saw improved pricing in both the NGLs and the heavy intermediates. And this is all we all pulled this all together really with very good operating performance for the region. We had 100% crude utilization and 89% clean product yields, which are two very, very good performances by the assets.

Speaker 11

Perfect. My quick follow-up here is you are at $2,700,000,000 on asset sale of the $3,000,000,000 but you still have a marketing package out there in Europe. So how should we think about asset sale proceeds for the next 9 or 12 months?

Speaker 2

I think the way you should think about it Manav is we it's part of that portfolio optimization. It's ongoing. We've defined what we think are non core assets and I would say that that $3,000,000,000 was considered as a floor that we would hit. And we will continue to evaluate non core assets and move forward with any dispositions that we view as favorable for us.

Speaker 11

Perfect. So €3,000,000,000 was the floor, not the target. Sorry. Thank you.

Speaker 12

Thank you so much.

Operator

The next question comes from Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Matthew, please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Thank you and good morning. Your refining capture pulled up pretty well in the 3rd quarter at 92% versus 93% in Q2. Typically in the Q4, refiners see some tailwinds here, just from things like lower or sorry, higher butane blending volumes. Could you talk about your expectations for capture in the Q4? Do you think it's reasonable to expect a small improvement quarter over quarter?

Speaker 13

Or is

Speaker 5

it too early to say?

Speaker 1

I think it's too early to say. Matthew, just 1 month into the quarter, there's still opportunity for some volatility as we go through the end of the year.

Speaker 13

Sounds good. And then the West Coast seemed pretty challenging for Phillips and some of your peers in the Q3. I think the capture fell to 63% versus strong levels in Q2. You obviously made a decision to close the Los Angeles refinery. Could you talk about the headwinds in the Q3 in the West Coast and whether there's been any improvement so far in the Q4?

Speaker 7

Yes, this is Rich. I'll talk about some of the headwinds we saw in the West Coast. There's a lot of moving parts actually. So primarily we saw weaker market cracks and weaker feedstock advantages. So those were both the keys to driving lower earnings in that region.

Speaker 7

Margins decreased with our West Coast indicator falling about 46%. So you saw that if you're tracking along on our indicator. Those were primarily driven by Portland and Los Angeles gasoline cracks. Crude deliveries also played into this as well. There was a prior month injection of crude delivered by pipeline coming out of the North from Canada.

Speaker 7

And in a declining price environment, we also see an impact in that as well versus the benchmark. Secondary product impacts primarily related to heavy intermediate drawdown of inventory. In the Q2, we built heavy intermediate inventories as a result of maintenance activity at both Los Angeles and Ferndale. And then the drawdown actually occurred in the Q3 and that happened to occur in a declining price environment as well impacting the market capture. We are also experiencing some continuing costs associated with the wind down of the Rodeo crude operation.

Speaker 7

Don't want to forget about that. We expect the majority of this work to be complete by year end as we prepare a number of the assets for demolition. The demolition costs are currently reserved in our ARO, but that cost to prepare for that demolition is something that we'll see ongoing through the end of this year. And as Kevin indicated in his recap earlier, there was a couple of entries into the quarter that impacted earnings as well from the LAR announcement to idle operations. 1 was the accelerated depreciation that $25,000,000 in the quarter.

Speaker 7

The others was a special item of $41,000,000 recognizing some benefit obligations associated with that announcement. That all said, the assets actually operated well for the quarter. There's 93% clean product yield and a 94% crude utilization for the assets. So primarily market driven factors there.

Speaker 12

Great. Thanks for the color.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.

Speaker 14

I wanted to ask first on the refining business end. Back in the 2022 Analyst Day, there was some guidance for 5% margin capture improvement by 2025. And I think there was some kind of optimization across the portfolio involved in that and some discrete projects involved in that. It sounds like maybe those projects have been a bit delayed. I can't really tell.

Speaker 14

But how much has capture improved from 2022? Tough to compare given the change in indicator. And would you say you're on track with the projects that underpinned that capture improvement?

Speaker 7

Yes. This is Rich again. Short story is we're on track. And how that's all coming together is a series of small capital projects with high return. I mentioned those a little bit earlier.

Speaker 7

But in 2022 2023, we completed a series of projects, roughly 12 to 15 each year. And these are return projects, and assuming mid cycle pricing returned about 3% improvement in market capture associated with those projects. In 2024, we have additional 15 projects that we're executing right now and those projects will add about 2% of market capture to a mid cycle priced earnings profile. So add those all up to 3 years program on this, it comes up to the 5%. That 5% number is equivalent to essentially $400,000,000 of earnings at mid cycle pricing.

Speaker 7

So if we see that environment, I'm very confident that we will see that impact and that actually hit into the market capture numbers that we're seeing through the existing indicator and we'll have to go back and recreate a bridge to the traditional indicator.

Speaker 14

Okay, thanks. My follow-up question is going back to some of the commentary on distributions next year and the balance between deleveraging and buying back shares. There's a few targets out there in terms of debt. There's 25% to 30% of net debt to cap. There's $18,000,000,000 of net debt.

Speaker 14

What's kind of the preferred metric investors should look at to determine what the buyback capacity is next year? And how do you feel about the balance sheet going into next year given all the concern around the refining market environment? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. Jason, it's Kevin. Let me make a couple of comments on that. The leverage target is the 25% to 30% level, but we acknowledge that that may take a while to get there given the current environment and the absolute, not just debt level, but also it's debt and equity that drive that calculation. We also are looking at absolute debt at a sub $18,000,000,000 on a net debt basis.

Speaker 3

So we're at the end of the Q3, we were at an $18,000,000,000 net debt level and we'd like to be a little bit lower than that. We do think that we're going to have a fair amount of flexibility going into next year because while the refining environment is weaker than we would like, the other businesses are performing very well. We have the broader portfolio and you're seeing the benefits of that. And we also have some healthy cash that will become available through the asset dispositions. So while we've announced 2.7, less than half of that has actually been realized at this point in time.

Speaker 3

So we've got a fair amount still to come in and there's other transactions that we're working on. So I think we'll still have a lot of flexibility to be able to meet our cash return objectives and make progress on the balance sheet, which as you know is one of our strategic priorities as well.

Speaker 14

Great. Thanks for that color.

Operator

Our next question comes from Doug Leggate with Wolfe Research. Doug, please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Mark, I don't know if you want to take this one, but if you go back and look at the targets you laid out back in 2022, The disposal program, I guess, the acquisition of BCP wasn't in there either, but the disposal program was not explicit in your EBITDA targets. Can you give us some idea, I'm guessing it's a small number, but what the EBITDA loss is from the $2,700,000,000 of disposals so far?

Speaker 2

Yes. No, thanks for mentioning that, Doug. As we step back and look at our earnings capacity at mid cycle projection at $14,000,000,000 by the end of 2025, we also recognize that there's parts that are moving in and out of the portfolio. And where we're landing is sometime early next year, we're going to look at the gives and takes puts and takes around that number and we'll come out with a revised mid cycle earnings capacity and just recognizing that that number is not a projection of our earnings in 2025, but really our mid cycle earnings capacity in 2025 and we'll be updating everyone on that.

Speaker 5

You can put a number around the $2,700,000,000 at this point?

Speaker 2

We're not prepared to do that right now. We'll revise that early next year.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you. And I guess my follow-up is actually related to that $14,000,000,000 I want to make sure that we don't misspeak about that. I've been a target for $25,000,000 is obviously a mid cycle capacity as you pointed out. But embedded in there is a little over €5,000,000,000 of refining at mid cycle.

Speaker 5

And you've obviously you've been in the press and quite vocal about your view of what the capacity puts and takes are globally for the industry. And I'm just curious when you think maybe we need to wait until next year, but if you think forward about what you had historically seen as mid cycle, what some of us thought might be a better mid cycle, that's obviously been kiboshed by the last couple of quarters obviously. But are you I guess, I'm curious whether you think there is still a case for a higher mid cycle or whether we are battling to hold on to what was the last 10 years as our mid cycle average?

Speaker 2

Well, certainly a lot has changed in the last 10 years and I think part of our review is we will have to step back and see what has happened in mid cycle with respect to inflation inside the crack spreads, where all that comes down. I think it's very different than it was 10 years ago, but we do see enhanced strength in our ability to capture value in our refining assets and we believe in the long list of things that Rich has talked about and the combination of creating more integration value, our ability of our commercial group to capture more value from the marketplace and and a different posture around how we trade around our assets has significantly enhanced our mid cycle earnings capability in refining. And if you look at 2025, yes, we don't believe that we'll be at mid cycle in 2025, but we also believe that going forward beyond 2025 that we're going to see global demand growth that will exceed the net impact of capacity additions and rationalizations and you're seeing more rationalization announcements coming at us and very little beyond the 2 big refineries that are coming on now, very little capacity addition beyond 2025.

Speaker 2

And so we've got a fairly bullish outlook in the medium term.

Speaker 5

Appreciate your comments, Mark. We'll look forward to that update. Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Doug.

Operator

The next question comes from Theresa Chen with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. First, on the cost side for the chem business, with ethane in contango due to natural gas being into contango also perhaps because we have incremental residue capacity coming out of the Permian, allowing for the option to project into 2025. How do you see that impacting chem margins from a macro perspective through 2025? And related to that, just given your processing footprint and your option to project or extract ethane, at least some of your volumes, could that maybe a way to bolster earnings across the integrated value chain midstream and chem in a way that competitors cannot?

Speaker 16

Hi Theresa, this is Don. I think from an ethane standpoint as it relates to CPChem, I think the advantage of ethane will continue to be there near term and long term. So I feel good about that outlook and how that will continue to be beneficial for CEP Chem's position in the chemical market. With regard to our assets and how we think about it, we do have obviously with our gas processing assets, a lot of flexibility in terms of ethane recovery and rejection and we make those decisions on a day by day basis based on market conditions and what our downstream infrastructure is associated with those assets and how to maximize both the throughput as well as the profitability as we push those barrels downstream. So we think we've got as an integrated player a really good play kit to utilize and optimize across that gas to ethane and then ethane as a feedstock into the petchem industry.

Speaker 16

So we think it's going to be an opportunity set that we'll be able to execute on here in the near term as well as on down to the future.

Speaker 15

Got it. And turning to the residue side in the Permian, I'd love to get a sense of how you view your exposure there. And you've sold a gas transmission asset outside of the Permian. Do you view your interest in GCX as core to your business, keeping in mind that the 2 other interests in GCX have consistently transacted with a double digit multiple and the pipe also recently FID an expansion that's going to cost nearly $500,000,000 on 100% basis. Is that the best use of your capital?

Speaker 15

Love to hear your thoughts there.

Speaker 16

Well, first, I'd say we are very excited to see the customer support behind the GCX expansion. We do think that's a big vote of confidence as to the productivity and the outlook of volume growth in the Permian, which obviously we're beneficiary of given our footprint there. And we are an active participant in the residue gas marketing space and moving gas out of that basin. So we're pleased with where things situate from that standpoint. And then I may probably just reiterate what Mark had said.

Speaker 16

I mean, we regularly evaluate our portfolio and look for opportunities to high grade where it makes sense. We think that's just the right way to ensure our capital is allocated to the best opportunities. So it'll just be part of in terms of our GCX interest. It'll be no different than the other assets in our portfolio. We'll continually evaluate and make a decision when the time and the opportunities make sense.

Speaker 15

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank. Paul, please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker 12

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Speaker 8

Good morning, Paul.

Speaker 7

I think

Speaker 12

the first question is good morning, Mark. The first question is for Kelvin. I think in the past, you have talked about a RMB 4,000,000,000 to RMB 5,000,000,000 on the cash balance. I don't know whether that is still the longer term objective. And also I'm just curious that given the volatility in the market we are seeing and you're today you already saying that the debt level is a bit higher than what you prefer in the longer term.

Speaker 12

Should we still paying out more than 50% of the cash flow or that at least we should say maybe the payout will be lesser for the after you finish the RMB 13,000,000,000 to RMB 15,000,000,000 of the commitment? So that's the first question. The second question is for Rich. You mentioned the Central Corridor, you benefit from the WTI hedges. I presume you are not referring to the CMI, the CMA, you are actually physical derivative that you get into.

Speaker 12

Is that just you need for your central corridor operation or that you're doing at the top hedges in the rest of your operation? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. Paul, it's Kevin. I'll hit your first question. I think the $4,000,000,000 to $5,000,000,000 it sounds like one of our competitors uses that number for cash. We've said $2,000,000,000 to $3,000,000,000 as our sort of ideal cash level, which gives us adequate flexibility.

Speaker 3

And of course, we've also got plenty of other liquidity available to us. So $2,000,000,000 to $3,000,000,000 is the number that we've been saying in terms of cash balance. And as you can see, we were slightly lower than that at the end of the Q3. On a go forward basis, on cash returns, 50% still feels pretty reasonable as an objective, 50% or more. The dividend is $2,000,000,000 and so that's while in theory that's there's flexibility on that, that's not how we think about it.

Speaker 3

Let's say we view that as a very much a commitment. And the 50% still leaves adequate room for the other things we want to accomplish. I would also emphasize that we continue to be very disciplined around our capital program, our growth capital. So back 2 years ago, we said for the next couple of years, 2022 and 2023, we'd have a 2,000,000,000 dollars capital budget. While we haven't laid out our capital budget for 2025 yet, we expect that we'll we're going to continue to have that discipline around how we make those decisions.

Speaker 3

So I think when you put all that together, the 50% is still a reasonable number.

Speaker 9

Paul, this is Brian. Just on the accounting, for GAAP accounting, you have to mark your hedges and you don't mark your physical until it's sold or moved. And so in a falling market, the hedges make money and the physical doesn't get marked. So that will get marked in the following quarter.

Speaker 12

Yes. But Brian, is it only for the central corridor that you have that or that in other business or in other region you also have hedges?

Speaker 9

Yes. We have in all regions.

Speaker 12

So you have it in all regions.

Speaker 3

It's just much more significant.

Speaker 7

Correct. The volumes are Yes. And there was a big move on WTI on this last.

Speaker 12

So yes, only the WTI you hedges?

Speaker 9

Yes. We generally hedge with WTI crude, correct.

Speaker 12

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker 17

Hi. I believe that the enterprise TW products pipeline has started up to PADD IV. Are you seeing that impact in PADD IV margins yet?

Speaker 9

No, not yet.

Speaker 17

Okay. And then my follow-up is, I think you kind of referenced this in the comments, but LPG export ARPS have gotten extremely wide as I'm sure that you're aware. And I think they're expected to stay that way for a few quarters until more export capacity comes online. How much exposure does PSX have to the ARB? And does that increase over the next few quarters?

Speaker 16

Yes, this is Don. Thanks, Jean Ann. At Freeport, we are experiencing strong demand for LPGs. And I would just say we have a portfolio mix of short and long term contracts there at Freeport as well as really across our whole NGL value chain. So This portfolio approach, it lets us capitalize on opportunities like we see today across the system.

Speaker 16

It helps navigate where at any point in time across the NGL value chain, you have some positives from a margin standpoint and some headwinds. So it really helps kind of level out across that value chain, but we are seeing real positive healthy dock fees given the spread today to international markets, the ample supply of vessels and then just a tight existing dock capacity across the Gulf Coast. We'll get a share of that and we believe it's a pretty healthy outlook as you mentioned for the foreseeable quarters.

Speaker 17

Great. I'll leave it there. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 12

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Joe Lache with Morgan Stanley. Joe, please go ahead.

Speaker 18

Hey, good morning team and thanks for taking my questions. So on the macro side, thanks for your comments earlier on the supply outlook. Could you just talk to what you're seeing on the demand side for gasoline, diesel and jet within your system as well as your outlook from here?

Speaker 9

Sure. Hey, this is Brian. Starting with gasoline, global gasoline year to date, we're seeing about 1% higher than 23. European demand is a bright spot with sales of gasoline powered and gasoline hybrid vehicles supporting higher growth in 3Q versus prior 3Q, about 4% up. U.

Speaker 9

S. Demand performed well too, growing over 1%, 3Q to former 3Q. Part of that is the retail prices that were falling considerably with the spot prices. On distillate, year to date distillate global demand was about 1.5% lower. In the U.

Speaker 9

S, we saw in 3Q about 2% lower than 3Q. We're seeing some cautiously optimistic comments from some of the freight companies. UPS, for instance, came out last week and reported positive revenue and profit growth in the 3rd quarter, which followed nearly 2 years of subpar performance. Also in the global container business, the global container volumes were up. In fact, in August, it hit a record high.

Speaker 9

So seeing some positive signs there. Jet year to date global jet demand is about 8.5% higher than 23%, driven largely by Asia. Europe and U. S. Flight demand is back to 2019 levels, but jet demand isn't quite back to those levels mostly because of the aircraft efficiency and the fleet.

Speaker 18

Great. Thank you. And then just shifting to renewables, some peers have talked about seeing a premium for SAF over RG. What are you seeing from a commercial demand standpoint for SAF at RIDEO?

Speaker 9

Yes. We also see a premium for renewable jet production. I'll caution that in Q4, we're likely not to produce renewable jet. We're currently running off higher CI feedstocks for the plant as we prepare for the production tax credit next year. But we expect to be in steady state at renewable diesel renewable complex by Q1 of next year.

Speaker 9

And so by then you should see us producing renewable jet.

Speaker 18

Great. Thank you all.

Speaker 7

Yes. Maybe just to add a little bit to that color there. We did actually produce sustainable aviation fuel in September. So we have in the past indicated that that was our intention. We did successfully produce the sustainable aviation fuel.

Speaker 7

There's this market anomaly that Brian's talking about here in the Q4 that will limit that production, but we will fully intend to be a supplier of sustainable aviation fuel to the marketplace.

Operator

This concludes the question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Mark Lascher for closing comments.

Speaker 2

Thanks for all your questions. We delivered strong performance across our differentiated downstream portfolio. Business transformation achieved $1,400,000,000 of run rate cost reductions and lowered our refining cost by $1 per barrel. Midstream achieved its synergy target and provides stable earnings with attractive growth opportunities. We expect to exceed our $3,000,000,000 asset disposition target having signed agreements to generate $2,700,000,000 in proceeds to date.

Speaker 2

We continue to evaluate assets as part of our ongoing portfolio optimization. I'm proud of our employees' significant achievements toward our commitments. We're confident in our strategy and continued execution on the remaining targets. Thank you for your interest in Phillips 66. If you have questions after today's call, please call Jeff or Owen.

Operator

Thank you everyone for joining us today. This concludes our call and you may now disconnect your lines.

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Key Takeaways

  • Achieved $1.4 billion in business transformation cost reductions ahead of schedule, including eliminating $1 per barrel of refining costs and capturing $400 million of NGL synergies from the DCP integration.
  • Returned $12.5 billion to shareholders via dividends and buybacks since July 2022, nearing the $13–15 billion commitment, with future cash flows prioritized for sustaining capital, dividends, buybacks and debt reduction.
  • On track to exceed the $3 billion asset disposition target after agreeing to sell its 49% Swiss retail JV for ≈$1.24 billion, with proceeds earmarked for shareholder returns and debt paydown.
  • Midstream adjusted EBITDA rose to $3.7 billion on a trailing-12-month basis, driven by organic growth, the Pinnacle Midstream acquisition and Sweeny hub expansion, delivering stable cash flow that covers dividends and sustaining capex.
  • Announced idling of its Los Angeles refinery by Q4 2025 due to declining California demand, feedstock challenges and regulatory costs, with an expected $230 million quarterly depreciation charge through shutdown.
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Earnings Conference Call
Phillips 66 Q3 2024
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