Telefonica Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 7, 2024

Key Takeaways

  • We accelerated free cash flow growth by nearly 90% in Q3 2024 and 28% year-to-date, already exceeding our >10% target for the full year.
  • We expanded 5G coverage to 71% and passed 82 million premises with fiber to the home, reaching our 2026 network leadership targets over two years ahead of schedule.
  • In Spain, we achieved the best net adds in six years with record-low churn (0.8%) and maintained ARPU above €90, reflecting the strength of our value-based pricing and network quality.
  • In Brazil, revenue rose 7.1% in local currency, driven by mobile service growth, fiber roll-out and digital services, with very low churn and a concession-to-authorization migration expected to complete in Q4 2024.
  • We reaffirmed our full-year 2024 guidance despite FX headwinds, supported by a robust natural hedging strategy that safeguards our free cash flow and balance sheet.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Telefonica Q3 2024
00:00 / 00:00

There are 11 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Telefonica's January September 2024 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded.

Operator

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Adrianson Tunegi, Global Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and welcome to Telefonica's conference call to discuss January September 2024 results. I'm Adrian Fonthuneghi from Investor Relations. Before proceeding, let me mention that the financial information contained in this document has been prepared under International Financial Reporting Standards as adopted by the European Union. This financial information is unaudited. This conference call and webcast, including the Q and A session, may contain forward looking statements and information relating to the Telefonica Group.

Speaker 1

These statements may include financial or operating forecasts and estimates or statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations regarding different matters. All forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause the final developments and results to materially differ from those expressed or implied by such statements. We encourage you to review our publicly available disclosure documents filed with the relevant securities market regulators. If you don't have a copy of the relevant press release and the slides, please contact Telefonica's Investor Relations team in Madrid or London. Now let me turn the call over to our Chief Operating Officer, Mr.

Speaker 1

Angel Villas.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Adrian. Good morning, and welcome to Telefonica's 3rd quarter results conference call. With me today are Laura Abasolo, Marcos Jaz, Lutz Schuler and Eduardo Navarro. Before going into the results presentation, we would like to express our condolences to the families of big teams of recent flash floods in Spain. And our gratitude to Telefonica teams who are working 20 fourseven to restore communications to all those affected.

Speaker 2

God bless them all. Now let us first walk you through the slides and we'll then be happy to take any questions. We are pleased to report solid Q3 results that prove strong operating and strategic progress. Across our key markets, underlying performance remains strong. Spain delivered the best net adds in 6 years with record low churn.

Speaker 2

And Brazil sustained its growth momentum across all key metrics in local currency. One of the quarter's key highlights is the acceleration of free cash flow, growing by close to 90% in Q3 and 28% in 9 months and is already above our target of more than 10% growth for the year. Beyond expected backloaded phasing, our free cash flow benefited from our industry leading CapEx intensity of 12% up to September, reflecting optimized investments and enhanced operating leverage. We invest more efficiently. We continue deploying next generation networks at pace with 5 gs coverage in our core markets, reaching 71% and fiber to the home expanding to 82,000,000 premises passed.

Speaker 2

Importantly, we made significant progress on near term catalysts across our core markets. In Spain, we strengthened wholesale visibility through today's announced definitive fiber co agreement with Vodafone Segona and the long term fiber to the home IRU signed with Maserange. Brazil's migration to the authorization model is expected to complete in Q4. In Germany, we enhanced our wholesale position via the Lebara contract renewal and new like agreement, while expecting Vereza's update on details of the spectrum extension in early 2025. And in the UK, Netco continues to progress well, supporting our fiber strategy.

Speaker 2

Finally, we remain confident in achieving our financial outlook for the full year 2024 despite FX headwinds. Going into greater detail on the next slide, we continue to build a stronger Telefonica through network leadership, customer centricity and operational excellence. We accelerated our fiber to the home rollout with 2,700,000 premises in the quarter, while our 5 gs coverage expanded by 6 percentage points in the last 3 months, achieving our 2026 target more than 2 years ahead of schedule. These milestones strengthen our network leadership, while capital efficiency improves supported by AI driven solutions. On Open Gateway, we continue making progress on industry collaboration.

Speaker 2

The API new co venture will greatly simplify the process for telcos worldwide to expose their network APIs, enabling seamless integration with hyperscalers and developer platforms through a single connection point. Our customers, their experience and satisfaction remains a priority and AI is further improving this. Our recent investment and commercial partnership with Perplexity will further improve customer service across our markets, driving cost efficiencies, productivity gains and faster resolutions. This quarter, we added 1,000,000 accesses to reach 393,000,000, while achieving a record NPS of 34. Operational simplification and asset optimization remain key priorities.

Speaker 2

In Spain, we've closed approximately 8,000 central offices and remain on track to complete our corporate network shutdown. We continue scaling AI across the business, having prioritized 6 key use case clusters. Meanwhile, in Hispam, we are executing on our strategy as evidenced by the non binding MOU with Millicom in Colombia. On Slide 4, our underlying performance remains strong with all 3 core units showing local currency growth in Q3 in line or above what's seen in the first half of the year. This proves that our core business momentum continues.

Speaker 2

Reported figures were impacted by FX headwinds, particularly from the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the euro, reducing revenue growth by 4.2 percentage points and EBITDA growth by 4.7 percentage points. Nevertheless, 9 months EBITAL minus CapEx growth stands above our 20, 24 guided range in reported terms despite FX headwinds, demonstrating the strength of our operating model. And most importantly, our free cash flow grew significantly year on year in both Q3 9 months, largely protected from currency volatility through natural hedging strategy. Moving to Slide 5, underlying revenue growth has been solid, reflecting strong commercial traction and is underpinned by the increase in high value accesses, especially fiber. At the same time, we continue to see strong demand on B2B with IT services seeing double digit growth.

Speaker 2

Profitability remains a focus. Operating leverage improved versus Q3 2023 as CapEx declined 6.3%, driven by legacy network switch offs, AI implementation and other digital transformation initiatives. These efforts among others continue supporting our margins. On sustainability, our free cash flow trends continue to strengthen, growing at a pace that reinforces our confidence in achieving our target of more than 10% growth for the full year. On Slide 6, we review the positive performance of the KPIs and financials at Telefonica Spain.

Speaker 2

Q3 marked an excellent commercial quarter with the best net adds in 6 years and all accesses showing year on year growth. Telefonica Spain continued to excel in a competitive market, leveraging its superior quality and customer service and achieved the lowest churn level in a decade and the best ever NPS. Our focus remains on protecting our high value convergent customer base with a balanced combination of churn and ARPU. We believe that a rational approach is the right strategy to sustain revenue growth. Revenue growth continued in Q3, in line with prior quarters, while EBITDA growth improved up to 1% year on year on the back of further transformation efficiencies.

Speaker 2

This EBITDA growth together with a quarter on quarter stabilization of leases translated into a further visible sequential improvement in EBITDA that stabilized year on year in Q3 already. Finally, let me highlight 2 relevant topics that enhance our business sustainability. We are pleased with the recent success in the wholesale business. Leveraging our superior network quality and expertise, we extended all existing agreements and incorporated new ones with rational and value accretive terms. Hence, our wholesale business is secured for the long term and we have further visibility and stability in the overall market.

Speaker 2

And for the future, we believe that the ongoing deregulation process is creating new opportunities in the Spanish market. Telefonica Brasil continued to enhance customer value, driven by a robust expansion of its contract access base and fiber connections, which support ARPU growth and keep churn rates very low. To highlight that we have the largest network across LatAm. Revenue increased by 7.1% in local currency, boosted by the strong performance of mobile service revenue, the growth in fiber to the home and the ongoing expansion of digital services. Despite the higher contribution from digital services, both EBITDA and EBITDA minus CapEx margins showed year on year increases of 0.2percent2.1percentagepoints, respectively.

Speaker 2

Finally, we remain very optimistic about the migration from a concession to an authorization with a final agreement expected in Q4 2024 as mentioned before. Our German operations maintained strong momentum in Q3 with consistent growth in contract net adds quarter on quarter and low O2 contract churn of 1%, reflecting our brand appeal and network quality. On the network front, 5 gs population coverage reached 97%, with 5 gs plus celebrating its 1st anniversary and the O2 network was rated excellent in the latest smartphone magazine test. We further strengthened our position with the relaunch of O2 TV and adaptive simplification, reinforcing our value for money leadership. We also strengthened our B2B positioning, refilling freed up network capacity through the renewal of contracts with Freenet, Lebara and a new agreement with Leica.

Speaker 2

Financially, revenue faced headwinds due to MTR reductions and the shift in the 1 on 1 business model, with revenue declining by 1.6% year on year in Q3. However, sustained EBITDA growth of 3% year on year was achieved through focused execution of the Accelerated Growth and Efficiency Plan and disciplined cost management. Moving to Slide 9 to review our UK operations at VM02. In Q3, we remain committed to our strategy to invest in our foundations and key drivers for future growth. We returned to fixed line customer growth in Q3, adding 16,000 broadband customers and at the same time fixed ARPU increased by 2.2% year on year.

Speaker 2

In our wireless business, O2 mobile contract churn improved to 1.1%. Furthermore, fiber deployment has significantly accelerated with a notable 44% year on year increase in our build rate in the 1st 9 months of 2024. We also established a new long term partnership with Cellnex UK to provide our infrastructure and associated services and monetized a further 8% stake in CTIL while returning co control. Regarding financials, revenue fell by 0.7% year on year in Q3, mainly affected by hardware weakness. Despite this, we have achieved stable combined consumer fixed and mobile revenue excluding handsets.

Speaker 2

EBITDA also decreased by 2.7% year on year due to ongoing investments in IT and Next Fiber initiatives. Telefonica Tech on Slide 10 continues to show steady progress. Tech is a crucial growth driver for our B2B business. Tech in the last 12 months reached €2,000,000,000 revenues, a 12% annual increase. Both funnel and bookings show an even higher growth rate and revenue, which gives us a very good visibility of the future business.

Speaker 2

Q3 bookings increased 40% year on year, mostly driven by large contracts from the private sector awarded from financial, health care and manufacturing customers. Solid commercial activities increasing the backlog of higher value contracts, which will bring more recurrent services and revenue flows in the future, enhancing the sustainability of the business. The ongoing improvement is not only evident in the visibility of the tech business, but also in our revenue mix, with a stronger contribution from managed and professional services and owned platforms and a higher weight of hard currency revenue, already 87% of revenue in 9 months of 2024. With all these positive developments, we remain optimistic for the future. Telefonica and Infra on Slide 11 continues to drive growth and accelerate digital inclusion through the efficient deployment of next generation infrastructure.

Speaker 2

Epti rollout by fiber costs progressed at pace, having passed more than 1,000,000 premises in the quarter to 24,000,000, advancing well to the target of around EUR 30,000,000 in 2026. In Germany, UGE reached an agreement to acquire InfraFiber Germany, strengthening UGE's position as a fiber infrastructure provider throughout selected rural areas and accelerating the planned expansion to 2,000,000 premises passed. Telxius, our global connectivity provider, maintained a double digit growth rate in traffic and a high profitability level of close to 50% in the 1st 9 months of the year. I will now hand it over to Laura, who will guide you through Hispam performance, the main financial situation and ESG topics.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Angel. We are continuously working to try and build a more rational environment in Isban, reducing network overlap and use of invested capital more efficiently. Additionally, we are exploring potentials opportunity for in market consolidation and we will keep you updated on any developments. Q3 2024 results are impacted by the depreciation of the Mexican and Chilean peso among other currencies and a strong competition in Chile and Peru. In the latter, where we saw a sequential deterioration, reported results are hit by a EUR 314,000,000 non cash impairment charge.

Speaker 3

Despite these challenges, Q3 2024 EBITDA minus CapEx remained virtually flat compared to Q3 2024 in reported terms, thanks to a reduction in leases expenses and CapEx. Moving on to free cash flow on Slide 13. As anticipated, our free cash flow generation showed significant momentum in Q3, delivering levels 4 times higher than the 2nd quarter. These accelerations follows a typical seasonal pattern and has driven 9 months growth to 27.7% year on year. Importantly, this performance is enabled by our hedging strategy implemented at the beginning of each year to protect the majority of our free cash flow, which ultimately drives shareholder remuneration.

Speaker 3

This puts us in a strong position and gives us confidence in delivering both our 2024 target and our broader 23 to 20 26 ambitions. As of September 2024, net financial debt declined by roughly EUR 0.5 €29,200,000,000 in June 24 to €28,700,000,000 in September 24, mainly due to the solid free cash flow generation in the quarter. Net debt to EBITDA was slightly reduced from 2.78 times to 2.76 times as of September 24 and is expected to be partly reduced towards year end. We are committed to reduce leverage and remain on track to meet our targets. Additionally, we will receive the proceeds from the sale of the stake in CTIL.

Speaker 3

Meanwhile, Telefonica maintains a solid liquidity position of €19,900,000,000 that together with a light maturity profile allows us to cover 10 maturities over the next 3 years, as debt is nearly 75% linked to fixed rates with an average life of close to 11 years, which place us in a comfortable position to face any market environment. Furthermore, we lowered our debt related interest cost to 3.61% versus 3.80% in December last year, thanks to the active refinancing exercise undertaken in previous years, the robust position at fixed interest rates in strong currencies and lower interest rates in Brazilian real. This quarter, Telefonica continued to make solid progress in ESG. To show how we are decarbonizing the economy, we have published a new report quantifying how our B2C customers avoid emissions, thanks to our services. On the supply chain side, we have led an ambitious initiative within the sector to train suppliers on lowering emissions.

Speaker 3

On gender diversity, we are progressing well. Just over 1 third of our executives are now women. Meanwhile, we are addressing the needs of B2B customers who require sustainability reference with Ecovaris ranking us in the 99th percentile of all companies assessed. And finally, on the governance side, we have been recognized for our reporting and transparency, and we continue to lead the way in ethical AI as active participants in the development of the European Code of Practice. I will now hand back to Angel, who will wrap up.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Laura. On our guidance, we are on track to achieve our full year 2024 targets despite FX headwinds impacting our reported revenue and EBITDA figures. Our underlying business performance remains strong. We are controlling the controllables, and our free cash flow is well protected from FX volatility through effective hedging. This is evident in our 9 months results, while EBITAL minus CapEx and free cash flow already trending above targeted ranges, while CapEx to sales remains fully aligned with guidance.

Speaker 2

Moreover, using our guidance FX assumptions, 9 months results could be well within our guidance with more than 1% EBITDA growth and more than 2% EBITDA minus CapEx growth. Our robust free cash flow generation continues supporting our deleveraging trajectory towards our 2026 target range. While currency fluctuations may create short term volatility in reported figures, our 9 month performance and strategic execution reinforce our confidence in both our 2024 targets and the 2023, 2026 plan. To wrap up on Slide 17, first, we delivered 1 more quarter of solid business momentum across our core markets. 2nd, the significant acceleration in free cash flow this quarter reinforces our confidence in delivering 24% and 2023%, 2026 targets of more than 10% growth.

Speaker 2

3rd, our natural hedging strategy effectively protects our free cash flow from currency fluctuations. 4th, our strategic investments in fiber and 5 gs infrastructure continue driving premium customer experience and satisfaction. 5th, we maintain disciplined balance sheet management and capital allocation, focused on meeting targets, sustaining our dividend and investing in key growth areas. And finally, we see clear catalysts ahead, particularly the authorization model in Brazil and increasing market rationalization in Europe through deregulation and reduced fragmentation. Thank you very much for listening.

Speaker 2

We are now ready to take your questions. Thank

Operator

We will now take the first question from the line of Andre Kavijes from UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for the presentation and congratulations on the results. I've got maybe 2 questions that are kind of related, I would say. If we look at Spain, you're obviously posting very good KPIs in terms of net adds that are accelerating. Your churn is decreasing.

Speaker 4

There has been this year a bit of a dilution to your convergent ARPU. So I was just thinking if you can maybe reflect on all the changes that we've seen in competition throughout this year from the merger to the latest kind of rounds of back to school promotions by Zogona and then the recent price cuts that Digi did, like how

Speaker 5

is the market shaping up over the

Speaker 4

past 3, 4 quarters in price cuts where they followed the closing of the deal that you presented last quarter. So is there any relation? And then how do you think that kind of competition in the lower end would unfold from here? Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you for these questions on Spain. On the competitive environment and dynamics recently, we are seeing some players repositioning their products and strategy, which is creating maybe some more commercial intensity, but mainly in the low end. We believe that the market continues to be segmented and rational. We had soft summer campaigns. Market portability was very much reduced with clear winners and losers, and we were between those winners and low market churn levels.

Speaker 2

Portability has been the lowest in 10 years if we accept, of course, the 2020 pandemic lockdown. And we should not forget that all players implemented price increases this year. And yes, there is some intensity in the low end, but we maintain a rational approach with value based services, best in class infrastructures, which allow us to show very consistent performance in all the KPIs. As you have seen, we have net adds in all the main services. Now it's the 5th quarter in a row of growth, best net adds and portability in 6 years.

Speaker 2

We have the best churn in a decade. It's 0.8%. If you combine this with the ARPU, which remains above EUR 90, we have stronger customer lifetime value, which is around double our closest follower. The ARPU evolution, yes, in the year on year has a decrease of 0.4%, but this is due to a larger O2 penetration. And but it remains very consistently above €90 and it's differential with respect to our competitors.

Speaker 2

We believe that one needs to look at all these KPIs altogether. And this results, as I was saying before, in the strongest value of our customer base compared to any of our competitors. Regarding Digi, we signed, as you know, with them the combination of roaming and network sharing agreement. This is Palio creating. It's an agreement for the next 16 years.

Speaker 2

The revenues of this contractor going to be at least at the same level of the existing roaming contract that we have. And this sharing will be progressively implemented when Digi has full ownership of the spectrum that they will get from Orange.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Angel. Can I maybe follow-up on the Digi? So as you mentioned, you were expecting or you're saying that the contract to you is actually value enhancing. So were you surprised at all about the fact that a couple of maybe weeks or months later, Digi again cut prices? And what does this mean for the kind of composition in the market from their side?

Speaker 2

Well, in general, and this applies not only to the DG agreement, we have been very careful in renegotiating all the wholesale agreements that and the new ones in such a way that they bring rationality to the market and visibility to the market. We have been extremely careful not to create conditions in wholesale contracts that may create distortions. Spain is already a very competitive market, and there is full availability of wholesale offers to the different players. But we have been working at this on with the mentality of being very rational in the renegotiation of contracts. The DG contract is the roaming is structured around a scheme that depends on the number of subscribers and the consumption of traffic.

Speaker 2

And given the projections that we have, we feel comfortable on that. The rent sharing will depend on the number of shares eventually the sites that it will be eventually shared.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Benoit.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Mathieu Robilliard from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes, good morning and thank you for the presentation. I had a question about the guidance and how you qualify it. I understand that you say you have reiterated all the guidance despite the fact that there's a FX headwind. But at the same time, it seems to be a bit nuanced in the way you comment possibly for the EBITDA and the revenue growth for this year. So I just wanted to clarify if at this stage you still believe you could reach despite where the FX is the full year guidance for revenues or EBITDA and whether your level of confidence had remained stable or decreased a bit because of the FX?

Speaker 6

Sorry, it may seem a bit pedantic, but just wanted to make sure I understand exactly what you're saying there. And then the second question was about the German market, where clearly you're posting a strong performance. We've seen quite a few moves in the market, some initiated by competitors, some initiated by you. And I was wondering how you saw the competitive environment developing, both on mobile but also on fixed where we've seen some aggressive offers for high speed broadband. Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Matier, for the question on Gal Gadotans. Please let me emphasize that we are not quite qualifying or changing the guidance. As the capital days, we change our focus and guidance into reporting and current terms, and we aim to grow in euro terms. This applies, I remind you, only to revenue and EBITDA as free cash flow has always been in current terms. For that, obviously, we make our own FX assumptions and mild variations will not affect that.

Speaker 3

We are now in a moment that in the Q3, there was a more abrupt change in the Brazilian real with the depreciation year on year of more than 12%. And that can temporarily affect our headline reported growth. But we are really, really confident on the Brazilian operation. Let me remind you that Brazil is growing both in euro terms and even more in local currency. And in local currency, they are growing above 7%, both revenue and EBITDA, which is well above inflation, and that's the best way to compensate any FX changes.

Speaker 3

So we are really committed on coupon with a very strong underlying performance of our core business units, which is not only Brazil, as we saw in the presentation and in the first question, Spain's EBITDA growth is accelerating. There has been really strong commercial results and same for Germany. EBITDA continues growing lowtomidsingledigitinq3 and operating cash flow EBITDA minus CapEx is growing almost 8% year on year. I must admit that Spain remains Isban remains more volatile with less linear performance, particularly in Peru and Chile, but some countries are definitely doing better than others. But going to the guidance specifically question, based on our current FX assumptions for the year, we are fine with the guidance committed we say and that's why we have confirmed.

Speaker 3

It is true that we cannot speculate on potential FX moves. We have to see now the reaction to the U. S. Election. But again, what we need to protect is our free cash flow.

Speaker 3

Free cash flow is the focus. Free cash flow is much more hedged. The impact in free cash flow is minimal. 1st, because we have a natural hedge. 2nd, because we also do financial hedges and we are also having debt in local currencies, which is also helping on our debt to EBITDA ratio and in the solvency ratio.

Speaker 3

So very high level of confidence. We expect the core business units to keep on doing being in the same good line of direction for Q4. And based off our current FX, we definitely feel we can make the guidance.

Speaker 6

Thank you. If I may just to make sure I fully understood, so based on your current FX guidance, you believe that or rather not guidance, forecast, you believe that the guidance is safe. But are your assumptions for FX that, for instance, Brazil real trajectory would move in the more positive territory? Or is that based on what it is today and what do you think of the businesses on a local currency basis? Hopefully, that's clear.

Speaker 3

We have assumptions on the real, which could be similar to what we have today, but it definitely may vary and it also depends on the average. Of course. But as I said, it's very difficult to speculate on potential FX moves. So we will focus attention on the strength of the operations. We will focus attention on Brazilian growing both in local and euro trends, growing locally so strong, overperforming inflation with no doubt.

Speaker 3

And we'll put all our focus on the free cash flow. You have seen how strong has been in the 1st 9 months of the year regardless the FX moves. And let me remind you that the FX hedge we do for the Brazilian real is not flowing through free cash flow yet. It's flowing through P and L. But when we close the derivatives at year end, we will have all the compensation impact for Q4.

Speaker 3

So very, very focused on free cash flow, resilient free cash flow and resilient core business units.

Speaker 2

And in Germany, we have been simplifying and sharpening our portfolio to remain leaders in value for money. If Marcus, you could help me elaborate on this question.

Speaker 7

Thank you, Angel. Our Q3 performance has clearly shown that our focus on value for money and the segmentation of the market has delivered very strong commercial results. Also, the new portfolio that we launched yesterday shows that we focus on customers around the €30 up upper price point. This is all mobile service revenue accretive. So from that perspective, we fully focus on our value for money strategy, consequently, as in the past, and clearly believe in segmentation and value growth.

Speaker 7

On the fixed question that you raised, Telefonica Deutschland has access to all infrastructures in the German market. So we also have the possibility clearly to join promotional activities also on the cable networks in order to shift also volumes between technologies. And we clearly also have been able to show very strong fixed service revenue growth with the Q3 results.

Speaker 6

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Luigi Minerva from HSBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. Good morning. Thanks for taking my two questions. The first one is on tower leases and the potential opportunities in the Spanish market. I was referring to the press rumors about negotiations between Vodafone Spain and TOTEM, where Vodafone Spain is trying arguably to get better terms, perhaps getting out of anchor tenancy terms, switching towards secondary tenancy terms.

Speaker 5

So I was wondering if your agreement with American Tower can offer at some point some upside. And if I remember well, there is no all or nothing close at renewal of that of the current agreement with American Tower. So I'd be interested in hearing your views on that. Secondly, on one question on free cash flow, if I may. The reported one is 27% up year to date, well ahead of guidance of 10%.

Speaker 5

However, as usual in the Telefonica free cash flow, there are many moving parts. Some are organic, some are not. But particularly, I'm wondering if it's appropriate to keep the €298,000,000 of rural 5 gs subsidy in your free cash flow definition for what guidance matters? Because if I simply adjust the year to date free cash flow by those €298,000,000 you're actually down 10% year to date compared to 2023? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you for your questions. I'll take the first one on tower leases. We cannot comment on competitors' intentions to renegotiate their lease contracts with third parties. What I can say is that all our agreements with tower costs in Spain are flexible, allowing us to renegotiate and capture efficiencies. And we don't have in the name that you alluded to all or nothing closes.

Speaker 3

[SPEAKER JOSE MARIA ALVAREZ PALLETE:] Yes. On the free cash flow, yes, we did have a good performance. We said, as usual, we'll be backloaded in the year. So it's been very strong for the 1st 9 months, and it will be even more stronger for Q4. So we will hit the 10% guidance we provided.

Speaker 3

It's again bits and pieces. We have a delta of more than EUR 200,000,000 year on year and 1 third of that approximately comes from operating cash flow, EBITDA minus CapEx. Then if you go below working capital and I will talk specifically about the subsidies question you mentioned. Let me remind you that working capital is still negative, so we are still consuming, but it has a better year on year comparison. We also are benefiting from the lower leakage as we made the operation on Telefonica Deutschland.

Speaker 3

We also have financial payments that you see really, really control and even lower. And we remain working on the tax payments. There we have last year, we no, this year, we have the Peruvian tax payments and we also have the back and forward of the tax in advance in Spain that it also has some seasonality. But we are very happy with our free cash flow strong growth and we anticipate that growth to continue in Q4. Again, based on the continued momentum EBITDA, the solid operational rates, working capital should reverse and the continuous optimization on interest leases and tax payments.

Speaker 3

On the 5 year subsidies, this is working capital movement, no doubt, which happens not specifically this year. It's part of the rural deployment and part of the UNICO program. This is ultimately less CapEx. And it is true that it concentrates in certain times of the year. But if we talk about things, we last year, we also have the benefit of the judicial review of the Brazil in Brazil.

Speaker 3

And this year, we have nothing in that regard. So it's not just a matter of taking this out. So this, as I said, is another working capital element as many others. Working capital is seasonal. Every quarter has its ups and downs.

Speaker 3

We are still consuming. It will reverse. And this is very related to our operations. So again, we are very confident on the free cash flow for the year. I'm very satisfied with this year on year performance.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thanks for the color.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Fernando Cordero from Banco Santander. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hello. Good morning and thanks for taking my question. My question related with Telefonica Tech as far as the update on the top line performance. But I would like to understand as well how is the profitability of Telefonica Tech performing, particularly within the different services segments within Telefonica Tech, which are the ones that are performing strongly and which are the ones that are lagging right now? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Fernando. As you saw in the presentation, Telefonica Tech continues to be growing above comparables and above the growth rate of the group. It's a crucial growth driver that helps us to outperform in the B2B segment. The revenue growth had a slight slowdown in Q3 in the growth rate versus previous quarters for a reason of displacement of some projects because there are some seasonal fluctuations in revenues and share activities and also linked to the change of mix. We are getting into greater weight of more complex projects with more consulting and professional services elements, which on one hand have longer term of revenue conversion, but also will have a positive impact on the recurrence and predictability of the revenue.

Speaker 2

So we are moving into contracts that have more time to prepare and then start giving the operations, but then become recurrent and give us long visibility to the future. Bookings are very strong, in Q3 in particular, 40% of bookings. And with this change of mix of projects into more complexity, more value added, this is also improving the margins of and the profitability of Telefonica Tech, which is going in the direction that we want it to be in the severe plan. And we are progressing nicely towards the objective of reaching the target that we stated at the Capital Market Day of EUR 3,000,000,000 revenues by 20

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Keval Khiroya from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thank you for taking the questions. And I have 2, please. So firstly, your Q3 EBITDA grew 1%, but estimated fell 4% roughly excluding the account reduction benefit, which is a deterioration on last year. And what do you think are the main barriers to achieving a better EBITDA performance? And how do we think about the 2025 EBITDA trajectory in Spain?

Speaker 8

And then secondly, you've mentioned the IRU with Mass Orange. Will there be any upfront payments from Mass Orange as part of the agreement? And will you include that in your EBITDA and free cash flow? And will it count towards guidance? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Keval. On the EBITDA, first in Spain, it's growing 1% year on year in the Q3. We managed to get it into positive in the final quarter of last year. We guided for growth for the full 2024. And you saw in the Q1, it was growing 0.2%, the 2nd quarter, 0.6%.

Speaker 2

In the 3rd quarter, it's growing 1%, and this reflects revenue growth and efficiencies, including the redundancy plan and the copper switch off. This is improvement or acceleration in the growth rate is on the back of several moving parts. So on one hand, we have the additional revenue, some of them coming with lower margin. On the other hand, we have efficiencies coming from headcount resizing and utilization AI initiatives. We have on the other hand, because one could even expect a bit higher EBITDA growth, we have some elements that are not either are annualizing or no longer contributing to growth.

Speaker 2

So for instance, the energy prices that in part we are passing through to customers no longer help or drag in any direction. The price of the content that we are reselling in La Liga also have changed, but we had suppressions of fees like the one that we had to finance the TV in Spain. So all in all, lots of moving parts, but EBITDA for the Spanish operation to grow. And this, by the way, combined with the stabilization of leases is getting our EBITDA after leases into the positive territory, as we said, would be in the second half of the year. We already achieved that in Q3.

Speaker 2

On the contract regarding Orange, we cannot disclose this type of details. This was a contract that was signed in the month of August. The fiber network agreement replaces deals that we had independently with Torrance and with Mass Mobile. We are evolving this towards a single relationship on a full nationwide deal. And we have entered into new IRUs agreements.

Speaker 2

But there is some CPI indexation, but I cannot disclose more information because of confidentiality clauses in the agreement.

Speaker 8

That's understood. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of James Ratzer from New Street Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Yes, good morning. Thank you very much indeed for taking the questions. I have two questions, please. I suppose you had your Centennial celebration back in April of this year when the copper shutdown of the network was a big kind of milestone for you. So what I'd be interested in understanding is can you help us to give an update on how that process is going?

Speaker 9

How many exchanges have you now shut down? How much of the kind of cost savings from this have you already been able to achieve? And in particular then how much more could that still be to come over the next few years cost savings from the copper shutdown? And then secondly, just be interested to understand what's happening with your stake in Telefonica Brazil, because I noticed this quarter it's now gone up to 76.2%. So it's been gradually increasing over the year.

Speaker 9

Could you just explain what's going on there? And do you have some target here where you're trying to take your stake in the asset too? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you, James. I'll take the first question on the copper shutdown. We have already shut down all the retail copper. What we have still pending is with third parties that were whole buying copper from us. We need to have some switches.

Speaker 2

But we are leading the copper switch off in Europe. We have accomplished more than 90% of the shutdown of the copper network. Switching off is the right decision. This has brought us significant savings in terms of OpEx, but also of CapEx. This is allowing us to maintain EBITDA margins above 36%.

Speaker 2

That is quite consistent with what we have been having in the last year and all along this year. With respect to CapEx, our Spanish operation is already benchmark in terms of CapEx to revenues, and we committed in the Capital Markets Day to reach 10% CapEx over revenues intensity for the Spanish operation, which would be leading in Europe. We are we have behind us the 2 waves of CapEx that come with fiber migration. 1 is passing and the other one is connecting. We see other players that still need to do the wave of passing, some others need to do the wave also of connecting.

Speaker 2

We have both waves behind us. So this allows us to be efficient in terms of energy consumption, in terms of maintenance, in terms of CapEx. And therefore, we were able to commit and we are on track to this CapEx intensity reduction in the Spanish operation.

Speaker 9

That's clear. Thank you. Do you have any idea of what the kind of still the incremental EBITDA margin upside might be just from the copper shutdown that's still to come?

Speaker 2

Well, we don't guide on CapEx margins per OB and we don't guide forward looking CapEx margins per OB. But you should expect us to stay on these levels and on a downward trend on CapEx intensity, which we have been very public about.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Hello. The increase in the stake of Brazil is a consequence of the survey back that Brazil is undertaking. They have recently increased from BRL 1,000,000,000 to BRL 1,500,000,000 and share buyback has become part of the remuneration scheme of Telefonica Brazil. They do a combination of interest on capital, dividends, capital reduction and share buyback. So that's the result of them doing that and automatically our participation in Brazil increases.

Speaker 9

But is that Laura that's a conscious decision to not participate pro rata to your stake. So do you expect that to continue and therefore your stake will continue to rise?

Speaker 3

Say that if now it only applies to Brazil, no? But in general, if I had applied also for Germany, if the companies decide to remunerate through share buyback, our general course of action is not to go for that shares, but just increase. So that is I think it's a natural action that we don't take part of that and we just automatically increase. And even more in the case of Brazil, which the company is doing so well. And we see a growth there, as I mentioned in one of my questions.

Speaker 3

But it's more than a conscious decision is that if share buyback is part of the remuneration policy, as this is the case, this will increase automatically our and we don't go and go for those shares.

Speaker 9

That's great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

We have time for one very last question, please.

Operator

Thank you. Our last question comes from the line of Joshua Mills from BNP

Speaker 10

Hi, guys. Thank you very much for taking the question. First one very quickly. On the 5 gs subsidy benefit of €300,000,000 is that something we should expect to continue next year and in subsequent years? Or is it a one off?

Speaker 10

I'm just getting a bit of guidance around that specific item would be helpful. And then secondly, could you just give a quick update on the progress on the Brazilian regulatory changes and when we might get an update there, right? As I understand it, it could be quite a meaningful opportunity for you to reallocate capital more efficiently in that market. But some sense on timing and the granularity of the guidance you'd be able to provide once you do get that change would be helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 3

On the 5 gs subsidies, it could. It depends on future deployment cases and so on. It has been more concentration in this year and particularly in this quarter. But this is something which is business as usual and it could definitely continue. Probably not at this size, but it really depends on more processes in this line.

Speaker 2

And regarding the move from concession to authorization in Brazil, Annatella approved the agreement already in June. The company's Board of Directors also in June. The proposal is moving from a different regulatory regime that allows the termination of some proceedings and some obligations. This will allow us to dispose of reversible assets. It comes with some commitments for investment, but at the same time, gives us lots of flexibility to conduct our business and should be very accretive for our Brazilian business.

Speaker 2

We expect it to be finally approved in the Q4 of this year, at latest early next year, but we believe it will be Q4 of this year. So thank you very much for attending this call. We expect that we have provided you with answers to your questions. Please address to our IR department any further needs of information that you may have. Thank you.

Operator

Celestronica's January September 2024 results conference call is over. You may now disconnect your line. Thank you.

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