CME Group Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 14, 2024

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the CME Group 4th Quarter and Year End 2023 Earnings Call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference over to Adam Minnick. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and I hope you're all doing well today. We released our executive commentary earlier today, which provides extensive details on the Q4 and full year of 2023, which we will be discussing on this call. I will start with the Safe Harbor language, and then I'll turn it over to Terry. Statements made on this call and in the other reference documents on our website that are not historical facts are forward looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance.

Speaker 1

They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any statement. Detailed information about factors that may affect our performance can be found in the filings with the SEC, which are on our website. Lastly, on the final page of the earnings release, you will see a reconciliation between GAAP and non GAAP measures. With that, I'll turn the call over to Terry.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Adam. And as Adam said, thank you all for joining us this morning. I'm going to start by giving a little color on the broader environment. Following that, Lynn will provide an overview of our financial results and our 2024 guidance. In addition to Lynn, we have other members of our management team here To answer questions after the prepared remarks, 2023 was the best year in CME Group's history with a record average daily volume a 24,400,000 contracts, up 5% from 2022.

Speaker 2

This growth was led by records in both agriculture and interest rate products, which for the year were up 17% 16%, respectively. Options average daily volume across all asset classes also set a record with ADV of 5,100,000 contracts, up 23% versus last year. Lastly, our non U. S. Average daily volume increased to a record 6 0.8000000 contracts.

Speaker 2

Last year, I referred to 2023 as a new age of uncertainty and that uncertainty extended throughout the year. We experienced continued inflation, rising cost of capital, increasing geopolitical tensions and shifting perceptions around the Fed's interest rate policy. All of these factors contributed to our customers' growing need the risk management, capital efficiencies and demand for our products. Following the very strong performance of our business in 20222023, We have seen the speculation that our interest rate business could face headwinds based on the expectation that the Fed will start to lower interest rates this year. In my 40 plus years in the industry, I've observed that regardless of whether rates are going up or down our volumes are typically higher during periods when the change of rates is uncertain as is the case today.

Speaker 2

I've never seen such disparity in opinions on what the Fed may or may not do. And I believe that is a tailwind for CME Group in our rates products. I mentioned earlier that our interest rate volume was up 16% in 2023 with 4 Fed rate hikes during the first half of the year, building up record volume levels of 2022. In contrast to the view that a rising rate environment is optimal for our interest rate complex, our volume actually grew and accelerated since the Fed stopped raising rates in July of last year. In the 6 months from August of 2023 To January of 2024, our rates volume is up 24% year over year.

Speaker 2

I would also like to comment on the dynamics in the crude oil marketplace. Following the Russian Ukraine war and other geopolitical factors that influence the price of energy. WTI or West Texas Intermediate has become even more relevant to our customers in Europe and Asia and cemented its position as a primary reference price for crude oil globally. As the primary market for WTI trading, we continue to generate growth and expanded end user client participation to developing and investing in new contracts such as CME Group's Argus Gulf Coast contract. In a very short period of time, these contracts have generated significant commercial participation with current open interest over 500,000 contracts.

Speaker 2

As indicated by the open interest, it's clear that the commercial prefer CME Group's Argus Gulf Coast contract. We continue to remain focused on the growth of these contracts along with creating capital and technological efficiencies in the entire suite of CME Group's energy complex. This anchors CME Group as the global leader in West Texas Intermediate. Moving into 2024, we continue to see a wide range of views as it relates to the health of the global economy, whether it's inflation, unemployment or monetary policy. Also, there are ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions continuing in certain parts of the world.

Speaker 2

Additionally, we're approaching political elections in over 60 countries this year. The uncertainty of those elections And the policies that could come from that are basically unknown to all, which only leads to market participants continue to manage risk. All that being said, 2024 is still very much the age of uncertainty and our products remain critical Risk management tools for our clients. We have seen this reflected in our strong start to 2024 where we delivered our highest January average daily volume in our history of 25,200,000 contracts, which is up 16% relative to last year. With that being said, I'm going to turn the call over to Lynn and we look forward to taking your questions.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Terry. In addition to the volume records Terry discussed, we delivered record financial results in 2023. Our revenue of $5,600,000,000 grew 11% compared to 2022. Our annual adjusted expenses excluding license fees were approximately $1,526,000,000 including $56,000,000 related to our cloud migration. In aggregate, our adjusted operating expenses were $9,000,000 below our annual guidance.

Speaker 3

Our adjusted operating margins for the year expanded to 66.9 percent, up over 200 basis points from 2022. We delivered $3,400,000,000 in adjusted net income resulting in 17% earnings per share growth for the year. During the Q4, CME Group generated more than $1,400,000,000 in revenue, a 19% increase from Q4 2022 with average daily volume up 17%. Market data revenue grew 9% from last year to 167,000,000 Expenses were very carefully managed and on an adjusted basis were $490,000,000 for the quarter $393,000,000 excluding license fees $16,000,000 in cloud migration costs. CME Group had an adjusted effective tax rate of 21.7 percent, which resulted in adjusted net income of $865,000,000 Our adjusted EPS was $2.37 up 23% from the Q4 last year and represented our 10th consecutive quarter of double digit earnings growth.

Speaker 3

Capital expenditures for the Q4 were approximately $23,000,000 and cash at the end of the year was $3,100,000,000 CME Group declared over $3,500,000,000 of dividends during 2023, including the annual variable dividend of $1,900,000,000 which was paid in January. Turning to 2024 guidance. We expect total adjusted operating expenses excluding license fees, but including cloud migration expenses to be approximately $1,585,000,000 Total capital expenditures net of leasehold improvement allowances are expected to $85,000,000 and the adjusted effective tax rate should come in between 23% 24%. Finally, in November, we announced transaction fee adjustments, which became effective February 1. Assuming similar trading patterns as 2023, The fee adjustments would increase futures and options transaction revenue approximately 1.5% to 2%.

Speaker 3

Taken in aggregate with the fee changes for market data and non cash collateral, which took effect January 1st, the fee adjustments would increase total revenue by approximately 2.5% to 3% on similar activity to 2023. In summary, we're very proud of the results we were able to deliver as a firm this year, driving 11% revenue growth and 17% adjusted earnings growth from our previous record year of 2022. We'd now like to open up the call for your questions. Thank you.

Operator

Thank Our first question is coming from the line of Dan Fannon with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Good morning. Maybe Lynn, just to start on expenses. Can you talk about what the areas are investment in 2024, and how that might be different than what we saw last year, where dollars went last year? And then also just on the Google partnership, Can you update us on the progress there and maybe what you are expecting in terms of contribution as we think about 2024 and 2025 from that relationship?

Speaker 3

Okay, sure. I'll start on the investment piece. So if you look at the guidance, we are expecting expenses to increase by $1,000,000 year over year. That is inclusive of the migration spend. So of that $60,000,000 about $15,000,000 is an increase in the migration expense.

Speaker 3

As a reminder, we do expect to have incremental migration expenses this year and next year before we get to cash breakeven and ultimately cash flow positive. The remaining $45,000,000 in increase is related to core expense growth and that's in the 3% range, very similar to what we've seen historically. In terms of Google, I'll let some of my colleagues.

Speaker 2

And Dan, Sunil and Billy will.

Speaker 5

In terms of progress on Google migration, we intend on making substantial progress with migrating, clearing, Business Information Systems and market regulatory systems through the cloud platform. Some of these regulated workloads are of course subject We have no objection approval from regulators, but we intend on making significant progress even on the data side. I'll now hand over to my colleague, Julie Winkler, who will talk about data and data products.

Speaker 3

Thanks for the question, Dan. On the client side with Google, we've really been focused on areas that we believe are going to our clients' abilities to really engage in our market and utilize these offerings. The technology with Google Cloud is something that we're able to leverage. And so We've been really focused on where we can enhance our data services business, things like performing the trade execution analytics that we've talked about, which is something very unique in terms of our ability to use proprietary data and benchmarking, And we expect to be rolling that out here in 2024 and also a lot of interest from our clients around Supporting them to help them better manage their risk and so looking at how we do that both with data and analytics that we are providing with them. So we're on track.

Speaker 3

We've continued to roll out a number of new data services products throughout the year. And as Sunil pointed out, the speed and velocity of which we're able to deliver has certainly increased, now that our core data is in the cloud. Great.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Dan. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Alex Kramm with UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Yes. Hey, good morning, everyone. Just wanted to come back to the pricing comments you made at the end of your prepared remarks there. I think 1.5% to 2% on the future side. I think that's kind of back to pre inflation or high inflation environment maybe even on the lower side.

Speaker 7

So Can you maybe just talk about how you thought about the price increase this year? It seems like inflation is still somewhat elevated, But then obviously curious if to what degree client feedback, competitive dynamics are impacting that, if if at all. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Hi, Alex. Thanks. I think we look at it in several pieces. One is the clearing and transaction fee, which did increase in the 1.5% to 2% range. But keep in mind, we do think about the different levers of pricing and how they impact different parts of our customer base.

Speaker 3

So we did increase the collateral fees this year going from 7 basis points to 10 basis points and we did increase the market data fees as well. So in aggregate, the total fee change will result in about 2.5% to 3% in total increase in revenue. We want to make sure we're taking that balanced approach because different fee changes like the transaction fees will impact certain segments whereas collateral fees will impact different segments. We're always looking to balance that impact and make sure we're not overly burdening one part of our customer base.

Speaker 7

Fair enough. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Alex.

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Owen Lu with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Good morning and thank you for taking my question. So CME and DTCC just launched the enhanced cross margining arrangement. Could you please talk about the initial feedback from your clients? And please remind us the implication to your clients and to CNV longer term about this initiative. Thanks a lot.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Owen. I'm going to turn it to my colleague, Suzanne Sprague, President of our Clearing House and has above clearing and risk, and she can give you some fairly good color as it relates to the DTC see arrangement.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Teri, and thanks for the question. Although it is early days of the program since the launch just a few weeks ago, we You have 8 clearing members that are live with the programs and some portfolios are already seeing consistent savings of 75% to 80%. So we're happy with the uptake of the program that we've seen so far, although it is early days and we continue engaging with those clearing members to increase the onboarding and the efficiencies that they're able to achieve through their portfolio savings.

Speaker 2

And Owen, I think just to add to what Suzanne said, as you know And others on the line know, over the last year or so, our former colleague that headed up their business, Sean Tully, talked about The efficiencies that would go along with getting us into the offsets with DTCC and in the ranges of anywhere from 40% to 80%. And so Suzanne's numbers of 75% to 80% are on the high end of what we were originally looking for. So this is a very exciting opportunity for us and more importantly our client base.

Speaker 8

Very helpful. Thanks a lot.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Ken Worthington with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning and thanks for taking the question. I wanted to dig further into your comments, Terry on energy and market share and sort of business shifts in that market. You call that Argus is sort of a preferred crude contract. I was hoping to get more color on crude more broadly and also what you're seeing in gas. So for crude, what are you seeing in terms of share And to what degree is the addition of Midland to the Brent marker altering behavior?

Speaker 9

And in natural gas, seems like options in globalization seem to be the story here. I was hoping you could provide some perspective.

Speaker 2

Sure, Ken. There's a little bit to unpack there. So I'm going to take part of it. I'm going to take some of it and ask Mr. Salmon to comment on the gas And part the back part of your energy question.

Speaker 2

But when we talk about our ARGUS contract, we're talking about a contract that is based out of The same region that there is a competitor's contract trading as well. We're just pointing out that our contract is very much attracted by The large commercial participation was a reflection of over 500,000 open positions compared to others in the same region that have the same risk characterizations as ours. So we think that's a very much a net positive for us. As far as market share goes, Ken, Being around a long time, like unfortunately I said earlier, when you look at markets that are in a 10 month range of less than $10 a barrel in energy, you will see shifts and behavior shifts of percentage points here or there going back and forth depending on what's going on, on any given day. So that doesn't surprise us.

Speaker 2

We've seen that historically since we acquired the New York Mercantile Exchange. So those are things I'm not surprised by in this low vol environment. So that being said, let me if that gives you an understanding what we're talking about in the Midland area and also about the percent changes going back and forth in low vol times. And then I'll ask Derek to comment on the gas and the options as well, I think was the other part of the question.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thank you. Let me take a step back a little bit. And that's important to note that our WTI franchise is bigger than just our CL contract. So I want to point out couple of ways that we continue to invest in, innovate and grow our overall WTI portfolio in this range bound and quiet volatility market.

Speaker 1

Sorry to mention of those which is the crude grades contracts and that's a growth story with a significant participation in the commercial end user base and that's reflective of WTI now being part of the Brent assessment and that just means it further cements WTI as a global benchmark. Secondly, we continue to expand our WTI options franchise. We added expanded weekly expirations Mondays Wednesdays. That's driving 35% growth in our crude and refined options business so far this year. 3rd, we continue to invest in our micro contracts.

Speaker 1

We have ADV of around 100,000 contracts, 50,000 unique traders in that market And the products overall have been a great entry point for new clients acquisition. A lot of these customers have never traded an energy contract before. So we continue to onboard new clients through that. So all these products in our broader WTI portfolio reinforce WTI as the main benchmark globally to contribute stronger to the overall energy franchise growth we've seen into 2024 with overall energy up 21% and our options growth particularly up 87%. Yes.

Speaker 1

Moving over to natural gas, Ken, you're right. That's a it's a significant story. And I think when you look at the fact that the U. S. Has now become A significant both producer and exporter of natural gas that really has positioned Henry Hub as a central benchmark globally for LNG as natural gas continues to be consumed globally.

Speaker 1

When you look at that business over the course of last year, You've seen significant growth globalization. You're absolutely right. When you continue to see the growth that we've seen in 2023, we saw European nat gas volumes up almost 50% and we're seeing that business up almost 100% so far in the 1st 6 to 7 weeks of 2024. When you look at both the commercial participation, natural gas was up 30% with our commercial participants last year. It's up 50% so far this year and the buy side clients are up 50% last year and 80% this year.

Speaker 1

So it's a global story. It's a story that's been adopted by buy side and commercial participants And it's a global story for us. I think the last piece of that is the central role that options continues to play in markets as volatile as we have seen natural gas options are the optimal tool for the way customers interact with this business. So when you look at our nat gas options business set a record last year over 150,000 contracts up over 40% and the vast proportion of that was on screen and 2024 has started Strong with almost 300,000 contracts so far a day and nat gas options up over 100%. So overall, it's a globalized story.

Speaker 1

It's one where we continue to engage and one that's true to our story.

Speaker 2

Ken, hopefully that gives you a little bit of color on the energy markets in the Gulf Coast and other places.

Speaker 9

That was excellent. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Ken.

Operator

Next question is coming from the line of Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks. Good morning, folks. Thanks for taking my questions. If I could just ask a 2 parter, just one on a little bit of a clarification on the market data price increase that's coming into that to 3, if I back out the collateral increase from 7 to 10, it looks like the market data increases is maybe less than the increase for the RPC.

Speaker 6

Just wanted to gauge that. And then just secondarily, maybe just if you can talk about the development of incremental Trading volume from the DTC arrangement, just your views on to what extent does that capacity increase the clients will make its way into more trading volume in the rates.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks, Brian. And Lynn will touch on the data as the market data pricing changes that you referenced. And then I'll have Tim McCourt and probably myself touch a little bit on the trading volume as it relates to DTCC and the arrangement associated with it. Lynn?

Speaker 3

Yes. So the pricing changes that went into market data were in the range of 3% to 5 across the majority of our data products. The total impact is going to come down to the subscriber count, The customer and product mix just like we see on the transaction side, but most of the products went up in that 3% to 5% range.

Speaker 2

Does that get to your question on the data, Brian?

Speaker 6

Yes, that answers it. Thank you.

Speaker 2

So on the trade volume question that you had as it relates to the DTCC arrangement, is that the second part?

Speaker 6

Yes. In terms of your expectations for volume improvement given the capacity improvement from the client base that's trading rate figures?

Speaker 2

We're always cautious on expectations, but let me go ahead and have Tim a little bit with the client base on how they're reacting to. And I think you've got a little bit of a flavor for it on the previous answer that Mr. Brett gave as it relates to the clients that using it already, getting the 75% to 80% efficiencies with their margin portfolios. But Tim, let me turn to you for some comments.

Speaker 4

Thanks Terry and thanks Brian. As Terry said, it's very difficult, almost impossible to forecast the impact on trading volumes going forward. But if we look back over the years, increasing capital savings and delivering capital at Christian Pizza client has been a strong tailwind for our business in terms of increasing The ability of our clients to manage risk at CME by unlocking those capital efficiencies and if we look at an analog perhaps When we look at the portfolio margin savings, there are futures and options conflicts against the cleared interest rate swap business that has grown the last several years to about $7,000,000,000 to $8,000,000,000 of savings per day and we've seen commensurate growth in volume NOI. Hard to draw a strict relationship, but tried in 2 is increasing capital efficiencies, increase the ability of our clients to efficiently manage their risk, provides enormous volume benefits in terms of the offsets available and we'll continue to watch it developing, but hard to give an exact number at this point.

Speaker 2

And Brian, the only thing I would add to that, you have to look at what we talked about earlier today and you see the entire 2023, especially going into the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4 of 2023. We saw the record open interest in our treasury complex across the curve, which is very encouraging for us. So from our standpoint, owning a cash platform and owning the largest listed business in the world. This is very exciting for us. We've talked all along about futurization of products.

Speaker 2

You're seeing that more and more every single day, the electronification of products and with the growth in our rates business going into last year, I think was just another example that with a record open interest in trade coming into our treasury complex. So from the growth, it's hard to say what the growth is coming from or what's driving it. But by owning both platforms, we can see we get the benefits either way and we saw the benefits really materialize on the future side in 2023, especially in Q4.

Speaker 6

That's great perspective. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Benjamin Badish with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi, good morning and thanks for taking the question. Terry, in your prepared remarks, you talked about expanding end user client participation. I was wondering if you could expand upon that a little bit, both in the energy complex And on the rate side, are you seeing sort of more activity from your existing client base? Are you seeing more participation from maybe new institutions that are increasingly engaging in the sort of risk management behavior. Yes.

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Benjamin. And I'll start with the rates a minute and my colleagues can jump in if they'd like, especially Julie Winkler, who's in charge of our new client acquisition. But on the rate side, I think a lot of it goes to what I just said on the futurization of the marketplace and people trading more and more futures contracts versus maybe particular other venues and that's an ebb and flow situation. So I'm not saying it's going to continue at the pace it continued in 'twenty three and I'm not saying it's not either though.

Speaker 2

So I like the way the trajectory is and I think a lot of the clients when you look at what happened with the duration risk through 2023 for a lot of different participants, They are now looking at using the marketplace, which are most deep liquid markets, which are ours to mitigate and manage that risk. So I think we're seeing it from them. And as you know, the direct clients, we can see, but some of them are coming through our major banks. So we don't know exactly who the client is to the person or the entity, but you can definitely see that people are looking at the fundamentals that are going on around the world and using our marketplace to use it. So I think that's part of the new clients.

Speaker 2

On the energy side, I think when you look at the new clients, I think you'd have to be exceptionally Excited by the commercial energy participants that Derek referenced, especially in the Gulf Coast contracts. We're looking at close to 80 commercial participants that are trading in those ARGUS contracts that we referenced earlier. So that's a growth for us on the energy side. So this is all part of it. So we're not just looking at retail or other proprietary trading.

Speaker 2

We're looking at true commercial participation, which is a reflection of the health of anyone's marketplace. So I think that's what's really exciting for us as we look at the new clients coming into our marketplace. And I'll ask my colleague, Ms. Winkler make some further comments.

Speaker 3

Yes, I think Teri is absolutely right. And the 2 segments that I would just Pwn in on Benjamin that we saw particularly double digit growth from last year was really the buy side and the commodities or sorry, the commercial segment as well. And so when we look at that, we saw really strong ADV from Asset managers again double digit, the semi buy side clients that really are looking at our products because of the regulatory environment, the liquidity and also the capital efficiencies that we offer. And so, The products that I'd say they were most interested in and what we saw almost half of that growth was coming from interest rates with all of the volatility and movement that we saw last year, But also a lot of interest in our commodity suite. So hedge funds, managed funds that are really looking at CME's agricultural portfolio and also more esoteric products, things that we offer like milk and lumber because they're looking to diversify the risk profiles and also access those uncorrelated markets.

Speaker 3

And so it's another sign of our really diverse product portfolio Meeting customer needs, on the commercial side, double digit growth both in terms of revenue and ADV last year and that was really as they were hedge our physical positions, manage that risk exposure, got good uptake in some of our new industrial metals, the energy companies that we talked about before. And I think this trend speaks to the transparency, the efficiencies and the well regulated futures markets that we offer. And then internationally, I think particularly in Europe, on the short term interest rate side, we saw some really strong and also interest across our commodities and FX suite. So, I think we have a lot to build on as look into 2024, but very strong performance in those areas last year.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Joe. And Benjamin, let me end on this note on as it relates to that. I think it's really important and We don't state it enough. As it relates to our rates business, especially, you look at some of the largest participants who I referenced earlier. Between their activity in swaps and futures, and futures is a critically important point here, They're saving roughly $8,000,000,000 $7,000,000,000 to $8,000,000,000 a day in margin efficiencies where they could deploy that capital and other activities, whether it's trading other parts of their business.

Speaker 2

That's hard to replicate and that's a service, it's a benefit to the largest clients in the world that can use that money to be deployed elsewhere. So that has grown substantially since 2015. So that's been a big growth driver for us over the last 8.5 to 9 years as well.

Speaker 10

All right, great. Thank you for all the color.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Hey everybody, good morning. Thanks for

Speaker 9

the question. I was hoping we could dig into the equity business a little more and just talk about the competitive dynamics between you guys and Cboe's contracts. We've seen the divergence in kind of volumes and market share for a couple of quarters now. So Just curious to hear what you're seeing with respect to underlying clients and what do you have in the works to narrow that gap? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes, it's a good question Alex. I'll turn it over to McCord, he'll start and I'm going to jump in as well and maybe Ms. Winkler also. So go ahead, Tim.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Alex. I think Before we get to the market share point, it's important to note that equity options on futures here at CME have a record 2023 doing over 1,400,000 contracts and had consecutive record months in Q4 as we headed into the end of the year. And also important to note here in January On the recent activity up over 1,500,000 contracts per day. So our equity option franchise at CME is continuing to grow, But there are certainly dynamics in the marketplace around the same day expiring or 0 DTE options that are changing the dynamic. But it's important to know that it is a growth versus growth story.

Speaker 4

Here at CME, our same day expiring options on the S and P500E Mini Future are up 70% in Q4 2023 versus 2022. But it's also interesting to note they only make up about 26% of our volume in Q4 of 2023 and our open interest is up between 20% to 24% outside of 0 DTE when we look over 2023 2024. So it's a very strong growth story here at CME. It's not only a 0 DTE story. When we look at the relative participation of our markets, it is important to note that we have gained share since the low that we observed over the summer at the peak of some of the 0 DTE trading, trading picking up several percentage points of share back.

Speaker 4

It's also important to note when we look at our global offering nearly 24 hours a day, We remain the leader across the globe, particularly in non U. S. Trading hours where that relationship is practically inverted against SPX and E Mini options remain the product of choice for those investors outside the U. S. And outside of the normal U.

Speaker 4

S. Trading day. So you really have to look at all the facets of our business, which continue to grow and continue to serve a vital part of risk management for our clients and the marketplace.

Speaker 2

And I think just to add to what my colleagues said, Alex, think it's really important that we when the references to risk management of these, we're a risk management institution and we're looking at massive amounts of open interest that have portfolio margin associated with them that cannot be replicated at other entities. So we to the degree we can. So we are really excited about our equity franchise. We do recognize. So we're not saying we don't recognize the growth that there's been in 0 DTEs.

Speaker 2

As you know, our 0 DTEs expire into futures and theirs expire into cash. That has been a difference that it seems that the retail participants seem to like a little bit more than the professional participant. So we are obviously looking at different things as this continues to evolve.

Speaker 1

Very helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Kyle White with KBW. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning. So last week, you announced that you'll be rolling out U. S. Corporate bond index futures this summer. I think other venues have attempted to launch credit index futures in the past And historically, it's proven difficult for those products to gain sufficient adoption.

Speaker 9

Just wondering if you could go into some detail about Why you think the time is right for this product? Why your effort may be different here? And then also provide some color on customer demand that you're seeing for

Speaker 2

the product as well? Thanks, Kyle. Tim?

Speaker 4

Thanks, Terry. Thanks, Kyle. Great question. We're pleased to announce Earlier this month that we entered into the IP arrangement with Bloomberg to offer futures on their corporate bond futures for both high yield and investment grade With futures coming online summer of 2024, still all the details are coming, but it's important to note, I think when we look at credit In this market with the increasing rate environment and the increasing dynamics and relationships diverging between equities and rates market, Introducing credit products to the market makes complete sense to offer another tool to our clients to manage the risk as it manifests in all parts of their portfolio, whether it be equity rates or single name credit. I think it's also interesting to note is that when we look at this universe in general and partner with Bloomberg, We are also tapping into a well established ecosystem around these indices, around other exchange traded products, structured products that are available.

Speaker 4

So this is a very welcome tool for clients. We've heard overwhelming feedback over the last several months during the validation process that this will be additive. It will help them in other parts of the credit market and we're looking forward to bringing these products to market, work with our participants to make sure that they continue to grow. And I would just encourage you to stay tuned for more details as we approach the summer.

Speaker 2

And so, Kyle, let me make a few more points on this. Think you said it at the beginning of your question, timing. Timing is everything as it relates to certain products and certain product launches. So I don't think a lot of people would have believed that the short end of the curve was going to continue to be the attraction point for as long as it has been today. We listed a T bill contract where someone would say, geez, we haven't had that since 1980 or 81, why did you bring that back out?

Speaker 2

Well, the cost of us to do that is very de minimis And we can get these contracts out there quickly. And if people need to manage risk, even if it's small at that current period of time, it's a good thing for CME. So I think when you look at The corporate bond market timing is everything. And we're not trying to nail the timing perfectly, but we want to make sure that these products are available if in fact people need to manage their risk more closely today than they did when others prior listed these contracts. So you never know.

Speaker 2

And again, these are not Big lifts for CME, we can continue to do it, but we also have other value added propositions that some others don't when we list new contracts.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask on Post Trade Services, the JV that you have with S and P Astra, it's been nearly 3 years since the Astra JV was created. I was hoping you could speak to the growth that you've seen. How well penetrated is the offering today?

Speaker 9

And speak to where you see some of the biggest growth opportunities ahead in post trade services and some of the steps you guys are taking to accelerate growth. And then also if you could touch on the competitive backdrop That would just be interesting to hear some others are looking to take share in processing and risk management.

Speaker 2

Right. It's a great question, Michael. We haven't talked too much about that. So I the opportunity to discuss it real quick on the call. I'm going to turn it to Lynn, and then I'm going to make a few comments as it relates to it as well.

Speaker 2

Because I think it goes into the strategy when we originally acquired NEX in the cash markets and also the post trade services that came with it and what our thought process was. So I'll save those comments and I'll let Lynne go

Speaker 3

Yes. So thanks, Mike. I think one of the things that we've been excited about is the JV that we were able to establish with originally IHS and now S and P. It was bringing together additional assets in the space to bring scale to that joint venture. So being able to cover multiple asset classes from FX, interest rate, Credit, being able to have the services span across that back office of the customer base has been really important and is a good foundation to grow from.

Speaker 3

So I think we've been excited about the prospects there. There certainly are always competitors in that space and people looking at that space. It's one that continues to need improvement in terms of where banks are looking For efficiencies, we've talked a lot about capital efficiencies. This is an area where it is important to the customers to have that service and have consistent approach there. So I think it's one where we continue to look for opportunities to expand the reach of that joint venture Now that is a trusted provider across a lot of the major asset classes.

Speaker 2

I have nothing more to add than that because I think Lynn summed it up. That's where I was going to go with the benefits of Once we acquired the business, getting focused on the cash markets to complement our futures markets was something we're really excited about with NEX. And then when you look at the post trade services and now having the JV, I think that was nothing but a bonus for us to be able to do that with IHS and then ultimately with our partner at S&P Global. So I think Glenn summed it up quite well. Great.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Simon Clint with Redburn Atlantic. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. There's quite a bit been written about the hedge fund basis trade recently. And I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about, I guess how you think that particular trade has scaled, how it impacts your business and what you would expect if or when it starts to unwind as the Fed shifts from QT to QE at some point? Just some thoughts on that would be really useful.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Simon. Tim? Great. Thanks, Simon. As we've talked about over the last several months, the basis trade remains an important part of keeping these markets in line and the efficient transfer of risk between the related markets of cash and futures.

Speaker 4

It's something that gets a lot of talk, I think, given the increase in the size of that trade, but it's also important to remember when we look at how that trade has grown and the participants on that trade With respect to increasing the size over the last several months years, is it is proportionate to the debt outstanding and the debt issuance of the market. So it's Scaling in sort of a linear fashion to that, it's important to put it in context. You just can't discreetly look at the size of the trade and compare it Something over a decade ago without the larger context of what's going on with respect to the debt markets, the issuance and the treasury markets themselves. So it's something that remains efficient for the marketplace. It's an important part of the risk management tool.

Speaker 4

It's something also important to remind folks in this force on this topic is that we do have our own margin and risk management system with respect to the treasury futures side that remains as it is regardless if you're trading against the basis we're trading in outright. We have all our risk management in place. So I think it's just important for people to understand when they're looking at the basis trade To really understand the benefits it provides to the market and make sure we're accurately talking about the future side and the cash side, but I think it's something that will continue. And it's as similar to my other comments, very hard to speculate on what might happen in the event of an unwind or continue to move further into the QT cycle In the rates environment, that's something that as Terry said in his opening remark, it's more important that in these uncertain times that we are here to help clients manage that risk And we'll do that regardless of what's happening in any of the one specific asset classes, but it's something that we'll have to make sure we're continuing to serve our clients' needs.

Speaker 4

That's what's important going forward rather than necessarily trying to quantify impact from a volume perspective.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Kim. Thanks, Simon.

Speaker 8

Thanks, Philip.

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Chris Allen with Citi. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Yes, good morning everyone. Thanks for the question. Wanted to ask on energy, which obviously globalization is having a positive impact here and I longer term energy transition will be structural catalyst. Kind of curious, how you're thinking about energy transition impacting other asset classes, namely whether there's an impact you see in Ags and Metals and then the growth opportunity moving forward?

Speaker 2

You got it,

Speaker 1

sir? Yes. So I think we've talked about this in the past. We're seeing the lines of distinction borne in between energy traders, ag traders and metal traders. And when you look at kind of the growth Monty's portfolio and Julie touched on this a little bit earlier.

Speaker 1

Overall, the portfolio grew very strongly last year. Metal is up 15%, Ag is up 17%. So it's not just a function of crossing asset cost lines, it's a function of utilizing adoption of our benchmarks as well. We're seeing our biggest grain traders move into energy. We're seeing our biggest energy producers move out into things like soybean oil and voluntary credit markets.

Speaker 1

So That's the benefit of having a single platform where we have been able to put up record volumes and participation in our commodities portfolio as a whole. Julie also referenced earlier the strong participation we've seen from buy side and commercial customers across Ags Energy and Metals. We saw buy side client growth last year up 30%. Commercials across all energy, ags and metals were up 15%. So I think it's a story of making sure, Terry mentioned this point earlier, having the right products in the right market circumstances.

Speaker 1

We have the benchmarks, we have the liquidity, futures and options, leading technology, best in class capital efficiencies across these asset classes and think it's generated the results that we put forward.

Speaker 2

Lynn? Thanks, Derek. Lynn?

Speaker 3

One part I just want to highlight that Derek said, we do have the Customer base is in the network across these asset classes, so energy, ags, metals. And when those lines are blurring, we already have that network. So we're making sure that we have those products available for those customers to trade as this transition develops, we can be that natural home for those customers that are already here at CME.

Speaker 2

Okay, Chris.

Speaker 11

Thanks, Chris.

Speaker 2

Thanks, buddy.

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Good morning, everyone. My question is on the November pricing schedule update. You didn't increase pricing on rate. So we're curious to why you didn't touch rate? Let me just Touch on that a little bit, Craig, because I don't want you to read any more into it than where it's at.

Speaker 2

You got to remember, we just came off of the biggest transition of a benchmark from LIBOR to sulfur. And We thought it was really important to let the market continue to mature even though we become the natural home for sulfur. I think we're Just at 100% of the market, there's a handful. Tim, is that fair? 99.9% of the market is now at CME.

Speaker 2

From my standpoint, as I look at the pricing with my team and I look at some of the rates businesses, I really believe it was important to let that benchmark continue to mature And I didn't think it was appropriate to raise them on the mature products right now as we're going through a cycle where risk management continues to be critical. We had a great expansion, as I said earlier, on what I believe is a movement a little bit from cash into futures. And I don't want to ruin that momentum. I want to let it continue to flow. But again, it was basically around the maturity of the sulfur futures contract and the options associated with it.

Speaker 2

So that was really my thinking with my team when we did the pricing on the rates. Lynn?

Speaker 3

Yes. The only thing I would add to that is keep in mind, Craig, because we were incenting the sulfur product over the last couple of years as those have rolled off, we have had some Natural pricing increases as the incentives have rolled off. So they weren't necessarily on the exact pricing change, but they were related to those incentives that have rolled off over time as it's matured.

Speaker 2

Does that give you a little color why we did it, Craig? No, that's perfect. Thank you, Terry. Thank you. Appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Thank you, sir.

Operator

And our next question is a follow-up question. It's coming from the line of Alex Kramm with UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, hello again. I think we have a little bit extra time. Just a couple of modeling cleanup questions here. 1, just to come back to the pricing question from Craig. Can you actually, from a Marlin perspective, help us where we would see the biggest impact on RPC?

Speaker 7

I know we can probably look at your pricing schedule, but it's thousands of lines. And then I have another one after that.

Speaker 2

Okay. Lynn? Yes.

Speaker 3

It's fairly well spread. I would say Equities in agriculture probably were a bit higher than some of the other asset classes, but it's fairly well spread with the exception of rates, which we just discussed.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you. And then my other one, I don't think anybody has asked yet, but can you just give us an update on balances in the clearinghouse cash and then obviously non cash collateral, the return you had. And then maybe related to that, When I look at some of the data that we track on that, it seems like the cash balances have been super consistent over the last 1, 2 quarters. So Just wondering if there's anything you would point to why we may have found a floor to those declines that we had seen in cash balances over the last couple of years?

Speaker 7

Thanks.

Speaker 2

I'm going to jump in before Lynn does and I'm going to ask Suzanne too also. You can go ahead. But I think what's interesting is, Alex, on that point, we've seen some really massive fluctuations in that cash balances that go up and down in a very short period of time. I mean, I'm talking about days. So it's really hard to say if there's a floor on that or not or if there's a ceiling on that or not because it does fluctuate.

Speaker 2

And I think after you saw some of just the recent numbers as of yesterday, I think it caught some people Offsides a little bit and that we don't know what that means to our cash balance at the Fed or not. So I think it's Quite fascinating what's going on right now and I think that's going to be a bit of a pattern this year. So I don't want to draw too much conclusions on where that balance is going to be at or not, but really going to be hard for us to predict what our floor could possibly be on it. Go ahead, Lynn. Yes.

Speaker 3

And just to provide you a little more of the data, Alex. So for Q3, our average cash balances were $91,000,000,000 In Q4, the average was $75,000,000,000 And we've seen that $75,000,000,000 continue in the early parts of Q1. The earnings on the cash balance was consistent with last quarter at about 36 basis points. On the non cash side, in Q3, we were at $137,000,000,000 on average. In Q4, that went up to $153,000,000,000 Just a reminder, that was at 7 basis points in Q4 and increased to 10 basis points here in Q1.

Speaker 3

In the early part of Q1 through February 6, our average is $160,000,000,000 on that fee eligible non cash.

Speaker 7

Fantastic. Thanks for the follow-up.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Alex.

Operator

And our last question in queue is a follow-up. It's coming from Owen Luo with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi. Thank you for taking my follow-up. So it has been more than 1 month after the launch of spot Bitcoin ETF. Could you please talk about how it has impacted CME, Bitcoin futures and futures ETF, do you think it's a net positive for CME? Just want to get your thoughts on this space.

Speaker 8

Thanks a lot.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Alan. Tim can comment and I won't be able to help myself. I'll make a comment as well.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Tom, for the question. Certainly, we've seen finally the long awaited of the spot based ETFs on Bitcoin and it's certainly an interesting and positive development for the ecosystem more broadly. We're hearing from customers our futures remain a central tool for the market makers of that ETF for those who are looking to create or redeem against the futures instead of the cash process. So it's something that we've also seen strong growth both on open interest and in volume of our complex in response to the run up, it's also remained here into February. To put that in perspective, January was our best month ever in terms of average daily open interest capping 4 consecutive months of average daily open interest all time highs where the average daily open interest reached a record of almost 23,600 contracts, which is the equivalent of about US5.1 billion dollars But also on the volume side, the FutureSuite Reached an all time high of about 67,000 contracts or almost $6,000,000,000 per day in January and our micro suite Crypto products grew 4 times, a fourfold increase since September, all in response to the market dynamics around The launch ramp to launch and the subsequent trading activity of the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF.

Speaker 4

We also remain the top Bitcoin futures exchange by open interest We expect this ecosystem to continue to grow as we see the interrelated products to be adopted by the market and CME Bitcoin futures and our Bitcoin reference rate will remain at the center of price discovery for this continuing growing ecosystem. And Owen, the only thing

Speaker 2

I would add to that, we've heard For a lot of years, what does it mean when an ETF versus the future? Are they competitive in certain asset classes? All we have seen As the futures continue to grow as they list ETFs, as people need to do risk management, as people other people are taking passive interest in some of these ETFs. So I think it's the ecosystem is good as it continues to grow. Tim just outlined some of the numbers.

Speaker 2

So I don't see there's any different than some of the growth of our other products. I actually am very encouraged by this.

Speaker 8

Thanks a lot.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

We have no further questions. I'd like to turn it back over to management for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

We want to thank you all very much for covering CME. We're excited by the quarter. We look forward Talking with you next quarter, we think it's going to be a busy year and look forward to answering any other questions you have for us on follow ups as we go forward. Thank you.

Operator

That concludes the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

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Key Takeaways

  • Record Trading Volumes: CME Group delivered a 5% increase in average daily volume to 24.4 million contracts in 2023, setting new highs for agricultural and interest rate products (up 17% and 16% respectively), options (up 23%), and non-U.S. volumes.
  • Strong Financial Results: 2023 revenue grew 11% to $5.6 billion with adjusted operating margin expanding to 66.9%, $3.4 billion in adjusted net income (17% EPS growth), and Q4 marking the 10th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth.
  • 2024 Guidance & Pricing Actions: CME projects adjusted operating expenses of $1.585 billion (ex-license fees), $85 million in capital expenditures, a 23–24% tax rate, and fee changes effective early 2024 that should boost total revenue by roughly 2.5–3% on 2023 activity levels.
  • Fed Uncertainty as a Tailwind: Amid ongoing debate over U.S. rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, interest rate futures volumes rose 24% year-over-year from August 2023 to January 2024, underscoring clients’ demand for risk management tools in the “age of uncertainty.”
  • Investments in Technology & Margin Efficiency: CME is advancing its Google Cloud migration (with $56 million of related costs in 2023) and launching new data analytics services this year, while its enhanced cross-margining with DTCC has delivered 75–80% margin savings for initial participants.
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Earnings Conference Call
CME Group Q4 2023
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