PENN Entertainment Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 15, 2024

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Penn Entertainment 4th Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen only mode. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Joe Jaffoni, Investor Relations. Please go

Speaker 1

ahead. Thanks, Frank. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Penn Entertainment's 2023 4th quarter conference call. We'll get to management's presentation and comments momentarily as well as your questions and answers. During the Q and A session, we ask that everyone please limit themselves to one question and one follow-up.

Speaker 1

Now I'll review the Safe Harbor disclosure. Today's discussion contains forward looking statements. Forward looking statements involve risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause results to differ materially. For more information, please see our press release for details on specific risk factors. With that, it's now my pleasure to turn the call over to the company's CEO, Jay Snowden.

Speaker 1

Jay, please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Joe. Good morning to everyone on the call. As usual, I'm joined here in Wyoming by our CFO, Felicia Hendrix and our Head of Operations, Todd George as well as other members of the executive team. We provided a link to our investor presentation along with our earnings release this morning. If you haven't already opened or printed it out, I would suggest you do that now as our prepared remarks will reference several of those slides as we go along.

Speaker 2

At a high level, 2023 was another transformational year for Penn Entertainment. We are the only company in the industry that has a fully integrated media and sports betting platform along with an omnichannel base of assets with which to drive cross play and synergies as the database continues to grow at a rapid pace. The future looks very promising given our unique position and long term strategic advantages. On the retail side of the business, we generated more than $2,000,000,000 in property level EBITDAR in 2023 from our industry leading portfolio of regional gaming assets and impressively delivered on our property level margin goals despite an uncertain macroeconomic environment, to our best in class operators and leaders across the country. We also broke ground on 4 exciting new retail growth projects in Illinois, Ohio and Nevada, which we expect to complete by the first half of twenty twenty six.

Speaker 2

As a reminder, we anticipate these will deliver a 15 plus percent return on the aggregate investment. The continued strength of our retail business provides a solid foundation as we continue to invest in our high growth digital business, which will create significant long term shareholder value. Speaking of the digital business, earlier this month, we announced that the founding family behind theScore, John, Benjie, Aubrey and Noah Levy will be transitioning from their leadership of the SCOR and Penn Interactive. John departed earlier this week, while Benjie, Aubrey and Noah will be leaving in early April. We have been working closely with the Levy's over the last several months on this and timing to ensure a smooth operational transition.

Speaker 2

Their departure comes at a natural inflection point for our interactive business. We've achieved a lot over the last several years, including the completion of our proprietary tech stack, the successful launch of the ScoreBet in Ontario, the migration of our tech stack into the U. S. And now the launch of ESPN bet. Even more importantly, we have developed an incredibly deep bench across Penn Interactive and we have several talented leaders ready to step up and take on more responsibility in the coming months.

Speaker 2

I want to extend my sincere thanks to John, Benjie, Aubrey and Noah for all of their hard work and contributions to Penn Interactive success. We are near the conclusion of the months long search process for the new Head of Interactive and look forward to sharing an update on that with you in the near future. Turning to Slide 6 in our investor presentation. On November 14, we successfully and seamlessly launched ESPN in 17 states across the U. S, a first in the industry and no doubt a testament to the strength of our technology teams.

Speaker 2

Bolstered by the number one brand in Sports Media, the launch resulted in much higher than expected registrations, generating over 1,000,000 new sign ups to our industry leading Penn Play rewards program and expanding our digital database by over 50%. In fact, we acquired as many first time depositors and betters in the 1st 2 months as we had anticipated we would generate in the 1st full year post launch. Importantly, approximately 1 third of these customers are located within 50 miles of 1 of our more than 43 retail properties, which sets up well for cross selling and monetization as part of our omnichannel strategy. In addition, We saw over we saw our average excuse me, monthly active users grow from nearly 190,000 in the 3rd quarter to more than 770,000 in the Q4. Our early success bodes well for our planned launches in North Carolina and New York this year, which I'll talk about in a moment.

Speaker 2

Given the early success in customer acquisition and retention, we now expect the Digital segment to inflect to roughly breakeven in 2025 and start generating meaningful EBITDA and free cash flow in 2026 beyond. Turning to Slide 78, you'll see that strong early retention and consistent user acquisition have led to steady month over month increase is in cash handle even as our promotional expenses have started to normalize. Our January cash handle was 289% higher than prelaunch cash handle in October of 'twenty three, while our promotional expenses as a percentage of handle went down from 32.2% in November to 2.8% this January. According to the latest Sensor Tower data, which is similar to other data sources you may have seen such as Aptopia, We have consistently held the number 3 ranking and share of weekly active users amongst our top peers, providing a foundation for even greater handle and GGR share gains as we grow our share of wallet and monetization per user. The ESPN bet numbers on the chart on Slide 8 show steady acquisition and retention across the board even as our promotional expense began to taper.

Speaker 2

On our initial promo offer at launch was right in line with our competitors and we lowered that offer by 50% in advance of the Super Bowl, given the more recreational play surrounding the game. Meanwhile, the total time spent on ESPN bed according to the Sensor Tower data also continued to ramp nicely as we added new features and integrations, which will only accelerate now that we can focus more of our product and engineering team's energy on product improvements, especially in the areas of same game parlays, player props and live betting as opposed to time consuming migrations and launch something we are all very excited about. All of this is very promising as it relates to both top of funnel demand for ESPN bet and early retention success. The important takeaway here is the ESPN bet app is proving to be sticky in the early days as a result of our strong brands and UI UX, which will improve from here with product enhancements and deeper integrations with ESPN in the coming quarters. As you'll see on Slides 9 and 10, ESPN Bet has helped us reach new demographics of sports fans that are incremental to our digital database, resulting in a 63% greater year over year parlay mix and higher volumes for non NFL games, particularly the NBA.

Speaker 2

While these parlay results are clear improvement from where we were pre launch, We still have a long way to go in this area and you'll see significant improvements throughout 2024. We also saw a 35% increase in our percentage mix of females in our digital database. These data points demonstrate the potential for ESPN bet to help broaden the appeal of sports betting to the more casual better and grow the overall market, an important goal of ours from day 1. Notably, before the launch of ESPN bet, Overall market handle grew by more than 17% year over year from January to October 2023 in the states with publicly available data in our market analysis. After ESPN bet, overall market handle is up nearly 30% year over year from November through December 2023 and it's up over 25% even when you exclude ESPN bet.

Speaker 2

ESPN Bet has and continues to bring new sports fans and betters into the sports betting ecosystem. ESPN Bet has also helped boost our Hollywood branded iCasino business, which has seen a nearly 2 80% increase in monthly active users, providing a platform for future growth with new proprietary content continuing to roll out from our Penn game studios. As we've emphasized in the past, when customers engage with us across multiple channels, their value goes up more than times over those who engage via only one channel and we continue to see a lot of upside as we improve our iCasino offerings. As illustrated on Slide 13, in connection with the launch, ESPN implemented an initial wave of exclusive Betmode integrations across the ESPN ecosystem, which includes our 6 Pack Odds integration. This provides for a seamless click through from the ESPN Gamecast to a customer's desired bet on the ESPN bet app.

Speaker 2

This is very powerful as there are over 28,000,000 monthly active users on the ESPN media app. You should expect more Betmode integrations throughout 2024. I said at the outset of our partnership with ESPN we'd be getting significant value for our marketing dollars by allocating our $150,000,000 per year to the single best brand and platform in the U. S. To reach sports fans and potential betters.

Speaker 2

We're already seeing that with a robust menu of promotion and integration across all of ESPN's platforms, including traditional linear advertising, digital media, in program integration, odds attribution, database marketing opportunities and access to some of the biggest personalities in sports media for special events, promotions and social media engagement. As I mentioned, we have just scratched the surface on these integrations and there's substantially more to come, all included as part of our deal that we will unveil throughout 2024 and into 2025. Our initial ESPN bet advertising campaign was by sports center anchors Scott Van Pelt and L. Duncan. We then added spots with NBA legend, Kendrick Perkins, The host of Get Up, Mike Greenberg, followed by our most recent commercial with sports betting analyst, Aaron Dolan that launched during the Super Bowl week.

Speaker 2

This campaign with Aaron is our 1st product and integration focused campaign, which we expect will help drive continued awareness of ESPN Bet and our direct integration with the ESPN Media app. Meanwhile, L. Duncan and Aaron Dolan hosted a Super Bowl party at the M Resort at our property in Las Vegas. And I'm happy to announce we'll be rebranding Greektown's market leading sports book to ESPN Bet just in time for the NFL Draft in Detroit. In addition, ESPN Regional Radio Talent will be hosting events throughout the year in our retail sportsbooks.

Speaker 2

We look forward to additional ESPN bet retail launches at key properties as we continue to create meaningful cross sell opportunities. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, we are excited to introduce ESPN bet in North Carolina, which is expected in March and New York expected prior to football season, in each case, of course, subject to regulatory approvals. While the economic model in New York is indeed challenging, We look forward to bringing ESPN Bet to the largest regulated online sports wagering market in North America. These two new jurisdictions will be extremely efficient for us. As highlighted on Slide 16, our ESPN annual national marketing spend per capita will be reduced by 20% with the addition of North Carolina and New York, which will take our addressable online sports betting U.

Speaker 2

S. Population from 37% to 46% and significantly expand our reach and scale, very important for us as most of our ESPN and off channel marketing spend is nationally focused. As noted in the release this morning, the Interactive segment EBITDA losses for the Q4 were higher than expected. The majority of that mess was driven by the high volume of customers acquired through ESPN bet, which resulted in elevated promo expense that negatively impacted net revenues and to a lesser extent unfavorable hold due to customer friendly sports results. The 1st 2 weeks following the launch of ESPN bet in November happened to be 2 of the lowest whole percentage weeks of the entire NFL season.

Speaker 2

Looking ahead, we expect that Q1 2024 Interactive EBITDA losses will be roughly half of our Q4 'twenty three interactive EBITDA results and for Q1 to be the largest EBITDA loss quarter of the year for us in 2024. For the entire year of 2024 on a same store basis, we anticipate an EBITDA loss commensurate with what we saw in Q4 at around $330,000,000 demonstrating the top line momentum and efficiencies on the cost side. Due to 2 state launches this year in North Carolina and New York, which we announced on Tuesday, we are forecasting a total EBITDA loss in 2024 of approximately $400,000,000 As mentioned earlier, we now anticipate 2025 being around breakeven and 2026 to deliver meaningful positive EBITDA and free cash flow. Before turning it over to Felicia, I'd like to thank our property leaders and all of our team members for delivering another quarter of really solid property level performance. Notably, 10 properties spread across our portfolio achieved their highest ever Q4 revenue.

Speaker 2

These outperformers helped offset the impact of supply pressures in a few of our key markets, as well as continued softness in our South region. This further demonstrates the benefits of our geographic diversity and unique omni channel strategy. The introduction of new technologies and our ongoing reimagination of our properties, while providing a best in class customer experience is continuing to drive demand for Penn. As you know, our industry leading customer loyalty program, Penn Play, is supported by our 3 Cs technology, which is now deployed at 21 properties, collectively representing approximately 70% of our retail EBITDAR. During the quarter, we've also grown our total Penn Wallet customers to 110,000 and we've received $300,000,000 in total Penn deposits.

Speaker 2

As we've often said, those guests who use the digital wallet demonstrate superior loyalty through increased visitation, time on device and total theoretical spend.

Speaker 3

Our Property Level segments reported another solid year. 4th quarter 'twenty three EBITDAR results of $476,000,000 exceeded the implied guidance we provided on our 3rd quarter call despite headwinds of roughly $10,000,000 from the Detroit Union Negotiations and Road closures. And as Jay highlighted, our Interactive segment is showing early signs of strong momentum. As usual, you will find on Page 12 of our earnings release, a table that summarizes our cash expenditures in the quarter, including cash payments to our REIT landlords, Cash taxes, cash interest and total CapEx. Of our total $152,000,000 in CapEx in the quarter, $16,000,000 was project CapEx primarily related to our 4 retail growth projects.

Speaker 3

We ended 2023 with total liquidity of $2,100,000,000 inclusive of $1,100,000,000 in cash and cash equivalents. We expect our liquidity to remain strong throughout 2024 and we have no debt maturities until 2026, which are our $330,000,000 convertible notes. As we previously guided on our 3rd quarter earnings call, We continue to expect our lease adjusted net leverage to peak in the Q3 of 2024. While 3rd quarter leverage will be higher than initially anticipated given the demand based strength of our ESPN bet launch in the Q4 2023. This increase is temporary and we will also delever more quickly.

Speaker 3

By year end 2025, We will return to pre ESPN bet leverage levels. And in 2026, we will generate meaningful EBITDA and free cash flow from the Interactive division. Thinking about this another way, our path to record free cash flow is very clear. Following a year of investment in 2024 and delevering in 2025, 2026 will be an exciting inflection point for us Given the high EBITDA to free cash flow conversion of our interactive business, which when combined with the free cash flow generated by the existing core business, Plus, the 4 retail growth projects that will be coming online in early 2026 will position us extremely well to drive shareholder value. I will now provide guidance for our Retail and Interactive segments.

Speaker 3

For the full year 2024, We expect retail revenues to range from $5,600,000,000 to $5,750,000,000 and adjusted EBITDAR to range from $1,905,000,000 to $2,025,000,000 Our guidance factors in extreme January weather, new supply in Nebraska, Illinois and Louisiana, road construction in a couple of markets and moderate upward wage pressure. For the Interactive segment in 2024, We expect to generate revenues of $1,280,000,000 to 1,415,000,000 and an adjusted EBITDA loss range of $420,000,000 to $380,000,000 These ranges include our launches in North Carolina and New York. On a same store basis, we anticipate an adjusted EBITDA loss of around $330,000,000 To help you with modeling the Interactive segment revenues, you should assume that our 2023 tax Gross up of roughly $400,000,000 remains flat year over year in 2024 and other revenues inclusive of skins, Social Gaming and Media is roughly $200,000,000 in 2024. As Jay mentioned earlier, in the Q1 of 2024, we expect the Interactive segment adjusted EBITDA loss to be roughly 1 half of our 4th quarter interactive EBITDA results and for the Q1 2024 to be the largest EBITDA loss quarter of the year. We expect 2024 corporate expense of roughly $105,000,000 inclusive of our cash settled stock based awards.

Speaker 3

Total CapEx for 2024 is approximately $500,000,000 inclusive of $275,000,000 of project CapEx for our 4 development projects. For cash interest expense, we forecast $170,000,000 for the full year after roughly $13,000,000 of interest income. For cash taxes, we are projecting to be in a refund position of roughly 15 And as you think about our share count for 2024, our basic share count as of the end of 2023 was 100 and $52,000,000 and we typically have roughly $15,000,000 of diluted shares inclusive of the $14,000,000 share dilution from the converts. And with that, I'll turn it back to Jay.

Speaker 2

All right. Thanks, Felicia. As you saw in our release, we're continuing to expand on our corporate social responsibility As we look back on the year, I'm very proud of the continued growth of our diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, which are deservedly gaining a lot of attention. Newsweek named Penn 1 of America's greatest workplaces for diversity And Forbes named us for the 3rd straight year as one of America's best employers for diversity. Time Magazine went so far as to name us one of the world's best companies for 2023.

Speaker 2

Meanwhile, on the community front, we provided more than $7,000,000 in support to local charities and veterans focused organizations and more than $17,000,000 in economic development grants in 2023, in addition to the more than 8,000 volunteer hours from our team members to help those in need. And on the environmental side, we completed our inaugural Scope 3 greenhouse gas inventory and established carbon abatement targets for 2024 and beyond. You can read more about these all of these initiatives in our 2023 CSR report, which is scheduled to be published in April in conjunction with our proxy filing. In closing, we're continuing to see a stable consumer environment and healthy operating trends in our retail businesses. And on the digital side, I want to reiterate that our partnership with ESPN is not your typical media sportsbook commercial agreement.

Speaker 2

Ours is an exclusive strategic long term alliance that as I mentioned has the potential to deliver unique products, experiences and integrations that are unmatched and of course With that will come attractive returns for our shareholders. We had 3 primary goals with ESPN bet for the 1st several months post launch. Number 1, execute on a successful launch both in terms of top of funnel demand and app stability, competitiveness and performance. Number 2, grow the market given the strong brand equity and reach of ESPN along with the media integrations. And number 3, provide a differentiated experience and value proposition to ensure lasting relationships and product retention.

Speaker 2

So far, we're off to a great start on all three and have built a tremendous foundation for our upcoming launches in New York, North Carolina and beyond. So with that, Frank, we'll open it up for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from Joe Greff

Speaker 4

Jay, I have two questions, not surprisingly on Interactive. First, maybe an easier one. Can you talk about the search for Leading Interactive and Maybe why one hasn't been announced because I don't believe the Levy is leaving and the timing was all that surprising. Maybe what was surprising was that there wasn't someone needing to head it upon their news that they were planning to depart? And then a second question, I mean, it looks like right now your share maybe in January is sort of in this 7% range.

Speaker 4

If I know the goal is to grow beyond 7% to 10% and higher. But if we look at 2 years from now and OSB and I Casino will be 25%, 30% higher in 2 years than what it was, what its run rating presently. If you're at a 7% market share level 2 years from now, Obviously a bigger market, can your digital business be EBITDA positive? And if you can share with us how you think of profitability, bigger market 7% share, what that margin range would be? I think that would be hopeful looking at things kind of a couple of years out versus the investment that people are focusing on this morning?

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Good questions, Joe. And Starting off with the search for the new Head of Interactive. Look, we've been working with the Levy's For months, really throughout Q4 of 2024, thinking through, We have a very deep bench at Penn and who can step up as they exit within the team. And we feel like we've got Some great answers to that question.

Speaker 2

We actually spent a lot of time in Toronto a couple of weeks ago and we've got such a deep bench on the engineering side and on the product great marketers in the business. So a lot of this is that we needed the time to make sure that we have a plan in place that by the time The levies depart that people are already communicated to and stepping up. We also started a quiet search in the Q4 because we didn't want this to get out in advance and create uncertainty and we're very far along in that process. I can't comment on exactly where we are, but you should rest assured that we're very deep in the process. We're very close And we're very excited on the level of talent that we are considering is incredible.

Speaker 2

And I think the market will see it that way when we announce what we're doing, but I just can't I can't communicate any further on that today. We feel good about the timeline with the levies leaving in April that We should have something announced obviously before that and we're working to have this be a super seamless transition where the new Head would be there at that time, maybe a little sooner, maybe a little after, but not have a gap in leadership. So that's the plan right now and we'll continue to communicate when we can publicly more about that. The second part of your question Is a good one, the 7% share that we're seeing currently and what does that look like a couple of years out? I'll take a step back for a second, because I think there's as we sit here today and how we're thinking about the business, we're 3 months into this ESPN bet post launch and there's a lot of positives that you can see in those 1st 3 months.

Speaker 2

First, obviously, ESPN and the strength of that brand is on full display. And they've been amazing partners. They've continued to under promise over deliver. We think we're getting something in February. It shows up in December.

Speaker 2

They give us a lot of extra value add beyond what they're required to in our $150,000,000 marketing partnership, which is great. We saw a really strong app performance and stability and we've had very good early ratings in the iOS App Store. We launched in 17 states simultaneously, the first time that's ever been done. And we also just went through our first Super Bowl with tremendous load and we got through there knock on wood because the teams did such an amazing job preparing and we had no hiccups, 100% uptime. So feel really good about those two things.

Speaker 2

Obviously, we shared in a number of slides that our Customer acquisition has been very, very strong. That's what drove the promo cost being so much higher than we anticipated With over a 1000000 downloads and deposits and betters in the 1st 2 months, we thought it would take us a year to get to that. That speaks to very, very efficient customer acquisition costs in those 1st 2 months, something that we never could have imagined. And then of course on the retention side, we're in a great spot. If you look at Slides 7 and 8 in our presentation, you can see that we're already in a very, very strong position, a very firm number 3 position with regard to weekly active users, in online sports betting.

Speaker 2

And obviously, we've picked up significant MAUs in online casino as well. And so what we're seeing there also is that our cash handle as a percentage of total handle has grown month over month over month from November to December to January, which means that people are weaning off of those early promos, they're dipping into their wallets, making deposits and continuing to play with us. And we're growing the market. We have a couple of slides on that as well. And I think as we sit here today, the opportunity of course is to close the gap of the market share, handle market share that you referenced of 7% and what we're seeing on our share of weekly active users, which is more like double that number.

Speaker 2

And so the fact that we're seeing weekly active users at a very stable level means that we've got a lot of people that have downloaded, deposited and bet. They like the app. They're coming back to the app on a regular basis, but we just don't have our fair share of the market yet in terms of how much time they're spending in the app. But I view that as a positive because We know that our ability to grow our share of wallet and improve the monetization of our users is going to come from 2 things, which is product enhancements. We're very well on our way.

Speaker 2

We've been so busy, as I mentioned in our initial opening comments with launches and migrations that our teams Haven't had the ability to really focus on features and functionality. And now we can't, because we've got most of that behind us. We get North Carolina launch, but we've many state launches that's not going to be as time consuming. So we need to enhance our same game parlay offerings, player pops, live betting, in game betting, And of course, deeper integrations with ESPN and that's happening and will continue to happen and more with the ESPN Media app, more with the Fantasy app. So that's what's in front of us.

Speaker 2

And we believe that if you can if we can be at 7% handle market share In the early days with these things that we know are sort of at first inning or second inning of a game, we feel really good about where those are going to take us over the course of the next 12 months, 18 months, 24 months. So we don't anticipate that 7% is going to be as good as it gets by any means. We think that the market share is going to be growing steadily as we continue to make product improvements and add more deeper integrations with ESPN. And to your question, If we were to be at 7% a couple of years out, could we be profitable? The answer to that is yes.

Speaker 2

What we don't know as we sit here today is How many more states will legalize from a sports betting and online gaming perspective, but you should feel as though 7% and above is a level that we could definitely generate A profit, obviously, we would want to have our Icasino market share close to those levels as well. So that's the way that we as we sit here today, the way that we view things after the 1st 3 months. It's really early obviously, but the number one focus was all the things I mentioned and we're thrilled to see that retention looks really good after 3 months.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joel Stauff with Susquehanna. Please proceed. Thank

Speaker 5

you. Good morning. Jay, I wanted to ask about Kind of the media integrated offering, especially with ESPN's media app, the 6 pack LinkOut, I think was available kind of mid January. How long do you expect before that really is Like a kind of a relevant source of new incremental customers for you. And I know It's obviously early, but in Ontario, I think approximately 72% in terms of what you said Of your customers in real bedding in Ontario come from the app.

Speaker 5

What's the right way to think about again sort of that conversion?

Speaker 2

Yes. The way we think about it, Joe, is that if we can get the level of Integrations between media and sports betting in the U. S. Between ESPN and the fantasy app of course And into ESPN bet that we should be able to get those percentages to be about the same here. So we're on it.

Speaker 2

There's really There aren't disagreements or lack of alignment between us and ESPN on what those integrations will be. Obviously, we're looking forward to BetSlip integrations. We're looking forward to Fantasy integrations. We think we'll have a lot of that complete By the time we get to football season, it's hard to peg today if it's all going to be done by September, some of it's going to be in the Q4, but we feel really good and we have a lot of alignment with on just how important it is. I've continued to be really impressed at how many resources that they are putting against ESPN.

Speaker 2

Bet this is a big part of a growth opportunity for ESPN and they're as excited about it as we are. But we should be able to duplicate here in the U. S. What the stats that you're referencing in Ontario, Joe.

Speaker 5

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

Speaker 1

Hey, everyone. Thank you. Jay, as you think about The guidance parameters you set forth within Interactive for 2024, obviously, if we put the 2 launches, New York and North Carolina aside, what is kind of underlying that assumption in terms of promo reinvestment To the extent you could answer that, but where do you kind of imagine promo as a percentage of handle, as Percentage of GGR, however you choose to think about it, what's kind of embedded in that assumption at this point?

Speaker 2

Yes. I would say, Carlo, without giving exact detail that we anticipate promo as a percentage of handle going forward to be really at market levels. We're not anticipating being the highest, we're not anticipating being the lowest. It probably will fluctuate a little bit month to month depending on what we have going on around March Madness integrations with ESPN, if we because remember, a lot of that is driven by top of funnel. And so the more successful you are in driving people into the ecosystem, you're going to peak in that particular month.

Speaker 2

And so there's probably not going to be a lot of volatility during the late spring summer months with basically MLB, but I think it depends on how successful we are in North Carolina could drive that number higher, of course, in March. When we launch in New York, I would expect it to bump, of course, but pretty steady otherwise to be right at market. We're not Our goal is not to be higher or lower than where most others are, which is depending on the state right around 3%, 2.5%, 3%, 3.5%, right in that range. Great.

Speaker 6

Thank you. And then if

Speaker 1

I could, just two questions on clarifications on things you guys said relating to the brick and mortar business. First, Jay, you talked about the 4 projects that are currently underway in the first half of twenty twenty six. Will there be, I think, late 2025 was the expectation for some. Is that all of them will now be first half of twenty twenty six or you will complete the 4th in the first half of twenty twenty six?

Speaker 2

Yes. And we didn't mean to be confusing there, but we'll have all four done and open in the first half of twenty twenty six. Could 1 or 2 of them hit late twenty twenty five? Yes. So we really haven't changed.

Speaker 2

We just got to be clearer to say you should expect all 4 to be open and operating in the first half of twenty twenty six. But it will be opening the 4 of them between late 2025 mid-twenty 6.

Operator

Our next question comes from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning everyone. Jay, I'm hoping you could just help us break down maybe the implied revenue forecast for 2024 a bit more granularly. If we back into it on the digital side, it seems to imply roughly and again, it will depend on everybody's TAM here, but maybe 6% to 7% OSB market share. So that's pretty consistent with where we're at today, albeit on a national level, so probably New York and maybe North Carolina. So I guess the question is, is that right?

Speaker 7

Is that kind of like run rating about where you are in a same state basis all you need to be successful and hit your revenue target in 2024 on digital? Or do you need a pickup or materially better monetization or product mix as we move through the year from here?

Speaker 2

No, I think your back of the envelope math is right, Sean, and that's a level that gets us to this interactive result on the EBITDA line. We anticipate that it's going to continue to ramp as we get toward the end of the year in football season from we've got a lot of product enhancements and deeper integrations with ESPN planned over the course of the next 3, 4, 5, 6 months, really targeting September to be ready for football season. So I would expect that 4th quarter should be a quarter that you See that start to really come together and I think we would be exiting 2024 with real momentum from a handle market share perspective, given the enhancements to the overall experience that I mentioned earlier. So that's the math. We're not really Super focused on where we are today on market share.

Speaker 2

It's where are we going to be in September and beyond. I think it will probably fluctuate around where we're at now, Given the stability that we've seen in daily, weekly and monthly active users, we make more enhancements to the products. I think it becomes more sticky. You start to get more share of wallet. Some of the newer players you brought into the ecosystem, I think they spend more time on the product.

Speaker 2

They go from betting once a week to twice a week. And so we think that's really going to ramp up and we picked up So many new users, we covered that a couple of times that it takes the pressure off of us to feel like we need to continue at that pace. It's probably not possible, but we have 2 great state launches, 9% of the U. S. Population.

Speaker 2

We can continue to be sort of at market with regard to our new player, new deposit sign up. We're not looking to lead the market, but certainly the at market And let the ESPN brand and all the integrations take care of the rest. That's a recipe that we think makes a lot of sense and it's tremendously efficient as we go. But Yes, you're correct in your back of the envelope, although we expect to be ramping toward the end of the year into 2025.

Speaker 7

Super. And then sort of maybe drilling down a layer, Probably the best way for us to gauge some of your success and improvement on the product side is going to be watching some of your implied bet And really your theoretical or your hold rate improved as we move through the year. Could you just talk a little bit about where your theoretical sits today kind of we hear numbers obviously for the best of breed guys now easily approaching double digit, maybe even low teens. Where are you today just given sort of your mix of customers, your casual better? And kind of how do you expect when do you expect us to kind of start to see some more measurable improvement in that.

Speaker 7

Again, I'm putting this in context of some of the data we've even received where some of the state level hold rates in January have been really, really low relative to market. So maybe just help us put those pieces together.

Speaker 2

Yes. I'll talk about kind of high level where we think we are and where we want to be. And then I'll let Todd jump in on sort of what's been happening in the last couple of months because a lot of that's been done with focus and intention as we continue to drive top of funnel demand. I think today based on the mix, we're seeing a higher parlay mix today than we've ever seen, which is great. But we're still below market and we know that our parlay mix though It's continuing to get better.

Speaker 2

We've got a little ways to go on prepackaged, prepopulated parlay offerings and sort of a parlay lounge that you can go to and much like the top competitors of ours have today. That's something that we actually feel like is all upside from here. So we're probably More at that 7% to 8% kind of theoretically today, but we'll be continuing to gradually build that up to double digit. I think It's just a matter of time, Sean, before we get that parlay mix and especially on the same game side, which is where we're not as strong today, but we're going to continue to put a lot Focus and energy there from a product enhancement standpoint between now and football season that we should be able to catch the others over time. But It may not be done in 2024, but I don't think it's going to go beyond 2025 given that we can now focus so many of our resources on product enhancements and features and UI UX as opposed to just deploying state launch deploying resources around state launches and migrations.

Speaker 2

You want to speak a little bit about what we've seen so far?

Speaker 8

Yes. Thanks, Jay, and thanks, Sean. The only thing I would add to that, as we are going out there and growing our database that we touched on You've got this mix of promo spend that everybody does, but you also have odds boost So that become a great acquisition tool and get people into the ecosystem. So what we were able to do through use of odds boost is bring people in during the especially during the playoffs and then carry that over through the Super Bowl and get people into the ecosystem. Also, I would say that the trends right now looking a lot like early years for some of the competitive set.

Speaker 8

So we're very comfortable with The progress we're making and expect going into next year with a lot of the work that's being done as we sit here today, that we'll see that same progress. The number of people that are taking advantage of the parlays and finding those to be really attractive is encouraging for us as we move into the next phase.

Operator

Our next question comes from Barry Jonas with Truist Securities. Please proceed.

Speaker 5

Hey, guys. Good morning. ESPN just announced plans with Fox and Discovery for a new streaming service JV, any sense yet if and how ESPN bet could participate?

Speaker 2

Yes. Barry, the way we've gotten that question quite a bit. The way to think about that is, this is the way it was described by Disney. I'm not speaking for them, just repeating what they said on their call. This is really about content distribution.

Speaker 2

It's about getting in more households And on more devices as people have continued to move away from cable, this is another option to have a streaming package that would include ESPN and ESPN content. So you should anticipate that if you're watching ESPN today, whether that's digitally Streaming, or you're watching that on linear that as you see integrations in the shows on ESPN that, that would carry over to this new streaming platform as well. SportsCenter is still SportsCenter and GetUp is still GetUp and the integrations in those shows would be as they are today. It's just a matter of providing more access to ESPN to more people in the country. That's great.

Speaker 2

And then I just wanted

Speaker 5

to ask one on the land based business. Curious to get your thoughts on expanding the land based portfolio, whether that's M and A or Greenfield? In the past, we've talked about interest in the Strip, I believe some new jurisdictions are looking at legalization. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, look, our position is we'll continue to be Looking at opportunities, whether those are acquisitional opportunities or greenfield as those opportunities present themselves and That hasn't changed, that won't change. If there's a great opportunity and we think we can generate value in an investment, then that's something we're going to strongly consider. Sometimes that's easier said than done. Las Vegas Strip, there's very limited opportunities and nothing really hot at the moment.

Speaker 2

If there's a new state, then that's something that we would be taking and have been taking a hard look at. Obviously, nothing is imminent at the moment, but we're continuing to kick the tires. That won't change.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brandt Montour with Barclays. Please proceed.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning everybody. Thanks for taking my question. First question is on the non ESPN marketing spend budget that we heard about from you 3 months ago. Has that has the outlook for that spend bucket changed at all based on what's happened with ESPN and sort of your efficacy there in the first few months and what have you baked in, in that 24 guidance?

Speaker 2

So you should assume, Brandt, that What we've said previously is consistent with how we feel today. It's going to be roughly matching the on channel spend with ESPN. A number that obviously we can flex, but we think that's a good target. That's sort of what's built into our modeling for 2024. It gives us plenty of dry powder to utilize for state launches.

Speaker 2

You should think about that spend as being much more performance based marketing spends And probably more targeted, obviously, the ESPN spend is almost entirely national and some of the off channel is national as well. But a lot of it is performance and more local and regional focused.

Speaker 6

Thanks for that. And then just a follow-up, Good to see obviously cash handle moving upward. I think one of the things that people are concerned about out there is 3rd party data providers suggesting that deposit share hasn't moved up and is tracking below your handle share. And so I guess the question is, are you seeing similar improvements in cash deposits?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think the deposit information that you're referencing goes back to what I mentioned. I mean, you can see in the Weekly active user numbers, monthly active user numbers, we've got engagement. That's not an issue. And we've got really good ratings on the iOS store app.

Speaker 2

So we feel really good about that. I think our job is to continue to improve the products and get deeper integrations with ESPN and eliminate friction so that we can get people more seamlessly from ESPN's ecosystem, whether that's media, fantasy and the like over to ESPN bet when they're ready to engage in betting. So I think the deposits is really a function of we don't have our share of wallet yet. We're getting the deposits. We're probably not in the same size of deposits as we are with maybe the top competitors, but I'm confident in saying that we're one of 3 or maybe 4 apps on their phone And they're on our app and they're placing wagers.

Speaker 2

I think they're waiting for more enhancements. And I think that that's okay. Our ability to keep people engaged is taking care of itself now. And I think that any that have gone that will have gotten dormant, by the time we get to season next year, we can reactivate quickly because of our relationship with ESPN and the product is going to continue to get better and better. So We feel great.

Speaker 2

I mean, we have over a 1000000 new people in the database. Most of them are engaged with us on a regular basis, as you can see on Slide 8. And we just have to build out the relationship, the loyalty and earn more share of wallet as we go. And I think you'll see deposit growth come along with that.

Operator

Our next question comes from Chad Beynon Whit Macquarie. Please proceed.

Speaker 9

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. First one on the bricks and mortar business. So the margin guidance of 34% to a little bit over 35%, assumes Some slippage from what you produced in 2023. Felicia, you called out some competition and obviously the weather.

Speaker 9

As we think about kind of same store margins, is it safe to assume that properties that aren't being hit by competition could drive the same margins or is there a major reason why you would expect for margins to decline in 2024? Thanks.

Speaker 8

This is Todd. I'll take that. Yes, that's basically everything that's modeled in there from a same store basis, Putting January behind us, looking at very strong stable margins, I think the Variables that Felicia provided are everything that's modeled in there, but we don't see that changing.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thanks. And then for 2024 in terms of stock buybacks, can you remind us what's left on the program and if there could be opportunities given where the stock is right now to buy back shares at these levels? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Chad. We do have $750,000,000 remaining on our stock repurchase authorization. But Look, as Jay and I talked about in our prepared remarks, this is a year of investment as we focused on growing and building out ESPN bet. So you probably won't see share repurchases in 2024, but as we transition from the growth phase of our interactive segment towards profitability and a free cash flow phase, we'll have plenty of opportunities to consider return of capital to shareholders.

Speaker 3

But again, this year, we're focused on investment.

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, look, we have pretty recent history of buying back shares when it makes sense for us and that's the best use of capital allocation. And right now, as we've covered in this call, we're investing in a high growth business that's going to generate a lot of value for our shareholders long term. So that's the priority. It doesn't mean that you can't do or won't do anything else.

Speaker 2

It just means that right now that is the number one priority.

Operator

Our next question comes from Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

Speaker 10

Hey guys, good morning. Jay, so we think about the 1,200,000 new members to your database that you called out. You talked about 90% of those are ESPN bed customers. I know it's still early, But can you give us any indication of how many of those new members have visited one of your brick and mortar casinos and or Have you used your iGaming platform? I guess, what we're trying to figure out here is kind of what that cross traffic, play has looked like as this as your ecosystem continues to grow?

Speaker 2

Sure. I mean, look, we're Todd will have some comments on this as well. We're in the Very early stages as you referenced. I mean, we're 3 months here. So we've built up a really nice database.

Speaker 2

We know where they live. We know how the proximity as we talked about 1 third of them within 50 miles of 1 of our retail businesses. So, we're going to start working on that now. That's not something that we've had a lot time to get going on. But we're very excited about the cross sell opportunities.

Speaker 2

It's a lot of new people into the database. Our overall database is now approaching 30,000,000 people. It feels like just yesterday, we were at 25. So that's a big opportunity for us. Todd, anything that you

Speaker 8

want to add overall? Yes, Jay. The only few items I would add, and Jay gave the data point around how many people are So close to our property, when you expand that kind of concentric circle around our properties, that number grows significantly. And then just based on what we did through some promotions at year end with some of our properties, moving these people to a property, We see such a great multiple, especially in that low to mid customer that's engaging with us online. When they get to a property, we're seeing great play, great engagement as well as additional spend on the other amenities.

Speaker 8

So That will be in the playbook as we move forward and it will be a key component this year and all the years as we move forward.

Speaker 2

And I think just your other part of the question on cross sell to I Casino, you can see from the monthly active user slide that we have on Hollywood Casino that cross sell has been great. Again, it's one of those Our product today, I would say is good, but it's got to be great and we're working on that diligently as well with our product team. And we think that We can see our market share from a handle perspective continue to grow probably to what our daily active and monthly active user share is.

Speaker 10

Okay, got you. Thanks for that. And then this is probably for Todd. Going back to your embedded guidance on the top line for the brick and mortar side of the business. I guess, Todd, can you maybe give us a little bit of color of kind of how you guys are thinking about your core customer this year in terms of spend levels and maybe what gets you to the low end of that range versus the high end of that range?

Speaker 8

Yes, Steve. Great question. So for us, especially this last quarter, Maybe the last two quarters, we did see tremendous engagement return from that 65 plus customer, which has traditionally always been strong for us, But just took quite some time to come back into our properties. So looking at those positive trends, those continue into this year. And then our core customer looking at that mid range high frequent customer, we are still seeing A little bit of elevated spend per trip and slight increase in trips in Q4.

Speaker 8

So Looking at how that continues through this year in almost every region, that remains strong. So I would say that slight fall off maybe in the 21% to 34%, which has been running hot for a long time, but we make that up in the 65% plus.

Speaker 2

Frank, why don't we have one more question, please?

Operator

We have a question from Bernie MacNeerin with Needham and Company. Please proceed.

Speaker 11

Great. Thanks for taking the questions. Good morning. Just want to ask on that Slide 8, the weekly active users. And I know the commentary in terms of what the embedded guidance is for market share this year, but do you think there's a structural difference in terms of what your weekly active users would be versus what your handle or GGR share would be?

Speaker 11

Just trying to get at if it's a more casual user, if there should be that difference maybe if they're lower spend or if it's right now you're a second or third app that someone's using and the goal is to migrate that to the primary app over time and just How you're thinking about navigating that customer journey?

Speaker 2

Yes. Bernie, we think it's both. We definitely have a lot of new users. So we think feel strongly we've grown the market. And so that's going to take a little bit of time to grow their play to be commensurate with maybe somebody that's been betting on online sports betting for the last 3 or 4 years.

Speaker 2

I think most of it, however, though is a share of wallet that we are one of the apps people have on their phone. They're using the app, they're on the app. We see all of that in the data and we're getting a smaller portion of their wallet than we are of how many people are actually using the app. And so on a percentage basis, I think this is exciting for us. Slide 8, I think says a lot about where we think we can get to and it's not going to take us a really long that's not a 5 year journey.

Speaker 2

We think that's something that we can accomplish in the next couple of years, if we really get our product to where it needs to be. And of course, the deeper integrations with ESPN, we think integrations with The Fantasy app with ESPN is going to be a huge shot in the arm. We anticipate that happening before the end of the year, Obviously targeting football season. We'll see if we can get there. But it's a combination of the 2.

Speaker 2

But the fact that people have the app, they're using the app, We just need to build more loyalty with those users over time.

Speaker 11

Great. Thanks, Jay.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Bernie. Thanks everybody for joining us and we look forward to sharing more with you next quarter. Thanks.

Operator

That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line. Have a great day everyone.

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Key Takeaways

  • Launched ESPN Bet in 17 states, driving over 1 million new Penn Play sign-ups, a 50% expansion of its digital database and MAUs rising from 190,000 in Q3 to 770,000 in Q4, with Digital now expected to break even in 2025 and generate positive EBITDA and free cash flow in 2026.
  • Retail operations produced more than $2 billion of property-level EBITDAR in 2023 and met margin targets despite headwinds; 2024 guidance calls for $5.60–5.75 billion in revenues and $1.905–2.025 billion in adjusted EBITDAR, while four new growth projects (Illinois, Ohio, Nevada) aiming for 15%+ returns are on track to open by H1 2026.
  • Founding Levy family of theScore will exit Penn Interactive by April, with a “deep bench” of internal candidates and an external search underway for a new Head of Interactive to capitalize on the proprietary tech stack and ESPN Bet momentum.
  • A $150 million/year exclusive partnership with ESPN has rolled out BetMode integrations (including 6-Pack Odds) across ESPN’s 28 million-MAU media app, fueling cross-sell to Hollywood iCasino (MAUs up ~280%), broader demographic reach (female mix +35%) and significant market-growing impact.
  • Interactive EBITDA losses are forecast at approximately $400 million in 2024 (same-store loss of ~$330 million), with Q1 losses about half of Q4 2023, paving the way for peak leverage in Q3 2024, deleveraging in 2025, breakeven in 2025 and meaningful free cash flow in 2026.
A.I. generated. May contain errors.
Earnings Conference Call
PENN Entertainment Q4 2023
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