Sonoco Products Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 15, 2024

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the 4th Quarter 2023 Sonoco's Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Lisa Weeks, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator, and thanks to everyone for joining us today for Sunoco's 4th quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. Joining me this morning are Howard Coker, President and CEO Rob Dillard, Chief Financial Officer and Roger Fuller, Chief Operating Officer. Last evening, we issued a news release highlighting our financial performance for the Q4 and full year, and we prepared a presentation that we will reference during this call. The press release and presentation are available online under the Investor Relations section of our website. As a reminder, during today's call, we will discuss a number of forward looking statements based on current expectations, estimates and projections.

Speaker 1

These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Therefore, actual results may differ materially. Please take a moment to review the forward looking statements on Page 2 of the presentation. Additionally, today's presentation includes the use of non GAAP financial measures, which management believes provides useful information to investors about the company's financial condition and results of operations. Further information about the company's use of non GAAP financial measures, including definitions as well as reconciliations to to GAAP measures is available under the Investor Relations section of our website.

Speaker 1

For today's call, we will have prepared remarks regarding our results for the quarter and 2023 and an outlook for the Q1 full year of 2024 followed by a Q and A session. If you will turn to Slide 4 in our presentation, I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Howard Coker.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Lisa, and thanks to all of you for joining our call this morning to review our 2023 results and 2024 outlook. In 2023, we continued to make progress on strategic initiatives and delivered solid results in what was a pretty difficult year from a volume perspective. Despite these lower volumes, we delivered strong EBITDA margins of 15.7%, which is somewhat similar to last year. Our strong Margins were the result of record performances in our consumer rigid paper cans and flexibles businesses. On the industrial side, Despite volume levels similar to 2,008, our team delivered record profit margins through diligent cost management throughout the paper ecosystem.

Speaker 2

Our adjusted earnings of $5.26 were within our guidance range for the year. And with intentional focus on working capital, we generated record operating cash flow of $883,000,000 and free cash flow of $600,000,000 for the year. We also returned capital to shareholders and increased our annual dividend for the 40th straight year. We completed acquisitions and divestitures according to plans and our teams did not skip a beat on initiatives to further strengthen our foundation. I want to close 2023 by thanking this incredible team of for the resiliency and dedication throughout the year.

Speaker 2

Certainly, the global economic and external factors did not make this an easy year at all. But we did not stand still and we delivered the 2nd best annual financial performance in the company's 125 year history. I'm grateful to work alongside these great people of Sunoco as well as our customers and supplier partners, and we continue to look to the future with optimism. And with that, I'm going to turn the call over to Rob to cover financial results and outlook. Ron?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Howard. I'm pleased to present the Q4 and full year 2023 financial results starting on Page 6 of this presentation. Please note that all results are on an adjusted basis and all growth metrics are on a year over year basis unless otherwise stated. The GAAP to non GAAP EPS reconciliation is in the appendix of this presentation as well as in the press release. As Howard said, 2023 was a record year for Sunoco.

Speaker 3

In 2023, we achieved the 2nd best financial results in the company's 125 year history in key metrics such as net sales, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS. By many measures, this was our best year ever. We achieved record operating cash flow, record free cash flow, record productivity and we invested a record amount to drive future growth and profitability. We've built a foundation for continued strong financial performance, building on our enduring operating model, strong market positions, investment grade balance sheet and our differentiated dividend. We're excited about the future and feel good that 2023 was a year to solidify our improvement since 2021.

Speaker 3

Full year 2023 net sales decreased to $6,780,000,000 due to the volumes at Karnes from destocking in consumer and an elongated cycle in industrial. While these factors impacted year over year results, we grew net sales at a 10% compounded annual growth rate since 2021 due to strategic pricing, new product wins and acquisitions. Adjusted EBITDA grew $297,000,000 from $770,000,000 in 2021 to $1,067,000,000 in 2023. Over $150,000,000 of this increase was organic improvement due to strategic pricing and productivity. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 15.7 percent in 2023, a 190 basis point increase from 2021.

Speaker 3

We achieved strong profitability due to price cost in 2022 and retained this profitability in 2023 due to productivity of $109,000,000 We are operating with Agility and continue to match cost controls with productivity investments. 2023 GAAP EPS was $4.80 and adjusted EPS was $5.26 which was within our guidance range of $5.25 to $5.40 On Page 7, we have our results for Q4 2023. Net sales decreased 2% to $1,640,000,000 Volumes were lower 3.4% due to low single digit volume declines in both Consumer and Industrial and price was negative 2.3 percent due to negative index based pricing. Adjusted operating profit decreased to 167,000,000 Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $236,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.4%, a 20 basis point decrease from 2022. Q4 was an incredibly strong quarter operationally.

Speaker 3

We managed variable demand and generated record productivity of 49,000,000 This translated into a 180 basis point increase in gross profit margin. These operating profit results were offset by SG and A items that we consider infrequent in their magnitude, including higher employee expenses, healthcare and accounts receivable reserves. GAAP EPS was $0.82 and adjusted EPS was $1.02 within our guidance range of $1.01 to 1 $0.16 Tax was a $0.06 drag on the quarter as the tax rate increased to 25.7% due to actions to repatriate cash. It's notable that without the specific higher SG and A items and tax items, we would have achieved at least the midpoint of guidance. Page 8 has our sales and operating profit bridges for the quarter.

Speaker 3

Net sales declined to $1,640,000,000 due to negative volume mix and negative price. Volumemix was negative $20,000,000 in the quarter as consumer continues to be impacted by inflationary pricing at retail Industrial continues to reach a cyclical low. Price was negative $39,000,000 We continue to achieve strong results from our strategic pricing program. Negative price was a result of deflation in index based prices in resin, metal and paper based businesses. Next on this page, we have the adjusted operating profit bridge.

Speaker 3

Adjusted operating profit was driven by negative volumemix and negative price cost with strong productivity benefiting results. Volumemix was negative $10,000,000 price cost was negative $14,000,000 as positive price cost in Consumer and All Other was offset by negative price cost in Industrial. Productivity was positive $49,000,000 as we achieved positive manufacturing productivity due to our lean programs and positive fixed cost productivity due to continued efforts to reduce our plant footprint and optimize supply chains. Other was negative $42,000,000 due to employee expenses, healthcare and accounts receivable reserves. These expenses are not expected to repeat in this magnitude.

Speaker 3

Page 9 has our segment results for the quarter. Consumer sales decreased 3% to 856,000,000 Consumer volumes decreased low single digits due to customer inventory management and the impact of inflationary pricing. Many consumer customers are beginning to return to historical pricing practices, including discounting. However, volumes have been slow to return to typical patterns. Rigid paper container sales declined low single digits due to mid single digit volume declines offsetting positive price.

Speaker 3

Flexible sales were flat as new customer gains offset low legacy customer volumes. Metal Packaging sales decreased mid single digits Due to low single digit volume declines and negative index based price actions, demand from our core customers in metal packaging has strengthened, But overall demand declined due to anticipated template based price reductions in 2024. Consumer operating profit decreased to $106,000,000 of productivity and $17,000,000 of price cost was offset by volume mix and SG and A, a meaningful component of which we do not expect to repeat in this magnitude. Consumer operating profit margin was flat at 9.7%. Industrial sales decreased less than 1% to $593,000,000 Industrial volumes decreased low single digits Due to lower demand in most key markets and geographies, industrial prices decreased mid single digits due to index based pricing actions.

Speaker 3

We continue to achieve strategic pricing, but were impacted by declining paper indices and increasing OCC. OCC increased to $92 per ton from $38 per ton in 20.22. Industrial operating profit decreased to $62,000,000 due to $36,000,000 of negative price cost, offsetting $20,000,000 of productivity. Industrial operating profit margin remained at a historically strong 10.4% We're protecting margins with strategic pricing and with cost actions to reduce fixed costs. The business is well positioned to benefit from a return to normalized volumes.

Speaker 3

All other sales decreased 7% to $187,000,000 due to broad volume declines. All other operating profit increased to $22,000,000 due to strong productivity and positive price cost. Moving to Page 10. Our capital allocation framework aligns with our business strategy to drive value creation through earnings growth and improved margins. In the Q4, we generated operating cash flow of $267,000,000 We invested $108,000,000 of this cash and capital expenditures to fund our growth initiatives and improved margins.

Speaker 3

Results from these investments are translating into improved productivity and growth with new customers and new products. Further, we remain focused on increasing the dividend, which at present is $0.51 per share on a quarterly basis or a 3 0.5% annualized yield based on our current share price. Next, we paid off $172,000,000 of debt in the quarter and reduced our net debt to adjusted EBITDA to 2.8 times. We'll continue to be disciplined and improve our liquidity and access to capital. This is key to our strategy as we continue to have a proactive M and A strategy focused on executing the right deals based on strategic fit, scalability, financial profile and cultural fit.

Speaker 3

We are being disciplined in a disrupted M and A market and will do the right acquisitions and divestitures at the right time for us. Page 11 has our guidance for Q1 and full year 2024. Guidance for 2024 adjusted EPS is $5.10 to $5.40 This guidance is based on low single digit volume growth. Consumer volumes are expected to grow low single digits, while industrial volumes are expected to experience only limited recovery. Price cost is expected to be meaningfully negative due to contractual recessed in consumer and the impact of timing and pricing lives on industrial.

Speaker 3

Another meaningful input to guidance is a $32,000,000 increase in depreciation. We expect to grow adjusted EBITDA in 2024 and are guiding to a range of $1,050,000,000 to $1,100,000,000 Our operating cash flow guidance is $650,000,000 to $750,000,000 Working capital is expected to be a $100,000,000 to $150,000,000 use of funds as we invest in inventory and receivables to assess supply chains and enable volume growth. Guidance for our capital expenditures is $350,000,000 We've increased the proportion of capital expenditures focused on long term growth and profitability projects. This investment is expected to drive record productivity in 2024 and beyond. Guidance for Q1, 2024 adjusted EPS is 1 $0.05 $1.15 We're expecting modestly negative volume in consumer as our customers remain cautious.

Speaker 3

Consumer price cost is expected to be negative due to contract pricing resets. Industrial volumes are not expected to improve in Q1. Industrial price trends are improving, but price cost is expected to be meaningfully negative on a year over year basis due to last year's low OCC comparative and last year's higher TAM pending chip comparative. Now Roger will further discuss the outlook for the business.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Rob. If you please turn to Slide 12 for our view of segment performance drivers in 2024. Let me start with our Q1 outlook. The consumer segment, we expect volumes to be up sequentially over the Q4, but basically flat year over year from continued slower consumer spending due to retail price inflation. In rigid paper containers, we see volume is slightly down in North America versus a strong start last year, flat in Europe and some nice year over year sales growth in the rest of the world from new product launches and our expanded capacity in South America and Asia.

Speaker 4

Organic flexible volumes are projected to be flat to down slightly due to continued softness in our base soft baked goods and confections business that aided in the Q1 from the benefit of the Ennapel acquisition in Brazil. In our metal pack business, we did see recovery of our steel aerosol business in the 4th quarter offset by some softness in food. In the Q1 of 'twenty three, we expect low to mid single digit increases in both food and aerosol metal cans. In the Industrial segment, volumes are up sequentially from last quarter, but down low single digits year over year with weakness primarily in Europe and Asia As many of our end markets are tied to consumer staple and durable spending and inflationary factors that have slowed spending, We do expect higher paper mill utilization in the Q1 in our global paper system driven primarily in North America. During the Q1, there will be an outsized impact from negative price cost as input cost continue to rise and the timing of pricing updates lag.

Speaker 4

We expect the impact of negative price cost to improve over Q1 levels as we move throughout the year. Productivity remains strong as our team is effectively managing cost throughout our mill and converting systems. In the all other segment, volumes continue to remain soft with price cost offsetting some impact of the lower volumes. Now turning to the full year 2024 guidance. We expect consumer volumes to be up low single digits and productivity to remain strong.

Speaker 4

We're anticipating relatively stable material pricing and supply chain performance, but do expect consumer price cost for the year to be negative from contractual pricing resets somewhat offset by productivity. In industrial, we're not projecting volume recovery in the first half of the year. We also expect price cost remain negative from index based pricing and higher input costs, which will be weighted to the first half of the year. As you know, we've announced price increases in North America on both our URB paper and converted products effective February 1st and these increases are progressing well. The team continues to do an excellent job of expense management and we expect productivity and manufacturing efficiencies will offset negative volume impacts.

Speaker 4

And lastly, in all other, we anticipate fairly stable demand across these businesses and good productivity to continue throughout the year. So overall, we remain, I believe, appropriately conservative on volume recovery across the segments with good productivity and cost control in place until we see volume recovery. With that, back to you, Howard. Great.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Roger. As I stated in my opening remarks, we are not standing still as we progress a robust set of plans and initiatives across the enterprise. And I thought I'd just share a few of those with you. First, on the divestiture and closure front, We continue to execute our portfolio transition and footprint optimization activities. Last week, we announced closure of our Sumner, Washington URB Paper Mill.

Speaker 2

This was the oldest mill in Sunoco's North American network And the cost to recapitalize was just simply not feasible. We're moving tons to lower cost mills in the network. We've owned Sumner for over 40 years and extremely grateful for the support of this team through these years. We also announced the expected sale of our protective solutions business from our all other category or segment, which should close in the first half of twenty twenty four. This has been a great business for Sunoco with great leadership team.

Speaker 2

We know their knowledge and skills will serve them well into the future. As we continue our portfolio resolution, we remain laser focused on simplification and the alignment and fit what businesses remain in our core. Secondly, we're pleased to announce that we were recognized by Kelanova for designing, manufacturing and commercializing a paper bottom end for our rigid paper cans, the Pringles to achieve sustainable and recyclable initiatives in Europe. This was a multi year and a true partnership effort. We're pleased with the acceptance of our innovative package design in the marketplace and we look forward to sharing more about this next week in our Investor Day.

Speaker 2

In December, we were also pleased to announce the acquisition of Innopel, one of the leading flexible packaging companies based in Brazil. This is a strategic move to expand capacity for growing demand that we are feeling in Brazil, where Sunoco is now the number 2 in this market. We welcome the NFL team and know that our aligned culture, values and technical capabilities make this a winning combination. We've also taken steps this year to further align our flexible and thermoforming businesses into 1 larger scaled platform. We will be providing more details on this next step in our portfolio next week.

Speaker 2

In summary, I'd just like to leave you that Sunoco continues steady performance across our businesses. We wish volumes were better, but we are well positioned and ready to take advantage of incremental demand upticks across the portfolio. Now if you'll turn to Slide 15, I will wrap things up by saying we're looking forward to our Investor Day, 1 week from today in New York on February what is the date of the Investor Day, February 22, the next week. During this meeting, we will provide updates on our transformation, operations, our business unit plans and share thoughts on our longer term financial outlook. We look forward to hosting you live or virtually next week.

Speaker 2

So at this time, I'm more than happy we are more than happy to answer any questions that you may have. I'll turn it back over to the operator.

Operator

One moment please for our next question. And our first question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America Securities. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hi, thanks very much. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for the details. I'll ask three questions. First related to guidance, can you talk through what is baked in for price cost for the year, recognizing there are no guarantees in life.

Speaker 5

And how much of the URB and converted product increases in industrial are baked into that guidance. Relatedly, what is the effect of the divestiture of Protective solutions within all other relative to your guidance. And then last for me, Howard. 1, I know you're going to talk more about it next week, but why the integration of flexibles with thermoforming? Recognizing they're plastic based, they are somewhat different business processes.

Speaker 5

And what should we have baked in for productivity from that and broadly for the year? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Right. Thanks, George. I'll turn over the more financial related to Rob. Yes, we will talk in more detail next week about The combination and I think you'll see the rationale and why we would view this as an obvious Combine of the 2, just at a very high level, I can just say that synergistically, it makes a lot of sense. And then if you look at the markets that we serve and the customers we share, and there's more beyond that.

Speaker 2

So I'm going to leave that where it is We'll get into that one next week. Rob, do you want to talk about price cost and

Speaker 3

Yes, George. That's a good For profitability in 2024, I'd say in Q1, we're anticipating that number to be between $0.50 $0.55 of drag. We've said previously that industrial was going to have $35,000,000 of price cost in Q1 and we're expecting to see that. To your point on URB and price recovery there, we have continued to see OCC increase. Tan bending chip has kind of held constant.

Speaker 3

We're feeling really good about how that price is translating through the market, But that's something that actually takes a fair amount of time to really translate through to the P and L. So there's a bit of a drag there. Overall, we do think that industrial price costs will continue to be negative going into the second quarter, and we're hopeful for some opportunity in the second half of the year.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then just on the impact of protective?

Speaker 2

Yes, on Protexic.

Speaker 3

Yes, so Protexic, we haven't closed the deal. We're expecting to close. We have a great counterparty there. We feel really good about that transaction. On a gross basis, That divestiture would be $0.10 dilutive to EPS on a full year basis.

Speaker 3

So we are expecting to close that by the end of Q1 and have some visibility to that and it's not in the $525,000,000 of guidance.

Speaker 5

Okay. And the productivity for the year?

Speaker 3

Productivity of the year, we had a great year this year. Obviously, we continue to invest find that we see we've got a better path forward this year than we did last year, I would say. So we're expecting to have another record year.

Speaker 5

Thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 6

Good morning. You're expecting consumer volume growth in, I think, the mid single digit to high single digit range quarter over quarter in 1Q. And I'm just wondering, is it possible to maybe parse that out between and does that just reflect sort of typical seasonality or is there some End market demand improvement or deterioration or any destocking or anything, just wondering if you can kind of parse that out between those drivers?

Speaker 4

No, Anthony, it's Roger. Consumer for the Q1 is basically flat year over year. So you've got slightly down in rigid paper containers versus a strong start last year in North America. Basically flat to slightly negative And again, that's our base business, cookies, confectionery being soft offset by some of the Brazil acquisition. Metal cans is actually projected to be up low to mid single digits and we started in that way and then plastics up slightly.

Speaker 4

So you put it all together, Anthony, it's basically a flat volume for the Q1. For the year, we do see that low single digit growth for the year and that's just recovery in some of our base business with some share that we've gained in flexibles and new products and flexibles and a good result. We're very hopeful on this combination between flexibles and thermoforming. So, 1st quarter flat, Mid single digit mid to low single digits for the year with some recovery in our base business.

Speaker 2

Again, I'd say we're also cautious Optimistic. It's as we see our customers starting to market more. You're seeing more discounting actions. So the expectation is that through the course of the year, we'll start seeing some improvements as Roger just said.

Speaker 6

Okay, that's very helpful. And then in metal pack, I'm sorry if I missed this, but would you expect full year volumes to be flattish or maybe slightly up or slightly down. And then I'm just curious on aerosol, another packager has discussed aerosol potentially being under some pressure due to cost and sort of ESG concerns. I'm wondering if you're seeing anything Similar to that and then just broadly, if I think about the composition of metal pack between food cans, aerosol and maybe closures, how that business has changed or if you've kind of shifted the mix around since you acquired it?

Speaker 2

Yes. Of course, long shelf life destocking has carried a little bit further than you normally would against our portfolio. What we're seeing right now, we're expecting what we're hearing from our customers and how the year started, we're actually looking at the net being up year over year, call it low to mid single digits. Aerosol in particular is actually on the favorable side of that. If you look at the Q4 alone, year over year aerosols were actually up mid to low single digits and food was slightly down.

Speaker 2

So pretty pleased with what we're seeing in terms of recovery from a volume with a pretty weak, very weak start to last year, but very understandable Again, considering the long shelf life associated with these products. So pretty bullish about volume recoveries as we start the year, as we finish out January and as we look into next year and as we finish last year in the Q4.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Good morning, everybody. I guess going back to the Industrial segment, looking at the margins in the 4th quarter, This was the Q1 of year over year margin declines since the Q1 2021. Just curious your thoughts on the evolution from here and I know there's a lot going on with OCC and just the index based pricing pass through, etcetera. I would just love to hear your thoughts as it relates to 2024.

Speaker 4

Gosh, this is Roger. As we look at the margins for the Q1 industrial, it looks basically flat for the 4th quarter. We are seeing as we've already said, this will be our largest impact negative impact on price cost, but we're also seeing recovery in our paper mill system primarily in North America. Our global ERB system ran about 87% capacity in Q4, But our North American ERB capacity was close to 92% in Q4 and we expect that to move up into the mid-90s in Q1 with increased demand as well as the move we made on the Sumner Mill. So we expect, Yes, negative price cost, but we also expect better productivity through capacity utilization in our biggest part of our URB system, which is North America.

Speaker 2

I would add that I think the acceptance of the price increase effective mid quarter, mid first quarter has been positive. Yes.

Speaker 4

I think as you know, we're about 60% weighted the risk ETAB ending index about 20% weighted to OCC and 20% open market. So obviously we're going off to the open market now. As Rob mentioned, the 60% weighted to tab and vending shift will impact more of the 2nd quarter than the first.

Speaker 7

Okay, that's helpful. And then back to the consumer business, just The volume weakness being persistent over the last several quarters, it's not just you, it's the peer group in terms of destocking, etcetera, that's impacted The supply chain, can you just sort of characterize the competitive backdrop as we kind of progress through this lower for longer sort of volume weakness paradigm and you have a bunch of different businesses within consumer. And just would love to hear your thoughts as it relates to just the competitive backdrop in context of an industry that's typically very competitive anyway?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, we feel really good. I mean, from a share Perspective, I'm not aware of any material share loss. In fact, I've probably got a longer list of share gains. They're just not overcoming the overall segment consumer segment situation and demand profile.

Speaker 2

Frankly, if you as we talk about volumes and it's across all our businesses through the year and then you flip over and look productivity performance and I thought about this before, we've invested extremely heavily in all our businesses in the core and are continuing to see our productivity increase. And as Volumes do recovery and leverage starts really materializing or normalizing within our facilities, I'm pretty bullish about how we can convert that into even higher productivity than we've been seeing thus far. But no, from a share position, We're in good shape from a share position as far as I'm concerned.

Speaker 7

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Howard, Rob, Roger, good morning. I want to revisit the integration that George initially asked about of flexibles with thermoforming. And just bigger, I guess, picture context around, You guys, I think, have talked about trying to build a franchise position in rigid metal packaging. I'm curious if this move changes that perspective. You guys have talked about the sustainability attributes of original packaging.

Speaker 8

And then maybe if anything changes from your perspective, and is there further risk to your outlook, especially in the tinplate business, Give the announcement this morning from Cliffs to idle facility here in North America.

Speaker 2

Yes. Again, we'll get into this in more detail, and I think it will be a lot more obvious to all of you next week Love why it makes sense to combine these under one leadership team. And as we look at So look, we do think it's going to open up the aperture in terms of acquisition within that side of the business, but it doesn't take away from any of the other core businesses at all. It So this makes and you'll see that next week makes good solid sense. The Cleveland, not really a big surprise as related to the mill, Not a material impact to us at all from a supply position.

Speaker 2

And that's really all I can say to that. We don't view that So as an impact to us in any way this year or in future years going forward, depending on how long they do intend to keep that mill down.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then, the recovery in consumer, we're reading about Cocoa hitting new highs in terms of commodity costs, how has the recent dialogue Going with your customers in terms of expectations there, I mean, we're reading articles about smaller chocolate bars and things like that. I'm just Curious if that's baked into your outlook?

Speaker 4

Okay. I think as we said in my opening comments, I think we're being fairly conservative Action on volume, our customers are planning to react to the new weight loss drugs they're playing for. So far, they say they see no impact on that. Really, it goes in my view, it goes back to the pricing on the shelf. And Howard mentioned it earlier, there's a lot of pressure from the big retailers now on our customers to start to bring their prices down.

Speaker 4

You're starting to see more promotions. All these Baked goods, snacks, confection are discretionary items and they hit a price point where it's really impacted their volume. What we're hearing from our customers is they're going to be more aggressive on promotions and more aggressive on regaining some of the volume that's been lost over the last year. So That's what we're depending on along with the good job our team does on new products and like the paper bottom for the PringleScan for Kelanova And the global expansion on those packages have been fantastic. That's why we're more confident about a recovery in consumer volumes as we go throughout the year.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank you. And one last one, I apologize, just for posterity's sake. The divestiture that you all announced, If I heard you correctly, assuming it closes at the end of Q1, it's maybe a $0.07 or $0.08 drag to the midpoint of your guidance. Is that what I'm hearing?

Speaker 8

And then on the URB and downstream related products price increases. Are you assuming or embedding in your outlook today that the 20% of the open market, There's price realization there and then we'll wait to see this Friday what's recognized by RISI, maybe specifically What's embedded in the Q1 outlook or H1 outlook? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Gabe, yes. So we are we There we expect the sale of Protexic to close at the end of Q1. And if it does, then that will be a $0.07 drag on the year we anticipate. For industrial pricing, we're seeing that flow through certainly The trade market sales, Howard and Roger have said, is flowing through well. That's a component of our current guide.

Speaker 9

Thank you. Thanks.

Operator

And our next question comes from Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Maybe kind of first more housekeeping.

Speaker 5

What did the metal over

Speaker 9

You've got embedded for 2024?

Speaker 3

We lost you for a second there, Mark, but I'm assuming you're asking about metal price overlap. For the year, it'll be slightly less than what it was last year. So it's Actually a slight positive on a year over year basis. In Q1, because of the timing, it's going to be net neutral.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. Hopefully, you can hear me now. Do you so what did it end up being in 2023?

Speaker 3

Yes, so last year it was $41,000,000 negative. This year we anticipate just the Q1 component of that to repeat.

Speaker 9

Okay. And can you quantify that for us?

Speaker 3

Sure. It was between $20,000,000 $25,000,000

Speaker 9

Okay, super. And then On the URB, I think you mentioned that you expect to be in the mid-90s post the actions you've been taking in North America And demand getting a little bit better. Where are you now in terms of integration And URB in North America, maybe start with that?

Speaker 4

You're talking about integrated volume, we're in the we're about 55%, 56% integrated volume now, Mark, With the RTS acquisition.

Operator

And I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back to Lisa Weeks for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you all for joining us today. If you have any follow ups, will be around after the call to answer your questions or contact me to schedule a follow-up. As Howard stated, we look forward to hosting you at our Investor Analyst Day in New York next week on February 22. This will be an in person event and a webcast will also be available. Registration details are on our website.

Speaker 1

We also look forward to seeing you on the road at our planned conferences and events in the coming months, And we'll talk to you again in May when we report our Q1 results. Thanks to everyone and have a great day.

Operator

And this concludes today's

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Key Takeaways

  • Sunoco delivered its 2nd best annual financial performance in 125 years in 2023, achieving a 15.7% EBITDA margin despite lower volumes, with record operating cash flow of $883 million, free cash flow of $600 million and adjusted EPS of $5.26.
  • In Q4, net sales were $1.64 billion (–2% year-over-year) as volumes fell 3.4% and prices were negative 2.3%, yet the company generated $49 million in record productivity, resulting in $236 million of adjusted EBITDA at a 14.4% margin.
  • For 2024, Sunoco guides adjusted EPS of $5.10–$5.40, backed by low single-digit consumer volume growth, only limited industrial recovery, meaningful negative price-cost impacts and higher depreciation, while targeting $1.05–1.10 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $650–750 million of operating cash flow.
  • Strategic portfolio actions include closing the aging Sumner URB paper mill, divesting the Protective Solutions unit, acquiring Brazil’s Innopel to bolster flexible packaging and combining flexibles with thermoforming to scale operations and drive productivity.
  • Capital allocation remained disciplined with $172 million of debt paid down (net debt/EBITDA of 2.8×), a 40th consecutive annual dividend increase and continued focus on accretive M&A.
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Earnings Conference Call
Sonoco Products Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00