Empire State Realty Trust Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 21, 2024

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Q4 core FFO of $0.25 per diluted share beat guidance by $0.05, representing a 15% year-over-year increase driven by strong same-store NOI and Observatory results.
  • Positive Sentiment: The company achieved its 8th consecutive quarter of positive leased absorption and reached over 92% leased in its Manhattan office portfolio, with nearly 1,000,000 square feet leased in Q4.
  • Positive Sentiment: Empire State Building Observatory NOI returned to pre-COVID levels at $94 million in 2023 on 73% admissions, and it was ranked the #1 U.S. attraction by TripAdvisor for the second straight year.
  • Positive Sentiment: With $1.2 billion in liquidity, no floating-rate debt and a net debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio of 5.4x (the lowest among NYC‐focused REITs), ESRT maintains a best-in-class balance sheet to support growth and opportunistic investments.
  • Neutral Sentiment: For 2024, ESRT forecasts core FFO of $0.90–$0.94 per share, same-store NOI flat to up 2%, commercial occupancy rising to 87–89%, and Observatory NOI of $94–$102 million, with risks from tourism and weather.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Empire State Realty Trust Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Empire State Realty Trust 4th Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. As a reminder, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Heather Houston, Senior Vice President, Chief Counsel, Corporate and Secretary.

Operator

Thank you. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us today for Empire State Realty Trust's Q4 2023 earnings conference call. In addition to the press release distributed yesterday, a quarterly supplemental package with further detail on our results and our latest investor presentation were posted in the Investors section of the company's website at esrpreit.com. On today's call, management's prepared remarks and answers to your questions may contain forward looking statements as defined in applicable securities laws, including those related to market conditions, property operations, capital expenditures, income expense, financial results and proposed transactions and events. As a reminder, forward looking statements represent management's current estimates.

Speaker 1

They are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ from those discussed today. Empire State Realty Trust assumes no obligation to update any forward looking statement in the future. We encourage listeners to review the more detailed discussions related to these forward looking statements and the company's filings with the SEC. During today's call, we will discuss certain non GAAP financial measures such as FFO, modified and core FFO, NOI, same store property cash NOI, EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, which we believe are meaningful in evaluating the company's performance. The definitions and reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the earnings release and supplemental package, each available on the company's website.

Speaker 1

Now, I will turn the call over to Tony Malkin, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Heather. It is great to have you back after your parental leave, and good afternoon to everyone. ESRT is pleased to report a strong Q4 to close out what was a very productive year for our top of tier portfolio. We have a modernized, amenitized, energy efficient portfolio of properties in great locations, absolute commitment to put points on the Board under any circumstance and a balance sheet that allows us to do so. Our team's focus and relentless effort once again delivered results.

Speaker 2

In the 4th quarter, FFO came in $0.05 above expectations, dollars 0.015 from nonrecurring items, the majority from recurring operations. Christina, our new President, will handle that in more depth in her comments. We delivered our 8th consecutive quarter of positive least percentage absorption. We achieved our 10th consecutive quarter of positive mark to market lease spreads for Manhattan office. Our Observatory performance continues and our balance sheet remains best in class.

Speaker 2

Our top of tier portfolio sees continued demand, and we leased nearly 1,000,000 square feet. Lease up progress over the last year increased our Manhattan office leased percentage to over 92% and increased leased absorption by 250 basis points. The Empire State Building is now just shy of 92% leased. That is an increase of 720 basis points over the last year. Within our Broadway campus, the leased rate at 1359 Broadway increased 7 30 basis points over the last year.

Speaker 2

Tom will discuss some of the quality tenant leases, which contribute to this progress. ESRT's commitment to service and tenant relationships combined with our modernized, amenitized, energy efficient portfolio of properties in great locations drives our consistent leasing volumes. Over 2,600,000 square feet of tenant expansions in our portfolio since our IPO, quite significant relative to our entire portfolio that totals 9,300,000 square feet today, proves the value of our market proposition. I would like to share some words from recently signed tenants as to why they chose ESRT's buildings. All of the following are quotes: Industry Leading Facilities and Client Services, Iconic, Prime Location, blend of heritage and contemporary design, top tier amenities, forefront of sustainability, astute partner, commuter friendly, energy efficient, bolsters teamwork and innovation.

Speaker 2

That is the end of the quotes from tenants. You can see more tenant testimonials on Slides 11 12 are at our investor presentation. The right offices in the right buildings at the right prices in the right locations with the right landlord are critical components of company culture and employee collaboration, recruitment and retention. ESRT's leasing successes are built upon the $1,000,000,000 we invested in portfolio upgrades to consolidate floor plates and gut renovate our buildings so that our assets are fully modernized, leaders in energy efficiency, competitive and attractive to lease. We maintain a best in class balance sheet and that makes a big difference to tenants and brokers in today's environment.

Speaker 2

And we service the deepest segment of the tenant demand of the New York City office market at our accessible price points. Our goal is to get the best deals in good times, get the deals in challenged times and draw consistent leasing volumes through cycles. We know what we have to do and we remain absolutely focused. And we believe with the right capital partners with whom we can share our balance sheet and expertise, the current debt issues create opportunities for us to grow that success amongst select additional office buildings. The Observatory continues to perform.

Speaker 2

2023 saw the Observatory NOI return back to pre COVID levels. And that was just with 20 excuse me, just with 73% of the admissions relative to 2019. For years, we have put in the hard work to build exceptional brand awareness of our iconic authentic brand.

Speaker 3

In

Speaker 2

2023, the Empire State Building had over 388 $1,000,000,000 global media impressions and generated globally nearly 8 $100,000,000 in advertising value equivalency. The Empire State Building Observatory is the authentic New York experience and was ranked the number one attraction in the United States by TripAdvisor for the 2nd year in a row. Our Observatory's cash flows are reliable through all economic cycles, new competition and a pandemic as shown on Slide 13 of our investor presentation. We now focus on year over year NOI growth. Tenants look to partner with a financially stable landlord who will maintain high quality standards at their assets.

Speaker 2

We can allocate capital as we think best to achieve return for our investors, be it capital recycling, new acquisitions or share repurchases. ESRT has been the quantitative sustainability leader for more than a decade and sustainability is integrated into every decision we make from property to FP and A and reporting. Our industry leadership and sustainability and healthy building performance matters more and more each year to tenants who come to us based upon our reputation for successful partnerships with companies and their employees in sustainability. This quarter, we were pleased to be recognized as one of Newsweek's most responsible companies. And on the governance front, we were awarded Governance Intelligence's 2023 Corporate Governance Award for Best Small Cap Proxy Statement and nominee for Best Shareholder Engagement.

Speaker 2

ESRT's 2024 priorities remain unchanged lease space, sell tickets to the Observatory, manage the balance sheet and achieve our sustainability goals. These actions together enhance shareholder value. We are in a position to take advantage of opportunities created through market disruptions and capital dislocation. We believe in New York City and we have 4 diverse ways to play it: an office portfolio that is the top of our tier and targets the deepest market segment our Observatory that is the number one ranked attraction in the United States, our high foot traffic everyday street retail and a growing multifamily platform. Tom and Christina will provide more detail on our progress and how we plan to accomplish these goals in 2024.

Speaker 2

Before I hand things over to Tom, a big congratulations to Christina for her just announced promotion to President and Steve Horn to EVP, CFO and Chief Accounting Officer. In Christina's nearly 4 years with ESRT, she has grown with experience, led with strength, contributed materially to the sector leading successes of ESRT and has been a great partner. Her well deserved promotion recognizes her capabilities, responsibilities and value add to ESRT and reflects our success in the attraction, development and promotion of talent for our present and future opportunities. I will let Christina comment more directly on Steve. And I assure you that I have no plan to depart ESRT and Tom Durels is as committed as ever.

Speaker 2

Now on to Tom.

Speaker 4

Hey, thanks Tony and good afternoon everyone. We had another strong year in 2023 and have the people and the properties to deliver strong results in 2024. During the full year of 2023, we leased over 950,000 square feet in our commercial portfolio. In our Manhattan office portfolio, we leased 862,000 square feet, which was our highest annual volume since 2019. Our new lease spreads averaged 14% for the year, which exceeds the prior 3 year average.

Speaker 4

We achieved our highest new starting rents for office leases at the Empire State Building and One Grand Central Place. We signed major office leases with quality tenants, including CAPCO, Greater New York Mutual Insurance Company, LinkedIn, Rising Ground, Starbucks and STV to name a few. And we welcomed new retail tenants like Ghirardelli, who will open their first ever New York store at the Empire State Building next to the Observatory entrance. That 34th Street Frontage now hosts the Starbucks Reserve, Chipotle Giardelli, AT and T and has one more retail opportunity to lease and 2 new sushi restaurants, 1 at the base of 1359 Broadway and 1 in the Empire State Building, which will serve as great amenities to our office tenants. Our property team delivered a strong close to the year and in the Q4, we achieved positive mark to market lease spreads across our Manhattan office portfolio for the 10th consecutive quarter.

Speaker 4

It was our 8th consecutive quarter in which we achieved positive leased rate absorption for our commercial portfolio. We increased our Manhattan office lease percentage by 250 basis points compared to a year ago and 20 basis points quarter over quarter to 92.1 percent, which reflects an increase of 510 basis points since the end of 2021. We leased 164,000 square feet in our commercial portfolio, including 135,000 square feet in our Manhattan office portfolio at 5.8% positive mark to market rent spreads. The weighted average lease duration in our Manhattan office portfolio increased to 11.9 years, which is the highest it has been in the last 2 years. Notable leases signed in the Q4 include a full floor 17 year new office lease with Greater New York Mutual Insurance Company for 52,000 Square Feet at the Empire State Building.

Speaker 4

Greater New York Mutual will relocate its offices from Madison Avenue to the Empire State Building because of our industry leading sustainability measures and excellent tenant only amenities, which aid in employee recruitment, retention and productivity.

Speaker 2

We

Speaker 4

signed a full floor renewal deals with this quarter with Ingram Content Group, Anaplan and Fairfield Maxwell. Ingram renewed their lease for 12 years in a 14,000 square foot space at 1400 Broadway. This marks our 3rd collaboration with Ingram and reflects their desire for our quality services, amenities and convenient location. Additionally, our partnership with Fairfield Maxwell has spanned over 28 years. We signed a 10 year new full floor office lease with Hanover Street Capital for 13,000 square feet at 250 West 57th Street and we signed leases for 11 pre built office suites that total 59,000 square feet.

Speaker 4

Additionally, as shown on Page 10 of our supplemental, we have $51,000,000 in incremental cash revenue from signed lease do not commence and free rent burn off. And we're off to a great start in 2024. We recently signed a 16 year, 68,000 square foot expansion lease with Burlington at 1400 Broadway. Burlington has expanded with us 3 times with this latest expansion along with an extension of their current lease, Burlington will occupy a total of 170,000 square feet for a 16 year lease term. And we just signed an 11 year 57,000 square foot new lease with Sol De Janeiro, a loss attained subsidiary at 1 Grand Central Place.

Speaker 4

We have a healthy leasing pipeline for 2024 and saw an uptick in tour volume in the 4th quarter, reaching our 2nd highest level since 2019 that should drive leasing activity in the year ahead. We have modest lease expirations in 2024 with 578,000 square feet set to expire and after the Burlington and Sol De Janeiro leases that were just signed, 320,000 square feet of that is covered by expected renewals, relocations and new leases and only 183,000 square feet are known vacates and 75,000 square feet is undecided at this time. Based on our annual average of approximately 650,000 square feet of new leases signed in the past 4 years, we are well positioned to increase our lease percentage in 2024. In today's market, there is a flight to property, balance sheet and sustainability quality at every price tier and ESRT offers the top of tier offering in our price bracket. We attract tenants who want product that is modernized, amenitized, energy efficient and well located in their mass transit and neighborhood amenities, financially stable ownership, high quality service and indoor environmental quality at our price points.

Speaker 4

More and more, we hear tenants are sensitive to rental costs and look for a value proposition as they seek the best office space they can get for their money that will complement their employee and workspace strategy. Tenants in our price range make up the deepest part of the Manhattan leasing market. And as we show on Page 13 of our investor presentation, since 2019, nearly 50% of market leases were for $50 to $75 per square foot rents, which is our sweet spot. Our unique product is competitive and attractive to tenants as demonstrated by our excellent leasing results, 92% leased percentage for Manhattan office. Of course, we did the hard work over many years.

Speaker 4

We invested in our assets to provide fully modernized, amenitized product, committed early to build all our tenant spaces with the latest in sustainability and IEQ technology, which sets us apart from competitors and has brought up more and more frequently in our broker and tenant leasing discussions. We fostered enduring tenant relationships through a service oriented culture and maintain a solid balance sheet, which Christina will speak to, which is more important than ever to attract and renew quality tenants as they consider to making long term lease commitments. The average occupancy in our multifamily portfolio was 98.1% in the 4th quarter and continues to benefit from strong market fundamentals that validates our prior investments into these assets. So once again, we had a solid Q4 that completed a very good year in 2023. We signed over 950,000 square feet of commercial leases and increased our Manhattan office portfolio lease percentage by 250 basis points from a year ago to 92.1 percent at year end, which represents a 510 basis points increase since the end of 2021.

Speaker 4

We are well positioned to lease space and achieve positive leased absorption again in 2024 with modest lease expirations for the year and a healthy pipeline of new leases to start the year. And we continue to see impressive performance in our multifamily portfolio. Thank you. And before I turn the call over to Christina, I want to extend my congratulations to both Christina and Steve on your well deserved promotions. Having worked closely alongside both of you these past few years, I have immense confidence in your abilities and the value you bring to ESRT.

Speaker 4

I'm also optimistic that our ongoing partnership will yield fresh opportunities and enhanced value for ESRT shareholders. Kristina?

Speaker 5

Thanks, Tom. For the Q4 of 2023, we reported core FFO of $68,000,000 or $0.25 per diluted share, which increased 15% year over year. Was largely driven by strong same store property cash NOI growth, strong performance from our Observatory business as well as higher interest income year over year. Results for the quarter included approximately $0.015 of non recurring items mostly within other income. Same store property cash NOI increased 11.3% year over year, primarily driven by higher revenues from early cash rent commencement, free rent burn off, higher tenant expense reimbursement and higher other income.

Speaker 5

These revenue items came in ahead of expectations embedded in our same store property cash NOI guidance for the year. The higher revenues in the 4th quarter were partially offset by an increase in property operating expenses, which we anticipated in our guidance, albeit the increase was less than what we expected due to a few successful tax appeals that resulted in refunds as well as some repair and maintenance cost savings relative to expectations. Overall, as mentioned, there were approximately $4,000,000 or $0.015 of non recurring items that benefited same store NOI in the 4th quarter. In the Q4, the Observatory generated net operating income of $27,000,000 an increase of 13% year over year. Revenue per capita remains high and admissions continue to improve year over year.

Speaker 5

Observatory expense was $9,300,000 in the 4th quarter. For the full year 2023, the Observatory generated NOI of $94,000,000 and that exceeded the midpoint of our guidance for the year. For the full year, we reported core FFO of $0.93 per diluted share. Within 4th quarter results, each of the building blocks, same store revenues, same store expenses, Observatory NOI that we provided in our full year guidance table happened to skew to the favorable side, which contributed to the large beat relative to our 2023 FFO guidance. As mentioned in the release, 2023 results also included approximately $0.03 of items that were non recurring in nature and also benefited from higher than expected interest income.

Speaker 5

As of December 31, 2023, the company had total liquidity of $1,200,000,000 which was comprised of $347,000,000 of cash and $850,000,000 of undrawn capacity on our revolving credit facility. At quarter end, the company had net debt of $2,200,000,000 with a weighted average interest rate of 3.9% and a weighted average term to maturity of 5.4 years. We have strong liquidity, no floating rate debt exposure, a well laddered debt maturity schedule and the lowest leverage among all New York City focused REITs at 5.4 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA. ESRT owns 100 percent of our commercial assets with no complex JV structures and that allows for great opportunity flexibility for future financing and capitalization. With this balance sheet flexibility, over the past 2 years, we actively recycled capital in a tax efficient manner, pursued investment opportunities that are additive to our New York City focused portfolio and repurchased our shares and we will continue to allocate capital to generate shareholder value.

Speaker 5

Now on to our outlook for 2024. We expect 20 24 core FFO to range between $0.90 $0.94 per diluted share, which compares to 2023 core FFO of $0.90 per share excluding non recurring items. Let me spend a moment to discuss the assumptions used in our guidance. In 2024, we expect same store cash NOI to be modestly positive at the midpoint with a range of down 1% to up 2% relative to 2023 levels. Within this range, we expect positive revenue growth, which assumes commercial occupancy of 87% to 89% by year end 2024, up from 86.3% at year end 20 23, driven by a strong pipeline of signed leases not yet commenced and manageable lease expirations in 2024.

Speaker 5

On the expense side, we expect an approximate 6% to 8% increase in forecasted property operating expenses and real estate 2023 operating expenses ultimately increased 6.8% from the prior year, about 120 basis points lighter than the 8% year over year growth anticipated in our 2023 guidance driven by tax refunds, some R and M cost savings and timing changes from certain projects that will now fall into 2024. 2024 property operating expenses also reflect inflationary cost increases. Turning to the Observatory, we expect 2024 Observatory NOI to be approximately $94,000,000 to $102,000,000 up from $94,000,000 in 2023. This NOI guidance assumes Observatory expenses of approximately $9,000,000 per quarter for 2024. We continue to leave room within our 2024 FFO guidance range for uncertainty around tourism fluctuations and bad weather that could impact results in any given quarter.

Speaker 5

Please note that the guidance estimates and assumptions just described do not include the impact of any meaningful future lease termination fee income or any unannounced future property acquisitions, dispositions or capital markets activity. In summary, over the last year, the company has executed well on its priorities. We leased over 950,000 square feet of total for our high quality assets and the unique value proposition and balance sheet strength that we offer as a landlord. Importantly, we have already invested to fully modernize our portfolio and our portfolio now reaps the rewards of those forward looking efforts. We are 92% leased and positioned to lease up further.

Speaker 5

Our Observatory business remains TripAdvisor's number one attraction in the U. S. For the 2nd consecutive year and has seen a strong recovery and we expect continued growth into 2024. The company continues to manage our best in class balance sheet prudently and strategically with net debt to EBITDA, which continue to trend down to 5.4 times and strong liquidity to take advantage of attractive investment opportunities that may emerge in this period of uncertainty and capital dislocation. And our 4th leg of growth multifamily has performed well and adds to the resiliency of ESRT's cash flow.

Speaker 5

Before I turn it over to Q and A, I'd like to congratulate Steve on his promotion to Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer. Steve has been a tremendous asset to ESRT since he joined us in December 2020 and this promotion was a natural part of our succession plan that we had in mind when we brought Steve on board. I will continue to work closely with Steve on his growth and development in his new role at ESRT. And with that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for Q and A. Operator?

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer Our first questions come from the line of John Kim with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 6

Thank you and congratulations to Christine and Steve. I wanted to ask about Flagstar. I realize it's a little of deja vu potentially, but how concerned are you with Flagstar's lease given NYCB stock price? And it looks like they gave up a little bit of space at 1333 Broadway. Was that already known or what's that push having more space that they may get out?

Speaker 4

Yes, John. The get back of the small space at 1333 Broadway was anticipated. It had previously been leased as temporary space, in connection with the larger expansion previously done at 1400 Broadway. Flexstar leases 313,000 Square Feet to 1400 Broadway, they're in place fully escalated rents is about $58 a foot. This compares favorably low compared to say where the lease was just done with Burlington in the low 60s per square foot.

Speaker 4

Remember, Flagstar only represents about 3.4% of our total commercial portfolio rent and about 2.5% of our total annual revenue. Beyond that, I'd say that, look 1400 Broadway is a fantastic building. It's 100 percent leased. It's fully modernized. We have a new tenant lounge, new town hall facility.

Speaker 4

We have the tenants have access to campus amenities. Burlington just expanded by 68,000 square feet. So whatever happens with Flexstar, we're confident that our leasing at 1400 Broadwood will do very, very well.

Speaker 6

Okay. My second question is on opportunistic investments. It seems like there's a lot of opportunities that are attractive on the debt side. I was wondering if you could comment on that. And I know you've been buying repurchasing shares recently.

Speaker 6

I wanted to know if you would consider going the other route, raising capital either your own stock or third party capital and go on defense of this because you can make that argument that it would be accretive depending on the investments you make?

Speaker 2

Sure. Thanks, John. Tony here. We believe the crisis created by capital dislocation, rising rates and heavy near term market maturities will create a once in a generation opportunity to buy into certain New York City office assets with great upside. We have unique intellectual property and a track record of success in the redevelopment of assets in the top of tier modernized, amenitized energy efficient buildings, which are competitive and attractive to lease.

Speaker 2

We continue to look for these opportunities, and of course, we'll be prudent in our underwritings. We know the costs required to create prime assets. We'll be patient to find the right deals and the right partners. We always look. We'll let you know if we find anything.

Speaker 2

At the same time, we are omnivorous opportunivores. So we have acquired resi and we've acquired retail. We'll keep our eyes open for opportunities in any of the above. I don't know whether or not Christina or Tom wants to add anything to that response.

Speaker 5

The only thing is to address John's other question on access to capital. And all I would say is, as we've demonstrated, we evaluate actions and capital allocation decisions in the best interest of our stakeholders. So, wouldn't redline any options, but really depends on the situation. I think too soon to roll either way, what you do in offensive equity issuance. But we're certainly looking at opportunities, as Tony mentioned.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. Thank you.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Thank

Operator

you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Griffin with Citi. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 7

Great, thanks. Maybe going back to the guidance for a second. If you strip out the $0.015 of non core in the quarter, it should do about $0.235 for a run rate for 2024. If you look at the other pieces, it looks like you're getting about a $0.05 benefit from the Observatory NOI increase, call it a $0.01 benefit from occupancy. I was just curious, are there any other puts and takes on the guidance?

Speaker 7

How should we think about kind of getting to that midpoint?

Speaker 5

I think on the guidance, as always, we point to our building blocks and we try to provide a lot of transparency. And what you could see is same store NOI, cash property NOI is roughly flattish and we do pick up the midpoint, does represent a pickup from where we ended 2023 for the Observatory. So that gets us to our initial guidance range with the revenue at modest growth, modest positive growth and same store operating expenses at 6% to 8% up and will continue to narrow as we have better visibility over the course of the year.

Speaker 7

All right. That was helpful. And then just maybe going back to kind of capital allocation opportunities, you've kind of stressed in the past that the simple structure, no joint ventures out there. But it seems like there are opportunities. I've reasoned that there's nothing off the table.

Speaker 7

If the right joint venture opportunity came up, would you entertain it or that's just not part of the long term strategy?

Speaker 2

Griff, Tony here. Absolutely, we'll entertain the right structure, the right capital at the right price. And if it's more logical to incorporate the use of third party capital, we will.

Speaker 7

Great. That's it for me. Thanks for the time.

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Camille Bonnell with Bank of America. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 8

Congrats everyone on a solid quarter and to Christina and Steve on your promotions. Last quarter, you had around 200,000 square feet of leases in negotiation. And looking at the activity you've done to date, it looks like you were able to get those all over the line. So following up on earlier comments, Tom, could you quantify your leasing pipeline and what's currently under contract?

Speaker 4

Sure. Well, look, first of all, Camille, we're off to a great start in the Q1 with approximately 125,000 square feet of new leases signed with between the Burlington and, Solvay Generale leases. We're constantly adding to our pipeline, but where we sit right now is we have roughly about, call about 190,000 square feet of additional leases out in various stages of negotiation or final term sheets. Most of that is in for in our Manhattan office properties around 160,000 square feet. That's our current pipeline in addition to the Burlington and Sol leases that we just signed.

Speaker 4

In addition to that, we have probably a few 100000 square feet of active proposals in various stages of negotiations. Now, not all of those would transition into leases, but it gives you an indication that we have a good healthy pipeline of activity and this in the backdrop of very modest lease expirations and very little exposure to tenant move outs in 2024. So I think we're incredibly well positioned to improve our leased percentage in 2024.

Speaker 8

Appreciate the color there. Just shifting to your liquidity position, it's very strong and your earnings outlook has some good momentum. I was wondering how you're balancing various capital allocation decisions with the potential to increase the dividend. Do you expect to grow this at some point in the near term? Or do you need to see more visibility in operations first?

Speaker 5

So on the dividend, what we've mentioned is it will track the business. However, we've also mentioned that we do have a net operating loss carry forward in the balance of approximately $100,000,000 in an environment where capital markets conditions are uncertain, increased cost of capital, it does seem prudent if we have the ability to monetize on that and utilize the cash to that's

Speaker 1

something that we

Speaker 5

should consider. So our current dividend that's something that we should consider. So our current dividend level allows us to continue to pay dividend very Thank you.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Jay Paskett with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 3

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could just help bridge the gap between the total office and retail portfolio forecast, which you show on Page 14 of the supplemental and the just 170 basis point in occupancy that guidance implies. I assume a lot of this has to do with the signed leases not yet commenced, but I just wanted to put those 2 buckets together.

Speaker 4

Sure. I think we give a lot of detail on that Page 14, but I think that more simply, if you go back to my earlier comments about the fact that we only have about 183,000 square feet of known vacates that are not covered. The balance of our leases expiring in 2024 have been covered by expected renewals, relocations or new leasing and then only about 75,000 square feet of undecided tenants. Now were you looking for something did that answer your question or did you have something else on office and retail?

Speaker 3

I guess just to that point of the roughly 400,000 square feet of the signed leases not yet commenced, would you say that the majority of that will commence in 2024? Is that kind of over the next 2 years when that will commence?

Speaker 4

We give detail on the commencement of those leases on Page 10 of the supplemental. You can see the quarter by which by when each by when lease not yet commenced are expected to commence and contribute cash NOI.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you. And then just on the debt maturity front, I know you have a mortgage coming due at the end of the year and then a little over $315,000,000 coming due in early 2025. So just any color on what the plans are for that

Speaker 7

would be great.

Speaker 5

We continue to discuss with our lending partners. I don't have an update to provide now. But as always, we have productive discussions and we'll provide an update to the market, as soon as it's available.

Speaker 3

Great. Thanks. That's all for me.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Tony Malkin, Chairman and CEO for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thanks very much. ESRT is the pure play New York City REIT, and we are well positioned to perform and build on our well diversified income stream. We are confident the company's ability execute on our goals and drive further growth for shareholders in 2024. Many thanks to our great team who work incredibly hard, and I have every confidence we'll continue to do a great job on behalf of stakeholders. Thank you all for your participation in today's call.

Speaker 2

We look forward to the chance to meet with many of you at non deal roadshows, conferences and property tours in the months ahead. Until then, thank you for your interest. Onward and upward.

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

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