GFL Environmental Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 21, 2024

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning. My name is Drew, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the GFL Environmental 4th Quarter 2020 I will now hand over to Patrick DiVigi, Founder and CFO of GFL. Please go ahead when you're ready.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone to today's call and thank you for joining us. This morning, we will be reviewing our results for the Q4 and providing our guidance for 2024. I'm joined this morning by Luke Pelosi, our CFO, who will take us through the forward looking disclaimer before we get into detail.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Patrick. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining. We have filed our earnings press release, which includes important information. The press release is available on our website. We have prepared a presentation to accompany this call that is also available on our website.

Speaker 2

During this call, we will be making some forward looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and U. S. Securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate may occur in the future. These forward looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set out in our filings with the Canadian and U. S.

Speaker 2

Securities regulators. Any forward looking statement is not a guarantee of future performance and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward looking statements. These forward looking statements speak only as of today's date, and we do not assume any obligation to update these statements whether as a result of new information, future events and developments or otherwise. This call will include a discussion of certain non IFRS measures. A reconciliation of these non IFRS measures can be found in our filings with the Canadian and U.

Speaker 2

S. Securities regulators. I will now turn the call back over to Patrick.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Luc. Throughout 2023, we continue to implement our strategy by building on the strength of our best in class platform. Some of the highlights of the year included executing on our pricing strategy across our solid waste platform, retrieving industry leading core price of 9.8%, the highest in company history and leading to outsized margin expansion. Growing environmental services revenue by over 17% and achieving best in class adjusted EBITDA margins of 26%. Deleveraging almost a full turn to over 50% was coming from organic growth of the business.

Speaker 1

Optimizing our footprint was to the best of 3 non core U. S. Solid waste markets for $1,600,000,000 at mid teens multiples and advancing our initiatives related to the quality of earnings and asset utilization in both our solid waste and environmental service segments. This includes the intentional shedding of low margin business and non core revenue that do not satisfy our return requirements. The impact of the steps we took are reflected in our exceptional performance for 2023, once again demonstrating the ability of our team to create long term equity value for our shareholders.

Speaker 1

4th quarter adjusted EBITDA margin grew 200 basis points from the prior year with 2.45 basis points of underlying solid waste margin expansion and 180 basis points of margin expansion from our Environmental Services business. Adjusted EBITDA grew over 21% from the prior year, excluding the impact divestitures. The record high voluntary labor turnover rate that we saw in 2021 2022 as well as supply chain constraints continue to sequentially improve and we expect to continue to see the positive impact of these trends into 2024. On acquisitions, in 2023, we deployed approximately $900,000,000 into 30 9 acquisitions. We expect these acquisitions to generate revenue of approximately $355,000,000 on an annualized basis.

Speaker 1

We also deployed approximately $275,000,000 into incremental organic initiatives, primarily in RNG and EPR related opportunities. We continue to believe that these opportunities represent some of the best risk adjusted returns that we have seen and we will provide significant upside to our long term free cash flow trajectory in the coming years. Turning to our balance sheet, we ended the year with net leverage of about 4.1 times, almost a full term lower than where we ended 2022. On our calls over the last year, we have talked about the ability of the business to naturally delever over time. We saw this play out in 2023 with the majority of the decrease in net leverage coming from organic growth in the base business.

Speaker 1

Our market selection, stronger balance sheet and continued execution on the self help levers in the portfolio position us for a very attractive 2024 and beyond. Luke will walk us through in more detail, but high level, we're guiding to another year of strong revenue growth across the board with solid waste pricing of 6% to 6.5% and mid single digit organic top line revenue growth in Environmental Services. We expect that adjusted EBITDA margins will organically expand another 100 basis points in each of our segments, which we expect to be industry leading and support our adjusted EBITDA guide of 2,215,000,000 dollars In solid waste, outsides price cost spread is expected to be the primary driver of this margin improvement. We also expect that the cost impact on productivity, cost of risk and repairs and maintenance from labor turnover trends and supply chain constraints will moderate and potentially provide upside to our guidance. Solid waste volumes are expected to be relatively flat when excluding the drag from intentional shedding of low margin and non core volume.

Speaker 1

Our guidance assumes commodity price consistent with Q4 prices, which are lower than current levels. Any sustained price improvement will provide incremental upside to our guide. Included in the guidance is approximately $30,000,000 of incremental adjusted EBITDA from RNG, all from our Arbor Hills facility that was commissioned in late 2023. Our guidance assumes a conservative volume ramp at this facility throughout 2024, meaning that there is potential upside as the operation of the facility matures. In addition, we expect to commission another 2 to 3 facilities in 2024, none of which are factored into our current guidance.

Speaker 1

As we set out in our capital allocation framework provided at the end of November, we remain committed to making disciplined capital allocation decisions while continuing to delever the business with a focus on moving toward an investment grade credit rating in the medium term. The incremental growth investments we plan to make in 2024 are estimated to be in the range of $250,000,000 to 300,000,000 dollars and will focus on high ROIC sustainability related investments around EPR and RNG. We expect to realize adjusted EBITDA from our EPR related CapEx investments starting in Q4 of 2024, ramping to a full EBITDA run rate of $80,000,000 to 100,000,000 in 2026. Given our 1st mover advantage and strong asset positioning in Canada, including our state of the art MRF network, we have already won a significant number of accretive EPR related contracts. We are optimistic that we'll be able to capitalize on additional contracts that we have yet to be awarded.

Speaker 1

As a result, we believe that our EPR opportunity will be significantly larger than the $80,000,000 to $100,000,000 that we have already been awarded and we expect to provide updates on new contract awards in the coming months. On RNG, we now expect the first contributions from Arbor Hills in Q1 of 2024 and we remain confident in our ability to achieve our $175,000,000 of EBITDA from RNG investments by 2026. We will provide an update on the EPR and RNG investments and potential EBITDA upside from these initiatives at our Investor Day later this year. Consistent with our November capital allocation framework, expect to deploy between $600,000,000 $650,000,000 into densifying tuck in M and A in our existing footprint in 2024. Over half of this amount will go towards a medium sized acquisition that we have already signed.

Speaker 1

The asset represents a vertically integrated solid waste business within one of our fastest growing existing markets in the Southeast that will be immediately margin accretive. We have completed the regulatory process and anticipate closing early in the second quarter. The in year contribution from this acquisition and others we complete during the year will be additive to our 2024 guidance. Taking all of this into account, we expect to end 2024 with net leverage between 3.65 and 3.85 and to generate adjusted free cash flow of $800,000,000 I'll now pass the call to Luke to walk through particulars of Q4 and the 2024 guide and then I will share some closing comments before we open it up for Q and A.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Patrick. For the following discussion, I will refer to our accompanying investor presentation, which provides supplemental analysis to summarize our performance for the year and our guidance for 2024. 4th quarter revenue was $1,880,000,000 representing year over year growth 200 basis points better than we had guided. Solid waste price of 7.9% was realized through ongoing support from both our geographies with better than mid single digit pricing continuing to be realized in the typically lower priced residential collection and post collection lines of business. Solid waste volume of negative 3.6 percent represented 100 basis point deceleration from the 3rd quarter due to intentional shedding, a tougher comp in the prior year and softness in special waste.

Speaker 2

Page 4 highlights the 2.45 basis point expansion of underlying solid waste adjusted EBITDA margins we realized during the 4th quarter, 120 basis point acceleration over Q4 'twenty two. The impact from commodity prices flipped to a positive contribution, thanks to price appreciation during the last months of the year. An equal and offsetting impact arose tied to insurance proceeds that were received in the prior year period. While the net impact of fuel surcharges and fuel costs was a positive contributor to margin, the benefit of a fuel hedge we had entered into in Q4 2022 did not repeat in 2023, resulting in a net 10 basis point drag. For the year as a whole, underlying solid waste margins expanded 2.90 basis points.

Speaker 2

We believe this is a strong demonstration of the effectiveness of our pricing and deliberate volume strategies and is consistent with the expected impact of the widening spread between pricing cost inflation that we had forecast in the 2023 guide at the beginning of the year. Our ES segment also had a very strong end to the year. The benefit of our strategic shift towards quality revenue growth initiatives is evident in the 180 basis point of margin expansion we realized in the Q4. This result is even more impressive when considering the disruption from a small fire we had at our Columbus facility in November, the negative impact of which was approximately 165 basis points in the quarter. ES adjusted EBITDA margin was 26.2% for the year, inclusive of the impact of the fire.

Speaker 2

Consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin was 26.1% for the quarter, representing a 200 basis point increase over the prior year and in line with expectations when considering the 40 basis point consolidated margin impact of the facility fire. Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was $472,000,000 which was in line with our guidance. Incremental growth capital in the quarter was $145,000,000 $25,000,000 less than planned due to timing. Dollars 10,000,000 of our planned landfill spend was reported as closure costs instead of CapEx, and you can see that reclass between those two lines on the cash flow statement. Our underlying free cash flow generation was ahead of plan after factoring in approximately $20,000,000 in RNG related ITCs that we expected to receive in 2023, but in the end did not.

Speaker 2

On Page 6, we show the components of material reduction to our leverage in 2023. The graph is a powerful illustration of the deleveraging capabilities of our business. Going forward, we expect organic growth and significant free cash flow generation to more than offset any leverage impacts from M and A, resulting in sequential annual delevering to which we are absolutely committed over the near term. On Page 7, we have summarized our current debt structure. Post our highly successful refinancing in November 2023, over 85% of our debt obligations carry fixed rate of interest, providing significant certainty on our future interest costs.

Speaker 2

With the over 4 years of weighted average term remaining, we remain highly confident in the likelihood of receiving material credit rating upgrades prior to the maturity of most of our existing debt. The November refinancing also provides us with opportunity in respect of nearer term bond maturities. As we have previously communicated, while we do not know where underlying treasury rates will go, we expect the current spread of our borrowing rate over treasuries to materially decline as our credit quality improves. Looking forward to 2024, we are providing guidance consistent with the preliminary framework we laid out last year. Page 8 outlines the revenue bridge and you can see we've provided a pro form a starting point for 2023 that takes into account solid waste divestitures completed in Q2.

Speaker 2

On the back of the strong end to 2023, we're expecting over 9% top line growth in 2024 before the impact of any incremental M and A. Driving this robust growth is solid waste pricing of 6% to 6.5% and approximately 4% from acquisitions already completed. Given the strength of Q4 pricing, we have a high degree of visibility in realizing over 7 percent solid waste price in the Q1 and are confident in the path to achieve a minimum of 6% price for the year as a whole. The guide assumes 100 to 125 basis points of negative solid waste volumes, all of which is attributable to our intentional shedding. Otherwise, underlying volumes are expected to be flat to positive 25 basis points, which we see as conservative but prudent given the potential for some macroeconomic uncertainty.

Speaker 2

Recycled commodity prices are assumed to be at Q4 levels, which were 20% higher than the 2023 average, but 10% lower than current pricing. If current pricing remains at Q4 levels, there would be upside to our 2024 guidance. Recall that post the divestitures, sensitivity to commodity prices is approximately $5,000,000 of EBITDA for every $10 move in our commodity basket. Environmental Services is guided at mid single digit top line growth, underpinned by our continued focus on price driven quality of revenue initiatives offset by shedding of low margin work. For the 2nd year in a row, the quality of our anticipated top line growth leads to the expectation of 100 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion in 2024, all of which is organic as rollover M and A is slightly margin accretive.

Speaker 2

The guide assumes that cost inflation continues to moderate. 100 basis points of margin expansion is expected in both segments with corporate costs remaining flat year over year at 3.3 percent of revenue. The revenue growth coupled with the margin expansion yields adjusted EBITDA of 2.215 over 13% growth from the prior year on a pro form a basis. The guidance assumes an FX rate of 1.35, which is flat with the average rate in 2023, but two basis points lower than the 1.37 that was used for our initial 20 24 thoughts provided last November. Recall that every penny of FX impacts adjusted EBITDA by approximately $11,000,000 and our guide is therefore equivalent to a $2,240,000,000 of EBITDA assuming the November FX rate.

Speaker 2

At the free cash flow line, the walk from the $2,215,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA includes normal course net CapEx of $850,000,000 to $900,000,000 cash interest of approximately $475,000,000 and a net $50,000,000 to $75,000,000 outlay for other cash flow items. The $250,000,000 to $300,000,000 of growth capital that Patrick spoke to is excluded from the guide. Additionally, any RNG tax credits are not included in the guide and would therefore be additive. Page 11 shows the expected 2024 deleveraging path in which organic growth drives net leverage down to mid-3s. As Patrick said, we expect to end the year with net leverage of 3.6 5 to 3.85 times inclusive of the deployment of incremental growth capital and M and A.

Speaker 2

In terms of the cadence of deleveraging, recall that based on the seasonality of our business and the timing of our cash flows, Q1 net leverage typically increases over Q4 levels, Q2 is relatively comparable to Q1 and then leverage steps down in Q3 and Q4. Sudden changes to FX rates and the timing of growth capital deployment may modestly impact the quarterly results, but won't impact the year end landing point of 3.6 5 to 3.85 times net leverage. In terms of operational cadence, consistent with our historical seasonality, we expect to realize approximately 23% of planned annual solid waste revenue in Q1 and 20% of the plan for ES, which equates to approximately $1,775,000,000 in revenue or 5% growth pro form a for the divestitures. In terms of margin, the Q1 is expected to be the toughest comp. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA is expected to be 440,000,000 at just under 25% margin.

Speaker 2

Pro form a for the divestitures that represents about 6.5% growth. At the segment level, after giving effect to the reclassifications of certain operations between segments as reconciled in the appendix to our investor presentation, solid waste margins expand 80 basis points versus Q1 of 2023 and ES margins contract approximately 70 basis points, largely as a result of the tough comp, the atypical January weather in many of our southern markets and disruption from the facility fire that spilled into the Q1. These impacts are not expected to persist into Q2. Corporate costs are expected at 3.7% of revenue in the Q1 as we anniversary the investments made in 2023, mainly around IT against the seasonally lower first quarter revenue. I will now pass the call back to Patrick for some closing comments before Q and A.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Luke. We believe that the results in 2023 confirm that strategy is working. Over the past 15 plus years, we've assembled the best in class asset base across North America and we are now optimizing what we have built. We are pulling the right self help levers to grow revenue at industry leading levels, helping drive outsized margin expansion. At the same time, we continue to strengthen our sheet and remain committed to further deleveraging.

Speaker 1

We expect 2024 to deliver another year of significant margin expansion with longer term upside coming from our disciplined investments and highly accretive return opportunities in RNG, EPR and densifying tuck in M and A. The contribution from all these initiatives will significantly improve our free cash flow profile over the time and continue the long term shareholder value. As always, I am very grateful for the efforts of our more than 20,000 employees who are truly the key to our success. 2023 was another year where Team Green demonstrated their ability to execute on our growth strategy, and I want to thank each and every one of them for their contributions. I will now turn the call over to the operator to open up the line for Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question today comes from Walter Spracklin from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Much, Alberto. Good morning, everyone. Look, I'd like to start with you. Now Patrick mentioned that investment grade rating upgrade in the medium term expected and Luke you reiterated that it's likely going to come before your current the major maturities of your current debt arrangement. So just curious what is it their way what is the focus in the rating agencies?

Speaker 3

Is it just simply the leverage level free cash flow? Or is there something else that they're waiting for in terms of cadence, direction, momentum, anything like that that we might be able to see a rating upgrade sooner rather than later?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Walter. It's a great question. Obviously, something that we focus a lot on. I mean, the rating agencies are quite backward looking in that with the growth that we have enjoyed over the last few years, it does take them some time to sort of catch up.

Speaker 2

So I think it is very much a leverage focus and they do want to see you sort of below that 3.5x leverage level, which you can see with the guide we have put out. We have a very clear path to achieving, but they will be a couple of quarters behind us in terms of when we reach the level in their models. And then exactly as you said, they want to see the sustained level and the commitment to that. I don't think we could be any clearer in our commitment to deleveraging and achieving that. And I think that aspect of it will be well in hand.

Speaker 2

So I think it's really a matter of having their models, which again backward looking catch up with ours. So when you think about the 4 year weighted average maturities as well as our trajectory, I think those things do align and we will have the opportunity to get upgrades along the way because recall we have some upgrades to come before the IG rating, but feel well in hand that by the time the majority of that debt stock comes in hand will be a materially better credit rating than we are today.

Speaker 3

That's fantastic. Okay. And then on the price cost spread, I know not so focused on the nominal actual price, but rather the spread between the 2. Can you speak and you've given us guidance here on the price. And just if you could give us a little bit more detail on how comfortable you are with the current cost inflation, where wages are right now, where rehiring cost of rehiring comes in on any attrition.

Speaker 3

How comfortable are you that you are maintaining a price cost spread? And how would the 2024 price cost spread compare to perhaps 2023 and prior to 2023 on that spread basis?

Speaker 2

Yes. Walter, it's Luke again. Another great question. I mean, I think as we had articulated coming out of 2022, what we were expecting to see over that sort of 12 months to 24 months was a widening of that spread. And although you had 23 starting with double digit price, we're faced up against an equal amount of cost inflation and so we're not really generating the spread that we'd hoped for.

Speaker 2

Historically, I think the industry was looking for somewhere between 35 to 70 basis points of spread, and we articulated that we saw a path coming into 2024 of that spread almost doubling. And I think we're exactly there. I mean, our cost inflation baked in the model, we're anticipating a sort of mid to high 4s cost inflation number. So if you put that against our expected solid waste price, you can see an opportunity for 150 basis points of spread between the two, which we think is a fantastic outcome. And it was one that we sort of had anticipated coming.

Speaker 2

Cost inflation is obviously still quite real, but does seem to be tempering. And the labor markets and the associated impacts to our cost structure with the softening of those is certainly something that we've been watching and enjoying as it seems to be moving in the right direction. So we're feeling pretty good with the guide that we put forward. And I think it's playing out exactly as we had sort of anticipated at the beginning of 2023.

Speaker 3

Okay. Appreciate the time. Congrats on the great quarter.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Walter.

Operator

Our next question comes from Kevin Chiang from CIBC Wood Gundy. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Maybe just on the opportunities on EPR, you highlighted the $80,000,000 to $100,000,000 but there's upside here just given, I guess, some of the changes in the regulatory environment that looks favorable to EPR. When you think of the upside there, is it upside on the existing investments you'll be making over the next year or 2 and adding more earnings to that? Or do you foresee having to make more investments to kind of capture incremental earnings upside from what you've guided to or what you're targeting today?

Speaker 1

So it's 2 fold. 1, Kevin, it's around volume through the existing contracts and through the existing facilities. There's potentially a sort of regulatory change coming that could drive some incremental volume into our facilities. So that's 1. And 2, it's largely, again, around facilities where we already have a lot of the volume going through, but it will be then switched to EPR.

Speaker 1

And then there's the collection contracts, which are moving from municipalities to the producers. So there's a lion's share of a multitude of contracts that are going to be let over the next, call it, 12 months. So and we think we're positioned very favorably. Obviously, we're not bidding on the Mahler ones. We're bidding on the ones where we're being selective about where we already have infrastructure, where we already have people, where it's an easy sort of turnover with not a lot of sort of start up risk.

Speaker 1

So I think we'll be able to update you with some very positive news sort of over the course of the next quarter. But we're feeling really good about where we're sitting today and the positions that we have in a bunch of those contracts.

Speaker 4

That's very helpful. And maybe just as a follow-up here, just for a clarification, the 3.65% to 3.85% leverage ratio, you've burdened that with the incremental growth spend you've highlighted in your capital allocation plan. Are you including the earnings contribution from, for example, the $600,000,000 to $650,000,000 of M and A in there as well? Or is that excluded because you okay, sort of going, yes.

Speaker 2

Yes.

Speaker 4

So the earnings aren't included in that.

Speaker 2

Kevin, it's Luke speaking. For purposes of our guide, any incremental EBITDA from the M and A spend is not included. But for purposes of that illustrative pro form a net leverage at the end of the year, it's assuming that in your run rate EBITDA, you have the benefit of the earnings of what you had bought, right? So if you spend $600,000,000 on M and A and you paid 8 times, you've included that EBITDA for purposes of the net leverage calc, but you have not included any earnings in our EBITDA guide of 2.215 1,000,000,000

Speaker 4

dollars Just want to clarify that. Thank you very much and best of luck in 2024 here.

Operator

Our next question today comes from Michael Hoffman from Stifel. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Good morning, everybody. Hope you're all well. I'd like to follow-up on the leverage question because I think this is important. You have emphasized it, but I want to draw it out. If I follow all the math, the table you gave in the press release shows the debt number.

Speaker 5

That debt number is unchanged without M and A, but you spend all of the capital, growth and maintenance. Organic growth of EBITDA will drive you down to like 3.7. Have I done that math correctly? And it's important that there's a big operating leverage of this organic growth.

Speaker 2

Yes. Michael, I think without seeing the exact math directionally, that's exactly right. I mean, if you look at the free cash flow generation, you can support the normal course CapEx plus a whole lot more, right? When you think about the classic free cash of what's left over to do growth or dividends or buybacks, etcetera, That pool is growing and growing, and that's what's allowing us to delever organically and even delever with the inclusion of all this incremental growth and M and A. You're absolutely right.

Speaker 5

You're going to have a pile of like $500,000,000 in the middle of the table to do M and A buybacks dividends?

Speaker 2

Correct.

Speaker 5

Spend everything. Okay. And then in the guide, how much if any because you mentioned in the beginning all of the operating leverage of 100 basis points in solid waste is price cost. But you have a lot of self help just given where you are in the life cycle of the company, whether it's automation in residential or CNG, your own efforts around working capital, which is more about free cash. What is anything in the guide related to the 100 basis points from self help or is that also incremental

Speaker 6

upside?

Speaker 2

Well, Michael, I mean the price costs, as the math suggests, 150 sort of basis points of spread would give you 100 basis points of margin just onto itself. But as we know, there's other factors at play. I think about some of the exogenous factors. I mean, this year commodities and RNG should be a slight tailwind, call it sort of 35 basis points tailwind. But going against that, I mean, our cost of risk, when I look this year, is about a 70, 75 basis point headwind that we're facing this year.

Speaker 2

And I think that's probably sort of industry wide, something to that magnitude, right? So just if you think about those 3 exogenous factors, you're starting at sort of minus 40 basis points. So yes, we have the price cost spread, and I think that's the largest sort of driver. We also have the impact of our intentional shedding, right? As we've said, we've given up 200 basis points of volume at lower margin, right?

Speaker 2

There's a sort of 30 basis points to 40 basis point of margin impact coming from that. And then as you said, yes, we have the self help. We have the productivity improvement. We have all of the levers that we have been talking about as well as the anniversarying of some of the pain coming out of 2022 as it relates to people and productivity. And so it's really the combination of all of those things.

Speaker 2

But to your point, if you sum those up, you get to something greater than 100 basis points. So we're feeling really confident in our ability to execute on this plan. But as we attempted to articulate in the prepared remarks, we do see multiple points of upside above and beyond where what we're currently guiding.

Speaker 5

Thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Yes. Hi, good morning, everyone. Patrick, can I ask the landfill gas transactions, so Enbridge $2.70 per MMBTUs, what they paid to your footprint, you're potentially looking at $2,000,000,000 plus versus a fraction of that that you invested? How attractive is that opportunity to transact given where valuations are headed and then use that to reduce leverage or redeploy via M and A. Can you just talk about your views on that opportunity set?

Speaker 1

Listen, I mean, again, if you actually had a leverage issue, you would potentially look at potentially pulling one of those levers. But the reality is the business is naturally delevering to the place that it needs to be. And I think from our perspective where we sort of sit today, obviously, if we got a massive, massive price that's sort of what we're valued and then work from a tax perspective, you could definitely look at that. I think for where we're going today in the free cash flow generation, we're going to get that from those RNG projects. And what that does for the business over the long term, the right decision is to keep those that gaps for the long term, both from a margin perspective and a free cash flow conversion perspective.

Speaker 1

And I think over the long term, the shareholders are going to win by keeping that asset versus doing something rash today just to delever the balance sheet 9 to 12 months quicker than it normally would on an after tax basis. So it's good to know what it's worth. And I think it's just it's an asset that's sitting nowhere within the organization today. But I think as those assets come online, I think you have an asset that's worth in your math somewhere between $3,000,000,000 $3,500,000,000 And so we feel good knowing it's there, but I think the free cash flow generation and what that does to the margin profile and the free cash flow conversion for our overall business, we can be better to keep that.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. And can I ask Environmental Solutions, can you just re segmenting, does that drive synergy opportunities? Or is that just pure reporting change? Thanks.

Speaker 1

Yes. I think, Jeremy, I mean, before turning over to Luc, I think when you look at if we look at our business holistically, this is an El Nino year in Canada. And if you look at those, it brings a bunch of, I would say, strange weather patterns from sort of east to west. And I think that business is seasonally based and I think the year before was a really outside beer. So I think we're being just conservative on the Q1 guide.

Speaker 1

Obviously, the full year number doesn't change and we just want to be conservative about where we guided Q1, but the over which is more of a normal year, I would say. Last year was a bit of an outlier, just given all the different pieces that came together, coupled together with we really didn't get any snow in Canada where sort of 80% of that revenue base is tied to. But overall, we feel really comfortable with where the year sort of stands and where we're going.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Stephanie Moore from Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning. Thank you. I wanted to touch on the RNG opportunity for 2024, maybe even 20 20 5. Maybe you could talk a little bit about just the ramp of the Arbor Hills facility coming online in 2023 and just that ability to see maybe some upside in 2024 as the facility matures, kind of likelihood of that potentially happening? And then you also called out maybe another 2 to 3 facilities in 2024.

Speaker 8

What would be the general ramp of those facilities coming online and contributing to EBITDA and then maybe free cash flow over time as well? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. So Stephanie, it's Luca speaking here.

Speaker 9

If you

Speaker 2

think about Albert Mills commissioned in late 2023, initial expectation in our guide at that time was there was going to be some contribution as we've learned in working with our partners, you need a sort of 3 to 6 month period post commissioning, it appears, in order for the actual gas to sort of be monetizable and flowing. And so we're now taking that degree of sort of conservatism. So you think about what 2024 has baked in the guide, you said roughly $30,000,000 coming out of Arbor Hills RNG, that's using a RIN price just under $3 It's really assuming a more muted volume. We're currently running about 70%, 75% of the total expected volume and that's where the upside remains. We've assumed that that lowered level remains throughout all of 2024, whereas the reality by the back half of twenty twenty four, you can see that ramping back up closer to that sort of 100% level.

Speaker 2

So there'll be sort of upside on that. In terms of the other 3 sites, 2 to 3 sites that will come online, probably 2 do get commissioned in the year. The third is scheduled for the very end of the year. So it's possible that, that's into Q1 of next year. But those 2 to 3 sites in aggregate represent sort of equal size to slightly larger in terms of EBITDA contribution as Arbor Hills.

Speaker 2

Arbor Hills was our largest. Those 2 to 3 other in aggregate are about equal size. So you put that together, that brings you closer to sort of $75,000,000 $80,000,000 of EBITDA number on a run rate basis with all of those. Now that the 2 to 3 coming online, again, you need to bake in that sort of 3 to 6 month ramp period. So you may not realize all of that in year 2025, but certainly by exiting the year, you expect to be at that sort of run rate.

Speaker 2

On the free cash flow component, as you know, some of these projects we are sort of debt funding at the project level. And as a result, roughly the 1st sort of 12 to 15 months of generation of cash at the site goes to debt repayment. So you are going to have a lag between the 1st year's EBITDA generation and when the free cash actually starts being received. You do have an immediate free cash component tied to the royalty stream, right, If you think about each of these projects around sort of 15% to 25% of the economics comes in a royalty and so that actually is free cash. But that other actual underlying equity pickup, you can have that 12 to 18 month lag, as I said.

Speaker 8

Great. No, that's really helpful. Thank you. And then maybe just as a follow-up, Patrick, you noted some, you provided some color on a deal that you expected to close and I believe you said early 2Q of this year. So maybe if you could just talk a little bit about that transaction, expectations in terms of opportunity over time to in that specific market?

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. So it's a market where we're currently operating in and around great family business, fully vertically integrated, wonderful hauling business, great landfill asset, again in a market where we've done exceptionally well in. I think we like that market a lot. We like the markets around it a lot. And we think over time, it'll just fill in an area where we would like to be.

Speaker 1

And these opportunities don't come along sort of every day. And I think we were very well positioned both from a relationships perspective with the seller as well as being able to get through the DOJ regulatory process in relatively short order. So you put those two things together, I think that's what made it attractive to us. And I think when we're picking our spot, particularly with M and A, we're looking at places where we can add value and we have sort of a first mover or some sort of advantage with the asset around DOJ regulatory process with some of our competitors, etcetera. So I think that's where we're spending the bulk of our time today on assets as we believe we can get higher return assets with sort of the capital that we have to deploy when we focus on those type of situations.

Speaker 1

So, I think it will be great and we'll be able to update. Our expectation is we'll close early Q2, potentially as early as April 1 and then we'll update everybody clearly with that in mind.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Doumet from Scotiabank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi, good morning guys. Look, I obviously understand the reason behind the capital allocation strategy you laid out in November reiterated today. But I wonder, based on kind of everything, if that means you may forego M and A opportunities that you would otherwise pursue and close? I mean, especially given you've allocated about half of the spend. And if that's the case, is there anything that you can do to minimize that?

Speaker 1

Yes. I think this was a year again, this is as we said, when we put on our capital allocation plan, this was a year to sort of squarely put leverage into the 3s. Yes, there's multiple levers we could pull in order to do that. Are we going to do that? No.

Speaker 1

I think the plan is stick to the sort of capital allocation plan we laid out, which really is for the next sort of 6 months because if you think about what the growth plan would be as you roll into 2025, start putting all the wheels in motion in sort of Q1 of 2022 or Q4, sorry, Q4 of 2024. But we have a lot on our plate, again, with the rollout of EPR, again, this M and A transaction that we've been working on for sort of closer to almost 6 months now for us together. Look, the onesies and twosies and small tuck in highly accretive acquisitions that are going to the existing footprint around sort of underutilized post collection assets. And again, focus on just continuing to delever the balance sheet squarely get that to 3s. Once we get the balance sheet clearly into the 3s, then it will be sort of a natural gravitation down towards closer to 3.

Speaker 1

We'll then not have to have this conversation again and we can just deploy incremental free cash flow and given the size and scale of the business, M and A is not really going to move the needle in any major way in terms of actually toggling between low threes and sort of mid threes. So I think we're going to just stick to this. We're going to stick to the course now. And I think there's lots of opportunities and there will be continue to be lots of opportunities. But for 2024, we want to stick with this plan.

Speaker 10

Got it. Makes sense. Appreciate the comments. Maybe turning to volumes. Again, for solid waste, the expectation for the outsized headwind in terms of volumes in Q1 given the comp and then you get a moderation for the balance of the year?

Speaker 10

And then just turning to ES, I'm assuming organic growth there is going to be price led, but just curious what your thoughts are on volume assumptions.

Speaker 2

Yes, Michael, it's Luke speaking. So for Q1 solid waste, you're absolutely right. The volume is sort of I think in the guide we had alluded to negative 4.5%, which is really negative 3.5% from the intentional shedding. If you think about last year's cadence, Q1 was positive volume, then Q2 through Q4 were about negative 2% to 3%. So you're anniversarying that in Q1 and that yields about negative 3.5%.

Speaker 2

And then all the weather impacts that Patrick alluded to, we think about roughly another 100 bps. So you're starting with that negative 4.5 percent and then that ratably improves as you go through the year getting to a positive volume number by Q4. That's roughly the expected cadence. And for all of the comments in the prepared remarks, we think there could be some conservatism in there. But given the uncertainty, we're feeling confident that's the right sort of place to be guiding to.

Speaker 2

ES, ES is really if you have to go back to Q1 20 20 3 and recall the significant outperformance that ES had in that quarter. And so you're really comping off a very tough quarter. So that is certainly driving part of the Q1 dynamic in the Environmental Services segment. I think more overarchingly in Environmental Services though, it's something that we've consistently been saying is that business historically was a volumetric growth story and is now pivoting to a price led growth story, so quality of revenue over quantity. And so if you think about the mid single digit overall top line growth, that really is sort of higher single digit top line growth coming out of price driven initiatives offset by some negative volume.

Speaker 2

What I would say with ES, unlike Solway, is there is some more event driven components to it. And so you can have an event or an emergency response type action that does give rise to sort of more difficult to forecast volumes throughout the year. We've been quite conservative on that and that can arise. Again, a lot of winter weather in Canada gives rise to those with the milder winter. You didn't see as much of that, but it could come at any time.

Speaker 2

So there is upside from that to the guide, but that's how we're thinking about it overall.

Speaker 6

Perfect. Helpful comment. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question today comes from Stephanie Yih from JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hi, good morning. I know you've been talking about the RNG and EPR spend together. But could you maybe break out either for 2024 how much is dedicated to RNG? Or maybe just even for the 2026 EBITDA, dollars 175,000,000 to RNG, what is the total RNG CapEx associated to get to that EBITDA?

Speaker 2

Well, so Stephanie, it's Lou speaking. So there are 2 different questions in there. On the latter, dollars 175,000,000 of RNG in 2026, what we had previously said, it was just under sort of a 2x capital spend in order to do so. And I think to date through our equity contributions into JVs, we put about $80,000,000 or $90,000,000 We'll have the benefit of sort of debt funding and significant component of the remainder of those and won't require an equity check. And then on the ones that we are building ourselves, we'll continue to have the sort of capital spend.

Speaker 2

But when all is said and done, we think it's in that sort of just under 2x what the EBITDA was is what we had said. Now ITCs have not firmly been sort of factored in. There's a hemming and hawing at the various legislative levels as to what's going to be the final outcome there, but it does seem if reading the TVs that some amount of ITCs will be made available and that will obviously serve to offset what that sort of capital cost is. In the 2024 spend, your first question, roughly sort of 2 thirds of that amount is going into EPR type initiatives with the other sort of third into RNG. Our capital commitments and the JV contributions this year will be significantly lower than the prior year as those projects are now sort of standing on their own.

Speaker 2

But that's how we're thinking about each of those buckets.

Speaker 11

Okay, great. That was so helpful. And just going back to Environmental Services. I guess this year you mentioned in the kind of mid single digit organic revenue growth is embedded high single digit of pricing. That's getting you to 100 basis points of margin expansion in 2024.

Speaker 11

I guess, can you just kind of walk through how you expect to get to that 30% plus EBITDA margin target over the medium term? Is it going to be primarily price driven to get there or any other color you can provide?

Speaker 2

Yes. So Stephanie, I think it is a combination of price driven asset utilization as well as the self help levers that we've been talking, although we typically talk with a solid waste slant equally applicable to environmental services. So price as a starting point, focusing on quality of revenue for net new revenue, but also and perhaps almost equally important, shedding lower quality revenue does not mean our return thresholds, right? And if you just look at the math, the power of shedding, call it, low single or mid teens margin work is very accretive to the sort of blended margin. And so you've seen that at play in solid waste, and we expect to see and realize similar benefits in environmental services as we undertake this sort of quality of revenue focus.

Speaker 2

Asset utilization is one that we've spoken about and continues to be a key focus. I mean the number of SKUs and product offerings in environmental services far greater than what you have in solid waste. And with the way the businesses have come together really with the TeraPure integration from a few years ago, We have a diverse service offering that is not yet fully offered in all of our markets and therefore see opportunity for improved asset utilization by ensuring that each of our locations is doing all that it can be to driving incremental sort of contribution. And so that focus on asset utilization is another sort of leveraged approach. And then the overarching sort of self help, we've talked about really just benefiting from a lot of the operational best in class practices from efficiency, costing, etcetera, that the solid waste industry has sort of perfected and benefited from over the past decade, just employing that into our Environmental Services business as well.

Speaker 2

So when you think about the margin expansion that we've achieved over the last few years and now with the pivot towards this quality of revenue, we're feeling really comfortable about that upwards March to that sort of high 20s and eventually 30% EBITDA margin, yes.

Speaker 11

Okay, great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tobey Sommer from Truist. Your line is now open.

Speaker 12

Thanks. I was hoping you could speak to labor market trends and that inputs and costs for turnover resulting on boarding training, safety expenses, etcetera. Is that static at current rates, those trends in your guidance? Or do you embed incremental improvements throughout the year as that trend kind of reverses from the great resignation a couple of years ago?

Speaker 1

Yes. We have not embedded any upside from where we exited Q4. We do believe there is some upside. I mean, the voluntary turnover is still sitting in low 20s range today. We'd like to see that in the high teens across our book of business.

Speaker 1

So we do think there's some upside coming from that. We haven't embedded any of that into our numbers for 2024. So anything that happens would be upside to the guide.

Speaker 12

Could you talk about the anticipated pipeline of acquisitions as you look out this year both from a geographic mix, how you think the split may fall? And is anything in the complexion of that pipeline indicate that there would be or could be a change in the rate of intentional shedding going forward?

Speaker 1

No, I think if you look at the sort of I mean on the intentional shedding piece, if you look at the intentional shedding piece, there's a bit of sort of low margin commercial work that you've inherited with some acquisitions. But the lion's share of that is going to become in residential contracts where we're a service provider generally only without any material vertical integration. And either we're not going to deploy incremental capital into those types of opportunities. So Southeast Michigan is an example of markets where we're potentially shedding some work because it's just again, the cost and what we're actually getting the revenue we're getting from those contracts just doesn't make a ton of sense. There are some municipalities and communities that are prepared to pay the rate we need because they appreciate the service offerings that we're able to give them.

Speaker 1

But I think that's where the lion's share of that comes. That being said, if you look at where we're going to deploy capital, the pipeline, I would say, these acquisitions don't always just happen in a month. I mean, these relationships are cultivated over long periods of time. So in terms of what we're focused on, really the focus is once getting a sort of medium sized acquisition out of the way, the lion's share of what we're going to do is just small tuck in M and A sort of largely sort of collection only in markets where we have, I would say, underutilized post collection assets and transfer stations, recycling facilities and landfills, where we can just drive incremental volumes to those facilities. We'll have facility consolidations, eliminate the SG and A cost, the consolidation of routes, etcetera, which will then provide the most torque for all of us as shareholders over the course of the next year.

Speaker 12

Thanks. And last thing for me, any regulatory proceedings that you're tracking that could create new opportunities, but also require some new investments?

Speaker 1

No. I mean from that perspective, I think again, we're pretty selective like I said earlier about markets where we're going to go and for acquisitions that we think are sort of relevant for us and looking at the sort of dynamic of what exists in the market today. So I mean other than PFOS, I would say the landfill is nothing that sort of jumps out in me. But I think from a DOJ perspective, HSR perspective, nothing that comes to mind. We're just focused on, again, going into markets where we know we can be through the DOJ and the HSR process in a relatively short order, which again, money is not everything in some of these acquisitions.

Speaker 1

I think some of the sellers don't want to take 12 18 months to go through a process with through HSR, etcetera. So I think that's where we're focused. And I think when you have a limited numbers of dollars you're going to deploy in any given year, particularly like this year, it gives us the luxury of being very selective about what we want to do and where we want to do it and how we want to do it.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Murray from ATB Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes, thanks guys. Maybe going back to the environmental services reclass, just a couple of questions on this. First of all, I guess it moved in aggregate the margin on ES by about an energy basis points. So couple of questions on this. First of all, what actually did move between segments?

Speaker 6

And is this more of a financial thing or an operating thing? And then the question is the other question is down the road, when you think about how you're operating the businesses, is ES going to continue to operate part of kind of a regional approach or is it separate management teams, things like that? Just wondering just as we think about this reclass, how the business gets organized on a go forward basis?

Speaker 2

Yes, Chris, it's Luke speaking. And thanks for the question. We did put an appendix in the deck, I think it's on Page 17 of the deck, showing the detail of the reclass. But really what it is, if you go back, we bought a business called Sprint Waste Services, I believe it was in 2022. And that business, vertically integrated solid waste collection business, primarily in the Houston market, also had some environmental services type work.

Speaker 2

And you think about just the refineries and the activity that happened down in that geography. Originally, we had just recorded all solid waste, but in reality, the plant services type component of it very much fits within what we do with environmental services. So the reclass is primarily about taking that business line and putting it into our Environmental Services just to be more consistent with that work that we do elsewhere. We took the opportunity. There was a few other similar instances from acquisitions that have been completed in solid that had some ancillary services to move those over as well.

Speaker 2

But it really was the Sprint in Houston, the majority of that. So why and the driving was operationally. I mean, we run the business with what makes sense in the field and our environmental services management team and professionals are best suited to sort of do that work and we wanted to put that where we think we have the best opportunity and it's with that team. The business is regionally run just like our solid waste business. Ed Glavina, who runs it as a whole, has individual area VPs.

Speaker 2

They're responsible for each of their respective markets and we don't see that changing. That's the structure that's worked very well for us in solid waste and we're going to continue to employ it in environmental services and execute the same playbook of giving them the sort of freedom and capability to run their respective markets as we do believe waste, whether it's environmental services or solid, is a regionally focused business and continue to use the corporate function to support them in every way that we can. Then highly successful and solid and we expect for continued success in environmental services.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you. That's helpful. The other question I had for you is something about you talked a little bit about this with your 2024 outlook is about looking to improve turnover and health and safety metrics. Can you give us some color about where you're sitting today?

Speaker 6

It feels like employee turnover should be settling down, but when you think about longer term goals on both those metrics, where do you want to get to? I mean, obviously, probably 0 injuries, 0 incidents would be the target. But where are you today and where do you think you you need to go and what's involved in getting there?

Speaker 1

Well, I mean, from a turnover perspective, I think we want to be in a place where you're sort of in the high teens, right? I think that's where we've sat for a long period of time and I think that's where we generally want to go. Today that's low 20s, but materially down from the peak, which was high 20s approaching 30 in sort of some markets. So I think from where we sort of sit today that makes us feel very good about where that trajectory is going and where that's sort of trending. And obviously from a TRRR perspective, I think where we're sitting, we sort of want to be in the twos.

Speaker 1

And I think this year was the best year we've had and we moved to a place of in 2020 we were roughly sort of 4.4 to just over sort of 3 this year. So we think we're going to generally move that to sort of mid-2s and that's sort of best in class and sort of world class for our industry. So again, we're almost there, a little bit of work to do, but we feel really good about where that's going.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from John Mazzoni from Wells Fargo. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Good Thanks for squeezing me in. Maybe just a quick one on the solid waste volumes. Obviously, the intentional shedding color was very helpful. But could you just frame the kind of delay as well as the lag impacts and how we should think about these contracts rolling through? Are they going to be kind of a item in the next few years as well as 2024?

Speaker 13

Or are there any other kind of clips or timing items we should be aware of? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Hey, John. Thanks for the question. It's Luke speaking here. So as we articulate through 2023, I think the lion's share of the effort is sort of behind us for what was easily actionable. Now you raised a great point that some of the contracts are not at our ability to get out of as and when we want.

Speaker 2

And so you have to wait till they anniversary. So Patrick had alluded to, Southeast Michigan being a pocket where we see some of that opportunity coming off as those contracts reset. And certainly, there's other pockets throughout our book as well. So we're going to continue to evaluate. I do think you've seen the majority of it with our existing book of business.

Speaker 2

You could have another sort of 100, 125 basis points over the next sort of 24, 25 additionally, but certainly the wholesale exiting of our sort of non core offerings we think sort of behind us and it was probably now around the edges a little bit more.

Speaker 7

Great color. Thank you.

Operator

Our final question comes from Jim Shoom from TD Cowen. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Hey, good morning

Speaker 9

guys. My call dropped earlier, so apologize, apologies if you already covered this. But can you update us on your truck deliveries given the supply chain challenges?

Speaker 1

Yes. I mean, I think where it's certainly getting better. We received sort of last year 70% of what we wanted, but we think this year that will be closer to 90%. And it would be 100% if we didn't have to augment some trucks in for that we've had to switch for new residential contract wins, etcetera. But certainly getting better and we think by 2025 we'll be back to exactly where we ended pre pandemic.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. Thanks. All my other questions have been answered. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Well, thank you everyone for joining the call. We look forward to speaking to you after Q1. Thank you for joining.

Operator

That concludes today's GFL Environmental 4th quarter 2023 earnings call. You may now disconnect your line.

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GFL Environmental Q4 2023
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