Innergex Renewable Energy Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 22, 2024

There are 11 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Innergex Renewable Energy's 2023 4th Quarter and Year End Results Conference Call and Webcast. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session for analysts and institutional investors and instructions will be provided at that time for you to queue up I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Najee Baidou, Director, Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'd like to specify that this conference will be held in English. Members of the media are invited to ask their questions by phone after this call. A presentation supporting today's discussion is available as we speak on the homepage of our website at www.innerjax.com. This call contains forward looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws.

Speaker 1

Although the corporation believes that the expectations and assumptions on which forward looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions under the current circumstances, listeners are cautioned not to rely unduly on these forward looking statements as no assurance can be given that it will prove to be correct. Forward looking information contained herein is made as of the date of this call and the corporation does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward looking information, whether as a result of events or circumstances occurring after the date hereof, unless so required by law. During this call, we will refer to financial measures that are not recognized according to International Financial Reporting Standards. Please refer to the non IFRS measures section of the MD and A for more information. On today's call, we will discuss our updated capital allocation strategy, which we announced via a separate press release yesterday evening, our Q4 fiscal year 2023 results and our 2024 guidance.

Speaker 1

Our speakers will be Michel LeTourlier, President and Chief Executive Officer and Jean Crudel, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the conference over to Michel Latellier.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Nanje, and good morning. Thank you for joining us. As Nanjei mentioned, yesterday evening, in addition to our earnings release, we announced an updated capital allocation strategy. After much consideration and comprehensive analysis, we have made the decision to focus our capital allocation strategy to support our growth. Specifically, we are establishing a target dividend payout ratio between 30% 50%.

Speaker 2

Jean will provide detail in this section. 2 key message I would like you to take away are, we are shifting our focus to execute on significant greenfield development opportunity that we see ahead, which I will detail in a moment. We will be in a strong position to primarily self funds our organic growth going forward. Next slide. We are providing our strategy toward accelerated growth by updating our capital allocation policy.

Speaker 2

We are positioning ourselves to seize the unprecedented growth opportunity in our industry. We have never seen this level of growth for renewable energy development in the past. The strong market growth we are experiencing in our core market is creating a window of opportunity to capture new capacity driven by both government and corporate decarbonization goals. This is due to the deficit in energy needs and increasing demand for clean power. We see a substantial runaway for significant and durable growth ahead.

Speaker 2

We are excited about the future of Innergex as we have multiple ways we can win in our market. By pursuing profitable project and delivering consistent free cash flow per share growth, we believe we can create value and deliver strong return for our shareholders. Next slide. We believe we are well positioned as a leading diversified global renewable IPP with scale. Our diversification and unique portfolio characteristic provide us with a solid foundation to execute on strong growth that we see ahead in our 4 core market, which is Canada, U.

Speaker 2

S, Chile and France. Given our expertise, we are uniquely positioned to develop project across all our existing technology of hydro, wind, solar and battery energy storage. Overall, our exposure to low risk hydro market position us well to capture new opportunities while remaining a North American business. Next slide. We want to take a moment to clearly state our key strength at Innergex, which will continue to support our success going forward.

Speaker 2

We have a well seasoned leadership team with deep industry and market knowledge who possess the expertise of a full lifecycle project developer that allow us to originate, develop, finance and commission project across various technology and geography and efficiently execute project of all type and size in our varied geographies. Our experience in forging enduring partnership with First Nation and local community is a unique advantage that make us a leader in our space. We have repeatedly been chosen as partner of choice for developing and operating clean energy project. We have developed a strong track record in this domain, which will remain critical to our success going forward. We are leveraging our experience working alongside partners to develop project while respecting their right and advancing economic reconciliation.

Speaker 2

We are leveraging our long standing approach of balancing people, the planet and prosperity. We propose projects that are beneficial to haul. We also have extensive experience as assets operator. We self operate most of our project. We have the know how to efficiently operate our asset and the ability to quickly correct proportional issues when they arise.

Speaker 2

Core to our expertise is also our top tier portfolio of hydro assets. This perpetual asset class provide long term cash flow, support our balance sheet and distinguish Cynergix as a leading power producer. Next slide. Our balanced growth strategy is focused on organic opportunities and is based on 3 key areas. 1st, we want to continue to develop accretive project at a sustainable pace.

Speaker 2

We will ramp up our development activities, primarily focusing on wind and solar assets in our core market as well as complementary storage capacity. Hydro development also remain attractive as we are one of the few player who have the expertise to capitalize on future opportunities in this sector over time. 2nd, we are going to remain focused on our key markets. We are prioritizing our development effort in Canada and in the U. S.

Speaker 2

Where we have established operating asset, development portfolio and significant operating experience. We see strong development potential, favorable environment for construction and development and strong government policy support. We also continue to capture opportunities in France and in Chile where we have established a great development teams. 3rd, we will focus on optimizing value for our existing portfolio. This active portfolio management approach allow us to renew expiring PPA and potentially repowering certain assets.

Speaker 2

This will extend the cash flow profile of our existing portfolio and will also allow us to refinance certain assets hence giving us more flexibility. Our team will find and secure profitable investment opportunity that will enhance our current portfolio and contribute to delivering additional value to our shareholders. Next slide. Now we'll detail our approach to each of our key markets. Canada, our home base represents a large rapidly growing and highly attractive market for renewable energy.

Speaker 2

We have all the ingredients to be successful in Canada like we did in the past. We see tremendous growth opportunity in the country over the next 10 plus year, which will make this region the primary growth engine for Innergex. Our team are actively developing project to be submitted in upcoming RFPs to secure profitable greenfield opportunity and capture this wave of growth. We have significant experience developing project and are a market leader. We will leverage our expertise to capture growth, supported by our strong relationship with First Nation communities and utility customer.

Speaker 2

These elements will allow us to execute on significant opportunities in Canada backed by long term high quality offtake agreement. Several provinces have taken meaningful step to plan new RFP and increase overall procurement of renewable energy. Hydro Quebec is leading the way with its ambitious 2,035 action plan. British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Ontario have also established impressive target to further deploy renewable energy solutions. Innergex owns and operate asset in most of these regions, positioning us for continued growth.

Speaker 2

Next slide. In the U. S, we are construction project in Wyoming and Hawaii, while also looking at compelling renewable energy opportunity in selected market. The passage of IRA is driven increasing investment into renewable sector. Our focus is optimizing our footprint to concentrate on high potential area where we can leverage our greenfield capabilities.

Speaker 2

Our development approach and learning experience will allow us to selectively pursue accretive project including in the large corporate PPA market. The market in France and in Chile also feature very attractive opportunities for Innergex. We intend to continue bringing Greenfield project to life in both markets. In France, our growth is supported by our new strategic long term partner, Triciar Agricole and the strong growth outlook in the market for wind, solar and battery storage. In Chile, our main strategy since we entered the market was to have a diversified portfolio that can respond to capacity and the energy call for both utility and corporate customer.

Speaker 2

We are in a strong position to offer 100 percent renewable energy production on a 20 fourseven basis from a diversified fleet of asset with a strategic market footprint. Our recently commissioned storage project coupled with the outcome and COD of our 2nd best facility will help us manage generation requirement and curtailment while also capturing a healthy capacity payment and arbitrage on the market price. We also recently renew our corporate PPA at the Pampa El Vira Thermal Solar Facility with Codelco and we expect to be able to sign new off date agreement with the strong Chilean mining industry. Our market diversification allow us to capture complementary and accretive growth opportunity while remaining disciplined in our project selection. Next slide.

Speaker 2

We are very active in securing development options. We have a large and diversified prospective portfolio over 10,000 gigawatts globally, which provide us with opportunity to be selective in capturing accretive growth. We will continue to expand this portfolio supported by our highly experienced team. I am extremely confident in our ability to execute on this plan, supported by our new capital allocation strategy. I will now ask Jean to elaborate on financial aspects of our outlook.

Speaker 2

Jean?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Michel, and good morning, everyone. So at Innergex, our approach is based on a multistep framework with rigorous controls to manage all aspects of the development cycle. Our guiding principles on risk management help us to understand and mitigate risk from project origination and assessment all the way through commissioning and ongoing operations. Being a long term asset owner and operator is a key part of our success in Greenfield Development and this approach to organic growth is core to our core strategy. As for our overall investment propulsion, it is based on 3 key pillars.

Speaker 3

Firstly, double digit target returns. We target achieving double digit after tax levered IRRs on our invested capital. Secondly, sustainable free cash flow per share growth. We can best create shareholder value by focusing on self funded organic growth at high returns. Although it takes time for upfront greenfield investments to translate into growth because of the funding lag in infrastructure projects, we are increasing our development activities to have a steady pace of project development deployment over time.

Speaker 3

This should support a sustained pace of long term growth on a per share basis. And thirdly, a 30% to 50 percent dividend payout range. We are providing an explicit target payout range within which we expect to continue rewarding our shoulders with a healthy dividend. Furthermore, we believe that this range is aligned with our organic growth strategy and should allow us to have enough retained free cash flow to reinvest in the significant growth we see ahead of us. Our goal is not only to build megawatts, but to execute on projects where we see the best risk adjusted return potential and where we feel confident in successfully delivering projects with a margin of safety.

Speaker 3

We will focus on quality over quantity in the disciplined pursuit of projects that meet our strict risk adjusted return criteria. Next slide, please. We also want to take some time to discuss our balance sheet management principles, which are based on 3 factors. Firstly, prioritizing non recourse project debt. This important funding tool not only allows us to manage project risks, but also optimizes cost of capital and is backed by the quality of our long term contract.

Speaker 3

Secondly, a conservative debt service coverage and amortization. We maintain high levels of debt service coverage. Most of our project debt is amortized over the remaining life of our PPA contracts. This conservative approach allows us to manage our debt in a prudent manner and aligns our debt repayments with our cash flow profile. This should allow us to capitalize on refinancing opportunities in our fleet as the amortization schedules of our hydro debt is well below the useful life of the assets.

Speaker 3

We have demonstrated our ability to do so in 2023 and we will do so again in 2024 with additional hydrofinancing. And thirdly, maintaining our investment grade rating, we remain committed to managing our corporate leverage to do so. Furthermore, we think it's important to discuss our leverage profile. Although it's easy to compare us to industry metrics at a high level, we believe that leverage should be based on specific portfolio mix. In Innergex' case, given our elevated exposure to high quality perpetual hydro assets, we can optimize our cost of capital and put incremental fixed rate low risk project level debt on our balance sheet.

Speaker 3

This key advantage represents an attractive funding tool for us and supports our portfolio leverage. Overall, our approach allows us to prudently manage our debt. We have a balance sheet that is appropriate for our unique long life asset mix and that supports further growth. Next slide please. Going forward, our funding strategy will prioritize internal sources of capital to increase our capacity to self fund organic growth.

Speaker 3

By revising our capital allocation priorities, we are choosing to emphasize greenfield development activity. It is important for us to be clear about this. The decision to realign our capital allocation strategy was not based on affordability. As you will see when we cover our 2024 guidance, we have the capacity to fully cover our actual dividend using cash flow from existing operations and the long term outlook is positive. In the context of the significant growth we see ahead, as highlighted earlier by Michel, we have taken bold and decisive action to increase our financial flexibility and accelerate our greenfield investments, while also reducing our reliance on externalities, both external issuances and or acquisitions of operating assets.

Speaker 3

Based on these updates, we expect to largely self fund our growth investments from retained cash flows. While we strategically leverage capital recycling and refinancing tools, our guiding principles on portfolio management activities are as follows. 1st, value creation. 2023, we crystallized value from our portfolio in France and brought in a strategic partner. This process allowed us to increase our investment economics.

Speaker 3

We see value in selective capital recycling and we'll look to reinforce our track record to value creation by pursuing further sell down opportunities. Secondly, the risk management and portfolio high grading. We also see capital recycling as a tool to manage exposure and risk, allowing us to recycle capital for certain regions or assets into new accretive growth. We could look to utilize capital recycling to exit non core markets or divest low performing assets, thus high grading our overall portfolio quality. And thirdly, funding, we see this type of initiative as supporting our self funding ambitions allowing us to continue to reinvest in new projects over time.

Speaker 3

In conclusion, we will continue to expand on our capital recycling successes. By realigning our dividend policy in support of our strategic priorities, we are increasing our financial flexibility freeing up around $75,000,000 per year to support sustainable and self funded growth. As an example, over a 10 year period this additional and growing excess capital could enable 1500 megawatt plus of incremental development on a 100% self funded basis. Next slide please. If we think about our stated goal of securing 400 megawatt per year of new capacity and we look out to 2,030, we see a potential path to deliver on this goal.

Speaker 3

Here, we illustrate how by just taking our under construction and under development projects coupled with the recent awarded Quebec wind projects, we are approximately at 46% of the way towards adding 400 megawatt per year through 2,030. If we think about this goal in the context of our existing 10.9 gigawatts and growing portfolio of identified projects, we believe that we have a highly visible organic growth outlook. Next slide please. In conclusion, our revised capital allocation strategy will enable us to provide balanced returns to our shareholders. A dividend of $0.36 per share within a 30% to 50% target payout range growing free cash flow per share from accretive greenfield opportunity and opportunistic buyback of share and strategic capital recycling to create additional value.

Speaker 3

We will be focused on selectively developing high quality projects in our core markets. Our disciplined approach and large pipeline of prospective projects mean we can be patient and monitor market conditions to maximize value creation. We will not invest in projects until we have a high visibility of being able to achieve our target returns. By focusing on self funded growth quality over quantity and given the time it takes to develop and construct projects, our organic growth strategy will require some time before it can translate into free cash flow per share forward. Having said that, we are confident that this is the right path for Innergex going forward.

Speaker 3

Our recent successes in Quebec gives us confidence that we can continue to create sustainable value for shareholders over the long term. Next slide please. So with that announcement, let's turn to our Q4 2023 results. For the quarter, we posted good results with adjusted EBITDA proportionate of $186,000,000 representing a 30% increase year over year. This growth was primarily driven by improving generation trends, particularly in our hydro portfolio, where we saw generation improve to 104% of LTA versus the anomaly of 70% of LTA experienced in the Q4 2022.

Speaker 3

Despite coming in 6% below LTA, our adjusted EBITDA was in line with our expectation. This is because we had a favorable generation mix with higher production at facilities with higher pricing, which mitigated the impact of lower than LTA production. It's important to reinforce that our diversification strategy is working well and that generation is not the only driving force of our results. We also experienced healthy growth of 12% year over year for adjusted EBITDA proportionate which reached $735,000,000 on a full year basis in 2023. This increase was mainly driven by recent acquisitions, improving production trends in our hydro segment as well as contributions from newly commissioned assets.

Speaker 3

As for our cash flow on a normalized basis, we would have generated between 197 $1,000,000 to $212,000,000 of free cash flows for the year. The major drivers of this increase compared to 2022 are similar to the previously noted elements, partially offset by higher principal debt repayments, maintenance CapEx and free cash flow attributed to non controlling interests. On a normalized basis, our payout ratio would have been between 69% 75%. So far in Q1, 2024, we are seeing good generation from our assets which are performing in line with our expectations. Separately and of note, yesterday we also announced an NCIB program.

Speaker 3

This will allow us to opportunistically buyback up to 5% of our outstanding shares. Next slide please. So based on recent macroeconomic trends and previously communicated elements impacting our path forward, we believe it is prudent to withdraw our 2025 targets at this time. Looking ahead, we want to provide an update on our financial targets. But in the meantime, we are introducing guidance for 2024.

Speaker 3

For this fiscal year, we expect adjusted EBITDA proportionate to be in the range of $725,000,000 to $775,000,000 and free cash flow per share before prospective expenses to be in the range of $0.70 to $0.85 per share. The key assumptions behind our 2024 guidance include production expectations in line with LTAs and asset availability of approximately 95%. Overall, we expect to deliver moderate growth in 2024 with more pronounced growth in 2025 following the commissioning of our projects under construction. I will now give back the floor to Michel for our 2024 corporate priorities and closing remarks. Michel?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jean. Before we conclude the presentation, I would like to reinforce our focus area for the months ahead. We will advance our under construction project, the largest among them being the 330 Megawatt Boswell Spring wind project, which we expect to be commissioned by the end of 2024. We are also focused on building Alikoa in Hawaii. Meanwhile, in the development, we will participate in RFP across the various markets in which we operate.

Speaker 2

We expect to bid well over 500 megawatt of project into several RFP in 2024. We are targeting capturing 400 megawatt of new capacity award from our bid this year, just like we did in 2023. Finally, we will continue to strengthen our financial flexibility. Next slide. I would like to highlight why we believe Energex is a unique investment opportunity and why we are confident in our ability to continue to win in the renewable energy market and deliver shareholder value.

Speaker 2

First of all, Innergex is 100% renewable energy project developer and operator. We have a high quality complementary portfolio of assets that are diversified across hydro, wind, solar and battery storage. Our base of premium hydro assets provide hydro assets provide a unique advantage. Our assets are also well balanced across geography with operation in Canada, the U. S, France and Chile.

Speaker 2

This diversifies our exposure to the resources, customer and contracting opportunities. Our assets are predominantly supported by highly quality PPA that are indexed to inflation and generate long term cash flow. Finally, our disciplined execution on our growth strategy will enable us to deliver good long term shareholder return. Next slide. I will close with our key takeaway from today's strategic update.

Speaker 2

As we announced last night, we're taking strong action to pursue disciplined, sustainable growth. We have made the decision to recalibrate our dividend payout ratio to allow for additional greenfield organic growth. Our update capital allocation strategy include prioritizing our self funded model and increasing financial flexibility. Finally, we will also look to optimize our existing portfolio of assets to create value. As we begin to capture unprecedented growth opportunity in front of us, we will remain disciplined on executing on profitable project that will generate sustainable cash flow per share growth.

Speaker 2

I'm confident in our ability to create value for our shareholder supported by our solid track record of success that will continue to build on in the coming years. With over 3 decades of industry experience and strong commitment to sustainable development through 100% renewable energy, Innergex is primed to pursue greenfield development opportunities and deliver compelling risk adjusted return on investment capital. With that, we'll now move to the Q and A session. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank

Operator

Your first question comes from David Quezada with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Maybe a question just on your refinancing initiatives. I know that you have the 3 that you've already delivered and then another 3 that you've got for 2024. But I think that leaves you with about 11.

Speaker 4

I'm just curious, is there a level where you want to keep a certain number of unlevered assets? Or how many more tranches of that could you do, if any? Yes.

Speaker 3

Good question. And at the present time, we have one initiative ongoing and it's the refinancing of 3 additional hydro projects that are based in Quebec. So we're working on this initiative in 2024. So we expect to have something to announce on this later on. That's at the moment the only initiative we have.

Speaker 3

But of course, we have other as you pointed out, we have other unlevered assets. And so as we may see fit, we may actually enact other initiatives in the future to fund our activities.

Speaker 4

Okay, excellent. Thanks for that. And then maybe just one more for me. Just with your comments around asset recycling, I'm just curious if there's any color you can provide in terms of what your priorities might be there. I know that you've got a lot of development stage projects in the U.

Speaker 4

S. I'm wondering if any of those in certain regions in the U. S. Might be considered non core or what kind of will be the most likely assets that you could look to monetize? And what are the markets looking like today for those kind of assets?

Speaker 3

Yes. So I guess there are several assets that we have, as you pointed out. So our guiding principle, I guess, when we think about capital recycling is to first the value creation. So it needs to bring value as we've done in France, as we've done in France in 2023. And then as I mentioned earlier, we are trying to look at risk management, so high grading the value of our portfolio as we've done when we sold Iceland, for example, or Kokomo and Spartan last year and some development assets in Hawaii that we sold as well.

Speaker 3

So there are opportunities in our asset mix to do this again in 2024 or future years. And the 3rd guiding principle is really funding. So it needs to be substantial and needs to bring us funding as we did in Iceland and France, for example. So you're right, there are other assets and we're looking at this with this angle.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Sean. Appreciate that. I'll turn it over.

Operator

Your next question comes from Sean Steuart with TD. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Good morning. Just want to follow-up on David's good morning. Follow-up on David's question with respect to liquidity position. So you ended the year with available liquidity of around $630,000,000 And you've articulated the under construction pipeline, the advanced development pipeline and I guess the target of 400 megawatts to 500 megawatts per year of development.

Speaker 5

What do you think the right liquidity needs to be quarter to quarter to have comfort, that you can advance those opportunities? And I guess I'm just trying to gauge that with you seemingly have a reasonable liquidity cushion now, especially with the lower dividend. Is there potential that you can delay some of these refinancing opportunities or asset recycling opportunities to wait for better market conditions? What and how does that play into sort

Speaker 4

of an

Speaker 5

optimal liquidity target quarter to quarter for the company?

Speaker 3

Yes. It's a very good question. So this is exactly fundamentally the reasons for our new capital allocation. We want to have flexibility. And this brings us additional flexibility to actually allow us to time refinancings or asset sell down or so that we're not actually stuck in a space where we have to do something.

Speaker 3

So we can be more patient, we can be more flexible. And right now, we try to self fund all our operations and we don't foresee the need for additional capital. As you point out, we have a good amount of liquidity right now. So with this additional portfolio of hydro refinancing, I mean, we'll be in a good spot.

Speaker 5

And I think that the last update was $80,000,000 in incremental proceeds from hydro refinancing. Is that still the right number?

Speaker 3

Yes, that's still a good proxy.

Speaker 5

Okay. Next question, just the NCIB, I presume that's not just there as a placeholder and your shares are reacting positively out of the gate this morning. But can you give thoughts on your assessment of intrinsic value versus where the shares are trading now and commitment to the NCIB at these levels?

Speaker 2

It will be also a decision of the Board. We have established the NCIB to be opportunistic in taking the investment our share. Obviously, we as you can understand, we see a lot of growth opportunity. But obviously, if we can have the opportunity to buy back some of our shares, this is going to be accretive right away on the cash flow per share basis. So we will be monetize the evolution on the market and be in contact with our Board of Directors to see how aggressive we can be with that program.

Speaker 5

Understood. Okay. That's all I have for now. Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Sean.

Operator

Your next question comes from Nick Boychuk with Cormark. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thanks. Good morning.

Speaker 1

Good morning, guys. I wanted to

Speaker 2

just please provide a bit

Speaker 6

of extra clarity on your growth objectives. Is the self funding mechanism of, say, 400 megawatts of gross capacity per year the ultimate goal? Or are you guys also going to be looking at other opportunities and considering those? And if so, I guess a little bit more color on the funding of that further out?

Speaker 2

Yes. Yes. I'll take the first half and perhaps Jean will contribute to the funding part. But we have put this 400 megawatt of opportunity or gold. I think that there's more opportunity in all the market.

Speaker 2

You heard me talking about Canada, U. S, Chile and France. What we have also said is that we want to be disciplined. We want to win project that are profitable. So that's why we're limiting our goals today at 400.

Speaker 2

That doesn't mean that we will not pursue more, but we'll be selective. We want to make sure that the project that we will be winning will be profitable. Now in terms of financing these opportunities, we have success. You heard Jean, we will be looking toward recycling. We have more flexibility with the dividend.

Speaker 2

But having good project with good return has never been an issue to get funding by partner or sell down piece of that. So what we are focusing is making sure that the project we will be winning will be profitable.

Speaker 7

Okay, that's

Speaker 6

great. Thanks. And on that profitability, my follow-up was going to be about how you're prioritizing those. Are you seeing a different return profile by region or asset type? And if you can explain how you're thinking about ranking those priorities, I think that'd be good color.

Speaker 2

I think that we have a very special position in Canada. I think that we have proven in the past that Energex has been very successful developing in Canada. You know that most of the project in Canada will require to have some form of a partnership with First Nation and Communities. That's something that we have done in the past and we are very good at doing. This is giving us I think a leadership position and an unique ability to create value in Canada.

Speaker 2

That doesn't mean that we will not be active in the other market. I think that we have a better, I guess, hedge in Canada to create value for our shareholder. U. S. Has great opportunity.

Speaker 2

France, as you have seen, we have created quite a bit of value in our portfolio, has been shown with the sell down to Creta Agricole. Chile is on a good path. We stick to our strategy of having a portfolio. I'm confident that we will be winning RFPs in Chile in the next few months. There's some great opportunity going down there as well.

Speaker 2

So but to your point, I think that where we can create more value perhaps is in Canada and the quality also of the BPA are great. They're 25, 30, 35 years index PPA, take or pay. So that's the type of PPA we like as well.

Speaker 8

Okay. So to clarify,

Speaker 6

I guess, an opportunity, a wind opportunity in Quebec, like for like would have a higher potential return profile or more favorable characteristics to you guys than, say, Boswell Wind expansion or some new form of asset in the U. S? Generally speaking, is that a fair assumption to make?

Speaker 2

It's a fair assumption. I think the quality of the PPA with the Canadian utility are more flexible. Although in the U. S, I think that the inflation linked PPA will have to be the norm. It has been in the past, long term PPA with utility have very little inflation embedded in them.

Speaker 2

And this is something that we don't like. I think that this way of signing PPA in the States will have to change because it's not fair for IPP to take the full risk of future inflation for the next 30 years.

Speaker 7

Got it. That's perfect. Thanks so much, Michelle.

Operator

Your next question comes from Rupert Merer with NBF. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 6

Good morning, William.

Speaker 9

I'd like to start by asking you a little about your bridge to 2024 EBITDA. It looks like up only 3% at the midpoint, actually down at the low end. But your guidance says you're basing it on LTA production. So given we had such big weather headwinds in 2023, can you walk us through that bridge on how we could see this basically flat EBITDA in 2020 4? And I mean, you've got some growth too, I imagine.

Speaker 3

Yes. So we took a prudent approach. There are a few things in 2023 that will not be true to 2024. So for example, we've adjusted the LTA of some of our assets downward to reflect the historical production of certain assets that needed to be adjusted. So that represents about $20,000,000 of revenue down year over year, just that aspect.

Speaker 3

And I think it's important to be prudent right now. So we've put sort of some contingency in our numbers to reflect that prudence. So we're comfortable with that guidance now. Rupert, as you know, we will have calls every quarter. We'll update potentially this guidance if we see fit in the coming year.

Speaker 3

We really believe that the LT that we have today are real. I mean, we believe in that number that we've just adjusted down slightly. And we so that's why the guidance is based on that LTA.

Speaker 9

Just a quick follow-up on that. We reviewed the financial statements and the LTAs in your Q4 reporting are the same as they were in the previous quarter. So is this

Speaker 2

a quarter review?

Speaker 3

Yes. Well, we adjusted in 2 steps. When we did the transaction in France, we adjusted the French portfolio down. So that was reflected in Q3 and Q4. And for 2024, we're adjusting down 5 hydro assets in BC.

Speaker 3

So it's an additional 110 gigawatt hour of adjustments in 2024. So in total, it's 170 gigawatt hour adjustment to LTA, 60 was done in Q3 and 110 done now in 2024.

Speaker 9

So just put that in perspective, what percent revision would that be on the

Speaker 3

So that's about 1.6%, 1.7% down on LTA, but you have to realize we're taking down the LTA out of 2 areas where our pricing is actually more limited than the average. So the revenue impact is a bit greater when you adjust these LTAs versus other LTAs. So the total impact of this adjustment, France and BC is $20,000,000 on a yearly basis of revenue.

Speaker 2

And also, Rupert, we've been prudent also in our assumption on spot merchant pricing. We could be proven to be wrong in the sense that we're seeing strong merchant pricing emerging after the summer in Chile. So and ERCOT has been pretty good last year. So we'll see. But I think the message that Jean is providing you is that we want to be prudent.

Speaker 2

We're putting a forecast for 2024 while we just took out the 2025. So I think that we want to be prudent. We want to perhaps under promise and overachieve in the future. So this is the reason I agree with you that when we look at what we have done in 2023 based on 90% LTA, our guidance seems to be very prudent.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks for that color. And if I could ask secondly, if you can give a little more color on the impairments, in particular at the Halley line, a $93,500,000 impairment. Can you give us color on why you're taking that impairment, but also a little more color on how much more you have to invest in that project and how much has been invested so far?

Speaker 3

Yeah. So at HK, the impairment, it's a bit of an academic process, right? It's an impairment testing every year that we do. And there's a couple of factors that impacted the value on our book. Firstly, the yield environment is increasing.

Speaker 3

So these assets that were with a thin margin of error are impacted. So Eliquis, as you know, has been seeing some difficulties. So the return on that project was actually challenged. And now with yielding environment going up, it's hard to keep the book value. The other thing as well is that HECO the difficulty of HECO makes it more difficult to put debt on the project at competitive rates.

Speaker 3

So when you look at the project on a standalone basis, the cost of capital for that project has increased as well. So it was, I think, very prudent, it's very conservative to take such impairment on HK. At the moment, we have about $110,000,000 invested in HK. There's about $90,000,000 left to invest to build a project to COD. So that's on HK.

Speaker 8

Great. I'll leave it there. Thanks for the color. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from Mark Jarvi with CIBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Yes. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. So Jean Michel, you talked about the 400 megawatts and development pipeline. Just trying to understand what holds you back from providing the medium term targets?

Speaker 10

You kind of seem like you're close to having a framework for it. But what would you need

Speaker 2

to see? Is it the RFP results?

Speaker 10

And when would you be able to provide something to the market where they can kind of really see where the growth is going over the next 3 to 5 years and sort of back into the self funded model, I guess?

Speaker 2

That's fair question, Mark. I think that we will be coming to the market explaining a little bit more. We just wanted to take a little bit more time making sure that we have a better view on what's going on in all the RFPs that we are going to participate. We didn't want to rush to give you guys a guidance that was not based on actual numbers that we are seeing in the marketplace. We're very, very bullish as you can hear me saying amongst the ability for us to be successful in future bid.

Speaker 2

But we wanted to take a little bit of more time to make sure that the guidance that we will be providing will be more, I guess, informed with actual data from the existing activities, development activities that we're doing.

Speaker 1

So is that something

Speaker 10

you think happens in 2024? Is that more 2020 5 when you have a sort of formal plan?

Speaker 2

I don't want to commit right now. 2024 will be very busy. We'll be answering RFPs in Canada in at least 3 provinces, if not 4, France and Chile. If something's happened, it's probably going to be the end of 2024 or very early in 2025.

Speaker 8

Got it.

Speaker 10

And then the retained cash from the dividend being lower and getting back to a certain normalized generation kind of implies you should have cash flow retained of around $100,000,000 annually, maybe a bit more. How do you see the equity deployment in 2024 2025 shaping up? Like do you actually have the projects in line to deploy that amount of equity every year? Or as you said, maybe Jean, there's a bit of a lag, the development projects and the equity deployment might not really start to move until later in 2025, 2020 6 timeframe?

Speaker 3

Yes. Right now, we're fully funded on our construction activities. So these projects, that's the focus we're on, like to those are self funded. As we gain new projects, we intend to self fund as well. So it really depends on how successful we are.

Speaker 3

As you know now we've won the last 2 RFPs in Quebec. We've won every project that we've bid at very good return proposal. So if it keeps if we keep delivering that way, I mean, we'll start looking at the way to fund these activities in 2025.

Speaker 2

But I guess that Mark, one question is really clear. We're not going to use that cash to acquire existing operating facility. We're moving away from that strategy. We're going to focus on greenfield organic growth.

Speaker 10

Got it. So I'm just trying to with the MU2, you've got a couple other projects, but I'm not sure you have 2 years of clear equity needs. I'm just wondering whether or not there's actually some excess cash that will be there and what do you do with that? Is that just pay down more of the credit facilities? Just trying to think of the right way to think about that retained cash over the next 2 years?

Speaker 3

Yes. So we always manage 1st of all, we manage always to keep our investment grade rating, right? So if we have excess cash, then maybe share buying back is an optionality that we have as well now that we've put the NCIB back. We need to be prudent. We want to manage to keep our flexibility, optionalities, maintaining our investment grade rating.

Speaker 3

So that's the guide rails we have, I guess.

Speaker 10

And maybe just one sort of follow-up just so what would be the equity expected equity investment for 2024 this year on the projects you have in hand? Given the fact that bonds are fully funded, yes. Yes.

Speaker 3

So our activities are fully funded. We're looking at eventually putting the debt instrument on the MU2 that we recently won. And but that's it. I mean, we don't have equity need at the moment, not in the short term.

Speaker 10

Got it. Okay. Thank you both.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Nelson Ng with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks and good morning everyone. Good morning, So just a few follow-up questions. So you talked about, I guess, the 2023, 2024 bridge with Rupert and you flagged that it was relatively conservative and prudent. I presume, I guess, one factor that could be pushing the EBITDA down is higher prospective project costs, given that it sounds like you're going to be pretty busy this year.

Speaker 7

Could you just comment on what you have what you've budgeted for prospective projects this year? Because I think it was about 27,000,000 dollars in 2023.

Speaker 2

Yes. It will it should be close to $40,000,000 at what we have in the budget. It's a ramping up and that's a good question, Nelson, in the sense that our team has been built up. You don't build an overnight team. We've been increasing our prospective expenses in the last 5 years going from roughly $10,000,000 to last year as you mentioned $27,000,000 Now we're focusing close to $40,000,000 for this year.

Speaker 2

One has to understand that this has to be kind of in line with the amount of team that we have on the ground. And this is why we're also pretty optimistic is that we are building the team. So we have now more boots on the ground that can deliver more projects. And you will see an increased activities in prospective project getting in into early stage and then mid and advanced. That's the strategy wide.

Speaker 2

As you're going to see more projects being chipped in those categories. The advanced bucket, which is obviously the one that has more probability to get into a development project and then eventually under construction. This is what you have to focus is our ability to create more and more prospective project pipeline and certainly focusing more on advanced sector. The early stage is always early stage. Those are the incoming project that will have to go through the development activities.

Speaker 2

But what we are going to focus is to see the 3rd bucket, the advanced project. They're going to be ready to bid into RFPs. And like I said, there will be a lot of activities in Canada, but the 3 other markets are very active as well.

Speaker 7

And in one of your slides, you mentioned that you'll be bidding over 500 megawatts, but you expect to win about 400 megawatts. So that's close to an 80% success rate.

Speaker 2

I would say that the 500 megawatts is very, very prudent.

Speaker 3

And that's just for 2024. Yes, yes. As the RFPs come, we may bid a much greater number of megawatts as well in the future years.

Speaker 7

Okay, got it. And then I just also had another follow-up question on Hawaii. So just so that I'm understanding it correctly. So the HK project will cost about $200,000,000 in total, of which $110,000,000 has been invested. But you've written down 90 $4,000,000 so far.

Speaker 3

That's right.

Speaker 7

And is that mainly due to like unforeseen costs or is it more of that kind of academic exercise you're talking about like?

Speaker 3

Yes. And my auditors won't like me if I say academics like this. But it's a mix of things, Nelson. Of course, we've seen increased costs. And as you know, we were successful in renegotiating our PPA with HECO to capture a better price to actually mitigate some of that increased cost, but not all of it.

Speaker 3

And then the effect of interest rate rising, the quality of the PPA being, I guess, diminished with the HECOS issues makes the cost of capital on that project different than what we originally anticipated. So it's harder to put construction debt or long term debt or tax equity as well is a bit more demanding in these circumstances. So it affects the economics of the project. And so we took the write down we took a conservative write down, I have to say. So we prefer to be more conservative in that regard.

Speaker 3

So hence the end result. Okay. And then just

Speaker 7

one last question. The DRIP is still in place. But was there a reason why you chose to kind of keep that in place? Because obviously, it's a bit dilutive, but you also have your NIIB that could offset that DRIP.

Speaker 3

So the DRIP yes, so the DRIP is a service to our shareholders really that we provide. If you look in the financial statements of 2023, it's been used only to the tune of $2,500,000 So it's very marginal and we're going to be looking at the options to actually use the trip by buying on the market shares on the market instead of issuing from the new shares. So the effect is really minimal at the end of the day.

Speaker 2

Yes, we considered taking it out, but like Sean is saying, it's a little bit of a service to small investor that sometimes when they have a small position, it's kind of hard to track checks being not everybody has the investment ability. So but it like Sean is saying, we decided to keep it because it's so very marginal. And the idea of buying on the market is probably what we're going to do.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. Thanks everyone. I'll leave it there.

Speaker 5

Thank you, Anav.

Operator

Anas. Your Your next question comes from Ben Pham with BMO. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi.

Operator

I had a question

Speaker 8

around maybe the timing of your decision to recalibrate and change in capital allocation. Can you comment on when you or the Board internally started to seriously look at recalibration? And then can you also comment, was there anything else the board might have considered to surface value in your stock of outside of the dividend reset?

Speaker 2

I think that I will not comment on when. It's always something that the board is concerned about always trying to have the best allocation of capital. And I guess it the payout ratio is a little bit of a vestige of the income trust era. It didn't it doesn't fit very well. I think that what's what we decided, where we have this great possibility of growth.

Speaker 2

And we have had some challenge in terms of long term average in the last couple of years. So the payout ratio was always a little bit of a pressure given the state of the production. So we basically take the view that it's the best strategy for us is to focus on taking that dividend and put it into work in our organic growth opportunity. This is definitely what has been driven into the decision of taking this new policy is the unprecedented opportunity that we see in our marketplace.

Speaker 3

Yes. If I may add, it's really a value creation exercise that we went through here. We saw the opportunities ahead and we thought about how to maximize value to shareholders and capturing that growth, having more flexibility to do so was the best course of action.

Speaker 2

But that doesn't mean that we will be freeing and spending that money. I think that we are very clear. We want to focus and create value with these initiatives and that's what we're going to be. We want to be disciplined. We have a lot of opportunity.

Speaker 2

We'll be cherry picking the project that we want to win.

Speaker 8

And can you comment, did you consider anything else beyond the dividend, maybe an asset sale on the hydro side or in a salaried partnership with a pension plan for capital? Was there other areas that you get evaluated?

Speaker 2

The Board is always looking and asking management to provide alternatives. But I think that given the low market or challenging market these days in terms of value of asset of renewable asset, We thought that creating our own greenfield organic growth was the best way to go.

Speaker 3

Yes. On the long term as well, right. So it's a decision that will survive just a single asset sale, for example. This is giving us flexibility for the coming decade and not just a 1 year one time event as an asset sale would represent. Asset sales, recycling, we've talked about this.

Speaker 3

We'll look into this to self fund ourselves. But strategically speaking, the decision we just took now is for the long duration profile.

Speaker 8

Okay. And maybe last one for me. You mentioned accelerated growth and there's comments around self funding the growth, but I think you've added an even capital recycling too if you have growth exceeding the self funding model. I think that seems to be the message you're having. But what if growth exceeds those 2 buckets?

Speaker 8

Do you put a lid on CapEx and pull back projects if you reach a decision where you may need to issue equity?

Speaker 2

Well, we're not saying that we'll never issue equity, Ben. But I don't think we have any need for the near future to issue equity. That's the message we're saying. If we're super successful and we have a lot of great project with great accretive growth, We may consider down the road eventually to issue equity, but being a public company that could happen. But what we're seeing is that we will not use equity as we did in the past to finance existing and mature project.

Speaker 2

We'll be focusing on our ability to create accretive growth per share in our organic pipeline of development. If we're too successful

Speaker 4

And it's a good problem.

Speaker 2

That's a good problem. Usually, it's not a big issue to sell down or sell project that have good cash flow profiles.

Speaker 8

Okay. All right. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Mr. Bedouin, there are no further questions at this time.

Speaker 1

Thank you for joining us everyone today and for your interest in Innergex. We look forward to updating you on our continued progress next quarter. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you, everybody.

Speaker 3

Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect your lines.

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Key Takeaways

  • Innergex has updated its capital allocation policy to a 30–50% dividend payout ratio, freeing up cash to primarily self-fund organic greenfield growth instead of relying on external equity or acquisitions.
  • The company’s balanced growth strategy centres on accelerating development of wind, solar and battery storage, focusing on its core markets in Canada, the U.S., Chile and France, and optimizing existing assets through PPAs renewals and selective repowering.
  • With a diversified prospective pipeline of over 10 GW, Innergex plans to bid more than 500 MW of projects in 2024 and aims to secure roughly 400 MW of new capacity awards each year toward a 400 MW/year target by 2030.
  • In Q4 2023, adjusted EBITDA (proportionate) increased 30% year-over-year to US$186 million—driven by stronger hydro generation and higher‐priced facilities—while full–year adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to US$735 million.
  • For fiscal 2024, guidance calls for US$725–775 million in proportionate adjusted EBITDA and US$0.70–0.85 of free cash flow per share, with moderate growth expected this year and more pronounced increases in 2025.
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Earnings Conference Call
Innergex Renewable Energy Q4 2023
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