Andersons Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 21, 2024

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Andersons 2023 4th Quarter Earnings Conference Call.

Speaker 1

My name is Rocco,

Operator

and I will be your coordinator for today. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

Speaker 1

I will now hand the presentation to your

Operator

host for today, Mr. Mike Holter, Vice President, Corporate Controller and Investor Relations. Please proceed, sir.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Rocco. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for The Andersons' 4th quarter earnings call. We have provided a slide presentation that will enhance today's discussion. Slides will be made available on the Investors page of our website at andersonsinc.com shortly. Please direct your attention to the disclosure statement on Slide 2 of the presentation as well as the disclaimers in the press release related to forward looking statements.

Speaker 2

Certain information discussed today constitutes forward looking statements that reflect the company's current views with respect to future events, financial performance and industry conditions. These forward looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially as a result of many factors, which are described in the company's reports on file with the SEC. We encourage you to review these factors. This presentation and today's prepared remarks contain non GAAP financial measures.

Speaker 2

Reconciliations of non GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure are included within the appendix of this presentation. As always, on the call with me today are Pat Bowe, President and Chief Executive Officer and Brian Valentine, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We are also pleased to have Bill Krueger, Chief Operating Officer, join our call this quarter. After our prepared remarks, we will be happy to take your questions. I will now turn the call over to Pat.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone.

Speaker 1

Thank you for joining our call today to discuss our Q4 results and our initial outlook for 2024. First, as Mike mentioned, we're pleased to welcome Bill Krueger, Chief Operating Officer to the call. As many of you know, Bill brings over 30 years of ag commodity experience. He was CEO of Lansing Trade Group at the time of the acquisition in 2019 and was President of our Trade and Renewables segments prior to assuming the COO role last year. We look forward to him sharing his thoughts during the Q and A session later.

Speaker 1

Record 4th quarter results led to a 3rd consecutive year of very strong earnings. Both trade contributed significantly to the quarter with renewables setting a new adjusted Q4 earnings record and trade delivered another strong quarter. Nutrien and Industrial results were up slightly compared to last year on an adjusted basis. We ended 2023 with adjusted pretax income of $159,000,000 which was our 2nd best year ever. Adjusted EBITDA ended the year at $405,000,000 just behind the 2022 record adjusted EBITDA.

Speaker 1

Earlier in the year, we anticipated a greater year over year reduction from 2022, but we were able to make up some of the shortfall through our operating performance in a strong margin environment in our renewables business. The trade business posted a very strong 4th quarter with enhanced performance in our Eastern grain assets. These results included basis improvement after a later harvest and income earned on drying wet grain received from farmers. Recent acquisitions in the pet food ingredient space made positive bottom line contributions. Our renewables business set a new 4th quarter adjusted earnings record.

Speaker 1

This was due to a combination of record total production from our 4 plants, an improvement in ethanol yield and much improved board crush margins. Our low carbon intensive renewable diesel feedstock and feed ingredient merchandising product lines also improved. Nutrient and industrial improved slightly over the Q4 of last year on an adjusted basis on higher volumes and lower expenses. Agricultural product lines led the gross profit improvement. Manufactured product lines continue to be impacted by reduced consumer demand.

Speaker 1

Overall, I'm thrilled with a 3rd consecutive year of very strong results. I'm also very proud of the team and how they optimize performance in a period of positive Ag fundamentals. I'm now going to turn things over to Brian to cover some of our key financial information. When he's finished, I'll be back to discuss our early outlook for 2024. Brian?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Pat, and good morning, everyone. We're now turning to our 4th quarter results on Slide 5. In the Q4 of 2023, the company reported net income from continuing operations attributable to the Andersons of $51,000,000 or $1.49 per diluted share and adjusted net income of $55,000,000 or 1 point of $34,000,000 or $0.98 per diluted share in the Q4 of 2022. Overall, 4th quarter gross profit of $218,000,000 was up more than 25% compared to $170,000,000 in 2022. Both trade and renewables showed increases, partially offset by Nutrient and Industrial.

Speaker 3

For the full year, gross profit of $745,000,000 increased 9% from $684,000,000 in 2022. Adjusted EBITDA for the 4th quarter was $135,000,000 up more than $30,000,000 compared to $104,000,000 in the Q4 of 2022. Full year adjusted EBITDA was $405,000,000 just below the $412,000,000 we achieved in 2022. We recorded taxes for the quarter at a 15% effective tax rate and for the full year at 22%. Our effective tax rate varies each quarter based primarily on the amount of income attributable to non controlling interests.

Speaker 3

Now let's move to Slide 6 to review our cash flows and liquidity. We generated 4th quarter cash flow from operations before working capital changes of $122,000,000 in 2023 compared to $90,000,000 in 2022. Full year cash flow of $330,000,000 increased $15,000,000 year over year. This strong cash flow generation and our continued focus on working capital management combined with lower commodity prices resulted in negligible short term borrowings at year end. We ended the year with cash of $644,000,000 which was in excess of our total debt.

Speaker 3

Next, let's turn to Slide 7 to review our capital spending and long term debt. We continue to take a disciplined responsible approach to capital spending and investments, which were in line with our expectations $152,000,000 for the year. Our long term debt to EBITDA ratio is 1.5 times, still well below our stated target of less than 2.5 times. We continue to evaluate growth projects and acquisitions and have a strong balance sheet that will support those investments that meet our strategic and financial criteria. Now we'll move on to a review of each of our 3 segments, beginning with Trade on Slide 8.

Speaker 3

Trade reported 4th quarter pre tax income of $44,000,000 and adjusted pre tax income of $47,000,000 compared to adjusted pre tax income of $52,000,000 in the same period of 2022. Our grain assets had a good 4th quarter with strong elevation margins and drying income from a wet corn harvest. The premium ingredients business had a significant improvement from the prior year, including good results from recent capital investments and our recent acquisitions of Bridge Agri and ACJ International. Our merchandising portfolio delivered solid results with a mix of market challenges and opportunities across the commodities and geographies in which we merchandise. Challenges include ongoing geopolitical impacts and general weakness in the Middle East and North Africa region.

Speaker 3

As expected, we were able to resolve substantially all of the remaining Egyptian currency issues during the Q4. Trade's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $62,000,000 compared to adjusted EBITDA of $72,000,000 in the Q4 of 2022. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year was $155,000,000 in 2023 compared to $199,000,000 in 2022. Moving to Slide 9, renewables generated record 4th quarter pre tax income attributable to the company of $33,000,000 compared to $13,000,000 in 2022. Outstanding operating performance in our 4 ethanol plants resulted in record ethanol production and improved yields in a strong crush margin environment.

Speaker 3

Improved renewable diesel feedstock and feed ingredient merchandising volumes also added to earnings. For the full year, our team sold approximately £1,300,000,000 of renewable diesel feedstocks, an increase of 60% when compared to 2022. Renewables had EBITDA of $73,000,000 in the Q4 of 2023, more than double when compared to $36,000,000 in the Q4 of 2022. For the full year, renewables generated adjusted EBITDA of $230,000,000 in 2023, up $50,000,000 compared to $180,000,000 in 2022. Turning to Slide number 10, the Nutrient and Industrial Business reported 4th quarter adjusted pre tax income of $2,000,000 which was a slight increase from the Q4 of 2022.

Speaker 3

Agriculture product sales volume increased approximately 3% in the quarter with comparable per ton margins. Manufactured products had improved results in our turf business, but continued to experience lower demand in the contract manufacturing business. Results also include a $2,000,000 charge relating to a standstill agreement for an acquisition that we elected not to pursue. Nutrient and Industrial's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $11,000,000 just above the Q4 of 2022. For the full year, Nutrient and Industrial recorded EBITDA of $62,000,000 a decline of $11,000,000 from 20 22's record performance.

Speaker 3

And with that, I'll turn things back over to Pat for some comments about our early 2024 outlook.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Brian. Coming off another strong year, we remain optimistic about our growth prospects, but acknowledge a shift in the ag fundamentals as global supply has replenished the low stocks of the last few years and commodity prices have declined. Over these 3 strong years, we've made investments in our core assets as well as successfully completing several small bolt on acquisitions in key product lines. We've also grown organically through new merchandising desks, focusing on new commodities and geographies with expected growth. Now as we've seen a reduction in commodity prices, our teams are prepared to meet these new fundamentals by leveraging our balanced portfolio of assets and merchandising product lines.

Speaker 1

Our trade business outlook remains positive, but is likely to have a slower start to the year as farmers have been reluctant to make forward sales on lower market prices. In addition, expectations for higher wheat storage income have faded given the large export purchases China made in the 4th quarter. With our strong North American asset network, we are well positioned to handle grain when it's brought to market and earn space income. We expect some shifts in the mix of U. S.

Speaker 1

Crops for 2024, but still anticipate significant quantities of corn in our key draw areas. Our mix of assets and merchandising should continue to provide us with opportunities for handling large grain harvests as well as opportunistic commodity merchandising. We have continued to grow our premium ingredients business and expect it to become a larger component of the overall trade segment. Seasonally weak demand has reduced ethanol crush margins into the Q1 as is typical for our renewables segment. We believe that industry maintenance shutdowns and spring driving miles may positively influence crush margins beginning in the Q2.

Speaker 1

Weaker corn prices are expected to reduce feed values. We should acknowledge that the industry's ethanol plants continue to age, leading to longer shutdowns and lower plant efficiencies. But our continued commitment to maintaining our plants should set our assets apart. We continue to make investments in our plants to improve their efficiency and reliability as well as to improve both the quality and yield of distillers corn oil, a low carbon intensive input to the renewable diesel industry. We're also exploring a number of investments that will help to lower the carbon intensity of our ethanol production, allowing us to participate in future sustainable aviation fuel initiatives.

Speaker 1

This includes exploring carbon sequestration opportunities for our 3 Eastern plants where the geology is favorable. And additional combined heat and power generation to run our plants more efficiently. Finally, we expect to continue to grow our renewable diesel feedstock merchandising through offtake and supply agreements with 3rd parties. Even with an expected reduction in farmer income, we continue to anticipate solid demand for the fertilizers and specialty liquids that we supply in our Nutrient and Industrial segment. Our fertilizer and related product offerings are critical to maximizing production for farmers in the areas we serve.

Speaker 1

And we believe that the current grain prices will still support application of fertilizers and specialty crop inputs. As always, weather in the planting season will impact timing and our margin opportunity, but we continue to have good supplier support as we sell through our own retail farm centers as well as 3rd parties. In our turf product lines, we're taking steps to improve our operations and continue to look for further opportunities in this space. We continue to explore North American agricultural growth opportunities. I've highlighted a number of growth areas that we're exploring in each of our 3 segments, and we'll continue to remain disciplined in our approach.

Speaker 1

As a reminder, in late 2017, we established an EBITDA goal of $300,000,000 by 2020, which was approximately double our 2017 result. We exceeded this goal on a run rate basis and then increased our EBITDA target to $350,000,000 to $375,000,000 by 2023, which we exceeded each of the last 2 years. This growth was only possible through the focus on strategy, a mix of organic and acquisition growth and our team's hard work and successful execution. We remain focused on achieving our 2025 run rate EBITDA target of $475,000,000 which will be reliant on both internal growth and the successful completion of acquisitions. We'll continue to make responsible decisions And now we'll be happy to take your questions.

Speaker 1

Thank

Speaker 4

Brian, my first question is for you. Just as it relates to capital spending, what are you expecting in terms of capital expenditures for 2024? And what portion of that is maintenance CapEx versus growth CapEx?

Speaker 2

Sure. Yes. Thanks, Ben, and

Speaker 3

good morning. I would say for 2024, we're targeting something in the range of $150,000,000 to $175,000,000 and it would probably be, call it, equal balance between maintenance and growth CapEx is how I would model it. And that does not include M and A. So that would be just our growth in maintenance capital.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. Recognizing that there is seasonality to the balance sheet, you're in a net cash position at the conclusion of this year, which is pretty remarkable. The business seems to be performing really well notwithstanding, Pat, the shifts in the ag cycle that you alluded to. The stock is trading at 6 times the next 12 months consensus EBITDA estimate. That's an exceptionally low valuation on the business.

Speaker 4

How do you think about the rank ordering of why not buying back stocks versus having dry powder to pursue acquisitions? It sounds like you have the flexibility to do all of it. So why not be more static in your repurchase activity of shares given the valuation where it is?

Speaker 3

Yes. Ben, that's a fair question. And I think from our perspective, we have a robust pipeline of potential M and A projects and other growth projects that we're looking at that are in various stages of completion. And I think as we look at it, we're thinking of it from a, call it, a balanced approach through investments in growth, but also potential returns to shareholders. The other thing I would say is, and I'm sure you're aware of this, we do tend to have we have a few $100,000,000 that goes out the door in early January for things like farmer hold pays and deferrals deferred pay.

Speaker 3

And so I would say we're going to continue to take a balanced approach and try to make sure we're doing what is in the best interest of all stakeholders and shareholders.

Speaker 1

Maybe I'll add on to that, Ben, and very good points. I think the thing is, let's just look back at this last year, we completed 4 bolt on acquisitions, albeit smaller, 2 were in the Pet Ingredients segment. And we've also invested in our food corn and our food ingredients business as well as doing improvements in our ethanol plant. So those are all to structure our business to make it stronger in the long run. And those really don't aren't dependent on Ag cycle or particular export moves, etcetera.

Speaker 1

So I would like to think of it, we have 50 plus profit centers in this kind of broad portfolio in North American Ag and that's about serving our customers, right. So that whether it be food, feed or fuel, on food whether it's for oatmeal production or corn for chip production or pet food. And then in our big feed customers, cattle, swine, poultry, those are critical customers that are very consistent in North America. And then of course in the fuel industry with ethanol and now RDC Feedstocks, we're positioned to really service those customers and that's where we are targeting our investments. And I think it's important now to be really well poised with a strong balance sheet to be able to invest for the long term, especially as we look to make our ethanol plants lower CI.

Speaker 1

So I think we're in a really good position to invest in these key verticals that can lead to long term growth for the company.

Speaker 4

Okay, very good. Makes perfect sense. Last question for me, maybe just panning out a bit and Pat, you touched on this a little bit, I think with a little bit more focus to the near term. But

Speaker 3

can you offer us your state

Speaker 4

of the union on how you're seeing the ag cycle play out in 2024, 2025 with what you can see down the line right now and how you think the Andersons is positioned relative to that to maximize shareholder value?

Speaker 1

Sure. Very good point. And I'll start off and then maybe I'll turn it over to Bill, who's very close to this. So I think for us, it's important to think about, as I was mentioning earlier, how to position our business regardless of the cycle, if it's a big export period or big high soybean crush or corn conversion to ethanol margins. I think the consistent thing for us is to make sure your assets are very strong and well positioned.

Speaker 1

We've talked about this in ethanol. We feel our plants are very large and efficient with modern technologies, want to continue to invest in those. And now as we mentioned, we're looking at carbon sequestration of those 3 Eastern plants. Our Western plant would need to be a pipeline play, but our 3 Eastern plants are well suited for geology to be able to do that. That's going to be well positioned for the long term for a potential South place.

Speaker 1

So we want to make sure we invest properly to do that. And in our grain business, we've really diversified across a broad array of products, right. So we talked about from feed to different feeding of different animals in North America as well as different food ingredients. We've improved some of our food corn capability last year. So we're trying to those things aren't reliant, for example, on a big export market because exports have slowed in North America with Brazil really coming on strong supply in China.

Speaker 1

So we want to position ourselves to be able to be successful, whether it's a big bold grain market or a softer grain market. So we have big crops. We talked a couple of years ago about the need to have 2 or 3 crop cycles of good harvest to get back to a balanced S and D. And that's what's happened now. We had a big South American production and then a good North American production this year.

Speaker 1

So we're set up very well now from a global balance sheet on Grains. But as you well know, this can change quickly with weather conditions changing or some geopolitical issues. So I think the bottom line, we just want to stay very well positioned and continue to deploy capital in areas of E for a long term growth. And Bill can probably update more about the macro on grain and ethanol. Thank you, Pat.

Speaker 1

Good morning, Ben.

Speaker 5

I'll just kind of add to what Pat was saying there. If you look across the entire industry, egg cycles come and go. This is going to be a really good opportunity for the Andersons to be able to collectively utilize the acquisition of Lansing, which was more focused on merchandising, our historic asset footprint in the East and what we've grown in the Western Corn Belt. So I think our opportunities as we go into this stocks building mode, which is what I'm pretty sure you're referencing, I think it's going to be one that offers opportunities to the Andersons and maybe more so than it has historically. There's a lot of things that we're looking at also.

Speaker 5

We all well documented growth of soybean crush in the U. S. Across North America, if you want to include the canola. That's going to provide opportunities for companies like the Andersons. And we're really looking forward on capitalizing that.

Speaker 5

We are not in the soybean or canola crush business, but we are in the feed distribution business. We do understand the flows of grains and grains products, and we think there's going to be opportunities around the meal. And then lastly, just to add to Pat's comment around renewables. We have been very focused the last 5 years on making sure that our ethanol plants continue to be very efficient, very focused on where we want to develop long term. We think that's a good spot to be on ethanol.

Speaker 5

We also like the renewable diesel feedstock business. And our understanding of how the different co products going into renewable diesel have an interplay and are able to take advantage of those.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks for all the color. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Ben Klieve with Lake Street Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

All right.

Speaker 7

Thanks for taking my questions and congratulations guys on a really good quarter here and great end of the year. A few questions. First of all, the follow-up to your comments on the Renewables segment and investing in carbon sequestration initiatives in advance of ethanol to jet. Can you talk about how you are considering your project here in the context of kind of the pending news coming out of the administration for the ultimate eligibility of ethanol as a feed stock to sustainable aviation fuel? I mean, how contingent are your initiatives on whatever comes out of the federal agencies here in the next couple of months?

Speaker 5

Good morning. I'm going to assume you're referencing the rules and regulations around 45 C?

Speaker 3

Yes. Okay.

Speaker 5

With that assumption, there's a lot of planning that needs to go into these projects. And as an organization, we've spent the last several months working on that plan, we have a pretty good feel on what we think is going to come out of the final rulings. But as we know, that is very instrumental on being able to go forward with the projects. And we're no different than any other ethanol company just looking at opportunities. There are going to be ways that we can enhance our ethanol plants with CCS, and we're focused on moving forward with those.

Speaker 5

And to the other point that you made in referencing ethanol to jet, there really isn't any ethanol to jet without low carbon ethanol. And that's what we're really focused on is making sure that we're able to participate in that market when it happens.

Speaker 1

Maybe I'll add on to that, Ben, just to frame it up a little bit for people's background. Our 4 plants are 3 Eastern plants in Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. We feel have favorable geology to be able to conduct carbon sequestration. 2 of those plants today, we already capture CO2 for beverage grade use. So we're prioritizing where we think we can get the quickest bang for our buck with sequestration investment and also to position ourselves long term to be very efficient on our making investments in our energy centers and making them lower costs as well as capture some lower CI in our combined heat and power projects.

Speaker 1

We've been successful with those already. We have combined heat power capacity at our plants, but we want to continue to beef that up because our strategy is basic that we think that the larger scale, highly efficient modern plants that have really good transportation economics and can have a lower CI score by sequestration will be the long term winners. And it's just kind of that simple. So that's where we're positioned our plants to be. Our one plant in Iowa will be part of a pipeline project, whatever that would come to pass, just like line up with other plants in Iowa.

Speaker 1

So we think we're in a good position on a relative basis to competitors, and we just need to execute against that doing the proper investments.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's very helpful context from both of you there. I appreciate that. As a kind of follow on question to this concept, but in the renewable diesel feedstock business, 60% growth rate last year that I think you called out, that's phenomenal. Can you talk about your expectations for the continued growth trajectory in that business in terms of both the market maybe slowing down a little bit from capacity utilization, but also your ability to maybe take share.

Speaker 7

Do you expect a kind of a 60% number to be sustainable going into next year? Do you think that's going to taper a bit given those 2 kind of big picture puts and takes?

Speaker 1

I'll start and Bill has more expertise here that we started this trading desk for RDF stocks at the beginning of this industry. Of course, we had our cornerstone of our own corn oil to be positioned, but we've been very successful to partner with a lot of people, both on the sell side and the buy side and really have gotten to know these markets well and have a really crackerjack team that's doing a great job here and we've grown very fast. As Brian mentioned, our growth rate is well over £1,000,000,000 We set a target to be £2,000,000,000 by 2025. We feel that's achievable. We've looked at acquisitions in this space.

Speaker 1

We haven't found one that fits real well with us, but we'll continue to look for opportunities, especially in the lower CI feedstocks, which is in the fats and greases and used cooking oil. So we think there's opportunity for us to enhance and get bigger. I don't know about a magic 60% growth rate target you said, but I think it's plotting a way where we can feel we can position ourselves best to service our customers. And that's what we're focused on. Bill can add some more color to that.

Speaker 5

Yes, I would agree with Pat. There is still plenty of runway in our position, primarily low CI feedstock. I do understand your comment around some of the ebbs and flows that we've seen recently with plants, with supply. But what we're more focused on is utilizing both M and A around fixed assets and continuing to increase and grow the number of supply agreements both as offtake and as suppliers. So yes, we think that there is still a lot of runway in that business since it's only a little over 2 years old.

Speaker 7

Great. Very exciting. I appreciate that from both of you again. Bill, a question specific to you on merchandising. Can you comment on kind of the state of the state and merchandising heading into 2024, particularly in the context of corn prices just kind of trickling away here over the last couple of months.

Speaker 7

Is your profit per bushel taking a material hit in the current environment or are you guys able to be kind of steady state here in the face of corn prices?

Speaker 5

Good question. As we've talked a lot before, volatility is our friend when it comes to our true merchandising businesses. Our volumes continue to be steady, if not increasing. The approach that we've taken over the last couple of quarters is to really focus on, as we see a building of stock, what stocks in the U. S.

Speaker 5

Or North America, what can we do to work with our customers to come up with more value add products? And that's one area that we've been focusing on, not only in our premium ingredients business, but also in our traditional grain businesses. As commodity prices come down, there have been more opportunities with our customer base to look at some of these value added lines with the traditional grains. The other area that we are really experts in is North American transportation.

Speaker 2

And those

Speaker 5

opportunities will prove more valuable when you have excess supply and a lower commodity market, specifically grain. So yes, we won't see some of the large spikes, but we do think that the base is there with opportunities to grow that we'll be able to carry into any ag cycle.

Speaker 1

Maybe I can add on to that, Ben. Bill made some very good comments there. If you think about so corn slid down maybe $0.40 $0.50 call it $4.60 nearby, beans have been quite a bit worse. So beans is often one of the worst start we've seen at start of a calendar year down about $1.50 that we've seen in over 40 years. So I mean, beans have really declined quite a bit.

Speaker 1

The point that we like to think about that impacts our business as basis traders is really what are those domestic opportunities as Bill talked about on freight and working closely with our clients. And so what's changed is going from an inverse market to more of a carry market. We have some opportunities to do well in the inverse. For example, our Louisiana assets did very well in the last 2 years in an inverse being early corn to the market. But a carry comes back to our bigger eastern assets where we can earn storage income that we haven't seen that much of in the past couple of years.

Speaker 1

So it's kind of a balanced thing for us more than it's a negative thing. So we'd like to see, as Bill mentioned, some volatility, some freight arbitrage and opportunities to continue to work with our key clients and servicing their needs.

Speaker 7

Very good. Very good. Well, I appreciate that from both of you. Congratulations, get to you all for a great quarter. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 7

I want to get back in line.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Brian Wright with ROTH and K. M. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

MKM.

Operator

Couple of things. I just wanted to

Speaker 6

try and dig a little deeper to see about like what to think about as far as just the margin pressure on the ethanol business, just maybe contextualize it from a magnitude and just like are you saying that the ability to offset what the storage and merchandising is like it's kind of a one to one and just trying to think about like how that how your view and I know it's early on in the year, but just any help to think about the puts and the takes and what the net kind of impact is?

Speaker 1

Sure, Brian. And this is sometimes I feel like the old man of ethanol been around it for about 30 years is that the winter months are always our merchants did a very nice job with pre hedging some Jan, Feb and even a little bit into March ethanol. And we had those the benefit of that shows up in our Q4 earnings because we mark to market those hedges. So we don't see those in January, but we were able to did a nice job trading the ethanol market going into the start of the year. Again, that showed up in Q4 last year.

Speaker 1

Having said that, we were actually in a worse margin position on the Board at this time last year than we are this year. So I think that we're looking forward to what the spring season will be. It's interesting, I've done some reading about people talking about how driving mileage is an interesting little statistics for vacation planning, maybe the highest ever that people after COVID spent a lot of time traveling on summer vacations and spring breaks by cars. And now with airline tickets quite pricey and some challenges in some overseas locations to visit, there may be a record amount of spring and summer vacation travel. So that's kind of an interesting little tidbit.

Speaker 1

But bottom line is we see an improvement in the springsummer driving miles and a good balance in the ethanol S and D. So we're optimistic for a good margin recovery as we head into the latter part of the year. But Bill can provide a little more detail.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Pat. Yes, we as Pat just mentioned, the start to 2024 has actually been better than the start to 2023 was. And looking at kind of the 2024 calendar year, we will see increased production. We've had a couple plants come back online. But at the same time, we're likely going to see an increase in the blend rate every year.

Speaker 5

It continues to increase, I think, with the exception of 1 year. So we're expecting that trend to continue. We will see increased exports. With January off to a slow start, we're still confident that Canada specifically will continue to grow. And with ethanol being in such a steep discount to RBOB, countries that want to increase their blend rate are more than likely going to come to the U.

Speaker 5

S. With us being at such a discount to Brazil.

Speaker 1

So from our perspective,

Speaker 5

the balance sheet for ethanol really looks the same at the end of 'twenty four as it does or as it did at the end of 'twenty three. So I don't know that the forecast is that pessimistic. We just were able to see a lot of real strong opportunities throughout 2023 that we're not certain are going to repeat.

Speaker 6

Okay. No, that's very helpful. Thank you. I guess kind of to follow-up on that, given the COT short position of managed money in corn and soybean futures, just can you talk a little bit of like when those positions cover and historically like how significant that can be and how the duration of those covering kind of rallies can be?

Speaker 1

You make a very good point is that this I don't know if it's a record, but we have a very large short position, speculative short positions in the futures markets these days and they've been right. They've made some good money in those positions and when those are reversed, you'll see a bounce. And that timing of that and I think a lot of it in the fundamentals of the Ag SAC will be when we get farmers in the field ready to plant. That's when they the farmers make decisions on selling some corn. They haven't sold a lot early this year.

Speaker 1

So we expect to see as farmers get ready for the next crop cycle to probably sell some of that and they would likely to sell it on some kind of a rally. So if we get a short covering rally that would be well received by the farm community obviously. But these prices are lower off the last 2 year peaks, but these are not horrible prices, right? There is still at breakeven kind of numbers in corn given the current input costs. So this isn't a disaster year, it's just lower than we're off the peak the last couple of years.

Speaker 1

I don't know Bill on the trades, have you seen some other fundamentals there?

Speaker 5

No. I think, Brian, the short answer is any substantial rally with managed money coming out of their positions, I think will be offset with farmer hedging or farmer selling, which will mean commercial hedging.

Speaker 6

Got it. Okay. And then I guess lastly, if I could, can you talk maybe about the pet food impact on the business in the quarter? Is that to a level that we can talk a little bit about from a quantitative point?

Speaker 5

I'll take that, Brent. Yes, our pet food industry or our pet food business has continued to perform well, much like several industries, some of the premium products are being replaced with lower cost products due to the inflation in the consumers. But one interesting opportunity, as Brian mentioned, is 2 of our acquisitions, recent acquisitions between Bridge Agri and ACJ International, both are really focused on the pet food industry and that's brought a welcomed increase in our volume. It's also brought opportunities to our existing pet food industry that's allowed us to take advantage of the synergies that we expected out of those businesses. So in terms of continued growth and focus on the business, it is one of the key areas in our premium ingredients sectors that we are focused and honestly looking at more growth opportunities.

Speaker 3

And Brian, just to add a little more context even on Bridge and ACJ, I think we previously, when we announced those, had commented that we thought that they the combination of the 2 would add incremental EBITDA of about $5,000,000 to $10,000,000 a year. I would say, we're on track to meet or actually probably trend a little bit higher than that.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. And this concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Holzer for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Rocco. We want to thank you all for joining us this morning. Our next earnings conference call is scheduled for Wednesday, May 8, 2024 at 11 am Eastern Time, when we will review our Q1 results. As always, thank you for your interest in The Andersons, and we look forward to speaking with you again soon.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.

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Earnings Conference Call
Andersons Q4 2023
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