Marathon Oil Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 22, 2024

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Marathon Royal 4Q and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Guy Baber, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you very much, and thanks as well to everyone for joining us on our call this morning. Yesterday, after the close, we issued a press release, a slide presentation and an investor packet that address our Q4 2023 results and our full year 2024 outlook. Those documents can be found on our website atmarathonoil.com. Joining me on today's call are Lee Tillman, our Chairman, President and CEO Dane Whitehead, our Executive VP and CFO Pat Wagner, Executive VP of Corporate Development and Strategy and Mike Henderson, our Executive VP of Operations. As a reminder, today's call will contain forward looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements.

Speaker 1

I'll refer everyone to the cautionary language included in the press release and presentation materials as well as to the risk factors described in our SEC filings. We'll also reference certain non GAAP terms in today's discussion, which have been reconciled and defined in our prepared materials. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Lee and the rest of the team, who will provide prepared remarks. After the completion of their prepared remarks, we'll move to a question and answer session. And in the interest of time, we ask that you limit yourselves to one question and a follow-up.

Speaker 1

Lee? Thank you, Guy, and good morning to everyone joining us on our call today. As I always start these calls, I want to 1st and foremost thank our employees and contractors for their dedication and hard work in delivering the excellent results we have the privilege of discussing today. And I especially want to thank our employees and contractors for their enduring commitment to our core values. On that front, we have a few notable accomplishments to highlight today.

Speaker 1

First, we delivered a record safety year in 2023 as measured by total recordable incident rate for both our employees and our contractors. This builds on a multiyear track record of top quartile TRIR in our industry. Providing a safe, healthy and secure workplace remains a top priority for us, with our safety performance a key element of our executive and employee compensation scorecards. 2nd, we continue to make progress in reducing our natural gas flaring, improving our total company gas capture to 99.5% in 2023, a new high for our company. We'll continue to work hard on our journey of continuous improvement, moving toward our ultimate objective of 0 routine learning.

Speaker 1

And third, we achieved our 20 25 GHG intensity reduction goal of 50% relative to 2019 levels, a full 2 years ahead of schedule, consistent with our objective to help meet the world's growing demand for oil and natural gas while achieving the highest standards of environmental excellence. We are a results driven company, but how we deliver those results matters, and I couldn't be more proud of our people and what they've accomplished. Yet this type of delivery isn't new for us. It's the continuation of a well established trend. And before I get into our 2023 results and 2020 4 outlook, I'd like to reflect on what I believe is our unmatched track record of delivery on our framework for success.

Speaker 1

We're now more than 3 years into our more S and P less E and P journey. My challenge to our company was to raise our game and compete heads up with not just the best companies in our sector, but with the best companies in the S and P 500 and to do so year in, year out through the commodity cycle on the metrics that matter most: sustainable free cash flow generation, return of capital to shareholders, and capital and operating efficiency. For the last 3 years, we've consistently held true to our framework for success. We've prioritized corporate returns, sustainable free cash flow, meaningful return of capital, and we delivered differentiated execution quarter in, quarter out. We've continued to enhance our multi basin portfolio, which has produced the best capital efficiency in the sector.

Speaker 1

And we protected our investment grade balance sheet while prioritizing all elements of our ESG performance. I believe our commitment to our strategy and the consistency of our execution over the last 3 years have successfully differentiated Marathon Oil in the marketplace. The proof points are summarized in Slide 6 of our deck. 1st, sustainable free cash flow generation. Through disciplined corporate returns focused capital allocation, we generated $8,400,000,000 of free cash flow over the trailing 3 years.

Speaker 1

That equates to over 60% of our current market cap, almost double that of our E and P peers and 6 times that of the S and P 500. Next, a meaningful return of capital to shareholders. Over the last 3 years, we've consistently held true to our transparent, cash flow driven return of capital framework that prioritizes our investors as the first call on cash flow, not the drill bit and not inflation. In total, we've returned $5,600,000,000 to our shareholders, equivalent to over 40% of our current market cap. Again, that's double that of our E and P peers and well in excess of the S and P 500.

Speaker 1

Capital and operating efficiency, a testament to the quality of our multi basin portfolio and the extreme discipline inherent in both our capital allocation and cost structure. Over the trailing 3 years, we've delivered the lowest reinvestment rate in the E and P sector below the S and P average. And our well level capital efficiency according to independent third party data has been the best in the E and P's peer space, 35% superior to the peer average. And 2023 was emblematic of these three proof points. Last year, we delivered $2,200,000,000 of adjusted free cash flow, dollars 1,700,000,000 of shareholder distributions equivalent to 41% of our CFO providing a shareholder distribution yield of more than 12 percent, dollars 1,500,000,000 of share repurchases that drove a 9% reduction to our outstanding share count, a 22% increase to our base dividend while maintaining our pure low free cash flow breakeven, dollars 500,000,000 of gross debt reduction and 28% growth in our production per share, driven by our share repurchase program and the seamless integration of the Ensign Eagle Ford acquisition.

Speaker 1

That's what comprehensive delivery on our key properties looks like. And if you like 2023, then you will not be disappointed in our 2024 business plan, which offers more of the same as we continue to build on our multi year track record. We have confidence in our strategy and in our capital allocation and return of capital frameworks and our focus will be on consistently executing our plan amidst all the volatility inherent in our sector. And at the end of the day, I expect our plan to again benchmark with the very best companies in our sector outperforming the S and P 500. More specifically, this year we expect our $2,000,000,000 capital program

Speaker 2

to deliver

Speaker 1

$900,000,000 of free cash flow assuming $75 WTI, $2.50 Henry Hub and $10 TTF. We fully recognize that we are a price taker, not a price predictor, and commodity price volatility impacts our financial outcomes. As such, we've provided cash flow sensitivities for each of the key commodities within our slide deck to help you model expectations based on your own commodity forecast. We'll stay true to our CFO return of capital framework expecting to return at least 40% of our CFO to shareholders, again providing visibility to a double digit shareholder distribution yield. We expect the underlying capital efficiency of our 2024 capital program to improve as we maintain our well productivity leadership and work all avenues to improve capital efficiency, including further extending lateral lengths.

Speaker 1

And perhaps most importantly, we believe our results are sustainable. That's true for our U. S. Multi basin portfolio That's true for our U. S.

Speaker 1

Multi basin portfolio and that's true for our Integrated Gas business and EG. As you all know, our EG business now has no Henry Hub exposure with the expiration of our legacy contract at the end of 2023. That business is now fully realizing global LNG pricing, which will drive improved financial performance this year. We believe this improvement is sustainable due to all the great work our team has done to advance the EG gas mega hub concept. For example, over the next 5 years, we're expecting our EG business to generate cumulative EBITDAX of approximately $2,500,000,000 assuming flat $10 TTF commodity pricing.

Speaker 1

With that, I'll turn it over to Dane, who will walk through our commitment to return of capital, while also fortifying our investment grade balance sheet.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Lee, and

Speaker 2

good morning, everybody. As Lee mentioned, in 2023, we continued building on a peer leading track record of returning capital to shareholders as consistent with our differentiated cash flow driven framework that prioritizes our shareholder as the first call on capital. Importantly, we did this while continuing to make progress on our balance sheet objectives through $500,000,000 of gross debt reduction. We've built a track record of providing a truly compelling shareholder return proposition, while at the same time continuing to enhance our investment grade balance sheet. Both in 2023 and that's my expectation again for 2024.

Speaker 2

More specifically, on our 2023 return of capital delivery, total shareholder returns amounted to $1,700,000,000 including more than $400,000,000 during the Q4. That translates to 41% of our CFO consistent with our framework and an annual distribution yield of over 12% on our current market cap, compelling relative to any investment opportunity in the market. The majority of shareholder returns came in the form of share repurchases, which reduced our share count by 9% last year. That's about double the share count reduction of our next closest competitor. For full year 2023, we grew our oil production per share by a peer leading 28% due to our share repurchase program and the integration of the accretive Ensign acquisition in the U.

Speaker 2

K. Looking to 2024, we expect to prioritize free cash flow via our disciplined capital allocation framework and holding our top line oil production flat. We also remain focused on driving significant per share growth and fully expect to maintain our long held leadership position in the peer group. While the majority of our capital returns in 2023 came in the form of share repurchases, our base dividend remains foundational and we remain committed to paying a competitive and sustainable base dividend to our shareholders. During 2023, we raised our base dividend by 22%, one of the strongest growth rates in our sector.

Speaker 2

Importantly, we did so with laser focus on sustainability, maintaining one of the lowest post dividend free cash flow breakevens in the peer group. Our consistent and committed approach to shareholder returns over the last 3 years has positively differentiated our company and our approach in 2024 will remain the same. Priority number 1 remains consistently delivering returns of at least 40% of our CFO the form of share repurchases and base dividends. That minimum 40% level translates to about $1,600,000,000 of expected shareholder distributions at a reference price deck, again providing visibility to a compelling double digit shareholder distribution yield. With our stock trading in the low $20 per share range and at a free cash flow yield in the mid teens at strip pricing, repurchases remain highly value accretive.

Speaker 2

They're also a very efficient means to continue driving our per share growth and are highly synergistic with continuing to grow our per share based dividend without negatively impacting our peer leading free cash flow breakeven. To summarize our 2024 return on capital plans, at least 40% of our CFO to shareholders, which will be near the top of our sector, driving peer leading per share growth and competitive sustainable growth in our base dividend. We're also committed to further improving our investment grade balance sheet and we plan to direct excess cash flow to continue reducing gross debt. We have tremendous financial strength and flexibility in our capital structure with net debt to EBITDA approximately one times and strip pricing. We have $400,000,000 of tax exempt bonds to mature this year.

Speaker 2

This is a really unique vehicle in our capital structure and will likely remarket those at an advantaged interest rate relative to taxable debt as we've done previously. We also have plenty of flexibility to manage the 1.2% remaining outstanding on our Ensign term loan due at the end of this year. The markets are wide open for us to potentially refinance a portion of that debt. And as a reminder, we have $2,100,000,000 of available capacity on our credit facility that matures in 2027. And even if we opt to refinance in total the maturing tax exempt bonds and the term loan, we will retain capacity to pay off at par almost $1,500,000,000 of commercial paper and bonds, which would get us to our medium term gross debt goal of $4,000,000,000 One final comment from me on our 2024 outlook before I turn it over to Mike to walk through some of the details of our capital program.

Speaker 2

Consistent with our prior messaging, our 2024 financial guidance assumes we'll transition to becoming an alternative minimum tax or AMT cash taxpayer this year. The AMT tax rate is 15% on our pre tax U. S. Income. Our primary exposure here is domestic as our EG income will largely be offset by current year foreign tax credits.

Speaker 2

The new information we're providing today involves research and development or R and D tax credits. We recently completed a study of capital spent in past years on organic enhancement activities that qualify for R and D tax credits. As a result, we expect to apply approximately $150,000,000 of these R and D tax credits this year as a direct offset to a significant portion of our 2024 AMT cash payments, a direct benefit to our free cash flow that's most likely not included in any sell side models at this point. With that, I'll hand over to Mike, who will walk us through the finer points of our 2024 Capital program. Thanks, Steve.

Speaker 3

As we highlighted earlier, we're a results driven company. So I'll start with the expected bottom line results of our 2024 capital program. We expect our $2,000,000,000 capital program to deliver $1,900,000,000 of free cash flow with 1 of the lowest reinvestment rates and free cash flow breakevens in the segment. This will enable us to deliver our investors a truly compelling shareholder return profile. We fully anticipate these bottom line financial outcomes and the underlying capital efficiency of our 2024 program to again benchmark at the very top of our high quality E and P peer group.

Speaker 3

To deliver these outcomes, we'll operate approximately 9 rigs and 4 frac crews on average this year. We expect our capital program to again be first half weighted with about 60% of our CapEx concentrated in the first half of the year, largely a function of timing of our wells to sales. This should drive stronger production and underlying free cash flow over the second half of the year. At the midpoint of our full year guidance, we expect to deliver flat total company oil production of approximately 190,000 barrels of oil per day, consistent with what we previewed last quarter. Yet importantly, as Dane highlighted, we fully expect to continue driving significant growth in oil production on a per share basis.

Speaker 3

We're guiding to a modest year on year decline in our oil equivalent production this year. This BOE decline is largely a function of well mix and our focus on value over volume. Given the extreme weakness in natural gas prices relative to oil, we're allocating capital to the oil waste and thus highest volume areas in each of our plays consistent with our prioritization of corporate returns and free cash flow generation. We're also expecting some modest ongoing base decline in Equatorial Guinea. As is typical for our business and consistent with last year, there will be some quarter to quarter variability in our production.

Speaker 3

1st quarter should mark a low point for the year impacted by about 4,000 barrels of oil per day of winter weather related outages, largely concentrated in the Bakken. We'll then grow from 1st quarter levels as we bring more wells to sales as the year progresses. Now to the more important details of our 2024 program. We expect to deliver our flat oil production guidance with 5% to 10% fewer net wells to sales than last year. This is a function of improving underlying capital efficiency, driven by durable well productivity at peer leading levels, an additional 5% increase to our average lateral lengths and modest deflation recapture that is built on conservative underlying assumptions.

Speaker 3

Approximately 70% of our total capital will be allocated to our high confidence Eagle Ford and Bakken programs, we have a demonstrated track record of execution excellence. For 2023, external state data indicates we delivered 6 month per foot oil productivity, 60% better than the basin average in the Eagle Ford and 40% better than the basin average in the Bakken. With our cost structure, we believe we're leading each basin in capital efficiency. We expect another year of leading performance in 2024 as we maintain our productivity advantage and find ways to continue enhancing our capital efficiency. The bulk of our remaining resource play spend will be dedicated to the Permian, where we're increasing our activity and capital investment in a disciplined manner.

Speaker 3

Since getting back to work with a consistent D and C program in the Permian a couple of years ago, we've delivered among the best well productivity in the basin with competitive drilling completion performance. We're transitioning to an almost exclusive 2 mile plus lateral program. This year over 20% of our Permian wells will be 3 mile laterals. We'll get into more details in EG in a minute, but our EG CapEx will be up modestly this year with spend limited to long lead items in preparation for potential Alba infill program in 2020. Our non development capital is higher this year due largely to more environmental, regulatory and emissions related spending as well as some non recurring projects such as water infrastructure and pipeline additions.

Speaker 3

For context, a couple of years ago, this bucket represented about 5% of our total capital. It's about 10% this year. Importantly, however, we expect our non D and C capital to peak this year and to trend lower in 2025. I would also add that many of those projects designated as emissions related have the added economic benefit of enhancing our reliability and uptime performance. Now to Lee for EG and the wrap up.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Mike.

Speaker 1

Focusing on Slide 15 in our deck, with the expiration of our legacy Henry Hub linked LNG contract at the end of last year, our EG Integrated Gas business is now fully realizing global LNG pricing. And in January, we lifted our first cargo under these new contractual terms. Consistent with our prior disclosure, the majority of our Alba LNG sales are covered by the 5 year sales contract we announced last year. That contract is TTF linked. The balance of our 20 24 LNG cargoes have now all been contracted, but at a JKM price linkage.

Speaker 1

This will afford us a nice combination of both TTF and JKM price exposure this year. Although global LNG pricing has weakened somewhat on warmer winter weather, the arbitrage between global LNG and Henry Hub pricing is still significant and therefore should still drive improved financial performance for our international operations. We're guiding to $550,000,000 to $600,000,000 of EG EBITDAX this year assuming $10 TTF. That's a significant increase from actual 2023 EBITDAX generation of $390,000,000 Importantly, we don't expect this to be a 1 year financial uplift. For some time, we've been focused on sustaining this improved financial performance by progressing all elements of the EG gas mega hub concept supported by the HOA signed with the EG government and our partner last year.

Speaker 1

The 5 year EG EBITDAX outlook we're providing today is intended we expect to deliver cumulative EGE EBITDAX of approximately $2,500,000,000 assuming $10 TTF and $80 Brent flat. Beyond realizing global LNG pricing, there are a few drivers of the strong performance over the duration of the 5 year period. They include ongoing methanol volume optimization to maximize higher margin, higher working interest LNG throughput an Alba infill well program, which will help mitigate Alba decline and maximize the amount of Alba equity gas through the LNG plant in coming years and further monetization of 3rd party gas through the ethane gas cap as we continue to take full advantage of our unique and highly valuable gas monetization infrastructure in one of the most gas prone areas of the world. And while this 5 year EBITDAX scenario reflects the life of our recent global LNG sales agreement, we fully expect to extend the life of EG LNG beyond the next 5 years well into the next decade as we continue to advance the longer term gas mega hub concept. In summary, consistent with our more S and P mandate, for the last 3 years, we've been delivering financial performance highly competitive with the most attractive investment alternatives in the market, as measured by corporate returns, free cash flow generation and return of capital.

Speaker 1

I fully expect 2024 to build on this track record. Our compelling investment case is simple. A high quality, multi basin U. S. Portfolio and integrated global gas business that delivers peer leading free cash flow, a unique and differentiated return of capital framework that provides our shareholders with the first call on cash flow, the output of which is clear visibility to compelling shareholder distributions across a broad range of commodity prices, sector leading growth and per share metrics, and a multi year track record of consistent execution and proven discipline.

Speaker 1

And perhaps most importantly, everything we're doing is sustainable through the commodity cycle. This is due to the quality and depth of our U. S. Multi basin portfolio where we have over a decade of high return inventory and a disciplined and multifaceted approach to portfolio renewal. It's also due to our differentiated integrated gas business that's now fully realizing global LNG pricing as we continue progressing all elements of the regional gas mega hub concept.

Speaker 1

Rest assured, our commitment to our strategy is unwavering and is built upon our core values, resilience across the commodity cycle and our long term track record of success. With that, we can open the line for Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Our next question comes from Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan Chase. Please proceed.

Speaker 4

Good morning, Lee. Lee, I want to start off with on M and A. Obviously, a significant level of industry M and A activity, including a large transaction announced in your Bakken backyard last night. I was wondering if you could provide some perspective on how should we think about M and A for MRO post the Ensign transaction. And I did want to cite a recent example of a low cost Permian producer as a low cost structure such as yourself, did announce a deal to get more scale in the Permian adding more sticks on the map and the multiple appears to have rerated on that deal.

Speaker 4

So again, just some thoughts on where the M and A landscape and what this means for MRO?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thank you, Arun. First of all, size and scale are important, but it's not obviously just about getting bigger, it's about how do we get better. So any consolidation opportunity fundamentally needs to enhance our ability to execute on the path that we've been on really for the last 3 years that I just described in my opening remarks. We have a very clear, very transparent framework for assessing M and A.

Speaker 1

That framework is unchanged. And if anything, the bar is even higher now with the successful addition of the Ensign asset that you mentioned. And just as a reminder, Arun, there are really 5 elements of that criteria. 1st and foremost, of course, is accretion to financial metrics. Secondly, accretion to our cash flow driven return of capital framework 3rd, accretion to our resource or inventory life with inventory that competes for capital from day 1.

Speaker 1

Clear industrial logic, which to us means going into basins where we have a well established level of execution excellence and credibility and then finally, of course, doing all this without any harm to our investment grade balance sheet. We know that's a challenging criteria, but we can be discerning and we can be patient. As I mentioned, with over a decade plus of high quality inventory, we can wait for those opportunities like Ensign that ticks all the boxes. And that's what made Ensign so compelling. I mean, we integrated that asset into our operations in essentially a couple of months.

Speaker 1

Mike and his team did a fantastic job doing that. We never missed a step and we've seen others stumble in that very critical integration step. So can we be a acquirer? Absolutely. Should you expect us to still apply our criteria and be discerning and be as disciplined as we are in our organic business?

Speaker 1

Absolutely.

Speaker 4

Great. My follow-up is on EG Lee. You provided a 5 year outlook, which suggests relatively stable earnings profile or EBITDAX relative to your 2024 guide. I was wondering if you could talk about opportunities to extend these financial outcomes in EG beyond the 5 year threshold, as well as I was wondering if you could address the recent decision by a supermajor to exit EG? And does that open up any opportunities for you given that country exit?

Speaker 1

Absolutely. Well, first of all, I want to be very clear. The 5 year view we provided was really just a scenario that matched up with the LNG sales agreement that we just inked last year. And so you should not interpret that as a life of LNG kind of model. This was just to match up with that certainty that we now had around that 5 year TTF linked LNG sales agreement.

Speaker 1

The reality is that when we look at all of the things that we have active now in EG, whether that's methanol volume optimization, the future potential for Alba infill drilling and even more third party molecules like Asang, we already see the path to extend well past 2,030. So don't view that 5 year view as anything other than just matching up with, in fact, that 5 year sales agreement that we inked on TTF. In terms of exits out of EG by Supermajors, clearly, that's a very unique set of circumstances where you have a concession that's kind of at the end of its PSC term. It's a very mature oil play there. And again, pretty much end of field life that likely is going to be taken over by the government and run by the government.

Speaker 1

So very different set of opportunities than we would look like. And again, I would just take you back, Arun, to the criteria that we just talked about and making sure that we look

Speaker 3

at any opportunity through that same

Speaker 1

lens when we're talking about outside of that within EG, both from an equity molecule outside of that within EG, both from an equity molecule standpoint as well as a third party molecule standpoint. And the good news for us is when we're able to bring the ALEN molecules to EG LNG, that was our first kind of third party framework, we can now replicate that framework going forward and that project constructed a very significant piece of infrastructure that we can now use for the future. Great. Thanks a lot.

Speaker 4

See you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Neal Dingmann with Credit Securities. Please proceed.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Nice update. First question is likely for Mike. On your you mentioned, Mike, you referenced the leading operational efficiencies, which are noted. I'm just wondering, could you maybe give a little more detail, is it largely the longer laterals or maybe what other key drivers would you point us to that that's really driving this remarkable upside?

Speaker 3

Yes, we all Neil, I can certainly answer that. So yes, underlying resource play capital efficiency as we noted is improving in 2024 and I highlighted a few things there in my prepared remarks. But I think it probably starts with that consistently strong peer leading well productivity. When I look at our 2024 productivity by basin compared to 2023 And Eagle Ford, I would say 2024 is looking very comparable to what we delivered in 2023. When I look at the Bakken, I would actually say our productivity is up marginally in 20 24, really on the back of we are going to go back into Myrmidon and complete a few wells there.

Speaker 3

And then the Permian, it looks pretty flat from 23 to 24. So I think that's the first thing I would point to. The second thing, as you noted, was the longer laterals. We mentioned in the prepared remarks, they were up 5% at a company level. And Eagle Ford, they're up about 10% year on year.

Speaker 3

Even Bakken is up just notionally a couple of percentage points. And then you look at the Permian, they're up by 10% as well. And that is a big part of that capital efficiency driver. And then the third part is we are forecasting a little bit of deflation, albeit very modest kind of low single digit numbers there.

Speaker 5

Makes a lot of sense. And then my second question, Lee, maybe for you or Dan, just on capital allocation. I'm just wondering, is there anything that would cause you to move towards more towards the variable dividends? Or do you believe your active buyback program continues to be most strategic? And maybe around that, I mean, how should we continue to think about per share growth?

Speaker 5

Obviously, as you keep buying the shares back, it really continues to ramp that nicely. So I'd just love to hear your comments there.

Speaker 2

Yes. Hey, Neil. Good morning. This is Dane. I'll take a first cut at it.

Speaker 2

So the bottom line is expect our framework and sort of the mix of return vehicles to remain unchanged in 2024. We've said all along sort of variable dividend is a third mechanism that it's on the table, but it's not front and center for us at this point. The 40% return to shareholders is a very firm commitment. That's our primary commitment for use of capital. Base dividend, I talked about the sustainability of that base dividend is critically important to us.

Speaker 2

So dividend increases will probably be driven by the pace of share repurchases as much as anything because that kind of keeps the post dividend breakeven flat. And it's right now we're purely being in the low to mid-40s. Share buybacks again at mid teens, free cash flow yield, super efficient vehicle. And as you noted, they drive that per share growth on a pretty significant basis. The second use of CapEx or available cash for us and you saw us do some of it this year as pay down debt.

Speaker 2

We paid down $500,000,000 worth of debt last year. Our leverage levels are we're comfortable with? They're like one time net debt to EBITDA at strip pricing, but I'd like to get them down. And we've stated, we've got $5,400,000 of gross debt today. We'd like to drive that down to 4 percent gross debt, which was the pre Ensign debt level.

Speaker 2

And so we'll continue to allocate some excess free cash flow in excess of the 40 percent return to further improving the balance sheet.

Speaker 5

Great details. Thank you both. Oh,

Speaker 1

go ahead. Maybe I'll just add one thing to that too. I think the power of a consistent and meaningful share repurchase program, you really see that showing up in the growth in the per share metrics that really matter. If you just look at 2023, we took out 9 percent of our outstanding shares. That was roughly double the next best in our peer group.

Speaker 1

And of course, that translated into tremendous value growth on a per share basis for our shareholders. So we still believe in that. I mean again we kind of look through the cycle. It's a program that we set in place and let it run. We dollar average, and we think it's very powerful.

Speaker 1

If you rewind all the way back to October 2021, that 9% comes 27% of our shares outstanding that

Speaker 3

we've retired. So it's been

Speaker 1

a very powerful program for outstanding authorization against the repurchase program with our Board of Directors.

Speaker 5

Great point, Lee. Thank you all.

Operator

Our next question comes from Matt Birgitte with GP8.

Speaker 6

Good morning all. Two asset level questions that I wanted to run by you. I guess first in the Bakken, looking at the early time results on Ajax, looks quite encouraging from a production and productivity perspective. Just curious if you could talk about potentially your learnings on the spacing design here? And then also as you kind of look across your acreage position, how much of your Bakken acreage might be set up for 3 mile development moving forward?

Speaker 3

Yes, I'll answer that one, Matt. In terms of the spacing pattern there, it was in a kind of 5 by 0 spacing. So 5 wells in the middle Bakken, there's no Three Forks opportunity down there. And as you probably know, that's kind of down to the Southwest of the hectare area where we've been pretty active the last couple of years. What I'd say in terms of maybe a read through, probably feels a little bit early, don't have a lot of data to share.

Speaker 3

Obviously, we've just brought 3 of the wells online. We've got some early production there. What I'd probably tell you this quarter may well change next quarter. So rest assured, we'll continue to work our land position there hard. And if there are any opportunities to get more extended land flows, you can expect us to be talking about those in the future.

Speaker 1

I think one of the things I would add to Mike though is that certainly even though we're still waiting for a little bit more longitudinal production data to declare victory. When you look at the total well cost per foot and the savings that we've already captured there, it's very significant. So from an execution standpoint, we feel very good about the D and C performance. So as you said, early returns on the production side, very strong, but absolutely encouraging on the cost side on the D and C side.

Speaker 3

No, I'll maybe provide a little bit more color there. The first of the wells that we did execute in a TWC per foot base, we're looking at those to be 24 25%, sorry, below comparable to Meilers. And I think you couple that with the early production, couple of 1,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, 80% oil. The IPs will probably be not as stout as you might expect up in Hector, but I think you'll get that volumes back over the long term. So as Lee pointed out, you take the well productivity with the well costs.

Speaker 3

I would like to think that that's going to present a pretty compelling case for Ajax in the future.

Speaker 6

Great. And then just as a follow-up, it looks like the Texas Delaware is going to be about a third of your program give or take in 20 24. I'm curious one on the development plan here, are you moving towards development or are you still working on delineating the resource? I know that 2023 was still kind of a learning year for you. And then 2, just curious how well costs have progressed in this area?

Speaker 6

I think that was also kind of an initiative last year is to get more reps on wells and get the cost down in that Delaware play given that there's high productivity trends, but the cost side of the ledger still needed some work?

Speaker 7

Pat, this is Pat. I'll take the development piece and maybe I'll let Mike take the cost piece. Yes, as you said, this we moved this project into our development team last year. So it's still longer an exploration project. It is in our development program.

Speaker 7

As I think you probably know, we have 13 wells that have been online for some time, 9 in the Winford, 4 in the Maverick, and they continue to perform just as we expect. Excellent productivity, high oil cut, shallow declines, low borehole ratios. We will be bringing on 9 wells this year. 2 of those are leasehold wells and then there's 2 multi well pads that we'll be bringing on. We've gone to longer laterals.

Speaker 7

We have this 57,000 acre blocky position, so that gives us the ability to drill really long laterals. The wells we're bringing on this year will average around 2 miles. Next year for the wells we'll be drilling in the future will be up to 13,000 feet. From a development standpoint, we're still looking at 4x4 spacing in the Woodford and the Bearback. I think I hit it all there maybe.

Speaker 3

Yes, Matt. From a cost perspective, what I'd say is we're kind of still mid program, so to speak. We've just completed drilling the wells, not completed them yet. So don't have all of the data to share. What I would say is from a drilling perspective, costs are in line with kind of pre drill expectations.

Speaker 3

What I would say maybe the encouraging thing is as we progressed through the drilling, it seemed that the efficiencies were getting better. And therefore, when we do get all of the costs, then I would expect that you would see that natural, that improvement in the costs as we get, quite frankly, we should get more reps.

Speaker 1

Yes. One other thing I'll just mention too, this is a little bit of a subtlety, the fact that we brought the 2 asset teams, Permian and Oklahoma together, now that's under a single leadership structure. And this is one of the areas where we can benefit from learning. So, of course, Woodford Meramec drilling and completing in Oklahoma, that's something that we've already kind of cut our teeth in. So, we're bringing a lot of those learnings and expertise now into this, if will, joint asset team now that we have this Texas Delaware play with the Woodford Omero because it is challenging drilling.

Speaker 3

I mean,

Speaker 1

let's be honest, it's deeper, it's hard pressure, it's more challenging hard rock drilling. But bringing that expertise in from Oklahoma is certainly allowing us to advance up the learning curve a more efficiently. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 8

Yes. Good morning, Lee and team. First question I had was just post 2024 capital efficiency this year, another very strong year. But as you think about setting the sticks for 2025 and ensuring that you're able to sort of continue at this capital efficiency pace. Just some thoughts, post 2024, and can you hold $190,000,000 of oil at $2,000,000,000 of CapEx?

Speaker 1

Yes. Well, it feels like we're just now releasing 2024. So jumping ahead, 20 25 is a bit of a leap. But first of all, let me just say, Neal, we're we feel very good about our, I'll say, underlying well productivity. I think it's actually pretty remarkable when you think about the fact that we operated 2 of what the market uses very mature basins and we're still very much holding the line on productivity that is already at the top of the peer space.

Speaker 1

So I think you have to keep all of this in the proper context. And certainly, as we do our longer term modeling, clearly, Permian will start competing for a bit more capital. But we believe that from a productivity as well as a capital efficiency standpoint, certainly as we look out over the horizon, we see ways to continue to hold the line and certainly hold the line, if not improve on some metrics. And again, we have a lot of tools available to us, right? I mean, there's some of the things that Mike talked about.

Speaker 1

There's the fundamental well design, longer laterals, better completions. There's execution efficiency, stages per day, our rate of penetration on the drilling side, we're just talking about the Woodford hard rock drilling. There's supply chain optimization. We continue to work on how best to integrate and manage our supply chain. And then finally, there's just the sheer commercial leverage.

Speaker 1

You can kind of put that in the deflationinflation bucket. But all of those things give us an opportunity to continue to work on overarching capital efficiency as we move forward in time. Even though we may be moving to different parts, different geology, we certainly see a path to continue to protect our peer leading capital efficiency that we've worked very hard for.

Speaker 8

Thank you. Yes, and it definitely is notable. The question the follow-up question is just on the natural gas outlook in the U. S. It's obviously a tough environment as you referenced in your comments.

Speaker 8

So how is your designing your plan for 20 24 and you're thinking about which areas you want to prosecute? Are you trying to maximize the value of your net back seat? Thank

Speaker 1

you. Yes. I think Mike was pretty clear in describing the capital program that our program for 2024 already reflects the reality of where natural gas pricing sits today. So not surprisingly, we're driving capital allocation to our 3 kind of black oil basins, Eagle Ford, Bakken and the Permian. Thus, a combination play essentially like Oklahoma is struggling obviously to compete for capital because of where we are on the commodity cycle, right?

Speaker 1

It doesn't mean that it won't compete in the future. But today, because of the multi basin model, we're able to take a hard look. I may not think Mike said, it's value over volumes. And even though we're taking a little bit of a downtick on OEBs, that's by design. We're driven by returns and value optimization, which is making our oil program very efficient in 2024 and very much our focus given where gas pricing sits today in North America.

Speaker 9

Thanks team.

Operator

Our next question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning guys. This is actually Kalei on for Doug. So I appreciate you taking the question. My first question goes to inventory depth. You guys obviously continue to show a very consistent capital program with the emphasis on harvesting those mature assets.

Speaker 9

So hoping that you can provide a view on how you see the resource depth evolving on each one of your 4 U. S. Plays. And when you think about that program as you work into the future, do you ever see the Anadarko Permian carrying load of that program? And if so, when do you see it?

Speaker 1

Okay. There's a lot in there, so let me maybe try to unpack a little bit of that. First of all, maybe just let me deal with the inventory question. Our team has been very successful at replacing inventory over the last 5 years. And there are several ways that we're able to do that.

Speaker 1

One is organic enhancement and that can include everything from cost reductions in places where we operate, extending laterals, refrac and redevelopment work like we have ongoing in places like the Eagle Ford. So, that's helpful. We do small bolt ons and even trades. One of the reasons that we're now having a primarily 2 mile plus program in Delaware is because of all the good work around small acquisition, small trades there to allow us to get a more contiguous kind of position there. And then we just talked about the migration of the Delaware I'm sorry, the Texas Delaware play from kind of exploration into the development program.

Speaker 1

And then finally, there is large scale larger scale M and A like we do with Incyte. We've got these 4 avenues to continue to replenish. And in some cycles, you lean on one more than another, but typically, you need to see all 4 of those to have a sustainable replenishment model. And that's really what we've been able to prosecute over the last 5 years and hold that 10 plus decade plus of inventory relatively constant over that period of time. So you should expect us to use that same playbook going forward.

Speaker 1

I mean every year is not going to have large scale M and A, but certainly every year we're investing in things like organic enhancement. We're investing and still trying to progress some of our exploration plays. So those things are part and parcel of how we address inventory replenishment. At a basin level, we allocate capital at an enterprise level. So when we look at our inventory, we're looking at it from a holistic standpoint.

Speaker 1

And that's why, for instance, today, you see Permian starting to compete for more capital allocation. And so, when we think through that 10 plus year inventory, we think through it with a mindset of managing it at an enterprise level with basins coming in and out and receiving capital allocation based on the highest return and the best fit for us to continue to generate sustainable free cash flow generation.

Speaker 9

Thanks, Lee. I appreciate those comments. My quick follow-up just goes to EG. I'm just trying to get a sense of the rate ability for the perspective of commodity sensitivity. Not to be stupid about it, but let's say prices blew out to $30 per MMBtu in a very extreme scenario.

Speaker 9

I'm wondering if the earnings that you've shown here would exhibit the same linearity compared to the $10 to $15 scenario that you've laid out?

Speaker 1

Well, first of all, if it goes to $30 up, we're going to be very happy. But there is a bit of linearity there though. And one of the reasons that and I think I mentioned this in my opening comments, we provided some sensitivities at an enterprise level for all of the key products. So, you can see how 2 gs factors into the overall enterprise delivery. But certainly, the data that we've included in the deck, you should be able to test those sensitivities because it is a commercial framework.

Speaker 1

It's linked to global LNG pricing. So to the extent that we're delivering same level of volumes under the same cost structure, then that should be a pretty linear relationship with commodity pricing.

Speaker 9

I appreciate that. Thank you.

Speaker 1

I want to take that $30 as a prediction too, by the way.

Operator

Our next question comes from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

Speaker 10

Thank you. Good morning, guys. Good morning. Maybe this is for both me and Dane. You guys are changing a bit on the accounting in DG, shifting the transfer price.

Speaker 10

Just curious that with that other than say the shift on earning between the equity of Finney and fully owned operation. Does it in any way that changed the way how your decision making for that operation at all? That's the first question. The second question that I want to maybe go back to the consolidation. In your operating region, because of that, we are going to see some bigger payer.

Speaker 10

Do you foresee that going to change the landscape in terms of the service supply, in terms of that because of the consolidation, people become more rational. So you actually think that the pricing on the service will become better for the rest of the payer. So just curious then, I mean, what you view on the competitive landscape that may have changed if any due to that consolidation in the operating regions that you are in?

Speaker 1

Okay, great. Well, again, lots of unpack here, no follow-up. Let me maybe start off on the EEG question. I'll get Dane to jump in here and help me out. But you're spot on in that under the new contractual structure that we will be shifting some element of profitability from the equity companies over to the consolidated reporting.

Speaker 1

And in fact, we provided a very kind of detailed breakdown of that in our guidance in the deck just to hopefully eliminate any confusion or lack of clarity around this point. I mean, we know ET still is complex, but in some ways, this will bring more transparency by migrating more of that profitability into the consolidated entity. It will also limit kind of this timing dislocation that we also have between when we generate the income or earnings and when we receive, say, the dividend from an equity company because in the consolidated entities, obviously, that step does not occur. The only other thing you said, well, would this change anything around our decision making because of this new structure? And I would tell you the beauty we have in EG is that we are aligned from an equity percentage standpoint across the value chain.

Speaker 1

So there's really no impact to our decision making or how we think about investments across that value chain because we have alignment in every aspect of it from the upstream all the way through the LNG plan. I don't know, Dane, if I missed anything there.

Speaker 2

No, I agree completely, Lee. I would just add the guidance that we provided on Page 15 of the slide deck It's really sort of at a holistic EG business unit level $550,000,000 to $600,000,000 of EBITDA in 2024 assuming a $10 TTF and we gave price sensitivity, so you can dial that how you want. But I will say that's the best way to look at the business is the aggregate EBITDA generation. That's how we think about it. So it doesn't really to echo Lee's point, I don't think it drives our decision making which entity, whether it's consolidated or an equity affiliate, where that earning is coming from.

Speaker 2

We like it all. The other thing is that guidance is quite a bit stronger than what we previously provided for 2024 and now we've actually gone out 5 years and giving you a 5 year average. So this business is very strong and it's improving with the infill opportunities and bringing the same gas into the system. I mean, there's a lot of running room here, a lot that's not fully baked into the future model yet. So we're pretty bullish on EG.

Speaker 1

I think the last question you had was just around kind of the, I'll call it, the competitive landscape certainly in some of the basins where we operate today. Consolidation is absolutely a factor in all basins. It's probably in some ways, it becomes a bit more challenging in mature basins as the best operators tend to be aggregating the best assets and many of them have already done so and have a material position. The other challenge I think you have in those assets is it's the balancing act between PDP production versus forward inventory. And I would use the example, for instance, of Ensign where we really struck that balance.

Speaker 1

It brought cash flow and EBITDA with it, but it also brought 600 plus locations that was not only inventory life accretive to the Eagle Ford, but with inventory life accretive to the overall company. And those opportunities came in and competed immediately and continue to compete within our capital allocation today. And so, there are some unique challenges as you look at the more mature basins, but ultimately, the high quality assets will be run by the highest quality operators and we certainly put ourselves in that category. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Gruber with Citigroup.

Speaker 11

Yes, thanks for squeezing me in. And just have one question here. Lee, I think your M and A framework is certainly a very prudent approach. But obviously, there does seem to be an industry rush here to secure good rock and scale up. So the question we get from investors is, do you worry about the opportunity set for acquisitions shrinking and the quality of the opportunity set fading?

Speaker 11

And does that warrant a tweak to your MA strategy? I guess ultimately the question is, are you comfortable with the longer term outlook for adding quality resource, whether that's organic or inorganic within the construct of your M and A approach or and in the context of this hyper consolidation phase?

Speaker 1

Yes. Well, definitely, there we're in that phase today, but we see no upside to our shareholder to compromise our criteria today. Again, all of these transactions are very bespoke. They reflect the attributes of the counterpart. Most of those counterparties are searching for something.

Speaker 1

They're searching for scale. They're searching for resilience. They're searching for balance sheet health. I mean, they're searching for sustainability and inventory. So, they're trying to fill a void.

Speaker 1

And what that drives is this I won't necessarily refer to it as desperation, but it drives a different kind of behavior. For us, we're sitting with 10 plus years of inventory. So, we can be patient. We can be thoughtful. We can exercise the same level of discipline that we do in our organic business and be very successful.

Speaker 1

And we've demonstrated that. We've got a track record. I talked about those 4 levers we have available for inventory replenishment. Large scale M and A is just one of those levers that we can apply. And also keep in mind that even when transactions occur, the assets are still there.

Speaker 1

And so they're not going anywhere. And so there is still that aspect of ultimately the best assets will find their hands into being operated by the best operators.

Speaker 11

I appreciate the color. Thanks, Lee.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Scott.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Lee Tillman for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you for your interest in Marathon Oil, and I'd like to close by again thanking all of our dedicated employees and contractors for their commitment to safely and responsibly delivering the energy the world needs now more than ever. Cannot be prouder of what they achieve each and every day. Thank you and that concludes our call.

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Earnings Conference Call
Marathon Oil Q4 2023
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