Arcutis Biotherapeutics Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 27, 2024

There are 11 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Arcutis Biotherapeutics 2023 4th Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to Derek Cole, Arcutis Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Andrew. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to review 2023 financial results and a business update. Slides for today's call are available on the Investors section of the Arcutis website. On the call today, we have Frank Watanabe, President and CEO Patrick Burnett, Chief Medical Officer Todd Edwards, Chief Commercial Officer and John Smither, Chief Financial Officer. I'd remind everyone that we will be making forward looking statements during this call.

Speaker 1

These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties and our actual results may differ. We encourage you to review all the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including descriptions of our business and risk factors. With that, let me hand the call over to Frank.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Derek. I'm now on Slide 5 of

Speaker 1

the deck. We've had a

Speaker 2

lot of really exciting progress since we last spoke for our Q3 earnings call and I couldn't be more pleased with the ArQutis team and our execution in the quarter nor more excited about the foundation these results lay down for progress in 2024. We continue to see growing momentum in the Zareve cream launch in psoriasis as healthcare providers and their patients see how it addresses real needs in their treatment of psoriasis. We've now generated over 165,000 prescriptions and over 10,700 unique prescribers to launch to date as our product delivers positive clinical experience for HCPs and their patients. We continue to make significant progress on our gross to net each quarter with improvement in Q4 over Q3 of a similar magnitude as seen Q3 over Q2, taking us to an average in the mid-60s for the 4th quarter. The solid growth in prescriptions coupled with continued gross to net improvements drove strong revenue growth in Q4, both versus Q3 and year over year with 4th quarter net revenue of $13,500,000 Coming on top of our progress with Zareve cream and psoriasis, we also received approval for Zareve Foam for seborrheic dermatitis in December and launched in late January.

Speaker 2

I don't think I've ever seen comparable levels of excitement amongst patients and dermatologists as what we're hearing about Zareve Foam. We also continue to execute against our clinical and regulatory milestones with a steady flow of successes this past quarter. Patrick will go into little more details in a minute, but during the quarter, the FDA accepted our supplemental NDA for atopic dermatitis down to the age of 6 and assigned a target date of July 7, 2024, potentially expanding our portfolio even further. We also released very exciting interim long term data from our open label study in AD that demonstrated efficacy continues to improve with long term use out to 52 weeks along with favorable long term safety and dependable disease control. We've seen robust, consistent and predictable efficacy across all targeted indications, including psoriasis, seb derm and atopic dermatitis in each of their respective pivotal trials.

Speaker 2

In addition, in October 2023, the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office awarded the company a new formulation patent that covers a means for inhibiting refumalized crystal growth that is not limited to hexylene glycol. And in November 2023, the company was also awarded a new method of treatment patent covering a topical refluomolized formulation with an extended half life. Both patents do not expire until 2,037.

Speaker 2

And in October, we completed a secondary offering that raised $102,000,000 putting us in a strong financial position to continue investing in the ongoing launches in PlaxRise and sebderm as well as the potential atopic dermatitis launch later this year, while continuing to development the development of our pipeline. Moving on to Slide 6, a major reason why we're so excited for this year is that we are in the midst of a very significant expansion of the opportunity for topical reflumilast, which we expect will translate into a substantial acceleration of our revenue trajectory. You've seen this before, but from the initial approval for psoriasis, the total addressable market for ZAREID could grow around tenfold this year alone to over 15,000,000 patients in the United States. We have the right commercial team in place for success and we have an excellent plan to execute against these opportunities. With that, let me turn it over to Todd to provide some further commentary around the NYSERIEV cream launch in psoriasis and update you on how the foam is progressing in seb derm.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Frank. And I'm very enthusiastic about our growing commercial portfolio, recent progress and the tremendous opportunity I see ahead. Moving to Slide 8. The ZERRY's psoriasis launch is accelerating and our execution strategies are showing signals that we are able to push the launch trajectory in psoriasis. These efforts also lay a solid foundation for sustained growth in sev derm and potential further growth in new indications upon approval.

Speaker 3

The NRx and TRx prescription volume is growing every quarter and Zareeb has over 165,000 TRxs launched to date. Q4 2023 TRxs were up 26% compared to Q3 2023 and over 2 90% compared to the Q4 of 2022. We're starting to see a preference for Zareve relative to the non steroidal competitor as evidenced by our steady gains in market share and 8 in 10 ZEREB writers are increasing their utilization of ZEREB. The new pediatric label expansion down to 6 years of age incrementally expands our opportunity for growth and further strengthens Zari's safety and tolerability profile. Refills continue to be an important driver of long term growth.

Speaker 3

The number of refills in the 4th quarter increased by around 39% versus the 3rd quarter and now constitute more than 1 in 3 prescriptions, which is in line with what we want and expect to see given the positive experience patients have with ZAREV. I am now on Slide 9. There are multiple important dermatology conferences in January. After spending time with dermatologists, MPs and PAs currently using ZEREB CREAM, the feedback I received about the product is exceptional. These prescribers spoke to me about their patients being delighted by the results achieved with ZAREIT.

Speaker 3

The prescriber feedback is clear that there are some distinct attributes of ZAREIT Cream that make it attractive. The ability to be used anywhere, once daily dosing, compelling efficacy data, favorable tolerability profile, safety and appropriateness for any psoriasis patient. And these attributes make Zareep Cream an attractive treatment for patients with different types of needs. The patient who is concerned about steroids, the patient who has been cycling to various topicals or ones that are exploring different treatments to find that works for them long term or to manage flares. We know that psoriasis patients have differing needs depending on where they are in their journey and see that ZAREIT Cream can really be a solution for most of these patients.

Speaker 3

I'm now on Slide 10. The team has been focused on 3 pillars of commercial success for sustaining CERE CREAM growth in psoriasis. Firstly, driving HCP awareness and use. The subscriber base is growing steadily, with now over 10,700 unique prescribers since launch. Our experienced field sales team is focused on high volume geographies.

Speaker 3

The field team continues to deliver broad efficacy messaging to move physicians along the adoption curve from initial trial in specific regions of the body to expanded use for patients who have psoriasis plaques across a large body surface area. Secondly, patient engagement and positive use experience. Refill volume has increased to 38% of total volume as XEREIT patient awareness continues to improve. And finally, the broad high quality access in commercial and anticipated Medicare Medicaid coverage creates the opportunity for more patients to experience CEREIT. ZAREIT's differentiated pricing and access strategy continues to resonate with payers, with over 132,000,000 commercial lives having access to Zarete Preem.

Speaker 3

The Arcutis team successfully secured coverage for Zarete Preem with all 3 large PBMs in the U. S. Within 12 months of the launch. And we anticipate further improvements in ZERITE commercial coverage throughout 2024. And PAs and step edits are typical for branded products in dermatology.

Speaker 3

And for Zareeb, this process is now well understood by pharmacies and dermatology offices. We are seeing very encouraging trends in percentage of cream prescriptions being covered by insurers, with a clear opportunity to expand on this by working with contracted pharmacy partners. From my experience, I am confident in our ability to continue to improve our gross to net. We saw very good improvements in gross to net during Q4 and expect that progress to continue in subsequent quarters. With us approaching our target gross to net in the 50s for the psoriasis indication by the second half of twenty twenty four.

Speaker 3

One very large incremental opportunity to accelerate prescription growth is expansion into Medicaid and Medicare, which we expect to begin as early as 2024. Roughly a third of psoriasis patients and nearly half of sebderm and atopic dermatitis patients are on Medicare or Medicaid. So this is a very important opportunity for us. Zareya's pricing falls below the CMS specialty threshold tier, unlike other branded topicals. So we are well positioned to access these segments.

Speaker 3

Now moving on to Slide 11. We are seeing a tremendous early response to the launch of ZERIFOAM, the first drug approved for seborrheumatitis with a new mechanism of action in over 2 decades. As you have likely seen in IQVIA data, we have a strong start to the launch with a very positive launch trajectory. The first approved treatment unconstrained by severity, duration and location. Xarefoam is different than anything else derms or patients have seen for this disease.

Speaker 3

With treatment success of 8 10 patients in our pivotal trial with over half of these patients completely clear in just 8 weeks. Significant impact on itch, most bothersome symptom of this disease with improvements seen as early as 48 hours. Simple, once daily leave in application that's much more convenient than any other option. And taken together, we believe XERIFOIM can be the new standard of care in managing ZEDERM. I'm now on Slide 12.

Speaker 3

With the product profile offering rapid, dramatic disease clearance and significant reduction in itch with a simple single treatment, HCPs of patients are very enthusiastic about the availability of XERIFOAM. 81% of survey prescribers view this Zuri phone profile as very compelling or compelling. They also recognize the attributes of applicability to any part of the body. The uniqueness of the vehicle and critical efficacy needs for this patient type rapid response in itch and erythema, which then helps to reduce the number of treatments in the regimen and potentially leads to improved compliance. On Slide 13, as mentioned previously, we have secured access with the 3 national PBMs who recognize Zari Foam as a line extension under the Zareef Cream contracts.

Speaker 3

This has translated into an increased volume of covered prescriptions early in the launch period with covered prescriptions already near 50% of total volume. We continue to work with the downstream health plans, seeing them on board and this accelerated coverage will translate into a more rapid improvement in gross to net compared to what we saw with the cream launch or what is tangible with the new derm products. Finally, all the key EMRs already have ZareFilm available for electronic prescribing. Moving to Slide 14, building on the strength label and product profile, we are confident that we have ingredients in place for successful launch of XERIFOAM and ZEDERM. With relationships already built with dermatologists, a field team trained on the value proposition and ready to promote and educate, contracted pharmacies in place, familiarity with the co pay card and processes that go with the product and access of PBM to ensure patients get the drug.

Speaker 3

I look forward to updating you further on our commercial progress throughout the year. We are also looking forward to upcoming launches in new indications. And so I will hand it over to Patrick to cover that.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Todd. I'm extremely proud of the team's performance in delivering on the promise of topical clean last in the dermatology community and hitting all our timelines with regard to our regulatory milestones. On Slide 16, I'm going to cover these according to indication with psoriasis first. Here we have approval down to the age of 6 after we've expanded the indication and the opportunity in pediatrics to reach the 2 to 5 year olds will be the subject of a future FDA review. Next for sebderm, with our approval in December and the recent launch, physician excitement is palpable and the feedback at medical congresses has been very positive.

Speaker 4

The profile here is unprecedented efficacy with a once a day foam in a market as big as psoriasis with no innovation in decades and no branded competition. So moving on to atopic dermatitis, as Frank mentioned, the FDA accepted our supplemental NDA for rafunilast cream as a potential treatment for atopic dermatitis for patients down to the age of 6, and they assigned a PDUFA action date of July 7 this year. And finally, we're also expecting to submit another sNDA with the FDA for ZERIFOAM in scalp and body psoriasis in the second half of twenty twenty four. On Slide 17, I want to highlight some recently released pooled data from our Phase 3 AD studies, Integument 1 and 2. It's quite notable and highly unusual that over 90% of patients saw improvement in their symptoms in just 4 weeks and nearly 70% seeing at least a 50% improvement.

Speaker 4

Looking at the more demanding EASI-seventy five hurdle, almost 45% of patients achieved this large improvement at week 4. And encouragingly, in the long term study, which we've released but aren't showing here, at the end of 56 weeks, 2 out of 3 patients had achieved a 75 percent improvement. It's really exciting to see where we have a high proportion of patients responding early and then seeing an increased benefit over time with long term treatment. And in that long term study, we also looked for the first time at our ability to control the disease with a less frequent maintenance regimen, where patients were switched to twice weekly treatment if they reached complete clearance. We're really happy about the response there.

Speaker 4

This regimen fits nicely with the current clinical practice and these data have really resonated with dermatologists. We're excited about the Rifumas cream clinical profile for AD and the significant opportunity in this large and growing market. Dynamics here at AD are favorable towards rapid adoption and share some of the positive tailwinds as sebderm. In pediatric patients especially, here in AD, there's a propensity to adopt non steroidals higher than in the psoriasis patient population, and that's largely driven by parents' avoidance of steroids. So moving on to Slide 18, I want to highlight the itch response across our portfolio of products.

Speaker 4

So here we're showing WINRS or worst itch numeric rating scale results of our Phase 3 studies. These are pooled results for psoriasis dermis and the AD integument studies, and these are individual study results for stratum and erector. It's just a primary symptom for these conditions and a key driver of our quality of life impact. So, Grieve Cream and Foam at 0.3% and topical riflunilast 0.15 percent cream for AD provided consistent and rapid improvements in itch across psoriasis, sebderm and AD respectively, with improvements as early as 24 to 48 hours as compared with vehicle treated patients. This includes scalp psoriasis in the Erector study, which is particularly difficult to control and only 4 weeks of treatment in the entanglement studies.

Speaker 4

Across indications, we have a significant proportion of patients achieving an itch free state. And with that, I'll pass it over to John.

Speaker 2

Operator, can you hear me? This is Frank.

Operator

Yes, I can hear you now.

Speaker 2

While we're working on John, I'll take over for him for just a minute. So if you're listening, so I'm on Slide 20. So we achieved $29,200,000 in net product revenue for Zari for the full year 2023 with $13,500,000 of that in Q4, reflecting a 67% growth from Q3 to Q4, which comes on top of the approximately 70% sequential growth we saw from Q2 to Q3. This was driven by substantial growth gross to net, excuse me, percentage improvement down to the mid-60s and the team's success in pulling through covered prescriptions. We also saw healthy prescription growth in the quarter.

Speaker 2

So looking forward to 2024, we expect continued prescription growth and gross to net improvements for XERIEV CRIMINAL psoriasis and continued prescription momentum and GTN improvements for XERIEF Foam. Although there will likely be a temporary erosion in psoriasis gross to net improvements in Q1 'twenty four versus Q4 2023 due to the typical deductible resets and patients changing their coverage that always occurs at the beginning of the year. Turning to Slide 21, you can see the strong performance in the 4th quarter with net product revenues for the quarter of $13,500,000 dollars up over $10,000,000 from Q4 of 2022. R and D expenses for the 4th quarter were $23,800,000 which is down significantly from Q4 'twenty 2 due to continued decrease of development costs on topical formalized programs. And recall that our R and D expense includes research, operations and medical affairs spend.

Speaker 2

On Slide 22, looking at full year, full year total revenues of $60,000,000 with 29 point $2,000,000 in net product revenues and $30,000,000 in other revenues related to the upfront payment in connection with the Huadong collaboration and licensing agreement we received in Q3. R and D expenses for full year were $111,000,000 which is down $70,000,000 approximately due to the one time $30,000,000 fee associated with the Ducentis acquisition in 2022, winding down of our major reflumilast Phase 3 studies and lower pre commercial production. We expect full year 2024 R and D expense to decline meaningfully versus full year 'twenty three as we continue completing the few remaining Phase 3 studies, continue with regulatory filings, reduce our pre launch production costs and maintain our medical affairs activity to support the launches. SG and A expenses for the year were $185,000,000 dollars primarily due to higher commercialization expenses year over year, driven by continuing investments in Zarif cream and preparing for the ongoing launch of Zarif foam and the potential upcoming launch in atopic dermatitis if approved. As we head into 2024, we expect SG and A to increase over 2023, which aligns with the investment behind our Sedderm launch and preparations for the atopic dermatitis launch, including our previously announced incremental expansion in sales force.

Speaker 2

We will continue to focus on appropriate investments to support our commercial activities. Launching drugs properly requires substantial investments in staff and promotional investment and having multiple launches in a short period of time really magnifies these resource demands. It's important to note that we have made concerted efforts to adjust our operating expenses to reflect our transition from being exclusively a pre commercial company to a commercial enterprise and ensuring we invest appropriately in current launches and if approved ensuring the same for our future launches. We don't want to be in of underinvesting and harming the trajectory for the ongoing launches in psoriasis and sebderm or future launches if approved. Earlier in the year, we undertook a reorganization and reprioritization of non commercial efforts to align with our commercial execution focus in 2024, which will result in aggregate approximately $50,000,000 of reduced expenses over the next 2 years as compared to previous internal forecasts.

Speaker 2

You can expect us to continue to focus on cash burn as we look for opportunities to maximize our OpEx while making continued progress on maximizing the ZERIB opportunity across multiple unique indications. A top priority for our team is being good stewards of the investor capital entrusted to us, and we believe we have demonstrated an excellent track record thus far. We have made appropriate levels of investment that established our pipeline, achieved 9 positive Phase III clinical trials and now 2 FDA approvals with the 3rd potentially coming mid year, while launching 2 products to date and if approved another in the second half of twenty twenty four and a 4th in 2025. On Slide 23, our final slide on the balance sheet, we had cash and marketable securities of $272,800,000 as of December 31. As I mentioned on previous slide, our current capital enables us to continue to invest appropriately in commercial initiatives.

Speaker 2

We also remain confident about concluding an out licensing deal in Japan to bring in additional non dilutive capital, which would further extend runway and largely address the capital requirement covenant with SLR. Additionally, we are actively pursuing a primary care partnership and are seeking and seeing early interest from our efforts there. So that's it for our comments today. If I step back for a minute, we founded Arcutis with a vision of bringing meaningful innovation to the medical dermatology space, especially the topical space. And with our 2nd launch in less than 18 months, I'm proud that our team is making that vision a reality and in the process is helping a growing number of people suffering from dermatologic conditions.

Speaker 2

As we continue to execute on the psoriasis and seb derm launches and hopefully adding the atopic dermatitis launch later this year, we look forward to helping millions of people, allowing us to create additional shareholder value. We are confident that 2024 will be a transformational year for Acuitas. And with that, we will open it up for Q and A.

Operator

Thank And our first question comes

Speaker 2

from Tyler Van Buren with TD Cowen. Your line is now open.

Speaker 3

All right. I think that's me. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. So the subderm prescriptions for XERIFOIM have gone vertical very early in the launch and have reached levels that XERIF cream and BATAMA took significant longer significant longer to reach.

Speaker 3

So I understand that having coverage from day 1 is a huge benefit and there's not a direct competitor, but what else would you attribute the success to early on? And do you think Zuri Foam could ultimately end up being significantly larger than the cream?

Speaker 2

Yes, I think maybe Todd, if you could take that and then Patrick see if you have any additional comments after Todd's comment from a commercial standpoint.

Speaker 3

Yes, thank you, Frank. And yes, as mentioned, we're very pleased with the uptake of ZERIFOAM. And I mean, with the weekly demand trends, I'd say it's too early to comment on how much of that is coming from warehouse of patients. But I would say that one big driver of this initial uptake is just that, that there's a it's a ready pool of patients that are out there. And these patients have been waiting for Zrefoam.

Speaker 3

They're waiting for a more convenient, more effective treatment. And so I think that that's been driving this. But we expect continued strong growth of the product, but I just caution that a linear progression based on the rate trend is probably overly optimistic. But I think that there's a long runway for Zuri Foam and we're looking forward to continuing to grow this product.

Speaker 2

Yes. Any additional medical parts? Yes. Go ahead.

Speaker 4

Yes. I think just kind of adding the perspective of how this might fit into practice for dermatologists. Seborrheic dermatitis patients can be a challenging patient type in the dermatology practice just because you've had them in your practice for 10, 15 years, sometimes we know that there's a very long runway for patients before they actually get to a diagnosis. And oftentimes they've tried everything that's out there. And in this space where we haven't really had any innovation for 10, 20 years, remember this is the first new mechanism of action for a prescription topical in over 2 decades.

Speaker 4

I think there really is a lot of interest in having a new therapy and that translates into a level of frustration for the dermatologist that was kind of pent up prior to this because when a patient would come back in, they just had nothing to offer them that wasn't a topical antifungal or a topical corticosteroid. So I think that this is simply a component of solving an unmet need where there are patients who are dissatisfied with the treatment and healthcare providers who haven't really had anything new to offer. And we've heard that in anticipation of the approval and launch for the 2 or 3 years while we were running our Phase 3 studies, looking for the FDA to approve the drug, that there was a high level of anticipation

Speaker 2

for this for those reasons.

Operator

Thank you. One moment please for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Oi Ihir with Mizuho.

Speaker 5

Hey, guys. Yes, thanks for taking my question. So just on the launch, the SEP derm launch, could you you speak of warehousing effect. Are you sort of suggesting primarily that these are kind of patients who have limited options? And I guess, are you seeing what kind of patients are you seeing generally?

Speaker 5

Are they do they tend to be more on the severe side or the mild side? And could you sort of just maybe provide some of the demographics a little bit if you have such data? Yes, so that's my first question. I'll follow-up with a second question. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Uli, I think that the point we're trying to make is, think about it, it's been over 20 years since there was a truly new drug for seborrheic dermatitis. And so there is a very large pool of patients as Patrick or Todd mentioned, excuse me, who have been eagerly awaiting Zareefone's availability. And I think some of the very early demand is probably these patients who have been, as Patrick mentioned, have been cycling for 3 years and they've been just sitting in the office and now all of a sudden the doctor has a new option and they're going to put them on Zareefoam. So we don't we think that there is this pool of ready made patients that is helping the early launch, but we want to make sure that folks don't think that that pool will exist forever with this constant stream of very large patients.

Speaker 2

Having said that, our research suggests that dermatologists see about 75 seb derm patients a month. So it's a very large population of patients, which should sustain long term growth for us. In terms of your question around the demographics, I think it's really too early for us to have any data on that. We'll be looking at adoption and where doctors are using it as we get farther into the launch and we'll be able to share some of those data in the future. But at this point in the game, we don't have any data on that yet.

Speaker 5

Okay. And maybe even if you may help us understand a little bit. So you during the earlier call, the launch call, you indicated there were scripts that were waiting at the pharmacies. Are you still seeing significant number of scripts that have not been filled or shipped to consumers? Or at this point, these scripts, they come in and they are, I guess, readily shipped?

Speaker 5

Just wondering if there's a large delta. And maybe along that line, could you kind of also help us understand in your Zareeb Direct program, is there any differences between the cream and the foam and in terms of getting it processed? And if there's any, yes, just wanted a little more clarity on that. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure. Yes, sure. Todd, can you take those 2?

Speaker 3

Yes, absolutely. As mentioned, prior to the commercial launch, there was a number of prescriptions that were sitting at the pharmacy, but those prescriptions have all been filled and distributed to the patient. So we don't see what I'll call it warehouse prescription sitting currently at the pharmacy today. And relative to our Zareeb Direct program, I think this is a big strategic advantage for us is that the program is identical. It's the same program for Zareeb cream and psoriasis or for XERIE foam and separate dermatitis.

Speaker 3

And that creates a great efficiency for the dermatology offices given that 2 unique products for 2 distinct patient populations, psoriasis and seb derm, but one process in fulfilling that prescription. And so that is a common process across both products.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment please for our next question comes from the line of Chris Shibutani with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 3

Hi, thanks for taking our question. This is Steven on for Chris. One on the subderm launch, curious if we should expect any inventory or channel stocking effects in the Q1? And then as far as the commercial team goes, do you believe the team is currently right sized for the psoriasis and subderm opportunities? And if we should anticipate any changes ahead of atopic derm?

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. John, do you want to maybe take the channel question and then Todd, could you address the team?

Speaker 6

Yes. With respect to Q1, no, we're not anticipating any channel buildup with respect to Q1.

Speaker 3

Yes. And then I'll question relative to being right sized, especially for potential atopic dermatitis launch. In anticipation of that launch, we will expand our field sales organization. Today, roughly, we have around 100 field sales individuals within that team and we'll likely expand that by approximately another 50 sales representatives to make certain that we can get the breadth and depth of prescribing across the two products that are approved today and potentially the atopic dermatitis products. So we will be expanding and that will be initiated shortly.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. One moment please for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Seamus Fernandez with Guggenheim Securities.

Speaker 7

Hi, this is Colleen on for Seamus. Thanks for taking our question and congrats on the quarter. So we're seeing around 6,000 scripts per week for Zareeb over the past few weeks. So as a conservative estimate, if we annualize those 6,000 scripts for 48 weeks and assume a 60% gross net, by our math that gives us a little under $100,000,000 for Zuvi sales. Are we thinking about this the right way for a conservative minimum for 2024, which also isn't taking the atopic dermatitis launch into account?

Speaker 7

Or are there other factors we should be considering for the year? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think I'll let John answer that one.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Frank.

Speaker 6

Specifically, we're not giving revenue guidance. And that the 6,000 number I believe you quoted is both cream and foam. As Todd had mentioned, we're seeing early signs of strong seb derm. We're seeing improvement around psoriasis. We're in the early part of the launch.

Speaker 6

So I think we're standing back and thoughtfully and looking at how that launch is going. We're quite enthusiastic about how the year will turn out, but we're not giving specific guidance on revenue. As it relates to gross to net, just as a reminder, we exited 2023 essentially in the mid-60s and there is a reset that happens in Q1 as a result of folks deductible reset and as folks also changed their medical plans. So you'll see that probably tick up for psoriasis and seb derm, but we're confident as the year progresses that gross to net will continue to improve toward the end of 2024. And I believe in our script, we mentioned our target is in the 50s.

Speaker 4

Great.

Operator

Thank you. One moment please for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Serge Belanger with Needham.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking our questions and congrats on the progress. I guess a question for Todd related to gross to net. If you reiterated your target to be in the mid-50s by the end of the year for, I believe it was Zoriv cream in psoriasis. Just curious how we should think about the other products, especially Zoriv Foam and what will happen to overall gross to nets once the AD indication comes on board and the managed care component also expands?

Speaker 8

Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thank you. As mentioned just by John earlier that we are anticipating to second half of the year to achieve that 50s for the gross to net. That is for the indication of psoriasis. It's too early to comment on XERIFOEM for seborrheumatitis.

Speaker 3

I think the one signal that I mentioned earlier was relative to the covered scripts approaching 50% now of the total volume. And then relative to atopic dermatitis, just as a reminder, these are 3 unique and distinct products have separate NDCs. So therefore, they'll have separate unique gross to nets. But relative to the launch, potential launch in atopic dermatitis, the PBMs similar to what happened with Cerefone will treat the AD launch as a line extension, which will be able to support rapid uptake of covered prescriptions at launch for the atopic dermatitis product.

Operator

Thank you. One moment please for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Vikram Parohit with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking our questions. We had 2, 1 on seb derm and 1 on AD. So for seb derm, could you remind us how many cans of product you expect patients on the foam to work through annually, understanding it's still pretty early in the launch. And are there any interesting observations you're picking up from the initial phase of this launch on which areas of the body patients are using the product in, how much they're using and whether they're using it either as monotherapy or as a combination agent?

Speaker 9

And then on AD, would just be curious what your latest thinking is on where ZERIEV cream could fit in if approved versus other branded topicals that are or maybe on the market by the time ZERIEV launches? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure. Yes. Todd, you want to maybe take Vikram's questions?

Speaker 3

Yes. For the first question relative to the anticipated number of units. So we're anticipating that per patient on average per year, a patient would use 1 to 2 sebderm units. And then relative to, it's a little bit early to be able to tell, where patients are using this on the body. It will our label is very open relative to anywhere on the body or scalp.

Speaker 3

And then relative to monotherapy or not, once again, it's too early to tell specifically how dermatologists will likely be using this product. Although I will mention that there has been a lot of feedback from dermatologists relative to the convenience of this product being a monotherapy. And I think that's linked back to patients really yearning for something that's more convenient and not having to use 6 products on average per week. And so I think that this is one significant differentiator of the product to be able to use as a monotherapy highly effective product anywhere on body and scalp.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Sean Kim with Jones Trading.

Speaker 10

Yes. Hi, congratulations and thank you for taking my questions. I guess one question on Medicaid and Medicare expansion opportunity. So just curious what are some of the remaining gating steps to realize the expansion opportunity in the managed care? And my second question is about the patient awareness.

Speaker 10

You mentioned about 17% among patients aware of your branded product. Just curious to hear whether the demand for your products has been more on the doctors recommending their products to patients or vice versa patients kind of requesting the products? And your expectations going forward whether that awareness will

Speaker 2

further increase? Thank you. Todd, sorry, but I think those probably both are to you too.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thank you. And just clarification on the first question that was relative to the Medicaid expansion opportunity?

Speaker 2

Right. Medicaid and Medicare both.

Speaker 3

Medicaid and Medicare both. Fantastic. Yes. Relative to Medicare, we are currently in negotiations with a couple of the Part D Medicare plans and we're anticipating Medicare coverage at some of those Part D plans to be initiated in the second half of twenty twenty four. And relative to Medicaid, very similar timeframe.

Speaker 3

We're also actively talking and working with some of the state Medicaid plans. And we anticipate that those plans will come online near the middle of the year to the second half of the year for the Medicaid plans. And then on the other relative to patient awareness and also whether it's a physician or doctor driven, I think right now it's primarily for the most part doctor driven given just a new product to market. There has not been any new innovation within this space in 2 decades and the enthusiasm by providers around this product. So I think there's a tremendous push by physicians to their patients to take this product.

Speaker 3

However, I think over time that paradigm will shift to the patient as we continue to engage more directly with patients, create awareness to patients through a different mode of engagement opportunities.

Speaker 2

And Sean, maybe just to clarify for you and the other items, neither Medicare nor Medicaid are binary coverage decisions, right? So in Medicare, the majority of patients are covered by these Part D plans that are run by various PBMs or insurance companies. And so we'll get coverage with individual Medicare providers just as we have with commercial. It won't all come at once. We'll get a little bit here, a little bit there, a little bit in the other place.

Speaker 2

Then in the case of Medicaid, that's administered as a state program through block grants from the federal government. And so you have to negotiate with individual states for Medicaid coverage. And so again, that will be kind of a piecemeal coverage process, in fact, even more fragmented since you're dealing with such a large number of states.

Speaker 10

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you for the clarification.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions. Thank you for joining Arcutis today. This does conclude the call and you may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Q4 2023
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