Bank of Montreal Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 27, 2024

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to BMO Financial Group's Q1 2024 Earnings Release and Conference Call for February 27, 2024. Your host for today is Christine Liu. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and good morning. We'll begin the call with remarks from Daryl White, BMO's CEO followed by Tayfun Tuzun, our Chief Financial Officer and Piyush Agrawal, our Chief Risk Officer. Also present today to take questions are Ernie Johansen, Head of BMO North American Personal Business Banking Nadine Hirji, Head of BMO Commercial Banking Allen Tanenbaum, Head of BMO Capital Markets Delan Kamanga, Head of BMO Wealth Management and Daryl Hackett, BMO U. S. CEO.

Speaker 1

As noted on Slide 2, forward looking statements may be made during this call, which involve assumptions that have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from these statements. I would also remind listeners that the bank uses non GAAP measures to arrive at adjusted results. Management measures performance on a reported and adjusted basis and considers both to be useful in assessing underlying business performance. Daryl and Tayfun will be referring to adjusted results in their remarks unless otherwise noted.

Speaker 1

I will now turn the call over to Daryl.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Christine, and good morning, everyone. Today, we announced net income of $1,900,000,000 and adjusted earnings per share of $2.56 and against a challenging economic backdrop continued to demonstrate the strength and resilience of our diversified businesses. While the environment has constrained revenue growth in market sensitive businesses in the near term, the strength of our personal and commercial businesses further enhanced through the integration of strategic acquisitions, delivered revenue growth of 10% and pre provision pretax earnings growth of 3% from last year. We're executing against a simple, clear and well defined plan by optimizing our businesses and balance sheet, controlling costs and growing customer relationships to drive long term sustainable growth. We significantly strengthened our capital position with a CET1 ratio of 12.8%, up 30 basis points from last quarter and up 60 basis points since closing the Bank of the West transaction.

Speaker 2

Through disciplined balance sheet optimization, we've absorbed regulatory impacts and credit normalization and are well positioned to support client growth going forward. Given the outcomes of our actions, the resulting strong position and consistent internal capital generation, we've removed the DRIP discount as of this quarter. We're delivering against the expense management commitments we announced last year, including the full achievement of the US800 $1,000,000 run rate cost synergies at Bank of the West as of February 1, 1 year after closing and 20% higher than our initial plan. We're also on track to deliver the additional $400,000,000 of expense savings by the end of 2024 from the early actions put in place last year to enhance bank wide operational efficiency. The benefits of these programs are now accelerating.

Speaker 2

In fact, we've reduced expenses by 4% from last quarter and remain focused on returning to positive operating leverage beginning next quarter. Credit remains well managed. While impaired loss provisions have increased from very low levels and our consistent and disciplined risk management practices and the expertise within our lending teams and the quality of our client selection are resulting in good overall credit performance in line with our expectations. As we've been saying for several quarters, the near term growth outlook industry wide is muted by slowing GDP growth. We expect North American economic growth to remain subdued in the first half of this year before recovering towards the end of the year on the back of lower interest rates.

Speaker 2

While directionally similar, we do expect a meaningful difference in the landing between Canadian and U. S. Economies. In Canada, real GDP is expected to fall from 3.8% in 2022 to 0.8% in 2024. The U.

Speaker 2

S, while also slowing, is expected to show much better growth of 2.2% in 2024. We foresaw these trends emerging and we're dynamically managing our businesses to succeed and further strengthen our competitive advantage as the environment improves. In Canada, Personal and Business Banking continues to outperform with net new customer growth up 7% year over year. We continue to expand our suite of innovative products, including our new BMO Eclipse RISE Visa card that rewards customers for establishing good financial habits. We're already seeing great newcomers to Canada with our award winning digital offerings and services with new accounts up 35% from last year.

Speaker 2

In the U. S, we are executing against a very specific plan. We closed, converted and integrated the Bank of the West acquisition during a period of heightened uncertainty in the U. S. Banking market where several banks have been challenged to maintain liquidity, capital and customers.

Speaker 2

Since closing, our total U. S. Segment has consistently delivered quarterly PPPT above US1 $1,000,000,000 and contributing 45% to the bank's earnings. We've sustained this performance despite intensified deposit competition and decreased loan demand. We've overachieved our cost synergies and steadily improved our capital ratio in the U.

Speaker 2

S. Banking subsidiary, which is up over 80 basis points from a year ago. We're gaining momentum from our initial brand campaign, which when combined with targeted marketing, including becoming the official jersey sponsor of the LAFC, is driving new customers across our entire footprint all under the unified BMO brand. In our new Western markets, we've had over 250,000 customer conversations this quarter, providing valued and trusted advice. In California, new deposit relationships were 38% higher compared to last year as branch productivity continues to build towards our full potential.

Speaker 2

In North American Commercial Banking, while pressure on loan demand reflects lower utilizations as businesses wait to deploy capital at a lower cost, we continue to see strong momentum in customer acquisition across our integrated North American platform. The U. S. Is now contributing 60% of our total new client growth compared to 37% during the same period last year. And we've retained over 90% of Bank of the West clients, solid evidence that the BMO brand is strong and gaining traction.

Speaker 2

We're actively pursuing revenue synergies across our businesses with early indicators providing confidence that we will outperform the market when the environment becomes more constructive. In our Wealth business, continue to create new and innovative solutions in the ETF and mutual fund space to help investors achieve their financial goals. BMO Global Asset Management received top honors across several categories at the 2023 Canada Lipper Fund Awards and led all ETF providers at the 2023 Fund Data Awards. At BMO Insurance, investments in data and analytics are helping speed up and simplify the underwriting process, improving productivity for financial advisors and helping make life insurance coverage more accessible to Canadians. In BMO Capital Markets, client activity is gaining momentum after a muted start to the year.

Speaker 2

In Canada, we were number 1 in completed M and A and ECM this quarter and in the UK, BMO was recently designated as a gilt edged market maker, a natural extension of our global rates business. We're driving real financial progress for our clients and communities and continuing to deliver on our climate ambition. In partnership with the Canada Infrastructure Bank, we launched an innovative program to support the financing of energy retrofits for commercial building owners to deliver certified reductions to greenhouse gas emissions. It's just one example of how we're supporting our clients as their lead partner in the transition to a net zero world. BMO's leadership continues to be acknowledged once again being ranked among the most sustainable companies in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index.

Speaker 2

In summary, our Q1 results were impacted by revenues that fell short of expectations due in part to environmental pressure and other specific factors Tayfun will describe in detail. Meanwhile, our core fundamental pillars are strong. Capital is very strong and ahead of expectations, credit is within our range of expectations and expenses are tightly controlled and we're delivering on our efficiency commitments and driving clear results. We will continue to manage for optimal performance in this environment and also proactively improve our competitive positioning for outperformance as we move to the next stage of the business cycle. I will now turn it over to Tayfun.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Daryl. Good morning and thank you for joining us. My comments will start on Slide 8. First quarter reported EPS was $1.73 and net income was $1,300,000,000 Adjusting items are shown on Slide 38 and included the after tax impacts of the FDIC special assessment of $313,000,000 the net accounting loss on the sale of a portfolio of recreational vehicle loans related to balance sheet optimization of $136,000,000 and acquisition related impacts for amortization of intangibles and integration costs of $84,000,000 $57,000,000 respectively. The increase in reported net income from last year reflected the loss on fair value management actions related to the Bank of the West acquisition in the prior year.

Speaker 3

The remainder of my comments will focus on adjusted results. Adjusted EPS was $2.56 down from $3.06 last year and net income was $1,900,000,000 down 12%. Revenue increased 10% and PPPT increased 3% with good growth in Canadian P&C, the benefit of acquisitions and market related impacts in insurance from the transition to IFRS 17, partly offset by declines in capital markets and corporate services. Expenses increased 16%, primarily due to the impact from acquisitions, partly offset by the realization of cost synergies and efficiency initiatives. Total PCL was $627,000,000 including a $154,000,000 provision for performing loans compared with a total provision of $217,000,000 in the prior year.

Speaker 3

Piyush will speak to these in his remarks. Turning to Slide 9, there were some idiosyncratic items within the quarter that had outsized impacts on the total bank revenue growth. First, in Wealth Management, the transition to IFRS 17 resulted in variability from market related impacts. While quarterly results in the prior year were restated, they are not necessarily representative of our future earnings profile as hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of changes in interest rates on our earnings began to be implemented in the second half of the year. We expect our quarterly insurance revenue stream to be more consistent with the Q1 during the remainder of this year.

Speaker 3

2nd, capital markets revenues reflected a weaker environment and client activity to start the year. In addition, the impact of proposed legislation that eliminates the deductibility of certain Canadian dividends reduced trading revenue by approximately $50,000,000 from the prior year. Activity levels improved at the end of the quarter and if markets remain constructive, we expect to reach $625,000,000 to $650,000,000 of average quarterly PPPT in capital markets during the remainder of the year. 3rd, corporate services revenues decreased compared with the prior year and prior quarter. About 2 thirds of the decline from the prior year was related to the earnings on excess equity that we were holding ahead of the closing of Bank of the West.

Speaker 3

We are also holding more liquidity on our balance sheet, which always comes at a higher cost. In addition, market volatility during the quarter had a negative impact on the valuation of our hedge derivative positions that runs through our P and L. This item can cause some variability, but the cumulative impact converges to 0 over time. This was the largest contributor to lower sequential revenues as well as a lower benefit from purchase accounting market accretion. Barring unexpected market volatility, we expect our average quarterly revenues in corporate to be around negative $200,000,000 to 2 $25,000,000 for the remainder of the year.

Speaker 3

Moving to the balance sheet on Slide 10. Average loan growth was 16% year over year driven by Bank of the West and good growth in Canadian P&C and Capital Markets. The sale of the RV loan portfolio in the quarter reduced average loans by $4,800,000,000 and period end loans by $9,600,000,000 Excluding the impact of the sale and the wind down of the indirect auto portfolio, average loans were up 2% sequentially on a constant currency basis with growth in both business and government and consumer lending. Average customer deposits increased 19% year over year due to Bank of the West and higher balances in Canadian P and C and Capital Markets. Sequentially, period end deposits were up 2% on a constant currency basis.

Speaker 3

Turning to Slide 11. On an ex trading basis, net interest income was up 12% from the prior year and net interest margin was up 3 basis points driven by higher margins in our P and C businesses, partially offset by lower net interest income in corporate services. Net interest margin was down 6 basis points from last quarter, reflecting continued pressure from the overall competitive deposit environment and deposit migration, net of benefits from reinvestment at higher rates. The total bank margin was also impacted by lower net interest income related to net accretion of purchase accounting fair value marks and risk transfer transactions, including the sale of the RV loan portfolio. In Canadian P and C, NIM increased 3 basis points mainly due to favorable balance sheet mix, partly offset by lower deposit margins due to the continued migration to term deposits.

Speaker 3

In U. S. P and C, NIM remained flat as favorable changes in balance sheet mix were offset by lower deposit margins as customers migrate to higher cost deposits. During the remainder of the year, we expect relative stability in our overall margin as the benefit of reinvestment of equity and non maturity deposits at higher yields offsets pressures from higher deposit costs. Moving to Slide 12.

Speaker 3

Expenses increased 16% from the prior year, mainly due to the impact from acquisitions. The current quarter included an $84,000,000 benefit from the consolidation of certain U. S. Benefit plans. Sequentially, expenses were down 4%, mainly reflecting the higher realized Bank of the West cost synergies and additional operational efficiency savings.

Speaker 3

These more than offset the impact of stock based compensation for employees eligible to retire and seasonality of benefits that is recognized in the Q1 of each year, which had a combined impact of $280,000,000 As Daryl mentioned earlier, we have been very successful on delivering on our expense commitments. We now have achieved the full $800,000,000 in the Bank of the West run rate cost synergies per our commitments and we have been progressing well on the remaining enterprise operational efficiencies we announced last year. To date, we have realized $325,000,000 of the $400,000,000 run rate expense savings that we are targeting to achieve by the end of the fiscal year. Based on our current expectations, the first quarter should be a low point for revenues and a high point for expenses for this fiscal year. And therefore, we remain confident in our ability to deliver positive operating leverage starting the Q2 and for the full fiscal year.

Speaker 3

Turning to Slide 13, our capital position continues to strengthen with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 12.8%, up 30 basis points from the prior quarter, driven by internal capital generation, shares issued under the dividend reinvestment plan and the benefit from the sale of the RB loan portfolio. These were partially offset by the FDIC special assessment charge and higher source currency RWA reflecting higher market and operational risks and net asset quality changes. The combined impact of regulatory capital developments and adoption of IFRS 17 effective this first quarter did not have a significant impact on our capital position. Moving to the operating groups and starting on Slide 14. Canadian P&C delivered net income of $925,000,000 down 3% year over year.

Speaker 3

PPPT of $1,600,000,000 increased a strong 8%, offset by higher provisions for credit losses. Revenue of $2,800,000,000 was up 9% driven by growth in net interest income reflecting both solid balance growth and higher margins. Non interest revenue increased 6%, primarily due to the acquisition of Air Miles. Expenses were up 9%, reflecting the inclusion of Air Miles and higher technology costs and down 4% from the prior quarter driven by lower employee related costs and operational efficiencies. Loans were up 5% year over year with good growth across mortgages and commercial loans and increased 1% from the prior quarter.

Speaker 3

Deposits were up 11% year over year with retail deposits up 10% and commercial deposits up 12% and reflecting continued growth in term products. Deposits increased 2% sequentially. Moving to U. S. P and C on Slide 15, my comments here will speak to the U.

Speaker 3

S. Dollar performance. Net income was $475,000,000 down 4% from the prior year with PPPT growth of 19%, offset by higher provisions for loan losses. Sequentially, revenue was up 1% driven by an increase in net interest income on higher deposit balances. Expenses declined 4% quarter over quarter, reflecting benefits from expense management and our focus on operational efficiencies.

Speaker 3

Loans were up 48% from the prior year driven by Bank of the West. Excluding the impact of the RV loan portfolio sale, average loans were up 2% sequentially with growth across both mortgages and commercial loans. Deposits increased 45% year over year and 2% sequentially driven by strong growth in term and money market deposits. Moving to Slide 16, BMO Wealth Management net income was $241,000,000 up from $160,000,000 last year. Wealth and asset management net income of $188,000,000 decreased 7% from the prior year.

Speaker 3

Contributions from Bank of the West and growth in new client assets were more than offset by lower net interest income due to migration to term deposits and higher expenses. Insurance net income was $53,000,000 compared with a loss of $43,000,000 in the prior year, primarily due to market related impacts in the prior year, reflecting the transition to IFRS 17. Expenses were up 8%, mainly due to higher employee related costs, including impact of Bank of the West and were up 1% sequentially. Moving to Slide 17, BMO Capital Markets net income was $408,000,000 compared with $495,000,000 in the prior year, reflecting weakness in the market environment. Revenue in global markets was down 13%, reflecting lower trading revenue.

Speaker 3

Investments and corporate banking revenue was up 5% on higher underwriting and advisory fees. Expenses were up 1% driven by technology costs, partially offset by lower performance based compensation. Turning now to Slide 18. Corporate Services net loss was $316,000,000 compared with $180,000,000 in the prior quarter $114,000,000 in the prior year. The widening of the net loss was driven by the revenue items previously discussed, partially offset by lower expenses.

Speaker 3

To conclude, the banking environment is at a point in the cycle where the outlook for revenue growth is more constrained in the near term. In response, we are delivering on our committed expense savings to deliver PPPT growth and positive operating leverage. At the same time, we are focusing on investing for growth, allocating additional resources to areas where we have expanded our revenue opportunities through acquisitions and to businesses where we are capturing market share profitably to build continued shareholder value. We are cognizant that we need to execute with discipline and our track record in risk and expense management should be a strong proof point for such accountability. I will now turn it over to Piyush.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Tayfun, and good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 20, the total provision for credit losses was $627,000,000 or 38 basis points. Impaired provisions for the quarter were $473,000,000 or 29 basis points, up 4 basis points from prior quarter, reflecting the continued impact from tighter monetary policy. Credit performance remains well within our expectations and was driven by strong risk management discipline across the bank and the benefit from our risk mitigation actions over the last few years. Canadian retail impaired losses were $204,000,000 up $14,000,000 from prior quarter, and U.

Speaker 4

S. Retail impaired loan losses were $80,000,000 up $20,000,000 Consumer loan losses in both Canada and the U. S. Reflect higher delinquencies in credit cards and other personal loans, reflecting increases in customer insolvencies, which in Canada are now above pre pandemic levels. Also of note, the discontinued indirect auto business provisions are now reported in Corporate Services and have increased in line with industry trends.

Speaker 4

Canadian commercial impaired loan provisions were $34,000,000 down $8,000,000 from last quarter, and U. S. Commercial impaired provisions were $103,000,000 up $20,000,000 primarily due to higher losses in the transportation and retail trade sectors. Capital markets impaired losses were $11,000,000 flat to previous quarter. Moving to Slide 21.

Speaker 4

Performing provision for credit losses of $154,000,000 primarily reflected portfolio credit migration and model updates net of changes in export credit judgment. Negative credit migration, which began in the Q2 of last year, is not yet over, but we do expect it to slow or plateau during the remainder of the year. Also of note is an $87,000,000 release of performing allowance related to the RV loan sale. This release is outside of the 100 and $54,000,000 build and netted in the noninterest revenue line against the loss on the sale of the RV portfolio that Tayfun referenced in his remarks. We are comfortable that our total performing allowance for Q1 of $3,500,000,000 provides appropriate coverage of 55 basis points over our performing loans and 2.4x trailing 4 quarter impaired losses given the credit profile of our current portfolio and our forecast for impaired losses.

Speaker 4

Turning to Slide 22 on impaired loans and formations. Bank wide impaired formations slowed by $400,000,000 from prior quarter to $1,400,000,000 Gross impaired loans increased to $4,300,000,000 or 65 basis points with the increases coming primarily from health care and manufacturing. On Slide 23, we provide an overview of our business and government portfolio, which remains a key differentiator for the bank. The portfolio is well diversified across geographies and industries, highly secured and well structured. Throughout market cycles, we have maintained consistent and disciplined underwriting standards as evidenced by the portfolio quality and strong performance over time.

Speaker 4

Our expertise in workout practices consistently results in lower losses and impaired loans with a focus on helping clients return to performing status. As expected, inflation and monetary tightening are impacting businesses and resulting in negative migration. However, 54% of this portfolio continues to be investment grade with low impairments level of less than 1%. On Slide 24, we provide an overview of the Canadian mortgage portfolio that continues to perform very well. We've provided additional information on the impact of higher interest rates on customer payments.

Speaker 4

While higher rates are to impact borrowers at renewal or refinancing, our internal analytics indicate that customers have the capacity to absorb these higher payments. In fact, over $19,000,000,000 of mortgages have now renewed in this higher rate environment, and they continue to exhibit good payment performance. Additionally, our outreach to customers continues to be successful with many taking action, resulting in a significant reduction in mortgages that are in negative amortization by over $7,000,000,000 in this quarter alone. To conclude, we continue to expect that the higher level of interest rates and slowing economic activity will be reflected in somewhat higher impaired loss rates in the range of low 30 basis points for the year with some variability quarter to quarter. But given the quality and the diversification of our portfolio, our high allowance coverage and strong risk management capabilities, we remain well positioned to manage the current environment and emerging risks.

Speaker 4

With that, I will now turn the call back to the operator for the Q and A portion of this call. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take questions from the telephone lines. The first question is from Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning. I guess I had a question just around balance sheet positioning, maybe typhoon. One, talk to us around the U. S. P&C business.

Speaker 5

I look at the loan to deposit ratio, 94%. Everything that I hear from the U. S. Banks is significant focus on liquidity, lower loan to deposit ratios. So give us a perspective on how you are thinking about liquidity within USP and C, where that loan to deposit ratio should gravitate?

Speaker 5

And then the second question is, the from a capital and RWA optimization standpoint, how much more there to go? I mean, I understand banks are constantly optimizing for RWA. But from an investor standpoint, RWA optimization leads to hit to earnings and revenue. So just trying to understand the risk of earnings or revenue hit tied to these actions. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Ebrahim, and thank you for both questions. Let me actually start with the second one first. I understand why the question first references the earnings impact of these transactions, but we actually look at it differently. We look at this as not necessarily taking away from our revenues, but creating the potential for more revenue growth and for expanded relationship growth in all of our businesses, whether it applies to commercial or consumer because these create first of all, these are ROE accretive transactions. So in that sense, we are creating more room on our balance sheet, not to sacrifice growth, but actually to grow stronger and faster both in the U.

Speaker 3

S. And in Canada. So that's important. I think I highlighted last year that during the fiscal year, the impact of these transactions would be about $400,000,000 last year. This year, it will probably be a bit higher because we have more transactions.

Speaker 3

But the growth impact on our company of these transactions and the optimization of capital is very significant. On the U. S. Side, with respect to the balance sheet positioning, we feel actually very good both on the personal side as well as the commercial side with deposit growth. We have obviously Bank of the West gives us an extra oomph in terms of connecting with more customers and growing the deposit base, while also our fairly efficient treasury management platform gives our commercial business expanded opportunities in growing deposits.

Speaker 3

In an area where we have a bit more muted loan growth compared to our historical levels, we expect this will continue to build liquidity. We've always emphasized over the past year or so that we are positioned very well with respect to our competitors, both from a capital perspective as well as from a liquidity perspective, which gives us, I think, opportunities for market share growth. Ernie and Nadeem, I will invite you guys to comment on both questions.

Speaker 6

Sure. This is Nadeem. Talking about the capacity creation of the risk transfer transactions on a commercial standpoint is extremely important for us. Daryl and Tayfun both mentioned the subdued loan and demand environment, which does exist. Businesses are still cautious, wait and watch mode before making new capital investments or optimizing their balance sheet, reducing revolver utilization, especially in the working capital heavy businesses.

Speaker 6

But what I will say is that customer sentiment has improved this quarter versus last quarter, and I expect that trend to continue. And despite the environmental headwinds, mitigating this is our diversified portfolio and momentum in new client acquisition, including in our integrated treasury and payments platform in both countries. If you look at Canada, although we showed flat quarter over quarter loan growth, in the month of January point to point, we had strong momentum and that momentum has continued into Q2. In the U. S, we showed quarter over quarter loan growth just under 2%, which is at the higher end of our peer growth.

Speaker 6

And in both countries, our pipelines on loans and deposits has increased. So overall, the capacity creation is extremely welcomed on the commercial side and I believe positions us extremely well. And as we've done through past cycles, we are now in a strong position to accelerate as the environment rebounds and take share and this time it's off of an even bigger platform.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thank you for that. Just one very quick follow-up, Tayfun. I think you mentioned revenue in corporate segment negative 200 to 225 or 258. That's a pretty meaningful change from last year.

Speaker 5

If you don't mind, what do you think the net income or net loss contribution from Corp segment will be for the rest of the year? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Look, I mean, I think I gave you the revenue guidance, Ibrahim. Expenses are on the low end, as I've said before. We will give you some guidance for net income. But overall, I think the guidance on revenues should be a good level to forecast the net income piece as well. There is of course, it's just corporate revenues are difficult to analyze from outside.

Speaker 3

I tried to clarify it with these idiosyncratic items. I'll be happy to give more details on that as well. Purchase accounting accretion does have an impact overall. But on a year over year basis on revenues, the larger portion came from our earnings on equity in the Q1 of last year. That was almost a 2 thirds of the year over year change.

Speaker 3

And then there were some higher liquidity costs compared to last year's Q1. On a quarter over quarter basis, on net interest income in corporate, it was a combination of purchase accounting accretion change and then higher liquidity costs on net non interest revenues. The impact came from the market volatility impact on fair market values on a portion of our hedge portfolio, which always is sort of a related to volatility during a quarter. But over time, that converges back to 0. Some quarters are positive.

Speaker 3

Some quarters are negative. This quarter just happens to be a negative one. So our guidance on revenues is better for the rest of the year, barring any changes in market volatility.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Mani Grauman, Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning. Maybe following up on Ebrahim's question. Gail, I'm curious, if you look forward, would you say you'd be more cautious pulling the trigger on risk transfer transactions going forward considering where your capital ratio is and considering the more challenged revenue environment? Maybe it's an obvious answer, but I thought I'd pose it. Curious your thoughts on that.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Meny. The short answer is we feel like we're in a pretty good spot. You look at our CET1 ratio at 12.8 percent. It would be inconsistent if we said that we're removing the DRIP discount and at the same time we felt capital constrained.

Speaker 2

We don't feel capital constrained. We're very pleased with the execution of risk transfer transactions. It's put us in part in the position that we're in. It's helped us create the capacity for when the environment becomes more constructive. So as you know, we always look at these tools to optimize balance sheet performance.

Speaker 2

It's not just for risk mitigation, but it's for the creation of future opportunities as Tayfun summarized just now. But as I look out today, we feel pretty comfortable in the organic capital generation on our balance sheet.

Speaker 7

Thanks for that. And then maybe just a question for Piyush in terms of your guidance on the impaired loan PCL. Just wondering if you could provide a little more guidance in terms of timing when you expect to see what quarter you expect to see this peak? And if you could talk about your outlook for small business, especially from the impairments perspective. I think it's pretty clear what's happening on the consumer side in terms of the unsecured book of business.

Speaker 7

But what are you seeing on the small business side and where is that expected to go?

Speaker 4

Sure. Thanks, Meny. So two parts. Let me just first provide the broader impaired guidance. I think I've been guiding to low 30s.

Speaker 4

And so while we've seen the steady pickup as expected in the credit environment, I think that's going to continue. There will be variability intra quarter over the years. I would generally guide to say we expect a higher amount in the 1st two quarters. And if the rate cycle plays out as expected, it should start trading off by the end of the year. But again, the macro assumption there is how the rate cycle plays off.

Speaker 4

As you know, we are beginning we are seeing continued resiliency by the Canadian consumer when it comes to their when it comes to their mortgages. So that's been a very good book for us. But then on the unsecured side, the insolvencies that are showing up through the Canadian consumer is what's reflective of the impaired losses. And the challenge is that even if the rate cycle changes, it will take a couple of quarters for that transmission to flow through. I think the better piece I would say is, even though we don't expect Q2 rates to come down, it's very important for business government sentiment that if we are closer to rate cycle changes in Q3 and Q4, I think you'll start seeing upgrades.

Speaker 4

So the impaired loan losses, I'm sticking to our guidance of the low 30s. And so I'm very pleased with where we landed at 29 basis points, and I expect that's going to continue with some variability, like I said, in that range. On your small business question, it's a very small part of our overall book. There is stress in Canada. Again, if you look at business banking insolvencies coming out of COVID, there has been a huge pickup, but we continue to manage.

Speaker 4

There are certain sectors that are more stressed, but our risk underwriting criteria captures that. And so that's not a big mover of the dial in the overall impaired losses as you go forward.

Speaker 7

Thanks,

Speaker 3

Sant.

Operator

Thank you. The next question, Mario Mendonca, TD Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Good morning, Tayfun. I appreciate your comments on corporate. Can I ask you to look at it in a slightly different way, more on from a consolidated perspective on Page 15 of your supplement? When you talk about revenue associated with the hedging activity being weaker in the quarter or a drag this quarter, are you specifically referring to that other revenue line, the $44,000,000 adjusted this quarter? Is that what you're referring to?

Speaker 3

It is in non interest income, Mario. This item is not in net interest income. It's in non interest income. Yes. Sorry, that's what I meant.

Speaker 8

I mean, the non interest income of the revenue, like the I hate to say it, but like the other, other line is what I'm saying. Correct.

Speaker 3

Yes.

Speaker 8

And so that number can move around a fair bit. Can you talk about the dynamics that caused it to be a fair bit weaker, like much lower than previous quarters?

Speaker 3

Yes. So that will be impacted by the overall interest rate volatility in the markets. And as you know, the November through January period was relatively volatile. But there will be quarters when that number will be positive. This one was a negative quarter.

Speaker 3

Over the life of the portfolio, it will converge by definition to 0. So that's the reason why we called it an idiosyncratic item this quarter. It will not repeat in the same manner. And it's difficult for us to give you some guidance because we don't have a way to necessarily appropriately predict market volatility.

Speaker 8

And for clarity, there's no other line income statement or sort of revenue line that benefited? No. No. So that's just purely the effect. Okay.

Speaker 8

Correct. The next sort of similar type of question relates to the insurance investment result. I would have expected that line to be relatively steady unless there were credit charges or fair value charges in a quarter. So with that investment result looking so weak or negative $9,000,000 can you talk about what drove that?

Speaker 3

I assume you are comparing this quarter to last quarter? Yes, I

Speaker 8

am. Over the last few quarters.

Speaker 3

Yes. So this is purely related to the transition in our business from IFRS 4 to IFRS 17. And as the year went on in fiscal year 'twenty three, we started hedging our interest rate sensitivity in the second half of the year to prepare for the expected sensitivity levels under IFRS 17, which has caused an uptick in revenues in the 3rd and 4th quarters of last year. So now that we are firmly in the year, having made the transition, our outlook for that line is going to be fairly static going forward. You will not see a similar volatility and this quarter's level is more indicative for future revenues in our insurance line.

Speaker 8

So you'd expect to be close to 0 insurance investment income?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, I think overall insurance was around $80,000,000 or something like that. So that should be our guidance. That is our guidance for the next few quarters.

Speaker 8

I understand. Now, Daryl, maybe you quickly. I understand that when transactions are done, particularly in the U. S, it has the effect of hurting the ROE in the near term. And then as synergies are materialized and you're successful in your transaction, ROE in that business should improve.

Speaker 8

First of all, is that your view on how the U. S. ROE should migrate? And what is an acceptable ROE in that U. S.

Speaker 8

Business over time?

Speaker 2

Yes. So it's a good question, Mario. So the answer to your first question is yes. And we're currently, I would say, in the benefits that still are expected to come. Look, the conversion was by all measures world class.

Speaker 2

The marketing campaigns are in flight. The cost synergies we've talked about, we've exceeded the initial target. And by the way, I just want to clarify on that when we say we're run rating at $800,000,000 of synergies, that's as of February 1. That was not as of the average of the Q1. So there's more in that tank for all of you as the rest of the year goes on than there was in the first quarter.

Speaker 2

The capital, as you know, has been built since the acquisition and we've held on to the deposits quite nicely in an environment where deposits have fled the system. So do we expect the ROE to accrete from there? You bet we do, because we haven't yet realized the benefit of the revenue synergies that we've also talked about. And so another way to think about it is that we put out in the window for you all a $2,000,000,000 PPPT target for the bank the then known as Bank of the West asset that we bought. And we're standing by that because we see all of the various metrics that lead up to that as enablers coming in quite nicely as we speak.

Speaker 8

But a double digit ROE in the U. S. Then seems entirely reasonable over time.

Speaker 2

Yes, we've been there before and we'll be there again when we execute on this.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Gabriel Dechaine, National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Good morning. First question for Piyush. You talked about your expectation for impaired PCL, the trajectory. Maybe putting words in your mouth here, hopefully I'm not. But you're sounding like a little bit of an uptick here in Q2, but improving in the second half as rate cuts materialize.

Speaker 9

Correct me if I'm wrong there. I'm wondering about what about the performing provision if rate cuts keep getting pushed back for whatever reason. Is there any upward pressure on your performing provision? Like what's built in there? If you can dumb it down to that level, that would be great so that we know what to expect.

Speaker 4

Sure, Gabriel. So on the impaired PCL, look, in any quarter, I wouldn't take 1 quarter's number as the number is going to be variable quarter to quarter as things happen. So this credit cycle has come after a long time and it's come with a cheaper slope, so it's picked up very quickly, which is why you've seen the rapid buildup in impaired PCLs. And I think in Q2, my expectation is as this trend continues, it will be a tad bit up. I can't exactly point to what basis points.

Speaker 4

We also have, as you know, risk mitigation actions in place, so we benefit from those. And so depending on the name that's an impaired versus what's in our risk management risk mitigation, we will get some benefit. So yes, a tad bit up, but I think then down and I look at it over the year and over the year, like I said, low-30s, I feel very confident about at the moment. If something changes, obviously, we'll keep you posted. I think the performing PCL is a little bit of a longer story.

Speaker 4

Let me take a few seconds to just unpeel or explain the build in the context of what we did this quarter. So the first piece on the $154,000,000 build is, of course, the credit migration that causes the upward build. The second piece is really around a few model updates. And the model updates are as we completed the integration of Bank of the West models, we got a richness of data that allowed us or guided us in the expected losses of our own existing portfolios under different economic scenarios. We've been considering many of these variables through export credit judgment.

Speaker 4

This time, we let go of the export credit judgment because now it's built into the model. And I see this more as a one time from an M and A and the integration. And so when we have the next M and A, we'll have more data from another bank. But at this time, the expert credit judgment flows into the updated models, which I think are good because they inform us of what can happen through different trajectories. So we'll continue to keep our models in good standing as required, but the integration impact, like I said, was a onetime event.

Speaker 4

And so that's the 154,000,000 dollars I do want to point out that you will see on Page 21 in our foreign exchange and other a larger release, and that larger release actually includes an $87,000,000 release for our RV portfolio that typically would have gone and netted against the $154,000,000 But under accounting standards, it's reflected in our gain or loss on sale of the RV books. That's in the revenue line. And so if I just bring all of this full circle, what's really important is where we land on the outcome. And so our Q1 provision at $3,500,000,000 is a tad bit lower than where we began the quarter and our coverage is 55 basis points, which is very similar to what you've seen in last few quarters. And so I feel very good about our prudent coverage of 55 basis points in the credit cycle where we are.

Speaker 4

And of course, we'll continue to look at scenarios and look at how the data in our credit portfolio shows up as we get to making decisions every quarter. So just again, to unpeel that to give you some more information how we reached where we reached.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. I might need to follow-up on that. But Tayfun, in the interest of time, can you give me the numbers that are associated with your credit mark? What's been recognized to date as far as, I guess, recoveries? And what the remaining balance is and the time line you expect to see the most impact from that unwind?

Speaker 3

I assume you're talking about the purchase accounting accretion numbers. Yes, I think we have not necessarily given out actual numbers, Gabriel, but I think the year over year change in purchase accounting accretion, which may give you some aspect of the impact on revenues, is probably $250,000,000 to $300,000,000

Speaker 9

Lower this year?

Speaker 3

Correct, compared to last year, full year over full year.

Speaker 9

Yes, Q1 versus Q1 or I'm not sure I follow you actually.

Speaker 3

It's a so if you add up purchase accounting accretion for the full year 'twenty three and compare it to for the full year of 'twenty four, you'll probably see about a $300,000,000 type of decrease in versus accounting accretion.

Speaker 9

Okay, okay. There you go. I was overthinking it. Thank you. And talk to you end of March, Tayfun.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from Doug Young, Desjardins Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi, good morning. I'll try to keep this quick. Tayfun, just that purchase accounting change year over year, how much of that is a normal roll off? How much of that was because of risk transfer transactions or sale of portfolios like the RV book?

Speaker 3

So a portion of that clearly, what sped up some of the accretion in the earlier parts of the acquisition does relate to the RV transaction because we captured some of that accretion in our net gain calculation. So that's the part of the reason why going forward, accretion numbers have come down. And there is a natural degradation because as we continue to capture more of it and in these types of acquisitions, you tend to capture more at the beginning parts of the cycle and then it just gets reduced as you go down the line. But it did have the RV transaction did have a discrete impact.

Speaker 10

Okay. And then Daryl, in your prepared remarks, you talked about the expense savings from Bank of the West and the other $400,000,000 from other actions. And you talked about accelerating. And you talked about the $800,000,000 being as a sub first and more to come. They seem excited that there's more to come.

Speaker 10

Are you indicating to continue on with that discussion around expenses. How confident are you around achieving the positive operating leverage? So I'm just curious about all the different moving pieces on the expense and the revenue side that gives you that confidence.

Speaker 2

Yes. No, I wasn't Doug, I want to be clear. I wasn't signaling that we think there's necessarily more to come. What I was commenting on is the point that we're at in the trajectory on the delivery and reminding you all that of the $800,000,000 we're clocking in at that post February 1, not entirely pre February 1. And then of the $400,000,000 and by the way, we mix currencies on you on this.

Speaker 2

So I'll remind you the $800,000,000 is U. S. And then the $400,000,000 is Canadian. And on the $400,000,000 I think Tayfun explained that we're $325,000,000 through it and then we've got the other $75,000,000 to go. So as what I was trying to do for you for your model Doug is to emphasize that as you go through Q2 and then particularly into Q3 and Q4, the totality of the expense delivery programs increase for us relative to what we're delivering for you right now.

Speaker 2

Is that helpful?

Speaker 10

That is, yes.

Operator

Thank you. The next question, Mike Viswanovic, KBW Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hey, morning. Just a quick question on your margin trajectory here. So down at the Allbank level and then up in Canada and I think flattish in the U. S. So I'm wondering when you guide to a higher negative NII line in corporate, is that where we should see the improvement if in fact you are able to get some margin accretion at the Allbank level maybe second half of this year or perhaps just heading into 2025?

Speaker 11

I'm just wondering where those moving parts will land?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think this quarter, we have seen a little bit of a higher deposit price competition than we were expecting. That's the reason why it came down 6 basis points. In terms of the NII line in Corporate Services, yes, we do expect that line to come down from the Q4 levels, which will somewhat contribute to the stability of the margin because this concept of higher reinvestment yields balancing the deposit pricing competition and term migration is real and it's coming through across we do reflect that was not only on the corporate side, but also in businesses. So we're pretty confident that the outlook for the rest of the year is very tight and stable from here.

Speaker 11

Okay. So you're still confident that you could see margins move higher all bank level even if rates are declining possibly toward the end of the year and heading into 2025? Is that a fair assessment?

Speaker 3

Yes. Our outlook does contain at an interest rate view that the Fed and Bank of Canada will start pulling the short term rates down. I would not guide you to a significant increase in our margin. If it is, it's a couple of basis points. I'm more guiding you towards a stable enterprise level consolidated NIM outlook.

Speaker 3

Okay. That's super helpful.

Speaker 11

And then just wanted to quickly ask Daryl, I think in your prepared remarks, sorry, I think you made a reference to rates coming down, which should help across different aspects of your business lines. And I'm just wondering if you could sort of qualify that. When you say lower rates, are you just talking about the short end of the curve Bank of Canada? Or are you in fact expecting an across the spectrum or across the yield curve duration, like an across the board movement in rates downward. I'm just wondering what you're sort of modeling in your own projections there?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, Mike, I'm happy to take you through the sort of base case with the obvious notation that this has been a difficult game for anybody on the planet to be forecasting. But our base case does suggest that in the second half of the year, probably starting around July, we will begin to see a reduction in the short term administered rates, so both in Canada and in the U. S. As far as the amount that we expect over the course of the second half of the calendar year, if you want to think about it that way, remembering that the calendar year is not the same as the fiscal year for the Canadian banks.

Speaker 2

Of course, we're in the neighborhood of 100 basis points the July period to the end of the calendar year, not capturing all of that in our fiscal naturally. And look, as you look at the longer end of the curve, I think we should probably see some commensurate reduction there as well, but maybe not to the same degree. So you could see some steepening as we go through. That's our base case and you will all have your own base cases to overlay on that, but that's the way we see it relative to the economic performance that we expect in both the Canadian and U. S.

Speaker 2

Economies.

Speaker 3

That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question from Darko Mihelic of B. C. Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Hi, thank you for taking my question. In the interest of time, I'll be very quick. You mentioned that the change in taxation on dividends is about a $50,000,000 reduction in trading revenue. I'm assuming that's a 1 month impact. Should I just be annualizing that?

Speaker 12

Or is there a better way to tell me the headwind from that, maybe from an earnings perspective for 2024?

Speaker 3

Actually, it is not just a 1 month impact. It covers most of the quarter. I would suggest that if you are going to add it in your model, I would use like a $60,000,000 type of number for on a quarterly basis for the remainder of the year. So the $50,000,000 doesn't go to $100,000,000 It just goes to $60,000,000 on a quarterly basis.

Speaker 12

And that's just revenues or are you talking about taxes?

Speaker 3

Revenues and Capital Markets.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question from Paul Holden, CIBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Yes, thanks for taking my time. A couple of follow-up questions to what I think are important discussions on the call. First is just with respect to balance sheet or asset growth. Obviously, you've taken a number of actions over the last 12 months to manage assets and RWA. It sounds like maybe we've reached an inflection point both because you now have the capital to grow the balance sheet again.

Speaker 13

And B, to the point Vadim raised, you're starting to see improved demand as well. So maybe give us a sense of how the balance sheet may grow from here through 2024 and what kind of impact declining interest rates might have on that view as well?

Speaker 3

Yes. So I mean, look, as both Daryl and I said, we have proactively executed a number of these transactions to create room on our balance sheet for growth. And as again, I'm going to turn it over to Ernie and Nadim in terms of asset growth for the future, but we believe that we've prepared our balance sheet both from a capital and liquidity perspective for growth in the future. In terms of timing, I'm going to turn it over to you guys.

Speaker 14

I can start. It's Ernie. If I think about Canada, we do see us growing and probably in the low mid single digits on mortgages and our card book, etcetera. In the U. S, I would say we're probably

Operator

in the low single digits on our

Speaker 14

loan growth, just a reflection of our growth position given our marine RV sale and our indirect auto I'll turn it over to Dave for his comments.

Speaker 6

Okay. For the commercial side, I would say to expect low single digit loan growth on both sides of the border in the near term, building to a more mid single digit loan growth as we move into the latter half of the year, which is the guidance that we had originally provided last quarter, which was mid single digit by the end of the full year.

Speaker 13

Okay. Thank you for that. And then, Daryl, I want to come back to sort of the line of questioning Mario had on the ROE, but his question was specific to the U. S. Bank.

Speaker 13

I want to ask a similar question for the Canadian bank, just given all of the changes that have happened with CET1 requirements, Basel III, your increased usage of risk transfer, etcetera, Does anything change in terms of your long term ROE expectations? Or is this still a bank that should produce a mid teen ROE when things normalize?

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, you'll have seen, Paul, and it's a good question, you'll have seen when we updated our medium term target disclosure at the end of the year, we didn't change the medium term ROE target. So that's a conscious decision. That's an active decision. So when we say we've got an objective of 15% or higher, that remains the case.

Speaker 2

There isn't any question that the industrial changes have had an impact on the ability to deliver that. And it's also the case that if you go back a couple of years, we were closer to 2020 than we were to 2015. So with that as a buffer, as I look out going forward and we

Speaker 13

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This is all the time we have for questions today. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Daryl Wright. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Well, thank you everyone for your questions. We apologize for going a little long, but we wanted to get your questions in given that we started a little late. As you've heard this morning, we're proactively positioning ourselves for an environment of future growth and we're confident in the power of this integrated North American franchise that delivers consistent and differentiated performance to help our clients make real financial progress. We look forward to speaking to you all again in May. Thanks everyone.

Operator

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time and we thank you for your participation.

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Earnings Conference Call
Bank of Montreal Q1 2024
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