Certara Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 29, 2024

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Citar Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer I would now like to hand the conference over to David Deypler, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you all for participating in today's conference call. On the call from Certara, we have William Furey, Chief Executive Officer and John Gallagher, Chief Financial Officer. Earlier today, Certara released financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2023. A copy of the press release is available on the company's website.

Speaker 1

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that management will make statements during this call that include forward looking statements and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward looking statements. Please Please refer to Slide 2 in the accompanying materials for additional information, which you can find on the Company's Investor Relations site. In their remarks or response to questions, management may mention some non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are available in the recent earnings press release available on the company's website. Please refer to the reconciliation tables in the company materials for additional information.

Speaker 1

The conference call contains time sensitive information and is accurate only as of the live broadcast today, February 29, 2024. Shatara disclaims any obligation, except as required by law, to update or revise any financial projections or forward looking statements whether because of new information, future events or otherwise. And with that, I will turn the call over to William.

Speaker 2

Thank you, David. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining Sutara's Q4 and full year earnings call. John and I will start with prepared remarks and then we will take your questions. We are pleased to finish the year with solid Q4 performance in both software and in technology enabled services.

Speaker 2

2023 presented our industry with many challenges as pharmaceutical and biotech customers were conservative in their spending amidst macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures. Our full year reported revenue growth was 6%, in line with the guidance we gave in August. This revenue growth included 14% growth in software and 1% in technology enabled services. We had record software sales in the 4th quarter and we were encouraged see our technology enabled services bookings pick up in the second half of twenty twenty three. So Tara's goal is to enable model informed drug development or MIDD in the global biopharmaceutical industry.

Speaker 2

MIDD is an approach that utilizes biological and statistical models derived from preclinical and clinical data to inform decision making in drug development and commercialization. Bio simulation is a critical component of MIDD that uses computer aided mathematical simulation of biological processes and systems understand the action of a drug in a human body or in a population of humans. Cytara enables our customers to use bio simulation and MIDD to increase the probability of success in bringing a new drug to market and to decrease the cost of drug development. We have an extensive and expanding list of customers within the biopharmaceutical industry, which expanded in 2023 to account of 2,395. Within this customer base as of December 31, 2023, we had 389 customers with an annual contract value of more than $100,000 representing growth of 5% year over year.

Speaker 2

We also had 63 customers with annual contract value of more than $1,000,000 up 11% from 2022. During the second half of twenty twenty three, we reorganized our commercial infrastructure to better sell our end to end solutions and the team delivered improved results in both software and services throughout the second half. With our new enterprise sales approach, we have effectively captured cross selling opportunities, leading to expanded relationships with some of our top customers. I am very happy with the progress our team has made so far. And I'm confident that these improvements will support our commercial initiatives in the coming years.

Speaker 2

Our software business growth of 14 percent in 2023 was driven by our SimSIP, Phoenix and Pinnacle 21 platforms. We have been investing in these products to add new features, a number of which launched during 2023 and will continue to increase traction as we move into 2024. Some of the highlights in 2023 included the 22nd version of our SimSIP PVPK simulator, which included several upgrades to our modeling and simulation capabilities. We also launched SimSIP Biopharmaceuticals, a new module designed to aid drug formulation and expand our presence in the early stages of drug development. Following the acquisition of Viasa last January, we began to integrate AI and machine learning across our portfolio.

Speaker 2

An early example was the release of an updated version of D360, which featured deep learning models for novel chemical structure generation and automated property prediction. We also launched Co Author, a new regulatory writing tool that uses generative AI to aid in the drafting of regulatory submissions. Customer feedback on our AI products has been encouraging and drove customer interest in the second half of the year. Looking ahead to 2024, we will continue to invest in our software platform. One key area of focus is our clinical data strategy.

Speaker 2

Last fall, we augmented the Pinnacle 21 data exchange with the acquisition of ForMedix, a provider of data standardization and automation software. With ForMedix, Satara will bring increased efficiency to clinical trial data management via an end to end solution. In addition to Pinnacle 21, we also plan to invest in other areas such as new models for biosimulation, new products and product features and additional integration of AI across the platform. As biosimulation becomes more widespread, we are broadening the range of our offerings to support additional use cases in therapeutic areas. I'm confident that these investments will create new opportunities to grow our platform on a global scale and penetrate deeper into our customers' R and D organizations.

Speaker 2

Our technology enabled services business overcame market headwinds to deliver solid performance in the second half of twenty twenty three. In August, we announced the consolidation of our biosimilation services and regulatory services teams in order to better deliver all of Certara's capabilities to our customers' projects. Thus far, we are pleased with the improved execution in the services business, which is performing better as a combined organization. Across our technology enabled services group, we saw a pickup in new business activity, which led to sequential bookings growth in the Q4. Customers of all sizes continue to recognize the value that Certarus services can add to their modeling, simulation and regulatory projects.

Speaker 2

We look forward to building on this momentum in 2020 4. As a leader in biosimulation, expanding into emerging methods of modeling and simulation is a key component of our business strategy. In December, we announced the acquisition of Applied Biomat, a leading provider of QSP Services. QSP or quantitative systems pharmacology combines computational modeling and experimental data to simulate how the body will respond to a drug. QSP is at the cutting edge of biosimulation approaches and has vast potential to improve the biopharmaceutical R and D and inform decision making across the drug development process.

Speaker 2

Along with proprietary software, Applied Biomath brings a complementary customer base, which includes clients in the discovery and preclinical stages of development. By combining the Applied Biomass and Certara QSP teams, we are proud to have the largest QSP services group in the drug development industry. In 2023, we continue to invest in our business and expand our team worldwide. We prioritized hiring leading scientists and subject matter experts to support our growth. As of the end of 2023, we had about 1400 employees, including more than 400 employees with doctorate degrees.

Speaker 2

We believe we are the employee of choice in the biosimulation industry and we offer a strong culture and commitment to innovation. We believe there is an opportunity for us to accelerate some investments in 2024 across our organization. In particular, we intend to invest in the development of software capabilities, including AI, as well as expand our commercial organization, including key account management positions. These investments will start to yield minor benefits in 2024, but will be most impactful in 20252026. In closing, we are pleased with our 2023 results.

Speaker 2

The growth opportunity in biosimulation continues to strengthen as drug developers look to maximize capital efficiency and reduce pipeline risk. I am confident that the secular adoption of biosimulation, our improved commercial execution and the investments we are making in our products and our team will support strong growth in 2024 and beyond. I will now turn it over to our CFO, John Gallagher to discuss our Q4 and full year financial results in more detail.

Speaker 3

Thank you, William. Hello, everyone. Total revenue for the 3 months ended December 31, 2023 was $88,000,000 representing year over year growth 2% on a reported basis and 1% on a constant currency basis. For the full year 2023, total revenue was 300 and $54,300,000 which represents 6% growth on a reported basis and on a constant currency basis. Bookings, which provide visibility into the year ahead, came in at $402,300,000 for the trailing 12 month period ended December 31, 2023, down 2% year over year.

Speaker 3

Our total company book to bill ratio ended the year at 1.1 4. Bookings as of December 31, 2023 do not include bookings from Prometic or Applied Biomass. Software revenue was $33,600,000 in the 4th quarter, which increased 15% over the prior year period on a reported basis and 14% on a constant currency basis. The growth in the quarter was driven by biosimulation software and Pinnacle 21. For the full year, software revenue was 100 and $31,700,000 up 14% on a reported basis and on a constant currency basis.

Speaker 3

Ratable and subscription software revenue amounted to 62% of total software revenue for the year, up from 60% in the prior year. Ratable and subscription revenue accounted for 68% of 4th quarter software revenues. Software bookings were $43,300,000 in the 4th quarter, which increased 10% from the prior year period. Trailing 12 month software bookings were $136,900,000 also up 10% year over year. The software aggregate renewal rate was 85% in the 4th quarter and 88% for the year.

Speaker 3

I'd like to take a moment and discuss the ARR metric and how it has evolved over the past couple of years. We had a very strong Q4 software revenue performance, up 15% and on a full year performance, up 14% despite our ARR being in the mid-80s in the second half of the year and 88% for the full year. As our software business has grown and expanded, particularly with additional features and the mix conversion to subscription or ratable software revenue, we have found the ARR metric to be less informative of the underlying performance of the business. As we evaluate customer retention and growth in existing customers across the portfolio, the ARR metric is not capturing the performance of the the products or business when incorporating the SaaS conversion, Viasa options and expanding Pinnacle 21 features among other initiatives. As a result, we are moving away from ARR as a KPI of the software business internally and will do so externally as well.

Speaker 3

For continuity, we will report the ARR on an annual basis going forward. We do believe that the net retention rate, which reflects the existing customer revenue, is a better metric to measure the performance of our existing business. In the Q4 and for the full year 2023, the net retention rate was 109%, which is consistent with our long term growth algorithm. The 4th quarter revenue growth of 15% and full year revenue growth of 14% represent healthy performance and contribution from new customers. On a go forward basis, we intend to provide the software net retention ratio on a quarterly basis.

Speaker 3

Now turning to services revenue, which was $54,400,000 in the 4th quarter, down 5 percent versus the prior year on a reported basis and down 6% on a constant currency basis. For the full year, services revenue was 200 and $22,700,000 up 1% on a reported basis and on a constant currency basis. Technology Driven Services bookings in the 4th quarter were $75,600,000 which decreased 7% from the prior year period. TTM services bookings were $265,400,000 also down 7% as compared to the prior year. Total cost of revenue for the Q4 of 2023 was $34,100,000 an increase from $31,800,000 in the Q4 of 2022, primarily due to a $2,600,000 increase in stock based compensation offset by lower outside consulting costs of 400,000 dollars Total operating expenses for the Q4 of 2023 were $62,400,000 an increase from $43,500,000 in the Q4 of 2022.

Speaker 3

The components of operating expenses are as follows: sales and marketing expenses were $8,700,000 compared to $7,800,000 in the Q4 of 2022. This increase is primarily due to $600,000 in employee expenses due to the expansion of the sales force and $200,000 increase in marketing and travel costs. R and D expenses were $8,000,000 compared to 6.6 $1,000,000 in the Q4 of 2022. R and D expenses were up primarily due to $2,000,000 in employee related costs, which were offset by lower stock based compensation and capital development costs. G and A expenses were 33.6 $1,000,000 compared to $18,300,000 for the Q4 of 2022.

Speaker 3

The increase was primarily due to a $12,800,000 change in contingent considerations related to the Viasa acquisition and $1,600,000 in acquisition costs, partially offset by $1,500,000 decrease in stock based compensation. Intangible asset amortization was $11,700,000 compared to $10,300,000 in the Q4 of 2022. Depreciation and amortization expense was $400,000 flat with last year. Continuing down the P and L, interest expense was $5,900,000 compared to $5,500,000 for the Q4 of 2022 due to higher interest expense related to the floating portion of our term loan. Miscellaneous income was $2,000,000 compared to an expense of $2,200,000 for the Q4 of 2022.

Speaker 3

Income tax expense was $100,000 bringing the full year provision to $200,000 compared to $4,000,000 in the prior full year. Net loss for the Q4 of 2023 was $12,500,000 compared to net income of $9,200,000 in the Q4 of 2022. Reported adjusted EBITDA for the Q4 of 2023 was $29,600,000 compared to $31,900,000 for the Q4 of 2022. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 33.6 percent for the Q4 of 2023 and 34.7% for the full year 2023. Reported adjusted net income for the Q4 of 2023 was $14,300,000 compared to $25,200,000 for the Q4 of 2022.

Speaker 3

Diluted loss per share for the Q4 of 2023 was $0.08 as compared to earnings per share of $0.06 in the Q4 of 2022. Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the Q4 of 2023 was $0.09 compared to $0.16 for the Q4 of 2022. Now moving to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $235,000,000 of cash and cash equivalents. As of December 31, 2023, we had $288,200,000 of outstanding borrowings on our term loan and full availability under our revolving credit facility.

Speaker 3

Turning to the guidance for full year 2024. We expect total revenue in the range of $385,000,000 to $400,000,000 representing growth of 9% to 13% compared with 2023. We expect to grow adjusted EBITDA on a dollar figure basis in 2024 and expect an adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 31% to 33%. We expect adjusted EPS in the range of $0.41 to $0.46 per share, fully diluted shares in the range of $160,000,000 to $162,000,000 and a tax rate in the range of 25% to 30%. I will now turn the call back over to our CEO, William Fery for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, John. To summarize our message today, we are pleased with our 2023 results and we look forward to executing our 2024 goals. There's a lot to be excited about at Certara as we advance biosimulation forward with our software and our technology enabled services. We will now open the line for questions. Operator, can you open the line?

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of David Windwick with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hi, good evening. Thanks for taking my question. I want to ask a couple circle around revenue and related. On the commercial progress, Bill, you talked about traction in the sales force and seeing a nice uptick in the 4th quarter. I also hear you talking about some of the investments being in that sales force.

Speaker 4

So maybe you could talk about what you saw in the quarter that helped the bookings to kind of pick up and meet your expectations? And then where you feel like you need to make those investments to I guess further that traction?

Speaker 5

Thanks, David. Appreciate the question. So what you're referring to is for everybody is that earlier in the year, we combined our sales forces across the company into one sales force where we cover both our software and our technology enabled services. The idea behind doing that was to enable us to offer our clients the full suite of what we have in Certara because after all for a lot of our most of our clients are buying multiple products and services from us. So it's not really efficient to call on the multiple times.

Speaker 5

And in fact, as we brought this out, I think the first investment we had to make was in the training of our sales forces and we had a lot of people who were specialized in certain products or technology enabled services. So as we went through the year, we invested a lot in training. As we got into the Q4, we had people who are able to go into our clients confidently and talk not just about the product they had been known to have been selling all along, but also being able to say, hey, well, you probably are having a drug at this stage and you ought to look at this. And that started to pay off. I'd say that investment in the sales training and just uniting the sales force is probably not fully realized yet.

Speaker 5

We're expecting additional gains as we go through this year. We put we had limited ability to do things like change compensation plans in the middle of 2023 where now we've kind of put in place United compensation plans that are going to 2024. So that will make more sense. And we've got more products that are launching. We've got our AI products.

Speaker 5

We've made investments in hiring people that are have focused on them. And our goal in general is to kind of up the game in terms of the enterprise sale, taking care of our key accounts and moving up the value chain in terms of how our customers think about us. We did benefit in the Q4, I think from a pickup a bit in the end markets. And then I think there were quite a number of big customers that had budgets during the year. I think we referred to this earlier, but like halfway through the year, we had clients saying, well, we haven't cut our budget, but we haven't spent half of our budget.

Speaker 5

So there was a big push on a number of them to kind of catch up to where they wanted to be at the end of the year as well. So that was a welcome finish to the year after some of the things we've seen earlier.

Speaker 4

Excellent. Okay, great. So my follow-up then on revenue and revenue guidance really. You've talked really since the IPO in terms of KPI, leading indicator KPIs and that your trailing 12 month bookings growth is generally a good indicator of for revenue growth that bookings number is down a couple of percent. Your guidance is up almost, I guess, midpoint double digit percent.

Speaker 4

Maybe two points there. One, how much of the revenue guidance is inorganic from ForMedics and Applied Biomass? And then on the organic side, what gives you confidence that you can generate growth out of a trailing bookings number that did not grow? Thanks.

Speaker 6

Yes. Hi, David. It's John. Thanks for the question. Yes, in answer to your first question then, we're looking at the revenue from that perspective on an organic basis in mid single digits.

Speaker 6

So 9% to 13% reported organically is mid single digits and we feel like that's a spot that we're highly confident we can execute against multiple different scenarios or outcomes there. Yes. As far as the second part of the question, then we saw Tier 1 performance do solid stepping up from Q3 into Q4. We saw Tier 1s perform very well in both software and in services. And so that helped us as we exited the year.

Speaker 2

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Ryskin with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hi, thanks for taking questions. This is Wolf on for Mike. Just picking up on guidance, it looks like your adjusted EBITDA margin outlook for 2024 is a little light considering the sales growth that you're expecting plus the plus where you finished 2023. You touched on it a little bit in the prepared remarks, but can you give us some color on how we should be thinking about OpEx growth in 2024 and any areas where you might be able to find some additional operating leverage?

Speaker 6

Yes. Hi, Mike. So yes, the couple of key areas that we're investing in there from a margin perspective that's leading us to the 31% to 33%. I'd say that R and D is a key investment area for us, especially as we're looking at software development. We have key investments across the software platforms, think SIM SIP new modules that Bill mentioned, think Phoenix hosted and then very importantly think about AI investments.

Speaker 6

So that's one key area where you'll see the investment come in. And then the other of course is around the sales force. So Bill was talking about the changes that we made on the commercial model that we're going to expand the sales force and we're expecting to be able to increase the call point as we as that comes through. So that's where you're going to see it. I think it's really important to note though too that we're guiding to the margin of 31% to 33%.

Speaker 6

We're committed to growing EBITDA dollars. So even though we didn't really talk about a range there, I think it's important to note that within that guidance, it's we're committed to growing EBITDA dollars on a year over year basis.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thank you. Appreciate the color. And then as a follow-up, it looks like you logged a pretty sizable adjustment on your for remeasurement of your contingent consideration for Viasa. Can you give us some more color on what drove that and what trends are you seeing in that business particularly?

Speaker 6

Yes. So you're right. What you're seeing there, the adjustment is $12,800,000 and it is centered on Viasa and it's due to the performance of the business there. So we're pleased with the progress and it's one of the key areas for investment. And I think Bill wants to make a couple of comments on it too.

Speaker 5

Yes. The second one John said, I'd say we bought Viasa in basically the beginning of last year, at a really good time, as AI was rolling sort of the realization of what AI can do is really rolling out. We've been very pleased with the integration of Viasa into Certara. As I mentioned on my script, we've already launched a couple of products. We have revenues from them and we expect that to be although modest in 2024, we're getting a tremendous amount of customer interest.

Speaker 5

And as we look forward, we're feeling very encouraged by the progress and the possibilities of what we can do with our products going forward and that's reflected in that revaluation.

Speaker 7

Thanks a lot.

Operator

Thank you. Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Luke Sigat with Barclays. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Great, thanks. I just want to follow-up on the M and A stuff. So buying you guys just acquired 500 basis points. Can you bucket kind of what the contribution from Medex and what biomass is and give us any type of valuation or price paid and then give us a sense of what the margin profile is and fundamental profile of these businesses looks like?

Speaker 6

Yes. Hi. So, some of those details that you're asking about as far as like purchase price are in the K. So that will be something to look at. But as far as like the margin is concerned then, companies that we purchase, we're purchasing companies that are profitable.

Speaker 6

They may operate under what our corporate margin is, but we always have a path way to be able to get them to our corporate margin. And I'd say that for Medex and Biomass, both fall into that camp.

Speaker 2

All right.

Speaker 3

And then I guess just on the guide here, touch a

Speaker 8

little bit, I guess, on what Dave was talking about. So with the outside the 500 basis points from the M and A, still came in pretty sizable above Street. And so I'm just what's the visibility right now in the demand environment from a bookings perspective or RFPs that gives you that confidence to hit that acceleration? And anything that you can give us on the pacing of what that looks like?

Speaker 6

Yes. There's 3 things I'd call out. 1 is around the momentum. So I talked a little bit about momentum exiting the year. We were happy with Tier 1s.

Speaker 6

We also saw stability in the Tier 3s as we were coming out of the year. And so that those bookings, they didn't convert to revenue in Q4, of course, and that's what we'd be looking for in 2024. So that momentum is a solid point for us. The second point is around it's just around the backlog conversion that we experienced during 2023 when some of the bookings conversion was slowing down has a trickle over effect into 2024. So that also is a tailwind for us and being able to convert into 2024.

Speaker 6

So when you take those together, that spells growth. And then on top of that, of course, we have new products. I was touching on some of those before. We have new products that we're offering across the software platforms and that and think AI, think Phoenix hosted, think about the SimSieve modules. When you take those 3 different catalysts together is why we have confidence in the organic mid single digits.

Speaker 8

All right. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Garro with Stephens. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. Wanted to dive into the strong software bookings a bit. I was hoping you could help parse out contributions qualitatively from price increases, adding new clients, the new products that you launched in 2023 and then the kind of old standby of cross selling existing products to your large existing customer base?

Speaker 6

I think the key thing that we'd point you to is this software net retention rate that we think is an important metric in looking at software. So on the quarter that was it was 109% and that cooked into that is existing customers expanding. We have pricing in that. And then the build to get to the overall software growth is the addition of new logos on top of it and that's how you get to 15% on the quarter. So we wouldn't break out really by platform what that looks like, but 15% software growth, 14% on the year is a good spot for us to be.

Speaker 6

As I mentioned as we exited the year on bookings. So that positions us well as we approach 2024.

Speaker 9

Excellent. I appreciate that. And then to follow-up is, as we think about the mid single digit organic growth for 2024, How would you compare that to the market growth? It seems like the commentary on the end market is improving and that's reflected in your trajectory. But what I'm really getting at is with your 2024 guidance, does that kind of assume that you're taking market share?

Speaker 9

Or is that more an upside case?

Speaker 5

Thanks, Jeff. This is Bill. I think a couple of things are going on in the market right now. So one is on the larger companies, we're seeing some stabilization in demand as they reevaluated their portfolios last year. A lot of them have come out of that and decided what they want to do.

Speaker 5

So we've seen, I think and we've assumed that that demand stays at least steady as we go through the year. We are hearing signs of a pickup in biotechs. There's some statistics published that indicate increased funding. I don't think we've really seen that come through in our bookings so far. But based on what we're seeing, we're expecting that that maybe in the second half of the year, we'll start to see that a little bit healthier market segment there than we had in 2023.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks for taking the question.

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Cherny with Leerink Partners. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Good afternoon and thanks for all the details so far. Appreciate the color on the organic growth. Can you just give us a little sense on how you expect it to trend between software and services? And I know it's almost expected we can follow some of the bookings, but just want to make sure we have a good understanding on various different growth rates, both organic and inorganic contribution against the backdrop of your margin commentary for the year.

Speaker 6

Yes. So the way to think about it as a sort of cadence through the year would be that, we would see some acceleration across both software and services Q1 through into Q4. I'd say for software that there's less of that. And then I think there's really more of a story on first half, second half on the services side of the business. But even when you look at that, it's probably a couple of 100 basis points north and south of 50% when you look at services accelerating into the back half.

Speaker 6

Coinciding with that also would be from a margin perspective since historically we have had a strong Q4 then and because of the ramp that we'd see going as we progress through the year, then we'd expect the margin to progress in that fashion as well.

Speaker 10

Margin progressing alongside services, which I assume would come in at a lower gross margin or some other

Speaker 6

No, I meant total co I meant in that regard total company margin and the progression during the course of the year. Our margin would typically be lower in Q1 than it would be in Q4 where we've historically, including this past Q4, had strong revenues.

Speaker 10

Okay, got it. And then when you think about where you sit right now, obviously having continued the recent M and A building into QSP, how do you think about that next leg of pipeline for inorganic growth? This is obviously a business that's had great contributions as you've built out that portfolio. At what point in time do you feel like service wise critical mass has essentially been achieved? Or is this going to continually be especially as you get back into the market with more demand a perpetual growth opportunity for more and more bolt ons like we've seen recently been successfully?

Speaker 5

Yes. So this is Bill. I'll take this one. So we've been fortunate to have a history of a fair number of very successful bolt on acquisitions that helped us create the company. But we've said from the beginning that I guess first point is we're in an interesting space where there's a lot of interesting technologies and companies available, but we don't think about the world as we expect or have to do inorganic deals.

Speaker 5

Most of the deals we've done have been companies that we've worked with very closely. We knew them really well and made a lot of sense for them to come into a bigger platform and we've been successful with that. As we go forward, we're always looking at things. But if we do the way I feel like this is if we do no deals, that'd be fine. There's plenty of organic opportunities in Certara.

Speaker 5

But sometimes you see technologies where you add 1 on 1, you get more than 2. And when we see those types of things, I think it's really good that we have the ability and the track record of moving successfully to integrate them into Certara.

Speaker 10

Got it. Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Vikram with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 11

This is Vikram. Thanks for taking our questions. We had 2. My first one was a follow-up to your commentary on the health of the biotech markets. I just wanted to clarify one item on your guidance here.

Speaker 11

So does your current revenue guidance for 2024 contemplate a certain level of recovery in the second half of the year? Or would that present 4% upside to your current guidance? And then as a follow-up, I was hoping to get your latest thoughts on geographic expansion and whether there are any ex U. S. Geographies that represent particular areas of focus for you?

Speaker 11

Thanks.

Speaker 6

Yes, sure. So as far as the biotech market itself, then we do we have it at stable, the way that we presented our guidance and the way that we think about it. So as we exited as we looked at Q3, we saw stability there. We exited Q4 with stability. And our guidance contemplates stability throughout the year.

Speaker 6

Of course, we read the same things everybody else does. So we know that there is the possibility of an improving market. And perhaps that happens more in the back half, but that's not the way that we built the guidance in this case. And then your the second part of your question was related to ex U. S.

Speaker 6

I mean, some of the investments that we're making outside of the U. S. Are areas that we see for growth, including Asia Pacific. We have a strong base of business in Europe. But I'd tell you that the growth profile of what we're looking for here in the guidance is centered mainly in the U.

Speaker 6

S. And in the European markets for 2024.

Speaker 11

Understood. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Max Mach with William Blair. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Hey, good afternoon guys. Thanks for taking our questions.

Speaker 1

I'm just asking a little

Speaker 12

bit about a longer term one here on the margins. And just getting your thoughts on the long term trajectory, in particular, I know during the IPO process, you mentioned getting up to high 30% longer term. Just wondering if that is still kind of the long term target here and how we should think about the margin trajectory beyond 2024?

Speaker 5

Yes. So I'll start and I'll let John chime in. The way we think about this is we can easily run this company at mid-30s EBITDA margin. Right now at this period of time, we have significant opportunities to make investments in our software and our AI, some of the things we talked about. We're going to do that through 2024.

Speaker 5

At the end of 2024, we could certainly have the option to go right back to where we were, but we'll evaluate and see what the opportunities are for our company and our shareholders at that point.

Speaker 6

Yes. And then so to carry on to what Bill said, as we look at 2024, of course, we're looking at 31% to 33% margin. There's investments that we talked about that we're making. I think some of those investments, as we mentioned, the sales force will start to kick in really at the very tail end of 2024 and then we'll have a stronger impact in 2025. And so as Bill mentioned, it's really within the management team's control to evaluate the pace of those investments and the amount of those investments and be able to toggle our margin accordingly as we move through this year.

Speaker 12

Got it. Thank you. Maybe just following up on the services piece. Can you remind us for 2023 as we move into 2024

Speaker 6

here, how big of a

Speaker 12

piece regulatory services is within the broader services bucket? How that piece performed in total in 2023? And then what you have embedded in your guide for that regulatory services piece in 2024?

Speaker 6

Yes. So in Max, in Q4, the regulatory business represented 19% of total revenue. Of the services revenue, it represents about 30% of it. We as we had mentioned, we anticipated that business contracting during 2023, it did. The signs of the positive signs though that you heard us talking about were mainly centered in bookings and came in Q4 where we had said that business is marked by often having large deal bookings come in, in Q4 and we saw that happen.

Speaker 6

So we had a number of large size bookings come in Q4 that's going to turn to revenue during 2024. So as we approach 2024 and what that business looks like inside of our guidance there, then we see it returning to growth. But that's going to happen

Speaker 3

over a period of quarters.

Speaker 12

Understood. Thanks again for taking our questions. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the call back over to Will for closing remarks.

Speaker 5

Thank you everybody for joining us tonight. We're looking forward to a great 2024 for Certara and we'll see you on the next call. Good evening.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Certara Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00