Equinor ASA Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 7, 2024

There are 19 speakers on the call.

Operator

We don't have the answers for the future.

Operator

But when did we ever? Times change And so does the search for better. Searching for better today is finding and producing the oil the world still depends on, while continuing to cut production emissions until the day we can leave it in the ground. It's about securing natural gas to Europe and transporting CO2 emissions from European Industries back to the North Sea for safe storage. It's building the world's largest offshore wind and hoping it won't be the largest for long.

Operator

In the search for better, there are no endings, only beginnings. That's why our most important work starts when this film stops.

Speaker 1

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It's a pleasure to welcome you all to the presentation of Equinor's 2023 Research And Capital Markets update. My name is Bor Glad Pellegen and I'm heading up Investor Relations. Before we start, I want to give some safety instructions for those of us here in the room. If an emergency situation should occur, the evacuation signal is a voice alarm.

Speaker 1

Please note That we only evacuate if the voice announcement say that we should do so. Then Please use the fire exits. Follow the signs and messages from the guards. The procedure during an evacuation is to exit and disperse safely away from the building. And then further notice will be given during normalization.

Speaker 1

Today, we will have 4 presentations in the primary session. First, our CEO, Anders Uppler Then the EVPs for EPN and TDI, that is Jethil Hove and Herges Krusek. And finally, our CFO, Torgrim Reita. After the presentations, we will have a Q and A session in this room and the full CC team is here and available and ready to answer your question. During the Q and A, we will also take questions from those of you following us online.

Speaker 1

After the Q and A, we have 3 breakout sessions. 1, with Anders and Torgrim the second, with the EVPs for EPI and PDP, Filip Mathieu and Gerd Tungesvik and the 3rd with the EVPs for REN and MMP, Paul Atrem and Irene Rumelhoof. Finally, let me remind you that this presentation Thus include forward looking statements and non GAAP measures and we refer you to Slide 2 in the pack in this respect. Then we are ready to start, and I hand it over to you, Anders.

Speaker 2

So thank you, Borch, and welcome to all of you. It's really good to see you here in London, and I've looked forward to meet all of you today. So let me start with my key messages. We present strong results for 2023. 2nd, We deliver on what we said last year and are on track for our 2,030 ambitions.

Speaker 2

3rd, we provide visibility for the cash flow and transition all the way to 2,035. And finally, we sustained returns and continue to deliver competitivecapitaldistribution. Geopolitics remain 10th in 2024 with wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East. Uncertainty and volatility continue to impact economic growth, transition frameworks and energy markets. Despite all uncertainties, One thing is clear.

Speaker 2

Energy security and energy transition will be on top of all society's agenda. In this environment, Equinor Strategy is resilient, secure transition and growth, and we remain firm on our direction. We are developing the energy solutions for tomorrow, while securing the energy needed today. We believe in a balanced energy transition and we'll develop new growth engines to stay competitive long term. Our market position in Europe and our industrial legacy from the Norwegian continental shelf is a strong competitive advantage.

Speaker 2

Currently, European gas storage levels are high And industrial demand is below average. Forward prices have come down from for 2024 and for 2025, but are at a higher level than we have been used to in the past. We see sign of demand recovery in Europe and higher demand in Asia. This may put upward price pressure on prices. We are well positioned and our strong project pipeline Give line of sight to 2,035.

Speaker 2

We can deliver a stronger cash flow, a broader energy offering and lower emissions. I will revert to this, but first Our 2023 results. Safety of our people is our number one priority. Last year, We had a tragic fatality when a crew member fell overboard from a contracted LPG tanker in Malaysia. It made a deep impact on all of us.

Speaker 2

And together with the ship owner, we follow-up the incident and implement learnings. Our key safety indicators have improved over several years, and we maintain this level for 2023. But we are not satisfied and will continue our efforts to improve. Our goal is clear. All our people returning safely home from work every day.

Speaker 2

Securing our assets is important to safeguard our people, operations and energy security. We have continued to improve by implementing new measures and closer collaboration with authorities and industry partners. In 2023, we delivered strong results with adjusted earnings of $36,000,000,000 This is our 2nd best results ever. We set the bar high at our Capital Markets update last year. And we have delivered around $20,000,000,000 in cash flow from operations after tax and capital distribution has communicated.

Speaker 2

Overall, our financial performance was strong with 25 percent return on capital employed. Last year, we increased Our guiding for the midstream segment, and we have delivered in or above the range for all quarters, In total, dollars 3,200,000,000 We produced close to 2.1 1,000,000 barrels per day with a CO2 intensity of 6.7 kilo per barrel. This is less than half of the industry average. Gross CapEx share To renewables and low carbon was 20%. We are on track to above 30 by 2025 and above 50 in 2,030.

Speaker 2

And we added 8 gigawatts to our renewable project pipeline. In sum, we are on track delivering on our strategy and our energy transition plan. This is hard work in a challenging and competitive Context. I'm proud of the strong efforts by competent colleagues across Equinor. Through this year, we have welcomed around 2,000 new colleagues, replacing and renewing competence, demonstrating our continued attractiveness in a tight labor market.

Speaker 2

We are on track to our 2,030 ambitions, delivering on our strategy. We demonstrate transition, profitability and growth coming from the actions already taken. And for the first time, we extend the outlook further to 2,035. We are changing. We will grow our cash flow and become stronger.

Speaker 2

We will transition and be broader, and we will cut emissions as a leading company in the energy transition. In 2,035, we expect a stronger cash flow. Oil, gas and trading is expected to contribute with an annual average of around $20,000,000,000 after tax all the way to 2,035. Cash flow from renewables And low carbon solutions come on top of this. We expect this around $3,000,000,000 in 2,030, increasing to more than SEK 6,000,000,000 in 2,035.

Speaker 2

We will transition and grow while maintaining profitability. We expect Around $13,000,000,000 of CapEx in 2024 and indicate 14 to 15 in 2025 to 2027. It is important to note That Empire Wind is fully included here, consolidated in our accounts and with 100% Ownership. Excluding this effect, our CapEx outlook is fully consistent with what we said last year. And remember, we intend to use project financing and farm down at the right time, and this would then reduce the CapEx.

Speaker 2

Towards 2,030, We expect above 15% return on capital employed, and we target to maintain around 15% to 2,035. And Torgrim will share more when he is on stage. Our energy mix will be broader in 2,035. We expect to produce more than 80 terawatt hours of renewable power and decarbonized energy. At the same time, We increased our ambition for CO2 transport and storage, targeting 30,000,000 to 50,000,000 tons per year by 2,035.

Speaker 2

We will continue cutting our own emissions, and we will increase renewables, decarbonized energy and carbon storage. With this, We expect to reduce our net carbon intensity with 40% by 2,035. Our oil and gas portfolio will create value well beyond this decade. And our 3 year average of organic reserve replacement ratio is 107 percent. And our 3 year average over and we have profitable projects coming on stream with an average breakeven price of around $35 per barrel.

Speaker 2

Maintaining this level with the recent cost inflation demonstrate capital discipline and improvements. Johan Castberg is the first of the big ones expected to come on stream late this year. We expect to increase our production by more than 5% from 2023 to 2026 and deliver around 2,000,000 barrels per day in 2,030. We have a pipeline of projects to half emission from operations by 2,030. About half of the projects needed to achieve this are already approved by governments, And we expect to progress more projects this year.

Speaker 2

Towards 2,030, we expect annual investments of around $10,000,000,000 in oil and gas and get on average around $20,000,000,000 back in cash flow from operations after tax. Our oil and gas portfolios in Norway and internationally are distinct. Internationally, we are improving the quality of the portfolio and expect to increase the cash flow by 50% by 2,030. And on the Norwegian continental shelf, We have a unique position and can increase recovery, creating high value for longer well into next decade. Let me share some details.

Speaker 2

Our international portfolio is becoming more robust and profitable. Last year, we announced divestments in Nigeria and Azerbaijan, And we continue to deepen in core areas with final investment decision on Rosebank in the U. K, Raya in Brazil and Sparta in the U. S. These large projects bring high value growth, And we expect to increase our international oil and gas production to around 800,000 barrels per day in 2,030.

Speaker 2

But more important, we expect the cash flow to grow more than the production. Therefore, cash flow per barrel will be $5 higher. In total, We expect to grow our production by 15% and our cash flow from operations by more than 50% from 2024 to 2,030 and keep this level towards 2,035. This is quality improvement. On the Norwegian continental shelf, we work systematically to drive long term production.

Speaker 2

And we know the geology. We have the expertise, the competence and technology. The infrastructure is already paid for and will be decarbonized. We use all of this as we plan wells, develop projects and increase recovery. This enables high production for longer at around 1,200,000 barrels per day in 2,035.

Speaker 2

Here again, Kjetil will share how we work and implement new technology to create higher value for longer. We expect to continue to deliver 40 Bcm of gas to Europe Equinor share on average to 2,035. And we have low cost and low emissions with an average supply cost to Europe below $2 per MMBtu. We have proven our ability to deliver renewables projects and value creation. We are firm on our strategy, flexible in execution and have adapted to the market conditions.

Speaker 2

The acquisitions of the onshore platforms Vento, Big Green and Rio Energy Contribute with capacity and cash flow. And recently, we started our first commercial battery storage in the U. K. Our trading company Danske Commodities brings additional returns. Danske already has more than 12 gigawatts of assets under management.

Speaker 2

In total, We are developing an integrated power portfolio. In the U. S, we are high grading our offshore wind portfolio, taking the full ownership of the Empire Wind Project and have delivered a bid for the 4th bid round in New York. This is the solution creating most value, and we intend to use project financing and farm down to reduce exposure and increase returns. Equinor is well positioned in a long term growth market.

Speaker 2

We have accessed our renewable pipeline to achieve the ambition of 12 to 16 gigawatt installed capacity by 2,030, and we aim to deliver above 65 terawatt hours of renewable power by 2,035. Real base project return is the foundation for prioritization and ensuring capital discipline. On top, we capture additional value, pulling different levers depending on the project and the market. We achieved nominal equity return Of 12% to 16%, both for Deutsche Bank, the world's largest offshore wind farm and for our solar plants in Europe. The framework for CO2 storage is improving rapidly.

Speaker 2

And based on our project pipeline, we increased our ambition for CO2 storage, targeting 30,000,000 to 50,000,000 tons per year by 2,035. Our first commercial CO2 storage facility, Northern Lights, is on track to be completed this year. This kick starts the market for CO2 transport and storage needed for reduced Emissions for the hard to abate industries. Based on almost 30 years of experience With safely storing CO2, we expect to grow this as a business. We expect real returns of 4 to 8 real for the early phase when we build markets and there is government support.

Speaker 2

As markets are more developed and commercialized, we expect higher returns. With the profitability and the volumes, low carbon solutions will be a source for long term cash flow. Then turning to capital distribution. Today, we present an outlook for cash flow growth and strong returns. For me, it is important that this is reflected also in our capital distribution.

Speaker 2

The Board proposes a 17% step up in the ordinary cash dividend to $0.35 per share. Our dividend policy is to grow the annual cash dividend in line with underlying earnings, and this remains firm. To increase predictability, we now state Our ambition to grow the ordinary cash dividend by $0.02 per year going forward. In addition to growing the ordinary cash dividend, we also propose an extraordinary cash dividend of $0.35 for 4th quarter. This brings the total Cash dividend to $0.70 per share.

Speaker 2

The Board is clear on its intention to continue the extraordinary dividend for the 1st 3 quarters of 2024 and then expects to conclude the use of extraordinary dividends. Share buyback is an integrated part of our capital distribution. We continue our program from 2021 of annual buybacks of $1,200,000,000 But based on our balance sheet and the plans we present today, we will do more in 2024 and in 2025. We announced a 2 year buyback program of $10,000,000,000 to $12,000,000,000 in total. For 2024, we continued the buyback level from last year of $6,000,000,000 In total, This gives a capital distribution to shareholders of $14,000,000,000 in 2024, $8,000,000,000 to $10,000,000,000 in 2025 and increased predictability for the future.

Speaker 2

I will not repeat all the numbers, but let me sum up. We are positioned for transition and growth. Towards 2,035, We can deliver a stronger cash flow from a broader energy mix with lower emissions. And with strong returns, we continue capital distribution continue competitive capital distribution with increased predictability. So thank you all for the attention.

Speaker 2

I really look forward to all your questions later. And as Bor said, I'm joined here with the full executive team and we are happy to answer all the questions. But first, Chaitil, the floor is yours.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Anders. The Norwegian continental shelf continues to deliver solid results, And we expect to deliver solid production and cash flow all the way to 2,035. On the picture on the front page, you see the Breida Blek field, which is tied back to the Grane platform, And the picture is selected for a reason. We delivered Breitablik 4 months ahead of plan and below budget, demonstrating our project execution skills. In addition, it visualizes what we are doing on the Norwegian continental shelf.

Speaker 3

Grane was put on stream more than 20 years ago. And according to the initial development plan, The field should have been close to life end by now. Based on consistent Investment in infrastructure led exploration and increased oil recovery, the platform is now producing above 100,000 barrels and is expected to be in production until 2,060 at least. Now we are working on decarbonizing the production by electrifying the installation, reducing the carbon intensity to below 0.1 kilogram CO2 per barrel within 2,030. This is what we are doing on the Norwegian continental shelf.

Speaker 3

We are utilizing our infrastructure and capabilities built Through the last 50 years, we're maintaining high production level and thereby creating long term cash flow, while We are reducing our CO2 emissions. In 2023, we delivered strong cash flow from the NCS. And at the same time, we reduced the CO2 emissions from our operations. In 2023 2024, Our CO2 emissions will be reduced with more than 10%, and at the same time, we will have a production growth. Towards 2,035, we expect to maintain the production level from Densys at the same level As we started this decade, 1,200,000 barrels of oil per day.

Speaker 3

This will generate An average annual cash flow from operations after tax of around US12 $1,000,000,000 from US24 and all the way to 2,035. To deliver this, we plan to invest at an average level of around US6 billion dollars annually towards 2,035. And these investments will be within 4 main areas: to deliver on our sanctioned project portfolio to mature and sanction the large non sanctioned project portfolio, to increase the recovery from our fields and to develop discoveries from our extensive infrastructure led exploration effort. We will also invest in decarbonizing our production, reducing our CO2 footprint with 50% in 2,030, 70% in 2,040 and close to 0 in 2,050. We have a very robust project portfolio in the execution phase on the NCS.

Speaker 3

We have 21 projects with an average breakeven less than $35 per barrel and a payback time less than 1.5 year. The project portfolio will have a CO2 footprint less than 4 kilos CO2 per barrel since most of the projects are tiebacks to installations that are or will be electrified. And this project portfolio will add around 250,000 barrels and give us a production growth towards 2026. In addition to the large sanctioned project portfolio, we have an even larger Number of non sanctioned projects. We have more than 30 projects that we are maturing towards investment decisions in the coming years.

Speaker 3

The projects are in an early maturation phase, but we expect an average breakeven of the portfolio of around $35 per barrel and a payback time of around 1.5 year. For many of the new subsea tiebacks fields, we are looking into new ways of working to reduce time with 50% and a cost level of at least 30%. This will reduce the breakevens from this field with 30% compared to more standard subsea development. And this will be done through new technologies such as the CapEx well subsea wells and by taking out portfolio synergies. These projects will give us around 350,000 barrels in production after 2,030 and will therefore be an important contributor for us to maintain the production level after 2,030.

Speaker 3

And these projects will have an even lower CO2 emissions since they will be tied back to electrified installations. In addition to the large sanction and non sanctioned project portfolio, we are working hard to increase the recovery factor from our fields. Historically, we have been since sanctioning been able to increase the average recovery factor from around 30% to around 50% from our oilfields. And there is still a large remaining potential in our fields. And we plan to deliver to 70 increased recover wells annually in this decade.

Speaker 3

Many of these wells are using new technologies such as retrofit multilateral wells, multistage fracking and Advanced Completion Solutions, reducing the cost and increasing the production. And these are highly profitable barrels with a breakeven of around $20 per barrel and a payback time less than a year. We're also planning for around 300 interventions annually to increase production from our existing wells. And in addition, for many of our late life assets, we are planning to sanction low pressure projects to reduce the reservoir pressure and thereby increasing the recovery from our fields. This increased recovery effort will give us an annual production of around $150,000 towards 2,035 with a very low CO2 footprint.

Speaker 3

And finally, we believe there still is an attractive remaining exploration potential on the NCS. These are high value barrel since they can be tied back to existing infrastructure that is already paid for and decarbonized. We are therefore planning to drill 20 to 30 exploration wells on the Norwegian continental shelf towards 2,035. In this decade, we plan to be closer to 30 wells CLE, and more than 70% of them will be in licenses that we already hold. The remaining wells will be drilled in licenses from the annual license round.

Speaker 3

And this year, we were awarded 39 new licenses, which is one of the largest awards we have ever had on the Norwegian continental shelf. Our exploration strategy is that around 80% of the exploration wells will be drilled close to the infrastructure in known exploration place. This is normally low risk exploration with high probability of success. And new discoveries can be put on stream quickly since they will require limited new infrastructure. A recent example is the Ublix discoveries last year that revitalized the Deepwater Norwegian Sea close to the Osterholm field.

Speaker 3

The remaining 20% of the exploration wells will be drilled in new place, still quite close to our infrastructure. These are higher potential wells, but with somewhat higher risk than the pure infrastructure led exploration targets. These wells can open new place also in known area, such as the Kreise, the Heisenberg and the Neurma discoveries during the last years, Discoveries that you may not have heard about, but you should not underestimate them because many because there are many of them, And this could open new place with large potential on the NCS. The key driver for our view on the potential on the Norwegian component itself is the investments that we have made in new exploration seismic the last 5 years. This is seismic with fit for purpose technologies that reveals potential that we did not see on our legacy seismic.

Speaker 3

And Hege will revert back to this later after me. After 2,030, we expect that we will get 100,000 to 300,000 barrels per day from our infrastructure led exploration effort. And by adding the investments in project, Increased recovery and infrastructure led exploration, we expect to deliver 1,200,000 barrels per day in 2,035. Our ability to develop And utilize new technology has been a key reason for our value creations on the NCS the last 50 years. Also in the next decades, we believe technology will enhance the value creation on the NCS.

Speaker 3

We are therefore planning to invest USD 300,000,000 to USD 400,000,000 annually on technology development on the Norwegian continent itself in the coming years. So Hege, can you please elaborate on the technology effort that we are doing on the Norwegian continental shelf.

Speaker 4

Good afternoon, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here. We are now rescanning our core areas on the NCS all over again for remaining resources. A very good example is the Troll area where we have 500 1,000,000 barrels proven with a significant upside potential. This equals to a full year of NCS production.

Speaker 4

We identify opportunities that were not visible to us before and this we do due to First, over the past 2 years, we have invested $200,000,000 in new High quality exploration seismic with technologies like ocean bottom and topsize, both representing a step change in image quality. And this It's on top of the 70 petabytes, which is a huge number of legacy seismic and well data that we already have. 2nd, to significantly increase insight and speed, we have developed AI based technologies using deep learning algorithms. These recognize complex patterns in pictures, sound waves and other data sets. What used to take weeks now take hours.

Speaker 4

3rd, By combining this with the unique competence that we have on the NCS, We see that mature areas are still very prospective. We are targeting all core areas of the NCS, Sutter Sleitner and Johan Castberg. For these 2 alone, We have identified 37 high quality leads and prospects. To secure competitiveness both on the NCS and in our international portfolio, We are constantly seeking improvements through technology. This is on safety, it's on Emission reduction is on value generation and it's on cost.

Speaker 4

In 2019, we opened our Integrated Operations Center in Bergen. Here we are monitoring a huge amount of data from our offshore operations to optimize production and improve decisions. The value created from increased production and reduced CO2 emissions was more than $2,000,000,000 in 2023. To reduce unplanned downtime, we are widely implementing predictive maintenance. A single instance on Corste allowed our experts to detect an emerging failure and saved $30,000,000 The innovative power in Equinor is also highly engaged in developing new value chains.

Speaker 4

Let me highlight a few examples. Building on the great experience from our integrated operations center, we are introducing new digital solutions for operation and maintenance on the Dogger Bank wind farm. These solutions are currently not available in the market. This will extend lifetime from 25 to 35 years, allowing us to increase revenues in the merchant period, reduce operational cost and increase Efficiency. Our venture team is actively engaged with start ups all over the world.

Speaker 4

The collaboration between start ups and an industrial player like Equinor creates massive synergies. Last year, we entered into a strategic partnership with Captura to develop an industrial scale solution to remove CO2 from ocean. We will pilot Kaptura's direct ocean Capture technology at Corste. The captured CO2 is planned use for the commissioning of the Northern Light Facilities. This pilot is an important step towards commerciality for ocean capture technology.

Speaker 4

To sum up, we are stepping up on innovation. We are investing $800,000,000 in 20.24 in R and D. We are combining partnerships with competence, data, technology and of course fully utilizing the opportunities within AI. This is how we will secure longevity and competitiveness on the NCS and beyond and unlock new business opportunities in the value chain. Thank you.

Speaker 4

And with that, I welcome Torgrim up on stage.

Speaker 5

So

Speaker 6

good afternoon, everyone. Very good to see you again as always. And thank you, Heike. So three things. We aim to grow cash flow from operations all the way to 20.35.

Speaker 6

And we aim to maintain a strong return on capital employed while we do this. And then based on this growth and the strong return, we are going to step up the ordinary capital distribution, And we are going to provide you with a competitive capital distribution. So But let me start with the 'twenty three results. The solid operational performance and production growth led to strong results in the quarter and for the year. The cash flow from operations came in at 19 $700,000,000 in line with what we said in the Capital Markets Day last year.

Speaker 6

Strategically, we saw solid progress in the quarter, optimizing our oil and gas portfolio and announced divestments in Nigeria and Azerbaijan. The long term gas sales agreement with CEFE will provide Europe with 10,000,000,000 cubic meter of gas until 2,034. And there's an option there to prolong that to 2,039. And this is one of the largest gas sales that we have done. And I think it demonstrates very well the long term attractiveness of natural gas to Europe.

Speaker 6

And then we have high graded our renewables portfolio by taking 100 percent ownership in a mature Empire Wind project in the U. S. So strong production in the quarter. And for the year, we delivered 2,100,000 barrels per day, more than 2% growth from last year, despite the prolonged turnarounds on the NCS impacting the production in the second and third quarter. International production was strong through the year, and the increased capacity at Johan Sverdrup contributed well.

Speaker 6

Renewables production came in 17% higher than last year. And gas to power from Triton Power was lower in the quarter due to weaker spark spreads. Then to the financials. We continue to deliver strong earnings, Impacted by lower prices than the year before, adjusted earnings in E and P Norway totaled 7,600,000,000 dollars before tax, driven primarily by higher production. Our international segments delivered more than $850,000,000 in total.

Speaker 6

And the U. S. Business was impacted by an exploration expense of around SEK160 1,000,000. Our Marketing And midstream segment came in at the lower end of the guided range for the quarter, mainly due to lower liquids margins. However, MMP has delivered within or above the increased guided range for 4 consecutive quarters.

Speaker 6

Our renewables business Post negative results due to high project activity level and as expected. Our adjusted OpEx and SG and A is up 7%, similar to the production growth that we have seen quarter to quarter. The underlying cost increase is also around 7% when you adjust for currency and one offs. So Our focus on cost and capital discipline continues. The tax Rates were high in the quarter, largely due to one off effects in E and P Norway and EPI.

Speaker 6

In addition, MMP's tax rate was higher, driven by the high share of earnings from natural gas. And finally, we report a net impairment of slightly above $300,000,000 in the quarter related to the Azerbaijan divestments. However, we expect to post a gain on the Nigeria divestments when that closes. The cash flow from operations after tax came in at 19 $700,000,000 Our organic net CapEx is $10,200,000,000 for the full year, also in line with our guiding. For the Q4, NCS tax payments totaled around $8,000,000,000 And for the first half of twenty twenty four, this year, we expect to pay 3 installments of NOK 37,000,000,000 each.

Speaker 6

Last quarter, capital distribution was significant, $3,200,000,000 So then our balance sheet is strong With $39,000,000,000 in cash, then that brings our net debt ratio to negative 22% by end of the year. So now let me move to the Capital Markets updates, where I will share how we will grow cash flow all the way to 2,035 from a broader portfolio with lower emissions. And how we will deliver strong returns and competitive capital distribution while we do all of this. So let us start with our financial framework. Value over volume is fundamental to the way we are building our business.

Speaker 6

And this support a return on capital employed above 15%. Our long term guidance to our net debt ratio is 15% to 30%. We are well positioned, and we are comfortable operating below this level. But we will move towards this range using capital distribution as one of our tools. And with the $14,000,000,000 distribution for 2024, we expect Our net debt to be positive by year end.

Speaker 6

We are robust to lower prices and can be cash flow neutral at around $55 per barrel. This is a slight increase from last year, impacted by other things by increased CapEx. We remain disciplined, and we have large flexibility in our investment program to handle a low price scenario. And then we are progressing in line with our energy transition plan. Within this framework, we expect to deliver a strong and growing cash flow for many years to come.

Speaker 6

In the middle here, you see around $20,000,000,000 per year coming from oil and gas and trading. And on top of that, dollars 3,000,000,000 from Renewables and Low Carbon Solutions in 2,030. So this is an increase. This is an increase compared to what we said last year. So let's take a closer look at how This all come together.

Speaker 6

So the blue bars, they show our cash flow at different price decks. In the middle of the bar, you see the $75 case. And you can see that it grows significantly to this decade. We expect $23,000,000,000 in 2,030. Of that, oil and gas is expected to be $20,000,000,000 on average per year.

Speaker 6

For 2024, the number is around SEK 17,500,000,000 impacted by the tax lag on the NCS. But coming back to above SEK 20,000,000,000 in 2025. In the appendix, you can find an overview of sensitivities for different prices. On top of the orange bar, You can see the material contribution from renewables and low carbon towards the end of the decade. And then the green bars, They show CapEx.

Speaker 6

You can see the stable investments into oil and gas of around $10,000,000,000 per year. We intend to farm down in some of our international projects with a high ownership share. For example, our Rosebank project in the U. K. And this is included in this.

Speaker 6

Also, you can see the gradually growing investments to renewables and low carbon as we have planned. For 2024, we guide on an organic CapEx of around $13,000,000,000 Empire Wind in New York will now be fully consolidated into our accounts, and it will increase our reported CapEx by around $1,200,000,000 in 20.24 and SEK 1,500,000,000 the year after. So that asset is this is fully reflected in our CapEx guidance with 100 percent ownership in that asset. The development of Empire Wind is subject to a positive result in the 4th bid round in New York. For 'twenty five to 'twenty seven, we expect annual CapEx of $14,000,000,000 to $15,000,000,000 on average.

Speaker 6

However, keep in mind, for the Empire Wind project, we intend to use project financing, And we aim to farm down at the right time. And this would lead to reduction in CapEx. So we have significant CapEx flexibility with more than half of our CapEx linked to non sanctioned projects from 2025 going forward. And we operate most of our investments ourselves. So that is 2,030.

Speaker 6

As you have heard from Anders, we see cash flow growth towards 2,035. Oil and Gas continues to deliver around $20,000,000,000 per year, And we aim to double the cash flow from renewables and low carbon to more than $6,000,000,000 And as we grow and transition, we will have value over volume front and center and the aim for a return on capital employed of 15% in 2,035. So we have an attractive oil and gas project portfolio with low breakevens, Around $35 per barrel, high returns, 30% IRR, Short payback time, 2.5 years and a low carbon intensity of less than 6 kilo per barrel. We work with our partners and suppliers to drive down cost and improve the project. And as you know, we will not sanction projects unless they are good enough.

Speaker 6

So we have been able to keep the breakeven at around $35 per barrel despite inflation. So this is driven by our people constantly chasing improvements. So take Rosebank as an example, where we have reduced FPSO cost by 50% and subsea and drilling cost by 40%. And Geir will give more details on this in the breakout session. Oil and gas is a large part of our future, and investments will be stable through the decades.

Speaker 6

Production is expected to be stable this year, but we expect to see more than 5% growth towards 2026. In 2030, our international production is expected to grow by around 100,000 barrels per day to around 800,000. And behind me here, you see the great Bacalhau FPSO. It will contribute well to the 50% growth in cash flow from the international portfolio. And Filip will speak more to this in the breakout session.

Speaker 6

And as you heard from Sjetil, we are determined to deliver production and cash flow all the way to 2,035 from the Norwegian continental shelf. Behind me, you can also see the expected allocation of capital between Norway and internationally and between existing fields and new fields. We also invest in abatement projects. Although relatively small in share, they will have a very large impact on the CO2 reductions. Now over to Renewables and Low Carbon Solutions.

Speaker 6

So today, I want to focus on How the $3,000,000,000 in cash flow is built up and the composition of the investment program. Our renewables and low carbon portfolio is now of a materiality, where we have line of sight to a significant cash flow in 2030 and beyond. So far, we have created values through cycle. We have grown as we have grown, we have accessed opportunities early. We have divested when prices were high, and we have maintained discipline.

Speaker 6

So our efforts are starting to pay off. And behind me, you see a list of key contributing assets. And based on the risking of that portfolio, we see a cash flow contribution of around $3,000,000,000 by 2,030. And we aim to more than double this by 2,035, as we have said. Paul and Irene will provide more details in their breakout session.

Speaker 6

Now to how we allocate CapEx. In 2023, 20% of our gross CapEx was towards these 2 businesses. And as we have said earlier, we aim to increase this to more than 30% in 2025 and to more than 50% by 2,030. It is important to note that this is gross CapEx, and it includes project financing in joint ventures, which is not included in the accounts. So our organic net CapEx or reported CapEx, reported CapEx, as we can call it, will be significantly lower as indicated on this slide.

Speaker 6

We remain value focused and disciplined. So today, we are presenting the capital distribution program for 2024, giving more predictability and a way towards a more effective capital structure. So Anders presented the main elements. In total, the program sums up to $14,000,000,000 in 2024 and $8,000,000,000 to $10,000,000,000 in 2025. The extraordinary cash dividend is based on past earnings, And we intend to continue with ZAR0.35 for the 1st 3 quarters of 2024.

Speaker 6

But after that, we expect to conclude the use of extraordinary cash dividend. For share buyback, we present a 2 year program of SEK 10,000,000,000 to SEK 12,000,000,000 in total. The first tranche of SEK 1,200,000,000 We'll start tomorrow based on the existing approval that has been given from the AGM. We have been clear that we intend to use capital distribution as a tool to achieve a more effective capital structure. So this capital distribution program translates into a total yield of around 17% based on current share price.

Speaker 6

So before I conclude, let me go over our formal guiding. For 2024, we expect organic net CapEx of around $13,000,000,000 and a stable oil and gas production for the year, impacted by divestments in Azerbaijan and Nigeria and higher planned turnarounds. For renewables, we expect to double our production. So to sum up, so I hope That we have shown you that we are in a very good position to deliver a stronger and growing cash flow all the way to 2,035 from a broader portfolio with lower emissions, while we maintain a strong return on capital employed and while we will provide you with a competitive capital distribution. So thank you very much.

Speaker 6

And then I hand it back to you, Borrd, to guide us through the Q and A session. So thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Torgrim, and thank you also to Anders Kjetil and Herge, Anders will also join on stage here for the Q and A session. And then The executive team is here on the first row and can also take questions. I ask that you use the microphone when you Ask questions and that you introduce yourself also for the benefit of those following the webcast. I have had no success in the past by asking you to limit yourself to one question. So therefore, I ask at least that you try to limit yourself to So then we are ready to go.

Speaker 1

Maybe Oswald, Clint from Bernstein, you want to start?

Speaker 7

Oswald, Clint of Bernstein. Two questions, please. First one, I just want to go through your gas price assumptions, please. Your $13 Next 2 years then $9 thereafter and the low case is even $8.06 So You guys are experts in natural gas markets. I think the market is probably worried that prices could go a lot lower, especially in that thereafter bucket.

Speaker 7

So just talk about your views now. You talked about Germany, the big contract, the biggest contract. So is there anything structurally different as you think about Gas prices through this next 3 to 5 year period, please. Secondly, interesting you're stretching out to 2,035 When others are contracting to 2025, but this great chart of NCS Norway is quite surprising, especially with the improved oil and gas recovery plus the ILX. I mean, I thought ILX was mostly done.

Speaker 7

I thought we played that card Last decade, improved recovery, nor is the leader globally. Quite surprised to see so much In the presentation, especially around ocean bottom seismic, which has been around for a while. So maybe just talk more about the confidence here you have, what's changed and 37 prospects around Sleipner and Troll. Can you communicate the success around things like that potentially through the year, just to give us confidence? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Great questions. And I start a little bit on both of those, but I also want to bring in Irene on the gas And Cetil to continue bringing the confidence on the Norwegian continental shelf. But first of all, I found 2 very interesting data points recently in the gas market. And the first one is we have seen now really the demand going down with the increased prices and because of the Russian gas going out of the equation.

Speaker 2

But we see now that the industry demand for gas in Europe, in France And Germany is actually picking up. It was 10% increase over last year, seeing that the energy prices are not necessarily now hampering economic growth and the development of the industry. At the same time, we also see A 9% increase in the gas demand in China. And actually China now surpassed Europe in demand. So clearly, there are some kind of a turning point in terms of on demand that has been on decline for a while after the war.

Speaker 2

And then of course, we have all the weather and so on. So in Renen, we can say a little bit more about this with LNG and some of the recent development there. On the Norwegian continental shelf, ILX gone for no, it's not. And I think Norwegian continental shelf will surprise and surprise over the next years. Prolific basins tend to be prolific.

Speaker 2

And based on the knowledge and competence we have built up, actually the technology has been available, but the uses of the technology and the additional competence that our people bring in to interpret That seismic using AI to interpret it, finding the anomalies that the human eyes are missing, This is actually kind of creating the new opportunities. Then we have the tied them in to an existing platform. It's in a very efficient manner. So we think we can play this game for many, many, many years on the Norwegian continental shelf. And with the political support to continue with oil and gas, particularly exploration in Norway, Kjetil mentioned the recently awarded licenses, but also the new licenses round for next year is already announced.

Speaker 2

So there is a lot of positive news around that. But Irene and then Kjetil to follow-up a little bit.

Speaker 8

First of all, I think you noticed that our CEO is becoming an expert on the gas market for very good reasons, so I don't have a tremendous amount of insight To add. But I think for 2024, the weather scenario has sort of played out. We think this winter, as the last year's winter, are going to be among the top 5 warmest winters in the last 60 years of history or something. So And we'll go out of this winter season with storage at approximately 55% level. So we're sort of Good for 'twenty four.

Speaker 8

What we need to watch is what Anders rightly pointed out, it's Demand recovery, we've seen some positive signs, but even more important, the demand recovery or growth in Asia. LNG is clearly going to be the price setter for the gas market in the foreseeable future. And the growth in Asia is significantly bigger than what we can expect in Asia. We're going to run into a period, I guess in 'twenty six, 'twenty seven, with a lot of new LNG coming to the market from Qatar and the U. S, It's a bit of a tough period, I think, for the gas market.

Speaker 8

And there is some nervousness around that period, which we also indicate, I guess, in the material that we have presented to you. And then of course, there's the Biden decision to pause LNG projects. It's Hard to say what really the underlying driver for that decision is, but we do expect that there will be a real pause and There'll be a delay in some of the projects that are meant to come into the market in an oversupply period. They will come a little bit later and probably match demand better. So all in all, I think the outcome of that is not too bad for the global supply demand balances.

Speaker 3

Yes, I could cover a bit on the NCS. Our outlook for 2,035 on the NCS is basically built on 3 pillars. It's the huge project which I talked about, more than 50 projects, that's the main chunk of the outlook for towards 2,035. But then on the increased recovery, yes, we have been able to lift from 30 to 50 on average, but there is still potential there. So we see that we every year are able to mature at least 50 to 70 wells to be drilled on the NCS, and we expect to deliver that this decade as well.

Speaker 3

So yes, we have lifted it to 50,000,000, but there still is quite a huge potential left on our recovery. On the exploration in ILX, we have just started. We see that we consistently are able to deliver from our ILX portfolio. Last year, we had 12 discoveries and we expect that, that we should be able to continue with. And we see based on the new technology that we utilize that we see these small pockets much better than we did just a couple of years ago.

Speaker 3

It's based on what we have been able to achieve the last 10 years and what we are able to see in the seismic. So we have just started on the ILECs on the

Speaker 1

Very good. Thank you very much. Let's take Teodor. Did you raise your hand for a question? No?

Speaker 1

If you could keep your hands up a little bit, I'm better, yes. Please

Speaker 6

go, Bjorn.

Speaker 9

Teodor Nijsens, Paribas, World Markets. First on the balance sheet, it's still very, very strong, 22% net cash capital employed. And you said, Torgrim, that you expect to have net cash flow, 0 net cash by year end, but that's still not the long term guidance of 15% to 30% net debt to capital employed. So why do you spend so long time to get the balance sheet in sync with your official guidance? First question.

Speaker 9

And the second question is looking back to the Capital Markets update last year. Key message was that You wanted to focus on value over volume. Now you decided to invest in Empire Wind at 4% IRR. Why has volume become more important than value the past 12 months?

Speaker 6

You can start with the net debt ratio. Okay. Thanks, Thierry. So in 20 23, we planned for a negative cash flow of $8,000,000,000 and it actually ended with a negative cash flow of $8,000,000,000 for the year. With the program for this year, we're actually planning for a negative free cash flow of minus $10,000,000,000 If you do the math, which is actually going to bring the net debt to a positive territory.

Speaker 6

So this is actually a very rapid direction towards a different and a more efficient capital structure. The 15% to 30% net debt is not sort of a target in itself. It is a guiding on what we find is a natural level and a good capital structure for a company like ours. We have operated above and below for many, many years. Over time, we want to move in that direction.

Speaker 6

And with the $8,000,000,000 to $10,000,000,000 capital distribution we suggest for next year, it will move sort of in that direction. Then I just want to remind us that we are living in a very, very volatile world. We had our best results in 2022, and we had our worst results in 2020. And we need to be prepared for that. So I am Okay and happy to operate below that range, but clearly we want to move towards it over time.

Speaker 2

And to be very clear, value over volume is still our guidance, both for oil and gas and also for Renewables. Moving forward with Empire, after the deal we did with BP is what we see is Creating the best value for Equinor. We are within the guidance range, both on forward looking, but also on fuel cycles, if we take into account the recent transactions we have done there. Now we are waiting for the results from the bid, as Torgrim said. And we will, at the right time, find another partner, and we will project finance this.

Speaker 2

And as Heger also alluded to on Dogger Bank, we are working on increasing the lifetime of Offshore Wind Park. So we will create more and more value over time as well. So this is the best way we can create value from the Empire project in our mind.

Speaker 1

Very good. Next one is Chris Kuplent, Bank of America. Then afterwards, we take one on the line.

Speaker 10

Thank you very much. I've got 2 questions, probably both for you, Torgrim, and you can categorize them under the topic of cash flow cushions. And I want to look back a little bit. You said in your remarks that the €20,000,000,000 CFFO for 2023 came in line with what you told us about 12 months ago, which is true. But I think 12 months ago, you were expecting production growth to be 3% In 2023, you were, I think, using $20 per MBtu of gas price assumptions, certainly a level that we didn't see In 2023.

Speaker 10

So I wonder how much contingency was included? Or maybe you can give us a little bit of a bridge In terms of pluses and minuses, why you nevertheless ended up at $20,000,000,000 CFFO. And the second cushion that I'm keen on talking about is On CapEx, Empire Wind, you highlighted, is now included for 2024 at 1,200,000,000. And that means if I take that out, the CapEx, dollars 13,000,000,000 minus $1,200,000,000 looks like, again, towards the very low end of your previous CapEx guidance. So maybe you can tell us whether there was some project slippage that pushed CapEx perhaps further to the right as well.

Speaker 6

Okay. No, thanks, Chris. Thank you for the detailed question on 2023 because it gives me an opportunity to give a little bit more color to it because it was 19.7 as we reported. If we sort of apply the price assumptions that we used, it would have been 20.5 So it actually like for like, it would have been SEK 20.5 billion. And then There has been some slippage in some of the production during the year.

Speaker 6

So I mean, in general terms, when we put forward numbers, clearly, they are very important to us. We commit to them. And then we want to remain sure that we can deliver. So there will always be a certain time or a certain part of the periphery in what we put forward. That is just the way companies work.

Speaker 6

The second point is the CapEx.

Speaker 2

The CapEx. And you rightly say, we've been around 11.8. And then last year, we said 13, but back end loaded. So we are actually very close to what we indicated last year with 13% back end loaded and 11 point So there is not necessarily kind of any particular project slippage into this. Actually, the guided CapEx last year and this year is in line with each other when you take away the empire.

Speaker 1

Let's take one question on the line, please.

Speaker 11

Biraj Borkhatia from RBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Hi. Thanks for taking my question and sorry I can't be there. So my first question is just following up on Empire Wind. Your CapEx guidance you said does not assume the project financing. Can you just Give some details on where you'd expect that to be finalized and broadly speaking, what proportion of the CapEx that you typically project finance for wind?

Speaker 12

And then the second question is on M and A and inorganic opportunities. A few years ago, you put out plans to effectively simplify Your international portfolio and exit from the tail. But there's been some interesting and exciting exploration success in places like Namibia, and you'll see players there that may be underfunded. So I was wondering your thoughts on your willingness to look at inorganic opportunities outside of the 3 key countries and the international portfolio you highlighted in the past? Thank you.

Speaker 2

I had a little bit difficult here. I

Speaker 6

can take the first one, which is more a technical question related to how we book And how we treat Empire Wind in our books, I mean, it used to be equity accounted because we owned only 50% out of it. So it was only the equity part of our investment That was on our balance sheet and also only part of the only the equity cash in the future earnings report. Now we have to consolidate it fully in the books and also have 100% in. So it's actually a significant change in the way sort of it is reported. When the project financing is in place, and we expect that package to be in place late this year, We will still have to report it 100% and consolidated until we have farmed down to a lower level.

Speaker 6

So in isolation, it won't impact the reported CapEx until we have reduced the ownership share. I hope that answers your question, Biraj. Yes.

Speaker 2

And if I understood the questions Correctly regarding M and A, it was about an international business. We have high graded the portfolio there over the last few years, exited several countries. And this actually enables the together with the project sanction that We have mentioned that will give the 50% increase in cash flow from 2023 to 2,030. We will continue to high grade the portfolio going forward, but we will not comment on any future M and As either divestment or acquisitions.

Speaker 1

Very good. Let's take the next one from Martin Ratz, Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 13

Yes, hi. Hello, Ed. I also had 2 questions, if I may. One relates to Exhibit 30, the one that shows CFFO For 2024, 2025 to 27 and then the outer period at different price scenarios. And if you look at that exhibit carefully, If we go from 2024 to 2025, 2027, the $55 scenario goes up, the $75 scenario goes up, But the $95 scenario goes down.

Speaker 13

And I was wondering if there is something in that period that I'm missing. It sort of the exhibit implies that The company's CFFO becomes substantially less oil price sensitive, but I can't imagine that, that is really the message behind the chart. So slightly more of a technical point perhaps, but I wanted to ask that. The second question I want to ask is somewhat different. When a company gives sort of guidance over the next sort of 4 to 5 years, it's usually an outcome of, well, the projects that are in front of them and the business that's going on.

Speaker 13

But when the Guidance becomes much longer, sort of like 10, 11, 12 years. It's often more of a sort of statement of intent, of a direction of travel that the company sort of aspires to rather than the business that's right in front of them. If you look at the DD and A and the capital employed, Your entire capital employed will turn over, over the next decade. So in a decade from now, there's a lot of choice still to be made. So I was wondering, By 2,035, the guidance now implies that somewhere between 75% to 80% of CFFO will still be oil and gas.

Speaker 13

So I was wondering to what extent that is an outcome of simply the projects that you see to and to what extent it's sort of Like an aspiration, more like an intent to travel in that direction?

Speaker 7

I can take the first one.

Speaker 2

You take the first

Speaker 6

one, which is a technical question, Martin. And it is actually the tax lag that drives this, the tax lag on the Norwegian continental shelf. So in 2024, you only have half of the tax associated with the €95,000,000 while the year after, you have 1.5x the tax of the NOK 95. So this is it is a truly technical question, and the answer is a truly technical one, Martin. So that's the reason.

Speaker 2

Okay. So when it comes to the 2025 intent or projection, It's really based on the project portfolio that we do have in place and all the opportunity sets We do have on the Norwegian continental shelf. So if we take it a little bit first for the EPI, it's really the 3 projects that I mentioned, The Bacalau, the Raya, there's Barta and Rosebank, 4, I am sorry. And we also have Baidu Noor as a future project. So the projection there is really based on these real projects.

Speaker 2

When it comes to the Norwegian Continental Shelf, it is the long projects list of non sanctioned projects, more than 30 projects That already, Chedi, he knows about this project. He's going to develop them. He's going to go to Geir and say, I want them. I want them below $35 in breakeven. And he also we know from experience that the ILX will give good results going forward.

Speaker 2

So it's not only a projection. It's actually based on actions we already taken. It's the seismic that Hege alluded to that is already acquired, being interpreted and new targets coming in place. So that's why we were able to extend this to 2,035 this year. At the same time, we also demonstrate, and you'll find it in the appendix, a long list of renewable projects and low carbon solution projects yet to be sanctioned, yet to be find the profitability and for some of these projects customers, but then we also balance this with the flexibility in carpet.

Speaker 2

So it's really based on the portfolio that we do have at hand.

Speaker 14

Thank you very much. It's Paul Redman from BNP Paribas. And I've got 2 questions. The first is just going back to Empire Wind and following on from Biraj's question. Essentially, You're saying that you can increase the returns through project financing and farm downs.

Speaker 14

I want to ask what your current view of those markets are at the moment. So in terms of timing On when you could do those and the CapEx could come down, what are your current expectations? And I see that in and I think I'm right, in your Guidance on renewable returns, you're talking about 12% to 16%, but I don't think you include Empire Wind in that. I just want to confirm that. And then the second one is

Speaker 7

just you've given yourself a

Speaker 14

bit of flex on the buyback, dollars 10,000,000,000 to $12,000,000,000 What drives the upside on buyback? And when we get to 2025, If you're at 15% gearing or the lower level of your optimized balance sheet guidance, where would you expect distributions to go after that? Could you see more extraordinary in 2025 plus?

Speaker 2

Okay. Paul, you can say a little bit about the market as you see it. You are out there Every day and if I just before Paul starts, if I understand your question correctly, you talked about the 12% to 16% return on Equity for renewables. That is based on, as an example, it's the Dogge Bank and it's our solar plants in Europe that we have seen those type of returns. But if you look back For the whole renewable portfolio from 2015 to 2023, we have double digit return nominal on our portfolio.

Speaker 2

Paul, will you

Speaker 15

So I'll leave it to Torgrim to comment on the financing part of it. But on the Down market, we're seeing now projects because of the challenges on both sides of the Atlantic, we're seeing fewer projects on the U. S. East Coast. Empire 1 is by far one of the most mature projects that are available in the sense that it has 4 years of permitting work behind it.

Speaker 15

It has all of the main contracts secured with negotiated rates, so we have fairly good line of sight to what the cost level will be. So I'm quite hopeful that we will be able to find a good partner and that this is an attractive asset also because it is among the few that can develop in of a pre-two thousand and thirty perspective. And I'll just build a little bit on the answer you gave earlier on this. What we faced in last year, we saw that The unprecedented macro and inflation that came, we saw that it was eroding profitability of our portfolio. We have canceled the offtake contract for Empire 2.

Speaker 15

We have done the swap with BPs. We have effectively reset and high graded that portfolio And we now have line of sight to positive economics going forward, provided we can succeed in the New York 4 bid, where we have bid on a level which we think or hope will be competitive, but at the same time can help restore economics to Empire Wind 1.

Speaker 6

Yes. On your question on project financing or refinancing package, that is progressing. And this is a big financing package naturally in the U. S. It is complex, But it is progressing well, and we aim to sign the Odua Financial Close not very long after an investment decision.

Speaker 6

So it will come pretty close to each other. I think it's very important on your point, Paul, that De risking this project will create value. And sort of clearly, winning a New York Phase 1 is sort of derisking one level. Having a final investment is the second. Having a financial package on is a third one.

Speaker 6

So the more we derisk, the more buyers there will be and the more attractive prices we can achieve. So that's the way of thinking around when potentially to create value from that asset.

Speaker 2

What's the second question?

Speaker 6

There were 2 more. You had 4 questions. Yes, buyback and also distribution, yes. Okay. So 2 year program of share buyback, 10% to 12%, 6% this year, meaning between 4% and 6% next year.

Speaker 6

So we have given ourselves a little bit of flexibility. When that is said, We have tested what we put forward across a broad set of price assumption and all of that. And we are very, very committed to honor that. So between 4% and 6%, it will be. There was one more here on the It was The 2015,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,

Speaker 2

What we have presented today is the range for 2024 and 2025, and we will come back to this in due time.

Speaker 1

I have to ask now that we limit to one question because I have several on the list and we will start with 1 on the line.

Speaker 11

John Olaisen, ABG. Yes, thanks for taking my question. I wonder what kind of IRR should we expect for the next few renewable projects that you will be announcing? I guess, what I'm really wondering about is if you are willing to take on more new big wind projects, for instance, in the 30 and Oslo 2

Speaker 1

If you were able to hear it, if not we will try to get it and then we'll take another.

Speaker 2

I think I heard it. We have guided On a real unlevered guided range of 4% to 8%, and this is what we do when we prioritize project, And we're using that for our capital discipline.

Speaker 1

Okay. But

Speaker 11

the Empire Wind is only 4% to 5% returns. I just wonder if you prioritize the best project first And the first project at 45%, should what should we expect for the next few projects that you will be announcing? Will you be willing to take on Still to take will you take on the low end of your guidance return projects?

Speaker 2

I'm a little bit sure. And did you hear the question, Torbjorn?

Speaker 6

I think, John, you asked about If we are accepting Empire Wind, does it mean that the rest are below that in return type of question? And I can assure that this is not the way our project portfolio worked, that these things move around on this level. I think the Empire Wind project, 4% to 8% forward looking economics is clearly what we aim for and clearly important that we need to see that. I think also in order life cycle economics of the U. S.

Speaker 6

Project taking into account the divestment to BP will also bring this into the range. So I mean clearly, we would have liked to see better returns, and we are sure that we are going to create some additional returns from that project as we go. Beyond that in the project portfolio, there is actually a healthy return in the offshore wind portfolio.

Speaker 16

It's Peter Low from Redburn Atlantic. Yes, so it's a question on the 2,030 Cash flow guidance, you made the point that, that has increased versus last year. Can you just run through where those increases have come from? Because it

Speaker 2

So you're asking about the increase in cash flow from operation in 2,030?

Speaker 6

That's right.

Speaker 2

Yes. So basically what we do now is to invest in oil and gas. This will give $20,000,000,000 Cash flow from operation on average all the way to 2,030. We're investing on top of our investments in oil and gas into renewables and low carbon Solutions and the $3,000,000,000 increase in cash flow from operation after tax in 2,030 will come from the Renewable business and the low carbon solution. And I think in one of the slides for to Torgrim, He indicated also some of the projects that will contribute in this.

Speaker 1

I will go Johan Charlton from Societe Generale.

Speaker 17

Thank you. Joanne Charlton from Societe Generale. A quick question on distributions, if I may. You are providing Transparently, the 3 scenarios that you use, but you tend to focus on the central scenario. And did I hear correctly during the presentation that based on the base case scenario for Commodity prices, you don't expect any potential for continuation of the extraordinary cash dividends beyond what has been announced today In the future and when it comes to buyback, do we need to see basically TTF prices close to what is shown on this base case scenario for you to be able to deliver on the €10,000,000,000 to €12,000,000,000 share buyback program in the coming 2 years.

Speaker 2

Okay. So we are today providing a very competitive capital distribution, where we increase The ordinary cash dividend with 17%. Based on the outlook we are providing with growth in cash flow over the next year. And we also for the first time are very clear on our intention to grow this over time. As Torgrim said a little bit earlier today, the extraordinary dividend, it's based on past earnings.

Speaker 2

And we will have EUR0.35 this quarter and the next 3 consecutive quarters, but we will conclude this after the Q3 2024. When it comes to the guidance or the share buyback of USD10 1,000,000,000 to USD12 1,000,000,000 We have tested this in a different price scenario. So we are very confident that we will deliver this. This range is based on the outlook, but also the strong confidence we have in our execution capabilities.

Speaker 1

Lydia Winford from Barclays, please.

Speaker 5

Thank you. And so just following up on that. Is the idea that The cash returns now are independent for the next 2 years of where the oil prices and gas prices are? Or is there some volatility there? And then secondly, sorry, Fahd, But the idea of you give me 2,030 international production, but I couldn't see 2,035 international production.

Speaker 5

So and obviously, the business will become less NCS and more international, more low carbon. Does that present any kind of cultural or organizational

Speaker 2

So Filip, you want I wanted to allude a little bit on the international portfolio, particularly the growth to 2,030, but also how it will evolve after 2,035. And I have to admit, I forgot your first question now. What we have presented is increased predictability in the capital distribution, meaning that we will grow the dividend with $0.02 In addition, we will deliver the share buyback of $10,000,000,000 to 12,000,000,000 U. S. Dollar with $6,000,000,000 for 2024.

Speaker 2

That we are really confident on. Can you

Speaker 18

hear me? Yes. On the international portfolio, so we have 2 peers. The growth to 2,030, 50% CFFO growth. Beyond that, to 2,035, we're kind of looking at CFFO level more or less stabilized at the 2,030 level.

Speaker 18

The growth we're talking about in terms of to 2,030 is we call it quality growth. It's all about the high grading of the portfolio. Think about the divestments we did, the acquisition of Suncor in the U. K, the FIDs we've been taking on the project, all of that results in 2 things: 1, an increase in production of 100,000 between 20 4,030, that contributes to part of the CFFO increase, but the main part of the CFFO increase is coming from the increased quality we have in the portfolio. So basically, through these high gradings, We are shifting and replacing the legacy mature assets with next generation assets.

Speaker 18

And these assets are generating more CFFO per barrel, and they have lower emission. And that is what's giving us, in totality, The $5 increase in CFFO per barrel from today to 2,030.

Speaker 2

And then Your last question about being a broader company, what does it mean for the internal employees, the culture? We see that it's really the people that started in oil and gas that is now developing both the offshore wind, but also the CCS and the hydrogen. It's the same skill set you basically need for transportation and storage of CO2. You need Rest of our engineers, geologists, petrophysicist, I'm a former petrophysicist, I'm very happy about that. You need the pipeline engineers, etcetera.

Speaker 2

But at the same time, as we broaden out, we will do different things. We will do Work differently across the company. So then it's really important to make sure that we are talking the same language, We have the same purpose, turning natural resources into energy for people and progress to society. That really creates the proudness in the company And that we're actually depending independent of where we work in the company, we are actually working towards the same purpose. And this is What we're working on and we see actually when Aksel is recruiting and we have recruited more than 4,000 people over the last years It's really being a part of a company where you can be a part of the energy transition that attracts new young people.

Speaker 1

Thank you for that. We are now well on overtime. And the list keeps Becoming longer even as we take so what I will ask you to do is to take your questions to the breakout sessions. Anders and Torgrim We'll also be in one of the breakout sessions and the remaining questions we can take there. Then just thank you for your attendance and your engagement in this plenary session.

Speaker 1

We will move now towards the breakout sessions. And I just ask you to Exit through these stores, go to the left through the corridor and then to the left again. Those of you who have signed up for the breakouts, You have a letter on your badge, A, B or C, and that is the room where you will start. And then the EVPs will rotate between the rooms, so that you have the opportunity to ask questions to all of them. So with that, we say thank you all for joining this event and see you then in the breakout sessions.

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Key Takeaways

  • Equinor reported $36 billion in adjusted earnings for 2023—its second-best ever—delivering 25% return on capital employed and around $20 billion in cash flow from operations after tax and distributions.
  • On track for its 2030 ambitions, Equinor allocated 20% of 2023 CapEx to renewables/low carbon (target 30% by 2025, 50% by 2030), and expects annual oil & gas cash flow of ~$20 billion to 2035, with renewables adding $3 billion in 2030 rising to $6 billion in 2035.
  • The company targets a 40% net carbon intensity reduction by 2035, underpinned by electrification of Norwegian Continental Shelf assets, halving operational emissions by 2030, and securing 30–50 Mt/year of CO₂ storage capacity.
  • Equinor’s Norwegian Continental Shelf pipeline includes 21 approved projects (breakevens <$35/bbl), over 30 projects in maturation, and a stepped-up recovery effort—aiming for ~1.2 million bpd through 2035—supported by $300–400 million/year in R&D and AI-enhanced seismic imaging.
  • Capital distribution steps up: ordinary dividend raised 17% to $0.35/share, Q4 extraordinary $0.35/share, and a $10–12 billion share buyback program over 2024–25, with net debt guided toward 15–30% of capital employed.
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Earnings Conference Call
Equinor ASA Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00