ORIX Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 7, 2024

There are 2 speakers on the call.

Operator

It's time to start the meeting. Thank you for joining us for the 3rd conference of our Corporation for the 3rd quarter Financial Results for the 9 Months Ended December 31, 2023. I'm the MC. My name is Nakane from Arasustainability Department. Thank you for this opportunity.

Operator

The attendee at today's conference is Kazuki Yamamoto, In order to avoid feedback, if you have a communication device such as mobile phone nearby, please make sure that it's turned off or it is away from the telephone. Yamamoto will provide explanation followed by Q and A session, And we will spend approximately 1 hour for this meeting. Ms. Yamamoto, please start.

Speaker 1

Thank you for the introduction. Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for ORIX Group's earnings despite of your busy schedule today. Thank you very much indeed. My name is Kazuki Yamamoto, Head of Planning and Investment Relations and OREX.

Speaker 1

I have taken over this role from my predecessor, Mr. Hitomi Maroyano. Let me start with a brief explanation of q3 FY 'twenty four March results. Please turn to Page 2 for the executive summary. So there are 3 points that I would like to explain.

Speaker 1

The first is The 3rd quarter net income. Net income came in at JPY 91,100,000,000. Base profits rose in inbound tourism related businesses, their estate, Domestic PE Investment and Insurance allowing ORIX to post the 2nd highest levels of both base profits and segment profits in the 4 years since the start of the pandemic. Quarterly profits were the 2nd highest after the year in which gains on the Yayoi XA4 book. The second is Year to date net income for the 9 months ending December 2023, net income rose 3% year over year to JPY 219,200,000,000.

Operator

As we discussed

Speaker 1

in the first half results briefing, we expected that most of the realization of capital gains would come in the latter half of FY 'twenty for March end. We're continuing to make steady progress in realizing this investment gains in numbers of deals which are currently under negotiation, which should allow us attain our full year net income target of JPY 330,000,000,000 which was left unchanged. So the third point is shareholders' return. In May of last year, Orbix approved a share buyback program of JPY 50,000,000,000. We have executed the full amount of the program and retired a total of 19,89,000 shares.

Speaker 1

There are no changes to our dividend policy, which was announced back in May. Now please turn to the next page. Net income for the 9 months ended December 2023 rose 3% year over year to JPY 219,200,000,000 with annualized ROE for the same period Coming in at 8%. The right hand chart shows Trends in quarterly net income and ROE for the past 4 years. ORIX achieved its 2nd highest ever quarterly net income since the start of the pandemic In the Q3 of 91,900,000,000 yen, an increase of 40% Q on Q, the ROE in the chart in certain annualized net income for each quarter, which improved to 9.7% in the 3rd quarter.

Speaker 1

So we should be able to achieve the full year target So that we'll be able to achieve our target for the ROE for the year. Please turn to Page 4. Here, I will discuss the breakdown of segment profits. Segment profits for the 9 months ended December 2023 rose 9% year over year to JPY 319,200,000,000. The chart on the bottom of the slide show historical trends in segment profits on a full year, quarterly 9 months basis from left to right.

Speaker 1

The dark blue is base profit, while the light blue is investment gains. Please refer to the far right chart of 3rd quarter year to date 9 months performance. Base profits in dark blue rose 16% year over year to JPY268,800,000,000. In addition to a recovery in businesses related to inbound tourism, expansion in investment income in the insurance segment and higher domestic PE earnings contributed to this year over year declined to JPY 50,400,000,000, but RX posted investment gains From real estate and PE exit in the 3rd quarter of 26,900,000,000 yen multiplying this figure by 4 equals more than JPY 100,000,000,000 in investment gains. In fact, as shown in the chart, the amount consistently averaged more than JPY 100,000,000,000 for the 1st 5 years.

Speaker 1

As I mentioned earlier, we are aggressively moving towards forward with exits during the second half. Now please turn to Page 5 and Page 6. These pages outline profits and assets by segment. ORIX domestic businesses were strong and are on track to meet their full year targets. Overseas businesses saw profits fall owing to the impact of elevated interest rates and our stance of limiting risks considering economic uncertainty.

Speaker 1

That said, we think it is necessary to continue to carefully watch the timing where interest rates and economic climate will bottom out. Now as shown on Page 6, Some segment posted growth in assets due to foreign impacts, new ITE Investment, Insurance, Reflecting higher securities investment and greater investment in aircraft and leases in Asia and Australia. A detailed overview of trends in each segment will be shared later. Now the what has contributed 2, the base profit were airbag concessions and the facilities operations. Please turn to Page 7.

Speaker 1

The chart shows segment profit trends For Oryx's 3 COVID impacted businesses, Concession Facilities Operations and Aircraft Ships. The left shows a full year segment profit, While the right shows quarterly trends, total segment profits for the 3 businesses for the 9 month period were 26,600,000,000 yen up by JPY 17,700,000,000 year over year. Even though there is still 1 quarter left in the fiscal year, these businesses have recovered by about JPY 50,000,000,000 from the worst period of losses marked during the pandemic. Although there are some seasonal fluctuations, Steady growth should allow us to achieve additional expansion on a way to recovery to the 70,000,000,000 yen in annual segment profit. Now inbound traffic from all countries and regions excluding China continues in an upward trend.

Speaker 1

Airport concessions returned to the black ink in 2nd quarter and profits continue to expand in the 3rd quarter. In December last year, Kansai International Airport opened its new international terminal departure area, which it had been working on during COVID closures. This is this leads to Large scale renovation of the airport scheduled for completion in spring 2025. The airport is taking measures such as increasing smart lane baggage inspection facilities in an effort to combat Labor shortages and ongoing expansion in NIM tourism should lead to further growth in ORIX Group's earnings. Now by the way, Kansai Airport's earnings are included in ORIX consolidated earnings with a 3 month lag.

Speaker 1

So the 3rd quarter figures represent July, September 2023 numbers. Now please turn to Page 8. In aircraft leasing, these fees are continuing to rise As passenger demand in the U. S. And Europe is at the record high levels, Airline earnings recovery and tight supply demand for aircraft.

Speaker 1

Although dollar based interest rates are pushing capital costs higher, There is strong demand in the secondary market for aircraft purchases and the 3 types of fee income. These revenue gains on the sales of aircraft management fees are all rising. In the Facilities Operations segment, We have endeavored to raise RevPAR by delivering superior services to our customers and maintaining high post COVID occupancy rates. As a result, in December 2023, RevPAR stood at 138% of the 2019 level for directly operated hotels and at 128% for in. As shown in the slide, segment profits for the 9 months ending December 2023 in the Facilities Operation business was JPY 7,700,000,000 already higher than the JPY 5,600,000,000 for the full year of 2020 March end.

Speaker 1

We believe further profit growth remains possible as we see room for additional hikes in RevPAR and should benefit from the 2nd block of our new luxury Karaku brand, which opened at end of 2023. Now please turn to Page 9. Next, I will share the progress we made with the results for the Q3 versus the full year target using There are 4 categories we started to employ last fiscal year. Within Japan, segment profits in both the financial and non financial category businesses were up year over year, Making strong progress versus our full year targets, in particular, domestic nonfinancial businesses were helped both by inland related demand And the real estate segment with strong demand for properties from overseas investors fueled by yen's weaknesses led to property sales. For this reason, It could overshoot our full year target for the category.

Speaker 1

Now the overseas segments saw profits decline owing to an absence of investment gains booked on the sales Our partial stake in OMAD in the Environment and Energy segment in the previous fiscal year and higher euro Interest rates, while we have some distance from meeting our full year targets, we will focus on building up earnings while continuing to control risks. Moreover, assets in these regions remain healthy. Please note that ORIX U. S. A.

Speaker 1

Has very little exposure either direct or indirect to commercial real estate. International market in the aircraft and ships remains strong, and we aim to continue to grow our earnings through capital recycling. As for the baseball club, the posting fee From Pitcher Yoshinobi Yamamoto's transfer was booked as pretax earnings in the other non payment segment area. Please refer to Page 10. Our expected net income of JPY 219.2 billion for the 9 months ended December 2023, representing very good results of 66 percent towards our target of JPY 330,000,000,000.

Speaker 1

In order to achieve this target, ORIX will need to book net income of JPY 110,800,000,000 on pretax profits of JPY 165,000,000,000 in the 4th quarter. In addition to growth in base profits, we are moving steadily forward with several deals, which are in the negotiation phases with buyers and aim to achieve our full year earnings targets. Regarding shareholder returns, Our DPS plans remain unchanged at either JPY85.6 per share or a payout ratio of 33%, whichever is higher. This translates to DPS of JPY 94 If we achieve our FY 'twenty four margin net income target of 330,000,000,000 yen, as mentioned earlier, we completed our entire share buyback program of JPY 50,000,000,000 and of which Some has already been canceled. Regarding our FY 'twenty five margin net income target of 400,000,000,000 yen, The global macroeconomic climate has changed significantly since our initial outlook.

Speaker 1

So we will discuss the path towards achieving this target and specific measures as part of our FY 2025 Margin Business Planning Processes. Regarding our view on monetary policy and its impact, we think there is a I would like to take this opportunity to share. We think there is a possibility that negative yen interest rates could end in Japan around spring, which will push up The interest rate upward. Higher yen interest rate should positively impact ORIX Group earnings, particularly at ORIX Bank and in the insurance segment. However, we expect only a gradual pace to interest rate hikes.

Speaker 1

And therefore, Please note, we have no plans to change our current portfolio strategy or SOAP policies. We expect cuts in U. S. Dollar interest rate to start around summer. Lower U.

Speaker 1

S. Dollar interest rates should provide support to expansion in earnings, particularly, ORIX USA's Real Estate and PE Businesses. Lower euro interest rate would help reduce hedging costs for ORIX Europe and positive for recycling activities for renewable energy projects at Elavon. So dollar and yen's interest rate decline would be supportive to the strategy of OpEx in many of the times.

Operator

I would like to continue with the status of each segment. First, Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing. Please turn to Page 12. For the 9 months ended December 23, the segment profit was up 2% year on year at JPY 59,200,000,000. Profits were higher in Corporate Financial Services, thanks to solid earnings in fee related businesses and profit contribution from M and A and T Mobility Services.

Operator

In auto, rental car demand remains strong and the prices for used autos continue to trend at high levels. In addition, Policy of prioritizing more profitable business during sales activities has yielded results, pushing the auto business to its 3rd year in a row of record profits by end of Q3, and the segment is poised to post record profits for the full year again. Assets are flat overall with assets in Corporate Financial Services slightly lower and rental car fleet inside Auto Division being renewed. Please turn to Page 14. This is the Real Estate segment.

Operator

Segment profits were up 110% year on year to JPY 51,400,000,000 for the 1st 9 months. Investments and Facilities segment realized a large investment gain in Q3, resulting in the substantial increase in profits year on year. DAIKYO Profits have grown year on year for 3 consecutive quarters, Contributing to the segment's sharp increase in profits. We are proactively selling properties in the asset recycling business like logistic centers and also initiating new development projects in carefully selected areas. And DAIKYO continues to acquire sites in favorable areas.

Operator

And all in all, the segment assets increased by JPY 70,600,000,000 This is the end of the prior year. We will continue this business model to invest in high potential projects and turning them possible. Please turn to Page 16 for the Investment and Procession. Segment profits rose 35% year on year to JPY 23,000,000,000. The PE Investment achieved profit gains on the back of exits during Q3 and also thanks to profit contribution from DHC, which we invested in the prior fiscal year and the profit From concession is increasing.

Operator

As with the real estate, our first aim is rapid return to pre COVID profit levels. And our approach is working, which is investment made during the Pandemic period. Segment assets were up JPY 195,400,000,000 versus the prior year end. Golding LP Investment and Metairie Finance Inc. To Toshiba.

Operator

Please turn to Page 18. Segment profit was down by 38% year on year to JPY 19,800,000,000. Excluding the impact of last year's gain on sale of our Partial Omad stake, profits were up year on year. The bottom left graph shows the segment profits. In the domestic business, profits for the 9 months was steady on year, although output caps for solar power generation in some regions impacted earnings in the Q1.

Operator

High number of sunny days from Q2 offset this negative impact, and the profit from overseas Energy Business were lower year on year, owing to the absence of the year earlier gains and the higher hedging cost of overseas investment as a result of elevated euro interest rates. Meanwhile, Elavon's power sales volume increased, thanks to higher generating capacity. Last year, a major renewable energy company decided to withdraw from an offshore wind project. However, we still see strong demand for renewable energy worldwide. This business is positioned as a growth driver, And we will utilize our experience both overseas and in Japan to originate new opportunities.

Operator

Moving on to Insurance segment on Page 20. Segment profits were up 101% to JPY 53,400,000,000. COVID related insurance payouts From last year, sale and higher investment income helped the segment post sharply higher profits. Premium income, mostly from whole life insurance, was also healthy. Segment assets rose by JPY 155,300,000,000 owing to an increase in investment securities and impact of FX.

Operator

Please turn to Page 22. Banking and Credit segment. Segment profits were up 8%, JPY 26,900,000,000. In Banking, profits were up year on year. Earnings from real estate investment loan grew on the back of higher long term interest rates, while the increase in deposit interest was kept at a certain level.

Operator

In addition, ORIX Bank continues to grow its trust assets and higher earnings from Trust Banking also contributed. Earnings in the credit unit were flat year on year. Segment assets were up 51,800,000,000 yen reflecting the increase in lending as the bank focuses in merchant banking. As part of this business, ORIX Bank originates loans for corporate clients in priority areas such as renewable energy and logistic centers and then securitizes the assets into debt products and using the trust banking license and sell these products to investors. Please turn to Page 24, Aircraft and Ships.

Operator

Segment profit fell 5% year on year to JPY 16,100,000,000. In the SiP segment, profits were down year on year as the business aggressively sold SiP's Holdings last year taken advantage of the favorable pricing, but this is lining with projections. And the ship's prices remain high. And in this segment, we sold 4 vessels this fiscal year. Aircraft leasing, as I mentioned earlier, is enjoying healthy progress.

Operator

At Avalon, high US dollar interest rates has been a drag and the business was loss making on a cumulative basis in the 9 months. However, the operating environment is improving And it has been profitable for the 2 consecutive quarters in Q2 and Q3, even after the hedging costs. Segment assets were up JPY 123,200,000,000 versus the prior year end, reflecting the impact in FX and aircraft purchases. Next is Oiks USA on Page 26. Segment profits were down 16% year on year to JPY 27,800,000,000.

Operator

And the primary reason for this was fewer capital gains booked in the PE business. Meanwhile, the credit business saw earnings rise. We have strengthened risk management from early stage and become very selective with new deals and reining in been reining in credit costs despite elevated interest rates, while still enjoying higher financial earnings. Breakdown of profits by this line can be found on Page 27 of your handout for your reference later. Segment assets were down by JPY 10,800,000,000 versus prior year end.

Operator

Even after considering the impact of weaker yen, well, because we have been selective, While we cannot be overly optimistic owing to the lack of visibility concerning U. S. Markets, we continue to operate the business with an awareness that it might bottom out quite soon. Please turn to Page 28. This is ORIX Europe.

Operator

Segment profits fell 42% year on year to JPY 20,800,000,000. In the prior year and the year before, OCE booked performance fees of Higher than JPY 10,000,000,000, but because of the market situation, this shrank. And increase in hedging costs stemming from higher yield interest rates led to lower profits. OCE has launched developed and launched some active ETF this fiscal year and also is promoting efforts to cross sell financial products across different group companies. Please turn to Page 30.

Operator

Lastly, I would like to talk about the Asia and Australia segment. Segment profits were down 40% year on year, JPY 20,700,000,000 Although leasing and loans were growing in South Korea, Australia and Asia profits were lower year on year in the on the absence of the gain on sale of this Asian affiliate. Segment assets were up 163,400,000,000 yen versus prior year end, reflecting the impact of FX and new lease executions. Segment assets and overview of Asia is shown on Page 31 For your reference. And as the footnote says, ORIX's exposure to Taiwan through leasing and investments is as as JPY 70,000,000,000 accounting for just 4.4 percent of assets in this segment.

Operator

And In fiscal year 2024 March end, overall interest rates have remained higher for and longer than anticipated in Europe and America, And earnings growth overseas has suffered. Meanwhile, benefits from a weaker yen and strong inbound travel demand has helped domestic business profit trend above plan. We will concentrate on achieving our net income target of 330,000,000,000 yen fiscal year 2024 March end and then lay the foundation to reaching the fiscal year 2025 March end net profit target of 400,000,000,000 yen. That concludes my explanation about Q3. Thank you for your kind attention.

Speaker 1

Thank you. We are now ready for the Q and A session. So we have from Mizuho Securities, Sakamaki san. Over to you. I am Sakamaki from Mizuho Securities.

Speaker 1

I have one question to ask. So achieving the target for this year and also Planning for the increase of profit in the next year and also your plan for capital recycling, would you mind updating by referring to Page 8 of your slide? And there has not been any update from November, I believe. So any kind of outlook for the exit, the size, Any kind of changes that you have been experiencing from the time of the second quarter 2nd quarter results, if you could give us a flavor. Thank you very much for asking the question.

Speaker 1

So please refer to Page 38. As that's been said, so there has been no update, as you have mentioned. But currently, we are considering in the second half as well as in the first half of the next year, there has been no major changes. For this year, The capital recycling, that would allow us to exit some of the projects, the deals. So we are going to proceed with the deal by taking much of the time, so it will be a tail heavy this fiscal year.

Speaker 1

So therefore, with the deals that we are proceeding with, it is progressing just as scheduled. However, by end of March, At the closing of the fiscal period, in order to achieve that target, it doesn't mean to say that we'll be relaxing some of the terms and conditions In order to achieve the target, so we are proceeding with the negotiation in a very cautious manner with the buyer so that we'll be able to continue to build the profit in a steady manner. As for the Q3, the so BE for the fair estate, We did manage to exit some of the deals, but in the Q4 as well, we hope to proceed with the same. As for the next fiscal period, you have asked a question about the next fiscal period, which is within the scope of the next the plan, but there will be some changes in the macroeconomic conditions such as ForEx. So as for some of the deals that we have listed, so we would like to, of course, refer to the changes in the climate and continue to build up the profit.

Speaker 1

I'm sorry that I won't be able to share with you any specific numbers, but I hope this would answer to your question. Yes. Thank you so much.

Operator

S&P Sinico Securities, Muraki san. Please ask your question. Mr. Munaki, I have a question. JPY 400,000,000,000 for next year, I understand this is still being discussed.

Operator

And for this fiscal year, high interest rate is continuing and you're trying to offset the negative overseas with the domestic performance and the next year's direction. Maybe your assumption is that the direction will not change, About 400,000,000,000 yen this was already very high to begin with. And as you are discussing, What is the level of the base plan or the range or direction? Can you please maybe share more information about these things? Because I don't want to see a big surprise 3 months down the line.

Operator

At this point in time, can you please suggest the direction that the company is going to? Thank you. As you have mentioned, for this fiscal year, high interest rate means that we're struggling with overseas business and we're trying to offset that negative with a strong performance in Japan. That is true. And for next year, we do not believe that the interest rate would come down that easily outside of Japan.

Operator

We cannot really be that But if you think about U. S. Credit, for example, As we gain more visibility into how the risk is changing, we will try to assess the situation carefully and try to be active where we can. So we are actually talking about specific strategies as we plan for next year right now. On Page 10 of the handout.

Operator

And this is something that was already disclosed last time. And this is basically the launch pad for next fiscal year. And 400,000,000,000 yen is The target we are trying to aim for and this is the assumption of the plan. And then we will try to assess where we can see more room for growth we should not try too hard. And for each of the segment, we are discussing between the management, the segment head and negotiate these details.

Operator

Now Mr. Inoue has already spoken about the midterms direction. And JPY 300,000,000,000 should be like a stable level for ORIX and we should be able to aim for JPY 400,000,000,000 as well. But We want to do that without expanding the balance sheet too much. And this is why we want to do a combination of capital recycling approaches.

Operator

So this basic direction remains unchanged. And hopefully, this spring, we will not share any negative surprises with you. Thank you. As you have said, Bottoming out or maybe the change in the interest rate direction. In the United States, you are trying to shrink your credit portfolio and you're talking about that as well as investment in United States.

Operator

Is that correct? Yes, especially credit. Under the current interest Environment, real estate and mortgage business cannot be done very actively. But potentially, there is strength in these markets in the United States. So once the interest rate hike eases and once it starts to come down, then For example, housing development or bond issuance, maybe we can see some positive signs there.

Operator

And in terms of private equity or equity investment, midcap corporate We'll continue to struggle in terms of our performance. So for debt and equity, we believe that the flow is kind of frozen. We do not expect a sudden improvement there, but We will continue to work strongly what we have within our business portfolio right now. That's very clear. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you for the question. Next, we have Daiwa Securities, Mr. Watanabe. Over to you. Thank you.

Speaker 1

I am Watanabe from Daiwa Securities. I would like to ask one question and I'd like to refer to Page 44 and that is with regard to the capital policy. So the expression in fact has changed. So sustainable growth, but also at the same time growing ROE by efficient usage of their capital. Was there anything at the backdrop at the time of calculation, the buyback and also the DPS, any kind of idea to this Based on this page.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Well, just as you have mentioned, yes, we made a slight change In the expression, as I had mentioned at the very beginning, the inbound traveling, in fact, has been driving our growth. Therefore, the base profit has been growing and the segment profit, we are beginning to feel the positivity from those growth implications. So therefore, it is not that we will be dependent on the capital gain, but we would like to continue to invest in the base profit generation businesses that should lead us in improving our ROE. And also with regard to the capital policy that you have asked, So at the time of the benefit being kind of eliminated or dropped, We thought that there is some positivity in expanding the DTS going forward.

Speaker 1

So just has been asked by Muraki san earlier, The business plan in the discussion of business plan, inclusive of the BOD discussion, we would like to, of course, continue to discuss over this topic. However, PBR, onex and going beyond 1x, in fact, is Something that has to be endorsed by a solid equity story, but if you could give us a little more time for us to run at a final idea. But the shareholders' return is going to be expanded or is this the direction for this fiscal period? Well, recently, So in the capital market, the new NISA, for example, there has been a lot of discussion over the possible investment by the retail investors. So we would like to appeal to as broad shareholder base as much as possible.

Speaker 1

So on the basis of shareholders' return, So what would be the ideal capital policy based on this reaction that we may get from the shareholders?

Operator

Thank you very much. J. B. Morgan Securities, Sato san. Please ask your question.

Operator

Yes, I have a question. With regard to Asian business, are there any specific risks that you're aware of or focused on? Maybe it is not very serious, but From the Q1, I think there has been some In fact, I want to know which line and which region this is happening. And on Page 31, You are showing a more detailed breakdown of each country, especially in China and also Greater China for Equity Investment. Are you seeing some risks there?

Operator

In order to welcome the new fiscal year in a clean Wei, earlier you were talking about possible impairment in Q4, but should we account for that or not? Thank you. As you have mentioned, Asia and Australia area has ex China, Asia and also Greater China. And there are some discrepancies, External Asia, Australia, South Korea and India. This is where we have our strengths like lease and also finance related to real estate, this is where we see business opportunities.

Operator

So we will continue to maintain our businesses there. And Possible challenges would include, as you can see on Page 31, and the message that I wanted to leave on this page was, example, number 4, Hong Kong, finance and also banking business. And in terms of Credit, the market is not really improving. It is actually worsening. So we are Evaluating our assets, and this is resulting in the current credit allowance.

Operator

So we are Trying to be strict with risk definition, we are being extremely cautious. And as you can see in Section 2, Lease for general business, especially for China domestic market, lease customers' credit status has to be, of course, assessed very carefully, but we do have assets. So we believe that we can continue this business. And the third point is, as you have mentioned, as far as equity investments are concerned, We need to be very risk sensitive, and we are. China related investment in its demand is actually decreasing overseas.

Operator

And also, Chinese domestic investors are becoming more selective about what investments are We do not believe that the situation will improve quickly just this year or next year. So Equity investments will not be added newly in this sense. We will maintain the current investees. And if there are additional inquiries, maybe we will pursue opportunities to sell more actively. Now for each quarter, we are reviewing the assets, of course, on a regular basis.

Operator

But Policy of holding these assets and also future business policy will have to be looked at so that we can make the correct judgment there. And in the business plan, within the strategy for Greater China, we will be discussing this and The sort of discussion will impact what we do, but anyway, we are trying to formulate the policy right now. So that's about Asia and China. I hope that answers your question. That was very clear.

Operator

Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Thank you for the question. Nomura Securities, Mr. Sasaki, over to you. I am Sasaki from Namya Securities. I have one question.

Speaker 1

The 3rd quarter results the earnings results, I have a question about. So 100 and 1,400,000,000 yen It is pretty sharp. But where this increase of the profit comes from, If you could explain on a year over year basis or quarter on quarter basis, especially the increase on the base profit, if you could be so kind enough to give us further details. And as to the numbers, The base profit roughly about JPY 100,000,000,000 and you may have further room to improve this further. And also, you Yinta explained to us that there are a number of PE that you may perhaps be able to exit and thereby generate investment gains, so segment the profit of JPY 30,000,000,000 or so.

Speaker 1

Would this be maintained in the coming year, which means that the JPY 100,000,000,000 is Achievable. So if you could be so kind enough to explain this. Thank you. So first of all, so relatively speaking, From the Q1 to the Q4, what is driving the quarterly so it is the corporate finance and also The leasing and insurance, so in a steady manner. The 3rd quarter, what has improved more?

Speaker 1

So in the PE investment, the new investments such as DHC and also Toshiba mezzanine loan extension, in fact has contributed to the base profit generation or increase in the base profit. And also, environment and energy in the 3rd quarter, So we did manage to generate some positive result. And in the Q3 and the 4th quarter, Especially in the overseas location, things were slowing down somewhere in the first and the second quarter. However, We felt that things had somehow started to show some signs of bottoming out. So at least bottoming.

Speaker 1

So this is why there has been some improvement in the 3rd quarter. So these have contributed to KRW 101.4 billion, out of which 10,000,000,000 is improvement in domestic market, 5,000,000,000 yen in the overseas businesses. So I think that's a rough Split, it is not a detailed number as such, but this is my understanding. And as for the Q4, unfortunately, Especially in the renewable energy related, there is a seasonal factor, especially during winter, The solar power and also green coal in India, there would be a seasonal negative factor that we would have to experience. So this is why in the Q4, so whether it would go exceed RMB 101,400,000,000, So after this seasonal factor being incorporated, we So in any case, we want to, of course, achieve what we aspire to achieve, but still, these are some of the negative factors that we have to foresee.

Speaker 1

Well, in that case, in the 3rd quarter, JPY 101,400,000,000, the base profit was generated. And of course, there will be some seasonal factor that you will be experiencing in the 4th quarter, which means that there will be a decline in the profit. But DHC and the Toshiba benzene loan Profit generation may perhaps contribute to the full year result in the next year. And if the overseas businesses starts to kind of bottom out, then the ORIX Bank's Spread may perhaps improve as well. So do you think that we can remain to be optimistic?

Speaker 1

And if that is true, I don't know, but on a quarterly basis, you'll be able to generate JPY 100,000,000,000 worth of base profit And JPY 130,000,000,000 which means that you may be able to achieve this JPY 400,000,000,000 for the full year. Do you think it is too early for you to conclude Your profit generation to 400,000,000,000 yen to that extent already, well, from this is something that we are already kind of communicating to each and every headquarters, but of course, they would have to work on the bottom up in arriving at those numbers by different divisions and sectors and segments. So this is why in this policy and direction of ours, We should not, of course, miss out on the timing, the opportunity. And also with the base profit, we hope to achieve JPY 100,000,000,000 and or even more every quarter and top it up with investment gains so that we'll be able to achieve JPY 100,000,000,000 well JPY 4 100,000,000,000 yen for the whole year. So although it was a planned number, but we are exerting much of the effort in achieving this goal of ours.

Speaker 1

So if you could understand. Thank you very much. Well, I'm very sorry for this, but I just want to follow-up. There was a question by Daiwa Securities. There's one clarification that I require.

Speaker 1

So payout ratio of 33%. So there is Are there any kind of headroom to this 33% payout ratio? With regard to the shareholders' return, you want to broaden the shareholder space. And so you are considering to make some changes in the shareholders' return in order to broaden the shareholders' base. So payout ratio of 32%.

Speaker 1

We're not thinking about the direction in lowering this payout ratio for sure, because Referring to the payout ratio of many of the listed companies and other financial companies and also trade companies, We have been studying those peers examples and also we have dropped this benefit that I've provided to the shareholders. So therefore, I would like to maintain this payout ratio at the current level, and we would think about The possibility to even increasing this or heightening it. So you would be considering that otherwise the shareholders would not be interested in investing in your shares. Exactly. So which means, of course, we would have to it would be indispensable.

Speaker 1

It will be quite necessary for us to increase the profit so that EPS can be grown and so coupled with, In other words, the profit growth and at the time when Direct Security has asked the question. So efficient capital management and also coupled with, of course, growing profit and therefore achieving ROE goal as well as achieving PVR of more than one time. Thank you very much for that. I'm sorry that I have added some questions. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. SPEAR Securities, Otsuka san, please ask your question. I'm looking at Page 9. And on the far right, full year target is shown. And there's 800,000,000 for maintenance and For insurance, there's some other number, JPY 52,000,000,000 for real estate.

Operator

If this Would you be making some adjustments or updates in the Q3? Maybe if you do that, that would be easier For people like us from outside to understand. So my question is, at the Board meeting level, Have you discussed this? Are you discussing this? Please let me know.

Operator

And based on that Discussion, was this disclosure authorized or was it not discussed at all at the BOD? That's my question. Thank you. Thank you very much. On Page 9, we have the full year target.

Operator

And this has not been changed from the beginning of the term. As the items reported to BOD and discussed, we always use the latest forecast to assess The probability of achievement of the plan and the business overview. When it comes to disclosure, According to the 10 segments or the 4 categories, if we try to show the latest forecast, The assumptions may be different, and it would be very confusing as to what we're aiming for. So As far as the disclosure goes, we are still using the same number as we did in the beginning of the year. We explained that there is maybe A bit of a long way to go, but on the ground, we are trying to control the risk, but also trying to expand the profit as well.

Operator

So in terms of business control or business direction, the overall target has not really changed. And wherever we see more likelihood of success, we are trying to increase the amount of profit coming from that specific segment and the management and the people on the ground communicating with each other in that manner. Will continue to disclose the target as we have done so far. I'm sorry, I'm confused. You didn't change it, but from the outside perspective, this is very difficult to understand.

Operator

There is no visibility into the achievability of these targets if you don't update them. I understand that we do see some upsides or downsides to these numbers and we can communicate those upsides and downsides. But for particular segment, if we Inform you of the latest updates, it would be misleading. That's our understanding. But we will try to provide as much color as possible through our communication.

Operator

Well, this is my opinion, but maybe you can provide a range or write something in the document so that we can understand it better. I see your point, and we will discuss what can be done. So maybe even as I'm talking about segment, we're talking about 4 buckets here. And Especially in the Q3, as we get closer to the end of the year, maybe there are more information that we can share with you somehow. So we will try to discuss the possibility of doing that.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Thank you for the question. So from Bank of America, Yaginuma san, please. Yes, I am Yanomao. Can you hear my voice okay?

Speaker 1

Yes, we can. So alternative investment, the asset manager In Europe as well as United States from January through to March in 20 24 fundraising and exit, a number of companies that are turning positive. So from your perspective, this capital recycling environment, how do you perceive this? Do you think that it has bottomed out and thereby You are beginning to turn slightly more bullish than before. And the direction, is there if there was any changes from the last quarterly results briefing session.

Speaker 1

So U. S. Alternative fund, there has been a comment of the signs of bottoming out. So there has been a message, a positive message being incorporated. So the main battlefield of infrastructure or renewable energy, the sizable deals, In fact, those kinds of opportunities may start to emerge earlier than before.

Speaker 1

So the mid cap, However, the timing wise from the business earnings perspective, it may take a little more time for the mid caps. And in addition to that, our U. S. Operations, so far as the U. S.

Speaker 1

Operation is concerned, your estate as well as mortgage business In those areas, especially the housing related, because of the long term interest rate, we do foresee that beginning to come down that may work out to be positive as well, which means that they would we have no major concern as to further deterioration. Of course, we would continue to control the credit risk. But in the next year's plan, we would start to sort of see Some positive kind of move towards exploring new investment, so that The sourcing capabilities as order stands may perhaps be there could be a shift from where we haven't changed it yet, But there could be a possibility of our stance turning from defensive to maybe slightly offensive. So things are Beginning to show some signs of moving to the positive zone. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yuvi

Operator

Securities, Okada san. Please ask your question. U. S. 3 Businesses.

Operator

I would like to understand the business environment, starting with credit. Asset is slightly increasing and profit is also growing. By asset class, is there a asset class that you have some credit concerns. I understand there is no CRE exposure, but what about the other asset classes? Private Equity exit.

Operator

Alternative investment was just mentioned, but the private equity exit environment, Right now, maybe the well, in the past, maybe the price was not satisfactory. But is it improving? And also the profit momentum of real has not really recovered. MBS issuance has to recover. Otherwise, ORIX on its own cannot really recover the profit level.

Operator

Is that the correct understanding? Thank you for your questions. Please turn to Page 27, Credit. As you have mentioned, We are increasing the asset slightly and also the profit is up. Main drivers, thanks for the following.

Operator

Investment grade AAA class yield and spread has tightened somewhat more recently, but We believe that this is a level at which we can consider investment. So we are pushing forward with that to some extent, And it has some positive impact. But we need to pay close attention to asset quality, which means that investment grade that is easier for us to assess or review is mostly targeted. And our concerns would be for relatively high risk portion, Asset management or servicing kind of capability would be needed, which means that in the credit segment, we don't go after big risks and also early stage growth names. Still Too early to look at it as credit, but the market investors Already tapping into that, expecting recovery in the future.

Operator

So We will be taking a look at asset classes in very detail. CBS, yes, we are owning that as part of investment to some extent. But these are not really plain vanilla office type thing. We are actually investing into various assets. So High CRE or investment or loans, we don't really have those so much.

Operator

As far as the business stage goes, Agency is seeing a recovery trend and also long term interest rate is going down, which means that housing starts will increase. Inflation is also a factor. Origination environment We'll have to recover

Speaker 1

a little bit

Operator

more until we strengthen our efforts again. We have done some restructuring and some and some efforts, but we will cautiously look at this market. And the Human Resource and Platform in this segment is also a focus. As far as PE investment is concerned, of course, price is important, but funding of the buyer is one of the challenges. In mid cap, especially regional banks in the U.

Operator

S, their lending appetite has not really recovered fully or sufficiently. And the buyers that would be interested in our portfolio are still waiting for that improvement before they start negotiating. And of course, we are carefully monitoring the movement of different companies. And interest rate hike is affecting our performance. So we need to see performance improvement in portfolio companies and the buyers need to have sufficient fund and those would be the catalysts for this business.

Operator

Thank you very much for very detailed explanation. Thank you for

Speaker 1

the question. So the time is almost up. So the next question is going to be the last question. Niwa san of Citi Securities. Over to you.

Speaker 1

Thank you very much. I am Niwa from Citi. ORIX Europe. Can you hear my voice? I'd like to ask a question about ORIX Europe.

Speaker 1

So AUM is expanding in ORIX Europe. However, inflow of the money, in fact, has not been Solid. So although you are generating the profit, but it looks as if things are pretty tough. So what is your takeaway of the business in actuality? So there seems to be a Stability of the businesses and profitability may be high.

Speaker 1

However, in the next year and also for the mid term, Going over and beyond JPY 40,000,000,000 and becoming a driver of your growth, I cannot have Confidence in ORIX Europe's businesses going forward. I know that you're working on the capital recycling, but what is your understanding of this segment? So this is my question. Thank you. Thank you for the question.

Speaker 1

So well, there was a question from Otsuka san as well. So these overseas segment vis a vis our target and the progress that we have made so far, so there seems to be a difficulty in achieving our full year target at this point in time. So ORIX Europe, the biggest driver, in fact, is the hedge cost. Euro denominated funding cost, in other words, Unfortunately, it is a dragger. It is a negative aspect.

Speaker 1

So Robeco and others, So it is slightly away from the performance of Robeco, for example. So Internally, it is our policy for AUM, as a matter of fact, but the full hedge They're making use of ForEx forward ForEx and making the issuance of the corporate bond, for example, So that will be a little more accurate in terms of our financing finance management. And also AUM of Robico, for Because of the market recovery, the business conditions are improving slightly, but the asset management businesses As a whole, the firm expanding and also the fee level competition, Structurally, the competition is getting harsher. So in order for us to make up for these negative factors, we may have to introduce new products And also from mutual fund to ETF, in other words, a trend shift just like it has been the case in United States. So I think we would have to apply some ingenuity to the business operations.

Speaker 1

But at any rate, if it was not for the hedge cost, The investment return for us has been positively contributing to the overall business performance. So therefore, to the interest rate, as well as euro, we would have to foresee how the trend is going to be going forward. That would be That would determine our strategy going forward. That's all. That concludes

Operator

the That concludes the Q and A session and final word from Yemura san. Thank you. I wasn't ready for this, but as I said before, for this fiscal year, We're struggling overseas, but it's been offset by good performance in Japan. And we will continue to complete the projects that we're working on. And by doing so, we want to achieve the target that we have disclosed.

Operator

And we will have deep discussion about what to do for the next fiscal year. And at the year end earnings announcement, We are hoping to share with you our future direction. Thank you very much for taking time out of your busy schedule, and sorry about going over the scheduled time. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

And that concludes the Q3 consolidated financial results for the 9 months ended December 31, 20

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Earnings Conference Call
ORIX Q3 2024
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